BEAUTIFUL DAY

At some point, we are going to have to leave our curmudgeonly comfort zone and admit this team—with Connor McDavid in the lineup—is capable of bringing real joy to the north country. For two nights this week, Edmonton shone bright and its citizens were genuinely happy. We are not yet to the point where we can say ‘these are the good old days’ but last night in Ottawa, the Oilers steamrolled the Senators. Ottawa’s response? Closed door, players-only meeting. Maybe that’s how we will know this team has arrived: Beat the home team 7-2, no closed door meeting afterward. I could get used to this, again.

HAVEN’T GOT TIME FOR THE PAIN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-0-0
  • Oilers after 52 in 2014-15: 14-29-9, 37 points (-53 GD)
  • Oilers after 52 in 2015-16: 21-26-5, 47 points (-18 GD)

The Oilers are back to 10 points above last year’s team, and are 15 points behind last season’s total of 62. The 2014-15 Edmonton team won 24 games, so this year’s model is just three wins behind the 82-game total of one year ago. Finally, the goal differential is now getting very interesting. I haven’t done an ounce of research into this, but the season-over-season progress is probably going to be incredible. Here are the last 11 seasons for Edmonton in goal differential (via NHL.com):

  • 2005-06: +5
  • 2006-07: -53
  • 2007-08: -16
  • 2008-09: -14
  • 2009-10: -70
  • 2010-11: -76
  • 2011-12: -27
  • 2012-13: -9 (lockout year)
  • 2013-14: -67
  • 2014-15: -85
  • 2015-16: -18

It has been such a long road, easy to forget that the one team in the black had real goaltending issues and would have posted a much stronger number with Roloson from opening night. The numbers beginning in 2009-10 are staggering, just insane. And 2006-07? They lost Pronger, Spacek and a bunch of other veteran defensemen, and have never recovered. Crazy.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Nurse—Schultz performed well, one of the best games in possession for both men in recent times. It is interesting to see how each pairing did against the Hoffman-Z-Ryan line, I will list each defender against Ryan. Nurse (8-1, 3:32) and Schultz (5-1, 2:16) were outstanding. Schultz delivered an effective hit and Nurse got into a pretty good fight that Dad Richard Nurse found pretty exciting.
  • Davidson—Gryba also had a strong night, Davidson is such a smart player. He is outstanding at getting the puck to a calm place, passed himself the puck by rapping it on the boards, and another time he faked a pass as the checkers faded, and then re-set the play. Subtle, smart. He is a terrific player, my vote for ‘guy who should play big minutes like Sekera and Klefbom next year’ goes to him, along with Hamonic or same. Eric Gryba fought 10 times, was physical and helped win puck battles, he is not effective with the puck on his stick but he will have a role here next season if they don’t trade him at the deadline. Against Bobby Ryan: Davidson (4-3, 3:16), Gryba (3-3, 2:28).
  • Sekera—Fayne got boxed about the face and hands all night by the Hoffman-Z-Ryan line. Sekera (4-12, 8:55 against Ryan) and Fayne (2-12, 8:12, also Ryan) also had a helluva time against the Stone-Pageau-Smith line (Sekera was 4-15, 6:03 and Fayne 4-15, 5:24 against Stone) in what appeared to be a human sacrifice in order to get clean air for the other pairs. How long can McLellan do that? No idea. The pair were out there mostly with the Leon line (9:01) and less with McDavid (5:51). Caved.
  • Nurse had the only Individual high-danger scoring chance among defenders, thought for sure he would score.
  • I would have loved that fight long ago, but the problem in life is this: Once you know, you know, and if you google ‘Reg Fleming’s brain‘ you will know. I want Darnell Nurse to live to be 100, with every brain cell God gave him. It is my sincere hope we see an end to fighting in my lifetime.

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Connor McDavid is going to be so famous in the coming years the mind boggles. Defensemen already fear him, that poor bastard Wideman took a penalty for basically nothing after surviving a sortie, caught the two for a little shove that represented a futile attempt at intimidation. 97 will end careers, that is a fact. He is at 1.13 points-per-game in the NHL at 19. Pleases the eye, shocks the mind, Connor McDavid.
  • Leon Draisaitl played the Nuge minutes last night, that was some tough sledding. Leon went 9:21 against Erik Karlsson, no forward played more (Sekera—Fayne were gifted just a little more time against the brilliant 65). He also took a physical beating, but damned if he didn’t grab two points including a terrific goal. Love this guy, it doesn’t hurt that he looked a lot like Frank Mahovlich on his goal.
  • Matt Hendricks and his line skated miles and worked hard, McLellan uses them like a favorite mitt you know you can trust to play catch with the crazy neighbor.
  • Mark Letestu and his line didn’t win the Corsi battle but I thought they were mostly effective. Solid puck management, best examples that I recall involve the wingers but their center won some key faceoffs.

