SUPPLY AND DEMAND

When it comes to estimating approximate trade value for defensemen, there is an enormous deadline kicker. An NHL team looking to go deep into the playoffs must plan to overcome significant injuries at the position. Remember the Buffalo Sabres in 2006? They were running out AHL guys in the semi’s because that is all they had left by that point in the year.

Into that scenario we add a weird year in which the sellers are few and the buyers are double. It is a perfect storm for a team with extra blue—and Edmonton has three bags full (Schultz, Gryba, Fayne) by my estimate. We are reaching a point where the reporting media is finding the range on the available pieces and the richness at defense simply does not exist:

  • Mark Lazerus, Chicago Sun-Times: The smart move would be to get a winger. Seemingly half the league is in the market for a defenseman, and the price could be too high for the Hawks to compete for the likes of Vancouver’s Dan Hamhuis, Edmonton’s Justin Schultz, or Calgary’s Kris Russell. Source.

I am thinking the price is a third-round pick, and folks that is not high—many players fetch greater in a more typical year. Here are some unusual trade deadline deals that raised (my) eyebrows (it is a unibrow) from last season:

  • Anaheim traded D Ben Lovejoy to Pittsburgh for D Simon Despres. Exhibit A in terms of weird return for veteran defenders. The Penguins knew and liked Lovejoy, perhaps offering insight into Mark Fayne’s possible destination. The deal was a wash financially, with Lovejoy having one year left on his deal at $1.1 million and Simon Despres with another year at $900,000.
  • St. Louis trades D Ian Cole to Pittsburgh for D Robert Bortuzzo and 2016 seventh-round pick. I didn’t like this trade for Bortuzzo and his numbers this year (27, 1-0-1 12:43 TOI) reflect his status as an end-of-the-roster type. Cole (45, 0-4-4 17:54) has played a greater role and I like his future far more.
  • Edmonton trades D Jeff Petry to the Montreal Canadiens for a second-round pick (Jonas Siegenthaler) and a fourth-round pick (Caleb Jones). When you are trading a bona fide top 4D this isn’t enough, but it happened and I am listing it to show the wide range of values at the deadline. No disrespect to the picks, but Simon Despres would have been a far more useful return.

In each case, I was flummoxed. Despres, Cole and (especially) Petry should have fetched more (well, Petry should have been signed) for the teams dealing them. The deadline does some crazy things, and with three defenders in play (I believe that to be the case) we will see how this shakes down.

TRADE DEADLINE BLUE

trade deadline blue

This is sorted by CorsiRel (I am old fashioned, this is the best metric for me) and shows all three man as having some value to an NHL team. Gryba is a depth guy, but if Matt Greene can play in the postseason then the big man can, too. Fayne is a guy who doesn’t deliver a lot with the puck on his stick, but for me he is an extremely useful defenseman. I hope Edmonton keeps him, but cannot imagine an NHL scout failing to write something home about No. 5 and his effectiveness. The contract (two years remaining) is a hurdle, but the Oilers waived him early in the season and maybe they are willing to retain cap for those two years.

And that brings us to Justin Schultz. His 5×5/60 number this season is poor, would have been better to deal him last year (0.77) or in 2013-14 (0.89). No NHL team can compress trade value like the Oilers, and Schultz is the latest and a spectacular example.

One major item we cannot factor into this deadline: The impact of lack of supply. For Lazerus to be mentioning Schultz this late in the process may be a tell. Two weeks to go, pray the pack stays close to the playoffs and the Oilers head into February 29 with three trade chips from the blue.

  • Note: I would not trade Fayne. He is one of the four best defensemen on the team, and I suspect the same will be true in October 2016.

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102 Responses to "SUPPLY AND DEMAND"

  1. Melman says:

    Great post LT – I had a good chuckle at CorsiRel beng “old-fashioned”!

    it’ll be interesting to see where the players go and potential returns. I wonder with Hossa’s injury if Chi has any eyes on Purcell. $ retained might bump the rerun up a round.

  2. rickithebear says:

    2nd pair d in EC.
    3rd pair on Conf finalist in west.

  3. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    If Fayne is still one of the top-4 blue liners on the Oilers in October 2016, then the Oilers’s playoff drought will likely extend into the new building.

    From what I’ve seen this year, Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson are all better than Fayne right now (YMMV but I think this is pretty fair). If Fayne is still number 4 in the batting order, then Chia will have failed at bringing in one more competent top-4 D. That will not only lead to another difficult season, but that will be a big damn down arrow for Chia.

  4. zatch says:

    I see Gryba netting far more than one would expect. Guys like him always seem overvalued and I’m sure someone will want him for their bottom pair. 3rd straight up? 4th and a 7th?

  5. fifthcartel says:

    Listening to Rishaug this morning saying he thinks they’ll try and re-sign Gryba worries me.

    Ideally you want Davidson-Nurse on the third-pairing next year (or Nurse-Davidson) but adding Gryba back to next year’s defense leaves a lot of defense ‘set’ to return, which makes me think they’ll retain on Fayne or trade him for a forward with a bad contract.

  6. slopitch says:

    The Oilers need D who make better decisions with the puck. You CANNOT mix forwards who aren’t very good at puck retrieval with dmen who aren’t very good at making a pass.

    I think one of Gryba or Fayne need to go for next year. Id dump Fayne and keep Gryba personally. And Id chose not to resign Schultz so if you can get value for him, do it. They have all but grenaded any value he had this year.

    For next year Id go

    1) find this guy
    2) Klefbom
    3) Sekera
    4) Nurse
    5) Davidson
    6/7) Reinhart/Gryba

    And I would have Nuge, Eberle, Yak and the lottery pick in play to make it happen. Obviously you prefer to keep the Nuge but I’m not willing to piss away another year of McDavid’s ELC.

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT, but I’m confused: “When it comes to estimating approximate trade value for defensemen, there is an enormous deadline kicker”

    – Then LT says: “In each case, I was flummoxed. Despres, Cole and (especially) Petry should have fetched more (well, Petry should have been signed) for the teams dealing them”

    – So is the deadline a good time in terms of trading if you are the team that is rebuilding, or is it a good time for teams that can get assets for relatively low value?

