FINDING NORMAL

When was the last time Oilers fans knew normal? Is there a new normal? As I write this, it occurs to me that most of us are looking for a brand new day, a better place, but identifying that place, defining it, is a distant bell. What is the current normal? What should be the new normal?

IN-A-GADDA-DA-VIDA-UH-HUH, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2014: 4-5-1
  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0
  • Oilers in November 2014: 2-9-3
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in December 2014: 2-8-4
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1
  • Oilers in January 2015: 5-7-1
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2
  • Oilers in February 2015: 5-6-1
  • Oilers in February 2016: 4-8-2
  • Oilers in March 2015: 5-6-3
  • Oilers in March 2016: 6-5-0
  • Oilers after 75 in 2014-15: 22-40-13, 57 points (-71 GD)
  • Oilers after 75 in 2015-16: 29-39-7, 65 points (-38 GD)

Edmonton is running out of track now, it would be nice to hit 30 wins and 70 points but this week they will be playing at Phoenix, at San Jose and at Los Angeles. This is going to be a tough seven days for the McLellan Oilers.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

oilers blue nov 30

  • Reinhart—Oesterle did good things again last night, and this time the numbers supported them. GR made a dandy play on the first goal, paying back Colorado for the Landeskog thundering hit on the first goal against. Oesterle did a nice job moving the puck by pass or shanks’ ponies. He is going to get into trouble in all physical battles, but his motor skills are NHL-calibre.
  • Nurse—Clendening had good moments too, Nurse had the wheels turning and could have cashed during the second period (think it hit Maroon) when he drove to the net in a timely fashion. We talked about him yesterday, and about his offensive future. I think he is far better than this season has shown, remain convinced he will hit 25-35 points as a mature NHL player. Clendening isn’t big enough or strong enough, he reminds me of Phil Larsen, but he has some skill.
  • Sekera—Fayne had an off night to my eye, seemed to be slow in making decisions. Sekera was too much calm and too little urgency for me, Fayne struggled when handling the puck. The pairing was caught a lot, an example being Sekera behind the net on one play. I think he was think the Colorado forward would do a fly-by, but he lost possession and it could have been a difficult chance. As it was, Sekera followed the Avs forward to the blue and forced the play outside the blue line. This is the best pairing on the team, but they have been better most every night than they were on Sunday.
  • Laurent Brossoit was good not great, stopping 22 of 25. None that you will call him on, the difference was probably as Todd McLellan suggested (power play).

brossoit ferguson 14154

  • Todd McLellan on Brossoit: “He had some tough looks tonight. He fought through traffic to find rebounds and jams. I don’t think we can sit here and talk about LB’s lack of saves. He was much sharper than he was in games prior.” Source

HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES

  • Two: Taylor Hall, Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon
  • One: Darnell Nurse, Matt Hendricks, Mark Letestu

CENTERS, LAST NIGHT

oil c nov 30

WINGERS, LAST NIGHT

oilers f nov 30

  • Hall—Draisaitl—Pakarinen looked good to me, they won the possession battle handily and Hall posted two high-danger scoring chances. Leon looked plodding, and behind the play a little, one wonders if the long season has worn him down. Pakarinen is winning himself a contract, no way around it. I am not convinced he is or should be one of the 12 forwards starting opening night next season, but they don’t give me a vote and McLellan loves him. I just don’t see the offense, but do respect McLellan’s ability to find it in unusual places. Four SOG, none from the center.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Eberle sawed off the opposition and the line had four high-danger scoring chances. I liked each member of the line for different reasons, and suspect Edmonton could have gotten a point if 97 could have found more clean air. Maroon impacted the game in the offensive zone (although the deflection of Nurse’s shot was bad luck) and I am surprised by his good hands. Eberle moved the puck in a good direction and the line posted 5 SOG. I am prepared to suggest that Maroon behind Hall and Pouliot at LW is a dandy trio—meaning PC doesn’t have to pursue Lucic, although I know he will.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian got the opening Oil goal, all three men figuring in the scoring. If they could do it in the first period, that would be nice. Letestu is much better with muckers, I would keep him on a rig like this one (although he is getting PP chances, even strength with skill doesn’t seem to work for him). Hendricks is a fun player to have on your side, and Kassian deserved the assist for a night of hard work. The line had 4 SOG.
  • Korpikoski—Nuge—Yakupov were in my dog house for most of the night. Silly to waste a fantastic center like this, and McLellan correctly changed things up later in the game. Nuge had a goal, four shots on goal, three takeaways and a blocked shot. Nail had some looks but did not look dangerous, I saw the Finn bad again—it has been a running theme all year.
  • Nuge—McDavid spent 1:30 together, scoring a goal with a 1-0 5×5 Corsi. I wonder if we see this again soon. Hope so. Nugent-Hopkins could give exceptional cover to McDavid, who despite being touched by God is still a rookie, and RNH is a very creative and cerebral player. In these last games, I would like to see a heavy dose of these two men, 5×5 and the power play.
  • The Oilers trading of Nuge would hamper the rebuild in a big way, I think Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan see that from him. If we are talking two-way forwards, Nuge is at the front of the class, and that includes all of the first overalls (although McDavid’s acumen across 200-feet is astounding and he may well pass 93). Peter Chiarelli employed David Krejci in Boston, and the similarities between Nuge and Krejci are obvious.
  • In a real way, the story of RNH this summer is the story of Peter Chiarelli as GM here. Mentioned by Bob Nicholson as being one of the group possibly available early in the season (on a TSN broadcast), passed over for the World Cup of Hockey by his own GM in the initial roster, and certainly in the mix for trade based on rumors from Mark Spector, Ryan Rishaug and others. A question for Peter Chiarelli via the great Bob Dylan: Senor, Senor, can you tell me where we’re heading, Lincoln County Road or Armageddon?

ROOKIE SCORING

ROOKIE SCORING

Connor McDavid, over 82 games, would be on pace for 86 points—as a rookie. The voters have not been kind to the Oilers in the last 25 years, but I would submit to you today that if McDavid was a Toronto Maple Leafs player this vote will be far closer than it is going to be in fact.

EGOR BABENKO

Among the curious prospects bubbling under for this year’s draft is a man named Egor Babenko. He is a 1997 (turned 19 in February) and an undersized (5.09, 157) RW who shoots left. Hailing from Tyumen, Russia (the first Russian settlement in Siberia, 1586—Jagr was born one year later), he played damn well in the MHL (Russian junior league) but came over to Canada anyway. He went 67, 29-40-69 on a very good Lethbridge Hurricanes team this year and at least one member of our community likes what he sees:

  • Poster Cash Money: (Babenko) is fantastic, owns the puck in the o-zone, cuts hard to the net, fine hockey player.

These little guys can and do make the NHL, sounds like Babenko has altered his game to fit the North American style quickly—that speaks to intelligence. I don’t know how deep my draft coverage will get this time, but if it reaches 120 names as it did a year ago, Babenko will be on it. His NHLE is 82, 10-13-23. I will post these from time to time during the spring as we get closer to draft day.

RED ROTTEN!

  • Todd McLellan on the power play:  “There’s a lot of talk about having a quarterback and stuff like that – it had nothing to do with the quarterback on the power play. That had to do with the forwards – really high-end, talented skilled forwards you put out there that can win you game in that situation. And just turnover after turnover after turnover. Disappointing. This was a pretty group that was red rotten.” Source

I understand the need for a righty (Letestu is getting chances, has all season) and would suggest that McDavid, Nuge and Hall are all fantastic lefties. Eberle is taking heat for dusting off the puck, but he surely is the best RH sniping option on the team. Nail received a pass from 14 last night just as he left the photo, incredibly bad timing some are placing on Eberle but I have to say 10 has to stand in there—where the hell was he going? Anyway, the power play has left lots of points on the table and has to be fixed.

If push comes to shove, Lee Stempniak is available and God knows Oilers fans are familiar with that guy. The list of availables is large (here), but it is important to remember that when adding righties the sheer number of lefthanded men may need to be culled. The top 9F could be housed by available LH men (Hall, Pouliot, Maroon, McDavid, Nuge, Leon, Eberle, Yakupov, Pakarinen or Kassian) at a 77 percent clip (7 of 9) as it stands. Someone has to leave the Leftorium.

wood in penelope

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show to start the week, lots of Oilers and more. TSN1260 at 10, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Sidney Crosby is back, even though he never went anywhere. Plus the Kings are romping again.
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260 Oil Kings PBP. They couldn’t solve the riddle over an entire season, so it is on the road to Medicine Hat for the OK.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper and Blue plus The SuperFan. We will discuss the Oilers, the blue and what can be accomplished in the season’s coda.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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139 Responses to "FINDING NORMAL"

  1. Norman Greenbaum says:

    “The Oilers trading of Nuge would hamper the rebuild in a big way, I think Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan see that from him. If we are talking two-way forwards, Nuge is at the front of the class, and that includes all of the first overalls (although McDavid’s acumen across 200-feet is astounding and he may well pass 93). Peter Chiarelli employed David Krejci in Boston, and the similarities between Nuge and Krejci are obvious”

    I just can’t agree with this. Hamper the rebuild? In a big way? A tad dramatic, especially if Nuge brings you that piece on D. Especially as the Oilers were OK 5×5 when Nuge was down.

    Let’s get this straight: Hamonic doesn’t win us a cup, but he’s a start. Adding Demers, even better. Someone like Brent Burns? Now we’re cooking with gas.

    We are absolutely going to hate the trade when it comes, but I seriously thought people here were starting to come around to the necessity of such a transaction.

    We are such foolish romantics that there was even a post yesterday saying we shouldn’t trade Musil. In fact it stated we’d be stupid to. And he’s what number in the queue to get an NHL shot? We fall in love with our prospects, our stars and our journeymen, warts and all. The fact there was still love for Schultz at the end proves this.

    I don’t know guys. I seriously don’t. I can speculate, cogitate and suggest, but they’re just my opinions on how I see things. Are we seriously overvaluing our players? Are they as good as we see them.

    The only thing I know for definite is to remain flexible and keep your sense of humour. OK, two things. But flexibility is the most important. You see the opportunity to improve your team overall at the loss a quality player? You do it. Nobody said you had to be grinning like a Chesire cat the whole time.

    Do I want to trade Nuge or Eberle or Hall or Nurse? No. I want to see Hall break into the o-zone, dish to Nuge who saucers perfectly to Ebs who uses those sick hands in close to win Stanley. Then I want Nurse to get the Norris that year. But cest la vie. Que sera. Ain’t going to happen folks, anymore than swapping fucking bit pieces for NHL players of worth. And now some don’t even want to trade the bit pieces.

    Thanks for letting me get that off my chest. Agree with it, tear it down, it’s all the same, but I feel better.

