THE SUN’S SETTING DOWN ON OUR TOWN

There are mornings when I wake up before my family, like to spend the quiet moments on the deck enjoying the stillness (these recent years with Ziggy, a beautiful friend who knows the value of quiet). We haven’t had much winter in our town, don’t know what that means to our farmers beyond hoping for a wet spring for all. As I drank my coffee on the deck this morning, it was not the winter chill that struck me (it is a little cool today, snowed a little last night, we used to call it a skiff). My thoughts today turned to the passage of time, and how we all treat tomorrow as a renewable resource—when in fact it is exactly the opposite.

Nail Yakupov delivered a wonderful performance on the Canadian prairies last night. The evening featured a goal, several excellent chances, intelligent decisions and miles and miles of miles and miles skating. For those of us who are Yakupov fans, and I assume that is everyone, it was a wonderful night. At 22, this splendid young man has invested most of four years of his life to our town, attempting to fulfill his dream. Proud, determined, gifted, he has attempted to grind his skills into something the coach can use, perceived as being not quite special, not quite good enough. Nail is part of the chorus, but never gets a solo, as every hockey man who has come to our town finds the same spot for him.

Moms and Dads the world over keep sending the Edmonton Oilers their children, and the Edmonton Oilers keep turning Jacks and Kings into sixes and sevens and nines. No matter what happens from here, Nail Yakupov is a King in my books. There is a goodness in him we can all see, an honorable and gentlemanly quality. The finest compliment you can give a parent is that you hope your children become just like their offspring. Such is the case with Nail Yakupov. Through four years of difficult times, he has maintained his good name in a town half a world away from the one he knows, working to find a better day. I believe that day will come in another town. I will be happy for Nail on the day he is traded, and will cheer for him loudly at every turn. This last decade of turmoil is not about these young men and their foibles, it is about the Edmonton Oilers and their inability to create an environment where these young men can flourish.

MAKE IT STOP, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-5-1
  • Oilers after 59 in 2014-15: 17-32-10, 44 points (-61 GD)
  • Oilers after 59 in 2015-16: 22-31-6, 50 points (-32 GD)

Things are getting interesting now in the spy vs. spy year over year race. Nelson’s Oilers have been 10 points behind for much of the year but are now closing the gap. As Todd McLellan’s chances of posting a second .500 month fade into black, Nelson’s crew have begun to find something that rhymes. From here to the end of last season, Nelson and his men were 7-12-4—posting 18 points in 23 games. If McLellan’s crew can equal it, they will finish with 29 wins and 68 points—seems high based on the GA we have seen this week.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Davidson—Clendening were successful at evens, and played a lot. Both men are rookies, and despite some wobbly bits (the EN goal was irritating, but not especially helpful to analyzing the evening), get a passing grade. They were with the Hall-Leon-Purcell line (Davidson 9-1) and got the puck up pretty well when they could control it and get away from the pressure. Brandon Davidson, at this point in his career, is playing brilliant NHL hockey.
  • Sekera—Schultz also got the Corgi love, Schultz was soft on coverage on one of the goals (he needed to be more aggressive with the oncoming train, and let the goalie grab the puck). Sekera shows all the other men how to do it every game. Sees the open lane, makes a sturdy pass, follows up the play. Makes it look easy. Then he goes to the bench. Traitor. Schultz was fine, save for the GA where he was not effective in clearing the puck or tying up his man. Basic defense.
  • Nurse—Fayne is a duo I think might make a good third-pairing someday, maybe next season. I liked Nurse’s edge, and did not like his coverage in the slot. Rookies, even when the are bright and learning, can be really frustrating. Patience. Fayne remains the same, reliable, effective defensively and a welcome veteran in a season of rookie blue.
  • Cam Talbot, after an extensive run of good-to-great, was not as sharp as he needs to be in order for his team to gain points. He would need a few of these in a month before I would feel a need to worry.

The Edmonton Oilers had 16 high-danger scoring chances at 5×5 last night, double the Wild. They still lost, due to easy looks and loose morals around the net. Despite dangerous chances by Leon Draisaitl (4), Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, Connor McDavid and Darnell Nurse (2), Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle, Lauri Korpikoski and Benoit Pouliot (1), the club could not stop enough sorties or pucks. The power play rang and Nail hammered, but the Wild once again left Dodge City with two points.

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Leon Draisaitl and his line romped, but once again could not cash. I know the dice have no memory, but would bet we see a breakout from this trio soon, possibly tomorrow. The big man had more jump this game, possibly signalling recovery from those bumps and bruises collected on the road trip.
  • Mark Letestu had so many chances on the power play it hurt. If one of those cashes, we are having a different conversation this morning. I like him, wish he had better mitts.
  • Anton Lander had a reasonable night, he helps the PK to my eye despite the overall results on the PK last night. I don’t see him getting any chances at all offensively, maybe I am missing them.
  • Connor McDavid scored a goal, checked well and was responsible to my eye. A wonderful player, if they packaged his shifts into a 20-minute video I might just watch that.

WINGS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Hall—Purcell were dangerous all night long, I felt it was only a matter of time. Hall did score, but the Oilers got screwed out of a goal for the 90th time this year. Lordy. Anyway, hard-working line and they didn’t get justice. Hall is pushing now, the line drives are finding leather, but this too shall pass.
  • Pouliot—Eberle cashed early on a sweet goal but I felt they were chasing the puck a lot after that. The Koivu line did good work against this line, that is going to happen. Eberle is healthy now, you can see his quickness and passing ability give him an edge on most exchanges. Pouliot posted a solid game, good to see after a 24-hour cycle that saw some fairly pointed criticisms of the big man. Is on pace for a 50-point season, despite missing about 10 games. That has value, and as we talked yesterday, this player is bona fide and his efforts should be respected. If someone is dissing a player who brings real value, then I encourage you to assess the value of their opinion.
  • Korpikosli—Yakupov was mostly Yakupov, that was his best game of the year. I counted four great chances (goal, pipe, two robberies) and he was as fast as I can recall him. Splendid game, I will hold on to that image and hope we see it when he is in Montreal (or wherever he ends up). That was the kind of effort I had hoped we would see under Todd McLellan, one hopes it is not too late while also knowing, in their heart, the die is cast.
  • Hendricks—Pakarinen played the opposition to a standstill but didn’t get a lot done offensively. The only line that did not have a dangerous chance, can’t ask that from your 4line every night. I like both players, hope we see them on next year’s team.

