ONCE IN A VERY BLUE MOON

Everyone moves the clock ahead one hour Sunday morning. Connor McDavid is already there. McDavid seems to enjoy playing the Minnesota Wild. Music! His goal last night was the usual majesty, fast as lightning and an intelligent decision (I think he changed the shooting angle to miss the outstretched stick of the defender) and that’s all she wrote. Hockey’s Houdini is pure joy.

EUREKA! YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 4-2-0
  • Oilers after 70 in 2014-15: 19-39-12, 50 points (-74 GD)
  • Oilers after 70 in 2015-16: 27-36-7, 61 points (-36 GD)

Oilers are one point away from equaling last season’s point totals and there are a dozen games to play. I have to tell you that last night was a pretty encouraging evening based on just how little the team had going on defensively.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Oesterle—Pardy were a solid pairing, moving the puck well (forwards were offering nicer passing lanes too) and defending effectively. I am not a big shot-blocking proponent, but Pardy was stuffing a lot to my eye and had four blocks. Oesterle has impressed me in these games, far more than a year ago when there was a lot more chaos. I like him and his fast boots.
  • Sekera—Fayne had another solid night, although Sekera took a puck over glass and Fayne got walked a time or two. Another assist for Sekera, he is finding a way to hit the scoreboard more in the second half of the year. I like Fayne, hope he is back next year.
  • Reinhart—Clendening had a time, and a lot of it was their own fault. Late in the game, Reinhart rammed it around the boards to a waiting Wildman, something I have seen so often in that barn it makes me physically ill. A more veteran GR will take a look. Clendening picked up an assist on the first goal, had three hits and blocked a shot. I thought he was better of the two men on this pairing by quite a bit.
  • Cam Talbot continues his fabulous run, at the end of the season we will count up the reason for the improved Goddams—and Talbot will be high in the rockies. His .921 even-strength save percentage for the year ranks No. 28 among goalies with 25 or more appearances, and his .920 SP overall has him No. 14 in the NHL.
  • The RE series I do every summer projected the Oilers for 230 goals, they are on pace for 198 (matching 2014-15). I am going to blame injuries and the power play when we get back to the RE in April. The goaltending from RE projected to allow 224 goals, Edmonton is on pace to allow 231 goals—just seven more than predicted here. My projections are (currently) off by 39 goals, but the goalies (Talbot) have delivered on their end of the bargain.

INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Two: Jordan Eberle, Lauri Korpikoski
  • One: Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Maroon, Andrej Sekera, Adam Pardy, Mark Letestu

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Leon Draisaitl had some real jump last night, thought he could have cashed a couple of times. Got owned in the dot (18 percent) and finished -1, but I thought he was far better than the paper suggests.
  • Mark Letestu was 33 percent in the FO circle, but I like him and his line more than any game since the All-Star break. Picked up an even-strength assist, worked hard.
  • Connor McDavid didn’t score on his SH breakaway and then did score on a far less promising chance. Honestly, he is such a wonderful player, I don’t think any of us can put it into words. I have seen the play he scored on played out hundreds of times, and it goes in so seldom the mind’s eye disregards it as a non-event. He scored. Lordy.
  • Matt Hendricks got into very little of this game and the Oilers missed him badly.

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Maroon—Eberle were part of the Leon train, fabulous possession numbers and four high-danger scoring chances. It was effective, nine shots on goal total, but no points. I would like to see them again on Saturday, but the Nuge is coming!
  • Korpikoski—Yakupov had a good night to my eye, they faced some tough opposition and narrowly won the possession battle. Korpikoski is a frustrating player, but it is difficult to be critical on a night when the Corsi battle was won, he scored a goal and filled in on faceoffs.
  • Pakarinen—Cracknell ended up playing all over because of the injury to Hendricks. I noticed them mostly on the PK, and late when the team was protecting the lead. Cracknell is a player I would never have appreciated in a thousand years if he hadn’t come to the Oilers. He is safe in a good way, and carried the puck out of danger a couple of times with the game in the balance. Cracknell, and Korpikoski, played center last night for a time.
  • Hall—Kassian didn’t get as much done as one would hope, but Kassian sent McDavid away and Hall had some nice moments but nothing rhymed. The line (with McDavid) had two scoring chances, but the kid cashed.

AMATEUR FREE AGENTS

The Oilers are currently at 49 contracts, meaning they have one to burn (if they choose) on a college free agent who is willing to sign and go right to the pro’s. The advantage of offering a player the chance to burn a year of their entry-level deal is obvious and Peter Chiarelli may well take advantage for the right name. We are beginning to see CHL and college free agents sign:

  • Dryden Hunt has signed with the Florida Panthers. He ripped it up as an overager for the Moose Jaw Warriors, I had him on my overagers list for the 2015 draft.
  • Andrew Poturalski signed with the Carolina Hurricanes. He is an undersized offensive forward.
  • Nick Lappin signed with the New Jersey Devils out of Brown University. One of the first players ever drafted to the NHL was Curt Bennett, also out of Brown.
  • Daniel Renouf signed with the Detroit Red Wings. He is a mobile defender with some size.

Awhile back, I gave you my list of players Edmonton might be looking at based on the Chiarelli regime and skill sets (here):

  • LW Dryden Hunt, Moose Jaw Warriors.
  • C Reid Gardiner, Prince Albert Raiders. This is a pretty good player, surprised he wasn’t drafted last summer. He is 5.11, 195.
  • F Drake Caggiula, University of North Dakota. Another terrific scorer, he has good speed and a range of skills. 5.10, 180.
  • D Troy Stecher, University of North Dakota. Righthanded blue with all kinds of offense, and he is an excellent skater. 5.10, 190.
  • R Nick Betz, Erie Otters. This player comes via Brock Otten and his excellent OHL Prospects site, and Betz is a big power winger with average speed. What makes him interesting is size (6.04, 220) and offense that appears to be attached to net-front presence. Source

I hope they at least consider signing Josh Winquist, but that can wait until season’s end, and that final spot (No. 50) could go soon to a college man. Chris Dilks from SB Nation has a terrific article up on some of the best college kids available.

musil williams 1

David Musil and his skating issues have him at a crossroads with the Edmonton Oilers. The big club used their last recall on the faster Jordan Oesterle this week, and of course Griffin Reinhart (and others) block him moving forward. Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan have had to make some callup choices in the last while, and if we look at the blue line RFAs for this summer, it is fairly easy to see the pecking order:

  • D Adam Clendening: Waiver pickup, has stayed with the team since (11, 0-3-3).
  • D Jordan Oesterle: Speed is his big edge, and he looked solid last night (5, 0-1-1).
  • D David Musil: Hasn’t received a call since the new regime took over, he is 4, 0-2-2 for his NHL career.

I expect we see Musil exit via trade over the summer, he may join former Edmonton Oil Kings who the Oilers drafted (although not necessarily from the OK) in what is becoming a large pile of prospects who didn’t make the grade. Among that group are Travis Ewanyk and Martin Gernat, who have been sent away in packages over the years. Musil and two OKs acquired via trade (Griffin Reinhart, Laurent Brossoit) represented the ‘best hope’ for this Oil-King-to-Oiler template, but with the (likely) decision on Musil coming this summer, it remains an expensive and so far unproductive enterprise. Not quite at the level of the Coke Machine era, but then again the investments have been very dear on Oil Kings.

kelly

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show today. Begins 10 this morning, TSN 1260:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. How insanely good is Connor McDavid, and how many times are Leafs fans playing that lottery game?
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. The current OKs are an impressive crew, they will not be caught without a fight. We will talk to Corey about the playoffs and this unusual season.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Introducing a new feature today, Matt and I will discuss various topics, and I will present the rational view. Matt will follow with the crazy and hilarity will ensue. That is the plan, anyway.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Paul and I will discuss the rest of this season and the wisdom of trading the draft pick for help on defense.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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125 Responses to "ONCE IN A VERY BLUE MOON"

  1. Norman Greenbaum says:

    I think it was Spurgeon’s soul that McDavid ate.

    See how Spurgeon’s ability at the break-out pass didn’t help him?

    He shouldn’t feel too bad, though.

    Lost count of the number of times McDavid has made the league’s best d-men look like five year olds trying backward crossovers for the first time.

    Glad to see PK is A-OK.

  2. truth9 says:

    From a points perspective, this is looking like it could be the best year for the Oil since ’08-’09. The 85 points that year would require sweeping the rest of the season, which seems… unlikely.

    If they go 6-3-4 from here (a tall order, I know), they’d end with 77 points, which is what they were theoretically on pace for in the lockout year, their third best total since the SCF.

