TOP 20 PROSPECTS UPDATE (2016 EDITION)

The Edmonton Oilers best prospects are graduating this spring. Those prospects are sensational young players, but make no mistake: They are leaving behind a very poor prospect list. Among the alarm bells going off in Peter Chiarelli’s brain, behind defensemen who can play, value contracts and the power play, re-stocking the prospect shelves has to be high on the priority list.

  • Edmonton Journal, 1969: ”We couldn’t believe the way the draft went, it was ridiculous,” said Del Wilson, Montreal’s Director of Player Personnel. ‘‘We got 10 of our top thirty-three. We were hoping to fluke out and maybe get four.” Wilson quotes (Sam) Pollock as saying after the draft: ”We’ve either got the best or the worst scouting staff in the world.” Source

Montreal, in 1969, received the first and second round picks due to a ridiculous rule I won’t bore you with, suffice to say it skewed the balance of power in the NHL to an insane extent and it is a rule the league should have been ashamed of—and they did abolish it after 1969. Problem? Montreal received Rejean Houle and Marc Tardif from the rule, effectively robbing expansion teams from getting a shot at a brilliant two-way forward and terrific scorer, respectively. Incredible.

Despite all the hoopla about getting 10 of their 33, Montreal didn’t fare all that well. Bobby Sheehan was a fleet center with some skill, but Montreal missed on their other selections. In fact, by the time Montreal chose Sheehan No. 32 overall, most of the best talent had been taken. Names included Bobby Clarke, Ivan Boldirev, Andre Dupont, Ron Stackhouse and Dick Redmond. Montreal missed on later gems like Butch Goring, Don Saleski, Brian Spencer and others. It is very important to maximize draft picks, understanding that after a certain point the chances of getting an actual player is basically a crap shoot. Edmonton needs a watershed draft in 2016. Will they get one? Here is an update on the Oilers top prospects from my winter list.

nurse and mcdavid by connor mah

photo by Connor Mah

  1. C Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (28, 12-19-31). Since I wrote about him in November, he has returned and posted 15, 7-12-19 while pushing many nights. He graduates from the top 20 and is the most important asset for team building in the NHL today. Oilers must pinch themselves daily over their incredible fortune. Generational talent.
  2. C Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers (55, 16-28-44). Another graduate, he has posted 50, 13-24-37 since I wrote about him for the top 20. Draisaitl has been so impressive over the season it is possible to entertain the idea of building a three-scoring line offense as early as next season. Unicorns? Unicorns. Big C with speed and skill.
  3. D Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers (55, 2-6-8). The third graduate from the winter list, he is 46, 1-3-4 since I wrote about him for the top 20 prospects (the offense has dried up completely). Defensemen take time to develop, and Nurse would probably have benefited from more time in Bakersfield. I like his long-term future, but playing time in Edmonton next season may be harder to find. Future shutdown defender.
  4. W Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (11, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 7-3-10). Had a tremendous training camp, but slowed during the regular year (he was in the minors when I wrote about him) and had injury issues in Bakersfield. This is an NHL talent, and I think he might be able to establish himself as a scorer. Important for Edmonton to develop players like Slepyshev, they can’t be pissing away talented players. That said, I could see Slepyshev bolting back to the KHL for next season. Skill winger with size, not a lock to become an NHL player.
  5. D Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (25, 1-7-8). So much has been written about GR, it is almost impossible to talk about him without bias entering the conversation. He is 22, he is not a typical No. 4 overall, and playing in Bakersfield appears to be the best place for him at this time. The Oilers are enjoying the results of Brandon Davidson’s 150 AHL games, perhaps we should wait in writing off Reinhart. It was an overpay, that is not something Reinhart should answer for, now or later. Developing defenseman.
  6. G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (1, 0.93 .970) and Bakersfield Condors (28, 2.69 .919). Along with Brandon Davidson, the feel good development story of this season is Brossoit. He will be a prospect on next winter’s top 20, but he may do it as a full-time member of the Oilers. Craig MacTavish takes a lot of heat, and deservedly, but that was a good trade. Emerging goaltender.
  7. G Anders Nilsson, Edmonton Oilers (26, 3.14 .901). Had an fascinating Oilers career in about a six month time frame. From curio to impressive to wobbly to gone, that is one quick episode. Now in St. Louis, we wish him well. Gone.
  8. D Brandon Davidson, Edmonton Oilers (48, 4-6-10). He was 12, 2-2-4 when I wrote about him, 36, 2-4-6 since then. Davidson has emerged as a complete defender, a five-year overnight sensation. Thrilled for him, he appears to be taking on more of a role in special teams. May be a top 4D as soon as next season—in fact, he is playing there now. The new Fernando Pisani.
  9. D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (60, 17-41-58). Bear is enjoying a terrific season in the WHL and is trending well ahead of expectations. Very important not to overreact to this season, it is a long road. That said, you can only play the games in front of you and Bear has been splendid. Promising defensive prospect.
  10. R Iiro Pakarinen, Edmonton Oilers (51, 4-4-8). Since I wrote about him, he is 33, 1-4-5 and that lack of offense makes him vulnerable for next season. One thing we need to remember about the Oilers is this: They are going to get bigger (he is 6.01, 215) and more experienced (he is 24, with 68 NHL games). There may be a role for him, but it is not guaranteed. Pakarinen is the sixth player in the top 10 who will not be on the summer list (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Nilsson, Davidson, Pakarinen). Checking or depth winger.
  11. C Bogdan Yakimov, Bakersfield Condors (19, 3-4-7) and Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik (11, 3-1-4). A frustrated Yakimov bolted back to the KHL, and his return date is unknown. A giant (6.05, 232) center, he would seem to be a useful player when he develops, but the offense didn’t spike in year two. It is anyone’s guess in regard to Yakimov as a solution next season, probably wise to bet against him returning. Giant flight risk. Update: The day after this post was published, Yakimov returned to NA and the Condors. Wildly encouraging news.
  12. F Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (32, 8-14-22). A very encouraging season from the big forward (he is 6.03, 214), very impressive in both cities. Khaira has one more year of his entry-level deal, and I can see him playing in Edmonton part-time again next year. Rugged forward with some skill.
  13. D Caleb Jones, Portland Winterhawks (63, 10-39-49). I read a lot about these young prospects, before the draft and then I drill down on information after the draft, too. Everything I read about Jones suggested he was a little shy offensively. That appears to be false, and we could be looking at a more complete player. These are early days, but factoring in this offense, and the fact his Dad was an athlete and his brother is extremely successful in the same sport, this is a player to watch. Complete skill set appears to be his resume.
  14. C Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (39, 5-10-15). Platzer is somewhat similar to Kyle Brodziak in his early days—not exactly setting the world on fire. He isn’t playing as much as some of the prospects ahead of him on this list, one hopes he gets more playing time next season. Two-way center under the radar.
  15. D Ziyat Paigin, Kazan Ak Bars (8, 0-1-1) and Sochi HC (37, 9-18-27). Paigin’s progress this season has been incredible, to the point where he might rank as the No. 1 prospect on the list heading into the draft this summer (remember, most of the top ten graduates). Big (6.06, 210) and effective. A giant on the way.
  16. D William Lagesson, UMass-Amherst (25, 2-5-7). Mobile defender impressed Oilers fans at the world juniors, and will probably move up the list in summer. Looks like his defensive skills are the greatest part of his game, he is a promising young player. Promising defensive defenseman.
  17. D Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (45, 7-16-23). Laleggia has had an unusual season, including time on left wing where some believe he has played his best hockey. He is terrifically skilled and running a pro power play seems to be something he will be good at as he matures at that level. There are defensive issues, but the coverage aspect appears to be improving. Offensive defenseman with rover rising.
  18. D Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (39, 2-10-12). Simpson is a quiet prospect, you have to pay close attention to get much information. He is progressing as a defenseman, and recently had a slight uptick in the offense (1-5-6 in his last 10) and that may be due to callups for other Condors blue. Very difficult player to assess, as was Brandon Davidson. Slow, steady progress for steady defenseman.
  19. R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (26, 15-9-24). Chase is performing well in both cities, but you can’t ignore the fact he is getting more playing time in the ECHL. I see that as an benefit for this player, as he can hit the ground running next season ala Mark Arcobello and Josh Winquist in previous seasons. Agitating winger with offense, has a long way to go.
  20. D John Marino, Tri-City Storm (43, 3-22-25). Among the impressive 2015 draftees (this top 20 houses five names called in that draft. A smooth skater with a range of skills, we are miles away from knowing him as a player. All of the indicators look good, plenty of good arrows. Puck-moving defenseman with wheels.

