LEARNING THE TRADES

I think we will see an active Peter Chiarelli after the break, with culling the major item. There are several men returning from the IR and 5,000 left-handed defensemen in the system, those things will be on the docket. A list of ‘possible’ exits might look like this:

  • R Teddy Purcell 35gp, 8-15-23.
  • D Justin Schultz 21gp, 1-3-4.
  • D Mark Fayne 25gp, 0-1-1.
  • D Nikita Nikitin 5gp, 0-1-1.

Chiarelli won’t trade all of those defensemen, but I bet he would like to, possibly retaining salary while also finding a replacement for Bogdan Yakimov in Bakersfield.

Schultz is probably the most interesting player on the list, he is an RFA and the Oilers may have some interest in retaining him beyond this season (I think it unlikely). Nikitin and Fayne are veterans, depending on the market a team might grab one of them for insurance. Purcell is the only one of the group I would like to see retained.

Last year, I did a series of targets for ON (Habs here) and there are plenty of cool prospects in the Montreal system again. If the Oilers scouts were watching this night, I think they would have been wise to pay special attention to Michael McCarron. He isn’t coming here, folks. However, maybe Bud Holloway and a late pick can be had for Nikitin and salary retained. I promised you trades, I didn’t promise you sexy.

SEVEN OF NINE

7

One of the reasons Peter Chiarelli will probably want to deal at least one defender: This team needs to see Griffin Reinhart more in the second half of the season. At this point, he has played a dozen NHL games, suffered an injury (in Edmonton, don’t know why he missed games in Bakersfield this weekend but something happened, so it may be two injuries) and we really don’t have a feel for him yet.

If trades are not made, I think we may see the following after the deadline:

  • Andrew Ference LTIR
  • Nikita Nikitin and Mark Fayne in Bakersfield for the remainder of the year barring injury

OILERS BLUE, 2015-16 IN A BOX

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

If and when the veterans head to the AHL, the top 7D may look like this:

  • Klefbom—Sekera
  • Nurse—Schultz
  • Reinhart—Davidson
  • Gryba

I think the Oilers have to see about Reinhart, that is the task at hand for the second half of the season. They also simply must back off the minutes for Darnell Nurse—I have no idea why people are not talking about this more—and find a top pairing. I would think it obvious that Klefbom is the right man for the top pairing with Sekera, make it so Todd McLellan!

TALBOT!!!

talbot capture 1

Who was the last goalie you really liked? For me, it was Devan Dubnyk, but most would probably answer Dwayne Roloson and that makes sense. Man, I wish the Oilers of the era when they made good decisions most of the time, hope we can get back there again.

Among goalies who have started 15 or more games this season, Anders Nilsson (.910) ranks No. 25 in save percentage, Cam Talbot (.904) ranks No. 29. Amazing recovery from Talbot, hopefully this continues and we should probably start talking about the contract PC and Talbot’s agent settle on before the trade deadline (if things continue). Is it enough time, between now and the deadline, to trust the (hopefully positive) results? 15 more starts?

By the way, here are the EV SP numbers for each goalie (15 or more starts):

  • Nilsson’s .917EV SP ranks him in a tie for No. 28.
  • Talbot’s .902EV SP ranks him No. 36.

The Talbot spike is very impressive, he was so far back Red Light Racicot was giggling not so long ago.

TAYLOR HALL

Mr. Hall ranks No. 4 among all scorers in the NHL this season (the professional writers are going to need to stand on their head to keep him off the post-season All-Star team this time) and it is interesting to look at the even-strength totals of those top five scorers:

  1. Patrick Kane 36, 10-23-33
  2. Tyler Seguin 35, 15-17-32
  3. Taylor Hall 35, 12-19-31
  4. Jamie Benn 35, 11-19-30
  5. Vladimir Tarasenko 35, 15-12-27

If the Oilers get that power play figured out, and magically make the playoffs, Taylor Hall will be a strong candidate for a post-season award. I hope he gets the recognition he deserves, it was wildly unfair when the writers passed over him because of a ridiculous flaw in the voting a couple of years ago. Many have forgotten, but I have not, suspect you haven’t either.

harry1

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A quick note: Please have a safe and fun Christmas, everyone. As you know, I enjoy tipping a glass or two at Christmas, truth to tell my celebrating is already underway. I do not drink and drive, and one thing I really respect about you younger folks is that the drinking and driving among your group is far less than my generation. Keep it up! I am proud of you. Safe and happy, let’s meet back here on the 26th and rip apart the Canucks (and Flames). I will have my Christmas post tomorrow and the top 20 continues unabated.

Today at 10, the Lowdown on TSN1260. Two guests today, Darcy McLeod from Because Oilers and Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports. We will talk the hockey and some other things. Merry Christmas, it is going to be a wonderful year ahead.

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153 Responses to "LEARNING THE TRADES"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Merry Christmas LT.

    I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again.

    It’s time to stitch a C to the front of that Hall jersey. He’s paid for it in full. It’s his team, it’s his time.

  2. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    To all frequenters to this site: happy holidays, whatever you may celebrate in your culture. I know from experience that some of you may be going through a particularly difficult time right now. The holidays and end of year are always a time of reflection for me. My year has not been easy, either. Nonetheless, I hope you are able to appreciate all the good in your life at the moment be it friends or family or anything else.

    I would also like to encourage you to thank our gracious host here who allows us all a little release from our lives every day by talking about our favourite mistake–our fandom for our hockey team.

    If you can afford it, please hit that little yellow and blue button, and please make a contribution, even if small, as a way of thanking Mr. Mitchell.

    I have just done so myself.

    AND to LT himself: Thank you, Mr. Mitchell, for your tireless efforts, fine prose, and wonderful anecdotes. Thank you for creating this community. Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones.

    Go Oilers go!

  3. blackdog says:

    Merry Christmas old pal. All the best!

  4. Pajamah says:

    Merry Christmas LT, to your family, and this one here.

    And Merry Christmas to our Oilers. May their holidays bring health and clarity. Let 2016 be something special.

  5. Lucinius says:

    I’ll echo NYCoil’s sentiments regarding LT; thanks for a great place to talk about the Oilers (and the not-so-occasional other topics). You like baseball more than is healthy (my god is that a boring sport to watch), but I’ll forgive you.

    Drinking and driving; very little I abhor more. One positive of my job is I get to clamp down on this sort of thing (I collect car keys and will happily put them where they will not be found until the owner comes back the next day, or week, to beg for them back.. usually not to a lot of success). I have zero tolerance for it (drinking and driving is the height of stupidity, and as someone who lost someone to a drunk driver I don’t give a shit about the legalities of me, ah.. preventing possible drunk drivers from ever getting their keys back from me).

    Don’t drink and drive, and if you see someone who is.. do something about it.

    Other than that; happy holidays to all of you who celebrate any such thing, and a happy Friday to those (like me) who don’t.

  6. stevezie says:

    Merry Christmas and the rest of it.

    Since we’re on Christmas break, here’s a non-hockey gift that should cross a lot of demographics for this group: Glen Campbell covering Paul Westerberg (of The Replacements. But you knew that, right?)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7kw5zXVFVQ

  7. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Come January I would try to extend both Talbot and Nilsson sooner rather than later. I think the team believes in them both and I think they have been good enough now to earn extensions. Rather sign them sooner for lesser cost if possible.

    Hall should be 2nd team LW unless the hockey writers out East pick Pacioretty, which is possible. Edit- or that dastardly Johnny Gaudreau just south. He is one hell of a hockey player.

    Under the radar but if Leon puts up 80 points in 70 games, what if he puts a run together to be 2nd team C behind Seguin?! It is possible, given the top scorers are mostly wingers this year.

    What contract would you give Purcell, LT?

  8. Hall Awaits says:

    “Purcell is the only one of the group I would like to see retained.”

    If he can play at this level right up to the deadline then I would strongly consider a one year at 3-3.5 million if I’m Edmonton. I still think they trade him and this summer grab a Lucic (to expensive and declining) or Eriksson instead. Lucic I think will be over payed by Vancouver but I could see Eriksson being a nice for for Hall and Drai.

    Happy holidays to you and your family LT!

  9. Chris says:

    Hey LT and the gang, Merry Christmas!

    Here’s hoping Talbot has figured out what was ailing him.

    Here’s hoping the young guns stop shooting blanks on the PP.

    Here’s hoping that 2016 is far more kind to Oilers fans than 2015 (sans the McDavid thing).

    Here’s hoping others follow NYCOIL as I have done and click on the yellow and blue button. Best money ever spent.

    As a firefighter, father, husband and pastor, for the love of God people, please don’t drink and drive.

    Cheers.

  10. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Hall Awaits,

    That would be overly generous.

    Purcell is a secondary scorer with talent but flaws in his game, in his 30s. He is entering the phase of his career where he will be bought & sold on 1 or 2 year deals, or have to endure PTO situations. He is Lee Stempniak. He is Brad Boyes.

    If he turns down a $1.5 million 1 or 2 year deal from Edmonton he will most likely have to earn a job somewhere else at training camp. That could be a tough thing to do for a guy who lacks speed/intensity (which are the things that tend to stand out at training camp, his game is more subtle).

    It’s gotta be less that $2million, preferably a lot less. Like the guy, would retain him, but if he wants a spot on this talented roster next year he’s going to have to be cheap.

  11. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Just noticed the irony of having 5,000 left-handed defensemen to cull from and then 2 of the 3 listed above are right-handed!

    Where is “Steve Smith” with the old, “I don’t think left-handed means what you think it means” comment?

  12. stevezie says:

    What if we sign Purcell now, and then try to replace him during the summer? Then if we can’t, we still have him!

    Also, I don’t think anyone in the league is going to give Schultz 4 mil, so he’s taking a pay-cut to stay somewhere. If he wants to take that cut in Edmonton, what would you offer him? Anything? League minimum? 1 mil? 2? (I can’t see anyone except maybe Mrs. Schultz who might say more than 2). Well wishes?

  13. Oil2Oilers says:

    Merry Christmas!

    Oh and part of LT’s master plan has already happened;

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers Dec 21
    The #Oilers have placed defenceman Andrew Ference on IR.

    Word is it is a hip injury

  14. Oil2Oilers says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Just noticed the irony of having 5,000 left-handed defensemen to cull from and then 2 of the 3 listed above are right-handed!

    Where is “Steve Smith” with the old, “I don’t think left-handed means what you think it means” comment?

    Some of them may even play better if they changed hands!

  15. Washingtron says:

    Merry Christmas, happy holidays and may you all find great cheer this season!

    I don’t write all that much and I still have a small seizure when those white boxes with all the numbers in them show up in a post, but the word parts and the picture parts and the comments parts are a thrice daily visit for me.

    Thank you so much for all you do LT, I stream your radio show and laugh at you and the hilarious Lt. Eric and you all make me feel a little closer to home, which I enjoy even when Los Angeles is a warmer place to be.

    Best to you all,
    Goilers,
    Josh Dean aka Washingtron

  16. Colieo87 says:

    Merry Christmas Lt to you and your wonderful family. Did alot if ice fishing, laughs and found out my cousin is pregnant. She went for her ultrasound. Blessing identical twins. =)

  17. mit167 says:

    Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to Everyone.

    Mr Mitchell, you have mail.

  18. Магия 10 says:

    “Mr. Hall ranks No. 4 among all scorers in the NHL this season (the professional writers are going to need to stand on their head to keep him off the post-season All-Star team this time) and it is interesting to look at the even-strength totals of those top five scorers”

    Good thing the fans only get to pick 4 to the All-Star game. They have Chance #27. And the only thing keeping Johnny Derivative Nickname from Pacific Captain is John Scott (currently waived and waiting for assignment to the A), The NHL gets nothing right. Last laugh will be Max Domi being passed over by Hockey Ops because of Scott’s spot.

