WHERE WERE YOU WHEN I NEEDED YOU?

The Edmonton Oilers of Todd McLellan finally passed the 2014-15 Eakins-MacTavish-Nelson train, in G73. There is nothing to brag about, but it is a hurdle cleared. We can talk about injury, about disappointment, about wayward power plays, but the team has in fact improved season over season. The goal differential has been improved (halved), the Bettman games under .500 have gone from 20 to 10. The actual won-loss has improved from -33 to -17, season over season (with nine games to go). It isn’t much, but it is something.

WHEN DOES THIS END? YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 5-4-0
  • Oilers after 73 in 2014-15: 20-40-13, 53 points (-76 GD)
  • Oilers after 73 in 2015-16: 28-38-7, 63 points (-39 GD)

Edmonton posted 62 points a year ago, going 24-44-14. From here to the end of the season, Todd Nelson brought them in 4-4-1. If Todd McLellan can do the same—and that is a heavy task with all the injuries to the blue—the club would finish 32-42-8, 72 points. That would be the highest total since Tom Renney’s final year. The Oilers are not tanking, as has been suggested online, as they are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Sekera—Fayne continues their solid run, I honestly didn’t notice Fayne that much and the TOI reflects it. Sekera had an assist, three shots on goal and was minus two. Fayne was minus one, had two blocks and I like him a ton without the puck on his stick. Fayne, probably due to his previous experience in New Jersey, does very little of the outlet passing. This pairing has found something that works, hope we see them together next year (we won’t).
  • Oesterle—Reinhart had a solid evening, I paid special attention to them (like them both as a fan, no idea if they will have productive careers. Both have issues). Each man moved the puck well to my eye, although gaining possession in open-ice scrums was an adventure for both players. Reinhart was plus one with six hits, Oesterle had two assists, was plus two, played 23 minutes and battled extremely well. If they are the first callups next season, Edmonton should have nine or ten competent blue to start the year. Reinhart took a vicious slash in the third, and he played the kind of physical game the Oilers would no doubt like to see every night.
  • Nurse—Clendening were chaos incorporated. Absolutely fed at even strength (Nurse was 3-4 against Stastny, 1-6 against Backes), Nurse had the only high-danger scoring chance among defense, was minus one, had a block, a giveaway, takeaway and played a lot (18:07, No. 3 among blue) compared to Clendening (11:41). Clendening was not good in possession, but did have some success in moving the puck, and he damn near set up Hall in the third on a dandy jump into the play. Definitely the third pairing to my eye, I wonder if we see Nurse—Reinhart at some point.

reinhart capture dec

  • Todd McLellan: “I think Griff has been pretty solid since he’s been back. I think he’s played well since he’s been back here. We see him being more aggressive, more assertive, making good outlet passes. I also think he has a real good partner right now. That partner is helping him out a lot. They’re a good pair.” Source

CENTER, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

  • Mark Letestu had what might have been his best game with the Oilers. 2-1-3, plus 2, 41 percent in the faceoff circle and he skated miles. On his first goal it took a minute to register. Righty scoring and it wasn’t Eberle? Good for him, glad he had that night at home.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a fantastic night to my eye, 47 percent possession with Korpikoski and Yakupov—while playing against Captain Backes and his flying elbows. What a tit that guy is, hope the Oilers sign him. Two goals, four shots, 50 percent faceoffs. Yes! I assume Chiarelli missed the entire thing while scouting a USHL game.
  • Leon Draisaitl had a tough night, taking two early penalties (one was a bad call, which was a theme on the evening). Scored a lovely goal, his 18th on the season, and was the only Oiler to go -3 on the evening.
  • Connor McDavid was astounding last night, this is a game I will remember a long time. Two assists, four shots, three takeaways and, despite being 27 percent on the dot, I thought he was brilliant. Man he can anticipate, steal pucks, wheel, just a stunning hockey player.

INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Two: Connor McDavid
  • One: Taylor Hall, Iiro Pakarinen, Jordan Eberle, Darnell Nurse

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Lauri Korpikoski and Nail Yakupov played with the Nuge, and although they didn’t play a lot—this was the No. 3 line—the results were positive. Korpikoski didn’t hit the scoresheet, but didn’t bleed out either in possession. Yakupov had two assists—a major offensive this year for the Russian—and was a going concern all night. He is such an unusual player, drives opponents to distraction. He had one play (I believe against Pietrangelo) where he looked like a flying Wallenda, gained his balance awkwardly, and skated away while the defenseman tried not to kill himself when disconnecting from NY. It was a hilarious moment.
  • Taylor Hall and Iiro Pakarinen battled the Stastny line along with Leon, and it was an inconsistent evening. Hall had a goal, three shots and two giveaways—about perfect in terms of reflecting overall effectiveness. Had a giant chance when Clendening couldn’t shovel the pass to him for an easy marker (or what would have been). Pakarinen is a game rooster, not enough skill to play this high but I bet you $100 McLellan loves him. Had an assist and now has 10 points on the year.
  • Matt Hendricks and Zack Kassian had interesting evenings. Hendricks got an assist in nine minutes work (EN goal, very unselfish) and about five minutes earlier almost got killed by a damned fool. Also made a ghastly giveaway that was not in character. Kassian made a dandy inside move in the waning moments of the game and almost cashed, it was a beauty. Real skill play. Other than that, he interrupted some plays and was a physical player all night.
  • Patrick Maroon and Jordan Eberle lost the possession battle with Connor McDavid but it was an exciting evening all the same. Maroon played well with the puck, and had a really strong assist on the Nuge’s first goal (PP). Got another assist on 93’s second goal of the night (also PP). Eberle had some nice moments but was kept off the scoresheet—incredible, looking back on the game. He drove into the offensive goal several times, made good decisions in the offensive zone and was overall effective. Unfair that he didn’t get a point.

NAILING DOWN THE DEADLINE

yakupov draft capture

  • Elliotte Friedman: Sounds like a few other teams tried to test the Oilers’ patience with Nail Yakupov at the deadline. They found Chiarelli has a price in mind and wasn’t willing to go beneath it. There were rumours about the Montreal Canadiens’ interest, but it doesn’t appear as if the Canadiens were too interested. Source

Encouraging on some level, we knew he was somewhat in play and I do think the Oilers will deal him in summer. I think the better play is to have him come back for the final $2.5 million season and pump those numbers. If Edmonton is convinced he is not a long term answer, and I do believe we are here, then doing the Sam Pollock (pump value) is the right thing to do. There are teams in the NHL with very few signed forwards for next year, Edmonton’s round peg will no doubt find a home and then find his way.

lucic capture

 

  • Elliotte Friedman: If the Los Angeles Kings can’t sign Milan Lucic, we’ve all assumed the Vancouver Canucks will make a major run. Nick Kypreos threw out the Edmonton Oilers has a chaser, too. A lot of history between Lucic and Peter Chiarelli. Source

We have talked about Lucic to Edmonton a lot on this blog, because it makes perfect sense if you have read Peter Chiarelli’s verbal from day one. It also makes sense if the Oilers plan to trade one of their $6 million dollar men for a less expensive defender (ala Eberle for Hamonic). If you send away Eberle and Nikita Nikitin, and add Lucic and Hamonic, well that is a pretty good day. We wait.

hoffs capture

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show today, make sure to chime in with questions and comments. TSN1260, beginning at 10:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Darcy did fantastic work a year ago in sussing out goalies, has he done it again with RH blue? We will chat with him this morning.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. The OK had a tough weekend, but they are closer to getting into the playoffs as the season winds down. Corey will explain this morning.
  • Tom Lynn, Veritas Hockey. NHL players may have close to 50 new jobs with the next expansion, and that will impact decisions starting this summer. Are Euro players better off coming back to North America to showcase their skills for new clubs—even if it means AHL time?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Expansion, draft lottery, the cap implications on rosters and possible trades—specifically in regard to the Oilers and their summer.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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152 Responses to "WHERE WERE YOU WHEN I NEEDED YOU?"

  1. Moncton Mounties says:

    I’m a long time reader, first time poster, thanks everyone for the posts, makes the day at work better.

    I wanted to throw a name out there for the Oilers RW if they move any wingers and need to backfill: Bud Holloway (Montreal). He’s rugged, puts up numbers, might come cheap after his season playing for the Ice Caps and a 10 minute cup of coffee with the big team. He’s UFA and a western kid so he may soothe anyone who insists on a Canadian birth certificate to have the requisite fire to play. (looking at you Don Cherry)

    After 4 years of reading this blog, I broke my silence to shill for this guy. I should get my head examined. Keep up the good work LT and all the posters who make this place worth visiting.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    ***SPAM ALERT***

    We interrupt this comment section to bring you a link to my latest post: “Can Chiarelli Make the Oilers Great Again?” A few thoughts about next season.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/03/can-peter-chiarelli-make-oilers-great/

  3. slopitch says:

    Any chance you can post the times of the guests? I have a busy morning but want to hear the chat with Darcy. Perhaps I can adjust my coffee break 🙂

  4. Lowetide says:

    Moncton Mounties:
    I’m a long time reader, first time poster, thanks everyone for the posts, makes the day at work better.

