THE LEFTORIUM

I think most of us believe Peter Chiarelli will have some sense of urgency at the deadline and this summer. Is this certain? With the new arena coming, surely there will be a sense of urgency, to construct a competitive roster for the 2016-17 season? Is that reasonable to assume? And even if it is, does Peter Chiarelli feel pressure to make it happen? Or will we see another Griffin Reinhart style transaction, building up the future but not quite addressing the present? Chiarelli’s first Bruins team finished with 76 points, took Zach Hamil in the draft, then finished with 94, 116, 91, 103 and 102 points (and won the Stanley in the year they posted 103 points).

hamonic

Sunday night around the web, people talked about what Oiler gem Peter Chiarelli should trade for the magic defenseman. I read many things—you cannot trade a center, and that Darnell Nurse won’t post a big offensive season, all kinds of thought provoking  ideas. I love exchanges like that, it triggers my mind and gets the juices flowing. Now, there are 500 things I should be doing aside from thinking about who should be traded for Travis Hamonic, but most are tedious.

I come at the problem from a different angle. For me, the right idea is for Peter Chiarelli to make his list, say, 1-10, and then go after the top guy. If his No. 1 guy is Travis Hamonic, and Garth Snow wants Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl for him—and that is too much—you move on to No. 2. Right? The key isn’t (imo) to get the best defenseman you can for Jordan Eberle, the key is to get the best defenseman available for a cost you can stomach. Fair?

Jamie Oleksiak is a lefty D giant, higher than a mission bell. I don’t think the NHL will allow Chiarelli to trade for another lefthander without a sanity hearing, so will go ahead and disagree with Mr. Matheson on this one. I wrote about the Stars (and all of the NHL teams) over at ON, have three interesting players from the Dallas side.

hallnugebs

CORSI REL

I like CorsiRel. It makes sense to me. Oh sure, there are all kinds of new fangled items on the marketplace now, but when it comes to things like evaluating who should stay and who should go, CorsiRel speaks to me. Not like poetry, more like a sledgehammer.

CORSI REL DYNAMOS

corsi rel great

This is the good stuff, right here. If you told me Edmonton will have these men opening night 2016, that would be just fine with me. We have two centers (Draisaitl, McDavid), two LWs (Hall, Pouliot), two RWs (Eberle, Purcell) and two defensemen (Klefbom, Davidson). If you added Travis Hamonic and Dustin Byfuglien to this crew of eight—and you can’t—we could talk about good days and sunshine. Teddy Purcell is gone, doubt he is coming back, but I would welcome him.

CORSI RELS, GOOD NOT GREAT

CORSI REL GOOD

We are now into the grey area (mostly), where Eric Gryba and Mark Fayne show their value, but can’t help you in the power columns. Its like they have great gloves and a BA that looks good in the paper, but their OBP and SP cannot help you. Then we have Justin Schultz, who has a great bat rep from college, but can’t hit and the manager cannot find a way to hide him in the field.

Then we reach three fascinating names: Nail Yakupov, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Andrej Sekera. Nail has performed pretty well this season, really across the board (his scoring at 5×5 is pretty good compared to the rest of the league). Nuge and Sekera play the tougher competition, I would add them to next year’s team. For the team next season, I think it wise to choose between the stay-at-homes, and have chosen Fayne:

  • Hall—Nuge—Draisaitl
  • Pouliot—McDavid—Eberle
  • Yakupov
  • Klefbom—Sekera
  • Davidson—Fayne

CORSI WELL

CORSI WELL

This is the area of the CorsiRel where we are looking at people who should (all things being equal) be replaced—or have their roles produced. How many players on this list, the one that starts with Reinhart and ends with Korpikoski, would you argue for as being absolutely vital to next season for the Edmonton Oilers?

  • Hall—Nuge—Draisaitl
  • Pouliot—McDavid—Eberle
  • xxx-xxx-Yakupov
  • xxx-xxx-xxx
  • xxx-xxx
  • Klefbom—Sekera
  • xxx-xxx
  • Davidson—Fayne

That is what CorsiRel is telling me 60 games into the season. Fire all but four defensemen into the sun, keep as much of the top 6F as you can. Question: What is your method telling you? Is it giving you better advice? I want to know, because this season, as always, brought a lot of new information and ways of measuring these things. CorsiRel matches my eye, close enough for jazz, and maybe that is a crutch of mine but I will keep it. Do you have a better plan? How does your plan differ from mine? Do you come up with a different list? Thanks, looking forward to reading your thoughts.

SCHULTZ!

Schultz is heading out of town if someone wants him, suspect that is the situation as it stands. My guess  is that he will be a Monday near deadline deal, as more attractive options slip away from NHL contenders. That said, this is probably his last week as an Oiler. Per 82gp: 9-25-34.

TRADING FOR DOUGIE HAMILTON

hamilton capture1

The Edmonton Oilers and the Calgary Flames rarely hook up via trade (Staios, Smid), but I look at that Calgary roster and wonder if a deal could be worked out for the former Bruin. He is not having a monster season (58, 9-17-26) and the Flames are spending a giant sum on their blue—plus, big contracts are coming for Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. Probably nothing, just a thought.

simpson williams

Photo by Mark Williams

CULLING THE LEFT-HERD

Poor Dillon Simpson (above) is about No. 12 on the Leftorium depth chart for the Oilers, and this cannot stand, man. Peter Chiarelli needs to fix the lefty-righty thing, at least a little, because it is as unkempt as matted hair at Woodstock on Sunday morning.

  1. Andrej Sekera
  2. Oscar Klefbom
  3. Brandon Davidson
  4. Darnell Nurse
  5. Jordan Oesterle
  6. Griffin Reinhart
  7. David Musil
  8. Dillon Simpson
  9. Joey Laleggia
  10. Ben Betker

This doesn’t even bother to include certain exits like Nikita Nikitin, Andrew Ference and Brad Hunt. The righties (Fayne, Gryba, Clendening) who may be staying don’t even have enough for a quorum.

SHAKEUP???

TSN quotes Jim Matheson of the EJ this morning, as Matty has suggested the untouchables are probably Connor McDavid plus maybe Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse. I don’t believe that, but do believe the Oilers (as Friedman suggests above) have a lot of balls in the air. Makes sense. If Chiarelli feels a deal can be had now, that sets up summer in a far better way. Get your defender here, and then try to get another, plus your checking center. I continue to believe the big transaction of summer will be hiring Milan Lucic through the end of the decade and beyond.