    Now watch as they go 3-6-4 to screw everything up.

  3. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Hello? *taps mike* Is this thing on? I was in bed with the wife the other night, not my wife sir, your wife, and…..

  4. who says:

    After watching the game last night it is obvious to me that Oesterle is a hell of a lot closer to NHL ready than Reinhart. Much quicker feet and much quicker decisions. I know his size could be an issue but there are other smaller dmen who are starring in the league. I could live with Reinharts foot speed but he has to maker quicker decisions and then commit to them. There are too many plays in the d zone where he takes an extra second to decide and then hesitates before acting. If you could bottle Nurses aggression and put it in Reinhart you may have something. Say what you want about Nurse but when he makes a decision he follows through with it, HARD. Hopefully, in Reinharts case this is just caused by inexperience, lack of confidence, etc. but I believe this is his third year as a pro so I am starting to wonder.
    Also starting to wonder if Hall has reached his ceiling, His play started to go off the rails when Drai had his slump or injury and it really hasn’t recovered. Makes me wonder who was actually driving that line. He would have to show me something in the last 12 games or I would dangle him for that #1 dman. Hope I am wrong but they are going to have to give up someone and he has the most value right now.

  5. Adam Wu says:

    The game thread seemed curiously inactive last night. Most game threads easily get over 400 comments, even when the team stank….

    I’m wondering if the suspension might actually be helpful for Nurse’s development. He gets 3 games to watch from the press box and reset.

    Would it not be nice if Osterle pulls a Davidson next year?

  6. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Anyone else pleasantly surprised by the play of Adam Pardy? Seems like a pretty serviceable 6-7 to me. I will add here that I am fully aware that I am susceptible to the mirage of basic competence seeming fantastic because of the horrifying nature of the Oilers’ D corps(e). Somebody, perhaps our friendly neighbourhood wood purveyor, compared Pardy to Sutton, and I think that’s apt. I’d be open to him returning.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    A few thoughts. Man is that Maroon trade wonderful. For 1.5 million you can’t ask for much more. Kassian seems to have fallen of a cliff after a decent first few games. I don’t think I sign him give the price of his qualifying offer. If you can trade Reinhart for something decent I would do it. Lauri “Ryan Jones” Corpsikoski probably sticks around for another season given our lack of production from the bottom of the roster. I would sign Pardy as a depth defensemen next year. This season shows yet again that you need at least 10 defensemen for a year. You can’t waste a roster spot on knuckledraggers. Rotate Pardy in on the second game of back to backs and when injuries occur and they will, he doesnt seem like a liability.

    David Musil pick highlights how far behind the times the previous regime was. Most teams have moved away from that player type years ago and we wasted a high draft pick on him. From day 1 he looked like at best a 3rd pairing defenseman and why would you waste a high second round pick and years of development on one when you can get similar players off the scrap pile.

  8. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Coffeys_Messy_eh:
    Anyone else pleasantly surprised by the play of Adam Pardy?Seems like a pretty serviceable 6-7 to me.I will add here that I am fully aware that I am susceptible to the mirage of basic competence seeming fantastic because of the horrifying nature of the Oilers’ D corps(e).Somebody, perhaps our friendly neighbourhood wood purveyor, compared Pardy to Sutton, and I think that’s apt.I’d be open to him returning.

    Problem is that we have 6-7 6-7 d-men.

    4 and higher SVP!

  9. Woodguy says:

    Norman Greenbaum:
    I think it was Spurgeon’s soul that McDavid ate.

    See how Spurgeon’s ability at the break-out pass didn’t help him?

    He shouldn’t feel too bad, though.

    Lost count of the number of times McDavid has made the league’s best d-men look like five year olds trying backward crossovers for the first time.

    Glad to see PK is A-OK.

    I was impressed that Spurgeon kept pace with him once he had turned.

    Usually when the Dman turns McDavid blows past them like a house on the side of the road and then swoops in front of the net.

    Spurgeon kept up, used his stick well and kept him to the outside.

    99.8% of the NHL players get off a weak shot if any shot in that spot.

    The fact that McDavid scored isn’t that black of a mark on Spurgeon.

  10. Ducey says:

    Coffeys_Messy_eh:
    Anyone else pleasantly surprised by the play of Adam Pardy?Seems like a pretty serviceable 6-7 to me.I will add here that I am fully aware that I am susceptible to the mirage of basic competence seeming fantastic because of the horrifying nature of the Oilers’ D corps(e).Somebody, perhaps our friendly neighbourhood wood purveyor, compared Pardy to Sutton, and I think that’s apt.I’d be open to him returning.

    Yeah.

    I would like to see Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson on the left, with Fayne and Gryba on the right with the new guy (Demers, I would guess). Pardy can be the million dollar man in the press box.

    Nurse, Reinhart and Oesterle can be the call ups.

    They can try and get Lord Denning thru waivers too.

    Depth.

  11. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Connor Mcdavid is going to change the game, the Mark Fayne of the league (slow D who play well in trap game) are going to retire to the AHL. The Minnesotas of the league will try to left wing lock and trap the redline to the defending blue line, he will laugh and skate it right through the trap. Good bye left wing lock.

    The difference between Hall, Crosby, and Mcdavid is how refs view them. Hall and Crosby try to fly through the neutral zone but they constantly bitch to the refs, if you have someone at work complaining about other employees everyday do you ever give them the benefit of the doubt in dispute? Me neither, and I believe that is how NHL refs view Hall and Crosby. Mcdavid is quiet and reserved, I have watched him give death stares to the ref but never complain. Refs are people too, if you yell at them and embarrass them on TV you’re done, if you make jokes and eat the odd bad call to keep your relationship you’re going to get the calls in the long run.

  12. leadfarmer says:

    Wonder what Bettman is going to do to create more “parity in the league” There is only 2 teams fighting for one playoff spot in the west and realistically 3 teams fighting for 2 playoff spots in the east. Otherwise the playoff races seem pretty much set unless a team almost sweeps the rest of the 13-17 games they have left.

  13. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Norman Greenbaum,

    Point taken. To my eye, though, he looks like a proper 6-7. The other 5-6 6-7s seem less so. I guess I’m saying that in the complete (overdue) overhaul of the D, I think he should remain as a 6-7.

  14. knighttown says:

    Great write up today LT. Right on point on a number of issues especially Reinhart, who really struggled.

    What I find interesting is that Reinhart was given the Davidson treatment and Nurse was given the Gagner treatment and neither have really progressed.

    Griffin to me actually looks worse than he did in October whereas Nurse had the great start (on adrenalin) slid badly and now has stabilized a bit.

    I do think the months of June-October are the most important for a prospects development so I’m still hopeful. That’s why the timing of Davidson’s injury looks decent on paper (games don’t matter and he’ll be ready for next year) but in my opinion is worse than the timing of the McDavid injury.

    You need that summer to keep you developmental curve moving.

  15. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy: I was impressed that Spurgeon kept pace with him once he had turned.

    Usually when the Dman turns McDavid blows past them like a house on the side of the road and then swoops in front of the net.

    Spurgeon kept up, used his stick well and kept him to the outside.

    99.8% of the NHL players get off a weak shot if any shot in that spot.

    The fact that McDavid scored isn’t that black of a mark on Spurgeon.

    No, but as much credit I want to give McDavid, I give equal amounts of blame to Kuemper.

    NHL goalies need to make that save. It wasn’t a ridiculous shot, and there is no way 97 got all of it. Kuemper flubbed it despite Spurgeon’s ability to stay with his guy.

  16. Rocknrolla says:

    I try to keep reminding myself this year we have really improved so much. Even though we are still near the bottom.

    1. Bob Nicholson in charge- OBC is not making calls
    2. GM with a Stanley cup
    3. Top NHL coach 6th in wins amongst existing
    4. Bonafide .920 starting goalie
    5. Connor F***ing McDavid!

    Not a bad year of good changes. Next year we will improve again and hopefully make the playoffs.

    Hey LT, here’s an interesting idea for a post…can you go through all of the oil kings trades and picks and see who we could have (should have) picked if we weren’t blinded by the local team? Would be sad but interesting!

  17. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Woodguy: The fact that McDavid scored isn’t that black of a mark on Spurgeon.

    Yes, and I said that.

  18. Woodguy says:

    BOTTOM 6 NHL TEAMS AND TIES VIA GAMES (PTS%)

    30TH PLACE ALWAYS = 0, TIES BROKEN WITH ROW

    30 TOR 0
    29 EDM +2
    28 WPG +3
    27 BUF +5
    26 CGY +5
    25 ARI +7

    WPG is circling the drain a bit and still might catch the Oilers for 29th.

