THE POWER AND STRENGTH OF CLARITY

There are important things to observe even in a lost season. As fans, we can see that Laurent Brossoit is not ready, and it is important to separate his struggles from what was a solid game from the rest of the team.

WELL, THAT HAPPENED! YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 4-4-0
  • Oilers after 72 in 2014-15: 20-39-13, 53 points (-73 GD)
  • Oilers after 72 in 2015-16: 27-38-7, 61 points (-41 GD)

The Oilers had some good moments last night, and some encouraging performances. Important to remember that losses are not the same as progress, and that some of the youngsters in the lineup are showing the team something. That has to be front and center for Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan. If you are a fan, and do not wish to go crazy, these small victories should be important too.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Sekera—Fayne continue to perform well, although there was a lot of anger towards Sekera when he couldn’t get the puck through at the end of the game. For me, that is a Hail Mary play and it is wise to look over the entire game. Fayne got an assist, but he also got caught flat-footed on the first Neal goal and was barely ‘also in photo’. Sekera played over 25 minutes, including major time on both special teams.
  • Reinhart—Oesterle had a largely effective game, with some unusual moments thrown in. Reinhart showed his strength (drawing a penalty) and (correctly) dished the puck to Oesterle for transportation. I don’t think a healthy Oilers team employs either man this or next season. Although both were -2, for me that was a lot about the goalie. Reinhart got blamed online for screening Brossoit on the second goal, but for heaven’s sake that cannot go in.
  • Nikitin—Clendening had their difficulties because NN can’t skate and Clendening could fall over in a windstorm—that is not a promising duo. If Nikitin could skate at all, he might have some years left, because he can do some things. Clendening had a golden chance in the offensive zone from a pass by Hall, but it went over his stick. I feel this is the story of Clendening.
  • D who were on the ice against Josi at 5×5: Sekera 7:46; Oesterle 6:51; Nikitin 6:44; Reinhart 6:26; Fayne 6:12; Clendening 5:46.
  • Laurent Brossoit has not looked strong in his two recent outings, and a suitable backup for the NHL team next season is no doubt on the list. No sin here, Edmonton has another year before risking waivers. LB passed his minor league audition, things have not gone well in a small sample size up top. No reason for panic, but a strong reason to add some cover.

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Hall—Draisaitl—Pakarinen grabbed one of the two goals and six shots. Leon was 81 percent on the dot and overall I liked the line. All three men were involved in Pakarinen’s goal, although Leon got the only assist. The man is a passing demon. HDSC: 3
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian had six shots and 10 hits, and even though I am not a big believer in that stat, it does speak to their involvement. At least one goalmouth incident and a fabulous chance by Kassian (with follow from Hendricks) proved very dangerous. That was one of the most effective 5×5 lines Letestu has played on this season—he had four shots, was 45 percent on the dot. Letestu also had his passing sights tuned in last night. Saw him good. HDSC: 2
  • Maroon—McDavid—Eberle lost the possession battle (Josi-Weber faced this trio the most) but scored a spectacular goal on the first shot of the game to get things rolling. I would run this bunch for the rest of the year—five shots on goal, McDavid 50 percent faceoffs. Maroon looks like an effective player from here. HDSC: 3.
  • Korpikoski—Nuge—Yakupov had moments great and small. Five shots on goal, Nuge was 25 percent in the FO circle, and this was the only line that ended up in the ditch 5×5 (minus one). I thought all three men worked hard, LK had his legs going and got in the way (in a good way) of the opposition. Nuge was a forechecking menace (as always) and battled hard, and Yakupov had one of those Tikkanen nights going. He was also effective without the puck until he wasn’t anymore. HDSC: 1.

INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Two: Jordan Eberle, Iiro Pakarinen
  • One: Taylor Hall, Zack Kassian, Mark Letestu, Patrick Maroon, Nail Yakupov

THINGS

  • Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the PK together looks impressive, hopefully I will learn to watch it without insane fear running through me. That is a lot of injury risk to my eye.
  • UND’s Troy Stecher is a college free agent this spring. A RH defender who can run a power play (his NHLE is 23 points), Stecher would be a nice fit for Edmonton despite lack of size (he is 5.10, 190). Stecher is from Richmond, BC—not that far from Burnaby, the hit factory that produced both the Nuge and Joey Laleggia. The big difference between Stecher and Justin Schultz: the kid from UND anticipates well, causes turnovers (the good ones) and has great creativity and passing ability.
  • With names like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle likely in play this summer, the Oilers should be able to add substantial defensive help. If the club can save money on a deal (Eberle for Travis Hamonic would save over $2 million), that may allow them to sign a big name free agent to replace the outgoing forward.
  • Among players who might be available in free agency, the Oilers do have a story to tell. Steven Stamkos, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo, David Backes, Loui Eriksson, Brian Campbell, James Reimer, Frans Nielsen and James Reimer are interesting names available. Jason Demers remains a player of extreme interest, he is worth following leading up to free agency. Will he sign with the Stars before the free-agent window opens? Will the Oilers trade for his rights before that window opens? He appears to be a perfect fit for Edmonton.

mcdavid capture1

  • Cam Cole of the Vancouver Sun has an article up on the NHL discussing a change in draft rules—another Oilers rule designed to block the team from getting another No. 1 overall selection. In one of the great moments in recent NHL history, the large foreheads of the game are going to legislate against a team that has already added myriad assets. When the NHL changed the lottery odds, they effectively made finishing No. 29 and No. 28 more valuable—and the new system further muddies the waters. Edmonton could finish No. 29 and win the lottery, or No. 28 and win it, or they could finish No. 30 and lose the thing. This fact remains: without a lottery, Edmonton’s trips to the top of the table would have been far less damaging to the ulcers of hockey men. In the words of the great movie The Hunt for Red October: You idiot, you killed us!
  • As with most things in life, clarity and a good lawyer or agent probably saves the NHL from itself. Young Auston Matthews seems like a pretty bright fellow, and I am sure there are no flies on his agent. If I am the Matthews camp, the interview with the Oilers leading up to the draft would have a decidedly chilly tone. If I am Matthews, the idea of coming to Edmonton and losing for six years (as has Taylor Hall) has no appeal, and Connor McDavid’s presence (although he has been injured for half the season) hasn’t made enough of a difference. Why then, Mr. Oilers, would I want to be part of that? Draft me at your own peril. I would tell my son to do that, if he were in that position, because frankly the Oilers have ruined a lot of futures with their ridiculous decisions. Why would I wish that on Auston Matthews? That is the embarrassment for Daryl Katz and the Oilers: They turn what should be the greatest day of someone’s life into a prison sentence. Congratulations, Steve! Now, it is off to Shawshank! It may not be Matthews this season, but sooner or later someone is going to stand up and say no sir, not my son, not that situation.

chiarelli capture draft

I have not met Peter Chiarelli, and won’t during his time as the Oilers GM (The Oilers don’t gift the Lowdown with interviews, as is their right). If I could talk to him, most of the verbal from my side of the table would be ‘the call is coming from inside the house’ and the advice would be for him to find people he trusts to fill the important hockey ops jobs. No matter what titles are given to men like Craig MacTavish and Scott Howson, and no matter how good they are as people, much of the mess that is the 2015-16 lands at their doorstep. Each day that passes without competent assistants advising the GM is a day lost to the competition. Peter Chiarelli owes it to himself, his family and to Oilers fans when it comes to turning around this franchise. I will tell you that it is my belief this summer is going to see major changes in this team. The Oilers are going to deal (I would guess) Jordan Eberle, the first-round selection (down, but not out of the first round), Nail Yakupov, Mark Fayne and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could be gone (I would guess only one of Eberle and Nuge would be going this summer).

On the weekend, Edmonton signed a player who is a depth winger in the KHL. This in and of itself isn’t a major deal, except that it does feel like another Lennart Petrell bet. I have to say that if Peter Chiarelli is thinking about trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, then it is a concern for me. I am concerned about who is advising him, about how much the GM is using a small sample size to make sweeping judgements, and about where this team is going. In spite of the terrible record, there is much that is good about this team. Changing out Jeff Petry for picks was a terrible decision, but dealing the Nuge or Eberle for smaller pieces (a one-for-three) could be a disaster. Are you shopping in Columbus, Mr. Chiarelli? The sphincter tightens.

ahepburn

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10, on the Lowdown, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Oilers lose last night, but the time to look at the bigger picture is now. We will talk about what the summer and who might be on the way out.
  • Mark Randall, Vimy Baseball Director. Baseball in Alberta (and Canada) is producing outstanding talent, we will talk about the game in our province and about development.
  • Russell Baxter, Bleacher Report. NFL free agency is into the period where the good contracts arrive, so teams like the Ravens and Patriots are about to spend money wisely.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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127 Responses to "THE POWER AND STRENGTH OF CLARITY"

  1. raventalon40 says:

    Lowetide:
    Are you shopping in Columbus, Mr. Chiarelli? The sphincter tightens.

    Speaking of Columbus, with Jones coming in as a pending RFA and having the shiny new contract for Savard, I wonder if a Dalton Prout (pending RFA) or discounted Jack Johnson might shake loose. Then we can trade other assets for a Shattenkirk-type.

  2. Lowetide says:

    raventalon40:
    Speaking of Columbus, with Jones coming in as a pending RFA and having the shiny new contract for Savard, I wonder if a Dalton Prout (pending RFA) or discounted Jack Johnson might shake loose. Then we can trade other assets for a Shattenkirk-type.

    I would be interested in Savard or Jones, no interest in the other names you have mentioned.

  3. raventalon40 says:

    Lowetide: I would be interested in Savard or Jones, no interest in the other names you have mentioned.

    I am a big Savard fan, but doubt he will be shipped. They will already have big enough problems this year with trying to lose the Tyutin contract!

  4. GCW_69 says:

    If we set the bar for improvement as outplaying Nelson’s Oilers, rather than last years Oilers, here’s how it breaks down as of now:

    TMac – 73 point pace

    Nelson – 72 point pace (0.466 points less than TMac)

    Eakins – 50 point pace.

  5. wheatnoil says:

    Reinhart showed his strength (drawing a penalty) and (correctly) dished the puck to Oesterle for transportation.

    This was true of the Arizona game, but surprisingly not true of the game last night.

    Reinhart had 6 controlled zone exits (1 carry, 5 passes) to Oesterle’s 3 (1 carry, 2 passes). Reinhart only had 1 uncontrolled zone exits (a missed pass) to Oesterle’s two (1 dump, 1 missed pass).

    Reinhart also had 3 primary passes leading to a controlled zone exit to Osterle’s 1.

    Important to note, though, the pairing of Reinhart – Oesterle was better at moving the puck out of the zone than the Nikitin – Clendening pairing and more efficient at doing so than the Sekera – Fayne pairing (though I suspect competition plays into this and Sekera had a lot of missed passes in the first but was stronger through 2nd & 3rd).

