VALUE CONTRACTS AND NOT WASTING AT BATS

Brandon Davidson began the year at the lowest rung of the NHL depth chart, and did not break from the starting gate like a bat out of hell. As Todd McLellan and Peter Chiarelli figured out the incumbent veterans (they were not very good), the young man rose through the ranks. At this point, most of us peg Davidson as the third best defensive option on the entire damn team. His contract next year should be a bargain and hopefully there will be some term.

Peter Chiarelli claimed Adam Clendening during the shutdown week, and I think at-bats for the new guy should be plentiful. Treat him like he could be the next Brandon Davidson. Why? He is not 20, but rather 23 (Davidson is 24), and he may be found money. Justin Schultz scored 3-6-9 in 36 games during the first half, can Clendening cover that in the final 32? I think we might be about to find out, and if he is, the Oilers may have added TWO genuinely useful hockey defensemen not named Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart during the year. That would be a positive developmental arrow.

The Bakersfield Condors have been unleashing the hounds offensively this week, and the January totals are fantastic. I have mentioned this before, but the turn of the calendar seems to light a fire for some players. Here are the performances for the month:

  1. Brad Hunt 2, 1-3-4 (2.00)
  2. Josh Winquist 7, 4-5-9 (1.29)
  3. Tyler Pitlick 7, 3-4-7 (1.00)
  4. Andrew Miller 9, 3-5-8 (0.89)
  5. Joey Laleggia 7, 3-3-6 (0.86)
  6. Matt Ford 9, 4-3-7 (0.78)
  7. Jordan Oesterle 11, 2-6-8 (0.73)
  8. Jujhar Khaira 6, 1-3-4 (0.67)
  9. Ryan Hamilton 11, 4-3-7 (0.64)
  10. Zack Kassian 6, 2-1-3 (0.50)
  11. Marco Roy 10, 2-2-4 (0.40)
  12. Josh Currie 11, 0-4-4 (0.36)
  13. Kellen Jones 10, 1-2-3 (0.30)
  14. Phil McRae 7, 0-2-2 (0.29)
  15. David Musil 11, 0-3-3 (0.27)
  16. Greg Chase 4, 0-1-1 (0.25)
  17. Griffin Reinhart 9, 1-1-2 (0.22)
  18. Kyle Platzer 5, 0-1-1 (0.20)
  19. Dillon Simpson 11, 1-1-2 (0.18)
  20. Martin Gernat 7, 0-1-1 (0.14)
  21. Kale Kessy 8, 1-0-1 (0.13)
  22. Niki Nikitin 8, 0-1-1 (0.13)
  23. Mitch Moroz 9, 0-1-1 (0.11)

Young prospects in italics. Josh Winquist, still without an NHL contract, and Tyler Pitlick, likely in his final months as an Oilers prospect, lead the way. Depending on how the summer goes, we might be looking to some of these prospects as value contracts one year from now. Who is the next Brandon Davidson? That is the mystery. Is Tyler Pitlick, at 24, ready for the NHL? I have always cheered for him but at this point betting on him is unwise. If he makes it, we celebrate.

RETURN OF THE VOLLMAN

OIL VOLLMAN JAN 30I haven’t used the Vollman in awhile, and do understand the limitations, but for me they offer a quick and effective glance at who is facing the tough opposition and how they are performing. Vollman can be found here. Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson and Mark Fayne look good by this metric, Andrej Sekera less so but I will use my Luba mulligan on him (Innocent, with an explanation), and argue his number with Fayne would render a far prettier bubble color.

FINAL 32 ON THE BLUE

Along with playing the hell out of Clendening, I think there are some things worth talking about on Oilers D in the remaining months.

  • Brandon Davidson looks ready to go, and that is a big deal. For me, he is going to be one of the four best options on the blue and should have a feature role now to the end of the year.
  • Oscar Klefbom news remains sparse (he has played 30 of 52 games) and that is not terrific, based on how the Oilers release information. WILL we see him AT ALL in the second half? At this point, I suspect we should probably assume he will play 50 games or less during the 2015-16 season.
  • Andrej Sekera—Mark Fayne is working as a tandem, I sincerely hope Todd McLellan keeps them together. They are 50.4 percent 5×5 Corsi for together and give Edmonton something they can count on.
  • Darnell Nurse has been backed off from the top competition (Sekera pairing) but still plays a helluva lot (last two games before the break: 22:49 and 21:23) and was minus five in the final two contests before the break. Hockey-reference has his defensive zone starts at 53.8 percent.

With all those things said, what about running this as a six after the break:

  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Davidson—Clendening
  • Nurse/Reinhart—Gryba

With Justin Schultz in the pressbox until trade. You could run Nurse—Davidson but I like the idea of giving Clendening a full shot in these final games. Fair?

I have been thinking about RW over the last few days, and have come to the conclusion the Oilers have a chance to run a far less expensive 1-2-3 at the position should the need arise. First, let’s look at the numbers:

righr wings

  • Jordan Eberle, despite all the injuries, is having a pretty nice season. The 5×5/60 number has been trending in a good direction for some time and I bet he is around 2.00/60 by season’s end. As I have mentioned previously, ideally PC finds a way to add defense without tearing up this forward group. Eberle can play with any of the Oilers centers and flourish, I think we can say that without actually seeing him with 97.
  • Teddy Purcell has posted a great season, no doubt this is a productive player delivering at the high end of his abilities. Suspect he is dealt, but for me this is a player who has earned consideration, and if signed I will be pleased.
  • Nail Yakupov has posted solid numbers across the board and is on pace for a 30-point (in 60 games) season. If you look at the names he is playing with since they broke up the McDavid band, that is solid production.
  • Zack Kassian should not be underestimated as a possible top 6F option for next season, this is a productive player. If you look at his career, Kassian has been a solid producer and Chiarelli likely factors him in as a possible option on the top 2lines next season—with good reason.

I think the Oilers have to look at those left-handed defensemen and draft picks as their currency for trade, and possibly move away from dealing a RW as primary option. Signing Purcell to a lesser deal would allow the Oilers to proceed while also trading Eberle, but for me he remains the best in the group and keeping him should remain the number one option. Look for the lefty blue for trade answers, that is my guess.

