G23 2015-16: OILERS AT RED WINGS

The Edmonton Oilers impact forwards are either healing, in the hospital, in the doghouse, the outhouse or on fire. It would be nice to have more than two (Hall, Draisaitl) in the ‘fire’ quadrant but it’s a long season.

FIRE AND RAIN, SEASON OVER SEASON

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 3-6-1
  • Oilers after 22 in 2014-15: 6-14-2, 14 points (-31 GD)
  • Oilers after 22 in 2015-16: 7-14-1, 15 points (-12 GD)

Game 23 for Edmonton last season was an OT loss to Nashville, Filip Forsberg scored in the extra frame and Viktor Fasth was very good.

PLEASE SIR, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER?

It could have been worse, far worse, and that four weeks could be a bit of wishful thinking. Either way, he didn’t blow his knee up so we’ll count our blessings and consider the candles lit a worthwhile enterprise. Yakupov is a fine young man, hope he’s here for the good times and maybe he’ll be back the same night as Connor McDavid. In that shining city on a hill Mr. Katz dreams of, I think Nail plays RW and serves the Glenn Anderson role. So far? Willy Lindstrom.

PROJECTED LINES

  • Hall—Draisaitl—Eberle: The offense is all on the Santa Maria.
  • Korpikoski—Nugent-Hopkins—Purcell: I should like this line, Nuge and Purcell are good possession players and Korpikoski has had good seasons. I don’t trust the Finn here. The Pinta may take on water.
  • Pouliot—Letestu—Hendricks: I bet you $12 Craig MacTavish suggested this line. If one of them had a broken hand and another had a shoulder issue, this would be 2004MacT for sure. This is the Nina, which could be the best of the three at sailing upwind.
  • Gazdic—Lander—Pakarinen: Todd McLellan’s fourth lines are the brig. You eat gruel and spend weeks without seeing the sun.

Don’t know about Khaira, suspect he’s more likely to play in Pittsburgh. The blue is likely to stay the same, although changing out Reinhart for Gryba is possible. Cam Talbot gets the start, let’s hope it’s a good one.

Well, let’s have a quick look at some basic numbers before we ask Rob about the season over season. Numbers below are complete season totals for 2014-15 and of course after 22 in 2015-16.

  • Shots For Per Game This Season (Last Season) in All Situations: 28.9 (28.4)
  • Shots Against Per Game This Season (Last Season) 5×5: 29.0 (30.0)
  • Goals For Per Game This Season (Last Season) In All Situations: 2.55 (2.35)
  • Goals Against Per Game This Season (Last Season) 5×5: 3.09 (3.37)

There’s improvement in lots of areas but the point totals will be identical after 23 games if the Oilers lose in regulation this evening. My question for Rob (among others and you’re welcome to chime in) will be: What would a ‘normal’ record look like with the shot differential being basically .500 and the goal differential being -.54 per game?

draisaitl orange capture1

LAST 10 GAMES

Interesting to see who has been scoring and stopping pucks over the last 10 contests, gives you a view to chill.

  1. Leon Draisaitl 10GP, 4-8-12
  2. Taylor Hall 10GP, 4-7-11
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 9GP, 3-4-7
  4. Teddy Purcell 10GP, 2-5-7
  5. Oscar Klefbom 10GP, 3-3-6
  6. Benoit Pouliot 9GP, 2-2-4
  7. Andrej Sekera 9GP, 1-3-4
  8. Jordan Eberle 9GP, 3-0-3
  9. Darnell Nurse 10GP, 0-3-3
  10. Brandon Davidson 8GP, 0-2-2
  11. Eric Gryba 8GP, 0-2-2
  12. Nail Yakupov 10GP, 0-2-2
  13. Matt Hendricks 7GP, 1-0-1
  14. Mark Letestu 10GP, 0-1-1
  15. Anders Nilsson 8GP, 2.52 .907
  16. Cam Talbot 2GP, 4.10 .857

The Oilers also have a long list of players who have been in the lineup and have no crooked boxcar numbers:

  • Anton Pakarinen 10; Anton Lander 9; Mark Fayne 8; Griffin Reinhart 8; Luke Gazdic 5; Andrew Miller 5; Lauri Korpikoski 4; Connor McDavid 1; Anton Slepyshev 1.

