TAKING STOCK

On days like this one, when impossible trades are thrown around as ideas and we dream they could be true, perhaps it’s important to go back and review what we know, what we think we know, and what we THINK we think we know.

HARD NUMBERS, HARD CANDY

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 2-4-0

The Oilers would end November one year ago with six wins and 4 ties in 23 games. Currently, the team has six wins and no ties in 18 games. It would be insane to suggest there’s real progress in the standings, because 30 is a number but it isn’t a good one. Let’s check the ‘other math’ and see what swings.

  • Corsi For 5×5 %: 48.5 (No.21) compared to 48.1 (No. 24) last season.
  • GF per 60 5×5: 2.10 (No. 17) compared to 1.93 (No. 26) last season.
  • GA per 60 5×5: 3.01 (No. 29) compared to 2.91 (No. 30) last season.
  • Shots-for per 60 5×5: 26.6 (No. 24) compared to 27.2 (No. 26) last season.
  • Shots-against per 60 5×5: 29.8 (No. 22) compared to 29.6 (No. 21) last season.
  • Shooting percentage 5×5: 7.92 (No. 13) compared to 7.10 (No. 26) last season.
  • Save percentage 5×5: .8988 (No. 28) compared to .9019 (No. 30) last season.

What does that tell us? Offensively, the Oilers are slightly better than one year ago 5×5. They’re scoring more (it would work out to about 14 more 5×5 goals over last season) and the shooting percentage is up (shots down, you need more shots, or at least I think you do).

Defensively, the Oilers are giving up more goals per 60 (it would work out to about 9 more goals this year) although the shots against are identical year over year. As you might guess, the save percentage is worse than last season and the Oilers are into the elevator shaft and watching the floors go by.

All that said, it all comes down to 6-12-0 and if it’s 6-14-0 at the end of next week you can spend the winter helping me spell Chychrun. However, before we fall into the long nightmare, let’s spend a few minutes with our friend from the RE series and check the temperature.

  1. I see it’s going as you predicted! Well, not quite. Long season though, one hopes the bad luck injuries end, and we need to get some goaltending. There’s plenty to be gained this winter by this organization.
  2. Boy you can sling it like mad. Did you win a seat in the election?!!?!? Look, I thought the goaltending would be better and the defense tighter. I guessed Edmonton would score more and allow fewer, and we’re 18 games in and things aren’t going as planned. Long road, plenty of blacktop.
  3. You projected GOBS of offense! AND you promised us whores! Well, I’ve never promised whores, that would be illegal. I pegged Edmonton’s offense at 2.80/game, they are currently at 2.61/game. That isn’t tragically bad, and if you consider McDavid, Eberle and one Nugeless night it’s a prediction one can defend.
  4. That’s not bad, actually. Okay, but you blew the GA! You always do! You’re so BAD!!!!! I projected Edmonton’s GA at 2.73/60. The team is currently at 3.22/game and that’s bad. If this continues, the Oilers will allow more than 260 goals. Still better than last season, but a terrible failure by management.
  5. Who is to blame? Well, I think a lot of the trouble comes from the diabolical D, which combined with the goaling has me ordering Murder, She Wrote DVD’s by the ton. Craig MacTavish and Scott Howson have some explaining to do in regard to Nikita Nikitin. That’s beyond a misfire. I don’t know how the new GM went about his business, but at some point they must have decided not to buy out Nikitin and one imagines someone stood up for him in the big meeting. That doesn’t look really good today.
  6. The goaltending bet is all Chiarelli!!! Sure, but I’m at a bit of a loss about why people are so quick to sewer Talbot. It doesn’t make any sense. He played well in New York, will probably (as Devan Dubnyk did) regain his career elsewhere, but at some point I think Edmonton is going to need to give him a chance to establish himself. Not now, mind you. He’s a wobbly G, they’ll need Nilsson to run with the starting job for the next while—maybe even call up Laurent Brossoit.
  7. Why not make a trade? Chiarelli may in fact make a deal, but Nilsson has a .907EV SP currently and I’d run with him for this week to see if he can save the day. I do agree that at some point the club may have to make a deal, but I go back to the Talbot bet.
  8. Screw it! He’s trash!!! How many times do you have to go through this, before maybe it’s something else? The problem in life is that you develop a past and the Oilers are death valley for goalies. No sir. Stand and deliver, there’s not one damn thing wrong with this young man. He may not be an NHL starter, but he didn’t get Shell shock until he put on the orange and blue. We have met the enemy—it’s us! Pretty soon, mamas aren’t going to let their kids get on the plane to come here!
  9. You’re on dope. Look, Cam Talbot is not playing well, he looks a fright. Why? Let’s find out! Can we not review last year’s video and see what has changed? Perhaps a quick trip to Bakersfield for a conditioning stint? Hypnosis? Kreskin? Reveen? You can’t just call dial-a-goalie.
  10. Why can’t we have Calgary’s goalies? You’re joking, right?
  11. Okay, what should they do? The Oilers should add another veteran defender—remember when we talked about why the balance photo wouldn’t be seen this year?—then send Griffin Reinhart to the minors (you could send Davidson instead, but he’s shown well enough to stay imo). They should run Nilsson as the starter, with Talbot getting some games along the way, too. The Oilers are 6-12-0, but if they get the goaltending figured out (which may take a trade, I concede) and play their experienced defense set (with the new man), they could drive toward .500 and that’s due north. Hell, when McDavid returns, if they’re tighter in shot suppression and stopping more shots, maybe they go 12-6-0.
  12. I take it back. It’s not dope. You’re crazy. And scene.

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176 Responses to "TAKING STOCK"

  1. ruotsalainen says:

    The ‘Friend” from the Re: series is the best. I look forward to him every year!

  2. pocession charge says:

    Is Bag of Pucks trying to trade the Nuge again? Oh the humanity!

  3. LadiesloveSmid says:

    If the pick is Chychrun, he can probably step in next year. Thought the blue is already REALLY young.

    If the pick isn’t Chychrun, trade it for a D. Jones, Dumba, Spurgeon, Ellis, Larsson, Severson.

    NYR or WSH cap strapped enough to trade McDonagh or Carlson?

  4. Derek says:

    I’d unchain Griff from Gryba for a game or two before sending him down, I realize that probably means an all rookie third pairing but I can’t recall them ever playing Davidson and Reinhart together to this point and Gryba seems to make a lot of rookie mistakes.

  5. GCW_69 says:

    I posted this before, but if we are taking stock, we should consider situational play, so I am going to post it again.

    Up by one goal, the Oilers are 29th with CF% of 38.2 (Eakins 39.9, Nelson 43.9). Tied, they are 28th at 45.5% (Eakins 51.2, Nelson 43.9). Down one the Oilers are 23rd, at 52.4% (Eakins 53.6, Nelson 52.9). No hope there at all, and these are the game situations that matter most.

    Up by two goals, the Oilers are 10th at 46.2% (up 2 or more: Eakins 36.3, Nelson 41.1) and up three they are third in the league at 51.1%, meaning they are drastically better at protecting a big lead than last year, and one of the best in the NHL.

    Down two they are 8th at 59% (Down 2 or more: Eakins 54.7, Nelson 53.0), and down three they are fourth at 77.1%, meaning the Oilers ride score effects hard. Down two and three they are better than last year.

    Conclusion, the Oilers are still horrible when the game matters, but have mastered garbage time and their overall stats are being propped up by the garbage time stats.

    Note, last year puck on net used down or up 2 or more, while this year they have separated down or up 2 from down or up three or more.

    Stats from Puck on Net

  6. Lowetide says:

    GCW: I think biggest difference so far is 5×4. Edmonton is 12-0 this season they were 38-7 last season.

  7. D says:

    LT – to directly address the reason why I (like many) are so quick to sewer Talbot. The goals he let in (Calgary, Los Angeles) that cost the Oilers legitimate points had little to do with the defense. Those goals were straight-up bad goaltending. Average and below average goaltenders can look like Vezina candidates when they play for Los Angeles and New York. When a legitimate starter like Price or Quick come to Edmonton and blow games, then I’ll finger the defense. Until then, Talbot wears it.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    D,

    sunk 63rd pick into Scrivens

    58th and 79th into Talbot

    If Brossoit turns out we call it even, right?!

  9. Lowetide says:

    D:
    LT – to directly address the reason why I (like many) are so quick to sewer Talbot. The goals he let in (Calgary, Los Angeles) that cost the Oilers legitimate points had little to do with the defense.Those goals were straight-up bad goaltending.Average and below average goaltenders can look like Vezina candidates when they play for Los Angeles and New York.When a legitimate starter like Price or Quick come to Edmonton and blow games, then I’ll finger the defense.Until then, Talbot wears it.

    Hmmm. So, great goalies don’t let in bad goals? Good to know.

  10. D says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    D,

    sunk 63rd pick into Scrivens

    58th and 79th into Talbot

    If Brossoit turns out we call it even, right?!

    Yes sir. We’ll call it even. I’m counting on Brossoit to come in and stabilize the crease.

  11. D says:

    Lowetide: Hmmm. So, great goalies don’t let in bad goals? Good to know.

    Absolutely, LT. For example, Grant Fuhr somewhat also helped the Steve Smith goal in 1986 by slowly returning to the net rather than speeding back. But Talbot has not established himself as a great goalie. When he has a statistically relevant sample size of great goaltending, mistakes like Calgary and Los Angeles can be evaluated in that light. But until then, he is a 0.89 GAA below-average goalie who cost the Oilers points in two important games.

  12. spoiler says:

    LT,

    Are the last year stats telling us to-this-point last year or the whole of last year?

    I think for this team to have success this year, it needs to make hay while on its special teams. I think that’s a worthy comparison to last year too. Just because we’re going to need them to be better.

    We’ve had a lot of coin flip situations go against us it seems this year… the called-back goals perhaps being the best example. Good teams can recover from those bad bounces, etc, more often than not (but not always). The Oilers aren’t there yet, but we don’t see the same level of pants-on-tire-fire panic that we used to see regularly.

    And we’ve laid some real stinkers effortwise, especially if we’re including starts. Good teams keep those to a minimum.

    I think those starts are more mental with this team… confidence and belief issues rather than “they are easing themselves Into the game” issues. I think the spirit is there.

    Similar to the starts, I think Talbot’s issue is confidence. He’s had a couple of low percentage goals get through him, that maybe don’t if tried another 100 times and it’s in his head, combined with the pressure of supposedly being the go-to guy.

    Talbot’s basic skills, what got him to this level, and what drove his performance last year, have not disappeared. An argument could be made that we don’t have the right coaching to correct his problems, but the Oil did change the goalie coach last year so aren’t exactly immobile on this issue.

    I think McLellan is a smart guy when it comes to dealing with player confidence, smarter than MacT who was adamant it was always all on the player. To my eye, we are seeing bigger and bigger glimpses of playing the right way from these guys, and less fragility than the past. LA was a treat to watch at times.

    Injury has been a big story, and the schedule has been brutal. I don’t think there’s a team out there who could have dropped the equivalent and not dropped a game or two from the injuries against those teams.

    The year-over-year numbers at EVs… look pretty even, lol, but I think we’re actually ahead of the game and a couple of goals otherwise, or a smaller medical bill, etc, would have us talking that way, regardless of defense issues.

    The bottom 6 offense concerns me more than the defense to tell you the truth. The defence is just young and inexperienced. It will improve. But there’s a lot of older in the bottom 6 doing nothing.

    Zone exits and entries look like they’re still the biggest issues, although exits seem slightly improved to my eye. Especially the use of the trailing forward behind the defense when coming out of our own zone against the trap. When they do get set up in the other zone, they rack up the shot attempts, especially it seems on the powerplay, and that’s a breath of relief from a team that used to rely heavily on the rush to score.

    I’m content so far, not elated, but okay with where they’re that. I look forward to the schedule lightening a little, bounces and calls to even up, injuries to return, more sorties flown to see where this team goes from here.

    They can very easily fall apart again, and it is TMac’s challenge to make sure it doesn’t, but I’m not going to let that be a thing until it is a thing. Right now my faith lies in the coach.