 

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100 Responses to "VALUE CONTRACTS AND NOT WASTING AT BATS"

  1. HiddenDarts says:

    One of the ideas I haven’t seen posted is maybe the Islanders DO want Eberle, and have asked, but Chia said no.

    Let’s face it, the Islanders are over a barrel here with Hamonic. Chia is a big brain with lots of experience who knows this all too well.

    Other teams in the region don’t really have a lot to offer, so…

    Not saying I don’t see it happening, but maybe Chia wants Hamonic plus, which would certainly give Snow serious pause.

  2. flyfish1168 says:

    Good morning LT and everyone. I just need some clarification here on Oscar. From want is said above is it your speculation or some found intel? Thanks for the clarification.

  3. Braden28 says:

    If Eberle goes for a D and Purcell walks as a UFA or is traded at the deadline, we’re left with Yak and Kassian (assuming he signs). I’m not comfortable with that at all!

    Trade one, not both…

  4. Woogie63 says:

    For at least the last two years we have spent the first 15 games fiddling with our defence pairings and personal. If we use the next 30 games to figure our these questions can we have a great October 2016?

  5. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    Good morning LT and everyone. I just need some clarification here on Oscar. From want is said above is it your speculation or some found intel? Thanks for the clarification.

    Speculation on my part. I will always link if I have specific information.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    For at least the last two years we have spent the first 15 games fiddling with our defence pairings and personal.If we use the next 30 games to figure our these questions can we have a great October 2017?

    The key to that: STOP FIRING THE DAMNED HEAD COACH!!

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Speculation on my part. I will always link if I have specific information.

    Thanks, I can stay positive.

  8. DRFNsuperstar says:

    I don’t think Chia would so obviously throw away a season by trading his top two right wingers. If Nuge were healthy it would be a different story, because Drai would slide over to the wing. So if Purcell and Eberle go a NHL calibre forward has to be coming back (Tom Wilson, Chris Stewart, Casey Cizikas?)

    After the deadline:

    Hall-Nuge-Drai
    Pouliot-Mcdavid-Yak/Kass
    Pakarinen-Cizikas-Yak/Kass
    Wagon line

    Sekera-Hamonic
    Klefbom-Nurse
    Davidson-Clendening

  9. Woogie63 says:

    Lowetide,

    Ha, but true, I think that is solved.

    BUT

    At this point in the season we still have lots of Training Camp type questions about a lot of our defence, I thought we would have more answers, but we have more questions.

  10. square_wheels says:

    Quick question – is there a trade freeze during the AS events ?

  11. Lowetide says:

    square_wheels:
    Quick question – is there a trade freeze during the AS events ?

    No, although Gary would probably give the hairy eyeball to trades that happen before the actual AS game.

  12. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    Oh then let’s do a deal just to further rub poo in his face.

    Connor McDavid baby – woooooooooot !!!!

    Still feels a bit like a dream 🙂

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: No, although Gary would probably give the hairy eyeball to trades that happen before the actual AS game.

    Yeah I’m pretty sure they have a gentlemans agreement that trades don’t get announced during this period, or widemans suspension or anything that might take attention from the all star game or the winter classic.

    The series of games after the all star game are all winnable with the Isles and wild being the only good teams. If they want to go on a streak this would be a good time. I’m not expecting playoffs but I do hope they take some other teams down with them

  14. tcho says:

    Something that I can’t remember being brought up re. Hamonic is that he effectively comes with a restricted NMC attached going forward (near Winnipeg teams only). This diminishes his value as an asset. I would imagine that Chia’s identified this factor and is using it in negotiations.

  15. Pouzar says:

    Braden28:
    If Eberle goes for a D and Purcell walks as a UFA or is traded at the deadline, we’re left with Yak and Kassian (assuming he signs). I’m not comfortable with that at all!

    Trade one, not both…

    I’m with you. If Ebs is traded I would like to see Purcell back on a short contract.

  16. GCW_69 says:

    If you could trade Eberle for Lindholm from Anahiem and then flip Klefbom to the Islanders for Hamonic, would you do it?

    Leaves you with

    Lindholm – Hamonic

    Sekera – Fayne

    Davidson – Gryba/Reinhart

    with Nurse rebuilding his confidence in Bakersfield.

  17. square_wheels says:

    tcho,

    I recall an article tied to a conversation with Maloney indicating Hamonic was considering Denver and that the Yotes were not told he wouldn’t go there.

    There is something more to this Hamonic story, I’ve said that for months.

    Here is the article – http://arizonasports.com/story/461428/coyotes-trade-rumors-islanders-travis-hamonic/

  18. Goilers says:

    Hey Lowetide! What’s the deal with Winquist. He is one of the youngest players on the team, is leading the Condors in points per game and still isn’t signed to an NHL deal. He’s been outperforming pretty much all the Oilers prospects not named Leon or Connor for the last year and a half and then see guys like Braden Christoffer get a deal ahead of him. What’s the knock on him? I’m worried this hometown kid is going to get scooped up by someone else and contribute elsewhere. What do you think, LT? Thx

  19. Lowetide says:

    Goilers:
    Hey Lowetide! What’s the deal with Winquist. He is one of the youngest players on the team, is leading the Condors in points per game and still isn’t signed to an NHL deal. He’s been outperforming pretty much all the Oilers prospects not named Leon or Connor for the last year and a half and then see guys like Braden Christoffer get a deal ahead of him. What’s the knock on him? I’m worried this hometown kid is going to get scooped up by someone else and contribute elsewhere. What do you think, LT? Thx

    I think they should sign him now. Actually just wrote about him

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/1/30/oh-for-crying-out-loud

  20. stush18 says:

    Goilers,

    He’s been one of my fave prospects since his first tryout. Kinda reminds me of Ray Whitney.

    I wonder if he’s not aggressive enough for chiarelli. If you’re not a physical player you’d better be able to score and score well. The 50 man list is also at 49 if I’m not mistaken, so in sure they’re waiting until after the deadline.