I loved Niinimaa. He gave it all for the Edmonton Oilers, bled copper and blue, sent gorgeous passes forward, played with creativity and imagination. In the history of the Edmonton Oilers, these boys from Finland keep capturing our hearts with their wonderful skills and fun-loving approach to life. I cannot imagine these years of being an Oilers fan without the presence of Janne Niinimaa and his countrymen. We miss you Janne Niinimaa, you were a splendid hockey player. The Oilers badly need another Niinimaa right bloody now.

HABS ABOUT TO BE DUMB, IN 5…4…

I want to post this before the trade happens (you get the feeling this thing won’t take long) but my o my what an insane few days in Montreal. For the life of me I cannot begin to guess what is happening behind the scenes, but it has to be massive for this stuff to be reaching the media. I am struck by a few things:

  • This doesn’t happen to organizations that are well run, and the problem begins at the top. Chicago turned around in a heartbeat once Rocky Wirtz took over. If I owned the Habs, I would fire all of the executives before trading Subban, but this looks farther along than anyone outside realized.
  • The Oilers are going to be in on this.
  • Taylor Hall may be the ask.
  • The teams may settle on something like Nuge and Nurse.
  • The Habs might ask for Leon.
  • I am in favor of acquiring Subban UNLESS the root of this issue with the Habs is catastrophic. I have no idea what the problem is, but Peter Chiarelli has to know the issue before dealing for him.
  • If the due diligence returns a thumbs up on the issue, pull the damned trigger on the trade. This is too perfect for the Oilers. Expect an overpay, and that is the truth. They cannot let this impact defenseman slip through their fingers.
  • Nuge, Nurse and Nail for Subban and Lars Eller. Does either side do this? No side? I am terrible at trade ideas so welcome your input.
  • Things just got interesting.

As is the case with Nail, probably the sooner the better. The Oilers wear this failure too, whatever their problems in turning prospects into useful players, the evidence suggests it is not getting better. I count Nail and Schultz among the Tambellini era failures, but an assist goes to MacT and it is disappointing to see that Todd McLellan was unable to unlock the defender. Not blaming the coach, but I had hoped there was something he could do to help 19.

there will be blood

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show, Friday edition starts at 10, TSN1260. We discussed Subban at length yesterday on the show, suspect it will dominant proceedings again today. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Subban on the block? Plus Flint and what is happening there.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. Eddies training continues, they edge nearer their trip across the pond, and Spurs are kicking ass.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Trying to get a feel for the available defensemen in this year’s draft, and yes, I will ask about RH blue.
  • Paul Almedia, SSE. Paul grew up a Habs fan, so this should be an interesting conversation in regard to Subban.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Amazing developments possible today.

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287 Responses to "THE SUN’S SETTING DOWN ON OUR TOWN"

« Older Comments
  1. godot10 says:

    Water Fire:
    K + N aren’t the Van Goghs of the coaching world, nobody understanding their genius, even if McLellan isn’t perfect.

    Krueger is running a team (effectively Bob Nicholson’s job) in the English Premier League. Lowe and MacT fired him because he was not willing to be their yes man, and they felt their positions threatened by an actual competent independent-thinking outsider.

    Nelson is a nobody who is working his way up from the bottom. There are a lot of guys like him who are as good or better than the re-treads, but who haven’t gotten their break.

    Nelson was unlucky. He ended up in a nepotistic organization who hired an incompetent like MacT.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Its days like these that you wish the Oilers still had the right to Omark to top off a trade.

  3. Pajamah says:

    MenovOil: Seriously. If PK can score 60 points with the shit the Habs have at forward, he would probably be PPG in Edmonton and I’m dead serious.

    The young team dynamic is absolutely something that needs to be considered. Montreal as a team decided PK and Price couldn’t do their “low-five” routine anymore. The Habs think this is the NFL or something.

    We need a boisterous rebel rouser to balance out CMD’s goody two shoes bit.

  4. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    For those wanted information on Subban you just have to google it.

    He has had at least five toe to toe fight with teammates and a spirited confrontation with an assistant coach.There are other reports of teammates displeasure with in respect to his holdout.

    In a poll of 700 NHL players he was voted most disliked.

    For me thatqualifies him as a dick who I wouldn’t want as a teammate but you be your own judge.

    Tyler Seguin was not liked in BOS.

    Jim Nill’s pretty happy about that.

  5. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    Don’t we have Reijo Ruotsalainen in perpetuity? That would be a good sweetner, no? Or will we have to throw in a 2nd?

  6. Caramel Batman says:

    Even if his teammates don’t like him, I’m not sure what that is supposed to prove.

    I’d rather have a guy like Subban than a worthless human being like Brad Marchand. And yet people in the NHL seem to like Marchand.

  7. sliderule says:

    Pink Socks,

    If Subban can get us to a cup final I am all in.

    In my experience in team sports a dick can be so disruptive that it can destroy the team.

    You would have to have a team captain like Messier or a coach like Babcock to control this type.

    I don’t see the oilers having anyone fitting that role.

  8. Water Fire says:

    stevezie:
    Since people are still arguing about whether or not he even does rub some people the wrong way, here is are a couple articles about him fighting with teammates: http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2012/02/23/p-k-subban-keeps-getting-in-fights-with-his-teammates/
    http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2013/03/01/cole-denies-subban-feud-i-dont-think-pk-and-i-were-in-conflict/

    He really does rub some people the wrong way. Fact.