I will do the 21-40 update sometime in the next few days. To give you an idea about how many players will graduate, and how little there is developing under the NHL level, here is what my top 10 would look like currently (using this 20 minus graduates):

  1. D Ziyat Paigin
  2. G Laurent Brossoit
  3. C Jujhar Khaira
  4. D Griffin Reinhart
  5. W Anton Slepyshev
  6. D Ethan Bear
  7. C Bogdan Yakimov
  8. D Caleb Jones
  9. D John Marino
  10. D William Lagesson

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99 Responses to "TOP 20 PROSPECTS UPDATE (2016 EDITION)"

  1. Glass says:

    What can be done to prevent players like Slepyshev & Yakimov from bolting? Do you walk away from older players like Miller & Hamilton to give others more ice time? I’d hate to see Slepyshev go, more so than Yakimov.

  2. mujidog says:

    Chia needs to ask himself if he can trust the judgement of the person(s) that pushed for Griffin Reinhart. If not, let them go.

  3. stush18 says:

    Glass:
    What can be done to prevent players like Slepyshev & Yakimov from bolting? Do you walk away from older players like Miller & Hamilton to give others more ice time? I’d hate to see Slepyshev go, more so than Yakimov.

    I walk away from al of the vets basically, other than miller, because he plays center and right wing, scores (which pumps up the prospects numbers), and can actually be used as a depth recall.

    Turf everyone else.

  4. Centre of attention says:

    “Hall is certainly in the mix of players we can to keep an eye on. His performance at the Worlds last year stood out for us.” Armstrong on Hall being a possible add for the World Cup

    I’m betting he would of been on the initial 16 if he didn’t go threw that January-February slump. If he picks it up in the next 15 games he will be named hands down.

    The thing that bugged me was JT Miller over Nuge. I guess they want to see him in his last 10 games and make the call. Chiarelli pretty much telegraphed adding him in the next 7.

  5. stush18 says:

    LT I’m not sure what it is, but seeing Reinhart behind slepyshev at the start of the year made me unreasonably angry lol

    Similar feelings right now about JJ, although I might just be overreacting again.

    DAMN LISTS!!

  6. mujidog says:

    Disappointing that Taylor Hall continues to be punished for being an Edmonton Oiler, but… they didn’t even have room for Corey Perry today. Ah well. Hopefully he makes the final team. Same with the Nuge. It’s understandable.

  7. Big Dan says:

    mujidog,

    And replace them with the guy who found paigan.

    Defensemen retain their value. Look at Schultz. Reinhart is going to lose the numbers game here in Edmonton. Too many left d above him and below.

    But he will be useful trade bait/ sweetener to fill out other holes. He is going to have a Braydon Coburn like career somewhere. He’s just going to take some time. I’m rooting for him.

  8. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    I’m surprised Simpson, Lagesson and Marino are ahead of Musil. I thought he may be close to getting some NHL minutes.

  9. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    LT I’m not sure what it is, but seeing Reinhart behind slepyshev at the start of the year made me unreasonably angry lol

    Similar feelings right now about JJ, although I might just be overreacting again.

    DAMN LISTS!!

    Well, Khaira has had a heckuva year, lol. I think Reinhart may be going through a process whereby he is realizing there are in fact things to work on. Sometimes a second opinion really helps. I do not know what it might be, beyond being more aggressive (that has been mentioned) but he is a talented player and a determined one. I am glad we can talk about him without people getting so angry. Takes away enjoyment imo.

  10. frjohnk says:

    1.D Ziyat Paigin
    2.G Laurent Brossoit
    3.C Jujhar Khaira
    4.D Griffin Reinhart
    5.W Anton Slepyshev
    6.D Ethan Bear
    7.D Caleb Jones
    8.D John Marino
    9.C Bogdan Yakimov
    10.D William Lagesson

    Paigen was a phenomenal pick. Pronman said in a redraft that Paigen goes 2nd round. But does he come over? If so, when? And will his game translate? We don’t know, but he is a huge arrow right now.

    LB, Khaira, Reinhart and Slepy are the only prospects of note that MIGHT make a dent with the big club next year.

    Cupboard is pretty much empty with any potential top 6 forwards.

    I like the Bear, Jones cluster. Just might be a Dman for us in there in 3-5 years.

  11. Centre of attention says:

    http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/973134?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    “The Edmonton Oilers remain a huge question mark, but it’s no fault of Hall’s. Among Canadian left wingers this season, Hall ranks second in points to Jamie Benn, who’s already been named to the team.

    The 24-year-old helped Canada to a World Championship in 2015, and should be called upon to represent his country once again as a premiere player at his position.”

    The Score absolutely nails it on the Taylor Hall issue. I also completely agree with the list of players they want to add.

