THIS MUCH MADNESS IS TOO MUCH SORROW

The Edmonton Oilers will return Justin Schultz to the lineup in the coming days, and it presents Peter Chiarelli with an opportunity. My guess is they’ll send Griffin Reinhart to the minors, or maybe they IR Eric Gryba, but there’s still some discovery to come and Schultz is part of that process.

FRIDAY NIGHT BLUES

oil nov 20 d

This is Friday night, apologies for the NJ lines but it seems Cammalleri was playing on two lines. The Oilers TOI at evens isn’t really indicative of overall play, it was a big night for special teams. Still, the fact that EV leaders were Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson is a tell, so we should acknowledge an unusual evening for the rookies.

I like the rookie pairing of Davidson—Reinhart more than Anything—Gryba, but PC needs to be aiming higher and the impending Schultz arrival gives him an opportunity to do it. If we assume that Todd McLellan would like to run fewer rookies, and that Darnell Nurse is his best one, then it’s possible we see the new V6 like this:

  • Klefbom—Fayne
  • Nurse—Sekera
  • Davidson—Schultz

With Gryba and Ference as the sitters and Griffin Reinhart in the minor leagues. That’s probably best case scenario, although I suspect Chiarelli (or someone) is pushing hard on the Gryba usage and that could lead to this:

  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Nurse—Gryba

I really don’t like that, for tons of reasons. First, Klefbom is free to wheel without Schultz, and if there’s one thing these games have shown it’s that the Swede has a wider range of skills than implied when alongside Schultz. The other item is this: The higher you play Justin Schultz in the lineup, the more you see chaos. I understand he was more controlled early this season, but Edmonton is more settled in the top four D now than they have been in some time.

You will read this week that Mark Fayne is not a good NHL defenseman, and that Justin Schultz has led the Oilers in TOI since pretty much the moment he got here, so why not give him his usage back! To both, I say it’s madness. Justin Schultz was asked to do too much and one hopes Todd McLellan employs Sekera and Fayne in feature roles RH side, with Schultz on the third pairing. Allow him to get comfortable and force his way up the depth chart. It’s the right thing to do.

chiarelli capture draft

HAMONIC

  • Jeff Simmons: Ideally, the Islanders would love to acquire ascending young defenceman Darnell Nurse in a trade but a more realistic scenario could involve a package including forward Jordan Eberle and defenceman Justin Schultz. Source

I don’t know that the Oilers can make a trade like the one suggested, the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues. Elliotte Friedman’s comment about a three-way trade makes sense, but I still believe this ends up Hamonic in Minnesota.

nurse condors

CONDORS GAME DAY

Lots of chatter on the blog about ‘no prospects of note in the AHL beyond Brossoit’ and I get that, but it’s also true that there are performances worthy of your consideration. Among the forward group, and I always look for even-strength scoring as the purest way to suss things out, we are seeing some players emerge:

  1. Josh Winquist 8GP, 3-3-6 (.75 points-per-game)
  2. Jujhar Khaira 14GP, 3-3-6 (.43 points-per-game)
  3. Alexis Loiseau 7GP, 1-2-3 (.43 points-per-game)
  4. Kale Kessy 12GP, 2-3-5 (.42 points-per-game)
  5. Mitchell Moroz 14GP, 2-3-5 (.36 points-per-game)
  6. Bogdan Yakimov 12GP, 2-2-4 (.33 points-per-game)
  7. Marco Roy 3GP, 1-0-1 (.33 points-per-game)

This pulls all of the power-play points away (none of these men are going to be on an NHL PP in the near or likely distant future) and gives us some idea about their overall offensive quality in the fairest available way. So, first up is a guy the Oilers didn’t draft and haven’t signed, Josh Winquist. That’s so Oilers! He looks like a legit prospect from here, his skating must be the issue because in talking to scouts they rave about his ability to play the actual game.

Alexis Loiseau is another of those free-agent signings and—this is early days—we do see a spark from him offensively. Jujhar Khaira is in his second pro season and some are touting him as an emerging offensive talent, but we have a fairly large book on him that suggests otherwise. These kids can fool us, but I think it’s best to have him show something like >.7 even-strength points-per-game over a season before we begin to project him into the NHL for anything beyond a cup of coffee.

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166 Responses to "THIS MUCH MADNESS IS TOO MUCH SORROW"

  1. Really? says:

    I recently heard an interview of Leon Draisaitl wherein he explained that his last summer’s work-out regimen focussed on developing leg strength and improving his first step quickness. To date, this would appear to have been extremely successful. Would a similar program benefit Reinhart?

  2. flyfish1168 says:

    I truly don’t believe the eastern conference reporters respect how good Jordan is. Jordan alone is an over payment 2x, no disrespect to Travis. Schultz for Travis straight up is all I would be willing to give. each have their weakness and the are basically the opposite of each other in their areas of strengths

  3. serum114 says:

    If there is something around the purported Eberle-Schultz combo, what if a decent 2/3 line winger was coming back with Hamonic. Would Hamonic-Bailey be a package to match 14-19? If a downgrade at F allowed for an upgrade at D, would that kind of deal be worth pursuing?

  4. Lowetide says:

    serum114:
    If there is something around the purported Eberle-Schultz combo, what if a decent 2/3 line winger was coming back with Hamonic. Would Hamonic-Bailey be a package to match 14-19? If a downgrade at F allowed for an upgrade at D, would that kind of deal be worth pursuing?

    Sure. Hamonic-Strome for Schultz-Eberle but I don’t think the money works. I like Hamonic a lot, but retaining some money on Eberle is crazy imo, and I don’t believe Okposo is a lock to sign here so that’s not an avenue either.

  5. Sugar Reijo says:

    flyfish1168,

    Based on his contractual situation alone Hamonic’s worth more than just Schultz.

    That said, am hoping Chiarelli’s reading the market correctly here and can get him for not that much more. What manna from the Gords that would be.

  6. blainer says:

    One of the best posts I’ve seen you write on the D.

    Your assessment on the first set of D is bang on and well explained.

    I also agree with your take on the second pairings.

    The coaching has to see these issues staring them in the face as well I hope. We are playing a tough offensive team on Monday and need to make the correct decisions on D.

    See griff getting sent down. This will be good for him.

    Davidson is starting to play like our version of TJ Brodie. You do not sit that guy.

  7. tapper says:

    Nurse and Klefbom are developing 2-dimensional, offensively and defensively-capable, defencemen. You cannot overstate the value of that type of player.

    Hamonic is so obviously a 1-dimensional defencemen…he’s good at that part of the game no doubt, but he’s 1-dimensional.

    You don’t trade the former for the latter in a 1-for-1 deal. It’s pretty obvious.

  8. fuzzy muppet says:

    Lowetide,

    What about a Schultz-Yakupov package? The money matches a bit better and clearly Yakupov is going to be the odd man out in the future. His value alone isn’t going to bring in what you need but packaged with schultz and maybe a prospect/pick would work.

    I think Schultz’s style of play would suit an eastern conference team well.

  9. zatch says:

    With respect to one Mr. THEBEAR, I see how Gryba can box guys out well. The issue is that’s all he can do, and his offence does not exists. Rarely see a vet so transparently scared to have the puck. Yost has bad food opinions but he was 100% accurate with Gryba. As you’d expect.

    I am not as on board the Eberle train as some. Ebs is a guy who I always think could fall off at any moment, and I’d like to sell high on him. That said I think Eberle and Shcultz for Hamonic better bring back something else from Brooklyn too. Asking for Nurse for Hamonic is a joke, and the other half of that might as well be Eberle for Tavares.

    Is a Klef for Hamonic trade something worth looking at? You have to give to get, often. Nurse is the kind of D you never let go of once you find him. Klef for Hamonic could be comparable and really steady the blue.

  10. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    The right time to trade for Hamonic, in my opinion is at the draft. Let Snow stew for a while. Which western team is going to be able to offer what he wants? I don’t see it. Winnipeg has Trouba and Myers but why would they trade one of them for Hamonic? Vancouver has Tanev but same goes for that.

    Snow will lose more leverage as time goes on.

  11. blainer says:

    serum114:
    If there is something around the purported Eberle-Schultz combo, what if a decent 2/3 line winger was coming back with Hamonic. Would Hamonic-Bailey be a package to match 14-19? If a downgrade at F allowed for an upgrade at D, would that kind of deal be worth pursuing?

    The only advantage I see in that trade is moving Shultz. Addition by subtraction.

    I am happy to stand pat for now and wait for the team to get healthy.

    The only trade I would say yes to is Yak Shultz and our first for Hamonic.. suspect that has already been offered.

    We need to score and trading Ebs only creates problems in that area.

  12. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    zatch,

    No to trading Klefbom for Hamonic. Just no.

  13. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    Yak, Schultz AND a 1st? That’s overpayment. Doubt that has been offered.

  14. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Davidson is starting to play like our version of TJ Brodie. You do not sit that guy.

    Yup.

    Loved my live viewing of Davidson in WPG albeit preseason. He was their best d-man that night. Love what he brings. With Nurse, Klef, and Davidson we have a “puck movement by committee” thing happening right now. Last year this team was devoid of offense from the blue line now it looks like we are getting some nice contributions there.

  15. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    The way I see it, Chia’s 20 game assessment reveals three pairs that form the basis for a strong attack:
    Hall and Drai
    Nuge and Eberle
    Yak and McDavid
    I doubt he breaks those up at this stage.

  16. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    The right time to trade for Hamonic, in my opinion is at the draft. Let Snow stew for a while. Which western team is going to be able to offer what he wants? I don’t see it. Winnipeg has Trouba and Myers but why would they trade one of them for Hamonic? Vancouver has Tanev but same goes for that.

    Snow will lose more leverage as time goes on.

    I agree. Suspect Snow would rather run this group anyway, in hopes that a strong playoff may change minds.

  17. frjohnk says:

    Sugar Reijo: Based on his contractual situation alone Hamonic’s worth more than just Schultz.

    Hamonic is on one of the best value contracts off of ELC in the league.

    3.8M AAV until 2020.