    I don’t see this as a huge deal. The list of stars who didn’t get along with teammates is long and distinguished. Plus a fresh start can help- it might be nice for him to get a room full of guys who don’t remember him when he was 19. I’m sure a few around here can relate.

    How any of you can sneeze watch the Oilers every night and sneeze at that kind of scoring from the D baffles me.
    1) They don’t have to get along, they just have to win.
    2) The Oilers are a young team that would probably fit in better with PK anyway.

    But group dynamics are critical if winning is the goal. Strife takes a big toll on people. Sports team mentality is all about the group first, egos and self second.

    Pronger could get away with it because he was utterly dominant. He could put his money where his mouth was. Ference had this problem, asked to be a leader, but his preaching fell on deaf ears because he was not even a decent player anymore. Calling Hall out publicly did not work as intended.

    I don’t think PK has the cred to get away with much. He has his trophy but no playoff success, not on Team Canada, not dominant two ways at least yet. I lean toward guys who play nice in the sandbox though.

  9. BAUCE says:

    wow talk about character assassination.

  10. Younger Oil says:

    Is this the fastest an article has gotten to 200 comments?

  11. blainer says:

    PK is not being traded now IMO.

    He may however be available at the draft before his no-trade kicks in.

    That is when it will happen IF it happens.

    Man I would just like to see this team healthy for a few games.

    I don’t think Klef will even return this season and I wonder if this could be a career ender for him.

    He may never be the same when or even if he does return.

    Man the bad luck this team has.

    I can’t wait for the new rink just to try and shake what I think has become the Rexall curse.

  12. stevezie says:

    Water Fire,

    I agree that all things being equal cohesion is best, but all things are not equal.

    Pronger is an amazing example, as I don’t know any other player ever in the history of the league who was that good and got traded that often. I would argue he was either the best or second best positional player of his generation and he got traded three times! That’s amazing. Not left to sign elsewhere, but traded! It really is unprecedented.

    However, before he got traded, he won three pennants, a cup, and a President’s Trophy.

    Looks to me like the worst case scenario is we have to trade Subban in a few years. Probably worth it. Anaheim got a cup out of Pronger then traded him for almost exactly what they paid.

    Seems like the Seguin scenario is just as likely. He hits a new team, gels with the teammates, and things go fine.

  13. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10:

    Nelson is a nobody who is working his way up from the bottom.There are a lot of guys like him who are as good or better than the re-treads, but who haven’t gotten their break.

    Nelson was unlucky.He ended up in a nepotistic organization who hiredan incompetent like MacT.

    Nelson was unlucky, but not because of nepotism.

    The Oilers needed to bring in a coach who was viewed as elite. Clearly good at what he did.

    Having TMac in place is about getting rid of excuses. You can’t look at TMac and argue he’s the reason we’re terrible.

    If we still had Nelson there would be a chorus of people blaming him for the ills of the team. They would have been wrong but because he’s inexperienced there would always be that lingering doubt.

    I think he’s a fantastic coach and believe he will make it at the NHL level. It wasn’t going to happen with the Oilers unless they showed marked and substantial improvement in the standings under his tenure. What he did wasn’t enough to overcome that.

  14. LMHF#1 says:

    Water Fire:
    Pronger could get away with it because he was utterly dominant.

    What precisely did Pronger get away with?

    All the chatter at the time suggested he was THE leader in that room and as he cemented himself as that, the team went on a roll.

  15. frjohnk says:

    Younger Oil:
    Is this the fastest an article has gotten to 200 comments?

    McDavid lottery win will never be beaten.

  16. kinger_OIL says:

    Not that we need another 6/7 D, I’m just saying we had ’em: “Chorns has done a fantastic job and has played very, very well,” head coach Barry Trotz told the Washington Post.

  17. frjohnk says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Nelson was unlucky, but not because of nepotism.

    The Oilers needed to bring in a coach who was viewed as elite.Clearly good at what he did.

    Having TMac in place is about getting rid of excuses.You can’t look at TMac and argue he’s the reason we’re terrible.

    If we still had Nelson there would be a chorus of people blaming him for the ills of the team.They would have been wrong but because he’s inexperienced there would always be that lingering doubt.

    I think he’s a fantastic coach and believe he will make it at the NHL level.It wasn’t going to happen with the Oilers unless they showed marked and substantial improvement in the standings under his tenure.What he did wasn’t enough to overcome that.

    yup

  18. stevezie says:

    Caramel Batman,

    If we are talking strictly about winning hockey games, then getting along with teammates is more important than any meaningful definition of “good person”.

    Jesus Christ didn’t get along with all of His teammates, and there are rapists in the hall of fame.

    Of course, we’re being needlessly dramatic because that is what watching sports is all about. Mixed in with all the noise is one story that illustrates everything:

    Seguin’s teammates didn’t like him and they won a cup and two pennants. Then they traded him to a new team that seems to like him fine, and where he is even more successful. So:

    1. Not everyone who doesn’t click with teammates is a jerk,
    2. Some people who are jerks are still incredibly successful in team sports,
    therefore:
    3. Whether or not PK gets along with his current teammates should not be a determining factor in acquiring him.

    I don’t want to cheer for evil people or losing teams. If the only issue is personality then I don’t care and neither should other fans.

  19. Ducey says:

    As someone who has little faith in Yak, I was impressed with him yesterday.

    Hopefully he can find a way to bring that every night (NB: its not his fuking line mates). Then the trade talk would fade away.

    Well, at least until he and 8 other players were traded for PK.

  20. Kmart99 says:

    Elliotte saying if he was Bergevin, he’d ask for Hall, Klefbom, and Nurse ….yikes. Friedman… Come on, really?

