KING OF FAYNE

The Edmonton Oilers won last night despite giving up 40 shots to a Vancouver Canucks team that could be kindly referred to as transitional. Edmonton has some roster issues of their own, so I think it is fair to credit the goalie, some of the defensemen, and a group of forwards who could have cashed many times, but managed to score enough to win.

GOODNIGHT MRS. CALABASH, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 6-4-0
  • Oilers after 74 in 2014-15: 21-40-13, 55 points (-75 GD)
  • Oilers after 74 in 2015-16: 29-38-7, 65 points (-37 GD)

Oilers have improved in many ways year over year, they have eight more wins, 10 more points and the Goddams are pretty damned good. Edmonton has a bunch of things to fix, and they need to keep what they have so acquiring new pieces should involve cash, picks and extra pieces from areas of depth (LH blue).

INDIVIDUAL HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Four: Connor McDavid
  • Two: Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Iiro Pakarinen
  • One: Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera, Matt Hendricks, Nail Yakupov, Adam Clendening

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Sekera—Fayne had a great night, playing against the best Vancouver could offer, and even past prime, on the road and playing with a new player (man, they must be pissed at Vrbata), the Sedins are a mittful. Fayne had 11 defensive zone starts (four offensive) and this duo had the puck heading in the right direction all night long. I know Fayne isn’t popular among readers of Popular Mechanics, but I would love to see him back next year.
  • Nurse—Clendening were foaming in the gloaming to my eye. They had plenty of issues, this is not an NHL pairing at this time. They weren’t playing a tough line, and were on the ice quite a bit with McDavid (Nurse was 10-6 at evens with McDavid), so you would like to see this pairing post a stronger number. The dangerous chances in the game that I recall came with this pairing on the ice, chasing the puck. Nurse had seven defensive zone starts (none in the offensive zone) and he badly needs another partner. I have mentioned it before, but I wonder if Todd McLellan will run Nurse-Reinhart at some point.
  • Oesterle—Reinhart had an unusual night. One the one hand, they played three inexperienced forwards, and got fed (Reinhart was 5-15 against Horvat, who is 45 percent in possession 5×5). On the other hand, I saw them good and the puck appeared to be heading in a good direction with this pairing on the ice. The coach likes them, I would be interested to see what the Oilers insider metrics say—make no mistake, the fancy stats have this duo getting their ass kicked. However, Reinhat had 10 defensive zone starts (three offensive) and my memory of the game runs counter trey to the math. Input welcome, ladies. Oesterle might be an NHL player. He had one insane sequence where he tried to give the blasted Sedins the puck multiple times, but I swear to God the game itself gave me a good impression of him.
  • Cam Talbot got the shutout, his .919SP has him in a tie for No. 16 in the NHL—among goalies with 25 or more games. He is not Bernie Parent, but Talbot is posting a strong run since Christmas. His even-strength SP is .922, ranking him No. 27 among those goalies who have played in 25 or more games.

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

The Oilers had enough talent to roll over the Canucks, but that blue line above missed a lot of opportunities to get the puck out under control. I don’t blame them, and credit to Vancouver, but if you add four capable blue to Sekera—Fayne next season and things should idle smoothly. G Money noticed that the mid-game move of Nuge up to the big line did not have the desired impact (graph via G):

gmoney

Quoting G in last night’s comments section:

  • Not sure if it’s causative or not i.e. did the pushback happen because the changeup was ineffective, or did the changeup happen because of the pushback? Not sure, but the shot metrics went off the rails when TMc went away from the unicorns and moved Nuge up with Drai and Hall. It went from Hall/Drai/Pak effective -> Hall/Drai/Nuge ineffective AND Yak/Nuge/Korpi OK -> Yak/Korpi/Testtube buried in the depths of hell.  So it seems that loading up the two lines actually took the Oilers from three effective lines to one effective line.

GMoney made a point of saying he wasn’t sure, but it does explain the wobbly TOI for the lines and that graph above is a concern. To my eye, the math is saying the Sedins toughest situations came from Sekera—Fayne and Hall—Draisaitl—Pakarinen. Leon was 6-4 against the Sedins. That’s some quality work on a night when Daniel and Henrik went 17-11 (13-5 away from the Leon line).

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Hall—Pakarinen (as above) had some success (Pakarinen posting an assist) and played against the Sedin line. The trio had five high-danger scoring chances, and Leon was 90 percent on the dot. This is my line of the night, as Leon in the faceoff circle, Hall with the puck on his stick and Pakarinen skating miles had a dizzying effect on the opposition.
  • Maroon—Eberle had a pretty impressive night despite the possession numbers. Eberle scored (from McDavid) and the high-danger scoring chances totaled six—four from 97. He is crazy good. You want McDavid playing with tremendous skill, and Eberle matches that definition. Maroon appears to be from the Benoit Pouliot family of skill players—better than most people think. Early days, but he makes deft plays. I think he might be smart.
  • Hendricks—Kassian had some good moments, with Matt Hendricks scoring his fourth goal of the year—he also made the tackle. Kassian took a silly penalty, but he was physical and had a lot of try. Timing seemed to be an issue.
  • Korpikoski—Yakupov lost the possession battle and the line had just one scoring chance. I like the fact the line is unpredictable—they can cause havoc in checking—but I think Nuge must be driven mad by the around-the-world feel of his wingers. This line will not stand, man. Korpikoski is jazz to my eye, lots of downbeat and things I don’t normally see. Do Finns learn the game differently? Serious question. I think he might play angles to the puck or skater, like he is trying to cut off lanes. Give me one more year of watching him and I will figure it out. He is more substantial than Petrell, more responsible than Jones, but I will be damned if I am certain what the hell he is doing sometimes. If Korpikoski is jazz, Nail is Mingus. There are times I think Nail is going to shatter into six pieces in the neutral zone, only to appear whole on a breakaway. I still think his feet are trying to catch up to his brain, and have decided he will peak in his 30s. One of the issues for this line: eight defensive zone starts, two offensive. That is a tough assignment for this trio.

Zac is a bright guy, worth a follow. I have heard this idea from people that will talk to me and have read it here and there. If the Oilers win the lottery, one wonders if they might be willing to deal down for a consideration. Laine is scoring in the Sm-Liiga, and that is a pretty good league (although the NHL equivalencies I use have Auston Matthews Swiss League as being more substantial).

Mark Fayne is the Rodney Dangerfield of Oilers hockey, but I think he is a solid NHL player. In a perfect world, he would not be on the top pairing, but as has been the case with so many Oilers veterans (hello, Shawn Horcoff!), we often choose to blame the veteran for batting in the heart of the order, as opposed to blaming management for creating a flawed lineup. I would love to see him back here:

  • Oscar Klefbom—Jason Demers
  • Andrej Sekera—David Savard
  • Brandon Davidson—Mark Fayne
  • Darnell Nurse

McLellan ran some nights in San Jose with six guys who could play the middle, and he uses Matt Hendricks and (earlier, plus last night) Leon Draisaitl in that way. Having more than one center gives the coach all kinds of options, and is one of two things we isolated about the coach last summer (the other being a Melker Karlsson always in the mix. His Melker Karlsson this season? Iiro Pakarinen. Apparently it helps to have a wobbly name). What about this?

  • Pouliot—McDavid—Patrik Laine
  • Hall—Nuge—Draisaitl
  • Maroon—Frans Nielsen—Zack Kassian

DARNELL NURSE

When we get to the Darnell Nurse portion of the RE series, I am going to be looking at rookie comparables. It is not a pretty sight at this point, and while it is fair to point the finger at management (Nurse played with Andrej Sekera for a time on the top line—unwise), the season has been a struggle. I think it wise to suggest the Oilers would do well to make their plans for next season based on Nurse once again starting the year in Bakersfield. Perhaps that gives them enough room to keep Mark Fayne on the roster. Doubt it happens, but in my opinion that is the play here.

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129 Responses to "KING OF FAYNE"

  1. Ribzyrich says:

    Taylor Hall is a supernova, I just don’t see a reason to move this kid. LT yesterday the list of Dmen to trade Hall for does not have 10 names on it.

  2. wheatnoil says:

    Tweeted these late last night (watched the game on PVR) but I thought I’d throw it up so more than 5 people would see it. I’m planning to combine them all together some time late next week (I should have around 5 games by then).

    Zone Exits including Zone Exit Assists (Total / Controlled)
    Sekera – 7/ 57%
    Fayne – 9/ 78%

    Nurse – 8/ 38%
    Clendening – 8/ 50%

    Reinhart – 13/ 46%
    Oesterle – 15/ 93%!!

