FOLLOW THE MONEY

The NHL gave its member teams a number to work with for next season’s cap, and it is $74.5 million. That is mostly good news for the Oilers, who have several of their best young players under control at manageable to reasonable to outstanding contracts.

ROSTER AND CAP NUMBERS, 2016-17

  • Goal (0)
  • Defense (5): Andrej Sekera (5.5); Oscar Klefbom (4.1); Mark Fayne (3.625); Andrew Ference (3.25); Darnell Nurse (1.713);  TOTAL $15.332
  • Center (5): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6.0); Connor McDavid (3.775); Leon Draisaitl (3.4); Mark Letestu (1.8); Anton Lander (.988). TOTAL $15.963
  • Left Wing (4): Taylor Hall (6.0); Benoit Pouliot (4.0); Lauri Korpikoski (2.5); Jujhar Khaira (.894). TOTAL: $13.394
  • Right Wing (3): Jordan Eberle (6.0); Nail Yakupov (2.5); Matt Hendricks (1.85). TOTAL: $10.350
  • 17 PLAYERS, $55.039
  • CAP ROOM: $19.461

There are some things to note:

  • I have included full bore on bonus dollars for McDavid, Draisiatl and Nurse.
  • I have Reinhart in the minors, add $3.213 (that includes bonus) to place him on the roster.
  • RFAs like Justin Schultz, Anders Nilsson, Iiro Pakarinen, Luke Gazdic, Brandon Davidson will or not return.
  • UFAs like Teddy Purcell, Nikita Nikitin, Rob Klinkhammer, Eric Gryba and Cam Talbot are not included.
  • Jonathan Willis wrote a valuable piece on the subject here. The Andrew Ference buyout is $1.08 million.

The goaltending should come in at less than $5M, and I will add Reinhart and delete Ference in the roster below. I do think Brandon Davidson and Anders Nilsson get signed but at this point expect the RFA turnover to be massive. Lots of players not coming back for 2016-17.

PROJECTED ROSTER, WITH PLAYERS SIGNED BEFORE FREE AGENCY

  • Goal (estimated $5M): Anders Nilsson, Cam Talbot or similar
  • Defense (estimated $12.67M): Andrej Sekera 5.5; Oscar Klefbom 4.1; Griffin Reinhart $3.213; Darnell Nurse 1.713;Brandon Davidson 1.00.
  • Center (estimated $15.963): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6.0; Connor McDavid 3.775; Leon Draisaitl 3.4; Mark Letestu 1.8; Anton Lander .988.
  • Left Wing (estimated $13.394): Taylor Hall 6.0; Benoit Pouliot 4.0; Lauri Korpikoski 2.5; Jujhar Khaira .894.
  • Right Wing (estimated $10.350): Jordan Eberle 6.0; Nail Yakupov 2.5; Matt Hendricks 1.85.
  • Projected Total: $60.233
  • Cap room for Travis Hamonic, Frank Corrado, Milan Lucic and Kyle Okposo: $14.267M.

Cap numbers via NHLNumbers. I think we will see more change than implied and doubt we see the four men mentioned here arrive, but two defensemen and two forwards would seem to be the off-season list. Maybe more if they deal Eberle, seems to me Leon may end up being a RW next season, that would turn Okposo intro Frans Nielson.

OILERS DEFENSE, 2015-16

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

The top four men on this list are my favorite player-type, boasting a range of skills and useful in many areas. That is genuinely nice depth, the only negative being three of the four are very young. I think Edmonton keeps those four men (and Reinhart, because GMs do not give up on their investments easily and we need to see more of the GR story before he is flushed), but these are probably ‘last days as an Oiler’ for Justin Schultz, Eric Gryba, Mark Fayne and Andrew Ference. They will not be back in 2016-17.

Brandon Davidson showed his talent late at every level, perhaps that is the key element in finding gems later in the draft. He is going to get a push, Edmonton needs to know what he is by spring. He looks like a legit NHL defender, after that its a matter of flying thousands of sorties.

OILERS FORWARDS, 2015-16 SEASON

oil forwards over season

There is gold in these numbers. Draisaitl, Hall, McDavid, Purcell have good to great numbers across the board. Nuge and Eberle have some work to do and Pouliot faltered as he neared the IR, but these are quality NHL players. Who in that group do you trade in the summer? Probably Eberle, that Garrioch story was fascinating because the return was a young player, an inexpensive but bona fide player:

  • Bruce Garrioch: Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli is looking to make changes and RW Jordan Eberle is prominent on the market, but it sure sounds like it will be difficult for Edmonton to make a significant move before the deadline. Since Chiarelli likes his teams to play hard (see the Bruins for details), he’ll want to change the mix with the Oilers at some point. The only way for the Oilers to get the 25-year-old Eberle and his $6 million cap hit that runs until 2018-19 is if Edmonton is willing to take back a player or two to even up the money. Ideally, the Oilers want a good, young player in return with plenty of upside. Several teams believe that’s an off-season deal for Chiarelli. Source

What would that look like? I imagine the ideal is Mike Hoffman before he spiked, but that is a hard thing to pry away from NHL teams. Who might want Eberle? Lots of teams, any club with scoring problems for sure. Winnipeg is an interesting option. Anyway, if Eberle scores five more goals in December all this talk will go away, fairly certain.

PROBLEM SOLVING

Peter Chiarelli added several pieces in summer (McDavid, Sekera, Talbot, Letestu, Korpikoski, Reinhart, Gryba, Nilsson) and of course some have worked out so far while others are already showing themselves as unsatisfactory. We don’t have enough blacktop behind us to be sure on Talbot and Letestu, and I am comfortable with calling McDavid, Sekera and Nilsson (at least in a backup role) as not being issues for 2016-17. Fair? What then are the issues facing Peter Chiarelli in summer?

That will be the subject of this blog for the immediate future. In your mind, if you change out Jordan Eberle and Justin Schultz, while bringing in a young, rugged winger and a tougher defender, that is the end game between now and next September. I am convinced of it and that construction project could begin any day.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, lots to discuss and who knows maybe Alex Semin will get claimed at 10. Scheduled to appear, TSN 1260 at 10:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. PLAYOFFS? PLAYOFFS?
  • Scott Zerr, Cult of Hockey and TSN1260. How is Griffin Reinhart doing in Bakersfield? Brossoit’s injury.
  • Jamie Nye, CJME Regina. Chris Jones in Regina: There will be blood.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter and maybe a surprise guest or two.

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171 Responses to "FOLLOW THE MONEY"

  1. speeds says:

    LT, how likely do you think it is that the collective fanbase is actually underrating how good this team is now, at least partially because the team hasn’t really been together at the same time, to this point?

    That if they get 0.920+ goaltending, add a quality RD at the deadline, and get/stay healthy, not only is this a potential playoff team, but an uncomfortable match-up for others if they get there? Not 2 years from now, but this year?

  2. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    LT, how likely do you think it is that the collective fanbase is actually underrating how good this team is now, at least partially because the team hasn’t really been together at the same time, to this point?

    That if they get 0.920+ goaltending, add a quality RD at the deadline, and get/stay healthy, not only is this a potential playoff team, but an uncomfortable match-up for others if they get there? Not 2 years from now, but this year?

    I think it is possible but because we have not seen it, the idea of being that good is a distant bell. The important opinion is Chiarelli’s and if he is serious about the playoffs we should see a trade to help. Any time. Today

  3. frjohnk says:

    You have Klefbom at 1.2M. He will be getting 4.1M starting next year.

    •Cap room for Travis Hamonic, Frank Corrado, Milan Lucic and Kyle Okposo: $17.123M.

    Adding Hamonic without touching the core would be fantastic.

  4. Pouzar says:

    We need a puck mover. Nurse-Spurgeon would be a lovely pairing in the Keith-Seabrook role.
    Klefbom-Sekera with the toughs.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Actual Pacific Standings

    LAK +9gms
    SJS +2gms
    ARI 0

    VAN -1
    ANA -1
    EDM -4
    CGY -4

    This uses “games” which straight lines the results as points do not do that (i.e. VAN is showing in 3rd place due to point total but are 1 game under. 500 whereas ARI is even)

    Lots of blacktop but it’s just a matter of time before ANA gets over. 500 and takes the 3rd and probably then the 2nd slot.

    Even with this dcorps the Oilers will have a chance if:

    1) Goaltending continues to be good
    2) RNH-Eberle produce regularly
    3) McDavid comes back in mid-Jan or earlier

  6. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    We need a puck mover. Nurse-Spurgeon would be a lovely pairing in the Keith-Seabrook role.
    Klefbom-Sekera with the toughs.

    That’s a good idea.

  7. MOAR WINZ PLEEZ says:

    Love, love, love watching Eberle play and think it would be a crying shame if we didn’t get to see 14 dangle for the Oil in the playoffs. That alone would soothe the soul of any long-suffering Oiler fan…

    He is one of those players that seems to go into another gear in playoff games; saw some of that magic when he was in junior & @ WJC. Wasn’t one of his nick names “Mr. Clutch” at one point?

    14 & 13 (cogs) are also the only jerseys that I have and I can’t afford to buy another one right now…

  8. Stanley 2018 says:

    If Teddy P. keeps up the good work, he may find himself resigned here. Not at current salary of course, but if PC can sign him 2yrs, $2.5MM, I say go for it. Could do a lot worse.

  9. Woodguy says:

    I know it feels wrong but we want CGY to beat SJS tonight.

    I feel dirty.

  10. Woodguy says:

    @TheChrisWescott: RT @EdmontonOilers: #Oilers forward @jujhar94 has been credited with an assist on @hallsy04’s goal on Friday for his first @NHL point! http…

  11. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    I know it feels wrong but we want CGY to beat SJS tonight.

    I feel dirty.

    *slaps WG across the head*

    Smarten up!

  12. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Actual Pacific Standings

    LAK +9gms
    SJS +2gms
    ARI 0

    VAN -1
    ANA -1
    EDM -4
    CGY -4

    This uses “games” which straight lines the results as points do not do that (i.e. VAN is showing in 3rd place due to point total but are 1 game under. 500 whereas ARI is even)

    Lots of blacktop but it’s just a matter of time before ANA gets over. 500 and takes the 3rd and probably then the 2nd slot.

    Even with this dcorps the Oilers will have a chance if:

    1) Goaltending continues to be good
    2) RNH-Eberle produce regularly
    3) McDavid comes back in mid-Jan or earlier

    4) beat SJS

  13. flyfish1168 says:

    Ryan Ellis would be a good add. I believe he played with Hall prior in Windsor.

  14. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    @TheChrisWescott: RT @EdmontonOilers: #Oilers forward @jujhar94 has been credited with an assist on @hallsy04’s goal on Friday for his first @NHL point! http…

    YES!

  15. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    I know it feels wrong but we want CGY to beat SJS tonight.

    I feel dirty.

    ARGH

    It was so much less complicated when we were 15 pts out last year!