    – Based on nuthin’, I assumed that teams on rebuilds get relative good value in terms of draft picks for trading players to teams who want to win, because there are more teams trying to win than lose at trade deadline, so there is a premium based on the competition for a small-set of players

  8. kinger_OIL says:

    slopitch,

    – This team isn’t a playoff team next year if you have Nurse (or Davidson) pencilled in, and counted on as your #4, unless your #1 is a true #1D stud @ 28mins/gm, and we aren’t going to get one..

    – On a playoff team, 2 of Nurse/Griff/Davidson need to be 5/6/7, ideally partnered with a vet > Fayne, combined with some specific time in the minors, as all three are still on their ELC

  9. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – I’m confused: LT says “When it comes to estimating approximate trade value for defensemen, there is an enormous deadline kicker”

    – Then LT says: “In each case, I was flummoxed. Despres, Cole and (especially) Petry should have fetched more (well, Petry should have been signed) for the teams dealing them”

    Should have explained better, apologies. The Pittsburgh Penguins entered the deadline looking for help—the were the team pursuing the talent. They overpaid.

    St. Louis (as I saw it) were the aggressor and looking for a tougher player, and overpaid. Kind of like the time Edmonton traded Tom Gilbert for Nick Schultz, thus acquiring fewer dimensions and paying more than they should have.

    Edmonton (as I saw it) were the aggressor, because of their own stupidity.

    In each case, the aggressor (pursuee) overpaid in a way I think is unique to the deadline.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    slopitch: 1) find this guy
    2) Klefbom
    3) Sekera
    4) Nurse
    5) Davidson
    6/7) Reinhart/Gryba

    Do you have Nurse ahead of Davidson and Gryba?
    He’s not you know.
    He’s an AHLer.
    Reinhart too.
    The Oilers need better than that if they don’t want to piss away another year of McDavid’s ELC.

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide,

    – I get it: don’t pursue at deadline if you want value, and don’t be dumb. Teams desperate to get better at deadline can’t help themselves but “persue”. So Oil: find teams who want to persue you!

  12. Woogie63 says:

    small, tiny point …. Shultz, Fayne and Gryba are much better than anyone we have to replace them with.

    a 3rd, 4th or 5th rounder will would be very cold comfort next Family Day, if the team is not better.

  13. Bruce McCurdy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Listening to Rishaug this morning saying he thinks they’ll try and re-sign Gryba worries me.

    Ideally you want Davidson-Nurse on the third-pairing next year (or Nurse-Davidson) but adding Gryba back to next year’s defense leaves a lot of defense ‘set’ to return, which makes me think they’ll retain on Fayne or trade him for a forward with a bad contract.

    i fully expect the Oilers to sign Gryba or a Gryba-type. Chiarelli identified heavy / heavy-on-their-stick type players as a priority right off the hop, & one of his first moves was the exchange of Marincin for Gryba which seemed to be exactly on point. Some would say the Oilers gave up a better d-man that they got, but Chia obviously thought otherwise. Judging from usage McLellan is happy with him & is leaning on him more & more as the season wears on.

    We have no idea of the state of negotiations & whether Gryba is looking for McQuaid money or term for that matter. I would think the time for such negotiations is now, & that an extension will either happen before the deadline or he will be dealt. I recall rumours that Oilers were interested in signing McQuaid just before the draft, Boston panicked & locked him up so Chia dealt for Gryba the next day. One things for sure I’d rather have Eric Gryba at $1.25 MM than Adam McQuaid at $2.75 (times 4).

    I for one am not going to lose a lot of sleep over it either way. I do like the player more than most on this board seem to, but he’s not exactly irreplaceable. I do think he would be harder to replace than some might suppose, however, & for certain that Chia would *want* a replacement of similar type. I suspect his idea of “heavy” is “man-strength, hair-on-his-ass heavy”, not a role that Nurse is quite ready to fill just yet.

  14. Mr DeBakey says:

    kinger_OIL: Nurse/Griff/Davidson need to be 5/6/7, ideally partnered with a vet > Fayne, combined with some specific time in the minors, as all three are still on their ELC

    Not arguing with your point, but Davidson would have to pass through waivers.

  15. TNT says:

    If MacTavish was the GM of another team, does anyone think he would try to acquire Justin Shultz?

  16. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy: We have no idea of the state of negotiations & whether Gryba is looking for McQuaid money or term for that matter.

    I talked with Gryba over Christmas.
    At that point the Oilers and him had not had any type of negotiation whatsoever.

  17. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Lowetide,

    – I get it: don’t pursue at deadline if you want value, and don’t be dumb.Teams desperate to get better at deadline can’t help themselves but “persue”.So Oil: find teams who want to persue you!

    I think Chiarelli will do a good job at the deadline, and in summer. He certainly did in Boston, and one hopes he has a better lay of the land now.

  18. Ryan says:

    Where are we at with Goligoski?

    There’s not many available UFA options to improve the blue.

  19. kinger_OIL says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    I thought he was still waiver exempt: 2 out of 3 ain’t bad!

  20. square_wheels says:

    Ryan,

    He’s 30, posted solid offensive numbers on a high power O team and has been healthy the past few years……smells like an huge overpay coming for what is essentially a PP specialist.

    And he’s small, he’s a poor man’s Lubo.

    Might be better off with one year of Campbell IMHO.

  21. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: I talked with Gryba over Christmas.
    At that point the Oilers and him have not had any type of negotiation whatsoever.

    That figures, the first chunk of the season was “show me” time. The window for negotiation is essentially February. I’d be surprised if they haven’t talked by now.

  22. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Ryan:
    Where are we at with Goligoski?

    There’s not many available UFA options to improve the blue.

    The list of 3-4 guys is actually pretty good:

    Demers
    Gologoski
    Yandle
    Coburn
    Hamhuis
    Gunnarsson
    Russell

    An impact guy who will still be useful in the good years is either Demers or a trade. I’d be trading for one and if you can get Demers too then you’re double set until “The Signing” I really do think this cap crunch is going to provide us with one of the RFA righty shot D (Vatanen, Trouba) I would bet they would take a Hamilton type offer or Reinhart+

  23. square_wheels says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    The only 3/4 guys on that list are Goligoski, Demers and Hamhuis for a couple years. The rest have big holes in important parts of their games.