    The development of Draisaitl is also a real plus to the season thus far. What a pleasant surprise. Hall, Drai, Nuge, McDavid in the line up at the same time… I can’t wait!

  13. blainer says:

    pocession charge:
    Is Bag of Pucks trying to trade the Nuge again?Oh the humanity!

    Yes for a rookie D with draft Pedigree.. like we need another one of those ..and a vet we can’t afford to resign.. So basically Nuge for Hanifan..

    That could be a trade similar to if we traded Nuge for Reinhart in his draft plus one draft.

    If we are trading Nuge it better be for Doughty.

    I want that RT shot D vet.

    I also could use 50 million in cash.. What are the odds..

  14. Bruce McCurdy says:

    GCW_69: up three they are third in the league at 51.1%

    I’m trying to remember “Oilers up by three” and all I can come up with is part of a period in Calgary and a few minutes vs. Detroit and, errr, uhhhh, my memory must be failing me.

    What, 15 or 20 minutes total? And in both cases despite the OK Corsi they did give up the next goal to allow the other guys a breath of life.

    It’s just such a tiny sample to mean anything. Whereas “down by two” at least has a little heft to the sample. 🙁

  15. Sevenseven says:

    I wonder what Klefbom plus plus would get the oilers? I hated seeing Brewer go, but that return led the Oilers to the cup. Imagine Nurse with a legit #1 rhd to help him into the league. 28/60 minutes a night handled well for the oilers makes everyone on the roster look a lot better.

  16. Bruce McCurdy says:

    GCW_69: Up by one goal, the Oilers are 29th with CF% of 38.2 (Eakins 39.9, Nelson 43.9). Tied, they are 28th at 45.5% (Eakins 51.2, Nelson 43.9). Down one the Oilers are 23rd, at 52.4% (Eakins 53.6, Nelson 52.9). No hope there at all, and these are the game situations that matter most.

    No quibbling there, you are bang on the mark and these would also be the situations that would happen most often / longest clock time. That is a dire set of numbers right there. Consider it this way, the “PDO” type stat of summing down by 1 and up by 1 — equal and opposite game states — adds up to a sorry 90.6%.

  17. Lowetide says:

    D: Absolutely, LT.For example, Grant Fuhr somewhat also helpedthe Steve Smith goal in 1986 by slowly returning to the net rather than speeding back. But Talbot has not established himself as a great goalie.When he has a statistically relevant sample size of great goaltending, mistakes like Calgary and Los Angeles can be evaluated in that light.But until then, he is a 0.89 GAA below-average goalie who cost the Oilers points in two important games.

    You’re going to chase it forever, D. Dubnyk was a perfectly good goalie, sent him away because he folded like a cheap suit. And we’ve been doing it since. At what point do we stop turning the gun on the goalie and place the sights elsewhere? That’s my point. Talbot has been awful. How did he get there? If they have to flush Talbot, at the very least find out why.

    If only so we’ll know what’s about to go wrong when they hire the next guy.

  18. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide:
    GCW: I think biggest difference so far is 5×4. Edmonton is 12-0 this season they were 38-7 last season.

    Yes, that helps. I have been looking at EV time only, because I think that’s where sustainable improvement comes from. It’s a pretty depressing picture so far.

  19. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: Yes, that helps. I have been looking at EV time only, because I think that’s where sustainable improvement comes from.It’s a pretty depressing picture so far.

    I agree. Same reason I’ve been mining 5×5. It’s the big part of the game.

  20. GCW_69 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m trying to remember “Oilers up by three” and all I can come up with is part of a period in Calgary and a few minutes vs. Detroit and, errr, uhhhh, my memory must be failing me.

    What, 15 or 20 minutes total? And in both cases despite the OK Corsi they did give up the next goal to allow the other guys a breath of life.

    It’s just such a tiny sample to mean anything. Whereas “down by two” at least has a little heft to the sample.

    Last year Puck on Net included ice time for each situation, but this year they dropped TOI. TOI by situation is also informative but I can’t track it this year.

  21. Bruce McCurdy says:

    spoiler: We’ve had a lot of coin flip situations go against us it seems this year… the called-back goals perhaps being the best example.

    Except when Oilers did get a call, against Pittsburgh, it got forgotten because the Penguins won anyway. Over time the calls will even out but losing teams are more apt to remember the ones that went against them. And if your team loses a lot, it will seem unbalanced.

    I know this from years of whining about injustices real and imagined.

  22. D says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide: You’re going to chase it forever, D. Dubnyk was a perfectly good goalie, sent him away because he folded like a cheap suit. And we’ve been doing it since. At what point do we stop turning the gun on the goalie and place the sights elsewhere? That’s my point. Talbot has been awful. How did he get there? If they have to flush Talbot, at the very least find out why.

    If only so we’ll know what’s about to go wrong when they hire the next guy.

    Aha – I get what you’re saying now LT and I absolutely agree. Yours is a very nuanced argument, but correct – we need to diagnose the issue that causes goalies like Talbot and Dubnyk to be awful here in Edmonton and not elsewhere like New York and Minnesota. So from that perspective, the game winning goals that Calgary and Los Angeles scored, in isolation, look bad on Talbot. But in the overall picture, the cumulative effect of having to stand on his head for lengthy stretches during each game may have culminated in a brief lapse that resulted in apparently poor goals.

  23. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: At what point do we stop turning the gun on the goalie and place the sights elsewhere?

    YEAH! Surely it’s time to fire the damn coach already??

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    blainer: Yes for a rookieD with draft Pedigree.. like we need another one of those ..and a vet we can’t afford to resign.. So basically Nuge for Hanifan..

    That could be a trade similar to if we traded Nuge for Reinhart in his draft plus one draft.

    If we are trading Nuge it better be for Doughty.

    I want that RT shot D vet.

    I also could use 50 million in cash.. What are the odds..

    Well, that’s one way of looking at it.

    Or, you could look at it like this:

    Hanifan – Best D available in an historically deep draft (this is a player with far more offensive upside than Griffin Reinhart)
    RNH – 1OV in a weak draft. At a position the Oil have depth.

    Let’s say for the sake of argument CAR gets the better of the above deal.

    Now Schultz for Staal.
    Schultz – poor value contract, one dimensional player, defensively weak, youngish
    Staal – likely poor value contract, one dimensional scorer, defensively weak, oldish

    The difference is Staal is a known quantity and does produce points as a C. Schultz could very well have negative value soon should he fail to progress defensively. As a PP QB, he is a disappointment.

    Spezza, disappointment in OTT as 1C (debatable). Excellent compliment in DAL as vet 2C. After being traded to DAL as a pending UFA, Spezza signs long term at $7.5mil per. Staal could enjoy a similar Renaissance with the Oil and the verbal is players will sign here as FAs to play on a team with McDavid. Resigning him is not out of the question.

    Staal @ $8.5 mil Hanifan @ $1.5 mil = RNH @ $6mil Schultz @ $4mil

    For me Hanifan is a massive upgrade over Schultz, fits the core, and gives you that potential elite top pairing D. If you can resign Staal (ala Spezza) you fill the hole at C you created trading Nuge. And everything changes when McDavid comes off his ELC, which is likely when the Oil will have to deal one of RNH, Hall or Eberle regardless.

    Btw, no GM in the league trades Doughty for Nuge. If that’s your line in the sand, you’re equating RNH to Jonathan Toews.

  25. admiralmark says:

    We started the year with Ference, Nikitin, and Schultz + 2 rookie D in the lineup. And somebody is wondering what went wrong? This D group was destined to keep the Oilers out of the playoffs… Knowing how much better the offence would be. With McDavid and Eberle going down and Talbot pulling a Scrivens… We are on target for a Bottom 5 finish. This should be surprising to nobody with the exception of MacT and Howson.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: YEAH! Surely it’s time to fire the damn coach already??

    McLellan stays. 🙂

  27. norm_klassen says:

    Never trade a good center signed long term wow

  28. sliderule says:

    I see bad plays by Reinhart,Nurse Davidson and Klefbom .

    They are all rookies and we should expect that.

    I look for the good plays like Reinhart one on one taking the puck away and chipping it up to start the play on Hall’s tieing goal.

    I haven’t heard any mention about his small but important contribution.

    These young players should have been here when we started the rebuild no one.

    No matter they are excellent prospects at the start of Connor rebuild and will payoff our patience.

  29. marty62 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Well, that’s one way of looking at it.

    Or, you could look at it like this:

    Hanifan – Best D available in an historically deep draft (this is a player with far more offensive upside than Griffin Reinhart)
    RNH – 1OV in a weak draft. At a position the Oil have depth.

    Oilers Deep with scoring 2 way centers? yeah I guess that is what McDavids injury has shown us…how deep we are at center….. wow and how is another 18 year old Dman who wont be ready to be a number 1 Dman for probably 3 or 4 years going to help us out of this situaton?

  30. Johnny skid says:

    spoiler:
    LT,

    Are the last year stats telling us to-this-point last year or the whole of last year?

    I think for this team to have success this year, it needs to make hay while on its special teams.I think that’s a worthy comparison to last year too.Just because we’re going to need them to be better.

    We’ve had a lot of coin flip situations go against us it seems this year… the called-back goals perhaps being the best example.Good teams can recover from those bad bounces, etc, more often than not (but not always).The Oilers aren’t there yet, but we don’t see the same level of pants-on-tire-fire panic that we used to see regularly.

    And we’ve laid some real stinkers effortwise, especially if we’re including starts.Good teams keep those to a minimum.

    I think those starts are more mental with this team… confidence and belief issues rather than “they are easing themselves Into the game” issues.I think the spirit is there.

    Similar to the starts, I think Talbot’s issue is confidence.He’s had a couple of low percentage goals get through him, that maybe don’t if tried another 100 times and it’s in his head, combined with the pressure of supposedly being the go-to guy.

    Talbot’s basic skills, what got him to this level, and what drove his performance last year, have not disappeared.An argument could be made that we don’t have the right coaching to correct his problems, but the Oil did change the goalie coach last year so aren’t exactly immobile on this issue.

    I think McLellan is a smart guy when it comes to dealing with player confidence, smarter than MacT who was adamant it was always all on the player.To my eye, we are seeing bigger and bigger glimpses of playing the right way from these guys, and less fragility than the past.LA was a treat to watch at times.

    Injury has been a big story, and the schedule has been brutal.I don’t think there’s a team out there who could have dropped the equivalent and not dropped a game or two from the injuries against those teams.

    The year-over-year numbers at EVs… look pretty even, lol, but I think we’re actually ahead of the game and a couple of goals otherwise, or a smaller medical bill, etc, would have us talking that way, regardless of defense issues.

    The bottom 6 offense concerns me more than the defense to tell you the truth.The defence is just young and inexperienced.It will improve.But there’s a lot of older in the bottom 6 doing nothing.

    Zone exits and entries look like they’re still the biggest issues, although exits seem slightly improved to my eye.Especially the use of the trailing forward behind the defense when coming out of our own zone against the trap.When they do get set up in the other zone, they rack up the shot attempts, especially it seems on the powerplay, and that’s a breath of relief from a team that used to rely heavily on the rush to score.

    I’m content so far, not elated, but okay with where they’re that.I look forward to the schedule lightening a little, bounces and calls to even up, injuries to return, more sorties flown to see where this team goes from here.

    They can very easily fall apart again, and it is TMac’s challenge to make sure it doesn’t, but I’m not going to let that be a thing until it is a thing.Right now my faith lies in the coach.

    The development of Draisaitl is also a real plus to the season thus far.What a pleasant surprise.Hall, Drai, Nuge, McDavid in the line up at the same time… I can’t wait!

    i very much enjoyed reading your comments and agree with with your thoughts.

  31. marty62 says:

    After reading these comments these last few days I am really starting to wonder how long it takes before this crazy fan base of ours starts turning on McDavid as well…. beyond crazy. I thought we had all agreed that this team was not going to compete for the playoffs this year, but still with the gnashing of teeth and wringing of the hands…..

