MORNINGTOWN

My three favorite games by the Oilers this season (In Calgary, at home to Montreal and the Rangers on Sather night) involved overcoming difficulties and pushing the river when the opportunity arose. The man games lost is a part of the story of this season, and because of it (imo), games like those three disappeared (mostly) after early December. If Edmonton was a winner in January, fans knew to look for Cam Talbot to have a big game. The last 32 games of this season need more balance, more control, more sustained possession and better special teams—and nights when this team can push the river. Connor McDavid should help some of that, one hopes the return of Brandon Davidson and Oscar Klefbom stills the waters in the defensive zone. All bound for Morningtown, many miles away.

oesterle williams

JANUARY CONDORS

I am always struck by the second half of an AHL season. For some reason, it seems the rubber hits the road and prospects begin to either find the range or fade away. Here are the numbers for January:

  1. Jordan Oesterle 10, 2-5-7 (20 shots)
  2. Josh Winquist 6, 4-2-6 (19 shots)
  3. Ryan Hamilton 10, 3-3-6 (32 shots)
  4. Andrew Miller 8, 2-4-6 (20 shots)
  5. Tyler Pitlick 6, 3-2-5 (19 shots)
  6. Joey Laleggia 6, 3-2-5 (8 shots)
  7. Matt Ford 8, 3-2-5 (24 shots)
  8. Rob Klinkhammer 3, 3-1-4 (10 shots)
  9. Jujhar Khaira 5, 1-3-4 (10 shots)
  10. Marco Roy 10, 2-2-4 (12 shots)
  11. C Josh Currie 10, 0-3-3 (17 shots)
  12. David Musil 10, 0-3-3 (7 shots)
  13. Brad Hunt 1, 0-2-2 (5 shots)
  14. Zack Kassian 5, 1-1-2 (11 shots)
  15. Griffin Reinhart 8, 1-1-2 (10 shots)
  16. Kellen Jones 9, 0-2-2 (10 shots)
  17. Dillon Simpson 10, 1-1-2 (5 shots)
  18. Greg Chase 4, 0-1-1 (10 shots)
  19. Kyle Platzer 4, 0-1-1 (7 shots)
  20. Phil McRae 6, 0-1-1 (19 shots)
  21. Martin Gernat 7, 0-1-1 (5 shots)
  22. Kale Kessy 7, 1-0-1 (4 shots)
  23. Nikita Nikitin 8, 0-1-1 (12 shots)
  24. Mitch Moroz 9, 0-1-1 (6 shots)
  25. Laurent Brossoit 7, 2.99 .916
  26. Eetu Laurikainen 3, 3.00 .916

OILERS BLUE ON BLUE

As a visual learner, this is extremely powerful. Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson, Oscar Klefbom, battle river and survive. The rest? Lordy. Darnell Nurse will eventually recover but this shows how curious it is to run Nurse-Schultz so heavily. I believe the young blue played well in his first games, but has faded over time. Here are the cumulative numbers after G19, with Nurse having played 10 games:

nurse through 10

This is a few games after McDavid has been injured, Nurse had played 10 games and Griffin Reinhart 11 games. I received a couple of emails yesterday stating it had been a mistake to recall Nurse and send Reinhart down, wanted to point out a few things. First, Connor McDavid went down during G13, meaning Reinhart would have played five games with McDavid, and Nurse would have played four games while 97 was healthy. Second, during the first 10 games Nurse played in Edmonton, he was in fact superior to Reinhart’s efforts (GR was injured during this time as well, so we need to factor it in).

Not a massive deal, but we should remember when we compare the Nurse and Reinhart numbers now, there are important differences in their handling and the quality of the team during their respective times in Edmonton. I have suggested, and remain convinced, Nurse is and was a superior player to Reinhart. Usage, injury and other factors have us here. Important to include all elements when we discuss these things. I do not believe the Oilers would have iced a superior team if they had kept Reinhart up and left Nurse on the farm. Do you?