  19. Магия 10 says:

    Oil2Oilers: Word is it is a hip injury

    At last hipsters do some good in this world.

  20. Lowetide says:

    blackdog:
    Merry Christmas old pal. All the best!

    You too, Pat! Best of the season.

  21. oliveoilers says:

    Магия 10: At last hipsters do some good in this world.

    How much does a hipster weigh?

    An insta-gram.

  22. Lowetide says:

    Okay, now that I read everything you are all saying Merry Christmas, so blanked YOU TOO everyone. I love this day. Santa is probably already blasted.

  23. Fortinbras says:

    Hey all,

    Long time reader, but quite a rare poster.

    Just want to say happy holidays to everyone here in Lowetide atmosphere and especially to Mr. Mitchell. Appreciate all your writing (everyday at 8:31 am), and especially your timing and efficiency, which is likely only rivaled by the German Train system.

    Speaking of Germans, I finally decided after a long, 4 year struggle to go with a Draisaitl jersey. But oh so Oilers, the city is out. 3 week wait. So I have a blank jersey…again.

    What has been everyone’s favorite Oilers moment this season?
    Even though he was my goat to start the year, Purcell’s OT backhand goal stands out for me.

  24. Woogie63 says:

    I wonder if Ben Scrivens should be on that possible exit list?

    Right now Purcell is playing 1RW, as a deadline trade does he get a 3rd pick back …if so I would keep him.

    Merry Christmas to all!

  25. flyfish1168 says:

    Unfortunately for Taylor everyone also remembers Lindy Ruff calling Taylor out during the Worlds championship a few seasons ago. This has stuck in me as so unfair when Claude Giroux made so many turnovers and was never called out that tournament. Taylor will always have to be 2x as good to get any recognition from those eastern writers. JMHO

    Merry Christmas to you LT and everyone on this site. I hope our Christmas gift to each other comes late to us in the form of PO hockey.

  26. Oil2Oilers says:

    Lowetide:
    Okay, now that I read everything you are all saying Merry Christmas, so blanked YOU TOO everyone. I love this day. Santa is probably already blasted.

    I got him headed to Russia, so Vodka is probably on the menu;

    https://santatracker.google.com/?utm_source=trackerhpp#tracker

  27. dustrock says:

    Merry Christmas everyone and thanks again LT for making this such a fun and instructive place to be.

    It’s been a crazy year, including moving, having my wife just finish her sonography practicum, and now a friend and me have just put an offer to lease in and will be starting our own practice next summer. Glad for some downtime.

    This site is part of my daily routine, morning and evening like clockwork. Thanks for the fun talk and education, all.

  28. RexLibris says:

    Merry Christmas (and best wishes for any other un-noted festivities) to everyone here, contributors and lurkers both!

    Best wishes LT, and don’t think it wasn’t noticed that you didn’t do an airing of grievances this year – even in their current state this Oilers team has you in good spirits! Apparently both figuratively and literally. 😉

  29. oliveoilers says:

    RexLibris:
    Merry Christmas (and best wishes for any other un-noted festivities) to everyone here, contributors and lurkers both!

    Best wishes LT, and don’t think it wasn’t noticed that you didn’t do an airing of grievances this year – even in their current state this Oilers team has you in good spirits! Apparently both figuratively and literally.

    The Oilers a humbug, uncle! Surely you can’t mean that!

  30. GriffCity says:

    Im afraid Reinhart just is not any good at the NHL level. I winced when the draft day trade happened and im wincing now. He is a big body but his foot speed is way too slow and his physical play does not make up for it and for a big man he plays a timid game. I honestly prefer Gryba over Reinhart. Now i know Gryba makes half a dozen goofs during a game but he also makes at least the same amount of good positive plays to help off-set the mistakes. His physical game is very good and that is so desperately needed on the blueline right now. That said, Nurse likes the physical stuff too but he is still very giraffe-esque out there and will need some more size and strength before he really starts to punish guys.

    Reinhart was off loaded by the Isles and they stole two very good picks/players. I dont want to be negative before Christmas but i really dont think he has the chops to be an effective NHL’er in the way that the Oilers brass is hoping. I blame Bob Green and probbaly MacT too for getting in Chiarelli’s ear and making that trade happen because im sure they told him what a great player Reinhart was with the Oil Kings blah blah blah.

    In other news, sign Teddy P to a short term deal asap. We need him and I feel like he could play up and down the line-up. No more than 3.5 mil max. Somewhere around 2.8 per would be sweet.

    Merry Christmas Everyone !

  31. Cobbler says:

    Happy Holidays everyone!

    LT thanks for a year of wonderful reading and radio.

  32. RexLibris says:

    I have some reservations with retaining Purcell.

    This stems almost entirely from being burned previously by forwards having good seasons on contract years, so consider that bias declared.

    That being said, his career history shows two things –

    1. He is remarkably healthy, since 2010 with the Lightning he has missed 3 games. With this Oilers team, that is noteworthy.

    2. His career ppg pace is around .55, but that is dragged down significantly by his last year in TB and his first year here last season. Otherwise you are looking at a player who, once established, put up between .6 and .8 ppg in the NHL.

    So would I retain him? Yes. But with a strong caveat that the contract number be closer to $2.5 or $3 million a year for no more than two years.

    Perhaps he is our Lee Stempniak, and that is a good asset to identify and retain when needed, but I’d remain cautious about a long-term commitment. This team needs to be able to move him, either by trade or free-agency, relatively easily when the need arises.

  33. RexLibris says:

    oliveoilers: The Oilers a humbug, uncle!Surely you can’t mean that!

    Not at all, but for most fan bases, looking at a team in the bottom five of the league on Christmas Eve is not a cause for celebration.

    But given the roads we’ve traveled the last few years, this looks positively inspired.

  34. RexLibris says:

    Re: Nurse

    I think Sapp MacIntosh has been beating that drum for awhile now.

    Nurse needs a break and Klefbom/Sekera is the most obvious answer.

    That the young man doesn’t look to be struggling by eye is a testament to his ability and stubbornness in the face of the opposition, but a respite is due and once he has the options I think McLellan will make the move.

  35. Factotum says:

    A very Merry Christmas to you and yours, LT, with heartfelt thanks.

    And best regards to all Lowetiders.

  36. GCW_69 says:

    Merry Christmas all!

    Chiarelli Will trade as much dead wood as he can at the deadline, but I would bet he takes a hard run at Lucic to ride shotgun for McDavid in the summer. If so, Pouliot or Eberle will get traded to free up the necessary cap space. That will be the interesting series of moves.

  37. D says:

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year LT. Thanks for another great year of articles.

  38. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    People suggesting we pay Purcell $3million are driving me up the wall.

    Look around the league at what happens to these guys. The 30+ y.o. secondary scorer is a free throw in, he’s a parting gift. You can get them for $1million. If we want to keep him specifically, we can make it a 50% overpay and give him $1.5 million.

    If we are going to have 3 scoring lines we’re going to need 1 out of every 3 guys to be pretty cheap. Pouliot is already $4million so the other two better be under $2 million. Yak’s deal helps off set that a little.

    Recognize the market. I like Teddy, but he’s in a bad negotiating position. Good management needs to take advantage of the realities of this market. Signing Teddy cheap-or-not-at-all is step 1.

  39. LMHF#1 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    People suggesting we pay Purcell $3million are driving me up the wall.

    Look around the league at what happens to these guys.The 30+ y.o. secondary scorer is a free throw in, he’s a parting gift.You can get them for $1million.If we want to keep him specifically, we can make it a 50% overpay and give him $1.5 million.

    They’re used to the MacTavish/Tambellini way of doing things. That Purcell is somehow more magical because he’s “our guy” and not completely replaceable each off season. If he’d like to stay at market rate – fine. If he doesn’t, there’s always another one out there and now this team might have a GM who can see which one (or two) to choose.

  40. Snowman says:

    GCW_69,

    Whoever gets Lucic is going to be paying a shit tonne to a player that doesn’t even live up to his own reputation.

    Honestly might be one of the most overrated players in the entire league in my opinion.

  41. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LMHF#1,

    So I’m not alone on this island? Thank goodness.

  42. Pouzar says:

    I screamed from the rooftops that Purcell wasn’t as bad as people were making him out to be.
    Now he’s a legit candidate to be resigned. If they move Eberle ,which I think will happen, I am in favor of bringing back Teddy on a short term deal.

  43. Kitchener says:

    Season’s greetings to you all!

    If you’re sick of the songs on the radio these days, here are two links to scrub your xmas ears:
    https://rushcoil.bandcamp.com/album/8-bit-christmas
    http://www.basementclassics.com/albums/merry-xmas-greatest-hits-2008-2013/

    I agree that Pete Chiarelli will start his next round of moves in January. He’s had half a season to see what’s on the roster and there are two 1OV’s about to re-enter the lineup. The interesting wrinkle would be sending out veterans if the Oil are in a playoff spot.

  44. tcho says:

    Merry Christmas (or fill in with whatever holiday greeting you’d prefer) all!

    This site is a part of my daily routine, too. I look forward to the witty, insightful, informed conversations that regularly occur here – thanks to the many, many posters here that help brighten my days.

    Thanks most of all, of course, to Mr. Mitchell himself. You set a great tone here, LT – intelligent, warm, respectful, witty. You are a gift to Oilers fans.

  45. Kitchener says:

    Pouzar,

    His price tag would be a lot lower than 19’s.

  46. GriffCity says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    You are insane? Do you really think big body forwards who can play in the top 6 grow on trees and get 1 million dollar contracts? Please site your references for I can’t seem to recollect any myself, aside from maaaybe Ribiero (full of problems), Stempniak ( small + older) oh and maybe Brad Boyes as well( also small + older). Purcell at around 3 million is not a bad deal for the Oilers at all IMO.

    Oh just as a side note Korpikoski make 2.7 Mil with a 2.5 mil cap hit, 1.8 Mil for Letestu, 1.85 for Hendricks, and lets not forget about our players who don’t even play for the Oilers making well over 2 million dollars…But you don’t think Purcell is worth 2.5 – 3 mil?

  47. Pouzar says:

    Kitchener:
    Pouzar,

    His price tag would be a lot lower than 19’s.

    100%

  48. LMHF#1 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LMHF#1,

    So I’m not alone on this island?Thank goodness.

    I routinely debate how many forwards could and should be essentially cycled on a year-by-year basis to make sure you have value contracts and motivated players.

    It’s at least 3 and possibly as many as 5 of them.

    PTOs, Europe/KHL, value deals. It’s all out there every year. Should be taking advantage but you need strong pro scouting.

  49. Pouzar says:

    Magnus Paajarvi has impressed coach Ken Hitchcock lately.

    “The guy that’s gone unnoticed here is probably the guy that’s playing the best hockey for us right now is Paajarvi,” Hitchcock said. “Never mind the best I’ve seen him play. He looks like a heck of a hockey player in the National Hockey League right now.” The Blues bench boss said that if Paajarvi can continue to play at his current tempo and pace then “he’s going to be a valuable player for us the rest of this year.” He scored his second goal of the season Monday in a loss to Philadelphia and he assisted on Vladimir Tarasenko’s game winner against Boston on Tuesday. Paajarvi has been skating with Tarasenko and Paul Stastny.

