ONCE UPON A TIME IN THE WEST

The number one priority for Oilers management in the next two weeks? Unload as many contracts as possible, enter the offseason with fewer contracts containing 2016-17 commitments. Peter Chiarelli may have to make some difficult decisions between now and February 29th—he needs to keep the jacks and kings (if they go, it will be summer) and flush the sixes and sevens and nines.

TRADE DEADLINE ASSETS IN PLAY

  • RW Teddy Purcell—He is gone, suspect we will see a second or third-round pick (or a legit prospect).
  • D Justin Schultz—He is gone if they can find a taker, I think they will. Third round or prospect of similar value.
  • D Mark Fayne—A bit tricky, for two reasons. He is helping now, so the Oilers could use him for the first 60 games next year and shop him at the deadline. Call it righty blue insurance. Return? Second-round pick if the Oilers retain salary (defensemen are always worth more at the deadline).
  • D Eric Gryba—I think they will sign him unless a team offers up full value (and remember this is the deadline). I have no idea what he would fetch in trade, only that Mark Fayne would be a better addition for a contending team. I believe that.
  • L Lauri Korpikoski—Perhaps Chiarelli can save Todd McLellan from himself. Korpikoski is a black hole in possession no matter how you slice it and he is not terribly helpful offensively. I don’t think anyone will touch him and do think he is a buyout candidate this summer. He is 41.1 Corsi for percentage at 5×5, with only Jarret Stoll and John Mitchell posting a worse number among those playing 500 or more 5×5 minutes in 2015-16. If he can trade Korpikoski, Chiarelli is a mad genius.
  • F Matt Hendricks—Chiarelli is unlikely to trade Hendricks, but there is always a chance an offer changes his mind. I recall someone mentioning there was significant interest last deadline.

We can assume that Purcell and Schultz are dealt, but it is unclear if any of the other men will find their way to new cities and the playoffs. At this point, with Jordan Eberle scoring and Ryan-Nugent Hopkins injured, it is probably reasonable to assume a big name isn’t going to be traded at the deadline.

  • Bruce Garrioch: Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli could be busy. He’s got a couple of assets that teams are sniffing around on with winger Teddy Purcell and blue-liner Justin Schultz. There’s interest in both players and it would be no surprise if they were moved. Lots of teams are looking for help on the blue line and Chiarelli has extra players there to make a deal. Source

I mention this because a few people have posted to me about Schultz having no value. I think the market may be stronger than many think—defensemen rule at the deadline—and I will list Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Philadelphia as possible destinations.

CONDORS PUSHING

As trades occur, we should see Condors flying north—perhaps to stay. If Peter Chiarelli is looking for next year solutions, Bakersfield has some things to offer.

  • C-L Jujhar Khaira: He is 6, 4-6-10 in February and ripping it up. I watched the Reign game this weekend, and he is on a fantastic run. Physical, creative and effective. He is pushing the management for a recall.
  • C-R Andrew Miller: He is 6, 2-7-9 in February, and with the Oilers struggling up the middle, Miller may get a call in the next while.
  • R Tyler Pitlick: He is back and helping, when healthy Pitlick does a lot of productive things. I believe McLellan may want to see him before they make a decision in the summer.
  • L Rob Klinkhammer: Since going to the farm, Klinkhammer is 9, 8-2-10. Whatever he isn’t at the NHL level, seems obvious he is capable of playing beyond the world’s best minor league.
  • F Anton Slepyshev: He is 3-1-4 in his last five games, and there are shifts in Bakersfield where he looks dominant. I don’t know if he fits on next year’s team, but there are NHL games to play this season and he may get into some of them.
  • L Luke Gazdic: He is 6, 1-2-3 on the farm since being sent out. He may never play in the NHL again, but then again we could see him back up after the deadline. Played his best hockey this season.
  • D Jordan Oesterle: Once Schultz is traded, he is probably the No. 1 option for recall among the puck movers. The man can fly.
  • D Griffin Reinhart: If Edmonton unloads Fayne, suspect GR gets the call—and he may anyway. The Oilers have invested in him, and showcase games in the NHL down the stretch may improve trade value in the summer.

Let’s assume Edmonton trades only Teddy Purcell and Justin Schultz at the deadline, while also buying out Andrew Ference and Lauri Korpikoski. If they do those two things, the NHL roster enters summer like this:

  • Benoit Pouliot—Connor McDavid—Jordan Eberle
  • Taylor Hall—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Leon Draisaitl
  • Zack Kassian—Mark Letestu—Nail Yakupov
  • Matt Hendricks—Anton Lander—Iiro Pakarinen
  • Andrej Sekera—Mark Fayne
  • Oscar Klefbom—Brandon Davidson
  • Darnell Nurse—Adam Clendening
  • Cam Talbot—Laurent Brossoit

Plenty of work to do, I would love to see those top two lines for 82 games, doubt we ever get that chance now—someone is moving in order to make room for a bigger forward. Also, the bottom six is a mess, and defense still needs some major help. If we assume PC makes three major moves:

  • Adds a bona fide RD
  • Adds a PF with skill
  • Adds a 3C

What might it look like? Well, in order to get, you must give. So for our discussions today, I will assume Edmonton trades the lottery pick and one of the top six forwards listed above:

  • Benoit Pouliot—Connor McDavid—Nail Yakupov
  • Taylor Hall—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Leon Draisaitl
  • Anders Lee—Frans Nielsen—Zack Kassian
  • Matt Hendricks—Mark Letestu—Iiro Pakarinen
  • Andrej Sekera—Mark Fayne
  • Oscar Klefbom—Travis Hamonic
  • Brandon Davidson—Jason Demers
  • Cam Talbot—Laurent Brossoit

I chose Eberle, it could be Nuge instead, but the Oilers probably cannot add everything they need with only the lottery pick (I am assuming No. 4 or later on Oilers selection). I wish they could, can’t see it (by the way, Nielsen is a free agent, but the Oilers could trade for his rights at the draft and sign him). Oilers add Hamonic, Nielsen and Anders Lee—plus NYI 1st round pick, currently No. 20— and another substantial piece (Ryan Strome, Michael Dal Colle, Ilya Sorokin), for Eberle and the first-round selection. Thoughts?

tomei4

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Something of a fluid show, it feels like the Eskimos are about to do something and I have a few NHL draft guests I have reached out to, so stay tuned. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. We will talk about the deadline and the Washington Capitals.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, The SuperFan and Copper & Blue. What do the Oilers need to add over the summer?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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175 Responses to "ONCE UPON A TIME IN THE WEST"

  1. Woodguy says:

    I think you have it surrounded pretty good LT.

    Much like what we have been doing since December 2009, we wait.

  2. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great write-up LT! LT says: “Well, in order to get, you must give” Indeed, its happening – book it!

  3. Psyche says:

    I wanted to share this article from Renaud Lavoie based on an interview with Peter Chiarelli, I was lazy and used Google translate:

    http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/02/14/maintenir-le-cap

    Keep the Direction

    Incredible as it may seem, the Oilers could still finish last in the Western Conference for the fourth time in the last six seasons.

    The new general manager of the Edmonton formation, Peter Chiarelli, admits that expectations were different this season; but no way for him to deviate from his plan. “What I wanted when I took the reins of this team was to see a group that improves and progresses, said former Chief Bruins. Are we still on the way we wanted to follow? Absolutely.”

    Yet it would be easy for Peter Chiarelli to watch the whole situation and decide to clean. There are few courses that have experienced many difficulties in recent years with a group of talented attackers. But now, he still wants to give time. “I’d give myself a full season, but a season and a half, before taking decisions, because I want to know my players better. At the same time, I have to be patient because I regret to miss an opportunity to make a deal with players who are not yet available. It takes patience and recognize that everything is about timing. ”

    Let’s face the Oilers have very good strikers. Taylor Hall, Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Leon Draisaitl were choices early rounds in recent years and the strategy of the previous management was to win thanks to the attack and not through defensive. Today, it is clear that this strategy is not good and this is why we must expect that there will be changes to the blue line and it starts with Justin Schultz should be exchanged for by the end of the month. “Our problem is with five against five. To be successful in this area, we must have the right people, be prepared and pay attention to detail. I’ll have to find one or two players that improves on that. It’s nothing sexy, but it’s a priority. ”

    The other problem Oilers is that they have very little training days, which is often the case with the formations operating in the Western Conference. “When I think of all the time I had with Claude Julien prepare training with him. This is how the teams are improving. It’s a luxury we do not have now. ”

    The future lies in McDavid

    The last thing Peter Chiarelli wants to do is put pressure on McDavid, his star player. Because even if he recognizes the talent of this young player, it is still unclear whether his career will be as prolific we expected. “I sometimes look resumption of games he is able to do and we’re talking about a player who has a special talent. He makes big plays and often at a very high speed. My question is how it will react to all the attention that is around him. He is very mature for his age, 19, and he has great respect for veterans. It’s a good teammate and someone who has the taste of winning. He wants to constantly improve. It makes me think of Patrice Bergeron and Zdeno Chara who always tried to push their limits. ”

    If the Oilers finish in last place this season, it would be surprising if it occurs again in the coming years. As Peter Chiarelli, with so much talent, things can change quickly. If only the team had at least one prominent defender.

    PURCELL BE EXCHANGED

    The Oilers have thought about the idea of ​​granting a contract extension with striker Teddy Purcell; but that the chances of the team to make the playoffs are slim, it is likely that it will be exchanged within two weeks. The Blackhawks are among the teams that have shown an interest in his place. In terms of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he will not be traded before the trade deadline. It is not on the market today, but we’ll see if Peter Chiarelli will sacrifice a young striker this summer to improve its porous defence.

  4. Aitch says:

    It seems that a lot of our off-season solutions are tied to the Isles. First Hamonic via trade, then talk of Okposo via free agency. Now, another bigger, trade idea for a substantial package. Given that Snow has proven to be shrewder than many gave him credit for a few years ago, it might be best not to always keep shopping in the Isles aisle. After all, you yourself have mentioned that Chia overpaid for Reinhart last summer.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Smart Oilers twitter follow @NateInVegas pointed me in the direction of this Renaud Lavoie interview with Chiarelli:

    http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/02/14/maintenir-le-cap

    Its in French, but the Google translate is surprisingly good.

    Hope you don’t mind the wall of text LT:

    Incredible as it may seem, the Oilers could still finish last in the Western Conference for the fourth time in the last six seasons.

    The new general manager of the Edmonton formation, Peter Chiarelli, admits that expectations were different this season; but no way for him to deviate from his plan. “What I wanted when I took the reins of this team was to see a group that improves and progresses, said former Chief Bruins. Are we still on the way we wanted to follow? Absolutely.”

    Yet it would be easy for Peter Chiarelli to watch the whole situation and decide to clean. There are few courses that have experienced many difficulties in recent years with a group of talented attackers. But now, he still wants to give time. “I’d give myself a full season, but a season and a half, before taking decisions, because I want to know my players better. At the same time, I have to be patient because I regret to miss an opportunity to make a deal with players who are not yet available. It takes patience and recognize that everything is about timing. ”

    Great challenges

    Let’s face the Oilers have very good strikers. Taylor Hall, Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and leon draisaitl were choices early rounds in recent years and the strategy of the previous management was to win thanks to the attack and not through defensive. Today, it is clear that this strategy is not good and this is why we must expect that there will be changes to the blue line and it starts with Justin Schultz should be exchanged for by the end of the month. “Our problem is with five against five. To be successful in this area, we must have the right people, be prepared and pay attention to detail. I’ll have to find one or two players that improves on that. It’s nothing sexy, but it’s a priority. ”

    The other problem Oilers is that they have very little training days, which is often the case with the formations operating in the Western Conference. “When I think of all the time I had with Claude Julien prepare training with him. This is how the teams are improving. It’s a luxury we do not have now. ”

    The future lies in McDavid

    The last thing Peter Chiarelli wants to do is put pressure on McDavid, his star player. Because even if he recognizes the talent of this young player, it is still unclear whether his career will be as prolific we expected. “I sometimes look resumption of games he is able to do and we’re talking about a player who has a special talent. He makes big plays and often at a very high speed. My question is how it will react to all the attention that is around him. He is very mature for his age, 19, and he has great respect for veterans. It’s a good teammate and someone who has the taste of winning. He wants to constantly improve. It makes me think of Patrice Bergeron and Zdeno Chara who always tried to push their limits. ”

    If the Oilers finish in last place this season, it would be surprising if it occurs again in the coming years. As Peter Chiarelli, with so much talent, things can change quickly. If only the team had at least one prominent defender.

    PURCELL BE EXCHANGED
    The Oilers have thought about the idea of ​​granting a contract extension with striker Teddy Purcell; but that the chances of the team to make the playoffs are slim, it is likely that it will be exchanged within two weeks. The Blackhawks are among the teams that have shown an interest in his place. In terms of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he will not be traded before the trade deadline. It is not on the market today, but we’ll see if Peter Chiarelli will sacrifice a young striker this summer to improve its porous defense.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Psyche,

    GET OFF MY LAWN!!!!

  7. Soup Fascist says:

    I am wondering what our young fair-haired mensch would think about moving Ebs?

    I would think Conner would have some angst in seeing a guy who has scored a GAG on his right side since his return sent down the road. Small sample size / gotta give up something to get something / inmates running the asylum and all that, but I can see how CMD could see that as bit of a kick in the ‘nads. Pissing off the “Franchise” would seem like a risky move.

    RNH is a key piece of this team moving forward. I still look at moving the 2016 first if it gets you a first pairing RHD if the value is right.

  8. Centre of attention says:

    So if the cap actually drops 4 million next season,

    what kind of poaching could Chiarelli do next fall? He should have plenty of cap room if he plays his cards right.

  9. Cozzy says:

    As always a great article LT!!!!

    Believe someone has to go but dont like the idea of trading RNH or Eberle. Chemistry the seems to have with McDavid is growing on me.

    They are handling Yak badly and hope that once Teddy gets moved they will give him some better minutes.

    Have to think our 1st round pick will be in play, our stsem is void of some prospects so do like the idea of trade our ist rounder with a player ( RWH / Ebs/Yak) for a player + a later 1st round pick. Clear some contracts and get this club turned

  10. Psyche says:

    Woodguy,

    Rings the bell, runs away, trips over shovel, slips on ice, flips the bird to Woodguy, and manages to fade into the falling snow…never spilling any of my beer. 🙂

    You’re welcome!

  11. Woodguy says:

    Interesting things I take away from the Lavoie piece:

    “Our problem is with five against five. To be successful in this area, we must have the right people, be prepared and pay attention to detail. I’ll have to find one or two players that improves on that. It’s nothing sexy, but it’s a priority. ”

    Let’s have a look at how EDM fares vs the rest of the league in 5v5 and then the players.

    NOTE: I will probably do this via CF%, GF% and HDSC% as they are tell slightly different stories and the Oilers seem to value whatever internal metric mirrors HDSC% as their roster decisions seem to mirror those results.

    5v5 GF% Teams
    Washington 58.7
    NY Rangers 58.6
    Florida 54.5
    St. Louis 52.8
    Dallas 52.8
    Detroit 52.6
    NY Islanders 51.5
    Pittsburgh 51.5
    Los Angeles 51.5
    Minnesota 51.2
    Tampa Bay 51.1
    Boston 51.1
    Winnipeg 51.1
    San Jose 51.1
    Philadelphia 50
    Chicago 49.7
    Nashville 49.7
    Montreal 49.5
    Vancouver 49.1
    New Jersey 48.3
    Ottawa 48
    Colorado 48
    Carolina 47.7
    Calgary 47.4
    Arizona 47
    Columbus 46.9
    Toronto 46.1
    Anaheim 46.1
    Edmonton 43.9
    Buffalo 42.8

    Well he’s right in that they are terrible in that regard. Spotty goalering for a big chunk of the year hurts this stat for sure, but its not all of it.

    Let’s break it down to GF/60 and GA/60

    5v5 GF/60

    Washington 2.65
    NY Rangers 2.55
    Dallas 2.52
    Boston 2.49
    Florida 2.32
    NY Islanders 2.3
    Calgary 2.25
    San Jose 2.23
    Montreal 2.16
    Columbus 2.14
    Winnipeg 2.13
    Ottawa 2.12
    Tampa Bay 2.06
    Arizona 2.05
    Detroit 2.04
    Pittsburgh 2.04
    Edmonton 2.03
    St. Louis 2.03
    Colorado 2.02
    Nashville 2.01
    Carolina 2
    Los Angeles 2
    Minnesota 1.97
    Toronto 1.95
    Chicago 1.93
    Vancouver 1.9
    Philadelphia 1.82
    Anaheim 1.8
    Buffalo 1.79
    New Jersey 1.56

    17th isn’t awful, but its not good either. Not when they are supposed to be “the high flying Oilers”

    Injuries have impacted this for sure this year.

