THE SAIL ON LIST

You and I can talk about last night—the shot differential, the possession numbers—but based on the comments I had to delete overnight it is probably unproductive. Let’s talk instead about assets, the ones Edmonton may send away this summer.

WHY DO THEY PLAY SATURDAY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 4-3-0
  • Oilers after 71 in 2014-15: 19-39-13, 51 points (-74 GD)
  • Oilers after 71 in 2015-16: 27-37-7, 61 points (-40 GD)

Not much to say, the Oilers won the possession battle, hit a bunch of posts, but in the end it came down to execution. I am in favor of it.

draisaitl orange capture1

THE NO-TRADE LIST

  1. C Connor McDavid. Clearly the top asset the Oilers have and the cornerstone for the future. I don’t think there is a better player in the world to build a young team around at this time.
  2. L Taylor Hall. Despite playing six seasons in the second division, the guy is a winner. A fabulous even-strength performer, he pushes the river and is a rare difference-maker.
  3. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. A fine two-way C who is signed through 2021 summer. I fear Peter Chiarelli may not see that he is in fact David Krecji, but if the GM is smart he will keep his powder dry and employ the Nuge next year (and beyond).
  4. C Leon Draisaitl. The big German has emerged as an important part of the team, easily part of the top six, whether a center or wing. His passing is fantastic, and his size somewhat unique among these players. I expect there will be a lot of pressure on PC to trade him—by that I mean the offers will be strong.
  5. D Oscar Klefbom. He has reached a point (to my mind) where we can say he is a more complete player than the other young blue. OK can play in all disciplines and flourish—that is unique among Edmonton’s blue—with the only concern being injury.

davidson injury capture

THE UNLIKELY TO BE TRADED LIST

  1. D Brandon Davidson. He is a terrific story, but beyond that a valuable and useful player. Davidson’s range of skills—he has a fine shot, can move the puck, pass, defend, calm the play—are countered only by his growing list of injuries. Fantastic contract.
  2. G Cam Talbot. Edmonton appears to have found themselves a starter, zero sense in sending him away now. His big test will come in the fall, where Oilers goalies have been unable to keep things together and keep the team in contention.
  3. L Benoit Pouliot. Although he probably becomes trade bait if Milan Lucic signs with the Oilers, I don’t believe that will happen—and Pouliot is an effective player. Underrated by most Edmonton fans.
  4. D Andrej Sekera. Veteran free-agent pickup has been an effective player since about the third week of the season. Along with Klefbom and Davidson, offers Chiarelli a reasonable LH set for next season.
  5. D Darnell Nurse. I can’t see the Oilers trading the big man, he could be a big part of the solution for this team in the future. He may need more time in the minors, and certainly needs to have his minutes cut back if he continues to develop at the NHL level.

eberle10

THE SAIL ON LIST

  1. R Jordan Eberle. There are several reasons why Eberle has both substantial value and remains tradeable. First, his contract runs out in 2019. Second, he is a winger, and a complementary one, although very talented. He has enough value (imo) to cover a one-for-one deal in which Chiarelli can address RH in one move. That makes Eberle a rare gem in this summer’s movements.
  2. First-round draft pick. I think this may well be the top trade chip heading to summer. The conversation often surrounds trading out completely, but for me there is some value in trading down as well. If the Oilers win the draft lottery, there would likely be enormous value in dealing down to No. 2 or No. 3. I think the gap between Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine may be far less than the possible trade value in doing so—there is a little area there where real trade value might be found.
  3. R Nail Yakupov. Although Yak has struggled a great deal during his time in Edmonton, one suspects there is a team and coach out there convinced they can unlock him. The return will not be great—I bet people will be shocked at the poor return—and his talent plus value contract may be enough for him to stay another year.
  4. D Mark Fayne. He has settled in to deliver a good year on defense, and I think some team might take him over the summer. Edmonton may not ask much in return, preferring to use that money on signing a better fit—like Jason Demers.
  5. D Griffin Reinhart. As was the case with Paul Mara in Boston, Chiarelli took very little time to move on from a bet. GR has value, and teams are always looking for defensemen.
  6. F Lauri Korpikoski. Todd McLellan clearly values the Finn, so unlikely he would be sent away. That said, if the veteran is part of the ask for something Edmonton requires (say, a backup goalie) then I believe he could go.

I also believe some of those picks outside the first round may help in adding actual NHL players to the lineup for next season. Here is my understanding (as of today) of Edmonton’s draft picks for 2016:

  1. No. 2 overall
  2. No. 32 overall
  3. No. 62 overall
  4. No. 76 overall (Pittsburgh pick)
  5. No. 83 overall (Florida pick)
  6. No. 122 overall
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)
  8. No. 152 overall
  9. No. 182 overall

That pick at No. 32, or some of the other ones before No. 100 overall, could bring in someone useful. The Oilers pro scouting folks are key here, that may or may not concern you.

No idea if this is true, have not seen another source and mention it only because this is such an interesting player. Here is the HF scouting report:

  • HF: Opinions vary widely on Sallinen. Some scouts view him as a Bobby Holik-type power forward while others feel he is merely a big bodied, undisciplined player who put up big scoring numbers playing against smaller junior players but does not have the requisite skill level to be successful at the NHL level. On the plus side, his energy and enthusiasm, as well as a willingness to compete all over the ice, are popular with both teammates and fans alike. While not as awe inspiring as some of the other prospects in Finland, Sallinen is a strong skater and also handles the puck well in traffic. Unfortunately, he suffered a back injury this past season which limited his season to nine games. With his punishing style of play, that is something that has teams concerned. Source

His NHLE is 24 points in 82 games, so we are not looking at a fabulous offensive answer. He does have some of the things one associates with a Chiarelli player—fast, bigger body (he is listed at 6.0, 183, so that number may be wrong).

Lots of fun players to procure in Erie, including big Nick Betz who we have discussed a few times on this blog. He fits the Chiarelli template better than the Finn.

I say screw ’em. Although my personal wish would be that another team wins the lottery, this silly backlash against the Oilers has me re-thinking that idea. If you understand that the rules were crafted with blocking the Oilers in mind, and further see the humor in the NHL once again twisting themselves into a knot to block Edmonton, then the only just outcome is another lottery win. I will light a candle, suggest you do too.

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124 Responses to "THE SAIL ON LIST"

  1. The Trade Guy says:

    My decision to never watch Pacific division Cali and Arizona games continues to be rewarded.

  2. Norman Greenbaum says:

    We’ve reached the point where there is only one name on the no-trade list: Connor McDavid. I’m guessing if Chia has such a list, then he’s on it, probably in bold italics 24pt underlined. Then in small, Cam Talbot. The rest? Go ask your mum, son.

    I’ll bet a dollar to a pinch of shit that if every team were to submit their ‘No Trade’ lists for our perusal, then every single player we want would be on them. It’s the nature of that beast – we’ve all got those players we wouldn’t trade. I’m talking your Stamkos’, Subbans, etc.

    Trades for lesser players happen because you are wilfully blind to their defects as players, or hope you can mitigate them enough for him to be an effective player for you.

    If I was Chia, I’d go to the dressing room and remind the players that the rest of the league has that new-fangled video analysis too, and that nobody is getting out of this alive. Except you in the corner. Number #97. You got a name kid?

  3. Norman Greenbaum says:

    The Trade Guy:
    My decision to never watch Pacific division Cali and Arizona games continues to be rewarded.

    I watch them because I’m a fan.

    That’s like saying “I’ve found that the best tactic when my wife’s upset is to ignore her.”

    Bon Chance, mon ami.

  4. Younger Oil says:

    Sallinen played on a KHL team with players such as Phil Larsen, Jesse Joensuu, and Jani Rita funnily enough.

    25 years old, led his team in PIMs, potentially has better scoring than a good chunk of our bottom 6.

    The more Fins the better I suppose, and in the very least he’s a good add to the Condors. Probably a better bet to make the NHL than most unsigned 20 year old FAs coming out of junior.

    Does this mean that we are unable to sign any more players, or it doesn’t matter since he won’t play for us until next year?

  5. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Apparently, this Sallinen is quite a salty fellow……

    *trombone* Wah wah wah…

  6. dustrock says:

    McDavid is the only untouchable. After yet another 30th place finish, how could it be otherwise?

  7. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    Sallinen played on a KHL team with players such as Phil Larsen, Jesse Joensuu, and Jani Rita funnily enough.

    25 years old, led his team in PIMs, potentially has better scoring than a good chunk of our bottom 6.

    The more Fins the better I suppose, and in the very least he’s a good add to the Condors. Probably a better bet to make the NHL than most unsigned 20 year old FAs coming out of junior.

    Does this mean that we are unable to sign any more players, or it doesn’t matter since he won’t play for us until next year?

    We have to get a confirm first, then find out the nature of the contract.

