LOST WEEKEND

In going 2-2-0 last week, the Edmonton Oilers showed us what might be ahead, and then reminded us of how long the road to glory is when you cannot play defense. Oiler fans, who haven’t had four actual defensemen to cheer for at the same time since 2005-06, were disappointed but not surprised. This cannot stand, man. Except it will. The Oilers need some help on defense, have since Smid was a baby.

DIAL M FOR MURDER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-2-0
  • Oilers after 54 in 2014-15: 15-30-9, 39 points (-56 GD)
  • Oilers after 54 in 2015-16: 21-28-5, 47 points (-29 GD)

It was a horrible weekend, Edmonton losing to Montreal and the Islanders by a combined 13-2 score. National television game was poor, and the kicker game in Brooklyn leaves us here. The Edmonton Oilers remain addled defensively and anything resembling structure is a fleeting thing. They were 2-2-0 on the week, that was my prediction, but the way they did it was both exhilarating and aggravating.

DEFENSE, GACK!

oilers blue nov 30

  • Sekera—Fayne run well together, I think that should be the de facto first pairing for the rest of the year. When Klefbom returns, run him with Davidson. Seriously. For me, even during yesterday’s debacle, this pairing has logic and reason. I would absolutely be pleased to see this pairing line up together opening night 2016.
  • Davidson—Gryba were good when together (5-5) and Davidson was even better apart. He went 4-2 with Schultz, 3-1 with Reinhart and 1-0 with Fayne. Smart player, he was out there for 25 total minutes and they should have double-shifted him. Lordy.
  • Eric Gryba was 5-5 with Davidson, 2-9 with Griffin Reinhart and 0-1 with Justin Schultz. The big man was not effective with GR, and everything made sense with Davidson. McLellan has his second pairing rock until Klefbom gets back.
  • Reinhart—Schultz was not good (2-6) but we kind of knew that before it started. Credit Todd McLellan with getting them away from each other (played 4:03 together) but Andrej Sekera couldn’t help Schultz either (2-4 in 5:32 together) and of course he couldn’t help other places.
  • Reinhart—Gryba (not listed above) went 2-9 in the true bollocks pairing of the afternoon. Reinhart’s most effective partner this season? Brandon Davidson, and that is something of a trend for the team’s defenders.
  • Darnell Nurse sat out, suspect we will see him on Tuesday. Will he have a new partner? I am honestly surprised Adam Clendening hasn’t played more. Will he draw in tomorrow?

OILERS CENTERS, YESTERDAY

oil c nov 30

  • Matt Hendricks and his line won the possession battle in the lower regions of the game. He was 64 percent in the dot, he was -1 and his wingers were even. He wasn’t the problem.
  • Connor McDavid scored a goal (the only point in the game), was -2 and almost won the possession battle overall against JT. I will call that a solid effort for McDavid, your mileage may vary. I like this line but worry they will use a game like this to tinker. Keep it together, Mr. McLellan, Pouliot is good there.
  • Leon Draisaitl and his line got five shots, were -5 as a group and saw deHaan—Hamonic while McDavid saw Leddy—Boychuk. I honestly don’t know the better pairing, but the high-danger scoring chances favored McDavid’s line and the Leon trio seems a tad slow. I wonder about injury to the big man. There were several frames that showed LD wasn’t his usual hard-working self, especially on the back check (the entire team failed in this area, what a shambles).
  • Mark Letestu has not been effective for several games. I fear Nail Yakupov will pay the price.

HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  1. Connor McDavid 3
  2. Iiro Pakarinen 2
  3. Zack Kassian 2
  4. Jordan Eberle 1
  5. Justin Schultz 1

Interesting because of the names here, but also interesting because of the names not on display. I am a big fan of the Hall cluster, they need to be better and more consistent. The group misses Nuge, too, something I didn’t mention in the Leon comment. When a 20 and 19 year old are playing 27 of your big EV minutes, that is going to be a tough afternoon a lot of the time—especially a team with the array of centers available to the Islanders.

WINGERS, YESTERDAY

oilers f nov 30

  • Iiro Pakarinen had two of Edmonton’s very few high-danger scoring chances, won the possession battle in a horrible game and finished even with three shots and a takeaway. Insanely bad game for his team, but I count him (along with Davidson and McDavid) as one of the men on the ice who gave a damn. Lauri Korpikoski. Trust him to break out with a spike in possession during Armageddon. Lordy. The man is opposite George on skates.
  • Pouliot—Eberle had a frustrating weekend and if you run back over the two games this line didn’t get a lot of breathing room. Looks like teams viewing tape from earlier in the week decided to manhandle the trio and it worked. Edmonton needs that power play to punish opponents, and it would help if the refs called the rule book. I sometimes wonder if a team watching the Oilers would make a push for Pouliot. He is a solid scorer, and he disrupts the opposition when they are trying to get their engines started. Lots of fans focus on the penalties, but if you count the number of sorties interrupted by sly interference, a stick in the right place, or stealth staying in the zone to outnumber the possession team, it is a lot. People will crap on Pouliot for the own goal, and I get that it is frustrating, but for me Pouliot is a keeper and putting up with some hanging threads is well worth it for what he brings. I feel as though the Pouliot Fan Club is not a large one these days, it is a shame.
  • Hall—Purcell did not deliver any high-danger chances, but Hall did have a couple of moments and Purcell one, too. I don’t worry about this line beyond the idea that Leon might be nursing an injury of some sort (no evidence, just viewing). They need to be better, though.
  • Kassian—Yakupov were not effective with Letestu and I suspect this line gets a tweak. Kassian and Yakupov spent some time with Hall, Leon and McDavid—separate and apart—but nothing rhymed.