  16. 4th_Line_Plug says:

    When was the last time a Davidson type signed a long term deal, say 1.5 million over 4 years? Does it happened or do those guys just sign one year deals until they can cash in at UFA?

    How do you get rid of Fayne? Schultz+Fayne for Ryan Murphy+Trevor Carrick+2016 2nd

  17. Really? says:

    I believe this team is on the cusp of success. Since the beginning of the season we have all agreed that we would have to see the team at the 20 game mark to determine whether they are potential contenders. They need this time to adapt to the Toddlers way of doing things.

    With the McDavid injury, I believe the observation point will now be 20 games after he returns to the line up. If the Oilers have a healthy line up at that time then we will get a truer reading as to where this team stands. Given how quickly McDavid adapted to the NHL game at the start of the year, it should be an exciting time . I only hope they are still in a position to make a run up the standings.

  18. cc says:

    Brandon Davidson is an interesting fellow. I think based on what I’ve seen is a top 4 defenseman. It’s early but he has a lot of good things going for him.

    I looked at what other similar players signed as second year contracts (I know this is BD’s third) but it was easier looking for these comps (because it’s BD’s first year playing in the NHL) and here what I came up with.

    Player – Term – AAV – Year Signed
    David Savard – 2 Years 1.3 AAV (2015)
    Jason Demers – 2 Years 1.25 AAV (2012)
    Michael Stone – 3 Years 1.15 (AAV) (2014)
    Jake Muzzin – 2 Years 1 AAV (2014)
    Alec Martinez – 2 Years 1.1 AAV (2014)
    Macro Scandella – 2 Years 1.025 (2014)
    Jeff Petry – 2 Years 1.75 (2013)
    Mattias Ekholm – 2 Years – 1.038 (2015)
    Mark Borowiecki – 3 Years – 1.1 (2014)
    Patrick Wiercioch – 3 Years – 2 (2013)
    Justin Braun – 3 Years – 1.25 (2013)
    Grant Clitsome – 2 Years – 1.25 (2012)

    Signing Davidson to a 1 or 2 year contract is a dangerous proposition because if you look at the above list many of them were making roughly 4 million on their next contract. That is also the same time that McDavid’s contract will need to be signed. The Oiler’s should start looking at identifying cheap deals for Conor’s second contract.

    Does it make sense to look at signing Davidson to a 4 or 5 year contract? If the Oiler’s believe in him should they offer a 9 million dollar deal for 5 years? If they do would Davidson sign it?

    I think that’s a fair deal for both sides. The only players that I seen sign AAV under 2.5million for 4+ year teams on their second contract’s were; Ryan Ellis 5 Years 2.5 AAV signed in 2015 (Ellis was a former 1st round pick, played 144 games & had 44 points and Luca Sbisa 4 Years – 2.175 AAV signed in 2012 again a first round pick.

    Not sure what other people think.

  19. Pouzar says:

    5 weeks and counting since McDavid injury.

  20. Pouzar says:

    cc:
    Brandon Davidson is an interesting fellow.I think based on what I’ve seen is a top 4 defenseman.It’s early but he has a lot of good things going for him.

    I looked at what other similar players signed as second year contracts (I know this is BD’s third) but it was easier looking for these comps (because it’s BD’s first year playing in the NHL) and here what I came up with.

    Player – Term – AAV – Year Signed
    David Savard – 2 Years 1.3 AAV (2015)
    Jason Demers – 2 Years 1.25 AAV (2012)
    Michael Stone – 3 Years 1.15 (AAV) (2014)
    Jake Muzzin – 2 Years 1 AAV (2014)
    Alec Martinez – 2 Years 1.1 AAV (2014)
    Macro Scandella – 2 Years 1.025 (2014)
    Jeff Petry – 2 Years 1.75 (2013)
    Mattias Ekholm – 2 Years – 1.038 (2015)
    Mark Borowiecki – 3 Years – 1.1 (2014)
    Patrick Wiercioch – 3 Years – 2 (2013)
    Justin Braun – 3 Years – 1.25 (2013)
    Grant Clitsome – 2 Years – 1.25 (2012)

    Signing Davidson to a 1 or 2 year contract is a dangerous proposition because if you look at the above list many of them were making roughly 4 million on their next contract.That is also the same time that McDavid’s contract will need to be signed.The Oiler’s should start looking at identifying cheap deals for Conor’s second contract.

    Does it make sense to look at signing Davidson to a 4 or 5 year contract?If the Oiler’s believe in him should they offer a 9 million dollar deal for 5 years?If they do would Davidson sign it?

    I think that’s a fair deal for both sides.The only players that I seen sign AAV under 2.5million for 4+ year teams on their second contract’s were; Ryan Ellis 5 Years 2.5 AAV signed in 2015 (Ellis was a former 1st round pick, played 144 games & had 44 points and Luca Sbisa 4 Years – 2.175 AAV signed in 2012 again a first round pick.

    Not sure what other people think.

    Nice work!

  21. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LT, so disappointing you never responded to my Natalie Wood post the other day. Thought I nailed it!

    I will take the under on 74.5m please. The Canadian dollar is f*cked, as we have said many times. Sub 70-cents is coming.

  22. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: if he is serious about the playoffs we should see a trade to help. Any time. Today

    So sometime around, perhaps, noon? BecauseJamieson.

    🙂

  23. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    I know it feels wrong but we want CGY to beat SJS tonight.

    I feel dirty.

    With or without paying the proverbial (or literal, not trying to put words in your mouth) pound of flesh?

  24. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    LT, so disappointing you never responded to my Natalie Wood post the other day. Thought I nailed it!

    I will take the under on 74.5m please. The Canadian dollar is f*cked, as we have said many times. Sub 70-cents is coming.

    Lowest in 11 years or sumpin?

    How bout dat Crude eh?

    I lamented not taking FCX at the time I called it (up over 50%) but it’s gotten hammered since.

  25. dustrock says:

    Woodguy: I know it feels wrong but we want CGY to beat SJS tonight.I feel dirty.

    Sorry, can’t do it. I’ll start cheering like that in the last 20 games. Still too early and still the prospect of finishing below the Flames. Again.

  26. Lloyd B. says:

    I had that bike on the right. Bought the banana seat and high rise handle bars as after market additions. The bike on the right I am not familiar with. But Natalie, yowzza! Frickin Wagner.

  27. BrazilianOil says:

    Is our first round pick plus Fayne or Schultz enough to get Hamonic ? What’s the price in picks to offer sheet Spurgeron for 4.500.000?

  28. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    cc:

    Does it make sense to look at signing Davidson to a 4 or 5 year contract?If the Oiler’s believe in him should they offer a 9 million dollar deal for 5 years?If they do would Davidson sign it?

    Signing Davidson to a 4 or 5 year deal probably means paying him north of $2 million, not a lot of incentive for a player to lock up for that kind of term for bargain dollars.

    That said I think it’s worth it. It’s a risk, I mean he could very well regress in the next while and turn out to be more of the elite AHL type. Certainly possible.

    That said I’ve been a big fan for a while, and believed he would make the roster full time this year based on what I saw last year. Happy to see him defy even my expectations.

    The reality is that giving term to any Dman is risky. Look at what we’ve done on the free agent market in recent years. Fayne was supposed to be a lock for the second pairing based on age and numbers, an elite under-rated mid pack Dman. Sekera has been good not great, maybe a little expensive but I’m ok with it. Ference and Nikitin have been disastrous. Schultz… well that’s a unique situation.

    It’s really hard to evaluate Dmen on other teams, and it seems to be especially hard for the Oilers pro scouts. For that reason alone I say go long on Davidson, even if it’s a little expensive.

  29. frjohnk says:

    BrazilianOil: Is our first round pick plus Fayne or Schultz enough to get Hamonic ?

    Maybe the overall value is there but Snow will not trade Hamonic in season unless he is getting a comparable Dman coming back as the Islanders are in a win now mode. Which means Hamonic is probably not moving until after the season is done.

  30. Melman says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    LT, so disappointing you never responded to my Natalie Wood post the other day. Thought I nailed it!

    I will take the under on 74.5m please. The Canadian dollar is f*cked, as we have said many times. Sub 70-cents is coming.

    I guess it depends on what they pegged the CDN$ at when making their cap estimations. Surely someone thought of that at NHL HQ. It would be interesting to know how much the salary cap moves per penny of CDN$ swing

  31. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Agreed.

    I’m guessing 72.5

  32. Water Fire says:

    speeds:
    LT, how likely do you think it is that the collective fanbase is actually underrating how good this team is now, at least partially because the team hasn’t really been together at the same time, to this point?

    That if they get 0.920+ goaltending, add a quality RD at the deadline, and get/stay healthy, not only is this a potential playoff team, but an uncomfortable match-up for others if they get there? Not 2 years from now, but this year?

    To me assuming average goalering, the team is at the point where the next step is buy in. They have a functioning roster now, if not ideal, but capable players at every position and a coach who won’t play guys who are off the plot or not getting it done as he sees it.

    Obviously they have elite talent now and the best guy isn’t even playing. But the rubber meets the road in the playoffs especially in doing the un-fun things right and all the time, every shift. Man of the hour Khiara was a perfect model of simply winning the one on one and knocking the puck in the right direction, nothing fancy. And goals happened because the skill guys got a few kicks at the cat. This group doesn’t need many.

    When they choose to do that and get a rhythm down they’ll be a very dangerous team for anyone.

  33. Pajamah says:

    Pouzar:
    5 weeks and counting since McDavid injury.

    What is that in months?

  34. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Melman: I guess it depends on what they pegged the CDN$ at when making their cap estimations.Surely someone thought of that at NHL HQ.It would be interesting to know how much the salary cap moves per penny of CDN$ swing

    They have been dead wrong all the way through. We discussed this ad nauseum last winter. We found the NHL doesn’t hedge any Canadian dollars and their projections have been pretty much “spot” at the time they’ve been made. Canada represents over 35 percent of revenue for the league.

    The NHL needs to fire its financial planners.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Gentleman Backpacker: Didn’t see it, will track back.

    ALL: I believe the numbers are now correct.

  36. Pouzar says:

    Pajamah: What is that in months?

    Not enough

  37. JDï™ says:

    Pajamah: What is that in months?

    Almost one dog-year.

  38. Seymore says:

    The nicest two suprises this year are Nilsson and Davidson. I think the evidence is there both to the eye and stats that Davidson is a keeper. A long term cheap contract would be the smart play for Chiarelli, hopefully before Christmas. I remember Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers 5 game hot streak that just went south afterwards. Hopefully Nilsson and the Oilers don’t repeat that feat. It would be a gamble for a long term contract at this point for either Nilsson or Talbot.

    The obvious danger is getting a similar scenario as we have with Scrivens. The plus would be, should the gamble pay off is more cap space for better defense. 30 more good games by Nilsson I would pull the trigger keeping in mind we have Laurent Brossoit as insurance. Fortune favors the bold. As long as its not Mc Tavish bold.

  39. JDï™ says:

    Seymore: The nicest two suprises this year are Nilsson and Davidson.