    GA/60
    New Jersey 1.67
    NY Rangers 1.8
    St. Louis 1.81
    Philadelphia 1.82
    Detroit 1.83
    Washington 1.87
    Minnesota 1.88
    Los Angeles 1.88
    Pittsburgh 1.92
    Florida 1.93
    Chicago 1.95
    Tampa Bay 1.97
    Vancouver 1.97
    Nashville 2.03
    Winnipeg 2.04
    Anaheim 2.1
    San Jose 2.14
    NY Islanders 2.16
    Colorado 2.19
    Carolina 2.19
    Montreal 2.21
    Dallas 2.25
    Toronto 2.28
    Ottawa 2.3
    Arizona 2.31
    Boston 2.38
    Buffalo 2.39
    Columbus 2.43
    Calgary 2.5
    Edmonton 2.60

    Well that’s as ugly as your Great Aunt’s mustache. Certainly some work to do.

    Let’s look at the players:

    5v5 GF%
    HENDRICKS, MATT 52.4
    DRAISAITL, LEON 52.3
    HALL, TAYLOR 51.2
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 48.7
    MCDAVID, CONNOR 48.5
    PURCELL, TEDDY 47.8
    GRYBA, ERIC 47.3
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 46
    FAYNE, MARK 45.8
    POULIOT, BENOIT 45.8
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 45
    NURSE, DARNELL 43.8
    YAKUPOV, NAIL 42.4
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 42.1
    EBERLE, JORDAN 41.8
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 41.7
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 40.7
    PAKARINEN, IIRO 40
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI 37
    LETESTU, MARK 34.3
    LANDER, ANTON 28

    GF/60
    MCDAVID, CONNOR 3.57
    DRAISAITL, LEON 2.91
    HALL, TAYLOR 2.74
    POULIOT, BENOIT 2.57
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 2.5
    PURCELL, TEDDY 2.48
    NURSE, DARNELL 2.29
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 2.19
    EBERLE, JORDAN 2.14
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 2.13
    FAYNE, MARK 2.05
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 2
    YAKUPOV, NAIL 2
    GRYBA, ERIC 1.94
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 1.9
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 1.86
    HENDRICKS, MATT 1.32
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI 1.2
    PAKARINEN, IIRO 1.19
    LETESTU, MARK 1.13
    LANDER, ANTON 0.97

    GA/60
    HENDRICKS, MATT 1.2
    PAKARINEN, IIRO 1.78
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 1.96
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI 2.04
    LETESTU, MARK 2.16
    GRYBA, ERIC 2.16
    FAYNE, MARK 2.42
    LANDER, ANTON 2.5
    HALL, TAYLOR 2.61
    DRAISAITL, LEON 2.65
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 2.65
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 2.67
    YAKUPOV, NAIL 2.71
    PURCELL, TEDDY 2.71
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 2.92
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 2.92
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 2.93
    NURSE, DARNELL 2.94
    EBERLE, JORDAN 2.98
    POULIOT, BENOIT 3.05
    MCDAVID, CONNOR 3.79

    Remember that this stat ALWAYS favours the bottom 6 and 3rd pair Dmen as they play the most against players who are not in the NHL because they can score.

    Imma gonna just leave this here to riff off as the wall of text is big enough

  12. Psyche says:

    Has anyone read or heard what the ETA is for Nuge’s return?

    If we are impatient/frustrated waiting for the first shoe to drop trade-wise, imagine how Chiarelli feels. I’m certain he is eager to put more of his stamp on this roster.

  13. Walter Sobchak says:

    It’s so difficult to determine who’s going and speculation on what might happen.

    I know this, Chris Kreider would be a major steal.

    I have know idea if an offer sheet would work, if it’s feasible or the Oilers could fit him into the line up.

    I was a fan from before during NY playoffs, however, I was at the NYR game vs the Oilers and he was the most noticing Ranger by a country mile.

    Great power forward, great speed and a total prick to play against and brings some offence.

    Just my two cents.

  14. Snowman says:

    Woodguy,

    That wall of text does Anton Lander no favors. Nuge came out a little better than I was expecting. Mcdavid is the living breathing personification of high event hockey (which is fine because his events for are pretty effective so far).

    We should keep Brandon Davidson. No doubt about it. Sign the man.

  15. LoDog says:

    I was all dont be Eberle don’t be Eberle but you chose Eberle. ☺

    Eberle has shown what a waste yak was with McDavid.

    The old anyone can put up points with Gretzky but a real talent will scorch the league.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Posting more data so people can riff off it it.

    High Danger Scoring Chances:

    Teams HDSC%

    S.J 57.8
    NSH 55.3
    L.A 54
    CBJ 53.8
    PIT 53.4
    DAL 52.6
    T.B 52.5
    TOR 52.5
    ANA 52.4
    MTL 51.4
    CAR 51.4
    PHI 50.8
    WSH 50.4
    MIN 50
    NYI 49.7
    BUF 49.7
    DET 49.4
    STL 49.4
    CHI 49.2
    ARI 48.9
    CGY 48.4
    WPG 48.3
    BOS 48.1
    N.J 48.1
    FLA 47.4
    OTT 46.5
    NYR 46
    EDM 45.4
    VAN 43.7
    COL 43

    Edmonton sucking the hind bananna

    HDSCFor/60
    DAL 13.2
    S.J 13.2
    TOR 12.2
    PIT 12
    CBJ 11.9
    L.A 11.7
    PHI 11.7
    T.B 11.5
    CAR 11.4
    NYI 11.4
    ANA 11.1
    MTL 11.1
    CGY 10.7
    CHI 10.6
    WSH 10.6
    WPG 10.5
    BOS 10.4
    ARI 10.4
    STL 10.3
    NSH 10.2
    DET 10.2
    EDM 10.1
    MIN 10.1
    BUF 10.1
    OTT 9.7
    NYR 9.5
    VAN 9.3
    COL 9.1
    FLA 8.8
    N.J 8.4

    Oilers 22nd

    HDSCAgainst/60
    EDM 12.1
    COL 12.1
    VAN 12
    DAL 11.9
    NYI 11.6
    PHI 11.4
    CGY 11.4
    WPG 11.2
    BOS 11.2
    NYR 11.2
    OTT 11.2
    CHI 11
    TOR 11
    ARI 10.9
    CAR 10.8
    STL 10.6
    MTL 10.5
    WSH 10.5
    T.B 10.4
    PIT 10.4
    DET 10.4
    BUF 10.2
    CBJ 10.2
    ANA 10.1
    MIN 10.1
    L.A 10
    FLA 9.8
    S.J 9.6
    N.J 9
    NSH 8.3

    EDM is DFL. Yeesh.

    Don’t worry, its all a part of Kev’s Master Plan and its on target.

    Players: HDSCF%

    Connor.McDavid 56.41
    Brandon.Davidson 51.02
    Leon.Draisaitl 50.37
    Taylor.Hall 50.29
    Oscar.Klefbom 50
    Jordan.Eberle 47.84
    Andrej.Sekera 47.32
    Teddy.Purcell 46.39
    Benoit.Pouliot 45.96
    Justin.Schultz 45.53
    Eric.Gryba 45.03
    Nail.Yakupov 44.67
    Mark.Letestu 44.29
    Mark.Fayne 43.48
    Matt.Hendricks 43.09
    Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins 42.59
    Griffin.Reinhart 40.54
    Anton.Lander 40.26
    Darnell.Nurse 39.44
    Iiro.Pakarinen 38.98
    Lauri.Korpikoski 36.61

    3 rookies at the top. Amazing.

    Our boy RNH not looking good here.

    HDSCFor/60
    Connor.McDavid 14.57
    Jordan.Eberle 12.45
    Taylor.Hall 11.91
    Leon.Draisaitl 11.82
    Justin.Schultz 10.88
    Eric.Gryba 10.8
    Andrej.Sekera 10.56
    Teddy.Purcell 10.55
    Benoit.Pouliot 10.28
    Oscar.Klefbom 10.12
    Brandon.Davidson 9.78
    Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins 9.65
    Nail.Yakupov 9.51
    Matt.Hendricks 9.33
    Darnell.Nurse 9.16
    Mark.Fayne 9.14
    Mark.Letestu 9.09
    Anton.Lander 8.44
    Griffin.Reinhart 8.09
    Lauri.Korpikoski 7.96
    Iiro.Pakarinen 6.91

    Nothing too earth shattering here except RNH again being lower than expected.

    HDSCAgainst/60

    Brandon.Davidson 9.39
    Oscar.Klefbom 10.12
    Iiro.Pakarinen 10.82
    Connor.McDavid 11.26
    Mark.Letestu 11.43
    Leon.Draisaitl 11.64
    Andrej.Sekera 11.76
    Taylor.Hall 11.77
    Nail.Yakupov 11.78
    Griffin.Reinhart 11.86
    Mark.Fayne 11.88
    Benoit.Pouliot 12.08
    Teddy.Purcell 12.19
    Matt.Hendricks 12.32
    Anton.Lander 12.52
    Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins 13.01
    Justin.Schultz 13.01
    Eric.Gryba 13.18
    Jordan.Eberle 13.57
    Lauri.Korpikoski 13.77
    Darnell.Nurse 14.07

    Lots to digest here.

    Gryba, Korpse especially, but many bottom 6ers shouldn’t be the worst at this given their comp.

    Nurse needing to play in the AHL shows up.

    Lots of bad here.

    Davidson is awesome but you expect a good 3rd pairing D to be at or near the top.

    Klef being 2nd with his toughest comp is phenomenal and man do the Oilers miss him.

  17. Snowman says:

    Woodguy,

    The Nuge item probably has a lot to do with the second half where he seemed to be struggling. When you look at G’s dashboard for the Oilers Nuge has a definitive down tick about midway through his season.

    Wonder what the splits are. I would guess he comes out looking like roses the first 25 games and looking like a donkey the last 20 or whatever it was before he went down. Suspect reality is somewhere between.

  18. Norman Greenbaum says:

    LoDog:
    I was all dont be Eberledon’t be Eberlebut you chose Eberle.

    Eberle has shown what a waste yak was with McDavid.

    The old anyone can put up points with Gretzky but a real talent will scorch the league.

    LT has approached the argument from the right direction. I don’t think he likes the idea of trading Eberle any more than the Eberle fans here, but his argument is logical. Trade value high from a position of relative depth.

    What aren’t logical are the arguments to trade Eberle that run along the lines of ‘take away McDavid or Nuge and Eberle can’t produce’ or the even worse one I read two days ago that stated “I’d like to see Eberle play bottom six. I bet he wouldn’t drive the play.”

    I’m torn. Part of me wants the D fixed, like, yesterday. The other part wants Ebs and McDavid to stay together for the kids, while I watch the league burn.

  19. eidy says:

    Good read LT. And thanks for the links Psyche/woodguy

    I have seen lots of condors games and have been really impressed with Jujhar, Pitlick and Sleppy. Would love to see sleppy get winquist on his line when he gets back from injury. As for D, Oesterle is the class down there. Lellagia does some nice things as well. Simpson does lots of little subtle things and appears to be heading along the Davidson trajectory. Musil is solid, but skating is the issue. Reinhardt has been fine, but he doesn’t stand out much. Hopefully there is more subtlety to his game that I just can’t see. Klinkhammer has been quite good down there and if I was GM, I would try to make him the ahl vetreran rather than Hamilton.

    I was comparing year over year as it seems that there hasn’t been any improvement at times. However, the oilers took until game 70 to hit the 50 point mark last year….. god what an awful team. Also the entire bottom 1/4 of the league was horrible last year. With this number of points the oilers would have been 25th in the league. 15 points clear of buffalo. Shame on Buffalo for the season/tank job they had. To end with the oilers getting McDavid is justice. People say that they didn’t deserve him, but I disagree. The oilers weren’t one of the teams trying to tank for him….. they were just totally inept. That doesn’t make me feel better about the voices coming from inside the house.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Snowman,

    When you look at G’s dashboard for the Oilers Nuge has a definitive down tick about midway through his season.

    I think that’s also when Nurse starting playing with Sekera vs the toughs and that didn’t end well.

    Check this out:

    93-2-25 on the ice together 118min
    GF% 23%
    CF% 39.1%

    Pure garbage.

    Now 93-2 without 25
    126min
    GF 33.3%
    CF 48.6%

    Goals still awful (even with a 10% jump) and a lot of that is the early goalering, but the CF% jumping almost 10% is very telling.

    Putting a rookie on the top pair to drown effects everyone he plays with. Who knew??

  21. PhrankLee says:

    I do worry about being able to keep Davidson.

    My worry is he is just such a great sweetener chip when you want to get a top 3 D out of
    Yakupov, for example.

    Hopefully we keep him and groom him and love and curse till he retires.

    But I see him being the exact thing it takes when when someone tries to dig in their heels in a trade.

    Would hate to see him traded this way.

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Nuge’s season went hard south right around the time he missed that one game with illness. He came back but was a shadow of himself.

    The team was very tightlipped about it but I am concerned it is (or hopefully, was) an underlying health issue. Mono? or …?

    Maybe it’s just me looking for excuses for him, but whatever the reason is he took a massive step backwards in mid November from everything we’d seen the previous 2+ seasons.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Re: Eberle. I used him as an example but it is going to hurt losing any of these guys. My favorite is Nuge, that may be why I didn’t send him away in this model. Someone else can, I will be one sad trombone that day.

  24. russ99 says:

    I’d like to see Fayne moved. For his salary, we can do a lot better this summer, and teams will want a guy like him for the playoff push.

    It would be great for the Oilers if the league/NHLPA can give some clarity on the cap this summer, since it’s either staying the same, going up a little or going down substantially depending on who you talk to, and this could get in the way of deals getting done.

    I’m in favor everyone on LT’s list being moved so Chia can move some heavy rocks this summer.

    As for the Bakersfield bunch I’d be very surprised if Pitlick and Gazdic gets QOs this summer, and Klinkhammer, Miller, Hamilton and Hunt are gone as UFAs.

    Gonna be lots of room on the 50 man this summer…

  25. jake70 says:

    Read that linked french article before reading the translated version, looking for some nuanced stuff (bilingual politicians do this from time to time depending on their audience). Pretty straight forward the translation was though.

  26. PunjabiOil says:

    If the Oilers finish 30th, given the fact each of the top 3 picks is determined by lottery, i imagine there will would be a greater than 50% chance they end up drafting 4th overall.

    Are the precise odds out there somewhere?

  27. Soup Fascist says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Nuge’s season went hard south right around the time he missed that one game with illness. He came back but was a shadow of himself.

    The team was very tightlipped about it but I am concerned it is (or hopefully, was) an underlying health issue. Mono? or …?

    Maybe it’s just me looking for excuses for him, but whatever the reason is he took a massive step backwards in mid November from everything we’d seen the previous 2+ seasons.

    Doubt it would be Mono given the issue with potential internal injury caused by enlarged spleen … blah, blah, blah.

    But there certainly was a step change in terms of speed and jump. There were also some mental lapses that just didn’t seem to be in his game a lot previously. You are correct though, his play after the brief illness dropped off noticeably. “Lethargic” was the way I saw it.

    Very similar to the way Drai’s game headed south over the past month – though that was far more predictable, given his workload, youth, pro schedule and lack of protection in the batting order. We need “old” Nugey back to start next year.

  28. Snowman says:

    Is there a place to get some game by game possession and scoring chance stats that you can filter home and away games?

  29. Fog of Warts says:

    Putting a rookie on the top pair to drown effects everyone he plays with. Who knew?

    Yes, but it’s quite possible that half the effect is an accounting fiction, à la the old Band Aid debate.

    No matter how you bring him up, he’s going to make his fair quota of blunders defending against elite opposition. Now certainly one can stretch out the apprenticeship and somewhat reduce this total quota, but even this doesn’t come for free—you’re paying an unspecified different player more to function at the higher level you’re now withholding from your young gun. Far too often people who advocate slow and steady are playing with house money and not even realizing this.