TODD MCLELLAN, NOT HAPPY

  • Todd McLellan: ”There are a number of young players who are trying to break into the league and create careers, are they passing the grade? I don’t know. There is a number of players who are trying to hold on and survive, are they doing what they need to do? It is a critical time in the season. And then there are others who have reputations, whether they are really strong or somewhat weak, you have an opportunity to change it or grow it and they let that go today.” Source

Well, those are interesting quotes from the coach, and there was another one that involved ”transactions” and ”Bakersfield”—the coach is clearly unhappy with someone. WHO could they send down? Well, if they want to avoid waivers, it is a small list. If waivers are no issue, there are a few candidates:

  • G Anders Nilsson—Hasn’t had an effective game since December 6.
  • D Justin Schultz—If there is interest, why quibble over a third or a fourth?
  • D Anton Lander—He hasn’t played in two weeks, perhaps he can head down on a conditioning stint.

Beyond that? The team could send Griffin Reinhart down and we may see it. Darnell Nurse? I can’t see it, he remains one of the six best options for this team. Adam Clendening? Seems less than sporting to waive him after only a quick look. Who could we see getting called up?

  • G Laurent Brossoit—They probably want to have a look anyway.
  • D Jordan Oesterle—Speedy defender is earning a look.
  • D David Musil—May get a cup of coffee before April.
  • L Luke Gazdic—Has played well during demotion.
  • F Jujhar Khaira—He gave the team good minutes during his first recall.
  • R Tyler Pitlick—Back, healthy and effective in his last 10 games.
  • R Rob Klinkhammer—Enjoying a strong run in Bakersfield.

HAMONIC DISTORTION

If the Islanders are going to deal Travis Hamonic, the Oilers should be front and center in the conversation. Do we all agree? I hope we do. That said, I am finding it increasingly difficult to engage people on the subject. Why? The issue-framing is ridiculous. In a negotiation, when you are dealing from a point of weakness, you are going to overpay. If fans expect Peter Chiarelli to acquire Hamonic or Sami Vatanen or Jonas Brodin for even 80 cents on the dollar, good luck.

It is likely Oilers fans balk at the price eventually paid. I learned that lesson when Edmonton went to market in an effort to deal Billy Guerin and Dougie Weight. They were dealing from weakness and ended up with Anson Carter and Jochen Hecht (respectively) and a bunch of other pieces.

When the Oilers grab that defender to go with Sekera—Fayne/Klefbom—Davidson? It will cost a pretty penny. Brace yourself.

thelostweekend

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun day on the show with very smart people. TSN1260, begins at 10 this morning:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. The week after the AS break was weird, really weird.
  • Brian King, NonStopSportsPicks. PDO talks about the Super Bowl and CFL free agency, and I will give him three minutes to fix the Oilers—but he will only need two.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, The SuperFAN and Copper & Blue. A crazy week for Edmonton, 2-2-0 never felt so awesome while also being so horrawful.
  • Jeff Hauser, SB Nation and Radio Hauser. He predicted the Broncos to win it all and has been on the Lowdown for many weeks telling us. Today? We congratulate him.

Text 10-1260, @Lowetide on twitter and I do read the comments here as I can during the show. Should be a blast, my thanks to Rex for the Lost Weekend idea.

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260 Responses to "LOST WEEKEND"

« Older Comments
  1. BAUCE says:

    Found on Google: as of 2001 the oilers had played 73 afternoon games and were a dismal .397 in those games.

    I doubt the 2002 – 2016 record is much better.

    I guess it’s a franchise thing.

  2. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    I’m not seeing too many affordable top 2 D this summer and have been advocating for veteran skilled fwd’s for a while. Backes checks a lot of boxes for me on a decreasing cap hit 5 year contract no less. This young group cheats offence the minute they face any adversity, that’s not solved by only adding a couple RHD.

    Our 5×5 play must improve by leaps to compete in the west.

    Btw – this United flight has WIFI, it’s 21 century living (Matt Good reference)

  3. square_wheels says:

    JDï™,

    Just a mention of the YELLOW belt coming out of the pantry corrected behaviour immediately.

    And it was mom, not dad, that doled out punishment in our house.