  24. Ryan says:

    square_wheels:
    Ryan,

    He’s 30, posted solid offensive numbers on a high power O team and has been healthy the past few years……smells like an huge overpay coming for what is essentially a PP specialist.

    And he’s small, he’s a poor man’s Lubo.

    Might be better off with one year of Campbell IMHO.

    I think you’re significantly underestimating Goligoski.

    If you’re going to start the argument against him with the fact that he’s 30, you’re not going to be shopping in the free agent bin at the supermarket. 🙂

    He’s 10th in the NHL in even strength toi/60 amoung all defensemen this season.

    He’s scoring 0.95 points per hour at 5v5 which is around 44th in the NHL.

    He’s got a right hand shot.

    Klingberg is probably zooming him a bit…

    Really though, there’s not much out there.

  25. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Ryan: He’s got a right hand shot.

    Woodguy and I went over this recently.

    Goligoski is a left shot.

    Don’t believe everything you see at hockeydb.com

  26. Fog of Warts says:

    My first guess would be that Chia’s entire year-end strategy on defensive supplementation would run through our woeful PP.

    A fixed point in the rhetoric as we dumped Eakins and moved forward was that a barrel full of drunk monkeys could improve our PP over what we had then. So far as I can see, this has not transpired, not even for those games where our PP was blessed with CMD.

    What Eakins and TMac yet share in their joint world-of-PP-hurt is the woeful blueline.

  27. leadfarmer says:

    square_wheels:
    Ryan,

    He’s 30, posted solid offensive numbers on a high power O team and has been healthy the past few years……smells like an huge overpay coming for what is essentially a PP specialist.

    And he’s small, he’s a poor man’s Lubo.

    Might be better off with one year of Campbell IMHO.

    You do know that poor mans Lubo has a big blue bubble in the top left corner of the sledgehammer for years and is the only top pairing d man that you can just get for only money. The only reason you don’t go after him is if he’s got 29 other trucks full of cash waiting for him at his house. His only downside is he picked up a cricket bat before playing water polo or something of the sorts

  28. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Ryan: I think you’re significantly underestimating Goligoski.

    If you’re going to start the argument against him with the fact that he’s 30, you’re not going to be shopping in the free agent bin at the supermarket.

    He’s 10th in the NHL in even strength toi/60 amoung all defensemen this season.

    He’s scoring 0.95 points per hour at 5v5 which is around 44th in the NHL.

    He’s got a right hand shot.

    Really though, there’s not much out there.

    Everything is true, except he is a left shot. He would be a decent pick up if it’s less than Sekera in term and AAV

  29. MrEd says:

    From Scott Zerr at The Nation:

    “The only other two players who deserve to have a look or two are David Musil and Kale Kessy.

    Musil lacks footspeed, that’s no secret. But he is rugged and a gamer, much more so than Reinhart. He’s got some offence in his game with a heavy shot and a willingness to join the rush when able to do so. Musil has had a cup coffee before and there’s no reason he shouldn’t get a thermos of it by April.

    Kessy’s shot would be a gesture if nothing else, a signal to the rest of the prospects that if you show up every night and go above and beyond when called upon, then you will get a chance.”

    I’m in.

    Give Nurce a break and see if Korp will clear.

  30. square_wheels says:

    Ryan,

    No I’m fine with him being 30, but you have to look at who he’s passing the puck to on most nights to weight that EV PPG.

    Solid player, just don’t think he moves the dial enough for what he will command in FA. If were unsure as to whether we have a PP QB ready internally (hint – we don’t), then sign Campbell for one year.

    I’d sign Demers before him but don’t think Tmac was a huge fan considering they traded him for a gritensicle player.

    I took a close look at Goligoski at WOI, he’s a pure O dman that has minimal ability to battle and retrieve lost possession but he skates/passes well. He’d be what we wanted from Schultz but I wouldn’t pay above 5.5M/yr.

  31. Zelepukin says:

    Mr DeBakey: Do you have Nurse ahead of Davidson and Gryba?
    He’s not you know.
    He’s an AHLer.
    Reinhart too.
    The Oilers need better than that if they don’t want to piss away another year of McDavid’s ELC.

    Exactly. How many games do people need to watch before they understand that Davidson is our best D-man next to Klef and Sekera? Seriously.

  32. Ryan says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    Yeah, Jason Demers would also be a nice add.

  33. Ryan says:

    Klima's_Bucket: Woodguy and I went over this recently.

    Goligoski is a left shot.

    Don’t believe everything you see at hockeydb.com

    My bad, thanks.

  34. square_wheels says:

    leadfarmer,

    I like him, don’t misread that. But he struggles to retrieve the puck if the team loses it. He’s not big, Lubo was about 20lbs heavier and could battle, hence the poor mans Lubo comment.

    Goligoski needs to be studied closely, his partner and his top 6 forwards could make his offence and big blue bubble a touch misleading. Pay him in the 5M range and you’ve got 10 other teams he could choose from including the one he’s posting elite #’s with.

    If I’m overpaying for a high offence Dman, if prefer Brent Burns.

    Patience in the flat cap next 2 years means we have to aiming higher.

  35. DRFNsuperstar says:

    square_wheels:
    DRFNsuperstar,

    The only 3/4 guys on that list are Goligoski, Demers and Hamhuis for a couple years. The rest have big holes in important parts of their games.

    Goligoski and Demers are balanced 3’s, Coburn is a legitimate shut down D and Yandle is a legit offensive power play specialist they would probably be a pretty solid second pairing together. You’re right Hamhuis is a balanced #4 for two more years. Gunnarsson and *spits* Russell were throw in 4/5’s

  36. square_wheels says:

    Zelepukin,

    Couldn’t agree more, he’s got the one thing you can’t teach a Dman.

    Calm head, solid tools and that extra Mississippi of patience you just can’t teach.