    (A zone exit ‘assist’ is making the primary pass to a forward leading to the zone exit.)

    Oesterle was a zone exit machine!

    Fayne had an uncharacteristically good passing game.

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    On the other hand, I saw them good and the puck appeared to be heading in a good direction with this pairing on the ice. The coach likes them, I would be interested to see what the Oilers insider metrics say—make no mistake, the fancy stats have this duo getting their ass kicked.

    I didn’t see them good.
    They got smoked, shift after shift.
    At this point they’re a top-flight AHL defensive pair.

    And to put a number to the ass-kicking, Reinhart’s ES Fen% for March is 43%.
    And that includes one game at 16 – 6, 73%.
    Four out of six games under 40%.

    But, hope springs eternal.

  4. wheatnoil says:

    Zone Entries Against
    Times Targeted / Break-up & Forced Dump-in
    Sekera – 7/ 86%!!
    Fayne – 6/33%

    Nurse – 12/25%
    Clendening – 11/27%

    Reinhart – 15/40%
    Oesterle – 7/0%

    Sekera & Fayne basically switched roles this game, with Fayne being the puck mover and Sekera denying entries. They did particularly well given they played mostly against the twins. The Sedins had a tougher time carrying the puck in on them.

    I didn’t think Oesterle was getting walked at the line as bad as this looks. Reinhart, though, was full value with some nice forced dumps. These two continue to complement each other in zone transitions. I knew the outcome of the game and knew that they got killed in the corgis when I watched it and still couldn’t figure out how they got fed that bad. Like LT (and G Money), I thought they did well by eye.

  5. Water Fire says:

    Fayne has a better chance of staying now than he did before the GM meetings because of the expansion draft IMO.

    The idea of the draft bothers me, I suppose because the team is finally pulling itself up only to potentially lose good players. However Katz will be paid handsomely for his troubles – money makes the NHL go round.

    To my eye what really holds them back is the inability of so many players to do simple plays well and win their battle or put the puck to the right place. McLellan certainly doesn’t like it. Part of it is ability and part is discipline. Once they push past this they will be a really good team.

    I also see Fayne as a ‘good’ player, but he does mess up regularly, and to me if your whole game is defensive play you can’t do that every game or often. You should only get beat by a really good play which happens to all.

  6. Woodguy says:

    KING OF FAYNE

    Telegraphing the music for the Re: series?

    I thought you already did The Police one year?

  7. One-Timer says:

    It will cost a fortune to keep 97, 93 and 29 on this roster, but worth every penny. They are the core of the putative championship team being built here, with a coach who loves his C’s. Also, the Nuge plays defence at least as well as any blueliner currently on the Oiler roster.

    I’m fine with this scenario:
    “Connor, will you take a long-term $9M contract?”
    “Naw.”
    “Fine, here’s $10M. For a century, if the CBA allows it.”

    It sure beats this scrum quote from an alternate universe:
    “We want to challenge Connor with a one-year bridge deal to see if he can actually score 100 points in this league.”

  8. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Mark Fayne isn’t the Rodney Dangerfield of Oilers hockey. Let’s not exaggerate.

    Taylor Hall is.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    KING OF FAYNE

    Telegraphing the music for the Re: series?

    I thought you already did The Police one year?

    No decision from the decision desk.

  10. One-Timer says:

    wheatnoil:
    Zone Entries Against
    Times Targeted / Break-up & Forced Dump-in
    Sekera – 7/ 86%!!
    Fayne – 6/33%

    Nurse – 12/25%
    Clendening – 11/27%

    Reinhart – 15/40%
    Oesterle – 7/0%

    Sekera & Fayne basically switched roles this game, with Fayne being the puck mover and Sekera denying entries. They did particularly well given they played mostly against the twins. The Sedins had a tougher time carrying the puck in on them.

    I didn’t think Oesterle was getting walked at the line as bad as this looks. Reinhart, though, was full value with some nice forced dumps. These two continue to complement each other in zone transitions. I knew the outcome of the game and knew that they got killed in the corgis when I watched it and still couldn’t figure out how they got fed that bad. Like LT (and G Money), I thought they did well by eye.

    Nice work! I have a gut feeling that controlled zone entry should be one of the stats most strongly correlated to winning.

    Perhaps I’ll get off my ass and actually do some number crunching for this blog some day. Currently I’m a Tier 3 Poster if there ever was one.

  11. Norman Greenbaum says:

    One-Timer: Perhaps I’ll get off my ass and actually do some number crunching for this blog some day. Currently I’m a Tier 3 Poster if there ever was one.

    Well, the folks here know a thing or two about number-crunching, if there’s ever a concern.

  12. One-Timer says:

    Lowetide: No decision from the decision desk.

    Combo the Police with Sting’s solo work and I think we have a winner. Not only does the Dream of the Blue Turtles contain some beautiful music, but also provides these titles for the RE’s:

    If You Love Somebody Set them Free (Hall)
    Russians (Yak)
    We Work the Black Seam (Sekera)

    Gold, Jerry!

  13. kdunbar says:

    Love the set up for the lines that have been set up.

    On the forward line I would switch Maroon and Pouliot as a default but this is minor.

    Before going with Neilson on the third line I would hope the oilers employ woodguy to do an analysis. But I love the idea.

  14. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Hehehe…..No Rush!

    *runs, jumps behind wall with eyes scrunched closed and fingers in ears*

    3……..2………1…….BOOM!

  15. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: No decision from the decision desk.

    Any thoughts Deep Purple?

    Taylor Hall “Fireball”

    You’re racing like a fireball dancing like a ghost
    You’re gemini and I don’t know which one I like the most
    My head is getting broken and my mind is getting bust
    But now I’m coming with you down the road of golden dust

    Benoit Pouliot “Soldier of Fortune” because he bounced around the league a lot before this contract

    I have often told you stories
    About the way
    I lived the life of a drifter
    Waiting for the day
    When I’d take your hand
    And sing you songs
    Then maybe you would say
    Come lay with me love me
    And I would surely stay

    Justin Schultz “Sail Away”
    If you’re driftin’ on an empty ocean
    with no wind to fill your sail,
    the future, your horizon,
    it’s like searchin’ for the Holy Grail.
    You feel there’s no tomorrow
    as you look into the water below.
    It’s only your reflection
    and you still ain’t got no place to go

    McDavid “You Keep On Moving”

    You keep on moving
    Far away far away
    You keep on moving
    Far away far away
    Everyday wheels are turning
    And the cry still returning

    Dawn will soon be breaking
    The day has just begun
    You put your arms around me
    Like a circle ’round the sun
    Dance across the seasons
    To a place that no one knows
    Where angels fear to tread
    All Oilers fans “Wasted Sunsets”

    The day is gone
    when the angels come to stay
    And all the silent whispers
    will be blown away
    And lying in the corner
    a pair of high heel shoes
    Hanging on the wall
    gold and silver for the blues

    One too many wasted sunsets
    One too many for the road
    And after dark the door is always open
    Hoping someone else will show

    Someone is waiting behind
    an unlocked door
    Grey circles overhead empties
    on the floor
    The cracks in the walls have
    grown too long
    The slow hand is dragging on
    afraid to meet the dawn

    One too many wasted sunsets
    One too many for the road
    And after dark the door is always open
    Hoping someone else will show

    Etc and your mileage may vary and all that.

  16. smellyglove says:

    LT,

    Just curious: Why do you say “they” (Canucks coach, mgmt?) are mad at Vbrata? Demoted?

    Thanks big guy!

  17. prefonmich says:

    I think realistically Fayne isn’t going anywhere due to an absolute lack of RH Dmen. Although it’s clear by them trying Reinhart and Davidson on right that they are seeing if they can readjust their glut of LHD to their offside. Fayne is a very good 3rd pairing stay at home d that is overpaid at that level, therefore untradeable IMO. He offers us more value than to trade and retain salary or take back an unwanted contract imo but we still need two top pairing RHD… Everything falls in place from how those two pieces are added?! Going to be an interesting summer- I don’t have full trust in Chia nor McLellan with some of the decisions thus far…

  18. Woogie63 says:

    Did I see Eberle join the Beartschi 4 on 1 scrum? Poor Sven, Nurse finishes a check into the end boards, the next thing the Lords of Flatbush, Reinhart, Nurse, Maroon AND Eberle completely squish him into the boards, I could not even see his uniform on TV.

    I bet our boys were laughing about that play after the game.