The big questions of course, are who is coming and who is going? As I mentioned above, we spend so much time worrying about who is leaving, when really the team trading the defenseman will have an enormous impact via their ask. We don’t know what we don’t know.

Here is my trade list:

  1. RW Teddy Purcell—He is gone, suspect we will see a second-round pick (or a legit prospect).
  2. F Matt Hendricks—Chiarelli is unlikely to trade Hendricks, but there is always a chance an offer changes his mind. I recall someone mentioning there was significant interest last deadline. Second-round pick.
  3. D Mark Fayne—A bit tricky, for two reasons. He is helping now, so the Oilers could use him for the first 60 games next year and shop him at the deadline. Call it righty blue insurance. Return? Second-round pick if the Oilers retain salary (defensemen are always worth more at the deadline).
  4. D Justin Schultz—He is gone if they can find a taker, I think they will. Third-round pick.
  5. L Lauri Korpikoski—Perhaps Chiarelli can save Todd McLellan from himself. If he can trade Korpikoski, Chiarelli is a mad genius. Fifth-round pick obo.
  6. C Anton Lander—New addition because I refuse to let Gryba ruin trade deadlinemas. A team needing a very inexpensive forward as insurance might have the time. Sixth-round pick.
  7. D Eric Gryba—I think they will sign him unless a team offers up full value (and remember this is the deadline). I have no idea what he would fetch in trade, only that Mark Fayne would be a better addition for a contending team. I believe that.

blood2

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show today, as we drive toward the trade deadline with only fear and good judgement holding us back. TSN1260, 10 this morning:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Trade deadline, Leafs-Sharks deal, outdoor game.
  • Andrew Stoetson, Jays Nation. A brand new blog you will want to know about.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper and Blue, The SuperFan. We will talk deadline and Chiarelli, of predictions most foul.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you at 10!

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268 Responses to "THE LEFTORIUM"

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  1. G Money says:

    LoDog: Fayne has little control over his Corsi.
    Fayne has much more control over High Danger since that is kind of his job.
    No?

    a – correct. The influence of a defenseman over CF% is markedly less than that of the forward. This is why I would always want to include CA/60, since that accounts for shot suppression (a key defensive responsibility) in the context of time on ice.

    b – well, yes and no. If you mean HDSCA, yes, it’s the same basic idea as CA. If you mean HDSC%, then it is still a useful data point, but the same flaw exists as with CF%.

    c – and of course, to talk my own book, my favourite metric is the one I calculate after every game, DFA/60, or DangerousFenwickAgainst/60. Why?

    i. Because it uses Fenwick rather than Corsi, which means it gives credit to the team for shots blocked (even if the block was by a forward with soft hands).

    ii. It weights those Fenwicks by shot type and distance, so defensemen who push shots to the outside get credit over those who give up 20 ft slap shots and 10 ft wrist shots.

    iii. It doesn’t drop any data like HDSC does. Remember that Corsi = HDSC + MDSC + LDSC.

    So HDSC runs with about a third of the sample size as Corsi does, even though it is looking at a highly specific dataset. This obviously has an advantage in how rapidly sample size builds up (for the same reason, I would suggest that DangerFen builds as much validity in a single game as HDSC does in two and a half games).

    But DFF also penalizes players who give up a lot of shots, even if they’re good box clearers. Think of it this way: imagine a player gives up 2 H + 5 M + 10 L. That’s 17 shots, but 2 HD. Now look at a defenseman who gives up 3 + 3 + 3 in the same ice time. Realistically, is Player A better than Player B?

    If all you’re looking at is Corsi, Player B looks way better.

    If all you’re looking at is HDSC, Player A looks way better.

    DFF will weight every single one of those 17 vs 9 shots based on their danger, and give you a number for each. I’d almost bet that Player B will look better, but not by a huge margin, because of that extra high danger chance given up.

  2. spoiler says:

    I think the Polak vs Petry return is a good real-world example that there is no “set value” on a player-type.

    Externalities like the nature of the market probably have as big an effect as the player themselves.

    For eg, perhaps the other main bidder for Polak was one of ANA or LAK? Which forces SJS into giving up more than they’re bidding, not just to acquire the player, but also to prevent playing against the player.

    That’s also the danger in chasing the Looches of this world… he’s so coveted that there’s likely to be more of a bidding war than usual, which is no help to an acquiring team.

  3. Professor Q says:

    stevezie:
    G Money,

    I think the biggest part of the mystery is the importance of the lefty-righty debate. I thought you posted something confirming it was important earlier this week, but I could be mistaken.

    It’s great to have a stud, but with the right six I think can have a lot of success platooning. Nurse, Davidson and Reinhart are three fairly promising defenceman, Klef and Sekera seem like solid top 3 options to me and Fayne is a fine 3rd pairing rock. If we add just one more solid top three guy then we have a decent defence.

    Unless the lefty-righty thing really matters, then we have 5 LD and only Fayne and Clendenning (both of whom might be gone by September, or even next week). That is crazy and depressing and terrifying.

    So is their any strong data on the importance? It looks to me (based on the Oilers you sampled, which may be telling), that the answer is “yes”.

    I know the great Detroit teams and Montréal teams, let alone many others, had almost full LHD on their backsides.

  4. Caramel Batman says:

    G Money,

    I’m with you until you switch from dangerous Fenwick to Dangerous Fenwick against. If you do that you are 100% guaranteed to undervalue players that contribute offense.

    So, at a minimum, you have to use DFA + points. My preference would be a weighted formula of DFA + (weighted formula DFF + points).

  5. rickithebear says:

    G Money: a – correct.The influence of a defenseman over CF% is markedly less than that of the forward.This is why I would always want to include CA/60, since that accounts for shot suppression (a key defensive responsibility) in the context of time on ice.

    b – well, yes and no.If you mean HDSCA, yes, it’s the same basic idea as CA.If you mean HDSC%, then it is still a useful data point, but the same flaw exists as with CF%.

    c – and of course, to talk my own book, my favourite metric is the one I calculate after every game, DFA/60, or DangerousFenwickAgainst/60.Why?

    i. Because it uses Fenwick rather than Corsi, which means it gives credit to the team for shots blocked (even if the block was by a forward with soft hands).

    ii. It weights those Fenwicks by shot type and distance, so defensemen who push shots to the outside get credit over those who give up 20 ft slap shots and 10 ft wrist shots.

    iii. It doesn’t drop any data like HDSC does.Remember that Corsi = HDSC + MDSC + LDSC.