  21. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Next year represents an opportunity in Bakersfield to finally ice some prospect/borderline players as AHL vets. To me Pitlick sticks around as a Hamilton replacement. Khaira can actually produce some offence. Oesterle and Lallegia can eat Hunt’s minutes.

    I know we’ve been critical of the non-prospect production, but it finally looks like some of these guys might be figuring it out to the point that the team will be able to compete without over relying on non-prospect production.

  22. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Goilers:
    Hey Lowetide! What’s the deal with Winquist. He is one of the youngest players on the team, is leading the Condors in points per game and still isn’t signed to an NHL deal. He’s been outperforming pretty much all the Oilers prospects not named Leon or Connor for the last year and a half and then see guys like Braden Christoffer get a deal ahead of him. What’s the knock on him? I’m worried this hometown kid is going to get scooped up by someone else and contribute elsewhere. What do you think, LT? Thx

    I don’t think his production has been so good that someone swoops in with an NHL offer mid season. If we don’t give him a two way this summer though I could see losing him.

  23. Pouzar says:

    Ryan Holt ‏@CondorsHolty 1h1 hour ago
    Condors wrap Jan. today:
    Winquist: 7 GP (4g-5a)
    Miller: 9 GP (3g-5a)
    Oesterle: 11 GP (2g-6a)
    Pitlick: 7 GP (3g-4a)
    LaLeggia: 7 GP (3g-3a)

  24. Pouzar says:

    Wow…here is a better view of the Kassian goal last night.
    Kid’s got skill.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CZ-znsWUAAA64J8.mp4

  25. Goilers says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I was thinking more off-season or maybe post deadline if they move out a couple of guys. Hope they take a chance on him!

  26. Pouzar says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC
    Torres (SJ) clears waivers

  27. Goilers says:

    stush18,

    Ya, good point on the contract situation. Maybe after PC moves a couple guys out at the deadline they will sign him.

  28. Goilers says:

    Lowetide,

    Thx LT, good article!

  29. Woogie63 says:

    Who is this Pitlick kid? Can he skate?

  30. HenryDrix says:

    Been reading the tea leaves on fixing what ails these Oilers for some time, and in the matter of the potential Eberle trade, my gut tells Chia wants to run Top 2 lines as follows:
    Drai-Hall-Purcell
    McDavid-Yak-Pouliot

    Both lines have had very good success this year when all were healthy. Both lines have nice mix of size and skill.

    I am convinced Chia would prefer the lower cost, bigger, and more defensively responsible Purcell to Eberle, mainly due to his cap hit, size, and the proven chemistry with Hall and Drai (what a player!). More cap room for summer additions.

    I would be fine with that (would miss certain parts of Eb’s game), IF I was confident Purcell could continue his current performance over the next 2-3 years. Purcell is likely having a 250 year flood event this year. Yak has top line talent, and Kassian could move up to 2RW. We do have some RW depth.

    The best teams have a stud D, and that should be the priority. If it costs Eberle then so be it.

    Is Hamonic a legit #1 D?

    I still miss Pronger. What a season that was.

  31. G Money says:

    Random thought:

    The Kassian experiment is going about as well as hoped. As the saying goes … “he’s an asshole, but he’s our asshole.”

    And that’s something of note on a team that is renowned for being easy to intimidate and easy to play against.

    The other item of speculation is that one of Chia’s off season big dollar targets is going to be Lucic. While it’s fun to think of Connor McDavid flanked by Kassian and Lucic, I’m not sure that’s likely or realistic. But a Lucic-McDavid-Yak line? Oooh boy, I would like to see that.

    That said, actually having Lucic on this team is something I think most of us dread to some extent, partly because of the ludicrously high cost it is going to incur in cap dollars, and partly because of the thought that Lucic had one good season, and is otherwise way overrated.

    I’m not sure I don’t still think that, BUT I thought it might be of interest to repost an updated LA Kings player dashboard. Note where Lucic sits on a ferocious possession team:

    http://i.imgur.com/rgsmpQ0.png

    Maybe not that overrated?

  32. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Random thought:

    The Kassian experiment is going about as well as hoped.As the saying goes … “he’s an asshole, but he’s our asshole.”

    And that’s something of note on a team that is renowned for being easy to intimidate and easy to play against.

    The other item of speculation is that one of Chia’s off season big dollar targets is going to be Lucic.While it’s fun to think of Connor McDavid flanked by Kassian and Lucic, I’m not sure that’s likely or realistic. But a Lucic-McDavid-Yak line?Oooh boy, I would like to see that.

    That said, actually having Lucic on this team is something I think most of us dread to some extent, partly because of the ludicrously high cost it is going to incur in cap dollars, and partly because of the thought that Lucic had one good season, and is otherwise way overrated.

    I’m not sure I don’t still think that, BUT I thought it might be of interest to repost an updated LA Kings player dashboard.Note where Lucic sits on a ferocious possession team:

    http://i.imgur.com/rgsmpQ0.png

    Maybe not that overrated?

    I have maintained through the piece that if Lucic reaches free agency, Chiarelli is aggressive. No doubt in my mind. As a Bruins fan, I can say Lucic was effective, and I do worry about him in his 30s.

  33. PunkInDrublic says:

    If NYI is having trouble re-signing Okposo, I can see them wanting a replacement in Eberle. That frees them up to flip Okposo at the trade deadline. They can’t let Okposo walk away for nothing, and can’t lose his production, so I think Ebs for Hamonic is a very real option. Maybe an Okposo move nets the functional D they are looking for.

    I’d be fine with Yak, Kassian, Purcell or even Drai on the right.

  34. Pouzar says:

    G Money,

    My brain can’t reconcile Dustin Brown being that high.

  35. Woodguy says:

    If anyone hasn’t seen it, this is ESPN’s mini-documentary on Hamonic and how he helps kids who have lost their fathers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYbeIw2V1ZU

  36. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Random thought:

    The Kassian experiment is going about as well as hoped.As the saying goes … “he’s an asshole, but he’s our asshole.”

    And that’s something of note on a team that is renowned for being easy to intimidate and easy to play against.