  6. wheatnoil says:

    Zone Exits (Controlled / Uncontrolled):
    Sek – 6/4
    Fayne – 2/1
    Reinhart – 6/1
    Oesterle – 3/1
    Nikitin – 3/2
    Clen – 3/3
    — WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) March 15, 2016

    Zone Entries Denied / Controlled Against:
    Sek – 3/7
    Fayne – 2/2
    Rein – 3/7
    Oest – 2/5
    Niki – 1/7
    Clen – 2/4
    — WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) March 15, 2016

  7. sliderule says:

    The oilers screwed themselves by poor drafting.

    You can even make a case that other than Connor the first picks were not the right ones.

    They may or may not have fixed that by showing Stu the door.

    The oilers need. a tiop D and the only way you can get that is by drafting..

    Chychrun will be there for them if they pick in top three.I very much doubt he will be there at four no matter what mock drafts say.

  8. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The issue of using skill on the penalty kill is a thorny one. to this fan of the ’80s Oilers that ripped up the league with shorties it has a lot of appeal. Nobody ever seemed to get hurt either.

    The injury risk is a thing, though, especially with the Oilers of the 2000s who are an ongoing target of the relentless hockey gords. Both McDavid & Nuge got hurt in PK situations, one on attack, one in defence but both 4v5. The 2 have contributed a combined **72 minutes** to the penalty kill — neither is in the top 12 on the club for either gross or per-game SHTOI, yet both suffered catastrophic injuries that cost them a combined 60 games.

    It almost seems beyond comprehension how this shit keeps happening to this team. I am starting to conclude there are no correct answers &’that whatever they try will immediately be struck by lightning & fried to a crisp.

  9. raventalon40 says:

    GCW_69:
    If we set the bar for improvement as outplaying Nelson’s Oilers, rather than last years Oilers, here’s how it breaks down as of now:

    TMac – 73 point pace

    Nelson – 72 point pace (0.466 points less than TMac)

    Eakins – 50 point pace.

    Haha that Nelson, I def saw him good

  10. barry.moore23 says:

    Love the ‘call is coming from inside the house’ and similar that I’ve learned here. My wife knows i’m not smart enough to think those up myself – she’s figures it’s my nutty Lowetide friends !!! I remind her those people are of superior intelligence.

  11. raventalon40 says:

    sliderule:
    The oilers screwed themselves by poor drafting.

    You can even make a case that other than Connor the first picks were not the right ones.

    They may or may not have fixed that by showing Stu the door.

    The oilers need. a tiop D and the only way you can get that is by drafting..

    Chychrun will be there for them if they pick in top three.I very much doubt he will be there at four no matter what mock drafts say.

    I would rather draft BPA, or trade the pick for an established top pair D man (if available). The D man you draft, unless he is some freak like Ekblad, won’t be able to fill in as your top pair for 5 years or so.

  12. who says:

    Liked most parts of the Oilers game last night. Clearly a goaltender loss. Looks like Chia will have to add a second NHL goalie to his shopping list this summer. Did not like the Maroon MacDavid Eberle line. If I were coaching (isn’t this a fun game to play) it would be Drai between these two wingers. Maroon simply can’t keep up to MacDavid. It was quite noticeable last night. This is a player who creates offfense off the cycle and Drai is the center best suited to this. Anyone who plays with MacDavid needs to be able to score off the rush or at least be in the play. I know that a Maroon Drai Eberle line might struggle on the backcheck but I would like to see what they could do offensively for an extended period of time. On the same subject are we gonna see the lines in a blender for every game. Don’t see how you can give up on some combos after 2 or 3 periods. Reinhart is growing on me. Probably still concedes the blue line a little too easily but looks to be gaining in confidence and that shows in quicker decision making.

  13. raventalon40 says:

    who:
    Liked most parts of the Oilers game last night. Clearly a goaltender loss. Looks like Chia will have to add a second NHL goalie to his shopping list this summer. Did not like the Maroon MacDavid Eberle line. If I were coaching (isn’t this a fun game to play) it would be Drai between these two wingers. Maroon simply can’t keep up to MacDavid. It was quite noticeable last night. This is a player who creates offfense off the cycle and Drai is the center best suited to this. Anyone who plays with MacDavid needs to be able to score off the rush or at least be in the play. I know that a Maroon Drai Eberle line might struggle on the backcheck but I would like to see what they could do offensively for an extended period of time. On the same subject are we gonna see the lines in a blender for every game. Don’t see how you can give up on some combos after 2 or 3 periods. Reinhart is growing on me. Probably still concedes the blue line a little too easily but looks to be gaining in confidence and that shows in quicker decision making.

    That’s a good point, I think a Maroon-Draisaitl-Pakarinen line would be very effective at the cycle, but don’t want to take Draisaitl off that Hall line.

  14. Bruce McCurdy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Zone Exits (Controlled / Uncontrolled):Sek – 6/4Fayne – 2/1Reinhart – 6/1Oesterle – 3/1Nikitin – 3/2Clen – 3/3— WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) March 15, 2016

    Zone Entries Denied / Controlled Against:Sek – 3/7Fayne – 2/2Rein – 3/7Oest – 2/5Niki – 1/7Clen – 2/4— WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) March 15, 2016

    This is good stuff, but can I trouble you for definitions of what you are looking at in the second pair of numbers Entries Denied/Controlled Against. I think I’ve got it but want to know exactly what you are looking for. & where in all this do uncontrolled entries against fit?

  15. linkfromhyrule says:

    Honestly, with that defense we iced last night, we should be happy with the result. 5/6 players spent time in the minors this year. Most of them spent almost the entire year in the minors. We played a very good NSH team right to the end.

    The reffing was atrocious in many cases. That’s nothing new though.

    James Neal is a goalscorer, it’s what he is paid to do. Brossoit will hopefully learn something from last night, and it sounds like he realizes he needs to be more aggressive. I think we are underestimating how good of a shooter Neal is.

    I think they are all ready for the off-season at this point, especially McLellan. He and Chia need to take some time to evaluate. Please don’t do any stupid s**t.

  16. 99266in87 says:

    My friends, ( I don’t really have any on this fine blog ) sometimes it pains me to see you good people argue and slam each other on opinions. Since they are opinions, and I have some of my own and feel like jumping in many times, when it looks quarrelsome, I hold back. So, without further ado, I can certainly say that even though the frustration level is still there when I watch the team, I lasted and am lasting this long. Not like Dementers years and I gave up end of November. Less of the wtf is going on on the ice. TMac has brought a lot of stability to the program. We may criticize and have different input in many ways, but the hand he is dealt with is what all he can work with. As a former coach in minor hockey ( approx 1000 games ) I can feel that he is going with what works best to stay in the games. I feel his pains when the roof caves in, and know what he’s going through when the blender comes out. I can’t criticize him too much as I would never be privy to the top/down operations of the oiler organization, but I understand that he appears to never give up, and keeps it going for the team and the guys. I wish a lot of things from him as do others, but he is an NHL coach, we are not. Chia, was dealt a shit hand of bad contracts, possible bad advice, but, to my eye, needs time to ride out the contracts to free space. I think we all know that. Also, the mix is wrong, and he knew that before we all commented on here. In a subtle way, I know he’s ahead of the curve in directing this team. I can’t say “that I know” but, IMO. Seeing good things, changes will be good, injuries were horrendous, but I watched with great interest 4 months longer than the previous years. Thank you all for your time.

  17. Norman Greenbaum says:

    “As with most things in life, clarity and a good lawyer or agent probably saves the NHL from itself. Young Auston Matthews seems like a pretty bright fellow, and I am sure there are no flies on his agent. If I am the Matthews camp, the interview with the Oilers leading up to the draft would have a decidedly chilly tone. If I am Matthews, the idea of coming to Edmonton and losing for six years (as has Taylor Hall) has no appeal, and Connor McDavid’s presence (although he has been injured for half the season) hasn’t made enough of a difference. Why then, Mr. Oilers, would I want to be part of that? Draft me at your own peril. I would tell my son to do that, if he were in that position, because frankly the Oilers have ruined a lot of futures with their ridiculous decisions. Why would I wish that on Auston Matthews? That is the embarrassment for Daryl Katz and the Oilers: They turn what should be the greatest day of someone’s life into a prison sentence. Congratulations, Steve! Now, it is off to Shawshank! It may not be Matthews this season, but sooner or later someone is going to stand up and say no sir, not my son, not that situation.”

    This has already been done. It won’t ever happen again. The NHL absolutely has the smarts to cut it’s nose off to spite it’s face. It’s an extremely slippery slope. If the league allows one player to do this, then there’s precedent. You’ll have teams courting high-end prospects and tempting them to ‘refuse to report’. It’ll all be nudge, nudge, wink, wink. Better it never happens.

    The NHL did a one-off with Lindros, then vowed never to let it happen again. The prospect who does will be fired into the sun. How’s it working out for Drouin so far? High end prospect, has the league stepped in and said “the fans need to see Drouin, trade him or play him”?

    The GMs and the league are strange fellows; at each others throats one minute, solidarity brother the next. They tend to stick together over things like this.

  18. frjohnk says:

    GCW_69:
    If we set the bar for improvement as outplaying Nelson’s Oilers, rather than last years Oilers, here’s how it breaks down as of now:

    TMac – 73 point pace

    Nelson – 72 point pace (0.466 points less than TMac)

    Eakins – 50 point pace.

    Have you broken down injuries?

    I’m trying to calculate how many points the Oilers would have if they had league average injuries. Very rough calculations so far but different scenarios have the Oilers losing 4, 7 and 9 points with what I have.
    But its a work in progress.

  19. frjohnk says:

    99266in87:
    My friends, ( I don’t really have any on this fine blog ) sometimes it pains me to see you good people argue and slam each other on opinions. Since they are opinions, and I have some of my own and feel like jumping in many times, when it looks quarrelsome, I hold back. So, without further ado, I can certainly say that even though the frustration level is still there when I watch the team, I lasted and am lasting this long. Not like Dementers years and I gave up end of November. Less of the wtf is going on on the ice. TMac has brought a lot of stability to the program. We may criticize and have different input in many ways, but the hand he is dealt with is what all he can work with. As a former coach in minor hockey ( approx 1000 games ) I can feel that he is going with what works best to stay in the games. I feel his pains when the roof caves in, and know what he’s going through when the blender comes out. I can’t criticize him too much as I would never be privy to the top/down operations of the oiler organization, but I understand that he appears to never give up, and keeps it going for the team and the guys. I wish a lot of things from him as do others, but he is an NHL coach, we are not. Chia, was dealt a shit hand of bad contracts, possible bad advice, but, to my eye, needs time to ride out the contracts to free space. I think we all know that. Also, the mix is wrong, and he knew that before we all commented on here. In a subtle way, I know he’s ahead of the curve in directing this team. I can’t say “that I know” but, IMO. Seeing good things, changes will be good, injuries were horrendous, but I watched with great interest 4 months longer than the previous years. Thank you all for your time.

    Welcome.

    Post more.

  20. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is good stuff, but can I trouble you for definitions of what you are looking at in the second pair of numbers Entries Denied/Controlled Against. I think I’ve got it but want to know exactly what you are looking for. & where in all this do uncontrolled entries against fit?

    Good question. I’ve been trialling this out the last couple games and I’m still mulling over the question myself. The zone exits are a little more straight-forward, but the zone entries against are a little tougher and more of a judgement call, so I’m trying to sort it out in my head.