    The cycle has to be broken, and if a magical fairy told me that if one of the afore mentioned players were to be traded, then the Oilers would make the playoffs next year, then I would 1) take my meds, then 2) take the fairy’s offer.

  2. wunderbar says:

    The Edmonton Oilers will not play a playoff game in my 20’s. I was 19 when they played G7 2006 SCF. I will be 30 next April.

    You have 15 year olds who will not remember a playoff game. You will have 20 year olds who were 9 the last time there was a playoff game.

    That is a dangerous reality for the team. An entire generation is growing up without spring hockey in this town.

  3. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Strong morning-after post as usual, LT. I have throughly enjoyed (or should I say, “appreciated”) these throughout the season.

    I had the pleasure of attending last night’s game, great seats on Row 8 directly behind Oilers’ net. Had a real good view of the d-men in the first & third periods, especially the left defenders. Saw Reinhart good, Nurse good, Sekera average.

    Reinhart was a real commanding presence, impressed me with his puck movement, strong, accurate passes that always gave the receiver a chance to make a play on the puck. A couple of times I looked askance at his positioning as he chased a player out of the slot area, but that seems to be a coaching thing. His bigger issues are when he has to make a quick decision in a defensive situation, e.g. the first Avs goal when he stepped up to the passer while the goal scorer snuck free behind him. Mind you, when you have one guy trying to cover two opponents in the low slot while three other guys are having a team meeting in the corner of the rink I tend to give the one guy a bit of a break, even as he is the one “also in frame” when the puck goes in because at least he is IN the fucking frame.

    Nurse’s athleticism is extraordinary, terrific speed in such a big man. Had me wondering what it would have been like to see Secretariat run as a yearling. Doesn’t always have the best plan as to where to go but can get there in a real hurry. Had a great chance to score but his skills deserted him at that crucial moment as he bobbled the puck once, twice, then scooped it off the side of the net while falling awkwardly to the ice. I hope he gets to the point where the game slows down for him in the key areas. Seeing how often he was in the play while Oilers had the puck was hard to square with “1 point in 41 games” but his shots were all muffins into the goalie’s mid section which didn’t help, still you’d think the guy would get an apple once in a while just by osmosis.

    Sekera wn a lot of races to pucks, moved it OK, but that pair had its issues when not in control of the disc which was often.

    Up front poor Nuge was on an island, Yakupov was on the moon and Korpikoski 20,000 leagues under the sea. Anybody who thinks this team doesn’t miss Benoit Pouliot is watching a different game than I am.

  4. stush18 says:

    I’ve been saying for a while, but I would love okposo to be signed.

    Wouldn’t mind dale Weise either, but that would probably render kassian expendable. Not sure sure if there is really that much of a difference between the two players.

  5. letmycamerongo says:

    Blue sky scenario is trading Ebs for Haminic, signing Demers, drafting Laine.

    This leaves us really only having to protect Hall, Draisatl, Nuge of the forwards, letting us protect 5 dmen: Sekera, Hamonic, Klefbom, Demers and Davidson.

    I think that sets us up well for the future, and I think could be a playoff caliber team. But hell we’ve been saying that for years.

  6. Offside says:

    What sucks the most about having to trade one of the wunderkids, is that it didn’t need to happen if the team was managed even semi-competently. Unfortunately, at least one will need to be sacrificed to make up for organizational mistakes

  7. Henry says:

    The breakout on the powerplay was nice in San Jose four years ago. It worked if Marleau was taking a perfect cross ice pass from Thornton. Amazingly, the league has adjusted. The Oiler were terrible with their variation on it last year and are just as bad executing it with SJ’s coaching staff. Combined with the wall teams set up to counter the breakout, you have turnovers 15′ inside the blueline and lots of wasted effort. With the skating and skill the Oilers have, they don’t need to overthink the breakout.

  8. pboy says:

    Have the Oiler’s announced what exactly was wrong with Davidson’s leg? Will he be back by spring training next year? Have they officially ruled Klefbom out for the season yet? I understand not being to free with info (maybe I’ve missed these two announcement and in that case, sorry for wasting everyone’s time) but this seems to be beyond radio silence.

  9. pboy says:

    Henry,

    I can’t help but think that this is much more on the player’s than on the multiple coaching staffs. When they get the puck to the net and decide to outwork the other team, they create scoring chances. When they pass the puck around and look for perfect passing seams, they end up chasing the puck back to their own zone. Regardless of personnel they have or don’t have (a hammer from the point), the players lack of will determines 90% + of their effectiveness IMO.

  10. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’m Famous!!!!! Thanks LT, it’s nice to know people are paying attention to my musings.

    Babenko had a bit of a cold stretch there, but it coincided with a horrible rash of injuries that hit the team in the second half of the season. The Canes went from being perfectly healthy to missing all three of their top C’s for a period, and their top two C’s (Georgio Estephan and over-ager Justin Gutierrez) for an extended stretch (Big Gooty looks like he might be done, concussion I believe, damn shame).

    The offence on the team is driven by Estephan/Burke/Wong and Babenko has always played on a second line with Gutierrez, a 6’4 20 y.o. who hasn’t been an offensive difference maker until this year. Babenko and Gooty had great chemistry and when he went out there was a period when Babs wasn’t producing. I think Oilers fans can sympathize.

    The adjustment period appears to be over, and despite missing his ideal partner he’s back to putting up points.

    Man I’m looking forward to watching a team I care about play in the playoffs. This team has completely spoiled me and my family over the past 2 years. They’ve basically adopted my 5 y.o. as team mascot, to the point that a picture of him and his good buddy Andrew Nielsen was the ticket for the final game of the season the other night. They bring my kids into the dressing room, they host skate with the team nights, it’s unbelievable. And I can actually afford to go with my family, which is nice.

    And they won 9-3 against their hated rival in the final game of the season. And the goalie scored.

    It’s been a very nice change of pace from banging my head against the wall watching the Oilers. It makes me look forward to watching a team not only for McDavid, but because I actually believe they will accomplish something.

    Thank god for the WHL.

  11. Caramel Batman says:

    Norman Greenbaum,

    You don’t break the cycle by compounding your mistakes. You break the cycle by making good decisions.

    RNH for Hamonic doesn’t make the team better. RNH is too good and Hamonic not good enough.

    Nurse for Hamonic, on the other hand, does make the team better.

    You break the cycle by identifying those players whose perceived value is greater than their actual value.

    That’s Nurse. That isn’t Hall or RNH. It might be Eberle, I’m not sure.

  12. who says:

    Pretty average effort last night. Thought they had a pretty good first, a dismal second, and a slightly better third. Still could have had a win if Maroon has a better first period. Just needs to score on one of his 2 empty nets and get out of the way for Nurse to score on his. They might have been up 2-0 after the first and then it’s all whole different ballgame.
    So far the loading up of two lines has been a total failure. Game has gone south each time they tried it. Still think they should keep trying it for the rest of the season. Sooner or later something has got to click. Or not.
    Looks to me that the team is supposed to be playing man defense in their zone which may be why it appears that the d are chasing guys all over the place. As a five man unit they looked fairly good at this at times. If someone loses their guy it becomes real noticeable, real quick. Maybe that’s what happened on the first goal. Looked like Drai and the other dman got locked on the same guy, leaving Reinhart with a 2 on 1

  13. dadoug12 says:

    Norman Greenbaum:
    “The Oilers trading of Nuge would hamper the rebuild in a big way, I think Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan see that from him. If we are talking two-way forwards, Nuge is at the front of the class, and that includes all of the first overalls (although McDavid’s acumen across 200-feet is astounding and he may well pass 93). Peter Chiarelli employed David Krejci in Boston, and the similarities between Nuge and Krejci are obvious”

    I just can’t agree with this.Hamper the rebuild? In a big way?A tad dramatic, especially if Nuge brings you that piece on D.Especially as the Oilers were OK 5×5 when Nuge was down.

    Let’s get this straight:Hamonic doesn’t win us a cup, but he’s a start.Adding Demers, even better.Someone like Brent Burns?Now we’re cooking with gas.

    We are absolutely going to hate the trade when it comes, but I seriously thought people here were starting to come around to the necessity of such a transaction.

    We are such foolish romantics that there was even a post yesterday saying we shouldn’t trade Musil.In fact it stated we’d be stupid to.And he’s what number in the queue to get an NHL shot?We fall in love with our prospects, our stars and our journeymen, warts and all.The fact there was still love for Schultz at the end proves this.

    I don’t know guys.I seriously don’t.I can speculate, cogitate and suggest, but they’re just my opinions on how I see things.Are we seriously overvaluing our players?Are they as good as we see them.

    The only thing I know for definite is to remain flexible and keep your sense of humour.OK, two things.But flexibility is the most important.You see the opportunity to improve your team overall at the loss a quality player?You do it.Nobody said you had to be grinning like a Chesire cat the whole time.

    Do I want to trade Nuge or Eberle or Hall or Nurse?No.Iwant to see Hall break into the o-zone, dish to Nuge who saucers perfectly to Ebs who uses those sick hands in close to win Stanley.Then I want Nurse to get the Norris that year.But cest la vie.Que sera. Ain’t going to happen folks, anymore than swapping fucking bit pieces for NHL players of worth.And now some don’t even want to trade the bit pieces.

    Thanks for letting me get that off my chest.Agree with it, tear it down, it’s all the same, but I feel better.

    The cycle has to be broken, and if a magical fairy told me that if one of the afore mentioned players were to be traded, then the Oilers would make the playoffs next year, then I would 1) take my meds, then 2) take the fairy’s offer.

    There’s only 1 player on the team that is 100 percent untouchable, , No 97, everyone else if the right deal is there, to make changes and improvements , the trade can and should be made. When you have a record like the last 5 years, thats the way it should be. Dont fall in love with your players, they are just commodities, the team is the most important. b

  14. dadoug12 says:

    Offside:
    What sucks the most about having to trade one of the wunderkids, is that it didn’t need to happen if the team was managed even semi-competently. Unfortunately, at least one will need to be sacrificed to make up for organizational mistakes

    The wunderkids have also been a part of the problem, for a team supposedly with a lot of skill, they dont score that much.

  15. Moose says:

    pboy:
    Have the Oiler’s announced what exactly was wrong with Davidson’s leg? Will he be back by spring training next year? Have they officially ruled Klefbom out for the season yet? I understand not being to free with info (maybe I’ve missed these two announcement and in that case, sorry for wasting everyone’s time) but this seems to be beyond radio silence.

    As frustrating as it is sometimes, I do appreciate the tight-lipped Chia regime, especially in contrast to MacT’s stream of consciousness pressers. While those were great for fans and press corps, it’s just no way to do business.

    I suspect we’ll find out about Davidson and Klefbom on clear-out day, straight from the horses mouth.

  16. RexLibris says:

    pboy: Have the Oiler’s announced what exactly was wrong with Davidson’s leg?