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Hall—Purcell had the tough assignment and I thought they were deadly effective. Hall has matured as a player, not every play is life and death and sending it deep is now a solid result. Purcell does 10 smart things a period now, I wish I hadn’t been down on him last year (maybe he was doing good things and I wasn’t looking). I ran a post two nights ago fishing for folks who (like me) would like to sign him, didn’t get enough for a quorum but I’m a stubborn kind of fellow, got my mind made up about Ed.
  • Pouliot—Eberle won the lottery, I am happy for both but have two things I would like to say here. I feel the Oilers might be vulnerable to selling low on Pouliot for sins real and imagined, and hope they keep him. He is an effective player with and without the puck and—like Purcell—is an actual NHL player. As for Eberle, I don’t think he will hit 30 goals but 25 this year seems reasonable.
  • Korpikoski—Pakarinen were 5-7 away from Stone, but I think the Oilers should consider finding a buyer for Korpikoski at the deadline. Pakarinen might be a player, like him a lot.
  • Kassian—Yakupov were solid to my eye, lots of good little plays. Kassian is a real bull, he just pushes and pushes and drives deeper into the zone. Thank God the boards curve or he would be in the parking lot half the night. Yakupov skated miles and got pucks deep, chased and battled. One of the small good plays he made was right at the end of the game, got the puck to center, shoveled it to open ice, drifted it in and then chased. I don’t know if he will emerge as a scorer here or in another NHL city, but he is a game rooster and his Corsi for 5×5 percentage year over year (46.3 to 52.0) is exceptional. Well done, Nail Yakupov.

nuge tsn list

We have talked in the past about this, I suspect where there is smoke there is fire and someone is either making up a pile of stuff or there has been chatter around the Nuge. Dave Poulin mentioned the Arizona Coyotes, and that gives us a bit of a lead on what Peter Chiarelli might be looking for in return. I would suggest four names of interest:

  • C Martin Hanzal, $3.5M who is UFA 2017. He is 28, and is 38gp, 6-18-24, 49.7 CorsiFor 5×5 percentage.
  • L Anthony DuClair $894,000 who is RFA 2017. He is 20, and is 50gp, 14-12-26, 51.6 CorsiFor 5×5 percentage.
  • F Henrik Samuelsson, currently in the AHL but a former Edmonton Oil King.
  • C Dylan Strome, No. 3 overall selection in 2015. He is having a massive OHL season, former teammate of Connor McDavid with the Erie Otters.

We have discussed this at length, I would not trade the Nuge, or entertain the idea of it, until 2018 summer. Why? Inexperienced centers will cost you, and the Oilers finally have strength at the position. That said, I know these lists come from somewhere and many media have suggested Nuge (and Eberle) are at least somewhat in play. I do not think it’ll be Arizona, but do believe Chiarelli would be looking for one of two player-types in trade:

  • A stud top-pairing defenseman. Hamonic would not meet my threshold for dealing RNH, no idea if Chiarelli would bite on that deal (Islanders need another center like Kanye needs more Cardassians).
  • A power winger with offense and attitude. I do think this player-type is high on the list, and there are not many.

And of course it goes without saying that sending Nuge away means an immediate addition at center to replace his minutes. I don’t think placing Leon against the top defensemen night in, night out this early in his career is the way to go. Maybe they will trade Nuge in order to create the cap space needed to sign Dustin Byfuglien.

CAN THE OILERS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

The math giggles, then says no. The Oilers are eight points back of Anaheim for third place in the Pacific and have played three more games. The Ducks are on a five game winning streak and look ready for a strong finish to the year. If Edmonton finishes the season with 82 points, that is a strong finish (they need to post 35  in the final 30 games). The playoffs? It would take a perfect storm.

Does that mean you should stop cheering? Hell no! The great thing about sports is that teams do go on impossible runs and carry their fans to wonderful heights. The Ottawa Senators did it just one year ago. Cheer like hell, I will be right down to the end of the season. Don’t you let the naysayers talk you out of it either, it is no sin to smile. You will read this and the comments section will fill with miles and miles of reasons why it will not happen. It ain’t over until it’s over. Math will have the final say, but until then keep on trucking. How long can the Oilers keep this thing going? It looks like a wild ride to April, hang on!

JUSTIN SCHULTZ

  • Bob McKenzie: “But certainly I think the Oilers would like to move him, and I think there are teams talking to Edmonton about him. But whether the fit is there remains to be seen.” Source

Lots of chatter online about the return, I cannot see a second-round pick being the price tag. My guess is that the Oilers get a pick that starts with 100 and consider themselves lucky. Schultz is a wonderful skater and there may be a team out there who can unlock him. I am satisfied that the Oilers gave him his chance, but will also admit he came to the organization in a time of extreme addlement. I hope he enjoys his career, wherever he lands.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

hurdle gif

At 10 this morning, plenty to talk about and I welcome your input. TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. McDavid, Hockey Day in Canada, Super Bowl.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. The Oilers and the Senators, Super Bowl, McDavid.
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. Can the Broncos win this thing?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday!!! McDavid! Lordy.