    Source: St. Louis Post-Dispatch

  50. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    GriffCity,

    Purcell was getting bought out by the lightning before we traded for him. The rest of the league isn’t terribly interested in him based on the verbal I’ve heard from every media source I can find.

    I get that he’s having a good season, but everyone will recognize that Hall and Drai are the drivers there.

    Stempniak, Boyes, Glencross are the guys I look to from last year as examples. Secondary offensive talents in their 30s are taking the brunt of the cap crunch.

    All the Oilers need to do is offer $1 more than the next highest bidder. I’m saying that there is no way someone is going to offer Teddy P 2.99million dollars. I think we can get him for half that.

    Last summer a lot of people wanted us to throw that kind of money at Glencross. Turns out we could have had him for league minimum.

  51. doritogrande says:

    Holy crap, a Black Dog sighting. That you were able to claw yourself away from the family and, well, yourself, is a Christmas miracle all in itself.

    Christmas in Barcelona this year, it’s plus 18 and am missing the shit out of snow. Time to drown my sorrows in beautiful wine. Oh and Oilers wins, I guess those numb the pain somewhat also.

  52. Bruce McCurdy says:

    GriffCity: Im afraid Reinhart just is not any good at the NHL level. I winced when the draft day trade happened and im wincing now. He is a big body but his foot speed is way too slow and his physical play does not make up for it and for a big man he plays a timid game. …

    Reinhart was off loaded by the Isles and they stole two very good picks/players. I dont want to be negative before Christmas but i really dont think he has the chops to be an effective NHL’er in the way that the Oilers brass is hoping. I blame Bob Green and probbaly MacT too for getting in Chiarelli’s ear and making that trade happen because im sure they told him what a great player Reinhart was with the Oil Kings blah blah blah.

    With your handle I thought you’d be a Reinhart fan instead of his biggest knocker. I too saw him plenty with the Oil Kings and while that is apparently a knock on him in some quarters the team had straight up arrows the whole time he was here, especially defensively where they were #1 in the league in his last two years, as captain. In his last three years the Oil Kings were 11-0 in playoff series in which Reinhart played, and lost the one series he missed. The last two years he was given the tough match-ups against the Draisaitls and Petans of the WHL. His was a commanding presence, not all physical all the time but very capable of picking his spots and landing a booming hit. Timid? I think not.

    As for “blaming” Bob Green, how many scouting directors do you know who have the stones to give up their top two picks in a good draft year for a player that was already drafted? Green knows his defenceman, judging by the four picks he made in the back half of the draft, all of which are outperforming their draft number by an entire round or more. And he certainly knows Griffin Reinhart.

    Reinhart projects as the type of defender (shutdown D) that typically takes time — as in “years” — to develop. He’s 21 years old, 3½ years out from his draft day and the jury is way out on how good a player he might become. But it is waaaaaay too early to be writing him off.

  53. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LMHF#1,

    I’m of the opinion that you need 6 players on your team making a combined $8million. Your 4th line, a couple dmen, your third wheel wingers need to be playing for cheap. Otherwise kiss one of your better players goodbye.

  54. blainer says:

    First off .. Merry Xmas and happy holidays to all !

    As I have stated here before LT that McCarron kid is unreal. The habs have a real find there.. everybody on here is gonna know this player very soon. 6″6 230lbs with hands and is a deceptive skater.

    Folks at this pace Purcell will get approx 60 points plus.. Those players do not get PTO’s. that is just silly. Wonder how the pens would feel with Teddy putting up those numbers on Crosby’s wing right now. That one timer the other night was pure gold. He is getting a two year deal worth 3 mil per from somebody.. most likely the Pens if not us.

    The next 5 games are soooo important.. all against our division. We need Talbot to catch fire. Most of the teams in our division also have an easier schedule coming.. A 4-1 record puts us right back in it.

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Kitchener:
    Pouzar,

    His price tag would be a lot lower than 19’s.

    Pouzar: 100%

    No, his price tag would only be about 80% lower than 19’s. Don’t exaggerate!

  56. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-should-the-oilers-bring-back-philip-larsen

    Always had time for ol Phil….would love him in the Schultz PP role.

    Ha ! was reading that earlier also.

    I also liked the player and was disappointed when he was let go. He was far better than Shultz IMO.

    Even then. RT shot too .. I would like to have another look but his time is running out.

  57. GriffCity says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I’m going to disagree that Purcell is not worth more than what you are suggesting. Also, it is a very real fact that the Oilers have to pay a little more than the next highest bidder to attract players. If you could play in Florida, would you choose Edmonton for the same money? Not likely

    I see what you are trying to say about forwards in their 30’s but that certainly does not apply to all. There are more forwards in that age bracket making over 2.5 mil than there are making under 2.5 mil. If the guy is good enough then he gets the money, if he isn’t good enough then a younger, cheaper player takes his place. Edmonton does not have that luxury currently and a 2 year deal worth 5.8 mil sounds sweet to me.

  58. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Pouzar,

    And he was on waivers, what, twice? Always saw him as a possible Pisani or Dvorak-lite.

    He would have been nice to have to fill a hole in the top 9.

    Hall-Drai-Purcell
    MPS-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov

    Looks like speed to burn on every line and at least one defensively responsible player in each spot.

  59. Kris11 says:

    Merry Christmas.

    Fix the D, dang it.

    Do that, CMD comes back, and this team makes a run for the playoffs.

    Don’t and no playoffs.

  60. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    GriffCity,

    Fair enough. My favorite thing about this site is that it’s a group of passionate, opinionated people whom often manage to find ways to disagree with each other, engage in real debate, and not have it degenerate into something unbecoming of grown men and women.

    Merry Christmas everybody.

    Except Bookje. F*&k that guy.

  61. GriffCity says:

    Bruce McCurdy: With your handle I thought you’d be a Reinhart fan instead of his biggest knocker. I too saw him plenty with the Oil Kings and while that is apparently a knock on him in some quarters the team had straight up arrows the whole time he was here, especially defensively where they were #1 in the league in his last two years, as captain. In his last three years the Oil Kings were 11-0 in playoff series in which Reinhart played, and lost the one series he missed. The last two years he was given the tough match-ups against the Draisaitls and Petans of the WHL. His was a commanding presence, not all physical all the time but very capable of picking his spots and landing a booming hit. Timid? I think not.

    As for “blaming” Bob Green, how many scouting directors do you know who have the stones to give up their top two picks in a good draft year for a player that was already drafted? Green knows his defenceman, judging by the four picks he made in the back half of the draft, all of which are outperforming their draft number by an entire round or more. And he certainly knows Griffin Reinhart.

    Reinhart projects as the type of defender (shutdown D) that typically takes time — as in “years” — to develop. He’s 21 years old, 3½ years out from his draft day and the jury is way out on how good a player he might become. But it is waaaaaay too early to be writing him off.

    I would love to be wrong on this one, honestly. If he turns out to be the player he was projected to be then I will be very pleased. Based on the Isles interpretation of his progress as well as what I have seen myself, I just dont feel he will get there. Great name on the kid though 😉

    Hmm, stones…yes, quite. I suppose one could call it stones to make such a move, or foolish, I guess only time will tell. I will agree that it is too soon to write him off completely but players generally don’t get faster with age and unfortunately Reinhart is just too slow of foot. In the WHL he was a competent, effective, and controlling player I agree. Do I need to list the number of good WHL players who cannot make it in the NHL?

  62. v4ance says:

    http://www.ocregister.com/articles/ducks-697358-made-murray.html
    Murray is on one heck of a cold streak. The many moves made since last spring’s trade deadline have ranged from having no effect to being bad enough to break up a good thing he had built.

    Kevin Bieksa hasn’t come close to replacing Francois Beauchemin on defense. Carl Hagelin and Jiri Sekac were supposed to be upgrades from Emerson Etem and Devante Smith-Pelly on the wing. Hagelin and Chris Stewart were supposed to offset the loss of Matt Beleskey.

    Only Stewart and Shawn Horcoff have given the Ducks some sort of value, but they weren’t purported to be difference makers. Mike Santorelli is who he is, a depth guy to plug in here and there.

    It only gets worse when some of the calls Murray made to retool a roster that had gotten to Game 7 of the Western Conference finals – whether made out of desire or necessary reaction – have blown up in his face.

    It has to pain Murray to watch his leader Getzlaf sitting on one empty-net goal. And with that much money tied up in that many unproductive players, it makes for making any sort of major trade much more difficult.

    Affordable goalie Frederik Andersen is the Ducks’ likely best trade chip as John Gibson appears to be the man in net going forward. Vatanen is attractive as well, even though he isn’t the problem. But moving Cam Fowler as he enters his peak years for a scorer isn’t the answer.

    The dutiful Andrew Cogliano ($3 million annual average value) could garner interest. Clayton Stoner ($3.25 million) and Patrick Maroon ($2 million) won’t, not with two years left on their deals. So Murray is kind of stuck, which will test his creativity in an inactive market.

    Ducks are struggling and looking to try to improve their team with a trade or two. Hopefully Chia is pumping Nikitin and Korpse’s tires to sell them to Murray 😉

  63. stevezie says:

    I like Purcell but will admit if it’s between him and a forward who does the various things no forward on the team currently does, I’m inclined to go the other way.

    But trading Teddy this February does not guarantee Lucic, Eriksson, Ladd orwhoever you like (Gagner? Perron?) better than Teddy would come here at all and it really doesn’t guarantee they’ll come at an affordable price.

    I’d rather be scrambling to suddenly have to move Teddy than having to suddenly have replace him.

  64. Messier11edm says:

    On Reinhart….

    Jury still out on him…I think he will be a steady rock in the backend, but likely a third pairing dman. Don’t give up on him just yet.

    On Schultz….

    Time to give up on him. As the saying goes, you can teach skill, but you can’t teach will. This guy looks like an absent-minded professor at times in his own end. It’s not gonna change, now matter how loud we yell at our tv. Time to write the last chapter to this book.

    On Purcell…

    Trade him at the trade deadline…please and thank you. For once lets not fall in love with a mirage, and understand the concept of trading …BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. This guy is benefiting from Batman and Robin, and would be great piece that is looking to overpay for supplemental scoring for a playoff run. Take it and run!

  65. Snowman says:

    GriffCity: Hmm, stones…yes, quite. I suppose one could call it stones to make such a move, or foolish, I guess only time will tell. I will agree that it is too soon to write him off completely but players generally don’t get faster with age and unfortunately Reinhart is just too slow of foot. In the WHL he was a competent, effective, and controlling player I agree. Do I need to list the number of good WHL players who cannot make it in the NHL?

    Players generally get faster if they train for it. I have no idea where you have come up with the idea that Reinhart can’t get faster because he’s 21. He’s got miles of blacktop to get faster and stronger. Nobody has reached their ceiling physically in any respect at 21. Draisaitl added 3 gears this summer and he’s 20. Reinhart is 21. I see no reason why he can’t do the same.

  66. GriffCity says:

    Snowman,

    21-22 is basically peak physical condition. Sure one can get stronger etc as they get a little older but typically not faster. That is why it becomes harder and harder for aging players to maintain that level, let alone supersede it.

  67. v4ance says:

    Snowman: Players generally get faster if they train for it. I have no idea where you have come up with the idea that Reinhart can’t get faster because he’s 21. He’s got miles of blacktop to get faster and stronger. Nobody has reached their ceiling physically in any respect at 21. Draisaitl added 3 gears this summer and he’s 20. Reinhart is 21. I see no reason why he can’t do the same.

    Exhibit #1 for a young defenceman who improved his skating from “ponderous” to very good is Zdeno Chara.

