(IF YOU LOVE SOMEONE) SET THEM FREE

With the trade deadline just a few (well, seven) short weeks away, I imagine Peter Chiarelli is already making overtures on some RFAs and UFAs on his roster. There is also a considerable amount of wait and see on the menu as well. Let’s have a look at Edmonton’s free agents and what might happen.

  1. R Teddy Purcell. On pace for 50 points this season (Perron had 19 points in 38 games when MacT traded him) and I would think the veteran has a great deal of value. If Chiarelli deals him, there are several interesting candidates to step up (McLellan might run Eberle, Yakupov, Hendricks, Pakarinen RH side) and the team could re-visit signing him in the summer. Perron fetched Klinkhammer and a first-round pick in the deep 2015 draft, suspect Purcell gets you less (second-round pick?) and I would try to sign him for something in the three’s. You?
  2. D Justin Schultz (RFA). Puck-moving defenders have great value but Schultz isn’t delivering much if you look at the boxcars and the numbers inside. If the Oilers were trying to reduce his value and then sign him on the cheap, this would be a pretty good strategy. I do not think that is what’s happening. Justin Schultz, in the words of Craig MacTavish, needs a second opinion. All we could ask is 50 games to see if McLellan could unlock him, and despite recent games (I liked his games with Nurse) it isn’t enough. They walk him, and they should. That is my guess.
  3. G Cam Talbot. I think we are getting close to the time where Chiarelli should extend a multi-year offer. As Sunil Agnihotri mentioned on the Lowdown this morning, the more he strings together fine performances, the more expensive it gets. I would run him for the month of January, and then sign him if things are going well. Three years? I think Woodguy mentioned that as being the best case, let’s go with that for now.
  4. D Eric Gryba. The one thing this season has informed me? If Gryba isn’t back next season, ”a” Gryba is likely to be on that third pairing. Hell, the LAK traded for Luke Schenn today, these guys still have value. I think he can defend and he is clearly big. He might be back, I would trade him at the deadline.
  5. G Anders Nilsson (RFA). I have been impressed with him, and getting him signed shouldn’t be difficult. I would sign him as the NHL backup and if Brossoit pushes him out, then a trade may be available. Like this player.
  6. R Iiro Pakarinen (RFA). I like this player, the only question is offense and on this team a winger could score 15 easily in a complementary role (said he). Pakarinen is an aggressive winger, I felt he would fit into the McLellan plan and it turns out to be true. Should be able to get him in on a one-way deal for under $1 million. Fair?
  7. R Rob Klinkhammer. The thing is, I am not really certain of him. He has good speed, hits people, and is a game rooster, but in over 540 minutes with Edmonton he has two goals. I would prefer a little more offense.
  8. L Luke Gazdic (RFA). He doesn’t fight much and apparently the hit counts are not where they should be, but for me this is the best hockey he will ever play. I would walk him in a heartbeat, but the Edmonton Oilers are the Edmonton Oilers.
  9. D Brad Hunt. I don’t think the Oilers need to retain him, but I guess some of that has to do with what they do with the other blue at the NHL/AHL level. My guess is Oesterle/Laleggia have it covered in Bakersfield, and that Chiarelli will be bringing in a bona fide gun from the outside this summer.
  10. D Brandon Davidson (RFA). I would sign this guy with extreme prejudice. Davidson makes pennies this season, would he accept a multi-year deal that still represents good value for the team? Hell boys I would ask the question. Don’t Pisani this, PC!

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182 Responses to "(IF YOU LOVE SOMEONE) SET THEM FREE"

  1. GCW_69 says:

    For all those that having been giving Chiarelli a pass becusee hockey trades don’t happen in season, clearly today’s Jones trade proves this not to be true.

    Get to fucking work Chiarelli! Your best chance at an right side guy to play with Nurse for the next decade just passed you by.

  2. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Luke Gazdic (RFA). He doesn’t fight much and apparently the hit counts are not where they should be, but for me this is the best hockey he will ever play. I would walk him in a heartbeat, but the Edmonton Oilers are the Edmonton Oilers.

    Perhaps you saw my tweet about hit counts when I noted that his replacement Klinkhammer had as many hits (2) in his first SHIFT back in the line-up as Gazdic had had in the previous five GAMES. I recognize that hit counts are unreliable and that they are ambiguous as hell, but if a guy like Gazdic doesn’t get noticed by a minor official for throwing his weight around — and he’s had 1 or 0 hits in his last 8 games — then what else is he doing out there? Sure as hell isn’t scoring goals or playing stellar defence. Over that same span his boxcars are 0-0-0, -3, 2 PiM. Pretty sure that -3 consists of 0 for, 3 against in just over 50 minutes TOI.

    While I agree with your point that his game has improved, it is still marginal at best, and what exactly is the upside of having him in the line-up? At least Klinkhammer will get in on the forecheck and soften up opposing D-men.

  3. Bank Shot says:

    GCW_69:
    For all those that having been giving Chiarelli a pass becusee hockey trades don’t happen in season, clearly today’s Jones trade proves this not to be true.

    Get to fucking work Chiarelli!Your best chance at an right side guy to play with Nurse for the next decade just passed you by.

    I also see this as a missed opportunity. RNH for Nurse would have solved a lot of this team’s problems IMO.

  4. Water Fire says:

    GCW_69:
    For all those that having been giving Chiarelli a pass becusee hockey trades don’t happen in season, clearly today’s Jones trade proves this not to be true.

    Get to fucking work Chiarelli!Your best chance at an right side guy to play with Nurse for the next decade just passed you by.

    Who are you trading for Jones? To me CBJ is taking a risk here. Right now they have given up a fair bit of value for potential.

  5. GCW_69 says:

    Nuge would be the one I think.

    Yes, CBJ is taking some risk, but if they get the guy who in 12-24 months is anchoring their top pair, they win the trade hands down.

    I was hoping for a Nuge and Schultz/Fayne for Jones and Wilson.

    Water Fire: Who are you trading for Jones? To me CBJ is taking a risk here. Right now they have given up a fair bit of value for potential.

  6. CrazyCoach says:

    GCW_69: Who are you trading for Jones? To me CBJ is taking a risk here. Right now they have given up a fair bit of value for potential.

    I agree. CBJ is taking a risk on Jones. The potential is there and maybe CBJ thinks he is being buried under the the pairing of Webber & Josi, but that is a gamble.

  7. CrazyCoach says:

    Oh, and Happy New Year to LT and all the posters here.

    (Yes, I am 6 days past the event, but life is catching up to me)

  8. Soup Fascist says:

    Bank Shot: I also see this as a missed opportunity. RNH for Nurse would have solved a lot of this team’s problems IMO.

    So if that trade “would have solved a lot of this team’s problems” can I assume you see Jones as a first pairing defenseman right now?

    Even if I agree with this point (which I don’t) your 1-2 centres are now (sans Nuge) 20 and 18 years old respectively and Mark Letestu is your #3. That is NOT a sure fire playoff bound team NEXT year, IMO.

    Best case you solved one problem and created another. Worst case you have weakened this team and ensured another couple of years of no playoffs waiting for Jones to grow into his role. This team needs a bona fide 1st pairing RHD – preferably without sacrificing a very young but experienced 2-way centre.

  9. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Oh, and Happy New Year to LT and all the posters here.

    (Yes, I am 6 days past the event, but life is catching up to me)

    You too, Sir!

  10. CrazyCoach says:

    To paraphrase Vincent Vega, That's a pretty godamn good beer! I don't know if it's worth $9.50 but it's pretty good! pic.twitter.com/fbzlZ2bNUo— McCrazyCoach (@crazycoach21) January 3, 2016

    Unfortunately, this was the highlight of my night!

  11. Younger Oil says:

    Let the crazy trade proposals commence!

    I’ll start with RNH, Schultz, and a 2nd to CBJ for Jenner and Murray!

    *Drinks heavily*

  12. fifthcartel says:

    Anyone else getting worried these good defensemen are being traded and the Oilers are left with significant holes?

  13. One-Timer says:

    GCW_69:
    For all those that having been giving Chiarelli a pass becusee hockey trades don’t happen in season, clearly today’s Jones trade proves this not to be true.

    Get to fucking work Chiarelli!Your best chance at an right side guy to play with Nurse for the next decade just passed you by.

    Relax, we got the “good” Jones. I can feel it.

    / end of bro vs. bro analysis

  14. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire: Who are you trading for Jones? To me CBJ is taking a risk here. Right now they have given up a fair bit of value for potential.

    This. Curious, GCW, who you would have traded to get Jones. Would you have traded RNH+ what? Because Johansen is worth more than RNH.

    I think the Preds are looking like big winners.

    Very few people here even thought Jones was worth Nuge. I pointed out most of the rest of the hockey world thought the opposite: that outside of Edmonton most thought Jones was worth more than Nuge. Whether they were right or not, PoIle got a bigger, higher scoring 1C than Nuge for the as yet unproven Jones.

    I can’t really blame Chiarelli for not offering Nuge+ something else to get this done.

  15. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Anyone else getting worried these good defensemen are being traded and the Oilers are left with significant holes?

    Nope! Oilers didn’t have a center to spare.

  16. Woogie63 says:

    If we can get Harmonic for a winger, or Yandle as an UFA, they both improve our defense.

  17. Soup Fascist says:

    @BWildeCTV ” I can confirm from a strong source the Habs are aggressively pursuing Drouin ….”

    I suppose we can file that under ‘no shit, Sherlock” as the Habs offence is at times non-existent. The question is what do they have that Tampa would want?

  18. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    They couldn’t even spare a square???

  19. Kmart99 says:

    RNH is a year younger than Johansen.
    He is a great penalty killers.
    Gets the toughest matchups.
    Johansen’s contract is up right away and he will cost more than 6M.
    Nuge is locked up until 2021.
    Both players are having similar offensive seasons this year.

    Yes Johansen is a better point producer. But there are other things to consider.

    I would have offered Nuge and taken my chances. Nuge or Johansen is a toss up IMO.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Lowetide,

    They couldn’t even spare a square???

    Nope. Didn’t have a square to spare.

  21. Soup Fascist says:

    Woogie63:
    If we can get Harmonic for a winger, or Yandle as an UFA, they both improve our defense.

    Yandle improves our offence from the back end.

    By eye he is a train wreck in his own zone. Curious to see what the smart analytic guys think about Yandle. Guy is 30 at start of next season. Not old, but not on the upswing. For me I stay as far away as possible, unless he is cheap – which he won’t be.