Paigin is one of the few eligible draft choices in the Edmonton system who is worth signing and turning pro this summer. If we assume Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, John Marino will stay in their amateur leagues, and that Paigin doesn’t buy out his contract, here is the pool to choose from:

  • D William Lagesson—A solid freshman year at UMass-Amherst has him going in a good direction, as we saw at the WJs. He turns 20 in February, so could sign. Would the Oilers consider turning another lefty blue pro at this time? Seems unlikely.
  • F Tyler Vesel—One guy I think we can hold out some hope for (in terms of landing a pro deal) but it is probably two years away (he is a sophomore at Nebraska—Omaha). Good two-way player, Oilers may have a solid pro here (not necessarily an NHL pro).
  • L Evan Campbell—A member of the famed ‘BCJHL mob’ that has netted Edmonton Jujhar Khaira and little else in the last seven drafts (Kyle Bigos, Kellen Jones, Jujhar Khaira, Evan Campbell, Liam Coughlin—yes I am aware of Anders Nilsson, but the procurement department should not receive credit for that imo). He does not appear to be progressing.
  • G Zach Nagelvoort—Not only he is failing to make progress, he hasn’t played much lately. He did play against the US National Development team last week and won.
  • F Aidan Muir—Big forward is not making progress offensively in year two at Western Michigan. I wonder if Peter Chiarelli ever sits at his desk looking at these numbers and wonders why?
  • G Miroslav Svoboda—having a good season since the trade but no sound reason to bring him over yet.
  • G Keven Bouchard—QMJHL goalies don’t have good numbers, Bouchard is struggling in his new town and unless they calculate save percentage differently (the Q is the most innovative junior league, so I wouldn’t put it past them to be better shot counters) he is a NP.

I think we may see Edmonton sign Marco Roy, Josh Winquist, Josh Currie types to NHL deals, or add NCAA or CHL free agents this summer via NHL deals. Based on these last couple of seasons, bet heavily on Bakersfield signing a few of these players. Edmonton needs to add players, and the procurement department has no obvious signing options from past draft boards.

As we edge closer to the deadline (and then summer) I remain hopeful Peter Chiarelli will use draft picks and cap room to help him bring in defensive help. The idea of trading for a top defender under control faded (for me) when the price for Seth Jones was revealed. If adding a talented but unproven defender comes at a cost of a bona fide No. 1 center, then perhaps PC can get by with two secondary additions to this defense.

That brings me to the next item of business. If we can agree that the Oilers will probably have their first-round pick in play, and that the pick (no matter how good) won’t get you both, what else can they trade? Where is Edmonton’s depth and quality so strong they can afford to take a piece and remain strong? Young left-handed defensemen. The list is absolutely endless! If you include Ziyat Paigin, the list stretches literally for miles.

OILERS LH BLUE PLAYING PRO HOCKEY

  1. Andrej Sekera
  2. Oscar Klefbom
  3. Brandon Davidson
  4. Darnell Nurse
  5. Griffin Reinhart
  6. Brad Hunt
  7. Andrew Ference
  8. Niki Nikitin
  9. David Musil
  10. Jordan Oesterle
  11. Joey Laleggia
  12. Dillon Simpson
  13. Martin Gernat
  14. Ben Betker
  15. Ziyat Paigin

I am not obsessed with lefty-righty (our forum has all the seats for those meetings filled and there is a massive list who want to join), but good grief that is a monster lack of balance. As we venture into the spring and summer, balance will once again take over as a main theme for this blog. Balance may look strange on the day it arrives, because it might mean moving Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom, moving that dandy Brandon Davidson contract or Griffin Reinhart. Peter Chiarelli has very few areas where he can borrow from and remain strong, left-handed defense is a monster on this roster. Someone is moving.

taylor2

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show today, 10 this morning on TSN1260. It is Bell Let’s Talk day, so some of the content will surround the subject and the cause, tune in for that and the usual. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. All-Star Game and what to do about that defense in the final 32 games of the season.
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. He called the Broncos win, I will be looking for his Super Bowl pick, or at least find out which way he is leaning.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN. Where would the Oilers be with an average number of injuries?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

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222 Responses to "MORNINGTOWN"

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  1. Caramel Obvious says:

    delooper,

    Corsi isn’t a possession stat. That’s an unfortunate misnomer. It’s a shot metric. And since shots correlate with winning (obviously) Corsi must also.