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254 Responses to "BEAUTIFUL DAY"

« Older Comments
  1. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    hunter1909,

    No I could care less really haha. I was just spitballing generally on what the actual trade for Hamonic would look like and ruminating on a couple of random thoughts that have popped into me head over the last few days.

  2. Woogie63 says:

    Balance of Year wish list;

    30 entertaining games
    Klefbom comes back and is brilliant
    Nuge comes back and clicks with Yakupov
    McDavid gets into the Calder conversation
    Win the lottery pick
    Witness the Toronto based media’s collective head explode
    Trade for the dman we all want

  3. Магия 10 says:

    Adam Wu: NHL players are in the upper S, not the linear middle portion of that curve where beer leaguers find themselves.

    I believe it’s called the S curve in honour of the engineer who discovered it: John Scott.

  4. Магия 10 says:

    Some of you may recall a commentator last night mentioning a prediction they’d seen here or maybe somewhere else for a 7-2 win.

    Well perhaps you’ve noticed that LT leaves the keys to his Delorean just lying around. So easy enough to hop back and edit my 10:18 am post. To make the gag obvious I added a prediction that Davidson would score the final goal. And when Bendelson joined the joy ride with a 9:50 am post I riffed on that with an even earlier comment.

    But that left one mystery. Where was the original prediction? Turns out I drove the Delorean right over it at high speed. You see a good comic can get great laughs telling something straight with a straight face.

    [clears throat, taps mic]

    Upon video review Bendleson’s prediction of a 7-2 win really did cross the goal line.

  5. Eulers says:

    I was bizarrely looking forward to Lowetide writing this out today:

    Oilers after 52 in 2014-15: 14-29-9, 37 points (-53 GD)
    Oilers after 52 in 2015-16: 21-26-5, 47 points (-18 GD)

    Last night moved us to 10 points ahead of last year’s squad and the +5 pus is in the teens for goal deficit. Something satisfying about this.

    Have a very McDavid day, everyone!

  6. Магия 10 says:

    Eulers:
    I was bizarrely looking forward to Lowetide writing this out today:

    Oilers after 52 in 2014-15: 14-29-9, 37 points (-53 GD)
    Oilers after 52 in 2015-16: 21-26-5, 47 points (-18 GD)

    Last night moved us to 10 points ahead of last year’s squad and the +5 pus is in the teens for goal deficit. Something satisfying about this.

    Have a very McDavid day, everyone!

    Weird fact. Every Canadian team has 47 or 52 points right now. The McDavid Oilers may be the only tank running North. #BillScott’sTie

  7. Doug McLachlan says:

    Caramel Batman: This is a highly irrational thing to believe. If you sign a free agent slugger and place him in the #4 slot in the lineup and move the #4 hitter to #5 you haven’t magically made the old #4 hitter a better hitter. If he was a .250 hitter who hit 25 homeruns before you sign Bryce Harper, he’s a .250 hitter who hits 25 homeruns after you sign Bryce Harper.It is magical thinking to suggest otherwise. If the Oilers get Hamonic the improvement in the team is the delta between him and the worst defenseman on the team (take your pick). The result is the same whether you calculate it as Hamonic – #6 or if you calculate it as Hamonic is better than Sekera, Sekera is better than Klefbom, etc. So no, Hamonic does not make every single position better. He makes one position a lot better.

    Actually the delta is (Hamonic – worst d) + (acquisition cost of Hamonic, presumably a negative).

    G Money,

    I have not heard anyone suggest that Chia should not pursue Hamonic. I haven’t even heard too many complain that he isn’t a true #1 D – though any doubts I might have had are now put to bed. Nice work that.

    I also would agree that his cap number is fantastic and will be for years to come.

    The issue is cost.

    The less it takes to get him in Copper and Blue silks the bigger the win is all.

  8. Adam Wu says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Adam Wu,

    The NHL is already, by definition, the extreme end of the curve.To have the kind of disparity you are suggesting requires the difference in ability between someone like Hamonic and someone like Klefbom to be larger than what it appears such that Hamonic is able to “raise his game” while Klefbom is not so that at one level of competition they produce similar results but at another, higher, level Hamonic produces better results.

    It seems to me that this is an empirical question.

    I await such a demonstration.

    The fact that the NHL is the extreme end of the curve, where the relations are not linear IS MY POINT.

    YOU are the one who has to demonstrate that this is, in fact, not so.

  9. bendelson says:

    Магия 10: Upon video review Bendleson’s prediction of a 7-2 win really did cross the goal line.