    I wanted to throw a name out there for the Oilers RW if they move any wingers and need to backfill: Bud Holloway (Montreal).He’s rugged, puts up numbers, might come cheap after his season playing for the Ice Caps and a 10 minute cup of coffee with the big team.He’s UFA and a western kid so he may soothe anyone who insists on a Canadian birth certificate to have the requisite fire to play.(looking at you Don Cherry)

    After 4 years of reading this blog, I broke my silence to shill for this guy.I should get my head examined.Keep up the good work LT and all the posters who make this place worth visiting.

    Ha! I had him on a list of possible pickups years ago (maybe 2010) along with Oscar Moller,they were both LAK prospects at the time iirc. Hell yes, that kind of investment would make perfect sense. Can he skate?

  5. Lowetide says:

    slopitch:
    Any chance you can post the times of the guests? I have a busy morning but want to hear the chat with Darcy. Perhaps I can adjust my coffee break :)

    10:20 or so, usually ends up being 10:22.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Every male near my age (and some not near my age I’m sure) feel head of heels in love with Susanna Hoffs when they first saw the Walk like an Egyptian video.

    Good memory.

  7. OilClog says:

    Stamkos, Hamonic, Demers.

    Dream big.

    6 goals, none from Eberle.

    Never would win a Nuge trade, but winning a Eberle trade is at least breakevenable.. Yes that’s a word today.

  8. Norman Greenbaum says:

    It sure is fun watching McDavid turn those Dmen inside out. Their legs are going like Bambi’s on the icy pond. Shame that Caramel says he’s going to suck next year, or something. 😉

    The wife said it reminded her of when she taught a brash young British soldier how to two-step for the first time, many years ago. Me being tall and gangly, coupled to a complete lack of natural rhythm, was just underlines the analogy.

    McDavid should buy a fresh jock and give it to the guy he just undressed every game.

    As I’ve said before, the light at the end of the tunnel is, in fact, McDavid’s after-burner skates.

  9. dustrock says:

    Nice to see the PP cash and even better, look dynamic against one of the top PK teams in the league and a team that for years has had its way with us.

    Thought Talbot was pretty sharp considering 4 were scored on him.

  10. sumaclab says:

    I like Jordan Osterle. A player is there. He moves the puck well. Skates well and has some nice offensive instincts. Paired with a bigger dman like Gryba or Rheinhart makes sense. I have to say Lowetide that we need to stop slathering at the mouth at the thought of what ifs. Like What if we had Hamonic. Or What if we had Demers. Its a mistake to look past the good work that we are seeing from young men like Davidson and Osterle. WE as a group have been so underwhelmed by our development system that we have failed to see the positives in several players that have come through our system and go ne onto have success elsewhere. Cogliano for example. Chris Vande Velde. Petry.
    It seems we have a tendancy to undervalue what we have in our organization.
    Player development as we know is not a straight line. Example. Rheinhart. We need to stop placing expectations that are out of line with reality.
    The fan base expects 20 year olds to perform at 27 year old levels. My goodness RNH gets hammered and he is only 22. LD only 20. McDavid 19. Our top 3 centermen have less than 400 games experience between them.
    I think 2 things Chiarelli is obligated to do to before he makes any moves this summer. A full evaluation must done of all the Oilers prospects in the system and how moving forward they fit into the big picture. And secondly he needs to be absolutely certain that before he trades any of our top 6 forwards that he is certain that the player he is getting back fits the type of game the Oilers play and the type of game we play in the Western Conference.

  11. 82 says:

    Quick question, with the possibility of an expansion draft on the horizon does it change the likelihood of the Oilers 1st ’16 being traded? The pick likely results in an impact player that could slot right into the roster, but they wouldn’t require protecting. The difference between one of the old core and the 1st, could be the difference between leaving a borderline top 6 forward (Maroon or similar) at risk in the expansion draft.

  12. Woogie63 says:

    Teams with top 30 scoring centres (NHL.com)

    3 – LAK
    2- Buff, Phil, Col, Dal, Bos, Pitt, Wash, SJS
    1 – 11 teams (including Oilers)

    ——————————————-

    With a healthy Nuge/McDavid and Driasaitl this will be an obvious area of significant improvement

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Nurse is really in an interesting spot right now. If he doesn’t take a big step forward next season and Chia does what I think is the bare minimum for success this offseason, which is sign Demers and trade for Hamonic, then I think there is a pretty good chance Nurse doesn’t make this team at the start of next season. Don’t believe me? Who does he beat out?
    Kbomb Demers
    Davidson Hamonic
    Sekera Fayne

    And even if the above doesn’t happen or Fayne gets traded he still has to beat the internal competition for the spot.

    I’m glad to see Nuge get some easier lifting and rock it.

  14. Ducey says:

    The fancies were not kind to Leon and Patrick “Whata” Maroon but they looked good. Leon seems to have found his legs again and is so strong on the puck. Maroon looked a little like goodDustinPenner (that’s a word today too).

    Matheson pointed out that Yak had his first assist since November….

    I really like Oesterle. They are developing some D in the minors who have low panic levels. Lord Denning still panics too much.

    Reinhart isn’t quite ready yet, but you can see its coming.

    And not to sound like Drew Remenda (I often mute the TV when he goes into lecture mode) but a big shot from the point would sure help the PP. We saw that last night.

    I enjoyed that game last night!

  15. HiddenDarts says:

    Helluva game last night. I don’t think I’ve ever used so much profanity watching one game! Seriously, the lost 5-2 lead was just a giant amount of stress. If they would have lost, you can bet this blog would have been on fire with the “trade everybody” rhetoric.

    Still, goals are fun. Powerplay goals are a stranger we need to see more of. This is the kind of game the NHL should be pushing for – crazy scoring, end to end action, physicality.

    Instead, we get the Coach’s Challenge model of NHL hockey. Boo! And boo to the refs as well. What a absolute joke. Just how anti-Oiler are these people?

  16. OilClog says:

    leadfarmer:
    Nurse is really in an interesting spot right now.If he doesn’t take a big step forward next season and Chia does what I think is the bare minimum for success this offseason, which is sign Demers and trade for Hamonic, then I think there is a pretty good chance Nurse doesn’t make this team at the start of next season.Don’t believe me?Who does he beat out?
    KbombDemers
    Davidson Hamonic
    SekeraFayne

    And even if the above doesn’t happen or Fayne gets traded he still has to beat the internal competition for the spot.

    I’m glad to see Nuge get some easier lifting and rock it.

    Fayne will not play ahead of Nurse next season, nor will Sekera be on the 3rd pair.

    Klef/Hamonic
    Sekera/Demers
    Davidson/GrybaorPardy/Osterle/Nurse/Reinhart

  17. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    OilClog:
    Stamkos, Hamonic, Demers.

    Dream big.

    6 goals, none from Eberle.

    Never would win a Nuge trade, but winning a Eberle trade is at least breakevenable.. Yes that’s a word today.

    I’m dreaming bigger! Stamkos, Hamonic, Demers… and Matthews!
    (Suck it Maple Leafs!)

    And to top it off, the Oilers are on pace for 71 points (my sour guess for Hunter’s Death March Challenge). After 10 years of the Oilers losing, the chance to (tie for a) win Hunter’s Death March seems like the closest thing to winning that I can associate with this team. I’m far too excited.

  18. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Maroon and Kassian are perfect 3rd line wingers. But neither can keep up with Connor, he needs a fast big bodied winger who can cash…thank god we have one in Pouliot! Chia better not trade him this summer, I miss him like most of you missed Nuge.

    I’m not sure how everyone else took it, but Tmac made it sound like a right winger is leaving this summer. He said Nuge would definitely be centering Hall and Drai.

  19. Norman Greenbaum says:

    OilClog: 6 goals, none from Eberle.

    Would you care to elaborate on this comment.

    Eberle scored against Preds and Nuge didn’t. So yesterday, we should have traded Nuge and not Ebs?

  20. SudburyOil says:

    OilClog: Fayne will not play ahead of Nurse next season, nor will Sekera be on the 3rd pair.

    Klef/Hamonic
    Sekera/Demers
    Davidson/GrybaorPardy/Osterle/Nurse/Reinhart

    This would be ideal. A solid top 6 D and depth to cover for injuries. Also gives Nurse and Reinhart motivational development time in OKC, something beneficial for both.

  21. GCW_69 says:

    The bar should be the pace of Nelson’s oilers – 72 points. TMac is now trending to 75 points, so improvement. That’s good. Given the difference in goaltending, it looks like very little improvement elsewhere. That’s bad.

    Take what you will from that, but Eakins oilers were on a fifty point pace, which is crazy bad. It’s so bad using that as part of the bar seems like seeing the bat way to low.

  22. russ99 says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    Maroon and Kassian are perfect 3rd line wingers. But neither can keep up with Connor, he needs a fast big bodied winger who can cash…thank god we have one in Pouliot! Chia better not trade him this summer, I miss him like most of you missed Nuge.

    I’m not sure how everyone else took it, but Tmac made it sound like a right winger is leaving this summer. He said Nuge would definitely be centering Hall and Drai.

