TWANGY, THREE-CHORD HONK

How many difference makers does an NHL team really need? Seriously. You need a quality starter in net, four defensemen who can really play, three centers and enough wingers to ice two scoring lines. Sound right? The rest are sixes and sevens and nines. Fair?

OIL PROJECTED 16-17

There are two new names on this depth chart, and they are substantial. Can we agree, that given this lineup, and typical, run of the mill ‘replacement level’ players at the other spots, this team should contend for a playoff position? I think that is fair.

In yesterday’s comments thread, the idea of trading Darnell Nurse for an immediate upgrade (say Faulk) was met with a great deal of resistance—and I am not sure why. That kind of trade, often called the three-for-one, is exactly what Peter Chiarelli should be looking for this summer. I doubt Nurse is part of any trade, but others may be, some of them universal favorites.

If you could trade this year’s first round pick, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart for Faulk and Hamonic, would you? I think that is the kind of drastic action required by Chiarelli before fall.

TRADE PIECES

If we use that roster above as a template, here is my list—greater to lesser—of assets Peter Chiarelli should at least consider trading. Note: I am not excluding the idea of trading Jordan Eberle, only suggesting the Oilers may be best served by trading prospects and less established players, for actual NHL players.

  1. 2016 first round selection (I assume top five overall)
  2. Darnell Nurse
  3. Brandon Davidson
  4. Mark Fayne
  5. Matt Hendricks
  6. Anton Slepyshev
  7. Griffin Reinhart
  8. Laurent Brossoit
  9. Ziyat Paigin

If you see anyone on this list that makes you wince, or have decided that an Eberle or a Yakupov or even a Nuge trade is the hill you die on, I urge you to reconsider. I think the best plan of action is to come out of the summer with a roster like the one above, and if trading Nuge gets you Faulk and you can sign a (very) capable two-way center, then make it so.

That said, I think Chiarelli should be able to add enough on defense without dealing Eberle, Nuge, Yakupov or Nurse. That first-round pick should be in play. Seriously.

MCDAVID’S RETURN

  • Connor McDavid: “The whole point of this was kind of to take some contact, I was cleared for contact right before the All-Star break, I didn’t have a chance to that with the guys (in Edmonton) so it’s a good chance down here to take some bumps and really battle hard and test it out and see how it feels.” Source

Well, there you go. Hammer Chiarelli until midnight, but that was the time line. As someone who saw Mike Grier, Ryan Smyth and others play through some pretty substantial injuries (I actually heard Grier scream in pain when his shoulder was knocked out of place, he returned to the bench, had it ‘re-set’ in time for the next shift), part of me is pleased with this kind of over-patience. As a fan I am mad as hell, but McDavid is a teenager and the next decade is fairly important!

McDavid has 32 more games, I expect he will score around 32 points. Can the Oilers match the total? They will need great goaltending, a healthy defense, but should have two scoring lines. The trade deadline looms, but Calgary is just two points ahead of Edmonton and beating them is a big damned deal for me. Can’t wait to see McDavid back on the ice.

CHL TOP PROSPECTS

Always a fun game, I was impressed by several prospects (Dubois, McLeod, Laberge, Hart) and look forward to reading thoughts on the game from online scouts. Gents worth a follow (if you are interested) are Steve Kournianos, Corey Pronman and Brendan Ross.

TRADE SOON?

betker photo by lisa brown

Photo by Lisa Brown (Ben Betker)

The Oilers claimed Adam Clendening and sent Ben Betker to Norfolk during the break, suggesting Brad Hunt will be staying in the minors. Edmonton will recall Zack Kassian and possibly Griffin Reinhart after the break, but also have to activate Connor McDavid and Brandon Davidson. It would seem there is a math issue ahead, and one way to deal with it is a trade.

I would think the Oilers brought Clendening in to play, so here is a first lash at the pairings for games in the coming week:

  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Davison—Schultz
  • Nurse—Clendening

With Gryba as the extra man, Reinhart in the minors. I don’t know when Klefbom is going to return, but one hopes it will be before the deadline. I would guess Peter Chiarelli would like to run February locked and loaded, full throttle, balls out, Stones Star Star leading up to the deadline. My goodness that defensive alignment needs Oscar.

JOHANSSON

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy shoe, lots of fun guests as we head toward the last weekend of January (I don’t know why, but this January has been so damned long). TSN1260 at 10, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Milos, No Country for Old Men whose teams make the playoffs.
  • Dustin Nielson, TSN 1260. We chat about prospects, Raptors, Habs, and his time at hfboards when I was moderator. Should be fun!
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. We will talk about the Top Prospects Game, who impressed and who did not impress.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. We will talk about McDavid’s return, the deadline, and how to improve the defense—that is a subject that gets little play on radio and online.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Friday, bitches!

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193 Responses to "TWANGY, THREE-CHORD HONK"

  1. square_wheels says:

    “If you could trade this year’s first round pick, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart for Faulk and Hamonic, would you? I think that is the kind of drastic action required by Chiarelli before fall.”

    If Chia isn’t thinking along these lines I will be kicking kittens all summer.

    It’s high time we stopped acting like Gollum…..collecting shiny things is clearly not working.

  2. frjohnk says:

    “In yesterday’s comments thread, the idea of trading Darnell Nurse for an immediate upgrade (say Faulk) was met with a great deal of resistance—and I am not sure why. That kind of trade, often called the three-for-one, is exactly what Peter Chiarelli should be looking for this summer. I doubt Nurse is part of any trade, but others may be, some of them universal favorites.

    If you could trade this year’s first round pick, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart for Faulk and Hamonic, would you? I think that is the kind of drastic action required by Chiarelli before fall.”

    I think the pick would have to be 1st overall. Carolina needs a number 1 center. Heck, they don’t even have a number 2 if E Staal leaves for UFA.

    Faulk checks off all the boxes and then some. Fantastic contract at $4.8M. Is one of the elite number 1 D men in the game….and is RHD!!!!

    I think the pick would have to be 1st overall. Carolina needs a number 1 center. Heck, they don’t even have a number 2 if E Staal leaves for UFA. They are loaded on the backend for prospects.

    Would we trade Draisaitl for Faulk?

    something to ponder. If we want McDavid to have an elite D man, we are going to need to give up something really good.

  3. RPG says:

    I came across his article this morning. Crazy what goes on behind the scenes of back to back games on the road. This is a very good article. http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/01/28/washington-capitals-back-back-games-behind-scenes-sports-illustrated-feature-story

  4. Rondo says:

    Mike McLeod looks fast against elite players makes you wonder why he does not have more points in the OHL. I like Dubois more than McLeod.

  5. VvV says:

    If you are trading that 1st i’d try to pull the trigger soon if possible, while the Oilers are in last place, assuming they don’t win lottery, if they do then you may get undervalue for it. Also a smart drafter in Detroit once said, “you don’t trade first round draft picks.” So it best be a huge return,

    Zayit Pagin has pretty much no value right now to any other team so I think that is just a waste of a potential substantial prospect.

    Laurent Brossoit = no, Oilers are finally developing a goalie, no deal.

    Darnell, that just hurts, I would make the trade but not for Hamonic

  6. Snowman says:

    I was one of the people who yesterday was against trading Nurse. Don’t think I said it but I definitely thought it. If you can somehow get Faulk and Hamonic… I’d be just fine with that. I’d cringe everytime Mcdavid went into a corner with Nurse for the next 15 years but I’d be ok with it.

    Today… still not crazy about it but potential be damned I want to cheer for a good hockey team again someday. Last year I was worried about the crazy trade. This year I just want it to happen. I’m ready for it. Even if it’s Nuge (God I hope it’s not Nuge).

    Time to get better.

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great read LT: I’m worried, because I seem to be on the same page as you are…Take the players mentioned and I figure about $20MM will be spent on different players next year, to get to a balanced “core” that can be built around (bye-bye one Steve Austin, and some from your list)

    – Man that is got to be one of the worst OIL D lineups iced in the last few years, and that says a lot:
    Sekera—Fayne (Sekera half/one line too high, Fayne 1-2 lines too high)
    Davison—Schultz (Davidson one line too high, Jultz one line too high and fading)
    Nurse—Clendening (Neither have a home as NHL D, so put them together what could go wrong)

  8. jm363561 says:

    Best comments I have read all year on how to manage the team’s assets and upgrade now. For me you can add one of Yak or Ebs, but I would keep Brossoit. I really like Davidson, and would hope to keep Nurse but they can go for the right return. There is too high a chance Brossoit could be sensational.

  9. slopitch says:

    There are very few scenarios where Id move Nurse and getting Faulk would be one of the few. I would trade Nurse, the 1st, + for Faulk and Hamonic because Hamonic can replace some of the intangibles that Nurse brings. I still believe Nurse is a top pairing future stud though. His size and drive will make him the kind of guy this team desperately needs him to be.

    LT that lineup you suggested would be damn near cup contender let alone playoff contender.

    First line is gonna be 4-97-29 for foreseeable future. Although seeing Eberle with McDavid would be fun.

  10. dustrock says:

    LT didn’t get a chance to watch the Prospects Game but obviously interested in the d-men, including Chychrun and Sergachev.

    Saw a tweet from Kournianos this morning with a screen cap showing Chychrun seeing a possible 2-on-1 developing and he yells at one of the wingers to cover up the middle.

    That’s the kind of awareness that’s nice to see.

    If Matthews/Tkachuk/Pulju/Laine are gone and the Oilers pick 5, figure they have to pick Chychrun.

    If they’re picking #3 or 4, it will be interesting.

  11. dustrock says:

    I would trade Draisaitl for Faulk.

    God that hurts to type.

  12. hunter1909 says:

    Please stop trading Nurse. If only because they appear to be screwing his development up.

    The last thing Oilers need is more ex-Oilers – hating the team’s guts.

  13. G Money says:

    Unless you have the specific 1D in mind (there’s only six or seven legit 1D in the whole league) that you can build a champion around and is available by trade:

    STOP BUILDING ROSTERS BASED ON A 1D MODEL.

    The Oilers are NOT getting a 1D, and building a roster based that assumes you have prime-Chara, prime-Doughty, or prime-Keith does not work.

    What the Oilers do have is three elite C. You can build a champion without a 1D if you have 3 elite centres.

    Trade one of Nuge, McDavid, or Draisaitl and you DON’T get one of those six or seven top notch defensemen back, and what you’ve built is a roster that will forever make the playoffs and will never be a contender.

    Picking the right build strategy is critical to whether this team moves long-term up 10 spots (to perennial playoff contention) or up 20 spots (to perennial championship contention).

    Choose wisely.

  14. vinotintazo says:

    G Money: Unless you have the specific 1D in mind (there’s only six or seven legit 1D in the whole league) that you can build a champion around and is available by trade:

    but Cgy has two #1 Ds and look at them…

  15. Caramel Obvious says:

    I endorse the lowetide plan.

    That said, I’d rather trade Eberle than a high first round pick and replace him with a mid range veteran free agent scorer, someone like Lee Stempniak (low end) or Radim Vrbata (high end), or someone in between. Either way you get production for less money, less commitment, and get to keep the cheap future star.

    Guys like Stempniak are where the value is in free agency.

  16. vinotintazo says:

    Caramel Obvious: Stempniak

    for every Stempniak… you get one Semin,Arcobello, Raymond…

  17. OF17 says:

    Problem is I don’t see Faulk being available. One of the best D in the league, won’t turn 25 until 2017, and locked down for pennies for four more years? Only way he gets moved is if he wants out IMO. Nurse + or the 2016 1st + won’t be enough otherwise.

    If that pick is top 3, only a king’s ransom makes sense. I value it more highly than Nurse, and I really like Nurse. Problem is I don’t think any team will be interested in parting with the necessary king’s ransom, as so many recent drafts have shown.

  18. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    In that model however, you do need at least 3 2/3 guys and likely 2 predictable 4/5 guys.

    Klef, Sekera are the 2/3.
    Davidson a 4
    Nurse is still too unpredictable so I slot him at 5.
    We’re still short, have been for well over a decade and now we’re getting delirious and impatient.

  19. GXL says:

    Years ago a team called the Hartford Whalers traded away a 21 year old defenceman who had some ups and downs in his first two season for a veteran player who could help them out in the immediate future. I’d bet that organization wished it never traded Chris Pronger away for a quick fix in Brendan Shanahan (not to take anything away from Shanny’s contribution to hockey).

    I see a similar deal if we traded Nurse away. He has all the tools and is a smart fellow that has learned the game through fire (20 minutes a night as a 20 year old!). Nurse should be a game stopper in any trade unless McDavid or Ekblad is coming back.

    GXL

  20. Aitch says:

    Trading any of the former 1st rounders is tough to swallow for many fans. We’ve been told that these are the guys to bring us out of the shadows and into the spotlight for years now. And if you look at each of them on their own merits they appear to be the right building blocks. But the fact remains, it doesn’t matter who the team trades as long as their are more wins than loses on the other side of the deal and the deal itself isn’t seen as a lose (a la the Satan deal.) I betcha prior to the Pronger deal with St. Lou, that if you asked the majority of Oilers fans if they were in favour of trading Eric Brewer, you would’ve been met with a big “hell no!”

    At the end of the day though, you ‘re right. We have to look at the potential of young players as trading assets if we want to move things forward. Luckily, (or unluckily depending on who you talk to) Chia is not against moving a significant building block if he feels the end result will make the team better.

    A few years ago, I honestly thought the team would only start to compete once the trio of Schultz, Klefbom and Marincin had established themselves. Solid, all-around defencemen are that important in today’s NHL. Now, we might be pinning our hopes to Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart for the long-term. But if one of them and a few other pieces can be used to speed up that development of the team as a whole, it needs to be done.

    I actually like the suggestion made by James Tanner over at hockeybuzz in his most recent article. Trade the 1st this year for a top-pairing d-man before the rest of the league realizes that this team is actually a lot better (healthy) on paper than it has performed on ice. His argument for this, injuries and PDO. Once both start to normalize the league is going to wake up to this team and be legitimately afraid.