    Thanks Magic. Unfortunately, the views from all league-approved camera angles were blocked by the goalie’s glove… it happens.

  10. Oil2Oilers says:

    Fog of Warts: doing something drudgerously constructive

    On a Friday afternoon in February, perish the thought my good man, you would make the rest of us look bad. After all, our 32 hours are up.

  11. AsiaOil says:

    Hi G – sure that’s absolutely the case – add one top pair guy and everyone’s numbers suddenly improve because they are playing at a lower level. We’ve been seeing it this past week. Dump GR on 3rd pair with Gryba and appropriate minutes and suddenly he’s gold. Up to 2nd pair with same partner and the challenges appear. Same with Nurse – 3rd pair and appropriate minutes and he starts to perform – move him up the lineup and the cracks appear. Sure we need RHD and I’m sure Chia does not bring in GR if he could read the future. No one could have seen the emergence of Davidson, or counted on the Sekera signing, or banked on Nurse being 3rd pair ready. It’s created a log jam for sure – but it’s a good problem. Plus I’m more worried about Klef than most – think his career may be at risk – and if that’s the case then we need our LHD. Can’t wait for Shultz to be gone – I’m positively giddy about it – and don’t care what we get. It’s going to be addition by subtraction if nothing else.

    Have a look at Yak’s WOWY on McCurdy’s site – nice – but holy crap look at Nuge. Honestly there is some damn weird stuff going on internally wrt Yak. Yeah it’s in super small minutes – but numbers match the eye on this one for me and it seems to me that parts of the team view Yak vs Ebs as a zero sum game. If that’s the case then trade one already. Love Ebs performance last night – but this was a game where OTT ceded time and space to the Oilers time and again. We are not having a “love in” if they play that kind of game against a squad that is bigger, harder and denies the Oilers so much room for pretty plays. Bet that is the topic of the team meeting. I hope that CMD keeps feeding Ebs – and Ebs keeps sniping – I want his value as high as possible going into the trade deadline. Ebs has elite stick skills but when the going gets tough he will be denied easy space to apply these at ES by big defensively sound teams.

    So let’s all enjoy a couple of “laughers” but coach is on the right track. All this means is we are not terrible any more – doesn’t mean we are good. But that’s progress.

    G Money:
    Snowman,

    Add two Top 4 D and you completely transform this team.

  12. Eulers says:

    Магия 10,

    That is a fun fact, but a little depressing too. Can’t believe no Canadian team has won since 1993.

  13. JDï™ says:

    Yes, I’m here for an argument…

  14. Adam Wu says:

    It has nothing to do with “raising one’s game” whatsoever. It’s the range of competition over which one can maintain equal performance.

    All NHL players are on the upper end of the S curve. Hamonic is, presumably, higher on the curve than Klefbom.

    The higher on the S curve one is, the flatter the curve. The flatter the curve, the wider the range of competition over which level of performance is maintained.

    If the range over which level of performance is maintained for Hamonic is > than the equivalent range for Klefbom, then CB’s argument is WRONG.

    If the curve is S shaped, then CB’s argument is WRONG.
    If the curve is parabolic, then CB’s argument is WRONG.
    If the curve is a normal distribution, then CB’s argument is WRONG.
    If the curve is sinusoidal, then CB’s argument is WRONG.
    If the curve is asymptotic, then CB’s argument is WRONG.
    If the curve is a random walk, then CB’s argument is WRONG.

    CB’s argument can only be right if the curve is linear, exponential, or logarithmic.

    An exponential or logarithmic curve means there is no theoretical upper limit to hockey ability as played by human beings. It means that the best possible human hockey player can score an infinite number of goals in an infinitesimal span of time, skate at infinite speed, hit with infinite force, and maintain possession at an infinite rate.

    A linear curve means that today’s NHL players are not close to the maximum level of performance in hockey that is possible for human beings. It means that at some point in the foreseeable future, a player of McDavid’s caliber would only be a borderline 14F on an NHL team.

    This is not impossible, but this requires evidence to demonstrate empirically. In most areas concerning the extremes of biological performance, S curves are the null hypothesis.

  15. Frank the dog says:

    Eulers:
    Магия 10,

    That is a fun fact, but a little depressing too. Can’t believe no Canadian team has won since 1993.

    Doesn’t that coincide with Bettman’s arrival?

  16. Магия 10 says:

    Eulers:
    Магия 10,

    That is a fun fact, but a little depressing too. Can’t believe no Canadian team has won since 1993.

    The trifecta would be 1) finishing least worst in Canada. 2) winning the golden ticket. 3) hearing the howl from every Canadian market that tanking only works for the Oilers.

    Aside from that yeah it would be nice to see Canadian teams deep in the playoffs.

  17. Магия 10 says:

    Frank the dog: Doesn’t that coincide with Bettman’s arrival?