    If somehow the Oilers could keep Sekara, Klefbom, Nurse and get Hamonic. You then have a top 4 that is not bottom feeders now and could be near the top league in the near future.

    and we would not be breaking the bank with this top 4. The year that McDavid gets paid, you could give Nurse a bridge contract and our top 4 D would cost.
    Klefbom 4.1
    Hamonic 3.8
    Sekara 5.5
    Nurse 3.0

    Thats 16.4M for the top 4. Not out of the question that the 7D cost just over 20 M. That would leave enough money to have 3 unicorn lines up front.

  18. zatch says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Fair opinion, but what’s the justification? I don’t not believe you but I see a lot to like in such a deal.

  19. oliveoilers says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    The right time to trade for Hamonic, in my opinion is at the draft. Let Snow stew for a while. Which western team is going to be able to offer what he wants? I don’t see it. Winnipeg has Trouba and Myers but why would they trade one of them for Hamonic? Vancouver has Tanev but same goes for that.

    Snow will lose more leverage as time goes on.

    I agree.

    The longer this goes, the more resentment will creep in. Hamonic will start to wonder exactly how hard Snow is working to trade him.

    The time for Snow to maximise was the instant Hamonic put in his request, before anybody had time to digest, or even find out about it.

    Things are all lovey-dovey now, but if this goes on another month, shit will turn sour.

    Heard Wild are interested. That’s clearly not western Canada. And if you include Them, why not the Avs? Package for Duchene?

  20. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    zatch,

    Klefbom is signed for a longer term and is younger. He has barely played one full season in the NHL and has shown the skills he has are tremendous. I don’t think we have seen the best of Klefbom yet. We know what we have in Hamonic, and he is very good, but I see Klefbom’s upside as being higher. He has way more offense to him than the numbers in Sweden suggested.

    Mostly I think it comes down to robbing Peter to pay Paul.

  21. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    blainer,

    Yak, Schultz AND a 1st? That’s overpayment. Doubt that has been offered.

    Ya I was thinking after I wrotre that.. Maybe Yak Shultz and our first for Hamonic and their 2nd.

    With a trade of Hamonic and the return of CMD they might even beat your expectations and draft lower. We just came out of the toughest part of the schedule.

  22. Lowetide says:

    I think Eberle gets you Hamonic, no? Yeah, I think that’s probably true. Now, whether you want that deal is another matter.

  23. blainer says:

    Lowetide: I agree. Suspect Snow would rather run this group anyway, in hopes that a strong playoff may change minds.

    Unless Hamonic is just posturing in order to help Snow out. Things change and he may end up making it a demand if something happens with his personal problem. It happens.

    If not I agree I think this will get settled at the draft.

    At that time the oil may not even be interested if the D all of a sudden comes together. We do have some nice things happening back there.

  24. LostBoy says:

    Heard Wild are interested.That’s clearly not western Canada.

    I think it’s because Minnesota is a short direct flight from Winnipeg where his family situation is. It’s the closest NHL city to Winnipeg. [Edit to say I do realize Minnesota is a state; Minneapolis/St. Paul I mean.]

  25. frjohnk says:

    tapper: Hamonic is so obviously a 1-dimensional defencemen…he’s good at that part of the game no doubt, but he’s 1-dimensional.

    1-dimensional

    Huh?

    Offensively

    5 on 5
    He is 27th in points per 60 since the start of last year. Just a hair below offensive minded D men, Pietrangelo at 1.13 and Hamilton and Shattenkirk who are both at 1.11.

    He is 30th in creating scoring chances with 59.

    And he is even better defensively.

    He can push the play offensively and defensively.

  26. LostBoy says:

    Eberle for Hamonic in a trade request situation is an overpay (arguably an overpay even if Snow wasn’t in a spot).

    Eberle’s production has waxed and waned with his early injuries and slow starts. It’s easy as a fanbase to somewhat undervalue him right now. He’s 7th in the NHL in RW boxcars over the preceding three seasons (according to nhl.com’s version of RW), ony 8 points behind Corey Perry.

    Would you trade Corey Perry straight up for Travis Hamonic?

  27. oliveoilers says:

    LostBoy: I think it’s because Minnesota is a short direct flight from Winnipeg where his family situation is.It’s the closest NHL city to Winnipeg.

    Agreed, but make one allowance, and why not make more?

  28. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Yup.

    Loved my live viewing of Davidson in WPG albeit preseason. He was their best d-man that night. Love what he brings. With Nurse, Klef, and Davidson we have a “puck movement by committee” thing happening right now. Last year this team was devoid of offense from the blue line now it looks like we are getting some nice contributions there.

    I actually commented last spring that I thought Davidson was our best D along with Nurse during the Baron’s playoff run.

    You can tell he has really worked on his shot and skating in the offseason.

    An excellent drafted and developed D for the OIL.. WoW !!

    Wonder when they trade him for a 2nd and 5th ?

    Thank Gord Mact is not making that decision. I think !!

  29. godot10 says:

    zatch:

    Is a Klef for Hamonic trade something worth looking at? You have to give to get, often. Nurse is the kind of D you never let go of once you find him. Klef for Hamonic could be comparable and really steady the blue.

    Klefbom is already better than Hamonic, and signed for 3 more years than Hamonic at an attractive price point.

    7 years of Klefbom >> 4 years of Hamonic.

    Klefbom is signed through all the critical contract decisions on Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins. Hamonic’s contract would expire right in the middle of that and would require a big raise.

    If one is building around the McDavid/Draisaitl, Klefbom on a ability and contract is far superior to Hamonic.

  30. Mr DeBakey says:

    LostBoy: I think it’s because Minnesota is a short direct flight from Winnipeg where his family situation is. It’s the closest NHL city to Winnipeg.

    Jared Spurgeon, Welcome to Brooklyn!

    * * * *

    For the Oilers the play is
    – Slepyshev
    – Any RHD in the org or Reinhart or Davidson
    – If necessary a pick, 2nd or later

  31. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Eberle gets you Hamonic, no? Yeah, I think that’s probably true. Now, whether you want that deal is another matter.

    I want to see Eberle with McDavid. I think those two could be dynamite.

  32. hags9k says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Eberle gets you Hamonic, no? Yeah, I think that’s probably true. Now, whether you want that deal is another matter.

    I’ll pass. Just don’t see Harmonic as THEE guy we need. A solid add he would be, but not at that price.

  33. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Eberle gets you Hamonic, no? Yeah, I think that’s probably true. Now, whether you want that deal is another matter.

    EDM: Hamonic
    WPG: Eberle
    NYI: Myers

  34. JDï™ says:

    Sorry, but this goal is just ridiculous: https://streamable.com/n2sr

    /derail

  35. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Which western Canadian team can offer more than, say, Schultz, a mid-first, and a second or a prospect at the draft?

    Plus Chia and Snow have a trade history already. Chia helped him out with Boychuk and gave him a great package for Reinhart. I like our chances for a little reciprocity if we wait.

    I can’t see any D better than Schultz being offered by Calgary, Winnipeg, or Vancouver. If Minny is in they do have Spurgeon.

    Brodie, Gio, Edler, Tanev, Trouba, Myers won’t move for Hamonic as they are lateral moves at best or they are old enough and expensive enough (Gio, Edler) that Snow won’t want that. He might not be able to get a better offer than Schultz, a 1st and a 2nd.

  36. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Eberle gets you Hamonic, no? Yeah, I think that’s probably true. Now, whether you want that deal is another matter.

    The Islanders view themselves as a contender. Losing a D for an expensive forward in-season makes them a pretender.

    In the off-season, after they lose Okposo to UFA, and they have time to make other moves to get a replacement D, than an Eberle for Hamonic deal makes sense for them.

    In-season, Hamonic isn’t being traded unless a D is coming back, IMHO. So 1) it is Minnesota or 2) someone else puts together a three-way or 3) Chiarelli/Treliving/Chevy loses their minds and do something stupid.

  37. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10,

    I already replied to zatch on that one and am not going to pile on further, and I agree with all your points except the one where you say Klefbom is already better. His sample size is still small. I do believe he is going to become the better of the two but it’s a little premature to say he is already better, in my opinion

  38. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Pouzar: EDM: Hamonic
    WPG: Eberle
    NYI: Myers

    You really think Winnipeg gives up on Myers this soon? I’m curious since you know the Jets well. If Buff is gone and Enstrom rumours have substance then who drives the offense on the back end for them? Myers no?

  39. SVR says:

    Pouzar: EDM: Hamonic
    WPG: Eberle
    NYI: Myers

    If we are sending Eberle to Winnipeg, I think I would rather just get Myers back to us straight up. I rank him ahead of Hamonic

  40. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Sure. Hamonic-Strome for Schultz-Eberle but I don’t think the money works. I like Hamonic a lot, but retaining some money onEberle is crazy imo, and I don’t believe Okposo is a lock to sign here so that’s not an avenue either.

    The Isles have $5.5m in cap space, so the money works this year cap wise. If Okposo leaves this summer, the Islanders shouldn’t have long term issues either.

    Internal budget may be another question, but I don’t see the cap as a barrier.

  41. SwedishPoster says:

    On the subject of D-men I’ve finished the first 20 games of my puckgain-project. I had to go back and rewatch the Montreal game since I didn’t do the numbers for that game the first time around and the second half of the Arizona game since I lost focus due to the game being such a boring piece of hockey.

    If you guys remember the idea is to look at every play by an Oiler D at even strength that leads to the Oilers regaining the puck, any hit, poke check, take away, read or won battle that leads to any Oiler player getting the puck under control, either the D-man himself or a teammate.

    The total number of puckgains after 20 games:

    Klefbom: 112
    Sekera: 72
    Gryba: 68
    Davidson: 49
    Fayne: 48
    Schultz: 45
    Nurse: 45
    Reihart: 30
    Ference: 14

    Puckgains/15 mins:

    Klefbom: 4.9
    Schultz: 4.6
    Davidson: 4.3
    Nurse: 3.4
    Sekera: 3.4
    Gryba: 3.3
    Ference: 3.1
    Fayne: 3.0
    Reinhart: 2.7

    Or as puckgains/60:

    Klefbom: 19.6
    Schultz: 18.4
    Davidson: 17.3
    Nurse: 13.7
    Sekera: 13.5
    Gryba: 13.2
    Ference: 12.5
    Fayne: 11.9
    Reinhart: 10.7

    I don’t know what’s preferable /15 or /60. The former is closer to ES toi for a game but /60 gives better seperation between the players. Suggestions?