    While I’m not disagreeing with you, Draipaidl says hi.

  40. cc says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Here would be my contract negotiation (using the number’s I listed out). I think they should be able to get a 2 million AAV deal done or close to it. Ellis’s deal was just signed last year.

    On a three year deal it should be below 1.5 AAV given his draft # and the contracts listed below.
    Year : Preferred (Max Amount)
    Year 1: 1 Million (1.25)
    Year 2: 1.25 Million (1.25)
    Year 3: 1.5 Million (1.5)
    Year 4: 2.75 Million (3)
    Year 5: 3.5 Million (4)

    5 years is the key that’s when the Sekera deal is off the books and they can role in a BD extension with Sekera dollar and have money to spare.

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide:
    Gentleman Backpacker: Didn’t see it, will track back.

    ALL: I believe the numbers are now correct.

    Let me find it for you.

  42. JDï™ says:

    http://loudwire.com/rush-neil-peart-suggests-retired/

    Well that’s too bad, but he’s had a career that most musicians only dream about.

    Thanks Neil!

  43. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: They have been dead wrong all the way through. We discussed this ad nauseum last winter. We found the NHL doesn’t hedge any Canadian dollars and their projections have been pretty much “spot” at the time they’ve been made. Canada represents over 35 percent of revenue for the league.

    The NHL needs to fire its financial planners.

    With your penetrating financial mind can you see any way somebody could profit from that? I won’t put on my tinfoil hat till after lunch, but when smart guys make strange short sighted decisions it so often seems to be about somebody getting something they don’t want folks to know about.

  44. Woodguy says:

    cc:
    Brandon Davidson is an interesting fellow.I think based on what I’ve seen is a top 4 defenseman.It’s early but he has a lot of good things going for him.

    I looked at what other similar players signed as second year contracts (I know this is BD’s third) but it was easier looking for these comps (because it’s BD’s first year playing in the NHL) and here what I came up with.

    Player – Term – AAV – Year Signed
    David Savard – 2 Years 1.3 AAV (2015)
    Jason Demers – 2 Years 1.25 AAV (2012)
    Michael Stone – 3 Years 1.15 (AAV) (2014)
    Jake Muzzin – 2 Years 1 AAV (2014)
    Alec Martinez – 2 Years 1.1 AAV (2014)
    Macro Scandella – 2 Years 1.025 (2014)
    Jeff Petry – 2 Years 1.75 (2013)
    Mattias Ekholm – 2 Years – 1.038 (2015)
    Mark Borowiecki – 3 Years – 1.1 (2014)
    Patrick Wiercioch – 3 Years – 2 (2013)
    Justin Braun – 3 Years – 1.25 (2013)
    Grant Clitsome – 2 Years – 1.25 (2012)

    Signing Davidson to a 1 or 2 year contract is a dangerous proposition because if you look at the above list many of them were making roughly 4 million on their next contract.That is also the same time that McDavid’s contract will need to be signed.The Oiler’s should start looking at identifying cheap deals for Conor’s second contract.

    Does it make sense to look at signing Davidson to a 4 or 5 year contract?If the Oiler’s believe in him should they offer a 9 million dollar deal for 5 years?If they do would Davidson sign it?

    I think that’s a fair deal for both sides.The only players that I seen sign AAV under 2.5million for 4+ year teams on their second contract’s were; Ryan Ellis 5 Years 2.5 AAV signed in 2015 (Ellis was a former 1st round pick, played 144 games & had 44 points and Luca Sbisa 4 Years – 2.175 AAV signed in 2012 again a first round pick.

    Not sure what other people think.

    Great post, thanks for all the work.

    I go as long as you can right now because you can probably keep it really close to $2MM.

    $10MM over 5 years?

    Structure could be: 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.0

    He has 3 RFA years left iirc.

  45. dustrock says:

    No Semin in the Oilers locker room. He clears waivers.

  46. Woodguy says:

    dustrock: Sorry, can’t do it.I’ll start cheering like that in the last 20 games.Still too early and still the prospect of finishing below the Flames. Again.

    The probability of CGY finishing ahead of the Oil is pretty damn low with their current goaltending issues.

    I’m assuming the occasional CGY win won’t impact anything in April and I’m probably right.

  47. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire: With your penetrating financial mind can you see any way somebody could profit from that? I won’t put on my tinfoil hat till after lunch, but when smart guys make strange short sighted decisions it so often seems to be about somebody getting something they don’t want folks to know about.

    If the NHL were engaging in hedging for currency changes, then yes. But we’ve read in articles that they don’t. So essentially they are paying for bad advice at the moment. As soon as the Rogers deal was signed, at least some of the foreign exchange risk for the life of the deal should have been hedged. That massive deal is now worth 30 percent less and no steps were taken to protect that even when it was an obvious and glaring need. In the financial world many heads would roll for that. No idea if anyone in the NHL is even aware of their gross negligence on this front.

  48. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I will take the under on 74.5m please

    By now most Canadian teams have locked in their exchange on ~80% of the C$ income so Gary is working from facts. Whether or not he actually uses the facts is up for debate.

    That being said, I can’t see 74.5 without some serious increases in US income sources for teams due to the drop from the summer in exchange.

    Gary says revenue is up, but you can never believe a thing he says.

  49. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: If the NHL were engaging in hedging for currency changes, then yes. But we’ve read in articles that they don’t. So essentially they are paying for bad advice at the moment. As soon as the Rogers deal was signed, at least some of the foreign exchange risk for the life of the deal should have been hedged. That massive deal is now worth 30 percent less and no steps were taken to protect that even when it was an obvious and glaring need. In the financial world many heads would roll for that. No idea if anyone in the NHL is even aware of their gross negligence on this front.

    The Rogers deal is ~C$14MM per team.

    The individual team income for the Oilers outside of the Rogers deal is ~C$100M.

    Its a much bigger deal for the teams to hedge themselves rather than the league.

    That being said, a couple of big forward contracts would have helped a bit here no question.

  50. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: Gary says revenue is up, but you can never believe a thing he says.

    Do not the Sportsnet and NBC deals rise incremently every year?

    If so, attendance could stay the same year to year but revenues would still increase

    EDIT: Sportsnet deal starts at $300M per year at the beginning and escalates to $500M by the end.

    EDIT 2: Looks like the NBC deal is $200M per year for 10 years, which is done in 2021.

  51. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Do you have a link or source saying they don’t hedge, that would seem a bit unusual, wouldn’t it?

    I could well be mistaken, but I thought I’d read the Oilers do some hedging on their own, would seem strange the NHL wouldn’t at least partially hedge although at the same time, if they are fine with riding the volatility as a league, certainly their call.

    *edit*
    I guess to further Woodguy’s point, maybe the league says “we don’t want to take the decision out of your hands, if you want to hedge on your own, hedge, if you don’t, don’t.” Or maybe they asked the teams and the teams preferred to deal wth it individually vs. collectively?

  52. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: The Rogers deal is ~C$14MM per team.

    The individual team income for the Oilers outside of the Rogers deal is ~C$100M.

    Its a much bigger deal for the teams to hedge themselves rather than the league.

    That being said, a couple of big forward contracts would have helped a bit here no question.

    Agreed. But the NHL sets the cap, not the teams. I don’t know if individual teams hedge. It would be smart if they did it and did it well.

    As far as the NHL goes with respect to Canadian revenues and the cap, they failed miserably.

    This year hit 71m using the inflator by the NHLPA. I don’t see that happening next year due to the high escrow. I’d think there will be flat growth at best, maybe a tiny bump. CA$H’s 72.5m sounds more reasonable and it could even be lower than that. I hope Chia goes on the assumption it will be flat at best when he makes his plans.

  53. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds,

    I will have to go dig. Links were posted here in January and February when we were discussing it. Apologies. There were links mentioning the league didn’t hedge.

  54. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    So far can’t find them. Might be easier for me to dig on this site for the posts with them.

    This article confirms what Woodguy says. Individual teams do some hedging. Even some US teams hedged for their portion of the Canadian TV deal. That’s interesting. If the NHL itself hedged why would that be necessary?
    http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/01/currency-and-ice-hockey

  55. dustrock says:

    Woodguy: The probability of CGY finishing ahead of the Oil is pretty damn low with their current goaltending issues.I’m assuming the occasional CGY win won’t impact anything in April and I’m probably right.

    You are most likely correct, but we all know that goalering is voodoo. Nilsson could fall off a cliff, and whatever Weekend at Bernie’s dead deceased corpse the Flames have in net could post Hasek-like numbers.

  56. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: If the NHL were engaging in hedging for currency changes, then yes. But we’ve read in articles that they don’t. So essentially they are paying for bad advice at the moment. As soon as the Rogers deal was signed, at least some of the foreign exchange risk for the life of the deal should have been hedged. That massive deal is now worth 30 percent less and no steps were taken to protect that even when it was an obvious and glaring need. In the financial world many heads would roll for that. No idea if anyone in the NHL is even aware of their gross negligence on this front.

    thanks

  57. judgedrude says:

    Woodguy: #Oilers forward @jujhar94 has been credited with an assist on @hallsy04’s goal on Friday for his first @NHL point!

    Get the kid the puck!

  58. Chachi says:

    Not a trade I would make, but I could see Chiarelli trade Eberle to a team like Anaheim that is having trouble scoring for a player like Nick Ritchie or Silfverberg plus plus to make the money work. Then sign Lucic in the summer and that gives the Oilers two bigger wingers although you would probably have to move Poo to get help elsewhere in the lineup. Not sure that wins you more games, but it would appease the Size Queens.

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds,

    Here we go. Best I can do for now. NHL has hedged at times in the past, but this NHL exec lets slip they didn’t hedge the Rogers deal and he was concerned.

    We have also learned that the NHL uses average past forex rates to make their revenue predictions.

    Last year they projected 73M. The cap came in at 71m after the 5% inflator from the PA. That means the real cap would have been down from 69m to 68 or so.

    The NHL makes its prediction this year for 74.5m and the Canadian dollar is weakening to fresh multi year lows as oil gets hit again. Sound familiar?

    Cap isn’t going to go up this year, if at all.

    My guess from years of experience is that the NHL probably hedged currency for years while the dollar was near parity. And they paid out money doing it thinking they were wasting money on an unnecessary service. When the big one came they didn’t want to potentially pay out 5 or so percent of that money to make sure they kept 95 percent. And so they didn’t hedge. And here we are.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/broadcast-deal-hurting-nhl-as-canadian-dollar-declines/article24040463/?service=mobile

  60. Genjutsu says:

    I’m really not OK with getting rid of either Ebs out Shultz.

    I’m convinced that Fayne and Gryba are gone at the deadline.

    That would leave this team team with with zero RHS players.

  61. John Chambers says:

    The Oilers are still one of the worst teams in the league in terms of offensive production from their D.

    Sekara and Klefbom are good in this respect, but Jultz’s 2 whole assists demonstrate what a stark contrast we have with top teams who usually have a defenseman among their top-5 for team scoring.