    The problem with Pouliot is that he’s not as good on the wall or in the crease as a Lucic or even a Maroon, and that’s the role we need out of McDavid’s big winger in McLellan’s system.

    Add in the dumb penalties, and I see Chia moving him out for the Lucic-type. I don’t see Lucic signing here, though unless it’s a ridiculous overpay.

  23. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy:
    Every male near my age (and some not near my age I’m sure) feel head of heels in love with Susanna Hoffs when they first saw the Walk like an Egyptian video.

    Good memory.

    In my mid 30s, her shifty eyed glance did things to my nethers as a young man, that I didn’t quite understand.

  24. who says:

    82:
    Quick question, with the possibility of an expansion draft on the horizon does it change the likelihood of the Oilers 1st ’16 being traded? The pick likely results in an impact player that could slot right into the roster, but they wouldn’t require protecting. The difference between one of the old core and the 1st, could be the difference between leaving a borderline top 6 forward (Maroon or similar) at risk in the expansion draft.

    This is a very good point.. I don’t think you can trade that pick for help now (righty dman) because that player will have to be protected next summer or the summer after. You are much better off trading an existing player for that help now if you want to protect as many assets as possible. This expansion may actually increase the value of draft picks and first year pros and further decrease the value of veteran players for the next few years.

  25. russ99 says:

    Interesting comment my McLellan about Nuge on the Hall line…

    We could go into next year with:

    Hall – Nuge – Drai
    (New Big) – McDavid – Eberle/Yak/Stamkos/Laine
    Maroon – Letestu – Kassian/(New 2-way)
    Hendricks – (new C) – Sallinen

    Sekera – Hamonic
    Klefbom – Demers
    Davidson – Reinhart
    Nurse – (new big #7 D)

    Talbot
    (new backup)

  26. digger50 says:

    The rise of Davidson and now Osterle – perhaps we are undervaluing our own players? How can you not when the team is losing? Perhaps you can have a very good player(s) and still have a losing team.

    I think this blog helps me understand this. I moved from the Oilers Nation complaint department over to understanding that we do have players here. Comparing how players are doing relative to their draft class really helps. (Yak, Nuge) Even strength points vs PP. (Hall vs so many others)

    Just some feedback.

  27. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy:
    Every male near my age (and some not near my age I’m sure) feel head of heels in love with Susanna Hoffs when they first saw the Walk like an Egyptian video.

    Good memory.

    And Joan Jett, Chrissie Hynde, early Pat Benatar.

  28. John Chambers says:

    82:
    Quick question, with the possibility of an expansion draft on the horizon does it change the likelihood of the Oilers 1st ’16 being traded? The pick likely results in an impact player that could slot right into the roster, but they wouldn’t require protecting. The difference between one of the old core and the 1st, could be the difference between leaving a borderline top 6 forward (Maroon or similar) at risk in the expansion draft.

    Teams can only protect 7 F and 3 D or 8 skaters total.

    For Edm we already have to protect Klef, Davy, and Nurse, so if we acquire Hamonic we either have to be prepared to let one go or protect 8 skaters.

    So our top 8 becomes:
    McD, Hall, Drai, Nuge, Klef, Hamonic, Nurse, and Davy. This assumes an Eberle for Hamonic trade.

    This now exposes:
    Pouliot, Maroon, Kassian, Yakupov, Sekara, and possibly Reinhart.

    The good news is that we won’t be enduring the second half of Sekara’s contract. We should also hold onto Yak as bait.

  29. digger50 says:

    I would like to pose a question:

    Presently the Oilers are looking at 70 points. If they did not change one single player this off season, how many points do you feel the Oilers can obtain 16/17 season? Stick with the 50 man roster, but healthy, how many points are they good for?

    If they change “only a couple” KEY pieces, how many points are they good for?

    If they make significant changes, (7-8 players within budget and reason, not fantasy) would they improve further? (The risk being the new group needs to learn each other, gel etc…)

  30. Klima's_Bucket says:

    russ99: I don’t see Lucic signing here, though unless it’s a ridiculous overpay.

    Or if Edmonton gets some new “sick jerseys.”

  31. slopitch says:

    Lowetide: 10:20 or so, usually ends up being 10:22.

    Thanks!

  32. leadfarmer says:

    OilClog: Fayne will not play ahead of Nurse next season, nor will Sekera be on the 3rd pair.

    Klef/Hamonic
    Sekera/Demers
    Davidson/GrybaorPardy/Osterle/Nurse/Reinhart

    My point was pairings and not time on ice. The odds of you having all 6 available to play the season is nil. While Nurse is better overall then Fayne I don’t think he can play the right side better than Fayne. I still walk away from the Fayne contract if I can but I don’t think that is possible.
    So I’m fine with
    Klefbom. Demers
    Sekera. Hamonic
    Davidson Fayne

    And as my previous point said if you get rid of Fayne I’m not sure if Nurse is better than the internal competition which includes Reinhart and if they choose a dman with their top 5 pick.

  33. slopitch says:

    digger50:
    I would like to pose a question:

    Presently the Oilers are looking at 70 points. If they did not change one single player this off season, how many points do you feel the Oilers can obtain 16/17 season? Stick with the 50 man roster, but healthy, how many points are they good for?

    If they change “only a couple” KEY pieces, how many points are they good for?

    If they make significant changes, (7-8 players within budget and reason, not fantasy) would they improve further? (The risk being the new group needs to learn each other, gel etc…)

    If they get 2 dmen and Klefbom and Nuge are healthy we may see the (excuse the pun it’s a startup term) hockey stick growth.

  34. TsuDhoNimh says:

    That Parayko guy looked damn good last night. Didn’t he also rate highly in Woodguy’s last blog?

  35. frjohnk says:

    John Chambers: Teams can only protect 7 F and 3 D or 8 skaters total.

    For Edm we already have to protect Klef, Davy, and Nurse, so if we acquire Hamonic we either have to be prepared to let one go or protect 8 skaters.

    So our top 8 becomes:
    McD, Hall, Drai, Nuge, Klef, Hamonic, Nurse, and Davy. This assumes an Eberle for Hamonic trade.

    This now exposes:
    Pouliot, Maroon, Kassian, Yakupov, Sekara, and possibly Reinhart.

    The good news is that we won’t be enduring the second half of Sekara’s contract. We should also hold onto Yak as bait.

    Still muddy on who gets protected and who doesnt but Dreger said today on 1260.

    Daly gave hiim two examples on who gets protected and doesnt.
    – Nylander who played 37 games last year in the AHL, was a rookie pro last year, would need to be protected if there was an expansion draft next year.

    -Ehlers is a rookie pro this year, would not need to be protected if there was an expansion draft next year.

    Nurse and McDavid fall under the same umbrella as Ehlers

  36. 82 says:

    John Chambers,

    Thanks for the response. I beleive that first and second year pros are exempt from the draft, meaning that McDavid and Nurse don’t require protection. Nor would our 1st (ex. Laine). So my questions was if you’d look to trade one of Eberle, RNH, or Hall (for fair value of course) before the 1st, which likely adds at top 6 forward next year not requiring exp. draft protection?

  37. rickithebear says:

    digger50: Perhaps you can have a very good player(s) and still have a losing team.

    Jesus Man.

    Measuring a player by team results is blaming a player for play that they are not on for 60-70% of the time.

    It is like referencing Toews as the Con Smythe winner in the 2010 cup win being a leader or winner.
    The guy was a minus player at even.
    Who the F……… votes a minus player the Conn Smythe.
    Cup win was driven by the individual play of
    Campbell
    Hossa
    Sharp
    Seabrook
    Hjarlmasson
    Veersteeg
    bolland
    during even.
    75% of the play.

  38. rickithebear says:

    82:
    John Chambers,

    Thanks for the response. I beleive that first and second year pros are exempt from the draft, meaning that McDavid and Nurse don’t require protection. Nor would our 1st (ex. Laine). So my questions was if you’d look to trade one of Eberle, RNH, or Hall (for fair value of course) before the 1st, which likely adds at top 6 forward next year not requiring exp. draft protection?

    Might want to look at the math of 25% of cap exposed.

  39. G Money says:

    TsuDhoNimh:
    That Parayko guy looked damn good last night.Didn’t he also rate highly in Woodguy’s last blog?

    Check out where he sits on the Blues possession metrics:

    http://i.imgur.com/DIr1nwR.png

    (Also note that Paajarvi guy)

  40. Skeeziks says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    Would Kreider from the NYR fit this bill?

  41. jm363561 says:

    dustrock:
    Nice to see the PP cash and even better, look dynamic against one of the top PK teams in the league and a team that for years has had its way with us.
    ===========
    Agree. Full marks to TMac for his cunning plan – one goal in the last 350 or so strategically inept power plays completely lulled the Blues into a false sense of security. He then utterly confuses them by throwing out a couple of tactically competent units. The man is a genius.

    Liked Reinhart’s game.

  42. frjohnk says:

    digger50: Presently the Oilers are looking at 70 points. If they did not change one single player this off season, how many points do you feel the Oilers can obtain 16/17 season? Stick with the 50 man roster, but healthy, how many points are they good for?

    Ive been trying to calculate this but its pretty rough.