    He’s beyond found money, magnificent bastard will never pay for beers in any bar I see him in.

  37. Pouzar says:

    Zelepukin: Exactly. How many games do people need to watch before they understand that Davidson is our best D-man next to Klef and Sekera? Seriously.

    Took me 1 exhibition game live view to see he had the goods! 😛

  38. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: You do know that poor mans Lubo has a big blue bubble in the top left corner of the sledgehammer for years and is the only top pairing d man that you can just get for only money.The only reason you don’t go after him is if he’s got 29 other trucks full of cash waiting for him at his house.His only downside is he picked up a cricket bat before playing water polo or something of the sorts

    Yes, this.

    Goligoski plays big minutes and the toughest available competition and has done so for years.

    For the past 8 seasons, you can basically set your watch based upon Goligoski putting up 1 point per hour at evens.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    square_wheels,

    He’s only had one season ever in the negative high danger scoring chance battle at that was a negative one four years ago. He’s been legit before Seguin got there. Dallas’ issue was before this season they had him and scrubs on D for years on top of poor goaltending. They got him help this year finally.

  40. square_wheels says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    But none of them add much of what we need except Goligoski (will get too much), Yandle ( who is useless other than PP, seriously he’s Schultz with a good shot).

    Demer’s I need to look closer at, he is solid but unspectacular offensively but there must be warts for a team like SJ to flip him for a Gryba type. The Sharks don’t make too many deals like this.

    The rest are all meh, better than Gryba, Schultz but not replacing Davidson, Sekera or Klef in the top 4.

    UFA’s are in for a rude awakening this year with the cap holding at this years #.

  41. leadfarmer says:

    Lol at people saying Gogo is a number 3/4. He is a top pairing dman in this league and maybe at the bottom of the #1 d pile. You can say not another lefty, or he will cost a lot, but the guy is legit.

  42. Zelepukin says:

    square_wheels:
    Zelepukin,

    Couldn’t agree more, he’s got the one thing you can’t teach a Dman.

    Calm head, solid tools and that extra Mississippi of patience you just can’t teach.

    He’s beyond found money, magnificent bastard will never pay for beers in any bar I see him in.

    Almost every time the play is around him or when he has the puck, there is a split second where years of incompetence on the backend has you expecting him to do something stupid like overcommit, rifle the puck away without looking but then you realise it’s Davidson and he keeps a level head and more often than not, makes the right, patient decision.

  43. square_wheels says:

    Ryan,

    leadfarmer:
    square_wheels,

    He’s only had one season ever in the negative high danger scoring chance battle at that was a negative one four years ago.He’s been legit before Seguin got there.Dallas’ issue was before this season they had him and scrubs on D for years on top of poor goaltending.They got him help this year finally.

    Yes, agree his EV are solid and he’s always been able to keep up with high end offensive players ( such as Crosby and Malkin).

    I’ve advocated for him as a legitimate top 4 LD, the trouble is he’d have to play ahead of Sekera and Klef which I just don’t see happening from a Cap perspective.

  44. leadfarmer says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    You don’t just stay away from Yandle. You run away. Whoever signs that guy is going to absolutely regret it.

  45. square_wheels says:

    leadfarmer,

    Yes, he’s very legit. Just need to weigh his offence carefully when you pay him expecting he can deliver it as a top pair and without top 6 forwards that don’t feature Seguin/Benn and Crosby/Malkin.

    Before I’d pay him 7M I’d do some homework. A month ago I compared him to Buff and Burns as they have similar offensive fancies, but His takeaway’s are an issue…..he struggles to remove players from the puck.

    Someone will pay him, I just don’t think he’s the guy we should target.

  46. square_wheels says:

    Zelepukin,

    I refer to it as the 1 extra Mississippi, elite D all have it. Same as elite NFL QB’s, it’s just in the DNA.

    The key is just how much does his agent squeeze Chia for ? This is the player some other team is quietly hoping he gets into a tough negotiation with Chia or worse, makes him an offer sheet and fucks our cap.

    If he was on 29 other teams I’d be offer-sheeting him.

  47. DRFNsuperstar says:

    I still think Dallas will be able to sign both Demers and Goligoski (should have before the season) because Klinberg and Seguin are on such beautiful deals…but it will be close, almost 11 mil in goalies, Eakin new deal kicks in next year (almost 4), and Benn will sign his new one to be the highest paid player in the game (I would say 14 mil over 8 years).

  48. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    DRFNsuperstar,

    You don’t just stay away from Yandle.You run away.Whoever signs that guy is going to absolutely regret it.

    Stop it. I’m agreeing with you too much.

    Yandle is a better version of Jultz and we don’t need another 3rd pairing dman who needs shelter let alone a very expensive one.

  49. square_wheels says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    I could see Goligoski getting Buff $$ from someone based on his offence, but it damn well better not be the Oilers.

  50. DRFNsuperstar says:

    square_wheels:
    DRFNsuperstar,

    I could see Goligoski getting Buff $$ from someone based on his offence, but it damn well better not be the Oilers.

    I’d bet on Buffalo doing it. They’d then have:

    Goligoski-Risto
    Gorges-Bogosian
    McCabe-Franson
    Pysyk

  51. DRFNsuperstar says:

    PS. It may be cheating but I suck at math so I love using Hero Charts.

  52. Ryan says:

    square_wheels:
    DRFNsuperstar,

    I could see Goligoski getting Buff $$ from someone based on his offence, but it damn well better not be the Oilers.

    Well, from the list of UFA’s there’s at least Demers and Gogo who can provide real help.

    The Oilers blue needs a significant upgrade for next season unless they want to corner the market on exciting last place hockey and lottery picks for the foreseeable future.

    I would say that we need two top four dman for next season.

    i don’t think we can trade for two without spending too much in assets, so you really have to grab a useful UFA.

  53. leadfarmer says:

    square_wheels:
    DRFNsuperstar,

    I could see Goligoski getting Buff $$ from someone based on his offence, but it damn well better not be the Oilers.

    So how are you fixing that defense. I wouldn’t want to pay him 7.6 mil but if would sign a 6.5 mil a year contract he would be worth every penny. You could trade a lefty for a righty in the future.