  19. NomoreLoweMcT says:

    I sure hope the Oilers keep Nuge as they really don’t have that much depth at centre. If McD or Draisaitl were injured they would have NO ONE to put on a top line, plus Nuge gives his all every game and is good at defending. Keep him.
    As to Hall or Eberle going out, I’d prefer they trade Eberle & ? for Harmonic. But Eberle does seem to work with McD and if he continues to perform and get goals thru the end of the season then on that basis would look to trade Hall for a stud Dman, but only if this person isn’t one that will be in the decline soon. Lowetide is right that Pollock would never trade Hall at 24 yrs of age!
    I still believe Reinhart will be on this team and will continue to improve despite Lowetides obvious bias against him. I do worry that Nurse would have benefited more from being in the AHL this year and hope his confidence isn’t set back by a poor year in Edmonton. That said, gotta believe McLellan knows what he was doing playing him so much and that Nurse doesn’t turn into the next Petry or Schultz. (And keep Fayne)

  20. rickithebear says:

    Ribzyrich:
    Taylor Hall is a supernova, I just don’t see a reason to move this kid. LT yesterday the list of Dmen to trade Hall for does not have 10 names on it.

    One of the 3 D I would trade Hall for is out with staff infection surgery!

  21. Norman Greenbaum says:

    smellyglove:
    LT,

    Just curious: Why do you say “they” (Canucks coach, mgmt?) are mad at Vbrata? Demoted?

    Thanks big guy!

    When deep frying fish, it’s important not to forget Vrbata.

  22. John Chambers says:

    Water Fire,

    The Maple Leafs are doing everyone favours – Fayne will get traded to TO along with a 3rd and 4th Rd pick for a worthless prospect.

    Although I feel the Leafs’ overall plan of acquiring picks is a sound one, I’m doubtful whether all this manoevering results in them ultimately developing more than a couple of tweeners and depth blueliners.

    Either way Chiarelli needs to find a way to turn Purcell, Nikitin, Ference, and Fayne’s $16M into Jason Demers and Frans Neilson.

  23. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    LT,

    Just curious: Why do you say “they” (Canucks coach, mgmt?) are mad at Vbrata? Demoted?

    Thanks big guy!

    Iirc, he was with the Sedins a year ago. That is a long way down to his linemates last night.

  24. rickithebear says:

    One-Timer: Nice work! I have a gut feeling that controlled zone entry should be one of the stats most strongly correlated to winning.

    Finally 6 years latter!
    1. Successful entry/Pocession

    2. Corsi/ Successful entry

    3. Low/Med/High Shots/Corsi

    some are only at fenwick
    if being further from the desired out com (goals) makes people feel better.
    Stuart Smalley says “that is ok”

    4.Low open/low shots; Med open/Med shots; High open/High shots.

    5. Goals/ low open shot; Goals/ med open shot; Goals/ High open shot.

    you guys are getting closer!
    to the full pocession path!

    Keep bringing your Data!

  25. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    NomoreLoweMcT,

    Not really fair to say LT is biased against GR. He didn’t like the price paid, and at this stage he is dead on with that assessment

    He isn’t biased against GR though.

  26. Bruce McCurdy says:

    One-Timer: Combo the Police with Sting’s solo work and I think we have a winner.Not only does the Dream of the Blue Turtles contain some beautiful music, but also provides these titles for the RE’s:

    If You Love Somebody Set them Free (Hall)
    Russians (Yak)
    We Work the Black Seam (Sekera)

    Gold, Jerry!

    Fragile (Klefbom)

    *sobs quietly*

  27. JDï™ says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Who would get ‘Space Truckin’?

  28. Suntory Hanzo says:

    smellyglove:
    LT,

    Just curious: Why do you say “they” (Canucks coach, mgmt?) are mad at Vbrata? Demoted?

    Thanks big guy!

    Lots of talk out here on the coast about Vrbata being injured right before the trade deadline making him ineligible for trade.

    That made a. Lot of Canuck ‘fans’ angry.

  29. JDï™ says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Fragile (Klefbom)

    Canary in a Coal Mine?

  30. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Suntory Hanzo: That made a. Lot of Canuck ‘fans’ angry.

    Losing in game seven angry, or just extremely vexed?

  31. Lowetide says:

    Roxanne would have fit Scribbles pretty well. #Red #Light.

  32. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Lowetide:
    Roxanne would have fit Scribbles pretty well. #Red #Light.

    Don’t have to wear that dress no more.

  33. Klima's_Bucket says:

    When The World Is Running Down, You Make The Best Of What’s Still Around – McDavid

  34. Dominoiler says:

    Imo, fayne makes too much to be penciled in as a 5/6.. Sure, with no salary cap, but I’m thinking fayne blocks demers if they bring in hamonic.. At this point if prefer a more well rounded dman in the top 4.. But, guessing he’ll be back and I won’t totally be disappointed, has done well w sekera.. Could they be a 2nd pair on a playoff team?

  35. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: No decision from the decision desk.

    RE music series.

    How about picking a year? And choosing songs produced during that year in the RE series. Might give you some blacktop and opiate the masses.

  36. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Norman Greenbaum,

    lol. Vexed.

    To be honest, much of the interest in the Canucks out here is completely gone. I teach at a high school and very few kids wear apparel. Even on spirit days.

    Times are telling when you see tickets on groupon. That’s how I went in the fall when the Oil were in town. They don’t even get surly when I wear Oilers gear there.

    Kinda sad. Especially how I know how long it will take them to get back to good again. And that’s with Horvat being ‘better than Nugent Hopkins’!

  37. Lois Lowe says:

    I thought Osterle had a couple really glaring mistakes. At this point, I am as comfortable with him than I was with Jultz. Reinhart also struggled to my eye, but he did make a few excellent reads.

    Hall was a force last night and McDavid is just silly.

    With an actual NHL D corps this team might actually compete most nights.

    I remain optimistic. The goal differential is the first sign that things are improving, and I don’t think it’s all Talbot.

    Both Pittsburgh and Chicago had a massive improvement in GD, and still finished bottom 5, before they started winning a lot more than they were losing.

  38. One-Timer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    NomoreLoweMcT,

    Not really fair to say LT is biased against GR. He didn’t like the price paid, and at this stage he is dead on with that assessment

    He isn’t biased against GR though.

    Thanks for clarifying that.

    I don’t know if he’ll cover the bet, but we’re starting to see flashes of the calm-headed decision-making he was known for in junior. He also seems willing to join the rush a time or two when he knows he won’t get burned. If the Rhino’s just starting to find his sea-legs in the bigs, then we might be quite happy with him before long.

    rhino sea-legs

  39. Dominoiler says:

    Oh yeah, and the God Damns are only good relatively speaking, still ugly relative to the league..

  40. GCW_69 says:

    Gotta be Bowie.

    Putting out fire with gasoline?

    Changes?

    Let’s Dance?

    Absolute beginners?

    All the madmen?

    Always crashing the same car?

    A better future?

    Boys keep swinging?

    Brilliant adventure?

    Candidate?

    Dancing in the street?

    Dancing with the big boys?

    Deadman walking?

    Fame?

    Fantastic voyage?

    Fascination?

    Everything’s alright?

    Five years?

    Future legend?

    Get real?

    God knows I am good?

    Here today gone tomorrow?

    Heroes?

    I can’t explain?

    I can’t give everything away?

    I got you babe?

    I wish you would?

    It ain’t easy?

    Jump they say?

    The loneliest guy?

    Magic dance?

    Never let me down?

    New angels of promise?

    No one calls?

    Oh you pretty things?

    An occasional dream?

    Rebel never gets old?

    Repetition?

    Safe?

    Scary monsters?

    Scream like a baby?

    Shadow man?

    Slip away?

    Slow burn?

    Longer list is here:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:David_Bowie_songs

  41. sliderule says:

    The dogs have been barking against the oilers the last two games and yet they were both wins.

    Is it bad play or just score effects.?

    My eyes said that the oiler forwards didn’t forecheck that aggressive and the defence didn’t pinch that much after they got the lead but don’t ask me for back up as I have none.

    I saw Reinhart / Oesterle pairing good as they didn’t seem to be running around or turning puck over.

    I saw Nurse make several good exit passes and one particularly good defensive play against a Canucks rush.

    I saw Yak doing his usual deer in the headlights play in own zone that basically made it look like oilers were short handed..You don’t want to get caught in own zone with Yak if you are worried about your corgis.

  42. jm363561 says:

    I think it wise to suggest the Oilers would do well to make their plans for next season based on Nurse once again starting the year in Bakersfield.