    Mind you, if RNH is back and Dreamy shortly after it would be very Oilers to go on a run now.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Norman Greenbaum: Yes, and I said that.

    Yessir, but the first remark was disparaging to one of my fav’s so I came to his defence

  20. Woodguy says:

    Pajamah: No, but as much credit I want to give McDavid, I give equal amounts of blame to Kuemper.

    NHL goalies need to make that save. It wasn’t a ridiculous shot, and there is no way 97 got all of it. Kuemper flubbed it despite Spurgeon’s ability to stay with his guy.

    Yeah, Kuemper needs to have that.

  21. Adam Wu says:

    Rocknrolla:
    I try to keep reminding myself this year we have really improved so much. Even though we are still near the bottom.

    1. Bob Nicholson in charge- OBC is not making calls
    2. GM with a Stanley cup
    3. Top NHL coach 6th in wins amongst existing
    4. Bonafide .920 starting goalie
    5. Connor F***ing McDavid!

    Not a bad year of good changes.Next year we will improve again and hopefully make the playoffs.

    Hey LT, here’s an interesting idea for a post…can you go through all of the oil kings trades and picks and see who we could have (should have) picked if we weren’t blinded by the local team? Would be sad but interesting!

    +38 and counting on goal diff, +11 and counting on points.

    The first step in turning north sees multi-goal looses become 1 goal losses. This does not show up much in the standings. But the next step, when 1 goal losses become one goal wins and Bettman points, can see what appears to a big jump in the standings for only a small amount of improvement.

    Health alone might have been enough for the team to have made that next step this year.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Top 10 NHL players via 5v5 pts/60 (400+ min)

    MCDAVID, CONNOR 2.94 *
    KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 2.76
    JAGR, JAROMIR 2.66
    KANE, PATRICK 2.62
    CROSBY, SIDNEY 2.53
    CAMMALLERI, MIKE 2.45
    DRAISAITL, LEON 2.45 *
    THORNTON, JOE 2.41
    HALL, TAYLOR 2.37 *
    GAUDREAU, JOHNNY 2.37

    That’s insane given they are one of the worst teams in the league.

    Hurry Chia, fix the rest of the goddam team!!

  23. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Woodguy: Yessir, but the first remark was disparaging to one of my fav’s so I came to his defence

    Nee worries, big yan!

    I get like that when someone disses Smithson.

  24. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Woodguy:
    Top 10 NHL players via 5v5 pts/60 (400+ min)

    MCDAVID, CONNOR2.94 *
    KUZNETSOV, EVGENY2.76
    JAGR, JAROMIR2.66
    KANE, PATRICK2.62
    CROSBY, SIDNEY2.53
    CAMMALLERI, MIKE2.45
    DRAISAITL, LEON2.45 *
    THORNTON, JOE2.41
    HALL, TAYLOR2.37 *
    GAUDREAU, JOHNNY2.37

    That’s insane given they are one of the worst teams in the league.

    Hurry Chia, fix the rest of the goddam team!!

    Hurry Tmac, fix the power play!

  25. Ducey says:

    Poor Yak has gone cold again. No points in 4 games. No shots last night.

    He now has 2 points in his last 21, 6 in his last 37.

    Meanwhile, alleged boat anchors Korpi (6 pts in his last 21, 13 in his 38) and Letestu (5 pts in his last 21, 10 in his last 37) continue to outscore him.

    This, coupled with Maroon and Kassian’s emergence means its hard to see a spot for him going forward. Even if they trade Eberle, they likely replace him with some thunder.

    Matheson says today that MTL was not interested in Yak at the deadline. They don’t like his lack of hockey sense. I would think that would be a common perception among GM’s.

    I don’t think he is worth anything above a low draft pick. The only option may be try and keep his rights while letting him play in the KHL. Maybe he will find some mojo there.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Kassian started out very well, but has started to fade.

    These are small “with” samples, but these are telling on how he’s played lately.

    Hall w/o Kassian 52.4% (996min)
    Hall w/ Kassian 47.9% (91min)

    McDavid w/o Kassian 53.0% (424min)
    McDavid w/ Kassian 38.1% (25min)

    One good game can bring that McDavid number way up, but so far its not good.

    I’d like to see some Yak up there.

    McDavid w/o Yak 51.9% (251min)
    McDavid w/ Yak 52.5% (195min)

    Yak doesn’t hold McDavid back at all in terms of CF%.

    This is a big blind spot for McLellan.

    I get why he’s doing it (dzone and zone exit work is not good for Yak), but let the dogs run dammit!

    I see this coming w/ RNH back:

    4-93-44
    19-97-14
    28-29-10

    A healthy Poo would help that equation a lot.

    A healthy Poo is always a good thing.

    Poo

    hehe

  27. Woodguy says:

    Norman Greenbaum: Nee worries, big yan!

    I get like that when someone disses Smithson.

    Excellent work.

  28. Woodguy says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Hurry Tmac, fix the power play!

    A-freaking-men

  29. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Yak will be dealt to this summer and stay in the NHL.

    Book it!

  30. Norman Greenbaum says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Hurry Tmac, fix the power play!

    Power play? We don’ need no steenking power play.

  31. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:

    I’d like to see some Yak up there.

    McDavid w/o Yak 51.9% (251min)
    McDavid w/ Yak 52.5% (195min)

    Yak doesn’t hold McDavid back at all in terms of CF%.

    This is a big blind spot for McLellan.

    Any way to break out the Yak – McDavid WOWY into before and after McDavid’s injury?

    It worked before the injury when Yak was hot. The attempts to make it work recently have not really worked (at least not in terms of getting Yak on the scoresheet).

  32. DRFNsuperstar says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Hurry Tmac, fix the power play!

    Actually I take that back:

    Oilers: 33 ppg, 16.67%
    Panthers: 38 ppg, 16.45%
    Lightning: 38 ppg, 16.74%
    Rangers: 33 ppg, 18.23%

  33. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    Yak will be dealt to this summer and stay in the NHL.

    Book it!

    You think he will be in the league in 5 years?

  34. alice13 says:

    What’s insane about WG’s list is #3:

    Jagr

    Now that’s something.

  35. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Woodguy:

    4-93-44
    19-93-14
    28-29-10

    That 93 guys is going to be tired. 😀

  36. linkfromhyrule says:

    Ducey: Any way to break out the Yak – McDavid WOWY into before and after McDavid’s injury?

    It worked before the injury when Yak was hot.The attempts to make it work recently have not really worked (at least not in terms of getting Yak on the scoresheet).

    I could be wrong, but hasn’t Yak only played his off wing on McD’s line since the injuries? McLellan sure does make some strange deployment decisions sometimes

  37. sliderule says:

    Korpikoski also spent the most time for the forwards on the PK.

    A PK that went 4-0 with no mention.

    A PK that is tied for 14 th in the NHL thanks to unappreciated players like him and Letustu .

  38. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    Yak will be dealt to this summer and stay in the NHL.

    Book it!

    It would be interesting to obtain an insider’s perspective of Yakupov’s diminishing trade value over time.
    Eg:
    At the draft in 2012: a good young defenseman like Subban (who only received a low-dollar bridge contract from the Habs at the time)
    After his rookie season: a legit 3-4 D like Brayden Coburn + a prospect
    After year 1 of Eakins: a mid-to low first round pick + prospect
    After year 2 of Eakins: a compromised prospect, a la Grigorenko
    Now: maybe a 3rd rounder

    I get what they were saying back when they could stand to expose themselves to some semblance of risk in order to balance the team. Still hasn’t happened and these assets, which we’ve paid a dear cost to acquire, are diminished in value.

  39. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Great opening on your show today. You were on fire.

  40. Ribs says:

    I have seen the play he scored on played out hundreds of times, and it goes in so seldom the mind’s eye disregards it as a non-event. He scored. Lordy.

    It’s truly amazing how McDavid can maintain such control of the puck with that long stick of his. Some of the stuff he does just seems impossible.

  41. Snowman says:

    The only reason I’ve watched lately is because of Mcdavid. I burnt out a little early this year but Mcdavid keeps pulling me back in.

    I’m baffled at how skilled he is. I’m baffled at how fast he is.

    I cannot believe that he is only still a boy. In 8 years, he is going to be a monster. Size, speed, skill and experience. The way he changed the angle and extended on his goal last night is freaky stuff for a 19 year old. Sure Kuemper should have saved it but most players can’t even be in the position to get that shot and of the few that would’ve been able to create the chance, even fewer get off a decent shot on net. When he fills out a bit he’s going to set the league on fire.