  12. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I am glad we can talk about him without people getting so angry

    Don’t worry, within time, posters who are on a cabbage diet, will set their stink on Reinhart. Of course, that will happen after Hall, EBERLE, and Yak are gone. Reinhart will have to be patient.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    I’m surprised Simpson, Lagesson and Marino are ahead of Musil. I thought he may be close to getting some NHL minutes.

    My list is not related to being close to NHL-ready. If a player has offensive ability, or is a good skater and defender, they would be ranked ahead.

  14. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention:
    http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/973134?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    “The Edmonton Oilers remain a huge question mark, but it’s no fault of Hall’s. Among Canadian left wingers this season, Hall ranks second in points to Jamie Benn, who’s already been named to the team.

    The 24-year-old helped Canada to a World Championship in 2015, and should be called upon to represent his country once again as a premiere player at his position.”

    The Score absolutely nails it on the Taylor Hall issue. I also completely agree with the list of players they want to add.

    A strong finish by Hall would certainly help him.

    But if one of the bubble players has a terrific playoff, that may unseat Hall as Hall wont be in the playoffs.

    But if Hall has a fantastic World Championships, that will also help him.

    Still lots of hockey left

    Oh yeah, and he has to stay healthy.

  15. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Lowetide,

    I admittedly haven’t seen enough of Simpson or Musil play, but they seem awfully close to each other as player types. Simpson may have a higher overall hockey IQ and skating capability, but gives up size and positional intelligence to Musil. Saw them off on offense and age – same, same. The differences on any of these attributes seem very slight. Just curious that Simpson got the push up the list versus Musil. I might rank one right after the other but for me its Musil then Simpson because of size (with this management bias). Having said this, it’s just opinion (with nothing in terms of data to support it) and I’m only touching on the apparent gap of these two as prospects in particular.

  16. Aron_S says:

    Player I’m hoping to see make a push (though I don’t know that it happens with the call-up limitation and Chia picking up Pardy): Musil.

    Player I’m most excited to see make a push based on small sample sizes of saw him good: Oesterle. Surprised he wasn’t on the initial Top 20 Prospects, but I also knew so little about him before his most recent call-up.

    Lastly, I just wanted to say, I was listening to the show today and thought the point of “If the Oilers don’t trade Marincin, maybe Davidson is lost to waivers/traded” was an excellent one.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    Lowetide,

    I admittedly haven’t seen enough of Simpson or Musil play, but they seem awfully close to each other as player types. Simpson may have a higher overall hockey IQ and skating capability, but gives up size and positional intelligence to Musil. Saw them off on offense and age – same, same. The differences on any of these attributes seem very slight. Just curious that Simpson got the push up the list versus Musil. I might rank one right after the other but for me its Musil then Simpson because of size (with this management bias). Having said this, it’s just opinion (with nothing in terms of data to support it) and I’m only touching on the apparent gap of these two as prospects in particular.

    Musil is in his third season in the AHL, and despite being an intelligent player—I saw him in the WHL and he is really good at positioning—the foot speed is really an issue.

    SImpson is in his second year in the AHL, and has a range of skills (I like that a lot. You can make the grade in several ways). He lacks one dominant strength, but progresses a little each season.

    I have Musil at No. 21, so the difference is not great. I like where Simpson is in year two more than Musil in year three, and the range of skills.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/12/25/oilers-prospects-no-21-30-the-secondary-moderns/

  18. GCW_69 says:

    Glass:
    What can be done to prevent players like Slepyshev & Yakimov from bolting? Do you walk away from older players like Miller & Hamilton to give others more ice time? I’d hate to see Slepyshev go, more so than Yakimov.

    Not burying players with KHL experience or who have more than one year of AHL experience on the third and fourth line in Bakersfield is a good place to start.

  19. Dicky94 says:

    Can Lagesson come over next to play or no?

  20. mujidog says:

    I’d like to know more about how Griffin Reinhart’s doing in the AHL. Too much noise around the trade, Barzal, Oil Kings, #4 overall, etc. Ignoring all of that, how has he been?

    In the NHL, he has looked… inconsistent. Which is expected. I read a few months ago that he wasn’t standing out at all in the AHL. Has that changed?

  21. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69: Not burying players with KHL experience or who have more than one year of AHL experience on the third and fourth line in Bakersfield is a good place to start.

    Truth.

    Also,

    in the last thread, that was Letestu ‘s GFON/60 WOWY, not Yak.

    He’s worse than Belanger.

  22. Bank Shot says:

    Well at least the probable top five pick the Oilers select this summer will boost up the lack of top six in the prospect ranks.

  23. wheatnoil says:

    Nurse has done better as the year has gone on and the quality of competition has dropped, but even then his numbers remain generally poor. It’s tough to compare he and Reinhart on account of the gap in minutes played, injury and competition at times, but it’s worth pointing out that Reinhart has generally been equal or better than Nurse in most stats. By that measure, you could make the argument for Reinhart being the NHL regular and Nurse being the occasional call-up from the minors. If that were the case, I think the vitriol at the Reinhart trade might be at least somewhat softer.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot:
    Well at least the probable top five pick the Oilers select this summer will boost up the lack of top six in the prospect ranks.

    Yes. But they need to hit on five picks, like they appear to have done in 2015. Because, and history bears this out, probably one of Bear, Jones, Paigin and Marino turns out and we are not able to identify him yet. Need a strong second through fourth round, with extra picks.

  25. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil:
    Nurse has done better as the year has gone on and the quality of competition has dropped, but even then his numbers remain generally poor. It’s tough to compare he and Reinhart on account of the gap in minutes played, injury and competition at times, but it’s worth pointing out that Reinhart has generally been equal or better than Nurse in most stats. By that measure, you could make the argument for Reinhart being the NHL regular and Nurse being the occasional call-up from the minors. If that were the case, I think the vitriol at the Reinhart trade might be at least somewhat softer.

    Absolutely on point, and a theme of my RE series at the end of the year. There were points in the year where Reinhart up, Nurse down was obvious. Oilers did not do it. I think that needs to be examined.

  26. cc says:

    The Russian was a helluva pick. It’s tough to find a comp for him.

    I really like the Jones, Bear & Marino picks as well. Bear & Jones were solid selections. Both are relatively late birthday’s both June and good points totals.
    Ethan Bear 0.97 (PPG)
    Caleb Jones 0.78 (PPG)

    Look at how players drafted earlier are doing this past year.
    Thomas Chabot 0.90 (18th Pick)
    Travis Dermott 0.89 (34th)
    Vince Dunn 0.83 (56th)
    Jeremy Roy 0.76 (31st)
    Brandon Carlo 0.53 (37th)
    Jakub Zboril 0.46 (13th)
    Matt Spencer 0.42 (44th) – Guy I had hoped we picked.