    When you have a guy like Nurse with excellent tools, he can end up learning to play the wrong way against lesser competition, with a total reliance on tools, and not nearly enough reliance on judgement and form. Just like how smart people never learn study habits until you drown them.

    People begin to mock this as axiomatic when it’s actually a deep empirical question that even the “advanced” statistics haven’t begun to scratch.

  30. Water Fire says:

    McLellan says it often, defensive play drives offence. The Oilers main problem is GA. Chiarelli seems to have addressed what I see as the main culprit beyond goalering – mistakes.

  31. Soup Fascist says:

    What REALLY messed up the ability to drive up value and then trading it for needed pieces, was injury.

    Certainly Yak playing with CMD, while Eberle was on the shelf, could have given Yak some confidence and allowed him to put up some points.

    Thanks to Brandon Manning and whoever the friggin’ Klutz in the zebra suit that took out Yak was – that opportunity was smashed and mangled in short order.

  32. jp says:

    Woodguy,

    Based on the HDSCF/A McDavid looks really unlucky on the GA/60.

  33. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Soup Fascist,

    I think the answer is obvious……Nuge has a lack of moral fibre. Obviously he is insanely jealous of Drai and McD. You can tell by his body language. I did hear he moved his locker to Hemsky’s old one. His number is 93. Hemmer’s was 83. That’s only ten away. Coincidence?

    I have absolutely no proof, so therefore it is true until someone disproves it.

    🙂

  34. Soup Fascist says:

    Norman Greenbaum:
    Soup Fascist,

    I think the answer is obvious……Nuge has a lack of moral fibre.Obviously he is insanely jealous of Drai and McD.You can tell by his body language.I did hear he moved his locker to Hemsky’s old one.His number is 93.Hemmer’s was 83.That’s only ten away.Coincidence?

    I have absolutely no proof, so therefore it is true until someone disproves it.

    I think it is a fibre issue – but not moral.

    More Müslix and less Captain Crunch for ‘Lil Nuge and things should turn around nicely.

  35. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    Could you do the same for the teams of potential targets? NY I. ,StL, Ana, NJD?

  36. russ99 says:

    Water Fire:
    McLellan says it often, defensive play drives offence. The Oilers main problem is GA. Chiarelli seems to have addressed what I see as the main culprit beyond goalering – mistakes.

    Agree, but’s all 5 players, not just the defensemen.

  37. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Walter Sobchak:
    It’s so difficult to determine who’s going and speculation on what might happen.

    I know this, Chris Kreider would be a major steal.

    I have know idea if an offer sheet would work, if it’s feasible or the Oilers could fit him into the line up.

    I was a fan from before during NY playoffs, however,I was at the NYR game vs the Oilers and he was the most noticing Ranger by a country mile.

    Great power forward, great speed and a total prick to play against and brings some offence.

    Just my two cents.

    Kreider and Charlie Coyle are two of the best young power forwards in the game. It’s crazy how many power forwards are from the USA.

  38. flyfish1168 says:

    Norman Greenbaum: LT has approached the argument from the right direction.I don’t think he likes the idea of trading Eberle any more than the Eberle fans here, but his argument is logical.Trade value high from a position of relative depth.

    What aren’t logical are the arguments to trade Eberle that run along the lines of ‘take away McDavid or Nuge and Eberle can’t produce’ or the even worse one I read two days ago that stated “I’d like to see Eberle play bottom six.I bet he wouldn’t drive the play.”

    I’m torn. Part of me wants the D fixed, like, yesterday.The other part wants Ebs and McDavid to stay together for the kids, while I watch the league burn.

    You should read some of G work here before commenting

  39. DRFNsuperstar says:

    I am hoping Nuge comes back similar to Connor, gets some rest to bulk up and work on leg strength. Nuge after the illness looked a step behind his normal pace I hope he comes back like a beast, Chiarelli should know what a lack of centre depth can do to a season because it got him fired last year.

    What are they doing with Yak? I really think a team like Montreal is going to unlock him, his old buddy galchenyuk can read off his all-over-the-placeness. Maybe get Mccarron and a pick back.

    One more tangent, why doesn’t Laleggia get more traction on this blog? He is lighting it up in his rookie pro year…at a position he didn’t play in college. Hunt needs to leave next year so Joey Legs can get back on the point. What Tyler Johnston did for small centremen last year gostisbehere is doing it for tiny Dmen this year.

  40. rickithebear says:

    You expect 3rd comp to be up there?
    It is lazy shit like this that you see on tsn.
    I did not spend all these years swimming up the river convincing this crowd about.
    Quality of shots.
    Davidson will be a cheap contract for elite box protection for 2 to 5 years.

  41. G Money says:

    Snow, WG, Bruce, Soup:

    Dashboard from a few days http://i.imgur.com/U8JfE5F.png

    You can see clearly the dropoff after RNH got sick. He was holding his own before he got sick – maybe a little above breakeven, not as good as you’d hope, but certainly decent given he has to face 20+ minutes of the highest grade opposition that TMc can put him out against every night.

    He fell down a hill Corsi-wise, but he fell off a cliff DangerFen wise after that missed day (DangerFen isn’t quite as focused a stat as HDSC is, but IMO reflects the overall game better, and the high sample size on it means it gives valid results much sooner than HDSC, especially for individual players).

    You can also see Drai’s recent falloff pretty clearly as well.

  42. G Money says:

    Snowman,

    War on ice lets you do that.

  43. Pouzar says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 9m9 minutes ago
    #Oilers forward lines at today’s practice: 67-97-14, 4-29-51, 44-55-10 and 28-23-26. @teddypurcell16 absent from the skate.

  44. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    Exactly the same reason Fayne does well with Sekera, he’s very good positionally which prevents quality shots.

    Davidson’s agent is going to look for term but AAV will be in the 2M ballpark.

  45. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Pouzar,

    Teddy going bye bye?

    Big Big opportunity for Lander if these lines stick!

  46. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    If Nuge had the flu that everyone else in Alberta seemed to have in Nov/Dec, it was a doozy. My recovery was weeks, it just hung around leaving me at 75% – stiff, achy, low energy.

    Mind you, treating it with 60 hr work weeks, layoffs and bourbon probably didn’t speed things up.

    Nuge……I hope Chia see’s Bergeron without the elite FO ability……

  47. Jordan says:

    russ99: Agree, but’s all 5 players, not just the defensemen.

    Have you watched what happens on the ice when Schultz is out there?

    When nurse is making rookie mistakes?

    Everyone has to compensate, and it ends up looking like a 5v4, and someone gets a grade-A scoring chance.

    Every game they play, at least twice a game.

    And even more recently, since Klefbom got hurt, and everyone is playing up the lineup.

    I long for a competent defense corps, and not the defense corpse we have now.

  48. Woodguy says:

    jp:
    Woodguy,

    Based on the HDSCF/A McDavid looks really unlucky on the GA/60.

    Agreed.

    Good eye

  49. Pajamah says:

    Teddy P not taking part in morning skate.

    Read into at your own leisure

  50. russ99 says:

    Jordan: Have you watched what happens on the ice when Schultz is out there?

    When nurse is making rookie mistakes?

    Everyone has to compensate, and it ends up looking like a 5v4, and someone gets a grade-A scoring chance.

    Every game they play, at least twice a game.

    And even more recently, since Klefbom got hurt, and everyone is playing up the lineup.

    I long for a competent defense corps, and not the defense corpse we have now.

    Im not making any assumptions to prop up our weak defensemen corps, rather defense is a 5 man job and way too often the forwards either slip up, or are late in coverage and they result in goals against.

    Even if we clear all the deadweight and add 3 veteran defensemen this summer, this will still be an issue. The lack of forwards being in the right place and making the right play is putting undue stress on the defensemen and goalies.

    What I don’t believe is the fancy stat assumption that better movement out of the zone by strictly puck moving defensemen will cure our defensive (and offensive) ails. We still need to do a better job of breaking the opposition cycle and denying space as other teams do to us, and that’s a 5-man job.

  51. Water Fire says:

    russ99: Agree, but’s all 5 players, not just the defensemen.

    You and I seem to be on an island with that.

    My comment came right up after Fog of Warts and seems like it might be a rebuttal of sorts, but I agree with him/her.

    It could explain Schultz’ handling. Way too good for the AHL, struggles in the NHL. Nurse seems to be able to learn might be one little difference. The best place for those players if D is third pairing. NHL comp, parctice coaching but not full bore.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Fog of Warts,

    When you have a guy like Nurse with excellent tools, he can end up learning to play the wrong way against lesser competition, with a total reliance on tools, and not nearly enough reliance on judgement and form. Just like how smart people never learn study habits until you drown them.

    I agree with this, but the level he won’t learn anything against at this time is CHL competition.

    Given the massive amount of data that we have about good Dmen learning in the AHL for 1-2 seasons (especially when they turn pro at 20) suggests that it wouldn’t be the case for Nurse there, but rather enough of a challenge to work on his game.

    I also think that given Nurse’s tools he’s *probably* ok in the NHL at 3rd pair.

    Jon fleshes it out well here: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-despite-appearances-darnell-nurse-is-improving-with-the-oilers

    There is no reason to throw Nurse so far over his head (1st pair) when 3rd pair is enough of a challenge.

    The resulting whirlpool from his vortex of drowning is too strong and can drag good players with him.

    There is also lots of anecdotal evidence of “ruining” a player by playing them too high and too often early in their career, but almost none about “ruining” a player by bringing them along too slowly.

    I’m sure that’s not entirely true because its too tough to quantify, but I think we could agree that 1st pair AHL or 3rd pair NHL is hard enough to keep most young men sharp.

    Yes, but it’s quite possible that half the effect is an accounting fiction, à la the old Band Aid debate.

    When the eye and the data line up as close as it did in the Sekera-Nurse experiment, I think that boat will float.

  53. Gret99zky says:

    Wouldn’t it be nice if Chia can move out Jultz with a better than expected return?

    “Maybe if we think and wish and hope and pray it might come true
    Baby then there wouldn’t be a single thing he couldn’t do…”

    Wouldn’t it be nice.

  54. Mustard Tiger says:

    Is there any chance a team would bite on Purcell and a second for a first?

    Edit: forget that. If our second is 31-35 overall that’s paying way too much to move up to 25-30, which is where that first could likely end up

  55. Derek says:

    I have acquired footage of Oilers management of the past decade trying to acquire real NHL defence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_Nr31Lv6H8

    Kevin Lowe is played by a helpful young man in camo with an interesting hat.

    In the end they come close, but the D man always eludes them.

  56. Pouzar says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Pouzar,

    Teddy going bye bye?

    Big Big opportunity for Lander if these lines stick!

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 5m5 minutes ago
    Teddy Purcell not on ice at Edm practice. Maintenance day. Lander in his spot with Hall and Leon.#EJLive

  57. Woodguy says:

    Evilas:
    Woodguy,

    Could you do the same for the teams of potential targets?NY I. ,StL, Ana, NJD?

    Gimme a few names so I can cut down the verbiage. (i.e. ANA – Vatanen, so I’ll only look at Dmen, etc)

  58. square_wheels says:

    Teddy P getting a maintenance day from Tmac…..according to Matheson

  59. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    You expect 3rd comp to be up there?
    It is lazy shit like this that you see on tsn.
    I did not spend all these years swimming up the river convincing this crowd about.
    Quality of shots.
    Davidson will be a cheap contract for elite box protection for 2 to 5 years.

    When I look at this stuff for all teams, 3rd pairing Dmen *always* do better by these metrics.

    Its not my fault you think Fistric played 1st pairing.

  60. Genjutsu says:

    Soup Fascist: Doubt it would be Mono given the issue with potential internal injury caused by enlarged spleen …blah, blah, blah.

    But there certainly was a step change in terms of speed and jump. There were also some mental lapses that just didn’t seem to be in his game a lot previously.You are correct though, his play after the brief illness dropped off noticeably. “Lethargic” was the way I saw it.

    Very similar to the way Drai’s game headed south over the past month – though that was far more predictable, given his workload, youth, pro schedule and lack of protection in the batting order.We need “old” Nugey back to start next year.

    It is very possible that he had mono and it went undiagnosed. Even if they tested for if false negatives happen. I had multiple false negatives for mono when I was in high school. It wasn’t properly diagnosed until something like 8-9 months after that it was confirmed I had mono and had been testing false negative.

    These things happen, they are rare, but happen all the same.

    Considering the luck the Oilers have had this season with injuries and the freaky Klefbom infection, it would seem to fit in.

    The Gords aren’t with us this year . . . or just really want to see what we do with yet another lottery pick.

  61. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Pouzar: Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty5m5 minutes ago
    Teddy Purcell not on ice at Edm practice. Maintenance day. Lander in his spot with Hall and Leon.#EJLive

    “Bangs head on desk when he realizes this means the Korpse will draw in tomorrow night”

  62. Jordan says:

    russ99,

    Water Fire,

    I agree with both of you – the forwards do need to do a better job of supporting the puck, getting open for outlet passes, completing their defensive responsibilities and busting their asses when the game is in transition – either out of or back into the defensive zone. This is important.

    However, IMO the D need to be doing this ALL the time. With some of the personnel currently patroling the blueline for the Oilers, this does not happen consistently, and contributes to why the Oilers chances against are so frequent.

    This scenario erodes the emphasis on the defensive side of the game. To put this in narrative terms… Imagine Schultz losses a battle/position on his man and it creates a scoring chance. And it’s the 5th time he’s done it this week. There’s no in-game reaction from the coach. How much value do you think the forwards put on their defensive responsibilities, when the D men blow their assignments with no consequences? What message is being sent to all the other players about the value of team defense?

    I think Hall has been a great example of the lack of disciplined, responsible play we want to see this past week. I think it needs to be corrected.

    But I also think that there has been a general lack of disciplined, responsible play from many on this team since the Pronger/Horcoff core was sent packing. I look forward to the exorcism of the current Oilers zeitgeist.

  63. Pouzar says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!: “Bangs head on desk when he realizes this means the Korpse will draw in tomorrow night”

    If they don’t buy out Korpse and replace him with Khaira next year I don’t know what to think.

  64. Water Fire says:

    Jordan:
    russ99,

    Water Fire,

    I agree with both of you – the forwards do need to do a better job of supporting the puck, getting open for outlet passes, completing their defensive responsibilities and busting their asses when the game is in transition – either out of or back into the defensive zone.This is important.

    However, IMO the D need to be doing this ALL the time.With some of the personnel currently patroling the blueline for the Oilers, this does not happen consistently, and contributes to why the Oilers chances against are so frequent.

    This scenario erodes the emphasis on the defensive side of the game.To put this in narrative terms…Imagine Schultz losses a battle/position on his man and it creates a scoring chance.And it’s the 5th time he’s done it this week. There’s no in-game reaction from the coach.How much value do you think the forwards put on their defensive responsibilities, when the D men blow their assignments with no consequences?What message is being sent to all the other players about the value of team defense?

    I think Hall has been a great example of the lack of disciplined, responsible play we want to see this past week.I think it needs to be corrected.

    But I also think that there has been a general lack of disciplined, responsible play from many on this team since the Pronger/Horcoff core was sent packing.I look forward to the exorcism of the current Oilers zeitgeist.

    True enough. I watched som evideo on the Kings break out and the Oilers D are very often faced with no passing options that are decent. Nobody is going to succeed that way. It’s a timing thing with all 5, the defensemen wear being inconsistent in breaking cycles and moving the puck quickly enough so the forwards can try to be heading up ice and close enough.

  65. striker says:

    Pajamah: Teddy P not taking part in morning skate.
    Read into at your own leisure

    Get off thatlawn quick! Old man Pouzar might be back any second!!

  66. VanIsleOil says:

    Derek:
    I have acquired footage of Oilers management of the past decade trying to acquire real NHL defence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_Nr31Lv6H8

    Kevin Lowe is played by a helpful young man in camo with an interesting hat.

    In the end they come close, but the D man always eludes them.

    Hilarious!!! You could just see the smoke coming out of Kevin’s ears as he tries to figure out a way to land his ever elusive #1 dman. Maybe next year…

  67. Pouzar says:

    Manny bein Manny.

    Scott Swenson ‏@ScottSwenson4 1h1 hour ago
    Evander Kane was at the NBA all-star game yesterday and he called Sabres to say he won’t be at practice today. Kane will not play tomorrow.