    Last night I coded four categories for Zone Entries Against: Zone Entries Denied, Controlled Entries Against, Chip & Chase (Recovered / Unrecovered), Dump & Chase (Recovered / Unrecovered)

    Zone Entries Denied: Opposing team has possession of the puck in the neutral zone, moving towards the offensive zone, and the defensemen prevents the opposing team from entering the zone through either a loss of possession or a re-group. (I arbitrarily decided that the denial of zone entry has to be on the Oilers’ side of the red line, splitting the ice in to two halves.)

    Controlled Entries Against: Opposing team carries or passes the puck (maintaining possession) into the the zone. This is coded against the defenseman whose side is his responsibility.

    I’m having more difficulty figuring out how to code dump ins. In the Arizona game I recorded dump-ins in the same way as Controlled Entries Against (based on the side of the ice they dump the puck in). I found problems with that as sometimes the other team would Chip & Chase against (say) Nikitin, placing the puck behind him and trying to beat him in a race for the puck in the O-zone. Other times they would attack Clendening’s side but dump the puck hard around the boards so again the battle for the puck was with Nikitin.

    This game I tried coding based on who ended up trying to retrieve the puck after a Chip or a Dump but found that was also unsatisfactory to me. The line between a Chip and a Dump is sometimes pretty blurry and it failed to capture some nice plays, such as Reinhart standing up a forward at the blue line, causing him to chip the puck in, then leading Oesterle to recover.

    Because I’m still trying to figure out the Dump-ins against, I didn’t tweet them out.

  21. p3rsonman says:

    Interesting. I though Hall had a good night by eye and now by numbers, yet he didn’t crack 16 mins 5×5 TOI (nor did Leon’s line in general).

  22. D says:

    Nothing would make me happier than a chilly interview by Auston Matthews. Maybe an embarrassment like that is what it would take to start turning this franchise around.

  23. Woogie63 says:

    wheatnoil:
    Zone Exits (Controlled / Uncontrolled):Sek – 6/4Fayne – 2/1Reinhart – 6/1Oesterle – 3/1Nikitin – 3/2Clen – 3/3— WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) March 15, 2016

    Zone Entries Denied / Controlled Against:Sek – 3/7Fayne – 2/2Rein – 3/7Oest – 2/5Niki – 1/7Clen – 2/4— WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) March 15, 2016

    I am glad you wrote this, I saw Reinhart pretty good last night. On the TV he also looked like a big body that could handle the cycle and make few punishing checks.

    In the NYI game the Sportsnet TV guys pointed out poor gap coverage on Okposo goal (back to the minors…feel shame); last night great gap coverage and he “screening” the goalie. LT correctly points out that puck should have been stopped.

  24. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Welcome.

    Post more.

    But please use paragraphs.

  25. frjohnk says:

    linkfromhyrule: Honestly, with that defense we iced last night, we should be happy with the result. 5/6 players spent time in the minors this year. Most of them spent almost the entire year in the minors. We played a very good NSH team right to the end.

    Probably only Sekera would make the Preds D core. But I thought our blue played relatively well.

    Still waiting for Nikitin to give a tape to tape pass to the opposing team in our slot.

    He is usually good for 1 every 2 games.

    But he is disappointing me right now.

  26. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: Welcome.

    Post more.

    Agreed. Good read, only suggestion is to break up the wall of text into smaller paragraphs. The enter key is our friend. But do keep those comments coming.

    EDIT: Woodguy beat me to the punch again, didn’t mean to pile on.

  27. leadfarmer says:

    Hard to evaluate this roster when you have Sekera, a depth defenseman, and 4 Ahlers. Brossoit is not ready but I would give him a couple more of these meaningless games to work on a few things.
    I’m surprised Hendricks isn’t on Nuges line. He’s better as a winger but he can help Nuge with the face off duties. And do not trade with the Blue Jackets as long as Howson is around. Actually any advice you get from Howson do the opposite.

  28. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    Bruce McCurdy,

    You guys probably meant to reply to the new poster.

    Unless my 3 words need to be in 3 paragraphs separated by 3 lines.

    OK, I’m just being an ass!

  29. wheatnoil says:

    I think what I’m going to do in the future is the following:

    Zone Entries Denied: D-man prevents a zone entry by causing the other team to lose possession or regroup. (Opposing team must have possession and be past the red line. I’m also including situations where the opposing team has clear possession, pass the puck to the winger past the red line, but the Oilers’ D-man intercepts the pass and sends it back the other way).

    Controlled Entries Against: Opposing team carries or passes the puck in, maintaining possession through out. Coded against the D-man who was covering that side.

    Uncontrolled Entries Against: Opposing team chips or dumps the puck in, losing possession with the intention of getting it back. Coded against the D-man who was covering the side where the dump in originated from.

    Dump-in Recoveries vs Failed Recoveries: Whether the D-man successfully recovers a dump in and either gets it out of the zone or gets it to a teammate who maintains possession vs failure to do so (either because they are beat out to the puck, lose the battle, or give the puck away upon getting the puck due to forechecking pressure).

    I have not been including dump ins with no attempt at actually regaining possession (examples include opposing team dumps or tips the puck in and goes for a line change; opposing team clears the puck out from their own end to relieve the pressure causing the puck to go in to the Oilers’ end).

    Also, I haven’t been coding situations where the D-men regroup back in their own end as a zone entry against. (Example: Fayne has the puck in the neutral zone, regroups back just behind the Oilers blue line, passes it to Sekera who moves the puck out). In that situation, I also don’t code a zone exit, unless there’s some forechecking pressure. I’ve just been viewing those plays as extensions of neutral zone play.

    Obviously, there’s some judgement thrown in here, so I’m open to suggestions. I’m trialling it out for the last few games and I’m hoping to establish clear definitions to track (with help) next season.

  30. wheatnoil says:

    Woogie63: In the NYI game the Sportsnet TV guys pointed out poor gap coverage on Okposo goal (back to the minors…feel shame); last night great gap coverage and he “screening” the goalie. LT correctly points out that puck should have been stopped.

    In both the last couple games, I’ve seen Reinhart make some nice plays at the line, either denying a zone entry or making the other team resort to a dump after trying to carry it in.

    That said, he did give Neil a little too much room and allowed him to carry the puck in. Other Oilers D-men were guilty of the same at times (with various opposing wingers) but Reinhart got burned. I agree, though, Brois needs to stop that and he acknowledged as much post-game.

  31. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil,

    Good stuff,

    I just wanted to say with a dump and chase, it would seem that both D pair are more involved. Opposing forward dumps the puck in. Dman A usually runs a bit of interference while Dman B races back to get the puck. Dman A will go to an area of support. Dman B will chip/pass puck to Dman A. Dman A skates or passes the puck out.

    In this case, both Dman A and Dman B played a large role in denying a controlled entry or possession after the dump in.

    In the case these two Dmen do not gain the puck back, then they would both be docked.

    Its not cut and dry, but something to consider

  32. linkfromhyrule says:

    frjohnk: Probably only Sekera would make the Preds D core. But I thought our blue played relatively well.
    Still waiting for Nikitin to give a tape to tape pass to the opposing team in our slot.
    He is usually good for 1 every 2 games.
    But he is disappointing me right now.

    Haha it’s exactly like LT said in the article, if Nikitin had faster feet he could be effective. He’s actually not horrible in the offensive zone either, although I could do without his unscreened wrist shots from 30′ out. Not beating Rinne with that!

    Clendenning seemed like the weakest link imo. Maybe it’s inexperience, but he doesn’t seem to have the skill to keep up a lot of the time.

    If we had Klef and Davidson, I think that was a winnable game for sure. There were many times where one of our D would have the puck, but not the skill to do something effective with it. If we had a more competent player in that spot, suddenly the chance becomes much more dangerous.

  33. SudburyOil says:

    If the Oilers trade Eberle (or anyone, for that matter) to acquire Hamonic, it’ll be the frosting on MacT’s cake of infamy. As Woodguy’s recent assessment of right-handed D shows, Petry’s essentially the equivalent of Hamonic. Trading significant assets to recover what the Oilers recently had–and more or less gave away–is unbelievably frustrating. I hope PC is able to address the D through UFA signings rather than trading Eberle or RNH.

  34. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk:
    wheatnoil,

    Good stuff,

    I just wanted to say with a dump and chase, it would seem that both D pair are more involved. Opposing forward dumps the puck in. Dman A usually runs a bit of interference while Dman B races back to get the puck.Dman A will go to an area of support.Dman B will chip/pass puck to Dman A.Dman A skates or passes the puck out.

    In this case, both Dman A and Dman B played a large role in denying a controlled entry or possession after the dump in.

    In the case these two Dmen do not gain the puck back, then they would both be docked.

    Its not cut and dry, but something to consider

    Yeah that’s quite true. It’s part of the reason why I struggle with the dump & chase categorizing.

    I suppose, in your scenario, coding goes like this:

    D-man A gets an uncontrolled entry against (better than a controlled entry, not as good as denying the entry outright).

    D-man B gets a Dump-In Recovery.

    D-man A gets a Controlled Zone Exit.

  35. frjohnk says:

    linkfromhyrule: If we had Klef and Davidson, I think that was a winnable game for sure

    Those two also happen to have the best slapshot from the blue line and would make a difference on the PP.

    .

  36. Centre of attention says:

    I think the interview between McDavid’s agent and Lowe/MacT was what brought in Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan.

    I’m sure that interview was quite chilly.

  37. bobinyvr says:

    ‘the call is coming from inside the house’ … you got that right, Lowetide

    MacTavish and Howson have to go. This years Oilers were doomed from the start with NIkitin, Ference and to a lesser degree Fayne.

    A few random thoughts:

    The Griffin Reinhart trade has been panned for the asset cost, but consider too the context. Chia had just fired his scouting staff (those offering up names to select at 16 and 33) and likely Bob Green sang the praises of Reinhart. A bet on a closer to ready D may have been a good one, but when Green said he hadn’t seen him in the AHL it was unsettling. Good organizations don’t do this.

    I seriously don’t see the rationale of putting Drai on the wing with Nuge unless Drai takes all the draws.

    To my eye, Hall has improved greatly in the defensive zone this year, much better than Ebs.

    Let’s not rush to judgement on Brossoit, look at the D in last night’s game – it’s possible only 1 of the 6 are here next year.

    Ebs has been my favourite player since I re-engaged with the rebuild, but I am coming around to the idea of trading him. But it saddens me greatly that neither Hall or Ebs ever had the D to clear the zone, make a pass, shoot from the point or centers who could win a draw.

    This organization desperately needs a player to come to the organization and flourish. Too many have come here and see their careers crater. I’m talking more free agents here than picks.
    Seems to me that only David Perron came to Edmonton and had a career year. I have to believe players and their agents talk and this is an untenable situation.

    Maybe Maroon or Kassian or Talbot can be those guys.

  38. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil: Yeah that’s quite true. It’s part of the reason why I struggle with the dump & chase categorizing.

    I suppose, in your scenario, coding goes like this:

    D-man A gets an uncontrolled entry against (better than a controlled entry, not as good as denying the entry outright).

    D-man B gets a Dump-In Recovery.

    D-man A gets a Controlled Zone Exit.