    They are tracking on par or ahead of some pretty good defenseman drafted in 2007 – 2009
    David Savard 1.20
    Tyson Barrie 1.14
    Michael Stone 0.88
    TJ Brodie 0.79
    PK Subban 0.79
    Jared Spurgeon 0.76
    Travis Hamonic 0.70
    Marco Scandella 0.63

    Not a bad list of players. Now take it with a grain of salt, I am only looking at success stories. If you look at a couple of Oiler’s picks;
    Jeremie Blain 0.93
    Martin Gernat 0.92
    Martin Marincin 0.84

    They put up similar numbers but didn’t develop.

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Griffin is an effective player in the Minors. 8 points in 25 games isn’t a black hole offensively. The guy can move the puck. He can shoot too. His problem IMO isn’t his skating either, which is basically average.

    His problem is first recognizing threats around the net, and then effectively prioritizing them. Also, using his size to box out players effectively around the net and in the slot. Basic issues that many Young D have while skinning their teeth in the National league.

    That being said, Nurse is not perfect at boxing out in the slot either. In fact a lot of his troubles are exactly the thing Rienhart struggles at. Recognizing & prioritizing threats close around the net. (Although I would say Nurse has pure aggression working in his favor.)

    I think we should all forget about Griffin for 3 years like we did Davidson, have him called up before the playoffs then become Fernando reincarnated as a D-man on the way to Stanley #6

    Summary; the kid will be fine. He will do some meandering though and may end up in a new town along the way.

    My 2 cents on the Griffin issue.

    PS: Sometimes its hard for fans to separate the transaction from the player. You can gripe about the trade but its miles too early to gripe about the player. Just my opinion.

  28. godot10 says:

    Dicky94:
    Can Lagesson come over next to play or no?

    He has come over. Draft+1 in USHL. Draft+2 US College, UMassAmherst

  29. godot10 says:

    Nurse is in the NHL over Reinhart because he is assertive and not hesitant in making decisions, even if they are bad ones. With his skillset, it is better for him to learn better decision making at the NHL level, because he can get away with poor decisions at the AHL level.

    Reinhart was somewhat hesitant in his decision-making early in the season. Which is why he is in the AHL. One has to make decisive decisions and be able to shake off the consequences of bad ones to learn at the NHL level. So Reinhart is better off at the AHL level for now.

  30. Centre of attention says:

    godot10,

    In my opinion both players should be in the AHL. Todd has said the same but his hands are tied by a flawed organization.

  31. Магия 10 says:

    Centre of attention: I think we should all forget about Griffin for 3 years like we did Davidson, have him called up before the playoffs then become Fernando reincarnated as a D-man on the way to Stanley #6

    This year and next year. He’s in Davidson’s situation for 17-18.

  32. Магия 10 says:

    Centre of attention:
    godot10,

    In my opinion both players should be in the AHL. Todd has said the same but his hands are tied by a flawed organization.

    I think Nurse goes down after Klef cones back.

  33. Centre of attention says:

    Магия 10: I think Nurse goes down after Klef cones back.

    This would make sense but then again….its the Oilers.

  34. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy: Truth.

    Also,

    in the last thread, that was Letestu ‘s GFON/60 WOWY, not Yak.

    He’s worse than Belanger.

    Yeah, saw that. Black hole of suck for two more years.

  35. Stelio Kontos says:

    If you are saying we should treat reinhart like davidson, that is a huge disappointment. Davidson was a long shot to play. He shouldn’t even be here, and yet he is. He was unlikely to make it since junior. It is a miracle he is where he is. You don’t get miracles like that more than once every ten years. Way before the trade we IDed Reinhart as a bad pickup. It is unfair to expect people to change their opinions because he is wearing one of those ugly orange sweaters (Unpopular opinion-hate the wha colours).

  36. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Магия 10: This year and next year. He’s in Davidson’s situation for 17-18.

    It’s a bad comp on one level (draft pedigree) but a pretty darn good one on another (style of player). Reinhart is 29 months younger than Davidson, and 2 years behind him in pro experience. We may need to wait a little while, not the end of the world.

  37. Ray says:

    Davidson had his 20 year old year back in junior and didn’t he also clear waivers to start last year? Griff’s development can’t be modeled after Davidson’s because of this

  38. OilClog says:

    Hall not on Team Canada is a disservice to Canadian hockey fans.

    Chia needs to have someone at NASA examine his head for not including Hopkins on his initial roster.

    Good grief.

  39. Centre of attention says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Ray,

    I wasn’t comparing Rienhart to Davidson. I was just saying we should forget about Rienhart for awhile, kind of like we did with Davidson. It will make the trade easier to digest once he fully develops.

    The Oilers made the move thinking Rienhart could jump right into the NHL-ready portion of the McDavid-Draisaitl cluster. It was a mistake. One mistake out of a long list, which includes not bringing in cover for Griffin himself as well as other prospects like Nurse who are drowning some nights.

  40. Genjutsu says:

    Completely off topic, a habs fan buddy sent me this link of Chris Nilan losing it on TSN radio.

    Adds some context to the worst move in Chia’s history and why Boston got rid of a franchise player:

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/habs-lunch-are-the-media-and-fans-too-hard-on-marc-bergevin-1.44618

    Sorry to be kind of gossipy but I think this is a credible source and does make sense a trade that made zero sense.

  41. Dicky94 says:

    godot10,

    That’s right. Thanks

  42. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    If you are saying we should treat reinhart like davidson, that is a huge disappointment. Davidson was a long shot to play. He shouldn’t even be here, and yet he is. He was unlikely to make it since junior. It is a miracle he is where he is. You don’t get miracles like that more than once every ten years. Way before the trade we IDed Reinhart as a bad pickup. It is unfair to expect people to change their opinions because he is wearing one of those ugly orange sweaters (Unpopular opinion-hate the wha colours).

    That isn’t the point I was making (don’t know who you were talking to here). If we were projecting GR has a top flight two-way defender who would impact the game offensively in a big way, we would already have our answer. People get confused because he was drafted so high.

    No sir. You hope GR is Calvin De Haan. His being chosen No. 4 overall, and then the trade, has people thinking a lot of his value will come from offense. People look at his record, are critical, and then someone comes along and says he could post 40 points. I do not see that, that is not the player we are looking at here. Klefbom is that player.

    Nurse can bring you some offense, GR some too. They aren’t 40 points guys.

  43. flyfish1168 says:

    My two cents on GR. What irritates me about PC going after GR is we already have 2 LHD that are trending well. Oscar and Darnell. Plus a plethora of other LHD. So the question I ask is did PC see GR as a better option than all of the others LHD or was MacT and Bob Green in his ear that GR is better. My point is we could have used those assets for a RHD during last years draft.