  21. doritogrande says:

    To go back to the top prospects game last night, their interview with the Vancouver exec had him mentioning approximately 15 players they identified with Top-6 F/Top-4 D talent.

    LT, we constantly go back to the notion of Gare Joyce’s “Top-10s” with that being the criteria. I know its early, but is Vancouver out to lunch with their 15 Top-10s? I think last year you flagged 11, and that was supposed to be a great year.

  22. HiddenDarts says:

    I absolutely agree that anything should be on the table, but in Nurse’s case specifically, I would need an EXTREMELY good player coming back. This is because I see him as an extremely good prospect. As close to a CFP that there is currently in the NHL.

    Not to mention that if you get a “number 2ish” defenseman back for him and you’re Chia, you are probably risking that it’s your “Milbury Moment”, and nobody in GM circles wants one of those.

    Oh, and LT, thanks to you and Lt. Eric for playing Laura Branigan’s “Gloria” on your show the other day. Since I listened to the podcast, it has been in my brain constantly. It is evil, evil stuff.

    You will pay for this!!! 🙂

  23. vinotintazo says:

    2016 first round selection (I assume top five overall)
    Darnell Nurse
    Brandon Davidson
    Mark Fayne
    Matt Hendricks
    Anton Slepyshev
    Griffin Reinhart
    Laurent Brossoit
    Ziyat Paigin

    I would add Khaira to that list…

  24. dustrock says:

    HiddenDarts: I absolutely agree that anything should be on the table, but in Nurse’s case specifically, I would need an EXTREMELY good player coming back. This is because I see him as an extremely good prospect. As close to a CFP that there is currently in the NHL. Not to mention that if you get a “number 2ish” defenseman back for him and you’re Chia, you are probably risking that it’s your “Milbury Moment”, and nobody in GM circles wants one of those.Oh, and LT, thanks to you and Lt. Eric for playing Laura Branigan’s “Gloria” on your show the other day. Since I listened to the podcast, it has been in my brain constantly. It is evil, evil stuff.You will pay for this!!!

    One can hope Nurse will be Pronger’s equal defensively, but I can’t ever see it happening offensively.

    I’m trying to understand what people want to do here.

    – Add 2 veteran high-end defencemen
    – but don’t trade Hall, Eberle or RNH. Or Draisaitl.
    – or Nurse or Davidson or Klefbom
    – or the 2016 1st
    – maybe try to sign a UFA like Byfuglien
    – but don’t overpay per year or term.

    Okay, good luck then. This isn’t Settlers of Catan, you can’t trade Schultz, Fayne and Gryba for Shattenkirk.

  25. LostBoy says:

    The Faulk-like add, whoever it (hopefully) turns out to be, is the critical one.

    Hamonic is an excellent defenseman, and sure, add him if at all possible, but the Oilers have two similar(ish) players in waiting, in Klefbom and Nurse. They have nothing, zero, nada, in the way of developing true offensive D.

    It’s almost tragic that a team with this ridiculous an assemblage of top-of-the-draft young forwards is bottom of the league in scoring from the D. Nothing else they could add right now would make as much difference as a potential 50 point D-man. It’s the only thing I’d give up a core piece for.

  26. square_wheels says:

    dustrock,

    Insert this into Wikipedia’s definition of insanity, spot on.

  27. dustrock says:

    G Money: Unless you have the specific 1D in mind (there’s only six or seven legit 1D in the whole league) that you can build a champion around and is available by trade:STOP BUILDING ROSTERS BASED ON A 1D MODEL.The Oilers are NOT getting a 1D, and building a roster based that assumes you have prime-Chara, prime-Doughty, or prime-Keith does not work.What the Oilers do have is three elite C. You can build a champion without a 1D if you have 3 elite centres.Trade one of Nuge, McDavid, or Draisaitl and you DON’T get one of those six or seven top notch defensemen back, and what you’ve built is a roster that will forever make the playoffs and will never be a contender.Picking the right build strategy is critical to whether this team moves long-term up 10 spots (to perennial playoff contention) or up 20 spots (to perennial championship contention). Choose wisely.

    What’s the last team to win the Cup without a #1 d-man? Carolina I guess.

    Even if you don’t want a #1 d-man, simply a very skilled d-man, what’s the acquisition cost on that? Nashville wanted RNH for Jones? Wow. Jones isn’t close to a #1 d-man.

  28. who says:

    G Money,

    I agree. I think 4 solid, young, top 4 guys is the way to go. In a year or two one or more may develop into a true #1. The Oilers have a solid core of left dmen in place right now. My depth chart would be Klef, Sek, Davidson, Nurse, Reinhart. That is based on their play this season. Nurse could move up this chart rapidly in the next 2 years. I think one easy step to balancing out the righty, lefty thing is to trade one of these guys for a right dman of similar age and skill set. Maybe Klefbom for Hamonic or Nurse for Trouba, something like that. The hard part will be acquiring a second right dman for a forward. I think Eberle is the most tradeable, if Hopkins and Hall are off the table, but his contract may make it difficult to get a top 4 guy. I am not crazy about trading the pick because this roster is going to get more expensive every year and they are going to need some cheaper, young skilled players. Trading one of our 6 million dollar men also leaves us cap space to sign whatever dman they acquire through trade or free agency.

  29. speeds says:

    Lowetide, from the article:
    That said, I think Chiarelli should be able to add enough on defense without dealing Eberle, Nuge, Yakupov or Nurse. That first-round pick should be in play. Seriously.

    Maybe, but it’s worth asking whether they should move the pick before Eberle, if that’s the choice. The pick will be under team control for 7 years, way cheaper vs. Eberle, a UFA in 3 years.

  30. flyfish1168 says:

    Hi LT, I to like that list of player mix and would believe we would have a chance of seeing playoff hockey. My concern would be depth when injuries happen. It’s to difficult to go all season without a couple of significant injuries. Who would be our depth players that can move up and down the line up? We would also need depth in the AHL just to be ready.

  31. maxwell_mischief says:

    never forget the Grier shoulder scream. My mom’s favorite all time Oiler… she said she liked him because he played with determination and had mammoth quads… now that I am an adult I think I get what she was getting at, and it disturbs me.

    Here’s my thing- say the OIlers are picking at 4, and it goes Matthews, Puljajaarvi, Laine (in any order), then I would be happy to deal out that 4 pick. Lots of great prospects available still, but digestible if the return is a significant piece that moves the group forward. IF Puljajaarvi or Laine are available, I hope for Nuge or Ebs or Nurse to be the asset heading out. I love those finns, and they are EXACTLY what would be perfect instead of Eberle. Big boys, going to be bigger men. Then you are talking real real danger with Mcdavid and Hall and Drai and (Finn) and Yak. All of them aggressive and competitive and hard to play against (Yak still needs this to be every night- but has the goods). As skilled as Ebs is, he is easy to push around and plays perimeter. Nuge is amazing, but I would take a big man over him to get a D – and I love the idea of Helm at 3C.

  32. JDï™ says:

    Bob McKenzie Verified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

    Raffi Torres on waivers.

  33. G Money says:

    dustrock: What’s the last team to win the Cup without a #1 d-man? Carolina I guess.
    Even if you don’t want a #1 d-man, simply a very skilled d-man, what’s the acquisition cost on that? Nashville wanted RNH for Jones? Wow. Jones isn’t close to a #1 d-man.

    Unsurprisingly, Pittsburgh’s one Stanley Cup was without a 1D either. (Some say they had Letang, but as has been pointed out, he was a rookie playing 5D ice time. He was FAR from a 1D at that point, though he was a solid young player. Kind of what the Oilers could have if they had Nurse playing on the third pairing).

    Here’s the thing: you could build the best team in the world and there’s no guarantee you will win a Cup.

    Somebody else may have a better team. (See: Battle of Alberta, 1980s)

    Injuries or pure bad luck might also play a part.

    All you can do is build a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and hope the cards fall your direction. You can do that with three elite C. It’s not done very often because for many teams it’s hard to get even one elite C.

    We have three of them.

    Failing to use that will be catastrophically stupid.

    Trading that incredible competitive advantage away in order to match what every other OK team has is a recipe for mediocrity.

    So if the Oilers try to plan around building a contender using a 1D model – which they can fulfill only through a gigantic streak of dumb luck at this point – they will wait until either Nurse develops into one (unlikely), or they’ll just simply miss McDavid’s window.

  34. G Money says:

    who,

    Agree.

    Get one Top 4 D man, then wait a while and hope the youngsters (Nurse especially, Reinhart ideally) mature into a strong enough core (Sekera, Klefbom, New Guy, Nurse, Davidson, Reinhart, who knows what Fayte has in store for Fayne).

    Or get two Top 4 D men, and you don’t have to wait (Sek, Klef, New Guy, New Guy, Nurse, Davidson, Reinhart), the window starts now. The question of course is what you have to give up to get two Top 4 D now.

  35. G Money says:

    dustrock: – Add 2 veteran high-end defencemen
    – but don’t trade Hall, Eberle or RNH. Or Draisaitl.
    – or Nurse or Davidson or Klefbom
    – or the 2016 1st
    – maybe try to sign a UFA like Byfuglien
    – but don’t overpay per year or term.

    – Add at least one, preferably two Top 4 D.

    – Don’t trade Hall, RNH, Drai, McDavid, Sekera, Nurse, or Klefbom.

    – The others should be on the table

    – As should the 2016 1st

    – UFA is fine, as is offer sheet. UFA means an overpay, either year or term or both.

  36. vesci says:

    speeds: Maybe, but it’s worth asking whether they should move the pick before Eberle, if that’s the choice.The pick will be under team control for 7 years, way cheaper vs. Eberle, a UFA in 3 years.

    I think Eberle before the first is the way to go.

    Also, I really like Nurse, but if you can get a Hamonic for him and you believe that Nurse’s upside is as a good to great all around player aren’t you just speeding up the team development process without giving up much upside? Further, any upside you might be giving up has to be balanced against any downside risk you are also foregoing.

  37. Pajamah says:

    JDï™:
    Bob McKenzie Verified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

    Raffi Torres on waivers.

    Bruce McCurdy @BruceMcCurdy

    So, should the Oilers put in a ……ah fuck, who am I kidding? Of course they should!!

    *Not a real tweet*

  38. G Money says:

    vinotintazo: but Cgy has two #1 Ds and look at them…

    Get with the program, man!

    THREE #1D. Not two, THREE!

    You clearly have not read your Fan’s Guide to the Calgary Falmes(tm) (published by the Idiot’s Guide to… people, natch)

  39. JDï™ says:

    Pajamah: Of course they should!!

    Well if they could somehow get him on to the Condors’ lineup, at least we could rest easy knowing he wouldn’t be running the likes of Joey Leggs or Oesterle down there.

  40. Pajamah says:

    JDï™: Well if they could somehow get him on to the Condors’ lineup, at least we could rest easy knowing he wouldn’t be running the likes of Joey Leggs or Oesterle down there.

    Need moar truculence.

    Atleast with Raffi on the Oilers again, Hallsy can show him how much our local cocaine has improved in the last 10 years

    Or atleast that’s what Bruce McCurdy is saying

    *He’s still saying no such thing*

  41. G Money says:

    vesci,

    The issue that I have with trading e.g. Nurse for Hamonic is that, though (as a result of looking at him as a trade target) I’ve become a big fan of Hamonic – the reality is that while he is unquestionably an all-around top pairing guy, he is not a dominant 1D.

    So now you have Sek-Ham-Klef as your top 3 guys in the short term, which is unquestionably an upgrade in the short term, but in the longer term, you’re still left with looking for a top notch guy to fill that fourth spot at a level commensurate with where most expect Nurse to get to within a couple of years.

    If you know where that next guy is coming from (for example, if Chia has deals in the works where he can get, say, two of Hamonic, Shattenkirk, Vatanen, Big Buff), then you only need to keep two of [Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse]. One of them becomes expendable, and yeah, maybe Nurse has the most trade value.

    But if you’re only bringing in one new guy, then trading Nurse means you’re creating a weakness to fill a weakness, which to my mind is more motion than progress.

  42. Raider Jesse says:

    I would absolutely trade Nurse in a package of you got Faulk back. Absolutely.

  43. RexLibris says:

    G Money: Get with the program, man!

    THREE #1D.Not two, THREE!

    You clearly have not read your Fan’s Guide to the Calgary Falmes(tm) (published by the Idiot’s Guide to… people, natch)

    Don’t forget the next Patrick Kane in Gaudreau. (That kid is exceptional, but the comparisons still raise an eyebrow).

    Speaking of which, still nothing on the contract extension talks there.

    Intriguing. Makes me wonder if he’s looking at a bridge deal to get to FA as quickly as possible. Also makes me wonder what the offer sheet market would be for a player like him.

  44. alice13 says:

    I think the reason you don’t trade Nurse is he’s both cheap and hard to replace (isn’t all this fuss about trying to pry a defenceman out of somebody?)

    If a Faulk is what is needed, then it’s an Eberle that has to be moved, because there’s 12 men on that “balance” lineup, and one of them will be getting $10M. You don’t keep Nurse because he’s shiny, it’s because he’s reasonable value for now, and will be an in-house replacement for Andrej down the road, as somebody mentioned yesterday. Hoping to find Sekera’s replacement via free agency is just…. well, hopeful. And tough to fit into a salary structure with a superstar in it.

    Fine with moving the first, fine with moving quality. Not comfortable – yet – with moving D out the door when it’s been the biggest hole and problem to fill.

  45. PhrankLee says:

    dustrock: I’m trying to understand what people want to do here.
    – Add 2 veteran high-end defencemen
    – but don’t trade Hall, Eberle or RNH. Or Draisaitl.
    – or Nurse or Davidson or Klefbom
    – or the 2016 1st
    – maybe try to sign a UFA like Byfuglien
    – but don’t overpay per year or term.

    – Add 2 veteran high-end defencemen
    – but don’t trade Hall or RNH. Or Draisaitl.
    – or Nurse or Klefbom
    – maybe try to sign a UFA like Byfuglien
    – but don’t overpay in term.