  22. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Kmart99,

    We value Nuge here. He is an underrated player. If you ran a straw poll of hockey fans around the continent I would wager the vast majority take Johansen.

    Maybe if Nuge ever cracked 50 points. 😉

  23. Bank Shot says:

    Soup Fascist: So if that trade “would have solved a lot of this team’s problems” can I assume you see Jones as a first pairing defenseman right now?

    Even if I agree with this point (which I don’t) your 1-2 centres are now (sans Nuge) 20 and 18 years old respectively and Mark Letestu is your #3.That is NOT a sure fire playoff bound team NEXT year, IMO.

    Best case you solved one problem and created another.Worst case you have weakened this team and ensured another couple of years of no playoffs waiting for Jones to grow into his role.This team needs a bona fide 1st pairing RHD – preferably without sacrificing a very young but experienced 2-way centre.

    Jones would be first pairing on the Oilers easily and I believe he’d grow into the role as well to become an actual first pairing guy.

    Draisaitl and McDavid would be 21 and 19 next year. That’s old enough for a playoff push especially if you get a vet stop gap center to take the loaf off Letestu.

    Toews was like 22? when the Hawks won their first cup? Getzlaf was 21. Crosby and Malkin would have been 22-23ish. 21-22ish during their first finals.

    If Draisaitl and McDavid are of the quality everyone thinks they are then their youth isn’t going to be an issue.

  24. Centre of attention says:

    Davidson+2016 1st round pick [5th-9th over all] for Hamonic and Okposo. Davidson can play right side and is very cheap for the Isles. Oilers over pay slightly but fill a huge hole, they later sign Okposo to a 3-year deal and trade Teddy for picks/prospects to help refill the farm. Davidson can play right side and is very cheap for the Isles. The Isles also get a stellar prospect in what looks like another deep draft. The deal happens at the draft.

    You heard it here first. Remember this comment, I will be quoting it after the draft to see how close I am to what actually happens 😉

  25. Professor Q says:

    Los Angeles sure does love trading with Philadelphia and Columbus.

  26. LMHF#1 says:

    Keep Talbot, Nilsson, Pakarinen and Davidson.

    Get what you can for the rest. If they turn Purcell into a first and the first into a defenceman who can actually help, that’s a master stroke from where he was to start the year. If only 2NDs are being offered, try to land a D prospect who is close instead.

  27. theres oil in virginia says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Whether they were right or not, PoIle got a bigger, higher scoring 1C than Nuge for the as yet unproven Jones.

    RNH has 73 143 216 in 298 games. Age 22.
    RJoh has 79 114 193 in 309 games. Age 23.

  28. Professor Q says:

    Bank Shot: I also see this as a missed opportunity. RNH for Nurse would have solved a lot of this team’s problems IMO.

    Ah, yes. Trading with themselves. :p

  29. John Chambers says:

    Trade Purcell if the Oilers are out by 5 pts or more by the deadline. He’s been good, but there are innumerable guys of that calibre who can put up points next to Hall and Drai.

    Better to spend the money on a piss-cutter, and if it doesn’t materialize there’s always re-signing Purcell who’ll be unlikely to sign in the first few days of free agency.

  30. Professor Q says:

    fifthcartel:
    Anyone else getting worried these good defensemen are being traded and the Oilers are left with significant holes?

    Perhaps because they are the Oilers and the league wishes to not play nicely with them?

  31. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    theres oil in virginia: RNH has 73 143 216 in 298 games. Age 22.
    RJoh has 79 114 193 in 309 games. Age 23.

    RNH has never had the kind of offensive season Johansen put up last year. Looking st their whole careers is not helpful here. Look, I take Nuge, too. I like his brain and work ethic and 2-way game.

    But there is almost no one outside Edmonton who thinks that way.

    Edit-Remember when the Jackets asked for Eberle for Johansen at the draft as Eberle was coming off his 34 goal, 76 point season and the Oilers” brass laughed?
    It’s like that. They may be wrong but people value Johansen over Nuge outside our world.

  32. GCW_69 says:

    Soup Fascist: So if that trade “would have solved a lot of this team’s problems” can I assume you see Jones as a first pairing defenseman right now?

    Even if I agree with this point (which I don’t) your 1-2 centres are now (sans Nuge) 20 and 18 years old respectively and Mark Letestu is your #3.That is NOT a sure fire playoff bound team NEXT year, IMO.

    Best case you solved one problem and created another.Worst case you have weakened this team and ensured another couple of years of no playoffs waiting for Jones to grow into his role.This team needs a bona fide 1st pairing RHD – preferably without sacrificing a very young but experienced 2-way centre.

    I see Jones as second pair right now with top pair in 12 – 24 months.

    This season and maybe next:

    Klefbom – Sekera

    Davidson/Nurse – Jones

    Davidson/Nurse – Fayne/Schultz

    With a goal to flip Sekera and Jones as soon as he is ready. LT has me bought into the “defensemen need 300 games to get it” school, and Jones will hit 300 games late next season.

  33. John Chambers says:

    Water Fire: Who are you trading for Jones? To me CBJ is taking a risk here. Right now they have given up a fair bit of value for potential.

    Agree with you – Columbus trades their best player for a guy not yet established as a top-4.

    I may feel very different about this trade in two years time, but NSH has decided their window to compete is now.

    Despite that, I don’t see RyJo stacking up well against the top C’s of the West. Toews and Kopitar will still murder him in the playoffs, but he gives the Preds a fighting chance.

  34. Soup Fascist says:

    Centre of attention:
    Davidson+2016 1st round pick [5th-9th over all] for Hamonic and Okposo. Davidson can play right side and is very cheap for the Isles. Oilers over pay slightly but fill a huge hole, they later sign Okposo to a 3-year deal and trade Teddy for picks/prospects to help refill the farm. Davidson can play right side and is very cheap for the Isles. The Isles also get a stellar prospect in what looks like another deep draft.The deal happens at the draft.

    You heard it here first. Remember this comment, I will be quoting it after the draft to see how close I am to what actually happens

    Can’t deal for Kyle Okposo in off-season he is UFA. Even if you traded this year before deadline, why would he sign 3 year deal? 27 years old, 220 lb winger flirting with ppg scoring (0.9 ppg over past 3 years). The kid is going to get a big year / big dollar offer. No question.

  35. John Chambers says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    You’re right about RyJo being a better 1C than Nuge, but Nuge’s contract will be much more team-friendly than the one Johansson will ultimately sign this summer.

  36. Professor Q says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": RNH has never had the kind of offensive season Johansen put up last year. Looking st their whole careers is not helpful here. Look, I take Nuge, too. I like his brain and work ethic and 2-way game.

    But there is almost no one outside Edmonton who thinks that way.

    Edit-Remember when the Jackets asked for Eberle for Johansen at the draft as Eberle was coming off his 34 goal, 76 point season and the Oilers” brass laughed?
    It’s like that. They may be wrong but people value Johansen over Nuge outside our world.

    His rookie season was at a very similar PPG rate as Johanson’s season of last.

    Johanson is a righty, though.

  37. Centre of attention says:

    Soup Fascist,

    I’m just spit balling. Haha. Maybe Strome instead of Okposo? Wouldn’t mind Nelson either. Okposo coming here and signing is my fantasy though.

  38. Kmart99 says:

    People see the 33 goal season and that’s it. They will never look past it.

    R. Johansen or Nuge… coin flip in my opinion. Knowing what I know about the two.

  39. theres oil in virginia says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    Not disagreeing with your statement that the valuation of RJo is higher than RNH outside Edmonton. However, the fact remains that RNH has the numbers above. Somehow, his offense continues to be downplayed. Johansen is bigger and I think that probably makes the difference. Both players are valuable. Big risk by CBJ, but Seth Jones might be good enough to give big reward. It’s the kind of risky trade that I say doesn’t ever happen, because GMs can lose their jobs and reputations over it. LeBrun says:

    Johansen, drafted in the 2010 draft, had fallen out of favor in Columbus with new coach John Tortorella, which came a year after a very acrimonious contract dispute.

    That factors into this too.

  40. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Professor Q: His rookie season was at a very similar PPG rate as Johanson’s season of last.

    I lnow, but my point still stands. Nuge has not put up 70 points over a full season yet. Or 30 goals, like Johansen did the year before.

    Around the fans outside Edmonton, the vast majority would take Johansen.

    Again, I take Nuge, but I am biased. I love the Nuge.

  41. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: This. Curious, GCW,who you would have traded to get Jones. Would you have traded RNH+ what? Because Johansen is worth more than RNH.

    I think the Preds are looking like big winners.

    RJ is so much closer to UFA that even if one agreed that he’s better than RNH, don’t think he’s as valuable.

  42. Soup Fascist says:

    GCW_69,

    Have to agree to disagree with you and “Bank Shot”.

    I don’t dislike Jones, but we need a 25 to 30 year old RHD who is legitimate first pairing now. Two years of cheap McD after this year.

    I am much happier giving up a package including this year’s first (lottery protected) and getting an established D man. Waiting for up to 24 months for Jones (assuming he gets there) is a dangerous game, IMO.

    If you are looking for a “type” I would consider a Kevin Shattenkirk. 40 to 50 point defenseman. 26 years old. Blues are awash in good RHD and have significant cap issues. He only has one year left after this year on a relatively cheap contract, so that is a little problematic (would likely not want to send high 1st rounder for 1 to 1.5 years of him) , but that is the type of guy I would want vs. Seth Jones.

    I get that Jones has a higher ceiling, but also is not yet established. Again – agree to disagree.

  43. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Davidson+2016 1st round pick [5th-9th over all] for Hamonic and Okposo. Davidson can play right side and is very cheap for the Isles. Oilers over pay slightly but fill a huge hole, they later sign Okposo to a 3-year deal and trade Teddy for picks/prospects to help refill the farm. Davidson can play right side and is very cheap for the Isles. The Isles also get a stellar prospect in what looks like another deep draft.

    You heard it here first. Remember this comment, I will be quoting it after the draft to see how close I am to what actually happens ?

    I think we would need to give a conditional pick on whether or not impose resigns. Just my thoughts.

    Soup Fascist:
    @BWildeCTV” I can confirm from a strong source the Habs are aggressively pursuing Drouin ….”

    I suppose we can file that under ‘no shit, Sherlock” as the Habs offence is at times non-existent.The question is what do they have that Tampa would want?