  4. ChiliChunk says:

    square_wheels:
    böök¡je,

    Some over the knee spankings could happen tonight when Dad gets home from work ! WITH THE YELLOW BELT (which was an 18″ long piece of 70’s lino that hurt like a mf’er).

    JDï™:
    square_wheels,

    Your Dad had a unique sense of style.

    Well to be fair the guy only had an 18″ waist so I think he deserves a little slack regarding his fashion choices…

  5. haters says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    We only have bad goaltending in any game in which Nilsson appears. It either means that he is mopping up Talbot’s mess, or is soon to create a mess of his very own making.

    I can’t get over the fact that this is the third year in a fucking row that we have seen a netminder absolutely melt down in front of our eyes. Game come right off the rails, confidence blown, the whole 9 yards. I’d be hard pressed to name three other netminders in the history of the Oilers who had it come apart to the degree that it has for Dubnyk, Scrivens & Nilsson the past 3 years running.

    Nilsson small sample size of course, including the little run where he looked like the next Pekka Rinne, but the crash hasn’t just been regression to the mean, it’s more like from the peak of Mauna Kea to the ocean floor. Sea level is just a threshold partway between the two extremes. He’s about two sigmas below “replacement level” at the moment.

    The one goalie that seemed immune to that? Bryz….
    Why?
    Veteran goalie that held players and himself more accountable and had some past success to speak from. This team needs more veterans and less try outs. Cam Ward comes to mind. Or maybe a veteran backup to help mentor Talbot.
    Whatever they have been doing the last 3 years with net minders simply doesn’t work.

    This team is so frustrating to cheer for. It seems as if players just don’t want to come here. Not sure if that has more to do with the city in general or the team management/owner.

  6. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    stevezie,

    I’m not seeing too many affordable top 2 D this summer and have been advocating for veteran skilled fwd’s for a while. Backes checks a lot of boxes for me on a decreasing cap hit 5 year contract no less. This young group cheats offence the minute they face any adversity, that’s not solved by only adding a couple RHD.

    Our 5×5 play must improve by leaps to compete in the west.

    Btw – this United flight has WIFI, it’s 21 century living (Matt Good reference)

    Where would Backes play? Only way it makes sense is if you run one of Nuge or Draisaitl on the wing, and while the Hall-Nuge-Draisaitl line was effective, I’m not sure you want to take Drai from that center position. It’d be like playing Getzlaf on RW. Not the best use of his talents.

    Using Nuge outside of the PvP saw-off role at 5v5 giving McDavid and Draisaitl cover likely isn’t the best use of his talents either.

    If the Oilers spend big on a UFA forward this offseason, it’s going to be for 2LW IMO. Allows you to base your 3rd line off of Pouliot-Nuge, which is fantastic, as well as providing a bigger presence on the McDavid line. Lucic, Ladd, Eriksson, and Boedker are the obvious candidates, all of whom I’d be happy to add for a reasonable price.

  7. Adam Wu says:

    Water Fire: Maybe not, but creationism is a specific unique feature of Christianity and that type of comment is usually a shot at it. But Olive hasn’t clarified. Not a big deal.

    You haven’t ever heard of Harun Yahya, Islamic Creationist, have you? Or the political movement in Turkey trying to ban the teaching of evolution in their schools on Islamic religious grounds? Or the Hare Krishna Hindu creationists?

    Every single religious group that has any degree of political influence has its own version of creationism (and by creationism I don’t just mean people believing in a particular creation myth, but an active political movement to force the teaching of that particular myth to the school children of the particular area, and to deny/outlaw the teaching of evolution to the same).

    Creationism is by no means “unique” to Christianity.

  8. square_wheels says:

    ChiliChunk,

    Hahahahahaha shit, it was linoleum cut in the shape of a cricket bat. Pretty sure my dads belt was slightly larger, maybe 28″.

    Any kind of corporal punishment at the hands of my dad would have been ugly, farmers don’t do things gently.

    Those of us in the 40+ crowd didn’t receive time outs.

  9. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    Play him RW, he’s our Shane Doan.

    Slew foots and dirty head shots aside.

  10. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    OF17,

    Play him RW, he’s our Shane Doan.

    Slew foots and dirty head shots aside.

    If he’s down to play RW and will come for a reasonable price, sign me up. Perhaps Stamkos is influencing my thinking too much, but I bet he’s looking for a top-6 center position.

  11. dustrock says:

    I don’t know how to embed stuff but I was bored at work so I looked up some WARRIOR charts on our D vs. some Lowetide Hard Targets (this is g/60, a/60, p/60, CF, CA, CRelTm).

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/JXTH9GQR6?:display_count=yes

    KLEFBOM v. PIETRANGELO

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/PSBJS9PSW?:display_count=yes

    SHATTENKIRK v. SCHULTZ

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/MSC33JWJH?:display_count=yes

    BIG BUFF v. TROUBA

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/H43TP9TJS?:display_count=yes

    HAMONIC v. VATANEN

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/23HDCBP3X?:display_count=yes

    LINDHOLM v. VATANEN

  12. Adam Wu says:

    This is not a comment directed at any specific comment or commenter.