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    Interesting interview last night after the game. HNIC panel on Yak. Teams interested in Yak and feel the can unlock Yak and Oilers is unwilling to just give him away.

  9. Max Powers says:

    I was wondering this before klefbom got injured and the hamonic rumours were out there in full force… Wouldn’t Klefbom for Hamonic straight up be a good trade for the oil? I mean what’s the ceiling for Oscar? Wouldn’t it be a top pairing defenseman on a playoff team? Isn’t that what Hamonic is already?

    Even if Oscar turned out to be better wouldn’t you still be happy with a top pairing defenseman? It’s not like its potential for potential like last summers big trade.

    I guess the real question is would that trade happen or am I being unrealistic?

  10. Halfwise says:

    Norman Greenbaum: I watch them because I’m a fan.

    That’s like saying “I’ve found that the best tactic when my wife’s upset is to ignore her.”

    Bon Chance, mon ami.

    Just to build on the theme of what to learn from being in a relationship with The Edmonton Oilers:

    This team reminds me of the difference between approval and acceptance. I accept that the Oilers are frustrating to watch, in the recent and current incarnations. I don’t approve. I’ll probably always be a fan, but that doesn’t mean I’m happy with what they do.

    Gotta keep some boundaries in this relationship, otherwise we fans just end up being abused, like all enablers.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Max Powers:
    I was wondering this before klefbom got injured and the hamonic rumours were out there in full force… Wouldn’t Klefbom for Hamonic straight up be a good trade for the oil? I mean what’s the ceiling for Oscar? Wouldn’t it be a top pairing defenseman on a playoff team? Isn’t that what Hamonic is already?

    Even if Oscar turned out to be better wouldn’t you still be happy with a top pairing defenseman? It’s not like its potential for potential like last summers big trade.

    I guess the real question is would that trade happen or am I being unrealistic?

    It might be a fair deal, but for me that defeats the purpose. Edmonton needs to add, not exchange.

  12. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    How would you rate Taylor Hall’s hockey sense?

  13. Kmart99 says:

    The Oilers are the StephCurry of Lottery wins and I don’t care if they win 3 more.

    If you want the Oilers to stop winning the lottery, then stop beating us at hockey! 😉

    What happens first?
    McDavid leads the league in scoring, or the Oil make the playoffs?
    Oilers win the draft lottery, or the Oil make the playoffs?

    Remember when Hall, Ebs, Schultz, and Nuge were 4 of the top 6 scorers in the AHL and the Barons WEREN’T in a playoff spot? There’s a lesson there, I swear it.

  14. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    R Nail Yakupov. Although Yak has struggled a great deal during his time in Edmonton, one suspects there is a team and coach out there convinced they can unlock him. The return will not be great—I bet people will be shocked at the poor return—and his talent plus value contract may be enough for him to stay another year.

    I won’t be shocked if the Oilers trade Yak for a very poor return… just frustrated. However, if Yak is traded, I’m going to continue to cheer like hell for him. Nice young man with a lot of raw talent. Watching the Oilers repeatedly draft high and sell low, I wonder how Yak’s career would have played out on a different team all these years. I’m hoping it’s not too late for Yak to find a killer career.

  15. McSorley33 says:

    If the Sallinen news is true, sounds like Tmac will have another option for our PP.

    #playtheplugsonpp

  16. stush18 says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    How would you rate Taylor Hall’s hockey sense?

    I think he gets by with his natural talent, speed, and strength. He has sense, but not elite like party Kane for example. I think this is why he excels at 5 on 5 play, because he can beat defenders 1×1. When the powerplay comes around though, he doesn’t need to find space.

    Still first line winger material for sure, and I think we need more players that can push the pace at even strength. But I think if he stays on the powerplay he’s going to need to move to the front of the net.

  17. The Trade Guy says:

    Norman Greenbaum: I watch them because I’m a fan.

    That’s like saying “I’ve found that the best tactic when my wife’s upset is to ignore her.”

    Bon Chance, mon ami.

    Nah watching a bad hockey team play boring games is nothing like a marriage but I’m not gonna make fun of anyone who wants to watch games like this but I probably could.

  18. Woogie63 says:

    Sail On

    MacT, Howson and KLowe

  19. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Do you think once Trump becomes president this #movetoCanada movement will hit NHL free agents? 🙂 🙂 🙂 all the Canadien teams make the playoffs! When does this election actually happen, 10 years from now? Their system confuses me.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    I would actually have Davidson on the do not trade list. No one knows who he is. During the wild game commentators for the wild were talking how much we were missing Kbomb and Gryba. Not even a mention of Davidson. Don’t think a team would offer what he really is worth. They would probably see him as a throw in into a bigger deal.

    If you have the opportunity to draft Matthews you do it. It’s not like we will be any more hated for having 5 #1 instead of 4.

  21. Norman Greenbaum says:

    The Trade Guy: Nah watching a bad hockey team play boring games is nothing like a marriage but I’m not gonna make fun of anyone who wants to watch games like this but I probably could.

    Fair weather fan. Got it.

  22. Kmart99 says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    There’s a player there, I swear it. My belief is that his horrible defensive game is due in part to Eakins. Yak over thinks the defensive side of the game because he thinks that is the key to more ice time.
    I just remember a rookie who focused so much on offense that the defensive warts weren’t all that noticeable to me. Eakins smashed that player in 2 games. Yak has never been the same.

    At a glance, I can see talent oozing from this kid, but over a full game his lack of confidence and overall execution become insurmountable.

    The key to saving Yakupov’s career is trading him. Getting 11mins/night in Edmonton will never work for this player.

    Every hockey player who plays to score goals knows how valuable ice time is in relation to confidence, so unless the Oilers start gifting Yak 18+min/night he’ll never pull out of this slump. I do not recommend Yak play that many minutes on this roster. I recommend trading him, for Yak’s sake.

  23. Lowetide says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    How would you rate Taylor Hall’s hockey sense?

    I would give it a 9. It has a great beat and you can dance to it.

  24. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Good list I would only swap Hall with Nurse. While he is still young, trading away a 6’4, 21 yr old dman who hits, stands up for his teammates and can skate faster backwards than most guys forward is the best way to set your franchise back years. All he needs is time to develop and mature. Guys with his size/speed combo don’t grow on trees. If you play GM for a day knowing what you know about Chia and how much they’ve overplayed Nurse i’d say almost definitively they wont even consider trading him.

    As for Hall, I would say while it’s unlikely he is moved I could see Chia moving for the right price. He is so frustrating to discuss here on Lowetide because many fans here can’t take off their bias glasses and look at his game objectively. I compare his game to Phil Kessel ( who ironically Chia traded). Terrific skater, “pushes the river” as people say and gets a lot of points but something is missing there. Not unlike Kessel there are many other facets to his game that is lacking. Fans seem to overlook these because of “his possession numbers” and he “pushes the river” and other fancy stats. Hall carries the puck too long, takes a ton of shots from terrible angles, make SEVERAL bad decisions with the puck EVERY game and attempts so many cross ice low percentage passes he kills rushes. Period. Yes he is a good player based on his offensive stats but when you carry the puck that much and shooting from everywhere you are going to get points. But it’s a team game and you kill momentum with the perimeter game. The Oilers have been this way for too long. We need more bangers who can get the puck deep, cycle the puck and cause fits for the defense. Hall and his “skate miles while he does a drive by shooting” is the opposite of that. It’s not the kind of hockey Tmac or Chia want to play.

    Argue about the comparison all you want but in his first 6 seasons Kessel had four 30+ goal seasons. Hall has none. But, but, but nothing. PPG is only a stat. Did he score 30 goals or not? No. He could drop off a cliff any of those seasons he got hurt just like this year. Hall like Kessel is too much of a one man show and that doesn’t equate to wins. Why can’t he succeed with McDavid? Why can’t he adjust? Toews and Kane can when needed, Malkin-Crosby can when the team needs them. Hall “pushes the river” and is a good possession player because he plays an individual game not a team one.

    Bottom line, its a team game not a one man show. The Bruins traded Phil Kessel who was coming off a 36 goal season and won the Stanley Cup the next year. Chia could easily recognize that and pull the trigger for a top dman and replace Hall with Lucic and feel good about it. While still unlikely, I wouldn’t list Hall as untouchable anymore.

  25. GCW_69 says:

    dustrock:
    McDavid is the only untouchable.After yet another 30th place finish, how could it be otherwise?

    I think this is absolutely rightz with the following caveats:

    Untouchable list:
    1) McDavid

    Untouchable unless best return in trading Hall, Eberle, or Nuge is a left pairing defender. Thrn, treat it like a chess game and add these players to list of assets you trade for a right defender:
    1) Sekera
    2) Klefbom

    Available without qualification list:
    1) Everybody else

  26. Housty18 says:

    After watching the game last night I could not understand why TMac has Yakupov where he is playing.