    I think it fell off and they’re just resting him now until the glue dries.

    That’s as good a response as anything I’ve heard from the Oilers so far, so I’m going with it.

  17. Caramel Batman says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I agree with this assessment. That was the best game I’ve seen Reinhart play. He’s still slow but he was involved on both offense and defense.

    I also agree regarding Nurse’s athleticism. It’s incredible. However, there are no results to show from it at all. The annals of history are filled with guys whose results on the ice do not correspond to their athleticism.

    Jack Johnson springs to mind.

  18. jake70 says:

    Offside:
    What sucks the most about having to trade one of the wunderkids, is that it didn’t need to happen if the team was managed even semi-competently. Unfortunately, at least one will need to be sacrificed to make up for organizational mistakes

    Point taken but if the team managed “competently”, then you likely have less “wunderkids” than you have now (worse draft position). I think of that movie Sliding Doors with Gwyneth Paltrow in late 90s….from Wiki….The film alternates between two parallel universes, based on the two paths the central character’s life could take depending on whether or not she catches a train and causing different outcomes in her life.

    The counter-arguement is if team managed competently, then they have a better D corps, they may make the playoffs and everyone’s happy (happier). The joys of being a fan.

  19. Ribs says:

    Korpikoski—Nuge—Yakupov were in my dog house for most of the night. Silly to waste a fantastic center like this, and McLellan correctly changed things up later in the game. Nuge had a goal, four shots on goal, three takeaways and a blocked shot. Nail had some looks but did not look dangerous, I saw the Finn bad again—it has been a running theme all year.

    Long Live the…ummm.. Korpse? This looks about right. Yak effectively killed two of the Oilers power plays with errant passes and nothing clicked at all with that line from what I saw. I admit that I turned the game off after the Av’s went up 2-0, though. (Good call on my part, I figure. I got caught up on an episode of Sherlock instead.)

    Connor McDavid, over 82 games, would be on pace for 86 points—as a rookie. The voters have not been kind to the Oilers in the last 25 years, but I would submit to you today that if McDavid was a Toronto Maple Leafs player this vote will be far closer than it is going to be in fact.

    It’s kinda neat that I predicted McDavid to score at 1.05pts per game before the season started and that’s exactly where he sits right now. That was John Tavares rate last season. It’s pretty damned good for a rookie, I’d say.

  20. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Caramel Batman: You don’t break the cycle by compounding your mistakes. You break the cycle by making good decisions.
    RNH for Hamonic doesn’t make the team better. RNH is too good and Hamonic not good enough.
    Nurse for Hamonic, on the other hand, does make the team better.
    You break the cycle by identifying those players whose perceived value is greater than their actual value.
    That’s Nurse. That isn’t Hall or RNH. It might be Eberle, I’m not sure.

    Not once did I propose trading one of those players for Hamonic. In fact, if you check back over previous threads, I’ve backed you on the Nurse for Hamonic most vehemently.

    What I’m saying, at least trying to, is that if the opportunity is there to make your team better than it was before the trade, then you do it and don’t get squeamish about it.

    You break the cycle by making good decisions? Well, no sh1t, Sherlock. However, if you were to poll every GM ever they’d tell you they thought they were making the right decisions at the time. Only the results proved them wrong. I bet not a single one would say “aw, sh1t, yeah we knew he was a bad one, but what the hell, eh!”

  21. Магия 10 says:

    LT: “Is there a new normal?”

    Sure. Abby someone.
    Abby who?
    Abby… Normal.

  22. Norman Greenbaum says:

    dadoug12: There’s only 1 player on the team that is 100 percent untouchable,, No 97,everyone else if the right deal is there, to make changes and improvements , the trade can and should be made. When you have a record like the last 5 years, thats the way it should be. Dont fall in love with your players, they are just commodities, the team is the most important.b

    Yep. I’m not suggesting a blow out sale of biblical proportions, but right player, right deal.

  23. HugThePost says:

    I grew up in the ’80s so was very lucky to see the BOTB.

    Now, I have been witness to the BOTB, Boardroom Style.

    My new Oilers normal is plain despair. There is always something with this team that is just outright sad and pathetic and it’s gone on so long that to think they will emerge from it and be a winner again is almost ludicrous to even consider.

  24. GCW_69 says:

    From the other thread:

    Norman Greenbaum: No?Seen the GA?That’s a good start, getting it down a by a significant margin. With two rooky Dmen and not much experience between the rest, Sekera excepted.I’m going to break this down a little.

    So, you expected that TMac, who looked good with a good team, would come in and post similar numbers with the Oilers, who are a bad team?

    Wouldn’t the Oilers have to be the same quality as SJ for TMac to create a significant improvement?

    Or perhaps both Todds got the most out of their current rosters?It was the beginning of the season that killed us.Our record since the draft deadline would suggest we’re trending upwards.

    Maybe Nelson could have stayed and given us similar results this year as HC. He was offered an assistant coach position.But to suggest he’s miles ahead of TMac is a disservice.

    I didn’t suggest he was miles ahead of TMac. Just said TMac hasn’t moved the needle much despite adds in two important areas and less meddling from the GM.

    Nelson was running at a -55 pace for goal differential at even strength, whereas TMac is on pace for -35, so that’s improvement. But, I think about ten of the goals are on goaltending alone since TMac has had 0.007 better goaltending overall. I can’t find the difference in even strength goaltending for Nelson only, so I can’t say that for sure, but I would guess the save percentage gap widens, not shrinks, if anything.

    Nelson also had an even strength shot differential of -3.2 per game. TMac has -2.2 per game. That’s worth about 7.6 goals over a season at .907 goaltending. 6.5 goals at 0.920 goaltending.

    Nelson seems to have had better special teams.

    And, can’t lose sight of the fact Nelson was still learning the NHL game, taking over a squad that was completely demoralized and trending to 50 points or less when he took over.

    So, I don’t see a lot to get excited about. Looking into the numbers, I won’t blame Chiarelli if he decides to blow it up. I think four smart moves turns this team into a playoff team, but I could see why he might think otherwise.

    * stats from puck on net

  25. GCW_69 says:

    letmycamerongo:
    Blue sky scenario is trading Ebs for Haminic, signing Demers, drafting Laine.

    This leaves us really only having to protect Hall, Draisatl, Nuge of the forwards, letting us protect 5 dmen: Sekera, Hamonic, Klefbom,Demers and Davidson.

    I think that sets us up well for the future, and I think could be a playoff caliber team. But hell we’ve been saying that for years.

    What about Lucic? Lol

  26. Factotum says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks for the report, Bruce.

    What did you think of LB in general, and the size of his equipment in particular? I’m concerned that he’s a guy who might be hurt more than average by the looming equipment changes.

  27. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    letmycamerongo:
    Blue sky scenario is trading Ebs for Haminic, signing Demers, drafting Laine.

    This leaves us really only having to protect Hall, Draisatl, Nuge of the forwards, letting us protect 5 dmen: Sekera, Hamonic, Klefbom,Demers and Davidson.

    I think that sets us up well for the future, and I think could be a playoff caliber team. But hell we’ve been saying that for years.

    We probably lose Talbot in that scenario. Or we don’t lose Talbot because he has a bad year next year, which is also unfortunate.

  28. Магия 10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: We probably lose Talbot in that scenario.Or we don’t lose Talbot because he has a bad year next year, which is also unfortunate.

    He’s referring to the 8 skater and 1 goaler scenario. At this point the goalie would be Talbot.

  29. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Norman Greenbaum,

    You don’t break the cycle by compounding your mistakes.You break the cycle by making good decisions.

    RNH for Hamonic doesn’t make the team better.RNH is too good and Hamonic not good enough.

    Nurse for Hamonic, on the other hand, does make the team better.

    You break the cycle by identifying those players whose perceived value is greater than their actual value.

    That’s Nurse.That isn’t Hall or RNH.It might be Eberle, I’m not sure.

    Giving up on young players before they have a chance to develop is about as big a mistake as you can make. There are very few 6’4″ defensemen who can skate and have a mean streak like Nurse.

    He needs to learn the game. He has to get stronger.

    But he just turned 21. He is in his first year of professional hockey and is playing a position noted for the requirement of development time. Hamonic himself required that time.

    In 3 years Nurse for Hamonic likely will look like epic shortsighted stupidity done solely in an attempt just to make the playoffs. That’s the kind of trade you make to win a Cup, not to sneak into 7th or 8th in the west and get killed.

    I am not a big fan of trading Eberle but you can replace wingers easier than any position. The Oilers may be able to replace him with one of the top 3 picks this year. If so, they may not lose much while reducing their cap.

    If they can add Hamonic and Demers, and keep Nurse, defense starts to look like a position of depth:

    Sekera – Hamonic
    Klefbom – Demers
    Davidson – Fayne
    Gryba/ Pardy

    AHL – Oesterle, Nurse, Reinhart, Legs, Musil if he clears waivers, Simpson

  30. Primetime says:

    “Nail received a pass from 14 last night just as he left the photo, incredibly bad timing some are placing on Eberle but I have to say 10 has to stand in there—where the hell was he going?”

    Nuge scored on a very similar play…difference was he settled into the spot, took the McDavid feed and hammered it home. Yak in the same spot floats away from the puck with his back turned into never, never land.

    It is both a good and bad thing that Nail’s heart is the biggest organ in his body…the hockey brain running a distant second….

  31. Магия 10 says:

    GCW_69: What about Lucic?Lol

    One year contract. Don’t protect him. Sign a previously worked out agreement the day after the expansion draft. Some UFAs wil cash in with big 1 year overpays this summer

  32. russ99 says:

    I’d hate to see him go when Eberle and Yak are better trade candidates, but moving Nuge for need and bringing in a slightly older (than Nuge) Jared Stoll type for the third line to win faceoffs and play tough in the D-zone would’t be the end of the world.

    McLellan cracks me up with his powerplay comments. Not that he’s wrong, but rather why is he gimping the power play with an extra forward who’s not high-skill and is just there to keep the cycle going?

  33. hankbuster says:

    https://www.nhl.com/video/schultzs-blistering-ppg/t-277350912/c-42749003

    “Serious Blistering Heat” as per Pierre McGuire”

  34. Centre of attention says:

    Cracknell-McDavid-Eberle
    Hall-Draisaitl-Pakarinen
    Korpikoski-RNH-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    Reinhart-Oesterle
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse-Clendening

    Maroon not practicing, lines according to oilers webside. Cracknell in the top 6? Lordy.

  35. letmycamerongo says:

    Магия 10: One year contract. Don’t protect him. Sign a previously worked out agreement the day after the expansion draft. Some UFAs wil cash in with big 1 year overpays this summer

    I never considered the 1 year UFA option. Might be an attractive option for not having to protect players while trying to turn North next season.