    There are few things more intellectually dishonest than the “I’m just voicing my subjective opinion/belief, I don’t have to support it with any argument, any logic, or any data. I have the right to say whatever I want to”, particularly when it is, as is most common, done in defence of statements that have given offense in some way.

    It is a meaningless truism that anyone *can* say anything they want, but the fact is that one has *chosen,* of one’s own free will, to put that opinion out into a forum intended for debate, discussion and the engagement of ideas.

    Dropping the “it’s just my opinion, I don’t have to support it” defence is essentially an admission that one is either 1) prosetylizing but not wanting to admit it, or 2) flat out trolling.

  13. vinotintazo says:

    Was I the only one hearing the NYI commentator calling #29 “Draicycle”?

  14. AsiaOil says:

    I think there is a deal to be had with WIN – but just for shits and giggles – here’s a biggie:

    To WIN: RNH, Ebs, Reinhart ($14.125 million)

    To EDM: Myers, Stafford, Ladd who agrees on extension amount/terms before trade ($14.35 million)

    Boom……

    Hall Drai Stafford
    Ladd CMD Yak

    Sekera Myers
    Nurse Hamonic (traded for Klefbom)
    Davidson Fayne

  15. OF17 says:

    dustrock:
    I don’t know how to embed stuff but I was bored at work so I looked up some WARRIOR charts on our D vs. some Lowetide Hard Targets (this is g/60, a/60, p/60, CF, CA, CRelTm).

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/JXTH9GQR6?:display_count=yes

    KLEFBOM v. PIETRANGELO

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/PSBJS9PSW?:display_count=yes

    SHATTENKIRK v. SCHULTZ

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/MSC33JWJH?:display_count=yes

    BIG BUFF v. TROUBA

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/H43TP9TJS?:display_count=yes

    HAMONIC v. VATANEN

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/23HDCBP3X?:display_count=yes

    LINDHOLM v. VATANEN

    Man Klefbom looks good by those metrics. Find another guy like him, and you have a pretty good top pairing. Thankfully Hamonic also shines by those numbers. Surprised that Vatanen didn’t show better to be honest. He’d be a fantastic addition to the 2nd pair, but counting on him to play top minutes with Klefbom at this point looks like a stretch.

    Also, Lindholm. Holy crap. I highly regarded him before, but man, those are some impressive stats. What a wonderful defender. I always love watching him. His passes, especially on the PP, have that Pronger crispness. Right on point, always hard, seldom fluttering. I bet his teammates love him.

  16. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    I think McD can make anyone an effective winger, I’d much rather see Pou hang with him, Ebs with Nuge and Hall/Drai. That leaves 2 RW and one LW to fill top 9.

    Kassian on the Ebs/Nuge line might be a terrific cycle/turnover line. Kassian separates players, Nuge hounds pucks and Ebs cashes in tight.

    Hall/Drai need someone to keep up, fly the D-zone after them and create turnovers. Purcell fills that role well, so if not him, cheaper version ideally.

    Connor/Pou makes sense, it’s the right side that needs to be sorted. Yak…..I just don’t see him aware enough for this line, as in find quiet spaces and cash them, as well as I’d like to see.

    The new wingers must have :
    -ability to kill penalties
    -the abilty to reliably collect pucks on the hash marks and make the safe play to exit the zone
    -above average game management track record (vets!)

  17. stevezie says:

    square_wheels,

    Great song, great album.

  18. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    OF17,

    I think McD can make anyone an effective winger, I’d much rather see Pou hang with him, Ebs with Nuge and Hall/Drai. That leaves 2 RW and one LW to fill top 9.

    Kassian on the Ebs/Nuge line might be a terrific cycle/turnover line. Kassian separates players, Nuge hounds pucks and Ebs cashes in tight.

    Hall/Drai need someone to keep up, fly the D-zone after them and create turnovers. Purcell fills that role well, so if not him, cheaper version ideally.

    Connor/Pou makes sense, it’s the right side that needs to be sorted. Yak…..I just don’t see him aware enough for this line, as in find quiet spaces and cash them, as well as I’d like to see.

    The new wingers must have :
    -ability to kill penalties
    -the abilty to reliably collect pucks on the hash marks and make the safe play to exit the zone
    -above average game management track record (vets!)

    I like those ideas. I’m looking at it slightly differently of course, but what you’ve said is reasonable. For me, the Nuge-Eberle combo doesn’t work for how the team is shaping up. Looks like Nuge will take as many hard minutes as possible, and Draisaitl and McDavid will use the open space to cash. Eberle is more of a cash player than a hard minutes player, which is why I have him in the top-6 and Pouliot riding shotgun to Nuge.