    There is no question he has some deficiencys in his game, but what I saw last nigh was a dynamic player that was attacking every shift he got, except for one in the third where he gave the puck away near his blue line with a bad pass.

    The other play that was noticeable was the cycle play that never happened and it made Yak look bad but in reality nobody supported him and when he back hand the puck back to the corner after skating along the side boards up to the offensive blue line… no body moved. Nuge was frozen in front of the net a Korp just stood in the slot.

    It was sad that neither player could not see that for the play to continue they need to move their feet.

    If you watched his cerebral play it was great, he had good instincts to when the puck would show up on his stick or checked a guy off the puck, created a penalty.

    Yak should be with Mcdavid you can tell their is chemistry their. There is no chem with Hall. It is like just putting a bunch of players on the ice hoping just by their greatness that things happen.

    Go back and watch the plays it is not their.. no sake for trying though. Just like the worlds they put Crosby and Hall together, it was not like they had chem but their drive made shit happen. As for Ebs he is mostly complimentary to most player, like Yak.

    Yak though hits, drives play.

    Yak play miles better with Mcdavid than either those two guys Ebs and hall.

    5 years 5 years five years
    Example on another team Sedins were unlocked then, kesler
    it will take this long we must remain patient and we will have a gem, how many first overalls can you get, he is better than any draft pick lower down that you may get in a trade so why would you give up on him/ I see Yak learning to play a heavy game, he needs to master his game around structure and systems that is created for him via the coach, while still seeing he is creative and sees the game a lil differently than most players. Mcdavid i see gets him.

  27. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Here we are again talking about inconsistent effort and play with yet another new coaching staff. Does this not scream lack of leadership and if it does, are your core players not then most responsible? Everyone on this roster should be considered to be traded other than McDavid and Drai!

  28. Johnny skid says:

    McSorley33:
    If the Sallinen news is true, sounds like Tmac will have another option for our PP.

    #playtheplugsonpp

    are you suggesting a alignment of letestu, korpikowski and sallinen on the power-play?

  29. frjohnk says:

    RE: Sallinen

    Signing this guy may give the Oilers a cheaper option for the bottom of the roster if he makes the team or he could make as call up player from the AHL.

    We have some expensive bottom 6 players in Korpikoski, Hendricks, Letestu and if a guy like Khaira is looked at as a replacement for one of those guys that is fine. But there are precious few other callups on the farm. We lack depth, signing Sallinen is an inexpensive option to help fix that.

  30. Kmart99 says:

    This team will never get fair value if they deal Hall, Nuge, Ebs, and YAK. But what’s the worst that could happen? They draft 4 more 1sf overalls and get two generational talents on one team?

    I don’t see the problem here. Let’s go for a 23 man roster with 23 first overall picks! Woohoo!

  31. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: It might be a fair deal, but for me that defeats the purpose. Edmonton needs to add, not exchange.

    If they had a deal on the table for another left defender as a result of trading the pick or one of the core, doesn’t that change the equation? Balance has value too.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Here are the Oiler Forwards sorted by Goals For% – Basically the percentage of the goals the Oilers score when that player is on the ice: (this season only)

    Patrick.Maroon 66.67
    Leon.Draisaitl 55.26
    Taylor.Hall 54.74
    Teddy.Purcell 49.28
    Matt.Hendricks 47.83
    Connor.McDavid 47.27
    Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins 46.03
    Benoit.Pouliot 44.78
    ————————————————————-
    Jordan.Eberle 42.47
    Nail.Yakupov 42.22
    Jujhar.Khaira 41.67
    Iiro.Pakarinen 34.78
    Lauri.Korpikoski 33.33
    Zack.Kassian 31.58
    Anton.Lander 29.63
    Luke.Gazdic 28.57
    Mark.Letestu 28.26
    Anton.Slepyshev 22.22
    Rob.Klinkhammer 12.5
    Adam.Cracknell 0

    Its interesting that if we put a cut line in at 44% it closely reflects LT’s list.

    Generally below 45% is not good and below 40% is below replacement.

    Lots of below replacement players on the Oilers, but we don’t know how much of that is due to Dmen.

    The new hires’ numbers are small samples so stuff like Cracknell being 0 and Maroon being an ungodly 67% show up.

    Here are the Dmen:

    Jordan.Oesterle 66.67
    Adam.Clendening 58.33
    Brandon.Davidson 52.94
    Eric.Gryba 47.27
    Oscar.Klefbom 46.15
    Adam.Pardy 44.44
    ——————————————–
    Andrej.Sekera 43.33
    Mark.Fayne 43.28
    Darnell.Nurse 41.18
    Griffin.Reinhart 40
    Justin.Schultz 38.98
    Brad.Hunt 33.33
    Nikita.Nikitin 28.57
    Andrew.Ference 25

    Again, the 44% line seems to work.

    Sekera falls just below that but in defence of the man here are his GF/60 and GA/60 rates with and without Nurse:

    Sekera with Nurse:

    GF/60 1.76
    GA/60 2.87
    Net -1.11/60

    Sekera without Nurse:
    GF/60 2.02
    GA/60 2.32
    Net -0.3/60

    Safe to say when not saddled with the rookie, Sekera’s GF numbers were ok, especially if you consider that most of its with Fayne.

    Summary:

    Keep the wheat, clean out the chaff.

    Godspeed Peter.

    Make sure you listen to Tyler as well.

  33. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Norman Greenbaum: Fair weather fan.Got it.

    What a ridiculous comment.

    We’ve had a brief glimpse of sunshine, like one of those weeks in February where it’s +15, but otherwise absolute garbage weather for the last.. 15 years or so? I’m 32, third kid on the way, several university degrees and multiple career milestones behind me, and I was basically a teenager the last time the team was consistently good.

    Fair weather fans got off the bus a long long time ago.

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: F Lauri Korpikoski. Todd McLellan clearly values the Finn, so unlikely he would be sent away. That said, if the veteran is part of the ask for something Edmonton requires (say, a backup goalie) then I believe he could go.

    I think we need to take the Coach’s use of this player in concert with the report that the Oilers were asking LK for a list of teams and apparently shopping him around at the deadline.

    These things aren’t mutually exclusive… but they do suggest a more complex set of factors.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Woogie63:
    Sail On

    MacT, Howson and KLowe

    Oh Gords please have none of them in hockey Ops.

    In McDavid’s name I pray.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    It should shock no one that the Oilers are looking at Finns… again (if true).

    This is basically a script with the team now. You simply can’t win without a Finn.

  37. GCW_69 says:

    ” the Oilers won the possession battle…”

    Some might say instead “the Oilers won the score effects battle…” which is a sure way to lose the war.

  38. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Todd McLellan’s post game quotes included:

    -I would tell you the smarter team won the game, hands down

    -they walked away with a 4 nothing win. Good for them. They deserved it.They were the smarter team.

    McLellan and Woodcroft put Korpikoski and Letestu on the PP.

    I don’t think McLellan and Woodcroft are as SMRT as originally thought.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Fair weather fans got off the bus a long long time ago.

    Agreed. Hopefully we are beyond calling people apologists and implying they are stupid based only on being an Oilers fan.

  40. GCW_69 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: What a ridiculous comment.

    We’ve had a brief glimpse of sunshine, like one of those weeks in February where it’s +15, but otherwise absolute garbage weather for the last.. 15 years or so?I’m 32, third kid on the way, several university degrees and multiple career milestones behind me, and I was basically a teenager the last time the team was consistently good.

    Fair weather fans got off the bus a long long time ago.

    Well said, sir!

  41. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69:
    ” the Oilers won the possession battle…”

    Some might say instead “the Oilers won the score effects battle…”which is a sure way to lose the war.

    No. The Oilers were in fine shape when the first goal went in, and through the game.

  42. Kmart99 says:

    Woodguy,

    Thaf Davidson has a GF% above 50% in this team is unreal. Especially when you consider the minutes he was playing. Man.

  43. frjohnk says:

    Connor McDavid with Taylor Hall on the ice
    2.65 points per 60 minutes.
    56.7% CF

    If one steps back and asks, what would happen if a top 3 offensive left winger and a going to be best player in the game find some good chemistry.

    They have only played 68 minutes together, Id give it more time, while there have been definite flashes of brilliance from these two, there has been some hesitation on plays and turnovers.

    I bet once they get comfortable and learn each others tendencies, they will be dynamite together.

  44. godot10 says:

    Max Powers:
    I was wondering this before klefbom got injured and the hamonic rumours were out there in full force… Wouldn’t Klefbom for Hamonic straight up be a good trade for the oil? I mean what’s the ceiling for Oscar? Wouldn’t it be a top pairing defenseman on a playoff team? Isn’t that what Hamonic is already?

    Even if Oscar turned out to be better wouldn’t you still be happy with a top pairing defenseman? It’s not like its potential for potential like last summers big trade.