  54. Ryan says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    PS. It may be cheating but I suck at math so I love using Hero Charts.

    Weber is sort of the old gold standard of a number one dman around here.

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/NYJKTNFMR?:display_count=yes

    Lately, more so Doughty.

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/YCYBBRFRH?:display_count=no

    Either way, Goligoski doesn’t look like a number 3 on the warrior charts.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan: Well, from the list of UFA’s there’s at least Demers and Gogo who can provide real help.

    The Oilers blue needs a significant upgrade for next season unless they want to corner the market on exciting last place hockey and lottery picks for the foreseeable future.

    I would say that we need two top four dman for next season.

    i don’t think we can trade for two without spending too much in assets, so you really have to grab a useful UFA.

    What’s your read on Demers. What’s he like as a D man. I don’t watch him play much, and playing with Thornton screws advanced stats like crazy. Not many players are in the +80s +90s range and he does it routinely. Like at age 22 Demers was + 121 in the high danger scoring chance battle. Like what are you to do with numbers like that.

  56. stevezie says:

    Ryan,

    I take your point but you under state that Yandle is an ultramega better version of Schultz, so much better that comparing them is silly.

    Not plan A, but this team could really, really use Yandle. I don’t know how you can scoff at that offence .

  57. slopitch says:

    kinger_OIL,

    kinger_OIL:
    slopitch,

    – This team isn’t a playoff team next year if you have Nurse (or Davidson) pencilled in, and counted on as your#4, unless your #1 is a true #1D stud @ 28mins/gm, and we aren’t going to get one..

    – On a playoff team, 2 of Nurse/Griff/Davidson need to be 5/6/7, ideally partnered with a vet > Fayne, combined withsome specific time in the minors, as all three are still on their ELC

    I think this team can make the playoffs next year with a number 1 added to the roster and a healthy Klefbom. That’s 2 top pairing D added since Klef missed most of the year. Add back a health(ier) Nuge/McDavid/Eberle and yes I think its possible.

  58. DRFNsuperstar says:

    leadfarmer: So how are you fixing that defense.I wouldn’t want to pay him 7.6 mil but if would sign a 6.5 mil a year contract he would be worth every penny. You could trade a lefty for a righty in the future.

    Chia could potentially see the “whole” team for 11 games. If Nuge and Klefbom are back by about March 8th. At that point you see what you have. Then make a trade. After that its development. Karlsson, Weber, Subban, Shattenkirk, Brodie weren’t scouted to be #1 D but they developed into them. Defence development is almost as voodoo as goalies. On that note, the more I look at those guys development I would put Nurse and Reinhart to finish the season and go on a playoff run with LB.

  59. MrEd says:

    Sek-xxx
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-xxx

    Is this where we’re at?

  60. slopitch says:

    Mr DeBakey: Do you have Nurse ahead of Davidson and Gryba?
    He’s not you know.
    He’s an AHLer.
    Reinhart too.
    The Oilers need better than that if they don’t want to piss away another year of McDavid’s ELC.

    1) Arguing #4 vs #5 can be a mute point. It could depend on positional strengths or deployment.
    2) Remember how Draisatl looked like a lost AHL player last year? Much like how Nurse does this year? I believe in Nurse and think he’ll flourish next year once he has 100 games under his belt. He will have a year more maturity/development and most importantly coverage from having better defenders on the roster. Note in my post I have the Oilers hypothetically adding a #1 and Klefbom to the roster next year.
    3) I like Davidson plenty.

  61. Oilspill says:

    square_wheels:
    DRFNsuperstar,

    UFA’s are in for a rude awakening this year with the cap holding at this years #.

    e.

    Unless you are a PP or PK specialist and a right handed Dman on a good contract who can play a shutdown role when it really counts..the playoffs. Gryba is 95% gone because he won’t get what he’s worth in Edmonton with the redundancy here. He’s all round better than Fayne and will get near McQuaid/Stoner money. I just don’t know why they are playing him so much.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    stevezie:
    Ryan,

    I take your point but you under state that Yandle is an ultramega better version of Schultz, so much better that comparing them is silly.

    Not plan A, but this team could really, really use Yandle. I don’t know how you can scoff at that offence .

    You take one look at his offense and then look at what he gives up going the other way and realize you are really playing 4 forwards and one d. His points will make him expensive but he gets his teeth kicked in in his own end.

  63. leadfarmer says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    Defensemen development is so voodoo that we really have Klefbom and Sekera as top 4 d. If one of them gets injured you have this year repeat itself next year. You can’t count on Nurse or Reinhart being ready. Davidson is a good fill in for a 4 but would rather have him as a 5 given being a lefty

  64. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: What’s your read on Demers.What’s he like as a D man.I don’t watch him play much, and playing with Thornton screws advanced stats like crazy.Not many players are in the +80s +90s range and he does it routinely.

    Like yourself, I don’t watch him much ever either.

    My sense is that he seems like at least a well-rounded 3/4 dman.

    His possession stats and EV scoring look pretty impressive, but he doesn’t get a big toi push–usually 4rth at evens, 3rd pp option, and 4rth or later for Pk.

    While he’s younger, I think there’s separation favoring Goligoski.

    By the numbers overall, he looks a lot like klefbom (allowing for team effects) with less toi.

  65. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    MrEd:
    Sek-xxx
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-xxx

    Is this where we’re at?

    FWIW, I’m looking at the following as a MINIMUM:

    Sek-Fayne
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-Gryba

    But here’s the caveat… Fayne cannot be the best RD on the team if this team is going to make a playoff push. I would put Fayne as the second pairing RD, except he has looked okay with Sek but not so good with Klef (sorry… no numbers to back up this assertion).

    Maybe it would be easier if I put it like this instead:

    Klef-xxx
    Sek-Fayne
    Davidson-Gryba

    One top-pairing RD (without trading away any of Sek/Klef/Davidson) and a healthy Klef could potentially get the Oilers to the playoffs next year.

    We wait.