    The other item of speculation is that one of Chia’s off season big dollar targets is going to be Lucic.While it’s fun to think of Connor McDavid flanked by Kassian and Lucic, I’m not sure that’s likely or realistic. But a Lucic-McDavid-Yak line?Oooh boy, I would like to see that.

    That said, actually having Lucic on this team is something I think most of us dread to some extent, partly because of the ludicrously high cost it is going to incur in cap dollars, and partly because of the thought that Lucic had one good season, and is otherwise way overrated.

    I’m not sure I don’t still think that, BUT I thought it might be of interest to repost an updated LA Kings player dashboard.Note where Lucic sits on a ferocious possession team:

    http://i.imgur.com/rgsmpQ0.png

    Maybe not that overrated?

    Here’s Lucic’s 5v5 pts/60 over his career:

    2007-2008 Season MILANLUCIC 1.7
    2008-2009 Season MILANLUCIC 2.21
    2009-2010 Season MILANLUCIC 1.68
    2010-2011 Season MILANLUCIC 2.64
    2011-2012 Season MILANLUCIC 2.56
    2012-2013 Season MILANLUCIC 2.22
    2013-2014 Season MILANLUCIC 2.35
    2014-2015 Season MILANLUCIC 1.81
    2015-2016 Season MILANLUCIC 2.05

    That’s sustained 1st line production with a little blip last year.

    He plays with 1st line players, but he produces in that spot as well.

    He turns 28 in June.

  37. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    Aren’t the Oilers up to 49 contracts right now? Wouldn’t they want to offload a contract or two before they signed Winquist (if they in fact want to sign him)?

  38. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: Here’s Lucic’s 5v5 pts/60 over his career:

    2007-2008 SeasonMILANLUCIC1.7
    2008-2009 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.21
    2009-2010 SeasonMILANLUCIC1.68
    2010-2011 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.64
    2011-2012 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.56
    2012-2013 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.22
    2013-2014 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.35
    2014-2015 SeasonMILANLUCIC1.81
    2015-2016 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.05

    That’s sustained 1st line production with a little blip last year.

    He plays with 1st line players, but he produces in that spot as well.

    He turns 28 in June.

    With the black hole that is D can we afford this luxury?

    I am with LT, I think Chia tries hard.
    Most of the verbal I am hearing is that he loves it L.A.

  39. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Random thought:

    The Kassian experiment is going about as well as hoped.As the saying goes … “he’s an asshole, but he’s our asshole.”

    And that’s something of note on a team that is renowned for being easy to intimidate and easy to play against.

    The other item of speculation is that one of Chia’s off season big dollar targets is going to be Lucic.While it’s fun to think of Connor McDavid flanked by Kassian and Lucic, I’m not sure that’s likely or realistic. But a Lucic-McDavid-Yak line?Oooh boy, I would like to see that.

    That said, actually having Lucic on this team is something I think most of us dread to some extent, partly because of the ludicrously high cost it is going to incur in cap dollars, and partly because of the thought that Lucic had one good season, and is otherwise way overrated.

    I’m not sure I don’t still think that, BUT I thought it might be of interest to repost an updated LA Kings player dashboard.Note where Lucic sits on a ferocious possession team:

    http://i.imgur.com/rgsmpQ0.png

    Maybe not that overrated?

    Here’s Lucic’s RelCor over his career:

    2007-2008 Season MILANLUCIC -0.4
    2008-2009 Season MILANLUCIC 3
    2009-2010 Season MILANLUCIC 0.4
    2010-2011 Season MILANLUCIC 11.8
    2011-2012 Season MILANLUCIC 7.7
    2012-2013 Season MILANLUCIC 11.3
    2013-2014 Season MILANLUCIC 0.3
    2014-2015 Season MILANLUCIC -0.5
    2015-2016 Season MILANLUCIC 10.7

    Tough last couple of year in BOS (comparatively, his raw CF% was 52 over those two years)

    This year he has a 59.5%CF with Carter and 58.1%CF with Kopitar.

    Here’s an interesting WOWY from this year.

    Carter w/ Lucic 59.5%
    Carter w/o Lucic 50.7%
    Lucic w/o Carter 58.5%

    Obviously the fall off from Lucic to the other LW (Pearson, Brown, King) is more significant than going from Carter to Kopitar, but its still a feather in his cap.

  40. Derek says:

    HenryDrix:
    Been reading the tea leaves on fixing what ails these Oilers for some time, and in the matter of the potential Eberle trade, my gut tells Chia wants to run Top 2 lines as follows:
    Drai-Hall-Purcell
    McDavid-Yak-Pouliot

    Both lines have had very good success this year when all were healthy.Both lines have nice mix of size and skill.

    I am convinced Chia would prefer the lower cost, bigger, and more defensively responsible Purcell to Eberle, mainly due to his cap hit, size, and the proven chemistry with Hall and Drai (what a player!).More cap room to woo Seabrook here in the summer…..

    I would be fine with that (would miss certain parts of Eb’s game), IF I was confident Purcell could continue his current performance over the next 2-3 years.Purcell is likely having a 250 year flood event this year.Yak has top line talent, and Kassian could move up to 2RW.We do have some RW depth.

    The best teams have a stud D, and that should be the priority.If it costs Eberle then so be it.

    Is Hamonic a legit #1 D?

    I still miss Pronger.What a season that was.

    Seabrook is signed through 2024.

    Hamonic doesn’t have the offense you normally think of when talking about the top defenders in the game, but he plays the other teams best and does it well for 3.8 per year. That’s huge.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: With the black hole that is D can we afford this luxury?

    I am with LT, I think Chia tries hard.
    Most of the verbal I am hearing is that he loves it L.A.

    Fixing the D and adding Lucic are not mutually exclusive.

    Especially if they trade a $6MM player for $3.875 Hamonic.

  42. Water Fire says:

    Winquist has to be on the radar. He isn’t that small, and those numbers are heading into lofty heights are they not?

  43. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    Yup. I think Chia tries to get him. It’s the price ($, term) that I fear.

    Pouzar,

    Nor I.

    Woodguy,

    Huh, I guess I should have actually looked at the data, hey? Way better than what the verbal – I’ve even heard ‘washed up’ – around him has implied.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar,

    Most of the verbal I am hearing is that he loves it L.A.