    A couple of things.

    -When the Oiler are playing really well during games there are very few regains since they carry the puck a lot, forechecks well which means the forwards get the puck back and forces dump ins from the other team and I don’t count the plays where a D just skates back and easily gathers the puck.

    -However the number is also low when the Oilers are struggling, since they can’t get the puck back.

    -When a player has a lot of regains it usually matches fairly well with him playing well by eye.

    -…however at times it’s also about the team struggling to exit the own zone so they have to get the puck back several times just to lose it again.

    -Part of it is style as well. Klefbom has a very proactive style where he’s aggressive in closing gaps and trying to get the puck back. Davidson has a similar style. Sekera on the other hand lets the game come to him more, though he has had a higher number the last few games which actually matches him playing better by eye.

    -Fayne had a very up and down start, but since being paired with Klefbom he’s increased his number.

    -Schultz is a bit of a surprise but he’s also fairly active. Him and Klefbom tends to be overaggressive in their pursuit of the puck which gets them in trouble at times. Guys like Sekera and Fayne aren’t as eager to get the puck back right away but can be a tad passive imo. As always it’s about balance. Ideally you want your D to get the puck back aggressively but without the breakdowns and I guess the key is to know when to force the issue and when to just keep play on the outside.

    -Reinharts best games are when he is more aggressive, he generally is too far from the play, sometimes he’s not involved for a whole game and I’d argue part of that is skating, part of it is confidence and the game needing to slow down for him.

  42. flyfish1168 says:

    Sugar Reijo:
    flyfish1168,

    Based on his contractual situation alone Hamonic’s worth more than just Schultz.

    That said, am hoping Chiarelli’s reading the market correctly here and can get him for not that much more. What manna from the Gords that would be.

    Good point but Travis requested a trade. This brings his value down.question us by how much. Jordan is for sure a major overpay even just by himself.

  43. Lowetide says:

    godot10: The Islanders view themselves as a contender.Losing a D for an expensive forward in-season makes them a pretender.

    In the off-season, after they lose Okposo to UFA, and they have time to make other moves to get a replacement D, than an Eberle for Hamonic deal makes sense for them.

    In-season, Hamonic isn’t being traded unless a D is coming back, IMHO.So 1)it is Minnesota or 2) someone else puts together a three-way or 3) Chiarelli/Treliving/Chevy loses their minds and do something stupid.

    That’s a really good summary. I wish Schultz was a better player, he’s the ideal fit but there’s too much chaos.

  44. blainer says:

    Backpacker..

    I would be over the moon if that trade happened. Just don’t see it.

    Shultz is an RFA with back problems… Back problems are most often Chronic and career ending .. have some experience with this problem. have had sciatica for 15 years now.. .

    I wouldn’t make that trade if I were snow. Picks won’t do it .. he will want help now I think.

  45. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: That’s a really good summary. I wish Schultz was a better player, he’s the ideal fit but there’s too much chaos.

    Nononono – he’ll play much better on a more balanced team, and become the Norris candidate we all know and love.

    Right guys? Guys…?

  46. oliveoilers says:

    godot10: The Islanders view themselves as a contender.Losing a D for an expensive forward in-season makes them a pretender.

    In the off-season, after they lose Okposo to UFA, and they have time to make other moves to get a replacement D, than an Eberle for Hamonic deal makes sense for them.

    In-season, Hamonic isn’t being traded unless a D is coming back, IMHO.So 1)it is Minnesota or 2) someone else puts together a three-way or 3) Chiarelli/Treliving/Chevy loses their minds and do something stupid.

    This is an excellent assessment and would normally be true, except for the fact the Isles aren’t shopping him; he requested a trade. He made a stipulation; a western Canadian team. He gave a reason; an intensely personal family problem.

    As I’ve said, the longer this goes, the worse it will be for Snow. He needs to reap good-will now and get a return at a small loss. It’s awesome at the moment, because everybody is being adult about it. But a few weeks from now, when his agent is calling Snow to see where his client may end up and when, things might not be so Christmassy.

    Not looking to rob them, but we, more than any other team, know about trade requests. And Hammy ain’t CFP.

    Snow’s looking for a lateral move (or possibly to upgrade, which might well piss other GMs off as this is clearly his problem) to teams with no pressing need to make one, other than it’s doing him a favour.

    This sucks for Snow, but whattya gonna do?

  47. blainer says:

    JDï™: Nononono – he’ll play much better on a more balanced team, and become the Norris candidate we all know and love.

    Right guys? Guys…?

    He WILL look better in the east !

  48. Lowetide says:

    JDï™: Nononono – he’ll play much better on a more balanced team, and become the Norris candidate we all know and love.

    Right guys? Guys…?

    Well, and I know you’re joking a little, but yes, I think you make a great point. Schultz on a substantially better defensive team is very likely to flourish and the EC offers fertile opportunities. Go east, young man!

  49. blainer says:

    SwedishPoster:
    On the subject of D-men I’ve finished the first 20 games of my puckgain-project. I had to go back and rewatch the Montreal game since I didn’t do the numbers for that game the first time around and the second half of the Arizona game since I lost focus due to the game being such a boring piece of hockey.

    If you guys remember the idea is to look at every play by an Oiler D at even strength that leads to the Oilers regaining the puck, any hit, poke check, take away, read or won battle that leads to any Oiler player getting the puck under control, either the D-man himself or a teammate.

    The total number of puckgains after 20 games:

    Klefbom: 112
    Sekera: 72
    Gryba: 68
    Davidson: 49
    Fayne: 48
    Schultz: 45
    Nurse: 45
    Reihart: 30
    Ference: 14

    Puckgains/15 mins:

    Klefbom: 4.9
    Schultz: 4.6
    Davidson: 4.3
    Nurse: 3.4
    Sekera: 3.4
    Gryba: 3.3
    Ference: 3.1
    Fayne: 3.0
    Reinhart: 2.7

    Or as puckgains/60:

    Klefbom: 19.6
    Schultz: 18.4
    Davidson: 17.3
    Nurse: 13.7
    Sekera: 13.5
    Gryba: 13.2
    Ference: 12.5
    Fayne: 11.9
    Reinhart: 10.7

    I don’t know what’s preferable /15 or /60. The former is closer to ES toi for a game but /60 gives better seperation between the players. Suggestions?

    A couple of things.

    -When the Oiler are playing really well during games there are very few regains since they carry the puck a lot, forechecks well which means the forwards get the puck back and forces dump ins from the other team and I don’t count the plays where a D just skates back and easily gathers the puck.

    -However the number is also low when the Oilers are struggling, since they can’t get the puck back.

    -When a player has a lot of regains it usually matches fairly well with him playing well by eye.

    -…however at times it’s also about the team struggling to exit the own zone so they have to get the puck back several times just to lose it again.

    -Part of it is style as well. Klefbom has a very proactive style where he’s aggressive in closing gaps and trying to get the puck back. Davidson has a similar style. Sekera on the other hand lets the game come to him more, though he has had a higher number the last few games which actually matches him playing better by eye.

    -Fayne had a very up and down start, but since being paired with Klefbom he’s increased his number.

    -Schultz is a bit of a surprise but he’s also fairly active. Him and Klefbom tends to be overaggressive in their pursuit of the puck which gets them in trouble at times. Guys like Sekera and Fayne aren’t as eager to get the puck back right away but can be a tad passive imo. As always it’s about balance. Ideally you want your D to get the puck back aggressively but without the breakdowns and I guess the key is to know when to force the issue and when to just keep play on the outside.

    -Reinharts best games are when he is more aggressive, he generally is too far from the play, sometimes he’s not involved for a whole game and I’d argue part of that is skating, part of it is confidence and the game needing to slow down for him.

    This is very interesting work.

    Reinhart is not looking good in any of our fancy stats. Kinda funny as to me he really hasn’t looked to bad by eye.

    Whereas Klef looks good in most stats and also by eye.

    Nurse will be a number one D by seasons end. Book it !

  50. Eastern Oil says:

    godot10,

    I have to say, since you have stepped off the Eakins train you have been killing it. I really enjoy reading your posts. Another fine poster among many here at LT.

  51. Eastern Oil says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Fantastic stuff, thank you very much for doing this, very interesting. It is work like this that allows us to form better opinions on Dman since they can be a bit of voodoo like goalies sometimes. It requires a lot of time and effort however, and I commend you.

    Similar but different, I actually really enjoy reading Staple’s scoring chances work but when he gets on the anti-Corsi train I tend to gloss over.

  52. russ99 says:

    I love how everyone is ready to give up on Schultz after 9 games where he’s played well in our zone.

    I hope he’s with Davidson, as he’s much more stabile at the back than Klefbom.

    godot10: Klefbom is already better than Hamonic, and signed for 3 more years than Hamonic at an attractive price point.

    7 years of Klefbom >> 4 years of Hamonic.

    Klefbom is signed through all the critical contract decisions on Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins.Hamonic’s contract would expire right in the middle of that and would require a big raise.

    If one is building around the McDavid/Draisaitl, Klefbom on a abilityand contract is far superior to Hamonic.

    Not in our zone, where we need the most help.

    What happened to us, back in the day we’d be falling over ourselves to send a Swedish kid with skill and an incomplete game in the back for a proven Western Canadian kid who separates the puck from forwards, hits like a hammer has an cannon of a shot and would make our goalies’ life much easier.

    Fancystats…

  53. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    All good points. But if a better deal doesn’t come along, Snow is going to be in a tough spot come the draft.

  54. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Go east, young man!

    Schultz will return to a team playing better than when he left. So he might just play his way east, considering the early flashes of ‘who is wearing #19, and what have they done with Justin’ that we saw early on.

    He very well could have been playing hurt for a while before going on IR, because he took what I thought was a very heavy hit from Backes spits that could have started the back problems.

    Failing that, Chiarelli could always resort to listing players who go elsewhere and play better. There are many ways to get this deal done.