    Last week we were at the point where in the last 2 minutes, in 30 of our 45 losses we were either tied or down by 1 goal ( Im just counting the games that were tied and we ended up losing in OT and shootout)

    I did some calculations last week that if the Oilers had league average injuries ( same guys get injuries but just not as long) they would have had anywhere from 4 to 9 more points depending on the calculation.

    But that is just me doing witchcraft on my computer, nobody should take it for gospel. Its just a rough calculation that is very very limited.

  43. D says:

    How awesome would it be if the Oil kept Nail’s $2.5 Mil next year because no suitors came along, and it turns out to be his breakout year where things finally start to click for him. One can always hope (Yakupov fan here).

  44. 82 says:

    rickithebear,

    With a $74mn cap and 10 -12 roster players exposed I think they get to $18.5mn pretty easily. Especially if Fayne is still here.

  45. nelson88 says:

    No to Lucic. Maroon at 25% ish of his likely cap hit is a much smarter play.

    No doubt Chia would trade RNH if he gets the absolute right deal but the man has seen the value of the Krejci’s and Bergeron’s of this world and won’t make that trade lightly.

    Only caught the first period last night but really liked the chemistry Yak and RNH had going. Major boost if they can build on that.

  46. frjohnk says:

    Next time somebody bashes Taylor Hall, LT should make them listen to Woodguy go off on Hall haters.

    And always have Woodguy drop the mic.

    Hall haters got nothing.

    Nothing.

  47. frjohnk says:

    D:
    How awesome would it be if the Oil kept Nail’s $2.5 Mil next year because no suitors came along, and it turns out to be his breakout year where things finally start to click for him.One can always hope (Yakupov fan here).

    If Oilers keep Yak and they run a good offensive center with Yak, I have no problem believing Yak would be a solid contributer. Ive run Yak’s 5 on 5 numbers with Gagner,Roy,McDavid( which 45% of TOI since 2012) and his points/60 is 1.98. Thats reallygood top 6 scoring.

    But Im not sure he makes it to fall training camp and Im pretty sure I’ll be dissapointed in the return.

  48. GCW_69 says:

    nelson88:
    No to Lucic. Maroon at 25% ish of his likely cap hit is a much smarter play.

    No doubt Chia would trade RNH if he gets the absolute right deal but the man has seen the value of the Krejci’s and Bergeron’s of this world and won’t make that trade lightly.

    Only caught the first period last night but really liked the chemistry Yak and RNH had going. Major boost if they can build on that.

    Lucic only makes sense now if they trade Hall for a defender. Hall is probably the only chip that brings back a legit number one.

  49. jake70 says:

    Whiskey in the Jar – No Metallica version?? lol

  50. bendelson says:

    Woodguy:
    Every male near my age (and some not near my age I’m sure) feel head of heels in love with Susanna Hoffs when they first saw the Walk like an Egyptian video.

    Good memory.

    PhrankLee: And Joan Jett, Chrissie Hynde, early Pat Benatar.

    I’d be remiss if I didn’t add Deborah Harry to the that list, though I am moving the dial into the late 70’s/early 80’s…

    Videodrome anybody?

  51. Ducey says:

    GCW_69:
    The bar should be the pace of Nelson’s oilers – 72 points.TMac is now trending to 75 points, so improvement.That’s good.Given the difference in goaltending, it looks like very little improvement elsewhere. That’s bad.

    Take what you will from that, but Eakins oilers were on a fifty point pace, which is crazy bad.It’s so bad using that as part of the bar seems like seeing the bat way to low.

    I see this a lot. The Great Nelson.

    Lets look at what he did:

    W-L-OTL goal differential

    Dec 1-1-0 0
    January 5-6-1 -2
    February 5-7-1 -15
    March 5-5-3 -5
    April 1-4-1 -15

    17-23-6 = 40 points with a -37 in 46 games. That’s 71 points for a full season but the goal differential for a full season would be -66. TMc is -39 over 73 games (on pace for -43 over the season).

    So an improvement of 23 goals if TMc stays on pace.

    Under Nelson the Oilers squeaked out wins in the SO and by a goal (7 of 17 of Nelson’s wins were in OT) and an amazing 5 in the shootout (where no one really “scores”). They got gonged a lot in the losses.

    I’d be interested to see what the Corgis of Nelson and McLelland would say.

  52. McSorley33 says:

    Tough to even imagine unicorns if RNH, Hall and Draisaitl are on the same line.

    Add in the likely price for Hamonic and you have the possible makings of a dud 3rd line.

    I am not sure Tmac and Chia share the same dream of 3 scoring lines as most in here.

    Suspect our 3rd line will be of the ‘checking’ variety….

    Further, nice to see Yak get to use his laser beam shot on the PP…..novel concept.

  53. McSorley33 says:

    Ducey,

    I am not partaking in the debate…..but Nelson had goaltending with sub .900 save %…..

    And coincidence or not seemed to have a key to unlock Lander.

    Talbot looks god like with a .917

  54. russ99 says:

    McSorley33:
    Tough to even imagine unicorns if RNH, Hall and Draisaitl are on the same line.

    Add in the likely price for Hamonic and you have the possible makings of a dud 3rd line.

    I am not sure Tmac and Chia share the same dream of 3 scoring lines as most in here.

    Suspect our 3rd line will be of the ‘checking’ variety….

    Further, nice to see Yak get to use his laser beam shot on the PP…..novel concept.

    I said this three years ago and I still believe it today: Until we have a 2-way third line who contribute on offense and can defend against the toughs, no playoffs.

    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian is fairly close, but needs to be better on offense (Maroon or Pouliot would help) and have weaknesses on defense.

    Not especially like a Moreau – Marchant/Murray – Pisani line.

    We have to beat out at least 2 and likely 3 Pacific teams to get that that playoff spot.

    That and how McLellan likes to play hockey pretty much preclude unicorns, except at home against lesser opposition.

  55. Little Poteet says:

    Ducey,

    so 12 of Nelson’s 17 wins happened after regulation time ended? And he coached to 6 OT/Shootout Losses. With the 3 on 3 OT format this year, where overtime is basically a coin flip, it would be fair to think that of the 18 games which went to OT, 9 would be wins this year. A record of 14-23-9 isnt’ as flattering, and is on pace for more like 66 points than 71 points.
    Comparing Nelson’s Oilers to this year’s version doesn’t seem fair to me. Lots of Nelson’s team’s points came in OT, which is now totally different this year. Not comparable. Would be be hailing Nelson as a great coach if he was on pace for another 60 something point season instead of a 70 something point season thanks to so many OT points?
    I liked Nelson as a coach. He was fantastic at unlocking his AHL guys in the NHL. Davidson looked great last year in the NHL under him too. But I don’t think we can argue that Nelson’s results in the standings are good, or that much better than the last full year of Eakins.

  56. Little Poteet says:

    SJ off tomorrow while Charlotte starts a 3-in-3 in Rockford. A Condors win and Charlotte loss moves Bakersfield into a playoff spot.— Ryan Holt (@CondorsHolty) March 17, 2016

    Go Condors!

  57. dustrock says:

    I like Oesterle, but come on. He’s not close to Davidson. Davidson was LT’s mythic new Pisani for the millennials.

    The OIlers need more D scoring. We are far, far, so very far behind most of the league in D contributions from D.

    And now is the time to sell high on Nurse, who is not going to help in this department. I love Nurse, but he is a better skating Jason Smith.

  58. StixMalone says:

    Assuming that 2 teams are coming for the expansion draft how many players can a team lose? If more than one ( I am assuming 2 ) can it be only one forward and defender or any combination? Not sure if this was already answered Thanks…..

  59. frjohnk says:

    StixMalone:
    Assuming that 2 teams are coming for the expansion draft how many players can a team lose? If more than one ( I am assuming 2 ) can it be only one forward and defender or any combination? Thanks…..

    1 expansion team, Oilers lose 1 player
    2 expansion teams, Oilers lose 2 players

    does not matter position

  60. TsuDhoNimh says:

    G Money: Check out where he sits on the Blues possession metrics:

    http://i.imgur.com/DIr1nwR.png

    (Also note that Paajarvi guy)

    Should I assume that mountain of blue is a good thing?

  61. fifthcartel says:

    dustrock,

    The way people talk about Jason Smiith makes it sound like he was a much better player than he actually was. I don’t think Jason Smith would be as effective in 2016 compared to 2006.

    I don’t want to worry about Nurse, but i’d be lying if said I wasn’t already.

  62. StixMalone says:

    frjohnk: 1 expansion team, Oilers lose 1 player
    2 expansion teams, Oilers lose 2 players

    does not matter position

    So can Las Vegas ( theoretical ) take two players from us and Quebec ( theoretical) can’t pick from us or does each team have to get one player from every team?

  63. Adam Wu says:

    I was thinking about the complaints of the Oilers winning too many lotteries and did some digging to see if the Oilers current run of futility is actually that anomalous.