    Connor McDavid. WOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!!!

  42. oldskool says:

    I think the barn door has already closed on Winquist. He is a 22 year old 2nd year pt/gm pro with a nasty streak. After 2 years under the Oil’s management (BOTB at the AHL level) I suspect he will be putting any offer from the Oilers at the bottom of the pile. Another mishandled asset thrown away.

  43. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    Top 10 NHL players via 5v5 pts/60 (400+ min)

    MCDAVID, CONNOR2.94 *
    KUZNETSOV, EVGENY2.76
    JAGR, JAROMIR2.66
    KANE, PATRICK2.62
    CROSBY, SIDNEY2.53
    CAMMALLERI, MIKE2.45
    DRAISAITL, LEON2.45 *
    THORNTON, JOE2.41
    HALL, TAYLOR2.37 *
    GAUDREAU, JOHNNY2.37

    That’s insane given they are one of the worst teams in the league.

    Hurry Chia, fix the rest of the goddam team!!

    Tamb SM:
    Eberle
    one of 15best G and p producers in game.
    Davidson
    Top 25 in legue at preventing High scoring shots.
    Hall
    #2 tough comp production winger in the game. (wheller)
    RNH
    top 10 Tough comp Center
    Klefbom
    #1 Even D in Game

    MacT/SM:
    Mcdavid
    Best even production center in game.
    Draistl
    Bet pvp production center in game.
    Talbot
    top 10 Goalie

    Hurry Chia continue to get guys like Gryba!
    I mean
    er
    Pardy!

    Hall and Draisatl were the best PvP off Pr in the game.

    Draisatl PvP center production verus the next best avg.
    suggest the 7 Best Relative even performance by a center since 05-06.

    Behind Crosby’s 2 best eaons; Malkins 2 best seasons; Toews best Season; Backstromm’s

  44. admiralmark says:

    Did I miss an update on Davidson? Miss that guy.

  45. frjohnk says:

    John Chambers: It would be interesting to obtain an insider’s perspective of Yakupov’s diminishing trade value over time.
    Eg:
    At the draft in 2012: a good young defenseman like Subban (who only received a low-dollar bridge contract from the Habs at the time)
    After his rookie season: a legit 3-4 D like Brayden Coburn + a prospect
    After year 1 of Eakins: a mid-to low first round pick + prospect
    After year 2 of Eakins: a compromised prospect, a la Grigorenko
    Now: maybe a 3rd rounder

    Not having the 3 centers play at the same time during most of the year helped sewer the season not only for the team, but also Yak. Yak needs a good center.

    He gets paid $2.5M, which is 3rd line material, which is about what he put up in stats or close to.

    So if the best the Oilers can get is a second/third rounder, he has more value to the Oilers. He is not being overpaid. So I wouldn’t trade him for that.

    I do feel he needs to be on a power play in where the play goes through right handed shots like Philly’s PP with Giroux or Nashville with Johansen. Oilers PP is run by left handers like McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl, Hall who are positioned on the same side as Yak. Yaks strength on the PP is his onetimer, but the Oilers can never set him up because of this. Left and Right shooting Dmen matter just like having skilled players with proper shooting hands on a PP. Yak does not fit with our players.

    But yeah, it is known that Chia was shopping him and Yaks agent said they would be OK with a move.
    Don’t see him as an Oiler next fall.
    That will be too bad.

  46. Johnny Larue says:

    Ducey: Any way to break out the Yak – McDavid WOWY into before and after McDavid’s injury?

    It worked before the injury when Yak was hot.The attempts to make it work recently have not really worked (at least not in terms of getting Yak on the scores

    Yes but Yak was playing left wing not right wing as he was earlier in the year. Put Yak on the right side of McDavid and see how that works out

  47. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy:
    BOTTOM 6 NHL TEAMS AND TIES VIA GAMES (PTS%)

    30TH PLACE ALWAYS = 0, TIES BROKEN WITH ROW

    30 TOR 0
    29 EDM +2
    28 WPG +3
    27 BUF +6
    26 CGY +6
    25 ARI +7

    WPG is circling the drain a bit and still might catch the Oilers for 29th.

    Mind you, if RNH is back and Dreamy shortly after it would be very Oilers to go on a run now.

    I thought I knew how you worked these number. Shouldn’t Buffalo and Calgary be +5?

    Only numbers that I don’t match when I allow a pt for each game remaining:

    Toronto 71 0
    Edmonton 73 + 2
    Winnipeg 74 +3
    Calgary 76 +5
    Buffalo 76 +5
    Arizona 78 + 7
    Columbus 79 +8
    Vancouver 80 +9

  48. Магия 10 says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: Woodguy:
    4-93-44
    19-93-14
    28-29-10
    That 93 guys is going to be tired.

    Not as tired as this guy on the famous hockey writer’s capitals line:

    8-19-8

  49. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Any way to break out the Yak – McDavid WOWY into before and after McDavid’s injury?

    It worked before the injury when Yak was hot.The attempts to make it work recently have not really worked (at least not in terms of getting Yak on the scoresheet).

    I could do it manually later, can’t do it off of stats.hockeyanalysis

  50. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    BOTTOM 6 NHL TEAMS AND TIES VIA GAMES (PTS%)

    30TH PLACE ALWAYS = 0, TIES BROKEN WITH ROW

    30 TOR 0
    29 EDM +2
    28 WPG +3
    27 BUF +6
    26 CGY +6
    25 ARI +7

    WPG is circling the drain a bit and still might catch the Oilers for 29th.

    Mind you, if RNH is back and Dreamy shortly after it would be very Oilers to go on a run now.

    With the three lotteries for the top 3 picks now, there is no significant advantage gained by losing over winning the rest of the way. The lottery odds are relatively flat. The Oilers got McDavid from the three hole. The last place team has only a 20% chance of getting Matthews.

    I hope the Oilers win every game. Passing Calgary and Arizona would be a nice accomplishment.

  51. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: You think he will be in the league in 5 years?

    I think so.

    He produces with a decent center and goal scoring always has value.

  52. Woodguy says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: That 93 guys is going to be tired.

    Dammit!

    fixed.

  53. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Your love for 3rd pairing D’s over inflated numbers due to shitty comp will never die

  54. Woodguy says:

    Магия 10: I thought I knew how you worked these number. Shouldn’t Buffalo and Calgary be +5?

    Only numbers that I don’t match when I allow a pt for each game remaining:

    Toronto 710
    Edmonton 73 + 2
    Winnipeg 74 +3
    Calgary 76 +5
    Buffalo 76+5
    Arizona 78 + 7
    Columbus 79 +8
    Vancouver 80 +9

    Yes, my mistake.

    They are both “6 games under .500” so “6” was in my head

    Fixed.

  55. Woodguy says:

    godot10: With the three lotteries for the top 3 picks now, there is no significant advantage gained by losing over winning the rest of the way.The lottery odds are relatively flat. The Oilers got McDavid from the three hole.The last place team has only a 20% chance of getting Matthews.

    I hope the Oilers win every game.Passing Calgary and Arizona would be a nice accomplishment.

    I don’t disagree with the sentiment, but every % counts.

    I like to watch them win, but won’t lament losses the rest of the way.

  56. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: Yes, my mistake.

    They are both “games games under .500” so “6” was in my head

    Thanks.

    Jets, Sabres and Flames are the immediate targets. Then Coyotes, Jackets and Canucks.

  57. Caramel Batman says:

    Snowman:
    The only reason I’ve watched lately is because of Mcdavid. I burnt out a little early this year but Mcdavid keeps pulling me back in.

    I’m baffled at how skilled he is. I’m baffled at how fast he is.

    I cannot believe that he is only still a boy. In 8 years, he is going to be a monster. Size, speed, skill and experience. The way he changed the angle and extended on his goal last night is freaky stuff for a 19 year old. Sure Kuemper should have saved it but most players can’t even be in the position to get that shot and of the few that would’ve been able to create the chance, even fewer get off a decent shot on net. When he fills out a bit he’s going to set the league on fire.

    Connor McDavid. WOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!!!

    What makes you think that he is going to keep getting better? Most phenoms peak early, it is part of what makes them phenoms.

    There is a non-zero chance that next year will be McDavid’s best season of his career.

    [Edit] And it is a virtual certainty that 8 years he will be on the down slope.

  58. jonrmcleod says:

    godot10,

    I agree. A better record might also help in luring players to Edmonton this summer.