  44. MrEd says:

    If RNH(22), McDavid(19), and Leon(20) are on the roster to start next season then we’re doing the unicorn thing. I’m fully on board.

  45. Mustard Tiger says:

    What would it cost to pry Wayne Simmonds out of Philly? Probably zero chance they trade him, since he’s only a 4 mil cap hit for 3 more years, but man, would he ever look good in Edmonton.

  46. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    My two cents on GR. What irritates me about PC going after GR is we already have 2 LHD that are trending well. Oscar and Darnell. Plus a plethora of other LHD. So the question I ask is did PC see GR as a better option than all of the others LHD or was MacT and Bob Green in his ear that GR is better. My point is we could have used those assets for a RHD during last years draft.

    I think, and this is a guess, they didn’t see the value in taking another forward (probably center) and did not like any of the defensemen available at that number. I am not defending the move, but PC needs to get defenders who are older than McDavid (forwards too) out in front of him. I understand the plan, the price was too high.

  47. MrEd says:

    Sek, Klef, and Davidson are the basis for the D.
    Talbot for sure. LB.

  48. MrEd says:

    Marooon, Kassian and Hendi fit the bill.

  49. MrEd says:

    Ebs is playing himself onto this team despite a great pass last night.

  50. MrEd says:

    Hoping Hall finds it again for the stretch.

  51. MrEd says:

    Otherwise? So much for continuity. 🙂

  52. Woodguy says:

    Genjutsu:
    Completely off topic, a habs fan buddy sent me this link of Chris Nilan losing it on TSN radio.

    Adds some context to the worst move in Chia’s history and why Boston got rid of a franchise player:

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/habs-lunch-are-the-media-and-fans-too-hard-on-marc-bergevin-1.44618

    Sorry to be kind of gossipy but I think this is a credible source and does make sense a trade that made zero sense.

    Link takes me to a British Open post and I can’t find it on their site.

    Help?

  53. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: I think, and this is a guess, they didn’t see the value in taking another forward (probably center) and did not like any of the defensemen available at that number. I am not defending the move, but PC needs to get defenders who are older than McDavid (forwards too) out in front of him. I understand the plan, the price was too high.

    I totally agree. I was wondering why didn’t they look for a RHD at that point as a possible trade instead of GR

  54. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Nurse has done better as the year has gone on and the quality of competition has dropped, but even then his numbers remain generally poor. It’s tough to compare he and Reinhart on account of the gap in minutes played, injury and competition at times, but it’s worth pointing out that Reinhart has generally been equal or better than Nurse in most stats. By that measure, you could make the argument for Reinhart being the NHL regular and Nurse being the occasional call-up from the minors. If that were the case, I think the vitriol at the Reinhart trade might be at least somewhat softer.

    I think Reinhart suffers from the same thing Fayne does to a lesser extent.

    Slow feet mean when you get beat in close, or when your check changes direction and loses you it looks really bad.

    Really bad.

    Reinhart’s last game in the NHL was not good at all in this respect. Good gaps on his checks, but then they’d shake him in 2 strides and it looked terrible.

    Nurse on the other hand stays with his checks better and gets to where he needs to be (when he goes to the right spot, which is a big part of what he needs to work on), but once he gets to the right spot he often gets puck watching, or chases and leaves men open who shouldn’t be.

    Neither move the puck fast enough when they get it, but Nurse is faster than Griff at this.

    Griff never played higher than 3rds, mostly with Gryba (44.5%) and a bit with Davidson (57.5%)

    Nurse on the other hand, played 1st w/ Sekera (43.8%), 2nds with Jultz (47.2%), 2nd w/ Davidson (51.9%) and then 3rds with Gryba (48.5%), Fayne (46.2%) and Clendenning (36.2%…ugh)

    The coach (too high up the line up) and GM (where’s his warm blanket?) own a lot of this.

    At least the did the right thing with Griff

    Hope they do the right thing with Nurse.

  55. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Nurse is in the NHL over Reinhart because he is assertive and not hesitant in making decisions, even if they are bad ones.With his skillset, it is better for him to learn better decision making at the NHL level, because he can get away with poor decisions at the AHL level.

    Reinhart was somewhat hesitant in his decision-making early in the season.Which is why he is in the AHL.One has to make decisive decisions and be able to shake off the consequences of bad ones to learn at the NHL level.So Reinhart is better off at the AHL level for now.

    This is a good take and on point imo.

  56. Cahoon says:

    Woodguy,

    I went to the link and same thing.

    This is the closest thing to the topic that I could find:

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/habs-lunch-are-the-media-and-fans-too-hard-on-marc-bergevin-1.446180

  57. knighttown says:

    As Frustrating as the Hall omission is there are some real puzzlers. For instance, 5 of the top 8 defensemen scorers in the NHL were not named.

    Brent Burns- 54 points to lead all Canadian defensemen and he’d be 4th on the entire team in scoring. I see him as a Hart and Norris candidate.

    John Klingberg- his 53 points is 4th among all Swedes

    When you omit guys like this you’re essentially saying how you play during the season doesn’t matter.

    Teams take the guys that played before. Period.

  58. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy,

    Cahoon has got it, just above.

  59. Cahoon says:

    Yeah, listening to it, this is definitely what was supposed to be linked to. Chris Nilan is losing it!

  60. VvV says:

    Fail, forgot all about Jordan Oesterle!

  61. Really? says:

    Lowetide,

    For some reason it seems that fans only consider a D man to be any good if he is scoring 40+ points per year. Well newsflash everyone. There are many top notch D men in the NHL who don’t score at anywhere near that rate. It is not a sin to be a good defenseman and not be a prolific scorer.

  62. who says:

    knighttown:
    As Frustrating as the Hall omission is there are some real puzzlers. For instance, 5 of the top 8 defensemen scorers in the NHL were not named.

    Brent Burns- 54 points to lead all Canadian defensemen and he’d be 4th on the entire team in scoring. I see him as a Hart and Norris candidate.

    John Klingberg- his 53 points is 4th among all Swedes

    When you omit guys like this you’re essentially saying how you play during the season doesn’t matter.

    Teams take the guys that played before. Period.

    I think teams take dmen who can defend first. Lots of these guys put up points as well. Burns and Klingberg are not elite defenders. They play more like rovers. Yes they put up points and are fun to watch but they give up lots of chances as well. Team Canada won the last Olympics by basically shutting down any offense against and I am guessing they will use the same blueprint this time around. Personally I would rather watch the river hockey but that is not what wins.

  63. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy,

    “I think Reinhart suffers from the same thing Fayne does to a lesser extent.
    Slow feet mean when you get beat in close, or when your check changes direction and loses you it looks really bad.
    Really bad.“

    The room for slow is getting as big as the room for staged fighter. No reason GR shouldn`t know how to skate (rich NHL dad), it could be decision making. Bottom line is get better and fast.

    knighttown:
    As Frustrating as the Hall omission is there are some real puzzlers. For instance, 5 of the top 8 defensemen scorers in the NHL were not named.