    This is my “ftfy”

  46. vinotintazo says:

    G Money,

    Hamilton is another 1D !… hartley just hates him. I mean they have the best d-corps in the league!

    ok i’ll stop now.

  47. vesci says:

    G Money,

    G Money,

    I think we are on the same page. I was looking at answering a portion of LT’s question: ” If you could trade this year’s first round pick, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart for Faulk and Hamonic, would you?”
    I agree you need to get two D or its more of a lateral move, but at some point now has to be important.
    I am also a basketball fan and I look at what the Celtics did a few years back when they gave up some youth and a top 5 draft pick in the same summer to land both Ray Allen and Garnett to go with Pierce and some other serviceable pieces. Although maybe not the best example as Allen and Garnett were older than ideal at the time, I think if you want to turn north in a meaningful way you may have to give up some of the future and its potential.
    I think myself and others sometimes fall in love too much with potential and the future and forget the value of what is known and the present.

  48. Oilers8833 says:

    I agree that we don’t want to trade players who could potentially be a franchise cornerstone (ie. Darnell Nurse) but really guys at some point we can’t just trade magic beans for good players. As it has been stated many times here you are not going to get the (Weber’s/Doughty’s/Keith’s/Subban’s/ Hedman’s….etc) for anything short of Taylor Hall or Connor McDavid.

    With that said, as much as love a player like Darnell Nurse, he won’t reach his potential for at LEAST another 2-3 years. I’m sorry but the Oilers don’t have that long to wait (ie. end of McDavids ELC). Realistically while nobody wants to trade Nurse for Hamonic, I do that trade tomorrow. Hamonic right now is a proven number 2 defenceman who can impact our team TODAY. Now if you are going to do that you absolutely need to also get an offensive defenceman.

    By trading Nurse (and even that may not be enough) and say a second or third round pick you still have assets such as Yakupov/Eberle/1st round pick etc..) to get a powerplay quarterback. Now I don’t know if that’s Shattenkirk, Faulk …..whoever (ie. 1st round pick/Yakupov for Faulk) that’s for Chiarelli to figure out.

    All I know is if we ever want to turn the dial here we need to get established/proven NHL defensemen and not continually be waiting on our defensive prospects to ripen.

    On a side note last time I checked good GM’s trade from strength and I believe that with the maturation of Davidson and the potential of Reinhart (though not as good a prospect as Nurse) we have about 2 million LH shot D that I think would make Darnell Nurse a realistic trade chip. Just to clarify I’m a huge fan of Nurse, I just think that with Davidson growing like he has this year and the 80 other LH D in our system this should be an avenue that Chia explores.

  49. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money:
    vesci,

    The issue that I have with trading e.g. Nurse for Hamonic is that, though (as a result of looking at him as a trade target) I’ve become a big fan of Hamonic – the reality is that while he is unquestionably an all-around top pairing guy, he is not a dominant 1D.

    So now you have Sek-Ham-Klef as your top 3 guys in the short term, which is unquestionably an upgrade in the short term, but in the longer term, you’re still left with looking for a top notch guy to fill that fourth spot at a level commensurate with where most expect Nurse to get to within a couple of years.

    If you know where that next guy is coming from (for example, if Chia has deals in the works where he can get, say, two of Hamonic, Shattenkirk, Vatanen, Big Buff), then you only need to keep two of [Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse].One of them becomes expendable, and yeah, maybe Nurse has the most trade value.

    But if you’re only bringing in one new guy, then trading Nurse means you’re creating a weakness to fill a weakness, which to my mind is more motion than progress.

    Question for you:

    Would you rather have a dominant 1D (say Subban) at $9million or a pretty good 1D at just under $4million?

    Because while I like Hamonic, what I especially like is his contract… it gives me hope that we will be able to ice a competent D corps while hanging on to all of our shiny forwards.

  50. Pajamah says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Question for you:

    Would you rather have a dominant 1D (say Subban) at $9million or a pretty good 1D at just under $4million?

    Because while I like Hamonic, what I especially like is his contract… it gives me hope that we will be able to ice a competent D corps while hanging on to all of our shiny forwards.

    The issue at hand is Hamonic is nowhere near a #1D. 3D on a good team, 2 in Edmonton. Sekera probably is still better all around.
    But for $4M, Hamonic should still be a important target for this team.

    Just go after a $6M or equivalent as well (would love to see both Hamonic and Shattenkirk here next season)

    Shattenkirk would be #1 here, but is still likely a #2. Then you would have Hamonic, Klefbom and Sekera who are all #3 guys. Puts Nurse/Reinhart/Davidson all in their best served roster spots.

    Then when one of the young D usurps a top 4 spot, you have a good problem.

  51. delooper says:

    I suspect the Oilers will do something completely unrelated to all the armchair GM talk we have going on here.

    I imagine one of you could write a script giving every possible trade possibility (there’s only finitely many of them… are there more or less than the number of grains of sand on the planet?)

    Sigh. What if what if what if… cycle cycle cycle.

  52. JDï™ says:

    Forecasting who would be what depth defender on a different team, reminds me of when I decided to upgrade the carb on my Dodge 383. I talked to guys at all the speed shops in town, got a consensus on what I should do, and that damned thing never ran as good as when it had the stock carb on it. And I was out several hundred dollars to boot.

    #chiaproblems

    Glad I don’t have them!

  53. hunter1909 says:

    All this talk – of trading away players both the team and fan base spent endless angst acquiring makes me want to Decimate the entire Lowetide Blogroll of posters, Roman Army style.

    Here’s How it Works:

    One in ten posters get taken out back and shot in the back of the head.

  54. dustrock says:

    G Money: – Add at least one, preferably two Top 4 D.– Don’t trade Hall, RNH, Drai, McDavid, Sekera, Nurse, or Klefbom.– The others should be on the table– As should the 2016 1st– UFA is fine, as is offer sheet. UFA means an overpay, either year or term or both.

    Yeah, this mirrors my thoughts exactly. I was just making an observation about some people who seem to cringe at the thought of giving up actual good players or overpaying on a UFA.

    The tricky thing is using McDavid’s ELC as much as possible.

    Regarding your point about assembling a perfect team and still not winning the Cup, I agree completely.

    I can’t remember if it was here or on HFBoards, but I remember asking “would you rather the Oilers turn into say the Sharks or Blues, where you have a full decade of guaranteed playoffs and good to great performances, but no Cup, or 1 Cup win with this core and otherwise unimportant, a la the Hurricanes?”

    And I was shocked at the overwhelmingly majority of fans who wanted the Cup. For me, I’d rather be the Sharks. At least every year we know we’d be competitive.

  55. dustrock says:

    hunter1909: All this talk of trading away players both the team and fan base spent seedless angst acquiring makes me want to Decimate the entire Lowetide Blogroll of posters, Roman Army style. Here’s How it Works:One in ten posters get taken out back and shot in the back of the head.

    Bookjie?

  56. JDï™ says:

    dustrock: Bookjie?

    But then we’ll need a new Bookjie!

  57. Water Fire says:

    hunter1909:
    All this talk of trading away players both the team and fan base spent endless angst acquiring makes me want to Decimate the entire Lowetide Blogroll of posters, Roman Army style.

    Here’s How it Works:

    One in ten posters get taken out back and shot in the back of the head.

    You first 🙂

  58. hunter1909 says:

    Water Fire: You first

    Neither Lowetide or myself will be taking part in this process; Lowetide is indispensable as Blog leader, and I’ll be bravely running the actual drawing of lots.

    Good luck!

  59. PhrankLee says:

    Raffi Torres on waivers. (I hope we pass, sincerely).

    But man he was a wrecking ball. When his hits were clean, I guess.

    Chia isn’t going to travel down that risk highway.

  60. Pajamah says:

    JDï™: But then we’ll need a new Bookjie!

    Precisely. I mean, who will we blame when shit goes off the rails here?

  61. PhrankLee says:

    hunter1909: One in ten posters get taken out back and shot in the back of the head.

    I respectfully request being shot in the side of the head. I want to leave a beautiful corpse.

  62. hunter1909 says:

    PhrankLee:
    Raffi Torres on waivers. (I hope we pass, sincerely).

    But man he was a wrecking ball.When his hits were clean, I guess.

    Chia isn’t going to travel down that risk highway.

    Sign Torres and trade for Lucic then run:

    Lucic Torres Kassian

    For the most hilarious line in NHL history.

  63. rickithebear says:

    dustrock: I would trade Draisaitl for Faulk.

    20 toughest Comp Centers since 07-08 top
    top 2 or 3 EVP/60
    with 2nd and 3rd C evp/60 avg.

    7-8:
    Zetterburg (27) 2.98
    Sundin (36) 2.92
    08-09
    Malkin (22) 3.07
    Crosby (21) 3.00
    Sedin (28) 2.78

    we start to see adecline in tough comp c Point production post lockout

    9-10
    Backstrom (22) 3.03 +.48 to avg
    Stamkos(19) 2.56
    2.55 avg
    10-11
    Sedin (30) 2.78 +.19 to avg
    Datsyuk (32) 2.72
    2.59 Avg
    11-12
    Zetterburg (31) 2.59 +.11 to avg
    Toews (23) 2.50
    2.48 AVG
    12-13
    Toews (24) 3.19 +.79 to avg
    Duchene (22) 2.59
    avg 2.40
    13-14
    Crosby (26) 2.84 +.29 to avg
    Duchene (23) 2.82 +.27 to avg
    Avg 2.53
    14-15
    Stepan (24) 2.35 +.16 to AVG
    Thorton( 2.19
    AVG 2.16
    15-16
    Draisatl (20) 2.73 +.71 to avg
    Little (28) 2.11
    2.02 AVG

    Malkin (22)
    Crosby (21)
    Backstrom (22)
    Stamkos (19)
    Toews (23)
    Duchene (22)
    Draisatl (22)
    one of the best over avg of the group!

    This is the first time I have wanted to walk up and slap someones mom!

  64. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    *Really* good question. One that I hope that Chia & co. are asking and projecting and planning around.

    Cap management is a critical part of team strategy, so if you’re going to pay big bucks to any one player, he better be worth it!

    (Subban? Probably, yes)

  65. Water Fire says:

    hunter1909: Sign Torres and trade for Lucic then run:

    Lucic Torres Kassian

    For the most hilarious line in NHL history.

    As starting line up against the Blue Jackets

  66. GCW_69 says:

    “If you could trade this year’s first round pick, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart for Faulk and Hamonic, would you? I think that is the kind of drastic action required by Chiarelli before fall.”

    Yes, I would do this, as painful as it would be to do. Many times LT has talked about balance, and the Oilers roster lacks talent and balance.

    These days though, I am not sure this year’s first round pick, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart gets you Faulk and Hamonic unless it’s Mathews.

    Question back – what if the cost was Nuge, and Reinhart for Faulk plus, and Nurse for Hamonic? Would you do it then if, say, the plus was Rask leaving Rask as your third line centre behind Leon and McDavid?

  67. Pajamah says:

    rickithebear: 20 toughest Comp Centers since 07-08 top
    top 2 or 3 EVP/60
    with 2nd and 3rd C evp/60

    7-8:
    Zetterburg (27) 2.98
    Sundin (36) 2.92
    08-09
    Malkin (22) 3.07
    Crosby (21) 3.00
    Sedin (28) 2.78

    we start to see adecline in elite Point production post lockout

    9-10
    Backstrom (22) 3.03 +.48 to avg
    Stamkos(19) 2.56
    2.55 avg
    10-11
    Sedin (30) 2.78+.19 to avg
    Datsyuk (32)2.72
    2.59 Avg
    11-12
    Zetterburg (31) 2.59 +.11 to avg
    Toews (23) 2.50
    2.48 AVG
    12-13
    Toews (24) 3.19 +.79 to avg
    Duchene (22) 2.59
    avg2.40
    13-14
    Crosby (26) 2.84 +.29 to avg
    Duchene (23) 2.82 +.27 to avg
    Avg 2.53
    14-15
    Stepan (24) 2.35 +.16 to AVG
    Thorton( 2.19
    AVG 2.16
    15-16
    Draisatl (20) 2.73 +.71 to avg
    Little (28) 2.11
    2.02 AVG

    Malkin (22)
    Crosby (21)
    Backstrom (22)
    Stamkos (19)
    Toews (23)
    Duchene (22)
    Draisatl (22)
    one of the best over avg of the group!

    This is the first time I have wanted to walk up and slap someones mom!

    I agree, we should absolutely say Draisaitl is a top 10 player in the NHL. Except he isn’t. and sample size matters.

    Also, we should disregard how good Faulk actually is when considering trading a very good player for him.

    You can get pissed when people suggest trading Hall, but when the ask is Doughty, context becomes important.

    Faulk is elite, cheap, and would make this team infinitely better. Draisaitl is very, very good, and likely the level of player the Oilers would need to trade or atleast offer, without getting hung up on.

    Get off your high horse, your opinion is no more valuable than dustrock’s.

  68. dustrock says:

    Pajamah,

    Ha ha thanks.

    I said it was painful to type! And I know G Money is pumping 3 elite Cs, and I absolutely understand the value there. But #1 D-men are rare too, and Faulk fits the “who is going to absolutely break out and be a #1 d-man for the next 10 years” better than maybe anyone else.

    If we didn’t have McDavid, we couldn’t trade Draisaitl. I don’t want to trade Draisaitl, he’s probably my favorite Oiler right now.

    But I really, really like Faulk. And I dream about a Klefbom-Faulk top pairing for the next 10 years.

  69. BrazilianOil says:

    PhrankLee: – Add 2 veteran high-end defencemen
    – but don’t trade Hall or RNH. Or Draisaitl.
    – or Nurse or Klefbom
    – maybe try to sign a UFA like Byfuglien
    – but don’t overpay in term.

    This is my “ftfy”

    So you are ok are tading McJesus …

  70. westcoastjos says:

    Long time lurker here, but have never joined the discussion, until this post.

    I agree with everything you said Lowetide.