    So HDSC runs with about a third of the sample size as Corsi does, even though it is looking at a highly specific dataset.This obviously has an advantage in how rapidly sample size builds up (for the same reason, I would suggest that DangerFen builds as much validity in a single game as HDSC does in two and a half games).

    But DFF also penalizes players who give up a lot of shots, even if they’re good box clearers.Think of it this way: imagine a player gives up 2 H + 5 M + 10 L.That’s 17 shots, but 2 HD.Now look at a defenseman who gives up 3 + 3 + 3 in the same ice time.Realistically, is Player A better than Player B?

    If all you’re looking at is Corsi, Player B looks way better.

    If all you’re looking at is HDSC, Player A looks way better.

    DFF will weight every single one of those 17 vs 9 shots based on their danger, and give you a number for each.I’d almost bet that Player B will look better, but not by a huge margin, because of that extra high danger chance given up.

    I can remeber when everyone on here argued aginst my view that Shot by location and Elevation mattered.
    That corsi was not the measure of a D and Blocks; Misses and shost kept to the perimeter had a 66% affect. Most argued with great intensity that All shots were equal and D had no influence.

    It unerves me that you guys usually figure it out 3- 5 years latter after getting to look at little balls.

    What is it about the little balls that gets you so excited.

    Do you ave a preference for a kind of little balls.

    Maybe when the litlle balls grow up you can give them the situational Amplitude needed to truly trend a D.

    That is a grouping i have argued for ?. 6-7 years.

    Problem is they cannot be solved with your exciting little balls.

    You got to surf the big waves! Dude!

    Heck! I forgot Friedman likes Balls!

  6. G Money says:

    digger50: Well, since you asked…… The problem with just using CorsiRel is it is only one measurement of performance. I feel this is stating the obvious of course. The issue then is what other performance measurements can we blend in?
    This CorsiRel leaves us with the same problem. It identifies skill players. Every year we do this. I agree the Oilers have enough talent but generally miss the mark so this year the focus goes back to balance and CorsiRel cannot do that.
    It does not give provide measure of toughness – something lacking
    It does not provide measurement of veteran leadership – something lacking
    It does not provide measurement of heart and character – missing as an overall “team”
    Under these measurements I would reconsider on Gryba, Nurse, Hendricks, and Kassian.

    Let me deconstruct this, because there are a few misconceptions here, and I will address them in the spirit of sharing knowledge.

    It identifies skill players. This is not correct IMO. The best way to identify skill players is old fashioned boxcars i.e. points. CorsiRel tells you whether a player is better or worse than his teammates at getting the puck going the right way.

    You can get the puck going the right way by preventing shots on your own net, or taking shots on the other guys net, or both. Usually, players are better at one than the other.

    It does not give provide measure of toughness … veteran leadership … heart and character

    I would fold this back on you and say: what does? And secondly, even if you can point at something that can objectively measure those things independent of boxcars and shot shares (hint: you can’t), if you can’t point at the way they influence performance on the ice, do they matter?

    There’s an interesting conjecture at this point with fancystats, because often the anti-statsers (or is it flat-statsers?) take this to mean that the above three don’t matter. Actually, I’ve heard no one argue they don’t.

    All else equal, I’ll take a tough veteran with leadership and heart and character over someone lacking those things, every time.

    How will I measure those things objectively and consistently? No idea.

    But wait! What if I have a guy with subjectively high toughness and heart and character etc., and his line gets caved in every time he’s on the ice?

    Let’s just randomly call that guy, oh I dunno, “Zuke Lagdic” or “Kauri Loskikorpi”.

    Now what do I do? What have I proven? How has my team benefited?

    This is the point. Everyone will take ‘character’ if they can. But the importance of it dims when compared to skill. If I want a winner, I’ll take Patrick Kane every time, even though Matt Hendricks is unquestionably tougher, has more heart, and vastly more character.

    That other stuff matters because it has measurable impact on the ice. The fancystats measure the impact of ‘leadership’ in on ice results.

    I’ll start believing we can directly measure heart and grit when we start talking about it in boardrooms. “Ah, that guy can’t do a financial analysis worth a damn. But he’s tough! He’s got grit, he’ll be here all night! He’s got leadership, he’ll cheer on all the other guys doing the work!”

  7. stush18 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    stush18,

    He’s rocking a .901 sv% and a 3+ GAA.He had a good early run but hasn’t outperformed his contract.

    I would argue we have lots of goalie depth.We’ve got one of the very best AHL goalies who has performed well everywhere he’s played and is getting to the age where he should start to look for minutes.

    But more than that, we have the unlimited goalie depth that is the ability to pay any number of people to back up Talbot.Beyond that, we get to LB.

    There are always goalies available for NHL minutes.They will accept $1million or so per year.If Nilssen won’t then move along. No sense over paying for Nilssen because we’re familiar with him.Keep your $500,000+ for a position that needs it.

    Fair point. I also thought anders was UFA, but as Asia says I think you qualify him and leave it at that

  8. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    I have no idea what you’re talking about (shot quality has been discussed for YEARS), but I’d appreciate it if you stopped talking about my balls.

  9. LoDog says:

    Lowetide: Well, my original point is that CorsiRel is a quick easy way to reach conclusions. I have been reading all of the posts above and people responded with great stuff (and I thank all). However, I do not see a bunch of people disagreeing with my roster beyond where they should play in the lineup. CorsiRel may not be the best tool, but the other ones seem to reach the same conclusion. This is a key for me in terms of leaping from Corsi Rel to one of these new fangled items.

    WHAT is it telling me that CorsiRel does not that informs personnel decisions? I remain convinced we are on an interesting journey, but am not certain we are at a point where CorsiRel has been replaced as a tool for personnel decisions.

    Don’t most bottom 6 and players look bad by CorsiRel?

    You migh throw away all of NYI bottom 6 based on that but I would argue they have some fine players in those roles.