  68. striker says:

    PunjabiOil: If the Oilers finish 30th, given the fact each of the top 3 picks is determined by lottery, i imagine there will would be a greater than 50% chance they end up drafting 4th overall.
    Are the precise odds out there somewhere?

    48% chance of drafting 4th if they end up in 30th if memory serves

    I have the excel sheet on my desktop for the complete odds of landing at each position depending on where a team finishes but I currently cannot access (driving on the highway).

  69. striker says:

    Pouzar:
    Manny bein Manny.

    Scott Swenson ‏@ScottSwenson41h1 hour ago
    Evander Kane was at the NBA all-star game yesterday and he called Sabres to say he won’t be at practice today. Kane will not play tomorrow.

    This should end well

  70. Oilanderp says:

    Lowetide:
    Re: Eberle. I used him as an example but it is going to hurt losing any of these guys. My favorite is Nuge, that may be why I didn’t send him away in this model. Someone else can, I will be one sad trombone that day.

    I’m ok with trading anyone¹ as long as it makes us a better team. Just don’t get fleeced please.

    I became acutely aware of my own irrational attachment to Oilers players in the time following the Sam Gagner “trade”. I was standing right next to the engineer on that Gagner train. I thought he was a useful 2nd line C with some defensive liabilities that would eventually be worked out. I was horribly wrong, I guess.

    I also thought Jeff Deslauriers would be an NHL goalie forever.

    While we are at it, despite clear evidence to the contrary I also “think” (by that I mean feel through my half drunken stupor while watching Oilers games on grainy internet feeds) that Klinkhammer is a great 4th liner who hits everything that moves, and that Korpikoski’s “try” meter appears to be off the charts. In the same vein, Tyler Pitlick appears to be an NHLer. These guys ‘appear’ to be getting something done but in fact it is just the opposite. A sort of inversely proportional Dustin Penner’s skating, if you will.

    It has become apparent to me via post-Gagner events that I don’t know shit about hockey despite watching and playing it for 30+ years. It’s something I am grappling with.

    Right now my irrational attachment is to Yakupov. Manohman it would hurt if they moved him. And yet, it seems it would hurt less now that I know I am always wrong at judging the hockeys.

    I have learned to step back and wait for the pieces to fall. Good luck, Mr. Chiarelli. I wouldn’t want to be in your position sir. At least get a better internet feed than me before you make your decision(s).

    ———
    ¹ No, not him.

  71. Oilspill says:

    The thing about fancies is that if you work hard enough you can find a way to credit or discredit players,even McDavid,without knowing any technical or strategic aspects about the game .
    The good thing is these people can feel that they are actually experts.

  72. fifthcartel says:

    “EDMONTON
    Top priority: Maximize return for UFAs
    Scoop: Defenceman Justin Schultz has been on the market for a while, but GM Peter Chiarelli has a few other pending free agents in his arsenal. Eric Gryba’s name is percolating and Teddy Purcell could well find a new home soon”

    http://www.tsn.ca/talent/mondaymustread-a-look-at-every-team-s-needs-wants-and-wishes-1.438334

    I hope they move Gryba. If they re-sign him then I think there is too many defensemen when they need significant upgrades.

  73. geowal says:

    striker: This should end well

    Obviously there’s going to be an Evander Kane for Teddy Purcell trade, straight up, announced imminently.

  74. square_wheels says:

    Oilspill,

    Run for cover !

  75. Магия 10 says:

    striker: This should end well

    In the old days a player out late in Toronto would have made time on the QEW to get back to Buffalo on time.

    THAT did not end well.

    (We do not need this guy and his problems)

  76. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    The specific D Vatanen, Severson, Shattenkirk, Hamonic – compared to their D peers.
    Fwds: Chris Stewart, David Backes, Anders Lee, Frans Nielsen and Stamkos for shits & giggles.

  77. VanIsleOil says:

    Oilspill,

    Here it comes!!

  78. G Money says:

    Oilanderp: It has become apparent to me via post-Gagner events that I don’t know shit about hockey despite watching and playing it for 30+ years. It’s something I am grappling with.

    It is to your immense credit that you can say something like this.

    However, you give yourself far too little credit. I think your knowledge of hockey is very strong.

    What you – and all us fragile and flawed humans must come to grips with – is that our perceptions are hopelessly biased. There are literally hundreds of cognitive and perceptive biases that have been catalogued, and no doubt there are more waiting to be discovered.

    One of the worst biases that we humans have is that we have an objectivity bias – we think we are vastly more objective than we really are. Add that to the ‘intensity of recall’ bias – where clear and focused memories are thought to be more reliable, while neuroscience has demonstrated that to be patently false.

    Which ultimately is the root of “fancystats are wrong, I *know* what I saw.” Nope. You don’t know what you saw. The fact that you think so makes you even more wrong.

    I will conclude once again by trotting out my favourite quote from neuroscientist Steven Novella:

    When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under.

  79. maxwell_mischief says:

    I would love if Derren Helm ended up an Oiler this summer. I imagine the Oilers moving forward will have guys moving up and down through the line up, with a balanced top 9. I could easily see Helm playing with Yakupov (should he still be on Oiler), or Hall, Draisaitl, Kassian, (Lucic?). Would make the penalty kill better immediately. Plays LW or C from what I understand, and every time I’ve watched Detroit, he makes plays. Perfect 3C.

  80. Kevin Lowe says:

    Oilspill:
    The thing about fancies is that if you work hard enough you can find a way to credit or discredit players,even McDavid,without knowing any technical or strategic aspects about the game .The good thing is these peoplecan feel that they are actually experts.

    I agree.

    Nothing can replace experience.

    And lastly I’ll say that there’s one other guy in hockey today that is still working in the game that has won more Stanley Cups than me.

    So I think I know a little bit about winning, if there’s ever a concern

  81. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Kevin Lowe,

    Fuck you Bookjie!!!

  82. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: When I look at this stuff for all teams, 3rd pairing Dmen *always* do better by these metrics.

    Its not my fault you think Fistric played 1st pairing.

    All 3 pairs need a box anchor.

    One pair shits the bed.
    Results are bad.

    Having a box anchor for the third pair for 1.25M.
    That year there were 2 on fistrics side.
    2!
    One was jagr,s goal beating another player.

    You have never got that one?

    Hamonic is a graber.
    Which he has free rain with in NY.
    Edmonton he is a trip to the penalty box.

  83. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy,

    The biggest reason that I think Nurse should be in the AHL is that he needs to be “the big man” on the ice. I think you can see that in the goal celebrations, etc. It’s part of his persona. It’s a good thing. However, he is not currently “the big man” on the NHL roster. He’s still so young.

  84. Bad Seed says:

    Kevin Lowe,

    I, for one, welcome Mr Lowe’s vast experience and knowledge. Does nothing
    but help this great blog get better.

  85. Stelio Kontos says:

    Weird how khaira was the guy who came out this year. Really didn’t see that coming. A good reminder how little you know about prospects in the lesser known leagues.

    It is getting harder and harder to pick weaknesses in the team. They should be better, and injuries have a story, but even since the mcdavid return they are underwhelming. I guess liquidate at the deadline and bring in some more role players over the summer. Trading Nuge is a no-go for me, since we have seen what trading the centre taking the toughs does to a young ppg centre. Trade huge and you have to find a horcoff in Free agency. I’m not sure he’s out there. My guess is nuge continues to be a quiet star who will one day get his glory ala datsyuk and bergeron.

    Problem with trading eberle is that our right wing position is actually fairly weak without him. You trade him and you have to find two top 6 right wings. Maybe they are Yak and Draisaitl, but Yak might not fit, and moving draisaitl limits your options.

    Hall Draisaitl Yakupov is a line I want to see for an extended time as yak-hall have good chem as do yak-drat (just not statistically iirc). That would leave nuge on an island though. I still think three pairs is the way to go. That way you always have a line to slaughter the soft parade.

    Hall Draisaitl Purcell (not attached to purcell, he is just a decent player who could easily be replaced like Roy, people are a little high on the player). That being said I would bring him back in the summer. This line is being pulled down by the lack of nuges in the lineup.

    Pouliot McDavid Yakupov- I know eberle is outstanding, but I think this is the sacrifice you make to get 3 lines rolling. It’s not like lines weren’t made to be juggled.

    XXX Nuge Eberle – They are really good together. If a team chooses to match the top two lines, they will make them pay. I wish we had another pouliot, Kassian could slot in, but I would prefer a ufa (david perron would be a dream, but he bit the hand.

    Kassian Letestu Hendricks I would prefer someone better than letestu, suspect lander gets one more shot. It might be time to sell hendricks and pick up another UFA winger. If we run 3 lines, they won’t play much.

    If my computer doesn’t die, I will do defence, but for now.

    Talbot -nuff said
    I would like to see them grab a bernier type for insurance, and let brossoit fight for a roster spot.

  86. Woodguy says:

    Evilas:
    Woodguy,

    The specific D Vatanen, Severson, Shattenkirk, Hamonic – compared to their D peers.
    Fwds: Chris Stewart,David Backes, Anders Lee, Frans Nielsen and Stamkos for shits & giggles.

    That’s a lot. Won’t do them all.

    All data from waronice.com (gone in March) and Behindthenet.ca

    Here’s Vatanen

    HDSC%
    Josh.Manson 57.64
    Shea.Theodore 57.63
    Hampus.Lindholm 56.67
    Clayton.Stoner 55.19
    Kevin.Bieksa 50.14
    Korbinian.Holzer 50
    Sami.Vatanen 49.68
    Cam.Fowler 48.4
    Simon.Despres 44.87

    HDSCF/60
    Josh.Manson 11.39
    Hampus.Lindholm 11.28
    Kevin.Bieksa 11.12
    Shea.Theodore 11.1
    Korbinian.Holzer 11.03
    Clayton.Stoner 10.97
    Cam.Fowler 10.87
    Simon.Despres 10.85
    Sami.Vatanen 10.82

    Pretty tight cluster. 0.57 separating top from bottom

    HDSCA/60
    Simon.Despres 13.33
    Cam.Fowler 11.59
    Kevin.Bieksa 11.06
    Korbinian.Holzer 11.03
    Sami.Vatanen 10.96
    Clayton.Stoner 8.91
    Hampus.Lindholm 8.62
    Josh.Manson 8.37
    Shea.Theodore 8.16

    Here’s the QC of the ANA Dmen via TOIC
    Kevin.Bieksa 17.54
    Josh.Manson 17.53
    Hampus.Lindholm 17.51
    Simon.Despres 17.43
    Cam.Fowler 17.43
    Sami.Vatanen 17.35
    Shea.Theodore 17.22
    Clayton.Stoner 17.11
    Korbinian.Holzer 16.92

    Here is their QC via RelCorQC (behindthenet.ca)
    SIMONDESPRES 1.636
    JOSHMANSON 1.123
    HAMPUSLINDHOLM 0.95
    KEVINBIEKSA 0.834
    CAMFOWLER 0.729
    SAMIVATANEN 0.571
    CLAYTONSTONER 0.148
    SHEATHEODORE -0.445
    KORBINIANHOLZER -0.651

    Despres has only played 6 games this year so his results can be whacky due to sample size, as can Theodore (12gp) and Kolzer (18gp)

    Interestingly Despres’ new contract starts next year $3.7MM x 4, which is adding pressure to get rid of a Dman (maybe two, there have been rumours around Fowler for the last 2 years)

  87. Stelio Kontos says:

    I’d also be an advocate of monster lines at home with the last change, and unicorns on the road.

  88. kinger_OIL says:

    – Reading that article in french, the one nuance that I picked up is the timeline: Chia still can slow play this. He can’t fix everything this trade deadline.

    – He really has 3 chances in the next 12 months to get to his roster: 1) this trade deadline, 2) this off-season, 3) next trade deadline.

    – Like the Jays this season, the OIL need to be good enough by next trade deadline to pick up the final pieces. The Jays got Martin, Estrada Donaldson, traded away Lind Melkey, promising prospect Gose, and really a bunch of other smart moves in the off-season, then at trade deadline, they get Tulo and Price, and a few other pieces: it wasn’t all done at once.

    – Chia talks about a year to 18 months: so three deadlines. That’s the smart way, and I’ve always been operating under the premise its this off-season or bust.

    – Chia is giving himself untill 2017 trade deadline to make this his team: that’s reasonable, and that’s never been brought up before

  89. Woodguy says:

    Hamonic

    HDSC%
    Calvin.De.Haan 55.74
    Johnny.Boychuk 51.35
    Marek.Zidlicky 50.67
    Travis.Hamonic 50.26
    Nick.Leddy 49.06
    Thomas.Hickey 45.41
    Brian.Strait 39.55

    HDSCF/60
    Calvin.De.Haan 12.75
    Marek.Zidlicky 11.99
    Travis.Hamonic 11.89
    Thomas.Hickey 11.36
    Nick.Leddy 11.26
    Johnny.Boychuk 10.94
    Brian.Strait 8.77

    HDSCA/60
    Calvin.De.Haan 10.13
    Johnny.Boychuk 10.37
    Marek.Zidlicky 11.67
    Nick.Leddy 11.69
    Travis.Hamonic 11.76
    Brian.Strait 13.41
    Thomas.Hickey 13.65

    QC via TOIT
    Travis.Hamonic
    Nick.Leddy
    Calvin.De.Haan
    Johnny.Boychuk
    Brian.Strait
    Thomas.Hickey
    Marek.Zidlicky

    QC via RelCorQC
    CALVINDEHAAN
    TRAVISHAMONIC
    NICKLEDDY
    JOHNNYBOYCHUK
    BRIANSTRAIT
    THOMASHICKEY
    MAREKZIDLICKY

  90. JDï™ says:

    Hi Kevin!

  91. Woogie63 says:

    Not sure the Oilers are targeting Purcell, Shultz, Gryba for trade deadline. They need their contract adjusted down, but…

    We are too weak in the replacements… Assuming we get a 3rd rounder at best for the above targets.

    Shultz > Osterle

    Purcell > Slepyshev or Kahaira

    Gryba > Reinhart

  92. Woodguy says:

    Shattenkirk

    HDSC%
    Colton.Parayko 56.91
    Robert.Bortuzzo 55.91
    Carl.Gunnarsson 52.36
    Alex.Pietrangelo 49.39
    Joel.Edmundson 45.93
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 45.11
    Jay.Bouwmeester 44.76

    HDSCF/60
    Colton.Parayko 11.55
    Alex.Pietrangelo 11.49
    Jay.Bouwmeester 10.37
    Carl.Gunnarsson 10.25
    Robert.Bortuzzo 9.7
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 9.12
    Joel.Edmundson 8.31

    HDSCA/60
    Robert.Bortuzzo 7.65
    Colton.Parayko 8.74
    Carl.Gunnarsson 9.33
    Joel.Edmundson 9.78
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 11.09
    Alex.Pietrangelo 11.78
    Jay.Bouwmeester 12.8

    QC TOIT%
    Jay.Bouwmeester
    Alex.Pietrangelo
    Kevin.Shattenkirk
    Carl.Gunnarsson
    Colton.Parayko
    Robert.Bortuzzo
    Joel.Edmundson

    QC RelCorQC
    JAYBOUWMEESTER
    ALEXPIETRANGELO
    CARLGUNNARSSON
    KEVINSHATTENKIRK
    COLTONPARAYKO
    ROBERTBORTUZZO
    JOELEDMUNDSON

    Shattenkirk’s numbers are much better last year until his abdominal injury and consequential surgery.

    He re-injured it again in early October.

    I wonder if he’ll fully heal and return to form?

    I’ll do last year’s Shattenkirk’s numbers for interest

  93. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    Wow, thanks Darcy! I am away from my PC, but I will attempt to emulate your efforts. Vatanen looks meh, but Hamonic looks fantastic. I am looking for a cheaper bubbling under RD and I have ID’d Severson, but I haven’t seen the underlying numbers.

  94. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    Parayko looks fantastic! But we already know this. I’ve never really been sold on Shattenkirk, this info doesn’t do anything to change my opinion.

    Thanks again for this info!