  55. Edgar says:

    oliveoilers: This is an excellent assessment and would normally be true, except for the fact the Isles aren’t shopping him; he requested a trade.He made a stipulation; a western Canadian team.He gave a reason; an intensely personal family problem.

    As I’ve said, the longer this goes, the worse it will be for Snow.He needs to reap good-will now and get a return at a small loss.It’s awesome at the moment, because everybody is being adult about it.But a few weeks from now, when his agent is calling Snow to see where his client may end up and when, things might not be so Christmassy.

    Not looking to rob them, but we, more than any other team, know about trade requests.And Hammy ain’t CFP.

    Snow’s looking for a lateral move (or possibly to upgrade, which might well piss other GMs off as this is clearly his problem) to teams with no pressing need to make one, other than it’s doing him a favour.

    This sucks for Snow, but whattya gonna do?

    Olive has it. Hamonic will be staying in Brooklyn as long as Snow’s ask is Hamonic for another Hamonic. He is bringing nothing to the table. A multi-team deal works to shuffle cap / contract / age concerns but any trade requires each party to accept a different return than what they’re offering. Snow is asking for a favour at the best or even a straight up gift. Not likely to happen.

    My guess is the leak came from the Hamonic camp. A private trade request doesn’t exist. Now it does. If Snow were working to move Hamonic, the rumor crickets would be in full song rather than dead silence. Leaking the request is the only leverage Hamonic has short of leaving the team. Prior to the leak, Snow had no impetus to trade Hamonic – he was only spending Hamonic’s good will. Now he’s spending the good will of both the players on his team and those throughout the rest of the league.

    (Long time lurker – my first real post. Hi guys.)

  56. rickithebear says:

    Last 4 years:
    #Tavares 121G #6 280P #5
    17gm 9G 9A 18p facing 217th comp (3rd) right there with Benn and Seguin for comp.

    Eberle one of 10 fwds in game with 102+G 241+P
    102G #16 tied with P.Kane
    241P #16 tied with Pavelski
    3G in 7gm facing the 7th hardest comp in league 15-16
    Top 10 scoring and PvP

    Harmonic has below Average defending stats thru his career
    This year he is 10.93 #116 HSCA60 vs #26 comp
    Schultz 12.02 #163 HSCA60 vs #16 comp

    When you look at our comp faced.
    it is obvious we have faced a large portion of the toughest comp teams for the year.

    Comp – HSCA60 Rank 194 D
    Klefbom #2 toughest comp in league 9.10 #48 HSCA60
    Fayne #8 comp – 8.05 #22 HSCA60
    Schultz #16 comp – 12.02 #163
    Reinhart #64 comp – 11.25 #127
    Gryba #82 comp – 13.81
    Davidson #107 comp – 10.01 #77 HSCA60
    Sekera #141 comp – 10.78 #107 HSCA60
    Nurse #158 comp – 12.27

    I would expect Tavares and Hamonic coming Back in anything involving Eberle and Schultz +

    Might want to look at actual results and defensive facts.

    Cause!
    Opinion; def: Point of view not based on facts or knowledge.

  57. Armchair GM says:

    It seems to be common knowledge that the Western Conference is stronger than the East yet that doesn’t seem to be used as a basis for mathematically analyzing a potential change of conference by a player. Is there value in doing all of the fancy stats for a player vs teams in the other conference (ie. Shultz on the Oilers vs the east and Hamonic on the Isles vs the west) to get a better idea of how they may fare? I’m thinking that the Fayne love may have been tempered a tad if that type of analysis had been made at the time that he was available (or not, maybe he/NJ did great against the west).

    Lots of fancy stats treats the NHL as a one-size-fits-all league but each team has an unbalanced schedule which creates micro-environments with which teams operate. Perhaps the sample sizes become too small to be valid if these types of sub-sets are taken into consideration? Just asking.

  58. Ryan says:

    Armchair GM:
    It seems to be common knowledge that the Western Conference is stronger than the East yet that doesn’t seem to be used as a basis for mathematically analyzing a potential change of conference by a player.Is there value in doing all of the fancy stats for a player vs teams in the other conference (ie. Shultz on the Oilers vs the east and Hamonic on the Isles vs the west) to get a better idea of how they may fare?I’m thinking that the Fayne love may have been tempered a tad if that type of analysis had been made at the time that he was available (or not, maybe he/NJ did great against the west).

    Lots of fancy stats treats the NHL as a one-size-fits-all league but each team has an unbalanced schedule which creates micro-environments with which teams operate.Perhaps the sample sizes become too small to be valid if these types of sub-sets are taken into consideration?Just asking.

    Someone with time on their hands could parse Fayne’s Devils stats vs East and Wc teams or for Hamonic. Interesting thought…

  59. rickithebear says:

    Armchair GM:
    It seems to be common knowledge that the Western Conference is stronger than the East yet that doesn’t seem to be used as a basis for mathematically analyzing a potential change of conference by a player.Is there value in doing all of the fancy stats for a player vs teams in the other conference (ie. Shultz on the Oilers vs the east and Hamonic on the Isles vs the west) to get a better idea of how they may fare?I’m thinking that the Fayne love may have been tempered a tad if that type of analysis had been made at the time that he was available (or not, maybe he/NJ did great against the west).

    Lots of fancy stats treats the NHL as a one-size-fits-all league but each team has an unbalanced schedule which creates micro-environments with which teams operate.Perhaps the sample sizes become too small to be valid if these types of sub-sets are taken into consideration?Just asking.

    Would love to see top players from KHL coming to WC
    vs
    EC top performers results in the WC.

  60. russ99 says:

    Using shot based metrics to judge the value of very different kinds of defensmen is an exercise in futility.

    Plus the other 9 men on the ice have as much or more contribution towards those shot values as the player does.

    So yes, the numbers may not be telling the whole story here.

  61. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Eberle gets you Hamonic, no? Yeah, I think that’s probably true. Now, whether you want that deal is another matter.

    But Eberle isn’t the immediate replacement RHD Snow is rumoured to have asked for.

    Drance says Snow wants Brodie out of Calgary for Hamonic.

    He’s shooting for the moon.

    The STL/NYI/EDM one looks intriguing. Send an extra forward to STL who send Shattenkirk to NYI who send Hamonic to EDM.

    Oilers use STL as a currency exchange partner to get Snow the asset he requires. Maybe they pay a small prospect fee along the way (Slepyshev?).

    That kind of deal gets Hamonic and Snow what they want, not sure how it would work for the Blues, but it is one interesting possible partner.

  62. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: You really think Winnipeg gives up on Myers this soon? I’m curious since you know the Jets well.

    It’s not that they would be giving up on Meyers so much as getting the Top 6 forward they have been reported to be in the market for. Eberle gives them a much needed uptick in skill.

  63. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: But Eberle isn’t the immediate replacement RHD Snow is rumoured to have asked for.

    Drance says Snow wants Brodie out of Calgary for Hamonic.

    He’s shooting for the moon.

    The STL/NYI/EDM one looks intriguing. Send an extra forward to STL who send Shattenkirk to NYI who send Hamonic to EDM.

    Oilers use STL as a currency exchange partner to get Snow the asset he requires. Maybe they pay a small prospect fee along the way (Slepyshev?).

    That kind of deal gets Hamonic and Snow what they want, not sure how it would work for the Blues, but it is one interesting possible partner.

    I actually just wrote about the NYI and they could use Eberle based on a quick look-see
    http://oilersnation.com/2015/11/22/bubbling-under-4fe40e36-bbc7-4aef-bf20-290bd827ed9a

  64. G Money says:

    Armchair GM,

    Ryan,

    I did not go back and do this for Fayne, but as part of my fancystats look at him, I did pull Hamonic’s numbers just vs WC teams, and just vs “tough” WC teams, and also h2h vs top players in both conferences. https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/hamonic-the-real-goods-the-numbers-say-yes/

    Combine that with the scouting reports I’ve read (which are glowing), and I’d say that Hamonic is bona fide and an instant upgrade on our top pairing. Probably enough to make this team a playoff team.

    Seriously.

    He’s good.

  65. blainer says:

    rickithebear:
    Last 4 years:
    #Tavares 121G #6 280P #5
    17gm 9G 9A 18p facing 217th comp (3rd) right there with Benn and Seguin for comp.

    Eberle one of 10 fwds in game with 102+G 241+P
    102G #16 tied with P.Kane
    241P #16 tied with Pavelski
    3G in 7gm facing the 7th hardest comp inleague 15-16
    Top 10 scoring and PvP

    Harmonic has below Average defending stats thru his career
    This year he is 10.93 #116 HSCA60 vs #26comp
    Schultz 12.02 #163 HSCA60 vs #16 comp

    When you look at our comp faced.
    it is obvious we have faced a large portion of the toughest comp teams for the year.

    Comp – HSCA60 Rank 194 D
    Klefbom #2 toughest comp in league 9.10 #48 HSCA60
    Fayne #8 comp – 8.05 #22 HSCA60
    Schultz #16 comp – 12.02 #163
    Reinhart #64 comp – 11.25 #127
    Gryba #82 comp – 13.81
    Davidson #107 comp – 10.01 #77 HSCA60
    Sekera #141 comp – 10.78 #107 HSCA60
    Nurse #158 comp – 12.27

    I would expect Tavares and Hamonic coming Back in anything involving Eberle and Schultz +

    Might want to look at actual results and defensive facts.

    Cause!
    Opinion; def: Point of view not based on facts or knowledge.

    Was waiting for that Ricki ! thanks.

    Wondering what G Money’s response to that is.

    You guys really do good work..

  66. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    Why do you hate Eberle so much, LT? 🙂

    The Oilers haven’t even seen the days of unicorns yet with 3 scoring lines given the injuries to Eberle and McDavid and people are considering breaking up the unicorn? I disagree with this thought process.

    Hamonic is a nice addition, no question, but the Oilers don’t have the right pieces for now.

    If Schultz can be healthy the rest of the season and produce points, he and a 1st at the draft could be the best Snow can do. He might be asking for Brodie but there’s no chance he gets that.