    Thusly, some historical perspective:

    Chicago Blackhawks

    2002-3 79pts 0.481, GD -19
    2003-4 59pts 0.360, GD -71, change from prior -52
    2004-5 LOCKOUT
    2005-6 65pts 0.396, GD -74, change from prior -3
    2006-7 71pts 0.433, GD -57, change from prior +17
    2007-8 88pts 0.537, GD +4, change from prior +61

    2008-9 104pts
    2009-10 112 pts, Stanley Cup

    Pittsburgh Penguins

    2001-2 69pts, 0.421, GD -51
    2002-3 65pts, 0.396, GD -66, change from prior -5
    2003-4 58pts, 0.353, GD -113, change from prior -47
    2004-5 LOCKOUT
    2005-6 58pts, 0.353, GD -72, change from prior +41

    2006-7 105pts
    2007-8 102pts
    2008-9 99pts Stanley Cup

    Bettman points and 82game seasons all fully in play during this period.

    Compare to Oilers since 2009-10 (the team missed playoffs in 3 previous years, but were above 0.500 and in the playoff hunt in two of them. Chicago had a similar and longer and more futile run of missing the playoffs prior to 2002-3 punctuated by one anomalous good year)

    2009-10 62pts, 0.378, GD -70
    2010-11 62pts, 0.378, GD -76, change from prior -6
    2011-12 74pts, 0.451, GD -27, change from prior +49
    2012-13 45pts, 0.469, GD -9 (-15 prorated to 82g), change from prior +12
    2013-14 67pts, 0.409, GD -67, change from prior -52
    2014-15 62pts, 0.378, GD -85, change from prior -18

    this year so far, 0.431, GD -39 (-44 prorated to 82g) pro-rated change from prior +41

    Conclusions:

    The Oilers “historic” run of futility is only slightly longer than very similar recent runs of futility by two teams considered now to be Elite (or in the case of the Penguins recently elite and now downtrending).
    The lost year to lockout make Chicago and Pittsburgh’s runs of futility appear shorter than they actually are.

    The Oilers, arguably, have never gotten as bad as the Penguins got during the depths of their run.

    For both Chicago and Pittsburgh, the rise to elite status was preceded by an improvement in GD without a noticeable improvement in points of standings. This stands to reason as improvements that turn multi-goal losses into one goal losses will not make any difference in points or standings, but a marginal improvement from there that turns one-goal losses into one-goal wins results in a significant and rapid improvement in points and standings.

    The Penguins did not improve in points or standings during their Generational Player’s rookie season, but exploded the following year.

    Comparing this to the situation we find ourselves in right now, there is grounds of optimism!

    However, dampening that we see:

    It took the Penguins longer than 3 years after getting Crosby (ie longer than the length of an ELC today) to win the Cup.

    The Penguins only managed to win one Cup with their generational talent, partly due to failure to properly manage the cap.

    And finally:

    In this comparison, the Oilers actually looked like they were in the verge of turning it around in 2011-12 and 2012-13, only to regress all the way back down in the next two seasons (Godot, I believe, has a theory about the reasons for this…)

    Despite all that we say about the failures of management prior to 2012-13, the team was on track to turn it around FASTER than both Chicago and Pittsburgh did, so the only point in time wherein management incompetence actually made a measureable empirical difference in overall results is from the offseason of 2013 onwards….

  64. frjohnk says:

    StixMalone: So can Las Vegas ( theoretical ) take two players from us and Quebec ( theoretical) can’t pick from us or does each team have to get one player from every team?

    each expansion team gets to pick 1 player from each team

  65. Adam Wu says:

    Another interesting observation from the historical record I posted above is that the team made a significant turn north in 2011-12, gained 2 spots in the standings, but won the lottery for 1OV on sheer luck (but in what was even then considered a very weak draft year and in hindsight even weaker than thought).

    And yet the team gets accused of “tanking”…

  66. Adam Wu says:

    McSorley33:
    Tough to even imagine unicorns if RNH, Hall and Draisaitl are on the same line.

    Add in the likely price for Hamonic and you have the possible makings of a dud 3rd line.

    I am not sure Tmac and Chia share the same dream of 3 scoring lines as most in here.

    Suspect our 3rd line will be of the ‘checking’ variety….

    Further, nice to see Yak get to use his laser beam shot on the PP…..novel concept.

    It depends on the makeup of that 3rd line.

    If you have the pieces, you can still shuffle to produce 3 scoring lines OR 2 extreme scoring lines plus a checking line, particularly if you get more players like RNH who can both score and check.

    Thus it becomes an matter of flexibility. You can convert (compress) your unicorns into a full-on unicorn calvary charge when the need arises.

  67. StixMalone says:

    frjohnk: each expansion team gets to pick 1 player from each team

    Thank you.

  68. godot10 says:

    russ99: The problem with Pouliot is that he’s not as good on the wall or in the crease as a Lucic or even a Maroon, and that’s the role we need out of McDavid’s big winger in McLellan’s system.

    Add in the dumb penalties, and I see Chia moving him out for the Lucic-type. I don’t see Lucic signing here, though unless it’s a ridiculous overpay.

    I disagree. Pouliot is an extremely good match more McDavid. McDavid is a rush player, and Pouliot has enough speed and skill to support McDavid on the rush. He is also a good forechecker, and is decent on the cycle. Get a right shot Pouliot to replace Eberle when he is traded.

    McDavid’s scoring rate and Corsi went down when Pouliot got hurt.

    Most of us want to keep Hall, so the 2nd left wing has to be on a reasonable contract, and Pouliot is. Signing Lucic means Hall is on his last Oilers’ contract. One cannot devote so much money to the wing in long term (and Lucic will insist on a NMC) It would be possible for two years during McDavid’s entry level. But Lucic means only two more season of Hall.

    The available cap space should be primarily devoted to fixing the defense.

  69. Магия 10 says:

    If NMCs are excluded from the expansion draft and use up zero exclusions there will be real disparity in with some teams shielding a deep pile of D,

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    if an expansion team can choose the 4th defenceman from 6 teams in the league, they’ll dress a better defence than EDM does on night 1

    Ellis/Ekholm, Myers/Enstrom, Manson/Fowler/Vatanen, Bouwmeester/Gunnarsson

  71. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    if an expansion team can choose the 4th defenceman from 6 teams in the league, they’ll dress a better defence than EDM does on night 1

    Ellis/Ekholm, Myers/Enstrom, Manson/Fowler/Vatanen, Bouwmeester/Gunnarsson

    But those teams don’t have to expose a 4th D if they don’t want to. If they opt to go the 8 skaters route, they can protect their D better. For a team like Nashville that would make a lot of sense. They’re quite light upfront so might as well protect their strength. Winnipeg and Anaheim are screwed though because they’ve got too many good forwards to go with the D. If a team like Anaheim was smart they’d expose someone on a downward trend (i.e. Kesler) to keep some of the D.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    AnOmYnOuS1,

    I don’t think protecting more than 3 d is an option. Either 7 skaters and both goalies or 8 skaters and one goalie. At least they were smart enough that an expansion team will have a better d corpse than the oilers. There is going to be massive amount of trades as teams shuffle assets they will lose for nothing trying to get something for them.

    You can also add Brodin/Dumba to the above list. Those teams are going to be selling dmen for picks or better forwards so they don’t lose a good asset for nothing

  73. frjohnk says:

    AnOmYnOuS1: But those teams don’t have to expose a 4th D if they don’t want to. If they opt to go the 8 skaters route, they can protect their D better. For a team like Nashville that would make a lot of sense. They’re quite light upfront so might as well protect their strength. Winnipeg and Anaheim are screwed though because they’ve got too many good forwards to go with the D. If a team like Anaheim was smart they’d expose someone on a downward trend (i.e. Kesler) to keep some of the D.

    If Nashville protects 8 skaters, they would protect 4 D men and only 4 of their forwards.

    So out of the forwards,
    Johanssen
    Forsberg
    Smith
    Wilson
    Carnkok
    Neal

    they probably lose Wilson or Carnkok, or both with 2 expansion teams

    I think in Nashvilles case it would be better to trade one of their D men for a comparable valued forward.

    If they trade Ellis/Ekholm for a good young forward

    they would protect Weber, Josi and 1 of Ellis/Eckholm on D
    all the forwards I listed above PLUS the good young forward that Ellis/Eckholm would fetch.

    in this case, the Preds are losing a lesser player

    Protecting 3D 7F which is 10 skaters is better than protecting 8 skaters.

  74. John Chambers says:

    leadfarmer,

    Like I say exposing Sekara will offer needed cap relief right around the time of the expansion draft.

    Looks like we’d stand to lose one of Sekara or Reinhart.

  75. rickithebear says:

    Ducey: April 1-4-1 -15
    17-23-6 = 40 points with a -37 in 46 games. That’s 71 points for a full season but the goal differential for a full season would be -66. TMc is -39 over 73 games (on pace for -43 over the season).

    Might want to look at roster for this period.

  76. Norman Greenbaum says:

    frjohnk,

    Actually, I don’t think they’d protect Weber, for the same reason people won’t trade for him on here.

    That massive contract set against the declining play that comes with old age. Unless you roll the dice and hope he does a Jagr.

    It’s a potential get out of jail free card.

  77. John Chambers says:

    frjohnk,

    This may also imply that a team like Nsh might look to trade a D like Ekholm or Ellis for a forward in order to be less exposed during the expansion draft.