  66. DRFNsuperstar says:

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/2/15/nail-yakupov-shouldn-t-be-playing-with-mark-letestu

    That is a good article, why the coaches like Korpikoski and not Yak blows my mind.

    Hendricks-Letestu-Pak
    Kassian-Lander-Yak

    Please let Chia be able to package Korpikoski with Schultz and get a return of anything.

  67. MrEd says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    I agree completely.

    Use LD depth to fill the roster.

    Fayne and Gryba should be retained.

  68. AsiaOil says:

    A playoff team would probably look like this:

    Klef xxx
    Sekera xxx
    Davidson/Nurse/Reinhart Gryba/Fayne

    With the xxx being legit first and second pair RHD. Davidson is found money but he should not start the year in the top 4. Injuries will force that during the year at some point but you don’t want to start there. Enough of guys playing over their head.

    Bottom line is something has to happen with the 3rd pair LHD. They all need that slot and all need to play.

    MrEd:
    Sek-xxx
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-xxx

    Is this where we’re at?

  69. kinger_OIL says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    No:

    Sek-xxx
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-Fayne

    That’s whats needed to start the year: with Griff/Nurse fighting to get on the roster.

  70. murphy says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    It matters so much who they get for that one spot. If its hamonic they cant have fayne and gryba as well, not enough offense there. If they get a vatanen or shattenkirk then fayne is fine to stick around.

    If they do get a hamonic type i see fayne going for a big F with a big contract. If that happens we need a second RHD. What about franson? Not fitting in great in buffalo and is still the same player he was last summer. He could bring the offense we need and acquistion cost shouldnt be high.

  71. stevezie says:

    leadfarmer,

    He has his warts and may nit be worth the money but you are incredibly dismissive of his being one of the best scoring D in the league

  72. Lowetide says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    http://oilersnation.com/2016/2/15/nail-yakupov-shouldn-t-be-playing-with-mark-letestu

    That is a good article, why the coaches like Korpikoski and not Yak blows my mind.

    Hendricks-Letestu-Pak
    Kassian-Lander-Yak

    Please let Chia be able to package Korpikoski with Schultz and get a return of anything.

    It is true, I mentioned it here
    http://lowetide.ca/2016/02/12/just-not-that-into-you/

    The thing I find weird is this: Yakupov is a flawed player, but not fatally so. What is the disconnect here? Is it a language barrier? Cultural? I do not have the answer, but good teams get performance from flawed players.

    They just do.

  73. Bruce McCurdy says:

    square_wheels:
    Zelepukin,

    Couldn’t agree more, he’s got the one thing you can’t teach a Dman.

    Calm head, solid tools and that extra Mississippi of patience you just can’t teach.

    That’s three things. Just saying.

  74. kooler says:

    A lot of talk of Yak being shipped out ahead of Eberle, but I’m confused as to why he’s not why being show cased to drive the price up instead they his Pt/game is running done to nothing….which usually gets you something close to nothing.

    Both Yak and Eberle have paired well with Mcdavid…I think most players will. Dave Lumley had a consecutive goal streak of 12 thanks to Gretzky….it’s going to happen. I think Yak could stay if paired with the right centre, so is

    a Mcdavid/Yak + RNH/Eberle pairing vs a Mcdavid/Eberle + Letestu/Yak pairing that much better?

  75. G Money says:

    Lowetide: The thing I find weird is this: Yakupov is a flawed player, but not fatally so. What is the disconnect here? Is it a language barrier? Cultural? I do not have the answer, but good teams get performance from flawed players.

    I’d have to say that the braintrust appears to have decided that Yak IS a fatally flawed player.

    Same braintrust I’d guess that decided Jultz was Norris-worthy and Petry wasn’t worth $4M.

    Seems once this group decides something, all evidence to the contrary must be wrong (if it’s even considered at all).

    Mind you, that’s no different from many fans.

    But we’re not relying on those fans to make decisions to pull this team out of a decade long stint in the sewer.

    Time to #FreeYakupov from this poisoned well.

    The rest of us meanwhile, wait. At the bottom of that well. Breathing the same poisonous fumes we’ve been breathing the last decade. Hoping Chia brings us oxygen and a rope ladder (not yet convinced he won’t – but then I have to admit, I’m no longer convinced he will either…)

  76. BONVIE says:

    kooler:
    A lot of talk of Yak being shipped out ahead of Eberle, but I’m confused as to why he’s not why being show cased to drive the price up instead they his Pt/game is running done to nothing….which usually gets you something close to nothing.

    Both Yak and Eberle have paired well with Mcdavid…I think most players will. Dave Lumley had a consecutive goal streak of 12 thanks to Gretzky….it’s going to happen.I think Yak could stay if paired with the right centre, so is

    a Mcdavid/Yak + RNH/Eberle pairing vs a Mcdavid/Eberle + Letestu/Yak pairing that much better?

    Thats like asking was there much difference in Kurri/Habschied vs Kurri/Gretzky yes one pair is clearly better. Your practically comparing the worst center in the entire league that is playing regularly with a top 30 center, no thats not obvious.

  77. Johnny skid says:

    G Money: I’d have to say that the braintrust appears to have decided that Yak IS a fatally flawed player.

    Same braintrust I’d guess that decided Jultz was Norris-worthy and Petry wasn’t worth $4M.

    Seems once this group decides something, all evidence to the contrary must be wrong (if it’s even considered at all).

    Mind you, that’s no different from many fans.

    But we’re not relying on those fans to make decisions to pull this team out of a decade long stint in the sewer.

    Time to #FreeYakupov from this poisoned well.

    The rest of us meanwhile, wait.At the bottom of that well.Breathing the same poisonous fumes we’ve been breathing the last decade.Hoping Chia brings us oxygen and a rope ladder (not yet convinced he won’t – but then I have to admit, I’m no longer convinced he will either…)

    watching korpikoski and letestu on the power play while yak playing fourth line is a little puzzling to me.

  78. G Money says:

    Johnny skid: watching korpikoski and letestu on the power play while yak playing fourth line is a little puzzling to me.

    Yes.

    Korpikoski has been a bad player for two straight years now, and this year there is a legitimate argument to be made that he is THE single worst player in the league.