    I think it’s becoming clearer that Schultz ain’t going to live up to the rather high potential previously expected of him, and obtaining a guy who can be some kind of powerplay threat from the blue as well as a D who can transition the puck have to be the team’s priority.

  62. John Chambers says:

    Chachi,

    Eberle to Anaheim for Fowler would be a basis for a trade benefitting both teams.

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Cripes, I just reread that LeBrun post. 74.5m includes the inflator. Yikes. Take that away and it is flat. Anyone notice that?
    Without it it’s 70.775m.

    Will the players automatically exercise it? Escrow has been very high for them.

    I hope someone in the Oilers organization reads these threads and lets the boss know there will likely be no cap growth to bank on whatsoever next year so spend his dollars wisely.

  64. russ99 says:

    John Chambers:

    I think it’s becoming clearer that Schultz ain’t going to live up to the rather high potential previously expected of him, and obtaining a guy who can be some kind of powerplay threat from the blue as well as a D who can transition the puck have to be the team’s priority.

    Other than biases carrying over from previous years, I don’t get why Schultz is being written off so early. He’s played 14 games this year and hasn’t hurt the team defensively based on the eyes and the numbers.

    He’s also being deployed incorrectly on the powerplay, he’s not a point shooter, and when paired with Klefbom, he’s got a more defensive focus.

    Over the next 20 games, we’ll see different results for him offense wise as our skill players get back and the systems play becomes second nature.

    Then even if he’s not part of the plan next year, we can get good trade value for him.

  65. Rebilled says:

    I don’t think PC will trade anybody until he gets to see the whole team on the ice.

    Ebs out to start season.
    McDavid out.
    Ebs in.
    Yak out.

    Looking forward to:

    McDavid in
    Yak in.

    There’s some music.

  66. fifthcartel says:

    With the cap space the Oilers will have and the cap likely not going to be that high they will be in a very very good position.

    Not only that, but moving into a new arena should make them extra motivated to turn north and put a really good product on the ice. I can’t imagine they want any headlines about how the team is still awful in a new building.

    This has me pretty excited.

  67. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Cripes, I just reread that LeBrun post. 74.5m includes the inflator. Yikes. Take that away and it is flat. Anyone notice that?
    Without it it’s 70.775m.

    Will the players automatically exercise it? Escrow has been very high for them.

    I hope someone in the Oilers organization reads these threads and lets the boss know there will likely be no cap growth to bank on whatsoever next year so spend his dollars wisely.

    I noticed that off the bat.

    74.5 means another inflator and the players essentially give back half their salaries (a little hyperbole, but still) in escrow. No way they do that.

    They’ll let their unsigned brethren sink rather than give up more money as a group for another year.

    I would engage Davidson now in extension talks as noted above using the flat cap as a motivator for him to sign long-term.

    And if the Oilers can avoid exchanging any players for contracts that have another year on them things could turn out quite nicely.

    The flat cap could have some VERY serious consequences for the Flames’ resigning efforts this summer. Makes Wideman a much harder asset to move now. I’ll have to look into that.

  68. OilClog says:

    Eberle for Fowler?! Are we getting 5 years of 1st’s with that?

  69. pocession charge says:

    russ99: Other than biases carrying over from previous years, I don’t get why Schultz is being written off so early. He’s played 14 games this year and hasn’t hurt the team defensively based on the eyes and the numbers.

    He’s also being deployed incorrectly on the powerplay, he’s not a point shooter, and when paired with Klefbom, he’s got a more defensive focus.

    Over the next 20 games, we’ll see different results for him offense wise as our skill players get back and the systems play becomes second nature.

    Then even if he’s not part of the plan next year, we can get good trade value for him.

    He’s not that good offensively or defensively, and the team would need to qualify him at almost $4M per year. That is not good value. Besides, he is not a Chiarelli-type of player so don’t get too attached.

  70. RexLibris says:

    Schultz and Yakupov are pretty attractive assets to have right now.

    Everybody was saying the Oilers would have to break up the band once the ELCs wore off.

    Eberle, Hall and Hopkins are on nice-to-fantastic deals for the foreseeable future.

    Draisaitl has two years remaining, McDavid three and both have the same number of RFA years remaining afterwards.

    This isn’t going to be easy, but Chiarelli has good assets in the right places, namely money on the cap, depth down the middle, a young blueline with core pieces under contract, and affordable young players available to trade.

    The window is small because of McDavid’s 2nd contract estimates, but it is there. .

  71. Chachi says:

    John Chambers:
    Chachi,

    Eberle to Anaheim for Fowler would be a basis for a trade benefitting both teams.

    Agreed, but Fowler is another left shot d (not sure if he plays the right side) and as crazy as it sounds I am not sure you get him for Eberle.

  72. Chachi says:

    OilClog,

    I think people have to prepare for a really underwhelming return on Eberle. He most certainly will be the best player in any trade he is involved in.

  73. haters says:

    Sup nerds
    Henrique and Larrson for
    Nuge Shultz/Fayne

    Is this crazy ?

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    RexLibris:
    Schultz and Yakupov are pretty attractive assets to have right now.

    Everybody was saying the Oilers would have to break up the band once the ELCs wore off.

    Eberle, Hall and Hopkins are on nice-to-fantastic deals for the foreseeable future.

    Draisaitl has two years remaining, McDavid three and both have the same number of RFA years remaining afterwards.

    This isn’t going to be easy, but Chiarelli has good assets in the right places, namely money on the cap, depth down the middle, a young blueline with core pieces under contract, and affordable young players available to trade.

    The window is small because of McDavid’s 2nd contract estimates, but it is there. .

    Yakupov I agree with. Oilers can make it work if they get creative. Said it last summer and as well as Teddy is playing now you can replace him with a Stempniak type for cheaper.

    If the Oilers assume
    Hall 6
    Eberle 6
    RNH 6
    Klefbom 4.1
    Yakupov 4
    Nurse 2.5
    Sekera 5.5
    Drai 3

    With Drai and Nurse on bridge deals and Yak on something like 4m over 3 on an extension, which is being generous at this stage…
    What do you pay McDavid on the 2nd deal?

  75. Bag of Pucks says:

    In terms of who they sign/trade and who they do not….

    One thing that I think will be interesting to watch over the season is how the Oilers’ smaller players react to the new regime’s demands on increasing their overall battle level?

    The NHL is a rugged league and inevitably lighter players like Schultz, Eberle and RNH will be challenged with the conundrum of how they consistently and effectively battle along the wall or in the slot whilst avoiding injury?

    There’s a completely logical and instinctual sense of self preservation that can creep into a lighter player’s game through learned experience. Get hammered on that aggressive forecheck enough and eventually you lose a step to let the D get to the wall first.

    This is what I see a lot with the Oilers’ less physical players. It’s not that they never engage in the battles in the high contact areas, it’s that they are often not the initiators, preferring to take a more passive/protective approach that thus diminishes their advantage and odds of winning these battles. Encouraging: it’s an area that is definitely improving with some of the players under TMac.

    You can’t blame them. Getting stapled to the wall hurts like hell. But if I know Chia, he is tracking things like % of puck battles initiated and % of puck battles won, and if a player appears passive by these metrics, it could be viewed as a strike(s).

    Chia/TMac want a team that can cycle the puck in the O zone and break the cycle in the D zone. I think we can take that to the bank as a filter through which to consider player assessment.

  76. John Chambers says:

    haters:
    Sup nerds
    Henrique and Larrson for
    Nuge Shultz/Fayne

    Is this crazy ?

    You never want to be trading the best player in the deal, nor a player who will be one if the leagues best value contracts in short order.

    If Nuge gets dealt for a D the aim should be higher than Larsson IMO.

  77. khildahl says:

    Woodguy:
    I know it feels wrong but we want CGY to beat SJS tonight.

    I feel dirty.

    Fuck you, woodje!

  78. Water Fire says:

    haters:
    Sup nerds
    Henrique and Larrson for
    Nuge Shultz/Fayne

    Is this crazy ?

    Not if Larsson is a guaranteed top 5 in league RHD. I’m not sure he is. I’d be wary of any D from NJ or Florida. Actually any player. Many players have not translated well to other teams from those two.

  79. kinger_OIL says:

    – The Cap is quoted in $USD. Most of the league revenue is in USD$, even with approx 30% of receipts from the Canadian teams.

    – Bums in seats is still the majority of revenue per team, and the highest percentage of overall revenue of any of the major-leagues in North America

    – Some teams have TV rights sold locally, on top of the Roger’s deal and the US deal, that is a league-deal

    – “Hedging” on a league level is really complicated, because the league doesn’t control the majority of the revenue (unlike the NFL or NBA), and the Canadian teams generate a lot of the revenue but are less than a third of the teams.

    – The teams no doubt “Hedge” their salaries, in Canada for USD$, but that;’s a local business decision.

  80. jake70 says:

    Wonder if the “World Cup” next September is being considered for revenue. I am going to 4 games involving either Canada or NA, and I can tell you it cost me more than a few pennies for those tickets. Not sure what the overall sales are like though.

  81. LoDog says:

    Davidson has looked real good but 5 year contract after 29 NHL games? Maybe wait just a little longer and see if he can keep it up.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    speeds:
    LT, how likely do you think it is that the collective fanbase is actually underrating how good this team is now, at least partially because the team hasn’t really been together at the same time, to this point?

    That if they get 0.920+ goaltending, add a quality RD at the deadline, and get/stay healthy, not only is this a potential playoff team, but an uncomfortable match-up for others if they get there? Not 2 years from now, but this year?

    The talent appears to make playoffs a certainty.

    Next game v San Jose:

    “Meaningful hockey in December”

  83. blainer says:

    speeds:
    LT, how likely do you think it is that the collective fanbase is actually underrating how good this team is now, at least partially because the team hasn’t really been together at the same time, to this point?

    That if they get 0.920+ goaltending, add a quality RD at the deadline, and get/stay healthy, not only is this a potential playoff team, but an uncomfortable match-up for others if they get there? Not 2 years from now, but this year?

    I actually think there is a chance this happens.

    Nillsson is in the Zone right now. He is challenging every shot with excellent lateral movement.. for the first time since forever I feel confident with the goaltending. The players do too.

    Nilly is The number one reason I think we can get there. Not only that but if he puts in a Rollie type of performance in the playoffs we will be a team nobody wants to play.

    We WILL have unicorns when this team gets healthy and if we make a deadline deal for Big Buff watch out !!

    Now I do believe the glass is half full !

  84. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – The Cap is quoted in $USD.Most of the league revenue is in USD$, even with approx 30% of receipts from the Canadian teams.

    – Bums in seats is still the majority of revenue per team, and the highest percentage of overall revenue of any of the major-leagues in North America

    – Some teams have TV rights sold locally, on top of the Roger’s deal and the US deal, that is a league-deal

    – “Hedging” on a league level is really complicated, because the league doesn’t control the majority of the revenue (unlike the NFL or NBA), and the Canadian teams generate a lot of the revenue but are less than a third of the teams.