    For the Oilers however we’re already needing to protect Davy and, Klef, so there’s a limit to how many defensemen we can acquire.

    From this lens the Reinhart trade was a huge mistake.

  78. rickithebear says:

    Our No moment clause players are:
    Ference
    Sekera
    Talbot

    if the league allows teams to ask if a NMC player is willing to be exposed to Exp draft.
    Suspect Sekera and ference will have to be on protected list!

  79. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers:
    leadfarmer,

    Like I say exposing Sekara will offer needed cap relief right around the time of the expansion draft.

    Looks like we’d stand to lose one of Sekara or Reinhart.

    Can’t lose Sekera until 2020. Yet another reason I hate NMC/NTC for anyone that is not a franchise player

  80. Ryan says:

    frjohnk:
    Next time somebody bashes Taylor Hall, LT should make them listen to Woodguy go off on Hall haters.

    And always have Woodguy drop the mic.

    Hall haters got nothing.

    Nothing.

    Lmao. I heard Woodguy on the Lowetide show for the first time.

    First thoughts are that he was an awesome guest. On top of his thoughtful insight, he actually has a great voice for radio. I thought he was someone from TSN when I first heard him. His voice projects very well.

    Second thoughts… It’s completely surreal hearing someone’s voice after reading their blog comments for the past seven years. He sure sounds like a friendlier guy than I’ve attributed to him being. He is a self-proclaimed dink after all. 🙂

  81. rickithebear says:

    Sekera and Ference on the protected list leads to:

    Hall
    RNH
    Eberle
    Draisatl

    Sekera
    Ference
    KLefbom

    Talbot

    Leaving these players exposed:
    Pouliot
    Maroon
    Kassian
    Letestu
    Yakupov
    Hendricks
    Pakarinen
    Lander
    korpikoski
    Khaira
    Slepyshev
    Yakimov
    moroz

    Fayne
    Rheinhart
    Oesterle
    Simpson
    Musil
    Laleggia

    Boissoit
    Laurekainen

  82. leadfarmer says:

    Norman Greenbaum,

    Trading Weber puts another team in control of their cap recapture penalty. They can push him to retire early and punish Nashville with 30 mil in recapture penalties. Now they are not a cap team so it might not be that big of a deal for them but I doubt Weber gets moved in his lifetime

  83. frjohnk says:

    Ryan: Lmao.I heard Woodguy on the Lowetide show for the first time.

    First thoughts are that he was an awesome guest. On top of his thoughtful insight, he actually has a great voice for radio.I thought he was someone from TSN when I first heard him.His voice projects very well.

    Second thoughts… It’s completely surreal hearing someone’s voice after reading their blog comments for the past seven years.He sure sounds like a friendly guy than I’ve attributed to him.He is a self-proclaimed dink after all.

    Yup. Woodguy is the goods.

    Woodguy on the radio with LT is like Korpikoski on the ice with McDavid.

    OK, maybe that is stretching it a bit.

    Korpikoski with Nuge.

    Hey, its better than Hordichuk with Nuge 🙂

    JK, great job on the radio Woodguy. And you too LT as always.

  84. John Chambers says:

    leadfarmer,

    I don’t understand. Does a NMC apply in an expansion draft?

  85. godot10 says:

    There is no expansion draft till summer 2017 at the earliest. Ference’s contract will have expired.

    The expansion draft certainly tilts the balance to using a six-million-dollar man to find a D rather than the 2016 1st, but the value of the 2016 1st is also now worth more in a trade because of the expansion draft.

  86. rickithebear says:

    I just realized Weidman has NMC.

    Gaudreau
    Monohan
    Backlund
    Frolik

    Wideman
    Brodie
    Giordano
    Hamilton

    Ortio??

  87. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers,

    It’s not finalized but I would assume the NHLPA would throw a hissy fit if their NMC NTC were moved to an expansion team.

    I guess I was wrong above. You can only protect one goalie. If you want to protect your 4th dmen then you only get to protect 8 skaters total instead of the 7 forwards and 3 dmen

  88. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Ference is long retired cause the draft isn’t for another year. I can’t wait to see how teams try to wiggle out of losing assets. Players will be moved for picks so they are not lost for nothing, some guys will be signed to higher contracts and are offered up to the draft so 25% of the salary is at risk.

  89. vinotintazo says:

    rickithebear: Wideman
    Brodie
    Giordano
    Hamilton

    wideman’s contract expires before 2017 summer so he doesnt count I believe. ditto Ference

  90. leadfarmer says:

    I’m sure teams will have under the table deals with their UFA that they won’t officially re sign with their team until after the expansion draft so they don’t have to spend a protected spot on them.

  91. treevojo says:

    According to general fanager in 2017 there are 51 nmc’s league wide.

    I would assume the nhlpa and nhl will agree to honour those contracts.

    I would think simple ntc’s would not apply and be treated the same as a player being put on waivers since they are not actually being traded.

    Oilers nmc’s include Talbot and Sekera

    Chicago has the most with 7

  92. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    Ference is long retired cause the draft isn’t for another year.I can’t wait to see how teams try to wiggle out of losing assets.Players will be moved for picks so they are not lost for nothing, some guys will be signed to higher contracts and are offered up to the draft so 25% of the salary is at risk.

    Interesting how that will work.
    If the Oilers can not buy Ference out because he is still recovering from his hip this summer and they put him on LTIR for next year, he would still be an Oiler.
    Lets say the expansion draft is June 24th, 2017 and the league says you have to protect players on NMC, Ference’s contract runs until June 30th, 2017.

    Would that mean we have to protect Ference? Or I wonder if guys who are heading to UFA do not need to be protected. I would believe its most likely the latter, but watch ,Because Oilers, its the former.

    NHL has alot of things to iron out.

  93. leadfarmer says:

    I do wonder how they handle the limited NTC. If they make that count as a protected spot there is going to be some role players with NTC getting shuffled so they don’t take up a spot.

  94. Truth says:

    I’m rather uninformed when it comes to the expansion draft. What compensation do teams get for their players being picked? It is only fair that they get a chance to replace the player plucked from their 50 man list, no?

  95. bendelson says:

    frjohnk: JK, great job on the radio Woodguy. And you too LT as always.

    They are good together aren’t they?
    So… Who’s zooming who?

  96. treevojo says:

    frjohnk,

    The last pay period would be mid-April. I don’t think Ference would prolong his retirement speech for much after that. It sounds as though he may already have it written.

  97. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    I do wonder how they handle the limited NTC.If they make that count as a protected spot there is going to be some role players with NTC getting shuffled so they don’t take up a spot.

    no trade clause have no impact on expansion draft,

    no movement clause is what is causing the wrinkle

  98. treevojo says:

    Truth,

    The compensation is $500 million divided by 30.

  99. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    There is no way they let that happen. Could you imagine you are the Wild and have to keep an expiring Vanek contract meaning you are keeping Koivu, Pominville, Parise, Vanek, Suter. That leaves you automatically keeping only 3 d meaning you are losing Brodin or Dumba or Coyle.

  100. anonymous says:

    No way are nmc going to count. They’ll be giving them out this summer like candy if so.

    The wording in the cba seems to indicate that they are protection against trades and demotions. Says nothing about expansion.

  101. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    What does it take to label someone as a forward or Dman?

    Because if we pick up Hamonic I think we should run Davidson on the wing for the last 10 games next year. I think he’d be a great winger….

  102. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    No movement clause is more restrictive than NTC so I don’t see how that’s causing an issue. You can burry a NTC in the minors freeing a roster spot. NMC you are stuck with.

  103. Woodguy says:

    Thanks for the kinds words all.

    LT is def. zooming me. He’s a pro’s pro and is great at making his guests feel comfortable.

    Now if you read my posts in my own voice, I bet I don’t come across as negatively.

    Its great that maybe people won’t think I’m always an asshole anymore.

    Just a dink.

    A dink is a happy-go-lucky asshole.

    Hockey is fun dammit.

    Let’s have some fun out there.

  104. leadfarmer says:

    treevojo:
    Truth,

    The compensation is $500 million divided by 30.

    That’s why they are expanding and not trying to save struggling franchises. Forbes values the panthers at 180 million and Coyotes at 220 million. They could save them and let them move but then they wouldn’t get the 500 million per team expansion fee. If they fold it’s mostly someone else’s money.

  105. treevojo says:

    anonymous,

    What does the section on expansion say in the cba? It is my understanding that it is hasn’t been written. The nhlpa will agree to a cap on the amount of nmc’s handed out per team before they will agree to have their current members with nmc’s be moved.

  106. treevojo says:

    leadfarmer,

    That quote was just in response to the question asked about compensation for losing a player to an expansion team.

    That is the compensation.

  107. LoDog says:

    treevojo:
    Truth,

    The compensation is $500 million divided by 30.

    I don’t know why they even bother for 16 million a piece. Further dilute the game and make the product even worse?

    This could backfire on them if they go ahead.

  108. Ducey says:

    LoDog: I don’t know why they even bother for 16 million a piece.

    That’s dollars. Sixteen million dollars.

    I can totally understand why they would bother.