    His 21yr old season with the Isles, I saw him in his second game against the Oilers. His turning radius and pivots were at best “18 wheeler” and he went from that to being an All Star. It took years and lots of work on his part but he grinded it out and drastically improved.

  68. GriffCity says:

    v4ance,

    Chara? lol. sure but he is 11 feet tall, of course he benefited from top level experience. I dont know how much faster he became but he certainly did become more graceful. Can you tell me one other defenceman who became faster as he got older? One more name and I will shut my yap

  69. Water Fire says:

    Merry Christmas LT and all of you fine folks. As someone who enjoys a lot of input pretty much constantly this place is an oasis. Thank you LT and tribe.

    I am glad for Teddy P having a great season. Given his track record and who he is playing with, I think the chance of regretting a resigning are north of 90%. He would be a great fit for a grinder team lacking skill and offense.

    On the Oilers he is able to play with the talent but doesn’t bring what they all need which is a boardman. To my way of thinking you want the lesser player more in the trenches not feasting off better players doing the hard work.
    Strong players and fast players open space for line mates. In the top 6 one line will likely be built around Hall and one around Connor. The others should be chosen on what they do to help them be the best they can be.
    Peace, Joy and safety to you all!

  70. Rube Foster says:

    Teddy should be buying Leon a very, very nice Christmas present. I would be very interested to see what Teddy’s points per game with the Oilers are with & without young Leon.

    In my opinion it’s Leon that has unlocked the scoring in Mr. Purcell and we should be keanly aware of that fact. I am very pleased and thankful for Purcell’s emergence as scoring contributor, but lets not forget his play and results prior to finding lodgeing with Leon.

    Count me as one who believes that Teddy’s best value to the Oiler’s would come to us through a deadline trade to a playoff contender desperate for some scoring. If the right trade partner can’t be found at the deadline, and given his results and success with Hall and Drai, Mr. Purcell should be offered a short term contract – repeat the pump & dump cycle for the 2016/17 season.

  71. blainer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    GriffCity,

    Fair enough.My favorite thing about this site is that it’s a group of passionate, opinionated people whom often manage to find ways to disagree with each other, engage in real debate, and not have it degenerate into something unbecoming of grown men and women.

    Merry Christmas everybody.

    Except Bookje.F*&k that guy.

    One of the craziest experiences I have ever had was taking the public transit to a Cubs game.

    Now those were fan debates at epic proportions. Including the bus driver. Man those fans are passionate… I do feel for them though.

    I strongly recommend not wearing anything but cubs colors when using their transit system as well.

  72. Snowman says:

    GriffCity,
    First study I just googled (peer reviewed by UBC) indicated that NHL players speed peaks in the mid 20s on average. 21 is quite a ways from mid twenties. I’m sure if I read the second study it would find a similar result. I’m just going to have to agree to disagree with you.

    Anyone who rights anybody off at 21 I’m bound to disagree with.

  73. v4ance says:

    GriffCity:
    v4ance,

    Chara? lol. sure but he is 11 feet tall, of course he benefited from top level experience. I dont know how much faster he became but he certainly did become more graceful.Can you tell me one other defenceman who became faster as he got older? One more name and I will shut my yap

    Mark Giordano *spits*

  74. admiralmark says:

    Messier11edm:
    On Reinhart….

    Jury still out on him…I think he will be a steady rock in the backend, but likely a third pairing dman. Don’t give up on him just yet.

    On Schultz….

    Time to give up on him.As the saying goes, you can teach skill, but you can’t teach will. This guy looks like an absent-minded professor at times in his own end.It’s not gonna change, now matter how loud we yell at our tv. Time to write the last chapter to this book.

    On Purcell…

    Trade him at the trade deadline…please and thank you.For once lets not fall in love with a mirage, and understand the concept of trading …BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.This guy is benefiting from Batman and Robin, and would be great piece that is looking to overpay for supplemental scoring for a playoff run.Take it and run!

    All 3 points 100% agree. My own personal assessment of Chia will rely on exactly how he handles Purcell and Schultz. Mostly Schultz. He’s has enough time to balance the whisperings from MacT/Howson with what he actually sees on the ice. Time to act on the more reliable information.

  75. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Rube Foster:

    In my opinion it’s Leon that has unlocked the scoring in Mr. Purcell and we should be keanly aware of that fact. I am very pleased and thankful for Purcell’s emergence as scoring contributor, but lets not forget his play and results prior to finding lodgeing with Leon.

    You sure it’s not Teddy who has unlocked the scoring in Mr. Draisaitl?

    I’m kidding but only sort of. Purcell had previous success as a complementary scorer with St.Louis & Stamkos. Cherry linemates again, obviously, but not everyone can play with high-end skill and hold their own.

  76. GriffCity says:

    Snowman,

    Well I did say earlier that I hadn’t written him off completely. Just based on what I have seen and the impression I got from the Islanders organization. I also said I would love to be wrong about this, as I would love the Oilers to have big, strong, competent defencemen. Hey, I have been wrong before, but i’ve also been right. My gut tells me that the juice aint worth the squeeze. Time will certainly tell.

  77. Rube Foster says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Pouzar,

    And he was on waivers, what, twice? Always saw him as a possible Pisani or Dvorak-lite.

    He would have been nice to have to fill a hole in the top 9.

    Hall-Drai-Purcell
    MPS-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov

    Looks like speed to burn on every line and at least one defensively responsible player in each spot.

    YES, I’m drinking the Pouzar Kool-Aid this morning. A big YES to Fast Phil Larsen. He could make a perfect Norm McIver in Reinhart’s quest to develop into Dave Manson (sans the tough stuff). I always liked Fast Phil’s game when he had his cup of coffee with our boys. He’s a little undersized but he had a lot of “try” by my eye, and if I recall his “fancies” weren’t too bad in the context of the group he was playing with.

    Also, count me in as a guy who still thinks claiming Matt Fraser off of waivers mere hours before we could have claimed our guy Magnus was a colossal blunder. 2014/15 was a year of so many poor management decisions, and the non-claim of Magnus really stands out as regrettable in my books.

    The modern game is all about speed folks and guys like Larsen & Ultra Magnus are nitro-burning funny cars.

    Oh… by the way, the Merriest of Christmas to all of you and an enormous thanks to LT for your tireless work and for creating this “Internet Oasis” and remarkable community of wisemen & charlatans.

  78. Snowman says:

    GriffCity,

    Agreed time will tell. We both are hoping for the same thing and we’re allowed to disagree respectfully if we so choose. (I believe that was negotiated under the new Lowetide CBA).

  79. magisterrex says:

    Holiday Wishes to all.

    The Oilers having more than H.O.P.E. in December is a wonderful feeling.

    Bring on 2016!

  80. blainer says:

    GriffCity:
    Im afraid Reinhart just is not any good at the NHL level. I winced when the draft day trade happened and im wincing now. He is a big body but his foot speed is way too slowand his physical play does not make up for it and for a big man he plays a timid game. I honestly prefer Gryba over Reinhart. Now i know Gryba makes half a dozen goofs during a game but he also makes at least the same amount of good positive plays to help off-set the mistakes. His physical game is very good and that is so desperately needed on the blueline right now. That said, Nurse likes the physical stuff too but he is still very giraffe-esque out there and will need some more size and strength before he really starts to punish guys.

    Reinhart was off loaded by the Isles and they stole two very good picks/players. I dont want to be negative before Christmas but i really dont think he has the chops to be an effective NHL’er in the way that the Oilers brass is hoping. I blame Bob Green and probbaly MacT too for getting in Chiarelli’s ear and making that trade happen because im sure they told him what a great player Reinhart was with the Oil Kings blah blah blah.

    In other news, sign Teddy P to a short term deal asap. We need him and I feel like he could play up and down the line-up. No more than 3.5 mil max. Somewhere around 2.8 per would be sweet.

    Merry Christmas Everyone !

    Dan Cleary was on his last chance Texaco in the summer of 05 I think. he ended up training with Chelios that summer in LA.

    At the time he said he worked hard on his leg training to try and get faster.. He said that was his biggest weakness. IMO his biggest weakness was between his ears .. but behind every good man there is a strong woman. and his case is no different..

    He worked his ass off that summer and got a PTO from the wings . A crazy good turn around and good story. He was 25 years old then and came back with increased speed and confidence.

    To write Reinhart off this early is foolish. The problem at this point is we don’t have any info. Is he injured or was he scratched. Let’s just hope he is not pouting down there or that trade is in trouble.

    If he takes the correct attitude and works his ass off he’ll be fine. He should get in touch with Drai’s trainer though.

  81. v4ance says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LMHF#1,

    So I’m not alone on this island?Thank goodness.

    I’m with you guys as well.

    The NHL GMs have been slower than other sports to adapt to a salary capped world. In the CFL and the NFL, you see the 5-10 elite guys making 30% of the cap and the rest of the roster making closer to league minimum. Last year was the first year that NHL GMs started using PTOs for vets and this year a lot more started doing it as well.

    The market has changed from even 3 years ago. The salary cap is even tighter than ever before and most teams don’t have the room to bid for many of the UFAs. Anyone older than 30 who was a top 6 to top 9 option is now finding out that if they aren’t at the top of the UFA list, they’ll be fighting for $1 million PTOs now. It’s just the market getting more efficient and squeezing out the middle tier salaries to pay for the elite.

    In these market conditions, I hope Chia sees that it’s not out of line to offer Purcell $1.75 million/yr and if he doesn’t take it, look for a vet who will take those terms to rip it up on Hall/Drai’s wing. Again, the market has changed and we WILL get players willing to play at bargain rates with the Oilers looking like contenders soon. Call it the McDavid effect…

  82. rickithebear says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": He is one hell of a hockey player.

    top 20 LW PPG – comp faced
    Benn (26) #2 1.31 – #187 fwd comp -.016
    Hall (24) #5 1.11 – #10 Fwd comp .099 top 10 comp
    Gaudreau (22) #6 1.09 – #117 fwd
    Hoffman (26) #10 1.03 – #34 comp .051
    D. Sedin (35) #13 1.00 – #231 comp -.030
    ————————————————
    Ovechkin (30) #17 .94 – #78 comp .026
    Cammalleri (33) #22 .91 – #94 comp .018
    Steen (31) #27 .89 – #48 comp .044 listed as C/LW
    Panarin (24) #30 .86 – #198 comp -.019
    Eriksson (30) #32 .85 – #68 comp .032
    ———————————————
    Landeskog (23) #35 .84 – #130 comp .005
    Parise (31) #42 .80 – #234 comp -.032
    Zetterburg (35) #44 .79 – #60 comp .037
    Marchand (27) #52 .77 – #62 comp .036
    Sharp (33) #52 .77 – #168 comp -.011 listed as LW/RW
    ————————————
    Pacioretty (27) #59 .75 – #71 comp .030
    Hartnell (33) #61 .74 – #281 comp -.058 listed as LW/RW
    JVR (26) #67 .73 – #280 comp -.057
    Vanek (31) #67 .73 – #284 comp -.060
    Boedker (26) #80 .70 – #216 comp -.025

    Now seperate the top 20 list into comp
    upper first comp
    Hall (24) #5 1.11 – #10 Fwd comp .099 top 10 comp

    mid 1st comp
    Hoffman (26) #10 1.03 – #34 comp .051
    Steen (31) #27 .89 – #48 comp .044 listed as C/LW

    lower 1st comp
    Zetterburg (35) #44 .79 – #60 comp .037
    Marchand (27) #52 .77 – #62 comp .036
    Eriksson (30) #32 .85 – #68 comp .032
    Pacioretty (27) #59 .75 – #71 comp .030
    Ovechkin (30) #17 .94 – #78 comp .026

    upper 2nd comp
    Cammalleri (33) #22 .91 – #94 comp .018
    Gaudreau (22) #6 1.09 – #117 fwd

    mid 2nd comp
    Landeskog (23) #35 .84 – #130 comp .005

    BOT 2nd comp
    Sharp (33) #52 .77 – #168 comp -.011 listed as LW/RW

    upper 3rd comp
    Benn (26) #2 1.31 – #187 fwd comp -.016
    Panarin (24) #30 .86 – #198 comp -.019

    Mid 3rd comp
    D. Sedin (35) #13 1.00 – #231 comp -.030
    Parise (31) #42 .80 – #234 comp -.032
    Boedker (26) #80 .70 – #216 comp -.025

    Bottom 3rd comp
    none

    Upper 4th comp
    JVR (26) #67 .73 – #280 comp -.057
    Hartnell (33) #61 .74 – #281 comp -.058 listed as LW/RW
    Vanek (31) #67 .73 – #284 comp -.060

    who is doing what against whom!
    Hall is in a class by himself.