    I will say this, I’ve only lived in Edmonton for about 5 years, but I’ve followed the Oilers as a fan since arriving here, because I never really had a team out west, even though I grew up in northern BC. With that said, it is quite obvious that the Oilers need to make some drastic changes at the end of this season – if they don’t make some big changes this off season, it is going to be tough to keep watching. They brought in Pete to make some big changes and frankly, we haven’t really seen those happen yet. I mean, Reinhart and Talbot were acquired, yes, but they weren’t really acquired with ‘real’ tangible assets. The conversations this season have really started to swing toward trading our big assets. This game has become a defensive game – there is no other way to put it. Our current D core is awful – there is no nice way of saying that either. If we get a good D core for next season, I’ll feel excited to watch the Oil play again, instead of feeling nervous. You shouldn’t feel nervous and anxious when watching hockey, unless your team is tied up in the playoffs in the third period.

  71. Water Fire says:

    Nurse for Hamonic is a loss IMO. Nurse for Faulk sure. I’d also trade Nuge or Eberle for Faulk because one of them (or their salaries) probably has to go in the next three years anyway.

  72. PhrankLee says:

    BrazilianOil: So you are ok are tading McJesus …

    Of course. As long as Bobby Orr and Scott Stevens are coming back in their respective primes…

    Get real.

  73. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OK so lets say we trade Nurse, Reinhart and the list rounder for Faulk

    And then he twists a knee funny in training camp or slides into the boards on a hockey play what kind of depth is left to cover that hole on the point?

    I don’t see how the trade Nuge at a huge risk premium logic doesn’t apply here

  74. flea says:

    Did I miss something? Is Justin Faulk on the trade block or something? Don’t see why Carolina would trade him. Seth Jones just netted Ryan Johansen, I bet Carolina would try to move Hanifan for a similiar return before they moved Faulk.

    I’m sorry Lt, love the site but this proposal is a pie in the sky dream. Hamonic sure . . . by Justin Faulk is too good for Carolina to consider trading at this point.

    Everyone wanted the Oilers to get two good defenders last year – they got one. They need another two this year, and I bet they only get one again. These guys are just way to hard to obtain. Let’s hope Hamonic comes here without a major sacrifice to the current d core, the Oilers sign another depth guy like Demers and that’s enough to make them competitive.

  75. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    flea,

    Also this which is the most prescient point of the bunch.

  76. rickithebear says:

    Kane :
    home 3rd comp 27gm 9 EVG 19 EVA 1.04 EVPPG
    road 2nd comp 26gm 7 EVG 13 EVA .769 EVPPG

    Gaudreau:
    Home 3rd comp comp 24gm 14 EVG 15 EVA 1.21 EVPPG
    Road 1st comp 24gm 3 EVG 4 EVA .292 EVPPG

    these 2 facing 3rd would be boys!

    Draisatl
    Home 1st comp 20gm 6 EVG 14 EVA 1.00 EVPPG
    Road 1st comp 20 gm 4EVG 6 EVA .500 EVPPG

    Hall
    Home1st comp 24gm 9 EVG 15 EVA 1.00 EVPPG
    Road 1st comp 26gm 6 EVG 9 EVA .577 EVPPG

    Eberle (healthy)
    Home 1st comp 13gm 4 EVG 4 EVA .616 EVPPG
    Road 1st comp 11gm 3 EVG 5 EVA .727 EVPPG

    Mcdavid not playingg with hall!
    Home 3rd comp 6gm 1EVG 4 EVA .833 EVPPG
    Road 2nd comp 3 gm 1 EVG 2 EVA 1.00 EVPPG

  77. G Money says:

    dustrock: I said it was painful to type! And I know G Money is pumping 3 elite Cs, and I absolutely understand the value there. But #1 D-men are rare too, and Faulk fits the “who is going to absolutely break out and be a #1 d-man for the next 10 years” better than maybe anyone else.

    I agree with you on this.

    But what’s it going to take to get Faulk out of Carolina? I’m certain they’re aware of his situation too.

    I’d suggest the starting point is Hall, but the more likely finishing point is McDavid.

    Again, the point here is: go ahead and dream about building a team around McDavid up front and a legit 1D at the back.

    But there is no conceivable situation in the next many years that I can see that will deliver that 1D to Edmonton.

    So you have to build around the competitive advantage that we do have, which is 3 elite C.

    That’s why I’m pumping that path. Because it’s the only realistic path available to the Oilers.

    Every other path involves trading an elite forward for a non-elite defenseman, and that’s a permanent likely irrevocable step backwards into mediocrity.

  78. Drew says:

    Water Fire: As starting line up against the Blue Jackets

    would be fun… but not in NHL history. I remember Oilers running Mcsorley, McClelland and Semenko on the same line (Calgary Flames night) often. Those were the days.

  79. Fog of Warts says:

    G Money:
    What the Oilers do have is three elite C. You can build a champion without a 1D if you have 3 elite centres.

    The thing is, fans with a long history have terms in their mental model tuned by “deep learning” on decades. The present state of the CBA tears all this to ribbons, but never mind.

    The thing is, it’s no longer possible to have a full plate of ribs on one hand, and a side order of sweet apple pie on the other.

    These days, if you choose ribs, you go without pie. If you choose pie, you go without ribs. (Any remaining team with both on their plate won some kind of GM pin-the-tail-on-the-snoring-donkey ultimate grudge match while the lion’s share of their compatriots succumbed to a post-CBA siesta—it won’t be so easy next time.)

    This small exclusion-principle factoid will finally sink into the general hockey consciousness in another ten years or so. Meanwhile, this latent drunk-deep desire to have it both ways is a pox upon clear thinking.

    ———

    കക്ഷത്തിലുള്ളത് പോകാനും പാടില്ല ഉത്തരത്തിലുള്ളത് വേണം താനും!

    You want both the one on the roof, and the one in your armpit.

    (Whoa … steer clear of the Keralites/Malayali.)

    ———

    Bonus marks to the Italians:

    Avere la botte piena e la moglie ubriaca

    to have the barrel full and the wife drunk

    AKA: you have to give some to get some

  80. Drew says:

    G Money: I agree with you on this.

    But what’s it going to take to get Faulk out of Carolina?I’m certain they’re aware of his situation too.

    I’d suggest the starting point is Hall, but the more likely finishing point is McDavid.

    Again, the point here is: go ahead and dream about building a team around McDavid up front and a legit 1D at the back.

    But there is no conceivable situation in the next many years that I can see that will deliver that 1D to Edmonton.

    So you have to build around the competitive advantage that we do have, which is 3 elite C.

    That’s why I’m pumping that path.Because it’s the only realistic path available to the Oilers.

    Every other path involves trading an elite forward for a non-elite defenseman, and that’s a permanent likely irrevocable step backwards into mediocrity.

    hear hear, use the assets we have most effectively and wait for opportunities to realize a wining outcome type trade. Backfill with good available dmen now and if the unicorn shows itself strike.

  81. Factotum says:

    Justin Faulk is a nice offensive defenseman, but there’s a TON of chaos in his game.

    His HSCA60 5×5 has never been below 12.
    Career HSCF%Rel 5×5 is -1.18 (-5.52 this year).
    This season, Carolina’s HSCF% 5×5 is 48.79 with Faulk on the ice and 54.31 when he’s off the ice.
    (stats from war-on-ice)

    On the HERO chart (Own The Puck), he’s almost off the “high event” scale.
    CA60 is at “bottom pairing” level.

    Red flags?

  82. G Money says:

    BTW, a question to those from last/this thread pondering Japan and the recent announcement of their NIRP.

    Why does anyone look at Japan as a lesson in economics?

    Japan is suffering from a generation-long drop in population growth, a result of non-replacement levels of childbirth (common to pretty much all developed nations) plus a longstanding and unfortunately rather xenophobic immigration policy.

    The second derivative of their growth i.e. the annual growth rate trend turned negative in the late 70s, shortly before the real estate bust – and I do not think the constant fears of deflation since are a coincidence.

    Their working age population started shrinking somewhere in the 1990s, and the actual population has also been shrinking for most of the last five years now. Unless something culturally changes in a big way, Japan, the nation as we know it now, is at the early stages of disappearing.

    This is why you get an economy that is constantly fighting deflation and recession … yet somehow manages a stellar 3.5% unemployment rate.

    Personally, I think the unemployment rate – though it is rightly categorized as a trailing indicator economically – may still be a more critical measure of what’s actually happening in an economy than GDP growth or inflation rates.

    Which gets back to my original question – there seems to be little parallel between what is happening, or why, in Japan and what is happening almost everywhere else.

    Other than informing immigration policy, not sure there are many economic lessons – optimistic or pessimistic – to be drawn.

    Thoughts? NYC? Boho? Asia?

  83. who says:

    vesci,

    Yes trade Eberle, not the pick. Everyone here is suggesting Nurse for Hamonic. My take is Klef is better than Nurse right now but Nurse has the higher upside. I think the majority of people here have said the same thing. I would trade Klef for Hamonic ( similar skill, upside and contract). It is a sideways move but helps balance the pairings. if you think Klef is a little better get them to throw a prospect or draft pick in.

  84. Drew says:

    G Money:
    BTW, a question to those from last/this thread pondering Japan and the recent announcement of their NIRP.

    Why does anyone look at Japan as a lesson in economics?

    Japan is suffering from a generation-long drop in population growth, a result of non-replacement levels of childbirth (common to pretty much all developed nations) plus a longstanding and unfortunately rather xenophobic immigration policy.

    The second derivative of their growth i.e. the annual growth rate trend turned negative in the late 70s, shortly before the real estate bust – and I do not think the constant fears of deflation since are a coincidence.

    Their working age population started shrinking somewhere in the 1990s, and the actual population has now also been shrinking for most of the last five years now.Unless something culturally changes in a big way, Japan, the nation as we know it now, is at the early stages of disappearing.

    This is why you get an economy that is constantly fighting deflation and recession … yet somehow manages a stellar 3.5% unemployment rate.

    Personally, I think the unemployment rate – though it is rightly categorized as a trailing indicator economically – may still be a more critical measure of what’s actually happening in an economy than GDP growth or inflation rates.

    Which gets back to my original question – there seems to be little parallel between what is happening, or why, in Japan and what is happening almost everywhere else.

    Other than informing immigration policy, not sure there are many economic lessons – optimistic or pessimistic – to be drawn.

    Thoughts?NYC?Boho?Asia?

    bad decision between xenophobic policy choices and the risk of social disorder? Democracy to blame?

  85. who says:

    dustrock,

    I agree, I would rather be the Sharks. Doesn’t mean you won’t win the cup. You give yourself the best chance to win if you put a contender on the ice for 8 or 10 years in a row. The Oilers have a chance to do this with their current group of assets. The management of these assets in the next 5 years will determine if they can build this type of team. Deciding who your 4 or 5 core guys will be through this period is a huge decision. These are the guys who will get the big long term deals so you had better be right. The rest of the top end players will have to be traded for younger, cheaper prospects and picks.That is what the Hawks and now the Kings have done.

  86. Kmart99 says:

    G Money,

    ‘Trade one of Nuge, McDavid, or Draisaitl and you DON’T get one of those six or seven top notch defensemen back’

    Can’t agree with this statement. It’s more like: ‘Trade the #1 Dman in the league to the Oilers and you still aren’t getting McDavid.”

  87. rickithebear says:

    Pajamah: I agree, we should absolutely say Draisaitl is a top 10 player in the NHL. Except he isn’t. and sample size matters.

    Also, we should disregard how good Faulk actually is when considering trading a very good player for him.

    You can get pissed when people suggest trading Hall, but when the ask is Doughty, context becomes important.

    Faulk is elite, cheap, and would make this team infinitely better. Draisaitl is very, very good, and likely the level of player the Oilers would need to trade or atleast offer, without getting hung up on.

    Get off your high horse, your opinion is no more valuable than dustrock’s.

    The small sample were he throws off the toughest defenders in the league like little bitches
    or
    the small sample size were he makes passes no one should make.
    or
    the small sample size were he has that Benn-Seguin symbiotic pairing every coach dreams of!

    Just so we are clear the first thing defenders do is Defend the net.

    The treams that have great HSCA?60 depth make the conf finals!.

    J. Faulk (#23 comp .059) 12.33 that would be last on the Panthers.
    and #200 of 225

    Fayne (.077) 11.36 #135/ 202 D
    Klefbom (.054) 10.12 #64 / 202 D
    Sekera (.035) 11.44 #140 / 202 D
    Reinhart (.008) 10.56 #93 / 202 D
    Davidson (-.022) 9.62 #37 / 202 D
    ———————————————-
    Nurse (-.020) 14.22 #201 / 202 D
    Schultz (-.033) 13.18 #192 / 202 D
    Gryba (-.067) 13.02 #191 / 202 D

    We have our best box protection depth since 06-07.
    the facts!
    we need to see them together!

    Clandening 3rd comp 6.96
    6.96 fucking sakes.
    he PP qb’s

    Oh I don’t Know
    Klefbom-Fayne
    Davidson-Sekera
    Reinhart-Clandening

    I have no use for whiny bitches who do not back up there trade ideas with facts!

    Otherwise the HF boards stench invades!

    No fucking HF clown brain!
    That is my High horse.

    Ask yourself from a fact point of view if that shit would wash at work!

  88. Pouzar says:

    Put me in the “no f^ckin way do you trade Nurse” camp.
    Shocker I know.

  89. kinger_OIL says:

    who:
    vesci,

    Yes trade Eberle, not the pick. Everyone here is suggesting Nurse for Hamonic. My take is Klef is better than Nurse right now but Nurse has the higher upside. I think the majority of people here have said the same thing. I would trade Klef for Hamonic ( similar skill, upside and contract). It is a sideways move but helps balance the pairings. if you think Klef is a little better get them to throw a prospect or draft pick in.

    – Good lord: Klef for Harmonic doesn’t move the needle. You need to replace Klef’s minutes.

    – You do that, and you still need two more D’s

    – I wouldn’t love Nurse for Harmonic, but I could talk myself into it, because of the three years of Harmonic as top-3, team is better now vs 3 years for Nurse to hopefully develop into Harmonic+

  90. PhrankLee says:

    G Money: So you have to build around the competitive advantage that we do have, which is 3 elite C.
    That’s why I’m pumping that path. Because it’s the only realistic path available to the Oilers.