    LAK has $63.22MM committed to 12 F, 4D and 1G.

    They need to add 1F, 2D and 1G for probably under $10MM

    If Lucic is that one F at $7MM it blows up the cap.

    Now Lombardi is a slippery bastard and might figure out of way to null Brown’s contract while Gary Bettman waves pompoms, but its a tough spot.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Its interesting to note that Hamonic’s actual $$ moves up to $4.875 starting next year so swapping him for a $6MM player only adds $1.125MM in real dollars to their payroll.

    For a budget team like NYI that’s an important fact.

  46. G Money says:

    Derek,

    Yup, Seabrook (a surprise I think) signed a big $ contract with the Hawks this summer.

    I do think Seabrook was at risk of being considered overvalued, partnered with Keith who is terrific – and both benefiting from the fact that it’s usually Hjalmarsson who takes on the toughs. Plus age is a concern.

    If Chia was in on the Seabrook sweepstakes, we may have dodged a bullet, because MAN has he struggled this year:

    http://i.imgur.com/CkIS6Dg.png

    (I’m not sure Corsi tells a very good tale for defensemen, but it certainly tells us something, and where Seabrook sits this year is a bit astonishing)

  47. HenryDrix says:

    Derek,

    Ah, forgot about the Seabrook signing, It makes trading for that type of player even more pressing. Oscar may develop into that, or even Nurse, but if we don’t make playoffs next year, hope is all but gone.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    Pouzar,

    Most of the verbal I am hearing is that he loves it L.A.

    LAK has $63.22MM committed to 12 F, 4D and 1G.

    They need to add 1F, 2D and 1G for probably under $10MM

    If Lucic is that one F at $7MM it blows up the cap.

    Now Lombardi is a slippery bastard and might figure out of way to null Brown’s contract while Gary Bettman waves pompoms, but its a tough spot.

    NOTE: I had Vinny in there at $2.5MM and he said he’s retiring.

    So $60.72 and need 2F, 2D and 1 G.

    Possible to keep Lucic, but then they are scraping on the other players.

    McNabb is playing with Doughty and is RFA.

    He’s 25 and only has 2 RFA years left.

    If they can get him done long term around $3.5 they *might* be able to make it work.

  49. lynn says:

    My guess is that the Oilers see Josh Winquist as an AHLer, or they would have signed him to an ELC by now.

    I can see Josh Winquist making good money playing in Europe after this season.

  50. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy,

    As you stated Lombardi IS a slippery bastard. I think he’ll overpay Lucic in term and then wiggle out of it once Lucic starts to regress, Lucic is a dumb enough human being that he will get drunk/stoned and do something stupid that Lombardi can call breach of contract and walk away laughing when the time is right.
    Also LA has the benefit, like the Hawks, of absolute elite players who can make budget players look real good in a pinch.

  51. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy:
    Pouzar,

    Most of the verbal I am hearing is that he loves it L.A.

    LAK has $63.22MM committed to 12 F, 4D and 1G.

    They need to add 1F, 2D and 1G for probably under $10MM

    If Lucic is that one F at $7MM it blows up the cap.

    Now Lombardi is a slippery bastard and might figure out of way to null Brown’s contract while Gary Bettman waves pompoms, but its a tough spot.

    I was going to post similar. Perhaps Brown to Carolina to help them hit the floor? I hope he shakes loose. It would be nice to be on the other side of the equation for a while.

  52. G Money says:

    Woodguy: while Gary Bettman waves pompoms

    I’m not so sure about that.

    Can’t imagine it’s easy to wave pompoms from under Lombardi’s desk.

  53. Woogie63 says:

    Ederle trade for a defenseman might be solved by three moves,

    1) move Driasaitl to RW, so you have a big body on the wall.
    2) Draft either of the Finns as a replacement in the near future
    3) This gives you flexibility with Purcell

    – Get a quality dman

    – Keep two dangerous lines
    Hall- Nuge – Driasaitl
    Pouliot – McDavid – Yak

    – Keep Slepyshev, “Laine” as top future prospects

  54. LadiesloveSmid says:

    sign Winquist to an NHL deal. Over a P/G despite his injury.

    that could be another value contract in the next 2 years

  55. pts2pndr says:

    Braden28,

    Braden28,

    II think the reason Eberle is somewhat being shopped is threefold. Drisaitl is capable number one right wing. Still leaves Yak and Kassian plus for right wing. Second being value of Eberle for trade purposes and third the coach prefers running two offensive lines one checking line. With TV timeouts etc this works quite well. Just my thoughts.

  56. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide,

    The hiring of Eakins set the team back two years! MacT will forever wear this epic fail.It has taken 2 years just to find a replacement for Dubnyk. The swarm totally destroyed his confidence for an extended period. One positive was getting Hendricks out of the transaction. A Vet that shows by example how to be a PRO! The ship is headed in the right direction now just try not to over steer.
    I love your radio show !

  57. BONVIE says:

    Woogie63:
    Ederle trade for a defenseman might be solved by three moves,

    1) move Driasaitl to RW, so you have a big body on the wall.
    2) Draft either of the Finns as a replacement in the near future
    3) This gives you flexibility with Purcell

    – Geta quality dman

    – Keep two dangerous lines
    Hall- Nuge – Driasaitl
    Pouliot – McDavid – Yak

    – Keep Slepyshev, “Laine” as top future prospects

    I don’t think you will see Draisatel playing wing he is by far our best overall center, he has the knowledge and instincts to identify his man defensively, he has the speed to get back defensively to pick up his man, and he has the size and strength to eliminate his man from the play. He is like the dream center smarts, speed, and size in order of importance to play the position.

    On the offensive side we have a great passer who is both a playmaking center who has both crisp and creative passing on both sides of the stick, and can drive to the net with his power and speed while possessing a remarkable finish.

    Once you find the perfect center you do not consider moving him from the center position which is the most important position on the team.

  58. Snowman says:

    BONVIE,

    Not sure how you can definitively declare Drai our best overall center…. Mcdavid has a pretty decent shot at being one of the absolute best players on Earth and showed fantastic defensive awareness and offensive ability right out of the gate and Nuge has been playing responsible two way hockey for years. Drai isn’t even 80 games into his career. He’s been fantastic this season but declaring him “by far our best overall center” is probably a bit enthusiastic.