  109. Магия 10 says:

    treevojo:
    anonymous,

    What does the section on expansion say in the cba?It is my understanding that it is hasn’t been written. The nhlpa will agree to a cap on the amount of nmc’s handed out per team before they will agree to have their current members with nmc’s be moved.

    NMC’s are gonna move unless they wave their NMC. There is some talk of a maximum amount of cap that can be protected. If a poor expensive player on LTIR closes to retirement waives NMC he’s not going to be claimed and he’s doing his team a solid. *ahem* @Ferknuckle.

    NMC’s have to be exempted, but counting them in protection limits is where the disparities arise..
    If they have to be counted as protected some teams lose a top 3 D.
    If they are not counted as protected some teams might be protecting 5 top 3 D.

  110. AnOmYnOuS1 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    What does it take to label someone as a forward or Dman?

    Because if we pick up Hamonic I think we should run Davidson on the wing for the last 10 games next year.I think he’d be a great winger….

    *slow clap* Well done sir, well done. If SJ can keep changing what Burns is listed as why can’t we? I feel like there will be a games played threshold though…

  111. hunter1909 says:

    Good game last night. The Blues are going through their annual swoon but normally it’s bitch slapping go home out there.

    McLellan/Chiarelli are correcting the faults in some of the players, replacing many in the process. Sekera is a really good defenceman, and Nurse and Reinhart hold great potential to anyone with the long view in mind.

    The first time poster from 2-3 days ago said things best. The team is improving, and next year…well…I’ll personally enjoy the last 9 games then the lottery, before turning back into a pumpkin for the rest of summer.

    Meanwhile…

  112. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Official Oilers 2016 St Patrick’s Day Death March Update for 17.3.16

    Oilers on pace for a 71 point finish.

    The contestants on 71 points are:

    TOML
    HeatTreaterJoe
    Jake70

    Over 200 Death March Contestants have predicted more than 70 points.

    Meanwhile, only 4 Death March Contestants have predicted less. They are:

    69 points – KnightTown
    60 points – Kitchener
    22 points – Romulus Apothleosis
    1 point – Kris11

    Friendly Advice: Drink responsibly today. And every day.

  113. John Chambers says:

    treevojo:
    According to general fanager in 2017 there are 51 nmc’s league wide.

    I would assume the nhlpa and nhl will agree to honour those contracts.

    I would think simple ntc’s would not apply and be treated the same as a playerbeing put on waivers since they are not actually being traded.

    Oilers nmc’s include Talbot and Sekera

    Chicago has the most with 7

    Seems unfair that Chicago wouldn’t be as exposed in an expansion draft given the nature of their contracts.

    I cant foresee a scenario where the Hawks get off the hook while the majority of other teams lose their top talent.

  114. rickithebear says:

    godot10:
    There is no expansion draft till summer 2017 at the earliest.Ference’s contract will have expired.

    The expansion draft certainly tilts the balance to using a six-million-dollar man to find a D rather than the 2016 1st, but the value of the 2016 1st is also now worth more in a trade because of the expansion draft.

    All expansion drafts are run before the Amateur draft.
    To allow the teams to understand their drafted rosters.
    That is end of june.
    The contracts do not end until july 1.

  115. treevojo says:

    John Chambers,
    I don’t understand what isn’t fair. Chicago in 2017 have 3 d, 3 f and 1 goalie with nmc’s. It just means they have to pick four more forwards to protect in the 1 scenario. If they chose option b and want to protect more then 3 d then they are limited to 2 more players on top of their nmc’s.

  116. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ducey: That’s dollars.Sixteen million dollars.

    I can totally understand why they would bother.

    Yeah, lose a couple of players, but you have $16 MM so you can go out and sign a Nikitin AND a Korpikoski to fill the gap.

  117. treevojo says:

    rickithebear,

    I am sure that is something which is easily resolved between the two sides. Considering that they are expiring contracts an expansion team would have little motivation to make a claim.

  118. Магия 10 says:

    treevojo:
    John Chambers,
    I don’t understand what isn’t fair. Chicago in 2017 have 3 d, 3 f and 1 goalie with nmc’s. It just means they have to pick four more forwards to protect in the 1 scenario. If they chose option b and want to protect more then 3 d then they are limited to 2 more players on top of their nmc’s.

    are you assuming that the nmc even count towards their protection limits. because teams with bad nmc contracts would be hurt by that. The rules *might* allow them to pick a full set of protected players over and above the NMC contracts. There is no Pollock there, But there is a Bowman.

    I don’t see how NMC’s can always count or never count, Some smart GM will craft some complicated consensus rule somewhere between those extremes that suits his team perfectly

  119. John Chambers says:

    treevojo:
    John Chambers,
    I don’t understand what isn’t fair. Chicago in 2017 have 3 d, 3 f and 1 goalie with nmc’s. It just means they have to pick four more forwards to protect in the 1 scenario. If they chose option b and want to protect more then 3 d then they are limited to 2 more players on top of their nmc’s.

    I see. So the NMC players are automatically included in the protected skaters list.

    I was assuming (wrongly) that a club could protect ten skaters in addition to the NMC contracts.

  120. Professor Q says:

    Do they (expansion teams choosing first) have to stay under the cap with their draft choices, or do they have flexibility?

  121. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    They just ask him to “retire” then before that happens. Although if they are serious about the expansion being competitive then you won’t be able to “bury” players in UFA. For example if you are Tampa you know you will be high on the list for goalie acquisition as you will be able to grab Bishop or Vasilevski but Tampa can claim that Bishop is an UFA and protect Vasilevski. Bishop can’t be drafted cause he has no contract. After the draft is done Tampa can finalize the contract that has been already agreed upon and voila they don’t lose either player.

  122. leadfarmer says:

    All these games that will be played to try and protect assets is another reason why we all should be glad we have Chia and not McTambolowe

  123. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    AnOmYnOuS1: *slow clap* Well done sir, well done. If SJ can keep changing what Burns is listed as why can’t we? I feel like there will be a games played threshold though…

    Thanks.

    It would be good to figure out what the formula is though. I mean, if we’re in the dumpster mid way through the year next year an winning isn’t an issue, I’d structure my players to make sure I keep the guys I want to keep.

    Do you list by position for healthy scratches? Because if so I’d put LB in the pressbox as a forward too for a few games.

  124. ChiliChunk says:

    hunter1909: Over 200 Death March Contestants have predicted more than 70 points.
    Meanwhile, only 4 Death March Contestants have predicted less. They are:
    69 points – KnightTown
    60 points – Kitchener
    22 points – Romulus Apothleosis
    1 point – Kris11

    I am surprised Vermitte did not predict 0 points. Disappointed really. Obviously it is all a charade and he is actually a closet Oilers fanboi.

  125. treevojo says:

    Магия 10,

    Yes. That is what I am assuming. It is what makes sense to me. To be able to protect potentially 11 players on top of nmc’s makes no sense to me. That means Stan could protect 18 players. Pretty sure that isn’t going to happen.

  126. Магия 10 says:

    treevojo:
    Магия 10,

    Yes. That is what I am assuming. It is what makes sense to me.To be able to protect potentially 11 players on top of nmc’s makes no sense to me. That means Stan could protect 18 players.Pretty sure that isn’t going to happen.

    and yet the way these guys think that is the default position. stan won’t argue for stan. every team with bad nmc’s that could lose a quality player will squak. and if they don’t have the guts to count nmc against the protected list stan wins, expansion team loses. it will take an overwhelming consensus to count every NMC.

    I don’t think counting all or no NMCs will fly. There will be a pollock in the process that sneaks in a compromise that suits his team to the T.

  127. rickithebear says:

    The discussion goes like this.
    Expansion!
    We talking bout expansion!

    NMC players in Expansion draft – Half the expansion revenue!

  128. frjohnk says:

    ChiliChunk: I am surprised Vermitte did not predict 0 points. Disappointed really. Obviously it is all a charade and he is actually a closet Oilers fanboi.

    On the day of Hunter1909’s ballot, Vermitte was still at the top of the hill yelling something about “Not trading everybody for OEL is a fireable offense for Chia”

    When the polls opened, Vermitte lit his hair on fair, and while still yelling, started to run down the hill. Poor Vermitte forgot to pull his pants up, ended up tripping and falling down the hill. He actually made it to the base of the voting station but he had the terrible tragedy of getting knocked out getting there. When Vermitte came to, he found out he lost his ballot. Still wanting to make his vote count, he grabbed a OEL hockey card and tried to put it into the ballot box. It wouldn’t fit, so Vermitte grabbed his Chia hockey card that had a big X on it and put that in.

    Hunter1909 said that Vermitte spoiled his vote.

    So Vermitte went back to the top of the hill.

  129. Jordan says:

    rickithebear: All expansion drafts are run before the Amateur draft.
    To allow the teams to understand their drafted rosters.
    That is end of june.
    The contracts do not end until july 1.

    The expansion draft would only include players who’s contracts continue into 2017-18. There’s no way the NHL or the NHLPA would require teams to protect players with NMCs who’s contracts would expire before they would need to play for the expansion team.

    Therefore, Ferenece should not need to be considered when it comes to NMCs on players. Only Seksy and GoalerBot.

    If you’re curious – go check out general fanager.