    That Yak is a flawed player still needing to work on many parts of his game is understood.

    Any evidence of reason in his handling disappears when you consider ice time and roles given to him, Blackholikoski, Pakarinen (who I like but he has NO top 6 characteristics in his game, not one, and still isn’t yet even a particularly good bottom 6 forward), and now Lander, who’s fallen off a cliff on both halves of the ice.

    Baffling and bizarre.

    How to we explain the personnel decisions of this team over the last umpteen years?

    Maybe they need to check Kingsway for mold.

  79. Ryan says:

    G Money,

    Where would you play Yakupov?

    Purcell’s exiting stage left, first in line, so it makes sense to keep him in a top six role. With half his salary retained and an expiring contract, a deal should be imminent that brings back a draft pick. Playing him with Letestu would amount to an anti-showcase.

    Eberle is on a six-million dollar contract, struggled to start the season, and a decent bet to bring back a good defenseman during the offseason.

    Once Purcell’s spot opens up, you might be able to move him into a top six role. Until then, there’s no upside to bumping either Purcell or Eberle.

    I don’t think this is a case for a conspiracy theory. Nail Yakupov is not that good of a hockey player. The Oilers brain trust bet incorrectly that Lander was a 3rd line center, RNH is injured, so there are no viable options.

    By the time we trade Purcell, RNH will be returning and unfortunately there still won’t be room for Yakupov to play with a good centre unless they try to create three scoring lines.

    You could play Yakupov with McDavid, maybe Yak goes on a bit of a run, but I doubt the needle on his trade value moves much.

  80. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Maybe you just play Eberle with McDavid for 30 games to pump him and spark Snow’s interest. Yak meshed with McD. Not going to sink top gold coin trade asset in Eberle with Letestu.

    Is McDavid-Yak with Hamonic helping out on the back end better than McD-Eberle?

    unrelated: can’t wait for Schultz to be gone to see what Clendening can do, think he needs a fair shake on this tire fire. maybe he’s useful next year

  81. kooler says:

    BONVIE,

    Unfortunately that’s the pairings coaching staff thinks make the most sense.

  82. Professor Q says:

    I really don’t get this line of thinking.

    “Let’s wait until players play well. Then trade them!”

    Wait…don’t good teams have them play well, and keep them playing well, to play well for their team and help their team do well?

  83. AsiaOil says:

    Yeah it’s getting a bit baffling isn’t it G? Maybe Kevin Lowe is some sort of hockey zombie that infects anyone in the org as they all start doing ISS (incredible stupid shit) within months of joining the organization. I’ve been getting progressively less happy with TMac since Christmas. His overuse of many guys (Korpse, Letestu, Pak, Shultz). TMacs love affair with Letestu makes MacTs Toby Petersen fetish look tame. Nurse should have been sent down at the AS game and his minutes before that were bizarre as well.

    #FreeYakupov……yeah only a fortnight more torment for a kid who deserved none of the BS thrown his way. Feel sorry for him being drafted by such a daft org. I would be at the head of the line trying to pry him out of EDM on the cheap if I was a GM as there is tremendous offensive upside there. The kid has warts but none of them are in the skill, effort or passion for the game categories. I have a pretty good idea why this went down the way it did and it’s not going to change. Just trade him and let me enjoy cheering for him elsewhere like Dubnyk and Petry.

  84. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    I get that Purcell and possibly Eberle are being pumped. That’s not what baffles me.

    I would try Yak at any wing position in the Top 6 before I’d play Pak, Letestu, Korpikoski, Lander at those positions.

    Anything else is full batshit crazy.

    This org is not afraid to go full batshit crazy.

    You never go full batshit crazy.

    AsiaOil,

    I fear DarkAsia may be getting closer to returning!

    ****************

    On a more cheery (for me) note, I’m sitting up late at night on a ‘school night’ because I’m inching closer to the next version of my scripts that will produce the full zillion-column data spreads for every player, and the team.

    Closer to duplicating WOI functionality in other words!

    Sometimes I get grumpy and wonder why the f**k I bother doing this stuff to run it on such a crappy team. I mean, I can just imagine how much better these graphs and tables would look if they were being run on Chicago or LA or WSH data.

  85. Oilspill says:

    Fans can generate all the numbers they want to prove their point. Yak is generally lazy and has real low hockey IQ. He is not smart with the puck and even worse away from it. What proves this? Experience. I don’t need numbers to prove the obvious. Yak is not a victim of any conspiracy. He’s a victim of the inability to adjust to the game that coaches want him to play.

    AsiaOil:
    Yeah it’s getting a bit baffling isn’t it G? Maybe Kevin Lowe is some sort of hockey zombie that infects anyone in the org as they all start doing ISS (incredible stupid shit) within months of joining the organization. I’ve been getting progressively less happy with TMac since Christmas. His overuse of many guys (Korpse, Letestu, Pak, Shultz). TMacs love affair with Letestu makes MacTs Toby Petersen fetish look tame. Nurse should have been sent down at the AS game and his minutes before that were bizarre as well.

    #FreeYakupov……yeah only a fortnight more torment for a kid who deserved none of the BS thrown his way. Feel sorry for him being drafted by such a daft org.I would be at the head of the line trying to pry him out of EDM on the cheap if I was a GM as there is tremendous offensive upside there. The kid has warts but none of them are in the skill, effort or passion for the game categories. I have a pretty good idea why this went down the way it did and it’s not going to change. Just trade him and let me enjoy cheering for him elsewhere like Dubnyk and Petry.

  86. SwedishPoster says:

    Oilspill:
    Fans can generate all the numbers they want to prove their point. Yak isgenerally lazy and hasreal low hockey IQ. He is not smart with the puck and even worse away from it. What proves this? Experience. I don’t need numbers to prove the obvious. Yak is not a victim of any conspiracy. He’s a victim of the inability to adjust to the game that coaches want him to play.

    Yes you are right we should all kneel before your vastly superior hockey knowledge. What you consider to be truth is truly the only truth and therefore must be true.

  87. Oilspill says:

    Watch and understand or don’t understand and rely on others!