    I guess the real question is would that trade happen or am I being unrealistic?

    Klefbom is already better than Hamonic and tied up on a cap friendly contract for twice as long, for eight years vs. four. Hamonic, apart from his rookie season, has been injured every year also.

    You aren’t improving swapping a better defensemen for a worse defensemen.

  45. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    Connor McDavid with Taylor Hall on the ice
    2.65 points per 60 minutes.
    56.7% CF

    If one steps back and asks, what would happen if a top 3 offensive left winger and a going to be best player in the game find some good chemistry.

    They have only played 68 minutes together, Id give it more time, while there have been definite flashes of brilliance from these two, there has been some hesitation on plays and turnovers.

    I bet once they get comfortable and learn each others tendencies, they will be dynamite together.

    I agree. In a lost season, the last 10 games can be helpful in informing the future.

  46. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Here are the Oiler Forwards sorted by Goals For% – Basically the percentage of the goals the Oilers score when that player is on the ice: (this season only)

    Patrick.Maroon66.67
    Leon.Draisaitl55.26
    Taylor.Hall54.74
    Teddy.Purcell49.28
    Matt.Hendricks47.83
    Connor.McDavid47.27
    Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins46.03
    Benoit.Pouliot44.78
    ————————————————————-
    Jordan.Eberle42.47
    Nail.Yakupov42.22
    Jujhar.Khaira41.67
    Iiro.Pakarinen34.78
    Lauri.Korpikoski33.33
    Zack.Kassian31.58
    Anton.Lander29.63
    Luke.Gazdic28.57
    Mark.Letestu28.26
    Anton.Slepyshev22.22
    Rob.Klinkhammer12.5
    Adam.Cracknell0

    Its interesting that if we put a cut line in at 44% it closely reflects LT’s list.

    Generally below 45% is not good and below 40% is below replacement.

    Lots of below replacement players on the Oilers, but we don’t know how much of that is due to Dmen.

    The new hires’ numbers are small samples so stuff like Cracknell being 0 and Maroon being an ungodly 67% show up.

    Here are the Dmen:

    Jordan.Oesterle66.67
    Adam.Clendening58.33
    Brandon.Davidson52.94
    Eric.Gryba47.27
    Oscar.Klefbom46.15
    Adam.Pardy44.44
    ——————————————–
    Andrej.Sekera43.33
    Mark.Fayne43.28
    Darnell.Nurse41.18
    Griffin.Reinhart40
    Justin.Schultz38.98
    Brad.Hunt33.33
    Nikita.Nikitin28.57
    Andrew.Ference25

    Again, the 44% line seems to work.

    Sekera falls just below that but in defence of the man here are his GF/60 and GA/60 rates with and without Nurse:

    Sekera with Nurse:

    GF/60 1.76
    GA/60 2.87
    Net -1.11/60

    Sekera without Nurse:
    GF/60 2.02
    GA/60 2.32
    Net -0.3/60

    Safe to say when not saddled with the rookie, Sekera’s GF numbers were ok, especially if you consider that most of its with Fayne.

    Summary:

    Keep the wheat, clean out the chaff.

    Godspeed Peter.

    Make sure you listen to Tyler as well.

    Uh oh.

    Woodguy drinking with Ricki last night.

  47. rickithebear says:

    Klefbom was 1st pairing in :
    comp
    HSCA
    EVP/60
    PKGA
    PPP/60 and PPGF

    That vanted #1 D that has never existed in a decade until Klefbom!

    What the fuck is better than that?

  48. godot10 says:

    stush18: I think he gets by with his natural talent, speed, and strength. He has sense, but not elite like party Kane for example. I think this is why he excels at 5 on 5 play, because he can beat defenders 1×1. When the powerplay comes around though, he doesn’t need to find space.

    Still first line winger material for sure, and I think we need more players that can push the pace at even strength. But I think if he stays on the powerplay he’s going to need to move to the front of the net.

    Taylor Hall was extremely effective on Krueger’s and Nelson’s top quartile power plays. Not so much on the dementor’s or #JayBoyWonderCroft’s power play.

    Ditto for Nail Yakupov.

    Ditto for Nugent-Hopkins.

    The problem with the power play is #JayBoyWonderCroft, who is infatuated with his own brilliant schemes, rather than focusing on deploying the talent effectively.

  49. jake70 says:

    This lack of goal scoring gets me thinking about what I call the “Bisaillon” Death March , the 19 games post trade deadline day in 2007.

    -# Goals scored last 19 games in 2007 — 24 (Oilers shut out 6 (six!) times in 19 games)
    -#Goals scored this season last 19 games — 35 (Oilers shut out twice in this span)

    A few more this year but man it feels like 2007 some nights lately.

  50. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    What’s a good Penguins blog or Twitter follow. Wondering how they feel about Schultz so far.

  51. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: What a ridiculous comment.

    We’ve had a brief glimpse of sunshine, like one of those weeks in February where it’s +15, but otherwise absolute garbage weather for the last.. 15 years or so?I’m 32, third kid on the way, several university degrees and multiple career milestones behind me, and I was basically a teenager the last time the team was consistently good.

    Fair weather fans got off the bus a long long time ago.

    Oh, cry off and dry your eyes on your degrees. You have a lot going for you, and this is the comment that upsets you so much you have to tell me how awesome you are? Share your life story as an inspiration, which it is, not to beat someone over the head over a light-hearted comment on a hockey blog.

    GCW_69: Well said, sir!

    Who flushed your toilet?

  52. leadfarmer says:

    Woogie63:
    Sail On

    MacT, Howson and KLowe

    Katz does not fire people, especially his friends. Maybe Sail on to a different desk in the org.

  53. Richard S.S. says:

    I think Cam Talbot and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should trade places. on Lowetide’s list. It’s been such an extremely long time since the Oilers have had this good a Goalie, that to even suggest Talbot’s tradable is counterproductive and scary. Nugent-Hopkins is an exceptional talent, but he’s also the shortest of Lowetide’s five. Depending what the offer is, he’s tradable.

  54. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great write-up LT. I’ve been fiddling around with these lists in the post section for awhile.

    – From your list:
    1)Eberle = top-4 RHD return
    2) 1st rounder: if you found a rebuilding team you should be able to get an even more impactful D than with the Eberle trade. or a really good top-6 Chia type forward
    3) Yak/Fayne/Griff/Korpe: meh… just shuffling stuff around in terms of returns. Maybe Yak + Fayne + 2nd gets you another piece?

    The additional cash from Mikitin Ferrence, minus new salaries: you have $4MM+ net to get another difference maker.

    – They should use Eberle, the 1st rounder and cash, for 3 difference makers.

    – I’d keep Yak untill the deadline, pump his tires, and package him up for the best pending UFA D available (Burns)

    – I’d bet a lot that at least two from your no-trade list/not likely to be traded list, also get traded before next trade dealine in 2017.

    F@ck is this team so far away. By far, the strongest correlation to estimate results year over year, is how many points the team got the previous year. But I do believe in Chia.

  55. JDï™ says:

    This salt is making me thirsty!

  56. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Norman Greenbaum,

    The point of the comment was to illustrate how much of my life has gone by over that span, not to brag about my accomplishments. I could have talked about the death of my father and other negative milestones to illustrate the same point, but that seemed unecessarily bleak. I’m sorry you interpreted it that way.

  57. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    JDï™,

    Thank you sir.

  58. flyfish1168 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Todd McLellan’s post game quotes included:

    -I would tell you the smarter team won the game, hands down

    -they walked away with a 4 nothing win. Good for them. They deserved it.They were the smarter team.

    McLellan and Woodcroft put Korpikoski and Letestu on the PP.

    I don’t think McLellan and Woodcroft are as SMRT as originally thought.

    Stubborn he is.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Sallinen an Oiler. I will have something up this afternoon.

    https://www.nhl.com/player/jere-sallinen-8475302

  60. frjohnk says:

    FRJOHNK: Ran through some numbers for Yak and his centers since 2013.

    These are the centers on the ice when Yak got a point, minutes and points/60 ( 5 on 5)

    Center__Min__P/60
    Gagner__596__2.11
    Roy_____534__1.69
    Nuge____384__0.78
    Letestu__211__0.28
    Draisaitl_200___0.30
    McDavid_198__2.42
    Lander__172___0.70
    Horcoff__118__4.58

    Even though he has not played with the Oilers for 2 years, Gagner is still Yak’s number 1 center in terms of ice time and Yak had a pretty good points/60 number with him. And they also had good chemistry on the PP with Gagner being a right handed shooter who could distribute the puck well for Yak to use him one timer. I am a firm believer Yak needs a right handed player on the PP to distribute the puck to him. Sorry Letestu fans, Gagner has been the best right handed center Yak has played with AINEC.