    No way in hell Stevie risks trading drouin in division, let alone to another eastern team.

    Thinking drouin for vatanen or fowler.

  44. cc says:

    I think from Nashville’s perspective they won the deal. In their opinion they have two of the top D man in the league in Weber & Josi, one of the best goalies and perhaps for the first time in franchise history they have a legit 1st line center.

    I think if your CBJ you believe you won the deal. You potentially have a franchise defender a minute eating number one defenseman. And you gave up a Center that either wanted out or wasn’t working out with the team.

    Sometimes deals work for both teams …

    In the summer I mentioned that if the Preds were interested in a Drai for Jones deal you would have to consider it. I think the same would hold true for the Nuge.

    With regards to the Nuge versus Johansen argument. Nuge is underrated, due to playing on the Oilers and also being a West Coast team not too many Eastern media know him other than the fact he plays for the Oilers. But you think that hockey operation people would know about him. “We” are fed info from Toronto media that really don’t know their head from their asses most of the time.

    Career Pts/G – RNH .72 versus Johansen .62
    Last three seasons; Johansen .75 Pts/G versus RNH .71 Pts/G

    Also, Nuge in my opinion Nuge is a better defender and plays double the amount of time on the PK as Johansen. Johansen is a bigger player and therefore deemed as a more physical player. (Whether that’s true or not, it’s up to personal opinon) If you look at the subjective stat Hits they are pretty much even.

    I would hate to see the Nuge go because he’s my fav Oiler but you would have to have the discussion. Right now it’s all hypothetical anyways … There are only a handful of defenders that you would make a deal like that and one of them is now off the board.

  45. Soup Fascist says:

    Centre of attention:
    Soup Fascist,

    I’m just spit balling. Haha. Maybe Strome instead of Okposo? Wouldn’t mind Nelson either. Okposo coming here and signing is my fantasy though.

    A player the Oilers (and many other teams) could certainly use.

  46. Seismic Source says:

    Recover some picks. Kind of has to happen. Trade the Newf.

  47. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Not disagreeing with your statement that the valuation of RJo is higher than RNH outside Edmonton.However, the fact remains that RNH has the numbers above.Somehow, his offense continues to be downplayed.Johansen is bigger and I think that probably makes the difference.Both players are valuable.Big risk by CBJ, but Seth Jones might be good enough to give big reward.It’s the kind of risky trade that I say doesn’t ever happen, because GMs can lose their jobs and reputations over it.LeBrun says:

    Johansen, drafted in the 2010 draft, had fallen out of favor in Columbus with new coach John Tortorella, which came a year after a very acrimonious contract dispute.

    That factors into this too.

    Yes, that’s why I said Nashville did well. Columbus traded him away for less than expected value.

    The reason I say using their whole careers isn’t helpful, well, we allow on this blog that bigger forwards and D take longer to develop. Johansen spent his draft +1 season in junior and then came along slowly. And then he blossomed into a 63 point season, and then 70.

    By no means am I saying Nuge has tapped his offensive ceiling. I think he clears 60 points this year.

    Put yourself in Poile’s shoes. If you had that team and were offered Nuge or RyJo straight up for Jones are you really saying you would take Nuge?

    And here we were saying we would never trade Nuge for Jones and then look what happened.

    I am saying I am glad Chiarelli did not offer Nuge + to beat that offer. Columbus paid a dear price.

  48. Soup Fascist says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:

    I am saying I am glad Chiarelli did not offer Nuge + to beat that offer. Columbus paid a dear price.

    The 1 – 2 centremen in Columbus are now Boone Jenner and Brandon Dubinsky.

    A dear price, indeed.

    Good Luck, Columbus.

  49. Seismic Source says:

    What kind of term does Davidson get? I’d go long. I’ve seen enough and this kid keeps proving he won’t go away. 6 years on a steal of a deal.

  50. cc says:

    Soup Fascist: The 1 – 2 centremen in Columbus are now Boone Jenner and Brandon Dubinsky.
    A dear price, indeed. Good Luck, Columbus.

    Alex Wennberg has averaged roughly 17 minutes per night and scored 11 points in his last 13 games. I think he might be one of their top 2 centers. Without Wennberg turning a corner the Jacket’s might not have made this deal.

  51. theres oil in virginia says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Contract status could be huge. If NAS can’t lock him up long term? Ouch.

  52. Soup Fascist says:

    cc: Alex Wennberg has averaged roughly 17 minutes per night and scored 11 points in his last 13 games. I think he might be one of their top 2 centers.Without Wennberg turning a corner the Jacket’s might not have made this deal.

    Good point – but beware of small sample size and Q of C. The thing is CC, it looks like we will soon get a good read on how good Alex Wennberg really is.

  53. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Contract status could be huge.If NAS can’t lock him up long term?Ouch.

    Sure. But I don’t see why they couldn’t sign him to a Ryan O’Reilly type deal. I bet Johansen is just happy to get away from CBJ.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Water Fire: Who are you trading for Jones? To me CBJ is taking a risk here. Right now they have given up a fair bit of value for potential.

    Couldn’t agree more.

  55. rickithebear says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I lnow, but my point still stands. Nuge has not put up 70 points over a full season yet. Or 30 goals, like Johansen did the year before.

    Around the fans outside Edmonton, the vast majority would take Johansen.

    Again, I take Nuge, but I am biased. I love the Nuge.

    RNH
    Last year:
    #12 center comp
    22 evg 41 evp
    This year
    #12 center comp
    40gm 6evg 14 eva

    Johansen
    Last year
    #21 center comp
    17evg 41 evp
    This year
    #120 center comp 4th line.
    38gm 5evg 10 eva

  56. StevieG_8 says:

    cc:
    I think from Nashville’s perspective they won the deal. In their opinion they have two of the top D man in the league in Weber & Josi, one of the best goalies and perhaps for the first time in franchise history they have a legit 1st line center.

    I think if your CBJ you believe you won the deal.You potentially have a franchise defender a minute eating number one defenseman.And you gave up a Center that either wanted out or wasn’t working out with the team.

    Sometimes deals work for both teams …

    In the summer I mentioned that if the Preds were interested in a Drai for Jones deal you would have to consider it.I think the same would hold true for the Nuge.

    With regards to the Nuge versus Johansen argument.Nuge is underrated, due to playing on the Oilers and also being a West Coast team not too many Eastern media know him other than the fact he plays for the Oilers.But you think that hockey operation people would know about him.“We” are fed info from Toronto media that really don’t know their head from their asses most of the time.

    Career Pts/G – RNH .72 versus Johansen .62
    Last three seasons; Johansen .75 Pts/G versus RNH .71 Pts/G

    Also, Nuge in my opinion Nuge is a better defender and plays double the amount of time on the PK as Johansen.Johansen is a bigger player and therefore deemed as a more physical player.(Whether that’s true or not, it’s up to personal opinon) If you look at the subjective stat Hits they are pretty much even.

    I would hate to see the Nuge go because he’s my fav Oiler but you would have to have the discussion.Right now it’s all hypothetical anyways …There are only a handful of defenders that you would make a deal like that and one of them is now off the board.

    I love Nuge’s 2-way game but I think Nashville’s defense corps/system might make RyJo look good. It’s a type of win now trade that won’t create a hole to fill a hole.

    From CBJ, I don’t know the team enough but I think they’re happy with a potential franchise D to pair with Ryan Murray and a fresh perspective if there are issues from their top centre. Maybe they realize it’s a big mess and are aiming for Matthews this draft to replace RyJo.

  57. Genjutsu says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yes, that’s why I said Nashville did well. Columbus traded him away for less than expected value.

    The reason I say using their whole careers isn’t helpful, well, we allow on this blog that bigger forwards and D take longer to develop. Johansen spent his draft +1 season in junior and then came along slowly. And then he blossomed into a 63 point season, and then 70.

    By no means am I saying Nuge has tapped his offensive ceiling. I think he clears 60 points this year.

    Put yourself in Poile’s shoes. If you had that team and were offered Nuge or RyJo straight up for Jones are you really saying you would take Nuge?

    And here we were saying we would never trade Nuge for Jones and then look what happened.

    I am saying I am glad Chiarelli did not offer Nuge + to beat that offer. Columbus paid a dear price.

    I’ll agree with most of this. I’m glad Pete didn’t give up Nuge alone for Jones. I think he’ll get there as a player. However it’s still a huge risk to take.

    If they trade Nuge this year, and I really don’t think they should, it needs to be for a proven commodity.

    Fan poles aside, Nuge had more value than Johansson. It’s the contract that most media keep saying was a mistake that gives Nuge there edge.

    Fans may miss that. Smart GMs don’t miss this stuff.

  58. 4th_Line_Plug says:

    Columbus knows they changed the draft rules and they are not guaranteed Matthews right?

    I’m over here watching the Habs Devils game hoping they announce Jersey wants Fayne back from the Oilers.

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I’d add that Nashville got Johansen for Jones from an Eastern Conference team. Even if we allow that Nuge has equal value to Johansen, the ask from a Western Conference team like Edmonton would probably have been Nuge plus.

    Either way it would have taken an overpay by Chiarelli to get Jones. That was my original point to GCW who said Chia needed to get involved. My question was how? Why?

  60. Genjutsu says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Sure. But I don’t see why they couldn’t sign him to a Ryan O’Reilly type deal. I bet Johansen is just happy to get away from CBJ.

    Yeah but he’s close enough to bring a UFA to smell the cash.

    Imagine the boatload of dollars Toronto would be of so happy to send him.

    Or Montreal. Or the other half the league that desperately needs a big strong number 1 C.

  61. Pouzar says:

    Nuge is going to be our Taves or Bergeron.
    Can’t wait.

  62. kinger_OIL says:

    GCW_69: I see Jones as second pair right now with top pair in 12 – 24 months.

    This season and maybe next:

    Klefbom – Sekera

    Davidson/Nurse – Jones

    Davidson/Nurse – Fayne/Schultz

    With a goal to flip Sekera and Jones as soon as he is ready. LT has me bought into the “defensemen need 300 games to get it” school, and Jones will hit 300 games late next season.

    And that’s the point: if you trade RNH for Jones, your D “likely” is better by the end of next year, but you have a massive C hole

    – For Columbus, they aren’t playoffs this year or next, and makes Nashville better now. Nashville traded from D strength: good trade on paper for both sides, but trading RNH for a “maybe top-” in 2 years = set-back for Oil. No more development FFS: we need moves to make us better now.