    With that in mind, you’re looking for a LW for McDavid-Eberle. They definitely need some physical help, as I’ve noticed the two of them being outmatched physically more often than other lines, so maybe Kassian is the answer. Could certainly be. Then you’d be looking for a RW for the Pouliot-Nuge line, a hard minutes guy that can score 15 goals and 30 points per season. Essentially Fernando Pisani. Oddly, that might be Teddy Purcell. The Hall-Draisaitl line would also be completed with Teddy Purcell or equivalent. Troy Brouwer would be a good option for any line in the top 9.

    Hall-Draisaitl-Brouwer
    Kassian-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-Nuge-Purcell

    That forward group would be among the top 10 in the league IMO. Yak traded for D of course (maybe Vatanen).

  19. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    So Byfuglien extends. Damn, the off-season options are dwindling.

  20. stevezie says:

    Adam Wu,

    I agree with this as well.

    I will not be offended if you voice an opinion I find objectionable, but you must accept that I’m going to attack that opinion (though, ideally, not attack you).

    OF17,

    Well, exactly. You only look at Backes if you are trading one of Nuge or Drai. Which obviously is not ideal, but if you think you can replace them as 3C with Backes maybe it’s not a backbreaker.

    square_wheels,

    Top targets of the moment include Goligoski, Campbell, Coburn, Hamhuis, Yandle, and Corey Potter.

    Obviously not all are top pairing.

  21. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    Solid combo’s, I like that setup. I think your right in that Nuge is going to be our Heavy lifting C. He needs a summer of tuuteledge on FO’s.

    Why I like Backes is FO ability, huge body that drives the net and can stand there long enough to cause havoc. He would be a good D centre, O RW. Suspect he gets a big contract somewhere, but he fits that description as big, heavy, some offence, leadership, good stick…..if not him than someone like him.

    Healthy Glencross type is what I’d like.

  22. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    Potter as a Canadian university scout I presume ?

    Campbell is still a strong 9/10 skater, amazing how long a career is when you have that perfect long stride. Bouwmeester is another that as long as he’s not concussed could be solid until 40.

    Hamhuis is good for 2 years max, the cliff is soon for him, hard miles but wonderful player. We have a comp in Davidson.

  23. theres oil in virginia says:

    vinotintazo:
    Was I the only one hearing the NYI commentator calling #29 “Draicycle”?

    You sure he wasn’t referring to the Oilers latest rebuild cycle?

    It’s funny ’cause it’s true. No, it’s not…funny that is.

  24. Hope is a good thing says:

    Not a stats or a computer guy by any means, although I have used some of both in a previous career. Does it look to anyone else like Yak’s CPU is too fast for his body and hands, not all the circuits are complete, and the software doesn’t quite match the program required. G, please help with correct analogies.

    I love his shot, his desire to score, and his love for the game, but I’m not sure his eyes, brain, and body are coordinated to the NHL level yet.

    How’s that for trying to get off this weekend’s games, religion, bad goaltending, stats versus opinions, bad goaltending, personal attacks, bad goaltending, … :-)

    They have turned north already, but it’s going to look a lot like the stock market with this roster: lots of peaks and valleys.

  25. BlueNoteNorth says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    So Byfuglien extends. Damn, the off-season options are dwindling.

    Given this, Hamonic for Trouba might be a possibility. NYI has inquired about Trouba in the past and a signed Hamonic fits within the Jets budget. Suspect Ladd is gone.

  26. OF17 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    So Byfuglien extends. Damn, the off-season options are dwindling.

    I wonder what this means for Trouba and Myers. One of them could switch to LD, but that still leaves an insanely expensive D corps. Byfuglien, Enstrom, and Myers alone cost almost $19 million. Add Trouba in there and it’s likely $24 million or so just for your top-4 D.

    For comparison, Nashville’s top-4 for next season will cost a hair over $18 million. Chicago would need to add a $7.5 million defender to Seabrook, Keith, and Hjalmarsson to match the Jets’ spending. San Jose, with Burns, Vlasic, Martin, and Braun, are still $5.5 million below that level. Can a budget team afford that?

    If I’m Chiarelli, I just added the Jets to my D target list.

    stevezie,

    We’ve been down this road before, so I won’t go into it in depth, but Backes would only replace Nuge’s minutes, not Draisaitl’s. There are very few players in the league that can emulate Draisaitl’s production this year, especially at 5v5, and especially when you take into account his size and defensive play.

  27. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    He’s a brilliant songwriter, very under appreciated.

    Avalanche is on my desert island list, with the Against Me! and Propaghandi catalogues.

  28. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    Enstrom has one year left until UFA ?

  29. OF17 says:

    square_wheels,

    Yeah, a peak Glencross would be ideal. Physical, can play with skill or on a shutdown line, good cycle player. I do wish Nuge were better at faceoffs. It’s the only thing holding him back from being the next Bergeron IMO.

    If Backes is willing to play wing 5v5 and take occasional draws, filling in at center on the PK and when there are injuries, he would be close to an ideal acquisition.