    Yeah, looks about right.

    Good work, looking forward to the stats.

  39. Snowman says:

    bobinyvr,

    A lot of pretty rational thoughts in here.

    Regarding the Reinhart trade and Bob Green, I agree that was quite disappointing to hear that quote. However, Chia said he watched Reinhart and liked his game so take that for what its worth. Doesn’t change much but should be noted.

    Drai has 7 points in his last 20 games. Still making good plays but he’s struggling a bit. Nuge offers cover to Drai if he plays on that line. I think being a full time #1 is starting to wear down Leon and Nuge might offer him some relief. Even Nuge in a down year can help Leon. Mentoring isn’t a bad thing. Faceoffs are an issue for Nuge right now but I stand by my belief that he’ll improve over time. He has improved his draws since he came in the league and I expect him to continue that trend in the future.

    Regarding Brossoit, an NHL calibre goalie should have the second and third goals. Neal has an elite shot but those were from deep. He’s got to have one of the two at least. I’m not sure he’s ready for backup duties, think he might be better served playing another season of heavy starting load on the farm.

  40. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Centre of attention:
    I think the interview between McDavid’s agent and Lowe/MacT was what brought in Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan.

    I’m sure that interview was quite chilly.

    Nope, they wouldn’t fire themselves. The interview with Uncle Darryl and Uncky Bob, though….and maybe a call from Gary.

    I distinctly remember watching the OBC grinning like everything was coming up Milhouse. I had a vision flash in my mind, I instantly thought, after watching MacT, “I don’t know what you’re laughing at Chuckles, it’s not as if you’re going to be calling his (McDavid) name out.”

    Me? I’m calling for the new Skype Sub-Zero(TM) app, motto: GET OVER HERE! to be used on the interview.

  41. bobinyvr says:

    “MacTavish and Howson have to go. This years Oilers were doomed from the start with NIkitin, Ference and to a lesser degree Fayne.”

    OMG, just re-read my previous comment and realized a most glaring omission. To wit.

    This years Oilers were doomed from the start with Schultz, NIkitin, Ference and to a lesser degree Fayne.

  42. Adam Wu says:

    GCW_69:
    If we set the bar for improvement as outplaying Nelson’s Oilers, rather than last years Oilers, here’s how it breaks down as of now:

    TMac – 73 point pace

    Nelson – 72 point pace (0.466 points less than TMac)

    Eakins – 50 point pace.

    Given the comparative injury situations, if the team had not improved, TMac should be doing worse. That the team is at least equal or better demonstrates that some improvements have been made.

  43. dustrock says:

    wheatnoil,

    I like the zone entries stats, thanks.

    2 quick points in general:

    (1) What about putting Draisaitl and McDavid together? RNH, Lander, Le Test Tube on the others.

    (2) LT – when you’re talking Chilly Matthews towards the Oilers, there is a parallel in the NBA. The Philadelphia 76’ers have even out-tanked the Oilers, trading for injured players, drafting guys with potential who had major injuries around draft time, etc. Players were not happy. Other teams were not happy. There was some talk about the league stepping in.

    Kristaps Porzingis, the Latvian rookie sensation drafted by the Knicks, could have been drafted at #3 by the 76ers. His camp refused to meet with the team for pre-draft interviews and workouts. They literally said we are not going to come to your team, so don’t waste your draft pick on us. I don’t think they were as sold on him as the Knicks, but they wanted to do their due diligence. Porzingis wanted the Knicks bad, and they were not shy about telling Philly that.

    This is what tanking gets you. Really think they need to introduce relegation into the NBA and NHL.

  44. hags9k says:

    99266in87,

    My first post was a huge wall of text bashing Hemsky for being butter soft. Reeeeeeally didn’t go over too well, so you are doing great.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    SudburyOil:
    If the Oilers trade Eberle (or anyone, for that matter) to acquire Hamonic, it’ll be the frosting on MacT’s cake of infamy. As Woodguy’s recent assessment of right-handed D shows, Petry’s essentially the equivalent of Hamonic. Trading significant assets to recover what the Oilers recently had–and more or less gave away–is unbelievably frustrating. I hope PC is able to address the D through UFA signings rather than trading Eberle or RNH.

    You are not just trading eberle for Hamonic. You are trading Eberle for a pretty good defensemen signed on for a very good contract, cap space and a roster spot. I’m guessing Eberle is being moved to the highest bidder and a truck full of money is going to end up at Lucic’s house.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The issue of using skill on the penalty kill is a thorny one. to this fan of the ’80s Oilers that ripped up the league with shorties it has a lot of appeal. Nobody ever seemed to get hurt either.

    Donald Trump would call these Lowe+MacT Oilers: “Little Babies”. The fact they’re easily intimidated and fun to slap around isn’t exactly a secret throughout the NHL either.

  47. Adam Wu says:

    There really is no need for a chilly Austin Matthews interview. Should the Oilers win that first overall pick again, it is in their best interest to trade it for D help anyways.

    And if they should draft Matthews, the salary cap means that in order to keep both Matthews and McDavid, and have enough money to pay for players playing other positions, they’d have to flush at least 2 of Hall/RNH/Yak (and Eberle) eventually – ie they have to “release” a significant chunk of their accumulated 1OVs back to the rest of the league.

  48. Stelio Kontos says:

    dustrock:
    wheatnoil,

    This is what tanking gets you.Really think they need to introduce relegation into the NBA and NHL.

    Ok, so then nobody wants to come to Edmonton, because it’s cold, barren, and AHL hockey… It is not a logical position.

    Then the NHL loses one of it’s biggest markets, probably more. Montreal and Toronto would probably be relegated as well.

  49. Adam Wu says:

    leadfarmer: You are not just trading eberle for Hamonic.You are trading Eberle for a pretty good defensemen signed on for a very good contract, cap space and a roster spot.I’m guessing Eberle is being moved to the highest bidder and a truck full of money is going to end up at Lucic’s house.

    Yes, Hamonic’s contract is much better for the team than what Petry eventually got from Montreal.

    And if McT had signed Petry to a contract like Hamonics? He’d still be GM….

  50. hags9k says:

    leadfarmer,

    I’m hoping come the offseason Snow is feeling more pressure to accommodate Hamonic and he comes cheap, or at least cheaper than Eberle.

    After reading Woodguy’s work on RHD (good stuff, I noticed it while leaving the yard) I’m less enamoured with Hamonic, but I suppose the contract is very good. His name kept coming up alongside Petry’s, like some sort of cruel joke.

    Demers looks like he would be an even better get.

  51. Ducey says:

    Centre of attention:
    I think the interview between McDavid’s agent and Lowe/MacT was what brought in Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan.

    I’m sure that interview was quite chilly.

    I am sure you have no evidence whatsoever of any of that.

    Whether Austin Mathews likes EDM won’t matter much. I would think ARIZ would very much like to have him, being born there, and all.

    I can’t see them trading OEL, but how about Mathews for Connor Murphy and Michael Stone? That would bring in 2 big, young, talented right handed defensemen.

    Both grade out nicely in Woodguy’s Nimoy analysis as #1.5 defensemen. Murphy is only 22. So room to grow.

  52. dustrock says:

    Stelio Kontos: Ok, so then nobody wants to come to Edmonton, because it’s cold, barren, and AHL hockey… It is not a logical position.

    Then the NHL loses one of it’s biggest markets, probably more. Montreal and Toronto would probably be relegated as well.

    Get rid of NTC & NMC.

    The NHL doesn’t make money off of Edmonton anyway.

  53. hunter1909 says:

    Norman Greenbaum: I distinctly remember watching the OBC grinning like everything was coming up Milhouse. I had a vision flash in my mind, I instantly thought, after watching MacT, “I don’t know what you’re laughing at Chuckles, it’s not as if you’re going to be calling his (McDavid) name out.”

    I’ve been browbeaten into accepting these Bozo’s are permanent fixtures until Katz bails(3-5 years, tops).

  54. Bruce McCurdy says:

    bobinyvr: The Griffin Reinhart trade has been panned for the asset cost, but consider too the context. Chia had just fired his scouting staff (those offering up names to select at 16 and 33) and likely Bob Green sang the praises of Reinhart. A bet on a closer to ready D may have been a good one, but when Green said he hadn’t seen him in the AHL it was unsettling. Good organizations don’t do this.

    It wasn’t Bob Green’s job to track the AHL. I suppose he could have just lied and said he’d seen GR and seen him good in that league. But he was basing his own judgement on the 4+ prior years he’d seen GR and seen him good.

    Perhaps there was a step missing in which Chiarelli should have talked to the pro scouts whose job it is to track the high minors, or perhaps he did ask & we don’t know about it.

  55. haters says:

    LT
    Mathews is lucky to get the privilege to play a sport for a living, not to mention get paid copious amounts of duckets to do so 🙂

    I get what your saying, but it’s just a game, if LB didn’t siv last night we all be recounting that marvoulos pass by McD, arguing if trading Ebs this summer is the right call, and wondering if anyone noticed Yak looked very good last night.

    I’m all for lamenting another season lost, but I still can’t help thinking what this team would have done healthy.

    Any player coming to this team in the draft this year should not be wondering if Edmonton is a good hockey team but where they might fit in the line up ^^

    If we get Mathews Nuge will go.
    Laine ? Goodbye Ebs
    Chuchyrun ? I would think Reinhart

  56. godot10 says:

    GCW_69:
    If we set the bar for improvement as outplaying Nelson’s Oilers, rather than last years Oilers, here’s how it breaks down as of now:

    TMac – 73 point pace

    Nelson – 72 point pace (0.466 points less than TMac)

    Eakins – 50 point pace.

    Nelson ran at a 77 point pace. You are attributing MacT’s 5 games as coach to him.

  57. Norman Greenbaum says:

    dustrock: Get rid of NTC & NMC.

    The NHL doesn’t make money off of Edmonton anyway.

    Sarcasm? I seriously can’t tell.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs-forbes-most-valuable-franchises-new-york-rangers-montreal-canadiens/

    The NHL does alright off of Edmonton. Obviously not as good as hockey hot beds such as Arizona, Florida and Nashville (funny they’re all having good years, now pass me the tin foil).

  58. jonrmcleod says:

    I don’t want to steal Rex’s thunder, but here’s his first post on The Oilers Rig:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/03/whats-jordan-eberle-worth/

  59. Stelio Kontos says:

    dustrock: Get rid of NTC & NMC.

    The NHL doesn’t make money off of Edmonton anyway.

    Yeah, and then all the players can work for free. It’s a ridiculous argument, and will never happen. It also has no viable reason to happen.

  60. hags9k says:

    Nicholson talked a fair bit about the prominent role loyalty would play in the organization moving forward. I still hold out hope that they can fix the D without tearing up the forward group, (14 and 10 in particular) and let this group have one more chance to turn it North.

    Trade the pick(s), land a free agent, tinker with the 4th line.

    If they leave this forward group alone and they get it turned around next year, I think the payoff would be we would have a real tight knit team.

    Can the D be fixed without touching those players is the question. I think it can.