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Genjutsu: Yeah but he’s close enough to bring a UFA to smell the cash.

    Imagine the boatload of dollars Toronto would be of so happy to send him.

    Or Montreal. Or the other half the league that desperately needs a big strong number 1 C.

    Ok. Friendly bet? Nashville re-signs Johansen I win. He goes to UFA you win. Just bragging rights.

  64. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    PoIle is a smart GM and he has had to run on a tight budget in the past. Nashville is a fun hockey town and players seem to love it. I doubt he makes that trade without doing some research first to see if Johansen would consider re-upping or not.

    You can’t say on the one hand that GMs are too smart to not know Nuge has more value due to his contract but then not consider that the same GM would also be smart enough to find out if a player they are giving up a valuable asset to acquire would consider an extension or noy. Right?

  65. Ryan says:

    Wow. This is a big trade. Wow.

  66. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I think what everyone is missing thus far is that the deal that sent Seth Jones to Columbus opened up a hole on their back end on the third pairing.

    Andrew Ference would look great in a calf scour yellow sweater.
    Don’t ya think??

  67. Rondo says:

    A #3 D man for a #1 Center at the moment. Good trade for Nashville

  68. Dicky94 says:

    Would Lander get you Kirby out of CBJ now?

  69. blackadder says:

    Colimbus is a worse team after this trade – a legit #1 centre for a maybe/one day #1 defenceman. My guess is Johnson and Hartnell are next to go. This is the 1st step in the 2016 lose for Matthews stakes.

    And Nashville gained a #1 centre for their 5th defenceman. Pretty good day for them, I think.

  70. stevezie says:

    I still can’t get over how bad this Philly-LA trade is.

    The other one makes perfect sense. We can debate if RNH for Jones makes sense for us, and whether Nashville should prefer RNH or Johansen, but clearly Jones for Johansen makes a tonne of sense for both teams, just as some handsome poster said it would a few weeks ago (granted, it’s an obvious fit). What a handsome poster.

    But paying half Vinny’s salary, half Schenn’s, giving a 3rd and a Lander (Weal)? For Luke Schenn? Luke Fucking Schenn??? More reasonable trades have come out backgammon bets.
    I hate Philly so this makes me mad. At least LA suffers

  71. Genjutsu says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I think you’d win that. I agree with all of what you’re saying however I think he’s going to cost in the seven to nine range.

    There is risk involved, but that’s price you pay to win now.

  72. theres oil in virginia says:

    blackadder: My guess is Johnson and Hartnell are next to go.

    See, that’s what I’m wondering about. Is Johnson the kind of guy that Chiarelli would go for? Woodguy better get out his best gods (wooden, of course) and start praying now. Maybe a sacrifice, too.

  73. stevezie says:

    Genjutsu: Nuge had more value than Johansson.

    I don’t see it.

    I prefer RNH and have never been all in on Johansen, but if you take out his first two years he has the highest ppg, his 71 point season and 33 goal season are both the tops and he has never had a significant injury (though RNH is not bad in that department). Perhaps most importantly, RJ is 6’3″ 200. Plus he is 2 mil cheaper.

    RNH does a lot that doesn’t show up in that, but if you don’t watch a lot of RNH I don’t see why you’d choose him over RJ.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Johansen is a better player than Nuge. He impacts the game like Taylor Hall and Jamie Benn impacts the game. The ice tilts quite a bit when they are on the ice in their favor. It was no secret that he wanted out of Columbus so they did get pretty good value for him. Damn the central division playoffs are going to be a killer. Might see a Conference championship type matchups in the first round

  75. Ryan says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I think what everyone is missing thus far is that the deal that sent Seth Jones to Columbus opened up a hole on their back end on the third pairing.

    Andrew Ference would look great in a calf scour yellow sweater.
    Don’t ya think??

    The other thing people are missing is that after trading Seth Jones, Weber’s not going anywhere or coming here, in particular.

  76. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Ryan: The other thing people are missing is that after trading Seth Jones, Weber’s not going anywhere or coming here, in particular.

    I don’t know about that, because, just today, even Vinny Lecavalier was traded…

  77. Johnny Larue says:

    blackadder,

    Maybe CBJ have a cunning plan me lord

  78. blackadder says:

    Johnny Larue,

    They’re As cunning as a fox who has just been made professor of cunning at Oxford University.

  79. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar:
    Nuge is going to be our Taves or Bergeron.
    Can’t wait.

    Last year:
    Toews 20 evg 2nd for PvP
    22evg was #1.

    Going to be?

  80. BAUCE says:

    Soup Fascist: The 1 – 2 centremen in Columbus are now Boone Jenner and Brandon Dubinsky.

    A dear price, indeed.

    Good Luck, Columbus.

    And who are the flames centers? It doesn’t matter because their defence are winning games for them and are the reason they (most likely) make the playoffs again this year.

    50 points from the back-end in 15 games. We can only dream.

  81. stevezie says:

    In addition to overvaluing RNH, I think this board undervalues Jones. True, his stats aren’t dynamite to this point but he is young with obvious all-star potential. Now, once upon a time Justin Schultz and Tom Poti had that too so I understand if you don’t want to take the risk, but this guy was an intimate hair away from being 1st overall in a really, really good year. He’s got something.

    A lot less proven than RNH or RJ, but considering RJ apparently had to go, this was not a bad get.

    I love the deal for the Preds though. That’s what dealing from a position of excess looks like. Immediate up threat.

  82. MrEd says:

    Does Letang play with Maata? Anyone know off-hand?

  83. Pouzar says:

    MrEd:
    Does Letang play with Maata? Anyone know off-hand?

    Ian Cole

  84. JDï™ says:

    Verbad is not happy. Just a guess.

  85. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear: Last year:
    Toews 20 evg 2nd for PvP
    22evg was #1.

    Going to be?

    Man I’m quick

  86. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie:
    In addition to overvaluing RNH, I think this board undervalues Jones. True, his stats aren’t dynamite to this point but he is young with obvious all-star potential. Now, once upon a time Justin Schultz and Tom Poti had that too so I understand if you don’t want to take the risk, but this guy was an intimate hair away from being 1st overall in a really, really good year. He’s got something.

    A lot less proven than RNH or RJ, but considering RJ apparently had to go, this was not a bad get.

    I love the deal for the Preds though. That’s what dealing from a position of excess looks like. Immediate up threat.

    Agreed with you. Jones is a nice piece. Still surprised CBJ gave them that rare, big 1C straight up, but Torts has helped sewer RyJo.

    Edit-disregard

  87. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Murray is a lefty.
    As is Werenski

  88. stevezie says:

    Pouzar,

    I agree with him that Snow would be silly to turn down Eberle of Hamonic. I don’t love the idea of offering it.

    Someone (CoA?) suggested Davidson and a first for Hamonic and something, and that makes a certain kind of sense but I don’ see it happening. It would be amazing for the Oil but I don’t think the kid has enough of an NHL record to have much value.

  89. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Murray is a lefty.
    As is Werenski

    Ya. You were too fast for me to edit. Haha.

  90. square_wheels says:

    Pouzar,

    Well, at this point if we’re getting the better player, and Hamonic is by a slight margin, then I’m at a point with this D that any net gain is worth pursuing.

    Klef’s injury history is starting to become a concern. Suspect Hamonic may be tricky to extend but he’s signed for an additional 4 years which by then we’ll be either a contender or a failed disaster.

    Davidson is making that left side tricky when you add Nurse to the equation.

    Could always sign a vet LHD to play sheltered minutes on the PP.

    I would like a real PP QB someday on the LH side. Goligoski will be pricey but does Campbell at 18 min/game smell ok ?

  91. Oil2Oilers says:

    Premonition;

    Chia trade Jultz + AHL D prospect + 2nd for Harmonic at the deadline.

    Oilers 2016 D;

    Klefbom-Harmonic
    Davidson-Sekera
    Nurse-Reinhart

    And we rejoice.

  92. rickithebear says:

    Tilting the ice is an even play term.
    Not special team which is man advantage situation. The ice is already tilted.

    So last year johansen faced lesser comp and 5 less evg 17 than 1st (22 RNH) and tied for 3rd for evp 41 with datsyuk, orielly, RNH.

    Remember that line from Princess bride?

  93. Zelepukin says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Premonition;

    Chia trade Jultz + AHL D prospect + 2nd for Harmonic at the deadline.

    Oilers 2016 D;

    Klefbom-Harmonic
    Davidson-Sekera
    Nurse-Reinhart

    And we rejoice.

    Rejoice? Man is that an understatement.

  94. Soup Fascist says:

    BAUCE: And who are the flames centers? It doesn’t matter because their defence are winning games for them and are the reason they (most likely) make the playoffs again this year.

    50 points from the back-end in 15 games. We can only dream.

    As much as it pains me to say it Sean Monahan would easily be Columbus’ #1 centre. And it is yet to be seen if Jones becomes Brodie or Gio (spits).

    Again, I like Jones and I am not even necessarily a RyJo fan. It is just tough to say C-Bus got better today. That team has lots of holes.

  95. Klima's_Bucket says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Sorry, I’ll try to be slower next time…

  96. square_wheels says:

    And would anyone offer Buff more than Gio’s 6 x 40.5 ?

    Just typing that I made the Buckleys mixture face !

  97. Lowetide says:

    MrEd:
    Does Letang play with Maata? Anyone know off-hand?

    Not often, but effective when he does
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1806&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

  98. Professor Q says:

    I missed the Richards signing, too.

    Looks like we’re not a reclamation project oasis!

    Also that he might just get another cup with Washington.

  99. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Sorry, I’ll try to be slower next time…

    Nah. No need. Keeps me sharp!

  100. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels:
    And would anyone offer Buff more than Gio’s 6 x 40.5 ?

    Just typing that I made the Buckleys mixture face !

    Max for me:
    7
    7
    7
    6
    5
    4

    6 × 6m
    I’d also consider
    5 x 6.5m

    And I do that knowing full well it could be ugly after the first 3 or 4 years. That’s unless Hamonic can be had for a cheap acquisition cost. If he can, then no need.

    I would love Burns but think that’s a pipe dream. He would cost the 2016 1st + RNH, or something close to that. Sharks aren’t going to help a division rival in direct competition with them for the playoffs.

  101. Kmart99 says:

    Here’s an idea:

    To NYI:
    Davidson
    Yakupov
    4th rd pick

    To EDM:
    Hamonic
    Sompel
    5th rd pick

    Or am I under valuing Davidson’s true ability.