    Brent Seabrook should be sent packing.

  10. stevezie says:

    G Money: Actually, I paraphrased WheatNOil’s investigations with the WOWY data I published earlier.

    He did find that the pairings that involved two lefties tended to struggle moreso than natural left-right pairings.

    It wasn’t a definitive result (very few single-stat based analyses ever could be), but it was quite a telling result in light of WG’s insistence that in today’s high-pressure forecheck NHL, D handedness is a significant issue.

    Thanks to you and Wheat’n Oil. Obviously this is by no means conclusive, but it to my eye it one of the biggest issues facing the Oilers so it’s nice to get hints as to the truth.

  11. JDï™ says:

    Shinkaruk to the Flames???? Oh no, they have the McDavid antidote!

    Chia flailed again!

    Ryan Rishaug Retweeted
    AJ Jakubec ‏@AJonSports 17m17 minutes ago

    Hearing Canucks & Flames have completed a deal. Markus Granlund to VAN. Hunter Shinkaruk to CGY. Not sure what else is involved. #NHL

  12. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Did anyone ever figure out how to look at older comments? I can’t go back once we blow by 200.

    I’ll never know if someone responded to my hilarious insights and razor sharp wit.

  13. Lowetide says:

    LoDog: Don’t most bottom 6 and players look bad by CorsiRel?

    You migh throw away all of NYI bottom 6 based on that but I would argue they have some fine players in those roles.

    Brent Seabrook should be sent packing.

    I would absolutely have suggested avoiding Brent Seabrook in free agency, he is not in a good spot
    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=29&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=CHI&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+29+30+31+35+36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=285&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

  14. G Money says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Ha, funny you posted that while I was writing my other wall of text.

    Honestly, I would not combine them. There are those who are going the GAR or WAR all-encompassing statistic route, but as far as the objective part of the assessment goes, I’d prefer to continue to look at a discrete set of numbers

    – points
    – CF% / SACF% / DFF% for forwards (I am figuring out how to score adjust DFF)
    – plus DFA/60 for D
    – usage: zone starts, QoC – which is currently measured very poorly, we need a better one, QoT
    – and WOWYs

    Ideally in some sort of graphical form (as you know, I’m trying my best on that front, pending world domination) as we humans can pick up patterns in information from visuals far more easily than from tabular formats.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Did anyone ever figure out how to look at older comments?I can’t go back once we blow by 200.

    I’ll never know if someone responded to my hilarious insights and razor sharp wit.

    If you have signed in, it should be fine to go back. I would have responded earlier, but have been laughing too hard!! 🙂

  16. RexLibris says:

    So the Flames traded Baertschi, an NHL-ready winger and former 13th overall pick who averaged nearly 2ppg in his last WHL season, for a 2nd round pick, then the following year trade a player taken in the 2nd round of the same draft as Baertschi in Granlund for a winger still at least a year away from the NHL and averaging under a ppg in the AHL.

    Moving Baertschi for a 2nd was shortsighted, but predictable given Burke and Hartley’s take on him as a player.

    Getting rid of Granlund isn’t a bad thing for the team, because he hasn’t been a very effective winger compared to Jooris. Getting Shinkaruk I suppose represents value because he appears to be a nice AHL player. However, the chair shuffling between these two organizations is becoming kind of funny.

  17. G Money says:

    Professor Q,

    I think the working theory (WG’s, and I buy in) around modern handedness for D is that modern hockey systems are mostly based on a super-high-pressure forecheck, and that means that handedness is a bigger issue perhaps than it was in the past.

  18. PhrankLee says:

    Ricki,

    Moth balls and chicken balls are surprisingly huge!

    They taste about the same depending on where you order them, though.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Granlund is from the same hometown as Juha Widing iirc.

  20. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    I think it does not matter what stat or whose eyeballs you use, Seabrook is NOT having a good year.

    It would be bad for CHI and probably good for the rest of the league if that enormous new contract is kicking in just as a 30 yo with many hard (Stanley x 2) miles is starting on a Ference-esque slide downhill.

  21. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Lowetide,

    I think it does not matter what stat or whose eyeballs you use, Seabrook is NOT having a good year.

    It would be bad for CHI and probably good for the rest of the league if that enormous new contract is kicking in just as a 30 yo with many hard (Stanley x 2) miles is starting on a Ference-esque slide downhill.

    Yeah, agreed. Hawks are in trouble, unless the Oilers trade for him.

  22. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Granlund is from the same hometown as Juha Widing iirc.

    Canucks fans apparently hate the trade, and rightly so.

    Flames fans are either encouraged (because they are welcoming any and all trades that, the hope, lead inevitably to a Russell-for-a-1st-round-pick move) or ambivalent.

    I’m curious to see if Burke does to the Flames what he did to the Leafs – and anyone who still believes that Treliving has complete autonomy here hasn’t been paying attention – in pushing the team back to mediocrity or something like it.

  23. fifthcartel says:

    Very curious what Friedman means by the ‘major move should they choose to do it’.

  24. Snowman says:

    Lowetide,

    Nuge for Seabrook.

    Obviously.

    Because Oilers.

    Kill me now.

  25. wheatnoil says:

    Twitter informs me that the Canucks are still in the “enraged” phase of bad management.

    They have a long ways to go until they reach “comfortably numb” status of most Oilers fans. (h/t to RexLibris).

  26. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, agreed. Hawks are in trouble, unless the Oilers trade for him.

    Old Oilers would have seen Seabrook as a panacea.

    Chiarelli I’m less inclined to think so. More so since he’s already seen what happens when you heed the advice of the people who got themselves fired for regressing a team that was already the worst in the league.

  27. LoDog says:

    Thoughts on:
    AlexPietrangelo – barely makes the good not great
    Carl Gunnarsson and Jay Bouwmeester well down in the should be replaced category.

  28. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil:
    Twitter informs me that the Canucks are still in the “enraged” phase of bad management.

    They have a long ways to go until they reach “comfortably numb” status of most Oilers fans. (h/t to RexLibris).

    They do have an advantage out there though. All that yoga and free-trade soy-latte will help to calm the nerves and move them into a zen-state where Benning and Linden are perceived as merely avatars of Kali on the Great Mandala of Hockey Existence.