  21. Lowetide says:

    Gunnar Svensson ‏@Gunnar56 8m8 minutes ago

    Lets put it this way. I would be suprised if not Edmonton Oilers are involded in a bigger trade before deadline feb 28.

    Gunnar is Magnus’ Dad, agent in Sweden (for those who do not know) and is a hilarious guy (have had him on the show). Interesting.

  22. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    I like Gunnar a lot.

    What would Gunnar know?

    Kmart99,

    I love Fried and do not consider myself a homer but he is off his rocker there.

  23. rickithebear says:

    I did a simple +/- review of Hamilton versus the WC to geta rough idea of performance.

    Lets look at PK:
    Central:
    CHI 6gm 1 EV 5 minus
    COL 6gm 1 plus 1 ev 4 minus
    Dal 5gm 1 plus 1 ev 3 minus
    MIN 5gm 2 plus 1 ev 2 minus
    NSH 5gm 1 plus 2 ev 2 minus
    STL 6gm 4 plus 2 ev
    WPG 5gm 3 plus 2 ev
    38gm 12 plus 10 ev 16 minus

    Pacific:
    ANA: 4gm 1 plus 1 ev 2 minus
    ARZ 6gm 2 plus 3 ev 1 minus
    CGY 5 gm 2 plus 2 ev 1 minus
    EDM 6gm 2 plus 4 minus
    LAK 5gm 2 plus 1 ev 2 minus
    SJS 5gm 1 plus 1 EV 3 minus
    VAN 6gm 4 plus 1 ev 1 minus
    37gm 14 plus 9 ev 14 minus

    Results against
    Cent CHI; COL; DAl; MIN; NSH
    and
    Pacific Ana; Edm; LAk; SJS
    scares the heck out of me!

    34% of the time he si not breaking even or getting it handed to him!

    Christ i wonder if he could handle 2/3rd comp?

    He is a game changer!

    #1 pick for the life of his contract.

  24. speeds says:

    Pink Socks:
    The problem with Drai and Nurse moving to MTL is that since they are both on ELCs the money doesn’t work out and it removes Drai from the equation. It has to balance which results in it being one of RNH, Hall, or Eberle being part of the equation.

    Hall being the central point of a trade means less goes out with him.RNH / Ebs require at least Yak, one of Klefbom or Nurse, plus the 1st rounder going the other way.In either scenario, if Subban really is moved, Chia has the assets and ultimately has egg on his face if PK finds a new home anywhere other than Edmonton.So which is preferred, Hall + Nurse, or RNH + Nurse + Yak + 1st?

    I wouldn’t do either of those deals, both strike me as pretty big overpays.

  25. Eastern Oil says:

    Kmart99:
    Elliotte saying if he was Bergevin, he’d ask for Hall, Klefbom, and Nurse ….yikes.Friedman… Come on, really?

    I completely agree but I think he was going overboard as he mentioned that the Habs have to win the trade or they’re done (but as we would have to if we traded Hall). Plus, as D-men, Nurse and Klefbom are far from Subban.

    He then said he wouldn’t trade Matthews for Subban due to years of control, that was interesting too.

  26. Water Fire says:

    godot10: Krueger is running a team (effectively Bob Nicholson’s job) in the English Premier League.Lowe and MacT fired him because he was not willing to be their yes man, and they felt their positions threatened by an actual competent independent-thinking outsider.

    Nelson is a nobody who is working his way up from the bottom.There are a lot of guys like him who are as good or better than the re-treads, but who haven’t gotten their break.

    Nelson was unlucky.He ended up in a nepotistic organization who hiredan incompetent like MacT.

    Yes I know and agree, but let’s not overstate things regarding them. They didn’t have long enough to get into trouble either right?

  27. Adam Wu says:

    If Subban is really available, its a no brainer for the Oilers to do whatever they can to get him.

    1D of Subban’s caliber are typically untouchable. They do not become available without something going on. If that something is inability to get along with current teammates then that’s part of the price you should be willing to pay to get such a player, particularly if your need is as great as the Oilers’.

    If I were in charge in Montreal, barring something truly astoundingly egregious, so long as one of them isn’t named Carey Price, I’d be trading all the other players who aren’t getting along with Subban, up to and including the whole team, until I found a core of players who can function well with Subban and Price, because those two guys are the core I build my team around.

    And if Subban became an Oiler, it would be the same dynamic, except it would be McDavid and Subban.

    Winning salves a lot of interpersonal tension. Note that no one was talking about moving Subban while Montreal was perennially challenging deep runs in the playoffs. The immediate bump in team success that Subban’s presence would probably give the team should head off major personality conflicts for a good amount of time.

    If, eventually, the pot boils over, we can trade PK a few years down the road. We may have to do it anyways for cap reasons once McDavid gets paid. But several years of Subban as our 1D means that much time to rebuild a winning culture and that much time and shelter for our younger D prospects to develop (whichever ones are left after a Subban trade) into a suitable replacement.

    For once, let us be the benefactors of some other team’s management going nuts or stupid.

  28. Eastern Oil says:

    Lowetide:
    Gunnar Svensson ‏@Gunnar56 8m8 minutes ago

    Lets put it this way. I would be suprised if not Edmonton Oilers are involded in a bigger trade before deadline feb 28.

    Gunnar is Magnus’ Dad, agent in Sweden (for those who do not know) and is a hilarious guy (have had him on the show). Interesting.

    Maybe Magnus told him that he was headed back to the Oil! Huzzah!

  29. ashley says:

    frjohnk:
    I dont see Subban getting traded at all, but…………….

    There are issues with Subban, ( that we do not know the whole story) but lets say for all intents and purposes, they are basically nothing

    Im a fan of PK Subban, but Im not sure that the acquistion cost and the cap cost is actually worth going after him.

    ACQUISTION COST

    In regards to acquistion cost, we would be bidding with a whole pile of other teams, so we would have to overpay to get him.