  95. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Hamonic has a TOIT QoC. Yes, I see that from his TOIT stats. Yes, he is TOIT like a toiger.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Shattenkirk 62gp in 14/15

    HDSC%
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 58.87
    Barret.Jackman 55.41
    Ian.Cole 54.85
    Chris.Butler 53.47
    Zbynek.Michalek 50.43
    Carl.Gunnarsson 50.15
    Jay.Bouwmeester 50
    Alex.Pietrangelo 48.87
    Petteri.Lindbohm 45.35

    HDSCF/60
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 12.1
    Ian.Cole 11.62
    Jay.Bouwmeester 10.78
    Barret.Jackman 10.75
    Alex.Pietrangelo 10.36
    Zbynek.Michalek 10.02
    Carl.Gunnarsson 9.21
    Chris.Butler 8.83
    Petteri.Lindbohm 7.06

    HDSCA/60
    Chris.Butler 7.69
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 8.45
    Petteri.Lindbohm 8.5
    Barret.Jackman 8.65
    Carl.Gunnarsson 9.15
    Ian.Cole 9.57
    Zbynek.Michalek 9.84
    Jay.Bouwmeester 10.78
    Alex.Pietrangelo 10.84

    QC TOIT%
    Jay.Bouwmeester
    Carl.Gunnarsson
    Alex.Pietrangelo
    Chris.Butler
    Kevin.Shattenkirk
    Petteri.Lindbohm
    Zbynek.Michalek
    Ian.Cole
    Barret.Jackman

    QC RelCorQC
    ZBYNEKMICHALEK
    ALEXPIETRANGELO
    JAYBOUWMEESTER
    CARLGUNNARSSON
    PETTERILINDBOHM
    KEVINSHATTENKIRK
    ROBERTBORTUZZO
    CHRISBUTLER
    BARRETJACKMAN

  97. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Hamonic has a TOIT QoC.Yes, I see that from his TOIT stats. Yes, he is TOIT like a toiger.

    *Strong Weiser clap*

    *lifts glass*

  98. LMHF#1 says:

    G Money:

    When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under.

    Don’t quote him too much – he sounds like a real ass. I also highly doubt he applies this standard to his own life.

    Would love to see him apply this type of thinking to his own work and get stuck in the inevitable loop that would result.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Evilas:
    Woodguy,

    Parayko looks fantastic!But we already know this.I’ve never really been sold on Shattenkirk, this info doesn’t do anything to change my opinion.

    Thanks again for this info!

    Parayko is playing 3rds now, but he’s killing it for sure, especially for a rookie. A very large rookie.

    I think injury has impacted Shattenkirk, especially if you come last year to this year.

    Healthy, he’s a 2nd pairing offensive killer, not sure if he can play 1st.

    Not healthy, well, he’s not healthy.

    Question is how is his health going foward?

    Is the abdominal thing chronic?

    Best to let another team figure that out, especially for $7MM+ per year.

  100. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    I Agee 110 percent! Abdominal injuries can be one of the most difficult to heal. I wouldn’t take a chance on him.

  101. Adam Wu says:

    LMHF#1: Don’t quote him too much – he sounds like a real ass. I also highly doubt he applies this standard to his own life.

    Would love to see him apply this type of thinking to his own work and get stuck in the inevitable loop that would result.

    The loop is broken by having other people with different biases check his work. And then having those people’s work checked yet another by yet more people. The end result is not necessarily perfect, but is more accurate than any single person’s eye and judgement can ever possibly be.

    It’s called the scientific method. We figured it out about 300 year ago (possibly earlier). It’s not rocket science, although it can do rocket science quite well.

  102. godot10 says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Woodguy,

    The biggest reason that I think Nurse should be in the AHL is that he needs to be “the big man” on the ice.I think you can see that in the goal celebrations, etc.It’s part of his persona.It’s a good thing.However, he is not currently “the big man” on the NHL roster.He’s still so young.

    I think Nurse needs to be in the NHL on the third pair with a veteran to learn the situational judgement side of the game.

    He is too physically dominant at the AHL level to learn NHL “boundaries”. The only way he can learn how far he can push the edges of his game is in the NHL.

    Dynamic D are better off in the NHL learning if they are clearly dominant in the AHL, which Nurse is.

    D who are supposed to turn off the sun (like Reinhart) are better learning in the AHL, and shuttling up for stints in the NHL to see where they are at.)

  103. Woodguy says:

    Adam Wu: The loop is broken by having other people with different biases check his work. And then having those people’s work checked yet another by yet more people. The end result is not necessarily perfect, but is more accurate than any single person’s eye and judgement can ever possibly be.

    It’s called the scientific method. We figured it out about 300 year ago (possibly earlier). It’s not rocket science, although it can do rocket science quite well.

    This is why you can use fancystats to prove “anything”, or at least not around here (usually)

    If someone is talking out their ass, people are lined up 10 deep to call them on it.

    Of course 7 of those replies are often “I’M SORRY BUT I SAW……”, but the other 3 take you to task properly.

  104. Woodguy says:

    godot10: I think Nurse needs to be in the NHL on the third pair with a veteran to learn the situational judgement side of the game.

    He is too physically dominant at the AHL level to learn NHL “boundaries”.The only way he can learn how far he can push the edges of his game is in the NHL.

    Dynamic D are better off in the NHL learning if they are clearly dominant in the AHL, which Nurse is.

    D who are supposed to turn off the sun (like Reinhart) are better learning in the AHL, and shuttling up for stints in the NHL to see where they are at.)

    That’s very fair.

    His skating would be a huge advantage in the AHL.

    He needs his head to catch up to his NHL feet and that takes time.

  105. AsiaOil says:

    Lots of guys are interesting to obtain – but subtraction first – guys with not enough talent, not enough brains or not enough try get shown the door. Yes the defense matters. But……..hockey is a physical game and you can either be large, skilled enough and physically abuse your opponent (LA/ANA/BOS model of recent cup winners) or smaller, faster but absolutely tenacious with regard to puck possession (CHI/DET model). The Oilers are NEITHER. Certainly not big and absolutely not tenacious – we roll over cede puck possession ridiculously easily and many of the exiting top 9 forward have shown little interest in getting bigger or tougher. We shine on ice capades nights against weak opponents and get our faces rubbed in the dirt by the tough guys of the NHL. I doubt Chia thinks this is “fun” so changes will be made to make us tougher if not bigger.

    Free Yakupov!

  106. frjohnk says:

    “Oilers add Hamonic, Nielsen and Anders Lee—plus NYI 1st round pick, currently No. 20— and another substantial piece (Ryan Strome, Michael Dal Colle, Ilya Sorokin), for Eberle and the first-round selection. Thoughts?”

    I think that is a overpay from the Islanders

    As an Eberle fan I do that trade as we need a Dman like Hamonic. Id hope to xplore other avenues first, but if in the end, to get a top 2 Dman like Hamonic, Id trade Eberle.

    From what I have read from Staples ( beat reporter for Islanders) is that the Islanders were not interested in Eberle. They had a right winger (Okposo) for Tavares and wanted a Dman in return for Hamonic.

    But with Okposo most likely hitting free agency, (Tavares not having a great year with him )and nobody else looking they could fill a top line role with Tavares, I wonder if they would circle back to Eberle.

    Eberle is showing great chemistry with McDavid and is just cementing the fact that Eberle is an elite right winger. Snow may like a Eberle-Tavares duo.

  107. AsiaOil says:

    Agree with much of that WG except the part where Nurse has shown he has dominated the AHL. I still think he could use the rest of the season in California as the NHL game is going far too fast for him. All the stuff that we hate in Shultz’s game is there in spades with Nurse but he’s given a pass by many because of his physical game (which I value a lot). He needs more time and there is plenty for him to learn in the AHL.

    Woodguy: That’s very fair.

    His skating would be a huge advantage in the AHL.

    He needs his head to catch up to his NHL feet and that takes time.

  108. russ99 says:

    I like that Isles deal, (the Oil need to add) but there’s one problem: The Isles want a good young D back in return.

    As much as I want Hamonic on the Oilers, Trouba + a good asset + high pick gets him to Winnipeg, and I don’t know if the Oilers are willing to match that.

    So back to the same three-way deal with STL or Klefbom or Nurse deals. LT mentioned fearing Davidson being the one out on his show today, I really don’t like that idea, for obvious cap reasons.

  109. stush18 says:

    I tend to agree with LT and his reasoning about players being traded for prospects and not for draft picks. Our cupboards are pretty bare. Just scanning through AHL teams this morning.

    Player size position gp g a

    Trevor carrick 6’2″ 186 (ld) 46 9 21 – I also like pesce and slavin (right and left dmen) from Carolina, but I can’t see them being moved.

    ty rattie 6′ 190 rw 38 9 16- not sure if he has the tools to become a scorer or not, but he was a prolific junior scorer.

    Jordan schmaltz 6’2″ 193 (rd) 46 3 21- lot of assists, not sure how much offense he brings

    Joel edmundson 6-4 210 (rd) -according to the site he is inactive, but he put up 12 points in 30 games the year before.

    Martin frk 6′ 200 (rw) 39 19 10- been a favourite of mine since junior, followed him closely in detroits system. Knock was always he wasn’t aggressive enough.

    Anthony mantha 6-5 204 (lw) 43 12 17- I think the asking price would be high, but he can score.

    Ryan sproul 6-4 203 (rd) 47-6-11 – he has regressed statistically ever since his first year in the league, not sure if his play has. His bio reads hard shot, pp quarterback, physical.

    Andreas athanasiou 6-2 (lc) 26 8 8- very fast, and good size, this guy is a good pickup.

    Zach nastasiuk 6-2 202 (rw) 15 0 4 – big and fast again, he was a g pod junior player

    Riley barber 6-0 198 (rw) 50-16 20- has some of the better statlines, and is a rookie pro. Don’t know much about him

    Connor carrick 5-10 (Rd) 42 10 14 – small puck moving dman,

    Jakob vrana 5-11 190 (lw) 15-7-9 small scoring winger, only 21

    Stanislev galiev 6-1 (rw) playing with Washington now, he doesn’t play much and played very well in the AHL last year

    Grayson downing 6-0 196 (lc) 34-14-16 – don’t know much about other than he is another rookie pro

    Gustav ollafson 6-3 200 (ld) 48-2-15- all star this year, although we really don’t need left dmen.

    Michael paliotta 6-3 207 (Rd) 47 7 13 big right handed dman physical puts up points. Can’t see Columbus moving him though

    Nick moutrey 6-3 222 (lw) 35 5 5- very big boy who can skate quite well. Think he fits Chias mild perfectly.

    Eric Roy 6-3 185 (ld) 10-1 3 -rookie pro dman, unreal puck skills

    Jiri fronk 6-2 (rw) 21-6-1 -rookie pro, big body, scores lots.

    Max gortz 6-2 202 (rw) 43-9-19- rookie, big body, high in team scoring, first year adjusting to smaller rinks.

    Trevor Murphy 5-11 195 (ld) 32-8-13-rookie dman, can’t imagine there is a lot of room in nasville for d, although he is smaller and shoots left. Not sure he’s a target

    Vladislav kamenev 6-2 196 (lc) 29-8-12 -rookie pro, adjusting to smaller ice surface and killing it. I’d try and snatch him up, although with nashvilles trouble scoring I doubt they move him.

    Colton scissons 6-1 200 (rc) 29-6-10- doubt Nashville moves him, he’s already moving back and forth

    Adrian kempe and zykov for LA are both big bodies and playing well in the AHL, but la doesn’t have much in way of prospects, so they are unlikely to be moved

    Michael mersch 6-1 225 (lw) 33-18-9 played well when called up to LA. I’m thinking Patrick maroon 2.0

    Justin auger 6-7 229 (rw) 45-11-10 huge player, second year pro and playing pretty well. Skating likely the main question.

    Seth Griffith 5-9 192 (rw) 40 16 35 -not sure why the Bruins haven’t called him up, he’s ripping up the AHL.

    Justin Bailey 6-4 200 (rw) 47 10 13- rookie pro with good size and skating. Buffaloes has lots of prospects, might be willing to part

    Nick baptiste 6-1 203 (rw) 37 7 9 big part of a trade a few years back I believe, it’s his first year pro

    Marc McNeil 6-2 216 (rc) 36 12 14 -big center, strong, and pushing for a spot on a deep Chicago team. They may wish to invest in a new player rather than lose him to waivers.

    Dennis Rasmussen 6-4 200 (lc) 22 7 7- big center in his second year pro from over seas,

    Mikko rantanen 6-4 33 17 24 -lol I wish

    Nikita jevpalovs 6-1 210 (rw) 41 3 8- first year pro from over seas, adjusting to small Ice, and plays for todds old team.

    Radek faksa 6-3 205 (lc) 28 15 11 – big centre, don’t think he is going to get a shot on Dallas

    Devin shore 6-1 200 (c) 23 15 11 same as faksa, can’t see him getting enough ice time

    Oskar sundquist 6-3 210 (rc) 39 5 11 – rookie pro, first time playing from overseas. Looks to be a good prospect. Perhaps Pittsburgh loads up for the playoffs?

    I didn’t include Vancouver or Calgary. Not much point in my opinion. I also tried to stay away from famous names (barbashev, pouliot, nylander) or players we’ve been mentioning (Ritchie)

    Tried to focus on big, fast, right handed, and points, although some left handed d slipped in.

    Most were not overaged, and if they were I mentioned it.

  110. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    Is there a stat for zone start Corsi.

    If you are thought by your coach as having good defensive fundamental and he starts you in your own zone 65 percent of the time you would think you would have a poor Corsi.

    Like Oates told Gregor you lose the face off and you could have five shots on you before you clear the zone.

    It just seems logical that zone starts must have a huge influence on your Corsi.

    What say you.

  111. blainer says:

    Evilas:
    Woodguy,

    Wow, thanks Darcy!I am away from my PC, but I will attempt to emulate your efforts.Vatanen looks meh, but Hamonic looks fantastic.I am looking for a cheaper bubbling underRD and I have ID’d Severson, but I haven’t seen the underlying numbers.

    Severson has been a healthy scratch for new jersey three times in the last ten days.

    Last time we traded for a D who was scratched was Nikita Nikitin.

    No thanks to Severson.

  112. dangilitis says:

    Question for the group. I know some people here were bullish on Tyutin back when they acquired his terrible compatriot. He is now apparently on the market (http://www.tsn.ca/mondaymustread-a-look-at-every-team-s-needs-wants-and-wishes-1.438334). A quick look shows that he is 32, shoots left, and his already low offensive output has declined (only 2 pts) this year. I assume at 4+ mil/season he is not what the Oilers need anymore? Any insight?

  113. godot10 says:

    AsiaOil:
    Lots of guys are interesting to obtain – but subtraction first – guys with not enough talent, not enough brains or not enough try get shown the door. Yes the defense matters. But……..hockey is a physical game and you can either be large, skilled enough and physically abuse your opponent (LA/ANA/BOS model of recent cup winners) or smaller, faster but absolutely tenacious with regard to puck possession (CHI/DET model). The Oilers are NEITHER. Certainly not big and absolutely not tenacious – we roll over cede puck possession ridiculously easily and many of the exiting top 9 forward have shown little interest in getting bigger or tougher. We shine on ice capades nights against weak opponents and get our faces rubbed in the dirt by the tough guys of the NHL. I doubt Chia thinks this is “fun” so changes will be made to make us tougher if not bigger.

    Free Yakupov!

    Hall/Nugent-Hopkins/Draisaitl compares reasonably well with whoever/Toews/Hossa
    Pouliot/McDavid/Eberle compares reasonably well, with Panarin/Anisimov/Kane (or previous versions of this line with Patrick Sharp).

    Draisaitl can be a heavy winger, and will hold up better over the season as winger. Move him to centre when Nugent-Hopkins has to be traded for cap reasons.

    If one is then adding Kassian and Khaira and Slepyshev…these are all bigger bodies in the bottom of the roster.

    If Korpikoski and Lander are #13 and #14 in the pressbox next year.

    the fourth line is:

    Khaira/Letestu/Hendricks

    the third line just needs an upgrade at centre between Kassian and Yakupov.

    So only real need at forward is a proven 3rd line centre with some size and physicality, plus whatever top 6 or lesser forward that needs to be replaced because of a trade for D.

    With Slepyshev being the wildcard.