  32. Bag of Pucks says:

    marty62:

    My take is you can either bandaid fix this now to try and win quickly with core #1 or you can do it right to create a longer window to win cups with core # 2

    This core: McDavid, Drai, Hall, Yak, Nurse, Hanifan, Klefbom, Reinhart could compete for the Cup for nearly a decade

  33. marty62 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Im just saying its crazy to trade our only established center for a kid that may or may not work out. For all we know Hanifan could be Ryan Murray in 2 years. We know what we have in Nuge

  34. TayLordBalls says:

    IF

    if the queen had balls she’d be king

    The Oilers need confidence and can’t buy it – they need to work through and earn it.

  35. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    I see bad plays by Reinhart,Nurse Davidson and Klefbom .

    They are all rookies and we should expect that.

    I look for the good plays like Reinhartone on one taking the puck away and chipping it up to start the play on Hall’s tieing goal.

    I haven’t heard any mention about his small but important contribution.

    These young players should have been here when we started the rebuild no one.

    No matter they are excellent prospects at the start of Connor rebuild and will payoff our patience.

    I agree to a point. I enjoy watching the young D get better, but suspect they’re trying to throw too many to the wolves this year.

  36. spoiler says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Except when Oilers did get a call, against Pittsburgh, it got forgotten because the Penguins won anyway. Over time the calls will even out but losing teams are more apt to remember the ones that went against them. And if your team loses a lot, it will seem unbalanced.

    I know this from years of whining about injustices real and imagined.

    I’m not forgetting that, nor the Sedin skyshot, but my highly-subjective intuitive feeling is that we’re owed a game rather than a game to the good from the bounces and calls, including extremely low percentage sharp angle shots finding their way through at an unprecedented rate.

    Throw in injuries, brutal schedule, and its not hard to believe the Oil would more often have a better record than we do if we could Monte Carlo reality.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    These trades are making me thirsty!

  38. spoiler says:

    Are all the combat hats and headphones at the Sunday Night Game a show of support for #ParisAttacks?

  39. GCW_69 says:

    marty62:
    After reading these comments these last few days I am really starting to wonder how long it takes before this crazy fan base of ours starts turning on McDavid as well…. beyond crazy. I thought we had all agreed that this team was not going to compete for the playoffs this year, but still with the gnashing of teeth and wringing of the hands…..

    Some folks around here were predicting point totals in the 90s, some around 95. The Kings finished with 95 last season and I think its fair to say they were competing for a playoff spot, even if they fell short. Instead the Oilers are on pace for fewer points than last year. That’s a pretty big gap to expectations for some.

    I put the Oilers at 75 points and right now they are making me look like an optimist.

    What’s frustrating is the REASON they are losing – for the reasons many of us pessimists were concerned about all off season – unproven goaltending and a lottery level defence.

    This is a team that could have bought out Ference and, for example, signed Franson (8 points, 53.7 CF%, CFRel% of 3.8) and Neuvrith (.939 save %) and hedged their bets but instead decided to play Russian roulette with the season. Fans should be pissed because it didn’t need to happen this way.

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    Hall, RNH, Eberle, Drai, Yak. For each and every one of these players, there is a sizeable contingent of posters on this board that squeal like weiners on the bbq should you have the unmitigated temerity to suggest a trade scenario involving one of these players. This despite the fact that not one of these players have won a single damn thing. Not a Calder, not an Art Ross, and certainly not a Stanley. Not even an effin Lady Byng.

    It can’t be emphasized enough. There is one untouchable / untradeable player in this franchise – Connor McDavid.

    Every other player on this roster could theoretically be traded for a superior player. To insist otherwise is disingenuous, biased, and foolhardy. Just stop insisting certain players are untouchable already. This is a place where logic is supposed to reign, not favouritism and bias.

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    It took Hedman, what, 4-5 years after being drafted to be a top pairing anchor?

    If you trade RNH for Hanifin, you’re trading Hall too and not competing until year 1/2 of McDavid’s next contract.

    Established or close D, or don’t trade core roster players.

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    marty62:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Im just saying its crazy to trade our only established center for a kid that may or may not work out.For all we know Hanifan could be Ryan Murray in 2 years. We know what we have in Nuge

    You realize in the trade scenario I propose, you’re getting a vet C in return, right?

  43. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Eddie Lack at .865 after 4 games. The other top trade option this summer.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    It took Hedman, what, 4-5 years after being drafted to be a top pairing anchor?

    If you trade RNH for Hanifin, you’re trading Hall too and not competing until year 1/2 of McDavid’s next contract.

    Established or close D, or don’t trade core roster players.

    Watching this team now, you honestly believe they’re only 1 vet away from Cup contention?

    Core #1 is a failure. Building to maximize McDavid’s prime is the smart play imo.

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    sliderule:

    I look for the good plays like Reinhartone on one taking the puck away and chipping it up to start the play on Hall’s tieing goal.

    I haven’t heard any mention about his small but important contribution.

    It may have been lost in another point, but i mentioned in the last thread that Reinhart got burned on two Kings goals and started the play with a good first pass on two Oilers goals. Mostly I was agreeing with your general point here.

  46. Dr. Taboggan says:

    GCW_69,

    I agree for the most part. That being said there is no way to know how Franson and Neuvirth would have performed in Edmonton. Both are playing in the Eastern conference. Also significant injuries have really tested a team with limited depth. I agree though. It did not have to be this way. There were options. Even cheap, relatively useful veterans could have been signed late in the summer. Instead we have Korpse. Alas.

  47. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks: Watching this team now, you honestly believe they’re only 1 vet away from Cup contention?

    Core #1 is a failure. Building to maximize McDavid’s prime is the smart play imo.

    a #1D and progression from RNH, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yakupov, Reinhart, Klefbom

    I think that’s the smartest route to go.

    Investing the 2nd or 3rd best player on the team into someone that might not pan out for 4-5 years is a poor play, imo.

    Core #1 isn’t a failure just because management couldn’t support it with a half decent defence, league average goaltending, or any scoring depth

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid: a #1D and progression from RNH, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yakupov, Reinhart, Klefbom

    I think that’s the smartest route to go.

    Investing the 2nd or 3rd best player on the team into someone that might not pan out for 4-5 years is a poor play, imo.

    Core #1 isn’t a failure just because management couldn’t support it with a half decent defence, league average goaltending, or any scoring depth

    So, how are you acquiring your #1D exactly? You don’t appear willing to trade anything of value.

    No one is trading you a legitimate #1D for a W or draft pick.

  49. mm says:

    LT,

    Is there a veteran defenseman that could be available from and underachieving
    team that won’t cost us our top forwards right now ? Or am I way too optimistic ?

    Then we could force Reinhart to AHL to limit rookies.

    Justin Schultz is a wild card with unkown trade value.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: McLellan stays.

    Well at least fire the training staff!!

    (Looks around, exits quietly)

  51. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks: So, how are you acquiring your #1D exactly? You don’t appear willing to trade anything of value.

    No one is trading you a legitimate #1D for a W or draft pick.

    not out of the realm of possibility that a top 3-5 pick, where Edmonton is headed, would fetch a young top pair D

    makes more sense than banking on an 18YO to solve the issues in the next couple of years. A progression like Hedman, Ellis, Larsson, Murray would leave you hooped in that deal.

  52. Pouzar says:

    Save % is .899.

    Let’s trade Nuge.

    F^ckin Fantastic.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    marty62:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Im just saying its crazy to trade our only established center for a kid that may or may not work out.For all we know Hanifan could be Ryan Murray in 2 years. We know what we have in Nuge

    By your logic, it was crazy to trade Phil Kessel for Tyler Seguin cos the Bruins knew what they had in Kessel.

    A good GM has to be able to project long term player upsides. If you simply look at the players on the basis of what they’ve done in the past and what they’re doing currently, you end up making trades like Mike Milbury.

  54. JDï™ says:

    leadfarmer: Well at least fire the training staff!!

    It’s got to be Joey!

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks: Watching this team now, you honestly believe they’re only 1 vet away from Cup contention?

    Core #1 is a failure. Building to maximize McDavid’s prime is the smart play imo.

    Am I the only remaining person that thinks there is nothing wrong with core #1. Nothing!! The problem is other than Pouliot there has not been a significant addition to this roster that has not been a lottery pick. The picks outside the first round haven’t been good. The free agent signings other than Pou have ranged from meh to terrible.

    And btw Hall is the most dominant player at his position that we have seen since the Rake. A splendid player

  56. Oil2Oilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    These trades are making me thirsty!

    Your boys play of late is making you drai

  57. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar:
    Save % is .899.

    Let’s trade Nuge.

    F^ckin Fantastic.

    Well how many saves has he made? And he goes for long periods of time without being noticeable. Like did you see him make a single play last game?

  58. JDï™ says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    These trades are making me thirsty!

    Try some bosco!

  59. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid: not out of the realm of possibility that a top 3-5 pick, where Edmonton is headed, would fetch a young top pair D

    makes more sense than banking on an 18YO to solve the issues in the next couple of years. A progression like Hedman, Ellis, Larsson, Murray would leave you hooped in that deal.

    And a Doughty like progression puts you in the conversation immediately. No one has a crystal ball.

    Obviously the known quantity vet #1D is the safer more preferable option, but in case you haven’t noticed those guys are not being traded unless they’re under performing their contracts or are malcontents.

  60. Pouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Well how many saves has he made?And he goes for long periods of time without being noticeable.Like did you see him make a single play last game?

    Good point. Throw in Nurse to make it happen!

  61. leadfarmer says:

    We might have to change Halls nickname from Chance to Tilt. Like in the pinball machines if you lift up on the table. Cause he single handledly Tilts the ice downstream.

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid: not out of the realm of possibility that a top 3-5 pick, where Edmonton is headed, would fetch a young top pair D

    McDavid is going to be a dominant player in this league for 15+ years and during that time managing the cap will be a massive factor in the team’s success.

    For that reason, trading a potential lottery pick in McDavid’s rookie season seems exceedingly short sighted to me.

    And why would a team do it? Why would you trade Seth Jones or OEL for a 3ov? All you’re doing is setting your own window back.

  63. Johnny skid says:

    Bag of Pucks: This is a place where logic is supposed to rein, not favouritism and bias.

    so how do you think your doing so far?

  64. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks: And a Doughty like progression puts you in the conversation immediately. No one has a crystal ball.

    Obviously the known quantity vet #1D is the safer more preferable option, but in case you haven’t noticed those guys are not being traded unless they’re under performing their contracts or are malcontents.

    the known quantity #1C is the safer preferable option to the top pair hopeful, too

    how is it unrealistic to think a team could trade a top 3-5 pick for a top pair D, but realistic to think a team starving for defence would trade their best chance at a #1D for a forward?

  65. flyfish1168 says:

    nothing helps me feel better then watching the phlegms get scored on. 3-1 hawks

  66. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    you’re basing around McDavid, I’m basing around the roster

    the one where if you aren’t facing McDavid-Yak, you’re facing RNH-Eberle and if not them then Hall-Draisaitl

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bag of Pucks,

    you’re basing around McDavid, I’m basing around the roster

    the one where if you aren’t facing McDavid-Yak, you’re facing RNH-Eberle and if not them then Hall-Draisaitl

    None of which means anything if the D is trapped in their own zone unable to get the puck up to the Fs,

    I’ll take my team with a dominant top 6 Fs and a dominant Top 4 D against your dominant Top 9 and 2D every time.

    Maintaining a dominant Top 9 in a salary cap era is next to impossible, particularly when comprised of expensive lottery picks.

    If we stay with the roster as comprised, we’ll be the highest scoring, most entertaining .500 hockey club in the league.

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    how long do we think it’ll take Nurse/Klefbom/Reinhart to turn into anything? or do we think they’ll turn into anything?

    I’d think trading a top 3-5 pick for a top pair D, and adding that D to Nurse/Klef/GR/Sekera would make a pretty decent defence a year or two from now.

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bag of Pucks,

    how long do we think it’ll take Nurse/Klefbom/Reinhart to turn into anything? or do we think they’ll turn into anything?

    I’d think trading a top 3-5 pick for a top pair D, and adding that D to Nurse/Klef/GR/Sekera would make a pretty decent defence a year or two from now.

    Which #1D do you think you could acquire for a draft pick?