    Yak had good chemistry with Roy. They did look good in the Ozone together but there was also some running around in the Dzone as well. They had a CF% together of 46%.

    Yak has not had much success with Nuge, Letestu, Lander and Draisaitl.

    Yak with McDavid put up some really good numbers. But at 198 mins together, it is not a big sample.

    Yak’ 4.58 P/60 with Horcoff is not a mistake. Yak was hot with Horcoff. HOT! Yak with Horcoff had a shooting percentage 47%!!!. Yaks shooting percentage with Horcoff was better than their CF% together which was 39%!!!! Crazy!!!

    Nuge and Draisaitl are the two offensive centers where Yak did not produce much with but if we look at the minutes Yak has played with offensive centers Gagner, Roy and McDavid, ( he has played with those 3 centers 45% of his 5 on 5 time since 2013) we see that Yak has a P/60 of 1.98.

    Yak is not a river pusher, he will not cover the bet of being a number 1 pick, but if plays with an offensive center, we should not be surprised to see him put up points at a top 6 forward rate.

    And I would also stress that if a PP went through a right handed shot like Giroux on the left half wall with Yak as a shooter on the right side, Yak would find even more success. Well, as long as he hit the net

    I wrote that about Yak yesterday. His 1.98 points per 60 min with Gagner, McDavid and Roy as his center would put him as a 1st line scoring winger. And that is not a small sample size as it is 45% of his 5 on 5 time since 2013.

    And we should also remember this number has been put up with a defense that has been nowhere near average offensively and defensively.

    At $2.5M, Yak has more value as an Oiler than he would fetch in a trade. Next year, the team will be more balanced and if Yak is still here, he could play a part of the turn North.

    If Yak is traded, what do we get? a second round pick? a reclamation project? If Yak is traded, many will be upset at the return.

  61. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk,

    “His 1.98 points per 60 min with Gagner, McDavid and Roy”

    – How does that compare with Ebs #’s with the same C’s for instance?

    – Throw in his time with Horcoff its even better….

  62. fifthcartel says:

    I remember Rishuag saying how the Oilers want a cheaper bottom-six, maybe Sallinen plays into that?

  63. stush18 says:

    godot10: Taylor Hall was extremely effective on Krueger’s and Nelson’s top quartile power plays. Not so much on the dementor’s or #JayBoyWonderCroft’s power play.

    Ditto for Nail Yakupov.

    Ditto for Nugent-Hopkins.

    The problem with the power play is #JayBoyWonderCroft, who is infatuated with his own brilliant schemes, rather than focusing on deploying the talent effectively.

    I actually think nelsons powerplay was running at a very high rate until
    Taylor hall returned from injury.

    The oilers need someone with a shot from the point.

    How else would you run the powerplay? I’m curious. Because I would put nuge and mcdavid at the half walls, with ebs across.

    Nail worked when there was a right handed shot (gagner) to run the powerplay through, and to hit yak.

  64. Oil2Oilers says:

    My ideal summer;

    Eberle + Fayne for Harmonic + Anders Lee

    Sign Jason Demers

    Draft a Finish Giant

  65. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy:
    Here are the Oiler Forwards sorted by Goals For% – Basically the percentage of the goals the Oilers score when that player is on the ice: (this season only)

    Patrick.Maroon66.67
    Leon.Draisaitl55.26
    Taylor.Hall54.74
    Teddy.Purcell49.28
    Matt.Hendricks47.83
    Connor.McDavid47.27
    Ryan.Nugent-Hopkins46.03
    Benoit.Pouliot44.78
    ————————————————————-
    Jordan.Eberle42.47
    Nail.Yakupov42.22
    Jujhar.Khaira41.67
    Iiro.Pakarinen34.78
    Lauri.Korpikoski33.33
    Zack.Kassian31.58
    Anton.Lander29.63
    Luke.Gazdic28.57
    Mark.Letestu28.26
    Anton.Slepyshev22.22
    Rob.Klinkhammer12.5
    Adam.Cracknell0

    Its interesting that if we put a cut line in at 44% it closely reflects LT’s list.

    Generally below 45% is not good and below 40% is below replacement.

    Lots of below replacement players on the Oilers, but we don’t know how much of that is due to Dmen.

    The new hires’ numbers are small samples so stuff like Cracknell being 0 and Maroon being an ungodly 67% show up.

    Here are the Dmen:

    Jordan.Oesterle66.67
    Adam.Clendening58.33
    Brandon.Davidson52.94
    Eric.Gryba47.27
    Oscar.Klefbom46.15
    Adam.Pardy44.44
    ——————————————–
    Andrej.Sekera43.33
    Mark.Fayne43.28
    Darnell.Nurse41.18
    Griffin.Reinhart40
    Justin.Schultz38.98
    Brad.Hunt33.33
    Nikita.Nikitin28.57
    Andrew.Ference25

    Again, the 44% line seems to work.

    Sekera falls just below that but in defence of the man here are his GF/60 and GA/60 rates with and without Nurse:

    Sekera with Nurse:

    GF/60 1.76
    GA/60 2.87
    Net -1.11/60

    Sekera without Nurse:
    GF/60 2.02
    GA/60 2.32
    Net -0.3/60

    Safe to say when not saddled with the rookie, Sekera’s GF numbers were ok, especially if you consider that most of its with Fayne.

    Summary:
    Keep the wheat, clean out the chaff.
    Godspeed Peter.
    Make sure you listen to Tyler as well.

    Interesting numbers here W.G.

    Davidson looks better and better using just about every metric (especially G Money’s charts), but considering who he’s played with (everyone, pretty much) and both the left and right side, he’s…well… good at hockey.

    Most interesting numbers to me? These:
    Jordan.Eberle 42.47
    Nail.Yakupov 42.22

    For all of the Ebs vs. Yak talk and the lack of Yak production when not playing with skill, this metric, along with what frjohnk wrote yesterday and reminded us again today show there’s a player here, almost hidden in plain sight.

    Last night’s game was not great and I have to admit I only half-watched most of it, but the few times I saw Nail on this ice he was doing good things, forechecking, creating opportunities and generally in decent to good spots to generate scoring chances. His rush in the final moments of the game was probably the most exciting individual moment of the game.

    I for one will be very upset by the return of the inevitable Yak trade this summer.
    (And for anyone who decides to drop me in the “why do you hate Eberle? camp, I’ll be very upset about that trade, too, but for different reasons).

  66. kooler says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    My ideal summer;

    Eberle + Fayne for Harmonic + Anders Lee

    Sign Jason Demers

    Draft a Finish Giant

    How about all that and the Oilers win the draft…..again.
    Arizona finishes second or third last and trade OEL and pick for Mathews.

  67. stush18 says:

    stush18: I actually think nelsons powerplay was running at a very high rate until
    Taylor hall returned from injury.

    The oilers need someone with a shot from the point.

    How else would you run the powerplay? I’m curious. Because I would put nuge and mcdavid at the half walls, with ebs across.

    Nail worked when there was a right handed shot (gagner) to run the powerplay through, and to hit yak.

    The only other way I think you could run the powerplay would be

    [net] Nuge/mcdavid

    Ebs. Hall/pouliot/maroon/kass Yak

    Sekera/klef

    Similar to what Washington runs. Nuge/mcdavid finds the high man in the slot, or cross ice to ebs, who then shoots, or delays for a one timer to klef or yak.

  68. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Uh oh.

    Woodguy drinking with Ricki last night.

    Really?

    What was Bear-ish about my post?

  69. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    The problem with the power play is #JayBoyWonderCroft, who is infatuated with his own brilliant schemes, rather than focusing on deploying the talent effectively.

    You really need to stop assuming motivations for people you’ve never had a conversation with.

  70. Big Dan says:

    Take heart oiler fans. The team is evolving quickly. Look at cracknell’s hilarious breakaway. Letestu standing up to Murphy. Maroon and kassian blasting guys to the moon. Pouliot has an element of craziness too.

    We have a stud goalie, a good coach, a good gm, a superstar, and two young d who emerged (Davidson, klefbom). The team competes every night.

    We are almost there! Eberle needs to go. Maybe he, yak, and fayne go in a package to mtl for petry, Eller, plus.

    I’m losing hope on hamonic but I am sure chiarelli will get a vatanen type.

    My advice- stop sulking about letestu playing above his pay grade because of injuries. Next year he will be a 4th liner. Korpse will be in Bakersfield. Who will we have to complain about then? The oilers will make the playoffs next year. Book it.

  71. böök¡je says:

    Woodguy:
    godot10,

    The problem with the power play is #JayBoyWonderCroft, who is infatuated with his own brilliant schemes, rather than focusing on deploying the talent effectively.

    You really need to stop assuming motivations for people you’ve never had a conversation with.

    You only say that because you have always wanted a purple tricycle and you think that by challenging people’s assumptions on the internet that you are going to get one!