  102. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    Preposterous!

  103. Aron_S says:

    In the realm of trades and Chiarelli’s managerial style, I’ve been watching Behind the B (the Bruins version of Oil Change for those who might not know). The only season I’ve found on youtube seems to be the one following their 2013 Cup run, falling to Chicago.

    It’s interesting to watch how much Chiarelli trusts his staff/team for advice when it comes to making moves. There’s a lot about the movement of Seguin and the culture fit (and you definitely get a sense of what he loves in a player). Anyhow, my biggest takeaway from the first 4-5 episodes (of 12-13) is how much he relies on his staff. Given that interpretation and what we saw this summer (keeping on MacT, Howson, etc) it’s no wonder to me that he kept the D in place with lack of buyouts (Ference, Nikitin) and brought in Reinhart. Given a different staff or an all-new team, I don’t think that happens, but I think he needed the soft landing of already having a team in place in order to begin the transition.

    I do wonder if now that he’s seen how many of those bets didn’t work out, he goes ahead and makes some management changes to his team. I feel like he’s still testing the waters a bit and what impressed me about his management style was his patience and ability to make what he perceives as the right move (as opposed to Tambellini who I felt like patience translated to Dithers).

    Consider the “flurry” of trade action today, I’d recommend the watch for anyone who has time for it. RE:Seguin, his staff were really not fans of his and I think Chiarelli had a mature team that needed to move on from the kid and he made the best move for his team. It surprises me that Marchand stuck around given he was prone to the same shenanigans on and off the ice, but in the docu-series he’s very much in tight with a core that seemed to be Chara, Lucic, Bergeron, Krejci, Kelly.

    Anyhow, totally off topic and don’t mean to thread jack, I just watched a lot of youtube last night with the 2 month old and wanted to unload this somewhere and thought some people here might have input.

  104. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Aron_S,

    Good insights. We discussed Behind the B at length when Chia was hired. You will get various opinions around here, but it seemed like most of us agreed Neely had a lot of power and was a bit of a “Bruins culture bully” and that’s why when Chia came here he asked for complete autonomy.

    So I would suspect a little more assertiveness from Chia here than in Boston. BUT agree with your assessment of him as a consensus builder in some areas.

  105. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I would trade nearly anyone not Nuge, Drai, Hall , Nurse and McD for Hamonic then back up the truck of Katz money for Buff.

    What happens after 4 yrs…..don’t really care and neither should anyone else.

  106. Bag of Pucks says:

    Disappointed we missed out on Jones. Said it before: 3 years from now, a Nurse/Jones pairing could’ve rivalled Robinson/Savard.

    Given RNH’s more friendly contract, you’d have to think offering Nuge would’ve put the Oil in the conversation unless Poile simply sees more offensive upside with Johansen.

    I guess Chia wasn’t kidding when he said he wants to see this team fully healthy before he makes a trade.

  107. JDï™ says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Don’t look at it as ‘missing out on Jones’, think of it more as ‘avoiding Schenn’!

  108. Lowetide says:

    Aron_S:
    In the realm of trades and Chiarelli’s managerial style, I’ve been watching Behind the B (the Bruins version of Oil Change for those who might not know). The only season I’ve found on youtube seems to be the one following their 2013 Cup run, falling to Chicago.

    It’s interesting to watch how much Chiarelli trusts his staff/team for advice when it comes to making moves. There’s a lot about the movement of Seguin and the culture fit (and you definitely get a sense of what he loves in a player). Anyhow, my biggest takeaway from the first 4-5 episodes (of 12-13) is how much he relies on his staff. Given that interpretation and what we saw this summer (keeping on MacT, Howson, etc) it’s no wonder to me that he kept the D in place with lack of buyouts (Ference, Nikitin) and brought in Reinhart. Given a different staff or an all-new team, I don’t think that happens, but I think he needed the soft landing of already having a team in place in order to begin the transition.

    I do wonder if now that he’s seen how many of those bets didn’t work out, he goes ahead and makes some management changes to his team. I feel like he’s still testing the waters a bit and what impressed me about his management style was his patience and ability to make what he perceives as the right move (as opposed to Tambellini who I felt like patience translated to Dithers).

    Consider the “flurry” of trade action today, I’d recommend the watch for anyone who has time for it. RE:Seguin, his staff were really not fans of his and I think Chiarelli had a mature team that needed to move on from the kid and he made the best move for his team. It surprises me that Marchand stuck around given he was prone to the same shenanigans on and off the ice, but in the docu-series he’s very much in tight with a core that seemed to be Chara, Lucic, Bergeron, Krejci, Kelly.

    Anyhow, totally off topic and don’t mean to thread jack, I just watched a lot of youtube last night with the 2 month old and wanted to unload this somewhere and thought some people here might have input.

    Enjoyed reading this. I have watched that series and agree that Chiarelli seems both open to input and decisive. I dont really know what average or acceptable is in terms of trade success, but he seemed to win enough of them in Boston.

  109. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    It’s not just the points it’s his effect on the game. Nuge will be and is a good player but RyJo is in a league above him. Watch him play, seriously. He was the Blue Jackets version of “Chance”. Other than Oiler fans no one would have taken Nuge over Johansen in the trade today. Nuge has gotten to play with some exceptional offensive talents. Johansen has not

  110. leadfarmer says:

    square_wheels,

    This is exactly what I’m hoping for next offseason.

  111. Bag of Pucks says:

    JDï™:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Don’t look at it as ‘missing out on Jones’, think of it more as ‘avoiding Schenn’!

    We’ve could’ve acquired next year’s 2-3D for next year’s 3C. It’s a massive missed opportunity.

    Hope the Seguin trade hasn’t left Chia gun-shy. We need another elite D that fits the core. I’ll return to hoping Reinhart is the dark horse solution.

  112. jzed says:

    What is Jones status at end of yr?

  113. jzed says:

    If he is available via offer sheet or late night phone call from Caleb??

  114. Professor Q says:

    jzed:
    If he is available via offer sheet or late night phone call from Caleb?

    Or both?

  115. Yegfoundation says:

    Aron_S,

    Our daughter is 6 weeks old, I can relate with the sleepiness nights. Wouldn’t give it up for the world.

  116. RexLibris says:

    Yegfoundation:
    Aron_S,

    Our daughter is 6 weeks old, I can relate with the sleepiness nights.Wouldn’t give it up for the world.

    Congratulations.

    Two things:

    1. While you will eventually begin to string together more than 40 minutes of sleep at a time, the actual return to restful nights is a dream upon a far, distant horizon.

    2. It is surprising how the human mind will romanticize the struggles of the past once they are successfully bridged, and those sleepless nights may carry with them an aura of fond recollection – to go with shivers down your spine at the idea of doing it again.

    🙂

  117. Lois Lowe says:

    Aron_S,

    My recollection from watching that episode during the summer was that Chiarelli knew fully that trading Seguin was a bad idea. He said something to the effect of, “well, Seguin is a 40 goal scorer” because knew he wasn’t going to find another young, RH, centre and that his hands were tied. Whether it was Jeremy Jacobs or Cam Neely that had the final say, it seemed to me that Chiarelli was following his marching orders.

    RexLibris,

    My cat keeps me up at night too. She licks my eyelids when she’s hungry and claws at the back of my head when I hide from her. She even strategically barfs on the floor so that I step on it in the dark. You breeders think you’re the only ones that have it tough. 😉

  118. Loyal2theoil says:

    Could our defense next yeat look somewhat like Washingtons before Carlson started to become somewhat elite? Seems like they did a defense by commitee for awhile. Just a thought.

  119. KSC10032 says:

    The entire preceding discussion underlines an old truism:

    “You aren’t trading players — you are trading contracts.”

    Whether Nuge is “better” than RJ, or the other way around; is only part of the equation. Nuge’s cost certainty to 2021 is of considerable value is deciding upon a deal for Jones (presuming its was ever under genuine discussion).

    How much value that factor has — just like the question of which player is “better” — is a matter of subjective opinion.

    With regard to the actual trade, CBJ gains the extra contract control that the younger Jones brings.

  120. RexLibris says:

    Lois Lowe: RexLibris,

    My cat keeps me up at night too. She licks my eyelids when she’s hungry and claws at the back of my head when I hide from her. She even strategically barfs on the floor so that I step on it in the dark. You breeders think you’re the only ones that have it tough. ?

    You’re probably already aware of this, but I’ll post it here just in case:

    https://www.youtube.com/user/simonscat

    Cats, dogs, budgies, babies, in-laws…we all have our insomniac crosses to bear.

  121. "Steve Smith" says:

    RexLibris: Cats, dogs, budgies, babies, in-laws…we all have our insomniac crosses to bear.

    True enough – but never cross an insomniac bear.

  122. RexLibris says:

    I’ll have you all know that at this moment my twitter feed is being filled with all sorts of unimaginable filth courtesy of the Flames’ farm team and passed along to me by some devoted Flames’ fans.

    I’m talking Will Smith and Jazzy Jeff dancing, a man wearing a snuggie and gyrating on his couch…it is…almost unbearable.

    The things to which I subject myself for the sake of this hockey community are beyond the pale!

    I left them with this in response: http://thesnuggiesutra.com/?nosplash=1

  123. RexLibris says:

    “Steve Smith”: True enough – but never cross an insomniac bear.

    Is it an actual bear, or are we discussing hypotheticals? Or as we had determined months ago with regards to GMoney, not actually a bear, but rather a member of the marsupial family?

  124. Alpine says:

    Bag of Pucks: We’ve could’ve acquired next year’s 2-3D for next year’s 3C. It’s a massive missed opportunity.

    Hope the Seguin trade hasn’t left Chia gun-shy. We need another elite D that fits the core. I’ll return to hoping Reinhart is the dark horse solution.

    I’m starting to believe in Ethan Bear as that potential dark horse. At least moreso than Griff. The former is torching Griff’s draft +1 numbers and is RH. And I like Griff just fine.

  125. Alpine says:

    I personally think RJ has more value than Nuge, and if I was picking one guy to be my 1C I’d probably pick the latter. So with RJ on the bubble with CBJ since Torts came in, I have to think Poile was zeroed in on RyJo and would only look at Nuge as a consolation prize if he couldn’t land the other.

    I really wanted Jones, but I’ll take our core over CBJs even sans a potential 1D. And if we can even build an above average D corps, very few teams will be able to touch what will probably be the best C depth chart in the league.