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    wheatnoil: Last night I coded four categories for Zone Entries Against: Zone Entries Denied, Controlled Entries Against, Chip & Chase (Recovered / Unrecovered), Dump & Chase (Recovered / Unrecovered)

    Good stuff. You may know I did a Zone Exits project during the (third) lockout season, tracked every time the puck moved north across Oilers blueline, whether controlled or uncontrolled, with the former broken down further into carries and passes. Learned a lot in the process. (Sample post here singing Jeff Petry’s praises. )

    Like you I had a few plays I didn’t bother counting, like D to D passes where they briefly back into their own zone while in possession and then work their way back out. As the year went along I started taking more note of what I called Zone Denials but there was no way I was going to go back & catch those up. That said they are pretty important plays if hard to track, & it follows that a player who is good at it will reap the benefits in his underlying numbers somewhere. Case in point: Martin Marincin who is excellent at standing up the play right at the blueline. Hearing some buzz out of Toronto these days on this very thing. I would include forced offsides in that particular count as well, although obviously it’s better when a turnover followed by a north-bound puck occurs.

    I did do enough work on this project — which required tracking every minute of every game — to appreciate how much work it is, and I commend you on your efforts.

  62. Stelio Kontos says:

    hunter1909: Donald Trump would call these Lowe+MacT Oilers:“Little Babies”.The fact they’re easily intimidated and fun to slap around isn’t exactly a secret throughout the NHL either.

    I love how trump thinks he’s tough as an obese 60 year old man. He shouldn’t be talking down to anyone.

  63. Woodguy says:

    Sekera—Fayne continue to perform well, although there was a lot of anger towards Sekera when he couldn’t get the puck through at the end of the game. For me, that is a Hail Mary play and it is wise to look over the entire game.

    Agreed that its a Hail Mary, but Sekera’s continuing inability to get the puck through and on net got me thinking about that as an asset for a Dman.

    The ability to get shots through is an asset, so how do the Oilers rate?

    This is every Oiler Dman to play 750+ 5v5 minutes over the last 2 years and their Shot on net/Individual shot attempt, and where it ranks in the sample of 210 NHL Dmen who have played 750 minutes+ over the past 2 years.

    NIKITIN, NIKITA 0.531 5th
    NURSE, DARNELL 0.497 26th
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 0.438 131st
    GRYBA, ERIC 0.411 138th
    PARDY, ADAM 0.405 178th
    FAYNE, MARK 0.398 189th
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 0.396 191st
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 0.377 200th
    FERENCE, ANDREW 0.353 206th

    Also, because someone will ask: Demers 0.400 186th.

    So don’t hate Rej becuse he can’t get a puck through, that’s just who he is.

    I wonder if McLellan knows this stuff?

    Looks like he should try Darnell on the PP when he gets back from suspension.

    And my brother Nik of course! 5th!! (but you have to put up with more break-aways due to Nik skating in sand)

  64. godot10 says:

    who:
    Liked most parts of the Oilers game last night. Clearly a goaltender loss. Looks like Chia will have to add a second NHL goalie to his shopping list this summer. Did not like the Maroon MacDavid Eberle line. If I were coaching (isn’t this a fun game to play) it would be Drai between these two wingers. Maroon simply can’t keep up to MacDavid. It was quite noticeable last night. This is a player who creates offfense off the cycle and Drai is the center best suited to this. Anyone who plays with MacDavid needs to be able to score off the rush or at least be in the play. I know that a Maroon Drai Eberle line might struggle on the backcheck but I would like to see what they could do offensively for an extended period of time. On the same subject are we gonna see the lines in a blender for every game. Don’t see how you can give up on some combos after 2 or 3 periods. Reinhart is growing on me. Probably still concedes the blue line a little too easily but looks to be gaining in confidence and that shows in quicker decision making.

    Pouliot has an almost ideal skill set for playing with McDavid. His has some size. He is fast. He is an aggressive forechecker. And he can make and and take a pass.

  65. dustrock says:

    Stelio Kontos: Yeah, and then all the players can work for free. It’s a ridiculous argument, and will never happen. It also has no viable reason to happen.

    Oh it will never happen, and I’m not saying it would happen. How would the owners and players ever agree to it? It would just be interesting to see how teams would maneuver if there was actually a penalty for not properly managing a team.

    The Oilers are such an interesting case because they have been putrid for the last decade, yet routinely have some of the best attendance in the NHL. The NHL really had no reason to step in, because they were still making money off the Oilers.

    I wonder if it was, say, the Coyotes or Panthers, or even the Stars or Ducks, who hypothetically had the same results as the Oilers, and their attendance then suffered drastically, would the league have stepped in?

    This is all pure speculation because once again, nothing to talk about until the draft. :p

  66. godot10 says:

    raventalon40: That’s a good point, I think a Maroon-Draisaitl-Pakarinen line would be very effective at the cycle, but don’t want to take Draisaitl off that Hall line.

    One can put Nugent-Hopkins with Hall.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins
    Pouliot, McDavid
    Maroon, Draisaitl

    Now go find a new set of right wings.

  67. Stelio Kontos says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It wasn’t Bob Green’s job to track the AHL. I suppose he could have just lied and said he’d seen GR and seen him good in that league. But he was basing his own judgement on the 4+ prior years he’d seen GR and seen him good.

    Perhaps there was a step missing in which Chiarelli should have talked to the pro scouts whose job it is to track the high minors, or perhaps he did ask & we don’t know about it.

    My guess is he was working on Harmonic and Snow threw out reinhart. Time was ticking on the draft floor and he asked the guys around him, all of which started hyperventilating.

  68. bobinyvr says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks Bruce for clarifying this situation.

    BTW, I very much enjoy your segments on radio.

  69. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    Sekera—Fayne continue to perform well, although there was a lot of anger towards Sekera when he couldn’t get the puck through at the end of the game. For me, that is a Hail Mary play and it is wise to look over the entire game.

    Agreed that its a Hail Mary, but Sekera’s continuing inability to get the puck through and on net got me thinking about that as an asset for a Dman.

    The ability to get shots through is an asset, so how do the Oilers rate?

    This is every Oiler Dman to play 750+ 5v5 minutes over the last 2 years and their Shot on net/Individual shot attempt, and where it ranks in the sample of 210 NHL Dmen who have played 750 minutes+ over the past 2 years.

    NIKITIN, NIKITA 0.531 5th
    NURSE, DARNELL 0.497 26th
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 0.438 131st
    GRYBA, ERIC 0.411 138th
    PARDY, ADAM 0.405 178th
    FAYNE, MARK 0.398 189th
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 0.396 191st
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 0.377 200th
    FERENCE, ANDREW 0.353 206th

    Also, because someone will ask: Demers 0.400 186th.

    So don’t hate Rej becuse he can’t get a puck through, that’s just who he is.

    I wonder if McLellan knows this stuff?

    Looks like he should try Darnell on the PP when he gets back from suspension.

    And my brother Nik of course!5th!! (but you have to put up with more break-aways due to Nik skating in sand)

    Interesting stuff, WG. This has been a subject that I have tinkered with since way back in the day that Vic Ferrari ran timeonice.com, but I never really sunk my teeth into it.

    Suggest you factor shot distance into those percentages, not that closer shots are a bad thing per sé but they are bound to increase shooting accuracy in terms of getting the puck on (not necessarily “in”) net. Nurse for example takes a fair percentage of his shots on rushes, from wraparounds, or from bad angles where he hits the target but opposing d-men know better than to shove their sticks into the shooting lane because that’s pretty much the only bad thing that can happen. I’d suggest relatively few of his shots are true point shots into traffic, whereas that is mostly what Sekera does (or should I say, “tries to do”).

    Rej had 2 shots blocked in the goalie out scenario including one in the abbreviated 6-on-4 in the dying seconds. I watched it after the fact knowing the outcome and still was heard to utter an audible “fuck!” that drew a glance from my long-suffering bride.

    If Oilers are going to try a hail mary, I’d rather it be a different guy firing the puck unless there are literally 2 seconds on the clock.

  70. frjohnk says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I don’t want to steal Rex’s thunder, but here’s his first post on The Oilers Rig:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/03/whats-jordan-eberle-worth/

    Great article Rex

  71. Bruce McCurdy says:

    bobinyvr:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks Bruce for clarifying this situation.

    BTW, I very much enjoy your segments on radio.

    Thanks. So do I. Lowetide’s show is always a pleasure to listen to, and an even greater pleasure to contribute to for a few minutes each week. He’s a real pro who makes it easy on his guests to simply have a conversation with him.

  72. dustrock says:

    Woodguy,

    Who was it, Matt Henderson at Oilers Nation that reviewed the Oilers PP and found Schultz was (much) worse than both Sekera and Klefbom?

    IIRC, Sekera was better than Klefbom at generating shots, but Klefbom was better at actually hitting the target.

    Which would correspond with what my eyes tell me with Sekera.

  73. RexLibris says:

    Regarding the draft lottery rule changes –

    LT I listened to your Sam Pollock/NHL rant last Wednesday and honestly, I don’t recall the last time I laughed that hard.

    I stopped the car, if that is any indication.

    My god that was funny stuff. All of it true, but hilariously so.

    They are going to make these rules so bloody arcane.

    Rather than focus on the bloody draft lottery why not pay attention to bringing some consistency to the damned officiating? Players are getting injured, teams are losing opportunities to win games, and it is affecting the standings.

    If we could make the argument that poor officiating cost the Oilers even two points this year, and those points separated the team by one place in the overall standings, it would make a world of difference for the perception of that team around the league.

    1 pt separated Florida and Edmonton in 2014, in 2013 Colorado, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Carolina and Calgary were only 3 pts apart.

    I’m thinking I might take a stab at evaluating the officiating of the remaining games the way GMoney described doing years ago, if only to have some small data set on which to proceed. Because to my memory I don’t recall seeing a more inconsistent season.

  74. RexLibris says:

    frjohnk: Great article Rex

    Thanks, I haven’t had a chance to catch up on it yet, or I would’ve shamelessly hijacked the thread for self-promotion! 😉

  75. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I was aware of that and when I post the data (planned to be regular updates over at The Oilers Rig) I plan on giving you, Jon Willis, and Jen LC full credit for getting me interested in zone entry / exit stuff in the first place. I may have mentioned this to you before, but the work you and Jon did that year was really eye-opening stuff for me and I greatly appreciated it.

    I’m making it a bit easier on myself by only tracking D-men and only tracking pure 5×5 play so I get some breaks during the game! I’m adding “primary passes leading to a zone exit” as well, at least at first to see if there’s any useful data that comes from that.

    Forced offsides is a good one! I’ll include it as a denied zone entry.

  76. frjohnk says:

    dustrock,

    Independent corsi attempts on PP
    Andrej.Sekera 92
    Justin.Schultz 36
    Oscar.Klefbom 18
    Brandon.Davidson 12
    Brad.Hunt 9
    Adam.Clendening 5

    Shots on net while on PP
    Andrej.Sekera 33
    Justin.Schultz 12
    Oscar.Klefbom 10
    Brandon.Davidson 7
    Brad.Hunt 2
    Adam.Clendening 2

    Percentage of corsi attempts that hit the net

    Andrej.Sekera 0.35
    Justin.Schultz 0.33
    Oscar.Klefbom 0.55
    Brandon.Davidson 0.58
    Brad.Hunt 0.22
    Adam.Clendening 0.4

    Shots per 60 minutes on PP
    Andrej.Sekera 12.9
    Justin.Schultz 7.4
    Oscar.Klefbom 11.3
    Brandon.Davidson 19.6
    Brad.Hunt 7.1
    Adam.Clendening 6.79

    Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson are our three best PP options from the blue.