    What you’ve imagined (playing keep away) is something that has very little to do with shots or Corsi.

  2. RexLibris says:

    stevezie: I only bring this up to say trading for a defender is about as likely as we thought it.

    And that 1st is going to be worth a lot on draft day.

    Agreed.

    I’m not holding a lot of emotional attachment to the 1st round pick this year because I don’t think Chiarelli sits on this hands even if he has to move it at a bit of a loss so long as whomever he acquires improves the roster significantly (which given where they’ve been since 2007-2008, leaves a wide margin).

    I think he has several options available to pursue.

    Among them, the theorized three-way deal of Eberle, Shattenkirk, Hamonic.

    The discussed Eberle – Vatanen idea.

    A pick for Hamonic or another possible top-pairing defender from a club with either a roster surplus or cap constraint.

  3. blainer says:

    It always continues to amaze me how far behind the management and coaching is in assessing the quality of their players compared to the people on this blog.

    This is now including Chia and Tmc.

    Decisions on playing players such as Fayne Shultz and Hunt are just plain perplexing. Now I get the injuries but even so the way he distributed their ice time was just plain wrong IMO.

    We are often two years ahead of management on how bad a player is before they act on it.

    This just continues to baffle me.

    EDIT :
    When I talk about Fayne I mean it in a way that he should be playing ahead of Shultz. More time at evens and the Pk.

  4. delooper says:

    Caramel Obvious:

    Corsi isn’t a possession stat.That’s an unfortunate misnomer.It’s a shot metric.And since shots correlate with winning (obviously) Corsi must also.

    If Corsi correlates with winning, why does it not correlate with winning? Something seems broken. There needs to be some extra qualifiers because the data does not appear to support the assertion.

  5. dustrock says:

    stevezie: “The idea of trading for a top defender under control faded (for me) when the price for Seth Jones was revealed. If adding a talented but unproven defender comes at a cost of a bona fide No. 1 center…”I maintain we under rate Jones’ value here. I think you could trade Jones for Hamonic, for example. I think if anyone had to add something it would be NYI. I only bring this up to say trading for a defender is about as likely as we thought it. And that 1st is going to be worth a lot on draft day.

    Yeah, would you rate Jones about the same as Klefbom?

    Would you trade Klefbom for anything other than a #1C? Value wise, at least.

  6. stevezie says:

    sliderule:
    Clendeningfrom most accounts is a much poorer and way cheaper replica of Justin Schultz

    Clendening’s AHL numbers are sub-hunt. This bothers me, but it doesn’t get much lower risk than a waiver pickup.

  7. Woodguy says:

    delooper: If Corsi correlates with winning, why does it not correlate with winning?Something seems broken.There needs to be some extra qualifiers because the data does not appear to support the assertion.

    can you link to the data that shows that corsi doesn’t correlate with winning?

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    are you referring to Fayne? I’m not getting the NJ notes

  9. stevezie says:

    dustrock,

    I’d say Jones is at least as valuable as Klefbom, possibly more. He’s got a real nice offensive ceiling.

    Point well made though. Young defenceman are worth a lot in trade. Because they develop so slowly and awkwardly you can often sign them cheap and long (Klefbom, Brodin, Hamonic) so teams love acquiring/keeping them. Their contracts are part of their value.