    I am 100% convinced this is right.

    And I think they finish at or near .500 this year because of it.

  91. Colieo87 says:

    To be honest this is just speculation.
    Wait out the season and see what brings with qualifying offers and who stays and walks) FA)

  92. RJ2016 says:

    “UFAs will cost more in $AAV and term.”

    I think we can all look at this and immediately think “David Clarkson”.

    But in last season’s UFA market, who was terribly overpaid? I see a defenceman like Franson, and in previous years someone would have overpaid him. He ended up with a two-year $6.65m deal.

    We can guess a pretty flat cap, so very few teams are going to have a ton of cap space to throw at UFAs. Unless the Oil are going after a #1D, they will be able to add some complementary players at a reasonable cost. As LT notes above, if Nuge nets you a 2 RHD, and you can sign a veteran two-way C with size, then it’s at least worth considering.

  93. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    G Money,

    I’m with you here!

    I do believe people on this blog have forgotten just how good Connor McDavid is now and will be in a year or two. He upends everything and unlike the Penguins we currently have one (maybe two-three if someone slides from C – wing) horses who are capable of running at his pace.

    The big Pacific teams who love the big body possession game have a lot of miles on them and are aging fast. Calgary, Arizona and the Oilers are not and goaltending is a giant question mark for two of those three teams.

    The current record of the Oilers is not an indication of their true value. I am not being a blinded fool or what have you by saying this either, I’m looking at a team that has been playing without two of their better defensmen, recently their number 1/2C and a scoring talent that comes along once every 10-15 years, which has helped them top the league for significant man games lost due to injury. This has contributed to them losing a pile of close one goal games recently.

    Are you seriously trying to convince me that if Klefbom, Davidson, McDavid and Nuge are all in the lineup they don’t have a very good shot at winning the Anaheim, Tampa, Florida, Dallas or San Jose games all of which were decided by one goal or in a shoot out?

    Everyone needs to chill out, step away from the ledge and remember that in 4 or so ish days Connor will be back. The light at the end of the tunnel will begin to shine over the next couple of months

  94. Bruce McCurdy says:

    flea: Did I miss something? Is Justin Faulk on the trade block or something? Don’t see why Carolina would trade him. Seth Jones just netted Ryan Johansen, I bet Carolina would try to move Hanifan for a similiar return before they moved Faulk.

    Beat me to it, I’ve been reading along, shaking my head frequently, & going “why the Faulk would Carolina trade this guy?”

    That said, Chiarelli should be fired for not having made the trade for him already.

  95. kinger_OIL says:

    PhrankLee: I am 100% convinced this is right.

    And I think they finish at or near .500 this year because of it.

    – I’ll take the other side of that trade. The marginal improvement between the benefit of a 3rd elite C is far less than the marginal improvement of getting a 28 minute a game muncher and 2C (or 3 Sekera’s playing 22 minutes each, and 2 C)

    – 3 elite C don’t get to play 20 minutes each: it is a sub-optimal team construction.

    – I’d love to be wrong, but I don’t see a balanced roster intact long-term cap wise with 3 elite C

  96. Centre of attention says:

    Fresh from the Friedge:

    Chris Nichols ‏@NicholsOnHockey · 13m13 minutes ago
    Friedman: I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re getting close to end of Schultz’s time w/ Edmonton #Oilers. Writing is very much on the wall.

  97. dustrock says:

    rickithebear,

    Chill out, dude. I’m suggesting I would trade Draisaitl painfully for the guy I think would be the best chance at grabbing a true “#1 d-man” for the next 10 years, because we aren’t getting Karlsson, Subban, Doughty, etc.

    That’s the level of trade it would need to be for me to trade Draisaitl. I’m entertaining the possibility.

    Faulk plays highest QoC on the Canes, and most DZ starts. He’s got a 52%CF and a 99.0 PDO. 56.9 IPP (10th in the league for D). He’s 23 years old.

  98. Lowetide says:

    Reading a lot of posters late in the thread saying ‘I am sorry this is speculation’ and such. Folks, if I had rumor, would have linked. We are speculating here, with the general idea being that if you are not willing to trade Darnell Nurse (if the right opportunity arises) then you (PC) are not looking at things properly.

    If my post gave the you the impression that Faulk was available, my apologies. I felt pretty certain readers would know I was speaking in general terms.

  99. dustrock says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Beat me to it, I’ve been reading along, shaking my head frequently, & going “why the Faulk would Carolina trade this guy?” That said, Chiarelli should be fired for not having made the trade for him already.

    I think the idea of Faulk came up when we were speculating what it would take to move somebody like RNH or Draisaitl, and LT’s idea of trading strength – Carolina has to have one of the best young D corps in the league. But trading for Faulk is pure fantasy.

    This is just killing time when there’s no actual games to watch until Return of the Jedi on February 2nd.

  100. Gordies Elbow says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    The Oilers have lost 210 games to injury in 50 games played, with 127 of those to top four defenders or top six forwards.

    Sad to say the story of the season was being pulled into the boards while killing a penalty, a broken finger turning into a staph infection, a linesman pulling down a player causing a high ankle sprain, a hip injury from a hit into the boards, and an uncalled crosscheck to the ribs.

  101. vinotintazo says:

    dustrock:
    rickithebear,

    Chill out, dude.I’m suggesting I would trade Draisaitl painfully for the guy I think would be the best chance at grabbing a true “#1 d-man” for the next 10 years, because we aren’t getting Karlsson, Subban, Doughty, etc.

    That’s the level of trade it would need to be for me to trade Draisaitl.I’m entertaining the possibility.

    Faulk plays highest QoC on the Canes, and most DZ starts.He’s got a 52%CF and a 99.0 PDO.56.9 IPP (10th in the league for D).He’s 23 years old.

    as said above, nothing indicates Faulk is on the move… NOTHING, so we should stop targetting him.

    target ppl who might/will be moved soon like:
    Hamonic
    Shattenkirk
    etc.

  102. Lowetide says:

    Chris Nichols ‏@NicholsOnHockey 9m9 minutes ago

    Friedman: I do believe we are getting closer to day #Oilers makes move w/ one of its young Fs for a D. I’d rank them 1. Eberle/ 2. RNH

    Chris Nichols ‏@NicholsOnHockey 8m8 minutes ago

    Friedman on Hamonic: “I have no doubt that’s what the #Oilers are considering. I have no doubt they’re going to try to get it done.” #Isles

  103. RJ2016 says:

    The only point I’d like to add to trading the #1 pick is that I’ll be curious to see not only where it lands but the order of the top-3.

    The scouting reports I’ve read have recommended acquiring both Puljujarvi and Laine. Should Buffalo be the #2, then maybe there is interest in swapping Ristolainen for the right to pick both.

    Puljujarvi – Eichel – Laine

    Would be a marketer’s dream.

    On the Oilers side you’d pick up a 21-year old RHD with 31 points in 50 games.

  104. dustrock says:

    Wow that’s pretty solid from Friedman.

  105. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    I can hear that sad clarinet solo from Coronation street.

    Its going to be difficult seeing Nuge / Eberle lighting it up on another team.

    I really REALLY hope Hamonic is enough to help things.

  106. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Reading a lot of posters late in the thread saying ‘I am sorry this is speculation’ and such. Folks, if I had rumor, would have linked. We are speculating here, with the general idea being that if you are not willing to trade Darnell Nurse (if the right opportunity arises) then you (PC) are not looking at things properly.

    If my post gave the you the impression that Faulk was available, my apologies. I felt pretty certain readers would know I was speaking in general terms.

    Got it.

    So why do you hate Darnell?

  107. ashley says:

    Again, I think we’re whale hunting. And for a “whale” who is having a good year this year, but maybe not next.

    We don’t need a whale. We just need a couple of decent NHL Dmen. Not an 8 million dollar guy (Faulk next contract), just a couple of 3-4 million dollar guys.

    The quality of the team is mostly established at the margins, not at the top. We have learned this the hard way expecting elite players like Hall and RNH to come in and turn this into a playoff team in a year or two.

    Where does the talent trail away on the depth chart? Is it after the first pairing, second, or third? Have we got muckers and bubble players on the second line (Oilers last 4 years), third line, or way down on the fourth? Or do we have them on the first line (2008-2009).

    Chia needs to focus on this depth to have any sustained success. A whale is still just one guy and if you trade away one of your existing NHL players, you are net better on an individual basis, but the talent trails off at the same point on the depth chart and the team is still exposed for too many minutes every game.

  108. godot10 says:

    Justin Faulk is about as available as Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Neither is.

    Ron Francis is laughing his way to perennial contention. He has Faulk. He has Hanifin. And he has two other rookie D. He has Eric Staal likely leaving, or being forced to agree to a big hometown discount. He has Ward coming off the books.

    He is positioned like Chicago when Tallon took over.

    Hamonic is worth it, except if his acquisition costs Klefbom or Nurse…which then make it a sideways upside limiting move.

    Burns and Hamonic and Shattenkirk should be the targets. San Jose has to decide on Burns this summer. They don’t have a 1st round choice. If they fail again in the playoffs, they may think seriously about getting younger.

    And if all three fall though, then one moves into the more risky UFA market and target Byfuglien.

  109. GCW_69 says:

    kinger_OIL: – Good lord: Klef for Harmonic doesn’t move the needle. You need to replace Klef’s minutes.

    – You do that, and you still need two more D’s

    – I wouldn’t love Nurse for Harmonic, but I could talk myself into it, because of the three years of Harmonic as top-3, team is better now vs 3 years for Nurse to hopefully develop into Harmonic+

    Arguably, LD are easier to acquire, so if you traded Klefbom for Hamonic, you give your self greater opportunity to trade Eberle, Nuge, Yak or the 1st for a Klefbom replacement.

    Sometimes its a chess game, not checkers.

  110. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar: Got it.

    So why do you hate Darnell?

    Sideburns are too good!

  111. Pajamah says:

    rickithebear: The small sample were he throws off the toughest defenders in the league like little bitches
    or
    the small sample size were he makes passes no one should make.
    or
    the smallsample size were he has that Benn-Seguin symbiotic pairing every coach dreams of!

    Just so we are clear the first thing defenders do is Defend the net.

    The treams that have great HSCA?60 depth make the conf finals!.

    J. Faulk (#23 comp .059) 12.33 that would be last on the Panthers.
    and #200 of 225

    Fayne (.077) 11.36 #135/ 202 D
    Klefbom (.054) 10.12 #64 / 202 D
    Sekera (.035) 11.44 #140 / 202 D
    Reinhart(.008)10.56 #93 / 202 D
    Davidson (-.022) 9.62 #37 / 202 D
    ———————————————-
    Nurse (-.020) 14.22 #201 / 202 D
    Schultz (-.033) 13.18 #192 / 202 D
    Gryba (-.067) 13.02 #191 / 202 D

    We have our best box protection depth since 06-07.
    the facts!
    we need to see them together!

    Clandening 3rd comp 6.96
    6.96 fucking sakes.
    he PP qb’s

    Oh I don’t Know
    Klefbom-Fayne
    Davidson-Sekera
    Reinhart-Clandening

    I have no use for whiny bitches who do not back up there trade ideas with facts!

    Otherwise the HF boards stench invades!

    No fucking HF clown brain!
    That is my High horse.

    Ask yourself from a fact point of view if that shit would wash at work!

    You might possibly be the most misguided poster I have ever read on this comment section.

    You speak ill of Faulk, not willing to see he would instantly become the Oilers best defenseman (were he to become available)

    You price HDSCA like it is the be all end all, when its only a small part of what defensemen do.

    I’ve yet to see a post where I “whine”. I’ve never actually visited HF boards and this, Copper and Blue, and Cult of Hockey (although sporadically) are the only Oiler related sites I visit.

    You keep telling other posters here that they are off base, need to look harder, as if your statistical analysis is second to none. Again, take your thoughts, marry them up to what credible, intelligent hockey people think (i.e. Friedman, MacKenzie, not Hrudey, Remenda) and see if it passes the smell test.

    Your analysis is terrible, and you should feel terrible representing it as anything but hackneyed garbage.

    I have fun here. I can joke around, I can post my thoughts, but I am no expert. I defer to LT, WoodGuy, G-Money, and many, many others.

    I fucking cringe when I read your garbage.

  112. sliderule says:

    Not much talk about prospect gameNo interest here?

    I was impressed by the defencemen..

    Joulevi and Bean moved the puck well and seemed to fit the mold for puck moving defenders.

    Chychrun moved well and dominated in the D zone.Tried to do to much rushing the puck and turned it over but you can see the skill.

    Chychrun finished second in on ice testing and Bean was third..Pretty impressive for defencemen when you look back at last year when Connor and Marner dominated in testing.

  113. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    BTW, a question to those from last/this thread pondering Japan and the recent announcement of their NIRP.

    Why does anyone look at Japan as a lesson in economics?

    Japan is suffering from a generation-long drop in population growth, a result of non-replacement levels of childbirth (common to pretty much all developed nations) plus a longstanding and unfortunately rather xenophobic immigration policy.

    The second derivative of their growth i.e. the annual growth rate trend turned negative in the late 70s, shortly before the real estate bust – and I do not think the constant fears of deflation since are a coincidence.

    Their working age population started shrinking somewhere in the 1990s, and the actual population has also been shrinking for most of the last five years now.Unless something culturally changes in a big way, Japan, the nation as we know it now, is at the early stages of disappearing.

    This is why you get an economy that is constantly fighting deflation and recession … yet somehow manages a stellar 3.5% unemployment rate.

    Personally, I think the unemployment rate – though it is rightly categorized as a trailing indicator economically – may still be a more critical measure of what’s actually happening in an economy than GDP growth or inflation rates.

    Which gets back to my original question – there seems to be little parallel between what is happening, or why, in Japan and what is happening almost everywhere else.

    Other than informing immigration policy, not sure there are many economic lessons – optimistic or pessimistic – to be drawn.