    Ericksson would look good next to Mcdavid!

  83. Bruce McCurdy says:

    blainer:
    To write Reinhart off this early is foolish. The problem at this point is we don’t have any info. Is he injured or was he scratched.Let’s just hope he is not pouting down there or that trade is in trouble.

    If he takes the correct attitude and works his ass off he’ll be fine. He should get in touch with Drai’s trainer though.

    I’d be shocked if he was scratched and downright stunned if he was “pouting” or had any sort of attitude problem. He’s a smart kid, grew up in a hockey family, and has carried himself like a pro since at least age 16.

    I will admit that injuries are a concern with this player, he does seem to collect the little knocks and “maintenance” will likely be an ongoing issue.

  84. Halfwise says:

    rickithebear,

    Thank you for adding a line or two of Conclusions and Recommendation below your lines of Data and Analysis.

  85. Really? says:

    Purcell is currently on a decent scoring run while playing with Hall and Draisaitl. The problem is that his style of play is totally contrary to Chiarelli’s stated preference … heavy on the stick. With the talented forwards the Oilers currently have, there are only so many roster spots where they an insert heavy. From my perspective, Purcell’s #1RW spot is the real plum.

    For these reasons, I don’t believe the Oilers can afford to block the position with Purcell. I believe they have to actively seek out that ‘heavy’ player that Chiarellirefers to.

  86. SwedishPoster says:

    God Jul fellow Lowetidians. Quiet christmas over in Stockholm. My fiance is working so it’s just me for a bit more. Been watching 42, the Jackie Robinson story. I pretty much never cry, not at funerals, births, weddings but man sport movies gets me for some reason. Pathetic. When Pee Wee Reese puts his arm around Jackie in front of a booing Cinncinatti crowd the tears just drowned my eyes.

    Anyway, Christmas Eve is when we eat christmas dinner and give out presents so I wanted to greet you all before all the commotion. See you before next game, don’t trade away the whole roster while I’m gone.

  87. Clay says:

    rickithebear: top 20 LWPPG – comp faced

    upper 3rd comp
    Benn (26) #2 1.31 – #187 fwd comp-.016
    Panarin (24) #30 .86 – #198 comp -.019

    I don’t have the time or energy to get into this with you Ricki, but I would question how the quality of competition is measured in your analysis. Sure, Ruff may be able to run Benn against the dregs at home, but how is it possible he is facing third line / bottom pairing comp overall this year? Are you suggesting coaches around the league haven’t heard how good he is?

    I’m not calling you out – just saying that Benn facing the oppositions’ third best options doesn’t pass the sniff test.

    Merry Christmas!

    edit – I do see now you said “forward comp”, but still…

  88. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You sure it’s not Teddy who has unlocked the scoring in Mr. Draisaitl?

    I’m kidding but only sort of. Purcell had previous success as a complementary scorer with St.Louis & Stamkos. Cherry linemates again, obviously, but not everyone can play with high-end skill and hold their own.

    So you’re saying re-signing Teddy Purcell will be the key to the Oilers signing Stamkos on a discount deal this summer and running Draisaitl on the other wing with Hall-Hopkins-Eberle and Pylon-McDavid-Yakupov as the “complementary scoring” lines?

    I like the way I put words in your mouth, Bruce!

  89. GCW_69 says:

    Snowman:
    GCW_69,

    Whoever gets Lucic is going to be paying a shit tonne to a player that doesn’t even live up to his own reputation.

    Honestly might be one of the most overrated players in the entire league in my opinion.

    He is on pace for over 50 points, and currently is running over 62% on CF%. He had had a positive CorsiRel every year, including this one, so it’s not just team effects. In what way is he not living up to his own reputation?

  90. rickithebear says:

    top 20 centers PPG
    Seguin 1.31
    Draisatl 1.20
    Pavelski 1.06
    Backstrom 1.03
    Bergeron 1.03
    H. sedin .94
    Krejci .94
    Mcdavid .92
    Malkin .91
    kuznetsov .91
    Koivu .88
    O’rielly .85
    Carter .85
    Mckinnon .83
    Little .82
    Giroux .82
    Duschene .80
    Bozak .79
    Tavares .78
    Brassard .78

    Now broken down into comp;

    Upper 1st comp
    Little (28) #4 comp .82 PPG
    O’rielly (24) #17 comp .85
    Giroux (27) #29 comp .82

    Mid 1st comp
    Draisatl (20) #37 comp 1.20 PPG
    Bergeron (30) #41 comp .97 PPG
    Pavelski (31) #57 comp 1.06

    Lower 1st comp
    Mckinnon (20) #65 .83 PPG
    Koivu (32) #74 comp .88 PPG

    upper 2nd comp
    Backstrom (27) #93 comp 1.03
    Mcdavid (18) #97 comp .92 PPG
    Kuznetsov(23) #113 comp .91 PPG
    Duschene (24) #119 comp .80 PPG

    Mid 2nd comp
    Krejci (29) #138 comp .94 PPG

    Lower 2nd comp
    None

    Upper 3rd comp
    Seguin (23) #184 comp 1.31 PPG

    Mid 3rd comp
    Malkin (29) #232 comp .91 PPG

    Bottom 3rd comp
    J. Carter (30) #247 comp .85 PPG
    Brassard (28) #257 comp .78 PPG

    Upper 4th comp
    H. Sedin (35) #272 comp .94 PPG
    Bozak (29) #282 comp .79 PPG

    Mid 4th comp
    Tavares (25) #304 comp .78 PPG

    RNH is #35 C .68 PPG Faces #11 comp in game.
    Crosby #33 C .69 PPG faces #14 comp in game
    Kopitar #46 C .61 PPG facing #207 comp in game
    Toews #50 C .58 PPG faces #7 comp in game

    Oh the day all 3 together in a game. Jan ???
    RNH (22) top 15 comp in game .68 PPG
    Draisatl (20) mid 1st top #37 comp 1.20 PPG
    Mcdavid (18) upper 2nd comp #97 .92 PPG

  91. böök¡je says:

    I know I’m a day late, but what really drives me crazy is people who don’t know how to use a two Lane drive-through. Idiots! (Note – I am sitting in a drive through behind one now)

  92. Bag of Pucks says:

    Merry Christmas all.

    Here’s hoping we get our biggest wish this year.

    Playoffs.

    Playoffs?

    Yes, playoffs!

  93. RexLibris says:

    Not sure if anyone here has seen the ESPN Weber for RNH + Eberle (or Draisaitl) piece that is going around twitter today.

    It is the season of mirth!

    My favourite part is when they ask the question “would it be worth it for Poile to make that deal?”

    Reminded me of the “would Eberle for Luongo be fair value for the Canucks” commentary that was going around the media a few years back.

  94. Water Fire says:

    GCW_69: He is on pace for over 50 points, and currently is running over 62% on CF%.He had had a positive CorsiRel every year, including this one, so it’s not just team effects.In what way is he not living up to his own reputation?

    I have little use for attitudes like his but would he ever make a difference for the elite guys IF he played the right (read intimidating) way if they got him.

    Imagine the distraction trying to defend him and McDavid at the same time with a shooter portside, and the pleasure of his aggression if you did anything untoward.

  95. speeds says:

    RexLibris,

    I think Scott Burnside, the guy that wrote the article, is a regular guest on LT’s show. LT, might be an interesting interview next time you have him on your show!

  96. dessert1111 says:

    I always look forward to holiday breaks because most of my year is so busy, but because I make a point not to do much for them, I end up getting so bored! But that means I can share my thoughts on today’s discussions:

    Purcell is not a bruiser but he looks faster and I wouldn’t characterize him as weak on the puck. I would have him back at 1×2.5 or 2×2 at most i think, but depends on the market. I’m not super worried about him walking for nothing if they want to wait it out.

    I like Philip Larsen as a back up plan for Schultz’ spot. Should cost 30% of Schultz salary and I don’t think there will be a huge drop off, and he has a better slap shot.

    I have been banging the get Pajaarvi back drum, but mostly because I have his jersey. Him or Cogliano would be good fits on the 3rd line, as far as former Oilers go. Speed and some versatility.

    I am hoping 2 defensemen get traded (Gryba, Schultz, Nikitin). I would like to see guys like Musil get a coffee at some point to help make a decision on them, unless we’re in a playoff race in March, which we might be.

    I was not a Tambellini fan but one thing I think he did well that is actually huge and never gets talked about is managing the salaries of drafted players. Setting the internal top salary at 6 mill, and matching the 3 deals for the young stars, makes it harder for anyone else to demand more and also I think promotes a sense of equality amongst those players. Even though Hall is presently easily the best value, I don’t think those are overpayments for anyone. All 3 of those guys wear As, too, which is probably smart by present day management.

    Having Taylor Hall at 6 mill is huge, especially in this cap environment, and puts the team in good shape going forward. The only bad deals on the books after this year imo are Ference and Korp, with only Korp having a chance at sticking around.

  97. kev says:

    All the BEST of the holiday season to you and yours LT, to all the wonderful members here. And may that include a start to an incredible run in the New Year.

  98. Rube Foster says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You sure it’s not Teddy who has unlocked the scoring in Mr. Draisaitl?

    I’m kidding but only sort of. Purcell had previous success as a complementary scorer with St.Louis & Stamkos. Cherry linemates again, obviously, but not everyone can play with high-end skill and hold their own.

    Bruce, I don’t disagree with your “Chicken or the Egg” counterpoint regarding Teddy and the landing spot he’s found with Hall & Drai. Your point about Purcell having success in Tampa with elite scorers is bang on.

    It just seems to me that we’ve run Teddy with every conceivable combination of Nuge, Hall, Eberle, Yakupov & Pou without the results we’ve seen with Leon & Hall. That my friend is a lot of chickens to burn through before we got to enjoy a healthy breakfast.

    It might be helpful to look at Purcell’s fancies with & without Hall and compare them to the fancies of Purcell’s numbers with the 2015 Leon to see who is floating the boat – if that even really matters.

    I guess the resign Purcell question comes back to whether you believe a “Lee Stempniak” type player could have comparable success with Hall & Drai? If the answer to that question is a yes to the Stempniaks of the world then a pump & dump of Purcell becomes a strategy of good asset management. Granted the concept of good asset management is something that we Oiler fans have grown a bit foreign to.