  126. RexLibris says:

    For the above list of pending free agents (UFA/RFA) I like the idea of moving Purcell at the deadline and approaching him in the summer to be re-signed.

    My thoughts on this are:

    1. I am leery of FAs posting solid numbers in the final years of their current contracts. History shows as often as not that this is a misleading figure.

    2. The Oilers have internal options at the wing and need to determine the strength of those options before the summer.

    3. Purcell could be worth a 2nd round pick at the deadline, or be re-signed to a contract at around $3 million plus mid-season. Whereas, were we to pursue him as a free-agent, given the market conditions of the last few years and the likelihood that the cap remains, for all intents and purposes, stagnant, the Oilers could perhaps sign him to a very affordable deal at under $2 million.

    4. I have always felt that pending UFAs on teams that are not playoff bound or are at the very least on the bubble absolutely need to be moved for assets in hand. An example is Mike Modano’s last year in Dallas. They refused to move him because they were chasing a playoff spot. When they missed out it cost them not only the player himself but also the opportunity cost of what he might have brought back in picks and/or prospects.

    Purcell is not Modano, but the lesson is the same. This team will not hinge on Purcell and they need to add assets for a later date, be it to acquire prospects or to trade on the draft floor.

  127. Centre of attention says:

    I know our power play is bad, but watching the Canucks bumble this 5-on-3 is amusing to say the least.

  128. RexLibris says:

    Alpine:
    I personally think RJ has more value than Nuge, and if I was picking one guy to be my 1C I’d probably pick the latter. So with RJ on the bubble with CBJ since Torts came in, I have to think Poile was zeroed in on RyJo and would only look at Nuge as a consolation prize if he couldn’t land the other.

    I really wanted Jones, but I’ll take our core over CBJs even sans a potential 1D. And if we can even build an above average D corps, very few teams will be able to touch what will probably be the best C depth chart in the league.

    What I’m wondering is whether Johansen would’ve been the problem had they not hired Tortorella.

    The Blue Jackets have had all sorts of problems going back to the MacLean days, but hiring Tortorella this year was just ridiculous.

    Here’s the funny thing, if I’m looking over the Blue Jackets’ roster right now…I’ll be honest, I don’t see a core group. Or at least not one I’d want to build around.

    They have some good players here and there, but Johansen was the guy. Now they have Jones who was looking like he could be the guy, provided he was given lots of time and space to grow, the way Hedman has in TB.

    But instead he’s going into Columbus with a good-not-great defense corps working under a coach who is just this side of that raving bulldog in all the old Sylvester the Cat cartoons.

    If I’m rebuilding that team I’m not looking at the roster, I’m starting with the bloody management group.

    They’ve thrown the whole season in a year when they actually have a poorer chance of drafting the replacement for the player they just traded away!

    At least Maloney and Murray last year knew that if they threw enough ballast overboard they had a guarantee of one of the two franchise centers. If the Blue Jackets draft 4th this June that whole franchise is going to need to be disassembled and rebuilt, starting with the GM and coach.

  129. Aron_S says:

    Lois Lowe,

    This absolutely could have been the case as the episode essentially opens with Chiarelli mentioning that he’s already been testing the waters on Seguin. He doesn’t really have a negative word to say about him, but leaves that to Gretzky, Neely, Benning and a pro scout. He seems resigned to it and pulls the trigger when Horton leaves (although that could be editing). The whole experience just left me with hope that he is an excellent manager, but he might be prone to calls coming from inside the house.

    One bit that confused me was Chiarelli saying rhetorically, “Where have we heard that before?” as someone describes Seguin as an all world skill level without the willingness to battle. Thornton? Who would the Bruins have history with on this?

  130. Aron_S says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Well done. The fact that this was followed shortly by someone mentioning Ethan Bear was a missed opportunity.

  131. Quinlan says:

    I have yet to see a compelling argument that RyJo is actually better than Nuge.

    More famous yes. Bigger yes. More loved by the media yes. But better?

    And I mean a real argument. Not just… RyJo is better because he scored 30.

    Best pts/g season thus far

    RyJo = 0.87 pts/g

    Nuge = 0.84 pts/g

    I mean, just what does RyJo do that makes him indisputably better?

  132. Aron_S says:

    Yegfoundation,

    Congrats! It’s an awesome time and there’s always time for sleep later, isn’t there?

    He’s given me the chance too watch more PVR’d OIlers games than when I lived at my parents in the Smyth-Weight-Guerin days. It’s a treat, I just wish these guys played more consistent hockey.

  133. Oddspell says:

    Aron_S,

    I’m guessing Kessel as Chiarelli wasn’t at the helm when Thornton was a part of the organization.

  134. Rondo says:

    Matt Henderson has an excellent article on Seth Jones

    “THE JONES BULLET DODGED”

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/1/6/the-jones-bullet-dodged

  135. leadfarmer says:

    Quinlan,

    Please watch him play. Like I said before he was their version of “chance”. Always very dangerous whenever he stepped on the ice. He’s kind of like Hall in that good things are usually happening when he’s on the ice. He drives the bus. Nuge is a very good player but I wouldn’t say he drives the bus. You can’t compare points across teams. Nuge gets to play with some very good players, Johansen does a lot of the work himself

  136. Bos8 says:

    For all the cat people that might have missed this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuRn2S7iPNU

  137. Alpine says:

    RexLibris,

    I see Saad, Jenner, Wennberg as decent group of young Fs and Dubinsky, Foligno, Atkinson and Hartnell as useful veteran top 9 Fs. Merely decent, but really needs a Matthews more than any other bottom feeding F group in the league after moving Johansen. Foligno is overpaid but he delivers well in a number of ways.

    On D, Tyutin can still hack it, Johnson and Savard aren’t much but Murray, Werenski and Jones is a very nice core to move forward with. Add Chychrun (Ekblad Jr.) to that if the Finns and Matthews are gone and it’s looking really good down the road.

    So it’s not hopeless for them if they can land a good C sometime in the next couple years. And I really like the Jones trade as a sort of veiled tank move where you lose a top player and add a guy who might put off his breakout till next season after you sustain a good lottery position. Unfortunately, the draft odds from now on make tanking less worthwhile, but clinching 30th at least gets them someone elite.

    But Torts is a fireable offense on its own.

  138. Bag of Pucks says:

    Rondo:
    Matt Henderson has an excellent article on Seth Jones

    “THE JONES BULLET DODGED”

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/1/6/the-jones-bullet-dodged

    Seth Jones is going to be another Victor Hedman.

    Try trading for Hedman now that he’s through the development stage. Impossible.

    Henderson is basing his conclusion on Jones play as a 21 year old D. GMs are paid to have a tad more foresight than that.

  139. Aron_S says:

    Oddspell,

    Right. Of course, this would make sense.

  140. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo,

    What a turd on a stick that article is. So a team that has ridiculous defensive depth can shelter their 21 year old defenseman. That’s is not a bad thing. He’s at the point were Larsson was a year and a half ago. You don’t want to trade for him because you don’t want to get ripped off and next thing you know they are untradeable and you’re off to the next target. Yes he’s is having a little bit of a tough time this year but his big argument is his point total. Well guess what unless you are playing with Weber and Josi no one on that team is putting up points. Their forward production completely relies on Forsberg, Neal, and Ribero as these are their only forwards on pace for more than 30 points

    BTW this Nashville team is leading the league in shot differential and Rinne is holding them back this year. If he can get on track they will be deadly

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    Alpine: I’m starting to believe in Ethan Bear as that potential dark horse. At least moreso than Griff. The former is torching Griff’s draft +1 numbers and is RH. And I like Griff just fine.

    Good points. Love that big slapper of Bear’s fo sho.

  142. Bag of Pucks says:

    A quick thought on Griffin Reinhart.

    He was dominant in junior. That doesn’t happen if you have prohibitive foot speed issues and you certainly don’t go 4OV in the draft if you can’t skate.

    I truly believe the issue with Reinhart is he needs the reps to get to that point as a pro when the game slows down that extra half second. I watched him a ton in junior and I think his greatest assets are his positional play and the way he thinks the game. His ability to angle Fs off the puck is sublime.

    Dont give up on this kid. He’s going to be a pillar on this D core for a decade. Patience.

  143. Lowetide says:

    Please, please, please refrain from posting things that are hearsay and about public people. I beg of you. Thanks.

  144. Lois Lowe says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t think Reinhart has foot speed issues. I think that has become orthodoxy here of late. He does everything well, but nothing exceptionally. Right now my career comp is Steady Steve Staios, which is an effective, reliable 3-6 D on a good team.

  145. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    Please, please, please refrain from posting things that are hearsay and about public people. I beg of you. Thanks.

    I heard LT once had a fling with Farrah when she was still married to the six million dollar man.

    Guy has balls of steel and the soul of a pirate.

  146. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t think Reinhart has foot speed issues. I think that has become orthodoxy here of late. He does everything well, but nothing exceptionally. Right now my career comp is Steady Steve Staios, which is an effective, reliable 3-6 D on a good team.

    For obvious reasons, I hope you’re wrong. My wishful upside is his Dad, Paul, but I’d happily settle for a Jason Smith type career.

  147. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I heard LT once had a fling with Farrah when she was still married to the six million dollar man.

    Guy has balls of steel and the soul of a pirate.

    It could also have been Wonder Woman, back in the days when Lynda Carter was so hot, she only had to turn up in order to make every problem go away.

  148. StevieG_8 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    A quick thought on Griffin Reinhart.

    He was dominant in junior. That doesn’t happen if you have prohibitive foot speed issues and you certainly don’t go 4OV in the draft if you can’t skate.

    I truly believe the issue with Reinhart is he needs the reps to get to that point as a pro when the game slows down that extra half second. I watched him a ton in junior and I think his greatest assets are his positional play and the way he thinks the game. His ability to angle Fs off the puck is sublime.

    Dont give up on this kid. He’s going to be a pillar on this D core for a decade. Patience.

    I heard he’s a workhorse in juniors. I really want him to succeed. I don’t mind some peace and quiet during his defensive shifts and in the offense, he seemed to have a big point shot in some junior highlights. He’s the type of defenseman you want to take your time on.

  149. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: It could also have been Wonder Woman, back in the days when Lynda Carter was so hot, she only had to turn up in order to make every problem go away.

    She could tie you up to make you tell her the truth and you wouldn’t mind it….one damn bit.

  150. stevezie says:

    Quinlan: More famous yes. Bigger yes. More loved by the media yes. But better?