  88. stevezie says:

    Oilspill,

    It’s not so much that you’re wrong (many here think you are right), it’s that if you’re right you’re not good at communicating how and why.

    “Trust me, I’m smart” is not really a persuasive argument. It’s not really an argument at all.

  89. frjohnk says:

    Even though I found last games Korpikoski time on PP2 over Yak a bit puzzling, I don’t not think there is some conspiracy to sewer Yak. The reasons the coaches put Korpikoski on the PP could range from playing well ( from what they see) to showcase, but we don’t really know.

    The idea that the coaches are trying to sewer a player for whatever reason is ridiculous. A coach is going to put the best players on the ice that he can. Players can get also get rewarded with more ice time for good play, or if they are being showcased. Players will lose ice time or be put on the ice with inferior players because of numbers.

    I think Yak falls into the last sentence. We have good winger depth and after the top 2 centers, our center depth is horrid. Yak is not be better than Hall, Pouliot, Eberle and not being showcased like Purcell, so Yak is the odd man out.

    I have to wonder if the Oilers would look to keeping all 3 of McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH and then adding another center in the summer. An actual 3rd line center who could fill in on the 2nd line and not be out of place.

    Because Letestu and Hendricks are not cutting it as our bottom 6 centers.

    I would imagine that Yak gets a chance in the top 6 when Purcell gets traded.

  90. JDï™ says:

    G Money,

    You have to test your scripts on shitty data too!

  91. GCW_69 says:

    If the Oilers are going to trade one of Eberle or Yakupov, they should push Purcell out the door ASAP.

    Why? Playing Eberle with McDavid maximizes his value. Playing Yakupov in Purcell’s spot will tell them if he can put up numbers with someone not named McDavid. If he can, his trade value increases as does the Oilers comfort in trading Eberle.

    The session is lost, so why not do what you can to maximize your assets?

  92. frjohnk says:

    GCW_69:
    If the Oilers are going to trade one of Eberle or Yakupov, they should push Purcell out the door ASAP.

    Why? Playing Eberle with McDavid maximizes his value.Playing Yakupov in Purcell’s spot will tell them if he can put up numbers with someone not named McDavid. If he can, his trade value increases as does the Oilers comfort in trading Eberle.

    The session is lost, so why not do what you can to maximize your assets?

    I agree but there may not be any dance partners for Purcell until the trade deadline.

    Some Prospective suitors for a player like Purcell may want to wait until the deadline for salary cap reasons

  93. stevezie says:

    frjohnk,

    The most optimistic reading of the situation is Yak isn’t receiving pp/McDavis time because they are sure they’re keeping him. Eberle, Purcell, and Korpse are all question marks so they need to showcase/investigate them. They aren’t afraid to hurt Yak’s value because they know they’re keeping him and will play him soon enough.

  94. frjohnk says:

    stevezie:
    frjohnk,

    The most optimistic reading of the situation is Yak isn’t receiving pp/McDavis time because they are sure they’re keeping him. Eberle, Purcell, and Korpse are all question marks so they need to showcase/investigate them. They aren’t afraid to hurt Yak’s value because they know they’re keeping him and will play him soon enough.

    Yeah. I have thought that is possible.

    I guess we will see how this all plays out in the next couple of weeks.

  95. Pouzar says:

    Have pitchers and catchers reported yet?

  96. Bruce McCurdy says:

    GCW_69: I don’t not think there is some conspiracy to sewer Yak.

    I see what you did there.

  97. G Money says:

    Oilspill,

    something something ‘low hockey IQ’ something something

  98. G Money says:

    frjohnk: I don’t not think there is some conspiracy to sewer Yak.

    Point being, it’s almost certainly NOT a conspiracy, and calling it that is presumably just an attempt at descrediting by drive-by labeling. [Not that that this is what you’re doing, just noting what that general line of action tends to be motivated by]

    It’s simply incompetence and stubbornness.

    The same incompetence and stubbornness that has left us with four years of Justin Schultz, no Jeff Petry, two C’s (one hurt) and mud to start last season, and on and on it goes.

  99. highgloveside says:

    square_wheels,

    ///you say Yandle is Schultz with a good shot is like saying Byfuglien is Nikitin with better puck rushing skills.

    Over the past 5 years, Yandle is 6th in scoring. Can make end to end rushes, enter the zone and a top 10 first pass. His PPG has been below .50 since 2008.

    Yandle type is exactly what the oilers need to improve the PP and transition the puck to the forwards.

  100. highgloveside says:

    Oilers need to add 2 dmen in top 4.

    They need a top 4 offensive minded PP QB that can greatly improve the PP, the player Schultz has never become. (Yandle/Vatanen/Barrie)

    top pair dman that can do it all and play the minutes (Hamonic, Carlson)

    Having the right defense core alone will make this tea significantly better.

    If you can add power forward for 3rd line an 3rd line centre with size and offensive skill it would be a huge step in the right direction.

  101. BONVIE says:

    highgloveside:
    square_wheels,

    ///you say Yandle is Schultz with a good shot is like saying Byfuglien is Nikitin with better puck rushing skills.

    Over the past 5 years, Yandle is 6th in scoring.Can make end to end rushes, enter the zone and a top 10 first pass.His PPG has been below .50 since 2008.

    Yandle type is exactly what the oilers need to improve the PP and transition the puck to the forwards.

    No i would agree with square wheels assessment he is a higher priced Shultz, and his shot is definitely better.

  102. highgloveside says:

    If the cap drops $4 mill, the teams in the worst position and would have to shed salary because of new contracts kicking in or RFA’s or UFA to resign or replace.

    No UFAs listed below, RFA’s and others

    WSH – Carlson
    ANA – Vatanen
    CHI – Shaw
    COL – Barrie
    DAL – Eakin, Roussel
    LAK – Toffoli
    NSH – Wilson
    PHI – Simmonds, Schenn
    NYR – TJ Miller, Kreider
    STL – Shattinkirk
    TAM (if they sign Stamkos) –
    WSH – Carlson, Wilson
    WPG (budget team)

    Definitely some potential players that could greatly help the Oilers

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