The scoring depth on this team is very poor and I know part of it is injury. That said, Pavel freaking Datsyuk will center Detroit’s third line tonight. In the last 10 games, Anton Lander (0 points) and Mark Letestu (1 goal) have shared that role. It’s an issue. The Oilers are outplaying other teams at the top end, but giving it all back at the other. This is known as the ‘Doug Flynn starts at second base for the Expos’ malady and it is real.

I know people are obsessed with the defense and it could be improved and should be filled with more established players. That said, the six they’ll run tonight have NHL ability and as they fly more sorties they should get better. Who are the best candidates for the 3line tonight? Todd McLellan is robbing from the 2line to make it stronger. This team needs some help on the 3L and I think the guy they bring in should have the ability to score.

TRADING NUGE

Matty wrote an article last night about dealing Nuge and that article inspired two readers to ask about the return. One email suggested Shea Weber should be the target, and that’s a bad idea. Why? Well, Nuge is 22 and Weber is 30 and that’s a big damn deal. Consider how old they’ll be in five years, when McDavid is 23: Nuge 27, Weber 35. It’s not the right way to do this. Keep the Nuge, trade a winger. I know everyone loves McDavid and Leon, but they’re very young (hell Nuge is young!) and dealing Edmonton’s 22-year old C means Leon and McDavid face tougher opposition at home and on the road. Madness. Keep the Nuge, find another option.

MCDAVID BACK EARLY

Anyone else have their spidey senses tingle on the timing of this good news story? Oilers awful in Raleigh and Nail gets hurt by a runaway linesman, and bam! GREAT NEWS ON MCDAVID!! Anyone see this as a wily old GM issue framing like a bandit? Just me? I think PC has a big brain. Now, he needs to use it to procure a Pisani pdq.

hurdle gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re rocking the show with the wide wide world of sports today! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Dustin Nielson, TSN1260: LIIIVVVVE from the Grey Cup in Winnipeg, we’ll get a report on the nudity and the awards.
  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports: The CFL has a new logo, it’s a throwback to a simpler time. Like before color and artists. We’ll also talk about the Grey Cup game.
  • Yukon Jack, 100.3 The Bear: Yukon is a fabulous guy and a unique one, too. He’s hosting ‘Daddy Boot Camp’ with the Edmonton Public Library which is basically Dads getting the kids out of the house so Mom can relax and the kids/Dad can bond. Brilliant idea, we’ll see how things are going a few weeks into the camp.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN. We tackle the math puzzle above: Is our Oilers learning?
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. More signings by the Eddies, and the Tottenham Hotspur are kicking royal ass right now.
  • Dave Jamieson, TSN1260. The CFL awards and predictions for the final score on Sunday.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Kick out the jams, it’s Friday!

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439 Responses to "G23 2015-16: OILERS AT RED WINGS"

« Older Comments
  1. Melvis says:

    It’s been mentioned a number of times, but I’m into redundancy. Eberle is at 70-80% tops.

    And the stripes as a whole need a serious whipping. They’re not men. They’re acting out like pissy little boys keeping personal score within some imaginary sandbox.

  2. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    CrazyCoach,

    I would like to see the fancy stats for tonight but I am seeing Eberle bad lately. He’s not TCAF bad but given his prior track record I’m not impressed so far this season (he could be injured and that is legitimate but if thats the excuse I have to wonder what the fuck the coaching staff was thinking AGAIN for rushing a player back). Hall has taken defensive zone responsibility seriously this year and I see a whole lot of half days from Ebs in this area. Hopefully he improves soon the team could use it.

    Talbot .875

    Absolutely nothing will change until that number improves

  3. verdad2.0 says:

    It is an outrage to send down Reinhart.
    An outrage.
    Ference should have been bought out, but Chiarelli is an incompetent.
    I keep relentlessly saying this because this blog won’t admit.

    What is the point of keeping him on the team.
    Just break the rules and flush him.

    But back to Eberle and RNH, they should not be on the team tomorrow.
    Flush them tonight at all cost.

  4. dustrock says:

    I just don’t understand the 7 defencemen gambit. When has it ever worked? God what a transparent bit of lip service to the captain.