    – The teams no doubt “Hedge” their salaries, in Canada for USD$, but that;’s a local business decision.

    – We know. No one said the cap is in CAD. 35 percent of revenue comes from Canada and 55 percent of the profits.
    – Yes, but we are talking cap effects at a league wide level. Tickets are primary but TV revenue does matter.
    -Obviously teams have local TV deals also. No one said otherwise.
    -Hedging isn’t that complicated. You could do it I could do it. The right person could do it.
    -Teams do make their own hedging decisions. In the articles above.

    The NHL has consistently missed on their forex assumptions and cap projections because they are basing their forex levels on past data (average of the prior months). There is no forward anticipation.

  85. Melman says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I can also see the appeal for teams to want to hedge individually as they might simply have different hedging strategies. It’s a tricky play to work out on your own let alone trying to get 30 people to agree to it. Particularly as so many teams are part of a bigger conglomerate.

    If you are Katz or Aquilini, do you want Snyder, Sinden, MSG and MLSE setting your hedging strategy? Me thinks not.

  86. Bag of Pucks says:

    John Chambers: You never want to be trading the best player in the deal, nor a player who will be one if the leagues best value contracts in short order.

    If Nuge gets dealt for a D the aim should be higher than Larsson IMO.

    The year of their draft, ISS had Larsson rated as the 2nd best draft prospect overall behind only Nuge.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NHL_Entry_Draft

    Given the Oilers’ massive positional need for blue chip RHD, his age fit with the core, recent and rapid improvement with the Devils, I’m not sure the Oilers lose a Nuge for Larsson deal. Particularly if you’re looking at it from the pov of roster balance post trade.

    As a hypothetical, let’s transport that draft scenario to present day. With McDavid and Leon in the fold, and the Oil on the clock, do they still pick Nuge over the potential franchise D?

    Btw, I just ran the Vollman on NJ D and Larsson is a Top 2 D now. His bubble’s in the desired quadrant. Just needs a little more blue in it to be elite. He’ll get there, especially on a team where the Fs are not so pathetic.

  87. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: What do you pay McDavid on the 2nd deal?

    ALL THE MONEYS!

    *ahem*

    Sorry.

    I think McDavid looks right now like a top-end extension north of Stamkos’ deal, so probably in that Crosby/Ovechkin range depending on where the cap sits two years from now as well as, and this is extremely important, his own approach.

    Iirc, Crosby actually took less than some suggested because he wanted a team to be filled out around him. McDavid will likely have no issue making money in his career and seems quite driven and focused on a team environment so depending on his agent, he may actually take less than the expected amount with the understanding that the difference be used to help retain talent throughout the rest of the team in order to help them win.

    Chicago’s example over the next two years will likely prove instrumental in this regard.

  88. SwedishPoster says:

    Wouldn’t the Oilers want the cap to stay as low as possible until it’s time to sign McDavid (and Nurse) long term, the lower the cap the lower the cap hit for McDavid which would go a long way towards staying competitive through his whole career. Or until he signs in Toronto like every other star…

  89. Jordan says:

    LoDog:
    Davidson has looked real good but 5 year contract after 29 NHL games? Maybe wait just a little longer and see if he can keep it up.

    Don’t disagree with you, but do want to play devil’s advocate.

    Davidson has played 141 WHL, 150 AHL, 11 ECHL and 29 NHL games since being drafted.

    During that time he also recovered from Testicular Cancer, and has lost time due to other injuries as well.

    I think you could get him for 5 y X 1.2 M = 6 M. It’s a very low risk move for the team, and gives a guy who probably just wants an NHL paycheck enough security that he might go for it.

    It’s also a good bet he could out-perform that deal. The only risk is term, both for the team and the player. So, on that front, I’d say it’s a wash.

  90. PhrankLee says:

    hunter1909: Next game v San Jose:

    Logan is back after his stint on IR.

    I think he makes the Sharks a helluva lot better.

    I still cannot fathom us making the playoffs. I cannot believe Anaheim is as bad as their record at this point.

    Vancouver is though and it feels great!!

  91. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    LT, so disappointing you never responded to my Natalie Wood post the other day. Thought I nailed it!

    I will take the under on 74.5m please. The Canadian dollar is f*cked, as we have said many times. Sub 70-cents is coming.

    I wonder is there any moneys due from Rogers and other media that increase revenues..

    And if so would that not make up for the Canadian $.

    Edit : After reading through Guess this has been covered..

  92. AsiaOil says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Oh god that deal would make me giggle after all those knock down drag out arguments I had with Bruce over Nuge vs Larsson during the run up to their draft. Funny how the issues never change. Is Larsson elite? Can Nuge score enough at ES? Same as it ever was.

  93. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer: I wonder is there any moneys due from Rogers and other media that increase revenues..

    And if so would that not make up for the Canadian $.

    No. That’s an inclusive number. Read all the posts since this one for reference.

  94. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris: ALL THE MONEYS!

    *ahem*

    Sorry.

    I think McDavid looks right now like a top-end extension north of Stamkos’ deal, so probably in that Crosby/Ovechkin range depending on where the cap sits two years from now as well as, and this is extremely important, his own approach.

    Iirc, Crosby actually took less than some suggested because he wanted a team to be filled out around him. McDavid will likely have no issue making money in his career and seems quite driven and focused on a team environment so depending on his agent, he may actually take less than the expected amount with the understanding that the difference be used to help retain talent throughout the rest of the team in order to help them win.

    Chicago’s example over the next two years will likely prove instrumental in this regard.

    9.7M over 8 years

  95. Магия 10 says:

    Jordan: I think you could get him for 5 y X 1.2 M = 6 M.

    How many 5 year deals averaging 1.2M or less per do you think were signed by players the last few years?

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    AsiaOil:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Oh god that deal would make me giggle after all those knock down drag out arguments I had with Bruce over Nuge vs Larsson during the run up to their draft. Funny how the issues never change. Is Larsson elite? Can Nuge score enough at ES? Same as it ever was.

    Agreed. One thing that history seems to indicate is the previous mgmt regime was inherently conservative, and likely very optics focused with those 1ov picks. They always picked the consensus no.1. Despite some of those 1ovs having warts (RNH pp skew, Yak’s play away from the puck, Hall’s injury history) entering the draft.

  97. Jordan says:

    Магия 10: How many 5 year deals averaging 1.2M or less per do you think were signed by players the last few years?

    How many years have seen an effective Salary Cap increase of 0% without an escalator?

    Some people would rather have stability than risk everything on a big deal. I could be wrong, but based on my experience with people who’ve had significant health issues early on in life, I expect that kind of security would be very appealing.

    frjohnk: 9.7M over 8 years

    I’d be working on 8X8. Don’t know if it’s possible, but I think that ~2M/year is needed for additional depth.

  98. kinger_OIL says:

    Melman:
    kinger_OIL,

    I can also see the appeal for teams to want to hedge individually as they might simply have different hedging strategies.It’s a tricky play to work out on your own let alone trying to get 30 people to agree to it.Particularly as so many teams are part of a bigger conglomerate.

    If you are Katz or Aquilini, do you want Snyder, Sinden, MSG and MLSE setting your hedging strategy?Me thinks not.

    – Exactly – I didn’t spell that out specifically, but given the non-hemogeneous wealth and interest of the teams and owners, and the lack of of revenue hammer by the NHL, it’s totally understandable.

    – Katz, MLSE et al can figure out exactly how much exposure they want, because so much of their team’s profits are derived in CAD$, and they have other businesses.

    – Bettman: “Hey Katz, great news your pro-rated $12MM CAD share of Rogers deal has been hedged, we are giving you X$ in USD$” Katz: :”F/u, I run a multi-national multi-billion revenue company, I will do my own hedging thank-you very much, what do you know about my needs? Just tell me how much the cap is, and I will manage fine”

  99. Spoils says:

    goals:

    #1) add a #1D – I’d be willing to trade a core FW and top picks for this position SERIOUSLY it is THAT important. target teams like Nashville with solid D (Jones, Josie, Weber) and low scoring, or teams like AZ that need to invest in the future (how about OEL for our top pick in 16 & 17 and some other prospects and say a cool player like Yak if he shows good at the end of the year).

    #2) add big wingers – if we have size it means we are more likely to be the ones doing the hitting which means we get hit less. this is KEY to supporting our small precious superstars.

    #3) add some clutch – Lander, Letestu, Korpikoski… these bottom guys can really push a team over the top (read Pisani, Harvey, graves/murphy/gelinas)

  100. Water Fire says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    In terms of who they sign/trade and who they do not….

    One thing that I think will be interesting to watch over the season is how the Oilers’ smaller players react to the new regime’s demands on increasing their overall battle level?

    The NHL is a rugged league and inevitably lighter players like Schultz, Eberle and RNH will be challenged with the conundrum of how they consistently and effectively battle along the wall or in the slot whilst avoiding injury?

    There’s a completely logical and instinctual sense of self preservation that can creep into a lighter player’s game through learned experience. Get hammered on that aggressive forecheck enough and eventually you lose a step to let the D get to the wall first.

    This is what I see a lot with the Oilers’ less physical players. It’s not that they never engage in the battles in the high contact areas, it’s that they are often not the initiators, preferring to take a more passive/protective approach that thus diminishes their advantage and odds of winning these battles. Encouraging: it’s an area that is definitely improving with some of the players under TMac.

    You can’t blame them. Getting stapled to the wall hurts like hell. But if I know Chia, he is tracking things like % of puck battles initiated and % of puck battles won, and if a player appears passive by these metrics, it could be viewed as a strike(s).

    Chia/TMac want a team that can cycle the puck in the O zone and break the cycle in the D zone. I think we can take that to the bank as a filter through which to consider player assessment.

    It’s attitude that matters. Brad Marchand is tiny and an animal on skates. Gallagher on the Habs etc etc.

    Yak plays a hard game. Eberle and Nuge don’t, but Nuge gets his nose dirty and is effective on the boards.

  101. frjohnk says:

    blainer: I wonder is there any moneys due from Rogers and other media that increase revenues..
    And if so would that not make up for the Canadian $.

    As far as I understand is that the Rogers deal goes from $300M and escalates to $500M by the end of the 12 year deal.

    So on average it increases by just under $20M per year.

    NBC deal looks to be the same each year.

    So a $20M dollar increase from tv revenue is a small drop in the bucket of $3.7B.

    And would not offset the decline in the C$ from last year.

  102. haters says:

    John Chambers,

    Water Fire,

    Bag of Pucks,

    Great responses.
    The Henrique item is the big point in this deal imo
    He projects much better in a 3rd line Defensive specialist role than Nuge will. Nuge is an amazing talent, but Larsson and Henrique would be ample enough return imo. Do you think the ask is to much from us ? Shultz is playing fine hockey this year and his minutes match well.

    The old adage of giving something to get something apply’s here for sure.

    I know giving up Nuge is not a popular idea on this thread with good damn reason but we need that RHD today or at the latest tomorrow if we want to start to talk playoffs.

    Maybe we could throw in Korpse as a sweetener lol…..