  59. PhrankLee says:

    Yak to Toronto for a couple of those juicy picks they have collected.

  60. Ducey says:

    Johnny Larue: Yes but Yak was playing left wing not right wing as he was earlier in the year. Put Yak on the right side of McDavid and see how that works out

    What difference does it make?

    Playing your off wing matters in you own zone as a winger for zone exits (he should have an easier time as a LW), but it should not make much difference in the offensive zone. Surely Yak can go wherever he needs to in the offensive zone.

  61. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: What makes you think that he is going to keep getting better?Most phenoms peak early, it is part of what makes them phenoms.

    There is a non-zero chance that next year will be McDavid’s best season of his career.

    [Edit] And it is a virtual certainty that 8 years he will be on the down slope.

    Hoo boy.

  62. Snowman says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Wayne Gretzky’s first 6 seasons.
    1.73, 2.05, 2.65, 2.45, 2.77, 2.60 – most productive was his 5th season.

    Lemieux First 6 seasons
    1.52, 1.93, 1.69, 2.18, 2.61, 2.23 – most productive was his 5th season

    Sydney Crosby first 6 seasons
    1.26, 1.52, 1.35, 1.33, 1.35, 1.61 – most productive was his 6th season

    Alex Ovechkin first 6 seasons
    1.31, 1.12, 1.36, 1.39, 1.51, 1.07 – most productive was his 5th season

    Not sure about your assertion about next season being Mcdavids best… other generational players seam to peak after 5 years…

    Edit: I should add Patrick Kane’s best season is at age 27 (so far) Jonathon Toews best seasons so far were his 5th and 6th… Jamie Benn’s best season so far was his 5th.. Malkins was his 4th… Kopitars was his 4th… Seguins was his 5th

    About that non zero chance….

  63. Adam Wu says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: That 93 guys is going to be tired.

    Meh. He’s been resting for weeks…

  64. Adam Wu says:

    Caramel Batman: What makes you think that he is going to keep getting better?Most phenoms peak early, it is part of what makes them phenoms.

    There is a non-zero chance that next year will be McDavid’s best season of his career.

    [Edit] And it is a virtual certainty that 8 years he will be on the down slope.

    If he’s significantly better next year than this year, peaks there, and then sustains a slightly lower than that level for the next 7 years, and starts on the down slope in 8 years, I think I can live with that….

  65. Caramel Batman says:

    Snowman:
    Caramel Batman,

    Wayne Gretzky’s first 6 seasons.
    1.73, 2.05, 2.65, 2.45, 2.77, 2.60 – most productive was his 5th season.

    Lemieux First 6 seasons
    1.52, 1.93, 1.69, 2.18, 2.61, 2.23 – most productive was his 5th season

    Sydney Crosby first 6 seasons
    1.26, 1.52, 1.35, 1.33, 1.35, 1.61 – most productive was his 6th season

    Alex Ovechkin first 6 seasons
    1.31, 1.12, 1.36, 1.39, 1.51, 1.07 – most productive was his 5th season

    Not sure about your assertion about next season being Mcdavids best… other generational players seam to peak after 5 years…

    Best seasons and age

    Crosby: 19
    Stamkos: 19-23 are indistinguishable
    Malkin: 22
    Lemieux: 23
    Grestzky 21-25 are indistinguishable

    So I guess my point holds. I said there is a non-zero chance next year is his best. And that is true.

    The larger point is that people always assume that young players get better in a straight line. They don’t. Some peak early and hold value, some peak and fall, some just keep getting worse. For those who are already amazing they don’t just keep getting more amazing.

    The lesson from this is that the team needs to win next year, which makes trading Nurse an absolute imperative.

  66. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman: What makes you think that he is going to keep getting better?Most phenoms peak early, it is part of what makes them phenoms.

    There is a non-zero chance that next year will be McDavid’s best season of his career.

    [Edit] And it is a virtual certainty that 8 years he will be on the down slope.

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    dsbhsdhbdshjndjhewqujdxbdb

  67. Snowman says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I have no idea how you looked at that data and declared that Sydney Crosby’s best season was his 19 year old season.

    I also have no idea how you posted that response which said that virtually of of the phenoms you listed peaked after 4 or 5 years and then continued to think there was a non zero chance that Mcdavid’s best year is next year.

    No other phenom had their best season in their second season. I guess it could happen which means its technically non zero but its pretty close to zero in my opinion.

  68. raventalon40 says:

    Snowman:
    Caramel Batman,

    Wayne Gretzky’s first 6 seasons.
    1.73, 2.05, 2.65, 2.45, 2.77, 2.60 – most productive was his 5th season.

    Lemieux First 6 seasons
    1.52, 1.93, 1.69, 2.18, 2.61, 2.23 – most productive was his 5th season

    Sydney Crosby first 6 seasons
    1.26, 1.52, 1.35, 1.33, 1.35, 1.61 – most productive was his 6th season

    Alex Ovechkin first 6 seasons
    1.31, 1.12, 1.36, 1.39, 1.51, 1.07 – most productive was his 5th season

    Not sure about your assertion about next season being Mcdavids best… other generational players seam to peak after 5 years…

    Edit: I should add Patrick Kane’s best season is at age 27 (so far) Jonathon Toews best seasons so far were his 5th and 6th… Jamie Benn’s best season so far was his 5th..Malkins was his 4th… Kopitars was his 4th… Seguins was his 5th

    About that non zero chance….

    Maybe he means years 2-3 are best since they are the ELC years

  69. kinger_OIL says:

    Caramel Batman,

    – Yes Batman. It’s kitchen sink next year. It’s not about restocking the farm, its not about : “what about the contracts in 3 years”. They have 5 big pieces next 12 months to remake this team:
    1) Ebs (or Hall)
    2) This year’s first
    3) The $5MM+ cash that comes off for Nikitin and Ferrence, and maybe creative buy-out
    4) Nurse + Yak + AHL, for a 3:1
    5) Next years first (assume they are middle of road come next trade deadline: they trade their first for another piece)

    – All of these 5 “pieces” can translate into Chia-players. Except for the Ebs/Hall: 2-5 improve the team with no subtractions. Massive improvements are possible if executed properly

    – You could get a “Seth Jones” for Drai as well: the comp is set. I’d rather have 2 great C in RNH and Conner and an elite D than 3 elite C’s….

  70. Caramel Batman says:

    Adam Wu: If he’s significantly better next year than this year, peaks there, and then sustains a slightly lower than that level for the next 7 years, and starts on the down slope in 8 years, I think I can live with that….

    Of course. He’s unbelievable. But people who are unbelievable at such a young age don’t just keep getting better.

    Mike Trout had one of the best 20 year old seasons in MLB history. He has since basically repeated it three years in a row and is the best player in baseball, but he’s not getting better in leaps and bounds.

    Meanwhile his teammate on the Angels C.J. Cron was playing rookie league ball when he was 21 and had to improve a huge amount in his twenties just to make the show.

    Bryce Harper just had one of the best hitting seasons of all time at the age of 22. Is he going to keep getting better like most players? The answer is no.

  71. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: Best seasons and age

    Crosby: 19
    Stamkos: 19-23 are indistinguishable
    Malkin: 22
    Lemieux: 23
    Grestzky 21-25 are indistinguishable

    So I guess my point holds.I said there is a non-zero chance next year is his best.And that is true.

    The larger point is that people always assume that young players get better in a straight line.They don’t.Some peak early and hold value, some peak and fall, some just keep getting worse.For those who are already amazing they don’t just keep getting more amazing.

    The lesson from this is that the team needs to win next year, which makes trading Nurse an absolute imperative.

    Is the NHL that Crosby played in when he was 19 in any way the same as the NHL that he plays in now?

    Do you just look at boxcars to determine the value of a player? Do you think he could be better at facoffs, defensively and in other ways over time?

    Maybe he plays tougher minutes as he gets older that knock down his boxcars but help his team to win more than he did before? Maybe you need to take into account team construction?

    “Best” isn’t boxcars.

  72. Snowman says:

    raventalon40,

    Maybe… There is a non zero chance that’s what he meant.

  73. Alpine says:

    Anyone know how the Avs are going relatively strong with junk possession numbers and junk chance ratios? They have average shooting percentages and average goalering so it’s not like their PDO trip two years ago.

    Does slightly above average special teams make that much a difference? MAYBE they really are just ‘the team that doesn’t quit’ and ‘outworks their opponents’ even if it’s resulting in Varlamov still having a huge workload.

  74. LP says:

    alice13:
    What’s insane about WG’s list is #3:

    Jagr

    Now that’s something.

    oh ya, Jagr is killing it… at the ripe age of 44.