    =====
    Quite a change from last September when Darnell was going to make it impossible for the coach to keep him in B’field. I said at the time that just because DN was one of the best 6 D in the club it was no justification for playing him in the NHL – his development was the priority.I also freely admitted I did not know what was best for his development, and still do not. However, I think I can say that he does not seem to have progressed at all this year, quite the reverse in fact. DN’s significant decline, and that of Lander, have been big disappointments this season.

    Leon on the other hand has performed magnificently for such a young guy and seems to have developed well.

  43. PunjabiOil says:

    Was at the game. Saw Reinhart good. He was named the 3rd star.

    However, the numbers don’t look good so this is where the math comes in and makes you challenge your assertions.

    I still think the Oilers should consider moving him this summer. Even if he turns out, he will almost surely be exposed next summer in the expansion draft. And he’s not a guy who will be worth the 3.7M cap hit next season.

    For the record the Oilers I thought after 2 periods were the superior team and had better scoring chances. Don’t recall Vancouver having too many high danger scoring chances, despite 40 shots.

    We need some losses. Everything we accomplished to date to draft in a good position is being endangered with hollow, meaningless wins.

  44. John Chambers says:

    Lois Lowe,

    The Oilers could use a pair of 7-1 wins to iron out the GD’s to a more respectable level.

    We were climbing back to tolerable after the AS break before giving it all away one afternoon against the Isles.

    God damn.

  45. rickithebear says:

    Gret99zky: RE music series.

    How about picking a year?And choosing songs produced during that year in the RE series.Might give you some blacktop and opiate the masses.

    He would be dropping down in comp facing 2nd’s

  46. OilClog says:

    Fayne has no place on this team next season if it’s serious about a playoff thought.

    He could be here as the 7th defender but he makes way too damn much for that.

    the team could sign both Pardy and Gryba for his money, or get a player not on the downside of his career that’s a 4/5.

    Sekera/Addition
    Klef/Addition
    Davidson/Reinhart/Gryba/Pardy/Osterle/Nurse

    Fayne is redundant, a dying breed, a buck from yesterday, a memory of how things use to be. Let’s leave it in the past and move on.

    Contract to rich for the position he needs to be in for this team to actually succeed, kind of like the 4th line center making more then who should be the 4th liner that sits wasting away in th box. The money needs to be better used.

    The Faynes/Letestus have to stop to manage this teams cap properly and not lose the better players for nothing.

  47. godot10 says:

    Dominoiler:
    Imo, fayne makes too much to be penciled in as a 5/6.. Sure, with no salary cap, but I’m thinking fayne blocks demers if they bring in hamonic.. At this point if prefer a more well rounded dman in the top 4..But, guessing he’ll be back and I won’t totally be disappointed, has done well w sekera.. Could they be a 2nd pair on a playoff team?

    There is an expansion draft next summer in 2017, where the Oilers have to expose approximately $17 million in salary. Fayne’s $3.6 million takes the OIlers over 20% of the way there. Expansion essentially guarantees that Fayne is an Oiler next year, because they need a players to expose to get to $17 million.

    The 25% requirement is trickier than it seems. It requires some planning.

  48. Lowetide says:

    jm363561:
    Ithink it wise to suggest the Oilers would do well to make their plans for next season based on Nurse once again starting the year in Bakersfield.

    =====
    Quite a change from last September when Darnell was going to make it impossible for the coach to keep him in B’field. I said at the time that just because DN was one of the best 6 D in the club it was no justification for playing him in the NHL – his development was the priority.I also freely admitted I did not know what was best for his development, and still do not. However, I think I can say that he does not seem to have progressed at all this year, quite the reverse in fact. DN’s significant decline, and that of Lander, have been big disappointments this season.

    Leon on the other hand has performed magnificently for such a young guy and seems to have developed well.

    I said, and was correct, that the Oilers had no choice in keeping Nurse with the big club. He was one of the six best options. That is a fact, you can look it up. Sending Nurse down was the right thing to do, but you can’t punish your coach because the front office advised you that Nikitin could play and you believed them.

  49. fifthcartel says:

    If Nurse for Hamonic is on table I think Chiarelli has to do it.

  50. godot10 says:

    Nurse won’t be traded because he doesn’t have to be protected in next year’s expansion draft. Any defensemen you trade him for has to be protected.

    The Oilers will choose the 8 skaters option in the expansion draft which will let them protect 4 forwards, 4 D, plus McDavid and Nurse.

    So out of the expansion draft, the OIlers get to protect their 4 best D, plus Nurse == 5 D.

    Minimal damage from the expansion draft to the defense.

  51. PunjabiOil says:

    If Nurse for Hamonic is on table I think Chiarelli has to do it.

    Even more so now because:

    1. Nurse’s value is eroding. Sometimes the Oilers have waited too long to cut a young player loose (see Gagner, Sam). The honeymoon phase for Nurse will eventually wear off.

    2. Is this a guy you really want to protect in the expansion draft? That’s the way it’s heading.

    3. Hamonic is a better player, still young, and provides an immediate upgrade. Nurse’s upside is Hamonic.

    A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

  52. PunjabiOil says:

    godot10:
    Nurse won’t be traded because he doesn’t have to be protected in next year’s expansion draft.Any defensemen you trade him for has to be protected.

    The Oilers will choose the 8 skaters option in the expansion draft which will let them protect 4 forwards, 4 D, plus McDavid and Nurse.

    So out of the expansion draft, the OIlers get to protect their 4 best D, plus Nurse == 5 D.

    Minimal damage from the expansion draft to the defense.

    Nurse will have accumulated 2 professional seasons by the end of next year – I believe that would require him to be protected.

    See the Nylander example the NHL pointed out as a player who would be required to be protected.

  53. One-Timer says:

    Dominoiler:
    Oh yeah, and the God Damns are only good relatively speaking, still ugly relative to the league..

    True, but cutting down your differential by half is a hell of a step (and the sample size is nearly a whole season now).

    The team was in a lot more close games this year, despite the ward full of guys on IR. Not getting blown out of the water all the time is the first thing. Hanging on to win games like STL this week is another nice increment.

    Coach is pulling this cow out of the bog with a rusty old tractor and a rope around the horns.

  54. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    Hey LT, I think it’d be cool if you changed it up and used Drake song titles for next seasons RE. His new album will be out by then too 🙂

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Since Sting & Peter Gabriel are playing together in Edmonton this off-season on their Rock Paper Scissors tour, why not a combo of both. From the PG catalog you could add:

    Big Time – McDavid
    D.I.Y. – Hall
    Digging In the Dirt – Hendricks
    Don’t Give Up – Davidson
    Excuse Me – Purcell
    Exposure – Oesterle
    Here Comes the Flood – Talbot
    Home Sweet Home – Brossoit
    Humdrum – Korpikoski
    I Don’t Remember – Gazdic
    I Grieve – Klefbom
    I Have the Touch – Eberle
    Intruder – Kassian
    Kiss That Frog – yeah, not gonna go there
    Lay Your Hands On Me – Nuge
    Lead a Normal Life – Nikitin
    Love To Be Loved – Reinhart
    Mother Of Violence – Nurse
    No Self Control – Yakupov
    Not One Of Us – Scrivens
    Out Out – Schultz
    Shock the Monkey – Maroon
    Sledgehammer – Draisaitl
    We Do What We’re Told – Pakarinen
    Wallflower – Ference

  56. JDï™ says:

    PunjabiOil: 1. Nurse’s value is eroding. Sometimes the Oilers have waited too long to cut a young player loose (see Gagner, Sam).

    I see. So cutting a player loose before they know what he’s going to be, is the answer to that?

    I smell a Loverboy RE series in the oven!

  57. fifthcartel says:

    I think Nurse has struggled but my willingness to move him for Hamonic is more based in acquiring a top-pairing RHD that is probably at where Nurse ends up eventually, but the point is he’s already there now so you don’t have to go through more bumps and the Oilers need that desperately. Oh, and he’s on a great contract.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Hemsky is a gangsta:
    Hey LT, I think it’d be cool if you changed it up and used Drake song titles for next seasons RE. His new album will be out by then too :)

    My daughter loves Drake, so I could probably cobble together something. However, so far ‘solo albums by lead singers of famous English rock bands’ is in the lead, and gives me a chance to introduce everyone to the collected works of solo Roger Daltrey.

  59. godot10 says:

    PunjabiOil: Nurse will have accumulated 2 professional seasons by the end of next year – I believe that would require him to be protected.

    See the Nylander example the NHL pointed out as a player who would be required to be protected.