    Guys like Shattenkirk or Bufflygien do not have this. Their value is closer than it seems.

  10. Snowman says:

    delooper: If Corsi correlates with winning, why does it not correlate with winning?Something seems broken.There needs to be some extra qualifiers because the data does not appear to support the assertion.

    As Woodguy discussed earlier corsi predicts who wins championships. Not games. Short term variations can be mostly explained with PDO. Go back to earlier in the tread. Woodguy has a great post on it.

    In 2013 Chicago won the cup against Boston. Chicago was 3rd in corsi close, Boston was 4th.
    In 2014 LA won the cup against the Rangers. LA was 1st in corsi close. Rangers were 6th.
    in 2015 Chi won against TB. Chicago was 4th. TB was 3rd.

    There seems to be a correlation between corsi over a full season and winning the stanley cup to me.

    Worst team in the finals in the last 3 years was 6th.

  11. stevezie says:

    RexLibris,

    With our excellent centres we can probably afford to trade Eberle for Laine (or whoever). And if we have to, I’m fine with that.

    My Plan A, however, is to keep Eberle and trade the pick. The last few years have left me with a craving for sure things.

  12. rickithebear says:

    15-16:
    Klefbom (10.12)-Fayne (11.36)
    Davidson (9.62) -Sekera (11.44)
    Reinhart(10.56) – Clandening (6.61)

    Since 05-06 HSCA/60
    Pronger 05-06 8.33
    MAB 05-06 8.63
    Staios 05-06 8.96
    Cross 05-06 9.08
    Greene 05-06 9.11
    Spacek 05-06 9.22
    Tarnstrom 05-06 9.30
    Smith 05-06 9.35
    N. Schultz 11-12 9.57
    Davidson 15-16 9.62
    Staios 08-09 9.63
    KLefbom 15-16 10.12
    Smid 06-07 10.13
    MAB 06-07 10.42
    Reinhart 15-16 10.56
    MAB 06-07 10.42
    Petry 10-11 10.81
    Tarnstrom 07-08 10.82
    Grebs 07-08 10.93
    Hejda 06-07 11.09
    Staios 06-07 11.18
    Souray 07-08 11.19
    Souray 09-10 11.30
    Souray 08-09 11.35
    Fayne 15-16 11.36
    Sekera 15-16 11.44

    Take away the 05-06 and 06-07 D!
    N. Schultz 11-12 9.57 Upper 3rd comp
    Davidson 15-16 9.62 Mid 2nd comp
    Staios 08-09 9.63 Upper 3rd comp
    KLefbom 15-16 10.12 top 20 comp
    Reinhart 15-16 10.56 Bot 1st comp
    Petry 10-11 10.81 Upper 3rd comp
    Tarnstrom 07-08 10.82 Bottom 3rd comp
    Grebs 07-08 10.93 upper 3rd comp
    Souray 07-08 11.19 lowerr 1st comp
    Souray 09-10 11.30 Upper 2nd comp
    Souray 08-09 11.35 upper 2nd comp
    Fayne 15-16 11.36 top 10 comp
    Sekera 15-16 11.44 Mid 1st comp

    Take away the d that did not face 1st to mid 2nd scoring comp:

    Davidson 15-16 9.62 Mid 2nd comp
    KLefbom 15-16 10.12 top 20 comp
    Reinhart 15-16 10.56 Bot 1st comp
    Souray 07-08 11.19 lowerr 1st comp
    Souray 09-10 11.30 Upper 2nd comp
    Souray 08-09 11.35 upper 2nd comp
    Fayne 15-16 11.36 top 10 comp
    Sekera 15-16 11.44 Mid 1st comp

    Has our Defence D sucked in the Past?
    Damn straight!

    We are looking at our best collection of Defensive D depth since 05-06!
    Would be nice to have them Play a large portion of the season together!