    Brent Burns- 54 points to lead all Canadian defensemen and he’d be 4th on the entire team in scoring. I see him as a Hart and Norris candidate.

    John Klingberg- his 53 points is 4th among all Swedes

    When you omit guys like this you’re essentially saying how you play during the season doesn’t matter.

    Teams take the guys that played before. Period.

    So all the best hockey managers in the world come to the same conclusion.

    Goals are important, but not everything. Few players are able to outscore irresponsible play at the highest level, unsurprisingly.

    My evidence being one way high offense players are regularly moved and strong offense two way players aren`t.

    It`s like the old addage saving a penny is easier than earning an extra penny.

  64. Fog of Warts says:

    Woodguy: This is a good take and on point imo.

    I’m presently reading Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock.

    An entire chapter on combining leadership with data humility is built around the Prussian Wehrmacht circa 1870. Define the required outcome, but leave the methods up to the boots on the ground, recursively all the way down the chain of command.

    All decisions decisive, with 100% follow through by everyone involved.

    Exception: there comes a time when “overwhelming” evidence exists that the current decision is the wrong decision. Properly calibrating this recognition of overwhelming contrary evidence was regarded as one of the great challenges of leadership by the Prussian academy.

    The book is worth reading for this chapter alone, but if you don’t have the book handy, much of the background is found at Moltke’s theory of war.

  65. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy: This is a good take and on point imo.

    Generally agree with this …AND Nurse skates at the NHL level and for the first swing through the league that really helped. Second and third time through the league are harder for a rookie.

  66. G Money says:

    We saw Griffin up for three games a few weeks ago. The last two (CBJ, NYI) he did not look very good at all.

    Forgotten is that in the game before that, he and Gryba absolutely tore the cover off the ball. They were an incredibly good pairing, and visually at least, Reinhart was the prime motivator on that pairing.

    The two of them in over 14 minutes of ice time pitched a ludicrous (season low for all D pairs) DFA/60 of 0.8. Not a typo. ZERO POINT EIGHT. The Mendoza line is about 40.

    Lest you think that is an error, or that the DFA metric must just have gone awry, then have a gander at the ‘shots against’ rink map that game (again, this is in more than 14 minutes of EVTOI):

    http://i.imgur.com/dtxicaz.png

    As I recall, he also jumped up and created a terrific and extremely surprising scoring chance a couple of times.

    IF or when GR can bring that game every game instead of every three or four games, man, we are gonna have something.

    Much too soon to write him off.

  67. Mustard Tiger says:

    This is really cool.
    Map of virtually every pro/jr hockey team in North America.

    https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zIMarFx5T1Ko.kVITPktO4iYY

  68. Woodguy says:

    Fog of Warts: Superforecasting

    Been meaning to pick that up.

    I disagree more with Garder than I agree with him, but I like his books and that topic is interesting.

  69. Quinlan says:

    That Nilan segment was something else.

    If he’s telling the truth about what happened in Boston, that paints Chiarelli’s biggest mistake in a far different light. Certainly makes me feel more assured of his decision making processes.

    I’m left scratching my head though – if Chiarelli wasn’t fired for trading Seguin, what other failure was the cause? His drafting wasn’t bad, nor his pro acquisitions. He got them a Cup and he’d set them up for a decade of success after, provided he could work around some contract difficulties.

  70. pocession charge says:

    Cahoon:
    Yeah, listening to it, this is definitely what was supposed to be linked to. Chris Nilan is losing it!

    Nilan has the perfect nickname.

  71. Lowetide says:

    Quinlan:
    That Nilan segment was something else.

    If he’s telling the truth about what happened in Boston, that paints Chiarelli’s biggest mistake in a far different light. Certainly makes me feel more assured of his decision making processes.

    I’m left scratching my head though – if Chiarelli wasn’t fired for trading Seguin, what other failure was the cause? His drafting wasn’t bad, nor his pro acquisitions. He got them a Cup and he’d set them up for a decade of success after, provided he could work around some contract difficulties.

    He overpaid for depth players and held on to the SC team for too long. Plus they got old (Seidenberg, Chara).

  72. AsiaOil says:

    Thanks G – yes I remember that game and it was a doozy of an effort. GR is going to be inconsistent until he matures and there is no where to hide on the Oilers present roster and no one to help him hide. Same with Nurse who everyone agrees needs to go down. I think mgmt has almost no options until Klef comes back and has kept Nurse up for no other reason than he has more support amongst the fans. GR has a flock of critics ready to flail him after every mistake and destroy the kid. So they are protecting GR from the fans as much as the opposition players. I don’t like Nurse getting crushed every night though as he needs to play like the baddest mofo on the ice to be really effective. They will both be fine in the long run – but we do have a lot of LHD.

    G Money:
    We saw Griffin up for three games a few weeks ago.The last two (CBJ, NYI) he did not look very good at all.

    Forgotten is that in the game before that, he and Gryba absolutely tore the cover off the ball.They were an incredibly good pairing, and visually at least, Reinhart was the prime motivator on that pairing.

    The two of them in over 14 minutes of ice time pitched a ludicrous (season low for all D pairs) DFA/60 of 0.8.Not a typo.ZERO POINT EIGHT.The Mendoza line is about 40.

    Lest you think that is an error, or that the DFA metric must just have gone awry, then have a gander at the ‘shots against’ rink map that game (again, this is in more than 14 minutes of EVTOI):

    http://i.imgur.com/dtxicaz.png

    As I recall, he also jumped up and created a terrific and extremely surprising scoring chance a couple of times.

    IF or when GR can bring that game every game instead of every three or four games, man, we are gonna have something.

    Much too soon to write him off.

  73. Caramel Batman says:

    Everyone preaching patience with Reinhart, I have a question. How often do first round picks not develop into impact players until they are 23 or 24? Does it ever happen? I ask because Reinhart is 22.

    We heard the de Haan comparison (established at 22), and in the past we heard the Coburn comparison (established at 22). Are there any others?

    There is such a thing as first round talent exploding on the scene. And there is such a thing as late bloomers like Davidson. But is there such a thing as late blooming first round talents? Patience here costs nothing, but is there any real, tangible, ground for hope? Any example of a comparable player in terms of pedigree who has followed the same career path and turned into a good player on the other side?

    And remember, when the Reinhart trade was made, the majority of people here were proclaiming he had top pairing potential and was a virtual guarantee to play top four. This was always unlikely, and hardly credible now. He has to improve a lot just to become as valuable as Eric Gryba.