    Oilers should wait. The longer they wait the less leverage Snow has. We saw this with Pronger, and as others have said Hamonic is no CFP.

    In my opinion there is no good reason here to trade one of the 6 core forwards who make up the potential unicorn when McDavid returns.

  67. JDï™ says:

    Condors’ link: http://ahl-mb.cdnllnwnl.nlss.neulioncloud.com/nlds/ahl/mb/as/live/mb_hd_2000.m3u8

    Works with VLC only, game is at 3pm eastern.

  68. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I’m with you. See what shakes loose in the offseason when Chia is flush with cash and Nurse/Klefbom have another year under their belts. Oh…..and Chick-Run!!!

  69. blainer says:

    G Money:
    Armchair GM,

    Ryan,

    I did not go back and do this for Fayne, but as part of my fancystats look at him, I did pull Hamonic’s numbers just vs WC teams, and just vs “tough” WC teams, and also h2h vs top players in both conferences.https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/hamonic-the-real-goods-the-numbers-say-yes/

    Combine that with the scouting reports I’ve read (which are glowing), and I’d say that Hamonic is bona fide and an instant upgrade on our top pairing.Probably enough to make this team a playoff team.

    Seriously.

    He’s good.

    I wonder How Shultz does against the East ?

    My Gord G Money you are doing an awful lot of the work for the boys on Kingsway..

  70. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Brodie is too good for Calgary to trade him.
    Gio is too old and too expensive for Snow to want him.
    Tanev is a lateral trade for the Canucks so why make it.
    Edler is probably too old for the Isles.
    Myers was just traded for and Winnipeg needs offensive D-men after Buff and Enstrom leave.
    Trouba is too young with too much upside for Winnipeg to trade.
    Spurgeon is good but seems underrated by people due to his size.

    I can’t see Snow getting back an equivalent D man.

    I wouldn’t give up Klefbom or Nurse for Hamonic. Giving up too much upside.

    I don’t see any reason here to do anything rash. We waited ten years. Wait six more months for the right move. I doubt Snow gets a great offer he pounces on. I could be wrong. But I like Chia’s chances the longer he waits.

  71. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Lowetide,

    Why do you hate Eberle so much, LT?

    The Oilers haven’t even seen the days of unicorns yet with 3 scoring lines given the injuries to Eberle and McDavid and people are considering breaking up the unicorn? I disagree with this thought process.

    Hamonic is a nice addition, no question, but the Oilers don’t have the right pieces for now.

    If Schultz can be healthy the rest of the season and produce points, he and a 1st at the draft could be the best Snow can do. He might be asking for Brodie but there’s no chance he gets that.

    Oilers should wait. The longer they wait the less leverage Snow has. We saw this with Pronger, and as others have said Hamonic is no CFP.

    In my opinion there is no good reason here to trade one of the 6 core forwards who make up the potential unicorn when McDavid returns.

    This. Let’s wait.. One thing us fans of the oilers have down pat is patience..

  72. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I’m with you. See what shakes loose in the offseason when Chia is flush with cash and Nurse/Klefbom have another year under their belts. Oh…..and Chick-Run!!!

    Are you going to the game again today ?

  73. TheOrangeDesk says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Interesting stats. Not sure how much I trust a stat where Ference isn’t the worst on the team though… Have you considered dividing the puckgains number by opportunites to do so? Might take some situational bias out….

  74. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Are you going to the game again today ?

    Nope. Kids got swimming lessons. Will miss most of game online too.

  75. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Lowetide,

    Why do you hate Eberle so much, LT? :)

    The Oilers haven’t even seen the days of unicorns yet with 3 scoring lines given the injuries to Eberle and McDavid and people are considering breaking up the unicorn? I disagree with this thought process.

    Hamonic is a nice addition, no question, but the Oilers don’t have the right pieces for now.

    If Schultz can be healthy the rest of the season and produce points, he and a 1st at the draft could be the best Snow can do. He might be asking for Brodie but there’s no chance he gets that.

    Oilers should wait. The longer they wait the less leverage Snow has. We saw this with Pronger, and as others have said Hamonic is no CFP.

    In my opinion there is no good reason here to trade one of the 6 core forwards who make up the potential unicorn when McDavid returns.

    I agree, Eberle wouldn’t be dealt at this point there’s more to see. Timing on the NYI deal isn’t right for EDM imo, but Peter Chiarelli may see things differently.

  76. fifthcartel says:

    It was interesting to hear Friedman mention the possibility of a 3-team trade on Saturday Headlines because that’s the thirdish person to say that in the last little while (Stauffer, Spector, Friedman/Cox).

    I’m convinced he’s moved in season, and I think Edmonton has a shot if they’re involving a third team. Waiting till the offseason to move a guy who wants to go back home for personal reasons seems kind of bad.

    I just keep coming back to the teams mentioned and the ask, and I saw you mentioned Minnesota, LT, but I read they’re looking for a forward and there defense is already pretty expensive, so I think this is such a prime opportunity for Chiarelli.

    They’re not getting a Brodie/Hamilton/Trouba and Cheveldayoff so rarely does many player for player trades, so I think that leaves Chiarelli an opportunity to get creative.

  77. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Nope. Kids got swimming lessons. Will miss most of game online too.

    Ya I suspect they are playing scrivens today.. Just as well ya missed that one.

  78. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Ya I suspect they are playing scrivens today.. Just as well ya missed that one.

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors 32m32 minutes ago
    DEFENSE:
    Nikitin – Simpson
    Hunt – Gernat
    LaLeggia – Musil

    IN NET: The Man they call LB – @LBrossoit (7-2-1 / 1.97 / .941)

  79. Pouzar says:

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors 33m33 minutes ago
    FORWARDS:
    Hamilton – Khaira – Chase
    Loiseau – Miller – Slepyshev
    Christoffer – Platzer – Kessy
    Roy – Currie – Pageau

  80. mit167 says:

    Lol… This won’t be popular, but maybe patience is the answer yet again. Why don’t we bring Schultz back and feed him minutes with Drai and Hall. Pump him and Dump him with Yak or a pick, all the while hopefully depreciating the value on a more and more upset Harmonic.

    (Didn’t check to see if this was already suggested.)

  81. Pouzar says:

    Holy Crap…TiCats down to 4th QB…Massoli down

  82. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors32m32 minutes ago
    DEFENSE:
    Nikitin – Simpson
    Hunt – Gernat
    LaLeggia – Musil

    IN NET: The Man they call LB – @LBrossoit (7-2-1 / 1.97 / .941)

    Ha!! Talk about sticking with the hot hand..

    Went to the ice caps game Friday night.

    Jeebus that McCarron kid .. what a prospect the habs have coming there. Massive center and dominated possession the whole time he was on the ice.. and 6″6 231 pounds and a point per game at the age of 20.

    Sounds a lot like Yak2 but better and healthy.

  83. Pouzar says:

    blainer: and 6″6 231 pounds.

    Jezzuz

  84. Chris says:

    I think we all have to distinguish between what Snow would like to do and what he will ultimately be forced to accept. Snow is negotiating from a position of weakness. Good soldier as Harmonic may be he has indicated that he wants out. The request came a while ago, nothing happened and his agent probably leaked the request to kick start the process.

    We have to assume that there is some serious and valid reason at least to him for Harmonic to have made the request and that it’s important to him. He had signed a long term deal shortly beforehand so something notable must have happened to have changed his mind.

    Now undoubtedly Harmonic will continue to play but if it’s important enough to him to request the trade then over time one would assume it will preoccupy and upset him if no action is taken. His play will likely suffer at some point. Constant rumors could also potentially present a distraction to the team.

    Now that the trade request is public, all the general managers in the general vicinity of western Canada know that at some point in the short to medium term Snow has to make a move. There is a limited market due to the nature of the player’s request. While Snow might want an equal player coming back the situation does not make it likely he’s going to receive 100 cents on the dollar.

    My personal suspicion is that Charielli and other GMs will be offering players like Yakupov, Schultz and Fayne in return for Harmonic. Potentially useful players but not essential to their teams along with prospects or picks. Eventually Snow is simply going to have to accept the least bad deal he is presented with.

  85. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I actually just wrote about the NYI and they could use Eberle based on a quick look-see
    http://oilersnation.com/2015/11/22/bubbling-under-4fe40e36-bbc7-4aef-bf20-290bd827ed9a

    Which is interesting given all the reports we’re hearing from Friedman that Snow is focused almost entirely on a blueliner in return. Seems to me he wants to take this hiccup and bring something in that ensures the team doesn’t miss a step, or even improves.

    Eberle for Hamonic looks reasonable on paper, but seems at odds with two things: Snow’s demands and the Oilers’ lack of RW depth. When Eberle was out they ran everyone (and it seemed like everyone) on that side to make up the difference.

    Once McDavid gets back I suppose you can move Draisaitl to RW again, but he’s looking too valuable at C to risk that now.

    I agree that waiting looks good right now, wait until Snow dials it down into Chiarelli’s comfort zone.

    If it comes at the draft anything could happen. If the Oilers had the 3rd overall pick they could perhaps grab Hamonic and Strome or some other prospect further along. Or you make a move at the deadline when more assets are in play and the buyers and sellers are all more motivated.

  86. G Money says:

    blainer,

    My stats show much the same thing – Hamonic is just OK when it comes to defending against the high danger plays.

    But Ricki’s use of just a single stat to make a definitive and somewhat smug declaration about the goodness or badness of a defenseman isn’t really justified. It’s a very one-dimensional look.

    In Hamonic’s case, you have to look at the qualify of players he faces. Hamonic is on the ice as often as Capuano can get him against Ovechkin, Crosby, Giroux, etc. So you’re going to give up chances against those guys no matter what.

    It’s something like the CHI game. Using just danger based stats, Reinhart-Davidson had a WAY better game than Fayne and Klefbom. But not really. Because R/D faced a lot of 3rd and 4th line guys in modest ice time, while F/K faced the Kane line the whole night.

    Ricki’s opinions on D are interesting, but almost always one-dimensional and as a result often misguided IMO.

  87. RexLibris says:

    blainer: and 6″6 231 pounds and a point per game at the age of 20.