    Two of them are injured.

    EDIT: And if all three are healthy, Id use Klefbom and Davidson before Sekera, because those two can launch it. Sekera, not so much.

  77. dustrock says:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/12/9/shot-in-the-foot

    Here’s the Henderson article from December I mentioned above.

  78. dustrock says:

    frjohnk,

    Yup, Sekera can generate shots, but when you look at Corsi v. Fenwick, seems like a fair bunch get blocked.

    Crazy how poor Schultz was on the PP, which was supposed to be his bread and butter.

  79. SudburyOil says:

    leadfarmer,

    Fair enough. Getting Hamonic instead of Petry would save $1.64MM /year in cap hit. If the trade happens.

    But letting Petry slip away cost the Oilers a year without a strong RHD. It’s hard to calculate what that missed opportunity cost dollar- or point-wise–maybe nothing, maybe a lot. Every year lost on 97’s ELC is worth something.

  80. Spaceman Spiff says:

    I think it’s hilarious when the league governors (and media in Toronto) shake their fists at the Sky Gods every time the Oilers lose a game after the all-star break. If they don’t like what the lottery brings, then ditch the lottery – stop trying to tweak it to appease “optics” and just get rid of the darn thing altogether.

    We can all debate about whether or not any actual tanking has taken place or if the Oilers have stunk organically, but the inconvenient truth is that the Oilers have finished 30th overall a grand total of … twice. That’s one fewer than the Quebec Nordiques of 1989-91.

    All of the other years, the Oilers beat the odds, besting a miniature clothes-dryer that dumps numbered racquetballs into a dish-rack. I’m not particularly proud of any of that and I don’t particularly want the Oilers to finish last or draft first this summer, either, but I also recognize what outhouse-luck looks like. The whining from the pointy-heads needs to stop. Turf the lottery or live with it.

  81. Professor Q says:

    RexLibris:
    Regarding the draft lottery rule changes –

    LT I listened to your Sam Pollock/NHL rant last Wednesday and honestly, I don’t recall the last time I laughed that hard.

    I stopped the car, if that is any indication.

    My god that was funny stuff. All of it true, but hilariously so.

    They are going to make these rules so bloody arcane.

    Rather than focus on the bloody draft lottery why not pay attention to bringing some consistency to the damned officiating? Players are getting injured, teams are losing opportunities to win games, and it is affecting the standings.

    If we could make the argument that poor officiating cost the Oilers even two points this year, and those points separated the team by one place in the overall standings, it would make a world of difference for the perception of that team around the league.

    1 pt separated Florida and Edmonton in 2014, in 2013 Colorado, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Carolina and Calgary were only 3 pts apart.

    I’m thinking I might take a stab at evaluating the officiating of the remaining games the way GMoney described doing years ago, if only to have some small data set on which to proceed. Because to my memory I don’t recall seeing a more inconsistent season.

    We definitely can make the argument that they’ve lost ~ 10-15 points by eye due to poor officiating, and more if we include injury-inducing officiating.

  82. Professor Q says:

    Spaceman Spiff:
    I think it’s hilarious when the league governors (and media in Toronto) shake their fists at the Sky Gods every time the Oilers lose a game after the all-star break. If they don’t like what the lottery brings, then ditch the lottery – stop trying to tweak it to appease “optics” and just get rid of the darn thing altogether.

    We can all debate about whether or not any actual tanking has taken place or if the Oilers have stunk organically, but the inconvenient truth is that the Oilers have finished 30th overall a grand total of … twice. That’s one fewer than the Quebec Nordiques of 1989-91.

    All of the other years, the Oilers beat the odds, besting a miniature clothes-dryer that dumps numbered racquetballs into a dish-rack. I’m not particularly proud of any of that and I don’t want the Oilers to finish last or draft first this summer, either, but I also recognize what outhouse-luck looks like. The whining from the pointy-heads needs to stop. Turf the lottery or live with it.

    And one year losing out to said “clothes dryer” when New Jersey won.

  83. frjohnk says:

    dustrock: Crazy how poor Schultz was on the PP, which was supposed to be his bread and butter.

    Yeah, he didn’t really ever shoot much.

    Player________Season____Shots/60 on PP
    Justin.Schultz__2014.15____7.482678984
    Justin.Schultz__2013.14____7.966804979
    Justin.Schultz__2012.13___11.94426012

    And he only had 6 PP goals in 242 games.

    He was a good transporter of the puck, meh passer, did not shoot much, average in getting shots to the net when he did shoot, and his shot was underwhelming when it did hit the net.

    I will say this about Schultz, he was one of the best Dmen in the league 5 on 5 in the Ozone in creating high danger chances. That was the only thing he did elite.

  84. McSorley33 says:

    It is like Groundhog Day….all over again.

    Matt Hendricks with some interesting comments yesterday….

  85. leadfarmer says:

    hags9k:
    leadfarmer,

    I’m hoping come the offseason Snow is feeling more pressure to accommodate Hamonic and he comes cheap, or at least cheaper than Eberle.

    After reading Woodguy’s work on RHD (good stuff, I noticed it while leaving the yard) I’m less enamoured with Hamonic, but I suppose the contract is very good.His name kept coming up alongside Petry’s, like some sort of cruel joke.

    Demers looks like he would be an even better get.

    Any way you look at it, Chia has to add at least two top 4 defensemen this offseason and they both should be RHD, so at minimum he needs to aim for Demers AND Hamonic or higher. Getting just one and hoping for enough growth from the current crop is just not enough.

  86. Professor Q says:

    Ducey: I am sure you have no evidence whatsoever of any of that.

    Whether Austin Mathews likes EDM won’t matter much. I would think ARIZ would very much like to have him, being born there, and all.

    I can’t see them trading OEL, but how about Mathews for Connor Murphy and Michael Stone?That would bring in 2 big, young, talented right handed defensemen.

    Both grade out nicely in Woodguy’s Nimoy analysis as #1.5 defensemen. Murphy is only 22.So room to grow.

    Everyone forgets about Tkatchuk…

  87. leadfarmer says:

    SudburyOil:
    leadfarmer,

    Fair enough. Getting Hamonic instead of Petry would save $1.64MM /year in cap hit. If the trade happens.

    But letting Petry slip away cost the Oilers a year without a strong RHD. It’s hard to calculate what that missed opportunity cost dollar- or point-wise–maybe nothing, maybe a lot. Every year lost on 97’s ELC is worth something.

    Unfortunately we can’t trade with MacT and not too many crazy GMs out there and Benning is not likely to trade to a western conference rival.

  88. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: I am sure you have no evidence whatsoever of any of that.

    Whether Austin Mathews likes EDM won’t matter much. I would think ARIZ would very much like to have him, being born there, and all.

    I can’t see them trading OEL, but how about Mathews for Connor Murphy and Michael Stone?That would bring in 2 big, young, talented right handed defensemen.

    Both grade out nicely in Woodguy’s Nimoy analysis as #1.5 defensemen. Murphy is only 22.So room to grow.

    Playing with OEL will help you grade well.

    Just like Josh Manson playing with Lindholm.

    I’ll make sure to dig deeper on Murphy, he’s been mentioned by a few people.

  89. frjohnk says:

    Player_______season___Shots/60
    Brent.Burns___2015.16__16.0
    Brent.Burns___2014.15__14.5
    Brent.Burns___2013.14__17.7
    Brent.Burns___2012.13__15.6
    Brent.Burns___2011.12__14.5
    Brent.Burns___2010.11__11.5

    Oilers D have averaged 9.4 shots/60 on the PP since 2010.

    Burns has 33 goals on the PP since 2010.
    All the Oilers D since 2010 have 32 goals on the PP.

    Burns has played 1407 minutes on the PP since 2010.
    Oilers D have played 3015 minutes.

    Brent Burns has gotten 49% of his shots through to the net on the PP.
    Oilers D have gotten 43% of their shots on net while on the PP.

    Now I know it is not fair comparing one of the best PP quarterbacks in the league to an Oilers D core that has thrown out Smid, Peckham, Potter, Foster, Ference on the PP. But I just wanted an idea on how it looks.

    And she aint pretty.

  90. Bruce McCurdy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I was aware of that and when I post the data (planned to be regular updates over at The Oilers Rig) I plan on giving you, Jon Willis, and Jen LC full credit for getting me interested in zone entry / exit stuff in the first place. I may have mentioned this to you before, but the work you and Jon did that year was really eye-opening stuff for me and I greatly appreciated it.

    I’m making it a bit easier on myself by only tracking D-men and only tracking pure 5×5 play so I get some breaks during the game! I’m adding “primary passes leading to a zone exit” as well, at least at first to see if there’s any useful data that comes from that.

    Forced offsides is a good one! I’ll include it as a denied zone entry.

    2 types come to mind: 1) player engaging the puck carrier disrupts the timing of the attack. 2) player engaging the non-puck carrier pushes him over the line ahead of the puck & causes the offside. (Technically interference but rarely enforced and not subject to their precious video review either.)

  91. maxwell_mischief says:

    I am a believer in Reinhart. He looks like he needs to add a step in the summer, with an extra 10 pounds of man. Then another step and 5 more man pounds- then I think he’ll be a champ. I think he is a heady player, who right now just can’t quite do what his brain tells him. As is with any artist finding a synchronicity with the ideas and the execution, and Grif has a small window. As a full grown man, I see him as someone who can manage a game with his decision making, and also put up some decent numbers (he’s walked right down the center of the ice a good reads jumping into the play, and makes smart pinches).
    If he gets traded I wouldn’t be all that upset, but he is a guy I would like to “see through” becuse there is something there.

  92. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dustrock:
    http://oilersnation.com/2015/12/9/shot-in-the-foot

    Here’s the Henderson article from December I mentioned above.

    Thnaks for the link, that’s one I missed entirely along the way.

    A few days later (and several million dollars short) I wrote this somewhat-similar take:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-whatever-happened-to-justin-schultz-powerplay-wizard

  93. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    dustrock,

    Independent corsi attempts on PP
    Andrej.Sekera92
    Justin.Schultz36
    Oscar.Klefbom18
    Brandon.Davidson12
    Brad.Hunt9
    Adam.Clendening5

    Shots on net while on PP
    Andrej.Sekera33
    Justin.Schultz12
    Oscar.Klefbom10
    Brandon.Davidson7
    Brad.Hunt2
    Adam.Clendening2

    Percentage of corsi attempts that hit the net

    Andrej.Sekera0.35
    Justin.Schultz0.33
    Oscar.Klefbom0.55
    Brandon.Davidson0.58
    Brad.Hunt0.22
    Adam.Clendening0.4

    Shots per 60 minutes on PP
    Andrej.Sekera12.9
    Justin.Schultz7.4
    Oscar.Klefbom11.3
    Brandon.Davidson19.6
    Brad.Hunt7.1
    Adam.Clendening6.79

    Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson are our three best PP options from the blue.