    Tambellini was our Shiva/Kali, and I can honestly say that the fans, during his tenure, were Shiva’d more often than not.

  29. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, agreed. Hawks are in trouble, unless the Oilers trade for him.

    I think they dodged a big bullet last summer.

  30. RexLibris says:

    fifthcartel:
    Very curious what Friedman means by the ‘major move should they choose to do it’.

    My guess is all that Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle talk earlier lit some fires and Chiarelli has lots of suitors now.

    If he’s working this properly he’ll use all those calls to say he can’t move either (injured and just playing well with McDavid, gotta see what he can do) to keep the GMs on the line about his many other deals available for a limited time only. OAC.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: If you have signed in, it should be fine to go back. I would have responded earlier, but have been laughing too hard!!

    Can this not get fixed?

    Shouldn’t have to sign in to simply review the comment thread.

  32. hunter1909 says:

    RexLibris: Chiarelli I’m less inclined to think so. More so since he’s already seen what happens when you heed the advice of the people who got themselves fired for regressing a team that was already the worst in the league.

    After 3/4 of a season, I wonder what Chiarelli thinks of Kevin Lowe, or MacT re moving the team forward.

  33. Ducey says:

    Don Mattingly, manager of the Marlins, has ordered all his players to be clean shaven.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/don-mattingly-enforces-no-facial-hair-rule-marlins-article-1.2539422

    Looks like he picked up a thing or two from his softball days.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    Centre of attention: I think they dodged a big bullet last summer.

    Yet according to some posters, Nurse can’t get traded out of town fast enough.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, agreed. Hawks are in trouble, unless the Oilers trade for him.

    I wouldn’t rule that out btw.

    Summer time though.

  36. G Money says:

    Lowetide: WHAT is it telling me that CorsiRel does not that informs personnel decisions? I remain convinced we are on an interesting journey, but am not certain we are at a point where CorsiRel has been replaced as a tool for personnel decisions.

    Ah! Well! There’s a bit of a rub in that statement. Wouldn’t it be fair to say that your roster is actually only lightly informed by CorsiRel? (and that those who prefer other measures want a measure that can more heavily inform the roster?)

    What I mean by lightly is that your proposed defense is this:
    Klefbom—Sekera
    xxx-xxx
    Davidson—Fayne

    And I suspect this fits well with most mental models based on a blend of “seen ‘im” and a combo of fancystats.

    But if we were to honestly look at what CorsiRel is telling us, your pairings would have to be this (I’ve ignored handedness and just put in order of descending CFRel):

    Klefbom-Davidson
    Gryba-Schultz
    Fayne-Sekera

    Sekera is 6D by CFRel! Gryba is 3D.

    If those conclusions are not to stand, if we assert (rightly IMO) that Sekera is likely 2D, at some point, there was a tremendous amount of interpretation and blending in of many other points of knowledge to put on paper the actual four man D proposal, no?

    That’s why we don’t take issue with it – because of all that other hefty LT knowledge rolled in, not because of CFRel.

    Given the substantial difference between the two lineups, that’s why I have to say CFRel lightly informed the decision. I’m certain it played a part. I’m also certain it played a minor part!

    In my ideal world, you’d want a statistic or set of statistics that produces something closer to your four man list than the six man list generated purely by CFRel.

    The question of course is whether that set of stats is available now or not, and it’s a fine discussion to have.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Can this not get fixed?

    Shouldn’t have to sign in to simply review the comment thread.

    I don’t know how to fix it, so beyond my apologies, no.

  38. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    Woodguy,

    AH GORDS!!

    You know how it’s fashionable on the Twitter machine to respond #OFDTO (Oiler fans deserve the Oilers) when some bonehead posts some idiotic ‘solution’ to the Oiler woes?

    As funny as that is, the reality is that in the big picture, this is a ludicrously loyal and knowledgeable fan base, subject to 10 years of abuse and shit sandwiches from Oiler management.

    The correct hashtag should be #ODDOF – Oilers don’t deserve Oiler fans – and I do fear that shit sandwiches continue to be the feature plate on the menu.

  39. Lowetide says:

    G Money: Ah! Well! There’s a bit of a rub in that statement.Wouldn’t it be fair to say that your roster is actually only lightly informed by CorsiRel?(and that those who prefer other measures want a measure that can more heavily inform the roster?)

    What I mean by lightly is that your proposed defense is this:
    Klefbom—Sekera
    xxx-xxx
    Davidson—Fayne

    And I suspect this fits well with most mental models based on a blend of “seen ‘im” and a combo of fancystats.

    But if we were to honestly look at what CorsiRel is telling us, your pairings would have to be this (I’ve ignored handedness and just put in order of descending CFRel):

    Klefbom-Davidson
    Gryba-Schultz
    Fayne-Sekera

    Sekera is 6D by CFRel!Gryba is 3D.

    If those conclusions are not to stand, if we assert (rightly IMO) that Sekera is likely 2D, at some point, therewas a tremendous amount of interpretation and blending in of many other points of knowledge to put on paper the actual four man D proposal, no?

    That’s why we don’t take issue with it – because of all that other hefty LT knowledge rolled in, not because of CFRel.

    Given the substantial difference between the two lineups, that’s why I have to say CFRel lightly informed the decision.I’m certain it played a part.I’m also certain it played a minor part!

    In my idea world, you’d want a statistic or set of statistics that produced something closer to your four man list than the six man list generated purely by CFRel.

    The question of course is whether that set of stats is available now or not, and it’s a fine discussion to have.

    I don’t know that we will get there in my lifetime. Hope we do, and hope it is soon. 🙂 I am fascinated by these new metrics but am unsure of their real value. Would a GM make a trade based on the cutting edge numbers you are producing? Or would he need a few years to trust them? I think we are pushing to a new tomorrow, just not sure we have completely escaped yesterday.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Quick look at Seabrook and it seems Van Riemsdyk is a big drag

    Seabrook seems to have rookie duty for most of the year

    Partner—- TOI together—– CF% together

    SEABROOK, BRENT 1078:06 47.7%
    VAN_RIEMSDYK, TREVOR 344:36 41.4%
    SVEDBERG, VIKTOR 222:06 49.9%
    GUSTAFSSON, ERIK 214:58 48.6%
    HJALMARSSON, NIKLAS 160:37 49%
    KEITH, DUNCAN 84:06 60.3%

    Funny thing is Van Reimsdyk is 52.9%CF away from Seabrook. Luckily for VR his two main partners after Seabrook are Hjarlm and Keith.