    And the departure of UFAs offered equal deals.

  18. Pouzar says:

    I guess you can’t please em all Jordan ‘Golden Boy’ Eberle.

    How bout dem Oilers!

  19. Snowman says:

    AsiaOil,

    Agree with a lot of this post.

    One thing I might add though. You said that Ottawa ceded time and space (absolutely correct, they did) and that you can expect that to end when the Oilers face bigger tougher defensive teams because they will deny Ebs the easy time and space he enjoyed in Ottawa. I would say that you can expect that to lessen to some extent but playing with Mcdavid will give Ebs more time and space than he’s used to. Ottawa is a terrible defensive team but even against pretty good teams I think Mcdavid will create more time and space for Eberle than you’d expect.

    Mcdavid draws everybody’s attention. People are forced to cheat towards him because he will embarass them if teams play him straight up. I don’t think the easy time and space for Eberle is going to end until he stops playing with Mcdavid. It might decrease a some against really good teams but it won’t end.

    I think Mcdavid will eventually have the same effect on Hall and Drai. Teams are going to have to play top pairings against Mcdavid. Hall and Drai are going to face easier matchups. Then the good times will roll.

    Mcdavid creates time and space for everybody.

  20. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Fayne is ok at 2RD, but that Dcorps lacks an offensive guy.

    I’d like:

    Klefbom-Hamonic
    Sekera-Vantanen/Barrie
    Davidson-Nurse

    I think that’s a playoff Dcorps.

    last

    woodguy:
    offensive D?

    15-16 Dmen EVP/gm
    Giordano .490
    Brodie .475
    Burns .460
    Vlasic .426
    Keith .422
    Fat enough again .380
    OEL .373
    Suter .372
    Klingberg .365
    goligoski .365
    Braun .354
    Muzzin .353
    Pietrangelo .352
    Josi .346
    ———————————– top 14 in WC
    Vatanen .327
    Ekholm .327
    Barrie .320
    Myers .320
    Ellis .314
    Klefbom .300
    Parayko .294
    Doughty .294
    Martin .286
    Weber .269
    Beauchemin .269
    Hamilton .265
    Demers .261
    Shattenkirk .250
    Boumeester .250
    Hutton .250
    ———————————– top 28
    Hjarlmasson .236
    Edler .220
    Bartkowski .220
    Sekera .216
    Stone .216
    Spurgeon .216
    Tanev .213
    Enstrom .180
    Martinez .176
    Fowler .167
    Trouba .160
    ————————————
    Dumba .137
    Gryba .128
    Brodin .120
    Davidson .114
    Schultz .108
    Lindholm .104
    Fayne .077

  21. Woodguy says:

    If you want to see how dominate of an offensive Dman Karlsson is, this graph via Travis Yost is a great visual:

    https://twitter.com/travisyost/status/695726054040694784

  22. LoDog says:

    Snowman:
    AsiaOil,

    Mcdavid creates time and space for everybody.

    There is no time or space. Go ahead and do the math. There is only here and now and to think otherwise requires magical thinking and probably several generations of inbreeding.

  23. striatic says:

    WOW. Who would have thought that the addition of Adam Clendening would have such a profound impact on this team coming out of the All Star Break? Good call Chiarelli.

  24. prairieschooner says:

    I am a bit confused about the Hamonic thing
    If he wants to be closer to home then it surely has to be Winnipeg for him?
    Edmonton is close but there is still significant travel involved for him to get home
    Also during the regular season how much opportunity do players have to actually go home?
    Someone should ask Ebs about that (before we trade him)
    I do not think Hamonic will be any happier here than where he is now.
    I know top D men are tough to find but if we were spending some of our precious assets shouldn’t we be getting more of a puck mover ?

  25. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Doug McLachlan: Actually the delta is (Hamonic – worst d) + (acquisition cost of Hamonic, presumably a negative).

    G Money,

    I have not heard anyone suggest that Chia should not pursue Hamonic.I haven’t even heard too many complain that he isn’t a true #1 D – though any doubts I might have had are now put to bed.Nice work that.

    I also would agree that his cap number is fantastic and will be for years to come.

    The issue is cost.

    The less it takes to get him in Copper and Blue silks the bigger the win is all.

    I would say a fair number of people are saying he isn’t a true number 1. Some are saying 2, 3, 4 (once he comes to the West). I disagree with this, as does Gmoney’s numbers.

    For what it’s worth I think he’s in the high part of the top 20 in the league or so. That said I’m willing to concede that he’s as bad as a #3 for the sake of argument (the better guy on the second pairing on a good team). Because, to me, his contract makes him worth acquiring, even at a relatively high price, even if he is a #3.

    Because to me it isn’t, say, Eberle for Hamonic.

    It’s keep Eberle and a $2million Dman in the Hamonic slot, total $8m between the two slots; or,

    Acquire Hamonic and spend $4m on a forward in the Eberle slot, total $8m between the two slots.