    Bruce, if I may, permit me to me you a question. Jon Willis’s article on Phil Larson has me hopeful. I’ve always felt that our defence unit could benefit from a Norm Maciver type of player. Larsen already has 125 NHL games within his development curve and given that he appears to have taken a few more steps in his development in the KHL, do you think he could become Norm Maciver?

  99. admiralmark says:

    RexLibris,

    speeds:
    RexLibris,

    I think Scott Burnside, the guy that wrote the article, is a regular guest on LT’s show.LT, might be an interesting interview next time you have him on your show!

    Yup. Another great line is that Weber is at a very manageable Cap hit of $7.857 Mill. for the next 4 years! No mention of the same Cap hit for the 6 years on top of that.

    I mean really? RNH + Drasaitl for 30 year old Weber. Yah k.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/40429/ramblings-should-the-predators-trade-shea-weber

  100. Evilas says:

    Merry Christmas Everyone!

    Thank you Mr. Mitchell for this place, it is my favourite place on the Ol’ Al Gore.

    I know it can be a lonely, stressful or challenging time of year, but remember it is ONLY temporary and things DO get better!

    2015 started out as a very tough year personally with my long-term relationship ending last Dec and being laid off in Feb, but I have been able to spend more time with my adult children than I have in about 10 yrs. So there is always a silver lining.

    Even though the money is tight now, I am getting better at budgeting and finding value/deals and I am about to embark on a 2 week adventure in China and will visit my girlfriend’s hometown next week, so I have rebounded nicely.

    Thank you Stevezie for the Glen Campbell link. He was one of my father’s favourites and I love how he and his family are together through his Alzheimers struggles and are with him in his band on his final World Tour.

    Regarding the Oilers – Subtractions: all of Schultz, Nikitin, Fayne, Ference and Korpikosky need to be purged and that won’t be easy. I anticipate Fayne and Korpse will be sent away in a package deal, as it will likely be the only way to move them.

    Additions: I think Hamonic will cost us Davidson, I can’t see Chia parting with Nurse or Klefbom.

    Trades – Eberle will likely be moved, could Chia use Ebs, along with Schultz and Korpikosky for Stamkos + Callahan (with some $’s retained if possible) + Ohlund’s contract (1 year remaining)

    RNH for Jones? I have tried to sort this one out and I don’t see how the money would work for Nashville, ideally I would add Fayne to a deal like this, but I don’t see what else Edmonton would want back other than picks and prospects and I don’t so much in their prospects pool that has appeal.

    UFA Targets: In keeping with Chia’s heavy hockey philosophy: Byfuglien, Backes (the RNH replacement) and Lucic. I am not 100% sold on Lucic and it would be an overpay, but if he could be had for 5 x $5 I would think about it. I would prefer Ericsson, Chia has links to both, so perhaps one will be had.

    That would also mean that the 4th line would have to be made of value contracts, so there couldn’t be room for Hendricks or Letestu, but there would be takers for them at the trade deadline.

    So here is my Unicorn 2016-17 line-up proposal****:

    1. Hall (6) Stamkos (8.5) Draisaitl (3.4*) = 17.9 (Stamkos on a front-loaded 5 year deal)
    2. Eriksson (5.25) CMD (3.77*) Yakupov (2.5) = 11.52 (Eriksson on 4 year deal)
    3. Pouliot (4) Backes(6) Callahan (5.8 – 2= 3.8) = 13.8 (Backes on a 4 year deal)
    4. Pakarinen (.818) Lander (.988) Slepyshev (.925) = 2.73

    1. Klefbom (4.17) Byfuglien (7) = 11.17 (Byfuglien on a 5 year deal)
    2. Sekera (5.5) Hamonic (3.86) = 9.36
    3. Nurse (.863) Jones (2.5) (Jones on a 3yr deal sign with Nash before the trade to avoid an offer sheet)
    Reinhart (.863) Ference buy-out (1.6) = 3.9-1.7 = 5.83

    Talbot (2.75) (Talbot on a 3 year deal)
    Nilsson (2) = 4.75 (Nilsson on a 2 year deal)

    **** The salaries don’t work, I realize, plus this is not real, but it is nice to fantasize, isn’t it? I realize you need a lot of value contracts and even this 4th line is over-priced. Davidson is a much-needed contract if this team is looking for high-priced free agents. Anyway I dared to dream, here is my dream, but trash it if you must, lol.

  101. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    rickithebear,

    HI ricki. Merry Christmas to you and your family. I agree with you that Hall is great. Same for Draisaitl. I hope both get 2nd all star team nods at the end of the year.

    Let’s be honest, though, your data aside, the members of the media who vote on postseason awards would not pick Hall over Benn or Draisaitl over Seguin.

    The question is if they’d pick Hall over Gaudreau or Pacioretty, etc. I would hope so but I’m not so sure.

  102. AsiaOil says:

    Agree Bruce. The kid is Alzner 2.0 stylistically and right down to the draft number in a weak year. These guys take longer to squeeze out the mistakes from their game – but once gone – they are black holes where opposition offense goes to die. Does he need to get faster – sure – and he knows it and will deal with it. Nurse is playing in EDM because he’s a more rounded player and better prospect. You think you get Nurse for a mid-first and a second? GR would have gone about #16 if he was drafted in 2015 and the 2nd rounder paid for development.

    Bruce McCurdy: I’d be shocked if he was scratched and downright stunned if he was “pouting” or had any sort of attitude problem. He’s a smart kid, grew up in a hockey family, and has carried himself like a pro since at least age 16.

    I will admit that injuries are a concern with this player, he does seem to collect the little knocks and “maintenance” will likely be an ongoing issue.

  103. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    All my family in England this Christmas. I’m in the desert in Arizona having some bubbles and steak on my own. So you’re all my family for today and tomorrow. Happy holidays to you all, once again.

    P.S. if any of you are going to the Jan 12 game in Glendale I hope to see you there.

  104. fifthcartel says:

    I’m looking at how other centers did through there draft +1-5 seasons because of this whole “RNH is struggling!” thing going on, and there are a lot of players who put up better numbers earlier, but a lot of really good players had lesser numbers than RNH.

    There are some really interesting things that I need to double check, but I’m pretty sure RNH has the 3rd best points per game of centers in their draft + 1 season in the NHL, behind Stastny and Crosby.

    There are other comparable players like O’Reilly, Stepan, Little, and I don’t think any were the center that played against the oppositions best player/center as early as RNH.

    O’Reilly had Duchene, Stastny and played LW. Little had Todd White and Peverley on the team with hi and Stepan had Richards, Dubisnky, Anisimov and even Brassard now.

    The centers on the Oilers while RNH has been here:

    Sam Gagner
    Shawn Horcoff
    Anton Lander
    Leon Draisaitl
    Marc Arcobello
    Boyd Gordon
    Eric Belanger
    Jerred Smithson
    Will Acton
    Derek Roy (old)
    Mark Letestu
    Connor McDavid

    I don’t think any center has been brought in with a worse supporting cast. RNH had Horcoff for 1.5 seasons (injured for a good chunk of the shortened season), someone who really shouldn’t be playing center (Gagner) and a bunch of rookies/depth players.

    It’s a crime there hasn’t been a veteran center to help RNH take some of the toughs, instead it’s just been a constant rotation of rookies and Gagner/Arcobello.

  105. rickithebear says:

    Clay: I don’t have the time or energy to get into this with you Ricki, but I would question how the quality of competition is measured in your analysis.Sure, Ruff may be able to run Benn against the dregs at home, but how is it possible he is facing third line / bottom pairing comp overall this year?Are you suggesting coaches around the league haven’t heard how good he is?

    I’m not calling you out – just saying that Benn facing the oppositions’ third best options doesn’t pass the sniff test.

    Merry Christmas!

    edit – I do see now you said “forward comp”, but still…

    Start with:
    1. score ability of competition.
    2. quality of schedule to this point.
    these are the 2 large factors.

    Individuals on here have not thought of or looked into the huge comp affect of start of season schedule affect. it ballances as the season extends.

    Small sample size affect for a season look.
    But completely acurate to the quality they have played to this point.

    You will see a large collection of oiler with high comp rank!

    we have played 35 games
    if you look at top 11 teams by games relative to even.
    DAL +19 25 ROW 2/3gm 1W; 1L
    WSH +19 23 ROW 2/2gm 2L
    STL +10 20 ROW 2/3gm 2L
    LAK +9 18 ROW 2/5gm 2L
    MIN +9 18 ROW 1/3gm 1L
    BOS +9 17 ROW 2/2gm 2W
    NYR +8 19 ROW 2/2gm 1W 1L
    CHI +8 19 ROW 3/3gm 2l 1 OTL
    NYI +8 16 ROW 0/2gm
    MTL +7 19 ROW 1/2gm 1W
    DET +7 16 ROW 2/2gm 1W 1OTL
    we have played 19/29 games 6W- 11L – 2 OTL (4-2-1 in last 7)
    66% of the top of schedule.
    19/35 54% our curretn season

    Next best 7:
    FLD +7 14 ROW 0/2gm
    NSH +6 15 ROW 1/3gm 1L
    OTT +5 14 ROW 0/2gm
    NJD +4 15 ROW 1/2gm 1W
    PHI +3 14 ROW 1/2gm 1W
    SJS +2 16 ROW 1/5gm 1W
    PIT +2 15 ROW 2/2gm 1W 1L
    6/16 37.5% 4W-2L

    25/35 71.5% against top 3/5th of the league.

    Our schedule has allowed us to see all 3 of our centers in upper comp play.

    I wonder what will happen to benn and Seguins comp and PPG results as they hammer thru the central schedule?

  106. AsiaOil says:

    As for the goalies and defense. I think you start talking bridge contract with Talbot’s agent and try get something done by the end of January. Two years somewhere around $5 million total would be fair. Honestly if he wants more then trade him and let him fire his agent if he lets him go UFA when the cap issues next summer could cost him a million or two. Same length for Nilsson but he’s RFA so about $3 million. That would bring the goalies back for about $4 million a year total cap – very affordable and let the two fight it out for top dog status over the next two years.

    On defense – yeah can’t wait to flush the extras and hangers on. Ference is a clear buyout (no one is taking that contract) and hopefully we can trade Fayne back east or package him in a bigger deal. Fire Shultz into the sun for whatever you can get for him along with Niki. RNH and Drai for Weber never happens – but RNH and Reinhart could. Quick question – how many Olympic team, RH dmen with big shots exist? You won’t need many fingers. The list is Weber, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Subban. How many are available for that package? May be one – might be zero – and only Pietrangelo has a slightly lower cap hit than Weber. We would be incredibly fortunate to get Weber and we actually have what NASH might need to make a deal – a top line center and a young dman. Drai or Nurse is not part of that package – but RNH and GR sure could be IMHO.

  107. Bank Shot says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’m looking at how other centers did through there draft +1-5 seasons because of this whole “RNH is struggling!” thing going on, and there are a lot of players who put up better numbers earlier, but a lot of really good players had lesser numbers than RNH.

    One thing to take into consideration when comparing RNH to other players is opportunity provided them.

    I frequently am seeing guys like Datsyuk, Pavelski, and Sedin thrown out as examples of guys that didn’t break out until later in their careers.

    The big difference between them and RNH is that they were all held back by superior depth and didn’t get a chance to show what they were capable of offensively right off the bat. They started playing less EV and PP minutes than RNH.

    RNH has been given loads of EV and PP minutes right from the start in a role playing with two high scoring wingers in Hall and Eberle.

    He’s in his 5th NHL season now. He’s basically shown what he is offensively IMO.