    For my part, this is the argument. RJo has more league-wide value.

    I don’t get the counter-argument.

  151. stevezie says:

    RexLibris: What I’m wondering is whether Johansen would’ve been the problem had they not hired Tortorella.

    As soon as Torts was hired Jeff Marek said he they chose him specifically because they wanted someone to rein in Johansen. Marek himself refused to frame it negatively, just saying RJo danced to his own drummer, and CBS wanted him to dance to theirs.

    What does this mean? Nothing. Not trying to spread heresay. Just trying to say the rift predated Torts.

  152. dangilitis says:

    Decided to run this after what I viewed Cullen to be cherry-picking a bit by looking at Ryan’s last 200 games, where he is ranked 11th overall for C.

    I think smarter minds have run similar, but this is total points among forwards under the age of 26 since 1996-1997:
    Hall at #70 (and 2 more years to go projects #20-30),
    #40 Smyth
    #44 Hemsky
    #50 Gagner
    Eberle #74 (0.75 more years, projects ~#50)
    RNH at #158 (with 3.75 more years, projects top 20-30 if 50 pt/season pace)
    Ryan Johansen #179 (with 3 years left, projects 30-40 if 60 pt/season pace)

    Then I sorted by pts/game (min 200 GP, # seasons in brackets)
    #1-10: Crosby (9), Lindros (4), Forsberg (4), Kariya (5), Ovechkin (7), Malkin (7), Heatley (5), Kovalchuk (8), Spezza (7), Backstrom (#11-23 includes Getzlaf, Thornton, Kane, Tavares, Stamkos, Giroux, Kopitar, E Staal, Kane, you get the idea…)
    #24 Hall (6) & #34 Seguin (6)
    #42 Hemsky (7) & #43 Iginla (8)
    #50 Eberle (6)
    #70 RNH (5)
    #74 Smyth (7)
    #116 Johansen (5)

    Conclusions:
    – When people repeatedly say that Justin Faulk is one of the more undervalued players in the league, he is no longer undervalued. Hemsky was undervalued. Eberle and Nuge are undervalued.
    – Johansen is 223 lbs and strung together 2 excellent seasons, hence he projects to a #1 C. RNH is smaller and has been more consistent from the get go, so he projects as an expendable #2-3 C. This is not logical.

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1997&year_max=2016&birthyear_min=&birthyear_max=&threshhold=5&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=26&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_playoffs=N&pos=F&handed=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points&order_by_asc=&lite=0&offset=100

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1997&year_max=2016&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=26&birth_country=&birthyear_min=1973&birthyear_max=2016&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=F&handed=&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=gt&c1val=200&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

  153. Quinlan says:

    stevezie,

    There are quite a few comments earlier in this thread that assert that RyJo is better – not one gave any substantive argument .

    Now value, that’s an entirely different discussion.

  154. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Look, I love Nuge and for the Oilers I take him and what he brings in terms of 2-way play over Johansen. But the Oilers have McDavid and Draisaitl.

    For the Predators, and any offense-starved team there is just no way you take Nuge over Johansen.

    You guys quoting Nuge’s rookie year over 62 games and putting that alongside RyJo’s numbers from last season, and the guys quoting their career totals are missing the point.

    Nuge is a good offensive player and a good 2-way player. This is not calling him a slouch.

    It’s called a trend, and Johansen had been trending up. 33G-30A-63P /26G-45A-71P. Nuge hasn’t come close to his .84 pts/gm since his rookie year. Scoring has been coming down. 71 points last year was a great total. Johansen has the higher offensive acumen displayed so far. Nuge the higher overall acumen.

    I still love RNH. But you guys are fooling yourselves if you think he had more value to Nashville, who needed a top-line offensive C capable of 30G and 70pts more than a 2-way defensively responsible C capable of 25G and maybe 60pts.

    Add in 6’3″ 218 pounds vs. 6′ and 190 pounds and it’s an easy choice for Nashville, contract aside.

    Most of you were saying there was no way in hell you’d trade Nuge for Jones anyway until yesterday so why even be upset about it?

    In the present day NHL, to most teams lacking a true #1C, RyJo has more value than does Nuge. He is big and he scores more.

    Regardless the Oilers likely would have had to offer Nuge plus something, as a conference rival, to trump CBJ’s Johansen offer.

    I am glad we didn’t pay that price. And I say that as a big fan of Jones’.

  155. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Quinlan:
    stevezie,

    There are quite a few comments earlier in this thread that assert that RyJo is better – not one gave any substantive argument .

    Now value, that’s an entirely different discussion.

    My entire argument said “value.”

  156. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Quinlan:
    stevezie,

    There are quite a few comments earlier in this thread that assert that RyJo is better – not one gave any substantive argument .

    Now value, that’s an entirely different discussion.

    There has been precisely one poster, and only two comments by him (leadfarmer) that said RyJo is better than Nuge.

    Everyone else was discussing value.

    You, sir, are clearly mistaken.

  157. Quinlan says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    At the get go, I wasn’t really disputing much of anything. I certainly wasn’t focused on the whole value question a lot of other posters were. I threw out a question, not merely rhetorical, to see if anyone had crunched the numbers on RyJo and found him significantly ahead of Nuge. If anyone had, I hadn’t heard it and wanted to know if such a thing was out there. Then I saw a couple of comments which flat out called RyJo better (Leadfarmer, John Chambers) and one which somewhat misleadingly said that Nuge has not had as good an offensive season as the one RyJo had last year (difference in ppg of .03 between their most productive season).

    I responded and questioned that. I guess I should have precisely referred to the three posters and proceeded to call them out?

    You’ve made your point about Nuge’s value (with which, by the way, I agree).

    Chill out.

  158. G Money says:

    Just thought I should point out that Nuge is out scoring RJo this year. Because trend?

    On a separate note, trading Nuge for Jones is a mistake IMO – not for scoring but for strategic reasons.

    Jones is good and has lots of potential, but potential to be a number one defenseman is a looooong way from actually being a number one defenseman, and there are many a slip between that cup and the lip.

    Strategically, I think the Oilers are set on a path that requires a defense corps that has no weaknesses, rather than one built around a number 1D. They need two more top four guys rather than looking for a high risk 1D homerun.

    That’s how you build a team around three elite centres – rather then copying a template from other teams that have a completely different mix in their asset base.

  159. G Money says:

    Get up, you lazy goatherders! Up! Why are you all sleeping in the middle of the day?!?!

  160. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    G – This is what I have said as well: unless a #1 falls on lap, get 5 3-4 D’s, and just score more, and myabe one of Klef/Nurse/Davidson develops higher ceiling. Right now we have Sekera and Klef who are top 4. Nurse probably, Davidson maybe, Griff maybe. Need 2 more. Harmonic and another.

  161. theres oil in virginia says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Thanks for carrying the discussion on this last night. I really don’t have a strong position on the issue of Nuge vs RJo, they look very close to each other to me. I looked at RJo’s point production for the last two years against the west, thinking that it’d be down compared to vs the east, but he’s basically a point/game vs west. I think he fits NAS better than Nuge would. That contract is an issue until he is either traded for value or extended. If Jones grows up to be anything like Doughty, it’s bad for Poile. Very interesting trade and I’m glad the Oilers stayed out of it, but I’m risk averse.

  162. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: There has been precisely one poster, and only two comments by him (leadfarmer) that said RyJo is better than Nuge.
    Everyone else was discussing value

    Here’s the odd thing. Right now RyJo might be better, but surely value in a trade has to look at contract and RNH has to have more value.

  163. Professor Q says:

    Poile said that he had been talking with Columbus for a while, and Johanson was not available until they lost 8 straight and changed up coaches; definitely adds to the odds being in Columbus’ favour with regards to trading offence for Jones (Poile tried to get Johanson without giving up Jones first).

    So, a situational trade on Columbus’ side and an offence-geared trade on Nashville’s side.

    The Nuge doesn’t really have the same situational issues as Johanson’s anyway, regardless of size, handedness, and league view.

  164. Ryan says:

    G Money:

    Jones is good and has lotsof potential, but potential to be a number one defenseman is a looooong way from actually being a number one defenseman, and there are many a slip between that cup and the lip.

    We miss you, G! When are you going to stop slacking and get back to work?

    Shea Weber’s too old and Seth Jones is too unproven–both true but we’re starting to get goldilocks syndrome.

    No one is ever going to trade us a 23-year-old Faulk, 24-year-old OEL, 26-year-old Drew Doughty, 25-year-old Erik Karlson, or 25-year-old Victor Headman.

    I know the Canucks had the no number one dman, but ‘d by committee’ approach in their cup run. I think it’s really hard to have a good d corps without a number one to push everyone down on the depth chart.

  165. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Teddy Purcell at a number in the 3s…. oh geez.

    I’ve been arguing that the collective group (most of whom I have a great deal of respect for, understand) have been over valuing this player. Not to say I don’t like him, not to say I don’t want him on the team. I simply think we look at a guy like this and talk about signing him for way too much money, just like we talked about giving Franson lots of money or Glencross multiple millions of dollars last summer, either of whom could have been had for substantially less.

    I would like to make a bet with someone who thinks paying Teddy P. +/- $3.5million/year is a good idea.

    If he signs a contract for less than $3million/year (or doesn’t get a contract by Oct 1 2016), you will make a $50 donation to this site
    If he signs a contract for more than $3million/year, I will make a $50 donation to this site

    If he signs for exactly $3million it’s a push.

    Let me know if there are any takers.

  166. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Магия 10,

    That’s the thing that gets me about RyJo. He’s got a history that suggests to me there is a bit of a Prima Donna there (the AHL benching comes to mind). When his contract is up, even if his production isn’t in that upper echelon 80+ point range, he’s going to expect to get paid absolute top dollar. You aren’t likely locking this kid up long term for anything less than $8million/year, and I’m just not sure his production to date has justified that.

    Good player, but you might still be over paying him in the long run. In a cap world that’s not ideal.

  167. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Quinlan:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    At the get go, I wasn’t really disputing much of anything. I certainly wasn’t focused on the whole value question a lot of other posters were. I threw out a question, not merely rhetorical, to see if anyone had crunched the numbers on RyJo and found him significantly ahead of Nuge. If anyone had, I hadn’t heard it and wanted to know if such a thing was out there. Then I saw a couple of comments which flat out called RyJo better (Leadfarmer, John Chambers) and one which somewhat misleadingly said that Nuge has not had as good an offensive season as the one RyJo had last year (difference in ppg of .03 between their most productive season).