  36. knighttown says:

    On Nurse, here was my quote from over a year ago before he had ever played a professional game…

    I think that if something holds him back it will be offense. I’ve not yet seen (there’s that word again) high level vision or passing and that’s where defensemen score their points.
    Saying that, he’s probably the safest Oiler pick in a decade. With that skill set and size a full-out bust is a near impossibility.
    He’s on that Eric Johnson/Joni Pitkanen spectrum of defenders who will play a tonne and contribute at the VERY LEAST. And Christ, if that hockey aptitude develops (and by all accounts he’s bright) Larry Robinson is one nice potential stretch target

    I don’t think I’d change a word of this other than to say, it appears, we are a bit closer to surrounding this player and I think the new “best case” becomes Erik Johnson. A massive man which sublime skating and good toughness but not quite the world class offensive IQ required to post 40+. Erik has had two 39 point seasons from playing huge TOI and 80+ games but for the most part, he’s been that solid #2-#3 who puts up 25 points per year.

  37. knighttown says:

    We’re all allowed our man-crushes (or for our one female reader, just crushes) but mine remains Tyson Barrie. I can’t imagine there’s an “available” player that better fits this teams needs.

  38. Ducey says:

    Centre of attention:

    Maroon not practicing, lines according to oilers webside. Cracknell in the top 6? Lordy.

    Keeps everyone else in their place.

  39. Snowman says:

    Centre of attention:
    Cracknell-McDavid-EberleHall-Draisaitl-PakarinenKorpikoski-RNH-YakupovHendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    Reinhart-OesterleSekera-FayneNurse-Clendening

    Maroon not practicing, lines according to oilers webside. Cracknell in the top 6? Lordy.

    Woud like to see Nuge draw in with Mcdavid and Lander between Korp and Yak.

    No clue how Cracknell gets that spot unless Maroon is likely to be back for the next game.

  40. Skeeziks says:

    All of the projections being made are largely forgetting about a very significant event … the 2016 Draft Lottery.

    Until management knows exactly where they will be drafting it is premature to make assumptions about who we need to trade or acquire. Once we know the order of the draft, PC will then know the value of the pick, who might be available to draft, who he can trade and for what or whom.

    April 30, 2016 will be an important day for the Oilers. Probably not as important as last year but important nonetheless. Will undoubtedly be an interesting off season.

  41. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Ducey: Keeps everyone else in their place.

    Could be maintenance day for Maroon?

  42. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Official Oilers 2016 “It’s Spring” Death March Update for 21.3.16

    Oilers on pace for a 71 point finish.

    The following contestants have predicted 71 points:

    TOML
    HeatTreaterJoe
    Jake70

  43. speeds says:

    Ducey: Giving up on young players before they have a chance to develop is about as big a mistake as you can make. There are very few 6’4″ defensemen who can skate and have a mean streak like Nurse.

    He needs to learn the game.He has to get stronger.

    But he just turned 21. He is in his first year of professional hockey and is playing a position noted for the requirement of development time.Hamonic himself required that time.

    In 3 years Nurse for Hamonic likely will look like epic shortsighted stupidity done solely in an attempt just to make the playoffs.That’s the kind of trade you make to win a Cup, not to sneak into 7th or 8th in the west and get killed.

    I am not a big fan of trading Eberle but you can replace wingers easier than any position. The Oilers may be able to replace him with one of the top 3 picks this year.If so, they may not lose much while reducing their cap.

    I get what you’re saying, however the GM’s job is also to know which players aren’t likely to reach their perceived potential and which ones will.

    Had the Oilers moved Schultz 2 years ago, they probably would have got more in return than they did this trade deadline. At the same time, moving Marincin for a 4th seems like it could be on the other side of that spectrum.

  44. Fog of Warts says:

    dadoug12: Don’t fall in love with your players, they are just commodities

    That explains everything Petry.

    MacT was totally dialed into the “just a commodity” mindset as he dialed up his counterparts around the league, and then a call came in from Petry’s agent, and he didn’t take the mandatory ten-second cool down to fully assimilate the bipolar mindset whiplash, and with a single misplaced syllable that his innate glibness was unable to instinctively filter, he somehow gave Petry’s agent the impression that he wasn’t wanted here—”cross my heart and hope to die” was too little, too late.

    One wrong syllable or hairy eyebrow or a couple of servings of popcorn is all it takes to nudge these fragile players onto a “wave goodbye” filigree of the interfranchise transport network.

    This also clears up the whole “cold” war. It was “just” a big pissing competition that ended in a regulation tie, and the “resolution” was to leave their dicks hanging out to see who caught frostbite first—like a sauna competition in reverse slomo.

    Kubrick got all his best ideas from the cold war, some disguised better than others.

    The idea for precisely how to handle the negative conditioning sequence in A Clockwork Orange came to him when he heard the story about how Brezhnev piped up at the end of the first cold month “bet you’re thinking of Natalie Zakharenko”, causing Lyndon Johnson to blanch and quail, before shrieking back “Hey you pudgy bastard, don’t ruin a good thing!”

    Right at that moment Johnson was probably suffering from warm, pudgy Johnson envy.

  45. frjohnk says:

    knighttown:
    On Nurse, here was my quote from over a year ago before he had ever played a professional game…

    I think that if something holds him back it will be offense. I’ve not yet seen (there’s that word again) high level vision or passing and that’s where defensemen score their points.
    Saying that, he’s probably the safest Oiler pick in a decade. With that skill set and size a full-out bust is a near impossibility.
    He’s on that Eric Johnson/Joni Pitkanen spectrum of defenders who will play a tonne and contribute at the VERY LEAST. And Christ, if that hockey aptitude develops (and by all accounts he’s bright) Larry Robinson is one nice potential stretch target

    I don’t think I’d change a word of this other than to say, it appears, we are a bit closer to surrounding this player and I think the new “best case” becomes Erik Johnson.A massive man which sublime skating and good toughness but not quite the world class offensive IQ required to post 40+.Erik has had two 39 point seasons from playing huge TOI and 80+ games but for the most part, he’s been that solid #2-#3 who puts up 25 points per year.

    Yup totally agree.

    I went over his games and a big part of him basically drowning numbers wise was when he was playing mostly 1st pairing minutes and some of it 2nd pairing minutes.

    The first game he was paired with Sekera was the game against Washington on Nov 23rd.

    From Nov 23rd to the game against Dallas in Jan, ( 29 games) Nurse played top 4 minutes and mostly against top competition and had these on ice differentials

    HDSC+- = -48
    SC+- = -70
    CF+-= -133

    I doubt there are many 20 year olds who have played on a bad team and been force fed tough minutes 1 month into their apprenticeship. His main preceptors during this apprenticeship were Sekera and Schultz. We shouldnt be surprised Nurses on ice numbers are showing very poorly when he ( a rookie with milk still on his lips)was placed with either a good 2nd pairing Dman ( Sekera) or a chaos 3rd pairing Dman (Schultz) to play top 4 minutes and competition.

    Since that Dallas game, ( 22 games, this is around the time the team, scaled back Nurse’s duties) his on ice differentials are
    HDSC+- = -12
    SC+- = +5
    CF+-= -31

    For a rookie on a bad team, that is not too shabby. And it should be noted since Davidson went down, Nurse’s duties have increased again.

    Also in the last 22 games Nurse has created

    -10 of his 15 overall individual high scoring chances
    -39 of his 70 overall individual scoring chances

    Both of these metrics are TOP 10 in the league!!!

    Yeah his points/60 are not great, but his shooting % is 1.9%.

    I have no doubt he will work on his shot and it will get better and the game will slow down for him. When that happens and it will, the offense will come.

  46. G Money says:

    *** IF YOU ARE A FAN OF THE ‘HIGH DANGER CHANCES’ STATISTIC, PLEASE READ CAREFULLY ***

    “Scoring chances” and “High Danger chances” as currently and quite widely used are a proprietary metric from war-on-ice.

    At the end of this month i.e. the end of the season, I believe that war-on-ice will go offline, partly or fully (I think it basically is the case that the server will go unattended at that point, and when it crashes it crashes for good).

    This means those metrics will no longer be available.

    I’ve been intending for some time to provide my own variants of these metrics.

    As you might know, though I find the WOI metrics valuable, I think they are flawed. Essentially, WOI has done the following

    – Broken the ice up into sixteen regions. (Flaw #1: no justification for why this particular geometry was used has been provided. Why 16? Why these specific 16?).

    – Calculated the likelihood of scoring from each of those regions. (Flaw #2: the likelihood is based purely on location, not shot type. Shot type is not predictive, which I believe is why they left it out, but it IS highly descriptive. All else equal, a 20 ft slapshot is almost always inherently MUCH more dangerous than a 20 ft backhand).

    – Assigned a danger score to each region, 1, 2, or 3. High Danger Chances are chances from regions rated #3. Scoring chances are chances from regions rated #2 or #3. (Flaw #3: this is less a flaw and more of a point of note. Both these definitions are subsets of data, so they build sample size validity more slowly than Corsi or Fenwick, in some cases MUCH more slowly).

    – If a chance is off a rebound or a rush, its danger score is increased by one. So a rush shot from a region rated a 1 becomes a scoring chance. A rebound from a region rated 2 becomes a high danger chance.

    All that clear?

    Good. Except that it’s a. highly proprietary, and b. going away soon!

    As you know, my DFF is an alternative to the shot/SC/HDSC approach. I blend all three into one number, weighted. A highly dangerous shot counts for more than a lightweight one. This means the number reflects the relative danger of the shot balance between the two teams, but the rate at which the statistic builds validity is on par with raw Fenwick.

    As a descriptive measure, I believe DFF is superior to raw Fenwick or Corsi, but also superior to WOI SC data.

    The problem is – sometimes you really do want to know who had the really high danger chances, and how many.

    The approach that I’m thinking of taking is this:

    – a ‘scoring chance’ will be any Fenwick event with a danger rating >1.0 and within a shot angle of +-60 degrees.

    (Remember that the danger rating is based purely on distance and shot type – ignoring shot angle is the big flaw with Dangerous Fenwick – though 70% of all shots are within +- 30 degrees)

    – a ‘high danger chance’ will be any Fenwick event with a danger rating >2.0 and within a shot angle of +-45 degrees.

    – I already account for rebound shots by upping the danger by 25%. I do not currently account for rush shots, though I have the code available to do it.

    The big work here is that the NHL does not provide location for missed shots, only distances. I have to parse Sportsnet data to get the additional location data, so that’s where the work in doing this is, and why Dangerous Fenwick only uses distance data.

    Thoughts? Opinions? Have you thought about what will replace HDSC?

    Is this wasted effort on such a shitty team!?

  47. Caramel Batman says:

    knighttown:
    We’re all allowed our man-crushes (or for our one female reader, just crushes) but mine remains Tyson Barrie.I can’t imagine there’s an “available” player that better fits this teams needs.