  103. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy:
    WOODGUY says:
    December 8, 2015 at 8:55 am
    @TheChrisWescott: RT @EdmontonOilers: #Oilers forward @jujhar94 has been credited with an assist on @hallsy04’s goal on Friday for his first @NHL point! http…

    Awesome!

    If there’s one player I’m cheering for, it’s Khaira!

  104. Revolved says:

    Woodguy:
    @TheChrisWescott: RT @EdmontonOilers: #Oilers forward @jujhar94 has been credited with an assist on @hallsy04’s goal on Friday for his first @NHL point! http…

    I thought that looked like a clean enough possession after he knocked down the puck!

    He also really showed the same ability knocking down the outlet pass in game 1. Speed is at such a premium in this NHL, that alone could land him a job over Yakimov.

    Good early showing, keep the points coming young man.

  105. frjohnk says:

    This is the increase in attendance in each city from last year.

    Anaheim -899
    Arizona -67
    Boston 0
    Buffalo -410
    Calgary 39
    Carolina -1835
    Chicago -127
    Colorado 75
    Columbus -1084
    Dallas 764
    Detroit 0
    Edmonton 0
    Florida 1803
    Los Angeles -20
    Minnesota -12
    Montreal 2
    Nashville -10
    New Jersey -1284
    NY Islanders -2699
    NY Rangers 0
    Ottawa -698
    Philadelphia -129
    Pittsburgh -88
    San Jose -2200
    St. Louis -305
    Tampa Bay 269
    Toronto 246
    Vancouver -319
    Washington -593
    Winnipeg 257

    Lots of negatives in there.

    Attendance is down Gary.

  106. blainer says:

    frjohnk: As far as I understand is that the Rogers deal goes from $300M and escalates to $500M by the end of the 12 year deal.

    So on average it increases by just under $20M per year.

    NBC deal looks to be the same each year.

    So a $20M dollar increase from tv revenue is a small drop in the bucket of $3.7B.

    And would not offset the decline in the C$ from last year.

    Ya thanks for that. Needed to read through the posts before posting on the issue.

    Backpacker is usually on top of the dollar problems and makes good sense on the topic as well.

    I think a low salary cap really helps us over the next couple of years.

    On a separate note..

    Agreed that Ference Fayne and Shultz are gone next year. No way we pay Shultz $4 plus next year unless he magically figures out how to play D.

    I’m anticipating either a trade for Hamonic or a Buff signing for next season.

    Absolutely NO way I am trading for another D from the east for Nuge..

    I want nothing less than Doughty for Nuge.. Nuge just never gives up on the puck and can skate miles and is a takeaway machine. I am sure the Kings feel the same way about Doughty.

    The mimute we traded Nuge we would be looking to get him back. Find another way to acquire a D please.

  107. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yakupov I agree with. Oilers can make it work if they get creative. Said it last summer and as well as Teddy is playing now you can replace him witha Stempniak type for cheaper.

    If the Oilers assume
    Hall 6
    Eberle 6
    RNH 6
    Klefbom 4.1
    Yakupov 4
    Nurse 2.5
    Sekera 5.5
    Drai 3

    With Drai and Nurse on bridge deals and Yak on something like 4m over 3 on an extension, which is being generous at this stage…
    What do you pay McDavid on the 2nd deal?

    Via Hockey’s Cap, a roster with all of the core still:

    Hall 6 McDavid 8 Eberle 6

    Pou 4 Nuge 6 Yak 4

    Lander 1.25 Drai 3 XXX .925

    XXX 1 Letestu 1.8 XXX 1

    XXX 1 XXX 1

    Klef 4.167 XXX 6.5
    Nurse 2.5 Sekera 5.5
    XXX 1 XXX 1
    XXX .863

    Nilsson 3 Talbot 1.75

    Roster 23, cap 71.4, Cap hit 71.25, bonuses 3.7, space ~.14

    The numbers can be adjusted a bit, as in removing one high paid winger means another position can be paid more. Continually developing players and signing useful UFA’s cheap means you get to keep the talent. Chia has to be ruthless on the bottom of the roster.

    When someone is up for a raise he takes a spot or gets moved. The timing here is fortunate because if the dollar keeps the cap low the contracts should be more favourable than some we’ve seen in the last few years.

    They are also very fortunate in McDavid’s personality because I can see him putting winning before needing to be the highest paid in the league. For him missing a few million in his career won’t put a dent in his future wealth.

    It would affect other players more and they might look at career earnings potential especially if they are on teams with a lower chance of winning the Cup. CMD’s endorsements will be obscene, salary or not he’ll be the highest earning player of his cohort, and G Backpacker can invest his money for him!

  108. Bag of Pucks says:

    Water Fire: It’s attitude that matters. Brad Marchand is tiny and an animal on skates. Gallagher on the Habs etc etc.

    Yak plays a hard game. Eberle and Nuge don’t, but Nuge gets his nose dirty and is effective on the boards.

    I think height/weight ratio and durability is a factor too in how physical a player can be, or more specifically, how effective they can be playing a physical game.

    Both Marchand and Gallagher are stocky guys with a low center of gravity. Those guys can be hard for taller D men to out-leverage on the wall. If you can’t pin them, they’ll pivot off for a quick pass or shot.

    Schultz & RNH, and Ebs to a lesser extent are leaner players. That hampers their effectiveness in puck battles imo. When traffic gets tight, you can hit or lean them off the puck. This is what Chia refers to as being able to play with a ‘heavy’ stick. That’s why, for ages, the opposition book on the Oil has been to funnel the skill to the boards and force them to play the cycle game. Nice to see Hall and Drai changing that paradigm as we speak. They play the cycle game well.

    Attitude doesn’t trump physics imo.

    One thing I’ll say in Nuge’s defense here as well. He does seem committed to adding weight/strength each offseason which is more than you can say for Jultz until this past year.

  109. Pouzar says:

    Le Sigh.

  110. LoDog says:

    Jordan,

    Well if he would take that deal them sign him up.

  111. Bag of Pucks says:

    haters:
    John Chambers,

    Water Fire,

    Bag of Pucks,

    Great responses.
    The Henrique item is the big point in this deal imo
    He projects much better in a 3rd line Defensive specialist role than Nuge will. Nuge is an amazing talent, but Larsson and Henrique would be ample enough return imo. Do you think the ask is to much from us ? Shultz is playing fine hockey this year and his minutes match well.

    The old adage of giving something to get something apply’s here for sure.

    I know giving up Nuge is not a popular idea on this thread with good damn reason but we need that RHD today or at the latest tomorrow if we want to start to talk playoffs.

    Maybe we could throw in Korpse as a sweetener lol…..

    What if the Devils wanted to dump that Zajac contract instead of Henrique (the latter being Hall’s teammate in Windsor btw)?

    Say, Zajac and Larsson for RNH and Schultz or Reinhart?

    Would you do that deal?

  112. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    That is the type of trade that keeps the Oilers at the bottom of the standings for the next 10 years. Zajac get paid 5.7 million for the next 100 years. He does not score. And he is old.

  113. dustrock says:

    The fact that the NHL now has done away with the draft pick compensation rule but made it effective January 1st is just idiotic.

    If you’ve already given a draft pick (Edmonton’s 3rd to SJ) then fine, but why make it effective January 1st?

    If you’re going to fire a coach or GM in the next month, make sure you do it December 31st, not January 1st.

  114. PhrankLee says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Hey Gerta. I really appreciate your diligent linking to coach here. I’m lazy and poor at operating the webs.

    Post game, off day. Anyhow good on you, thanks.

  115. Water Fire says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think height/weight ratio and durability is a factor too in how physical a player can be, or more specifically, how effective they can be playing a physical game.

    Both Marchand and Gallagher are stocky guys with a low center of gravity. Those guys can be hard for taller D men to out-leverage on the wall. If you can’t pin them, they’ll pivot off for a quick pass or shot.

    Schultz & RNH, and Ebs to a lesser extent are leaner players. That hampers their effectiveness in puck battles imo. When traffic gets tight, you can hit or lean them off the puck. This is what Chia refers to as being able to play with a ‘heavy’ stick. That’s why, for ages, the opposition book on the Oil has been to funnel the skill to the boards and force them to play the cycle game. Nice to see Hall and Drai changing that paradigm as we speak. They play the cycle game well.

    Attitude doesn’t trump physics imo.

    I agree, I call it strength. I don’t see Nuge as soft on the puck, and I value his hockey IQ so much that I would get players to compliment what he brings which is I think is rare, as opposed to dumping him for size. There are only a couple of centres his age I would put in his range and they aren’t any harder than he is.

    So the question is for me are Eberle and Yak the right types for McD and Nuge? Drai is because he plays heavy but has enough speed and has the skill. Probably one goes and they go after Lucic or something.

  116. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    Le Sigh.

    Yup..

  117. blainer says:

    Bag of Pucks: What if the Devils wanted to dump that Zajac contract instead of Henrique (the latter being Hall’s teammate in Windsor btw)?

    Say, Zajac and Larsson for RNH and Schultz or Reinhart?

    Would you do that deal?

    NO !

  118. Gerta Rauss says:

    PhrankLee,

    You’re welcome

    It’s kind of my thing going back to the Pat Quinn “must see TV” days

    I post the audio because it’s easier for the folks browsing on their phones

    I’ve always liked the contrast of the coach’s message direct from his mouth against the hyperbole/speculation of the internet

    I don’t post much – I’ll post when I have something unique to add – and the podcasts are an area I feel I can contribute to the forum

  119. blainer says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    TMac off day audio

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=53085

    Very disappointing remarks from the coach re playoffs. Not looking ahead for the San Jose game and playoff implications..

    Not interested in talking playoffs..

    Jeebus some respect for Hall Ebs and gang as well as us fans who have suffered here for years..

    YES they should be looking at this game as a way to make the playoffs.. I bet the players are..

    Give your head a shake coach…

    We want playoffs and you should be coaching for that..

  120. LoDog says:

    Wait, who is being traded today? Nuge? Nuge and Eberle? Sheesh can’t have nice things in Edmonton.

    How about this?

    RNH McDavid Pick a big strong GOOD player here

    Hall Draisaitl Eberle

    The Nuge on the wing makes a lot of sense to me.

  121. Cameron says:

    Chachi: Agreed, but Fowler is another left shot d (not sure if he plays the right side) and as crazy as it sounds I am not sure you get him for Eberle.

    Sorry, but Anaheim can get a lot more for Fowler than a $6m winger with injury issues.

    Also, there is zero incentive for them to make a deal for a winger, let alone by sending their best Dman to a team they compete with in the Pacific.

    Would they move Fowler for an up and coming C to advance in role as Kesler/Getzlaf age out? Sure, that might work, but I don’t see a lot of appetite around here for making that deal.

    I see the issue as fundamentally one of position. Few GMs are going to move a D for a winger anymore, unless it is an overpay – and not a lot of the deals that come out of speculation round here qualify as an overpay.