  74. Dominoiler says:

    Quinlan:
    That Nilan segment was something else.

    Yeah, what a segment.. drink every time knuckles holds back an F bomb.. 🙂

    Seriously tho, Montreal fans need to learn how bad of an idea it is to play galchenyuk 1st line centre.. these young pups are going to struggle having to play 1st line minutes.. (Nuge for years, Leon now)

  75. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Everyone preaching patience with Reinhart, I have a question.How often do first round picks not develop into impact players until they are 23 or 24?Does it ever happen?I ask because Reinhart is 22.

    I keep reading about GR being touted around here as the second coming, when in fact I believe we were very realistic:

    It’s rare for NHL teams to trade top five overall picks before those players establish their level of ability at the big league level. There’s significant risk in dealing away these players, but it’s also true that the drafting organization has already made the call on the player’s long-term potential. Consider the last 10 seasons: Griffin Reinhart (2012); Nino Niederreiter (2010); Brayden Schenn (2009) were the only men dealt before seeing significant NHL time. Two from the Islanders and one part of a blockbuster deal via Los Angeles. It’s a rare thing, but there’s also a hint of ‘bloom off the rose’ in all three cases. These are the facts as we know them as Griffin Reinhart enters his Oilers career.

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/11/19/oilers-no-5-prospect-winter-2015-griffin-reinhart/

  76. Caramel Batman says:

    Ian Cole didn’t play consistently until he was 25. So that’s hopeful.
    Mark Fistric didn’t play until he was 23. There is that.

    So what I’m saying is that I don’t think Reinhart is Colton Teubert or anything like that. And if you look at past first round picks there are a lot worse players than Reinhart. But it’s pretty hard to find a precedent for a player that was drafted where he was drafted (and hence already developed) but then struggled as much as he has struggled, who nonetheless turned into good NHL players.

    First round talent peaks early. It’s foolhardy to project or otherwise assume continuous development.

    On that note, McDavid isn’t going to keep getting better. He’s likely as fast now as he is ever going to be. Scoring peaks especially early. Sidney Crosby’s highest scoring season was his second in the league. Now scoring has gone down since then, but still. This is very, very, common, especially with first round picks (both Hall and Eberle had their best scoring years when they were 21).

    Players get smarter as they get older, but they don’t get faster.

  77. Caramel Batman says:

    Lowetide,

    Not touted by you, touted by those who hang around here.

    Go back to the thread on the day of the trade. There was some complaining at first, and then the mob came out and chased away the people that didn’t like the trade, or in my case, hated the trade with the fire of a thousand suns.

  78. Quinlan says:

    Lowetide,

    He overpaid for two depth players, as have Lombardi and Bowman. How does that equate to a firing offense?

    The Bruins are still largely his team, and as of today, they’re in a playoff spot.

    You’d think he’d have been given time to make some moves and get out from under those contracts. This is the manager who built the team into a Cup contender – he’d proven he could build. I’m surprised they wouldn’t have let him figure out the contract issues.

    Chara’s was decent value for the majority of the contract, Seidenberg’s was not great, but fairly typical 2nd pairing money, and Kelly’s was an overpay of at least 500K, which is up at the end of the year.

    Still a head scratcher to me. Glad the Oil have him.

  79. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Sounds hot!

  80. Quinlan says:

    Dominoiler,

    Especially when they have Plekanec in that spot.

    That said, Galchenyuk doesn’t seem to be struggling all that badly this year, in fact, he’s doing really well. Probably a 2nd line forward, who can fill in @ 1st line should injury come. Don’t think he’s a center in the long-term though.

    Funny how Montreal is also turning against their best players. Canadian markets, eh? 😉

  81. Professor Q says:

    Water Fire,

    Surely Hall and Eberle’s play internationally would finally gain them trust and acknowledgement, non?

  82. Steve4 says:

    Chiarelli was moved out to make room for Neely and Sweeny. It was an internal power struggle, and that is what makes our debt of a 2nd rounder so preposterous!

    I don’t think our prospect pool is an issue. We’ve graduated so many players this year, that the vacuum is to be expected. I’m sure Pete has a couple guys in mind. They’ll be fine. If they end up making that top pick, they’ll be golden. (though, I’d rather trade it for Vatanen or the like).

  83. Caramel Batman says:

    I won’t be surprised if Hall doesn’t make Team Canada. He’s the most underappreciated player of the past ten years and I’m not sure it is going to change.

    They are going to add four forwards, probably from this group.

    Giroux
    Hall
    Perry
    Duchene
    Marchand
    O’Reilly

    Perry is a lock, that means two the other five won’t make the team. Marchand is gritty and has a Stanley Cup. I bet he makes it. Duchene made it last time. And that’s without considering the typical Team Canada whacky selection.

  84. wheatnoil says:

    Quinlan:
    Lowetide,

    He overpaid for two depth players, as have Lombardi and Bowman. How does that equate to a firing offense?

    The Bruins are still largely his team, and as of today, they’re in a playoff spot.

    You’d think he’d have been given time to make some moves and get out from under those contracts. This is the manager who built the team into a Cup contender – he’d proven he could build. I’m surprised they wouldn’t have let him figure out the contract issues.

    Chara’s was decent value for the majority of the contract, Seidenberg’s was not great, but fairly typical 2nd pairing money, and Kelly’s was an overpay of at least 500K, which is up at the end of the year.

    Still a head scratcher to me. Glad the Oil have him.

    The rumour at the time was that Neely (President) was often at loggerheads with Chiarelli and wanted to solidify his power. Boston had a disappointing finish and the Boychuk trade looked poor, the cap management wasn’t great, so there was grounds for firing and Neely took the opportunity. This may explain why Chiarelli insisted on both President and GM role when he came… he needed to have complete roster control.

    Now, whether the behind-the-scenes politics is true or not, I don’t know for sure, but I remember that being the discussion around the time of the hiring.

  85. Steve4 says:

    wheatnoil: The rumour at the time was that Neely (President) was often at loggerheads with Chiarelli and wanted to solidify his power. Boston had a disappointing finish and the Boychuk trade looked poor, the cap management wasn’t great, so there was grounds for firing and Neely took the opportunity. This may explain why Chiarelli insisted on both President and GM role when he came… he needed to have complete roster control.

    Now, whether the behind-the-scenes politics is true or not, I don’t know for sure, but I remember that being the discussion around the time of the hiring.

    That was the discussion throughout the season prior to his firing.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Quinlan:
    Lowetide,

    He overpaid for two depth players, as have Lombardi and Bowman. How does that equate to a firing offense?

    The Bruins are still largely his team, and as of today, they’re in a playoff spot.

    You’d think he’d have been given time to make some moves and get out from under those contracts. This is the manager who built the team into a Cup contender – he’d proven he could build. I’m surprised they wouldn’t have let him figure out the contract issues.