    Completely agree. Barrie would be great. He’s #1 by a mile for me of the Shattenkirk–Vatanen–Barrie trio.

    He’ll need to be paid though in both money and assets, and the Oilers need two RHD not one. So any way you cut it, I don’t see the Oilers doing what they need to do without trading Nurse.

    An offseason which adds Hamonic, Barrie, and a Stempniak type player, would be very good indeed,

  48. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Fog of Warts: That explains everything Petry.
    MacT was totally dialed into the “just a commodity” mindset as he dialed up his counterparts around the league, and then a call came in from Petry’s agent, and he didn’t take the mandatory ten-second cool down to fully assimilate the bipolar mindset whiplash, and with a single misplaced syllable that his innate glibness was unable to instinctively filter, he somehow gave Petry’s agent the impression that he wasn’t wanted here—”cross my heart and hope to die” was too little, too late.

    Nope. Petry suffered from Notprongeritis.

    Other perfectly serviceable NHL dmen similarly afflicted include Tom Gilbert and Sheldon Souray.

  49. GCW_69 says:

    Snowman: Woud like to see Nuge draw in with Mcdavid and Lander between Korp and Yak.

    No clue how Cracknell gets that spot unless Maroon is likely to be back for the next game.

    I would like to see Lander with McDavid and Eberle. Not a bad thing to have a second centre playing with a rookie centre, even one as good as McDavid. Would show you at start them in the dzone a little more, with Lander taking the draw, hopefully top McDavid to carry the puck out.

  50. Caramel Batman says:

    G Money,

    It’s a good idea, wasted effort or no.

    However, it seems to me that the value of dangerous Fenwick is it makes arbitrary cutoffs unnecessary.

    The value of scoring chances is it translates the numbers into human language. If it were me I’d try and figure out how to translate the numbers (what is a 1.0 dangerous Fenwick anyway? I have no idea) into human language without reintroducing arbitrary cutoffs.

  51. GCW_69 says:

    Caramel Batman: Completely agree.Barrie would be great.He’s #1 by a mile for me of the Shattenkirk–Vatanen–Barrie trio.

    He’ll need to be paid though in both money and assets, and the Oilers need two RHD not one.So any way you cut it, I don’t see the Oilers doing what they need to do without trading Nurse.

    An offseason which adds Hamonic, Barrie, and a Stempniak type player,would be very good indeed,

    Lebrun had said a couple of times that Lindholm could be in play if his contract demands are too high. If Lindholm does end up in play, he should jump to front of the line. The kid is crazy good at 22.

  52. season not played says:

    Anybody care to volunteer an excuse for Taylor Halls pathetic second half?

    Blue line?

    Draisaitl?

    Power play ineptitude?

    Anything other than him being vastly over rated by many on this blog?

  53. vinotintazo says:

    season not played:
    Anybody care to volunteer an excuse for Taylor Halls pathetic second half?

    Blue line?

    Draisaitl?

    Power play ineptitude?

    Anything other than him being vastly over rated by many on this blog?

    5 years of losing.

  54. Norman Greenbaum says:

    season not played:
    Anybody care to volunteer an excuse for Taylor Halls pathetic second half?

    Blue line?

    Draisaitl?

    Power play ineptitude?

    Anything other than him being vastly over rated by many on this blog?

    Oof!

    Stand by……

  55. Caramel Batman says:

    season not played:
    Anybody care to volunteer an excuse for Taylor Halls pathetic second half?

    Blue line?

    Draisaitl?

    Power play ineptitude?

    Anything other than him being vastly over rated by many on this blog?

    You might be in the wrong place.

  56. frjohnk says:

    season not played:
    Anybody care to volunteer an excuse for Taylor Halls pathetic second half?

    Blue line?

    Draisaitl?

    Power play ineptitude?

    Anything other than him being vastly over rated by many on this blog?

    He is rotten.

    Rotten not just to the core, but past the core, all the way to the other side.

    Rotten all the way to China.

    And back.

    Probably could say he is rotten to the moon just for good measure.

  57. Chachi says:

    season not played:
    Anybody care to volunteer an excuse for Taylor Halls pathetic second half?

    Blue line?

    Draisaitl?

    Power play ineptitude?

    Anything other than him being vastly over rated by many on this blog?

    Taylor Hall had a “pathetic second half” because he is overrated by many on this blog?
    So was his great first half of the season a result of him being underrated by people on a blog?
    I think it is probably more of the hockey-related reasons you listed, but this blog and the people who post on it could also have magical abilities so that is another solid explanation.

  58. Ducey says:

    The leader on the Oilers in CF% and CorsiRel in 11 games played, is Nikitin (53.1% and 4.8%).

    Maybe they should re-sign him.

  59. Snowman says:

    season not played:
    Anybody care to volunteer an excuse for Taylor Halls pathetic second half?

    Blue line?

    Draisaitl?

    Power play ineptitude?

    Anything other than him being vastly over rated by many on this blog?

    What is the point of this comment? Seriously?

    You know it’s going to illicit an agitated response from many posters. You named two of the likely reasons in your own question (Drai and Powerplay).

    And you neglected to mention that even though Hall is slumping a bit he’s still on pace to finish in the top 30 in NHL scoring. He sits 4th in 5×5 scoring this season and he’s proven to be an elite producer over his 6 years.

    So I ask again, what is the point of this comment?

  60. Ducey says:

    You know what else is crazy?

    TOI 5×5

    Sekera 1243 min
    Hall 1150
    Nurse 1073
    Leon 942
    Fayne 900
    Eberle 877
    Letestu 811

    2 rookies in the top 4 in icetime 5×5.

    Injuries injure everyone.

  61. Offside says:

    Point taken but if the team managed “competently”, then you likely have less “wunderkids” than you have now (worse draft position). I think of that movie Sliding Doors with Gwyneth Paltrow in late 90s….from Wiki….The film alternates between two parallel universes, based on the two paths the central character’s life could take depending on whether or not she catches a train and causing different outcomes in her life.

    The counter-arguement is if team managed competently, then they have a better D corps,they may make the playoffs and everyone’s happy (happier).The joys of being a fan.

    Good point. My only disclaimer to the counter-argument is perhaps we still finished low enough to draft the wunderkids, but have enough depth in the system that major moves don’t need to be made (especially for D) to become a contender. Lots of $$ could have been saved and alternative trade options might have allowed us to keep both clusters for the time being

  62. Chachi says:

    Ducey:
    The leader on the Oilers in CF% and CorsiRel in 11 games played, is Nikitin (53.1% and 4.8%).

    Maybe they should re-sign him.

    If I understand the way the universe works, since he is underrated by many of the people on this blog his chances of performing well are very good. I say re-up for another 3 years at about 5 million per season?

  63. GCW_69 says:

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=75579. (Not a link to an Eklund post, it’s from Todd Cordell)

    Damon Severson seems to be on the outs with Hynes. Wonder if he could be added to the list of defenders in play?

  64. JDï™ says:

    season not played: volunteer an excuse

    It’s easy to see that you’re on the path to hockey enlightenment, with phrasing like that.

  65. godot10 says:

    GCW_69: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=75579

    Yakupov for Severson would be a good deal for both teams, I think.

  66. Lloyd B. says:

    G Money,

    Not wasted at all G. In fact, I think it will be interesting when the Oilers head North, (I know) what your fancies will show of a good team versus one that is not so good.

    That should be an interesting comparison. The sample size will be huge on the not so good team so it may show up quickly. Not to be confused with outlier.

  67. Caramel Batman says:

    GCW_69:
    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=75579. (Not a link to an Eklund post, it’s from Todd Cordell)

    Damon Severson seems to be on the outs with Hynes.Wonder if he could be added to the list of defenders in play?

    Severson’s shot, scoring chance, and point numbers are middle of the pack, his competition numbers are slightly lower.

    Everyone regularly mentioned here has significantly better numbers.

  68. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    I know we are characterizing RNH as a ‘two-way’ center and it seems to me that it is to soften his offensive capabilities as an offensive weapon in a top six role. But I’m not sure, if the allocation of minutes and line mates was completely even, that RNH produces less offence than Leon – now or in the future. Leon had an early spike this season (so did RNH season one – not so Leon in season one) but the opposition has the tape on him and he will need to find ways to adjust just like RNH has had to. Jury will be out on his ceiling on offensive output as he adjusts. In looking at the totality of their games, it seems to me RNH is so much further ahead than Leon other than Leon is bigger. In the words of Chiarelli, Leon doesn’t play the game as ‘hard’ as RNH.

  69. dadoug12 says:

    russ99:
    I’d hate to see him go when Eberle and Yak are better trade candidates, but moving Nuge for need and bringing in a slightly older (than Nuge) Jared Stoll type for the third line to win faceoffs and play tough in the D-zone would’t be the end of the world.

    McLellan cracks me up with his powerplay comments. Not that he’s wrong, but rather why is he gimping the power play with an extra forward who’s not high-skill and is just there to keep the cycle going?

    Yakupov gets you peanuts right now, his trade value is negative, the only reason you move a nuge or hall, is because they bring back more of what you need.

  70. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: Severson’s shot, scoring chance, and point numbers are middle of the pack, his competition numbers are slightly lower.

    Everyone regularly mentioned here has significantly better numbers.

    He is also 21. And in his 2nd professional season.

    Some young players improve over time. You may want to include that in your number crunching.

    I expect he is getting sheltered by his coach and isn’t available.

    If you could get him for Yak, I would be surprised. But you never know.

  71. Atc-Nate says:

    Anyone seen Schultz’s goal last minute night on the PP for the Penns?

    One timer from the left circle, top left. *smh*

  72. Norman Greenbaum says:

    Ducey: Some young players improve over time

    And some young players don’t. And some young players regress. See Schultz, Justin. It’s hard to factor in any of that in the ‘number crunching’ as the only numbers to crunch are what he’s already accomplished. Sure, there’s the NHLEs, but these are guidelines and must be taken with a big grain of salt.

    That’s why even with the stats, you can only really tell which way the player is trending. Favourable or unfavourable.

  73. highgloveside says:

    I really don’t like Nuge centering the 3rd line. You cannot have a highly skilled passing center play with guys who don’t know how to put in in the net. It is a waste of time and the Oilers won’t be adding more offensive 3rd liners in the off season. Nuge needs to be in the top 6 with Draisaitl moving to the wing (Nuge is not a winger) they need to put him there, playing on the 3rd line is a waste of talent and money

  74. who says:

    Caramel Batman: Completely agree.Barrie would be great.He’s #1 by a mile for me of the Shattenkirk–Vatanen–Barrie trio.

    He’ll need to be paid though in both money and assets, and the Oilers need two RHD not one.So any way you cut it, I don’t see the Oilers doing what they need to do without trading Nurse.