  30. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    OF17,

    Enstrom has one year left until UFA ?

    2 actually. If it weren’t for the LHD problem, he would be a good target.

  31. Pajamah says:

    OF17: I wonder what this means for Trouba and Myers. One of them could switch to LD, but that still leaves an insanely expensive D corps. Byfuglien, Enstrom, and Myers alone cost almost $19 million. Add Trouba in there and it’s likely $24 million or so just for your top-4 D.

    For comparison, Nashville’s top-4 for next season will cost a hair over $18 million. Chicago would need to add a $7.5 million defender to Seabrook, Keith, and Hjalmarsson to match the Jets’ spending. San Jose, with Burns, Vlasic, Martin, and Braun, are still $5.5 million below that level. Can a budget team afford that?

    If I’m Chiarelli, I just added the Jets to my D target list.

    Chiarelli needs to be pro-active. Get Hamonic now so that the Jets don’t do that deal. (Trouba for Hamonic)

    Then call Cheveldayoff (sp) and ask him about Trouba. Mention that we would be willing to offer the kid Klefbom money, and ask if Winnipeg wants to pay it, or would prefer compensatory picks.

  32. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    My point exactly. We’re going to pay dearly for coverage on this roster. Backes is illustrative of the player type.

  33. OF17 says:

    Pajamah: Chiarelli needs to be pro-active. Get Hamonic now so that the Jets don’t do that deal. (Trouba for Hamonic)

    Then call Cheveldayoff (sp) and ask him about Trouba. Mention that we would be willing to offer the kid Klefbom money, and ask if Winnipeg wants to pay it, or would prefer compensatory picks.

    I have a bad feeling that the Oilers will lose out on Hamonic due to this signing. The Jets already have their offense from the D solved with Enstrom, Byfuglien, and Myers. Hamonic being a cheap, stabilizing force who wants to be there above all else will be a huge incentive, and Trouba is the RHD that the Islanders desire.

    If Trouba were willing to sign for Klefbom money, he’d already be signed. I think he’s looking more for Myers money, which is where the Jets might look elsewhere.

  34. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    OF17,

    My point exactly. We’re going to pay dearly for coverage on this roster. Backes is illustrative of the player type.

    But we don’t necessarily have to pay dearly, or rather, we don’t necessarily need the type of total coverage that Backes would provide. Going back to Brouwer, he’ll likely cost $1.5-2 million less than Backes will per season. That’s significant change. If Nurse signs for a Klefbom-like deal, that choice alone covers more than half of the deal. Is the difference between Backes at RW and Brouwer at RW that big?

  35. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: Trouba for Hamonic

    If I were WPG I’d do it in a heartbeat

    From the day we heard Hamonic wants to get as close to Winterpeg as possible I assumed he ends up in Winnipeg. One prereq for a deal was for the Jets to close with one of their D. NYI are playing for a D coming back. Edmonton is just a bargaining card. 3…2..1

  36. square_wheels says:

    If Garth Snow lands Trouba+ for Hamonic…….damn it looks so likely now.

    Tabernac Monday.

  37. stevezie says:

    square_wheels,

    Yep. Several imperfect but still useful options. If we sign one we are also signing the option to keep a forward, but if we sign a forward we are also signing the option to trade a forward for a more suitable defenceman. It’s really tricky to discuss these things without knowing the specifics, which we never can.

    I love that album and that song has been in my head since you mentioned it. Have you heard his b-sides/acoustics album? It might be my favourite.

    Against Me! does the best cover of Wagon Wheel I’ve heard. I know a lot of people are over that song, but I still love it.

    OF17,

    Well if we trade Draisatle we don’t put Backes in his spot, we put Nuge there. so you’d have the classic 4-93-14 line, let’s say 44-97-10 and then Backes anchoring your third, which exactly what he was born to do and excel at. Assuming we keep Pou and resign Ted that’s an excellent top 9, and now you have a D worth trading Drai for and probably one you signed too.

    But Backes is getting old and plays a style that wears you, and as you mention Drai is a unique talent. It would have to be one helluva D coming back. Of course you can say the same thing about Nuge. And there’s no guarantee that we could sign Backes, or that we could find a worthy D to trade Nuge or Drai for.

    One thing is becoming clearer- there are things to like about Ted and Yak but Ebs is the only elite rw on the team. I don’t blame the scouts (or the owner), 2012 was just not a great draft year.

  38. Pajamah says:

    OF17: I have a bad feeling that the Oilers will lose out on Hamonic due to this signing. The Jets already have their offense from the D solved with Enstrom, Byfuglien, and Myers. Hamonic being a cheap, stabilizing force who wants to be there above all else will be a huge incentive, and Trouba is the RHD that the Islanders desire.

    If Trouba were willing to sign for Klefbom money, he’d already be signed. I think he’s looking more for Myers money, which is where the Jets might look elsewhere.