    Oil and water pairing apparently.

  41. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    That was what I thought too. Though the full season dashboard suggests that Seabrook’s struggles are not entirely VR’s fault:

    http://i.imgur.com/k8GBdW8.png

  42. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    G,

    Can you run DFF% WOWY for NYI?

    Hamonic has played more with Leddy than De Haan this year and I’d like to get to the bottom of Hamonic’s poor HDSCA/60 number.

    Its not good:

    Calvin.De.Haan 10.2
    Johnny.Boychuk 10.79
    Marek.Zidlicky 11.82
    Nick.Leddy 11.86
    Travis.Hamonic 12.25
    Thomas.Hickey 13.56
    Brian.Strait 13.62

    Hamonic is near the bottom of the league in this metric and wouldn’t mind seeing his effect on Dpair mates.

    Note: Given than Hamonic usually gets the majority of the tougher match ups I’d expect the number s to fall with him a bit, but want to see if its a cliff.

  43. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    That was what I thought too.Though the full season dashboard suggests that Seabrook’s struggles are not entirely VR’s fault:

    http://i.imgur.com/k8GBdW8.png

    His next 2 most common partners are rooks too though and you *know* they’re playing 2nds. Not a fun chore.

  44. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    CHI vs. MIN.

    Seabrook’s TOI and CF% with various partners:

    Viktor Svedberg 8:45 41.67% (5-7)
    Trevor van Riemsdyk 4:58 27.27% (3-8)
    Duncan Keith 3:58 81.82% (9-2)

    Looks like his season in a nutshell

  45. G Money says:

    Lowetide: Would a GM make a trade based on the cutting edge numbers you are producing? Or would he need a few years to trust them?

    It’s a good question.

    You know, I wouldn’t even call DFF ‘cutting edge’.

    I deliberately eschewed the more sophisticated math models that go into e.g. DTM’s or Nick Abe’s statistics (both of whom call them expected goals), because they represent a black box that makes me nervous assessing the results. It’s not that I can’t (trust me…) run those models, but I chose not to.

    It’s become fashionable in the hockey stats world to overuse multiple regression (“when you have a hammer …”) as a basis for modeling – such models assume linear relationships, and one thing we know about hockey is that most of the relationships are NOT linear – and then stick to the model results even when they produce suspicious real world results (e.g. Steve Burtsch’s dCorsi is a good example).

    DFF is deliberately built to avoid that black box effect. The model is simple: every shot gets weighted by its probability of scoring. How did I calculate that probability? By looking at five years of shot type and shot probability data, and using a nice smoothing model (LOESS) to estimate the probability.

    There is virtue in simplicity! It’s not a black box at all, and I even publish my weighting spreadsheet, so you could manually calculate DFF if you wanted to.

    It is the same model that Michael Parkatti used (which he ironically also called expected goals, a reason why I’ve also deliberately eschewed that name!). The difference between mine and his is that he basically handpicked his math models and then flatlined the data outside his data bounds.

    This produces two serious problems: he’s arbitrarily picked a curve that ‘looks best’ for each shot type, which means he’s not really trying to figure out the ‘true’ underlying relationship, which usually means an overfit problem. (Overfit means your model fits the test data well, but fails on new data). The flatlining is obviously also a problem.

    Even so, he did do some preliminary work showing that his model was as good or better than Corsi – which is why I haven’t been in any particular hurry to run those same tests. DFF is Parkatti’s expected goals, but with a better math model (it’s the same smoothing model for all shot types rather than handpicked one that looks good, and I use regression outside the bounds, providing a curve that mathematically, logically, and visually fits the data in and out of bounds).

    It’s that simplicity that actually gives me confidence. It’s not a black box – it takes good old fashioned Fenwicks, weights by shot type and distance (both of which intuitively should make sense), and spits out a weighted number that intuitively should match what is happening out on the ice better than the raw number. It has a big weakness in ignoring shot angle (I have this, haven’t rolled it in yet), but as approx 70% of shots come from +-60 degrees, the errors resulting from this tend to be drowned out fairly rapidly by the data volume.

    (And in practice, as I’ve watched pretty much every game and then looked at the numbers after, DFF generally does consistently match the game and the players better than the raw statistics)

    The issue we may be facing is how much better we can get … the ‘great’ in this case may be an enemy of the good, in that ‘good’ is all we can achieve with publicly available data.

  46. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Ouch.

    Woodguy,

    I’ll run NYI when I get home.

  47. Factotum says:

    I’d LOVE to see DFF%Rel, but failing that I like HSCF%Rel.

    Player performance for the two seasons *prior* to signing with the Oilers:

    Andrew Ference (2011-2013, Boston)
    HSCF%Rel -6.11
    #171 of 180 defensemen with minimum 970 minutes played 5×5 2011-2013

    Nikita Nikitin (2012-2014, Columbus)
    HSCF%Rel -4.93
    #167 of 180 defensemen with minimum 970 minutes played 5×5 2012-2014

    Eric Gryba (2013-2015, Ottawa)
    HSCF%Rel -2.66
    #144 of 181 defensemen with min. 1355 5×5 mins. 2013-2015

    Andrej Sekera (2013-2015, Carolina, LA)
    HSCF%Rel -1.84
    #123 of 181 defensemen with min. 1355 5×5 mins.

    (If you’re curious, Jeff Petry was +3.08, #28 of 181 during the same time period.)

    Now let me say that I think “Rej” Sekera is a very good 2nd pairing Dman, and that there are some things I like in Gryba’s game, but overall…
    If they’ve been trying to improve, the OIlers have been shopping at the wrong store. Except for Mark Fayne. I would have predicted that he would work out far better than he has.

    Mark Fayne (2012-2014, New Jersey)
    HSCF%Rel +5.10
    #18 of 180 defensemen with min. 970 5×5 mins 2012-2014

    (Andy Greene was HSCF%Rel +8.30, #3 of 180 during the same period, so maybe Fayne’s partner in NJ had something to do with it.)