  114. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy:
    Shattenkirk 62gp in 14/15

    HDSC%
    Kevin.Shattenkirk58.87
    Barret.Jackman55.41
    Ian.Cole54.85
    Chris.Butler53.47
    Zbynek.Michalek50.43
    Carl.Gunnarsson50.15
    Jay.Bouwmeester50
    Alex.Pietrangelo48.87
    Petteri.Lindbohm45.35

    HDSCF/60
    Kevin.Shattenkirk12.1
    Ian.Cole11.62
    Jay.Bouwmeester10.78
    Barret.Jackman10.75
    Alex.Pietrangelo10.36
    Zbynek.Michalek10.02
    Carl.Gunnarsson9.21
    Chris.Butler8.83
    Petteri.Lindbohm7.06

    HDSCA/60
    Chris.Butler7.69
    Kevin.Shattenkirk8.45
    Petteri.Lindbohm8.5
    Barret.Jackman8.65
    Carl.Gunnarsson9.15
    Ian.Cole9.57
    Zbynek.Michalek9.84
    Jay.Bouwmeester10.78
    Alex.Pietrangelo10.84

    QC TOIT%
    Jay.Bouwmeester
    Carl.Gunnarsson
    Alex.Pietrangelo
    Chris.Butler
    Kevin.Shattenkirk
    Petteri.Lindbohm
    Zbynek.Michalek
    Ian.Cole
    Barret.Jackman

    QC RelCorQC
    ZBYNEKMICHALEK
    ALEXPIETRANGELO
    JAYBOUWMEESTER
    CARLGUNNARSSON
    PETTERILINDBOHM
    KEVINSHATTENKIRK
    ROBERTBORTUZZO
    CHRISBUTLER
    BARRETJACKMAN

    Hey WG. Love your work on the Blues D-men

    What would your comparison work look like on the Yotes Michael Stone and Conner Murphy. Both RHD and are RFA . Not sure if they can sign both.

  115. G Money says:

    sliderule,

    It’s a smaller effect than you think.

    I calculate ‘true zone starts’ for every game. Most players start their shifts on the fly.

    For example, in the last game, Brandon Davidson was the most ‘punished’ player. TMc started him for 4 shifts in the defensive zone and only 1 in the o zone.

    He had 8 more shifts with faceoffs, but those occurred during the course of play. Whether they were o or d, they were ‘earned’ by Davidson.

    Davidson had 28 total shifts. So it works like this:

    28 shifts
    5 of them were started with a faceoff. 4 of those were defensive.
    8 had a faceoff during shifts, but didn’t start that way.
    15 of his shifts were purely on the fly.

  116. godot10 says:

    dangilitis:
    Question for the group. I know some people here were bullish on Tyutin back when they acquired his terrible compatriot. He is now apparently on the market (http://www.tsn.ca/mondaymustread-a-look-at-every-team-s-needs-wants-and-wishes-1.438334). A quick look shows that he is 32, shoots left, and his already low offensive output has declined (only 2 pts) this year. I assume at 4+ mil/season he is not what the Oilers need anymore? Any insight?

    Why are you looking for a replacement for Ference and Nikitin as the overpaid D who can no longer play? The Oilers have 3rd pairing D coming out of their ears. At best, that is what Tyutin is now, if you are lucky.

    But Nurse/Gryba is the likely 3rd pairing next year.

    One has to aim far higher and younger.

  117. G Money says:

    LMHF#1: Don’t quote him too much – he sounds like a real ass. I also highly doubt he applies this standard to his own life.

    Would love to see him apply this type of thinking to his own work and get stuck in the inevitable loop that would result.

    Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a complete and total ass.

    Wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t apply his own research to his own life. Not uncommon in doctors, actually.

    Nonetheless – his expertise in the area of neuroscience is pretty well established.

    And as Adam pointed out, that expertise is established in a peer-reviewed world, so it’s pretty reasonable to think that his conclusions are much more likely to be vetted, than, say, “I saw that player bad!”

  118. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’ve mused a few times, mostly to my very exclusive twitter audience, that the Blues would be very wise to shop Petriangelo.

    They could get an absolute kings ransom for him. The Oilers would certainly give up Eberle ++ to acquire him. The numbers have called his game into question for a few years now but the discourse hasn’t caught up with it. Would be selling at the perceived top of his game, no question.

    That would allow them to keep Shattenkirk, who is the guy best suited to driving offense from the back end on that squad anyway.

    Realised potential Parayko is a better Petriangelo replacement than a Shattenkirk replacement.

    Everything about it makes sense. It definitely won’t happen though.

  119. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    Is there a stat for zone start Corsi.

    If you are thought by your coach as having good defensive fundamental and he starts you in your own zone 65 percent of the time you would think you would have a poor Corsi.

    Like Oates told Gregor you lose the face off and you could have five shots on you before you clear the zone.

    It just seems logical that zone starts must have a huge influence on your Corsi.

    What say you.

    This piece is pretty close to what I agree with: http://www.whyhockey.com/blog/thinking-out-loud-the-importance-of-faceoffs-and-zone-starts-for-in-game-strategy/

    It was these two pieces on zone starts that first link is *kind of* a rebuttal to, but they have great info as well.

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    The short answer is that they matter if the players you are comparing have a large disparity (see: Gordan/Boyd), but over all it tends to wash as most shifts start on the fly.

    Look at the player’s ZS, if they are significantly different, dig deeper, if not the effect is not very large.

    QC and QT is much, much more important for giving context to results imo.

  120. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    8 had a faceoff during shifts, but didn’t start that way.

    That’s really important to the whole “zone start” thing falling away.

    Turns out the majority of the face offs happen mid-shift so the “zone start” is actually an “earned zone start” in that the players on the ice were in that zone to start with and not sent to that zone by the coach.

    So if a player is getting a lot of ozone starts, its often because his line is pushing the puck to the ozone and getting shots.

  121. sliderule says:

    G Money,

    Thank you,

    That is great stuff you are doing.

    Do you track the zone face offs earned after change on the fly?

    Tod doesn’t do it all that much but some coaches would change if a weak group have a defensive zone face off.

    I don’t recall Davidson’s Corsi but if he is trusted 4/1 d zone to o zone Tod must really trust him.

  122. Lowetide says:

    I think that is a overpay from the Islanders

    Glad you posted on this. One of the things I least like about posting trade ideas is finding a reasonable range (it is damned difficult). I tend to agree NYI are giving up a lot, but then again it is very difficult to find something that fits both sides. In the deal, Edmonton sends Eberle and Matt Tkachuk—those are high end offensive players who can be a big part of the Islanders offense for years.

    Edmonton gets less in terms of certainty. Hamonic is excellent but limited offensively. Lee is a big man with some offense but not a guy who is likely to be in the range offensively with Eberle or Tkachuk. Nielsen is a free agent, so the value is there but is not a certainty. I threw in the prospect because, at that point in my internal conversation, I did not have it as an even deal.

    In trading Eberle and Tkachuk, the Oilers are sending away a stunning amount of offense.

  123. LMHF#1 says:

    G Money:

    Idea! Peer reviewed hockey journal.

  124. dangilitis says:

    godot10: Why are you looking for a replacement for Ference and Nikitin as the overpaid D who can no longer play?The Oilers have 3rd pairing D coming out of their ears.At best, that is what Tyutin is now, if you are lucky.

    But Nurse/Gryba is the likely 3rd pairing next year.

    One has to aim far higher and younger.

    I am pretty sure I said I didn’t think he was a good fit at this point. I was just asking others for clarification. If you want to be pompous about it, then don’t bother responding to me next time.

  125. Woodguy says:

    flyfish1168: Hey WG. Love your work on the Blues D-men

    What would your comparison work look like on the Yotes Michael Stone and Conner Murphy. Both RHD and are RFA . Not sure if they can sign both.

    Stone and Murphy have each played about 450min this year with OEL, so you cannot separate out his affect on their numbers.

    If I wanted to pump and dump a Dman I’d play him with OEL.

    Both mostly play with Grossman when not with OEL.

    That being said it looks like Murphy is the better of the two (at least as OEL partner, check them each out more fully at stats.hockeyanalysis.com)

    HDSC%
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 52.96
    Connor.Murphy 52.72
    Michael.Stone 47.66
    Zbynek.Michalek 47.59
    Nicklas.Grossmann 46.61
    Klas.Dahlbeck 44.09
    Stefan.Elliott 38.64

    HDSCF/60
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 12.3
    Connor.Murphy 11.3
    Michael.Stone 10.73
    Nicklas.Grossmann 9.85
    Zbynek.Michalek 8.84
    Stefan.Elliott 8.55
    Klas.Dahlbeck 7.96

    HDSCA/60
    Zbynek.Michalek 9.73
    Klas.Dahlbeck 10.09
    Connor.Murphy 10.14
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 10.92
    Nicklas.Grossmann 11.28
    Michael.Stone 11.78
    Stefan.Elliott 13.58

    QC TOIT
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson
    Michael.Stone
    Connor.Murphy
    Nicklas.Grossmann
    Klas.Dahlbeck
    Stefan.Elliott
    Zbynek.Michalek

    QC RelCor QC
    CONNORMURPHY
    NICKLASGROSSMAN
    OLIVEREKMAN-LARSSON
    MICHAELSTONE
    ZBYNEKMICHALEK
    KLASDAHLBECK
    STEFANELLIOTT

    This shows the weakness of RelCorQC as its not in dispute that OEL sees the toughest night after night and TOIT is better as ordering the QC, but neither is good at delineating the difference in QC.

    This is also the reason I have been showing two QC metrics as none of them are particularly great.

  126. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Glad you posted on this. One of the things I least like about posting trade ideas is finding a reasonable range (it is damned difficult). I tend to agree NYI are giving up a lot, but then again it is very difficult to find something that fits both sides. In the deal, Edmonton sends Eberle and Matt Tkachuk—those are high end offensive players who can be a big part of the Islanders offense for years.

    Edmonton gets less in terms of certainty. Hamonic is excellent but limited offensively. Lee is a big man with some offense but not a guy who is likely to be in the range offensively with Eberle or Tkachuk. Nielsen is a free agent, so the value is there but is not a certainty. I threw in the prospect because, at that point in my internal conversation, I did not have it as an even deal.

    In trading Eberle and Tkachuk, the Oilers are sending away a stunning amount of offense.

    Yeah, oilers would be giving up 1 for sure elite winger and another winger potentially even better.

    That is substantial value.

    The Islander package is sublime.

    But when we win the lottery we can aim higher 🙂

  127. dangilitis says:

    G Money: Wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t apply his own research to his own life. Not uncommon in doctors, actually.

    Oh, really?

    So lets recap. You insult someone for not applying empirical evidence to support claims.

    Then you make a claim that its “not uncommon in doctors, actually” to not apply evidence from research to their own lives. Lives which involve evidence-based practice.

    That’s not hypocritical, or arrogant. Not at all. And I suppose that comment came from a study about doctors?

    Geez, I don’t know what’s in the water today, but I am going to go enjoy the day with my family.

    P.S. I’m a doctor, and I disapprove of generalizations about an entire profession, no matter the context.

  128. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Yeah, oilers would be giving up 1 for sure elite winger and another winger potentially even better.

    That is substantial value.

    The Islander package is sublime.

    But when we win the lottery we can aim higher :)

    God. The mind boggles. Seriously. I would need time to wrap my brain around a McDavid-Matthews cluster.

  129. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy: Stone and Murphy have each played about 450min this year with OEL, so you cannot separate out his affect on their numbers.

    If I wanted to pump and dump a Dman I’d play him with OEL.

    Both mostly play with Grossman when not with OEL.

    That being said it looks like Murphy is the better of the two (at least as OEL partner, check them each out more fully at stats.hockeyanalysis.com)

    HDSC%
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson52.96
    Connor.Murphy52.72
    Michael.Stone47.66
    Zbynek.Michalek47.59
    Nicklas.Grossmann46.61
    Klas.Dahlbeck44.09
    Stefan.Elliott38.64

    HDSCF/60
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson12.3
    Connor.Murphy11.3
    Michael.Stone10.73
    Nicklas.Grossmann9.85
    Zbynek.Michalek8.84
    Stefan.Elliott8.55
    Klas.Dahlbeck7.96

    HDSCA/60
    Zbynek.Michalek9.73
    Klas.Dahlbeck10.09
    Connor.Murphy10.14
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson10.92
    Nicklas.Grossmann11.28
    Michael.Stone11.78
    Stefan.Elliott13.58

    QC TOIT
    Oliver.Ekman-Larsson
    Michael.Stone
    Connor.Murphy
    Nicklas.Grossmann
    Klas.Dahlbeck
    Stefan.Elliott
    Zbynek.Michalek

    QC RelCor QC
    CONNORMURPHY
    NICKLASGROSSMAN
    OLIVEREKMAN-LARSSON
    MICHAELSTONE
    ZBYNEKMICHALEK
    KLASDAHLBECK
    STEFANELLIOTT

    This shows the weakness of RelCorQC as its not in dispute that OEL sees the toughest night after night and TOIT is better as ordering the QC, but neither is good at delineating the difference in QC.

    This is also the reason I have been showing two QC metrics as none of them are particularly great.

    Thanks WG. OEL would be a nice add but he would cost us dearly.

  130. Zelepukin says:

    Lowetide: God. The mind boggles. Seriously. I would need time to wrap my brain around a McDavid-Matthews cluster.

    Like I said in posts previous, centaurs not unicorns. Centaurs with lazerbeam eyes. McD-Drai-Nuge-Matthews.

  131. Woodguy says:

    Was farting around looking at Dmen 5v4 numbers (Shattenkirk is a stone killer on the PP) and saw some interesting names in the top 30.

    Remember that being on a good PP will drive your numbers up, but often the Dman can drive a lot of the 5v4 play:

    5v4 Pts/60 this year:

    SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN 8.1
    SCHLEMKO, DAVID 7.07
    LEDDY, NICK 6.27
    GOSTISBEHERE, SHAYNE 6.25
    DOUGHTY, DREW 6.09
    DUMBA, MATT 6.02
    WEBER, SHEA 6.01
    MILLER, COLIN 5.99
    MUZZIN, JAKE 5.75
    RISTOLAINEN, RASMUS 5.69
    MARTINEZ, ALEC 5.62
    JOSI, ROMAN 5.6
    LETANG, KRIS 5.55
    BARRIE, TYSON 5.54
    EHRHOFF, CHRISTIAN 5.42
    BURNS, BRENT 5.39
    KRONWALL, NIKLAS 5.35
    NISKANEN, MATT 5.32
    CARLSON, JOHN 5.28
    KLINGBERG, JOHN 5.27
    CHARA, ZDENO 5.25
    SPURGEON, JARED 5.17
    HAMILTON, DOUGIE 4.95
    KARLSSON, ERIK 4.79
    SUBBAN, P.K. 4.76
    SEABROOK, BRENT 4.62
    BEAULIEU, NATHAN 4.58
    VLASIC, MARC-EDOUARD 4.51
    FAULK, JUSTIN 4.5
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 4.42

    LOOKIT EDMINTIN BOY DAVEY SCHLUMKO UP AT #2!!! ATTA-GO THERE DAVEY BOY!!!!

    I then went and had a look at his numbers. Been a tweener all his career (he’s 28, 29 in May), but his underlying numbers have always been decent and he had a history of about 3.75 pts/60 5v4 which is very respectable

    Interesting player.

    Lots of RHS on this list.

    Dumba might be available now that Spurgeon is paid and MIN needs offence.

    Barrie is available by all reports.

    Shattenkirk is always in rumours

    Seabrook might be available via trade this summer.

    Ristolainen will haunt my dreams.

    I think there are more right handers than left handers on that list.

  132. Lowetide says:

    IIrc Bruce wrote something on Schlemko long ago and far away.