    Two of them are injured.

    EDIT: And if all three are healthy, Id use Klefbom and Davidson before Sekera, because those two can launch it.Sekera, not so much.

    Thanks Padre.

    Too be clear, the numbers I posted were all 5v5

  94. Lois Lowe says:

    Why do you hate Reinhart, LT? You’re heading into Smid territory with the poor kid.

    Does anyone know offhand what Nelson’s projected goal differential was last season? I remain optimistic largely because TMac has the team up 35 goals against compared to last year.

    As far as the lottery goes, the NHL needs to realize that the Oilers haven’t tanked since the Hall draft. They are unintentionally bad. The league should be more concerned with what the Leafs are doing this season.

  95. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Yeah, he didn’t really ever shoot much.

    Player________Season____Shots/60 on PP
    Justin.Schultz__2014.15____7.482678984
    Justin.Schultz__2013.14____7.966804979
    Justin.Schultz__2012.13___11.94426012

    And he only had 6 PP goals in 242 games.

    He was a good transporter of the puck, meh passer, did not shoot much, average in getting shots to the net when he did shoot, and his shot was underwhelming when it did hit the net.

    I will say this about Schultz, he was one of the best Dmen in the league 5 on 5 in the Ozone in creating high danger chances.That was the only thing he did elite.

    Yup.

    Schultz is a killer in ozone at helping create scoring chances.

    Not that good at much else.

    Doing pretty good playing 3rds in PIT.

    A little vindication for the many of us who wanted Jultz on the 3rd for the entire time he was here.

  96. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Why do you hate Reinhart?

    You talking to one of us or all of us?

  97. Lois Lowe says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Et tu, Bruce?

  98. Cameron says:

    Just dropping by here to wish my buddy (and frequent Lowetide lurker/commenter) Douglas McLachlan a happy birthday today.

    Congratulations on another trip round the sun Doug!

    I now return you to your regularly scheduled rending of garments.

  99. Alpine says:

    I don’t want out to sound overly obsessed with defensemen handedness, biut I would have liked the Reinhart bet more if he was simply RH. I didn’t mind them bet much in the first place but I just didn’t understand the cost (1st rounder+) vs. the need (another inexperienced LHD).

    If they wanted an ex Oil King that could defend and move the puck and fit in with their D core why didn’t they just move those picks to BUF for Pysyk? Just a bit baffling that of the number of guys they could have targeted, they ended up at Reinhart. Lots of blame should rest with Bob Green there, lots with PC, and probably a decent amount with MacT.

    Maybe they should listen to other guys next time. Bill Scott could have probably identified a better target with his years watching up and comers in AHL or our friend Ty Dellow could have spit out a few undervalued names worth chasing.

  100. Adam Wu says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Why do you hate Reinhart, LT? You’re heading into Smid territory with the poor kid.

    Does anyone know offhand what Nelson’s projected goal differential was last season? I remain optimistic largely because TMac has the team up 35 goals against compared to last year.

    As far as the lottery goes, the NHL needs to realize that the Oilers haven’t tanked since the Hall draft. They are unintentionally bad. The league should be more concerned with what the Leafs are doing this season.

    It is precisely because the Oilers tanked too hard for Hall that the subsequent years of failure occurred. They tossed all the veterans they needed to shelter and groom their young talent, and they blew up the D corps they have never been able to fix since.

    Things weren’t helped by poor decisions afterwards, but this was the root of the rot.

    Which is yet another reason why there actually isn’t anything wrong at all with the draft lottery system. Tanking, when you aren’t already horrible, results in you torpedoing your own ability to redevelop. It is its own punishment.

  101. Professor Q says:

    Adam Wu,

    They were on the road to ruin long before Hall.

  102. fifthcartel says:

    Alpine,

    I think it’s a very fair point.

    It’s also interesting Chiarelli said he believes GR was ready prior to the season, and that’s clearly not the case now. They can’t have both Nurse/Reinhart on the team next year logging significant minutes so I wonder how that works out.

    If the idea that Reinhart was going to help more than 16/33, yet he’s still in the minors two years late is a very bad sign.

    I think the trade looks even worse today but I’m curious to see what they do with him going forwad.

  103. who says:

    godot10: One can put Nugent-Hopkins with Hall.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins
    Pouliot, McDavid
    Maroon, Draisaitl

    Now go find a new set of right wings.

    Yeah that looks pretty good to me. If we are using the right wingers we have I would like to see Eberle with Drai, Yak with MacDavid and Kass with Nuge. You could flip Eberle with Yak and not hurt my feelings.

  104. Lowetide says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Why do you hate Reinhart, LT? You’re heading into Smid territory with the poor kid.

    I am a Reinhart fan. He was golden as an Oil King. I did not believe the trade was a good one, and do believe this has been a difficult season for him. GR should have a future, hope he does. But that doesn’t mean I am incapable of acknowledging his shortcomings.

  105. RJ2016 says:

    Charlie O’Connor at BroadStreet Hockey had been tracking controlled/uncontrolled zone exits/zone entries all season. He’s got a bunch of definitions that seem pretty useful. Perhaps you can see what he’s done as a guide.

    Charlie is my favorite non-Oiler blogger.

    wheatnoil: Good question. I’ve been trialling this out the last couple games and I’m still mulling over the question myself. The zone exits are a little more straight-forward, but the zone entries against are a little tougher and more of a judgement call, so I’m trying to sort it out in my head.

    Last night I coded four categories for Zone Entries Against: Zone Entries Denied, Controlled Entries Against, Chip & Chase (Recovered / Unrecovered), Dump & Chase (Recovered / Unrecovered)

    Zone Entries Denied: Opposing team has possession of the puck in the neutral zone, moving towards the offensive zone, and the defensemen prevents the opposing team from entering the zone through either a loss of possession or a re-group. (I arbitrarily decided that the denial of zone entry has to be on the Oilers’ side of the red line, splitting the ice in to two halves.)

    Controlled Entries Against: Opposing team carries or passes the puck (maintaining possession) into the the zone. This is coded against the defenseman whose side is his responsibility.

    I’m having more difficulty figuring out how to code dump ins. In the Arizona game I recorded dump-ins in the same way as Controlled Entries Against (based on the side of the ice they dump the puck in). I found problems with that as sometimes the other team would Chip & Chase against (say) Nikitin, placing the puck behind him and trying to beat him in a race for the puck in the O-zone. Other times they would attack Clendening’s side but dump the puck hard around the boards so again the battle for the puck was with Nikitin.

    This game I tried coding based on who ended up trying to retrieve the puck after a Chip or a Dump but found that was also unsatisfactory to me. The line between a Chip and a Dump is sometimes pretty blurry and it failed to capture some nice plays, such as Reinhart standing up a forward at the blue line, causing him to chip the puck in, then leading Oesterle to recover.

    Because I’m still trying to figure out the Dump-ins against, I didn’t tweet them out.

  106. raventalon40 says:

    godot10: One can put Nugent-Hopkins with Hall.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins
    Pouliot, McDavid
    Maroon, Draisaitl

    Now go find a new set of right wings.

    If we are trading value-for-value (aka Eberle for something else like D) then I wouldn’t mind keeping Yakupov at that price point.

  107. who says:

    leadfarmer: You are not just trading eberle for Hamonic.You are trading Eberle for a pretty good defensemen signed on for a very good contract, cap space and a roster spot.I’m guessing Eberle is being moved to the highest bidder and a truck full of money is going to end up at Lucic’s house.

    At this point I would bet it takes Eberle plus to acquire Hamonic. I know we all fixate on Hamonic but if you take Snow at his word it will cost a dman and we don’t have one to spare unless it is Fayne and that is not a good trade for New York. Maybe Eberle plus Fayne with salary retained would do it but I have my doubts.

  108. frjohnk says:

    Interesting that the verbal coming from the GM’s meeting is that media not from Edmonton suggest that it is RNH that will be the one gone for a Dman and not EBERLE.

    While as fans, if one of the 3 Austins are sold for a Dman, EBERLE is the guy most would pick to put on the table.

    But it takes two to tango and the verbal is that if a rival GM is looking at one of the Austins and is offering up a very good defenseman, they would want RNH and not EBERLE plus pick/prospect.

  109. Bank Shot says:

    Adam Wu: It is precisely because the Oilers tanked too hard for Hall that the subsequent years of failure occurred. They tossed all the veterans they needed to shelter and groom their young talent, and they blew up the D corps they have never been able to fix since.

    Things weren’t helped by poor decisions afterwards, but this was the root of the rot.

    Which is yet another reason why there actually isn’t anything wrong at all with the draft lottery system. Tanking, when you aren’t already horrible, results in you torpedoing your own ability to redevelop. It is its own punishment.

    They didn’t actually tank for Hall. They got him through old fashioned incompetence. They tanked for the Nuge and Yakupov however and have basically been punished by the hockey gods for doing so.

    We struggled through two absolute seasons of crap for two players that definitely aren’t franchise cornerstones.

    Its even more galling that down the road Calgary found two better building blocks in the 4th round.

    So much wasted time spent in the cellar for so little return at the end of the day. McDavid makes up for most of it, but it clearly underlines how badly the Oilers need a home run from day two of the draft .

  110. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot: They didn’t actually tank for Hall. They got him through old fashioned incompetence. They tanked for the Nuge and Yakupov however and have basically been punished by the hockey gods for doing so.

    We struggled through two absolute seasons of crap for two players that definitely aren’t franchise cornerstones.

    Its even more galling that down the road Calgary found two better building blocks in the 4th round.

    So much wasted time spent in the cellar for so little return at the end of the day. McDavid makes up for most of it, but it clearly underlines how badly the Oilers need a home run from day two of the draft .

    January 2010, they pulled the chute. Technically, they did tank after mid-season. It was even in Oil Change, Katz suggesting and then the rest of the management group adopting.

  111. Washingtron says:

    @Lowetide, slight sidebar here, well, total topic hijack really, but you mention the Oil don’t gift your network with interviews as is their right. I’ve always been confused why that is. They are literally allowed to just freeze out the media? It’s just a control the message type of thing from them? I hear a lot more positivity, even in the darkest of times, from your station than I do from their official media partner. You’d think they’d want more outlets like yours reporting. Using a monopoly on information to raise prices on commercial air time all seems vaguely illegal. That being said, I literally have no idea what I’m talking about.

    Keep up the good work!

  112. Alpine says:

    Bank Shot: They didn’t actually tank for Hall. They got him through old fashioned incompetence. They tanked for the Nuge and Yakupov however and have basically been punished by the hockey gods for doing so.

    We struggled through two absolute seasons of crap for two players that definitely aren’t franchise cornerstones.

    Its even more galling that down the road Calgary found two better building blocks in the 4th round.

    So much wasted time spent in the cellar for so little return at the end of the day. McDavid makes up for most of it, but it clearly underlines how badly the Oilers need a home run from day two of the draft .

    I definitely don’t think they tanked specifically for Yakupov that season, have to think they would have liked just being in the top five to have a shot at Murray or Rielly or Dumba or whoever. Same logic for 2011 imo. Just get a top five pick (RNH or Couturier or Larsson) to fill a long term need.