    We had 3 games were all 5 played!
    CHi @ EDM 4-3 OTL
    @ CHI 4-2L
    @ CAR 4-1 L

    Another 3 were we had 4 players and Klef; Davcidson and Reinhart played
    NJD @ EDM 5-1 W
    Pit @ EDM 2-1L
    PHI @ EDM 4-2 W

    15 more games with Klefbom; Fayne Sekera
    STL @ EDM 4-2 L
    EDM @ DAL 4-2 L
    EDM @ CGY 5-2 W
    EDM @ VCR 2-1 OTW
    LAK @ EDM 3-2 L Non goal?
    EDM @ ANA 4-3 OTW
    EDM @ ARZ 4-1 L
    EDM @ LAK 4-3 L
    EDM @ MIN 4-3 L
    MTL @ EDM 4-3 W
    EDM @ WSH 1-0 L
    EDM @ DET 4-3 OTL
    EDM @ PIT 3-2 SOW
    EDM @ TOR 3-0 L

  13. Ducey says:

    stevezie: Clendening’s AHL numbers are sub-hunt. This bothers me, but it doesn’t get much lower risk than a waiver pickup.

    His numbers are lower the last two years than Hunts, true.

    But he has bounced around all over the place in the last 2 years. He has only played 15 games this year. Last year he played for 4 different teams. Kind of hard to learn the systems and have the confidence to jump into the play.

    He still in only 23 (a yr younger than Davidson). Hunt is 27.

    Barring a calamity, this likely ends Hunt’s Oiler experience.

  14. Water Fire says:

    blainer:
    It always continues to amaze me how far behind the management and coaching is in assessing the quality of their players compared to the people on this blog.

    This is now including Chia and Tmc.

    Decisions on playing players such as Fayne Shultz and Hunt are just plain perplexing. Now I get the injuries but even so the way he distributed their ice time was just plain wrong IMO.

    We are often two years ahead of management on how bad a player is before they act on it.

    This just continues to baffle me.

    EDIT :
    When I talk about Fayne I mean it in a way that he should be playing ahead of Shultz. More time at evens and the Pk.

    I just read the coaches pole on TSN and the consensus had Kane as the best player and the Caps as a clear Cup favorite. Both of these are clearly wrong.

    Kane is the best scorer this year but isn’t the best player on his own team. Washington is riding luck and isn’t nearly as strong as LA or the Hawks as Woodguys numbers showed. They also had Trotz as best coach.

    So these fellows react to the obvious as much as the average fan, looking at the surface of things. Trotz is a good coach, but it isn’t his genius driving the Caps success. Just like Babcocks genius is not going to turn Toronto into a contender. He’ll not be in the way of it like Carlyle or Torts who are coaching out of a 2 decade old playbook, but he’s going to need some players.

  15. delooper says:

    Woodguy: can you link to the data that shows that corsi doesn’t correlate with winning?

    Does anyone have any unbiased statistics on this? I see a lot of anecdotes but not systematic data. If systematic data does not exist I suppose I could generate it.

    Does the proposal below sound fair?

    Let’s count victories in best-of-7 Staney cup rounds vs. the season average corsi for the two teams (is one average higher than the other). Do it over the past 5-10 years or so and see to what extent there is correlation.

    I suspect this proposed test would eliminate one of the primary “corsi generation” phenomena I was talking about: bad teams being allowed to take lots of poor-quality shots. If they’re bad they won’t make it to the playoffs. But still the above test would probably have some use.

  16. stevezie says:

    Oesterle and Joey Legs’ recent stats are great evidence that Hunt would be happier someplace else.

    I think he’s a great AHLer who should have a fine non-NHL career, but he doesn’t make sense here.

    Ducey: Barring a calamity, this likely ends Hunt’s Oiler experience.

    As it should.

  17. Oilers8833 says:

    Hey Lowetide long time reader first time poster. You’re work is outstanding and your articles and the replies section is the first place I go to for Oilers information.