    Remember those bidding wars in the real estate market about a decade ago?Where a $300,000 house had 22 bids and the winning bid was $375,000 with no conditions.

    Prying Subban from Montreal may not be unlike that.We would have to overbid, and it might have to a big one.

    If the Habs were to trade Subban, they would be in fact rebuilding,

    -They would want a number 1 center, or one that is on pace
    -They would want a potential top pairing D man
    -A 1st rounder

    Probably something like

    Draisaitl
    Nurse
    Our 1st round pick this year

    That would probably beat all other offers. We would need to send salary along with as well.

    CAP COST
    $9M dollar hit is 12.5% of the cap.

    Not out of the question that in 2 years, Subban and McDavid would eat up 25% of the cap. ( Basing this on McDavid getting $9.7M and the cap increasing slightly)

    If this was the case, then we would need to follow the Chicago model and look at having a significant part of the roster making peanuts.But they would need to be actual NHL players.This would be hard for the Oilers because we overpay most bottom 6 players and some of them are not actual NHL players.

    OVERALL
    I pass.

    Acquistion cost would be too much as we would have to overpay and his cap hit at $9M would cause problems down the road.

    Stick with the plan.

    Use these assets

    Eberle
    2016 1st
    Reinhart
    Yak

    to get 2 more top 4 D men.

    Add Nurse and RNH if something significant could come this way.

    I agree with this line of thinking. I think most comments here are overvaluing PK and supremely overvaluing PK plus his contract. We need more than one good dman to make this team better.

    Remember when CMD was the magical change that was going to bring us Stanley? Forget that, what about when just the addition of Hall was going to bring back the glory. That was 6 years ago.

    The problem is complex and does not have a silver bullet solution. This is the whale mindset. In fact, subtracting Leon, Nuge and Nurse for Subban only makes this team marginally better overall.

    If he gets traded, I suspect the winner of the auction will give up too much and start regretting it around November or so.

    Many teams have shown that you don’t need a top 5 Dman to win in this league. At this point, I would settle for average NHL D corps which we are still several bodies away from. Subban (minus Nurse or Klef) still does not give us an average NHL D corps.

  30. Water Fire says:

    stevezie:
    Water Fire,

    I agree that all things being equal cohesion is best, but all things are not equal.

    Pronger is an amazing example, as I don’t know any other player ever in the history of the league who was that good and got traded that often. I would argue he was either the best or second best positional player of his generation and he got traded three times! That’s amazing. Not left to sign elsewhere, but traded! It really is unprecedented.

    However, before he got traded, he won three pennants, a cup, and a President’s Trophy.

    Looks to me like the worst case scenario is we have to trade Subban in a few years. Probably worth it. Anaheim got a cup out of Pronger then traded him for almost exactly what they paid.

    Seems like the Seguin scenario is just as likely. He hits a new team, gels with the teammates, and things go fine.

    He might be worth it who knows. But that 9M lengthy contract is not liquid especially on second move, and Seguin is no where near the size of personality as PK. Seguin was just being a party animal somewhat flaky guy not buying in fast enough to the Bruins’ grunt mentality on a team full of vets.

    Really if PK wasn’t so expensive I’d have less of an issue with the idea.

  31. blainer says:

    rickithebear:
    I did a simple +/- review of Hamilton versus the WC to geta rough idea of performance.

    Lets look at PK:
    Central:
    CHI 6gm 1 EV 5 minus
    COL6gm 1 plus1 ev 4 minus
    Dal 5gm 1 plus 1 ev3 minus
    MIN 5gm 2 plus 1 ev2 minus
    NSH 5gm 1 plus2 ev 2 minus
    STL 6gm 4 plus 2 ev
    WPG 5gm 3 plus 2 ev
    38gm 12 plus 10 ev 16 minus

    Pacific:
    ANA: 4gm 1 plus 1 ev 2 minus
    ARZ 6gm 2 plus 3 ev 1 minus
    CGY 5 gm 2 plus 2 ev 1 minus
    EDM 6gm2 plus 4 minus
    LAK 5gm 2 plus 1 ev 2 minus
    SJS 5gm 1 plus 1 EV 3 minus
    VAN 6gm 4 plus 1 ev 1 minus
    37gm 14 plus 9 ev 14 minus

    Results against
    Cent CHI; COL; DAl; MIN; NSH
    and
    PacificAna; Edm; LAk; SJS
    scare the heck out of me!
    Christ i wonder if he could handle 2/3rd comp?

    This is a very good post.

    Be very wary of eastern D coming to the west.

    In the east they have less travel more practice time and other than the first half of this year much easier comp.

    It is just rare that eastern D do well in the west but it seems western D do much better in the East.

    We should be buyer beware with PK based on this point alone.

  32. GCW_69 says:

    russ99: Anyone but Hall and McDavid and any picks should be on the table if Subban is available.

    Hall should be on the table if that’s what it takes. He’s a winger, and although he is a possession driver, the remaining forwards of Nuge, Leon, McDavid and Eberle should be able to pick up the slack.

    You can’t miss out on Subban to protect Hall. You just can’t.

  33. G Money says:

    I think if Hawks can win with the real douchebag PK (Kane), then most of the ‘character’ bullshit is just a stupid smokescreen about PK Subban’s ‘good in the room’.

    No different from the crap we’ve heard circulating around Taylor Hall’s character forever.

    The NHL old guard doesn’t like flamboyant players. The NHL old guard likely doesn’t appreciate PK’s skin tone either.

    But he’s that incredibly rare commodity, a legit 1D.

    Incredibly stupid if they trade him, but if they actually do, Chia needs to be in on it.

  34. Centre of attention says:

    Sorry guys, Subban isn’t going anywhere.

    Reading multiple reports that this is all bullsh*t made up for talking points in the media.

    So yeah. No Subban.