    Imagine if he had stayed full time in the NHL.

    #Jagr_is_a_DemiGod

  75. Cahoon says:

    jonrmcleod:
    godot10,

    I agree. A better record might also help in luring players to Edmonton this summer.

    Like Lucic, or Stamkos. Or pull what the wild did when Parise and Suter were the two big fish lol :P.

  76. PhrankLee says:

    LP: oh ya,Jagr is killing it… at the ripe age of 44.

    Imagine if he had stayed full time in the NHL.

    #Jagr_is_a_DemiGod

    20(!!) 50 point seasons with a vacay in the KHL.. Unreal.

  77. Water Fire says:

    Caramel Batman: What makes you think that he is going to keep getting better?Most phenoms peak early, it is part of what makes them phenoms.

    There is a non-zero chance that next year will be McDavid’s best season of his career.

    [Edit] And it is a virtual certainty that 8 years he will be on the down slope.

    Are you conflating points totals with value of contribution? Is getting better only scoring?

    The two most dominant teams by Stanley Cups recently don’t have the highest scoring centres. Nor did the last most dominant team.

    Of course you have to score to win but there is far more going on than that.

  78. Adam Wu says:

    Caramel Batman: Of course.He’s unbelievable.But people who are unbelievable at such a young age don’t just keep getting better.

    Mike Trout had one of the best 20 year old seasons in MLB history.He has since basically repeated it three years in a row and is the best player in baseball, but he’s not getting better in leaps and bounds.

    Meanwhile his teammate on the Angels C.J. Cron was playing rookie league ball when he was 21 and had to improve a huge amount in his twenties just to make the show.

    Bryce Harper just had one of the best hitting seasons of all time at the age of 22.Is he going to keep getting better like most players?The answer is no.

    Both history and biology suggests to me that it is quite unlikely that McDavid’s best year will occur before he turns 20, barring something unexpected like injury.

    While it is *technically* true that there is a non-zero chance that his next season, which will be his 19-20y season, turns out to be the best of his career, the proximity of that chance to zero is close enough that I wouldn’t willingly put money on the proposition.

  79. Adam Wu says:

    There’s also a non-zero chance that an asteroid will hit the earth this summer, wiping out human civilization, making the best year in Conner McDavid’s NHL career this year….

  80. "Steve Smith" says:

    Adam Wu,

    Man, that would save me a lot of trouble.

  81. frjohnk says:

    Darren Dreger on TSN 1260 this morning,

    “In regards to the Edmonton Oilers and specifically Connor McDavid, there are growing concerns that there could be a non zero chance that Connor McDavid has his best year statistically next season. But with the non zero chance that he gets injured again, the non zero chance of McDavid having his best year becomes zero chance. But on the flip side, with the non zero chance that McDavid is injury prone every year and his non zero chance injury next year is minor, then yes, there is a non zero chance that a non zero chance injury could equate to non zero chance best season for McDavid. But if you are asking me, would Oiler fans be OK with the non zero chance that McDavids best season is next year? Well, I would say that there is a non zero chance that the patience of Edmonton Oiler fans is nowhere near zero so if there is non zero chance that McDavid has his best statistical season next year, there is a non zero chance that Oiler fans would be OK with the non zero chance that next year would be McDavids best.”

  82. Chachi says:

    Frank SeravalliVerified account
    ‏@frank_seravalli
    Amazing on many levels: Oldham revealed Wideman inflammatory text msg was sent to Gregory Campbell, son of Colin, who made initial ruling.

    If you ever wondered what kind of an organization the NHL is this says it all. What a bush league move. Also, we knew Colin Campbell was a dick, but I wonder how this turns out for his son who just ratted out one of his NHLPA colleagues to his daddy. No matter what you think about the punishment given to Wideman (since he is a Flame I would have been happy if his punishment was getting strapped to a rocket and being fired directly into the sun) this is the kind of thing that leads people to believe that it is completely possible that the league would do things like call more penalties on certain teams and give certain teams breaks when it comes to doling out suspensions.
    Brutal.

  83. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Caramel Batman,

    – Yes Batman.It’s kitchen sink next year.It’s not about restocking the farm, its not about : “what about the contracts in 3 years”.They have 5 big pieces next 12 months to remake this team:
    1) Ebs (or Hall)
    2) This year’s first
    3) The $5MM+ cash that comes off for Nikitin and Ferrence, and maybe creative buy-out
    4) Nurse + Yak + AHL, for a 3:1
    5) Next years first (assume they are middle of road come next trade deadline: they trade their first for another piece)

    – All of these 5 “pieces” can translate into Chia-players.Except for the Ebs/Hall: 2-5 improve the team with no subtractions.Massive improvements are possible if executed properly

    – You could get a “Seth Jones” for Drai as well: the comp is set.I’d rather have 2 great C in RNH and Conner and an elite D than 3 elite C’s….

    IMO, trading a 6’4″ 21 year old Defenseman who hits and skates like Nurse is more asinine than trading any of the beloved core. I don’t get people on this site. 3 months ago I suggested trading some of the rotten core and was blasted for it but now it’s suggested daily by those same people. Now we are throwing guys like Drai and Nurse out there as trade bait so we can keep Nuge? Give me a break.

    I’m sorry I forgot, guys with Nurse’s size/speed/tenacity combo grow on trees….Ship him out if it means we get to keep Nuge! Lol. Sigh….

  84. Pajamah says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: IMO, trading a 6’4″ 21 year old Defenseman who hits and skates like Nurse is more asinine than trading any of the beloved core. I don’t get people on this site. 3 months ago I suggested trading some of the rotten core and was blasted for it but now it’s suggested daily by those same people. Now we are throwing guys like Drai and Nurse out there as trade bait so we can keep Nuge? Give me a break.

    I’m sorry I forgot, guys with Nurse’s size/speed/tenacity combo grow on trees….Ship him out if it means we get to keep Nuge! Lol. Sigh….

    There is a non-zero chance they trade Nurse.

    Now, I’m not sure what that means, but the important part to remember here is non-zero.

    Edit: See Father John’s comment, he did it better than I did.

  85. Lowetide says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: IMO, trading a 6’4″ 21 year old Defenseman who hits and skates like Nurse is more asinine than trading any of the beloved core. I don’t get people on this site. 3 months ago I suggested trading some of the rotten core and was blasted for it but now it’s suggested daily by those same people. Now we are throwing guys like Drai and Nurse out there as trade bait so we can keep Nuge? Give me a break.

    I’m sorry I forgot, guys with Nurse’s size/speed/tenacity combo grow on trees….Ship him out if it means we get to keep Nuge! Lol. Sigh….

    Darnell Nurse brings a lot of skills to the game, but he is not a mature player and the Oilers need four men who can play NHL defense next season. I am fine with him as a 5-6D or in the AHL, but for me entering the season relying on him top 4D is a bad idea.

  86. Snowman says:

    frjohnk,

    I cannot for the life of me figure out what he’s actually saying…which since its Dreger makes perfect sense because he’s the master of speaking without saying much.

  87. Alpine says:

    Nurse can hit and skate but he can he think at the NHL level? That’s the one thing will likely make the difference for him as far as becoming a 2D rather than a 4D. You can be a top pairing guy by only scoring 20 points, but you can’t if you leak chances and have trouble with moving the puck out of danger areas.

  88. fifthcartel says:

    LowetideNurse comment.

    You put it very well, Lowetide.

    I find it very interesting when Klefbom and Nurse are talked about like they’re similar levels of players.

    They can’t count on Nurse playing a top-4 role, and I feel like Chiarelli won’t.

  89. frjohnk says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: IMO, trading a 6’4″ 21 year old Defenseman who hits and skates like Nurse is more asinine than trading any of the beloved core. I don’t get people on this site. 3 months ago I suggested trading some of the rotten core and was blasted for it but now it’s suggested daily by those same people. Now we are throwing guys like Drai and Nurse out there as trade bait so we can keep Nuge? Give me a break.

    I’m sorry I forgot, guys with Nurse’s size/speed/tenacity combo grow on trees….Ship him out if it means we get to keep Nuge! Lol. Sigh….

    The reasoning for some to trade Nurse, is that Nurse is still 2, 3 years away from being an impact player ( top 3 D man) So for instance in a Nurse for Hamonic swap, while Nurse might become a better player than Hamonic down the road, Hamonic is better now and will be for the next couple of years.

    Trading Nuge for Hamonic will make the defense better but we will lose depth up front.