    Nylander is finishing his 2nd professional season this year. Nurse (and McDavid and Ehlers) is finishing his first. Nylander will be a 3 year professional next year and thus eligible for the expansion draft.

    Nurse, McDavid, Ehlers…don’t have to be protected.

  60. PunjabiOil says:

    godot10: Nylander is finishing his 2nd professional season this year.Nurse (and McDavid and Ehlers) is finishing his first.Nylander will be a 3 year professional next year and thus eligiblefor the expansion draft.

    Nurse, McDavid, Ehlers…don’t have to be protected.

    Interesting. That certainly changes everything.

  61. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide,

    I was having a chat about Van Morrison at the bar on St Patrick’s Day with a young lady from our sales team who had just discovered him.

    I played your suggested track each morning of every day when you ran that series. Great month of making the kids breakfast, courtesy of Dad, LoweTide, and YouTube.

  62. jm363561 says:

    Lowetide: I said, and was correct, that the Oilers had no choice in keeping Nurse with the big club. He was one of the six best options. That is a fact, you can look it up. Sending Nurse down was the right thing to do, but you can’t punish your coach because the front office advised you that Nikitin could play and you believed them.

    There is zero disagreement on who wrote what -I remember your comment well as it is the only time in the last 12 months I have not totally agreed with you – it is your first two sentences that I do not agree with. Rightly, or wrongly, I believe that putting a young D into the NHL before they are ready “because they are one of the six best options”, with no regard to their long term development, is the sort of thing that does not happen in a well run club.

    What the coach should have done (play NN?)is another issue. Until OK went down on December 11 three of Sekers, Klefbom, GR and BD were available to play LD most, if not all, nights. Then, when the season died in February Musil, Oerstele, Reinhart could all have come up and DN gone down to draw breath (which I believe you argued for).

    I have a lot of faith in Todd and Pete but I have a creeping doubt on this one, and for the one and only time a teeny weeny disagreement with your good self.

  63. One-Timer says:

    Lowetide: My daughter loves Drake, so I could probably cobble together something. However, so far ‘solo albums by lead singers of famous English rock bands’ is in the lead, and gives me a chance to introduce everyone to the collected works of solo Roger Daltrey.

    Now you’re telegraphing for real.

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10:
    Nurse won’t be traded because he doesn’t have to be protected in next year’s expansion draft.Any defensemen you trade him for has to be protected.

    The Oilers will choose the 8 skaters option in the expansion draft which will let them protect 4 forwards, 4 D, plus McDavid and Nurse.

    So out of the expansion draft, the OIlers get to protect their 4 best D, plus Nurse == 5 D.

    Minimal damage from the expansion draft to the defense.

    You’d rather protect 4 F 4 D than 7 F 3 D? From THIS crew?

  65. Ice Sage says:

    Lowetide: My daughter loves Drake, so I could probably cobble together something. However, so far ‘solo albums by lead singers of famous English rock bands’ is in the lead, and gives me a chance to introduce everyone to the collected works of solo Roger Daltrey.

    I’m not getting fooled again

  66. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: I said, and was correct, that the Oilers had no choice in keeping Nurse with the big club. He was one of the six best options. That is a fact, you can look it up. Sending Nurse down was the right thing to do, but you can’t punish your coach because the front office advised you that Nikitin could play and you believed them.

    Remember that epic pre-season game against Vancouver?

    TMac put Fernuckle and Niki on a pairing together… I don’t know if there’s been a d pairing that’s ever tilted the rink that much in the wrong direction before or since.

    He didn’t try to split the pairing or shelter them much and the corgis were something like 35-3.

    That was a bold way to tell the front office that those players can no longer play in the NHL.

  67. Pastor of Disaster says:

    Hemsky is a gangsta:
    Hey LT, I think it’d be cool if you changed it up and used Drake song titles for next seasons RE. His new album will be out by then too

    I’ve long thought the best hip hop RE artist would be Kanye. Or Beastie Boys. Or Public Enemy. Maybe an all-rap RE, after LT accidentally watches “Straight Outta Compton” on Pay Per View, thinking he had ordered The Revenant.

    EDIT: I see LT gave a solid “it’s not out of the realm of possibility” regarding Drake. The heart is a-flutter.

  68. McSorley33 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Great post.

    Matches my eye and TMac comments.

  69. One-Timer says:

    Lowetide: My daughter loves Drake, so I could probably cobble together something. However, so far ‘solo albums by lead singers of famous English rock bands’ is in the lead, and gives me a chance to introduce everyone to the collected works of solo Roger Daltrey.

    We were listening to SoulTown in the car when Timmy Thomas (not the goalie) came on the air, and my daughter goes, “What the heck? That’s that Drake song!”

    Aparently Mr. Thomas is just fine with the rip-off.

  70. PunjabiOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Lets say they get Hamonic this off-season or Demers.

    Klefbom, Davidson, Hamonic (or comparable). Then you still have Sekera and/or Reinhart to consider.

    Forwards – Hall, RNH, Draisaitl are locks. Eberle if he’s still here. Aside from that, only Pouliot and Maroon to consider.

    It’s a tough decision, especially if a guy like Reinhart takes the next step in the off-season. It also depends how comfortable the Oilers would be to losing Sekera, and perhaps they would have to protect him anyways due to his NMC.

  71. PerryK says:

    wheatnoil,

    Regarding your work on ZEn & Zex, thank you very much.

    I am really looking forward to your compilation. Please advise when it comes out. Thank you. @P3rryK

  72. Pastor of Disaster says:

    One-Timer: We were listening to SoulTown in the car when Timmy Thomas (not the goalie) came on the air, and my daughter goes, “What the heck?That’s that Drake song!”

    Aparently Mr. Thomas is just fine with the rip-off.

    I wonder if Timmy Thomas pumped Drake’s tires.

  73. McSorley33 says:

    So people want to trade a 6’4 215 pound 21 year old – elite skating Defenceman……

    From an organization that has been dressing Whitney, Ference, Nikitin, etc, etc,

    We need *more* elite talent defenceman….

    Get good Defencmen. Keep good Defencemen.

    He just turned 21!

    Can we give Darnell a Couple of NHL seasons to learn the game?

    Talent, size and skill like Darnell’s don’t just fall off trees….

  74. who says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You’d rather protect 4 F 4 D than 7 F 3 D? From THIS crew?

    Interesting debate. This is the way I see it (assuming the team has to protect no move contracts). Your choices are
    8 skaters
    Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Drai
    Sek, Klef, Dav, Griff?
    Would be exposing a lot of forwards to protect Griff. On the other hand I don’t know if any of the exposed forwards are vital to the teams success, certainly not irreplaceable. Would miss Poo but it might be good to shed that contract. Maroon seems like very good value but that is an awful small sample size. Yak still has that potential and if he ever starts to score could look cheap at 2.5 million.
    If the Oilers trade for another top 4 dman then this option makes a lot more sense as it would probably cost one of the four listed forwards and would give you 4 legit dmen to protect.
    7 forwards, 3 dmen
    Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Drai, Poo, Maroon, Yak
    Sek, Klef, Dav
    To me this option only makes sense If you are not adding a dman this summer. I am not convinced that the Oilers need to protect all these forwards but I don’t know that they have any younger guys that are worth worrying about. Maybe JJ or Pak but that seems like a stretch.

  75. PerryK says:

    Water Fire:

    …… To my eye what really holds them back is the inability of so many players to do simple plays well and win their battle or put the puck to the right place. McLellan certainly doesn’t like it. Part of it is ability and part is discipline. Once they push past this they will be a really good team. …..

    McLellan has a system that is fairly complex overall, but very simple for Zone Entries; basically a dump & chase.

    From my observations, that leads to dump-in followed immediately by a zone exit for the opponents. I think he relies far too heavily on predictable plays at the blue line. Oilers have 2 very excellent controlled entry players in McD and Hall, as well as some other fine puck carrying forwards. Not using their skills is a sin! There are so many times that I see Hall and McD get to the blue line, go over the blue line under control and then dump the puck in corner as if they just remembered the Coach’s preaching! I, for one, would love a more open and creative system, at least for the top 2 lines.

  76. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: I knew the outcome of the game and knew that they got killed in the corgis when I watched it and still couldn’t figure out how they got fed that bad. Like LT (and G Money), I thought they did well by eye.

    I’m relieved to see this morning that so many others had ‘seen him goods’ on a number of Oiler players, even as the fancies were barking hard.

    One thing to bear in mind is that our impressions may very well have been 100% reversed if, say, Talbot had been just OK and let in three goals and we lost 3-2. i.e. outcome bias is something you always have to watch for. In that case, we might have had scathing criticism for the defensive crew – and been equally justified!