    Did you say he played center? Or free safety LB?

  88. lynn says:

    Pouzar:
    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors33m33 minutes ago
    FORWARDS:
    Hamilton – Khaira – Chase
    Loiseau – Miller – Slepyshev
    Christoffer – Platzer – Kessy
    Roy – Currie – Pageau

    Moroz played on Friday, and he scored his second goal of the season. Is he injured or a healthy scratch?

  89. G Money says:

    blainer: I wonder How Shultz does against the East ?
    My Gord G Money you are doing an awful lot of the work for the boys on Kingsway..

    Well somebody’s gotta do it!

  90. Pouzar says:

    lynn: Moroz played on Friday, and he scored his second goal of the season. Is he injured or a healthy scratch?

    Reports are he was banged up after Friday Night game.

  91. Caramel Obvious says:

    blainer: This is very interesting work.

    Reinhart is not looking good in any of our fancy stats. Kinda funny as to me he really hasn’t looked to bad by eye.

    Whose eye? Reinhart looks terrible to my eye.

  92. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    Holy Crap…TiCats down to 4th QB…Massoli down

    I can’t lose in that game. TiCats deserve some good fortune after all those rough years and the Redblacks are a pretty easy team to cheer for, in spite of Burris (Stamps miasma takes a LONG time to wear off).

    My ideal is an Edmonton/Ottawa GC. That’d bring back some old memories.

    Either way, whoever wins the WF today…well, it’s going to awfully hard to look favourably on any EC team.

  93. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris,

    Massoli back and looking on point with them throws.

  94. blainer says:

    G Money:
    blainer,

    My stats show much the same thing – Hamonic is just OK when it comes to defending against the high danger plays.

    But Ricki’s use of just a single stat to make a definitive and somewhat smug declaration about the goodness or badness of a defenseman isn’t really justified.It’s a very one-dimensional look.

    In Hamonic’s case, you have to look at the qualify of players he faces.Hamonic is on the ice as often as Capuano can get him against Ovechkin, Crosby, Giroux, etc.So you’re going to give up chances against those guys no matter what.

    It’s something like the CHI game.Using just danger based stats, Reinhart-Davidson had a WAY better game than Fayne and Klefbom.But not really.Because R/D faced a lot of 3rd and 4th line guys in modest ice time, while F/K faced the Kane line the whole night.

    Ricki’s opinions on D are interesting, but almost always one-dimensional and so often misguided IMO.

    No doubt. You’re numbers are more rounded and in all situations. Good to see both. As I’ve said all Kingsway has to do is look at your work.. Man you are making their jobs easier.. although you don’t have to be held accountable..

    keep er goin ..

  95. Pouzar says:

    I can get free Tickets to Grey Cup…if TiCats win I may go as the bro-inlaw is from Hamilton and a huge fan.

  96. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I just want to say that Yak isn’t a spare part. He may seem like it now, but it’s because we have to witness him develop at the NHL level and unlearn some old, bad habits. He has the tools to go Tarasenko on us in two years. Will he? Who knows.

    But we have invested this much time in him. Let’s see it through. I think he is a great trigger man for McDavid and how amazing is it that this team in 2016 could be rolling out Pouliot-McDavid-Yak as its THIRD line against the soft parade for home games?

    That’s frankly ridiculous to think about and I want to see it happen. Don’t you?

    Hall-Drai-Purcell
    Hendricks-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov

    Let terror rain down on opposing D men. It’s time for blood and revenge for years of humiliation. Don’t break this core up now.

  97. blainer says:

    Caramel Obvious: Whose eye?Reinhart looks terrible to my eye.

    LOL.. maybe I should cut back on the drinking then..

  98. blainer says:

    RexLibris: Did you say he played center? Or free safety LB?

    If my memory is correct McCarron checked McDavid and kept him from hardly scoring against Oshawa during the OHL playoffs. Man what a beast.

    Very similar player to drai and 4 inches bigger and 20lbs heavier. Yak2 is our version.

  99. JDï™ says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Let terror rain down on opposing D men. It’s time for blood and revenge for years of humiliation. Don’t break this core up now.

    Don’t stand near your door for the next 30 minutes…

  100. Woogie63 says:

    Can we see 5 games with;

    Klefbom-Davidson
    Nurse-Sekera
    Reinhart-Shultz

    top 4 playing about 22 minutes

  101. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    I just want to say that Yak isn’t a spare part. He may seem like it now, but it’s because we have to witness him develop at the NHL level and unlearn some old, bad habits. He has the tools to go Tarasenko on us in two years. Will he? Who knows.

    But we have invested this much time in him. Let’s see it through. I think he is a great trigger man for McDavid and how amazing is it that this team in 2016 could be rolling out Pouliot-McDavid-Yak as its THIRD line against the soft parade for home games?

    That’s frankly ridiculous to think about and I want to see it happen. Don’t you?

    Hall-Drai-Purcell
    Hendricks-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov

    Let terror rain down on opposing D men. It’stime for blood and revenge for years of humiliation. Don’t break this core up now.

    Yup.. We have not seen this team healthy yet. I for one love the unicorns idea.

    Finally a time where I am willing to wait on Yak..

    My posts per/60 are getting embarrassing.. time for break.

  102. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woogie63:
    Can we see 5 games with;

    Klefbom-Davidson
    Nurse-Sekera
    Reinhart-Shultz

    top 4 playing about 22 minutes

    You forgot Fayne!
    But that’s OK
    The beauty of the intertubes is tha you can always correct your mistakes

  103. Halfwise says:

    Does Jultz + Gryba for Hamonic and a prospect (ideally a young RD) work? Gives the Isles a couple of different looks on RD, keeps the contract count square, offers some insurance against Jultz’ injury and doesn’t upset the $ balance much.

  104. bringbackslats says:

    flyfish1168,

    How do you figure Ebs alone would be an overpayment. He’s an outstanding player no doubt and I don’t want to see him leave … But TM is a top flight D likely ranking top 20 overall at that position league wide. Now one could argue that Eberle might be close to a top 20 winger but the fact remains that D of that high calibre are harder to come by. Isles would want a D back but a straight up trade one for one would favour the Oilers too much

  105. Johnny skid says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    I just want to say that Yak isn’t a spare part. He may seem like it now, but it’s because we have to witness him develop at the NHL level and unlearn some old, bad habits. He has the tools to go Tarasenko on us in two years. Will he? Who knows.

    But we have invested this much time in him. Let’s see it through. I think he is a great trigger man for McDavid and how amazing is it that this team in 2016 could be rolling out Pouliot-McDavid-Yak as its THIRD line against the soft parade for home games?

    That’s frankly ridiculous to think about and I want to see it happen. Don’t you?

    Hall-Drai-Purcell
    Hendricks-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov

    Let terror rain down on opposing D men. It’stime for blood and revenge for years of humiliation. Don’t break this core up now.


    it is quite shocking how many times yak is a throw in on a trade.it’s like you have to add a good player as sweetener just to rid our selves of him.

  106. Woogie63 says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    I didn’t forget him

  107. pocession charge says:

    blainer: If my memory is correct McCarron checked McDavid and kept him from hardly scoring against Oshawa during the OHL playoffs. Man what a beast.

    Very similar player to drai and 4 inches bigger and 20lbs heavier. Yak2 is our version.

    It was Cole Cassels who shadowed McDavid in that series and held him to a mere seven points in five games.

    McCarron, as a player, is nothing like Draisaitl. He doesn’t have the passing and vision. Plays a pure power game.

  108. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Halfwise:
    Does Jultz + Gryba for Hamonic and a prospect (ideally a young RD) work? Gives the Isles a couple of different looks on RD, keeps the contract count square, offers some insurance against Jultz’ injury and doesn’t upset the $ balance much.

    Certainly works for the Oilers. Don’t think it works for the Isles unless Chia becomes GM for them, too. He does seem to love Gryba. But then MacT would become GM again and he loves future Norris too much so the trade would never happen. Haha.

  109. oliveoilers says:

    bringbackslats:
    flyfish1168,

    How do you figure Ebs alone would be an overpayment. He’s an outstanding player no doubt and I don’t want to see him leave … But TM is a top flight D likely ranking top 20 overall at that position league wide. Now one could argue that Eberle might be close to a top 20 winger but the fact remains that D of that high calibre are harder to come by. Isles would want a D back but a straight up trade one for one would favour the Oilers too much

    Uh, yeah, I think you may want to do a little research on hockeydb with particular attention to top 20 players from the last few years in both their respective positions.

    Eberle straight up would be an overpayment. He does what Moulson did with Tavares, but without Tavares. Yikes.

  110. JDï™ says:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/3ttmac/steve_simmons_here_for_my_ama_morning_everyone/

    It’s over now, so you can’t ask him any more questions, but he did welcome people to email him if they want to discuss any other topics: steve.simmons@sunmedia.ca

    But I found this exchange rather jig-worthy:

    Steve, you’ve written about how good the Leafs moves of getting Clarkson/Bolland were and how corsi means literally nothing, but how do you explain how poor the Leafs were and that the last 8 winners of the Stanley Cup have been the teams with the highest corsi since 2010?

    Has your opinion changed at all?

    https://twitter.com/simmonssteve/status/395375707821309952 http://www.torontosun.com/2013/10/12/where-are-the-critics-of-nonis-off-season-moves-now

    Steve responds:

    I would like you to find where I wrote about the Clarkson signing in a positive sense. Never really did that. This is the problem with taking old news out of context. People grab on to opinions that just aren’t accurate or contextually correct. I’m just glad I provide bloggers with something to comment on – because how sad their lives would be if they actually had to come up with their own material.

    Maybe LT should email Steve, to thank him for all the material he’s provided!

  111. kooler says:

    Woogie63,

    Try the Shultz to wing experiment. Work on D knowing you have a D backup and PP guy.

  112. pocession charge says:

    rickithebear</

    I would expect Tavares and Hamonic coming Back in anything involving Eberle and Schultz +

    Ricki I think you accidentally wrote Tavares and Hamonic for Eberle and Schultz +. Cause! that trade is crazy from the Islanders’ perspective.