    I responded and questioned that. I guess I should have precisely referred to the three posters and proceeded to call them out?

    You’ve made your point about Nuge’s value (with which, by the way, I agree).

    Chill out.

    I was chill. Just pointing out that if you say you saw “many comments” saying Johansen was better, the rest of us should be able to find these many comments. There were what, 2?

    As for Nuge’s rookie year vs. RyJo’s best year, well, unfortunately Nuge only got 62 games in that year. Might he have cleared 70 points? Maybe.

    If you thought I was attacking you, I didn’t mean that. My point was and remains that even with contracts considered, PoIle would have taken Johansen over Nuge. RJ fits what they need better and has more value to Nashville.

    Add in the conference rival factor and if the Oilers wanted Jones the ask would have been Nuge-plus once RJ was on the table. Posters here were mostly against trading Nuge straight up for Jones.

    Therefore, a good non-trade by Chiarelli.

  168. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    G Money:
    Just thought I should point out that Nuge is out scoring RJo this year.Because trend?

    On a separate note, trading Nuge for Jones is a mistake IMO – not for scoring but for strategic reasons.

    Jones is good and has lotsof potential, but potential to be a number one defenseman is a looooong way from actually being a number one defenseman, and there are many a slip between that cup and the lip.

    Strategically, I think the Oilers are set on a path that requires a defense corps that has no weaknesses, rather than one built around a number 1D.They need two more top four guys rather than looking for a high risk 1D homerun.

    That’s how you build a team around three elite centres – rather then copying a template from other teams that have a completely different mix in their asset base.

    He is outscoring him this year by .7 pts/game to .685 pts/game. It’s close. Nuge may even crack 50 points this year at last 😉 (I personally think he hits 65).

  169. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    It only took China 30 minutes of trading last night to fall 7 percent (it’s daily trading limit). Down 14 percent this week.

    The Japanese yen, a safe haven currency, has gone from 123 to the US dollar recently to 117, meaning traders are running for the exits. The US market has made more big down days to start 2016 than we have seen in quite some time, and there’s that crack of 2000 in the S&P we were looking for. Puts are paying handsomely due to the spike in volatility, but I continue to suggest you stay away from markets and keep your powder dry at this time.

    Markets were fully valued and the geopolitical, China, and oil risks are high at the moment. Let the air come out of markets before bargain hunting. Personally I will be looking strictly at some of the US tech giants that may be interesting if they continue to fall. We may get an August style flush. I still would not invest at the moment in Canada and/or commodity markets.

  170. Really? says:

    G Money,

    I agree wholeheartedly. This is not the time for the Oilers to go whale hunting. They need to get solid D men and the team will improve significantly. People are always looking for a home run.

  171. GCW_69 says:

    Soup Fascist:
    GCW_69,

    Have to agree to disagree with you and “Bank Shot”.

    I don’t dislike Jones, but we need a 25 to 30 year old RHD who is legitimate first pairing now.Two years of cheap McD after this year.

    I am much happier giving up a package including this year’s first (lottery protected) and getting an established D man.Waiting for up to 24 months for Jones (assuming he gets there) is a dangerous game, IMO.

    If you are looking for a “type” I would consider a Kevin Shattenkirk.40 to 50 point defenseman.26 years old.Blues are awash in good RHD and have significant cap issues.He only has one year left after this year on a relatively cheap contract, so that is a little problematic (would likely not want to send high 1st rounder for 1 to 1.5 years of him) , but that is the type of guy I would want vs. Seth Jones.

    I get that Jones has a higher ceiling, but also is not yet established.Again – agree to disagree.

    If it helps, last year Jones delivered a higher points per 60 on the PP (4.47) than Weber (3.46), Josi (3.24) and Ellis (3.31) despite (based on minutes) being on the second PP unit and having the lowest PP PDO of the group. So, he is already delivering on the PP.

  172. GCW_69 says:

    Ryan: Shea Weber’s too old and Seth Jones is too unproven–both true but we’re starting to get goldilocks syndrome.
    No one is ever going to trade us a 23-year-old Faulk, 24-year-old OEL, 26-year-old Drew Doughty, 25-year-old Erik Karlson, or 25-year-old Victor Headman.
    I know the Canucks had the no number one dman, but ‘d by committee’ approach in their cup run. I think it’s really hard to have a good d corps without a number one to push everyone down on the depth chart.

    This is exactly right. If the Oilers want to fill this hole, they are going to have to make a trade and likely on a player with some risk. I would rather they take that risk on a player on the upswing of his career than the downswing.

    This team will miss the playoffs for the 10th straight year. TEN!. And this is the time to be risk averse? Seriously?

  173. Klima's_Bucket says:

    GCW_69: This team will miss the playoffs for the 10th straight year. TEN!. And this is the time to be risk averse? Seriously?

    The Oilers can let the Hall cluster shelter the McDavid cluster which can shelter the next cluster which hopefully includes Dmen.
    It’s been 10 years, why not wait another 10???

  174. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    GCW_69,

    While this may be true, I still don’t see how you can blame Chiarelli for not paying Nuge plus?

  175. GCW_69 says:

    Let’s not lose sight of the fact that, if Chairelli wanted in on the Jones deal, part of his job is to point out why Nuge would be a better option for Nashville, including:

    – much better contract situation
    – no heart condition
    – more consistent offence
    – stronger two way game
    – no off ice work ethic issues (rumoured that RJ has some commitment issues*)
    – etc.

    The case can be made either way with these two players. Chiarelli’s job would be to convince Poille that RJ is the devil and Nuge is the answer to all his prayers after all. Then spend four hours skiing. Alone. Completely and utterly alone. He is going to do that because that is his life, that is what’s real, and there is nothing he can do to change that…**

    * These rumours may or may not be true, I don’t know, but I heard them on the radio from a Columbus reporter. But if you are Chiarelli and selling Nuge, you certainly act as if the RJ rumours are true.
    ** Obscure movie reference.

  176. GCW_69 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    GCW_69,

    While this may be true, I still don’t see how you can blame Chiarelli for not paying Nuge plus?

    Why would the deal be Nuge plus unless the return was Jones plus?

  177. misfit says:

    I like Johansen plenty, but I don’t see it as a big risk from CBJ’s perspective. Seth Jones is a rare hockey player playing in just his 3rd NHL season. Drew Doughty aside, how many of today’s top defensemen (and top Dmen of years past) have, or would have, shown elite underlying numbers in their first 3 years? Chris Pronger hadn’t topped 30 points or was a plus player in any of his first 3 seasons. Most have had only 2 or fewer NHL seasons played at this point in their careers. And at 199 NHL GP, next season will be the point where most top defensemen really establish themselves as difference makers. And we all know how much the underlying numbers are dependent on role and opportunity. He’ll be a focal point of the Columbus defense, and I expect his fancy stats will start to take a turn for the better once he gets familiar with his new team (and next year, watch out).

    The only sense that I see that trade as being more risky for CBJ than NSH is that the Predators are better equipped to replace Jones than the Jackets are to replace Johansen.

    As for RNH vs Johansen, I would easily place more value in Nuge than RJo. I’m sorry we missed out on Jones (I don’t know if there’s a more perfect fit for our needs than him, at least outside of the “don’t even ask” list), but I’m not the least bit sorry we didn’t trade Nuge. I would want something coming back with Jones if I made the deal, and I’d also hang on until McDavid returned at least.

  178. Water Fire says:

    A few days ago it was about that the Preds were interested in Nuge. Chia must have seen the peril and not been up for the risk.

    Nuge is a better player than Johansen in the same way Datsyuk was better than all of teh other bigger centres that outscored him. Nuge will have the better career and isn’t a trouble maker either. And there is the control thing with the contract situation.

    Most people/teams will take size first. But what makes Kopitar and Toews good isn’t their size, it’s their noggins.

    CBJ has turned itself into Nashville. Torts will say they can’t win when the chips are down so they have no heart. When he is old and retired a gradkid will tell him when he coached CBJ it was 2016 not 1996.

    The era of huge = better is long over, since they put in the rule against open ice tackling. Drive and skill win the day first, size is a bonus.

    ____________

    When everyone is talking about the stud #1 defenseman, who do you mean? I see maybe 5 at most. Then there are a bunch of high skill guys who are weaker defensively (who I am not sold on, I feel D don’t drive EV offense they capitalize on it) but I don’t see 30 dominant in all phases of the game types. Most teams don’t have one. Washington and Dallas don’t.

    So you either pick them up UFA, get real lucky on a trade for a Jones type, or get real lucky when a GM loses his mind and gives a good player away for a lesser one.

    Chia must be waiting to be able to unload a winger for a D if he didn’t take Jones. I would take this tack as well and overpay a bit to grease the wheel with picks. The value of a current player is very high for the Oilers given the age and set of the roster. It makes futures expendable at this time without causing damage like the Penner offer sheet did.

    Given how often D get hurt I’d rather have the 5 top 4 guys and keep rolling when someone gets hurt. It also allows more cap choices. When McL turns the PP around everyone will view the better D we have differently. When you have three #1 centres all you really need is guys that can pass and hold the O blue line well enough.

  179. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    GCW_69: Why would the deal be Nuge plus unless the return was Jones plus?

    In-conference rival and Johansen is worth at least Nuge.

  180. GCW_69 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: In-conference rival and Johansen is worth at least Nuge.

    I would not agree that RJ is worth at least Nuge for the reasons I stated above:

    – much better contract situation
    – no heart condition
    – more consistent offence
    – stronger two way game
    – no off ice work ethic issues (rumoured that RJ has some commitment issues*)
    – etc.

    Conference rival is a factor, but Poile wants to win now and the Oilers won’t be winning anything for a couple of years at least. Not saying he would definitely take Nuge over RJ, but I think it would be very close.

  181. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    GCW_69: I would not agree that RJ is worth at least Nuge for the reasons I stated above:

    – much better contract situation
    – no heart condition
    – more consistent offence
    – stronger two way game
    – no off ice work ethic issues (rumoured that RJ has some commitment issues*)
    – etc.

    Conference rival is a factor, but Poile wants to win now and the Oilers won’t be winning anything for a couple of years at least.Not saying he would definitely take Nuge over RJ, but I think it would be very close.

    And I would say that you would be in the minority around the NHL with that opinion.

    Size and scoring is the most coveted combination in the NHL. Johansen has that over Nuge.

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