    An offseason which adds Hamonic, Barrie, and a Stempniak type player,would be very good indeed,

    I would love to add Barrie to this group but when picking trading partners you have to factor in the other teams needs. If you were the Colorado GM would you be looking to move Barrie for cap reasons or one of your forwards. Don’t know what’s in their farm system but it seems to me they only have 4 legit nhl dmen right now, don’t think I would trade the best one away. Barrie is a must sign if you are Colorado.

  75. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    The first game he was paired with Sekera was the game against Washington on Nov 23rd.

    From Nov 23rd to the game against Dallas in Jan, ( 29 games) Nurse played top 4 minutes and mostly against top competition and had these on ice differentials

    I’m going to quibble with your date range.

    Sekera’s most common partner 5v5 TOI:

    Nov 12 @ ARI 14:29 Nurse
    Nov 10 @LAK 10:20 Nurse (next most D Reinhart 3:15)
    Nov 18 vs CHI 17:11 Nurse
    Nov 20 vs NJD Sekera did not play
    Nov 23 – The WAS game you mentioned.

    Maybe you missed those other 3 games because you didn’t see them together on Nov 20?

    Its also important to note that until Klefbom went down Sekera/Nurse was more a 2nd pairing than first. (its close “top 4” is correct)

    Then when Fayne got back he and Sekera played 1st starting Dec 26th and have since.

    Nurse played with Schultz for 2nd pair until Jan 16th vs CAL where he played halft the game with Schultz and half the game with Gryba.

    He’d played every game from Dec 26-Jan 16th with Schultz, and then after the CAL game he was with Gryba, ostensibly the 3rd pair.

    Then he started playing with Schultz again in early February, but was getting some of the least minutes a night (like this game in Montreal on Feb 6: http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20152016&game=20777)

    He plays with Schultz the most, but gets the 5th move 5v5 TOI while Schutlz gets 3rd most.

    Its kind of a moving target, but that’s what I saw when I was grinding through the games on Naturalstattrick

  76. highgloveside says:

    “I am prepared to suggest that Maroon behind Hall and Pouliot at LW is a dandy trio—meaning PC doesn’t have to pursue Lucic, although I know he will”

    Lowetide,

    Having Maroon play on the 3rd line defeats the purpose for why they traded for him. He was brought in to bring size in the top 6. If they plan to put him on the 3rd line, then Lucic is more likely to happen. Either way, with PC wanting size, I don’t think he has Pouliot in mind for next years roster, not based on the player, but based on limited spots.

    The only way I think PC won’t go after Lucic is if he trades Eberle and replaces him with Okposo. Even then, I am fairly certain PC will have many conversations with Licics agent as soon as free agency opens.

  77. Ducey says:

    Norman Greenbaum: And some young players don’t.And some young players regress.See Schultz, Justin. It’s hard to factor in any of that in the ‘number crunching’ as the only numbers to crunch are what he’s already accomplished.Sure, there’s the NHLEs, but these are guidelines and must be taken with a big grain of salt.

    That’s why even with the stats, you can only really tell which way the player is trending.Favourable or unfavourable.

    Agreed. Maybe Nurse and Severson will never amount to anything. But to dismiss them at this point based on their current stats is folly. Both of these guys have big upside.

  78. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: Yakupov for Severson would be a good deal for both teams, I think.

    I agree. Worst case he slides into Gryba’s spot. Best case he plays second pairing with first pairing upside.

  79. GCW_69 says:

    Ducey: He is also 21. And in his 2nd professional season.

    Some young players improve over time.You may want to include that in your number crunching.

    I expect he is getting sheltered by his coach and isn’t available.

    If you could get him for Yak, I would be surprised.But you never know.

    Hynes has been scratching Severson lately for clearly inferior players, which implies tanking or a fall out with the coach. Jersey is six points out of a wild card spot so I doubt they are tanking. There was friction between Hynes and Severson going back to training camp. Hynes is a new coach there and isn’t going anywhere. So, that generally does not end well for the player.

    I would be shocked if San Jose isn’t talking to Shero already.

  80. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    frjohnk,

    The first game he was paired with Sekera was the game against Washington on Nov 23rd.


    From Nov 23rd to the game against Dallas in Jan, ( 29 games) Nurse played top 4 minutes and mostly against top competition and had these on ice differentials

    I’m going to quibble with your date range.

    Sekera’s most common partner 5v5 TOI:

    Nov 12 @ ARI14:29 Nurse
    Nov 10 @LAK 10:20 Nurse (next most D Reinhart 3:15)
    Nov 18 vs CHI 17:11 Nurse
    Nov 20 vs NJD Sekera did not play
    Nov 23 – The WAS game you mentioned.

    Maybe you missed those other 3 games because you didn’t see them together on Nov 20?

    Its also important to note that until Klefbom went down Sekera/Nurse was more a 2nd pairing than first. (its close “top 4” is correct)

    Then when Fayne got back he and Sekera played 1st starting Dec 26th and have since.

    Nurse played with Schultz for 2nd pair until Jan 16th vs CAL where he played halft the game with Schultz and half the game with Gryba.

    He’d played every game from Dec 26-Jan 16th with Schultz, and then after the CAL game he was with Gryba, ostensibly the 3rd pair.

    Then he started playing with Schultz again in early February, but was getting some of the least minutes a night (like this game in Montreal on Feb 6: http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20152016&game=20777)

    He plays with Schultz the most, but gets the 5th move 5v5 TOI while Schutlz gets 3rd most.

    Its kind of a moving target, but that’s what I saw when I was grinding through the games on Naturalstattrick

    Thanks, Im gonna have to bookmark that site.

    I tried to remember by date and used Oilers nation starting lineups. That s how I got the Washington start date. I’ll try to adjust the time frame and corresponding data. Just wait for it

  81. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Some young players improve over time. You may want to include that in your number crunching.

    You can’t.

    No one has a crystal ball.

    You can only measure what they have done, find some comparable players and look at their same age season, take into account: team, usage, linemates and make an educated guess.

    I like Severson too, but he’s a “future” and not a now.

    The Oilers need “now” for their blue line adds.

    Sometimes the future never comes.

  82. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Thanks, Im gonna have to bookmark that site.

    I tried to remember by date and used Oilers nation starting lineups.That s how I got the Washington start date.I’ll try to adjust the time frame and corresponding data.Just wait for it

    You’re welcome.

    That’s the site I use for all of this type of stuff.

    Great break down of each game including TOI with team mates and TOI vs each opponent as well as the fancies/scoring with/against each.

    You can see the match ups and how the change road vs home pretty well too.

    Great site.

    Has 2 years of games now.

  83. sliderule says:

    Is Hamonic the right target for oilers

    He doesn’t run the power play .In fact he doesn’t have one pp point.

    The oilers are in desperate need for someone to run the power play and get shots through to the net.

    Hamonic is a less aggressive model of what I think Nurse will be maybe as soon as next year.Trading Nurse for him would only improve the team marginally as they are similar offensively.

    If the oilers are going to improve their backend by trade it will have to include Hall and involve more than a couple of players.

  84. raventalon40 says:

    wunderbar:
    The Edmonton Oilers will not play a playoff game in my 20’s. I was 19 when they played G7 2006 SCF. I will be 30 next April.

    You have 15 year olds who will not remember a playoff game. You will have 20 year olds who were 9 the last time there was a playoff game.

    That is a dangerous reality for the team. An entire generation is growing up without spring hockey in this town.

    Similar situation here. The night of my high school grad, the Oilers beat Anaheim. No playoffs since that sad Spring of 2006.

  85. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    Sometimes the future never comes.

    The future always comes 🙂

  86. Caramel Batman says:

    sliderule:
    Is Hamonic the right target for oilers

    He doesn’t run the power play .In fact he doesn’t have one pp point.

    The oilers are in desperate need for someone to run the powerplay and get shots through to the net.

    Hamonic is a less aggressive model of what I think Nurse will be maybe as soon as next year.Trading Nurse for him would only improve the team marginally as they are similar offensively.

    If the oilers are going to improve their backend by trade it will have to include Hall and involve more than a couple of players.

    This is ludicrous. It is delusional to expect Nurse to be as good as Hamonic next year. He’s currently one of the worst players in the NHL.* Sure, he should improve, but you are expecting a quantum leap improvement. That’s not projection that’s wishcasting.

    *This is the value of the numbers. They don’t tell you the future, but they do tell you where we are starting from.

  87. Norman Greenbaum says:

    sliderule: Trading Nurse for him would only improve the team marginally as they are similar offensively.

    This is at best subjective, at worst untrue. He could be Cam Barker or Jarred Cowen.

    Hamonic would improve this team more than marginally. Believe it or not, Sekera can run a PP, but when he has to do every flipping thing else, he can’t. He basically has to make his own outlet pass to himself.

    Hamonic would relieve the pressure, and I’m pretty sure Hamonic’s poor on the PP is better than some of our other D men’s best.

    He’s a good player, seriously.

  88. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    Some young players improve over time. You may want to include that in your number crunching.

    You can’t.

    No one has a crystal ball.

    You can only measure what they have done, find some comparable players and look at their same age season, take into account: team, usage, linemates and make an educated guess.

    I like Severson too, but he’s a “future” and not a now.

    The Oilers need “now” for their blue line adds.

    Sometimes the future never comes.

    No one is suggesting that obtaining Severson would obviate the need for getting proven right D options also.

    The pursuit of the good should not be abandoned in the pursuit of the perfect.

    Severson might be able to be flipped in a deal for Vatanen or Barrie or Burns or Hamonic or Shattenkirk turning an asset (Yakupov) into a player more desirable to the teams with the better defensemen.

  89. G Money says:

    Caramel Batman:
    G Money,

    It’s a good idea, wasted effort or no.

    However, it seems to me that the value of dangerous Fenwick is it makes arbitrary cutoffs unnecessary.

    The value of scoring chances is it translates the numbers into human language.If it were me I’d try and figure out how to translate the numbers (what is a 1.0 dangerous Fenwick anyway?I have no idea) into human language without reintroducing arbitrary cutoffs.

    Yeah, I’ve struggled about the arbitrary cutoff business, but I think it’s fair to say that it is interesting (how actionable I’m not sure, but interesting) to look at high danger numbers, which inevitably involve some arbitrary cutoff. I’d just like that cutoff to be visible and understood, for which the WOI version is neither.

    The other question is an interesting one, and you’ve asked me that before, so I’ve had the chance to mull on it. Here is my answer:

    Dangerous Fenwick normalizes shot counts for danger. A Dangerous Fenwick of 1.0 means that the shot is exactly average for the NHL (an average shot equates to a 29 ft wrist shot). So in effect, DFF normalizes shot counts as if all shots were 29 ft wrist shots.

    What value does that have? [I suspect you know the answer already, but will explain fully for the benefit of anyone else who is interested]

    Pretty much the same value as normalizing points for time and games played.