    The other is that I went back and watched a few highlights and one thing of note is that it happened quite a bit that the Oilers would get trapped in a bit of a tire fire, and struggle to regain possession.

    However, they did do a reasonable job of keeping the cycle to the perimeter – which presumably is why the one ‘shot battle’ that the Oilers did win is shot distance – 32 vs 28 feet.

    David Staples’ numbers do seem to confirm this – his numbers show that the Oilers won the scoring chance battle, both vanilla and Grade A, over the Canucks.

    Secondly, part of the ‘seen him good’ on both Oesterle and especially Reinhart is that the guy who often eventually did break the cycle and then skate the puck calmly out of trouble was GR.

    So I think the eye definitely picked up that measure – as I would say did Wheat’s zone exit numbers.

    That’s an important positive measure, but we also shouldn’t forget that this was in fact preceded by them getting fed for a while, and in the ideal world, that ‘calm move under pressure’ occurs a whole lot sooner than it did.

  77. Johnny Larue says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Wrong he does not have to be protected and there is no way you trade Nurse he will end up being our Chara

  78. Bad Seed says:

    I’m just glad that Shy Pete is at the helm going into this expansion draft. Can you imagine the mess that MacT and the boys would make of this?

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Reinhart did block 8 shots last night which (assuming all at even strenght, likely not quite true) equals 8 plays nullified and a Corsi of -8.

    Which is why I prefer Fenwick or just plain old shots.

  80. Water Fire says:

    Lois Lowe:
    I thought Osterle had a couple really glaring mistakes. At this point, I am as comfortable with him than I was with Jultz. Reinhart also struggled to my eye, but he did make a few excellent reads.

    Hall was a force last night and McDavid is just silly.

    With an actual NHL D corps this team might actually compete most nights.

    I remain optimistic. The goal differential is the first sign that things are improving, and I don’t think it’s all Talbot.

    Both Pittsburgh and Chicago had a massive improvement in GD, and still finished bottom 5, before they started winning a lot more than they were losing.

    I didn’t see Osterle good last night either, although I could only catch parts of the game.

    If he’s serious about the NHL he had better add some muscle to that 6 foot frame. No reason he can’t get up to 200 pounds at that height. Sekera is. It mystifies me how these kids go into an NHL dressing room and see what most of the experienced players look like, and don’t get that they have to develop themselves to the fullest.

  81. StixMalone says:

    McSorley33:
    So people want to trade a 6’4215 pound 21 year old – elite skating Defenceman……

    From an organization that has been dressing Whitney, Ference, Nikitin, etc, etc,

    We need *more* elite talent defenceman….

    Get good Defencmen. Keep good Defencemen.

    He just turned 21!

    Can we give Darnell a Couple of NHL seasons to learn the game?

    Talent, size and skill like Darnell’s don’t just fall off trees….

    Exactly! I am sure Chia pet will wheel and deal to get Hamonic without giving up Nurse. This of course is if Snow doesn’t wheel and deal with Winterpeg. There is that to worry about. We just might not get Hamonic and then sh*t will hit the fan on all the forums screaming for the firing of someone again…..

  82. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Which is why I prefer Fenwick

    Or, ya know … Fenwicks weighted for danger by distance and shot type … maybe … if such a thing even existed … 🙂

  83. stush18 says:

    PerryK: McLellan has a system that is fairly complex overall, but very simple for Zone Entries; basically a dump & chase.

    From my observations, that leads to dump-in followed immediately by a zone exit for the opponents.I think he relies far too heavily on predictable plays at the blue line.Oilers have 2 very excellent controlled entry players in McD and Hall, as well as some other fine puck carrying forwards.Not using their skills is a sin!There are so many times that I see Hall and McD get to the blue line, go over the blue line under control and then dump the puck in corner as if they just remembered the Coach’s preaching!I, for one, would love a more open and creative system, at least for the top 2 lines.

    The only time the oilers dump the puck in is when they have unequal attacking numbers, or when they are placing it in a spot.

    The oilers should dump it more often, because with their speed they can make the defensemen widen their gap as they anticipate the dump in.

    I really doubt mclellan is telling them dump to dump it in every time.

  84. highgloveside says:

    Couple points/questions

    1) nuge/Drai/Hall metrics cant judge when a team is down by 2 pushing and taking chances and they are playing conservative and nit pushing offense

    2) Nurse needs 40 games in AHL next season, healthy D should help, he cannot learn in NHL

    3) If expansion draft is announced, PC will only add 1 RD and keep Fayne or they will loos one RD they get.

    4) if expansion, better odds OC does make first pick or moves down because you have to orotect who they would get in return of the pick.

    5) if they pick Laine, I doubt he plays in NHL next year. One more year in Europe or AHL to get used to ice/game. Rare a European makes successful transition after drafted

    6) curious when McD has poor possession games when he visually dominates, is it the D letting him down or Eberle? He doesn’t seem to make many individual defensive mistakes. Guessing Eberle could have some responsibility

    7) if expansion, PC will nit be able to make all the moves he otherwise would. Cant bring in too many players you cant protect just for 1 year.

  85. One-Timer says:

    Water Fire: I didn’t see Osterle good last night either, although I could only catch parts of the game.

    If he’s serious about the NHL he had better add some muscle to that 6 foot frame. No reason he can’t get up to 200 pounds at that height. Sekera is. It mystifies me how these kids go into an NHL dressing room and see what most of the experienced players look like, and don’t get that they have to develop themselves to the fullest.

    I’m not sure that it’s a simple matter for a 23-year-old to pack on 20 lbs of muscle in-season while blowing through 5000 cals a day. Not without some chemical assistance, anyway.

  86. who says:

    highgloveside:
    Couple points/questions

    1) nuge/Drai/Hall metrics cant judge when a team is down by 2 pushing and taking chances and they are playing conservative and nit pushing offense

    2) Nude needs 40 games in AHL next season, healthy D should help, he cannot learn in NHL

    3) If expansion draft is announced, PC will only add 1 RD and keep Fayne or they will loos one RD they get.

    4) if expansion, better odds OC does make first pick or moves down because you have to orotect who they would get in return of the pick.

    5) if they pick Laine, I doubt he plays in NHL next year.One more year in Europe or AHL to get used to ice/game.Rare a European makes successful transition after drafted

    6) curious when McD has poor possession games when he visually dominates, is it the D letting him down or Eberle?He doesn’t seem to make many individual defensive mistakes.Guessing Eberle could have some responsibility

    7) if expansion, PC will nit be able to make all the moves he otherwise would.Cant bring in too many players you cant protect just for 1 year.

    One more thing to note. It seems to me that the oilers would be better off if the expansion draft happens in 2017 rather than 2018. Far fewer assets to protect if it happens sooner.

  87. One-Timer says:

    highgloveside:
    2) Nude needs 40 games in AHL next season

    If this is some kind of Bakersfield promo gimmick for 2016/17, I can tell you right now I won’t be watching.

  88. hunter1909 says:

    Bad Seed:
    I’m just glad that Shy Pete is at the helm going into this expansion draft.Can you imagine the mess that MacT and the boys would make of this?

    When will people stop blaming Lowe, MacT for the current mess?

    You’d think the team’s been out of the playoffs for the last ten years.

  89. Gret99zky says:

    rickithebear: He would be dropping down in comp facing 2nd’s

    Meh.

    I’ll bet LT can do more with 1978 than most of us could do with an entire decade.

    Saw him good.

  90. frjohnk says:

    StixMalone: Exactly! I am sure Chia pet will wheel and deal to get Hamonic without giving up Nurse. This of course is if Snow doesn’t wheel and deal with Winterpeg. There is that to worry about. We just might not get Hamonic and then sh*t will hit the fan on all the forums screaming for the firing of someone again…..

    In the case of an expansion draft, If it’s not Trouba for Hamonic deal then I think almost by default Snow is dialling Chia.

    Most teams will protect 3D and 7F rather than 8 skaters.

    So I don’t see the Jets or the Flames spending assets to get Hamonic as whoever out of these teams would get Hamonic would either have to expose a significant Dman or only protect 4 forwards.

    Only protecting 4 forwards would not be good asset management.

    Hamonic wants to come to western canada and it’s a good possibility that Edmonton may be the only team that would fit.

    So of course we wouldn’t get him 🙂

  91. frjohnk says:

    G Money: Or, ya know … Fenwicks weighted for danger by distance and shot type … maybe … if such a thing even existed …

    Just like unicorns, its a myth.