  70. stephen sheps says:

    spoiler,

    military week in the NFL because it was veteran’s day on the 11th

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid: the known quantity #1C is the safer preferable option to the top pair hopeful, too

    how is it unrealistic to think a team could trade a top 3-5 pick for a top pair D, but realistic to think a team starving for defence would trade their best chance at a #1D for a forward?

    Who is the team trading their best chance at a #1D for a forward in your comparison?

    The Canes need O. They’re one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and they’re potentially losing Staal to free agency. They have 3 blue chip D. They’re an excellent potential trading partner for the Oil.

    The Sens lost Spezza for next to nothing. If the Canes could land RNH and a project with potential like Schultz for a player walking out the door and a prospect in an area where they have depth, that’s likely the best possible scenario for them.

    Most importantly, like Jim Nill, I think Chiarelli has the chops to resign Staal to a reasonable contract.

    The Canes get younger and potentially better at C. They lose prospect depth where they can most afford it.

    The Oil fill their biggest need with a blue chip prospect on a value contract. They add a productive vet C to mentor their two young C prospects, one who can still score.

    If you’re saying no to this, It’s like the Oil potentially have Crosby (McDavid) and Malkin (Drai), but they refuse to trade Jordan Staal (RNH) for a potential Duncan Keith despite a glaring need at that position.

    Balance the effin roster already.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bag of Pucks,

    how long do we think it’ll take Nurse/Klefbom/Reinhart to turn into anything? or do we think they’ll turn into anything?

    I’d think trading a top 3-5 pick for a top pair D, and adding that D to Nurse/Klef/GR/Sekera would make a pretty decent defence a year or two from now.

    200 games to become an effective D in this league. I believe that’s LT’s line and it sounds about right to me too.

    Don’t get me wrong. I like Nurse, KBom and Reinhart a LOT. None of them project to have the offensive upside that Hanifan does though.

  73. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Harpers Hair: Which #1D do you think you could acquire for a draft pick?

    not necessarily #1D, but prospect on the brink or top pair vet

    maybe NJ isn’t in love with Larsson or Severson and sees their centre prospect depth is weak weak

    same could go for NSH and Ellis or Jones

    Minnesota’s C depth is 32YO Koivu then Granlund, maybe Dumba or Spurgeon becomes available

    Friedman said something about COL and Barrie, that’d be an interesting option though I doubt it could happen

    I’m talking ideal situation. Trade the pick to save a few years waiting on a prospect.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    LadiesloveSmid: not necessarily #1D, but prospect on the brink or top pair vet

    maybe NJ isn’t in love with Larsson or Severson and sees their centre prospect depth is weak weak

    same could go for NSH and Ellis or Jones

    Minnesota’s C depth is 32YO Koivu then Granlund, maybe Dumba or Spurgeon becomes available

    Friedman said something about COL and Barrie, that’d be an interesting option though I doubt it could happen

    I’m talking ideal situation. Trade the pick to save a few years waiting on a prospect.

    Minnesota’s C depth is Coyle, Koivu, Granlund, Haula and Carter.

    Nashville is looking for forwards but they need established players, not draft picks.

    If you want to pry a top pairing D out of those teams you will have to give them what they need…not a draft pick.

  75. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Why isn’t RNH Malkin in this scenario? Why is Hanifin, Duncan Keith? Push the narrative?

    Carolina’s management team was said to be dancing around when Hanifin fell to them. Likely headed into another inevitable rebuild, I don’t think they’d trade the head of their future defence core for a centre that might be 26-27 when they start to compete.

    Really thrilled with Spezza getting paid 7.5M until he’s 36/37?

  76. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Harpers Hair: Minnesota’s C depth is Coyle, Koivu, Granlund, Haula and Carter.

    Nashville is looking for forwards but they need established players, not draft picks.

    If you want to pry a top pairing D out of those teams you will have to give them what they need…not a draft pick.

    who’s the #1C there in Minnesota? 2 years from now?

    If NSH still has Jones on the 3rd pair, I’d think they would take a top C prospect+. If not for Jones, then for Ellis. They’ve got nothing for centres in their pipeline.

  77. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks: 200 games to become an effective D in this league. I believe that’s LT’s line and it sounds about right to me too.

    Don’t get me wrong. I like Nurse, KBom and Reinhart a LOT.None of them project to have the offensive upside that Hanifan does though.

    why an arbitrary number like 200? Guys like Trouba/Lindholm/Ekblad/Brodin/etc. all are helping/have helped their teams immensely without playing 200 games. Unreasonable that a guy like Nurse would? Klef?

    Wasn’t offence Hannifin’s question mark coming into the draft? Wasn’t the tag line, he could safely project as a Jay Bouwmeester? Let’s not forget Klefbom had 18 EVP in 60 games last year, has 10P in 18 this year

  78. spoiler says:

    stephen sheps:
    spoiler,

    military week in the NFL because it was veteran’s day on the 11th

    Awesome, thanks. Didn’t think Paris could be the reason.

  79. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Harpers Hair,

    why is it ridiculous to think a team would trade a roster player for a draft pick, when the Hannifin deal proposed is exactly that? Hanifin has played 14 games, he’s a fresh draft pick too

  80. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Why isn’t RNH Malkin in this scenario? Why is Hanifin, Duncan Keith? Push the narrative?

    Carolina’s management team was said to be dancing around when Hanifin fell to them. Likely headed into another inevitable rebuild, I don’t think they’d trade the head of their future defence core for a centre that might be 26-27 when they start to compete.

    Really thrilled with Spezza getting paid 7.5M until he’s 36/37?

    You can’t see the obvious resemblances btw Drai/Malkin, RNH/Staal?

    Staal was drafted 2OV. Nuge 1OV in a weak draft. Both great two way players. Superior skaters.

    The Drai and Malkin comparisons are obvious, big, skilled passers, elite vision, passing forehand and backhand.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    so basically stylistic comparables? not which one is the better player? that doesn’t help much, unless you personally just see a better complement in LD. Comparing Malkin and Staal isn’t comparing a big skilled passer and a two way forward, it’s comparing an elite player to a 2nd line player (maybe generous).

    let’s not forget what PIT’s centre depth was when they won the cup

  82. hunter1909 says:

    They’re still losing, but who isn’t amazed at the emergence of Draisaitl?

    Sutter put it best. Once RNH and SuperDave return, this team is going to be a monster.

  83. vangolf says:

    Bag of pucks, I couldn’t agree with your sentiments more. This blog (the constituency that opposes bag of pucks or trading rnh) is becoming akin to a morality mob and reminding me of the “wear the ribbon” crowd from Seinfeld lore. I’m still waiting for a realistic alternative for finding defensive balance. The idea of using a pick this year is laughable; it capitulates this year, there is no idea where it will land, the value of this year’s prospects are still being determined and no guarantee that a team that wants the pick has the assets we need.

    I beg this blog to start providing alternatives when they take sarcastic swipes at those who would trade rnh, Eberle, hall etc.

    mcdavid is the only untradeable.

  84. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    JDï™: Try some bosco!

    “Ahh, what kind of man are you? Well, you’re weak, spineless, a man of temptations.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAR7jqSG46E

  85. Caramel Obvious says:

    Gmoney posted this in the previous thread and it didn’t get the attention it deserved:

    “Nick Mercadante (who is extremely valuable to follow esp. re: goaltending) is listening to an NHL scout talk about prospects, and is just in awe of the complete psychobabble therein.
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 13 mins13 minutes ago
    Listening to a few NHL scouts discussing prospects. This is horrible. It’s just a series of buzzwords and nonsense. This all it takes?
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 11 mins11 minutes ago
    W the Fs at least they mention boxcars. But abundantly clear they have no idea how to analyze D. “I saw him a couple times” assessments.
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 11 mins11 minutes ago
    A stream of this: “well I really like his battle. Big bodied. Long stride. Seems to have a lot of confidence.” Like…what??
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 10 mins10 minutes ago
    These are NHL scouts. One is the amateur scouting director of NJ. I guess it’s possible they aren’t trying to give away secret sauce but ???
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 8 mins8 minutes ago
    “Boy he can really get his shot up there. Scores the pretty goals. Two way guy. Power forward.” That was essentially a verbatim quote.
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 3 mins3 minutes ago
    Goalie scouting analysis of Samsanov: “has a terrific glove hand. Seems like he, uh, can, uh make that big glove save and show it like Ha!”
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 2 mins2 minutes ago
    “He always seems to make that clutch save, he can make those big saves. Athletic. His teammates appreciate his compete level.”
    Nick Mercadante ‏@NMercad 3 mins3 minutes ago
    Those are actual quotes. From an actual scout. For an NHL team. About their investment. Just complete babble.”

    Whatever our disagreements, the conversation starts with the recognition that NHL scouts have no idea what they are doing, and are unqualified for their jobs.

    The scene in moneyball with the scouts is the truth. If you use words without meaning your judgements are useless.

    Or to put it another way, it is impossible to think without the ability to use language precisely.

  86. Adam Wu says:

    leadfarmer: Am I the only remaining person that thinks there is nothing wrong with core #1.Nothing!!The problem is other than Pouliot there has not been a significant addition to this roster that has not been a lottery pick.The picks outside the first round haven’t been good.The free agent signings other than Pou have ranged from meh to terrible.

    And btw Hall is the most dominant player at his position that we have seen since the Rake.A splendid player

    You are not the only one. I also do not think there is anything wrong with core #1, other than the fact that it is not large enough (ie it doesn’t include a decent D prospect. Someone like, say, Montreal’s Jeff Petry…)

  87. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Monahan chasing tonight with a 35% CF even with some help from score effects.

    Weird that he was outclassed by Toews despite flames fans calling him Toews

  88. Adam Wu says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Hall, RNH, Eberle, Drai, Yak. For each and every one of these players, there is a sizeable contingent of posters on this board that squeal like weiners on the bbq should you have the unmitigated temerity to suggest a trade scenario involving one of these players. This despite the fact that not one of these players have won a single damn thing. Not a Calder, not an Art Ross, and certainly not a Stanley. Not even an effin Lady Byng.

    It can’t be emphasized enough. There is one untouchable / untradeableplayer in this franchise – Connor McDavid.

    Every other player on this roster could theoretically be traded for a superior player. To insist otherwise is disingenuous, biased, and foolhardy. Just stop insisting certain players are untouchable already. This is a place where logic is supposed to rein, not favouritism and bias.

    If you are going to include “theoretical” trades where the other GM is an idiot who offers the better player for an inferior player, then it is disingenuous, foolhardy, and biased for you to exclude McDavid. In this hypothetical scenario, McDavid is not untouchable either.

    McDavid has also not won a single damn thing. Not a Caldar, not an Art Ross, not a Stanley, not a Lady Bing. He couldn’t even lead his junior team to the Memorial Cup tournament, let alone win it.

    What if a team like LA, with one of the best 1D’s in the game, in their prime, offered their entire D corps in exchange for McDavid, or some other Lindros-style combo? Combine that D group, with their weaker members replaced by Sekera and Klefbom and Nurse as 7D, with the Oilers F group with, and you’ve got yourself a Stanley Cup contender this year, and you won’t have the kind of cap issues that keeping McDavid will give you.

  89. Lowetide says:

    vangolf:
    I beg this blog to start providing alternatives when they take sarcastic swipes at those who would trade rnh, Eberle, hall etc.

    That’s not the blog’s job. The blog’s job is to create an atmosphere where ideas can be floated and discussed, from advanced stats through trade ideas and interesting alcohol and tinfoil hats. Sarcastic swipes on the internet are going to continue, unabated is my guess.

  90. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Monahan chasing tonight with a 35% CF even with some help from score effects.

    Weird that he was outclassed by Toews despite flames fans calling him Toews

    He’s an awesome young player. Hope they don’t Ganger him.

  91. Gret99zky says:

    marty62:
    After reading these comments these last few days I am really starting to wonder how long it takes before this crazy fan base of ours starts turning on McDavid as well…. beyond crazy. I thought we had all agreed that this team was not going to compete for the playoffs this year, but still with the gnashing of teeth and wringing of the hands…..

    You make it sound like the team is going to finish 10 or so points out of the playoffs.

    They are DFL. Again.