    So Myers is making $5.5. If the Oilers offer Trouba 5.475 per season, its only a 1st and 3rd. Considering they gave up more for Reinhart is troubling, but I’d say worth it to get Trouba.

    Maybe trade away some contracts (Purcell, Schultz, Pouliot) and see if you can’t get another 1st with the combination of picks. Trade the pick plus a 3rd so that the Oilers aren’t giving them a lottery pick, and Bobs your uncle.

  39. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    Nope, Brouwer would be a nice fit. Backes gets more on rep alone, wearing The C and not spending the year on modified duties means harushka for him.

  40. stevezie says:

    Hamonic would be perfect, but after signing Buff WInnipeg must be desperate for a price controlled Hamonic. The only way they don’t move get him is if the choose instead to move Trouba or Myers for a price controlled forward, where (as has been mentioned) they are about to be thin as I can’t see them keeping Ladd.

    We could use Ladd, maybe instead of Pouliot? But that would be a gutsy trade to make considering Ladd is probably excited to go UFA.

  41. Water Fire says:

    Adam Wu: You haven’t ever heard of Harun Yahya, Islamic Creationist, have you? Or the political movement in Turkey trying to ban the teaching of evolution in their schools on Islamic religious grounds? Or the Hare Krishna Hindu creationists?

    Every single religious group that has any degree of political influence has its own version of creationism (and by creationism I don’t just mean people believing in a particular creation myth, but an active political movement to force the teaching of that particular myth to the school children of the particular area, and to deny/outlaw the teaching of evolution to the same).

    Creationism is by no means “unique” to Christianity.

    Sorry not worded properly. We should drop it out of respect.

  42. OF17 says:

    stevezie,

    Any talk of trading Drai leaves me feeling queasy. It would have to be an unquestionably elite defenseman coming back. A Pietrangelo type. It’s hard to extrapolate based on 44 games, but assuming he continues on this path, we’d be trading one of the better and more unique young centers in the entire world if we traded Draisaitl. We’d have to get a similar D back in return.

    As much as we loved the 4-93-14 line in its time, I’m glad we’re in a new paradigm. Draisaitl looks better with Hall than either of them did, and I think the 93-14 combination is a little overrated. Not as much spark at either end of the rink as they should have. 4-29, 97-14 (early days warning), and 67-93 seems to work much better to everyone’s advantage. Which leaves 10 out in the cold, unless he takes Eberle’s job between now and the end of the season.

  43. square_wheels says:

    Магия 10,

    I’ve said this from the start, albeit, in a much more skeptical manner. But if he wants to be near family, then playing anywhere but Peg makes no logical sense. Your ass belongs to the club from Sept until May/June, so what benefits, other than a couple hours less flying helps this situation. Players don’t get weekends off to fly home everytime they have 2 days off. They must train, recover, rehab. This has always been Snow and the agent ratcheting the deal up.

  44. OF17 says:

    Pajamah: So Myers is making $5.5. If the Oilers offer Trouba 5.475 per season, its only a 1st and 3rd. Considering they gave up more for Reinhart is troubling, but I’d say worth it to get Trouba.

    Maybe trade away some contracts (Purcell, Schultz, Pouliot) and see if you can’t get another 1st with the combination of picks. Trade the pick plus a 3rd so that the Oilers aren’t giving them a lottery pick, and Bobs your uncle.

    If Trouba gets to July 1 without being traded or re-signed, I think that’s a great idea. $5.475 million would be enough to give Winnipeg troubles while also being reasonable for the Oilers. The ole Brian Burke “use the offer sheet as a trade negotiation tactic only” might work better though.

  45. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    The new AM live album is fantastic, Adam Willlard holds them together now so they crush live.

  46. OF17 says:

    square_wheels:
    Магия 10,

    I’ve said this from the start, albeit, in a much more skeptical manner. But if he wants to be near family, then playing anywhere but Peg makes no logical sense. Your ass belongs to the club from Sept until May/June, so what benefits, other than a couple hours less flying helps this situation. Players don’t get weekends off to fly home everytime they have 2 days off. They must train, recover, rehab. This has always been Snow and the agentratcheting the deal up.

    The thing with Western Canada is that maybe he moves his family there. No visa issues, and Alberta is essentially the closest to Winnipeg in culture you can get as an NHL player. From what I understand, the Hamonics have already sold the family farm, which makes them much more mobile than if they had had that strong family tie to a single location. I’m just extrapolating here, but I think that’s why Calgary and Edmonton ended up on the list. No idea why or if Vancouver did.

  47. Pajamah says:

    OF17: If Trouba gets to July 1 without being traded or re-signed, I think that’s a great idea. $5.475 million would be enough to give Winnipeg troubles while also being reasonable for the Oilers. The ole Brian Burke “use the offer sheet as a trade negotiation tactic only” might work better though.

    Agreed. See it better approached as “Hey Chevy, 1st and 3rd for Trouba?”