    I’m a firm believer that we need two defencemen to turn the ship and not just one. We need a steady top pairing defenceman that calms the waters (ie. Hamonic) and a power play quarterback (ie. Shattenkirk/Yandle/Byfuglien/Vatanen) etc.

    I’m in the realm of trading RNH is a losing proposition at this point but potentially what needs to be done down the road when we have a better idea on Draisaitl and McDavid….ie thinking it’s a good idea to have a 19 and 20 year old as your top two centers in the western conference and not being batshit crazy.

    My crazy idea however is that we should trade Nurse/2nd or just Nurse if that can get it done for Hamonic. Now while I’m a huge fan of Nurse, at this point Edmonton needs legitimate/proven top 2 NHL defencemen. Trading Nurse gets you that and you still have the assets (ie. Eberle,1st round pick/Yakupov) and cap space on the free agent market to get the power play quarterback you need. Nurse is basically what we would be happy to get in what Hamonic already is…minus the edge. People are going to say trade Eberle and not Nurse, but I don’t think the value of a 6 million dollar winger, no matter how much he has proven to be a 60-70 top RW is as valuable when you take into account a salary cap that isn’t moving for next season. With Davidson stepping up and being a pleasant surprize and also having Reinhart in the wings plus thousands of other LH Defencemen in our system, makes Nurse more expendable than he was 6 months ago not that I want to trade Nurse…love the guy.

    My second move would be to attempt to trade for a player like Vatanen or Shattenkirk. Now this is where I would say that since Vatanen is somewhat unproven (ie. hasn’t established consistency) that you could trade for him at relatively cheap or cheaper cost then Shattenkirk. I think Eberle would be an overpay and with the Ducks being a budget team 6 million for Eberle might be too much to take on. This is where I would say the potential of Yakupov and maybe a 2nd or third rounder would potentially work. Yakupov is on a good deal, has the offensive potential and is young and controllable and a second if you didn’t use it as a sweetener for Hamonic (or give it to Boston as part of the Chiarelli signing), would be a reasonable trade.

    This would leave you with two long term,controllable, right shot defenseman, while still keeping Ebere and RNH and the 1st round pick. The lines could look something like this:

    Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell (resign/1st rnd pick Laine/Puljujarvi/Tkachuk)
    Kassian-McDavid-Eberle
    Pou-RNH-Slepyshev
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pak
    Korpse/Khaira

    Klefbom-Hamonic
    Sekera-Vatanen
    Davidson-Reinhart/Fayne

    Thoughts…ie is this stupid and I’ve been playing NHL 16 too much?

    Sorry about the long winded armchair GM post…..but got to have something to look forward to, other than McDavid coming back and a 10th year in a row of no Whyte Ave celebrations.

  18. Oilspill says:

    He’s going to learn more playing against good players. This is a development building year. Screw the stats watch him play. He’s alright. Haven’t heard any ex Nhl color men mention he should go down. They watch him.

    leadfarmer:
    So yet another stat showing Nurse absolutely drowning out there.He really needs to be sent down, and like 20 games ago.

  19. Woodguy says:

    delooper: Does anyone have any unbiased statistics on this?I see a lot of anecdotes but not systematic data.If systematic data does not exist I suppose I could generate it.

    Does the proposal below sound fair?

    Let’s count victories in best-of-7 Staney cup rounds vs. the season average corsi for the two teams (is one average higher than the other). Do it over the past 5-10 years or so and see to what extent there is correlation.

    I suspect this proposed test would eliminate one of the primary “corsi generation” phenomena I was talking about: bad teams being allowed to take lots of poor-quality shots.If they’re bad they won’t make it to the playoffs.But still the above test would probably have some use.

    pick on.net has the data. use score adjusted corsi

    report back

    this isn”t a real correlation measurement though.

    I’ll dig those up later (out with family)

  20. Lowetide says:

    Oilers8833:
    Hey Lowetide long time reader first time poster. You’re work is outstanding and your articles and the replies section is the first place I go to for Oilers information.