    Also, he is not worth Hall+Klefbom+Nurse. Ridiculous proposal by Friedman, who is usually more grounded.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Eastern Oil: Maybe Magnus told him that he was headed back to the Oil! Huzzah!

    I might be the only one who would be thrilled, but I would be thrilled.

  36. threeputtdouble says:

    Getting lost in the Subban euphoria is a beauty article on Yak, LT. Dead on. I hope you are wrong because this is the player I cheer for the hardest.

  37. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Centre of attention,

    Now why go and ruin the fun? Toronto actually held a candlelight vigil for Stamkos when he played there and you can’t even let us have a few hours of fun trolling? Common man lighten up!

  38. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Its days like these that you wish the Oilers still had the right to Omark to top off a trade.

    I think you’re really discounting the value of Horak here.

    He’s the new black (ie: Omark).

  39. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Gunnar Svensson ‏@Gunnar56 8m8 minutes ago

    Lets put it this way. I would be suprised if not Edmonton Oilers are involded in a bigger trade before deadline feb 28.

    Gunnar is Magnus’ Dad, agent in Sweden (for those who do not know) and is a hilarious guy (have had him on the show). Interesting.

    Very interesting.

    Wonder how that connection works? Frank Musil still working overseas? Maybe Gunnar sees Frank in some rinks and asks how he’s doing, Frank says he’s there to check on some players, Gunnar notes that none of the guys he’s watching are Oilers’ property, so on and so on.

  40. Factotum says:

    “My thoughts today turned to the passage of time, and how we all treat tomorrow as a renewable resource—when in fact it is exactly the opposite.”

    I’ve been having these exact thoughts quite a lot lately.

  41. stevezie says:

    G Money,

    Exactly.

    Lowetide: Eastern Oil

    A top heavy team needs a cheap 4th line! He more than qualifies.

  42. stevezie says:

    RexLibris,

    This is exactly what I am wondering. How does Gunnar know?

    I’ve a pal who used to do a little scouting and claimed to know a lot on insider info. I have no doubt he really heard something, but I don’t know how much more solid it was than the rumours we here around here.

    Maybe Gunnar is guessing?

  43. stevezie says:

    RexLibris: I think you’re really discounting the value of Horak here.

    He’s the new black (ie: Omark).

    Psh, he ain’t even on youtube, how good could he be?

    Doubt he’s worth more than a third at the deadline.

  44. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention,

    Sorry guys I am reading reports that the reports that this is all bullshit are all bullshit meant to throw off the true story. Subban is definitely getting traded! As it turns out it was going to come out sooner or later, but when asked if he likes eating poutine, Subban’s response was, “I could take it or leave it.” He also pronounced it Poo Teen! Needless to say he has got to go.

    Friedman’s proposal is way too much going out for the Oilers.

  45. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Chachi,

    I’ve also read reports that Dreger is mad that Louis Jean scooped him and is peddling false stories to try and make up for it!

    And ya Freidman’s trade is out to lunch, he’s been hanging around with PJ and Strombo too much lately and its starting to cloud his judgement.

  46. leadfarmer says:

    Yak is so forgotten by the Oilers. Even an article on him turns into a discussion on another player. 🙂

  47. Ducey says:

    If I am Chia I get the word out that MTL is discussing trading PK. Then watch the MTL media hound Bergevin into having to trade him.

  48. Greg says:

    Taylor Chorney got a 2 year deal with the caps.

  49. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: I might be the only one who would be thrilled, but I would be thrilled.

    Lander would be happy too. He would have a buddy to watch the games with 🙂

  50. Zed says:

    I couldn’t agree more with you. A nepotistic, non-meritocratic organization creates confusion for the players. How can our fine young players thrive, drive, and be collectively motivated, when it is inconsistent and unclear what merits reward and what results in punishment – punishment which is not meted out equally to different players for the same offences? Or to different coaches. Think of our bugbear referees. It’s not the missed calls or the overcalls as much as it’s the fact that nobody can predict how the whistles will be used that day. In a dressing room, not having structure and a clear merit-based system results in the mess we have today. Sometimes the word “cancer” is thrown around about various individuals in the room, but the problem is that the organization is cancerous. And MacTumour is still here with us, and he will be at the draft my friends (and his sideburns are just fine if there was ever a concern)…

    ps Long long time lurker, but I finally had to post something after years of reading. Boiling point…

    godot10: Krueger is running a team (effectively Bob Nicholson’s job) in the English Premier League.Lowe and MacT fired him because he was not willing to be their yes man, and they felt their positions threatened by an actual competent independent-thinking outsider.

    Nelson is a nobody who is working his way up from the bottom.There are a lot of guys like him who are as good or better than the re-treads, but who haven’t gotten their break.

    Nelson was unlucky.He ended up in a nepotistic organization who hiredan incompetent like MacT.

  51. RexLibris says:

    Getting back to Yakupov for a moment.

    I was thinking about this yesterday amidst all the talk of he and Pouliot needing to improve and began to think of another flashy young winger we had who never really seemed to warm to the idea of adjusting his game to become something more well-rounded and less goal-focused.

    Tambellini traded him for a delayed 2nd round pick which we used on a prospect we didn’t even sign but added as a free-agent.

    In the meantime Cogliano went to another organization, heard the same reports from new voices and changed his game to become what we all saw in the beginning, a speedy winger who could play effectively on the forecheck, penalty kill, 2/3rd line and chip in 30 or more points a year.

    Plus ca change…

  52. G Money says:

    Chachi,

    Well, plus there’s that whole controversy where Quebecers insist on pronouncing his initials as “Paykah” instead of “Peekay”.

    Seriously? We all know that’s just a poor attempt to disguise the fact that they think he’s a pecker. Who wouldn’t want to get away from that kind of disrespect?

  53. Chachi says:

    G Money,

    Paykah picked a pack of pickled peppers!