  26. Adam Wu says:

    Магия 10: The trifecta would be 1)finishing least worst in Canada. 2) winning the golden ticket. 3) hearing the howl from every Canadian market that tanking only works for the Oilers.

    Aside from that yeah it would be nice to see Canadian teams deep in the playoffs.

    Given the injury situation, I would say winning the lottery like that is simply overall team fortune regressing to the mean!

  27. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Gio and Brodie.

    Man.

  28. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – Yes ! Trade Eberle (and $6MM) for Harmonic, and that $2MM+ you spend differently

    – Harmonic + > Eberle

  29. Statsman says:

    JDï™:
    Yes, I’m here for an argument…

    No you’re not!!

  30. JDï™ says:

    Statsman: No you’re not!!

    Well can I go upstairs then?

  31. böök¡je says:

    JDï™:
    Yes, I’m here for an argument…

    Don’t give me that, you snotty-faced heap of parrot droppings!

  32. LoDog says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – Yes ! Trade Eberle (and $6MM) for Harmonic, and that $2MM+ you spend differently

    – Harmonic + > Eberle

    But Eberle + Hamonic is > Hamonic + and no Eberle.

    With all the money coming off the books this year can’t the Oilers afford both?

    Now if they do what I want and add two dmen then ya some money has to go out.

  33. G Money says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Absolutely. Cost is a critical part of the issue. Cost paid will rest on Chia’s hands (if he can make it happen). The other part of the equation, cost in cap $, is a bargain.

    Cash’s equation, fittingly enough, is likely correct.

    As for where Hamonic sits, maybe I’ve been misreading, but I do think there have been statements that Hamonic isn’t a top pairing guy, even on the Oilers. That’s the part that surprises me. He’s top pairing on more teams than not.

    Off the top of my head, the only teams where I think he wouldn’t be top pairing are probably LA, NSH, and CHI.

    Another bunch of teams (EDM, CBJ, COL, BUF, VAN, maybe WSH, probably NYR, probably BOS, PHI, DET, NJD, TOR) he’d be the de facto 1D.

    The other 15 he’d be top pairing, but likely partnered with someone (depending on how much importance you give to handedness) who would be the de facto 1D (I’m thinking OEL, Giordano, Hedman, Subban, etc).

    It’s when I hear someone suggest he’d be a 3D on the Oilers that I kinda go batshit crazy!

  34. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Wow!

    We know from the Oilers and their rotten core that when a team struggles, you blame their talented young players.

    Clearly he’s at fault for Ottawa’s recent problems. I mean, if our rotten core can beat them down 7-2, how rotten must they be?

    Think we can get him for Schultz and a 2nd?

  35. Магия 10 says:

    JDï™: Well can I go upstairs then?

    It’s being-hit-on-the-head lessons up there. Tell them you an Oiler’s fan. Special discount.

  36. who says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Caramel Batman,

    A 21% difference in shooting percentage is a giant difference for the record.

    A couple questions for discussion

    When the trade scenarios and the pairings for next year are thrown out how much weight arefolks putting on the natural progression of Klefbom, Nurse, Davidson and Rienhart year over year?

    Do we need to worry as much about bumping guys down multiple pegs if they show the same kind of improvement Klefbom has shown over the last 18 months (training camp send down to top-paring dman?)

    Harmonic for the right price is a no brainer but what is the right price?

    What happens if Clandenning shows progression over the next 30 games ala Kassian and can be kept for cheap? What if Sekera can continue to get his point shot through like we have seen in the last few games? What happens if Davidson (we have seen that he can shoot) or Nurse gets a few sorties on the PP and finds range? Do we need to go hunting for a single offensive dman, that comes with a cost, if we can get contributions by committee?

    If Eberle-McDavid continue to roll and Ebs finishes say with 25-27 goals is it at all possible to project Eberle as a 40goal scorer in 2016-2017? (in a very hushedvoice is 45-50 out of the realm of possibility?) Can we comprehend two pairs of winger-centres that right now today project to outscore everyone not named Benn-Seguin, Kane-Panarin? Going further have we even begun to see the potential of Drai-Hall, Eberle-McDavid when those two centres are only 19 years old?

    Four teams in the Pacific division are aging (two rather rapidly Canucks and Sharks), three of them are good this year but for how much longer will they be able to keep up to younger, faster players? I have no idea honestly and it could be a while but the speed of McDavid, Hall, Eberle, Drai and Nuge is not something that should be discounted.