    Thoughts?NYC?Boho?Asia?

    The NIRP is shocking for many because the trend for markets under the modern system is “growth always and forever” under very specific criteria. Modest gains have become synonymous with stagnation when in fact they aren’t, but the push is to outpace the fastest growers in the market.

    Now, I’m not arguing for Abe-nomics because there’s pretty much nothing Abe is doing there that would be considered right other than it might be less wrong than the favoured alternatives.

    But the perception of the economic landscape is what I find most fascinating.

    The uncoupling that occurred in some of the major markets in the 70s and 80s which eventually resulted in the mess that emerged first in the Asian banking sector in the 90s and eventually in the NA and European banking sectors in the 2000s to present hasn’t been rectified. Instead the system has found ways to perpetuate itself by selling the idea that certain measures (making readily available credit, flooding markets with liquidity, etc) are effective measures to restore the system, but nobody seems to want to admit that the system is inherently unbalanced.

    I suspect that in much the same way that previous iterations of global economic systems had to be redrawn, we are approaching that point again. I doubt it happens this time the way it did previously, with a few of the largest stakeholders essentially drawing it out and letting the remainder of the world participants find their seats on their own.

    What I will watch with most interest is the process in China.

    They have a vested interest in the status quo, perhaps more so than any other major economic nation in the world, but are seeing an accelerated experiment with capital markets play out in front of them and the levers they’ve been told by the old capital markets to use for this or that problem don’t appear to be working very well. So they have a choice, devise a new system to reward and encourage growth by a different measure, abandon the process altogether and return to a more closed market, or ride it out and try to deflect attention using other means such as xenophobia, conflict, etc.

    I haven’t had a chance to read too much about Japan’s NIRP yet, but look forward to it. Nothing quite like watching economists tear their hair out over potholes and fail to notice the looming washed-out bridge ahead.

  114. Pajamah says:

    @rickithebear

    I also wanted to make another post on this, as I want to segregate the name calling, childish stuff you dragged me into.

    You said shit, I said shit, and now I am choosing to move on to more important matters like discussing the Edmonton Oilers hockey club.

    You can choose to continue this, but if you want to, you’ll have to do it on Twitter via DM, because I don’t want to crowd this fine establishment with a pointless argument

    @JamieWrightO3. O as in the letter, not zero.

    Edit: LT, feel free to delete this at your leisure if you deem necessary. Sorry in advance for the derailment.

  115. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Not much talk about prospect gameNo interest here?

    I was impressed by the defencemen..

    Joulevi and Bean moved the puck well and seemed to fit the mold for puck moving defenders.

    Chychrun moved well and dominated in the D zone.Tried to do to much rushing the puck and turned it over but you can see the skill.

    Chychrun finished second in on ice testing and Bean was third..Pretty impressive for defencemen when you look back at last year when Connor and Marner dominated in testing.

    I thought the defenders did well, too. Generally good at passing, clearing the zone and standing up at the blue line. They all had good moments for sure. Even Day.

  116. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Sideburns are too good!

    More like Nurse does things on skates you and I couldn’t do on dry land in sneakers with a 30 second head start.

    Damn that kid!

  117. Quinlan says:

    Anyone else remember how the knock on Brent Burns in Minnesota was that he tried to do too much?

    The same being said about Chychrun got me thinking, how often does the guy go supernova (like Burns) and who might an example be of someone who can’t do what he tries to do (Jack Johnson?)?

    Curious too, because I’ve heard the same said about Nurse.

    Seems to me that maybe the corner Burns turned was using his teammates to get the puck back again. Could also be said, however, that when he went to SJ he was finally able to play with players of comparable skill.

  118. Quinlan says:

    sliderule,

    I really liked Juolevi and Sergachev. Bean impressed me too.

    Of course, that’s probably because, subliminally, I’m hoping the Oil are choosing outside of the top 5, which draws me to the #5-#15 projected picks.

    Same reason I didn’t focus on McDavid last year. Ha!

  119. Pajamah says:

    Quinlan:
    Anyone else remember how the knock on Brent Burns in Minnesota was that he tried to do too much?

    The same being said about Chychrun got me thinking, how often does the guy go supernova (like Burns) and who might an example be of someone who can’t do what he tries to do (Jack Johnson?)?

    Curious too, because I’ve heard the same said about Nurse.

    Seems to me that maybe the corner Burns turned was using his teammates to get the puck back again. Could also be said, however, that when he went to SJ he was finally able to play with players of comparable skill.

    Re: Nurse. Does 6 things, needs to do 3.

    Good problem when you need to slow a guy down instead of teaching something in that isn’t there to begin with.

  120. dustrock says:

    Quinlan,

    Chychrun 2nd on-ice skills, 1st off-ice, after having shoulder surgery last year.

    Is he Burns or Johnson? Who knows. He has the tools, that’s for sure.

  121. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    RexLibris,

    Yes and no to your point on China

    Capital markets in China are beyond opaque and only a relatively small amount of large business balance sheets are financed by public markets in Shanghai, Hong Kong or Beijing. The real money still flows through the People’s Bank of China and is largely allocated by the central or state level governments.

    I believe what we are seeing play out in China is fascinating in that much like the 1950-1970’s when you had governments encouraging individual citizens to get involved in equity markets in the Wes the same thing is occurring in China but there is nowhere near the level of transparency and liquidity needed to allow these markets to function correctly.

    I’ve read recently that China’s equity markets are a lot closer to a casino than they are to Wall St or Bay St, unfortunately for the central government they encouraged their wealthier and middle class citizens to throw their savings in to this casino. The sad thing about casino’s is that they rely much more on emotion that they do reason and analysis and we are seeing the central government rely on ever more elaborate levers to keep a check on the hair raising volatility that they have seen lately driven largely by inexperienced investors shifting with each news story.

  122. Pouzar says:

    Anyone get the feeling a Hamonic deal is already done?
    I do.

    “It took months to pull this together….”

  123. AsiaOil says:

    Hi G – you’ve omitted one crucial factor – debt.

    Japan has long since crossed the event horizon in the this respect having a debt to GDP ratio north of 230% (worst in the world). No country has escaped default from half this level and Japanese tax revenues are also falling due to demographics that cannot sustain the ever rising debts. Japanese pension funds are the largest holders of Japanese government debt, but these have also have turned from net buyers to net sellers as a result of demographics. Their bond market is – to be somewhat direct – kinda fucked and productivity increases are just pissing against the wind. They will print yen to buy Japanese government bond until the whole damn thing implodes which is the foundation of Kyle Bass’ bet against JGB. The only alternative is for Abe to do the exact opposite of the existing strategy – cut spending, let interest rates rise and deal with the mountain of unsustainable debt they’ve built up. I doubt that happens – nothing in their behavior supports this – they will destroy the currency and issue a new one after they default. Debts that cannot be sustained will be defaulted and there is no escape from this reality outside of Krugman’s fantasy world.

    Happy Friday and konichiwa!

    G Money:
    BTW, a question to those from last/this thread pondering Japan and the recent announcement of their NIRP.

    Why does anyone look at Japan as a lesson in economics?

  124. Snowman says:

    Pouzar,

    What’s your guess?

    I get the feeling its on the way. Stauffer is dropping a few too many bread crumbs. Confirmed somewhat by Friedman.

    I think Eberle/Hamonic for sure and if you can throw Schultz and Okposo in there I’d be thrilled. Oilers would have to add somewhat to get Okposo.

    Tough thing is that the Islanders are in middle of a tough playoff race. Makes it pretty tough for them to make a big shakeup. They’re just hanging on.

  125. Pajamah says:

    Pouzar:
    Anyone get the feeling a Hamonic deal is already done?
    I do.

    “It took months to pull this together….”

    If it is done, is there some media moratorium on announcing deals during All Star break?

  126. LoDog says:

    This team needs two very good dmen AND keep Nurse.

    If you can sign Byfuglien trade for Hamonic. Do the blues really want to trade Shattenkirk, then get it done already, Eberle is my fav player but ba bye if that will do it.

    Next year should be IMO:
    Sekara
    Klefbom
    Nurse

    With two of Hamonic/Shattenkirk/Byfuglien/excellent RHD for the top 2 pairings. Sekars can be traded if and when Nurse is ready. Not so hard.

  127. LoDog says:

    Pouzar:
    Anyone get the feeling a Hamonic deal is already done?
    I do.

    “It took months to pull this together….”

    I had that feeling but it has been replaced with PC working St Louis and NYI. Who blinks first determines whether trade for Hamonic or Shattenkirk.

  128. fifthcartel says:

    This Oilers Now with Friedman sounds really interesting, I can’t wait till it’s up on Ched’s website.

  129. hunter1909 says:

    G Money: BTW, a question to those from last/this thread pondering Japan and the recent announcement of their NIRP.
    Why does anyone look at Japan as a lesson in economics?
    Japan is suffering from a generation-long drop in population growth, a result of non-replacement levels of childbirth (common to pretty much all developed nations) plus a longstanding and unfortunately rather xenophobic immigration policy.
    The second derivative of their growth i.e. the annual growth rate trend turned negative in the late 70s, shortly before the real estate bust – and I do not think the constant fears of deflation since are a coincidence.
    Their working age population started shrinking somewhere in the 1990s, and the actual population has also been shrinking for most of the last five years now. Unless something culturally changes in a big way, Japan, the nation as we know it now, is at the early stages of disappearing.

    This is laughable.

    I’m wondering what Japan hopes to do when China eventually decides to make amends for, among other things, certain events which took place in 20th century Nanking.

  130. AsiaOil says:

    The Oilers have both areas of weakness and areas of strength.

    Areas of strength: center (although young) and LHD (although young)

    Weakness: RHD, size in the top 6 on the wings

    One internal move can address the size in the top 6 on the wing move – have RNH center Hall with Drai on RW. That will also free us up to move Eberle (bigger contract and more valuable than Yak).

    Hard to imagine but yes LHD is an area of abundance with Sekera, Klef, Nurse, Reinhart and Davidson. I’m comfortable with Sekera playing RHD on the 2nd pair with either Nurse or Reinhart next year. I like all of these guys but someone has to be moved to provide playing time and balance. Klef seems to be able to handle top pair and has a great contract so I’d be reluctant, the GM just brought in GR so that’s unlikely, Davidson will have a sweet contract. Nurse has potential. So that’s it – is Nurse’s “potential” so great that he is untradable? I’d say no for the right guy – but the “right guy” is rare as hen’s teeth.

    Will be interesting to see how Chia works through the first week of July.

  131. flea says:

    Lowetide:
    Reading a lot of posters late in the thread saying ‘I am sorry this is speculation’ and such. Folks, if I had rumor, would have linked. We are speculating here, with the general idea being that if you are not willing to trade Darnell Nurse (if the right opportunity arises) then you (PC) are not looking at things properly.

    If my post gave the you the impression that Faulk was available, my apologies. I felt pretty certain readers would know I was speaking in general terms.

    I’m following you more now, Faulk is the sort of return you’d like to see for a guy like Nurse.

    I’d love to see the Oilers add two top 4 defenceman before the start of next season. I might go so far as to label them fringe contenders if they did. I just don’t see it happening. If they can get Hamonic for futures and maybe a few beating hearts outside of the core, that would be a huge coup. I just don’t see them getting someone else. Maybe for Nuge, but for me that is a 2017 transaction, not a 2016 one. Subtract Schultz, Fayne, Nikitin, Ference, Gryba, add Hamonic and a depth defenceman

    Klefbom – Sekera
    Nurse – Hamonic
    Davidson – Demers
    Reinhart

    It’s not great but it’s better. They have guys that can potentially play up the lineup (eg the bottom three left guys are interchangable) And you leave Sekera on the right side where he does ok. Might have to sign one more depth guy for coverage, or maybe Mark Fayne is still around. Who knows – it’s still a bit of a mess.

  132. blainer says:

    Using the media to get something done if you ask me. Put it out there that ebs is going to NY and ST Louis has to decide real quick..

    Thinking Ebs Shultz and/or Davidson for Hamonic Strome..

  133. hankster says:

    I walked home one day and found a $20 bill laying on the sidewalk with no one around to claim it. Found money. I feel like some people would stubbornly walk that road endlessly expecting to find another $20…until they starve to death.
    I really enjoy your blog LT. Provides a great forum for discussion but when I see don’t trade anybody from certain posters here …well, temp rises and smoke comes out of my ears.

    If Gretzky got traded, McDavid can even be traded…Katz can even be replaced ! Get ready for true turn north next year when shiny things are converted to a real team. I’m looking forward to it.

    dustrock: One can hope Nurse will be Pronger’s equal defensively, but I can’t ever see it happening offensively.

    I’m trying to understand what people want to do here.

    – Add 2 veteran high-end defencemen
    – but don’t trade Hall, Eberle or RNH.Or Draisaitl.
    – or Nurse or Davidson or Klefbom
    – or the 2016 1st
    – maybe try to sign a UFA like Byfuglien
    – but don’t overpay per year or term.

    Okay, good luck then.This isn’t Settlers of Catan, you can’t trade Schultz, Fayne and Gryba for Shattenkirk.

  134. Pajamah says:

    hunter1909: This is laughable.

    I’m wondering what Japan hopes to do when China eventually decides to make amends for, among other things,certain events which took place in 20th century Nanking.

    It’s been 70 years. I doubt very much they’re just biding their time. Old regimes and such. Doubt you punish the child for what his grandfather did.

  135. vinotintazo says:

    go hard or go home.

    Sekera-Hamonic
    Klefbom-Shattenkirk
    anyone cheap-anyone cheap

  136. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    This Oilers Now with Friedman sounds really interesting, I can’t wait till it’s up on Ched’s website.

    It has been up for some time.

    Wrote about if for ON
    http://oilersnation.com/2016/1/29/did-someone-say-bold

  137. haters says:

    Nurse is going to be a top 4 defenseman in 2-3 years time.
    Not today.
    He most likely (from his trajectory in junior) will be a excellent shut down D. Maybe.
    Not much in the way of offensive chops here.
    We most likely picked the wrong defenseman in his draft.