  113. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    blainer,

    My stats show much the same thing – Hamonic is just OK when it comes to defending against the high danger plays.

    In Hamonic’s case, you have to look at the qualify of players he faces.Hamonic is on the ice as often as Capuano can get him against Ovechkin, Crosby, Giroux, etc.So you’re going to give up chances against those guys no matter what.

    It’s something like the CHI game.Using just danger based stats, Reinhart-Davidson had a WAY better game than Fayne and Klefbom.But not really.Because R/D faced a lot of 3rd and 4th line guys in modest ice time, while F/K faced the Kane line the whole night.

    In that regard, it sounds like DFA might suffer from the same curse as Staples’ numbers. i.e. small dataset that its swayed heavily by QOT, QOC, and zone starts.

    For years, we heard two opposing views on Ryan Jones. Staples who would laud him for his responsible 2 way play as reflected by his Staples numbers and everyone else especially Woodguy who derided him for flying the zone or cheating for offense.

    It’s always nice to see if stats pass the smell test and from what I’ve seen of your data for the Oilers, on the whole, it seems to fit with what we see.

    As far as using that same smell test for the Islanders, the only context that I have is Lubo who is an old favorite of mine though anything but a defensive Stalwart.

    The *old / obsolete / derided* Vollman instantly shows Hamonic as playing the most TOI/60 against the hardest competition with pretty much the worst zone starts on his team while still posting a positive Corsi (spits).

    The *shiny / new / innovative / cutting-edge* Danger fenwick shows Hamonic as a player who’s getting his lunch fed to him by a guy as old as me who’s a career offenseman.

    ?

  114. pocession charge says:

    bringbackslats:
    flyfish1168,

    How do you figure Ebs alone would be an overpayment. He’s an outstanding player no doubt and I don’t want to see him leave … But TM is a top flight D likely ranking top 20 overall at that position league wide. Now one could argue that Eberle might be close to a top 20 winger but the fact remains that D of that high calibre are harder to come by. Isles would want a D back but a straight up trade one for one would favour the Oilers too much

    What metric are you using to state that Hamonic is top 20 at his position league wide? That is hyperbole. Eberle actually has a track record of scoring that supports the claim of a first line RW. Eberle for Hamonic straight up is an overpayment.

  115. blainer says:

    pocession charge: It was Cole Cassels who shadowed McDavid in that series and held him to a mere seven points in five games.

    McCarron, as a player, is nothing like Draisaitl.He doesn’t have the passing and vision.Plays a pure power game.

    Actually have to disagree. Have seen them both live and at ice level. They have a very similar stride and are good at protecting the puck. They are both good at the power game IMO.

    Now Drai has jumped big time at the NHL level which is excellent but that McCarron kid is also an awesome prospect. And Huge.

    Wasn’t sure on the OHL playoffs coverage. thanks for that.

  116. G Money says:

    Ryan: In that regard, it sounds like DFA might suffer from the same curse as Staples’ numbers. i.e. small dataset that its swayed heavily by QOT, QOC, and zone starts.

    Shouldn’t be the case. HDSCA (war on ice’s metric) does suffer from that problem because it drops big chunks of data to focus on the smaller set. Which makes it a useful dataset only as long as you use it in full context (i.e. you have to look at medium and low danger chances too).

    DFA is built specifically to counteract that weakness. DFA drops no data, it only weights the data up or down based on distance and shot type. Otherwise, the underlying sample size is identical to regular Fenwick. So it’s a substantially larger sample size than HDSCA or Staples.

  117. Rondo says:

    Only way I see getting Harmonic is a 3- way trade. Oilers would trade a forward to some team

  118. G Money says:

    Ryan: The *old / obsolete / derided* Vollman instantly shows Hamonic as playing the most TOI/60 against the hardest competition with pretty much the worst zone starts on his team while still posting a positive Corsi (spits).
    The *shiny / new / innovative / cutting-edge* Danger fenwick shows Hamonic as a player who’s getting his lunch fed to him by a guy as old as me who’s a career offenseman.

    So the key thing here is that CF% shows the overall balance of play, but the DFA is focusing specifically on the defensive side of the equation. DFA is mediocre for Hamonic but (IMO) pretty solid given who he faces every night.

    DFF% actually ‘overconfirms’ the CF% – Hamonic’s DFF% goes up from CF% and from FF%, which means that not only are the Islanders moving the puck in the right direction when he’s on the ice, but the dangerous chances are even moreso in the Isles favour.

  119. pocession charge says:

    blainer: Actually have to disagree. Have seen them both live and at ice level. They have a very similar stride and are good at protecting the puck. They are both good at the power game IMO.

    Now Drai has jumped big time at the NHL level which is excellent but that McCarron kid is also an awesome prospect. And Huge.

    Wasn’t sure on the OHL playoffs coverage. thanks for that.

    McCarron is a good prospect, but nowhere near Draisaitl. He’s a bottom six forward on the Habs in two or three years from now if he’s lucky. Honestly, I don’t see any similarities between the two at this point because Draisaitl has so much more offensive ability and has dramatically improved his skating. McCarron is closer to Hunter Smith while Draisaitl is closer to Anze Kopitar or Joe Thornton.

  120. blainer says:

    1-0 moose on a perfectly converted two on one.

  121. Stelio Kontos says:

    FOOTBALL!!!

  122. Lowetide says:

    Slepyshev scores from Hamilton and Khaira 1-1

  123. LadiesloveSmid says:

    If NYI swallows their pride on letting Spurgeon go and ignores his size(which reportedly is still an issue for them), then Hamonic for Spurgeon would eliminate two options for Edmonton in the future. Hope that doesn’t go down.

    Let’s hope Schultz has some big games when he gets back

  124. blainer says:

    pocession charge: It was Cole Cassels who shadowed McDavid in that series and held him to a mere seven points in five games.

    McCarron, as a player, is nothing like Draisaitl.He doesn’t have the passing and vision.Plays a pure power game.

    Not saying McCarron is better than Drai. Drai is defiantly a better player now. I am saying they look similar in their skating and overall game. IMO.. I guess our opinions differ.

    The habs drafted McCarron at 25th overall in the first round. He is a point per game player at the same age as Drai and is playing fantasic..have you been watching his games lately? I have.

    He is no hunter Smith who may turn out to be good player as well. Although I consider Smith closer to Moroz.

  125. blainer says:

    Lowetide:
    Slepyshev scores from Hamilton and Khaira 1-1

    Man is just me or does Khaira look like a load. He might just be the next call up ..

  126. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ethan Bear humming at over a point per game. 24P in 22GP.

    Jones impressive too. 18P in 21GP.

    Ziyat Paigin 7P in 9GP with Sochi. Wow. 8P in 17GP as a 20YO D in the KHL.

    Despite 1 pick in the first 115, some picks are looking solid.

  127. Lowetide says:

    blainer: Man is just me or does Khaira look like a load. He might just be the next call up ..

    I think he could be getting close. They really like him.

  128. JDï™ says:

    blainer: Man is just me or does Khaira look like a load. He might just be the next call up ..

    An off-season with the Draisaitl leg program, and he’ll be difficult to send down next fall, if this keeps up.

    #wecanhavenicethings

  129. Klima's_Bucket says:

    blainer: The habs drafted McCarron at 25th overall in the first round. He is a point per game player at the same age as Drai and is playing fantasic..have you been watching his games lately? I have.

    I’ve been watching him too…McCarron looks like the next Joe Colborne to me!

  130. blainer says:

    JDï™: An off-season with the Draisaitl leg program, and he’ll be difficult to send down next fall, if this keeps up.

    #wecanhavenicethings

    Yup. he is not gonna be in the minors much longer. he defiantly gets the next call up.. has to be. he stands out as the best player on the ice IMO.

  131. lynn says:

    Khaira with 3 shots and 1 assist in the first period. Will never be a big scorer, but he is very good on the forecheck , good defensively and good on the PK. A good skater, too. He is versatile: centre or LWer.

    IMO, he’ll have games in Rogers Place on the Oilers’ bottom 6.

  132. RexLibris says:

    JDï™: I’m just glad I provide bloggers with something to comment on – because how sad their lives would be if they actually had to come up with their own material.

    Wow.

    Does anyone have the time to devote to showing Mr. Simmons how many bloggers have explored new and innovative topics in the world of the NHL over the last ten years?

    I think Simmons is confusing quantity (which journalists are contractually obligated to produce and is a hallmark of their trade) to quality. These two are mutually exclusive, and no one is suggesting that the MSM produce all of one and none of the other, but to suggest that the blogging world does not produce any new material of their own and merely occupies itself with refuting everything he says is not only the height of self-aggrandizing delusion but also patently false and willfully ignorant.

    Interesting that he doesn’t take any time to try and refute the argument, just tells the person commenting to go do some research and then shifts the conversation to the tired old underdog story.

    Why fate saw fit to relieve so many good people at TSN of their jobs last week and leave this man employed is baffling, to say the least.

    *edit – I realize Simmons doesn’t work for TSN*

  133. JDï™ says:

    RexLibris,

    I thought you especially would get a kick out of that!

  134. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    RexLibris,

    Fate sees fit to have bad things happen to good people all the time. If the world were fair it would be a very different place. I’d still rather look in the mirror and know I am a good person even if life deals me blow after blow.

  135. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Slepyshev scores from Hamilton and Khaira 1-1

    Was it a beauty?

    Also, the amount of “trade Nuge” articles/tweets/comments on the interwebs lately is too damn high!

  136. spoiler says:

    The Hamonic rumour seemed pretty specific about Western Canada. I don’t really want to speculate but there maybe a border issue or Medicare or something confounding the situation. Really what is the difference if he’s flying into the Peg from Chitown over Minneapolis? Or even Vancouver over TO for that matter?

  137. Pouzar says:

    lynn:
    Khaira with 3 shots and 1 assist in the first period. Will never be a big scorer, but he is very good on the forecheck , good defensively and good on the PK. A good skater, too. He is versatile: centre or LWer.

    IMO, he’ll have games in Rogers Place on the Oilers’ bottom 6.

    Yup. He’s jumped Yakimov and I love me some Yak2. Injuries suck.