    This is what I have been wrestling with. Every time we talk about a acquiring a right dman in a trade people howl when you mention Eberle or Nuge. Soooo if we hang on to all of them will our young dcore progress enough in the next two years to become a cup contender. I think that would be a stretch and would prefer to trade for a player like Hamonic. That contract is gold and allows you to spend money in other areas. To do this we have to give up one of these guys both from a talent perspective (to aquire Hamonic) and a monetary perspective (we won’t be able to afford all of the 6 mil contracts when Drai, Nurse and Mcdavid are up). I believe we just need to add 1 dman and this team is a contender, maybe even next year. And that dman does not have to be a point producer as long as he can make a good outlet pass. That is all this group of forwards really needs.
    There are two other options 1) You hope the Islanders would accept one of our young dmen (I would say Davidson or Reinhart) plus Yakupov for Hamonic. I doubt they would accept this and you are giving up a dman to acquire one.
    2) They leave the team as is and acquire someone like Jason Demers via free agency. This option would probably put them up against the cap without any money for the rookies when their ELC’s expire. I also would be scared of Demers contract turning into another Fayne situation in a year or two.

  37. Statsman says:

    Магия 10: It’s being-hit-on-the-head lessons up there. Tell them you an Oiler’s fan. Special discount.

    Right next door to the abuse room. Special Oiler’s fan discount also applies.

  38. AsiaOil says:

    To further the topic of Jordan Eberle – but let me preface – he’s a supremely skilled stick skill guy who is on the small side and not the quickest rabbit in the race. But a very nice player who I comp to Joey Mullen – a 1000/1000 games played/points guy. High praise indeed. Ebs played 32 games against big “tough” western conference teams (ANA/SJS/LAK/NAS/MIN/STL/WIN) this year and last. Your definition of big and tough may differ – that’s fine. I did not include CHI because they are smaller and seem happy to run and gun with EDM knowing they can close them out when necessary. Eberle has put up the following numbers against these teams last year and this year:

    32 Games – 5-13-18 / -19

    I did this quickly so I might be a bit off on the numbers – but not that much, IMHO Hamonic plus a bigger RW replacement (more size less points) is the way to go given Ebs contract. Again I’m not denying Ebs skill – that’s obvious – but is his package what we need to compete in the WC?

  39. Chachi says:

    LoDog,

    LOL. Well played!

  40. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Wow!

    We know from the Oilers and their rotten core that when a team struggles, you blame their talented young players.

    Clearly he’s at fault for Ottawa’s recent problems.I mean, if our rotten core can beat them down 7-2, how rotten must they be?

    Think we can get him for Schultz and a 2nd?

    Karlsson, like Hall, is obviously the problem.

  41. BONVIE says:

    G Money:
    Doug McLachlan,

    Absolutely.Cost is a critical part of the issue.Cost paid will rest on Chia’s hands (if he can make it happen). The other part of the equation, cost in cap $, is a bargain.

    Cash’s equation, fittingly enough, is likely correct.

    As for where Hamonic sits, maybe I’ve been misreading, but I do think there have been statements that Hamonic isn’t a top pairing guy, even on the Oilers.That’s the part that surprises me.He’s top pairing on more teams than not.

    Off the top of my head, the only teams where I think he wouldn’t be top pairing are probably LA, NSH, and CHI.

    Another bunch of teams (EDM, CBJ, COL, BUF, VAN, maybe WSH, probably NYR, probably BOS, PHI, DET, NJD, TOR) he’d be the de facto 1D.

    The other 15 he’d be top pairing, but likely partnered with someone (depending on how much importance you give to handedness)who would be the de facto 1D (I’m thinking OEL, Giordano, Hedman, Subban, etc).

    It’s when I hear someone suggest he’d be a 3D on the Oilers that I kinda go batshit crazy!

    Good post! I agree with you also in that one Defenseman on the top of this clubs roster like a Hamonic or a Myers will have that domino effect to knock everyone down to an easier level of competition. Actually this seems to me like easy logic to follow and i think most posters immediately knew exactly what you meant, after the first post. On the other hand it is likely you may have the odd guy who will never be able to follow that logic.

    Unfortunately about 10 games ago I came to the realization that We needed to trade Eberle for that top Dman, i think mostly because of Eberle’s tentative play after coming back into the lineup. Now I am head over heels again for Eberle. I mean really you have two amazing playmaking centers like Drai and McDavid, why would you consider trading such a natural finisher like Eberle. This guys hands are ridiculous and somehow i seemed to have forgoten this. I mean who replaces such a natural sniper.

    I am now in the camp of trading other players, prospects, and picks to get our Dman. I am hoping Chiralli has now moved himself in this camp.