  113. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    frjohnk:
    Interesting that the verbal coming from the GM’s meeting is that media not from Edmonton suggest that it is RNH that will be the one gone for a Dman and not EBERLE.

    While as fans, if one of the 3 Austins are sold for a Dman, EBERLE is the guy most would pick to put on the table.

    But it takes two to tango and the verbal is that if a rival GM is looking at one of the Austins and is offering up a very good defenseman, they would want RNH and not EBERLE plus pick/prospect.

    We need D. If RNH is the only way to get quality then we have to consider it. I’m an RNH fan, I am. I have his 8bit Oilers Nation shirt on right now.

    We simply need to acknowledge that if we trade RNH for D then we need to fill a hole at C. Frans Nielsen for example to share the load, or we package him in a multi player deal with NYI and acquire one of Nelson/Lee/Strome to go along with Hamonic.

    Moving RNH doesn’t have to be the end of the world, so long as management understands that it creates a hole that needs to be filled.

  114. frjohnk says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: We need D.If RNH is the only way to get quality then we have to consider it.I’m an RNH fan, I am.I have his 8bit Oilers Nation shirt on right now.

    We simply need to acknowledge that if we trade RNH for D then we need to fill a hole at C.Frans Nielsen for example to share the load, or we package him in a multi player deal with NYI and acquire one of Nelson/Lee/Strome to go along with Hamonic.

    Moving RNH doesn’t have to be the end of the world, so long as management understands that it creates a hole that needs to be filled.

    Yup totally agree.

    Things are still a bit muddy on who/what could be heading out for help on the back end.

    Should be a bit clearer a month from now when the lottery takes place.

    Trigger on a major trade will be pulled by the draft/ on draft day.

    Also sounds like Klefbom may not make it back this season.

  115. wheatnoil says:

    RJ2016:
    Charlie O’Connor at BroadStreet Hockey had been tracking controlled/uncontrolled zone exits/zone entries all season. He’s got a bunch of definitions that seem pretty useful.Perhaps you can see what he’s done as a guide.

    Charlie is my favorite non-Oiler blogger.

    Thanks for the heads up on this!

    I looked him up and there’s some things he’s doing that I quite like. I think my system will be some merge of Bruce, Jen LC and Charlie O’Connor.

  116. Lowetide says:

    Ty Rimmer called up to Bakersfield from Norfolk.

  117. stener says:

    Top trade partners in my eyes are NYI, the ducks and the blues.

    I think the best idea is to swap firsts, unless you plan to trade Ebs AND Nuge.

    Lets say the team we swap firsts with is picking in the 20-25 range. What does moving up 20 spots in the first round get you? Could you negotiate an upper-end RHD (Hamonic, unsigned Vatanen or Shatt) and get a prospect or second round pick? Do you have to add a live body to make it work? Griffin Reinhart? Jordan Oesterle?

    Anyways, I think if you address one of the RHD holes with the first pick, while still getting a good prospect, you’re building in a sustainable manner.

    That way, you can chase Demers hard in free agency, you don’t tie up $3.5M of the cap in a 19 year old and you’re still free to deal one of the $6M men (Eberle is my preference) if you strike out in free agency.

    Matriculating talent in the AHL should be just as big of a goal as addressing our current defense. The lack of talent in the system is shocking.

  118. Lowetide says:

    Washingtron:
    @Lowetide, slight sidebar here, well, total topic hijack really, but you mention the Oil don’t gift your network with interviews as is their right.I’ve always been confused why that is.They are literally allowed to just freeze out the media?It’s just a control the message type of thing from them?I hear a lot more positivity, even in the darkest of times, from your station than I do from their official media partner.You’d think they’d want more outlets like yours reporting.Using a monopoly on information to raise prices on commercial air time all seems vaguely illegal.That being said, I literally have no idea what I’m talking about.

    Keep up the good work!

    Oilers make management and players available to TSN1260, but not to my show. I emailed requesting a guest, and was told the Oilers have an established relationship with other shows on the station and are satisfied with those relationships.

  119. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Ty Rimmer called up to Bakersfield from Norfolk.

    Does E2D2 get a cup of coffee?

    These days I have a hard time telegraphing the Oilers moves.

  120. dustrock says:

    Woodguy,

    BTW did a little digging on HF Boards Blues (yeah I know) on Pietrangelo – despite his stats seemingly lower the last season or two, the posters there don’t seem to take any issue with him and compare him favorably to Shattenkirk. I.e. “don’t pay Shattenkirk Pietrangelo money, he’s not worth it”.

    One person specifically mentioned Pietrangelo’s transition game and zone exits, saying he’s probably one of the best in the entire NHL at these skills, but they don’t always show up well on a stats sheet.

    People said when he went down for a month that even guys as talented as Parayko and Shattenkirk couldn’t move the puck as well through the neutral zone.

    Does it sound like this is someone the Oilers might want to use?

  121. Woodguy says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy,

    BTW did a little digging on HF Boards Blues (yeah I know) on Pietrangelo – despite his stats seemingly lower the last season or two, the posters there don’t seem to take any issue with him and compare him favorably to Shattenkirk.I.e. “don’t pay Shattenkirk Pietrangelo money, he’s not worth it”.

    One person specifically mentioned Pietrangelo’s transition game and zone exits, saying he’s probably one of the best in the entire NHL at these skills, but they don’t always show up well on a stats sheet.

    People said when he went down for a month that even guys as talented as Parayko and Shattenkirk couldn’t move the puck as well through the neutral zone.

    Does it sound like this is someone the Oilers might want to use?

    He may well be.

  122. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Et tu, Bruce?

    Not at all. Just making a backhanded slap at some of the groupthink on this subject.

  123. Fog of Warts says:

    But if you didn’t finish last and win the lottery, you can’t do it again for another five years.

    Oh the stupidity, if it actually means what he appears to have written.

    On this formula, every team that has won the lottery over the past five seasons (and continues to suck—against all probability) is drawn right back into DFL tank mode.

    Plus it makes very little difference in the Hall/Seguin years or the Yak/meh/meh/meh years. Even in the generational/Jack years, it has less bite than the league desires.

    And then when generational/meh/meh/meh year finally roles around (every 15 to 20 years), you’re right back to an embarrassing tank battle with actually finishing absolutely DFL even more important to certain parties than it used to be.

    It’s this kind of brilliance that makes the GTA what we know and love.

    Here’s an amazing idea. Why don’t they make this about winning?

    After picking 1st, you can’t pick again in the top three until you’ve (A) made the playoffs, or (B) won a total of 80 games since making the first selection (two passable seasons, or three crap seasons, or four craptastic seasons).

    Note: I don’t have time to refine the envelope, so this is just an idea, not math.

  124. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    You asked for where the LHD for the Oilers would land using my table of metrics (which is by no means complete or even proven useful at this point)

    I had to expand the sample to 200 Dmen (from 188) so the TOI could include Davidson.

    Remember that my tables only include RHD so I have no idea of their overall or total rank via the tables if it included LHD too.

    Here’s what I got.

    Total score:

    Davidson 997 – near the top of 2-2.5 pairing Dmen, top of 3rd.

    Klefbom 876 – around 10th for 1-1.5 pairing Dmen (around Larsson and Carlson)

    Sekera 681 – around 17th for 1-1.5 pairing Dmen (right next to Petry and Hamonic)

    Ference 274 – lower than any score of any RHD in the sample

    Nurse 182 – Ummmm. yeah.

    We need to forgive Nurse some of this because he should have never been anywhere near 1st pair, but some it still makes me uneasy.

    Nurse scored low in all 7 categories, but was truly abysmal in 2:

    HDSCA/CA – Ratio of shot attempts that become High Danger Scoring Chances – 4th Worst in entire league (scored a 4)

    Pts/60 – 5v5 pts/60 – .23pts/60 was the worst in the entire league. (scored a 1)

    CA/60Rel – how does the team’s shot attempts against when he’s on the ice stack up against his team mates – 19th worst in the NHL

    GoalsForON – GoalsForOFF – Does the team score more with him on the ice or off? 21st worst in the NHL

    CF/60Rel – how does the team’s shot attempts for when he’s on the ice stack up against team mates -43

    RelSCF% – What is the ratio of Scoring Chances For/Against when he’s on the ice – 45

    FA/CA – Fenwick/Corsi – how many shots attempts get blocked – 49

  125. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: January 2010, they pulled the chute. Technically, they did tank after mid-season. It was even in Oil Change, Katz suggesting and then the rest of the management group adopting.

    And we’ve been tanking ever since, seems like.

    I still remember November 2009, personally taking a fair amount of shit & abuse in this comments section and other places for having the temerity to enjoy the five-game road trip that resulted in ten points, a.k.a. “JDD’s Miracle Run”. Lots of folks were ahead of the curve in terms of actively calling for a tank job that management ultimately adopted a couple months later. By then of course that 5-game winning streak had dissolved into an instant 7-game losing streak (and 20 of the next 21 as I recall) as the Oilers did indeed comfortably finish DFL by a dozen points.

    I understood the rationale of the tank then & now, but I wish the days of even needing to think about it were in the rear view instead of still being front & centre in the here & now. Enough already.

  126. Psyche says:

    Lowetide,

    I am surprised that TSN1260 doesn’t have one person who deals with the Oilers’ communications/PR rep to negotiate which players or staff appear as guests on which shows.

    Frankly, that’s an unsatisfactory and biased response from the Oilers in regards to guests on your show.

  127. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    frjohnk,

    You asked for where the LHD for the Oilers would land using my table of metrics (which is by no means complete or even proven useful at this point)

    I had to expand the sample to 200 Dmen (from 188) so the TOI could include Davidson.

    Remember that my tables only include RHD so I have no idea of their overall or total rank via the tables if it included LHD too.

    Here’s what I got.

    Total score:

    Davidson 997 – near the top of 2-2.5 pairing Dmen, top of 3rd.

    Klefbom 876 – around 10th for 1-1.5 pairing Dmen (around Larsson and Carlson)

    Sekera 681 – around 17th for 1-1.5 pairing Dmen (right next to Petry and Hamonic)

    Ference 274 – lower than any score of any RHD in the sample

    Nurse 182 – Ummmm. yeah.

    We need to forgive Nurse some of this because he should have never been anywhere near 1st pair, but some it still makes me uneasy.

    Nurse scored low in all 7 categories, but was truly abysmal in 2:

    HDSCA/CA – Ratio of shot attempts that become High Danger Scoring Chances – 4th Worst in entire league (scored a 4)

    Pts/60 – 5v5 pts/60 – .23pts/60 was the worst in the entire league.(scored a 1)

    CA/60Rel – how does the team’s shot attempts against when he’s on the ice stack up against his team mates – 19th worst in the NHL

    GoalsForON – GoalsForOFF – Does the team score more with him on the ice or off? 21st worst in the NHL

    CF/60Rel – how does the team’s shot attempts for when he’s on the ice stack up against team mates-43

    RelSCF% – What is the ratio of Scoring Chances For/Against when he’s on the ice – 45

    FA/CA – Fenwick/Corsi – how many shots attempts get blocked – 49

    thanks.

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