    Hamonic is already an established RHD in the bigs. A good one to be sure.
    If people are so blind as to not see the value in trading from a position of strength (LHD)to address the biggest weakness on the team (RHD) because of some crazy idea Nurse is the next Chris Pronger? Then I really don’t have much to say to you.

    We have Klefbom and Sekera for years. We need a value contract in the next LHD spot (Davidson).
    The play here is simple if Snow and St Loius play ball.
    Hamonic for Nurse
    Eberle or Yak+++ for Shattenkirk

    We have a solid affordable top 4 defense core
    Draft one of the Finns or replace Ebs or through Free agent wire.
    Or we can wait till 2019 when Nurse unleashes his inner Doughty …

  138. hunter1909 says:

    Pajamah: It’s been 70 years. I doubt very much they’re just biding their time. Old regimes and such. Doubt you punish the child for what his grandfather did.

    They’ve been fighting bloody wars forever.

    Like England and France, who, were they to declare war tomorrow England would have a million volunteers – all swimming the Channel toward Calais with knives in their mouths.

  139. haters says:

    vinotintazo:
    go hard or go home.

    Sekera-Hamonic
    Klefbom-Shattenkirk
    anyone cheap-anyone cheap

    Geez I guess I just coulda put it that way 😛

  140. AsiaOil says:

    I’m pretty much baffled why people continue to put GR as a #7 dman at best next year. Did they watch the NAS game? That is what you will see with more and more regularity as he gains experience. Air tight defense and the ability to jump into the play on offense when the opportunity arises.

    Nurse really (and I mean really) needs to go to the AHL for the rest of the season and playoffs for his own good. He’s sinking like a stone and getting the Drai treatment is good for him. He now sees how much work he needs to do to be an NHL regular after getting his teeth kicked in every night since Jan 1. Let him develop in Bakersfield and get in a good summer of work – then he’ll be ready for 3rd pair with a steady vet next year. Yes he has talent – but it’s no doing him or the team any favors getting destroyed every night.

  141. Pajamah says:

    vinotintazo:
    go hard or go home.

    Sekera-Hamonic
    Klefbom-Shattenkirk
    anyone cheap-anyone cheap

    Davidson – Cloned Davidson

  142. hunter1909 says:

    haters: Nurse is going to be a top 4 defenseman in 2-3 years time.

    I’m looking forward to Nurse’s number retirement ceremony, where everyone laughs at the early career trade rumors.

    For a pussy whipped team like Edmonton to trade away a young Lucic of defencemen…that’s exactly the Messier for Bernie Nichols moment that might finally end it for me lol.

  143. Lowetide says:

    AsiaOil:
    I’m pretty much baffled why people continue to put GR as a #7 dman at best next year. Did they watch the NAS game? That is what you will see with more and more regularity as he gains experience. Air tight defense and the ability to jump into the play on offense when the opportunity arises.

    Nurse really (and I mean really) needs to go to the AHL for the rest of the season and playoffs for his own good. He’s sinking like a stone and getting the Drai treatment is good for him. He now sees how much work he needs to do to be an NHL regular after getting his teeth kicked in every night since Jan 1. Let him develop in Bakersfield and get in a good summer of work – then he’ll be ready for 3rd pair with a steady vet next year. Yes he has talent – but it’s no doing him or the team any favors getting destroyed every night.

    I think Reinhart will be more than No. 7 for sure next season (and later this), but that brings us back to trading one of the LHs. I rank them (long term)

    1. Klef
    2. Nurse
    3. Reinhart
    4. Davidson

    plus of course Sekera. Edmonton could wait on all of them, surrendering (possibly) year two of McDavid. I do not think they do it, suspect we see additional defenders with more experience. All of those lefties are going to play in the NHL, will all of them play in Edmonton? I do not see it.

  144. Pajamah says:

    hunter1909: They’ve been fighting bloody wars forever.

    Like England and France, who, were they to declare war tomorrow England would have a million volunteers – all swimming the Channel toward Calais with knives in their mouths.

    England and France haven’t gone to war with each other in over 200 years. Mortal enemies are best of friends now.

    China/Japan still have difference in governance and culture, but I doubt there is a war brewing there.

    North Korea is more likely to be attacked by China, and that’s saying something. (Seeing as how they’ve been propped up by China/Russia since the 50’s)

    This isn’t the powder keg where countries are bound by compliance, with treaties saying if you’re attacked, we’ll come help.

    The only chance we see Japan and China in another war, is if WW3 breaks out, and then we’d all have larger problems.

  145. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    It is??

    http://www.630ched.com/oilers-now/

    I’ve checked here but I don’t see it up. I just wanna hear all of that segment.

  146. Centre of attention says:

    I think Hall could rack up ~100 points next seasons if he has a D core behind him that is capable of delivering the puck.

    Godspeed Chiarelli.

  147. vinotintazo says:

    Lowetide: Edmonton could wait on all of them, surrendering (possibly) year two of McDavid. I do not think they do it

    This is my point, lots of options avaiable to upgrade our D. Lots of tradable assets, get it done.

    This team needs next year to mean something. They have to take advantage of McD and Drais ECL.

  148. hunter1909 says:

    Pajamah: The only chance we see Japan and China in another war, is if WW3 breaks out, and then we’d all have larger problems.

    The newly rebuilt and developed nations look most likely to go to war in the near future; like India/Pakistan, Japan/China, Iran/Iraq(or else insert anything that includes ultra-violence such as Iran/Israel), and of course the Koreas. Considering this as fact, the jet stream blowing all that nuclear material over to the West Coast of North America among other things will cause widespread panic, sending real estate prices plummeting.

  149. hunter1909 says:

    Centre of attention:
    I think Hall could rack up ~100 points next seasons if he has a D core behind him that is capable of delivering the puck.

    Godspeed Chiarelli.

    The entire team would simultaneously break out.

  150. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Lowetide,

    It is??

    http://www.630ched.com/oilers-now/

    I’ve checked here but I don’t see it up. I just wanna hear all of that segment.

    Second item
    http://www.630ched.com/oilers-now/

  151. haters says:

    hunter1909: I’m looking forward to Nurse’s number retirement ceremony, where everyone laughs at the early career trade rumors.

    For a pussy whipped team like Edmonton to trade away a young Lucic of defencemen…that’s exactly the Messier for Bernie Nichols moment that might finally end it for me lol.

    I remember when people thought as highly of Gagner…

    Potential is a funny thing. If it not realized or only half realized it makes people look pretty silly. Remember how much potential Shultz had? Man we thought we landed the next Coffee. Or how about Marincin? It’s funny how much we can overvalue people when we see all of their strengths and none of their weaknesses. Theo Pekam comes to mind as well. Nothing like losing and falling over and over to wash all that potential away though.

    I think Nurse is a wonderful talent and will be a good defenseman in time, don’t get me wrong. I love his compete and nastiness too. What I’m not sure on is his ability to properly read plays at a fast pace.
    He looks very lost sometimes and I know he will learn and get better but unless he’s doing it on the 3rd pairing or in Bako, it’s going to cost us games. Davidson has passed him. That says something.

  152. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    Just saw it.

    Thanks, Lowetide. 🙂

  153. Pajamah says:

    hunter1909: The newly rebuilt and developed nations look most likely to go to war in the near future; like India/Pakistan, Japan/China, Iran/Iraq(or else insert anything that includes ultra-violence such as Iran/Israel), and of course the Koreas. Considering this as fact, the jet stream blowing all that nuclear material over to the West Coast of North America among other things will cause widespread panic, sending real estate prices plummeting.

    I will personally destroy Iran up if they fuck up my home equity line of credit application.

  154. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Call me crazy, but if you have Davidson ranked as your #4 LD, then the obvious choice is to have someone play their off side.

    I know it’s harder, I do. But people have been doing it for years and years.

    I just don’t want to move Davidson. I want to lock him up before anyone figures out what he’s actually worth and ride that value contract off into the sunset.

    I realize that makes no sense.

  155. Pajamah says:

    haters: I remember when people thought as highly of Gagner…

    Potential is a funny thing. If it not realized or only half realized it makes people look pretty silly. Remember how much potential Shultz had? Man we thought we landed the next Coffee. Or how about Marincin? It’s funny how much we can overvalue people when we see all of their strengths and none of their weaknesses. Theo Pekam comes to mind as well. Nothing like losing and falling over and over to wash all that potential away though.

    I think Nurse is a wonderful talent and will be a good defenseman in time, don’t get me wrong. I love his compete and nastiness too. What I’m not sure on is his ability to properly read plays at a fast pace.
    He looks very lost sometimes and I know he will learn and get better but unless he’s doing it on the 3rd pairing or in Bako, it’s going to cost us games. Davidson has passed him. That says something.

    I think by pedigree, Nurse has already well surpassed all on that list save Gagner. Marincin, Schultz, “Teddy Peckman” were all depth picks. Gagner and Nurse are top 10 picks.

    I doubt we’re overvaluing him as a fan base. I also highly doubt he goes Cam Barker on us. I may be proven wrong over time, but my guess is he becomes a top pairing guy, failing that, a top 4 for quite a long time.

  156. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    haters,

    I mean Davidson is 24 and played four years of pro hockey before passing Darnell but I guess that’s still a fair comparison.

    I agree that Nurse misses an assignment here or there for sure but that probably is due to him being a rookie playing top pairing minutes on a team saddled with a crazy number of injuries more so than an indication of his inherent ability

  157. LoDog says:

    haters:
    Nurse is going to be a top 4 defenseman in 2-3 years time.
    Not today.
    He most likely (from his trajectory in junior) will be a excellent shut down D. Maybe.
    Not much in the way of offensive chops here.
    We most likely picked the wrong defenseman in his draft.

    Hamonic is already an established RHD in the bigs. A good one to be sure.
    If people are so blind as to not see the value in trading from a position of strength (LHD)to address the biggest weakness on the team (RHD) because of some crazy idea Nurse is the next Chris Pronger? Then I really don’t have much to say to you.

    We have Klefbom and Sekera for years. We need a value contract in the next LHD spot (Davidson).
    The play here is simple if Snow and St Loius play ball.
    Hamonic for Nurse
    Eberle or Yak+++ for Shattenkirk

    We have a solid affordable top 4 defense core
    Draft one of the Finns or replace Ebs or through Free agent wire.
    Or we can wait till 2019 when Nurse unleashes his inner Doughty …

    I’m down with that. I have been pleading to not trade Nurse, he is big and mean and has most of the attributes I love in a hockey player but you can not tell me this is not a massive improvement next year:

    Sekara Shattenkirk
    Klefbom Hamonic
    Reinhart Clendening/RHD

    If the cost to have that defence is Eberle and Nurse and picks/prospects you have to do it.

    Now that I think about it. New GM really likes his guy, Nurse probably has more value at the moment. Ahh you guys probably went over this and I missed it because I have been skipping all the trade Nurse posts. 🙂

    Call it now. Shattenkirk at the deadline and Hamonic at the draft.

  158. haters says:

    Pajamah,

    I don’t see Cam barker at all. But sry I don’t see Pronger either.
    Question. Whom do you move that gives us back a top 4 RHD? Sekera Kelf Nurse Ebs Nuge ?
    Those are the pieces that get it done imo.

  159. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Pajamah: England and France haven’t gone to war with each other in over 200 years. Mortal enemies are best of friends now.

    China/Japan still have difference in governance and culture, but I doubt there is a war brewing there.

    North Korea is more likely to be attacked by China, and that’s saying something. (Seeing as how they’ve been propped up by China/Russia since the 50’s)

    This isn’t the powder keg where countries are bound by compliance, with treaties saying if you’re attacked, we’ll come help.

    The only chance we see Japan and China in another war, is if WW3 breaks out, and then we’d all have larger problems.

    I’ve long subscribed to the theory that Japan has no standing army because their whole Island can be converted into a giant robot, so deep down I kinda want to see that.

  160. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    So if we take Fridge at his word (and there are very good reasons to do this) I think we should also ponder something very quickly.

    Hamonic according to the stats is a very capable defensemen but he seems to play a very similar role that Jeff Petry once played.

    The guy that let Petry walk for a song is still employed with this team in some capacity and Petry’s replacement (albeit a few years young but on a similar contract) is going to cost the Oilers their most consistent scorer over the last five years.

    That’s enough to get the blood boiling right there.

  161. haters says:

    Just to be crystal fu&$$ing clear here?
    I love all Oilers. Cheer like hell for them. Love Nurse Loovvve Nuuugggee…
    But man. I’m sick of cheering for the laughing stock of the league .
    I’m sick of telling my friends that cheer for other teams ” just you waiting till —- and —- come around !! We are gonna be so fu&$ing good !!” …

    Need a balanced defense core now .

  162. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Lowetide,

    Just saw it.

    Thanks, Lowetide. :)

    No worries.

  163. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Call me crazy, but if you have Davidson ranked as your #4 LD, then the obvious choice is to have someone play their off side.

    I know it’s harder, I do.But people have been doing it for years and years.

    I just don’t want to move Davidson.I want to lock him up before anyone figures out what he’s actually worth and ride that value contract off into the sunset.

    I realize that makes no sense.

    Klefbom-Sekera
    Nurse-Davidson
    Reinhart-Gryba

    Lefties and inexperience are issues, if Reinhart had 300 games less an issue imo.

  164. Pajamah says:

    haters:
    Pajamah,

    I don’t see Cam barker at all. But sry I don’t see Pronger either.
    Question. Whom do you move that gives us back a top 4 RHD? Sekera Kelf Nurse Ebs Nuge ?
    Those are the pieces that get it done imo.

    If I were to choose, I would say you deal from where you are strongest, or have the most depth. That may be C one day very soon, but there is just more value on C’s around the league, so if you could do Ebs straight up, you pull the trigger.

    I would move Nurse for Shattenkirk though, and not think twice about it.

    I mean Barker < Nurse< Pronger is a pretty large range, but I tend to think he comes out closer to Pronger in the long run.

    Sekera, Klef, Davidson as LHD is fine when you could potentially have Shattenkirk, Hamonic, anyone as your RHD.