  5. Halfwise says:

    dustrock:
    I just don’t understand the 7 defencemen gambit.When has it ever worked?God what a transparent bit of lip service to the captain.

    They were showcasing him.*

    *To the American Association of Retired People.

  6. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    I just don’t understand the 7 defencemen gambit.When has it ever worked?God what a transparent bit of lip service to the captain.

    Except he isn’t, and he wasn’t wearing an A either.

  7. CrazyCoach says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAint’sSo!: would like to see the fancy stats for tonight but I am seeing Eberle bad lately. He’s not TCAF bad but given his prior track record I’m not impressed so far this season (he could be injured and that is legitimate but if thats the excuse I have to wonder what the fuck the coaching staff was thinking AGAIN for rushing a player back

    It could be that he’s not 100% mentally ready. The guidelines are usually, 100% strength, 100% range of movement, and 100% mentally ready to go as well. It’s easy to test strength and flexibility with field tests, but the mental readiness is often a judgement call at best. And sadly, with many player taking too many pain meds, there could be a ton of reasons for the funk he seems to be in.

    Just hope he breaks out soon.

  8. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide: Except he isn’t, and he wasn’t wearing an A either.

    I may be reaching a bit here, but is that a bit of a tell of what they think of him?

  9. G Money says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAint’sSo!,

    You can see the individual fancystats in the head to head charts at the end of my shot data update.

    The Corsi’s were complimentary to Ebs (58%), but the Dangerous Fenwicks were not (44%).

    I’ll leave you to decide which one better reflected his game – I didn’t see all of it, LOL!

  10. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    G Money,

    406.0 DFA60 for Fayne/Ference is amazing.

  11. Frank the dog says:

    Last season they lost their road game to Detroit 5-2. GD-3.
    Tonight they lost their road game in OT, 4-3 GD -1.
    That’s a better result than last year. Keep TFCAF’s -2 off the ice and could this have been a 3-2 win by the Oil, GD +1.
    This without Yak, let alone CMD.
    Tonights team was better than last years team in the same situation. People need to put their pants back on. Putting in TFCAF could have been anything, guess away. Except incompetence. Not TMac or Chia.

  12. G Money says:

    Undisclosed_Personal&F#95;Reasons:
    G Money,

    406.0 DFA60 for Fayne/Ference is amazing.

    Ference/Gryba? Yup. Very small TOI, but still an amazing number. Usually for pairs with less than a minute, you get a zero. Not those two!

    Reminder as to what DFA/60 means – it’s what that pair is giving up if all shots were normalized to be ~28 ft wrist shots from the middle slot.

    406 28 ft wrist shots per hour!!!!!!

  13. G Money says:

    Frank the dog,

    I think most folks are OK with the result, and OK with the last half of the game.

    It’s the first ~35 minutes that cause the old pants-up-ass-crack feeling.

  14. G Money says:

    jp,

    Small blessings, hey! The diff from CF% to FF% means the team did a nice job blocking shots.

  15. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    G Money,

    Thanks for this! (And my question was a nod to the excellent work you have been doing post-game this season, please keep it up!)

    The Fenwick numbers confirm what I have seen lately. Overall its a saw off but the bad is very very bad. I agree with CrazyCoach, Ebs seems to be in a funk (goals notwithstanding because I think we can agree he doesn’t look right) but I’m not quite sure why, hopefully he can shake it soon and we see the confident (rather than incredibly hesitant) player we know and love.

    I’m convinced Nuge isn’t 100%, he looked better tonight (the face-off number were encouraging after a stream of craptacular results) compared to the last few games, so hopefully he is gearing up.

    Leon looked a bit better tonight by my eye.

    Not sure what is going on with Nurse right now but he seem to have a little bit of Hall syndrome (aka throw the team on your back and do everything). He has been burned a couple times in the last few games with a jump here or by chasing a puck carrier there. If he simplifies things will be a lot easier for him. Just has to relax a little bit.

    Klef-Fayne has been a bit of a hurricane the last two games. A couple of major gaffes by Fayne on pinches but Klef has been walked at least twice.

    Good jump by the lower 6 tonight. Pakarinian showing some greasy goodness on the goals (more please!)

    I’m of split personality on the goaltending tonight. Talbot stood tall in the 1st and 2nd but two of the goals (including the winner) left me wanting. You cannot survive a .875 save percentage. This just isn’t good enough but I have a hard time blaming goaltending for anything.