  133. Optimism is Foolish says:

    Trading Eberle …… I have heard several times that we won’t win unless we can score vs the heavy teams and Eberle is too much a cream puff to do so. I personally have been on the trade Ebs bandwagon as we need to give to get but not so much anymore. I ran down the splits for his career vs the other teams to see how he does vs the big boys. I will let you draw your own conclusions but I would prefer he goes no where any more. His Career points/60 is at 2.56 and here is the list of head to heads.
    Teams Wt Ht GP p/60
    1 Anaheim 205.7 73.6 19 1.7
    2 Arizona 208.0 74.0 23 2.23
    3 Boston 198.9 73.3 8 2.55
    4 Buffalo 206.9 73.4 6 1.13
    5 Calgary 195.5 73.2 28 2.99
    6 Carolina 197.2 72.7 8 4.29
    7 Chicago 197.6 73.4 20 3.55
    8 Colorado 207.5 73.9 24 2.83
    9 Columbus 204.9 73.3 15 4.11
    10 Dallas 204.1 73.6 16 1.84
    11 Detroit 201.1 73.2 15 1.76
    12 Edmonton 203.3 73.6
    13 Florida 201.7 73.3 8 2.66
    14 Los Angeles 209.1 73.9 18 .51
    15 Minnesota 199.3 73.2 21 3.03
    16 Montreal 201.2 72.8 9 1.39
    17 Nashville 205.7 73.2 17 3.54
    18 New Jersey 197.9 72.4 7 2.69
    19 NY Islanders 206.0 72.9 6 2.16
    20 NY Rangers 204.7 73.3 8 2.01
    21 Ottawa 205.1 73.9 9 3.42
    22 Philadelphia 198.9 73.0 6 3.13
    23 Pittsburgh 197.8 73.0 8 2.05
    24 San Jose 204.2 73.3 22 3.16
    25 St. Louis 205.1 73.5 17 2.07
    26 Tampa Bay 201.0 73.3 8 2.29
    27 Toronto 198.7 72.9 10 5.3
    28 Vancouver 194.2 73.1 27 2.16
    29 Washington 203.0 73.4 7 1.31
    30 Winnipeg 208.2 74.2 10 2.28

    So he does score a little less vs heavy teams but not horribly so with the exception of LA (and wow do they have his number). Also we need to play more games vs the leafs …. 5.3/60 is just wow.

  134. rickithebear says:

    After seeing ferences and faynes move fromEC to WC.
    I made alist of the top 6 of the
    central teams
    21 gm
    Pacific teams
    29gm.

    The first question I ask!
    Can this EC dman handle the forwards of the west.
    Hamonic?
    Maybe
    Faulk?
    Jesus no F… Way.
    Petry?
    No way?

    Once you have done this!
    Your choice of Right handed strong Ev off D is?

  135. Adam Wu says:

    dangilitis: Oh, really?

    So lets recap. You insult someone for not applying empirical evidence to support claims.

    Then you make a claim that its “not uncommon in doctors, actually” to not apply evidence from research to their own lives. Lives which involve evidence-based practice.

    That’s not hypocritical, or arrogant. Not at all. And I suppose that comment came from a study about doctors?

    Geez, I don’t know what’s in the water today, but I am going to go enjoy the day with my family.

    P.S. I’m a doctor, and I disapprove of generalizations about an entire profession, no matter the context.

    I’m pretty sure he meant PRIVATE lives, excluding their professional practice.

  136. Woodguy says:

    Optimism is Foolish,

    Can you repost that, but order it in some way?

    Seems to be kinda random.

    Pts/60 would make sense.

    Also, not sure you need hits there or even GP as it makes it tough to read.

    Thanks for assembling all that data.

    I know its really time consuming.

  137. Adam Wu says:

    LMHF#1: Idea! Peer reviewed hockey journal.

    There is enough statistics and analysis in hockey now that this could be done, if there is a will among the people involved to do so.

  138. Adam Wu says:

    Also, peer review does not require a journal to exist.

    Pretty much any venue that double checks existing work, in any field, is a form a peer review. It may not be as rigorous as formal peer review systems, but so long as the principals involved are doing so in good faith, it is almost always still better than nothing.

    In fact, several examples of informal peer review can be found in the archives of this blog, wherein someone posts an analysis, and someone responds to a re-analysis of the same or similar data.

  139. Zelepukin says:

    Optimism is Foolish:
    Trading Eberle ……I have heard several times that we won’t win unless we can score vs the heavy teams and Eberle is too much a cream puff to do so.I personally have been on the trade Ebs bandwagon as we need to give to get but not so much anymore.I ran down the splits for his career vs the other teams to see how he does vs the big boys.I will let you draw your own conclusions but I would prefer he goes no where any more.His Career points/60 is at 2.56 and here is the list of head to heads.TeamsWt Ht GP p/60
    1Anaheim 205.773.6 19 1.7
    2Arizona208.074.0 23 2.23
    3Boston198.973.3 8 2.55
    4Buffalo206.973.4 6 1.13
    5Calgary195.573.2 28 2.99
    6Carolina 197.272.7 8 4.29
    7Chicago 197.673.4 20 3.55
    8Colorado 207.573.9 24 2.83
    9Columbus204.973.3 15 4.11
    10Dallas204.173.6 16 1.84
    11Detroit201.173.2 15 1.76
    12Edmonton203.373.6
    13Florida201.773.3 8 2.66
    14Los Angeles209.173.9 18 .51
    15Minnesota199.373.2 21 3.03
    16Montreal 201.272.8 9 1.39
    17Nashville 205.773.2 17 3.54
    18New Jersey197.972.4 7 2.69
    19NY Islanders206.072.9 6 2.16
    20NY Rangers204.773.3 8 2.01
    21Ottawa205.173.9 9 3.42
    22Philadelphia198.973.0 6 3.13
    23Pittsburgh197.873.0 8 2.05
    24San Jose 204.273.3 22 3.16
    25St. Louis 205.173.5 17 2.07
    26Tampa Bay201.073.3 8 2.29
    27Toronto 198.772.9 10 5.3
    28Vancouver194.273.1 27 2.16
    29Washington203.073.4 7 1.31
    30Winnipeg 208.274.2 10 2.28

    So he does score a little less vs heavy teams but not horribly so with the exception of LA (and wow do they have his number).Also we need to play more games vs the leafs …. 5.3/60 is just wow.

    Ebs is not a soft player, nor does he shy away from the corners so i don’t know where this storyline has come from. For one, he has missed less games than anyone within this cluster. In fact, the less pointless offensive cycling these guys do, the better. Far too often in the past, the Hall-Nuge-Ebs line would cycle-to-death their shifts, where as Ebs is way more of a threat when he’s got someone like McD, forcing the play towards the net and allowing him to find those scoring pockets.

  140. Gerta Rauss says:

    T-bone off day audio

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=53994

    -looks like Talbot has the net for the near future
    -kind words about Davidson

  141. Yegfoundation says:

    Woodguy,

    This is the Katz plan by all accounts. We now have Nicholson and Chia but more has remained the same than has changed. This leads me to believe that Katz is setting the culture and plan for this franchise.

  142. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy,

    Those aren’t hits, they are average heights.

    The order is alphabetical by opponent.

  143. rickithebear says:

    Zelepukin: Ebs is not a soft player, nor does he shy away from the corners so i don’t know where this storyline has come from. For one, he has missed less games than anyone within this cluster. In fact, the less pointlessoffensive cycling these guys do, the better. Far too often in the past, the Hall-Nuge-Ebs line would cycle-to-death their shifts, where as Ebs is way more of a threat when he’s got someone like McD, forcing the play towards the net and allowing him to find those scoring pockets.

    Watching clark, leach, stoughtons Flin Flon bombers taught me go to the net, protect the net.
    Football, Soccer, and Rugby taught me. Finding open space makes for easier attacking.
    Eberle attacks the box.

    Way back when we discussed sustainable shooting %.
    Langes shots by distance showed me the need to get shots in box and slot.
    Cbs,s shot charts showed players who had a high % of shots in kill zone.
    Therefore sustainable shooting%.
    Cbs,s shots by elevation net chart showed. Open hole and closed hole shots.

    We need to dump low % shooters.
    Unless they are elite D zone, FO %, PK specilists.

  144. Optimism is Foolish says:

    Woodguy,

    Ok here it is again but simplified to just weight and p/60 and sorted by p/60

    1 Los Angeles 209.1 .51
    2 Buffalo 206.9 1.13
    3 Washington 203.0 1.31
    4 Montreal 201.2 1.39
    5 Anaheim 205.7 1.7
    6 Detroit 201.1 1.76
    7 Dallas 204.1 1.84
    8 NY Rangers 204.7 2.01
    9 Pittsburgh 197.8 2.05
    10 St. Louis 205.1 2.07
    11 Vancouver 194.2 2.16
    12 NY Islanders 206.0 2.16
    13 Arizona 208.0 2.23
    14 Winnipeg 208.2 2.28
    15 Tampa Bay 201.0 2.29
    16 Boston 198.9 2.55
    17 Florida 201.7 2.66
    18 New Jersey 197.9 2.69
    19 Colorado 207.5 2.83
    20 Calgary 195.5 2.99
    21 Minnesota 199.3 3.03
    22 Philadelphia 198.9 3.13
    23 San Jose 204.2 3.16
    24 Chicago 197.6 3.55
    25 Ottawa 205.1 3.42
    26 Nashville 205.7 3.54
    27 Columbus 204.9 4.11
    28 Carolina 197.2 4.29
    29 Toronto 198.7 5.3

  145. Lois Lowe says:

    Woodguy,

    I prefer ricki’s measurements of thigh width multiplied by forearm length to determine average player size.

  146. Woodguy says:

    Adam Wu:
    Also, peer review does not require a journal to exist.

    Pretty much any venue that double checks existing work, in any field, is a form a peer review. It may not be as rigorous as formal peer review systems, but so long as the principals involved are doing so in good faith, it is almost always still better than nothing.

    In fact, several examples of informal peer review can be found in the archives of this blog, wherein someone posts an analysis, and someone responds to a re-analysis of the same or similar data.

    Yeah, its done all day long already.

    Not enough of it, but still plenty.

    Just have to know which sites to read and which guys to follow on twitter.

    Its funny, someone asked me to point them in the right direction on a bunch of this stuff and he came back to me and said “I though it was just a handful of people doing this, I had no idea it was almost a sub-industry”

    There’s a ton to read out there.

    Less than there was before many of the innovators got snapped up by teams, but still lots to read.

  147. Woodguy says:

    Optimism is Foolish:
    Woodguy,

    Ok here it is again but simplified to just weight and p/60 and sorted by p/60

    1Los Angeles209.1.51
    2Buffalo206.91.13
    3Washington203.01.31
    4Montreal 201.21.39
    5Anaheim 205.71.7
    6Detroit201.11.76
    7Dallas204.11.84
    8NY Rangers204.72.01
    9Pittsburgh197.82.05
    10St. Louis 205.12.07
    11Vancouver194.22.16
    12NY Islanders206.02.16
    13Arizona208.02.23
    14Winnipeg 208.22.28
    15Tampa Bay201.02.29
    16Boston198.92.55
    17Florida201.72.66
    18New Jersey197.92.69
    19Colorado 207.52.83
    20Calgary195.52.99
    21Minnesota199.33.03
    22Philadelphia198.93.13
    23San Jose 204.23.16
    24Chicago 197.63.55
    25Ottawa205.13.42
    26Nashville 205.73.54
    27Columbus204.94.11
    28Carolina 197.24.29
    29Toronto 198.75.3

    Thanks!!!

    Really appreciate that.

    Much easier to read.

  148. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Woodguy,

    Those aren’t hits, they are average heights.

    The order is alphabetical by opponent.

    See, this why I need help.

  149. Woodguy says:

    Optimism is Foolish:
    Woodguy,

    Ok here it is again but simplified to just weight and p/60 and sorted by p/60

    1Los Angeles209.1.51
    2Buffalo206.91.13
    3Washington203.01.31
    4Montreal 201.21.39
    5Anaheim 205.71.7
    6Detroit201.11.76
    7Dallas204.11.84
    8NY Rangers204.72.01
    9Pittsburgh197.82.05
    10St. Louis 205.12.07
    11Vancouver194.22.16
    12NY Islanders206.02.16
    13Arizona208.02.23
    14Winnipeg 208.22.28
    15Tampa Bay201.02.29
    16Boston198.92.55
    17Florida201.72.66
    18New Jersey197.92.69
    19Colorado 207.52.83
    20Calgary195.52.99
    21Minnesota199.33.03
    22Philadelphia198.93.13
    23San Jose 204.23.16
    24Chicago 197.63.55
    25Ottawa205.13.42
    26Nashville 205.73.54
    27Columbus204.94.11
    28Carolina 197.24.29
    29Toronto 198.75.3

    Now here’s the million dollar question:

    “Do most scorers light up the lesser lights?”

    I think intuitively, its yes.

    Would be interesting to look at high end guys like Stamkos, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin etc.

    Those guys are all EC guys, would need some from each Conference to get better samples.

    I have no idea how you got the data you did…..

  150. AsiaOil says:

    If you look at the last 2 years Ebs performance against the “heavy” teams it is much worse than his career numbers as I outlined a couple of days ago. The difference is pronounced. I would speculate this is related to his separation from Hall. Also a big home/away difference over the past 2 years. Did you not see Ebs get absolutely crushed by buff time after time? That is normal against bigger teams if he chooses to engage physically. He’s a splendid little offensive player but needs the cover of a much larger top 9 than the oilers can provide with CMD and RNH already in the lineup. The last 2 weeks is utterly illustrative:

    7-3-10 +7 vs CLB, OTT, TOR
    1-0-1 -4 vs MTL NJD WIN

    Not a bad player – in fact he has elite shooting skills – but he’s a bad fit for us as the top 6 is currently constructed. So trade him or trade the other finesse players like CMD or RNH (obviously crazy) but you don’t win with all of them.

    Optimism is Foolish:
    Trading Eberle ……I have heard several times that we won’t win unless we can score vs the heavy teams and Eberle is too much a cream puff to do so.I personally have been on the trade Ebs bandwagon as we need to give to get but not so much anymore.I ran down the splits for his career vs the other teams to see how he does vs the big boys.I will let you draw your own conclusions but I would prefer he goes no where any more.His Career points/60 is at 2.56 and here is the list of head to heads.TeamsWt Ht GP p/60
    1Anaheim 205.773.6 19 1.7
    2Arizona208.074.0 23 2.23
    3Boston198.973.3 8 2.55
    4Buffalo206.973.4 6 1.13
    5Calgary195.573.2 28 2.99
    6Carolina 197.272.7 8 4.29
    7Chicago 197.673.4 20 3.55
    8Colorado 207.573.9 24 2.83
    9Columbus204.973.3 15 4.11
    10Dallas204.173.6 16 1.84
    11Detroit201.173.2 15 1.76
    12Edmonton203.373.6
    13Florida201.773.3 8 2.66
    14Los Angeles209.173.9 18 .51
    15Minnesota199.373.2 21 3.03
    16Montreal 201.272.8 9 1.39
    17Nashville 205.773.2 17 3.54
    18New Jersey197.972.4 7 2.69
    19NY Islanders206.072.9 6 2.16
    20NY Rangers204.773.3 8 2.01
    21Ottawa205.173.9 9 3.42
    22Philadelphia198.973.0 6 3.13
    23Pittsburgh197.873.0 8 2.05
    24San Jose 204.273.3 22 3.16
    25St. Louis 205.173.5 17 2.07
    26Tampa Bay201.073.3 8 2.29
    27Toronto 198.772.9 10 5.3
    28Vancouver194.273.1 27 2.16
    29Washington203.073.4 7 1.31
    30Winnipeg 208.274.2 10 2.28

    So he does score a little less vs heavy teams but not horribly so with the exception of LA (and wow do they have his number).Also we need to play more games vs the leafs …. 5.3/60 is just wow.

  151. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    T-bone off day audio

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=53994

    -looks like Talbot has the net for the near future
    -kind words about Davidson

    Matty: “Do you like Hendricks better on the wing or center”

    McLellan turbo answers : “Wing”

    Tells you how much he doesn’t trust Lander.

  152. Optimism is Foolish says:

    Woodguy,

    with a calculator lol

    I agree however and will take a look into it a bit further. A few teams that ebs did light up surpised me however ….. Nashville and chicago primarily

  153. Evilas says:

    blainer,

    Severson is a 6’2″ 200lb 22 year old RD with 104 NHL games under his belt. He has more points in fewer games than Andy Greene or Adam Larsson this season and he has a cannon of a shot. He isn’t Nikitin, he is still developing. I am looking for targets of opportunity that wouldn’t cost an arm and a leg, but have the potential to become bonafide. Maybe he isn’t a good fit, but I do see him as a good PP and 2nd pairing option.

    He was PB’d for 3 games and was brought back for the Edm game. He was one of the goats on the Eberle goal. But he is back in and playing very well.
    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/Devils-Make-It-Three-In-A-Row-As-Kinkaid-Shuts-Out-Kings/159/74770

    Do you have any suggestions?

    Woodguy,
    Between Connor Murphy and Michael Stone, the Yotes would likely want to hang on to Murphy more, but I can’t see them in a position to let them walk or deal them. I think the play is to find an EC D man, otherwise it will be a major overpay.