    Is there still potential for RNH to break out and find a new level? Sure I guess, but I wouldn’t say there is a high probability. The number of guys that break out after 5 years in the NHL is pretty low compared to the number that progress over 3-4 years to their relative offensive peak.

    On the other hand you’ve got Weber who has the same career high in points as RNH. It’s a no brainer that you’d make that swap isn’t it?

  108. admiralmark says:

    AsiaOil,

    I do agree with what you are saying. The question ultimately to me however is how much of a negative draw is the last 5 years of Webers deal? 7.9 Mill for his 35yr-40yr age period is pretty horrendous. However his 30yr-35 yr time period(and contract) is exactly what the Dr ordered for this Oiler team.

    Depending on what GM you talk to i’m sure the degree of importance(negativity) given to the tail end of his contract will vary. And most assuredly there are plenty GM’s that will not blink an eye to make a deal for him(especially in a win now team build). Are we in that win now window? I’d say McDavid adds an undeniable urgency. And even though Nurse/McDavid/Draisaitl are all <21 I think we can all say this team should be thinking win now. Mostly because Nurse/Drai/McDavid are already major contributors despite age. And damn how good would it be to have Weber helping Nurse along here?!

    If Webers deal was for 5 more years and the Deal was RNH+GH. I'd take it. The extra 5 has me firmly sitting on the fence. But maybe i'm too concerned with the tail of that contract? RNH+Eberle or RNH+DRAi is asinine however.

  109. sliderule says:

    It’s too funny listening to all the Reinhart can’t skate talk

    Remember last year when the same talk was there on Leon.

    When he won the oiler speed at their skills competition it died down and now they are saying it’s caused he worked hard all summer.Those that watched him pull away from people while carrying the puck in the playoffs know it was alway there.

    I saw Reinhart get beat on a pinch ,turn and catch Malkin so you can’t tell me that he can’t skate.

    If it wasn’t for the oiler log jam with bad defence contracts he would be playing here.

  110. Rube Foster says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    NYCOIL,

    Merry Christmas friend. Arizona is a wonderful place to be at this time of year. Steak & bubbly and a desert sunset sounds like a fabulous Christmas Eve!

  111. StevieG_8 says:

    GriffCity:
    Im afraid Reinhart just is not any good at the NHL level. I winced when the draft day trade happened and im wincing now. He is a big body but his foot speed is way too slowand his physical play does not make up for it and for a big man he plays a timid game. I honestly prefer Gryba over Reinhart. Now i know Gryba makes half a dozen goofs during a game but he also makes at least the same amount of good positive plays to help off-set the mistakes. His physical game is very good and that is so desperately needed on the blueline right now. That said, Nurse likes the physical stuff too but he is still very giraffe-esque out there and will need some more size and strength before he really starts to punish guys.

    Reinhart was off loaded by the Isles and they stole two very good picks/players. I dont want to be negative before Christmas but i really dont think he has the chops to be an effective NHL’er in the way that the Oilers brass is hoping. I blame Bob Green and probbaly MacT too for getting in Chiarelli’s ear and making that trade happen because im sure they told him what a great player Reinhart was with the Oil Kings blah blah blah.

    In other news, sign Teddy P to a short term deal asap. We need him and I feel like he could play up and down the line-up. No more than 3.5 mil max. Somewhere around 2.8 per would be sweet.

    Merry Christmas Everyone !

    Man, I’m the total opposite. I love Griff’s game. We seem to want to see players contributing right away but he needs time. I can see that he plays a quiet/simple game and I do believe that when Drai, McD and Nurse get’s the big money, he can give the defensive stability with a discount (due to maybe less offense/ flashiness to his game). I think I heard from the minors is that their aim is to have him hard to play against so I’m hopeful they accomplish that.

    For asset management, I want a pick for Teddy. Once healthy, I want to give others more playing time. My projected lines would be:

    Hall-RNH-Leon
    Pou-McD-Ebs
    Yak-Lander-Pak
    Hendo-Letestu-Korpi
    Gazdic

    I love how TMac keeps Gazdic around. while the NHL tries to limit fighting, the goons will continue their cheap shots. Gazdic, I think, helps keep the game settled. I remember at a senators game highlights when 3 top players in their team were intentionally hit imo by a fourth liner. I’m glad TMac values this player despite limitations (I do think he made hime more useful by screening, protecting the puck in the o-zone). Though the contributions are still minimal I can see TMac appreciating that side of the game.

  112. Bank Shot says:

    admiralmark:
    AsiaOil,

    I do agree with what you are saying. The question ultimately to me however is how much of a negative draw is the last 5 years of Webers deal? 7.9 Mill for his 35yr-40yr age period is pretty horrendous. However his 30yr-35 yr time period(and contract) is exactly what the Dr ordered for this Oiler team.

    The tail end of Weber’s contract would not be a hugely limiting factor for the Oilers IMO.

    Weber’s cap recapture penalties would be absorbed mostly by Nashville because they have received the majority of the benefit from his frontloaded contract. If the Oilers traded Weber at 35 or 36 they would only owe $2.5 and $0.6 millions respectively. If they keep him beyond that, then there would be no recapture penalty for them.

    Weber’s actual salary drops to $3 million at 37 years of age, so if he starts backsliding hard around 35-36 the Oilers would be able to trade him fairly easily within a couple of seasons to a team that wants to meet the cap minimum with less salary payout. He does not have a no trade clause so there isn’t a worry there.

    That’s not to say there is zero risk in acquiring the contract. There always is in any contract, but it appears to me that the fear of Weber’s contract is very out of line with what the actual downside risk is.

  113. speeds says:

    Bank Shot:

    That’s not to say there is zero risk in acquiring the contract. There always is in any contract, but it appears to me that the fear of Weber’s contract is very out of line with what the actual downside risk is.

    It’s one of the factors in evaluation, but not the only one – we’re not talking about whether EDM should claim him on waivers, there’s also the cost of whatever you’d have to give up to get him.

  114. EternalFrost says:

    I’d like to see a defenseman or two get moved so we can see Musil get an audition with the big club in the new year. I’m curious to see how he’s progressed from his last stint, and whether he has a potential future with the big club as an inexpensive #5-7 defender. Always liked his smart, simple play, just wish he had an extra gear and a right handed stick.

  115. Bruce McCurdy says:

    SwedishPoster:
    God Jul fellow Lowetidians.

    Shouldn’t that be “Gord Jul”?

    Gord Jul to you, too, SwedishPoster. You are one of my faves around here, which is quite a compliment when I stop to think about it.

  116. Centre of attention says:

    Bank Shot: One thing to take into consideration when comparing RNH to other players is opportunity provided them.

    I frequently am seeing guys like Datsyuk, Pavelski, and Sedin thrown out as examples of guys that didn’t break out until later in their careers.

    The big difference between them and RNH is that they were all held back by superior depth and didn’t get a chance to show what they were capable of offensively right off the bat. They started playing less EV and PP minutes than RNH.

    RNH has been given loads of EV and PP minutes right from the start in a role playing with two high scoring wingers in Hall and Eberle.

    He’s in his 5th NHL season now. He’s basically shown what he is offensively IMO.

    Is there still potential for RNH to break out and find a new level? Sure I guess, but I wouldn’t say there is a high probability. The number of guys that break out after 5 years in the NHL is pretty low compared to the number that progress over 3-4 years to their relative offensive peak.

    On the other hand you’ve got Weber who has the same career high in points as RNH. It’s a no brainer that you’d make that swap isn’t it?

    This season is not even finished, RNH could break out this year once he is re-united with Hall + Drai.

    I’m with LT, there may be a time in the future when a RNH trade makes sense, but this year it does not make sense at all. Especially in-season.

    My 2 cents.

  117. Centre of attention says:

    Derek Roy is playing in the Spengler cup for team Canada, good for him.

  118. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Rube Foster:

    Bruce, if I may, permit me tome you a question. Jon Willis’s article on Phil Larson has me hopeful. I’ve always felt that our defence unit could benefit from a Norm Maciver type of player.Larsen already has 125 NHL games within his development curve and given that he appears to have taken a few more steps in his development in the KHL, do you think he could become Norm Maciver?

    That would be awesome. I really, Really liked Norm Maciver, he was the perfect partner for Dave Manson which was no mean feat. Larsen has more chaos in his game — OK, “way more” chaos in his game — but he has some similar attributes as Maciver in that he is mobile, has a good first pass, and a nice vision of the ice, at least offensively. Larsen has the better shot of the two.

    Larsen really has taken a step forward this year if boxcars are our guide, he has the exact smae 6-19-25 in 37 GP that it took him 56 games to reach last year. Then there’s that +/- which has surged from -11 to +22. Granted that’s with a new team which is +17 overall compared to his former club that was -42 last year. Still, +22 on a +17 team is pretty impressive; even acknowledging the limitations of the metric that is not easily done.

  119. Ice Sage says:

    Deck the Hall with bows from LT…

    all I got, still shopping 😉

    Best of the Season to all,
    Brighter Days are ahead

  120. Bruce McCurdy says:

    admiralmark:
    RexLibris,

    Yup. Another great line is that Weber is at a very manageable Cap hit of $7.857 Mill. for the next 4 years! No mention of the same Cap hit for the 6 years on top of that.

    I mean really? RNH + Drasaitl for 30 year old Weber. Yah k.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/40429/ramblings-should-the-predators-trade-shea-weber

    Big difference between the next 4 seasons and the next 10 seasons. That’s a bit of a gaffe, Mr. Burnside.

    I cannot envision a single scenario where the Oilers would give up TWO of their THREE top young pivots to fill another need in the line-up. That’s just batshit crazy. Or maybe just batshit lazy — let’s just toss a few names out there without giving it even a moment’s critical thought.

  121. square_wheels says:

    Bank Shot,

    Now that I see how Clarke’s bat shit crazy contract actually plays out, I’m an even bigger fan of acquiring him. The issue is I don’t think they trade him, at least not this year when they’ve got a healthy Rinne and seem to be competing for a playoff spot.

    Still think we wait to see how this 2016 cap plays out, teams who run into RFA issues might be malleable and I’d rather work from a position of strength with cap space.

  122. square_wheels says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    And here I was researching Goligoski, trying to determine if there was some sort of mirage behind his minutes and point totals (being on the ice in Dallas seems to give competent D regular pts).

    Larsen has tremendous wheels, far superior to Schultz, maybe he’s acquired the “calm” Dmen get from the 200 pro games ?

    Good bet, far better than the 25M we’d have to pay Goligoski or the 50M Buff will get !

  123. Ryan says:

    Great Scott!

    My dishwasher is leaking on Christmas Eve.

    Just awesome.

  124. square_wheels says:

    Ryan,

    Merry Xmas to you, go drop $1500 on a Boxing Day sale – Miele or Bosch.

    Or get the silicone out and spend the $1500 on bikes and tattoos like I would ?

  125. bendelson says:

    Best of the season to you all.

  126. BONVIE says:

    sliderule:
    It’s too funny listening to all the Reinhart can’t skate talk

    Remember last year when the same talk was there on Leon.

    When he won the oiler speed at their skills competition it died down and now they are saying it’s caused he worked hard all summer.Those that watched him pull away from people while carrying the puck in the playoffs know it was alway there.

    I saw Reinhart get beat on a pinch ,turn and catch Malkin so you can’t tell me that he can’t skate.

    If it wasn’t for the oiler log jam with bad defence contracts he would be playing here.

    Totally agree I see it the same way as you, I think some people aren’t seeing this demotion as a development thing and a temporary numbers game, but rather a chance to jump all over a huge part of our future Defense in Rheinhart. It reminds me of a post I seen that made me laugh doing the same thing to Draisatel “the real deal” just after he was drafted because he was infatuated with Bennett kind of the way some have stars in their eyes for Barzal.