  138. geowal says:

    Pouzar:
    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors33m33 minutes ago
    FORWARDS:
    Hamilton – Khaira – Chase
    Loiseau – Miller – Slepyshev
    Christoffer – Platzer – Kessy
    Roy – Currie – Pageau

    So chase on “top” line? Has he really climbed the depth chart that much since starting in ECHL, or is this the case of just some interesting line mixing?

  139. Pouzar says:

    Go figure. Hunt with the idiotic low % pinch leads to a 2 on 1.

    2-1 Moose.

  140. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    Go figure. Hunt with the idiotic low % pinch leads to a 2 on 1.

    2-1 Moose.

    Yup. both goals against LB had no chance on..

  141. Pouzar says:

    geowal: So chase on “top” line? Has he really climbed the depth chart that much since starting in ECHL, or is this the case of just some interesting line mixing?

    Chase looked good Friday night. Really underrated set of mitts.

  142. jasperavenue says:

    There does not appear to be a direct flight from Minneapolis St Paul to Winnipeg. Doubt there will be one from Denver.

  143. John Chambers says:

    jasperavenue,

    There are direct flights from both Denver and Minny to YWG.

    Minnesota is actually the geographically closest city, about 700 km’s.

  144. Pouzar says:

    jasperavenue:
    There does not appear to be a direct flight from Minneapolis St Paul to Winnipeg.Doubt there will be one from Denver.

    Delta Airlines says hi.

  145. John Chambers says:

    If you was Garth Snow would you rather have Matt Duchesne or Jordan Eberle?

    Probably Duchesne as he’s a centre but Eberle and Tavares could be deadly.

  146. Pouzar says:

    Slepy one-timer off the crossbar.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  147. frjohnk says:

    Brian Burke should be happy about this article from young Willis

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/the-incredibly-overrated-kris-russell/

  148. Dr. Taboggan says:

    frjohnk,

    Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

  149. sliderule says:

    blainer,
    You have to be kidding .
    Leon was skating circles around most nearly everybody last spring
    He didn’t go to power skating and become what he is now.He was already there ..
    Just don’t read about it watch hockey.

  150. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    frjohnk,

    Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

    The Internet has given rise to a whole class of bullies who hide behind keyboards or smartphones and say all kinds of hurtful things towards people.

    It has also given rise to a whole class of people who would rather communicate through quotes from others that sound good, links to videos or articles, and “lol” style text messages with even their best friends or lovers rather than pick up the phone and say, “Hello. How are you? I just called to say I care about you.”

    The emergence of these types of people has been so rapid and prevalent it hurts to think about. The people ripping Jon Willis there should be ashamed of themselves.

    I feel old. I feel like a grandpa telling people to get off my lawn. But it pains me to see the direction things are going. Convenience and progress are wonderful things, but I don’t think the human condition is progressing enough to keep up without these changes becoming vehicles for the degradation of society.

    Love thy neighbour just doesn’t seem to apply anymore and it makes me sad. The civility displayed here should be the rule, yet sadly it is the exception.

  151. frjohnk says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    frjohnk,

    Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

    Willis says “From an analytics perspective, however, the question isn’t so much whether or not Calgary can afford him. It’s if the Flames should even want to keep him in the fold.”

    And then gives a damning viewpoint by using analytics, which is pretty much 100% right.

    Of course there are people who don’t like analytics or don’t like their favorite teams players being put into a bad light and will voice their own viewpoint but with no real substance.

    Too bad cuz Willis is right. Defensively, Russell is a tire fire.

  152. Stelio Kontos says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    frjohnk,

    Reading the comments section on that article made me cringe. Poor Willis. It amazes me how offensive people still find analytics or any numbers based analysis of players.

    Analytics are BS. All I need to know is he has x goals, y assist, z +/-, a PIMs, b FO%, c Giveaways, d Shots. Don’t you dare talk to me about analytics.

  153. Dr. Taboggan says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Amen. I agree completely.

    Too often individuals use differences of opinion or interpretation as an opportunity to launch personal attacks. It is important to familiarize oneself with the concepts of epistemic humility and the principle of charity when engaging on the internet (and real life). Thanks goodness for lowetide.

  154. sliderule says:

    John Chambers,

    John
    Do you think Eberle for Hamonic is a fair trade.

    I say that because i haven’t seen Hamonic all that much and fancy stats made Fayne look good.

  155. John Chambers says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    True. But Willis is a big boy and I doubt the incoherent ranting of some toothless hicks bothers him.

    Whenever someone gets overly aggressive on the blogosphere I just think: “poor them – they are trying to derive pleasure from being confrontational and rude”

    So it goes

  156. Adam Wu says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:

    Love thy neighbour just doesn’t seem to apply anymore and it makes me sad. The civility displayed here should be the rule, yet sadly it is the exception.

    Some people have trouble conceptualizing the pseudononymous entity producing the printed words that appear on their computer screens as a neighbour.

    Also, in so-called meatspace, there are potential consequences for uncivil behaviour that may include a punch in the face, which tends to moderate at least some of those who struggle to moderate themselves.

    If you go back far enough, nearly all our various codes of civil conduct arose from the need of ancient humans to gather in groups and get stuff accomplished without things degenerating into gigantic brawls most of the time.

  157. John Chambers says:

    sliderule,

    No, straight up it’s not a fair trade. But I think it would make Edm a better possession team with one less finisher, but we do have a surplus of finishers, so even though Eberle should have superior trade value I think the deal would make Edm a more competitive team.

    Hamonic is a darned-near perfect fit. His contract is also long and cheap.

    If for example Eberle and Davidson for Hamonic and Strome went down I think we win the trade.

    Can’t ignore the value of the cap space savings.

  158. blainer says:

    sliderule:
    blainer,
    You have to be kidding .
    Leon was skating circles around most nearly everybody last spring
    He didn’t go to power skating and become what he is now.He was already there ..
    Just don’t read about it watch hockey.

    I’m not saying he’s anywhere near as good as drai. I am only saying he is looking a lot like Drai now Of course Drai was better last spring and STILL is.

    What I am saying his stride and puck protection are also similar.

    he has also really grown as player ..like Drai in the last couple of months.
    This is not a debate over Drai being better than McCarron.

    Wow I guess I never made that clear enough.

    What I am saying is the habs have one helluva prospect..

    Anyway.. moving on from that topic now..

  159. Lewis Grant says:

    the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues.

    Apologies if someone already answered this: What are their issues (especially in Strome’s case)? Isn’t Strome about to go supernova? He had 50 points last year.

  160. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lewis Grant:
    the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues.

    Apologies if someone already answered this: What are their issues (especially in Strome’s case)?Isn’t Strome about to go supernova?He had 50 points last year.

    Would Strome the asset not be better than Eberle the asset? At least from Edmonton’s perspective.

    NYI building around JT, EDM around McD. NYI could use a top line winger in his prime, Edmonton could use a future top line RW under team control longer and maybe cheaper.

  161. Stelio Kontos says:

    This is getting ridiculous. (The football game).

  162. AsiaOil says:

    The trade I’d be most comfortable with is Yak and Shultz for Hamonic and Clutterbuck (included for cap purposes). NYI upgrades RW and downgrades D – we upgrade D and downgrade RW. Salaries basically balance and all are under control for the next year and a half at least. Not a big Clutterbuck fan but he only has one year left after this season and would add some nasty to the bottom six.

    Only other deal is a 3 way with MINN and NYI:

    To Minn: Yakopov

    To NYI: Spurgeon

    To EDM: Hamonic

    But Spurgeon and NYI may not be a match either since they didn’t sign him after being drafted by the Isles in 2008.

  163. GCW_69 says:

    Lewis Grant:
    the candidates among forwards (Strome, Okposo) have their own issues.

    Apologies if someone already answered this: What are their issues (especially in Strome’s case)?Isn’t Strome about to go supernova?He had 50 points last year.

    He’s off to a rough start this season and was sent down to the AHL. It’s a really strong forward group there in NY. That said, his possession numbers have been strong regardless of his scoring and a number of Islander bloggers seemed to disagree with the demotion.

    The forward choices for the Oilers coming back in an Eberle + trade are Okposo, Bailey and Strome. I don’t think Okposo is a good fit as a pending free agent, and while Bailey is the safer option, Strome has more upside and worst case probably slots in nicely as a third line centre.

  164. Professor Q says:

    blainer: Ha!! Talk about sticking with the hot hand..

    Went to the ice caps game Friday night.

    Jeebus that McCarron kid .. what a prospectthe habs have coming there. Massive center and dominated possession the whole time he was on the ice.. and 6″6 231 pounds and a point per game at the age of 20.

    Sounds a lot like Yak2 but better and healthy.

    If his brother had stuck with Edmonton’s plans, and that proposed trade for Hamonic and Strome worked out, Edmonton could potentially have been a hub for the “other” siblings of the NHL with Jones and Reinhart, too (etc.?).

  165. Lackadaisical says:

    Ryan: In that regard, it sounds like DFA might suffer from the same curse as Staples’ numbers. i.e. small dataset that its swayed heavily by QOT, QOC, and zone starts.

    For years, we heard two opposing views on Ryan Jones.Staples who would laud him for his responsible 2 way play as reflected by his Staples numbers and everyone else especially Woodguy who derided him for flying the zone or cheating for offense.

    It’s always nice to see if stats pass the smell test and from what I’ve seen of your data for the Oilers, on the whole, it seems to fit with what we see.

    As far as using that same smell test for the Islanders, the only context that I have is Lubo who is an old favorite of mine though anything but a defensive Stalwart.

    The *old / obsolete / derided* Vollman instantly shows Hamonic as playing the most TOI/60 against the hardest competition with pretty much the worst zone starts on his team while still posting a positive Corsi (spits).

    The *shiny / new / innovative / cutting-edge* Danger fenwick shows Hamonic as a player who’s getting his lunch fed to him by a guy as old as me who’s a career offenseman.

    ?

    I appreciate what you’re saying, but I’d offer counterpoint that has already probably been discussed here (so I hope I’m not piling on).
    Contextualised dfa/60 seems like it’s a legitimate stat moving forward- G money is on to something, I recommend reading his work!

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