  59. 99266in87 says:

    pts2pndr,

    pts2pndr:
    Lowetide,

    The hiring of Eakins set the team back two years! MacT will forever wear this epic fail.It has taken 2 years just to find a replacement for Dubnyk. The swarm totally destroyed his confidence for an extended period. One positive was getting Hendricks out of the transaction. A Vet that shows by example how to be a PRO! The ship is headed in the right direction now just try not to over steer.
    I love your radio show !

    Long time reader, faithful listener to lowetide. I honestly couldn’t agree more than this statement. After 10 games, basically Eakins first month, I wtf’d everything about him. 2 years of non-progression in terms of team/player development. I had high hopes for Devon, unfortunately he wasn’t the same after the mid-ice Trouba goal. speaking of Dubnyk, had the pleasure of watching his dad Barry play Jr A goal. Mammoth size and the best goalie mask I’ve ever saw. Now, as a first time contributor to this excellent blog, id like to add a couple cents. Whats been done, is done regarding the inheritance of the mess Chia has to fix. I agree, the ship is righting, and there will be acceleration once our healthy bodies return. I do look forward to watching these boys play. I have seen some of the trade scenarios all winter, but I would ponder this. If we gamble on a run of good play the rest of this season, and start to rise up the standings, I would most certainly dangle the first draft pick, as the value of it now is the most I hope it will be at the moment. Kind of a reverse Sam Pollak move.

  60. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy: Here’s Lucic’s 5v5 pts/60 over his career:

    2007-2008 SeasonMILANLUCIC1.7
    2008-2009 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.21
    2009-2010 SeasonMILANLUCIC1.68
    2010-2011 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.64
    2011-2012 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.56
    2012-2013 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.22
    2013-2014 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.35
    2014-2015 SeasonMILANLUCIC1.81
    2015-2016 SeasonMILANLUCIC2.05

    That’s sustained 1st line production with a little blip last year.

    He plays with 1st line players, but he produces in that spot as well.

    He turns 28 in June.

    The two big years he was in on 25% of the Bruins goals. Last I checked he was in on 24% of the Kings goals so far this season. Pretty consistent.

  61. hunter1909 says:

    99266in87: I would most certainly dangle the first draft pick, as the value of it now is the most I hope it will be at the moment. Kind of a reverse Sam Pollak move.

    Sounds perfect. For the Oilers.

  62. fifthcartel says:

    Rick Westhead ‏@rwesthead 5s5 seconds ago
    Bettman says fighting down in recent seasons because NHL so competitive. Teams want four lines of skilled players, he says.

    Bettman’s talking about four lines of skill and the Oilers are terrified of going beyond two for some reason.

  63. stush18 says:

    G Money: I’m not so sure about that.

    Can’t imagine it’s easy to wave pompoms from under Lombardi’s desk.

    Haha LT what as this place become?

  64. Maverick says:

    Woodguy:
    If anyone hasn’t seen it, this is ESPN’s mini-documentary on Hamonic and how he helps kids who have lost their fathers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYbeIw2V1ZU

    Wow…Just Wow….I didn’t know about the documentary. Thank you for sharing this.

  65. Gret99zky says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Woodguy,

    As you stated Lombardi IS a slippery bastard. I think he’ll overpay Lucic in term and then wiggle out of it once Lucic starts to regress, Lucic is a dumb enough human being that he will get drunk/stoned and do something stupid that Lombardi can call breach of contract and walk away laughing when the time is right.
    Also LA has the benefit, like the Hawks, of absolute elite players who can make budget players look real good in a pinch.

    The Lombardi Sting™

  66. Walter Sobchak says:

    Woodguy,

    I like Lucic too, but I’m concerned his contact will be well north of 6 million with term.

    On the other hand, Kreider an upcoming RFA and rumored to be on the trading block, is younger, less expensive, with very comparable scoring stats as Lucic, and if you’re into the big guy hockey talk he’s got that covered too.

    both play LW.

    Personally I think its worth exploring.

  67. flyfish1168 says:

    Walter Sobchak:
    Woodguy,

    I like Lucic too, but I’m concerned his contact will be well north of 6 million with term.

    On the other hand, Kreider an upcoming RFA and rumored to be on thetrading block,is younger, less expensive, with very comparable scoring stats as Lucic, and if you’re into the big guy hockey talk he’s got that covered too.

    both play LW.

    Personally I think its worth exploring.

    I agree Chris is would be a better fit than Lucic. Money better spent

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1665

  68. 31saves says:

    99266in87,

    allow me to compliment you on your username choice.

    By the way, does anybody else think its cool that Gretzky’s pass to Lemieux in the Canada cup ( seen as a passing of the torch from uber-superstar to uber-superstar) occurred about a month after Crosby was born? i never noticed it before seeing your handle

  69. Quinlan says:

    1) I see others (Woodguy) have covered it but I don’t recall Lucic being a one-season wonder. He’s been pretty stinking good for the majority of his career. Also, both teams he has played for have remarked how much of a student of the game he is. Not just a Hulk Smash player – he’s got a thinking element to his game.

    2) I think the play for NYI might very well be that they make a deal for Eberle and then Okposo for a defenseman. MIN is looking to add scoring and rumours have abounded RE: Brodin. If they can speak with Okposo’s representatives maybe they can arrange a contract to make the deal worth their while. Oh, and Okposo happens to be from St. Paul so that just might work.

    3) Winquist. Sign the man. If the Oil don’t someone else will – I hate developing players for other teams. So, so smart – I remember when he and Holmberg signed. Kind of surprised he’s turned out to be better. NHL talent, PP witch, and local kid.

  70. Quinlan says:

    Oh, and

    4) Kreider would be a great target. His inconsistency has to be concerning to NYR. With him and Poo in the fold, though, the O zone penalties would be something to behold. Both hyper-aggressive forecheckers.

  71. wheatnoil says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    Aren’t the Oilers up to 49 contracts right now? Wouldn’t they want to offload a contract or two before they signed Winquist (if they in fact want to sign him)?