    Chara’s was decent value for the majority of the contract, Seidenberg’s was not great, but fairly typical 2nd pairing money, and Kelly’s was an overpay of at least 500K, which is up at the end of the year.

    Still a head scratcher to me. Glad the Oil have him.

    Agree. I think the Bruins made a mistake in firing him and was pleased Edmonton acted quickly.

  87. G Money says:

    Someone here a while back suggested the idea of using or at least investigating individual Corsi over the course of a game (I shall dub it … Coursi … of Cors I will) as a measure of fatigue and/or fitness.

    I thought this was an outstanding idea, and I’m working on an analysis based on it. (Remains to be seen if it will yield anything much of interest, but I totally dig the concept)

    Unfortunately, bad bad me, I have forgotten who suggested the idea.

    I hope you are reading this, and if so, please pipe up when you get a chance – I would very much like to make sure you get the appropriate hat tip.

  88. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely on point, and a theme of my RE series at the end of the year. There were points in the year where Reinhart up, Nurse down was obvious. Oilers did not do it. I think that needs to be examined.

    I think cap consequences are the largest part of the answer for this. The difference in dollars is significant.

    I’m not sure how much fault to put on management for this as long term I don’t really see this effecting either players development greatly.

    Not really sure how much of a difference it would have made in the standings either.

    The concern of overage effecting next years cap was IMO the deciding factor.

  89. AsiaOil says:

    Karl Alzner – full junior career and 2 years mostly in AHL before full time in the NHL in his 3rd year as a pro. Always been the best Reinhart comp in terms of style, talent and high pick in a very weak draft.

    Caramel Batman: Everyone preaching patience with Reinhart, I have a question. How often do first round picks not develop into impact players until they are 23 or 24? Does it ever happen? I ask because Reinhart is 22.

  90. stevezie says:

    AsiaOil:
    Karl Alzner – full junior career and 2 years mostly in AHL before full time in the NHL in his 3rd year as a pro. Always been the best Reinhart comp in terms of style, talent and high pick in a very weak draft.

    I’m being very pedantic here, but while the ’07 draft was thought to be a weak one, it actually turned out to be unusually strong. Probably a lesson about the fallibility of scouts and the danger of a consensus in there.

    I’m not calling the scouts dumb, the things they didn’t know couldn’t be known. 17 year-old are lottery tickets.

  91. Woodguy says:

    stevezie,

    I’m being very pedantic here, but while the ’07 draft was thought to be a weak one, it actually turned out to be unusually strong

    Unusually strong?

    In what way?

    In terms of upper end talent, its not great.

    In terms of total GP so far, its not great either.

  92. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    I probably overstated as I was just looking at the first round. I was using the likelihood of getting a good NHL player. The 2007 first round had the fewest busts of 04-09. My terms are somewhat subjective as games played isn’t perfect for different years and some players like Da Haan have come on late. Basically, is the player playing full-time and not for development purposes?

    In the very least what was projected to being a poor draft turned out to be a fine draft.

  93. PhrankLee says:

    Very cool site and blog about special teams. In the “Aabout the project” segment he gives an indirect shout out to our little piece of heaven provided by the famous LT.

    http://www.nhlspecialteams.com/

    The newest article about how effective the drop pass zone entry is on PP.

    Good site.

  94. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    I’m not going to go on an anti-Hall rant but keep in mind in these tournaments it’s not always the leading scorers who get invited to play for their countries. If it was then guys like Subban, Burns, Giroux and Hall would be shoe-ins. Babcock and the Team Canada brass typically look for guys who play a complete game and are responsible defensively. That is why guys like Bergeron are on the team they bring an array of skills and versatility that someone like Hall for example does not. I still think he will ultimately end up on the team but would not be surprised if he didnt for the reasons I stated. Just my 2 cents.

  95. russ99 says:

    GCW_69: Not burying players with KHL experience or who have more than one year of AHL experience on the third and fourth line in Bakersfield is a good place to start.

    True, but another big problem is lack of skill forwards to play with.

    All 4 lines on Bakersfield could be considered 3rd or 4th lines. Hopefully that changes with this draft, but they could also change the mix of the AHL veterans, away from the Fords and the Hamiltons, to players who can help other skill prospects develop, like a Maltais or Giroux.

  96. Caramel Batman says:

    AsiaOil:
    Karl Alzner – full junior career and 2 years mostly in AHL before full time in the NHL in his 3rd year as a pro. Always been the best Reinhart comp in terms of style, talent and high pick in a very weak draft.

    Perhaps I am misreading his hockeyreference page but Alzner was drafted in 2007 then

    07-08 in Junior Draft + 1
    08-09 AHL–NHL Draft + 2
    09-10 AHL–NHL Draft + 3
    10-11 NHL for good Draft + 4

    Isn’t Reinhart in his Draft +4 year right now? If so he’s behind the Alzner curve.

  97. GCW_69 says:

    russ99: True, but another big problem is lack of skill forwards to play with.

    All 4 lines on Bakersfield could be considered 3rd or 4th lines. Hopefully that changes with this draft, but they could also change the mix of the AHL veterans, away from the Fords and the Hamiltons, to players who can help other skill prospects develop, like a Maltais or Giroux.

    From a development point of view, I kinda think you want your AHL forwards lines to look like this:

    Line 1: Two offensive oriented prospects, one veteran
    Line 2: Two offensive oriented prospects, or one offensive and one two way prospect, one veteran
    Line 3: Two two way oriented prospects, one veteran
    Line 4: Three AHL only veteran types

    Oilers do it in reverse.

  98. threeputtdouble says:

    who: I think teams take dmen who can defend first. Lots of these guys put up points as well. Burns and Klingberg are not elite defenders. They play more like rovers. Yes they put up points and are fun to watch but they give up lots of chances as well. Team Canada won the last Olympics by basically shutting down any offense against and I am guessing they will use the same blueprint this time around. Personally I would rather watch the river hockey but that is not what wins.

    100% correct. The greatest defensive hockey performance in history was Team Canada in the last Olympics. It would have been a total fluke for any other team to win. They almost didn’t get scored on in the entire tournament. Anybody suggesting we should be picking more offensive d-men now was not paying attention.

  99. The Trade Guy says:

    threeputtdouble: 100% correct.The greatest defensive hockey performance in history was Team Canada in the last Olympics.It would have been a total fluke for any other team to win.They almost didn’t get scored on in the entire tournament.Anybody suggesting we should be picking more offensive d-men now was not paying attention.

    I guess but its a show case of the game.

    “Wow the best players in the world played a really tight checking game and my team won so that was good I guess. I can’t wait to watch the NHL and watch lesser players play like this.”

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