  154. Cahoon says:

    If the Oilers do what the Oilers do best (win the lottery), do you think an OEL Matthews trade could get done?

    At the risk of sounding like HF boards, then you trade Nurse for Hamonic.

    You get:

    OEL-Hamonic
    Klef-Sekera
    Davidson-Fayne/Reinhart/Gryba

    Without touching our forwards, and what would be our top pair before is a VERY solid 2nd pairing.

  155. highgloveside says:

    LT, Couldn’t help but notice Nurse wasn’t in your lineup. You think he needs a year in the AHL or are you trading him. I think next year he should be a 15 min 3rd pairing player.

    I think you could get Harmonic for Pouliot and Davidson because of destination limitations Snow has, keep Eberle and add Lee and Neilsen.

    Then try to get John Carlson for our 1st round pick to be PP QB. Washington will have cap issues due to resigning Johansson, Orlov and Wilson and have a plethera of dmen.

    Lee – McDavid – Eberle
    Hall – Nuge – Draisaitl
    Kassian – Neilsen – Yakapov
    Hendricks – Letesu – Pakarenin

    Sekera – Carlson
    Kefbom – Harmonic
    Reinhart – Nurse

    If Oilers are not sure about Reinhart, you could pick up a cheap veteran UFA quite easily like Liles or Willie Mitchel to strengthen it up.

  156. frjohnk says:

    Optimism is Foolish:
    Trading Eberle ……I have heard several times that we won’t win unless we can score vs the heavy teams and Eberle is too much a cream puff to do so.I personally have been on the trade Ebs bandwagon as we need to give to get but not so much anymore.I ran down the splits for his career vs the other teams to see how he does vs the big boys.I will let you draw your own conclusions but I would prefer he goes no where any more.His Career points/60 is at 2.56 and here is the list of head to heads.TeamsWt Ht GP p/60
    1Anaheim 205.773.6 19 1.7
    2Arizona208.074.0 23 2.23
    3Boston198.973.3 8 2.55
    4Buffalo206.973.4 6 1.13
    5Calgary195.573.2 28 2.99
    6Carolina 197.272.7 8 4.29
    7Chicago 197.673.4 20 3.55
    8Colorado 207.573.9 24 2.83
    9Columbus204.973.3 15 4.11
    10Dallas204.173.6 16 1.84
    11Detroit201.173.2 15 1.76
    12Edmonton203.373.6
    13Florida201.773.3 8 2.66
    14Los Angeles209.173.9 18 .51
    15Minnesota199.373.2 21 3.03
    16Montreal 201.272.8 9 1.39
    17Nashville 205.773.2 17 3.54
    18New Jersey197.972.4 7 2.69
    19NY Islanders206.072.9 6 2.16
    20NY Rangers204.773.3 8 2.01
    21Ottawa205.173.9 9 3.42
    22Philadelphia198.973.0 6 3.13
    23Pittsburgh197.873.0 8 2.05
    24San Jose 204.273.3 22 3.16
    25St. Louis 205.173.5 17 2.07
    26Tampa Bay201.073.3 8 2.29
    27Toronto 198.772.9 10 5.3
    28Vancouver194.273.1 27 2.16
    29Washington203.073.4 7 1.31
    30Winnipeg 208.274.2 10 2.28

    So he does score a little less vs heavy teams but not horribly so with the exception of LA (and wow do they have his number).Also we need to play more games vs the leafs …. 5.3/60 is just wow.

    Good stuff.
    EBERLE scores less against the big, tough defensive teams, that I’m not surprised.

    But I’d bet the other elite scorers see their numbers go down as well.

    And EBERLE has done this without a top pairing D man 100%. This is something a lot of the elite scorers know nothing of.

    And he has done this on some nights early in the rebuild when Ryan Jones and Lenny Petrell were also part of the RW depth. Fuck me. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out which best defensive players the opposing coach would send out against EBERLE and friends.

    Throughout this walk in the wilderness, EBERLE has many times been one of the few shining lights, even against the tough teams.

    I’m a huge EBERLE fan but if he is part of the deal that goes to provide balance I’m fine with that.

    We just can’t lose the deal.

  157. Woodguy says:

    Optimism is Foolish:
    Woodguy,

    with a calculator lol

    I agree however and will take a look into it a bit further.A few teams that ebs did light up surpised me however ….. Nashville and chicago primarily

    Rinne hasn’t been good for 4 years. Seriously, he’s been below average for 4 years. Killing the Preds this year as they are dominate in most categories except goaltending.

    CHI likes to run and gun with EDM. Also often kick the shit out of them so lots of score effects would be my guess + the Gagner game. Ebs also got 4 points in 19:08 on Gagner 8pt night. That’s gonna help the scoring rates.

  158. blainer says:

    Evilas:
    blainer,

    Severson is a 6’2″ 200lb 22 year old RD with 104 NHL games under his belt.He has more points in fewer games than Andy Greene or Adam Larsson this season and he has a cannon of a shot.He isn’t Nikitin, he is still developing.I am looking for targets of opportunity that wouldn’t cost an arm and a leg, but have the potential to become bonafide.Maybe he isn’t a good fit, but I do see him as a good PP and 2nd pairing option.

    He was PB’d for 3 games and was brought back for the Edm game.He was one of the goats on the Eberle goal.But he is back in and playing very well.
    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/Devils-Make-It-Three-In-A-Row-As-Kinkaid-Shuts-Out-Kings/159/74770

    Do you have any suggestions?

    Woodguy,
    Between Connor Murphy and Michael Stone, the Yotes would likely want to hang on to Murphy more, but I can’t see them in a position to let them walk or deal them.I think the play is to find an EC D man, otherwise it will be a major overpay.

    We wlll need to trade for Shats or Hamonic.

    I get what you are saying about Severson but for me I am wary on trading for D from the east save for harmonic based on G’s numbers on how well he has played against the west.

    Any player getting scratched just sets off warning signs for me after NN.

    One game maybe but three says there is a problem. I also think we need to aim higher although New jersey does have Larsson.

  159. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    For that last goddam time quit yelling EBERLE at me!!!!!!

  160. Professor Q says:

    limit:
    Nylander is not small, he’s 6-0 and can handle himself around the boards. He’s a dynamic player, like a Voracek.
    Strome is the captain and catalyst for DeBrincat and Raddysh.Remember DeBrincat had McDavid last year. He gets roughed up a lot and may have concussion risk down the road. Style-wise like a Ty Rattie.

    They actually rarely played together. DeBrincat has the attitude of a Downie/Kassian/de la Rose type, however, with a much smaller body and more dynamic scoring touch.

    But yes, Strome, DeBrincat, and McDavid rarely played on the same line as each other. I don’t know if that has stayed the same this year (minus McDavid, obviously).

  161. Woodguy says:

    Evilas,

    Check back to this thread later.

    When I get a minute I’ll do NJD too.

    Its all at waronice.com

    Amazing site that is being shut in a month due to the main people behind it being hired by NHL teams.

  162. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy:
    frjohnk,

    For that last goddam time quit yelling EBERLE at me!!!!!!

    But what if yelling EBERLE means he scores a goal?

  163. Lowetide says:

    highgloveside:
    LT, Couldn’t help but notice Nurse wasn’t in your lineup.You think he needs a year in the AHL or are you trading him.I think next year he should be a 15 min 3rd pairing player.

    I have him as next up, just like this season. The Oilers are going to need to overstock the blue because of Klefbom and other injury concerns. I have no doubt Nurse plays 70 games in the NHL next season.

  164. Evilas says:

    blainer,

    I was looking at trade partners for off-loading Yakupov (and Fayne & Korpikoski) and figured NJ due to their need for a top 6 RW. I think Severson brings more to the table than Fayne, but they know Fayne and he is totally suited to their system.

    The reason for being PB’d comes down to his inexperience and still trying to find his way, and to your point it looks like they have really reduced his minutes in the New Year and is likely playing 3rd pairing, when he was probably in the 2nd pairing to start the season. He also doesn’t play any PP minutes, which surprises me given his resume in the WHL and the lack of O on this roster.

    It looks like he has the ability to get shots off though, but maybe I am off the mark here. Ultimately it does look like he might be a year or two away yet from becoming a very good NHL Dman.

  165. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks again Darcy, cheers!

  166. blainer says:

    Evilas:
    blainer,

    I was looking at trade partners for off-loading Yakupov (and Fayne & Korpikoski) and figure NJ due to their need at top 6 RW.I think Severson brings more to the table than Fayne.

    The reason for being PB’d comes down to his inexperience and still trying to find his way, itlooks like they have really reduced his minutes and is likely playing 3rd pairing, when he was 2nd pairing to start the season.He also doesn’t play any PP minutes, which surprises me given his resume in the WHL and the lack of O on this roster.

    It looks like he has the ability to get shots off though, but maybe I am off the mark here.It does look like he might be a year or two away yet from becoming a good NHL Dman.

    I dunno maybe he would be good. WG is gonna put up the numbers soon for NJ.. will be interesting to see.

    It’s rare but sometimes there is a steal f you catch a player just before he breaks out.

    We have to something that much is certain.

  167. Halfwise says:

    Professor Q: But what if yelling EBERLE means he scores a goal?

    JULTZ!! JULTZ!! JULTZ!!

    (tap tap. Is this thing on? tap tap)

  168. Optimism is Foolish says:

    Woodguy,

    as a comparison for eberles head to head stats I chose an offensive winger from a smaller team. Now i am not directly comparing Kane to Ebs, just their production vs other teams.
    Kane has a career p/60 of 3.08 and will show the +/- from the avg for each team over their careers

    Kane Team Ebs
    -.63 Ana -.86
    +.59 Arz -.23
    -.7 Bos -.01
    -.58 Buf -1.43
    +.71 Cgy +.43
    -2.32 Car +.73
    n/a Chi +.99
    -.24 Col +.27
    +.22 Cbj +1.55
    +.96 Dal -.72
    -.49 Det -.8
    +1.2 Edm n/a
    +1.07 Flo +.1
    +.19 La -2.05
    -.36 Min +.47
    -.58 Mon -1.17
    -.36 Nas +.98
    -1.19 NJ +.13
    +1.56 NYI -.4
    -.88 NYR -.55
    -.85 Ott +.86
    -.44 Phi +.57
    -.71 Pit -.51
    -.55 Sjs +.6
    -.05 StL -.49
    +1.54 TbL -.27
    +2.1 Tor +2.43
    -.39 Van -.5
    -1.07 Wsh -1.25
    +.24 Wpg -.28

    Alot of similarities when the two are compared.

  169. Woodguy says:

    NJD

    HDSC%
    Eric.Gelinas 55.46
    David.Schlemko 51.56
    Damon.Severson 49.6
    Adam.Larsson 47.57
    John.Moore 46.61
    Jon.Merrill 46.38
    Andrew.Greene 44.98

    Interesting that Andy Greene, their best Dman is lowest. Last year he was over 50%

    Its also interesting that last year Greene’s CF% was 2.5% better with Severson in 471min than Larsson in 717min.

    Greene is 33 and might need more help to keep it up.

    HDSCF/60
    Eric.Gelinas 9.47
    Damon.Severson 9.25
    John.Moore 9.23
    David.Schlemko 8.45
    Adam.Larsson 8.02
    Andrew.Greene 7.68
    Jon.Merrill 7.25

    Man this is a low event team.

    HDSCA/60
    Eric.Gelinas 7.61
    David.Schlemko 7.93
    Jon.Merrill 8.38
    Adam.Larsson 8.84
    Andrew.Greene 9.39
    Damon.Severson 9.4
    John.Moore 10.57

    QC TOIT
    Andrew.Greene
    Adam.Larsson
    John.Moore
    Damon.Severson
    David.Schlemko
    Eric.Gelinas
    Jon.Merrill

    Severson looks like a guy you’d want on your 3rd pairing.

    Decent PP option, not great.

    I wonder if you could get him for Yak?

  170. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks again for this. Yes that’s what I was thinking. I will add my proposal below.

  171. AsiaOil says:

    They are desperate for any kind of offensive talent – and we need RHD – so it may be a fit since he’s not a top pair guy. Not the kind of return you want for a 1OV but we did that to ourselves.

    Woodguy

    I wonder if you could get him for Yak?

  172. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil:
    They are desperate for any kind of offensive talent – and we need RHD – so it may be a fit since he’s nota top pair guy. Not the kind of return you want for a 1OV but we did that to ourselves.

    Agreed all points.

  173. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    I have posted this before, but I think these are the types of moves that could move this thing forward. There is no way that Chiarelli moves all these players at the deadline, but maybe between the deadline and the draft….Regarding RFA’s, I had thought of Darren Helm, but I think Stewart is more of Chiarelli’s player-type.

    At the draft:
    I think Eberle is an excellent player, but I move him before RNH, it makes zero sense to move our Datsyuk, when the other centers have less than 100 GP of NHL experience…. that being said Ebs should be the piece to acquire Hamonic. I strongly believe Hamonic is one of the top 30 Dmen in the NHL right now (not elite, but still one of the best puck-moving defensive Dmen).

    I propose Eberle + Musil + 2016 1st for Hamonic + Anders Lee (NYI to retain $1,000,000 for 2 yrs) + 2016 1st & 2017 2nd.

    At the deadline or the draft: Fayne, Korpikoski and Yakupov to NJ for Damon Severson, Reece Scarlett (young RD), Ryan Clowe’s Contract, NJD to retain $1,000,000 (it is an albatross for 2 years, but it runs out in time for McDavid’s next contract, plus there could be a buy-out option due to the Canadian dollar) and a 2nd round pick

    Purcell for a 2nd or 3rd round pick
    Schultz for a 3rd
    Hendricks for a 3rd or 4th
    Gryba for a 5th or a 6th
    Letestu for a 5th or 6th
    Ference (cap relief) to Arizona for a 7th

    UFAs:
    1. Stamkos max offer $8.5 million x 5yrs (I am deluded and I have convinced myself that he wants to play with McDavid) Alternatives: Okposo, Backes, Staal, Perron
    2. Stewart $2 million x 2 yrs – he has speed and skill and is more productive than Kassian, but at the same price point

    Additional thoughts -I do not target Shattenkirk or Vatanen due to price point, Klefbom will become what they are, Severson will increase his production on this roster at a fraction of the cost

    Brandon Davidson is found money, he does not get moved, this would be a serious mistake

    Lucic is too expensive and would want too much term and in 2-3 years he will be worn down as this is typical with his player type, while Pouliot is an incredibly effective forward (he is our forward version of Davidson)

    I thought that moving Klefbom, given his injury history would be a good move, but the guy is ONLY 22. Even 60 games/year is valuable, I don’t move him, he is needed. Maybe if Nurse and Reinhart become effective, he can be moved after a couple of years and if the injuries continue.

    _______________________________________
    FORWARDS
    B. Pouliot (4,000,000) — C. McDavid (3,867,500) — S. Stamkos (8,500,000)
    T. Hall (6,000,000) — L. Draisaitl (3, 492,500) — R. Nugent-Hopkins (6,000,000)
    C. Stewart (2,000,000) — A. Lee (2,750,000)— Z. Kassian (1,925,000*)
    A. Slepyshev (1,525,0000) — B. Yakimov (842,500) — I. Pakarinen (871,750*)
    DEFENCE
    O. Klefbom (4,167,000) — T. Hamonic (3,857,142)
    A. Sekera (5,500,000) — B. Davidson (731,250*)
    D. Nurse — (863,333) — D. Severson (605,833)
    GOAL.
    C. Talbot (4,166,666) — L. Brossoit (725,083*)
    Extras
    J. Khaira (875,000)— G. Reinhart (863,333) — T. Pitlick (837,375*)
    LTIR
    R.Clowe (3,850,000)
    *Estimated 10% salary increase, Davidson at 25%
    Total Cap: $68,816,265 – still not under the potential $4,000,000 cap drop, I know, but if the cap drops, you have to figure there will have to be a buy-out option.

  174. Evilas says:

    Also, for those who think you don’t trade Selanne for Hamonic, well we have neither right now and we need one RIGHT NOW. Instead of Hamonics we’ve been drafting Marincins, Musils, Simpsons, Leleggias and Gernats. In this instance you have to trade for them and at the same time stock the prospect cupboards.

    These moves give the Oilers the Following picks:
    2016 1st (NYI) 3 – 2nds 3 -3rds + whatever the other bring, plus NJ’s 2017 2nd to replace the one we lose

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