  54. Melman says:

    PK is a pipe dream. If he ever was on the table, if we’re smart enough to know the Oilers should be in on it I’m sure PC is too.

    The threshold for happiness is so low nowadays, I don’t need to be greedy for PK I’d just be happy waving goodbye to 19.

  55. Chachi says:

    Greg,

    Greg:
    Taylor Chorney got a 2 year deal with the caps.

    April Fools! No? Huh.

    I think Chorney is the last player left playing in the NHL who was on the ice for the Oilers during “The Shift”.

  56. ashley says:

    Greg:
    Taylor Chorney got a 2 year deal with the caps.

    I always liked Chorney. NIce kid, seemed coachable, and was willing to play a tough game for his size. Lightning quick which can’t be taught, but has so much value in today’s NHL. Didn’t STL take him on waivers one year? Around the time of the Shawn Belle experiment?

    Could be a real value contract for WSH.

  57. Pouzar says:

    ashley: I always liked Chorney.NIce kid, seemed coachable, and was willing to play a tough game for his size.Lightning quick which can’t be taught, but has so much value in today’s NHL.Didn’t STL take him on waivers one year?Around the time of the Shawn Belle experiment?

    Could be a real value contract for WSH.

    We are always quick to write off our own around here especially defensemen. People here were calling for Davidson to be to sent down waivers be damned. Now Musil/Oesterle are the latest victims. I am not saying they are NHLers but I sure as shit ain’t writing them off either like some on here who have watched maybe 5 mins of these guys play.

  58. Melman says:

    In case anyone needs some solace and company to commiserate with…

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/how-to-cheer-for-a-perennial-loser-ask-a-browns-fan/

  59. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Yakupov can play with McDavid. He needs a puck carrier centre and Letestu is just not that. It’s pretty evident Yak’s hockey IQ is lacking, and McDavid more than makes up for it. I think you pump Eberle’s numbers with Eberle and deal him, then move Yak back up with Pou-McD. Yak must have pretty negligible trade value, Eberle is a shiny silver coin.

    Does Draisaitl+Eberle get you close to Subban? Add a first on both sides?

  60. sliderule says:

    Whether or not he has inside information Gunnar is right about a big trade probably at the draft or off season.

    The only asset that they have that will be overvalued is Hall so he probably will be part of it.

    It is said by most that the oilers have the wrong mix of players.

    Don’t you think it’s time to deal with it.

  61. frjohnk says:

    sliderule: It is said by most that the oilers have the wrong mix of players.

    Yup.

    Last night on defense we had

    1 top 4 D man Sekara
    Fayne who is a 4/5
    3 rookies
    and a Jultz ( or a rookie with 4 years experience)

  62. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cap would get really iffy if they traded for Subban after Stamkos signs here ;)))))

  63. PunkInDrublic says:

    Nuge, Pouliot and Reinhart for Subban would be the ideal 3 for 1 imo.

    Top centre, skilled Frenchman, “high level” defensive prospect. MTL could sell that to their fans fairly easily I expect. Salaries balance out well too, other than bonuses.

    This team needs a CFP. Not that PK is there (yet or perhaps ever), but he’s as close as you will get in the current nHL.

    Those three are spare parts ( for lack of a better term) to the Oilers and can be easily replaced either on the current roster or through signings this summer.

  64. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Pouzar,

    This is very very true. I haven’t watched any games but have been following the verbal on Osterle pretty close lately. There may be a player there

  65. Quinlan says:

    So, with Lebrun’s comments this whole PK Subban Trade Watch is over right?

    Good.

    Yak was phenomenal last night. I hold out hope that it was a positive reaction to his coach supporting him and reminding him of the kind of player he can and should be, night in, night out. That contract could be gold, if only they can unlock his potential.

    To be fair to his detractors, Yak hasn’t brought it every night or even every other night. That’s going to be the key to making the next step.

    He needs to play in such a way that he demands ice time from his coach. I think TMac is fair enough a man to reward sustained performance. What we saw last night is what Yak is capable of – which was insane. He brings a greater range of skills than Jordan Eberle, and, IMO, that’s why they’ll ultimately keep him and move out #14. Better hitter, better skater, heavier playing style.

    IMO, Yak was more noticeable than McDavid last night, and that’s saying something.

  66. bendelson says:

    Those paying attention to my Korpikoski posts over the past six months (I know you’re out there!) know I have a real (often blinding) soft spot for the Finns… and Janne was an absolute gem. Loved that player. He wore his heart on his sleeve and you could tell his love of the team and the city ran deep. I would see him at the Black Dog every now and then – usually with one or two Oilers youngsters in tow… Man. Janne Niinimaa. Woot. Woot.

  67. AsiaOil says:

    ….and he was the best guy on the ice playing with one of the worst players in the NHL (statistically) on the other wing and a beat up converted 3rd line winger as his center. Watching Nail fly around hammering bombs while Shultz sleepwalks and chucks muffin wrist shots on net on the PP was “rewarding”.

    Thanks for the write up on Yak LT. Too true and a lot of us will always cheer for the kid after he’s gone. Yak is jazz and anyone with a brain puts him with guys who get his unconventional creativity. It’s why he works so well with McDavid and flops with RNH – but because Oilers – they would rather try break him into a systems robot than maximize his strengths. Crazy way to handle an elite but very unconventional type of player.

    As for PK – yeah you try do something is MTL is crazy enough to want to deal him – RNH, Nurse and Korpikoski for PK and Smith-Pelly is as high as I go.

    Ducey:
    As someone who has little faith in Yak, I was impressed with him yesterday.

    Hopefully he can find a way to bring that every night (NB: its not his fuking line mates).Then the trade talk would fade away.

    Well, at least until he and 8 other players were traded for PK.

  68. stevezie says:

    bendelson,

    I made him an Extreme Pita once. I hope he enjoyed it.

  69. JDï™ says:

    frjohnk: McDavid lottery win will never be beaten.