    On pace to finish with a lower point total than last season’s epic failure.

    Every tooth in the place should be gnashed and every hand wrung.

    How do you expect people to feel? Content? Excited about finishing with the worse point total in franchise history? Your right, this fan base is crazy.

  92. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: Minnesota’s C depth is Coyle, Koivu, Granlund, Haula and Carter.

    Nashville is looking for forwards but they need established players, not draft picks.

    If you want to pry a top pairing D out of those teams you will have to give them what they need…not a draft pick.

    Hmmmm. This has the mild aroma of a DSF post. Confident, terse, swatting aside ideas like he’s Donald Trump onstage with 11 Piggly Wiggly managers. Welcome back!

  93. Bag of Pucks says:

    Johnny skid: so how do you think your doing so far?

    Well, I do know the difference between your and you’re, which is more than I can say for you.

  94. Gordies Elbow says:

    From the NHL.com stats site (yeah, I know, I’ve worked with SAP in the past…) – the Oiler’s defense actually doesn’t look too bad.

    Middle of the pack for shots against. Points from the defense that match teams like Winnipeg, Calgary, and Toronto. Not world beaters, but middle of the pack.

    Every stat I’ve looked at suggests the problem is in net, and not the defense. Someone, please convince me that this is wrong… (thanks!)

  95. Kmart99 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    From the NHL.com stats site (yeah, I know, I’ve worked with SAP in the past…) – the Oiler’s defense actually doesn’t look too bad.

    Middle of the pack for shots against. Points from the defense that match teams like Winnipeg, Calgary,and Toronto. Not world beaters, but middle of the pack.

    Every stat I’ve looked at suggests the problem is in net, and not the defense. Someone, please convince me that this is wrong… (thanks!)

    I think score effects are a big part of it.

    Oilers are getting rocked when they are even, or up by 1. That’s when the goalies give up the goals.

  96. Lowetide says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    From the NHL.com stats site (yeah, I know, I’ve worked with SAP in the past…) – the Oiler’s defense actually doesn’t look too bad.

    Middle of the pack for shots against. Points from the defense that match teams like Winnipeg, Calgary,and Toronto. Not world beaters, but middle of the pack.

    Every stat I’ve looked at suggests the problem is in net, and not the defense. Someone, please convince me that this is wrong… (thanks!)

    Well, here’s what I think:

    1. There IS a problem in goal, and the wobbly GA are only a part of it. There are crazy rebounds and silly puck movements (like last night) and all kinds of ridiculous things. That’s a given.
    2. That’s not the only problem.
    3. The second problem comes from the Oilers having four defensemen who seem reasonably effective (Nurse-Sekera, Klefbom-Fayne) although they do have moments that the eye can identify as errors. They are NOT a grand solution but best available and that foursome could really use some help.
    4. The third pairing, a duo that is going to PK and EV a lot, isn’t working.

    The problems are obvious imo. The solutions, too. The desire to make the changes? I think PC will make a move and hope it’s a good one. D-FENSE. And a goalie if necessary but for me Talbot was good a year ago and one would hope they don’t throw away the asset for nothing.

  97. frjohnk says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Monahan chasing tonight with a 35% CF even with some help from score effects.

    Weird that he was outclassed by Toews despite flames fans calling him Toews

    It’s pretty simple. Calgary needs to trade for number 1 D man.

    Cuz if you have a number 1 D man all your prays are answered.

  98. Johnny skid says:

    Bag of Pucks: Well, I do know the difference between your and you’re, which is more than I can say for you.

    i agree with you on that at least. i hope your not going to hold it against me.

  99. G Money says:

    Some words re: the situational Corsi that BoP and a few others have posted.

    They show the Oilers are lousy tied and up, and out of this world when behind by a couple.

    This is being attributed to score effects.

    That’s wrong. The situational indicators, by definition, already incorporate score effects.

    If you move up or down the rankings in particular situational indicators, it means you are doing better or worse than the score effects are telling you.

    The situational indicators are telling us exactly what the eye has observed lo these many nights: that the Oilers sleepwalk their way into games, and once they’re behind by two or three goals, they wake out of their slumber and pour it on like crazy.

    You can see the dramatic swing in effort level, you don’t need the fancy stats for it (though they certainly help confirm).

    The Oilers pour it on at a level WAY OUT OF WHACK with ANY score effects estimations, which is why they jump from sub-20 to top-5 in the blink of an eye.

    If the Oilers could learn to bring a high consistent effort level – not that crazy behind-2 level that they have, nor the sleepwalking one they have when tied, but something between for something approaching sixty minutes – they will be a consistently good team.

    I assume TMc is focused on this a lot. I assume this is part of the process of ‘learning how to win’.

  100. Gret99zky says:

    frjohnk: It’s pretty simple. Calgary needs to trade for number 1 D man.

    Cuz if you have a number 1 D man all your prays are answered.

    Meh, I think it’s the goalers there too. Stinky.

  101. vangolf says:

    Lowetide: That’s not the blog’s job. The blog’s job is to create an atmosphere where ideas can be floated and discussed, from advanced stats through trade ideas and interesting alcohol and tinfoil hats. Sarcastic swipes on the internet are going to continue, unabated is my guess.

    That’s the point! Someone presents a case for trading [Insert member of the core (RNH, Hall)] and a lot of posters dismiss the idea as lunacy and beneath them to actually debate with argument (looking at you Pouzar on this thread for example). I submit that a lot of posters are too focused on individual trees (players) than the forest (the team). Is it possible (and therefore worthy of consideration) that, for example, Hall for McDonagh/Josi could be a good trade? I don’t think it is, but someone isn’t a moron for suggesting it. And by suggesting something like this that person is often painted as saying that Hall is the problem, when they opposite is likely the case (they think so much of Hall that they realize someone of his status needs to be moved to bring in the asset).

    The team is dysfunctionally constructed and we have a 9 year sample size. A blog paranoia has developed among certain posters that because as you say “bad teams make bad trades” that any trade of a major asset will be a loser.

  102. dustrock says:

    One does wonder if the goalies are nervous because they don’t trust their D.

    Does Talbot play the puck along the boards because he doesn’t trust Fayne to move it out?

  103. Johnny skid says:

    frjohnk: It’s pretty simple. Calgary needs to trade for number 1 D man.

    Cuz if you have a number 1 D man all your prays are answered.

    it’s just that easy!

  104. leadfarmer says:

    vangolf: That’s the point!Someone presents a case for trading [Insert member of the core (RNH, Hall)] and a lot of posters dismiss the idea as lunacy and beneath them to actually debate with argument (looking at you Pouzar on this thread for example).I submit that a lot of posters are too focused on individual trees (players) than the forest (the team).Is it possible (and therefore worthy of consideration) that, for example, Hall for McDonagh/Josi could be a good trade?I don’t think it is, but someone isn’t a moron for suggesting it. And by suggesting something like this that person is often painted as saying that Hall is the problem, when they opposite is likely the case (they think so much of Hall that they realize someone of his status needs to be moved to bring in the asset).

    The team is dysfunctionally constructed and we have a 9 year sample size.A blog paranoia has developed among certain posters that because as you say “bad teams make bad trades” that any trade of a major asset will be a loser.

    Yes but this conversation most of the time goes like this,

    Poster :They need to improve the D. C’mon trade somebody

    Everyone else: Like who

    Poster: I dont know, [Insert Nuge, Hall, Eberle, Yak]

    Everyon else: For who?

    Poster: Like someone good. We need someone good. Someone thats going to be an elite #1 for 22 years

    Everyone else: Such as?

    Poster: I dont know, Get like Doughty or OEL, Or Hedman

    Everyone else: What makes you think they are available, as soon as that team trades that player they will be looking to replace him instantly and they will be in the situation we are in

    Poster: Well make them trade him. I don’t know, throw in Omark’s socks to sweeten the deal

  105. G Money says:

    Gret99zky,

    The Flames goaltending is certainly problematic, but the problems there run deep – just as they have for five years now.

    The Oilers lost to CHI 4-2. The Flames lost 4-1.

    Just thought for fun I would post the fancystats for these two games:

    For Edmonton:

    CF% SACF% FF% DFF% SF% Avg Dist F Avg Dist A RelDist% GF%
    52 ,48.5 , 60.6 , 69.4 , 57.1 , 32.1 , 39 , 21.5 , 25

    For Calgary:
    CF% SACF% FF% DFF% SF% Avg Dist F Avg Dist A RelDist%,GF%
    40.6 , 38.6 , 37.0 , 35.8 , 33.3 , 31.3 , 36.1 , 15.3 , 20.0

  106. Bag of Pucks says:

    vangolf: That’s the point!Someone presents a case for trading [Insert member of the core (RNH, Hall)] and a lot of posters dismiss the idea as lunacy and beneath them to actually debate with argument (looking at you Pouzar on this thread for example).I submit that a lot of posters are too focused on individual trees (players) than the forest (the team).Is it possible (and therefore worthy of consideration) that, for example, Hall for McDonagh/Josi could be a good trade?I don’t think it is, but someone isn’t a moron for suggesting it. And by suggesting something like this that person is often painted as saying that Hall is the problem, when they opposite is likely the case (they think so much of Hall that they realize someone of his status needs to be moved to bring in the asset).

    The team is dysfunctionally constructed and we have a 9 year sample size.A blog paranoia has developed among certain posters that because as you say “bad teams make bad trades” that any trade of a major asset will be a loser.

    It really is an inexplicable groupthink. The team is a perennial cellar dweller but every core player, and even those trending towards busts, are each individually appraised as untouchable lynchpins?

    You would think this team is a 3 time Cup winner the way its core players are individually appraised and their apparent weaknesses excused.

  107. G Money says:

    dustrock:
    One does wonder if the goalies are nervous because they don’t trust their D.

    Does Talbot play the puck along the boards because he doesn’t trust Fayne to move it out?

    In my experience, it is the opposite. Goalies play how goalies play. They stand on their head or they stink or something in between.

    Defensemen DO visibly get nervous and tighten up in front of a lousy goalie though.

    Very noticeable effect stemming back all the way to the Cujo-Essensa days for the Oilers.

  108. Lowetide says:

    vangolf: That’s the point!Someone presents a case for trading [Insert member of the core (RNH, Hall)] and a lot of posters dismiss the idea as lunacy and beneath them to actually debate with argument (looking at you Pouzar on this thread for example).I submit that a lot of posters are too focused on individual trees (players) than the forest (the team).Is it possible (and therefore worthy of consideration) that, for example, Hall for McDonagh/Josi could be a good trade?I don’t think it is, but someone isn’t a moron for suggesting it. And by suggesting something like this that person is often painted as saying that Hall is the problem, when they opposite is likely the case (they think so much of Hall that they realize someone of his status needs to be moved to bring in the asset).

    The team is dysfunctionally constructed and we have a 9 year sample size.A blog paranoia has developed among certain posters that because as you say “bad teams make bad trades” that any trade of a major asset will be a loser.

    Well, perhaps people feel a certain way and are expressing it in a way that is confrontational but holds water. For instance, Peter Chiarelli invested heavily in three D he felt could help (Sekera, Gryba, Reinhart) and most GMs like their decisions even in the face of early difficulty. That’s kind of my point about Talbot above.

    So, the idea of making a big (and what you’re suggesting is big) trade now probably doesn’t make a lot of sense—not because it isn’t worth discussing, but more because the timing is wrong.

    Chiarelli will want to see more of his team (although he has to send his troops something, I’d expect) and a big trade is more likely in summer.

  109. Johnny skid says:

    Bag of Pucks: ou would think this team is a 3 time Cup winner the way it’s core players are individually appraised and their apparent weaknesses excused.

    have they not won 5 cups this team you speak of.

  110. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks: It really is an inexplicable groupthink. The team is a perennial cellar dweller but every core player, and even those trending towards busts, are each individually appraised as untouchable lynchpins?

    You would think this team is a 3 time Cup winner the way it’s core players are individually appraised and their apparent weaknesses excused.