    The non-calls on Hall are disgusting. Throw in the cheap shot on Crosby tonight and its not hard to make the case that the NHL values “grittttttt” a helluva lot more than the value skill. Fuck these guys, I hope Hall goes supernova on the next ass-clown that takes a shot against him. The team has shown over a decade they won’t stick up for their skilled guys and honestly if Hall has to go snap-show (aka Karma-is-a-bitch-Clutterbuck) then so be it.

    Only the Oilers could have a top five scorer getting his lip busted open one shift and having to wear a Red Wings backpack the next without an arm being raised.

    Fuck the Officiating tonight (and I hate saying that).

  16. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:
  17. Lowetide says:

    Slepyshev with a goal and an assist in a wild one tonight.

  18. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    In all this hubbub about the new CFL logo I hadn’t realized the Eagles had unveiled their new mascot.

    http://imgur.com/gallery/15vSrUN

    Now I know why people cheer for that team.

  19. Gerta Rauss says:

    RexLibris:

    In all this hubbub about the new CFL logo I hadn’t realized the Eagles had unveiled their new mascot.

    http://imgur.com/gallery/15vSrUN

    Now I know why people cheer for that team.

    Yes, yes, bird.

    Uh huh

  20. Gerta Rauss says:

    TMac post game audio

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=52923

    The recipe is a little bit similar to what we saw earlier in the year, we get down and then we really decide we’re going to play

  21. RexLibris says:

    Gerta Rauss: Yes, yes, bird.

    Uh huh

    Beautiful plumage.

  22. OilLeak says:

    RexLibris: http://imgur.com/gallery/15vSrUN

    I wish the thumbs up button was still around

  23. SwedishPoster says:

    This team has some serious mental issues. It’s like they have to spot the other team a two-three goal lead before they start playing. We can talk score effects til we go blue in the face but the difference in jump and give a damn was obvious after the second GA.

    Ebs is looking awful so far, his lost puck battles/60 is at Rob Schremp levels but his offensive skillset is also off, he’s killing a lot of good work done by Nuge. And the way he played on the OT goal was far from the hockey IQ savant he’s lauded as. Just stupid junior level thinking on that one. And I know he’s been injured but it seems like every time Ebs goes through rough patches where he looks disengaged and just generally off, and he’s had these before, the excuse is always injury. If you’re on the ice you should be ready to play, 1-2 games to find your legs fine but he needs to be better by now.

    Klefbom is also off the last few, less active, not moving his feet and also weaker than usual in battles. Has to step it up.

    Finally Lander! And Pak! I guess Jujhar slides in on that line. Will be interesting.

  24. GCW_69 says:

    Going to see the Oilers Monday nIght. Sadly, I am no longer excited to see them play. 1 point better then last year isn’t good enough, damn it.

  25. G Money says:

    Bruce and LT might find this interesting.

    As you might know, a recent topic of discussion has been the testing and validation of new metrics such as Dangerous Fenwick. I’ve held off on doing some of the formal tests because it’s still in development.

    But I’ve been encouraged with the extent to which Dangerous Fenwick meets the eye test during games.

    So tonight I thought I’d test that formally. Of course, I didn’t watch most of the game, and I certainly didn’t formally rate the players. But I know someone who did!

    So I took Bruce’s game grades at CoH and tested them against CF% and DFF% for the game.

    I’ll do the full writeup as a NerdAlert, but perhaps it won’t surprise anyone that the correlation between CF% and Bruce’s scores was low to OK (r = 0.34) … but the correlation between Bruce’s player grades and DFF% was very high (r = 0.81).

    Like I say, interesting and encouraging.

  26. G Money says:

    Today’s project finished.

    A cool visualization for you: head to head CF% heatmap of the top 4 lines and top 3 defensive pairings for each team.

    http://i.imgur.com/sn65bYq.png

  27. böök¡je says:

    G Money:
    Bruce and LT might find this interesting.

    As you might know, a recent topic of discussion has been the testing and validation of new metrics such as Dangerous Fenwick.I’ve held off on doing some of the formal tests because it’s still in development.

    But I’ve been encouraged with the extent to which Dangerous Fenwick meets the eye test during games.