    Sure, but when over half the comments are ‘WOOOOOOOOOOOT’, I really think that record deserves an asterisk.

  70. Alpine says:

    I think and hope Yak will get time with either Draisaitl or McDavid when/if Purcell goes at the deadline. If you’re trying to move Yak for something, utilizing him with a 4th liner and AHLer and expecting to pile up points isn’t wise.

    If Purcell isn’t moved and is still given priority on the top lines post-TD, I’ll be a little miffed at whoever is deciding that. Yak should surely be a candidate for a pump and dump when he’s at an age that he could have trade value, if 16 as a 4.5MM UFA can get it.

  71. Snowman says:

    JDï™: Sure, but when over half the comments are ‘WOOOOOOOOOOOT’, I really think that record deserves an asterisk.

    I went back and read that thread today. That was a good day… WOOOOOOOOOOT! indeed.

  72. khildahl says:

    JDï™: Sure, but when over half the comments are ‘WOOOOOOOOOOOT’, I really think that record deserves an asterisk.

    Ehhhh…

    That’s STILL frequently the only sound I make while watching him with the puck.

  73. judgedrude says:

    frjohnk: and a Jultz

    …in a tree!

    Edit…link for context

  74. leadfarmer says:

    JDï™: Sure, but when over half the comments are ‘WOOOOOOOOOOOT’, I really think that record deserves an asterisk.

    After wandering in the desert for 10 years we need a few threads with Wooooot in them.

  75. G Money says:

    *** Truly a NERD Alert ***

    I have DangerousFenwick WOWY data! WOOOOOT!

    I’m pretty sure this is the first and only ‘danger’ metric that has WOWYs available.

    Details here:

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2016/02/19/i-have-dangerousfenwick-wowy/

  76. Gret99zky says:

    I will be shocked if PK gets moved out of MTL, nevermind lands in EDM.

    I will be shocked if Edmonton acquires Hamonic out of NYI.

    I expect Chia to get another 4-5 Dman and play him too high in the batting order.

    But hey, that shiny new draft pick will be fun to watch as he burns the first year of his ELC in the bigs.

    *I might be a little jaded.*

  77. Woodguy says:

    All,

    Gunnar is also a player agent.

    Zetterburg is one of his clients.

    Agents hear things all the time.

    Interesting times.

  78. highgloveside says:

    Teammates have fights, it happens. These issues were also in 2012-13 Subban is a very big personality and when you’re that young, NHL veterans don’t like that. Same thing happened in Oilers dressing room and thats why certain veterans were shipped out. A lot of this seems overblown and if it was really bad, they wouldn’t have signed him to such a big contract.

    I think this runs a little deeper and Bergevins support of Therrien seems surprisingly strong for a coach with a track record of a 3-4 year shelf life. I think a lot may have have to so with the fact that he is french and MTL only wants to hire french coaches. I think it is more of a Subban – Therrien thing, just like Subban was put on 3rd pairing for a long time after the holdout.

    If there is an issue between coach and franchise player, the coach should always go, Bergevin not doing this has caused it to go out of control.

    I hope that Subban publicly asks for a trade.

  79. Professor Q says:

    stevezie:
    Water Fire,

    I agree that all things being equal cohesion is best, but all things are not equal.

    Pronger is an amazing example, as I don’t know any other player ever in the history of the league who was that good and got traded that often. I would argue he was either the best or second best positional player of his generation and he got traded three times! That’s amazing. Not left to sign elsewhere, but traded! It really is unprecedented.

    However, before he got traded, he won three pennants, a cup, and a President’s Trophy.

    Looks to me like the worst case scenario is we have to trade Subban in a few years. Probably worth it. Anaheim got a cup out of Pronger then traded him for almost exactly what they paid.

    Seems like the Seguin scenario is just as likely. He hits a new team, gels with the teammates, and things go fine.

    Didn’t he get traded more than three times?

    Hartford to St. Louis, St. Louis to Edmonton, Edmonton to Anaheim, Anaheim to Philadelphia, Philadelphia to Arizona?

  80. Professor Q says:

    JDï™,

    Although if the lottery is won by the Oilers this year and Matthews is selected, it actually might tie the McDavid win due to the increased difficulty of the lottery process and the perpetual victories by Edmonton (and quality of player being almost as good).

  81. stevezie says:

    Professor Q,

    I didn’t count Philly to Arizona as he was effectively retired at that point.

  82. Professor Q says:

    stevezie,

    That still leaves four trades, good Ser.

  83. stevezie says:

    Re: Tomorrow

    Whilst we are talking, envious time doth slide:
    This day’s thine own; the next may be denied.

  84. stevezie says:

    Professor Q,

    Aw shucks, you’re right and I’m dumb. I was so confident I barely read your post. I completely forgot about the Hartford trade, which as I recall was specifically motivated by character issues.

    This just keeps getting unprecedenteder and unprecedenteder

    -In defence of teams who trade guys away for Character issues, it rarely becomes NHL lore when they turn out to be completely justified.

  85. G Money says:

    My two youngest babies turn eight today. HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?!?!

    They were actual babies just last week.

    Oddly, today also marks 25 years since I moved to the Land of the Sickening Red Enemy.

  86. stevezie says:

    G Money,

    I honestly thought you meant Russia for a second.

    And congrats.

  87. G Money says:

    stevezie,

    Ha, thanks!

    I guess Russia would have to be the Land of the Enigmatic Red Former Enemy or something?

    P.S. On the topic of my favourite conspiracy theory … highly entertaining rant from Steve Dangle about reffing http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/lets-talk-about-refs/

    The specific topic of his ire is Francois St. Laurent, whose name you might recall as he (hailing from a suburb of Montreal), along with the equally shockingly incompetent Tim Peel, officiated in the execrably refereed EDM-MTL game a few games back.

    Or … you know, they were unbiased, competent, and fair. Either way.

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