  72. JDï™ says:

    Hey – this Sallinen guy isn’t too bad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doPv_GxoIO8

  73. leadfarmer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    What’s a good Penguins blog or Twitter follow. Wondering how they feel about Schultz so far.

    This is a good penguin blog
    http://penguins.neaq.org/

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Schultz with some good play today. Has 2 assists. Muffin shot is a lot more effective when guys actually go to the net and deflect the shot.

  75. sliderule says:

    Kmart99:
    The Oilers are the StephCurry of Lottery wins and I don’t care if they win 3 more.

    If you want the Oilers to stop winning the lottery, then stop beating us at hockey!

    What happens first?
    McDavid leads the league in scoring, or the Oil make the playoffs?
    Oilers win the draft lottery, or the Oil make the playoffs?

    Remember when Hall, Ebs, Schultz, and Nuge were 4 of the top 6 scorers in the AHL and the Barons WEREN’T in a playoff spot?There’s a lesson there, I swear it.

    Truth

  76. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    godot10,

    The problem with the power play is #JayBoyWonderCroft, who is infatuated with his own brilliant schemes, rather than focusing on deploying the talent effectively.

    You really need to stop assuming motivations for people you’ve never had a conversation with.

    In fairness, that is going to cut into a lot of what we do here. 🙂

  77. stevezie says:

    leadfarmer,

    Well kid, you threw one by me. Savour the flavour, cause it sure as hell won’t happen again.

    Or it may, I dunno.

  78. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL:
    frjohnk,

    “His 1.98 points per 60 min with Gagner, McDavid and Roy”

    – How does that compare with Ebs #’s with the same C’s for instance?

    – Throw in his time with Horcoff its even better….

    I’ll do the numbers later.

    But first glance when leaving RNH out , EBERLE has similar numbers as Yak with same centers.

    But it is small sample with EBERLE and center other than RNH.

    When you put EBERLE and RNH vs Yak and RNH it’s not much of contest as EBERLE and RNH have good numbers while Yak and RNH don’t.

  79. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: In fairness, that is going to cut into a lot of what we do here.

    Ha!

    I would say we evaluate results and decisions more than try to figure out motivations.

    For motivation for decisions, we usually just default that its because “X hates Y”, like you hating Smid and MacT hating good defencemen.

  80. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: I’ll do the numbers later.

    But first glance when leaving RNH out , EBERLE has similar numbers as Yak with same centers.

    But it is small sample with EBERLE and center other than RNH.

    When you put EBERLE and RNH vs Yak and RNH it’s not much of contest as EBERLE and RNH have good numbers while Yak and RNH don’t.

    I’ve always contended that difference has a lot to due with QC.

    Yak has not been able to handle top line QC in his career and when with RNH he’s seen the best and his game suffers.

    I don’t think Eberle is a good tough minute player, but he handles it better than Yak imo.

  81. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Ha!

    I would say we evaluate results and decisions more than try to figure out motivations.

    For motivation for decisions, we usually just default that its because “X hates Y”, like you hating Smid and MacT hating good defencemen.

    Why does Nuge hate Yak?

  82. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I’ve always contended that difference has a lot to due with QC.

    Yak has not been able to handle top line QC in his career and when with RNH he’s seen the best and his game suffers.

    I don’t think Eberle is a good tough minute player, but he handles it better than Yak imo.

    Yup.

  83. adamh1102 says:

    The lack of goal scoring the last several years worries me. I imagine fixing the D helps this but is that all it is? Is there something missing in the forward group as well?

  84. leadfarmer says:

    stevezie:
    leadfarmer,

    Well kid, you threw one by me. Savour the flavour, cause it sure as hell won’t happen again.

    Or it may, I dunno.

    Well it is a good blog at least 🙂

  85. rickithebear says:

    This year:
    Our enters are best with:

    RNH w/
    Draisatl 2.97 EVP/60 +2.96GD/60
    Khaira 3.02 EVP/60 +2.02 GD/60
    Hendricks 1.19 EVp/60 +1.18 GD/60
    Hall 1.54EVP/60 +0.86 GD/60
    ————————————-
    Ederle -0.60 GD/60
    Pouliot -0.92 GD/60
    Pakarinen -0.94 GD/60
    Korpikoski -2.22 GD/60
    Purcell -2.66 GD/60
    Yakupov -2.77 GD/60
    Klinkhammer -5.00 GD/60

    Draisatl:
    Kassian 2.35 EVP/60 +1.57 GD/60
    Pouliot 1.35 EVP/60 +1.35 GD/60
    Hall 2.53 EVP/60 +0.48 GD/60
    Purcell 2.71 EVp/60 +0.48 GD/60
    Eberle -1.46 GD/60

    Mcdcvid:
    Hall 2.64 EVP/60 +0.89 GD/60
    Pouliot 3.36 EVP/60 +0.42 GD/60
    Yakupov 3.32 EVp/60 +0.30 GD/60
    Eberle 3.69 EVP/60 even GD/60

  86. Johnny skid says:

    Woodguy: I don’t think Eberle is a good tough minute player, but he handles it better than Yak imo.

    the three years difference in age should explain some of that should it not? i get the feeling that some think yak and eberle are the same age.

  87. flyfish1168 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Why does Nuge hate Yak?

    I thought they didn’t look bad last evening. I believe prior to this they didn’t look good was due to coach and RNH was still new and learning the position with another new coach year after year

  88. Stelio Kontos says:

    I don’t see why sekera would be on the no trade list. He is a 2-3 defensemen. If you could flip him for a righty who is roughly equal, ala petry, I think you are ahead. I also think NYI would prefer him to eberle, as he replaces what they have better. Klefbom may be better than sekera already and is cheaper. Davidson looks capable of top 4. Nurse should be able to handle the third pair or higher next year (dmen seem to evolve overnight). Reinhart would be waiting for injuries.

    I wouldn’t be uncomfortable with

    Klefbom Hamonic
    Davidson Demers
    Nurse Fayne
    Gryba/Pardy/whoever
    Reinhart

    I think moving sekera does less damage than moving eberle, if you are looking for a RD. Trading eberle gives you 0 top six RW. Unless you are drafting laine, and have Okposo signed, RW will become a huge problem on the team. You could also pray that Yak miraculously recovers. Maroon or Kassian can play with skill, but they aren’t top six guys unless you are spreading out the offence. You are better off dealing Hall, since at least you have pouliot as another top six LW. (not advocating a hall trade).

  89. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Why does Nuge hate Yak?

    Yak is Mattingly.

  90. Stelio Kontos says:

    adamh1102:
    The lack of goal scoring the last several years worries me. I imagine fixing the D helps this but is that all it is? Is there something missing in the forward group as well?

    Bottom six players who don’t burn everything they touch.

  91. flyfish1168 says:

    Johnny skid: the three years difference in age should explain some of that should it not? i get the feeling that some think yak and eberle are the same age.

    good point. plus the egg$hit effect on Yak was traumatizing to boot

  92. Lowetide says:

    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack 6m6 minutes ago

    Maroon on a line with McDavid & Eberle today at practice. Hendricks back on ice.

  93. russ99 says:

    Kind of hard to take McLellan’s criticism last night.

    Won possession and shots, and he complains about lack of off man breaks, when playing his system limits specifically that.

    Odd.

    McDavid, Talbot, Nurse and Hall are my no trade group, but even Hall could be moved for the right price.

    I’d put Davidson above Klefbom right now, quality D-zone play at a good cap number, Klefbom isn’t as good in our zone at an increasing cap number despite the fancys.

  94. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    A borderline hall-of-famer?

  95. rickithebear says:

    adamh1102:
    The lack of goal scoring the last several years worries me. I imagine fixing the D helps this but is that all it is? Is there something missing in the forward group as well?

    Look at Shooting %
    you know the measure of goal scoring!

    People just questioned halls intelligence.
    But he has a 8.7% Shooting % last 2 years
    He averages 3.33 Shots per game.
    wonder what % of pocession is required for a single goal.

    Mcdcvid 17.9%
    Draisatl 14.9%
    Eberle 14.6%
    Maroon 13.3%
    Pouliot 12.8%
    Korpikoski 11.0%
    Kassian 10.7%
    RNH 9.0%
    Hall 8.6%
    Letestu 7.5%
    Pakarinen 6.6%
    Yakupov 5.6%

  96. Walter Sobchak says:

    Woodguy:
    godot10,

    The problem with the power play is #JayBoyWonderCroft, who is infatuated with his own brilliant schemes, rather than focusing on deploying the talent effectively.

    Is there something with the deployment though?

    Nelson minus McDavid was running around 25ish % PP at home and 20ish on the road?

    Jesus, I think even Eakins was around 19ish no?