    I’m not sure there’s a reason to sign him to a contract right now and, in fact, it may be detrimental. Given his age (23 by Sept 15), he would be signing a two-year ELC contract. So if they sign him during the season, they would be burning one year of his ELC, meaning he’s only signed up until the end of next season… which doesn’t make sense if you’re not calling him up by the end of the year.

    I do think you sign him in the off-season, though. Two years of a waiver-exempt AHL scorer. He either makes it as an injury fill-in type with the ability to move up and down the line-up or he’s included as the 3rd piece in a 3 for 1.

  72. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    He turns 28 in June.

    Younger than both Hall and Eberle will be at the end of their contracts. I wonder if he’d accept a 5-year term? Those 6th and 7th years would be the most dangerous.

  73. Ryan says:

    pts2pndr:
    Braden28,

    Braden28,

    II think the reasonEberle is somewhatbeing shopped is threefold. Drisaitl is capable number one right wing. Still leaves Yak and Kassian plus for right wing. Second being value of Eberle for trade purposes and third the coach prefers running two offensive lines one checking line. With TV timeouts etc this works quite well. Just my thoughts.

    Draisatl is already way too good of a center to be played long-term as a winger. I think that would be a huge waste of his ability.

    I think the idea of him going to right wing would simply be for game situations where you need a goal and want to stack a line for offense.

  74. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    Gaborik will be his next target…..Brown is the captain and not quite Ference bad yet.

  75. Woodguy says:

    Maverick: Wow…Just Wow….I didn’t know about the documentary.Thank you for sharing this.

    Got a little dust in my eyes in a couple of spots.

    Quite the guy.

  76. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Younger than both Hall and Eberle will be at the end of their contracts. I wonder if he’d accept a 5-year term? Those 6th and 7th years would be the most dangerous.

    If I’m Chia I look for a 2 year term.

    “wanna play with McDavid and pump your numbers for 2 years before your last long term contract?”

  77. OF17 says:

    Quinlan,

    Regarding the Okposo idea, I think we all need to eliminate “sign and trade” deals from our vocabulary. To my knowledge, such a deal has never happened, and thinking that one might gives a skewed view of UFA assets.

    If Team X knew that Player Y definitely wanted to sign with them in the offseason, why would they trade for him now? The only thing that they’d gain would be ~20 games + playoffs of said player, which is what they’d gain from a rental, so he’d command the same price as a normal rental would.

    The only scenario that makes sense is if Player Y only has 4-5 teams he’s interested in signing with, and you think by trading for him you’re going to get a head start. For starters, I doubt agents will ever let that information out, since it will cost them and their clients money, and even if they do, that’s a marginal increase in the price for a rental, not at all akin to trading for a player with actual term on his deal.

    In short, we’re playing fantasy even more so than usual when we talk about “sign and trade” deals happening or even significantly affecting player value.

  78. square_wheels says:

    wheatnoil,

    After we’ve won a few cups we can sneaky weasel out like LA, I’m all for the “just get better” approach. I’ve become slightly jaded after this long in the wilderness, I’m already sacrificing goats, so an extra year of a player doesn’t phase me.

  79. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Chia I look for a 2 year term.

    “wanna play with McDavid and pump your numbers for 2 years before your last long term contract?”

    I’m not sure that Lucic needs that short-term boost before his last contract though. He’s already probably going to get paid. After two years he’ll be 30 and there may be more hesitancy in terms of giving him the big money.

    I think the short-term “McDavid boost” is likely to be more appealing to a player who’s coming off an off-year… like Stamkos. 😉

  80. G Money says:

    Questions for anyone and everyone:

    – Anyone looked at RK Stimpson’s passing project data on the Oilers?

    – Anyone here familiar with and used Tableau for data visualization? Desktop? For the web?

  81. OF17 says:

    Woodguy: If I’m Chia I look for a 2 year term.

    “wanna play with McDavid and pump your numbers for 2 years before your last long term contract?”

    Lucic is likely to get 6-7 years of term, which will take him to age 34-35. He’d be stupid to risk tens of millions of guaranteed dollars in the hope, not the certainty, of gaining a few more.

  82. 99266in87 says:

    31saves:
    99266in87,

    allow me to compliment you on your username choice.

    By the way, does anybody else think its cool that Gretzky’s pass to Lemieux in the Canada cup ( seen as a passing of the torch from uber-superstar to uber-superstar) occurred about a month after Crosby was born? i never noticed it before seeing your handle

    Thanks, tho nothing cryptic about it, just my most powerful off the couch, punch in the air moment I could remember. CCCP were the enemy pre 90’s. Decided to join the blog to add to some of the intelligence. me, I foresee a diminishing value to the first pick if we get our bodies back, goaltending, system clean-up, and the trust and knowledge McLellan will do after this weekend. Not knowing any of Chia’s agenda, I’d gamble the 1st. Trade it high for something good. Aim with it higher than Shatt, Sami etc. I’m just wishful thinking that we burn a trigger happy GM somewhere else as we rise and place where we should have “healthley” been. The team is unbalanced, yes, its very self evident. But use those assets we retain after the trade deadline, to address the size we need up front. I see the need to be heavier, but, with heavier fwds, we balance with skill as in close games, high skill will always kill another team. Always been a 1st pick keeper. Now, its time to cash it in.

  83. square_wheels says:

    wheatnoil,

    10 years of Stamkos and he’s still only 36 when it ends.

    Toronto is backing up the dump truck of cash already.

    Watch them offer 11x10yrs.

    Good news, someone mentioned it earlier as well, is we swoop in and grab a Demers.

  84. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    wheatnoil,

    10 years of Stamkos and he’s still only 36 when it ends.

    Toronto is backing up the dump truck of cash already.

    Watch them offer 11x10yrs.

    Good news, someone mentioned it earlier as well, is we swoop in and grab a Demers.

    Nowadays, you can only sign a player you didn’t draft for 7 years and one you did draft for 8. Your point still stands. A max-length contract for Stamkos still only covers his prime years.