    So tonight I thought I’d test that formally.Of course, I didn’t watch most of the game, and I certainly didn’t formally rate the players.But I know someone who did!

    So I took Bruce’s game grades at CoH and tested them against CF% and DFF% for the game.

    I’ll do the full writeup as a NerdAlert, but perhaps it won’t surprise anyone that the correlation between CF% and Bruce’s scores was low to OK (r = 0.34) … but the correlation between Bruce’s player grades and DFF% was very high (r = 0.81).

    Like I say, interesting and encouraging.

    Exactly, I agree, stats are useless. Watch the game. Saw him good (or bad). Just ask Bruce.

  28. PhrankLee says:

    Lowetide: I’m sorry, but Sekera should be taking seat on the bench after Helm out-muscles him to puck.#EJLive
    le sigh

    Told you, Bruce.

    (jkoc, lt)

  29. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    RexLibris:
    Lowetide,

    In all this hubbub about the new CFL logo I hadn’t realized the Eagles had unveiled their new mascot.

    http://imgur.com/gallery/15vSrUN

    Now I know why people cheer for that team.

    I don’t know where you are surfing for these gems, Rex, but keep it up.

  30. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money:
    Bruce and LT might find this interesting.

    As you might know, a recent topic of discussion has been the testing and validation of new metrics such as Dangerous Fenwick.I’ve held off on doing some of the formal tests because it’s still in development.

    But I’ve been encouraged with the extent to which Dangerous Fenwick meets the eye test during games.

    So tonight I thought I’d test that formally.Of course, I didn’t watch most of the game, and I certainly didn’t formally rate the players.But I know someone who did!

    So I took Bruce’s game grades at CoH and tested them against CF% and DFF% for the game.

    I’ll do the full writeup as a NerdAlert, but perhaps it won’t surprise anyone that the correlation between CF% and Bruce’s scores was low to OK (r = 0.34) … but the correlation between Bruce’s player grades and DFF% was very high (r = 0.81).

    Like I say, interesting and encouraging.

    Baah! Bruce is full of it! 🙂

  31. sliderule says:

    Hits are a measurement of your battle level and wings out hit oil 23-17

    The most telling stat was 9 oilers had zero hits while wings only had 3 with Zero.

    The oilers have lots of passengers on this road trip.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Van Diest tweeted something that looked like it was meant to be a personal text.

    He deleted it, but I screen capped it.

    “Sure but it would have to be quick in case GM starts his avail a little earlier than noon. Call me on my cell phone.”

    Chia doing an avail?

    Schultz is expected back on the active roster today.

    If the Oilers were just sending down Reinhart I wouldn’t expect an avail. Maybe a trade?

    Alternate explanation is that the beat guys travelling with the Oilers were livid that Chia gave Spector the scoop on the McDavid injury timeline.

    Van Diest had tweeted that he has asked to talk to Chia every day on the trip with no luck and then a reporter (Spector, so “reporter” in loosest sense of the term) back in Edmonton gets the scoop.

    Here’s that tweet:

    Derek Van Diest ‏@SUNdvandiest 11h11 hours ago
    Still hoping to talk to #Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli this week, requesting him for the past five days. Maybe I should fly home and call him…

    Chia might be giving an avail to calm the traveling beat guys down a bit.

    I hope its a trade and I hope that its a good one.

  33. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    I can’t see how any trade at this time will be a good one. Oilers have zero leverage.

    Chia is smart but he isn’t a magician.

  34. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy,

    I can’t see how any trade at this time will be a good one. Oilers have zero leverage.

    Lots of teams need Dmen and Oilers have 8 on the roster.

    That’s not zero leverage.

    Opposite imo.

  35. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: Lots of teams need Dmen and Oilers have 8 on the roster.

    That’s not zero leverage.

    Opposite imo.

    Teams need good d-men. The Oilers can’t afford to give up their good d-men.

    I could very well be wrong but I don’t see a fit.

  36. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Teams need good d-men. The Oilers can’t afford to give up their good d-men.

    I could very well be wrong but I don’t see a fit.

    I could see a Gryba for a winger or 3C type trade.

    Not all trades are big.

    Most aren’t.

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Baah!Bruce is full of it!

    Now there’s a comment i can get on board with

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