    Thats a ridiculous statement. No one is claiming most of these guys as untouchable. Its just that most people are actually realistic what these players would get back in return that they think its not worth trading that player. You think people are lining up to give up their #1 defenseman for Yak. Eberle is good at what he does but he’s not going to bring back anyone that will rescue this D-Corpse. Sure you can trade the Nuge, but then you got 2 rookie centermen and thats not a recipe for success, Neither is trading your best two way center. Hall could get a good defensemen back but I don’t think its the one youd want.
    The new GM just got here. He does need some time to evaluate what he has, what he needs, and how to get it.

  111. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: It really is an inexplicable groupthink. The team is a perennial cellar dweller but every core player, and even those trending towards busts, are each individually appraised as untouchable lynchpins?

    You would think this team is a 3 time Cup winner the way its core players are individually appraised and their apparent weaknesses excused.

    I’d disagree with that. The Oilers have great strengths (forwards) and great weaknesses (the rest) and that may seem like a bad thing but at least they know what isn’t a worry. Come summer, PC will have a pile of money, a bunch of young blue, and several impressive forwards.

    Trading one of the forwards is an option, but not the only one. I think attacking posters verbally here is probably your way of pushing your agenda, and you’re welcome to go your best. I will warn you, though: This is a stubborn bunch. 🙂

  112. leadfarmer says:

    And no one is making trades yet. The only teams that are lining up for the trade market, sounds like Cbus and Colorado are looking for defensemen and no one is selling

  113. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: It’s pretty simple. Calgary needs to trade for number 1 D man.

    Cuz if you have a number 1 D man all your prays are answered.

    that’s why the Coyotes were so good last year

  114. Bag of Pucks says:

    Johnny skid: have they not won 5 cups this team you speak of.

    You recall the Taylor Hall core winning 5 cups do you? Might be time to up the meds.

    Oh, I get it. You’re being literal.

    Brilliant satire. Seriously. Monty Python-esque.

  115. Halfwise says:

    Gret99zky: You make it sound like the team is going to finish 10 or so points out of the playoffs.

    They are DFL.Again.

    On pace to finish with a lower point total than last season’s epic failure.

    Every tooth in the place should be gnashed and every hand wrung.

    How do you expect people to feel?Content?Excited about finishing with the worse point total in franchise history?Your right, this fan base is crazy.

    I hate that the Oilers are in last place. Winning is way better than losing.

    But the last few years have made me kind of numb to the losing, plus old age and/or good whisky have begun — this year — to make me kind of optimistic about what is starting to take shape on the ice. Last night during the second period I posted that I was proud of this team. They were giving LA fits, as much as the Kings could handle, and it wasn’t just for 12 seconds at a time. Even Sutter mumbled something to that effect after the game, I’m told.

    Then they lost. Again.
    I swore, again.

    But I do not see this team as being on pace to finish DFL in the league, the way you describe it. You’re just extrapolating their points in the standings, as if an arithmetic trend is some kind of destiny. They are losing to mistakes and the odd bad break. Last year they were losing because they just weren’t good enough, and this year they are closer to good enough. Gnash not thy teeth, neither wring thy hands, good sir, nor weep nor wail that a plague is once again upon us.

    Well, gnash and wring at the mistakes, but enjoy the good moments, especially Drai and Hall.

  116. Halfwise says:

    Bag of Pucks: Well, I do know the difference between your and you’re, which is more than I can say for you.

    Might want to check on the difference between rein and reign before getting all spelly on people.

  117. Bag of Pucks says:

    leadfarmer: Thats a ridiculous statement.No one is claiming most of these guys as untouchable.Its just that most people are actually realistic what these players would get back in return that they think its not worth trading that player.You think people are lining up to give up their #1 defenseman for Yak.Eberle is good at what he does but he’s not going to bring back anyone that will rescue this D-Corpse.Sure you can trade the Nuge, but then you got 2 rookie centermen and thats not a recipe for success, Neither is trading your best two way center.Hall could get a good defensemen back but I don’t think its the one youd want.
    The new GM just got here.He does need some time to evaluate what he has, what he needs, and how to get it.

    I have not once suggested that Yak or Eberle would ever net a #1D in trade on their own.

    You’re literally just making shit up.

  118. Johnny skid says:

    Lowetide: I’d disagree with that. The Oilers have great strengths (forwards) and great weaknesses (the rest) and that may seem like a bad thing but at least they know what isn’t a worry. Come summer, PC will have a pile of money, a bunch of young blue, and several impressive forwards.

    Trading one of the forwards is an option, but not the only one. I think attacking posters verbally here is probably your way of pushing your agenda, and you’re welcome to go your best. I will warn you, though: This is a stubborn bunch.

    you are so right LT. we now have qualified management and if they decide to trade some of the core or who ever I’m sure most would be on side with that. how ever some on here make it sound so damn easy.

  119. Lowetide says:

    Johnny skid: you are so right LT. we now have qualified management and if they decide to trade some of the core or who ever I’m sure most would be on side with that. how ever some on here make it sound sodamn easy.

    Well, if they trade Eberle for Phaneuf I’m going to need a bigger boat. 🙂

  120. spoiler says:

    Bag of Pucks: You recall the Taylor Hall core winning 5 cups do you? Might be time to up the meds.

    Oh, I get it. You’re being literal.

    Brilliant satire. Seriously. Monty Python-esque.

    Might be time to put down the wine glass…

  121. Bag of Pucks says:

    Halfwise: Might want to check on the difference between rein and reign before getting all spelly on people.

    “I think you need to rein in the temptation to rain on my parade before I end your reign.”
    Raine Maida.

  122. Halfwise says:

    Bag of Pucks: “I think you need to rein in the temptation to rain on my parade before I end your reign.”
    Raine Maida.

    Good one. Is it from days of yore?

  123. jp says:

    D: Yes sir. We’ll call it even. I’m counting on Brossoit to come in and stabilize the crease.

    See, this I do not understand.

    Talbot has been terrible lately, no doubt. And Broissoit has had a nice start in Bakersfield. No argument.

    But what on God’s green earth makes you think Brossoit will be better than Talbot going forward?

    That presumes that: 1) Talbot won’t regain the form he showed the previous 2 seasons, and 2) Brossoit is ready to be an NHL starting goalie.

    Do you realize that Talbot has 2 NHL seasons (26GP .941SVP and 36GP .926SVP) with a better SVP than anything Brossoit has ever posted in a full season at any level? But Broissoit is the better bet to stabilize the crease? I’ve got nothing against Brossoit, but I don’t see it.

  124. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: I’d disagree with that. The Oilers have great strengths (forwards) and great weaknesses (the rest) and that may seem like a bad thing but at least they know what isn’t a worry. Come summer, PC will have a pile of money, a bunch of young blue, and several impressive forwards.

    Trading one of the forwards is an option, but not the only one. I think attacking posters verbally here is probably your way of pushing your agenda, and you’re welcome to go your best. I will warn you, though: This is a stubborn bunch.

    I think you’ll find if you review the thread that I typically don’t insult posters unless they insult me first.

    I’m kind of classy that way.

  125. Johnny skid says:

    Lowetide: Well, if they trade Eberle for Phaneuf I’m going to need a bigger boat.

    i said we have qualified management. i’m dreaming trouba type trade.

  126. Chamucks says:

    vangolf,

    People have to spell out why trading a guy who turned 24 yesterday and is on a 90 point pace, fourth in the league in scoring and an absolute 5×5 monster is a bad idea? OEL for Hall or whatever you’re getting at won’t fix this team. A top pairing guy along with say a Taylor Hall are how you win Stanley IMO.
    I agree you have to give to get but we need to be more creative than this. Hall and Nuge are crazy valuable at 6m per as well. All I’m saying is there has to be some way to fix the D and not move laterally. If assembling the best possible total roster means waiting until summer then I’m game.
    If only there was another Edmonton to trade us Petry for pennies.

  127. Bruce McCurdy says:

    vangolf:
    Bag of pucks, I couldn’t agree with your sentiments more.This blog (the constituency that opposes bag of pucks or trading rnh) is becoming akin to a morality mob and reminding me of the “wear the ribbon” crowd from Seinfeld lore.I’m still waiting for a realistic alternative for finding defensive balance.The idea of using a pick this year is laughable; it capitulates this year, there is no idea where it will land, the value of this year’s prospects are still being determined and no guarantee that a team that wants the pick has the assets we need.

    I beg this blog to start providing alternatives when they take sarcastic swipes at those who would trade rnh, Eberle, hall etc.

    mcdavid is the only untradeable.

    so it’s OK for you to lob bombs like “morality mob” but when someone with a different opinion takes “sarcastic swipes” you go running to the teacher for help? What a crock.

  128. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: inexplicable groupthink

    Sure. And “inexplicable groupthink” is hey, how you doing! 🙂 I enjoy your posts but it’s pretty clear this is an issue you feel strongly about. I’m not stopping you, rock on.

  129. Johnny skid says:

    Chamucks:
    vangolf,

    People have to spell out why trading a guy who turned 24 yesterday and is on a 90 point pace, fourth in the league in scoring and an absolute 5×5 monster is a bad idea? OEL for Hall or whatever you’re getting at won’t fix this team. A top pairing guy along with say a Taylor Hall are how you win Stanley IMO.I agree you have to give to get but we need to be more creative than this. Hall and Nuge are crazy valuable at 6m per as well. All I’m saying is there has to be some way to fix the D and not move laterally. If assembling the best possible total roster means waiting until summer then I’m game.
    If only there was another Edmonton to trade us Petry for pennies.

    i hope chia see’s it the same way you do. I’m guessing he does.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks: It really is an inexplicable groupthink. The team is a perennial cellar dweller but every core player, and even those trending towards busts, are each individually appraised as untouchable lynchpins?

    You would think this team is a 3 time Cup winner the way its core players are individually appraised and their apparent weaknesses excused.

    I would like to refer you to calgarypuck. You will fit right in.

  131. oilswell says:

    frjohnk: It’s pretty simple. Calgary needs to trade for number 1 D man.

    Cuz if you have a number 1 D man all your prays are answered.

    Yes, it’s completely obvious. They’re flushing the season!

  132. Zelepukin says:

    I’m confident we’re very close to solving all our problems in this thread.

  133. Johnny skid says:

    leadfarmer: I would like to refer you to calgarypuck.You will fit right in.

    i was thinking hf boards but you could be right.

  134. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Sure. And “inexplicable groupthink” is hey, how you doing! I enjoy your posts but it’s pretty clear this is an issue you feel strongly about. I’m not stopping you, rock on.

    Fair point. It’s not the blog community en masse. That’s painting with too broad a brush. It’s ‘pockets’ within the larger community.

    Btw, groupthink is an inevitable byproduct of most internet discourse. It’s this silly need humans have to fit in and be popular. It doesn’t lend itself to contrarian Povs.

    It’s one of the reason I enjoy posters like WG and Hunter who don’t care what other people think of their opinions. There’s strength and honesty in that.

  135. Wonder Llama says:

    Right or wrong, I’m in the camp that advocates trading next year’s 1st round pick for the best facsimile of a 1RHD out there (it won’t be OEL level of course – more like ShattenkirkSpurgeon/Ellis level) and seeing how Nurse/Klef/Reinhart progress.

    I swear I’m at the point where I don’t even WANT another 1OV on our team – it’s getting too embarrassing.

    Also: have you seen the man they call Reveen? Dad took us in about 1973 (Regina Centre of the Arts, iirc).

  136. Chamucks says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Having an unpopular opinion doesn’t make you a victim of the “groupthink”. It’s just an upopular opinion.

  137. vishcosity says:

    i’ve only watched a couple games this year but I’ve really enjoyed them. The first year under eakins was totally unwatchable. I had to take a couple years off. Its nice to be able to want to keep watching. I don’t really care about the standings. I did, but I don’t really anymore.

    Lowetide: interesting alcohol and tinfoil hats

    WOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

    Green light. I got a whole bunch.

    Spent last week with a wine maker. He got picked by the GM to meet the photographers at 5 am on a couple different mornings. Mostly we stand around except for about 15 minutes of madness. So far, this is what I’ve learned on how best to get started with wine:

    1. Pick a variety. If you like a scotch like product, pick syrah. If you’re into a light lady-friendly delicate softer style, maybe pick pinot noir. Again, it doesn’t really matter which one. Its just to get started.