    “That’s not enough”

    “Its what the book says I need to compensate you based on what we would pay him”

    “So youre going to offer sheet him?”

    “……..I didn’t say that, but since you’ve broached the subject”

  48. square_wheels says:

    OF17,

    My hope is chia swoops in with an Ebs deal to land him.

  49. striker says:

    Let’s say the Jets could not sign Byfuglien and he was traded today leaving a void on the Jets blueline. Would people be saying that the Jets would then go hard after Hamonic to replace Byfuglien?

    Byfuglien signed –> Trouba will be traded for a cost controlled Hamonic
    Byfuglien traded –> Jets will pursue Hamonic to replace Byfuglien’s minutes

    I guess the Oilers were out of luck in either circumstance….

  50. stevezie says:

    OF17,

    Not exactly out in the cold. The one thing he has going for him is a perfectly reasonable contract so if he winds up on a productive third line there’s no problem. And since he’ll be playing with either Drai, Nuge or Connor there is no reason why he shouldn’t be.

    But Eberle remains the only elite. Yes, Dari and Nuge are both better and Cs but we’re talking about what is easier to replace, a 3c or a 1rw.

    Even moreso than usual I’m not sure I’m right on this.

  51. square_wheels says:

    striker,

    All you need to do is bring up Petry and my tabernac Monday is complete.

    Now an hour plus drive through Houston rush hour traffic, hooray me.

  52. who says:

    So Buff extends with Winnipeg. Good for them. Didn’t think they’d do it but I like the 5 year term. I think the Oilers would have offered him that contract in the summer. I do think they need to cheapen their d though.
    OK this should stir the pot. Hall and Davidson to Winnipeg for Myers and Ehlers. Then if Winnipeg doesn’t do Trouba for Hamonic I would offer Eberle and Fayne(Edmonton retains some salary) for Hamonic and Bailey or Lee.
    There I’ve created a team with no wingers but I sure nuff fixed the defense. Line combos are maybe

    Ehlers Drai Kass or Ehlers Nuge Drai
    Poo Mac Yak or Poo Mac Kas
    Bailey Nuge Pak or Yak Bailey Pak

    Good chance they will get a premium winger in the draft to slot in here somewhere

    Sek Myers
    Klef Hamonic
    Nur Gryba
    Rein Clen

    DONE What’s next

  53. godot10 says:

    Pajamah: Chiarelli needs to be pro-active. Get Hamonic now so that the Jets don’t do that deal. (Trouba for Hamonic)

    Then call Cheveldayoff (sp) and ask him about Trouba. Mention that we would be willing to offer the kid Klefbom money, and ask if Winnipeg wants to pay it, or would prefer compensatory picks.

    All good except that Trouba wants Doughty money (to sign before his contract expires). Trouba wants to go shopping for an offer sheet.

  54. Thoughts on the Oilers: Adjusting Expectations, Defence and + Radio Spot | The SuperFan says:

    […] Lowetide on Monday morning to discuss the Oilers, including the back-to-back losses, the holes on defence […]

  55. Oilspill says:

    Adam Wu,

    Really many people expressing their opinion are doing it based in fancies rather than actually knowing the game. Fancies are fairly general and an individual number is given based on the play of the collective.

  56. Professor Q says:

    who:
    So Buff extends with Winnipeg. Good for them. Didn’t think they’d do it but I like the 5 year term. I think the Oilers would have offered him that contract in the summer. I do think they need to cheapen their d though.
    OK this should stir the pot. Hall and Davidson to Winnipeg for Myers and Ehlers. Then if Winnipeg doesn’t do Trouba for Hamonic I would offer Eberle and Fayne(Edmonton retains some salary) for Hamonic and Bailey or Lee.
    There I’ve created a team with no wingers but I sure nuff fixed the defense. Line combos are maybe

    Ehlers Drai Kassor Ehlers Nuge Drai
    Poo Mac Yakor PooMac Kas
    Bailey Nuge PakorYak Bailey Pak

    Good chance they will get a premium winger in the draft to slot in here somewhere

    SekMyers
    KlefHamonic
    Nur Gryba
    ReinClen

    DONE What’s next

    These are terrible ideas.

  57. Professor Q says:

    GCW_69: If that’s directed at me, I am not.I just think the roster has one untouchable player and if the Oilers need to cash in Hall to get a legit 1D, so be it.This cannot continue.

    And even if you somehow get that 1D, you still lose the trade because you’re trading away an elite LW in Hall (the #2 or #3 LW in the entire NHL) with no one to replace him.

    One hole patched by the creation of another.

  58. Oilspill says:

    OF17: If Trouba gets to July 1 without being traded or re-signed, I think that’s a great idea. $5.475 million would be enough to give Winnipeg troubles while also being reasonable for the Oilers. The ole Brian Burke “use the offer sheet as a trade negotiation tactic only” might work better though.

    Problem is owners have an unwritten agreement to not use offer sheets..takes power away from players.

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