    If we look at it like this, the more we can add to the top 6 forwards and top 4 Dmen without subtracting from there, the team will become better. Nuge is in that category, Nurse isnt’.

    BUT MY STANCE IS TO NOT TRADE NURSE

    We have other assets we can use to get 2 top 4 Dmen without involving Nurse.

    -Cap space.
    -Draft pick (s)
    -Trade a top 6 forward for lets say Hamonic, knowing that in FA you can replace traded forward.

    For anybody that wants to trade Nurse, would you trade him to Calgary?

  90. striatic says:

    frjohnk: For anybody that wants to trade Nurse, would you trade him to Calgary?

    I’m not exactly thrilled at the prospect of trading Nurse, but that depends a lot on who you’re getting back and I don’t think Calgary has any defensemen that would benefit the Oilers to trade Nurse for.

    Asking “If Travis Hamonic was a Calgary Flame, would you trade Darnell Nurse for him?” might get more positive responses.

  91. frjohnk says:

    fifthcartel: I find it very interesting when Klefbom and Nurse are talked about like they’re similar levels of players

    Nurse is two years younger than Klefbom.
    2 years ago Klefbom showed a ton of raw talent but was 3rd pairing in the AHL and was not exactly lighting it up.
    Nurse has had a similar season this year, but he has been in the NHL.

    I would say that Nurse is ahead today of where Klefbom was two years ago.

    But we don’t know if Nurse will make the strides in progress that Klefbom did as Klefbom made some impressive gains in development
    (especially offense)

  92. frjohnk says:

    striatic: I’m not exactly thrilled at the prospect of trading Nurse, but that depends a lot on who you’re getting back and I don’t think Calgary has any defensemen that would benefit the Oilers to trade Nurse for.

    Asking “If Travis Hamonic was a Calgary Flame, would you trade Darnell Nurse for him?” might get more positive responses.

    yeah, my question was rushed.

    There is the issue that you cant be scared of what you are trading away.

    And for many Oilers, it wouldn’t bother me on how they turn out on another team, even if they light it like Yak could if traded.

    But for Nurse, I think the potential exists, that down the road, he would become one of most important players on the team. The potential also exists that down the road, that he becomes a better skating Jason Smith, but that still has value.

    FWIW, I would not trade a better skating Jason Smith to the Flames, unless an even bigger, meaner and better skating Jason Smith was coming back.

  93. anonymous says:

    PhrankLee: 20(!!) 50 point seasons with a vacay in the KHL.. Unreal.

    Three lockouts, almost two full seasons worth of games.

  94. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Chachi,

    If Wideman was pissed at the ruling by the league, why would he seek out Gregory Campbell and bitch to Gregory about Colin’s ruling??

    Only thing that makes sense is that Wideman truly was concussed or he’s as dumb as a bag of hammers.

    I’m leaning toward the latter. (No offence to the bag of hammers)

    Fuck the Flames.

  95. fifthcartel says:

    frjohnk,

    I’m not sure if he was 3rd pairing in the AHL, but he was a good 3rd pairing in the NHL for his short stint, which looks a lot better than Nurse’s right now.

    I don’t think I’d say Nurse is ahead of Klefbom was at the same time.

  96. frjohnk says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Chachi,

    If Wideman was pissed at the ruling by the league, why would he seek out Gregory Campbelland bitch to Gregory about Colin’s ruling??

    Only thing that makes sense is that Wideman truly was concussed or he’s as dumb as a bag of hammers.

    I’m leaning toward the latter.(No offence to the bag of hammers)

    Fuck the Flames.

    Burkes press conference should be entertaining.

  97. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Lowetide: Darnell Nurse brings a lot of skills to the game, but he is not a mature player and the Oilers need four men who can play NHL defense next season. I am fine with him as a 5-6D or in the AHL, but for me entering the season relying on him top 4D is a bad idea.

    Agreed. Develop him as #5 or #6 or more AHL seasoning. Don’t trade long term for short term. Let him grow with McDavid. There are other ways to acquire a top 4 dman for next season. Trading Nurse shouldn’t be one of them. I trust Chiarelli on this one.

  98. frjohnk says:

    fifthcartel:
    frjohnk,

    I’m not sure if he was 3rd pairing in the AHL, but he was a good 3rd pairing in the NHL for his short stint, which looks a lot better than Nurse’s right now.

    I don’t think I’d say Nurse is ahead of Klefbom was at the same time.

    Looking back at Willis’s take on OKC that year, Klefbom was down on the depth chart. He showed incredible raw talent but was adjusting to the AHL game.

    Maybe I’m wrong in saying that Nurse is better today than Klefom was 2years ago, but Nurse definitely has the raw talent and work ethic to make good strides not unlike Klefbom did.

    I’ve always said and believed Nurse is not the type of guy you bet against.

  99. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Looking back at Willis’s take on OKC that year, Klefbom was down on the depth chart. He showed incredible raw talent but was adjusting to the AHL game.

    Maybe I’m wrong in saying that Nurse is better today than Klefom was 2years ago, but Nurse definitely has the raw talent and work ethic to make good strides not unlike Klefbom did.

    I’ve always said and believed Nurse is not the type of guy you bet against.

    The argument I make is this: It takes five years, and you should not trade a player until you know what you have. If a team is willing to offer you someone who is a reasonable bet to be as good today as the prospect will ever become, then maybe you change your view. Nurse was drafted in 2013. We are year three. Worth remembering.

  100. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    Darren Dreger on TSN 1260 this morning,

    “In regards to the Edmonton Oilers and specifically Connor McDavid, there are growing concerns that there could be a non zero chance that Connor McDavid has his best year statistically next season.But with the non zero chance that he gets injured again, the non zero chance of McDavid having his best year becomes zero chance.But on the flip side, with the non zero chance that McDavid is injury prone every year and his non zero chance injury next year is minor, then yes, there is a non zero chance that a non zero chance injury could equate to non zero chance best season for McDavid.But if you are asking me, would Oiler fans be OK with the non zero chance that McDavids best season is next year?Well, I would say that there is a non zero chance that the patience of Edmonton Oiler fans is nowhere near zero so if there is non zero chance that McDavid has his best statistical season next year, there is a non zero chance that Oiler fans would be OK with the non zero chance that next year would be McDavids best.”

    *standing and clapping strongly*

  101. StixMalone says:

    The Nuge is back!……

  102. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: The argument I make is this: It takes five years, and you should not trade a player until you know what you have. If a team is willing to offer you someone who is a reasonable bet to be as good today as the prospect will ever become, then maybe you change your view. Nurse was drafted in 2013. We are year three. Worth remembering.

    Totally understand this as well.

  103. Woodguy says:

    StixMalone:
    The Nuge is back!……

    NNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUGGGGGEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  104. Adam Wu says:

    When it comes to trading Nurse, or RNH, or Eberle, or Hall, or Yakupov, or anyone, the big picture is simple. For the right return, you would trade anyone.

    And if you can’t get that return, you keep them.

    Fundamentally simple.

    The details are what pistols at high noon are for….

  105. Caramel Batman says:

    If Nurse turns into Hamonic we will all be ecstatic.

    Hence if you can turn Nurse into Hamonic by trading him we should all be ecstatic.

    I mean does anyone seriously think that Nurse is going to be better than Hamonic as a baseline projection? That has to be his upside that he would reach, say, 20% of the time. I think that’s as optimistic as a person can be on Nurse.

    The problem is that I don’t see Snow agreeing to the trade. It’s a slamdunk win for the Oilers.

  106. kgo says:

    Caramel Batman:
    If Nurse turns into Hamonic we will all be ecstatic.

    Hence if you can turn Nurse into Hamonic by trading him we should all be ecstatic.

    I mean does anyone seriously think that Nurse is going to be better than Hamonic as a baseline projection?That has to be his upside that he would reach, say, 20% of the time.I think that’s as optimistic as a person can be on Nurse.

    The problem is that I don’t see Snow agreeing to the trade.It’s a slamdunk win for the Oilers.

    Yes I seriously think Nurse will be better than Hamonic as a baseline projection. There’s a chance he never puts it all together (fast Gator). There’s a chance everything clicks (black Pronger)

    Nurse is already a better skater than Hamonic. He’s faster, more agile, and has better balance.

  107. OF17 says:

    Man, great news on Nuge. Gives so much more depth and flexibility it’s ridiculous.