  85. Centre of attention says:

    Complete Hockey News
    1 min ·
    NHL Deputy commissioner Bill Daly said the league’s own investigation into sexual assault allegations against Patrick Kane remains ongoing.

    So, what is really going on with Kane? Interesting that the deputy commissioner would comment on something I thought had been completely swept under the rug during pre-season.

  86. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    CBA expert I am not ! But yes, Leafs not landing Stamkos would be shocking. In fact, I think they’re going to be very busy at the deadline and in the offseason.

    The coach carries some weight as well, no different then us thinking Burns would sign here to play for Tmac. Not to say Stamkos has a relationship with him but it’s certainly appealing over his apparent relationship with his current coach.

  87. Woodguy says:

    square_wheels:
    wheatnoil,

    10 years of Stamkos and he’s still only 36 when it ends.

    Toronto is backing up the dump truck of cash already.

    Watch them offer 11x10yrs.

    Good news, someone mentioned it earlier as well, is we swoop in and grab a Demers.

    Most term they can offer is 7 years.

    Most term TBY can offer is 8 years.

  88. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: I’m not sure that Lucic needs that short-term boost before his last contract though. He’s already probably going to get paid. After two years he’ll be 30 and there may be more hesitancy in terms of giving him the big money.

    I think the short-term “McDavid boost” is likely to be more appealing to a player who’s coming off an off-year… like Stamkos.

    Probably right but I don’t think Stamkos needs a boost.

  89. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Thx WG, I’m admittedly a CBA idiot.

  90. Woodguy says:

    square_wheels:
    Woodguy,

    Thx WG, I’m admittedly a CBA idiot.

    It’s a complicated document

  91. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Too much like work, I’ve got enough complications and muddled process to last a lifetime.

  92. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: Probably right but I don’t think Stamkos needs a boost.

    Agreed… hence the ‘winking emoticon’. I was wishful thinking Stamkos.

    A serious question though is who might be genuinely interested in a McDavid boost. A buy-low winger coming off an off-year. Sadly, a lot of those guys already have past connections to the Oilers. Like Gagner or Perron.

  93. AsiaOil says:

    I chase Stamkos and make a max offer for no other reason than to make TOR pay as high a price for as long a period as possible.

    Our RW situation will be fine if we trade Ebs. Drai/Yak/Kas is more than workable and wing is a relatively easy area to pick off talent in the UFA market. Hell even Pitlick might become something – only 7 games – but he’s finally scoring at a decent rate. He does have the potential to be at least an injury call up unlike a lot of the other vets in the AHL – and he’s a Chia-type player – so I’d resign him.

    Nothing much more to do other than wait for Chia to make his deals – kinda funny that our last game before the deadline is NYI. Ebs and Hamonic can just skate to different dressing rooms at the buzzer 🙂

  94. Water Fire says:

    I don’t think Stamkos Is a good idea for the Oilers. He duplicates McDavid. Lucic brings a different element and is an effective offensive player. What Connor needs is someone to create a meaningful distraction that can keep up.

    Tik did it for Gretzky while Kurri took care of the responsibility for defensiveplay and found open ice.

    If Chia can pull off 2,experienced D with one being able to help the PP and balance the team it’s on folks, for a long time. Because I don’t think Chia is sentimental and will trade players when the time is right, a team that wants to stay at the top can’t retire too many players, but there’s lots of room for jerseys and one day contracts.

  95. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    OF17,

    CBA expert I am not ! But yes, Leafs not landing Stamkos would be shocking. In fact, I think they’re going to be very busy at the deadline and in the offseason.

    The coach carries some weight as well, no different then us thinking Burns would sign here to play for Tmac. Not to say Stamkos has a relationship with him but it’s certainly appealing over his apparent relationship with his current coach.

    Yeah, as much flak as Toronto fans get for projecting Stamkos into the lineup, they’re one of the few teams out there than can actually afford him. He’d have to go for considerably less than market rate, which I’m assuming is around $10 million per season, if he chose a competitor. I guess Stamkos is going to have to decide whether the difference between $50 million and $70 million (once agent fees and taxes are taken out) means more to him than the difference between playing for a contender or one mired in the early stages of a rebuild. Listening to Leafs fans talk about how great Nylander and Marner are reminds me of the H.O.P.E. era. Early days, and experience says they have much more pain ahead of them than they think.

    AsiaOil,

    I agree with you on the RW point, and generally I agree with you on most points regarding the D. Would you rather have wing be an issue or D be an issue? For me it’s an easy choice, particularly since Purcell-Yakupov-Kassian should be more than sufficient to get the job done.

    If we don’t trade our 1st this year, which if it’s top-3, I think we’d be insane to trade (Patrik Laine ELC – talk about value contracts), those 3 have a top-flight prospect backing them up too. A year or two from now, Eberle will be seen as a luxury, not a necessity, whereas I think we all can agree which side of the table the defense lies on.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire,

    Yeah, Stamkos duplicates McDavid.

    Duplicates awesomeness.

    Can never have enough awesomeness.

  97. AsiaOil says:

    OF17,

    D is the overwhelming priority and we have enough depth (Drai to RW) to trade Ebs if necessary.

    I’m pretty much played out on trade scenarios – just waiting for Chia to make his deals and see how this unfolds.

  98. rickithebear says:

    So we are clear!
    20 year old Draisatl is having the best
    tough comp Elite EVPPG over elite average since the 05-06 lockout.
    Better than Malkin; Crosby’s and Toews best!

    HE IS NOT A F………….. Wing!

    RNH is more wing than Draisatl!

  99. matt says:

    1. Too much LH D. Trade it for, ultimately, RH D. Picks can be an intermediary.
    2. The Nikitin/Ference money can buy a top D.
    3. Any trade for a RH D now has to be based on the assumption that the freed up cap space will be put to good use during the offseason. Otherwise the offseason will be spent trying to backfill some of the pieces traded away (e.g., a scoring dependable winger – ask Korpiskoski what he thinks of that plan)
    4. Can Slepyshev make the roster next year as 3L or 3R? How does he affect the way that the risk is weighted?
    5. Draisaitl wlll play both wing and centre as injuries happen or do not happen, or lines get hot or cold.

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