    I think it has something to do with it

  97. Edmonton Oilers: Who's Safe, and Who's Kicked Off the Island says:

    […] is a post that I’ve been thinking of all week long and Lowetide beat me to the punch (which is still an awesome read) of the list of moving […]

  98. Gordies Elbow says:

    Fayne played 14:05 last night, 1:15 on the PK, and ended -2. Nikitin played 15:46, and Clendenning played 16:01. Reinhart played more than 20 minutes.

    Fayne is trending towards a buyout or retained salary transaction.

  99. judgedrude says:

    Was the title supposed to say “The Sallinen List”?

  100. digger50 says:

    Big Dan,

    Put me down as an optimist as well Dan, I see good things. I see a team culture building and might have turned if not for………..fill in the blanks here.

    I see loads of talent in the top nine

    I see loads of quality options for fourth line.

    I see a defence full of potential with no identity yet.

    I see a GM looking through everything in the cupboard to see what he’s got. Is like to see the coach do the same for last ten games.

    Top none needs tinkering, at least talent is there, now it’s about making it better, looking for better options, better fit, cap management….. Wonder what Ladd would look like in an Oilers jersey?

    Take the draft pick. This will be last time for a long time this team will pick in top five. Take advantage now.

    Defence, defence, what do we truly need? How soon can we count on our developing talent? Previous attempts to fix defence have been disaster. I don’t have the answer but it does appear that this GM moves pieces cautiously and I like that. Is there lots of cap space coming available? I think there is more of Chia’s housekeeping to do and a free agent signing before any pieces are moved.

    I believe Pilers have more pieces than LA or Chicago when they turned north on thier rebuild. The risk is launching too soon and only reaching mediocrity.

    Lots of room for optimism.

  101. maxwell_mischief says:

    Does Jokerit play on the Finnish hybrid sized rink home games? Or International as they would in the K?

  102. Zed says:

    Agreed. It’s boring, clutching, grabbing, interfereing, talent-sucking, anti-creativity hockey. Cheer for the Chicago model or we are doomed to be bored of this sport…
    Is that too much?

    The Trade Guy:
    My decision to never watch Pacific division Cali and Arizona games continues to be rewarded.

  103. jonrmcleod says:

    Official confirmation:

    Edmonton Oilers @EdmontonOilers
    The #Oilers have signed fwd Jere Sallinen to a one-year ELC.

  104. Zed says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting interview last night after the game. HNIC panel on Yak. Teams interested in Yak and feel the can unlock Yak and Oilers is unwilling to just give him away.

    Does this sound like the Gagner story? The Oilers can grind Yak down and then unload him after his value is completely diminished. I wonder what it would have been like had Sam Gagner been developed from the age of 18 in a proper structure, not the Oilers free for all, revolving coach, gong show.

  105. Zed says:

    Norman Greenbaum: Fair weather fan.Got it.

    10 years of watching this does not a “fair-weather fan” make. I think your comment is a bit harsh, and under-appreciates how hard it is watching at team that, as LT says, makes decisions based on things other than winning. I really appreciate your comments, but devaluing a fan for having difficulty putting up with 10 years of terrible terrible management is not fair.

  106. Ribs says:

    Lowetide: Yak is Mattingly.

    Everyone hates Yak! You’ve heard of team Cancers before, well, Yakupov is the Oilers team Leper! I hear he has two empty stalls beside him in the dressing room! He has his own water bottle with crossbones imprinted on it! They make him go home to shower after the games!

    Seriously, though, what an odd player to watch play hockey. I can see why so many coaches have’t figured him out yet. I kinda wish he was speedier so that they could just give him the puck and watch him wheel, ala Sergei Samsonov. What do you do with this guy?

  107. Cult of Hockey: Who is Jere Sallinen and why did Edmonton Oilers just sign him? | Edmonton Journal says:

    […] before Allan “Lowetide” Mitchell brought up the Finn’s name as an “confirmed” signing (though only by one source) in his brilliant blog this morning. Mitchell cited the resource […]

  108. RJ2016 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    What’s a good Penguins blog or Twitter follow. Wondering how they feel about Schultz so far.

    Pensburgh is another one.

    They’ve been very happy with him playing third pairing minutes.

  109. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL:
    frjohnk,

    “His 1.98 points per 60 min with Gagner, McDavid and Roy”

    – How does that compare with Ebs #’s with the same C’s for instance?

    Left side is how many minutes EBERLE played with this player and EBERLE’s P/60 with said player on ice. Right side is how many minutes Yakupov played with this player and Yakupov’s P/60 with said player on ice. This is since 2012 and 5 on 5 strength.

    Player___Min__P/60_Player__Min__P/60
    EBERLE_3947_1.96_Yak____2943_1.45

    EBERLE with_______Yak with
    Centers
    RNH ___2516__2.16_RNH___384__0.78
    Gagner__347__2.07_Gagner_596__2.11
    McDavid_221__2.98_McDavid198__2.42
    Draisaitl_209__0.86_Draisaitl_200__0.3
    Lander__141__0.85_Lander__172__0.7
    Gordon__106__0.56_Gordon__71___0
    Roy_____30___0___Roy____534__1.69
    Letestu___37__0___Letestu__211__0.28
    Horcoff___13__4.16_Horcoff__118__4.58

    When comparing centers, EBERLE produces better with most than Yak or pretty much even. When Yak was with Gagner, McDavid and Roy, they were not usually facing the toughs. When Yak was with RNH, they were. EBERLE has played more minutes facing the toughs. * Anything under 100 minutes I wouldn’t even compare but I just put the numbers out there to see.

    Here are the top 4 D man for TOI for both players
    EBERLE with_______Yak with
    Player___Min__P/60_Player__Min__P/60
    Schultz__1458_2.47_Schultz__878__1.37
    Petry____936_1.67__Petry___707__1.70
    Ference__659_1.91_Ference_545__1.43
    Klefbom__621_2.32_Fayne___449__1.60

    The crazy thing is that EBERLE and Yak have not played much together ( 405 minutes in 4 years) But both have as their top D men in TOI are in order Schultz, Petry and Ference. Wow! Our two best RWer’s and that is the best 3 Dmen that management could put on the ice. If I put the complete list of Dmen on here, everybody would cry!
    *While EBERLE produced well with Schutlz on the ice, I think its more of Schultz riding the coat tails of RNH, Hall and EBERLE than Schultz being a big driver of offense from the back end.

    Here are the top 3 LWers for each player in TOI

    EBERLE with_______Yak with
    Player___Min__P/60_Player__Min__P/60
    Hall____1535__2.11__Hall___211__3.13
    Pouliot___863__2.29_Pouliot_376___2.23
    Perron___273__1.32_Perron_285___2.32

    Both do well when paired with an offensive center AND an offensive winger on the left side except for when Yak played with Nuge and when both played with Draisaitl. But most of Yak and EBERLE’s minutes with Draisaitl were from last year when Draisaitl was not ready for the NHL.

    While EBERLE has had better linemates, he has also faced tougher competition and overall has produced better. But the one thing in common for these two players: the lack of playing time with quality Dmen. Petry is a good number 3 Dman. Schultz and Ference? Nope. And these 3 have played the most with EBERLE and Yak. Like I said before, if I put the complete list of Dmen that have played for the Oilers in the last half decade, you would cry or laugh or cry and laugh!

    The questions Id liked answered is this.

    How good would EBERLE be if he played on a balanced team which had 4 top 4 Dmen for a whole season? Or gasp, a top pairing Dman in the mix? EBERLE has never played with a top pairing D man as an Oiler.

    Same questions apply with Yak.

    When offensive players with some defensive holes in their game such as EBERLE and Yak play the majority of the time with 3rd pairing/AHL Dmen, their warts are magnified.

    -On a balanced team, EBERLE would be an elite RWer scorer putting up numbers that could be put him in the top 5 in any given year.

    -On a balanced team, Yak would be a very good scoring option on the 2nd line and could possibly be a 1st line winger. His 5 on 5 scoring when paired with McDavid, Gagner and Roy collectively is 1.98 points/60 since 2012. ( That’s 1st line scoring) He has had those guys as his center 45% of the time. Put 2 top 4 Dman on the back end to help cover Yak and watch his numbers climb.

    In the end, I think both could be gone this summer but I think trading Yak would be a bigger mistake, not because I believe he is better than EBERLE, cause I don’t, I think it would be a mistake because while EBERLE would probably fetch a top 3 Dman, Yak’s return will leave some people gasping. And not in a good way.

  110. Woodguy says:

    *SPAM*

    New post at Because Oilers:
    “In Search Of……Right Handed Dmen for the Oilers”

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    *END SPAM*

  111. digger50 says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Perhaps if Hall had a team around him looking back a couple of years, he would not have to play such a game as to push the river himself. It’s a catch 22

  112. Bills to Pay says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    Good list I would only swap Hall with Nurse. While he is still young, trading away a 6’4, 21 yr old dman who hits, stands up for his teammates and can skate faster backwards than most guys forward is the best way to set your franchise back years. All he needs is time to develop and mature. Guys with his size/speed combo don’t grow on trees. If you play GM for a day knowing what you know about Chia and how much they’ve overplayed Nurse i’d say almost definitively they wont even consider trading him.