    It shortens the window long term, as in 4-5 seasons, Nurse may surpass Hamonic. Doubt he passes Shattenkirk though, atleast for what Shattenkirk brings skill set wise.

  165. Lowetide says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    So if we take Fridge at his word (and there are very good reasons to do this) I think we should also ponder something very quickly.

    Hamonic according to the stats is a very capable defensemen but he seems to play a very similar role that Jeff Petry once played.

    The guy that let Petry walk for a song is still employed with this team in some capacity and Petry’s replacement (albeit a few years young but on a similar contract)is going to cost the Oilers their most consistent scorer over the last five years.

    That’s enough to get the blood boiling right there.

    Meh. We haven’t seen the trade and don’t know if it is straight up. Chiarelli did (imo) overpay for Reinhart last time dealing with Snow.

  166. Pajamah says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’ve long subscribed to the theory that Japan has no standing army because their whole Island can be converted into a giant robot, so deep down I kinda want to see that.

    I believe that contingency is only in place for repeated Godzilla attacks.

  167. Pajamah says:

    Lowetide: Meh. We haven’t seen the trade and don’t know if it is straight up.Chiarelli did (imo) overpay for Reinhart last time dealing with Snow.

    So you’re saying Snow owes us one?

  168. RexLibris says:

    AsiaOil:
    Hi G – you’ve omitted one crucial factor – debt.

    Japan has long since crossed the event horizon in the this respect having a debt to GDP ratio north of 230% (worst in the world). No country has escaped default from half this level and Japanese tax revenues are also falling due to demographics that cannot sustain the ever rising debts. Japanese pension funds are the largest holders of Japanese government debt, but these have also have turned from net buyers to net sellers as a result of demographics. Their bond market is – to be somewhat direct – kinda fucked and productivity increases are just pissing against the wind. They willprint yen to buy Japanese government bond until the whole damn thing implodes which is the foundation of Kyle Bass’ bet against JGB. The only alternative is for Abe to do the exact opposite of the existing strategy – cut spending, let interest rates rise and deal with the mountain of unsustainable debt they’ve built up. I doubt that happens – nothing in their behavior supports this – they will destroy the currency and issue a new one after they default. Debts that cannot be sustained will be defaulted and there is no escape from this reality outside of Krugman’s fantasy world.

    Happy Friday and konichiwa!

    This is great information, thanks. I had no idea their GDP ratio was that out of whack. My god, you’d be flayed alive by the right, left and everyone in between if you ran that kind of ratio here.

  169. Alpine says:

    I’d do a deal surrounding Eberle for Hamonic, and I don’t think I would hesitate too much about it. Hamonic w/o the trade request wouldn’t have decreased value and there’s the unknown of someone else snatching him up before the price truly drops.

    Hamonic is signed to a sweet cap hit and likely wouldn’t be available without the trade request, in which case you’d expect to have to trade Eberle for him anyways. With minor cheap parts involve you either save money on the cap, or add someone useful in addition to TH. This can be a really good deal for us, and makes sense because have term left on their deals, and NYI will likely need to replace Okposo.

  170. rickithebear says:

    Pajram:

    you are of the off d mind set of a fan raised on oilers!

    I became one 92-94 .
    superstore
    Deal 2 tickets; 2 popcorn; 2 hot dogs; 2 pop $50.

    It is a cap world.

    it is cheaper to pay def d to prevent HCS at even and Penalty kill.
    than to pay Offensive D large sums of cap space to yeild high SC rate
    and
    racking a lot of empty calorie PP points. (may not yeild a + GD affect)

    When the def D give up lesser HSCA and a lower EVGA results.
    The kind of Cap hit forwards required are much cheaper than the 5-6M required to outscore shit box protection.

    We have had Shite Def D for 8 years.

    We are at a point were we can fianlly say that we have ddepth that can protect the house.

    I damn sure want the Even puck Moving Talent of a Faulk.
    But that embarrqasing bad.
    Box protection is the thing we have suffered with.

    it is a waste of Millions of forward cap space to break even.

    Get me Def D that can move the puck. Sure!
    But not at the sake of Defence.
    that is a step back!

    But you guys hammer Fayne for his Passing.

    I read this thinking fayne avg 17.35 a Night in NJ cup Run
    7.01 HSCA/60 and .85 EVGA/60.

    That is playoff Defence!

  171. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Meh. We haven’t seen the trade and don’t know if it is straight up.Chiarelli did (imo) overpay for Reinhart last time dealing with Snow.

    Just read the ON piece.

    Sounds about right. I think we’ll be gnashing our teeth in short order here, even though I’ll still be surprised if Snow moves a defenseman going into the playoff stretch. That seems…well, bold.

    I’m wondering if Chiarelli is trying to shoehorn Schultz into the deal to see if he can’t leverage that to water down Snow’s asking price.

  172. LoDog says:

    Last spam, promise.

    Unless I missed some info Snow has stated he wants a d back. So you can forget Eberle for Hamonic.

    I would feel a lot better about trading Nurse for Hamonic if Shattenkirk has already been acquired for Eberle.

    Have a nice day everyone.

  173. Pajamah says:

    rickithebear:
    Pajram:

    you are of the off d mind set of a fan raised on oilers!

    I became one 92-94 .
    superstore
    Deal 2 tickets; 2 popcorn; 2 hot dogs; 2 pop $50.

    It is a cap world.

    it is cheaper to pay def d to prevent HCS at even and Penalty kill.
    than to pay Offensive D large sums of cap space to yeild high SC rate
    and
    racking a lot of empty calorie PP points. (may not yeild a + GD affect)

    When the def D give up lesser HSCA and a lower EVGA results.
    The kind of Cap hit forwards required are much cheaper than the 5-6M required to outscore shit box protection.

    We have had Shite Def D for8 years.

    We are at a point were we can fianlly say that we have ddepththat can protect the house.

    I damn sure want the Even puck Moving Talent of a Faulk.
    But that embarrqasing bad.
    Box protection is the thing we have suffered with.

    it is a waste of Millions of forward cap space to break even.

    Get me Def D that can move the puck. Sure!
    But not at the sake of Defence.
    that is a step back!

    But you guys hammer Fayne for his Passing.

    I read this thinking fayne avg 17.35 a Night in NJ cup Run
    7.01 HSCA/60 and .85 EVGA/60.

    That is playoff Defence!

    I agree its important, but there needs to be balance. And I’m not sure prior to this season, but our D this year is last in points scored. And not having shooters is one thing, but bad puck moving D men who cant even get the puck to the highly talented forwards.

    That’s where I see the largest disconnect is with this team. We need guys like Fayne, and we need a guy like Shattenkirk/Faulk. The puck has to move in the right direction.

    We give up the most shots against, and our D help us less than any other 7 man unit in the NHL. We are near the bottom in GA again, and our team sv% is up from .901 to .914.

    Can we atleast agree, balance the D with sortie stoppers, and puck movers, and this team will get exponentially better.

  174. rickithebear says:

    HSCA/60 for Edm and NYI D.

    Davidson 9.62
    Klefbom 10.12
    Dehann 10.34
    Boychuk 10.51
    Reinhart 10.56
    Fayne 11.36
    Sekera 11.44
    Leddy 11.83
    Zidlicky 11.89
    Hamonic 12.11 just the kind of Box D we are used too
    Gryba 13.02

  175. John Chambers says:

    Some decent UFA D-men would could help solidify the top-4:

    Byfuglien
    Demers
    Goligoski
    Yandle
    Coburn

    If the Oilers say trade Eberle for Hamonic, they should have some significant cap space to add a UFA player by outbidding a competitor. What the Oilers shouldn’t surrender is TERM.

    The best strategy, IMO, as most of these defensemen have some probability of their play falling off a cliff in 24-36 months, is to offer an OUTRAGEOUS 2-year contract.

    $12M / 2 for Demers, or $17M over two for Byfuglien. Crazy, no?

    The next two years could feature a top 4 of:
    Kelf – Hamonic
    Sekara – UFA
    Nurse – Davidson
    Reinhart

    We could outrageously overpay a UFA for 2 seasons while McDavid is on his ELC and if I’m Peter Chiarelli I can leverage a very short window to ice a mix of veterans and promising youth.

  176. fifthcartel says:

    If they get Hamonic, they really need an offensive top 4 guy and I might be able to start getting really excited.

  177. rickithebear says:

    Pajamah: I agree its important, but there needs to be balance. And I’m not sure prior to this season, but our D this year is last in points scored. And not having shooters is one thing, but bad puck moving D men who cant even get the puck to the highly talented forwards.

    That’s where I see the largest disconnect is with this team. We need guys like Fayne, and we need a guy like Shattenkirk/Faulk. The puck has to move in the right direction.

    We give up the most shots against, and our D help us less than any other 7 man unit in the NHL. We are near the bottom in GA again, and our team sv% is up from .901 to .914.

    Can we atleast agree, balance the D with sortie stoppers, and puck movers, and this team will get exponentially better.

    Weve played
    Klefbom
    Fayne
    Davidson
    Sekera
    Reinhart
    together for 3-4 games this year.

    KLef-Fayne
    Davidson-Sekera
    Reinhart- Clandening

    for 20 gm please.

  178. fifthcartel says:

    Interesting Stauffer mentioning Anaheim sending a contract back that would equal to 6 million if they were into a scoring winger, likely Eberle.

    If we assume it’s Vatanen (1.2m at the moment).

    Silfverberg is making 3.75m and on pace for 29 points, had 39 last year. Right shot RW and is 6’2 196, seems like a Chiarelli-type addition?

    That’s about 5M right there and Vatanen will likely get more than 5.

    Seems like he has good stats too (Silfverberg).

  179. haters says:

    rickithebear:
    HSCA/60 for Edm and NYI D.

    Davidson 9.62
    Klefbom 10.12
    Dehann 10.34
    Boychuk 10.51
    Reinhart 10.56
    Fayne 11.36
    Sekera 11.44
    Leddy 11.83
    Zidlicky 11.89
    Hamonic 12.11just the kind of Box D we are used too
    Gryba 13.02

    And Nurse?

  180. haters says:

    Could someone post a good place to get stats ? War on ice is ok but limited a bit

  181. Pouzar says:

    If the Oilers are remotely healthy we are talking about playoffs in a shitty division and arguing whether or not we should apologize for it.

    As far as Nurse goes, at some point you have to commit to developing at least one Defenseman with the tools this guy has or you’ll be chasing the mythical #1 guy till the cows come home. Until then do what G says and exploit the one advantage you do have and that’s center depth. So that means for Gord’s sake you don’t trade Nuge. If you have to down the road due to cap constraints then you do it then and hope his value is higher than it is now.

    Until then……

    F^CK THE MOOSE….F^CK THOSE GUYS!!!!!!!!!!!!

  182. Lowetide says:

    haters:
    Could someone post a good place to get stats ? War on ice is ok but limited a bit

    War-on-Ice is pretty extensive. Anything specific you are looking for? I do like this site
    http://www.naturalstattrick.com/

  183. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’m not against trading Nurse, but I prefer the idea of trading Sekera in a couple years.

    we like Klefbom on the top pair at 22, what’s to keep Nurse from doing the same? when Klef was 20 he was making his mistakes in OKC, not on the big stage. I remember how great Nurse looked in his first dozen games in Edmonton this season. Send him to Bako for the rest of the season.

    trade Eberle for Hamonic, draft Laine–>have him tear the AHL next season. Sign a UFA like Demers/Buff if you can.

  184. Snowman says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I don’t think it’s many people’s first choice to trade Nurse. I think generally almost everyone would trade Eberle first if you had to give up a “substantial” roster player.

  185. commonfan14 says:

    I wonder if Hall is going to play with John Scott.

    If he does, I like the chances of Scott cashing a couple.

  186. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    commonfan14:
    I wonder if Hall is going to play with John Scott.

    If he does, I like the chances of Scott cashing a couple.

    If Scott scores I expect s full rookie-yak-slide-celly

  187. Centre of attention says:

    People are telling me Draisaitl is going to suffer from McDavids return, they tell me he’s going to get bumped down to the “second or third line” They also tell me to possibly think about trading McDavid.

    These are the kind of people you make money from in fantasy hockey. Drai will benefit because of reduced work load, not the other way around lol.

    Sometimes I wonder how much research these people do before coming to such curious conclusions.

    Source: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/fantasy-central-looking-for-a-mcdeal/

  188. Pouzar says:

    Does January have 28 days?

  189. Johnny Larue says:

    My two cents this is not fantasy football Justin Faulk is not available either is OEL the cap is not going up. There are going to be players that shake loose. Keep our booty that we have suffered hard and long for get rid of the dead weight use our cap space wisley and we will be more than fine. We have been so decimated by injuries this year to key players that everyone is panicking . Once we get heathy things will take off and with a few more addition’s we are going to be set. We don’t need to trade away our future because maturation and the fall out from other teams getting under the cap will get us to the promised land.

  190. AsiaOil says:

    I also think that getting a legit top pair RHD is most important – we need a guy to push everyone but Klef down a notch. Another second pair guy would be nice next year – but may be redundant 2 years from now as Nurse/GR progress. The top pair RHD is key – with offense would be nice – but we may have to settle for a more 2 way guy like Hamonic.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’m not against trading Nurse, but I prefer the idea of trading Sekera in a couple years.

    we like Klefbom on the top pair at 22, what’s to keep Nurse from doing the same? when Klef was 20 he was making his mistakes in OKC, not on the big stage. I remember how great Nurse looked in his first dozen games in Edmonton this season. Send him to Bako for the rest of the season.

    trade Eberle for Hamonic, draft Laine–>have him tear the AHL next season. Sign a UFA like Demers/Buff if you can.

  191. 719 says:

    Hamonic is an off-season move now (I think). I doubt Snow would get rid of one his best d-men with the need to make a run in the playoffs.

    Chia and Snow do seem like logical trading partners, especially considering their history.

    Any trade/signing of a more offensive D-Man will wait until the Oilers see what Clendening can do.

    We will have to wait to the off-season to see what Chia has up his sleeve.

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