    2. Find a valley where the variety grows well. The Russian River grows pinot. The dry creek valley grows zinfandel. Cabs come from somewhere else. I don’t know anything about cabs.

    Pinot is really fussy and so has a narrow window. zinfandel is far more broad. If you want the easy ride, go pinot noir or chardonnay. If you want something more variable, go with zinfandel or cab sav.

    3. So say you pick zin, next find a region where it grows. On google maps you can find the different vineyards in said valley. Each vineyard nearby will have similar dirt and similar vines and by keeping the location variable constant, you can figure out a ton of things.

    Do you like oak? Some is fermented in new oak, some in stainless steel, and now there is some concrete system which may solve a bunch of problems for the non oak people. (apparently old oak doesn’t really last.)

    Does the vineyard trim the branches to allow sun on the grapes? Makes them sweeter and gives stronger flavours, but higher alcohol and more intense flavours isn’t actually what everyone wants. Is it mixing grapes and if its mixing, what varieties are going in?

    Between the three variables: agronomics (soil, location); variety; and technique, basically everyone agrees the most important thing is technique. So by keeping the agronomics and the genetics the same, you can begin to figure out the techniques that you’re after.

    So for instance: just west of Healdsburg CA is dry creek road and west dry creek road. On google maps there are about seven miles worth of vineyards. Probably 200 at least. All of them will have a zinfandel, some will use oak, some will use stainless and you can try a couple different of each. wine.com will probably ship to anywhere and if not them then there are a million other who do.

    I’ve seen it a couple times that here the locals buy La Crema.

    That’s pretty much what I’ve learned in 3 months.

    Stay tuned for reasons to wear tin. Believe me, they’re coming.

  138. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chamucks:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Having an unpopular opinion doesn’t make you a victim of the “groupthink”. It’s just an upopular opinion.

    Never claimed I was a victim.

    Being unpopular doesn’t mean it’s wrong.

  139. jp says:

    Lowetide: Hmmmm. This has the mild aroma of a DSF post. Confident, terse, swatting aside ideas like he’s Donald Trump onstage with 11 Piggly Wiggly managers. Welcome back!

    Putting Coyle #1 on the depth chart smells a little too.

  140. Chamucks says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    No, you just insinuate that people disagree so they can “fit in”.

    Bag of Pucks: It’s this silly need humans have to fit in and be popular. It doesn’t lend itself to contrarian Povs.

    All I ever wanted was to be popular on the comments section of Lowetide’s blog… Alas, the jig is up. :'(

  141. "Steve Smith" says:

    You know, in a weird way, I find myself in some agreement with BoP: he spends years here spouting homophobic, misogynistic crap, and very few say boo. But as soon as he proposes an ill-advised trade involving one of the Oilers’ best centres, people are jumping down his throat without taking turns; I admit that the vilification seems undue.

  142. Frank the dog says:

    I would be quite surprised in the worst possible way if Chia did one single thing to give the team a bit of a boost this year at the expense of 2016 onwards. simply inexplicable.
    TMac has a history. Hopefully he isn’t just a fantastic regular season coach whose teams choke in the playoffs.
    My complement to MacT is that he is at least as good as the other Todd. However TMac’s record insulates him from having to win this year. All he has to do is turn north by the end of the year.
    Dementor may have had some better stats than the others but I have never seen a coach at this level have such a demoralizing effect on these players. Even if he is doing great in the A.

  143. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Oh lovely. One of these train wreck threads again.

    Relax, people. 9-16 first 25. 12-13 next 25. 20-12 final 32.

    This team will turn things around very soon and you who cried wolf and called the core rotten will either go into hiding or be cocky as all hell about how good the team is again.

    I’m just floored that so many people wilfully ignore:
    1) rough schedule to start
    2) new goalies to get used to
    3) new coaches
    4) new systems
    5) poorly constructed bottom 6 when injuries hit
    6) injuries did hit. Big ones.
    7) post traumatic stress disorder from years of dysfunction
    8) unlearning bad hockey takes time
    9) learning good hockey takes time
    10) the D is full of holes.

    We knew ALL of this except for the extent of the injuries before the season started.

    Some of the panic is just ridiculous. This thing will turn north even without a trade and despite the weak D and all of a sudden people will be talking about changes etc., when there really won’t be anything new except the resolution of everything listed above except the D personnel. Playoff team? Heck no. Bettman .500 by end of year? I think so.

    So please back away from the ledge.

  144. Lackadaisical says:

    G Money,

    Regarding what I mentioned earlier, and your response, I’m not sure if my meaning was properly or fully conveyed. Please allow me to attempt to rearticulate the idea to ensure clarity, and forgive my verbosity. If I simply didn’t fully understand your answer, I apologise for belaboring the point.

    As I understand it, you adjust the danger of the shot based on distance and the type of shot. What I’m proposing is perhaps additional context, in that certain defences will allow more of a certain shot/distance combo. A player may consistently not pinch properly for example, or the team deploys with a small quirk, allowing for a certain pattern to develop reflected in the dangerous shot type/distance opportunities that may follow.

    Additionally, a specific type/distance/zone combination may be more dangerous to certain goalies, reflecting for example if they’re challenging the puck well, hugging the post tight etc. Allowing for a relatively skewed number of goals, specific to them from that type/distance/zone.

    Would not utilizing/creating this sort of metric be a better frame of reference for establishing how well your team is deploying against and attacking those weaknesses? (Both in creating opportunities, by creating the situations, that create the shots that the defence is shown to be likely to give up, and situations the goalie has shown difficulty dealing with?). Or perhaps this metric would be useful in itself, allowing for another layer for evaluating goalies and D?

    I guess my TLDR/summary would be:
    Is type/distance enough without considering specific competition and their usual deficiencies? Isn’t it better to drive the data from a defensive, as opposed to offensive, perspective to better contextualize capitalization?

    Thanks for your time, I’m a big fan of your work. (I’m aspiring to become an analytics hobbyist and professional programmer. I’m “self-teaching” in analytics and python whenever I can make time, so you’re kind of a role model to me. Walking the path that I’m starting to set my feet to). I put this to you, as it seems at least a possible branch of your danger adjustment work, and I currently lack the skills to recognize if there is any validity to my supposition, while trusting your opinion and knowledge.

    As another aside, I wish I’d had more tact calling out Gregor RE crediting your work. The casual laziness and “apology” infuriated beyond what was likely appropriate. I apologize if that caused you any undue frustration or difficulty rectifying the situation yourself.

    Lt, if you happen upon this, I’ve always appreciated how well you’ve credited and commended all the great posters that make this blog(and through extension, your show) special.

    Goodnight!

  145. Yeti says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: So please back away from the ledge.

    Ha! Too true! But the problem is that – as fans / fanatics – rather than back away from the ledge we wait for the next victory and jump right off it on the mistaken assumption that we can fly. Part of this is because McDavid has given us wings. But like chickens, we can only get airborne for quick bursts at a time and we have very short memories…

  146. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    Save % is .899.

    Let’s trade Nuge.

    F^ckin Fantastic.

    This is why I respond to your posts the most. You always say the correct things..

    Nuge is as close as it gets to CMD as not tradeable. We would have to get some return to make that happen.

  147. stevezie says:

    If I was Chia and Lowe stood up in a meeting and and said that Nitkinin was the worst mistake of his career and wasn’t fit to defend Helm’s Deep I would still not have bought him out.

    By not buying him out we not only kept our powder dry but gave ourselves a lot more of it for the next few years.

    Don’t shoot unless there’s something to hit and hitting it will change your situation, right?

  148. blainer says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bag of Pucks,

    you’re basing around McDavid, I’m basing around the roster

    the one where if you aren’t facing McDavid-Yak, you’re facing RNH-Eberle and if not them then Hall-Draisaitl

    Wow.. Now that sounds very exciting.. If we could get some goaltending.. then book the parade.!!

  149. jasper says:

    Hi LT – first time posting to your fantastic site.

    I usually agree with most of what you write, but my eyes tell me that the goalies are a major factor in where we are today. One cannot blame our hapless rearguards and lazy, non-backchecking non puck supporting forwards for the zero-angle goals that have occurred, especially at the end of the game (i.e. Calgary, LA, etc).

    Blame for most goals can be shared by many of those on the ice, but to use a Patriot catch phrase, we expect everyone to do their jobs. Letting goals in from behind the icing line is not doing one’s job.

  150. jasper says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Testify – core one is not a failure. Well said….

  151. Gret99zky says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Oh lovely. One of these train wreck threads again.

    Relax, people. 9-16 first 25. 12-13 next 25. 20-12 final 32.

    This team will turn things around very soon and you who cried wolf and called the core rotten will either go into hiding or be cocky as all hell about how good the team is again.

    I’m just floored that so many people wilfully ignore:
    1) rough schedule to start
    2) new goalies to get used to
    3) new coaches
    4) new systems
    5) poorly constructed bottom 6 when injuries hit
    6) injuries did hit. Big ones.
    7) post traumatic stress disorder from years of dysfunction
    8) unlearning bad hockey takes time
    9) learning good hockey takes time
    10) the D is full of holes.

    We knew ALL of this except for the extent of the injuries before the season started.

    Some of the panic is just ridiculous. This thing will turn north even without a trade and despite the weak D and all of a sudden people will be talking about changes etc., when there really won’t be anything new except the resolution of everything listed above except the D personnel. Playoff team? Heck no. Bettman .500 by end of year? I think so.

    So please back away from the ledge.

    Hasn’t this been said each year for about 7 straight years now?

  152. blainer says:

    Bag of Pucks: It really is an inexplicable groupthink. The team is a perennial cellar dweller but every core player, and even those trending towards busts, are each individually appraised as untouchable lynchpins?

    You would think this team is a 3 time Cup winner the way its core players are individually appraised and their apparent weaknesses excused.

    I’m saying all we really need is average goaltending. That and what LT said. Fix the bottom pairing. That shouldn’t be too hard. Sit Gryba try Reinhart with Shultz maybe or farm him.

    This team is sick and injured and has NO goaltending. That is the problem. We don’t really need to make a trade other than for an established Goaler and or a good possession D from the west.

    I was disappointed we never went after Michalek. If we had bought out ference and signed Michalek and put him in Gryba’s spot that alone would be huge.

  153. tcho says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Well put. Thanks for this.

  154. nelson88 says:

    hunter1909: Sutter put it best. Once RNH and SuperDave return, this team is going to be a monster.

    SuperDave – Love it! Can I attribute this to you going forward? These threads have become so long even I can’t waste my entire day reading them. Seriously folks, those of you with different opinions need to move along….;)

  155. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Oh lovely. One of these train wreck threads again.

    Relax, people. 9-16 first 25. 12-13 next 25. 20-12 final 32.

    This team will turn things around very soon and you who cried wolf and called the core rotten will either go into hiding or be cocky as all hell about how good the team is again.

    I’m just floored that so many people wilfully ignore:
    1) rough schedule to start
    2) new goalies to get used to
    3) new coaches
    4) new systems
    5) poorly constructed bottom 6 when injuries hit
    6) injuries did hit. Big ones.
    7) post traumatic stress disorder from years of dysfunction
    8) unlearning bad hockey takes time
    9) learning good hockey takes time
    10) the D is full of holes.

    We knew ALL of this except for the extent of the injuries before the season started.

    Some of the panic is just ridiculous. This thing will turn north even without a trade and despite the weak D and all of a sudden people will be talking about changes etc., when there really won’t be anything new except the resolution of everything listed above except the D personnel. Playoff team? Heck no. Bettman .500 by end of year? I think so.

    So please back away from the ledge.

    This is correct. What will this team actually look like when it’s healthy. We haven’t seen that yet. I would consider giving LB a quick look though.

  156. Lowetide says:

    jasper:
    Hi LT – first time posting to your fantastic site.

    I usually agree with most of what you write, but my eyes tell me that the goalies are a major factor in where we are today.One cannot blame our hapless rearguards and lazy, non-backchecking non puck supporting forwards for the zero-angle goals that have occurred, especially at the end of the game (i.e.Calgary, LA, etc).