    As for Hall, I would say while it’s unlikely he is moved I could see Chia moving for the right price. He is so frustrating to discuss here on Lowetide because many fans here can’t take off their bias glasses and look at his game objectively. I compare his game to Phil Kessel ( who ironically Chia traded). Terrific skater, “pushes the river” as people say and gets a lot of points but something is missing there. Not unlike Kessel there are many other facets to his game that is lacking. Fans seem to overlook these because of “his possession numbers” and he “pushes the river” and other fancy stats. Hall carries the puck too long, takes a ton of shots from terrible angles, make SEVERAL bad decisions with the puck EVERY game and attempts so many cross ice low percentage passes he kills rushes. Period. Yes he is a good player based on his offensive stats but when you carry the puck that much and shooting from everywhere you are going to get points. But it’s a team game and you kill momentum with the perimeter game. The Oilers have been this way for too long. We need more bangers who can get the puck deep, cycle the puck and cause fits for the defense. Hall and his “skate miles while he does a drive by shooting” is the opposite of that. It’s not the kind of hockey Tmac or Chia want to play.

    Argue about the comparison all you want but in his first 6 seasons Kessel had four 30+ goal seasons. Hall has none. But, but, but nothing. PPG is only a stat. Did he score 30 goals or not? No. He could drop off a cliff any of those seasons he got hurt just like this year. Hall like Kessel is too much of a one man show and that doesn’t equate to wins. Why can’t he succeed with McDavid? Why can’t he adjust? Toews and Kane can when needed, Malkin-Crosby can when the team needs them. Hall “pushes the river” and is a good possession player because he plays an individual game not a team one.

    Bottom line, its a team game not a one man show. The Bruins traded Phil Kessel who was coming off a 36 goal season and won the Stanley Cup the next year. Chia could easily recognize that and pull the trigger for a top dman and replace Hall with Lucic and feel good about it. While still unlikely, I wouldn’t list Hall as untouchable anymore.

    Without question this is a very accurate synopsis of Taylor Hall. He is very similar to Phil Kessel. I will be very interested to see if Chia can get as good a return for Hall as he did for Kessl.

  113. spity1 says:

    I actually don’t mind Griffin Reinhart as a prospect/player. But I will never get over the price PC paid at the 2015 draft (#16 & 33) to acquire him…especially when you consider he had only played 8 NHL games to that point in his career. Have no clue how Chiarelli has somehow avoided MAJOR criticism for that deal. And I LIKE Reinhart…..I could only imagine how upset I would be if I didn’t like him.

    Yet the player drafted 3 spots ahead of him (Yakupov), who has played 200+ more NHL games than GR and has the 2nd most career goals in his draft class is worth peanuts by comparison? Only further reinforces just how steep of an overpayment by Chiarelli to get Reinhart.

    Every so often I wonder whether Yak and Schultz would have been different players if Krueger had stuck around after the short lockout season. His positive thinking and reinforcement seemed to work wonders for these players.

  114. TsuDhoNimh says:

    I still don’t understand the unfailing love for Hall. Don’t get me wrong, I like Hall, but why does his defensive miscues get missed? Everyone raves about the points he puts up, but what about the points against that he is responsible for? I’ve watched the last 10-11 games focusing on Hall. The amount of times he tries to run like a bull over the blue into 3 or 4 players only to lose the puck and have the play die is amazing. I think he gets a pass over guys like Eberle because he is always skating? Everyone like him because he doesn’t stop hustling, but neither does some chickens when they get their head cut off. I challenge anyone that has the time(I don’t) to count up the plays that Hall is the primary or secondary player responsible for goals for/against. After watching the last 10 games I’m pretty confident that I’ll be shown to be right that Hall gets a pass from everyone but if I’m proven wrong then it will be one of the few times I will happy about it.

  115. TsuDhoNimh says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    Good list I would only swap Hall with Nurse. While he is still young, trading away a 6’4, 21 yr old dman who hits, stands up for his teammates and can skate faster backwards than most guys forward is the best way to set your franchise back years. All he needs is time to develop and mature. Guys with his size/speed combo don’t grow on trees. If you play GM for a day knowing what you know about Chia and how much they’ve overplayed Nurse i’d say almost definitively they wont even consider trading him.

    As for Hall, I would say while it’s unlikely he is moved I could see Chia moving for the right price. He is so frustrating to discuss here on Lowetide because many fans here can’t take off their bias glasses and look at his game objectively. I compare his game to Phil Kessel ( who ironically Chia traded). Terrific skater, “pushes the river” as people say and gets a lot of points but something is missing there. Not unlike Kessel there are many other facets to his game that is lacking. Fans seem to overlook these because of “his possession numbers” and he “pushes the river” and other fancy stats. Hall carries the puck too long, takes a ton of shots from terrible angles, make SEVERAL bad decisions with the puck EVERY game and attempts so many cross ice low percentage passes he kills rushes. Period. Yes he is a good player based on his offensive stats but when you carry the puck that much and shooting from everywhere you are going to get points. But it’s a team game and you kill momentum with the perimeter game. The Oilers have been this way for too long. We need more bangers who can get the puck deep, cycle the puck and cause fits for the defense. Hall and his “skate miles while he does a drive by shooting” is the opposite of that. It’s not the kind of hockey Tmac or Chia want to play.

    Argue about the comparison all you want but in his first 6 seasons Kessel had four 30+ goal seasons. Hall has none. But, but, but nothing. PPG is only a stat. Did he score 30 goals or not? No. He could drop off a cliff any of those seasons he got hurt just like this year. Hall like Kessel is too much of a one man show and that doesn’t equate to wins. Why can’t he succeed with McDavid? Why can’t he adjust? Toews and Kane can when needed, Malkin-Crosby can when the team needs them. Hall “pushes the river” and is a good possession player because he plays an individual game not a team one.

    Bottom line, its a team game not a one man show. The Bruins traded Phil Kessel who was coming off a 36 goal season and won the Stanley Cup the next year. Chia could easily recognize that and pull the trigger for a top dman and replace Hall with Lucic and feel good about it. While still unlikely, I wouldn’t list Hall as untouchable anymore.

    Now that I have seen this post I guess mine is redundant. Basically everything I wanted to say but more succinct.

  116. Seismic Source says:

    Yak needed AHL time. So do a lot of players (That little guy in Tampa). He is on the verge of break out or bust. To give him away is folly at this point. This needs to be a real lesson learned.

  117. Seismic Source says:

    Nurse needs an entire year in the AHl. I also want him to stop fighting so much.

  118. dadoug12 says:

    dustrock:
    McDavid is the only untouchable.After yet another 30th place finish, how could it be otherwise?

    Exadtly, there is only one player, for anyone to suggest taylor hall, hopkins or anybody else as being untouchable, thats being shortsighted. a bottom feeding team that cant climb out of the basement, cannot have so many players on the no trade list, Lowetide, you call hall a winner, well in the NHL, he certainly aint, and the only thing he has driven on this team is the limo to the draft day parties, you media guys need to stop falling in love with these players, they have done nothing but contrubute to another last place season and thats unacceptable. atds wttt i hasis
    Except for conner, everyone else is available if the price is right, and thats the way it has be for a team that is acutallly worse standings wise than last year.

  119. dadoug12 says:

    digger50:
    Big Dan,

    Put me down as an optimist as well Dan, I see good things. I see a team culture building and might have turned if not for………..fill in the blanks here.

    I see loads of talent in the top nine

    I see loads of quality options for fourth line.

    I see a defence full of potential with no identity yet.

    I see a GM looking through everything in the cupboard to see what he’s got. Is like to see the coach do the same for last ten games.

    Top none needs tinkering, at least talent is there, now it’s about making it better, looking for better options, better fit, cap management….. Wonder what Ladd would look like in an Oilers jersey?

    Take the draft pick. This will be last time for a long time this team will pick in top five. Take advantage now.

    Defence, defence, what do we truly need? How soon can we count on our developing talent? Previous attempts to fix defence have been disaster. I don’t have the answer but it does appear that this GM moves pieces cautiously and I like that. Is there lots of cap space coming available? I think there is more of Chia’s housekeeping to do and a free agent signing before any pieces are moved.

    I believe Pilers have more pieces than LA or Chicago when they turned north on thier rebuild. The risk is launching too soon and only reaching mediocrity.

    Lots of room for optimism.

    too bad the standings say otherwise, and thats all that really counts, we have heard this same song and dance the last 3 years, and nothing standings wise has changed. until that happens, the only thing to look forward to are draft day parties.

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