    For example, McDavid has 40 points, Eichel has 49 points, Panarin has 63. 63 > 40, therefore Panarin is the better player. And 49 > 40, so Eichel is the better player. Right?

    Well … we know that the number of games is radically different. So we normalize the points based on games played, Connor is 40/38 = 1.05, Eichel = 0.68, Panarin = 0.89. (Connor vs Jack is even more stark on a pts/60 basis, since Eichel gets more ice time than does McDavid).

    DF does the same normalization for shots.

    In yesterday’s game, the Rhinos (ReinOes) pairing gave up 11 CA, while the Clenurse pairing gave up 15 CA. Sounds like they were close, with Rhinos slightly better.

    But wait! The Rhinos actually played more, so normalizing to time played, it turns out that the Rhinos gave up 43.8 CA/60, and Clenurse gave up 77.8 CA/60.

    That’s a much starker difference.

    However, that speaks nothing of the quality of shots given up. How dangerous were those shots? That’s where DF comes in, it normalizes the shot quality.

    Turns out that the Rhinos, in addition to giving up fewer shots, were also keeping the shots farther away.

    The Dangerous Fenwicks Against/60 for the Rhinos was 41.9.

    For Clenurse, it was 78.3.

    You interpret that as:

    Without normalizing for shot quality, Rhinos were giving up 44 shot attempts per hour of ice time.

    Normalized, Rhinos were giving up the equivalent of 42 unblocked average shots (wrist shots from 29 ft) per hour of ice time.

    Without normalizing for shot quality, Clenurse were giving up a little less than 78 shot attempts per hour of ice time.

    Normalized, Clenurse were giving up the equivalent of a little more than 78 unblocked average shots (wrist shots from 29 ft) per hour of ice time.

    Just like comparing McDavid and Eichel on a points per game basis, you can now compare the defensive performance of the two pairs straight across.

    Works the same way when comparing offensive performance for lines or players, as well as looking at the balance of what was done attacking vs defending.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Giving up on young players before they have a chance to develop is about as big a mistake as you can make.

    I agree with that.

    Trading Nurse for an established Dman isn’t giving up on him though, its a hockey trade. Big difference.

    There are very few 6’4″ defensemen who can skate and have a mean streak like Nurse.

    Not really. Every year large Dmen are drafted high can skate because “they’re big and can skate” Here are some recent examples:

    Dylan McIlrath – 6’5″ 220lbs decent skater 10th overall 2010
    Jared Cowen – 6’5: 232lbs good skater 9th overall 2009
    Luke Schenn – 6’2 220lbs good skater 5th overall 2008
    Keaton Ellerby – 6’5″ 230lbs good skater 10th overall 2007
    Ty Wisehart – 6’4″ 222lbs good skater 16th overall 2006
    Jack Johnson – 6’2″ 210lbs good skater 3rd overall 2005


    But he just turned 21. He is in his first year of professional hockey and is playing a position noted for the requirement of development time. Hamonic himself required that time.

    No question that it takes time.

    I’ll quibble about Hamonic though, his results in his first year (20 year old, same as Nurse) are much, much, much superior to Nurse and he played 2nds with Andrew MacDonald of all people.

    I’ve been looking at a lot of 20 year Dmen’s rookie year results so I have a range to project Nurse and he doesn’t stack up well against most, even against players like Schenn.

    Nurse’s year and QC have been a gongshow and you need to account for that, but you can’t remove his results from him and strictly blame everyone and everything else except the player.

    He needs to learn the game. He has to get stronger.

    He does and it would be better if we didn’t see him this year because now the results are in and they’re not good.

    I hope they get better.

  91. Steve4 says:

    Trade proposal: Steen, Berglund & Parayko for Hall, Reinhart, and Osterle.

    St Louis gets some cap space, an elite top-line scorer, a high-value defenseman prospect, and a potential value defenseman prospect.

    Edmonton gets an aging, two-way winger on an expiring contract, an overpaid depth winger, and a potentially elite, right-shot defenseman.

    I’m not sure St Louis would be up for this, but I really f-ing want Parayko in copper & blue! I’d add draft pick(s) to our side if necessary. Osterle could be exchanged for a prospect forward in our system.

  92. Centre of attention says:

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/3/21/mclellan-gets-involved-with-the-community-and-the-oilers

    Great piece by Gregor. Some good tidbits about McDavid and a Gryba/Klefbom update at the end. We might see Gryba do a full practice soon, and he may play before the end of the season.

    Klefbom is continuing to skate away from the team, he wasn’t able to bike for 2 months so he needs to get his cardio up.

  93. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: No one is suggesting that obtaining Severson would obviate the need for getting proven right D options also.

    The pursuit of the good should not be abandoned in the pursuit of the perfect.

    Severson might be able to be flipped in a deal for Vatanen or Barrie or Burns or Hamonic or Shattenkirkturning an asset (Yakupov) into a player more desirable to the teams with the better defensemen.

    I agree. Severson helps provide depth on the right side which is currently devoid of it. If the asset cost isn’t too high, you go after him. If he blossoms and pushes up the right side depth chart, either he or whomever he pushes becomes a tradeable asset. The oilers are going to need guys like that for cap reasons.

  94. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    Bang on.

    The reality is I don’t want to trade Nurse. I believe he’s going to get better, and that he’ll be a really good player and a valuable part of the team for a long time.

    If I’m being honest though, it’s hard to justify. I believe it more because I like the individual, I like the component pieces, I like the stories about him going to the gym after games in junior. I like the pedigree. I find his Dad in the stands to be a bright spot on an otherwise bleak season.

    I have a hard time looking at things analytically and saying, yeah he’s still in good shape. Realistically he isn’t.

    Believing in Nurse is fine. But it’s more an appeal to faith than to reason. It’s disingenuous to suggest otherwise.

  95. sliderule says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I am not delusional.

    I don’t measure most of the enhanced stats for individual players anymore than I did with plus- minus.

    To me they are measurement of five man units and are affected by zone starts and quality of competition.

    What I do measure is mistakes made caused by positioning and lack of skill or strength.

    I see the skating power and edge control.

    I also see the offensive skills in vision ,puck movement and travel and shot.

    I see all these things and that’s what I get my enjoyment from in watching this team.

    It sure as hell isn’t from watching them win or I would have been long gone.

    Oh and I do like Hamonic a lot but not sure how much he improves our team.

  96. Caramel Batman says:

    sliderule:
    Is Hamonic the right target for oilers

    Hamonic is a less aggressive model of what I think Nurse will be maybe as soon as next year.Trading Nurse for him would only improve the team marginally as they are similar offensively.

    I missed this nugget. Let’s evaluate what “similar” means in your universe.

    Last two seasons, pts per 60 minutes played.

    Hamonic: .86
    Nurse: .22

    I’m sorry that the facts are getting in the way of your eyes. Hamonic has a track record of 4x the offense of Nurse.

    For context, over that time span, using 700 minutes as the playing time cutoff, Nurse has scored the fewest points of any defenseman in the NHL.

    You read that right. No one scores less than Nurse. Not a single player.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: The future always comes

    Tomorrow is tomorrow and tomorrow will have a tomorrow.

    So “tomorrow never come”?

    Or

    The futures always comes, but rarely in the shape we were hoping.

    Or

    We hoped for the best, but it turned out like always.

  98. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    Nurse with Sekera 19 games from Nov 12th to Dec 21th

    HDSC+- = -23
    SC+- = -42
    CF+-= -111

    Nurse with Schultz after Sekera 11 games Dec 21th to Jan 16th

    HDSC+- = -17
    SC+- = -6
    CF+-= -6

    Since Jan 18th ( 25 games)

    HDSC+- = -19
    SC+- = -8
    CF+-= -62

    And this is including the ghastly Dallas Stars game where Gryba and Nurse got lit up.

    Nurse on ice differentials that game were
    HDSC+- = -8
    SC+- = -15
    CF+-= -21

    Funny thing about this game was Nurse made a play no other Oiler Dman would have except Klefbom. Seguin got the puck in the neutral zone at full speed with only Nurse separating Seguin from the Oiler goalie. Nurse skated backwards like a madman, and really focused on Seguins chest, Nurse used his skating and wingspan to eventually bat the puck harmlessly in the corner. Any other Oiler Dman and its probably a penalty or a goal against.

    Take out that Dallas game and Nurse’s on ice differentials look like this ( last 24 games)

    HDSC+- = -11
    SC+- = +7
    CF+-= -41

    For a rookie Dman on a not very good team. I can live with that. Throw in the Dallas game data and Im still Ok with it.

    Since the Jan 18th game

    Nurse has created

    11 individual high scoring chances for
    41 individual scoring chances for

    So while his offense has not jumped in points/60, Nurse is definitely creating some type of offense, they are just not cashing.

    I know Nurse did not score well in your metrics but I think the bigger issue is that Nurse was put into a position he was not ready for with Sekera and Schultz to play mostly top 4 minutes and the result was that Nurse drowned.

    On a balanced team, if Nurse plays most of the year in the AHL/3rd pairing, Nurse would have been totally fine for a rookie.

  99. Caramel Batman says:

    Interestingly, right down there at the bottom this year with Nurse is Jonas Brodin.

    A nice reminder that young players don’t always get better. It is foolhardy to price-in improvement htat is hardly guaranteed.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: We hoped for the best, but it turned out like always.

    That’s the last ten years.

  101. hunter1909 says:

    Let’s see…

    Nurse goes, because “He’s no Chris Pronger”…

    Yakupov goes, after getting Stephen Spielberg levels of runaround by management…

    Eberle goes, because “He’s soft and we need the 6 million for other stuff later”…

    Taylor Hall goes, because “We can get a really good defenceman for him”…

    The 1st round pick goes, because “It’s value will never be so high”…

    It’s like dismantling the Dynasty in 1982, for the team they ended up with captained by Shane Corson.

    I understand the angst, really I do. However, these players have the potential to torment the Oilers for a decade to come. They’re not 15 year men running out the string like Lowe was for the NYR in 1994.

    Some of these players have Team Canada potential. Or had Team Canada potential.

    Also, what’s so wonderful about making trades with GM’s who are proven to be smarter than the Oilers collective “braintrust”?

  102. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention,

    Klefbom is continuing to skate away from the team, he wasn’t able to bike for 2 months so he needs to get his cardio up.

    This isn’t adding up.

    He’s been skating without equipment for a while now and should be able to be in equipment and skate with the team if most other injuries are a good barometer.

    Something isn’t adding up.

    I wonder how much muscle they had to take when they cut out the infection?

    This is pretty scary.

  103. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    You’re describing the ongoing difficulty of a dimensional vs categorical model.

    I like the dimensional model of DFF, but I recognize that in communication, sometimes a categorical model is easier.