    To believe otherwise is a fireable offense

  92. Gret99zky says:

    RE: expansion draft

    Anyone know if players on IR or LTIR are eligible/protected?

    Is there a potential loophole there?

  93. Chris says:

    Lowetide,

    I feel like I should point out how appropriate an Oasis reasonable expectations series would be.

    Firstly, you have evocative song titles – Don’t look back in anger, wonderwall, standing on the shoulders of giants.

    Secondly, you have unrealized potential and internal strife that just screams Oilers.

    Thirdly, you do have some of the best music of the 90s.

  94. RENNAVATE says:

    Lowetide: My daughter loves Drake, so I could probably cobble together something. However, so far ‘solo albums by lead singers of famous English rock bands’ is in the lead, and gives me a chance to introduce everyone to the collected works of solo Roger Daltrey.

    If this comes to pass, I’m the person to consult re Aubrey Drake Graham (although I’m sure your daughter would do a great job too!).

  95. RENNAVATE says:

    One-Timer: We were listening to SoulTown in the car when Timmy Thomas (not the goalie) came on the air, and my daughter goes, “What the heck?That’s that Drake song!”

    Aparently Mr. Thomas is just fine with the rip-off.

    It’s called sampling, and rest assured Thomas got paid.

  96. Магия 10 says:

    rickithebear: One of the 3 D I would trade Hall for is out with staff infection surgery!

    I assume you mean staph infection. Staff infection is a malady caused by deficiencies in the developmental environment..

  97. square_wheels says:

    Anyone else watching Phi/Pitt ? Hagelin having a nice game but another player Sather sent away that’s since fallen off a cliff.

    Maatta looks like an 11 yr old !

  98. Alpine says:

    RENNAVATE: If this comes to pass, I’m the person to consult re Aubrey Drake Graham (although I’m sure your daughter would do a great job too!).

    A few to start, i reached on some

    Star67 – Pouliot

    Fancy – Eberle

    Worst Behaviour – Kassian

    Make Me Proud – Davidson (for Mr McCurdy)

    Headlines/Legend – McDavid

    Energy – Hall

    Buried Alive Interlude – Yak

    Know Yourself – Drai

    Now & Forever – Nuge

    Take Care – Klef

    Tuscan Leather – Sekera

    We’ll Be Fine – Talbot

  99. wheatnoil says:

    Thanks all for the positive feedback. Glad the numbers are useful for some! It’s kind of fun to track… but then I am a nerd. I literally have my spreadsheet out during the game!

  100. wheatnoil says:

    Something else I came across…

    I took the top even-strength scorer for the opposition the last 3 games (James Neal, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Daniel Sedin) and looked at how long each D-man played against him.

    % TOI (5×5) against the other team’s top scorer:

    Sekera / Fayne – 43% (!!)
    Oesterle – 32%
    Reinhart – 28%
    Nurse – 23%
    Clendening – 17%
    Nikitin – 14%

    Sekera & Fayne are playing 43% of their time on ice against Neal, Tarasenko, or Daniel Sedin! That’s ridiculous heavy lifting!

  101. natejax97 says:

    Defense discussion.

    1. I don’t think “trade Klefbom for Hamonic”, I think “trade for Hamonic to play with Klefbom”. I think that would be an fantastic duo we are looking for.

    2. Nurse will be ready to make a significant impact on this hockey team in 2017-2018, and a raw talent with the grit and determination he shows should be treated as untouchable at this point. I would definitely put him and Reinhart in the minors for the year and let them play together and develop if possible. Is his ceiling as high as I think?

    3. Fayne might be too much of a cap hit to play a 3 pairing role, and I do not see him in a first or second pairing role on a playoff team. As difficult as it seems, he may need to leave to make room for a better fit and more cap space.

    4. If we can do 1 Right handed D-man this year and 1 next, is that adequate? I would worry about protected players in an expansion scenario.

    5. If we sign Gryba and he can play with Davidson on the third pair, is that a really good, low cost NHL third pairing?

    If a deal can be reached to trade Fayne, then sign a guy like Adam Pardy as a #7. Pardy is big, a vet that can play pretty well, and he plays left or right. If there is no deal available for a Fayne, I think it really changes/limits the defensive scenario’s the Oilers have in front of them.

    One last question: would you trade Sekera for Hamonic and retain part salary to make it work? Knowing by doing this that Nurse or Reinhart would be in the NHL next year. I only ask this because I am so reluctant to trade Nurse or Reinhart, but sooner or later room will need to be made on the left side of the Oilers defense.

    Thanks!!

  102. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You’d rather protect 4 F 4 D than 7 F 3 D? From THIS crew?

    McDavid, Nurse exempt

    Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Hall, Eberle are the only 4 forwards who need protection.
    Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson, new D (i.e. Hamonic or equivalent)
    Talbot

    Unprotected…requires around $18 million in players available to be selected. 25% of cap

    Fayne, Reinhart ~ $4.5 million
    Pouliot, Yakupov, Maroon ~ $8 million
    Letestu, + Brossoit ~ $2.55 million
    Pakarenin, Kassian, Khaira, 13th and 14th forward ~ estimate $4 million
    =====================================
    Total $19 million

    One probably cannot make the $18 million dollar threshold going with 7 forwards and 3 D. Plus I’d protection a dirt cheap Davidson over easily replaceable forwards.

    Many people here are ignoring or can’t add to $18 million.

  103. godot10 says:

    Pastor of Disaster: I’ve long thought the best hip hop RE artist would be Kanye.Or Beastie Boys.Or Public Enemy.Maybe an all-rap RE, after LT accidentally watches “Straight Outta Compton” on Pay Per View, thinking he had ordered The Revenant.

    EDIT: I see LT gave a solid “it’s not out of the realm of possibility” regarding Drake.The heart is a-flutter.

    If one is going the rap route, don’t forget The Roots.

  104. russ99 says:

    Fayne kind of won me over yesterday, he played a simple yet effective game, and didn’t get overthink in the D-zone.

    But with his cap number we really should be able to do better. If he stays next year (doubtful) and is the veteran mentor with Nurse, that wouldn’t be the worst thing

    We can’t trade Sekera, and why would we? Other than that initial 5-8 games he’s been rock solid and our only quality defenseman in all three zones.

  105. godot10 says:

    natejax97:
    Defense discussion.

    3.Fayne might be too much of a cap hit to play a 3 pairing role, and I do not see him in a first or second pairing role on a playoff team.As difficult as it seems, he may need to leave to make room for a better fit and more cap space.

    The OIlers need Fayne’s salary to make the 25% salary cap threshold for the expansion draft. 3rd pairing RD next year.

  106. Магия 10 says:

    godot10: The OIlers need Fayne’s salary to make the 25% limit for the expansion draft.3rd pairing RD next year.

    Exactly. Teams might be lining up before the expansion draft to pick up expiring contracts with big cap hits to expose. Curious to see if rosters are frozen from trade deadline to expansion draft

  107. 99266in87 says:

    PerryK,

    PerryK: McLellan has a system that is fairly complex overall, but very simple for Zone Entries; basically a dump & chase.

    From my observations, that leads to dump-in followed immediately by a zone exit for the opponents.I think he relies far too heavily on predictable plays at the blue line.Oilers have 2 very excellent controlled entry players in McD and Hall, as well as some other fine puck carrying forwards.Not using their skills is a sin!There are so many times that I see Hall and McD get to the blue line, go over the blue line under control and then dump the puck in corner as if they just remembered the Coach’s preaching!I, for one, would love a more open and creative system, at least for the top 2 lines.

    To me, coach used that tactic to back off the defencemen so they think dump in. The lines aren’t formulated to aggressively forecheck like other teams ( Ducks ) but if I imagine coach ahead of the curve, in this year that he is exposing this system as an oiler system, I’m pretty sure he knows he has those horses and once the back end balances out and can move pucks ahead consistently then we will be watching a different team. On some of the plays that there is carry in, F2 is not charging the net anyways.

  108. rickithebear says:

    Магия 10: I assume you mean staph infection. Staff infection is a malady caused by deficiencies in the developmental environment..

    Thanks for the education on spelling of staff/ph.

    Most staff infections are caused by most managers.
    They are known for stealing credit for others work. (Manager speak: getting the job done)
    They are deer in headlights when you discuss technical aspects of department work.
    The first thing they point out is spelling cause they are technically dumber than a bag of hammers.

    You are not!

  109. rickithebear says:

    There are some on here Who scream manager.