    Question – How many UFAs & GMs will be planning on signing 1 year deals this summer to avoid being taken in an expansion draft? Won’t that make for a very interesting off-season this and again in 2017, when you could have two years worth of UFAs available for purchase…

  130. treevojo says:

    Магия 10,

    Whatever the gms come up with not only has to fly with Gary bettman but also the nhlpa. Pretty sure neither side want to see this expansion team fail outright.

  131. Stelio Kontos says:

    frjohnk: On the day of Hunter1909’s ballot, Vermitte was still at the top of the hill yelling something about “Not trading everybody for OEL is a fireable offense for Chia”

    When the polls opened, Vermitte lit his hair on fair, and while still yelling, started to run down the hill.Poor Vermitte forgot to pull his pants up, ended up tripping and falling down the hill.He actually made it to the base of the voting station but he had the terrible tragedy of getting knocked out getting there.When Vermitte came to, he found out he lost his ballot.Still wanting to make his vote count, he grabbed a OEL hockey card and tried to put it into the ballot box.It wouldn’t fit, so Vermitte grabbed his Chia hockey card that had a big X on it and put that in.

    Hunter1909 said that Vermitte spoiled his vote.

    So Vermitte went back to the top of the hill.

    Thing I never got is why he wanted OEL, he shoots left.

  132. Магия 10 says:

    treevojo:
    Магия 10,

    Whatever the gms come up with not only has to fly with Gary bettman but also the nhlpa. Pretty sure neither side want to see this expansion team fail outright.

    and yet the past record on expansions is exactly the gms protecting themselves.

  133. Магия 10 says:

    Jordan: Question – How many UFAs & GMs will be planning on signing 1 year deals this summer to avoid being taken in an expansion draft? Won’t that make for a very interesting off-season this and again in 2017, when you could have two years worth of UFAs available for purchase…

    which is why any expansion draft rules ought to be in place before July 1 and even before the draft for planning purposes.

  134. Магия 10 says:

    Stelio Kontos: Thing I never got is why he wanted OEL, he shoots left.

    ~ another LD? now that’s a firing offense ~

  135. treevojo says:

    Jordan,

    Agreed

    This is going to be the most interesting off season as an oiler fan that I can remember. If there is an expansion team on the way in 2017 will only add to it. If it wasn’t for watching mcdavid break grown men’s ankles the regular season couldn’t end soon enough.

  136. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Jordan:

    Question – How many UFAs & GMs will be planning on signing 1 year deals this summer to avoid being taken in an expansion draft?Won’t that make for a very interesting off-season this and again in 2017, when you could have two years worth of UFAs available for purchase…

    People that are good enough to feel that they will be protected (say Lucic) won’t worry about it.

    People that are bad enough that they are certain they won’t be protected (say Gryba) will take as long a deal as they can get, because for all they know it will be their last deal. They will hope they don’t get moved to an expansion team, but if they do they might very well extend their career by a bunch of years and will use their piles of money to dry their tears.

    So I don’t think there will be too many people deliberately taking 1 year deals who could have otherwise taken 3 or 4 years.

  137. wheatnoil says:

    Jordan:
    Question – How many UFAs & GMs will be planning on signing 1 year deals this summer to avoid being taken in an expansion draft?Won’t that make for a very interesting off-season this and again in 2017, when you could have two years worth of UFAs available for purchase…

    I think the signings this summer will be the opposite. There will be a higher incentive to sign guys to two year contracts with the purpose of leaving them open in the expansion draft. If they are signed to one year contracts, then they don’t count as exposed (they need to expose 25% of their cap hit). So you build your roster this summer with knowledge that you’re going to leave one to two players open as bait next year, hoping the expansion team grabs them to help now instead of one of your B-level prospects who you have a more vested interest in (say a Reinhart or an Oesterle).

  138. treevojo says:

    Магия 10,

    I am not all that familiar with the past expansion drafts. The media has made it sound as though this one is a bit different. I am just quoting the information that they have released and using common sense. But you are right common sense and gms isn’t always used in the same sentence.

  139. bendelson says:

    So I noticed the other day that the Jays have an ambidextrous pitcher in the minor leagues.
    Now sure, it means significantly more in baseball, but… how long until we have a defenseman in the NHL with such skills?

  140. magneto says:

    Do you not think that the NHLPA will concede on the NMC issue, just due to the fact that they will be welcoming 100 (2x 50 man teams) new members?
    Seems like a good trade off, only 50 or so NMC’s in the expansion year

  141. hunter1909 says:

    frjohnk: On the day of Hunter1909’s ballot, Vermitte was still at the top of the hill yelling something about “Not trading everybody for OEL is a fireable offense for Chia”

    When the polls opened, Vermitte lit his hair on fair, and while still yelling, started to run down the hill.Poor Vermitte forgot to pull his pants up, ended up tripping and falling down the hill.He actually made it to the base of the voting station but he had the terrible tragedy of getting knocked out getting there.When Vermitte came to, he found out he lost his ballot.Still wanting to make his vote count, he grabbed a OEL hockey card and tried to put it into the ballot box.It wouldn’t fit, so Vermitte grabbed his Chia hockey card that had a big X on it and put that in.

    Hunter1909 said that Vermitte spoiled his vote.

    So Vermitte went back to the top of the hill.

    I have no recollection of that at all.

  142. hunter1909 says:

    Assuming the “Original 6” teams all have 100% Canadian content…

    If you like that can be doubled to the “Original 12” teams…

    If all the rest of the world matched this 2016 “Original 6/12” NHL…

    How many teams total would there be in today’s NHL?

  143. hags9k says:

    Pessimistic post alert.

    It’s going to be ugly around here if and when Demers signs elsewhere. A lot of us have been putting his name down in ink for next year…Not sure what the actual odds of him coming here would be, but I doubt they are good.

  144. frjohnk says:

    hags9k:
    Pessimistic post alert.

    It’s going to be ugly around here if and when Demers signs elsewhere.A lot of us have been putting his name down in ink for next year…Not sure what the actual odds of him coming here would be, but I doubt they are good.

    I think Dallas signs him.

    If they don’t offer him a contract, I’d be wondering why as their defense depth is not that great. (Klingberg is great offensively, but not the greatest defensively for RHS on their team)

  145. Ducey says:

    bendelson:
    So I noticed the other day that the Jays have an ambidextrous pitcher in the minor leagues.
    Now sure, it means significantly more in baseball, but… how long until we have a defenseman in the NHL with such skills?

    A long time. In fact, I can’t ever see a day when defensemen have to pitch.

  146. Магия 10 says:

    treevojo:
    Магия 10,

    I am not all that familiar with the past expansion drafts.The media has made it sound as though this one is a bit different.I am just quoting the information that they have released and using common sense. But you are right common sense and gms isn’t always used in the same sentence.

    Friedman:

    “does a player with a no-move clause count among the guys you have to protect? This is relevant because everyone is expecting Commissioner Gary Bettman to make any new team competitive. There will be no creation of patsies here.

    Let’s say you’ve got three no-move clauses. Must they be part of your protection list because they can’t be selected? If yes, it increases the risk of exposing more of your roster.”

    Friedman thinks that is the open question. Whether these are counted or not, he figures NMC wil lbe exempt. He doesn’t see the NHL going to the mattresses on that.

  147. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909:
    Assuming the “Original 6” teams all have 100% Canadian content…

    If you like that can be doubled to the “Original 12” teams…

    If all the rest of the world matched this 2016 “Original 6/12” NHL…

    How many teams total would there be in today’s NHL?

    Although really it should be the Original Four, non?

  148. Stelio Kontos says:

    magneto:
    Do you not think that the NHLPA will concede on the NMC issue, just due to the fact that they will be welcoming 100 (2x 50 man teams) new members?
    Seems like a good trade off, only 50 or so NMC’s in the expansion year

    Who knows what a union would do. They probably are more concerned about the expansion franchises lowering demand in the short term.

  149. Stelio Kontos says:

    Guess on the NMC is that the NHL makes them exempt, but grandfather’s it this year. Not fair in regards to chicago, but it seems very NHL. Maybe the question we should be asking is what would benefit Lou the most?

  150. StixMalone says:

    frjohnk: I think Dallas signs him.

    If they don’t offer him a contract, I’d be wondering why as their defense depth is not that great. (Klingberg is great offensively, but not the greatest defensively for RHS on their team)

    Dallas would be stupid to let him get to free agency. So as much as we would love him here it ain’t gonna happen folks…..

  151. SK Oiler Fan says:

    bendelson:
    So I noticed the other day that the Jays have an ambidextrous pitcher in the minor leagues.
    Now sure, it means significantly more in baseball, but… how long until we have a defenseman in the NHL with such skills?

    Chris Chelios was the only one that I know of. Used a fairly straight stick and would flip it over to the other side on occasion.
    I bet Lidstrom could have done it as well if he chose to.

  152. Fog of Warts says:

    My post vanished. New rules? Re-post tells me I’m repeating myself.

    I was agreeing with Woodguy about Hoffs at some digressive length. Never been quarantined for that before around these parts, but (as with most things) there’s always a first time.

    I guess whatever typos I made, should my post somehow surface, are now cast in carbonite.

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