    Just for giggles, here’s Oscar Klefbom (2014-2016, Edmonton):
    HSCF%Rel +6.55
    #5 of 180 defensemen with min. 1050 5×5 mins 2014-2016, just ahead of my favorite Dman “Pickles” Vlasic.

    (All stats from WOI. I filtered seasons by minimum TOI to get ~ the top 180 in minutes played (30 teams x 6 dmen) as I could.)

  48. G Money says:

    Factotum: I’d LOVE to see DFF%Rel, but failing that I like HSCF%Rel.

    My scripts actually generate DFF% Rel for every player, every D pair, and every forward line after each game.

    Of course, I edit and sanitize that enormous volume of information for the actual posting.

    Early in the season, I used to post the full generated data file for download. But I stopped after it was obvious that almost no one was actually accessing that file (and understandably so).

    Man those files have a lot of info though!

    This is from the Chicago game on Nov 8th https://app.box.com/s/1zqsjfx2bw30yd2qkq9fs56btn5308aj

  49. pocession charge says:

    Seabrook looks like he has lost a step or two this year. He’s not Gryba slow now; more like Reinhart slow. He’ll be Ryan Whitney before that contract is done.

  50. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, agreed. Hawks are in trouble, unless the Oilers trade for him.

    I’m with you I hope this doesn’t happen

  51. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    What happened to Vollman.

    I like Vollman .

  52. RexLibris says:

    Cam Tucker Verified account
    ‏@CamTucker_Metro

    #Canucks Benning says Shinkaruk liked to score but “we don’t know if that translates to the NHL.”

    Chiarelli needs to call up his old buddy and tell him all about how much the Canucks missed out on Justin Schultz.

    Edler would be fair compensation, right?

  53. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    What happened to Vollman.

    I like Vollman .

    Me too. I will have him on again soon.

  54. mustang says:

    verite:
    stush18,

    stush18,

    Watch the games like all real fans do.
    I’ve watched more Oiler hockey since their inception.
    I’ve invested as much money on this misgotten team as most of you.
    I don’t need your license for commentary.

    The reality is the Oilers are in last place.
    That is all on Chiarelli. No urgency. None.
    This is reality.

    All I need to refer you to is that Chiarelli insists on playing Schultz, Nikitin, Ference etc.
    He will doom the Oiler fan base to 8 weeks of non-hockey as he auditions a succession of aimless prospects.
    We have seen this horror show, season after season.

    So rebut this reality.
    Chiarelli will move out some functional players for nothing. Deluding the fan base that better things ahead. Never happens.
    Just more endless rebuild.
    His self-interest is to stretch out this rebuild endlessly.
    But he is not the man who buys tickets!

    You know something, you are a very passionate fan that has had enough. You should maybe consider following another sport as well, or doing a different sport. Something that takes your mind off the state of the Oilers, it’s clouding your perception of PC. Yes they are in last place but Chiarelli isn’t responsible for the past nine years

  55. pells says:

    Long time reader, first time poster. So much is said about our defence and rightfully so. But to me just as important is leadership, grit and the willingness to do whatever it takes to win. We don’t have it. This just can’t come from role players like Hendy, it has to come from your best players. Aka Toews, Kopitar, Lucic all players by the way on the teams that have won the last 6-7 cups. I know we missed out on Buff, but another player available on that same team that embodies all of these qualities is Ladd. I would do whatever it takes to get him. Imagine Ladd and then signing Lucic. Now your talking. You could keep the defense as it is and with these two make the playoffs next year. I know these two will require 12-14 million. Eberle and Shultz would save 9.5 and believe me you won’t miss Eberle with these guys being inserted. We need to start looking at character, leadership and determination. This is what we are lacking. If we just want skill we could have kept Shremp and Omark. Have to play every game like it’s your last. Anyway needed to vent. Love your articles

  56. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    Did you run St Louis this am ? If so, disregard my late to party entrance.

    I’d like to see who is carrying who on that Canes D…..maybe there is an offer sheet waiting for Joe Pesce’s nephew ?

  57. flyfish1168 says:

    pells:
    Long time reader, first time poster. So much is said about our defence and rightfully so. But to me just as important is leadership, grit and the willingness to do whatever it takes to win. We don’t have it. This just can’t come from role players like Hendy, it has to come from your best players. Aka Toews, Kopitar, Lucic all players by the way on the teams that have won the last 6-7 cups. I know we missed out on Buff, but another player available on that same team that embodies all of these qualities is Ladd. I would do whatever it takes to get him. Imagine Ladd and then signing Lucic. Now your talking. You could keep the defense as it is and with these two make the playoffs next year. I know these two will require 12-14 million. Eberle and Shultz would save 9.5 and believe me you won’t miss Eberle with these guys being inserted. We need to start looking at character, leadership and determination. This is what we are lacking. If we just want skill we could have kept Shremp and Omark. Have to play every game like it’s your last. Anyway needed to vent. Love your articles

    Post more often. You have said what I have said before. Leadership is somethings you can’t measure on the ice or locker room.

    Here is Toews tweet to Shaw on game day

    http://www2.tsn.ca/bardown/Story.aspx?Jonathan%2BToews%2Babsolutely%2Broasted%2BAndrew%2BShaw%2Bafter%2Bfinally%2Bjoining%2BTwitter&id=573355

  58. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    Did you run St Louis this am ? If so, disregard my late to party entrance.

    I’d like to see who is carrying who on that Canes D…..maybe there is an offer sheet waiting for Joe Pesce’s nephew ?
    Woodguy,

    Seabrook has always looked like what Huddy was to Coffey. Dman are occasionally magic in the right pairs, so the issue with Seabrook’ss huge contract is that as he slides down the roster, his usefulness erodes very quickly. He’s great at separating players from the puck, moving bodies and a solid , but unspectacular passer. If he has to carry the load on a pair he’s not guy, but when he’s with Keith, you get 125% Duncan Keith and that’s a thing.

    I would anchor my top 2 D pairs with Keith and Hjarlmson all friggin day (I cant be bothered to spell his name) without ever looking back. The issue is where to fit Hjarmlmosn’s next contract in that mess because he rightfully should be the guy earning the 6M.

  59. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Good fucking grief, please tell me that cant happen.

  60. Gret99zky says:

    pells,

    I get what you’re saying. This team needs more character, toughness, willingness to do what it takes to win.