  122. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cameron,

    miss 3 games in 3 seasons and no one bats an eye

    miss 13 games in a season and you’re injury prone

  123. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Cameron,

    Explain how Eberle has injury issues? Prior to this year Eberle was one of the few consistently healthy Oilers. Shouldn’t you be patrolling Flamesnation.

  124. Woodguy says:

    khildahl: Fuck you, woodje!

    Excellent work.

  125. Snowman says:

    blainer: Very disappointing remarks from the coach re playoffs. Not looking ahead for the San Jose game and playoff implications..

    Not interested in talking playoffs..

    Jeebus some respect for Hall Ebs and gang as well as us fans who have suffered here for years..

    YES they should be looking at this game as a way to make the playoffs.. I bet the players are..

    Give your head a shake coach…

    We want playoffs and you should be coaching for that..

    Pretty sure he should be coaching them to win games. Nobody coaches to make playoffs. He coaches to win the next game.

    I don’t give one single shit if Maclellan literally never talks about the playoffs. If they win games that’s all I care about.

    When you win the playoffs are a given.

  126. Adam Wu says:

    blainer: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=53085

    Um, that just sounds like the standard canned “never look ahead beyond the next game” talk that all NHL coaches and players say when asked about playoff implications this early in a season (as in you never talk playoffs this early to the media, even if you’re privately thinking it).

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Bag of Pucks,

    That is the type of trade that keeps the Oilers at the bottom of the standings for the next 10 years. Zajac get paid 5.7 million for the next 100 years. He does not score. And he is old.

    Agreed. I think that Zajac contract is a poison pill.

  128. Bag of Pucks says:

    Water Fire: I agree, I call it strength. I don’t see Nuge as soft on the puck, and I value his hockey IQ so much that I would get players to compliment what he brings which is I think is rare, as opposed to dumping him for size. There are only a couple of centres his age I would put in his range and they aren’t any harder than he is.

    So the question is for me are Eberle and Yak the right types for McD and Nuge? Drai is because he plays heavy but has enough speed and has the skill. Probably one goes and they go after Lucic or something.

    Yep, I can get behind this pov. I like Nuge in combination with bigger wingers.

    Eberle I think is the most likely trade candidate if/when they go hunting for the mythical great white D. LT seems to have arrived at that conclusion as well – FINALLY ; )

  129. blainer says:

    Cameron: Sorry, but Anaheim can get a lot more for Fowler than a $6m winger with injury issues.

    Also, there is zero incentive for them to make a deal for a winger, let alone by sending their best Dman to a team they compete with in the Pacific.

    Would they move Fowler for an up and coming C to advance in role as Kesler/Getzlaf age out? Sure, that might work, but I don’t see a lot of appetite around here for making that deal.

    I see the issue as fundamentally one of position. Few GMs are going to move a D for a winger anymore, unless it is an overpay – and not a lot of the deals that come out of speculation round here qualify as an overpay.

    Don’t know which Fowler you are watching..

    He has been a healthy scratch a times.. I put him in the same class as Shultz.

    If Chia made that trade I would say that would be the beginning of the end here for him.

    You post some really crazy things sometimes but this post has to top all of them..

  130. blainer says:

    Adam Wu: Um, that just sounds like the standard canned “never look ahead beyond the next game” talk that all NHL coaches and players say when asked about playoff implications this early in a season (as in you never talk playoffs this early to the media, even if you’re privately thinking it).

    Well I guess that does make sense but I really didn’t like the way he talked about it.

    Absolutely agree the focus should always be about the next game and it is defiantly early in the season for playoff talk for most teams.. but I am desperate for playoff talk in December.. How long has it been for us to even say that dirty word this early.. PLAYOFFS.. there I said it !!

  131. LOObird says:

    Cameron: Sorry, but Anaheim can get a lot more for Fowler than a $6m winger with injury issues.

    Also, there is zero incentive for them to make a deal for a winger, let alone by sending their best Dman to a team they compete with in the Pacific.

    Would they move Fowler for an up and coming C to advance in role as Kesler/Getzlaf age out? Sure, that might work, but I don’t see a lot of appetite around here for making that deal.

    I see the issue as fundamentally one of position. Few GMs are going to move a D for a winger anymore, unless it is an overpay – and not a lot of the deals that come out of speculation round here qualify as an overpay.

    I don’t think injury issues means what you think it means.

    Before this season Eberle missed a grand total of 20 games combined.

    Gaudreau missed two games last season. You should be really concerned with his injury issues.

  132. stevezie says:

    The Schultz-Fowler comparison seems a good one. I don’t watch the ducks much, but other than his rookie season Fowler’s numbers sure don’t match his reputation.

    I know a D is more important to a team than a RW, but Eberle is a more effective hockey player. Sucker’s trade.

  133. RexLibris says:

    Eberle missed games in his rookie season because he had his appendix out.

    Definition of soft! The guy literally couldn’t stomach the NHL his first year!

  134. rickithebear says:

    Boys growing to men:
    youngest to oldest.

    18-20yr pre core development
    Mcdavid 18yr 3yr @ 3.775M MacT won the lottery!
    Draisatl 20yr 2 yr @ 3.4M MacT
    Nurse 20yr 3yr @ 1.744m MacT
    keep all

    21-23 core development
    Khaira 21yr 2yr @ .894M Tambo
    Yakupov 22yr 2yr @ 2.5M Tambo
    Klefbom 22yr 1yr @ 1.244M; 7yr @ 4.167M Tambo
    RNH 22yr 6yr @ 6M Tambo
    Does yak stay?

    24-26yr Lean mass development
    Hall 24yr 5yr @ 6M Tambo
    Pakarinen 24yr 1yr @ .825M MacT
    Davidson 24yr 1yr @ .585M Tambo
    Lander 24yr 2yr @ .988M Tambo #60 PK Fwd; #23 OF Fwd
    Schultz 25 1yr @ 3.9M ??
    Eberle 25yr 4yr @ 6M Tambo
    Nilsson 25yr 1yr @ 1M Nilsson PC
    Gazdic 26yr 1yr @ .800M MacT

    Dump schultz. To much cap for what he brings!
    Dump gazdic?

    Critical area of need to that kind of youth.
    27-30 Plateau veteran
    Gryba 27yr 1yr @ 1.25M PC
    Talbot 28 yr 1yr @ 1.4M I say MacT; you say PC
    Fayne 28yr 3yr @ 3.625M MacT all plateau
    Pouliot 29yr 4yr @ 4M MacT 60% of contract is Plateau
    Scrivens 1yr @ 2.3M MacT
    Klinkhammer 29yr 1 YR @ .725M MacT
    Korpikoski 29yr 2yr @ 2.5M PC
    Nikitin 29yr 1yr @ 4.5M MacT
    Sekera 29yr 6yr @ 5.5M PC 67% of contract in Decline phase
    Purcell 30yr 1yr @ 4.5M MacT
    Letestu 30yr 3yr @ 1.8M PC 67% in decline phase. #39 Pk Fwd; #41 FO Fwd
    Gryba 1.25M; Scrivens 2.3M ; Klink .725M ; Korpikoski 2.5M; Nikitin 4.5M: Purcell 4.5M gone
    Talbot will not sign!

    Mact Fayne ; Pouliot;
    PC Sekera; Letestu.

    Decline Phase: 31+ yr
    Hendricks 34yr 2yr @ 1.85M MacT #10 PK Fwd; #10 FO FWD
    Ference 36yr 2yr @ 3.25M MacT whole contract decline Phase
    Buy out Ference

    Hall-Draisatl-XXX
    XXX -RNH-Eberle
    Pouliot-Mcdavid-XXX
    Hendricks-Letestu-Lander Elite PK and FO Fwds and great Def center depth.
    Khaira – Pakarinin
    3 wingers

    Klefbom
    XXX
    Davidson
    Fayne
    Sekera
    Nurse
    XXX
    2D

    Nilsson
    XXX
    Broissoitt????

    There are 6 XXX to chase superior 27-30 yr old Players.

  135. rickithebear says:

    RexLibris:
    Eberle missed games in his rookie season because he had his appendix out.

    Definition of soft! The guy literally couldn’t stomach the NHL his first year!

    My definition of soft!

    Player who does not have the stone to go to tough areas in front of Net.

    See Tie Domi!

  136. sliderule says:

    rickithebear,

    Another player is Cogliano

    Rated soft by oilers even though he is an ironman

    Oiler !

  137. AsiaOil says:

    Well given the rest of their record I guess making the obvious choices was lucky for us. But the team was built ass-backwards as we all know. All the old-timers remember the RNH-Larsson debate and for quite a while the RNH camp looked like clear winners. But dmen take years to develop and needs change – so I guess it’s a bit of an issue. RNH is clearly a quality center and Larsson appears to be rounding into a quality RH dman. Both teams appear to have done well but there needs now seem reversed – EDM needs defense and NJD needs offense.Seems a match and below is an interesting link with some analysis of Larsson from a couple of months ago:

    http://pucksandpitchforks.com/2015/10/27/new-jersey-devils-adam-larsson-stud-defenseman/

    Bag of Pucks:

  138. RexLibris says:

    sliderule:
    rickithebear,

    Another player is Cogliano

    Rated soft by oilers even though he is an ironman

    Oiler !

    He took too many stitches when he had his mouth smashed in.

    Three would’ve probably enough, he had to get the whole cut sewn up.

    In the OBC days “emergency dentistry” was carried out on the ice with a stick and some ice-shavings and you had Sparky go and scoop up the chiclets during the intermission or fish them out of the Zamboni after the game.

  139. CrazyCoach says:

    blainer: YES they should be looking at this game as a way to make the playoffs.. I bet the players are..
    Give your head a shake coach…
    We want playoffs and you should be coaching for that..

    I think Todd Mac is being realistic here.

    He’s also trying to remind his players that a small winning streak is not an excuse to slack off for the next game or to start thinking about games in April.

    Every coach, coaches for playoffs, but there’s probably something he knows that we don’t. Perhaps he is tempering egos in the dressing room.

  140. Woodguy says:

    Broward County passes a bill to subsidize the Panthers $86Mm (!) over the next 13 years (I think it’s 13, could be wrong)

    The County owns the rink after Bettman and Hunzinga promised sunshine and roses if they built it years ago and it’s just a big drain on revenue for the County.

    I think the deal is actually better for the County than if th Panthers left….. that just speak to how awful the deal was to begin with.

    Looks like QUE needs an expansion franchise.

    Note: Karmanos owns the rink in CAR so only 5000 people showing up during football season doesn’t mean as much as most sportswriters think it means.

  141. godot10 says:

    1) Because the NHL didn’t hedge their pooled Canadian revenue last year doesn’t mean they didn’t hedge it this year. The foreign exchange markets are the deepest most liquid markets in the world. But perhaps the decision to hedge or not to hedge was left to individual clubs.

    2) Who assumes the hedging risk? This would clearly have to be part of the CBA. If hedging was not part of the CBA, then one assumes any hedging gains or losses only accrue to the individual owners and are not part of setting the cap.