  110. Gordies Elbow says:

    godot10,

    Forwards: Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Maroon, Yakupov, player X
    Defense: Sekera (NMC), Klefbom, Davidson
    Goaltender: Talbot

    Not needing protection: 2016 draft picks, McDavid, Slepyshev (maybe), Platzer, Betker, Nurse, Chase, Sallinen

    This leaves Pouliot, Fayne, Ference, Korpikoski, Hendricks, Letestu, Lander, LaLeggia, Khaira, Moroz, Yakimov, Simpson, Brossoit, Christoffer, and Laurikainen available, for $25m in current contracts. Likely Edmonton signs a few more (e.g. Gryba, Kassian) that would be made available as well. RFA’s that need contracts to count: Kassian, Pakarinen, Gazdic, Clendening, Musil, Pitlick, Lundstrom and Kessy.

    As to player X above?

    Personally, I’d start playing Griffin Reinhart on the wing, and give him more minutes as a forward than a defender. He’s the perfect player for an expansion draft, and we have a forward slot open. 😉

  111. Norman Greenbaum says:

    rickithebear: You are not!

    You are not what? Are you just going to leave us hanging? Poor grammar, even for a bear. Now, I need the shots/popcorn sold numbers by LT’s next post, I promised him I’d have it. I’ll totally put in a good word for you.

    Signed,

    A. Middlemanager.

  112. Norman Greenbaum says:

    rickithebear:
    There are some on here Who scream manager.

    Aren’t you one of them?

    *who*

  113. Магия 10 says:

    Gordies Elbow: Personally, I’d start playing Griffin Reinhart on the wing, and give him more minutes as a forward than a defender. He’s the perfect player for an expansion draft, and we have a forward slot open

    Totally can see Byfuglien & Burns at forward next year.

  114. Yegfoundation says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Hi NYCOIL, how are you enjoying your time in Japan, and how’ the photography journey going? I hope you don’t mind an investment question (please ignore if you do mind).

    I’ve got a decision to make on investing some money. This is money that I plan to use in about 5 years. RRSP is topped up, but I haven’t contributed to a TFSA yet, but certainly plan to max it out.

    I’ve met with one of the large banks and rejected their proposal to invest in mutual funds with fee’s in the 2.5% range. I then met with an investment company, affiliated with a large bank, and rejected their offer to manage my money (they call it Investment Consultant Services) for 2.5% in yearly fee’s.

    Other options I’ve considered it staying conservative until the markets stabilize, and then investing in either ETF’s or using a service like The Motley Fool to pick a group of Blue Chip stocks.

    Do you have any suggestions or things I may want to consider before making a decision?

    Thanks for your consideration.

  115. Магия 10 says:

    godot10: Unprotected…requires around $18 million in players available to be selected. 25% of cap

    Apparently all unexpired contracts can count to the 25% even if they are about to go UFA. Likewise that players with NMCs have to be protected and that they use up protection quota.

    So here’s the ugly question. If Ference has not retired before the draft will the league rule he must be protected as UFA? or do they have enough sense to only require protection on continuing NMCs.

  116. highgloveside says:

    One-Timer: If this is some kind of Bakersfield promo gimmick for 2016/17, I can tell you right now I won’t be watching.

    OOps my bad, stupid phone auto correct. fixed haha

  117. Магия 10 says:

    Gret99zky:
    RE: expansion draft

    Anyone know if players on IR or LTIR are eligible/protected?

    Is there a potential loophole there?

    Gotta think they can be claimed. Interesting to see if LTIR with NMC must use up protection quota.

    Another loophole would be having a deal pocketed with a UFA and gambling he won’t be claimed. Could be done players extended right after they’re not claimed

  118. OF17 says:

    This expansion draft is going to lead to all sorts of funky things in the next year. Always happens when you distort incentives to this effect.

    1st year pros are going to have way more value than usual this offseason just from a value conservation perspective. Good news for Nurse at least, since he’s worth more than he should be both from a trade and a keep perspective.

    Expansion was a fun idea until I was hit with the realization of what the expansion draft rules would be.

  119. kdunbar says:

    Магия 10,

    That is a great question and one that needs answering before the buy out period.

  120. RexLibris says:

    LOVE the Police idea.

    Question though, would Murder By Numbers be better for Hall or McDavid?

    Although the stalking motif of Every Breath You Take might be good for McDavid. Wrapped Around Your Finger?

    Tea In the Sahara for Ference?

  121. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: Or, ya know … Fenwicks weighted for danger by distance and shot type … maybe … if such a thing even existed …

    haha yeah. I was referring specifically to LT’s Corsi numbers listed in this post, and suggesting that the Corgis don’t tell the whole story. But we all knew that already.

  122. RexLibris says:

    G Money: I’m relieved to see this morning that so many others had ‘seen him goods’ on a number of Oiler players, even as the fancies were barking hard.

    One thing to bear in mind is that our impressions may very well have been 100% reversed if, say, Talbot had been just OK and let in three goals and we lost 3-2. i.e. outcome bias is something you always have to watch for.In that case, we might have had scathing criticism for the defensive crew – and been equally justified!

    The other is that I went back and watched a few highlights and one thing of note is that it happened quite a bit that the Oilers would get trapped in a bit of a tire fire, and struggle to regain possession.

    However, they did do a reasonable job of keeping the cycle to the perimeter – which presumably is why the one ‘shot battle’ that the Oilers did win is shot distance – 32 vs 28 feet.

    David Staples’ numbers do seem to confirm this – his numbers show that the Oilers won the scoring chance battle, both vanilla and Grade A, over the Canucks.

    Secondly, part of the ‘seen him good’ on both Oesterle and especially Reinhart is that the guy who often eventually did break the cycle and then skate the puck calmly out of trouble was GR.

    So I think the eye definitely picked up that measure – as I would say did Wheat’s zone exit numbers.

    That’s an important positive measure, but we also shouldn’t forget that this was in fact preceded by them getting fed for a while, and in the ideal world, that ‘calm move under pressure’ occurs a whole lot sooner than it did.

    I think last night was a night in which the Oilers played some decent hockey but ultimately were saved by very good goaltending against a very weak team.

    Outcome bias is, I believe, a thing here.

    The Canucks have been putting up some terrible possession numbers recently and their goaltending has been bailing them out, when possible. Last night I think we saw two teams with a lot of holes face off and the better goalie won out. It wasn’t an all out firefight because neither defense is strong enough to support that kind of play, but there were chances certainly.

  123. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: McDavid, Nurse exempt

    Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Hall, Eberle are the only 4 forwards who need protection.
    Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson, new D (i.e. Hamonic or equivalent)
    Talbot

    Unprotected…requires around $18 million in players available to be selected. 25% of cap

    Fayne, Reinhart ~ $4.5 million
    Pouliot, Yakupov, Maroon ~ $8 million
    Letestu, + Brossoit ~ $2.55 million
    Pakarenin, Kassian, Khaira, 13th and 14th forward ~ estimate $4 million
    =====================================
    Total$19 million

    One probably cannot make the $18 million dollar threshold going with 7 forwards and 3 D.Plus I’d protection a dirt cheap Davidson over easily replaceable forwards.

    Many people here are ignoring or can’t add to $18 million.

    You make some good points. I have to admit when I first heard the splits I assumed 30 out of 30 teams might default to 7 + 3, with a possible exception for a team like Nashville.

  124. kinger_OIL says:

    Yegfoundation,

    – Do some homework. You are smart to recognize that the banks are going to take you to cleaners on MER’s for such a low amount invested. If you could contribute the max to your TFSA, buy 8 x 5K stocks from the Dividend Aristocrats, and do it online with a discount broker. From this list, pick the stocks that are in the 2.5 – 5% dividend range. Have some fun, do research on them. Balance sectors. Don’t pick the high dividends, below 2% for TFSA. Each year, buy another for $5K:
    http://web.tmxmoney.com/indices.php?section=tsx&index=^TXDV#indexInfo

    – How much has Fayne played with either Nurse or Griff. To me, he’s is the profile of a D that a Griff/Nurse/Davidson would do well with. What do the numbers say?

  125. striatic says:

    GCW_69: Gotta be Bowie.

    Seconded.

  126. Lowetide says:

    We have already done Bowie.

  127. Bank Shot says:

    How about Bowie?

  128. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Yegfoundation,

    Hi there. Are you on Twitter or anything? I think this type of specific discussion is better held off line.

    Edit – but yes, managed mutual funds with high fees have underperformed markets pretty consistently, so you are right to question why you need to pay 2.5 percent on top of everything else.

  129. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bank Shot:
    How about Bowie?

    Bowie was at Woodstock?

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