    I’m a firm believer that we need two defencemen to turn the ship and not just one. We need a steady top pairing defenceman that calms the waters (ie. Hamonic) and a power play quarterback (ie. Shattenkirk/Yandle/Byfuglien/Vatanen) etc.

    I’m in the realm of trading RNH is a losing proposition at this point but potentially what needs to be done down the road when we have a better idea on Draisaitl and McDavid….ie thinking it’s a good idea to have a 19 and 20 year old as your top two centers in the western conference and not being batshit crazy.

    My crazy idea however is that we should trade Nurse/2nd or just Nurse if that can get it done for Hamonic. Now while I’m a huge fan of Nurse, at this point Edmonton needs legitimate/proven top 2 NHL defencemen. Trading Nurse gets you that and you still have the assets (ie. Eberle,1st round pick/Yakupov) and cap space on the free agent market to get the power play quarterback you need.Nurse is basically what we would be happy to get in what Hamonic already is…minus the edge. People are going to say trade Eberle and not Nurse, but I don’t think the value of a 6 million dollar winger, no matter how much he has proven to be a 60-70 top RW is as valuable when you take into account a salary cap that isn’t moving for next season. With Davidson stepping up and being a pleasant surprize and also having Reinhart in the wings plus thousands of other LH Defencemen in our system, makes Nurse more expendable than he was 6 months ago not that I want to trade Nurse…love the guy.

    My second move would be to attempt to trade for a player like Vatanen or Shattenkirk. Now this is where I would say that since Vatanen is somewhatunproven (ie. hasn’t established consistency) that you could trade for him at relatively cheap or cheaper cost then Shattenkirk. I think Eberle would be an overpay and with the Ducks being a budget team 6 million for Eberle might be too much to take on. This is where I would say the potential of Yakupov and maybe a 2nd or third rounder would potentially work. Yakupov is on a good deal, has the offensive potential and is young and controllable and a second if you didn’t use it as a sweetener for Hamonic (or give it to Boston as part of the Chiarelli signing), would be a reasonable trade.

    This would leave you with two long term,controllable, right shot defenseman, while still keeping Ebere and RNH and the 1st round pick. The lines could look something like this:

    Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell (resign/1st rnd pick Laine/Puljujarvi/Tkachuk)
    Kassian-McDavid-Eberle
    Pou-RNH-Slepyshev
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pak
    Korpse/Khaira

    Klefbom-Hamonic
    Sekera-Vatanen
    Davidson-Reinhart/Fayne

    Thoughts…ie is this stupid and I’ve been playing NHL 16 too much?

    Sorry about the long winded armchair GM post…..but got to have something to look forward to, other than McDavid coming back and a 10th year in a row of no Whyte Ave celebrations.

    Welcome! I agree Nuge may be dealt down the line, but that is for another day and probably cap related in about 2019. Nurse for Hamonic I would not do, because we don’t know if Nurse is going to be very good, but I agree completely with your general line of thinking.

  21. G Money says:

    delooper: Does anyone have any unbiased statistics on this? I see a lot of anecdotes but not systematic data. If systematic data does not exist I suppose I could generate it.

    Google’s your friend.

    TONS of systematic studies. TONS. Literally hundreds. Ten years worth. All manner of formal statistical tests, many of which exceed my modest knowledge (which I can say without hubris is well beyond layman level).

    There is no excuse for making declarations about the validity of shot metrics without doing this basic research.

  22. GCW_69 says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    delooper,

    Corsi isn’t a possession stat.That’s an unfortunate misnomer.It’s a shot metric.And since shots correlate with winning (obviously) Corsi must also.

    What you’ve imagined (playing keep away) is something that has very little to do with shots or Corsi.

    That seems to gloss over the argument that in order to shoot the puck one must first possess it.

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