  42. raventalon40 says:

    AsiaOil:
    To further the topic of Jordan Eberle – but let me preface – he’s a supremely skilled stick skill guy who is on the small side and not the quickest rabbit in the race. But a very nice player who I comp to Joey Mullen – a 1000/1000 games played/points guy. High praise indeed. Ebs played 32 games against big“tough” western conference teams (ANA/SJS/LAK/NAS/MIN/STL/WIN) this year and last. Your definition of big and tough may differ – that’s fine. I did not include CHI because they are smaller and seem happy to run and gun with EDM knowing they can close them out when necessary. Eberle has put up the following numbers against these teams last year and this year:

    32 Games – 5-13-18 / -19

    I did this quickly so I might be a bit off on the numbers – but not that much, IMHO Hamonic plus a bigger RW replacement (more size less points) is the way to go given Ebs contract. Again I’m not denying Ebs skill – that’s obvious – but is his package what we need to compete in the WC?

    This is also where I stand on this.

    Eberle looks great in flashes with Hall and RNH, and looks tremendous playing with McDavid. But so does Pouliot and Yakupov. His contribution can be replaced cheaper with FA signings like Pouliot or re-signing guys like Purcell.

    Time to cash in on his value but also lose the 6 million cap hit. Build around those ELC’s while you still have them in play.

  43. Oilspill says:

    We can’t get too confident. Yes McD has helped but it was against both bottom feeders.

  44. fifthcartel says:

    Interesting Stauffer mentioned getting a prospect defensemen or a 3rd and a pick for Schultz. Maybe the Oilers would be interested in Mikael Wikstrand from Ottawa, they were a finalist for Schultz.

  45. commonfan14 says:

    Player’s ability (X) x Player’s on-ice situation (Y) = Player’s on-ice results (Z).

    Improve Y and you improve Z, even if X remains static.

  46. Statsman says:

    Does anyone else think that Hamonic, if played in less of a “shut-down” role, could provide a fair bit of offence as well as being a defensive stalwart?

    I have watched him play quite often going back to his junior days in Moose Jaw and I have always felt that there is a bit of an offensive upside to him.

    IMO, he has a better than decent shot and is also a very good passer.

    Facing the toughest competition (while probably not playing with the greatest offensive forwards),
    he had 28 points in 45 games in 2012-13 and also 33 points in 71 games in 2014-15.

    As well, in his last two years of junior, he scored 79 points in 88 games (.89 pts/game).

    I feel like the Oilers already have a few candidates that could play the shut-down role…if Hamonic is given some power play time and some EV shifts with our top two lines, IMO he could produce north of 30 points per season.

    Then maybe we wouldn’t have to blow a huge wad of cash on the Shattenkirk’s of the world.

    (This is, of course, making the assumption that we do indeed trade for him).

  47. Doug McLachlan says:

    fifthcartel,

    Wikstrand is an interesting thought.

  48. HenryDrix says:

    slopitch,

    The problem is there is only so much ice time. I would want McDavid playing 60 mins if possible. Good players want to play more than 12 mins a game.

  49. striatic says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – Yes ! Trade Eberle (and $6MM) for Harmonic, and that $2MM+ you spend differently

    – Harmonic + > Eberle

    There’s no doubt that the Hamonic contract is ultra high value given it’s length and his age.

    Purcell seems more capable at RW lately, and Draisaitl has had success at RW this year as well. Yakupov looked really good with McDavid in their short time together and while pretty much anyone would, you can see that an RW without Eberle isn’t quite as unimaginable as it was even this summer.

    Hamonic could become a very high level #1, he’s still not in his prime. Like CA$H-MCMONEY! says, maybe he ends up being less than that but at his cap hit that’s a really easy bet to make.

    For me, if you’re moving Eberle, you need to have in house depth to back up the hole created at RW, if that depth exists, it could be at worst a break even trade and at best, a franchise defining one.

  50. Pouzar says:

    Eberle blah blah blah….let’s keep the narrative alive or we can look at 5 yrs worth of data and see nearly everyone (including Nuge, Hall, Petry) have a higher Corsi rating with Eberle versus without Eberle.

    Just give it up already people.

  51. stevezie says:

    Adam Wu,

    If I may be so bold, I think the debate is looking at things in a strange way. Forget whether how much better Klefbom is on the second pairing than the first, the second pairing is the thing that is dramatically improved.

    Hamonic (or whoever) shows up, two people get bumped down a pairing and a weaker player doesn’t play at all. Non-Hamonic players may or may not be better, but all three pairings are strengthened.

  52. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Statsman,

    he at no point had 28P in 45GP

    28P in 117GP over 2 seasons, sure

  53. The Trade Guy says:

    McDavid is the candle in the dark.

    No offense to tay tay, ebs and the nuge but Connor makes the Oilers worth watching. He’s the reward for 10 years of pain.

    And fuck those garbage dick Flyers for depriving the hockey world of three months of his greatness.

  54. Oilspill says:

    Wow. I’d call it an accident.

    The Trade Guy:
    McDavid is the candle in the dark.

    No offense to tay tay, ebs and the nuge but Connor makes the Oilers worth watching. He’s the reward for 10 years of pain.

    And fuck those garbage dick Flyers for depriving the hockey world of three months of his greatness.

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