    3) Davidson is arbitration eligilble. So if he is a regular D by year’s end, there is no way you get him on a contract for less than $2 million. All those defensemen listed in the post way above were not arbitration eligible. Apples and oranges.

    4) Davidson is 3 years away from UFA, so his next contract will likely be another one year deal, or a five year deal. 5 years at $2.25 million might be possible.

    5) Hopefully, the OIlers and Nilsson will be something like 3 or 4 years x $3.33 million. He hasn’t had a big payday year. So the Oilers should probably try for a bit of duration if he keeps at .920 for the rest of the year.

    6) The Oilers have to offer McDavid 8 years and ask him to fill in the dollar amount. One has to do this because one knows the offer sheet 4 years x salary max is definitely coming from somebody.

  142. Woodguy says:

    blainer,

    A coach talking about taking it “day by day” and not “looking ahead”????

    The hell you say!!

  143. godot10 says:

    Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins while McDavid and Draisaitl are on their entry level deals is just dumb, IMHO.

    One only trades a good centre away when the cap forces you to (or if a Pieterangelo type is offered up).

  144. jimmers2 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Cameron,

    miss 3 games in 3 seasons and no one bats an eye

    miss 13 games in a season and you’re injury prone

    Well, doncha know, injuries coming from being aggressive heal faster than those you get when you are a passive wimp.

    Or is it that Lucic’s injuries are real after all…

  145. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Broward County passes a bill to subsidize the Panthers $86Mm (!) over the next 13 years (I think it’s 13, could be wrong)

    The County owns the rink after Bettman and Hunzinga promised sunshine and roses if they built it years ago and it’s just a big drain on revenue for the County.

    I think the deal is actually better for the County than if th Panthers left….. that just speak to how awful the deal was to begin with.

    Looks like QUE needs an expansion franchise.

    Note: Karmanos owns the rink in CAR so only 5000 people showing up during football season doesn’t mean as much as most sportswriters think it means.

    I read about that.

    You’re opinion, are these worse deals than the one the CoE cut with Katz to get Rogers built?

    Seems to me the City gets something considerable in return with the Katz deal.

    Yet the common refrain is Edmonton did a boneheaded move that they should regret for 30 years.

    It isn’t perfect, but on the scale of “stupid arena deals”, it doesn’t really seem to compare.

  146. Pouzar says:

    Cameron: Sorry, but Anaheim can get a lot more for Fowler than a $6m winger with injury issues.

    Seriously. Go away.

  147. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy: Looks like QUE needs an expansion franchise.

    I think they have the best case for expansion. But what does the league do about the conference situation?

  148. Магия 10 says:

    blainer: Very disappointing remarks from the coach re playoffs. Not looking ahead for the San Jose game and playoff implications..

    ~ The disturbing thing in that interview is he admitted to keeping some Sharks gear. Who does he think he is? Taylor Hall’s Dad? ~

  149. Halfwise says:

    PhrankLee: I think they have the best case for expansion. But what does the league do about the conference situation?

    The league could slice things up differently, maybe a Canadian division or something equally sensible.

  150. Woodguy says:

    PhrankLee: I think they have the best case for expansion. But what does the league do about the conference situation?

    In terms of conference balance I think they may have *hoped* for FLA to re-locate to QUE (maybe $350MM relocation fee?) then SEA and LAS expands.

    Since that won’t happen I’m not sure.

    I would bet on Bettman to defer to the situation that creates the most revenue (as well he should)

  151. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris,

    You’re opinion

    I’m not an opinion.

  152. Adam Wu says:

    blainer: Well I guess that does make sense but I really didn’t like the way he talked about it.

    Absolutely agree the focus should always be about the next game and it is defiantly early in the season for playoff talk for most teams.. but I am desperate for playoff talk in December.. How long has it been for us to even say that dirty word this early.. PLAYOFFS.. there I said it !!

    But we have been saying “playoffs” EVERY year in December (and November), and we have been having playoff talk EVERY year in December (and November), as in, “we’re out of the playoffs now.” “We’re already eliminated from the playoffs.” “Playoffs are impossible now.”

    And that’s the only circumstance in which playoffs are mentioned at this time of the year! To note that you are so bad that you are already out!

    Good teams don’t mention playoffs now, because they already anticipate they’ll be in the conversation, and it needs no mention. (Unless they are playing unusually badly, and then they might say stuff like “we’d better shape up if we want to make the playoffs (again) this year!”)

    Bubble teams don’t mention playoffs at this time either, because they don’t want to be getting ahead of themselves.

    The fact that we are not talking playoffs now is a GOOD sign!

  153. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: I read about that.

    You’re opinion, are these worse deals than the one the CoE cut with Katz to get Rogers built?

    Seems to me the City gets something considerable in return with the Katz deal.

    Yet the common refrain is Edmonton did a boneheaded move that they should regret for 30 years.

    It isn’t perfect, but on the scale of “stupid arena deals”, it doesn’t really seem to compare.

    Katz did what he did to build the Rexall empire.

    Used other people’s money and agree to pay back at a nice rate with future income created by the other people’s money that they put up front.

    He’s betting on his performance with that money, but alas there are no revenue guarantees in this deal, which is my biggest issue (if future cash flows are not what is projected, who covers? Since there is no deal its the city)

    Its what many billionaires have done to become billionaires and I admire that ability. I did that on a much, much, much, much smaller scale.

    I’d have to look at the deal again, but iirc if the CRL (which just moves taxes, doesn’t create new ones but DOES create inner city density which is desirable) hit its targets its not an awful deal.

  154. John Chambers says:

    godot10:
    1) Because the NHL didn’t hedge their pooled Canadian revenue last year doesn’t mean they didn’t hedge it this year.The foreign exchange markets are the deepest most liquid markets in the world. But perhaps the decision to hedge or not to hedge was left to individual clubs.

    2) Who assumes the hedging risk?This would clearly have to be part of the CBA.If hedging was not part of the CBA, then one assumes any hedging gains or losses only accrue to the individual owners and are not part of setting the cap.

    3) Davidson is arbitration eligilble.So if he is a regular D by year’s end, there is no way you get him on a contract for less than $2 million.All those defensemen listed in the post way above were not arbitration eligible.Apples and oranges.

    4) Davidson is 3 years away from UFA, so his next contract will likely be another one year deal, or a five year deal.5 years at $2.25 million might be possible.

    5) Hopefully, the OIlers and Nilsson will be something like 3 or 4 years x $3.33 million.He hasn’t had a big payday year.So the Oilers should probably try for a bit of duration if he keeps at .920 for the rest of the year.

    6)The Oilers have to offer McDavid 8 years and ask him to fill in the dollar amount.One has to do this because one knows the offer sheet 4 years x salary max is definitely coming from somebody.

    A good comparable for Nilsson’s next contract is none other than our own Ben Scrivens.

  155. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins while McDavid and Draisaitl are on their entry level deals is just dumb, IMHO.

    One only trades a good centre away when the cap forces you to (or if a Pieterangelo type is offered up).

    Truth

  156. PhrankLee says:

    Halfwise,

    Woodguy,

    I recall Basille offered to join the Western conference with Hamilton.

    A PQ team in the west would be rough on that team.

  157. böök¡je says:

    Woodguy: Katz did what he did to build the Rexall empire.

    Used other people’s money and agree to pay back at a nice rate with future income created by the other people’s money that they put up front.

    He’s betting on his performance with that money, but alas there are no revenue guarantees in this deal, which is my biggest issue (if future cash flows are not what is projected, who covers?Since there is no deal its the city)

    Its what many billionaires have done to become billionaires and I admire that ability.I did that on a much, much, much, much smaller scale.

    I’d have to look at the deal again, but iirc if the CRL (which just moves taxes, doesn’t create new ones but DOES create inner city density which is desirable) hit its targets its not an awful deal.

    With one exception (an important one), the CRL is a meaningless shell game used to allows politicians to say “no taxes went to the development of …”.

    The exception is huge though. All new education tax in the CRL area flows to pay the cost of the initial CRL project (in this case the arena) as opposed to into provincial coffers. I once guesstimated that this meant that the province paid for about $50 million of the arena (with nary an announcement).

    Politics!

  158. Woodguy says:

    böök¡je,

    I didn’t know about the education amount.

    Assholes.

  159. böök¡je says:

    Woodguy:
    böök¡je,

    I didn’t know about the education amount.

    Assholes.

    Edmonton could have got a better deal, but pro sports leagues have the game rigged in their favor. Thus we massively subsidize millions to play and billionaires to hang out with hockey players.

    I supported the arena deal, but I probably would have supported the giant wolverine statue too. A better deal would have been nice.

  160. Stelio Kontos says:

    Halfwise,

    A canadian division would hurt, since those games are getting watched more often anyway. Best to have canadian teams playing more american teams to keep interest up.

  161. Riggy says:

    PhrankLee,

    I saw an interesting link on Twitter suggesting the possibility of an all Canadian division if Quebec City was added;

    http://thefunhl.blogspot.ca/2015/04/nhl-expansion-and-reallignment-plan.html?m=1

  162. Chachi says:

    Cameron,

    What part of I don’t think you get Fowler for Eberle did you not understand? Man, Flames fans…

  163. Quinlan says:

    Just thought I’d chime in on McLellan’s presser today. If you’re surprised by what he said (re: playoffs) – where have you been all year? It’s become a mantra of his, definitely a theme. And it’s a smart perspective, especially when one considers the mind of a young athlete, a mind which screams, “Results! Results! Results!”

    So focused are athletes, especially young athletes, on results that very often they forget completely about the massive process which precedes each and every result. There is a reason why children notoriously ask, “Are we there yet? Are we there yet?” on long (and even not-so-long road trips). In a sense, we all tend to be that way.

    TMac is being the voice of maturity, the wise old man who recognizes that in order to get somewhere you need to have a plan, that in order to build something you first need to develop your craft. Keep your head down, focus on every step along the way, and trust that – more often than not – the results will come.

    But they won’t come simply because you have a desperate desire for them to come. Getting to the playoffs isn’t simply about wanting to be there, but about wanting to be there so much that you commit to the less glamorous, every day work of doing things the right way.

    To my mind, that’s what he’s emphasizing.

  164. haters says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    No, Henrique is a must in the deal for me because of his skill set. He can be that defensive forward that covers up the warts of Yak or Slep when he comes back. Which is why this trade prolly doesn’t
    make sense from a Devils Pov, unless they really value RNH….

    I’ve seen you take a beating on this blog for the past couple weeks over RNH trade talk and just wanted to throw a deal out there that in my mind covers things nicely for both teams (we come out a bit ahead there imo) because you are 100% right, the mix of forwards needs to change and the best piece to get what we need is RNH, Eberle doesn’t have the same value, and like i said you have to give to get.

  165. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    RexLibris,

    You’re opinion

    I’m not an opinion.

    Can you prove that?

  166. Lowetide says:

    Great sequence there by Nurse against Thornton.

  167. Lowetide says:

    Khaira handled himself well there.

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