    But leaving the defense the same is a recipe for disaster. A proven recipe.

    Someone needs to get these forwards the puck with momentum.

    Ladd and Lucic, trapped in their own zone each shift won’t deliver us from the basement.

  61. square_wheels says:

    Professor Q,

    When you play your off-side you often end up with the puck in the Dzone or neutral zone on your forehand towards the middle of the ice (that’s bad, especially for turnovers). It forces more pucks into the middle, just with that extra second it takes to identify a passing lane thats possibly going to get cutoff immediately.

    Unless you are an elite skater and puck handler, and have ice in your veins, you get exposed often and the results are usually ugly odd man rushes against.

    Keeping the puck towards the boards, using your body as shelter and worst case, sauce of the boards and out, is easy for traditional handedness.

    Oddly enough though, when a player does attack from the boards on someone playing their correct side (RHS/RHD for example), its slightly beneficial to be offhanded. The reason I say this is many D prefer/have a tendency to be stronger separating players with their opposite sides. Schultz, being maybe a poor example, struggles with leverage on his left side, as you have to turn to your right and try and catch the attacking player with your left shoulder, which leaves you either getting the elbow up or you’re late that 0.5 Mississippi and he squirts by you.

    Dang, I could explain this better if I was Nick Kypreos and you were Strombo and we had the stage on HNiC.

    Or maybe Schultz is just a shitty dman that gets beat one on one way too often.

  62. Walter Sobchak says:

    stevezie,

    Thing about Kreider is he can face punch if he needs to, YouTube is filled with Kreider fights, you’re right in that his offence is limited but then again so was Pouliot before he came to Edmonton.

    His possession stats are good, but the biggest thing is he stacks up well against the western conference players and plays on the edge at times.

    If T-Mac and Chiarelli are serious about three strong lines then Hall – Kreider – Pouliot on the LW side is money well spent.

    As you mentioned earlier he’s a gamer come playoffs.

    IMO I think Kreider is money better spent than Lucic long term if you could get ether.

  63. Klam says:

    Something needs to change in the dynamic of the Oilers. One thing I know for sure is the Oilers need some toughness. Not just fighting, but sticking up for their position on the ice. Sticking up for their teammates, hating to lose and so you do what it takes to not keel over. Toughness in making the other team earn every shift.

    Those guys that bring that…..DO NOT TRADE, unless you have something coming back in toughness..

    We have a couple of those guys.

    Hendricks – does everything he can and more, i would put another on the Oilers right away.
    Nurse – rough around the edges, but man he is tough.
    Kassian – Tough, still waiting to see if the other issues along with the skill part make him worthwhile
    Gryba – stick up for teammates, plays hard to the whistle, willing to go after

    Hendricks might be wearing out his body and not be able to commit to that game for very long. Man do we need someone else to step into that leadership and tough role. Nurse as a rookie shows the league not to mess around. He needs to be an Oiler for a Decade and a half! Four guys on a roster of 23 does not cut it!

    Honorable mentions – McDavid – fights through players, skates around em, picks up his stick with a broken collar bone. Davidson – I am starting to see some feisty with him. Hits, but picks his spots, plays a smarter game. RNH – Battles every shift, one fight, but doesn’t quit Hall – starting to see pushback in his game. Not just the skate away after someone beats on him. Draisaitl – might see him push this, hope he doesn’t become Thornton 2.0(because we want Stanley)

    Not everyone needs to be in the top four. Not everyone needs to be an honorable mention. But to see McDavid and Davidson not back down seems to be lost on some of the players before them.

    This does not always show up on the score sheet and is sometimes really hard to quantify, but I tell you the one thing I think McLellan missed during his playoff runs with the Sharks was that grit and fight. If we want Stanley, which I am assuming we do, we need that grit and toughness.

    Klefbom is an amazing D-man and I wouldn’t trade a healthy Kbom. I sure hope he has a long and healthy career for us, but man he does not bring the mean that Nurse does. I would not trade Nurse now, or anywhere in the near future unless we see that he just isn’t going to be a Top 4. His intensity and grit make me keep him all day, every day. Something the Oilers have been lacking since we shipped Smid and Staios out, and Nurse has the potential to be like Pronger? Who makes the other team hate playing that shift against the Oilers? Punishes them for being near our net? We have two defensemen and two forwards that take to that task. The top 4 of my post. Argue with me that Chicago, or LA dont have that grit. They go about it differently but man they both have it. How about those Canucks? Sedin brothers are some skilled players but come playoff time its easier to get them off their game. How about those Sharks that were so dominant during the regular season?

  64. kooler says:

    There should be a points per fight stat for PC.

    Walter Sobchak,

    Walter Sobchak:
    stevezie,

    Thing about Kreider is he can face punch if he needs to, YouTube is filled with Kreider fights, you’re right in that his offence is limited but then again so was Pouliot before he came to Edmonton.

    His possession stats are good, but the biggest thing is he stacks up well against the western conference players and plays on the edge at times.

    If T-Mac and Chiarelli are serious about three strong lines then Hall – Kreider – Pouliot on the LW side is money well spent.

    As you mentioned earlier he’s a gamer come playoffs.

    IMO I think Kreider is money better spent than Lucic long term if you could get ether.

  65. pells says:

    Gret99zky,

    I agree we do need a puck moving number 1 deman. No denying that. But I really like what is starting to bubble under with Sekera, Nurse, Klefbom, and I love The direction that Davidson is heading. Just saying that our problem isn’t just the defense as many fans and media keep saying. You can tell already Mcdavid is the guy that will carry us. His doggid determination on the puck, never giving up on a play, hating to loose along with being the best player on the team. No one else on the team has this. You don’t have to fighting and putting people through the boards. It is doing whatever it takes. No doubt we need a number 1 D. But I would bet that these two forwards would do a lot more for this team then a PK Subban

  66. Pechetr says:

    While I don’t disagree with the values Lowetide has assigned to the players heading out of town, Can all those holes be filled with NHL caliber players over the summer? Lord knows we don’t need more prospects in the line-up next year. Unless those picks become currency for other NHL ready players. Otherwise it is yesterday all over again.

  67. Professor Q says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    What happened to Vollman.

    I like Vollman .

    Reminds me of Vale of the Vole by Piers Anthony.

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