    Blame for most goals can be shared by many of those on the ice, but to use a Patriot catch phrase, we expect everyone to do their jobs.Letting goals in from behind the icing line is not doing one’s job.

    Welcome!

    Absolutely agree. The goaltending has been poor. For me, however, it is unwise to flush Talbot and use a bunch more assets to bring in another guy who may well fail. The weight on our goalies is such that none of them have survived in now coming up on three seasons. Are the Oilers choosing the wrong guy THIS often? I can’t believe that, to be honest. Goalies in Edmonton get little support, start trying to do too much, and then start spiraling downward.

    Cam Talbot had .933 and. .923 SP’s in his first two games of the season. What happened to that guy? The Oilers happened to that guy. I’m saying when pucks go in from the side, or the moon, it’s because of shell shock, not because Cam Talbot can’t goal.

    Goaltending is a terrible problem, but so is whatever happens to perfectly able men who are brought in here. Something’s amiss. I think it’s partly the goalie, but history teaches us that when you replace one with another and the problem remains, it’s probably another part of the engine that is causing the issue (or contributing greatly to it).

    I don’t think the Oilers would be wise to give up the assets for Talbot and then flush him so early. This is a difficult team to play goal for, I think we can all agree on that one.

  157. Pouzar says:

    vangolf: looking at you Pouzar on this thread for example

    If the Oiler goaltenders are league we are not having this discussion. End. Of. Story.

    How do I look btw? *wink*

  158. Pouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Thats a ridiculous statement.No one is claiming most of these guys as untouchable.Its just that most people are actually realistic what these players would get back in return that they think its not worth trading that player.You think people are lining up to give up their #1 defenseman for Yak.Eberle is good at what he does but he’s not going to bring back anyone that will rescue this D-Corpse.Sure you can trade the Nuge, but then you got 2 rookie centermen and thats not a recipe for success, Neither is trading your best two way center.Hall could get a good defensemen back but I don’t think its the one youd want.
    The new GM just got here.He does need some time to evaluate what he has, what he needs, and how to get it.

    Shut it down folks. We have a winner.

  159. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: I have not oncesuggested that Yak or Eberle would ever net a #1D in trade on their own.

    You’re literally just making shit up.

    You haven’t suggested much of anything.

  160. blainer says:

    Lowetide: Welcome!

    Absolutely agree. The goaltending has been poor. For me, however, it is unwise to flush Talbot and use a bunch more assets to bring in another guy who may well fail. The weight on our goalies is such that none of them have survived in now coming up on three seasons. Are the Oilers choosing the wrong guy THIS often? I can’t believe that, to be honest. Goalies in Edmonton get little support, start trying to do too much, and then start spiraling downward.

    Cam Talbot had .933 and. .923 SP’s in his first two games of the season. What happened to that guy? The Oilers happened to that guy. I’m saying when pucks go in from the side, or the moon, it’s because of shell shock, not because Cam Talbot can’t goal.

    Goaltending is a terrible problem, but so is whatever happens to perfectly able men who are brought in here. Something’s amiss. I think it’s partly the goalie, but history teaches us that when you replace one with another and the problem remains, it’s probably another part of the engine that is causing the issue (or contributing greatly to it).

    I do agree about Talbot and actually feel for the guy.

    I expect him to bounce back. I know a three headed monster is a problem especially with ference but I would like to see LB here for a couple of games. He is just bursting with confidence right now.

    If he busts no big deal we just say you’re not quite ready but now you know what you are up against.

  161. Really? says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Hall, RNH, Eberle, Drai, Yak. For each and every one of these players, there is a sizeable contingent of posters on this board that squeal like weiners on the bbq should you have the unmitigated temerity to suggest a trade scenario involving one of these players. This despite the fact that not one of these players have won a single damn thing. Not a Calder, not an Art Ross, and certainly not a Stanley. Not even an effin Lady Byng.

    It can’t be emphasized enough. There is one untouchable / untradeableplayer in this franchise – Connor McDavid.

    Every other player on this roster could theoretically be traded for a superior player. To insist otherwise is disingenuous, biased, and foolhardy. Just stop insisting certain players are untouchable already. This is a place where logic is supposed to reign, not favouritism and bias.

    Totally agree with these comments. Players are assets to be used by management to improve the hockey club. Fans seem to have problems cutting the umbilical cord.

  162. Pouzar says:

    blainer: This is why I respond to your posts the most. You always say the correct things..

    Thx Dad!

    I kid I kid!!!

    Thanks man

  163. Genjutsu says:

    As bad as Talbot has been, and beers been awful, I’m not convinced he don’t turn it around. Or that it’s a problem with the team.

    Dubbie played well with our putrid defence before he sewered here.

    The sample is still small and goalies have these peaks and valleys in play.

    Also voodoo.

  164. Kmart99 says:

    CHI NJD…. Is there a win in there? Not sure there is. Could be 6-14 after 20. 8-12 would be a dream.

    Praying for a really strong run in games 21-30

    13-17 after 30 is what I’m hoping.
    14-16 is the miracle
    11-19 is what I expect. 🙁

  165. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Gret99zky: Hasn’t this been said each year for about 7 straight years now?

    I’m not sure what you mean by “this.”
    If you mean that the team will improve, I certainly did not have any confidence in prior years that things would get better. This season the Oilers are around the corner from being a better hockey club. Still too much weakness on the back end to consider this a 90pt+ team with a shot at the playoffs, but it will set the stage for next year.

    The right play for the Oilers is not to make a trade now from a position of weakness.

    It is to let the roster get healthy and the systems continue to develop and make an assessment in the offseason and trade from a position of strength.

    Let’s see how games 40-82 go with
    Hall-Nuge-Drai
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yak
    Hendricks-Lander-Eberle
    Slepyshev-Letestu-Korpikoski

    Klef-Sekera
    Nurse-Fayne
    Davidson/Reinhart-Schultz

    And let the goalies battle and find their way.

    The D isn’t great but the top 9 forwards suddenly become better and the 4 line may be ok in limited minutes. The goalies will get better and the systems will get better.

    Pump the tires of the forwards and then make a trade for a stronger D in the summer when needed. Man does losing Petry on that right side really sting.

  166. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: For me, however, it is unwise to flush Talbot and use a bunch more assets to bring in another guy who may well fail.

    Just so I am clear on the goaltending issue. I still believe Talbot can get it done. I am in no way suggesting we flush him. It’s a harsh regression (or free fall) to the meat but he has the tools.
    I am just pointing out the most glaring deficiency to actually winning games right now is a .899 save %. I will give Chia a full offseason with some actually $ before I get too excited about our D.

  167. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Really?: Totally agree with these comments. Players are assets to be used by management to improve the hockey club. Fans seem to have problems cutting the umbilical cord.

    I disagree with your comment; fans don’t have issues with trading players. Where many of us take exception is the timing.

    Right now the Oilers have zero leverage. None. Their player values other than perhaps Hall or Nuge are very low. Trading assets at low values will set this franchise back for years

    Petry wound up being a great example of devaluing a player and trading him for scraps. Would you give a 2nd and a 5th for an elite right handed #3 D? I would!

    What I am saying is not that you don’t trade players. You do in the summer, not now. Don’t sacrifice the long-term future now for short-term gain. We have suffered for a decade. After all that time now is not the time to switch to instant gratification mode. Be patient. We will be Islanders West soon and 40 more games with McDavid will do wonders for the likes of Yakupov or perhaps Eberle in terms of production and value around the league. And then make a trade for D in the summer when you’re on equal footing with other GMs with needs to fill.

    Who would want to help the Oilers now? No one. Vultures.

  168. frjohnk says:

    Goalies are voodoo.

    Bernier two years ago was probably a top 15 goalie in front of a bottom 3 team defense.

    This clip below pretty much sums up his 0-7, .895 season this year

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/gotta-see-it-stepan-beats-bernier-from-centre-ice/

  169. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    You sir have been fun to read over the last while.

    I agree with your sentiment. I am frustrated beyond the pale that goalers have snatched a couple of points but if one has actually watched the hockey games this year it is tough not to see glimmers of sunshine everywhere. IF one (preferably both) Nilsson or Talbot can shake their demons I believe the turn north will happen sooner rather than later. Three days off and then after Chicago its a tour of the east, there are lots of points to be won on this road trip and I hope the guys are ready to grab them.

    Also your story last week was first rate, It’s alway interesting to hear how people have started out down one road only to choose another at an intersection along the way and you have had a whirlwind 18 months or so. Best of luck to you and please keep the updates coming.

    One of the really cool features of this blog has to do with the commitment of the posters. I read this thing religiously and the appreciation I have gained for statistics has grown immensely thanks to the great work of GMoney, WG, LT FRJohn and Ricki, seriously guys, your work (while not the be all end all) has given me a much greater appreciation for the game of hockey and how we “see” and evaluate players.

  170. russ99 says:

    If this slow start leads to the Oilers launching MacTavish and Howson and letting Chiarelli bring his own guys in, which was pretty much shunned during the old-boy era, than it will be worth it.

    For those clamoring for a trade: how comfortable are you with MacT and Howson as the pro scouts weighing in on what we’ll get back? I sure ain’t…

    IMO, the old boy era isn’t over until they’re gone. Katz yet again gimping the hockey operations with his buddies.

  171. PhrankLee says:

    I’m with Mr Backpacker. The team is going to pain, suffer and slide. But will play well enough to threaten .500 hockey by years end. And with Mr. LT in the troops we went into the season with will not be the troops we end the season with.

    This was a funny Onionesque article on how to improve scoring across the league.

    http://teamstre.am/1HP9xD4

  172. Bag of Pucks says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    You know, in a weird way, I find myself in some agreement with BoP: he spends years here spouting homophobic, misogynistic crap, and very few say boo.But as soon as he proposes an ill-advised trade involving one of the Oilers’ best centres, people are jumping down his throat without taking turns; I admit that the vilification seems undue.

    Lots of drive-by insults masquerading as alleged rational discourse in this thread, but you can always count on a wannabe lawyer to set the character assassination bar the lowest.

    Folks, let us never forget that it’s the legal profession who foisted ‘political correctness’ on us in the first place. Seeking justice? Nah, seeking damages, thank you very much.

  173. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Lots of drive-by insults masquerading as alleged rational discourse in this thread, but you can always count on a wannabe lawyer to set the character assassination bar the lowest.

    Folks, let us never forget that it’s the legal profession who foisted ‘political correctness’ on us in the first place. Seeking justice? Nah, seeking damages, thank you very much.

    lol

  174. Ribs says:

    mm: there a veteran defenseman that could be available from and underachieving
    team that won’t cost us our top forwards right now ? Or am I way too optimistic ?

    Phaneuf? Tyutin, maybe? You could try to get someone out of Tampa right now, but it’s dangerous waters there. The trend with the underachieving teams is that there defense corps are suboptimal.

    I know! Smiiiiiiddddddd!! 🙂

  175. Ice Sage says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Oh lovely. One of these train wreck threads again.

    Relax, people. 9-16 first 25. 12-13 next 25. 20-12 final 32.

    This team will turn things around very soon and you who cried wolf and called the core rotten will either go into hiding or be cocky as all hell about how good the team is again.

    I’m just floored that so many people wilfully ignore:
    1) rough schedule to start
    2) new goalies to get used to
    3) new coaches
    4) new systems
    5) poorly constructed bottom 6 when injuries hit
    6) injuries did hit. Big ones.
    7) post traumatic stress disorder from years of dysfunction
    8) unlearning bad hockey takes time
    9) learning good hockey takes time
    10) the D is full of holes.

    We knew ALL of this except for the extent of the injuries before the season started.

    Some of the panic is just ridiculous. This thing will turn north even without a trade and despite the weak D and all of a sudden people will be talking about changes etc., when there really won’t be anything new except the resolution of everything listed above except the D personnel. Playoff team? Heck no. Bettman .500 by end of year? I think so.

    So please back away from the ledge.

    Agreed totally NYC, except I’d reclassify #7 as ‘learned helplessness’, which better explains that sense one gets that this team expects things to go poorly (Sigmund Todd has them slowly rising from the couch now… it’s a painful process, starting to believe again)

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