    Poster’s name removed

    As I get older I say things that I wouldn’t as a kid. Why go for a Euro, when taking a Canadian is so much safer, especially at the #3 slot…. Drashitty has for sure highest bust potential in top 5. Why gamble: Reisin, Rita, Mikhnov, Niinimaki, MPS: why do the Oilers think that because we once drafted Kurri in the 4rth round, we have to outsmart everyone else. From a risk management perspective, wouldn’t you rather take the next in a long line of Canadian born played elite hockey all their life in the most developed hockey nation in the world, or gamble that Drashitty somehow breaks all the rules, and becomes the first German-born Centre in the history of the NHL to play for 10+ years, having had only 2 years of elite hockey. I know which odds I’d take. The potential upside doesn’t warrant the downside. Maybe Drashitty is better then Bennett, maybe he is worse. Bennett though is probably 95% to play 500 games, save injuries. I’d say Leon is 15% chance to blow up good…I’d rather take the 10,000th Canadian to play in the NHL @ #3, then hope that Leon becomes the what 25th German (and the best one ever). Bennett is the responsible pick @ 3, Drashitty the cavalier #3 pick…And I like Leon: think he could be a fine player. I just know that Bennett is a lock… I just came up with that nickname, because if my 15% is right: I own that nick! God bless the Oil: smarter then everyone else…The Raptors this year, when the took the Brazilian @ 20, that’s different. No impact players have been drafted @ 20 in the NBA: so go for it. At 3 though: you want to minimize the downside.

  127. Bruce McCurdy says:

    If I’m Poile the price in assets for Weber is (even) higher just because of the structure of his contract. Either that or they’ll want salary retained by their trading partner on the major contract coming back.

    At the end of this season Nashville will have paid over half the $110 MM value in just 4 years, $56 MM down, just $54 MM to go for 10 more years. So that is a significant factor in real cash invested by the team which is a different equation than the cap hit that we usually apply. They are almost $25 MM ahead of the curve.

    Moreover, Nashville would retain all of that cap recapture risk. I’m guessing they’ve reached the point where they’d rather just hang on to the guy and enjoy the “value years” of that pact.

    A real poison pill from Ed Snider there.

  128. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Rube Foster,

    Cheers. A balmy 20C here. But weird being on my own for this holiday but it fits the narrative from the past 15 months so all good. Thank you and a very merry to you, sir.

  129. square_wheels says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    That deal was gross, I’m actually torn as to how to feel about it – bad for Nashville because as a small market team they got saddled with an egregious interpretation of the cap contract, or good because Snider and Co still have a shitty D , and are having to bury some of the leagues worst contracts.

    Whenever Ference’s contract tastes bad I think of Lecalvier’s. What a bunch of assholes.

  130. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Best wishes to all the regular and irregulars in Lowetide’s Lounge.

    As for gifts from the Oilers, I have the first two days of Christmas all figured out. A win over the Flames and a win over the Canucks would be sweet.

  131. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    The rest of the hockey world doesn’t think much of the Oilers’ players’ values. They are so far off base, I don’t know what to say other than to tell you it’s not worth stressing over.

    Nuge doesn’t get you Jones and evidently Draisaitl may or may not get you Seversson.

    So I say leave it be and enjoy some eggnog. A hat tip to you, sir. Merry Christmas!

  132. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    That deal was gross, I’m actually torn as to how to feel about it – bad for Nashville because as a small market team they got saddled with an egregious interpretation the cap contract, or good because Snider and Co still have a shitty D , and are having to bury some of the leagues worst contracts.

    Whenever Ference’s contract tastes bad I think of Lecalvier’s. What a bunch of assholes.

    Andrew Macdonald? Philly’s salty tears over McDavid taste good. That Neuvirth, though. Damn.

  133. oliveoilers says:

    Happy holidays, whatever the deuce you believe in!

  134. Магия 10 says:

    BONVIE: Poster’s name removed

    Preserved for posteriors.
    June 27, 2014 at 7:42 pm

  135. Bruce McCurdy says:

    square_wheels:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    That deal was gross, I’m actually torn as to how to feel about it – bad for Nashville because as a small market team they got saddled with an egregious interpretation the cap contract, or good because Snider and Co still have a shitty D , and are having to bury some of the leagues worst contracts.

    Whenever Ference’s contract tastes bad I think of Lecalvier’s. What a bunch of assholes.

    Yes that deal was gross, Snider really put the screws to a business partner, with a deal that might cripple them if they matched or cripple them if they didn’t match. I wrote a post that day ripping Ed Snider and the horse he rode in on.

    The hockey gords responded with Andrew MacDonald, signed by the Flyers to one of the worst contracts in NHL history that will be a boat anchor on Philly’s cap structure for the foreseeable future. This after they dodged a major bullet in screwing up the Pronger extension (they misinterpreted the over-35 clause in effect at the time), and used an amnesty buyout to rid themselves of the Bryzgalov gaffe. The MacDonald contract is going to be a pain in their ass until at least 2020 and longer if they buy him out. Breaks my heart, it really does(n’t).

  136. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Macdonald as well ( working from the iPad I was too lazy to go through the repeated logins when I’d have to look him up). Pronger’s last deal was some serious fuckery as well. I’m all for testing the limits of nearly everything, but how they continually slip out while Uncle Lou gets punished, tells me everything I need to know about Bettman and Co.

    I’ve been very fascinated recently with PED’s in pro sports, curious if the NHL clamps down on them or is only concerned with the apparent cocaine issue ?

  137. Bruce McCurdy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    The rest of the hockey world doesn’t think much of the Oilers’ players’ values.They are so far off base, I don’t know what to say other than to tell you it’s not worth stressing over.

    Nuge doesn’t get you Jones and evidently Draisaitl may or may not get you Seversson.

    So I say leave it be and enjoy some eggnog. A hat tip to you, sir. Merry Christmas!

    Funny you should mention that, I just finished a nice tall glass of Bailey’s and egg nog, and now I’m going to have another!

  138. Магия 10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Best wishes to all the regular and irregulars in Lowetide’s Lounge

    I always figure it’s his garage out back. Nice of the fellows who pitch in to keep it heated in winter. Before he heads in for dinner Merry Christmas and to all a good night.

  139. square_wheels says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Bailey’s AND Eggnog ? Wowzers, that’s some serious sweet drinkage.

  140. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    This is my second Christmas completely solo. Same as last year, trekking thru the Rockies on a snowboarding trip with no pre plans other than tonight and tomorrow night in Golden BC. Last year was tough, doing my best to stay away from family, this year I looked forward to it and am loving my trip so far!!

    Cheers NYC!! And Happy Holidays!!!

  141. oliveoilers says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Funny you should mention that, I just finished a nice tall glass of Bailey’s and egg nog, and now I’m going to have another!

    LOL, the needle on Bruce’s Give-a-Fuck-o-meter just buried itself at zero!

    Happy xmas, Bruce, have another one after that one for me!

  142. oliveoilers says:

    square_wheels:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Bailey’s AND Eggnog ? Wowzers, that’s some serious sweet drinkage.

    Wife’s been pounding the Appleton’s 12yr reserve (brought in Jamaica) and egg-nog. I may or may not get lucky/shit beaten out of me.

  143. jm363561 says:

    Christmas Day already here in the Philippines. No snow ….. Again!

    Best wishes to all ot Lowetide and my thanks to LT for having created and managing such a great site.

    My Christmas wishes, I hope Anton Lander becomes the player I know he can be; Griffen Reinhart becomes the player I think he can be; Brandon Davidson’s upward trajectory remains super nova; and one of the last two learns to shoot right.

  144. square_wheels says:

    oliveoilers,

    I’d cross my fingers and pray to the Gords asking for both !

    We were just having a conversation about how different liquor makes people behave.

    Rum, you’re likely to be ok.

    If it was Silk Tassel, lock yourself in the bathroom and hope she passes out.

  145. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Pouzar,

    And he was on waivers, what, twice? Always saw him as a possible Pisani or Dvorak-lite.

    He would have been nice to have to fill a hole in the top 9.

    Hall-Drai-Purcell
    MPS-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov

    Looks like speed to burn on every line and at least one defensively responsible player in each spot.

    Yup.

    But we traded for Korpse

    *shakes head*

  146. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    No, his price tag would only be about 80% lower than 19’s. Don’t exaggerate!

    hee hee

  147. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Dan Cleary was on his last chance Texaco in the summer of 05 I think. he ended up training with Chelios that summer in LA.

    At the time he said he worked hard on his leg training to try and get faster.. He said that was his biggest weakness. IMO his biggest weakness was between his ears .. but behind every good man there is a strong woman. and his case is no different..

    He worked his ass offthat summer and got a PTO from the wings . Acrazy good turn around and good story. He was 25 years old then and came back with increased speed and confidence.

    To write Reinhart off this early is foolish. The problem at this point is we don’t have any info. Is he injured or was he scratched.Let’s just hope he is not pouting down there or that trade is in trouble.

    If he takes the correct attitude and works his ass off he’ll be fine. He should get in touch with Drai’s trainer though.

    Damn enigmatic Newfies!

  148. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    All my family in England this Christmas. I’m in the desert in Arizona having some bubbles and steak on my own. So you’re all my family for today and tomorrow. Happy holidays to you all, once again.

    P.S. if any of you are going to the Jan 12 game in Glendale I hope to see you there.

    Actually that sounds quite nice to me. Love the season but its always sooo busy.

    Wish I was there.. Went to palm springs for Xmas a couple of years ago and really enjoyed it.

    Enjoy the holidays..

    Oh well.. have to get back pouring more drinks..

    Cheers !!

  149. blainer says:

    Pouzar: (

    Yup.. lol.. Thank gord for good women to keep us in line..

    Cheers Pouzar and Merry Xmas !!

  150. jake70 says:

    Merry Christmas/happy season to all the posters and readers and to the blogmaster himself. Special shout out to those who normally celebrate this time with family/friends but find themselves solo for whatever reason – been there, done that a few times for work etc. have a drink and take care.

  151. Bank Shot says:

    speeds: It’s one of the factors in evaluation, but not the only one –we’re not talking about whether EDM should claim him on waivers, there’s also the cost of whatever you’d have to give up to get him.

    Well Weber is one of the very best defensemen in the game so you won’t get him for free. I suspect RNH isn’t enough to interest Poile but I’m baffled that Oilers fans wouldn’t be all over it.

    As I see it the Oilers basically have a 5 year window to keep the core together before they become ridiculously top heavy at forward.

    Eberle will want a raise in 3 years.
    Hall will get a big raise in 4.
    McDavid will probably be 10×8.
    Draisaitl will want 7 if he keeps scoring.
    RNH will be up in 5

    What’s going to be left to flesh out the rest of the team st that point?

    The Oilers will need to convert some of that salary to defense and goaltending. Might as well use the trade chips now when they have years left on their deals. Eberle or RNH with 1-2 years left on their deals get less valuable in trade. Less than they are worth now.

    Might as well casH some assets if you can get the best player in the deal as well as fill a giant positional hole.

    A team with McDavid and Weber is getting the Oilers into the playoffs and increases the odds that the Oilers can land those vet free agents that every year attempt to sign on with a winner rather than chase the most dollars.

    The Oilers need to assemble the best collection of talent in the NHL to win a cup. The longer they wait, the more difficult that task will be. I think that’s well worth sacrificing some of the distant future.

    And merry Christmas everyone. 🙂

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