    His return means you can choose between having 3 pretty good lines or 2 really good ones. If you run 3 centres, you can go something like Hall-Nuge-Kassian, Maroon-Draisaitl-Eberle, XXXX-McDavid-Yakupov, or if you swap one to wing, you could roll Hall-Nuge-Draisaitl, Maroon-McDavid-Eberle, Kassian-Letestu-Yakupov. Of course any of those pieces can be moved around to find the right mix. Nuge provides the flexibility and insurance though, and god damn is it nice to have him back.

  108. OF17 says:

    Also, for the record, trading Nurse for Hamonic is good business. Gives the D more balance, brings the timeframe forward. Only way it happens is a combination of Snow feeling backed into a corner and liking the unique elements that Nurse brings to the game, which means his opinion of Nurse is really the only thing we don’t know. If he’s willing to pull the trigger on Nurse or even Nurse + for Hamonic, that’s an easy yes.

    And I like Nurse too. Don’t get me wrong. But definitely improving the team is more valuable than maybe in 2-3 years having a team that’s better than if you didn’t do the deal. Should be an easy yes as far as I’m concerned.

  109. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Top 10 NHL players via 5v5 pts/60 (400+ min)

    MCDAVID, CONNOR2.94 *
    KUZNETSOV, EVGENY2.76
    JAGR, JAROMIR2.66
    KANE, PATRICK2.62
    CROSBY, SIDNEY2.53
    CAMMALLERI, MIKE2.45
    DRAISAITL, LEON2.45 *
    THORNTON, JOE2.41
    HALL, TAYLOR2.37 *
    GAUDREAU, JOHNNY2.37

    That’s insane given they are one of the worst teams in the league.

    Hurry Chia, fix the rest of the goddam team!!

    Stamkos was right. He may not win the Calder, but he’s the 5×5 best player already.

    There is a non-zero chance that his number this year may rapidly decline over the next 25 years to 3rd overall.

  110. Stelio Kontos says:

    Woodguy:
    Top 10 NHL players via 5v5 pts/60 (400+ min)

    MCDAVID, CONNOR2.94 *
    KUZNETSOV, EVGENY2.76
    JAGR, JAROMIR2.66
    KANE, PATRICK2.62
    CROSBY, SIDNEY2.53
    CAMMALLERI, MIKE2.45
    DRAISAITL, LEON2.45 *
    THORNTON, JOE2.41
    HALL, TAYLOR2.37 *
    GAUDREAU, JOHNNY2.37

    That’s insane given they are one of the worst teams in the league.

    Hurry Chia, fix the rest of the goddam team!!

    Don’t know worst team applies when you have 3 of the top 10 …

  111. OF17 says:

    Магия 10: Stamkos was right. He may not win the Calder, but he’s the 5×5 best player already.

    Amazingly, yes, he was right. If I were playing game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final tomorrow, I’d rather have McDavid than Stamkos on my team.

    As bad as our luck was on the Nuge and Yakupov 1st overalls (and I love Nuge, but you can’t say you’d rather have him than Kane or Stamkos), we more than made up for it with McDavid.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Stelio Kontos: Don’t know worst team applies when you have 3 of the top 10 …

    Last 4 years (including this one)

    Oiler’s goal share:

    Hall on ice 51.67%

    Hall not on the ice 38.62%

    McDavid obv. changes that equation, but the team…..she’s no good.

    RHD is biggest hole now……..

    Hurry Chia

  113. Магия 10 says:

    Oldham noted that the play fell into rule 40.3, in which a player is suspended 10 games where physical force is applied to an official “without intent to injure.”

    Whatever you think he deserved it was clear from the minute the league tied 20 games to 40.2 that the full process would overturn it. They might have had more luck if they based everything on 40.3 and argued it was a minimum. But they were intent on playing to the gallery and mickey mousing the appeal process to the defacto 18 games served. #wtys

  114. PhrankLee says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Fuck the Flames.

    Amen.

  115. Snowman says:

    Woodguy:

    ….the team…..she’s no good.

    This should be on a t-shirt.

    Edmonton Oilers 2007-2016

    “The team…she’s no good.”

  116. One-Timer says:

    Caramel Batman: What makes you think that he is going to keep getting better?Most phenoms peak early, it is part of what makes them phenoms.

    There is a non-zero chance that next year will be McDavid’s best season of his career.

    [Edit] And it is a virtual certainty that 8 years he will be on the down slope.

    Caramel Trollman

    Gretz won Stanleys in his 6th, 7th, 9th and 10th years of pro hockey.
    Downward slope indeed.

  117. Магия 10 says:

    StixMalone:
    The Nuge is back!……

    Let Chia’s high fidelity winger evaluations begin,

  118. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman:
    If Nurse turns into Hamonic we will all be ecstatic.

    Hence if you can turn Nurse into Hamonic by trading him we should all be ecstatic.

    I mean does anyone seriously think that Nurse is going to be better than Hamonic as a baseline projection?That has to be his upside that he would reach, say, 20% of the time.I think that’s as optimistic as a person can be on Nurse.

    The problem is that I don’t see Snow agreeing to the trade.It’s a slamdunk win for the Oilers.

    20% eh? That the same analysis that got you the “non zero chance” theory?

    Nurse is bigger, meaner, has a much better draft pedigree, and put up similar numbers in junior. Nurse was the best defenseman in junior hockey last year. He is an elite skater.

    People forget Hamonic played some in the AHL, then played a whole year in the NHL before being sent back to the AHL for 21 games in his third season.

    While he has a nice CF% of 51.8% this year (near the top his team), he was middling/ near the bottom for the three years before that. He may not be the savior everyone thinks he may. he sure won’t have the support here he does in NY.

    You know why people want to trade for Hamonic? Because he may be available. Were he not, I doubt many would be focused on him.

    Personally, I put Nurse on the farm and sign Demers and/or Goligoski.

  119. kinger_OIL says:

    fifthcartel,

    – Yeah, Nurse isn’t ahead of Klef at same time. Nurse is way sloppier than Klef, but he goons it up more, so he is more “valued”. The density of some of these posters (not you 5th) bothers me. Nurse is clearly not going to be an elite top-2 D (his scoring has always been very weak). Meaning he’s not going to be awesome 40 point scorer and shut-down and impact. He’s just not a 5-tool D. Will he be effective: probably a good bet: Marincin was lock and load at one point as well

    – You trade Nurse’s “magic bean” potential which is a #3 D or maybe #2 in 3-5 years, to a team that needs to get rid of a bonafide #3/4 D today, and the Oil is much better.

    – You have to give to get. Nurse we can give to get.. And no projections suggest he’s going to be #1 D. His DCF vs another Sekera next season, signed for 4 years is a no-brainer.

  120. One-Timer says:

    kgo: Yes I seriously think Nurse will be better than Hamonic as a baseline projection.There’s a chance he never puts it all together (fast Gator). There’s a chance everything clicks (black Pronger)

    The thing is, you’d be equally correct in calling him the White Pronger, which I’ll admit is senseless. He’s as much white as black and vice versa.

    It’s a mouthful, but I’m looking forward to Nurse becoming the Mixed-Race Pronger.

  121. Norman Greenbaum says:

    One-Timer: The thing is, you’d be equally correct in calling him the White Pronger, which I’ll admit is senseless.He’s as much white as black and vice versa.

    It’s a mouthful, but I’m looking forward to Nurse becoming the Mixed-Race Pronger.

    Can’t we just call him the next Chris Pronger and not even bring race into it?

  122. One-Timer says:

    Norman Greenbaum,

    That would be even better!

  123. godot10 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    If Nurse turns into Hamonic we will all be ecstatic.

    Hence if you can turn Nurse into Hamonic by trading him we should all be ecstatic.

    I mean does anyone seriously think that Nurse is going to be better than Hamonic as a baseline projection?That has to be his upside that he would reach, say, 20% of the time.I think that’s as optimistic as a person can be on Nurse.

    The problem is that I don’t see Snow agreeing to the trade.It’s a slamdunk win for the Oilers.

    I’m not trading a potential 10-years of a cost controlled Nurse for 4 years of Hamonic.

    The Oilers need to add D, NOT swap D.

    Swapping Nurse for Hamonic means the Oilers still need another defenesmen. And it dramatically shortens the McDavid window.

    If Hamonic can be added without deleting Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse, or Davidson, I am all for it.

  124. Johnny Larue says:

    There is no way the team trades Nurse. Luckily the team is being run by competent people. He is exactly what we need it would be like Ottawa trading Chara

  125. dangilitis says:

    LP: oh ya,Jagr is killing it… at the ripe age of 44.

    Imagine if he had stayed full time in the NHL.

    #Jagr_is_a_DemiGod

    Imagine if he actually came here and played with Hemsky. It would have made a few more seasons tolerable!

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