    I guess my question is: what are you basing these categorical cut-offs on?

    You’ve said an average shot is a 29 foot wrister. My guess is that a 29 foot wrister also has ~league average shooting percentage. Are you suggesting that anything with a greater chance of going in than a 29 foot wrister (and therefore greater than league average expected shooting percentage) is a scoring chance? What does the 2.0 +/- 30 degrees equate to? Is it in the top 20% for expected shooting percentage? Top 15%?

    I think that’s how it would make sense to me. Scoring chances are shots that have a greater chance of going in than the “average” shot (Expected shooting percentage greater than league average). High Danger scoring chances would be a shot based on location and type that is a in the top 20%. Or perhaps using shooting percentage cut-offs. A shot from this location has a >10% of going in. Something like that.

    Does that make sense or am I mis-understanding something?

  104. Bank Shot says:

    In looking at Nurse on Hockey Reference, I used 19-21 rookie seasons for D-men, his points/game is in the ball park with guys like Gudbranson, Smid, Russell, Moore, Cowen, Mike Green, Mark Staal, Jackie Johnson, and Luke Schenn.

    Mike Green is the obvious outlier there. He played 5 less minutes a night though.

    However if you look at shots per game, Darnell Nurse is 11th by that metric out of the 63 rookie defensemen that played 60+ games since the lockout.

    Out of the group he’s paired with, the next best in shots per game was Luke Schenn at 30th. Some of them got comparable time on ice per game but not all.

    Perhaps the kid is having an anti-Cogliano rookie season. With some more luck Nurse might have 15 points and we’d be leaning more towards him as untouchable.

    Hard to say at this point if there is no offence there. The number shots is encouraging compared to PPG.

    Smid for instance had half as many shots, and he was getting regular PP time.

  105. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Klefbom is continuing to skate away from the team, he wasn’t able to bike for 2 months so he needs to get his cardio up.
    This isn’t adding up.
    He’s been skating without equipment for a while now and should be able to be in equipment and skate with the team if most other injuries are a good barometer.
    Something isn’t adding up.

    Klefbom got hurt I believe two years straight after getting drafted in Sweden, and as an NHLer has not yet been able to string enough games consecutively to prove that he’s not injury prone.

    Add Klefbom to that list I started making about Oiler Golden Boy players who fail to develop under the NHL’s version of the Antichrist – Kevin Lowe+MacT.

  106. hunter1909 says:

    “the NHL’s version of the Antichrist – Kevin Lowe+MacT”

    lol

  107. frjohnk says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Interestingly, right down there at the bottom this year with Nurse is Jonas Brodin.

    A nice reminder that young players don’t always get better.It is foolhardy to price-in improvement htat is hardly guaranteed.

    Its also pretty early to write off a Dman such as Nurse

    If we look at points/60 and believe that is the only offense we should look at, then yeah, Nurse does not look very good. But I wouldnt just stop at points/60 to rate offense from a Dman. While all have their own imperfections, I believe there are other advanced metrics we can look at, that can add more paint to the overall portrait. Ive used high danger scoring chances and scoring chances from WOI when looking at offense from Dmen. Heck, Ive used this when I have looked at Hamonic. He shows relatively well over the last few years.

    When looking at these metrics

    In Nurse’s first 37 games * this is all 5 on 5

    He created

    4 HDSC
    29 Scoring Chances

    In the games since ( 25 games)

    he has created

    11 HDSC ( Big Buff leads the league with 29 HDSC in 71 games)
    41 scoring chances ( Burns leads the league with 106 scoring chances in 72 games)

    The surge in these two metrics has put Nurse in the top 20 in the league for Dmen for both metrics

    Ive split these time periods up ( as per my conversation with Woodguy)
    Nurse showed very bad in the first 37 games. From game 8 to game 37, Nurse played with Sekera and Schultz in a mostly top 4 role and drowned. His on ice differentials are ghastly in this time period.

    From game 39 to now he is doing relatively good for a rookie on a bad team. If Nurse would have been a balanced team and only had to play 3rd pairing minutes, his on ice differentials would look a lot better.

    Here are the top 20 Dmen in creating high scoring chances
    Name iHSC

    Dustin.Byfuglien 29
    Erik.Karlsson 22
    Roman.Josi 19
    Jacob.Trouba 19
    John.Klingberg 18
    Torey.Krug 18
    Brent.Burns 17
    Victor.Hedman 17
    Mattias.Ekholm 16
    Trevor.Daley 15
    Erik.Johnson 15
    Tyler.Myers 15
    Darnell.Nurse 15
    Alex.Pietrangelo 15
    Noah.Hanifin 14
    Hampus.Lindholm 14
    Colton.Parayko 14
    Aaron.Ekblad 13
    Dougie.Hamilton 13
    Olli.Maatta 13

    Here are the top 20 Dmen in creating scoring chances ( 5 on 5)
    Name iSC

    Brent.Burns 106
    Torey.Krug 102
    Erik.Karlsson 96
    Morgan.Rielly 90
    Roman.Josi 88
    Victor.Hedman 87
    Mark.Giordano 80
    Alex.Pietrangelo 78
    Dustin.Byfuglien 77
    Jake.Muzzin 76
    Tyler.Myers 73
    Darnell.Nurse 70
    Kevin.Shattenkirk 68
    Jake.Gardiner 65
    Erik.Johnson 65
    Trevor.Daley 64
    John.Klingberg 63
    Rasmus.Ristolainen 63
    Ryan.Suter 63
    Anton.Stralman 62

    Thats some pretty good company for Nurse

    Imagine what happens when Nurse develops a shot ( and he will) and the game slows down for him ( it will)

    I dont believe he will be elite, but I dont believe he will be a bottom feeder D man either.

    He has improved in the last couple of months by eye and by number.

    He will only get better. And while I like Hamonic, I have studied his numbers somewhat and have watched a few Islander games on Gamecenter this year, I wouldnt trade Nurse for him.

  108. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy:
    Centre of attention,

    Klefbom is continuing to skate away from the team, he wasn’t able to bike for 2 months so he needs to get his cardio up.

    This isn’t adding up.

    He’s been skating without equipment for a while now and should be able to be in equipment and skate with the team if most other injuries are a good barometer.

    Something isn’t adding up.

    I wonder how much muscle they had to take when they cut out the infection?

    This is pretty scary.

    I agree.

    There is a non-zero chance that he goes full Ryan Whitney on us here. People forget how good Whitney was for us in his first half season.

    The more I think about it the more I worry about assuming he’ll be back next year, or that we can pencil him in to a top pairing role. We might be forcing Davidson up the lineup earlier than we’d like to next year.

  109. wheatnoil says:

    Bank Shot,

    frjohnk,

    The shots and scoring chances / 60 may have more value than points/60, especially for D-men. We know that the correlation year to year for secondary assists is somewhat low (not quite random, but certainly not as high as primary assists). That’s for forwards, though. For D-men, there’s some evidence than even primary assists have low correlation year to year. There’s a lot more randomness to D-man assists than forward assists (which isn’t to say the stat is meaningless).

    So I’m less concerned about Nurse’s points/60, especially if he’s producing shots and scoring chances.

    I’m more concerned about his possession and other metrics.

    I think it’s safe to say that Nurse was not ready for the NHL this year and he struggled at times. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be a terrible defender. It does mean that most well-run organizations would have put him down in the AHL well before now so he could develop.

    Maybe that’s why there aren’t a lot of comparables for Nurse at the bottom of Woodguy’s list. Most NHL teams would have put those players that needed a bit more development down in the minors so that they could, you know, develop.

    The Oilers have done this again and again and again. The problem isn’t with Nurse but it affects Nurse.

    Next year at this time, will Nurse be better for having two years NHL experience? Or, as LT has put it with Gagner and Schultz, will he have had one year of experience twice?

    We’ve seen this show before.

    I like Nurse… but I worry.

  110. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    Thanks Padre, great stuff as usual.

    I know Nurse did not score well in your metrics but I think the bigger issue is that Nurse was put into a position he was not ready for with Sekera and Schultz to play mostly top 4 minutes and the result was that Nurse drowned.

    I can run some of his metrics again taking out the Sekera games if you can get me these numbers for both Nurse and the team:

    CA/60
    CF/60
    HDSCA/60
    SCF/60
    SCA/60
    GF/60
    GA/60

    If its a ton work don’t worry about.

  111. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil,

    Maybe that’s why there aren’t a lot of comparables for Nurse at the bottom of Woodguy’s list. Most NHL teams would have put those players that needed a bit more development down in the minors so they could, you know, develop.

    Truth.

  112. fifthcartel says:

    One thing I’m curious about finding out in regards to Nurse is how many defensemen put up poor numbers around his age, but then turned it around and were positive possession players later on?

    Does it happen often and is it something we can reasonably expect for Nurse?

  113. Caramel Batman says:

    Woodguy:
    Centre of attention,

    Klefbom is continuing to skate away from the team, he wasn’t able to bike for 2 months so he needs to get his cardio up.

    This isn’t adding up.

    He’s been skating without equipment for a while now and should be able to be in equipment and skate with the team if most other injuries are a good barometer.

    Something isn’t adding up.

    I wonder how much muscle they had to take when they cut out the infection?

    This is pretty scary.

    It’s strange, I agree. No news is bad news here. I’m worried.

  114. Caramel Batman says:

    frjohnk,

    Based on my last data pull Nurse’s IHDSC/60 is 19th best over the past two years. You are right, that is really excellent.

    His HDSCF/60 is 132nd, which is well below average.

    The discrepancy here is strange. I’d have to know more about how individual scoring chances are scored.

  115. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    Centre of attention,

    Klefbom is continuing to skate away from the team, he wasn’t able to bike for 2 months so he needs to get his cardio up.

    This isn’t adding up.

    He’s been skating without equipment for a while now and should be able to be in equipment and skate with the team if most other injuries are a good barometer.

    Something isn’t adding up.

    I wonder how much muscle they had to take when they cut out the infection?

    This is pretty scary.

    I agree it’s concerning. Lack of news leads to significant speculation. It’s a weird injury and complication, given what little information we have.

    Another possibility: He would have been ready to come back sometime around now for the last few games, but they have quietly shut him down for the season, maximizing LTIR relief for bonus money to McDavid and Draisaitl, while also giving them more time to see Reinhart & Oesterle at the NHL level.

    Remember, we hear nothing about Klefbom forever. Then, the news that Klefbom is skating is leaked almost immediately after Davidson gets injured. One thinks he’ll be back soon, but Oesterle gets called up, the team starts winning a few games post deadline, and Oesterle / Reinhart are doing not bad as a pair… and we’re back to radio-silence again.

  116. wheatnoil says:

    Caramel Batman:
    frjohnk,

    Based on my last data pull Nurse’s IHDSC/60 is 19th best over the past two years.You are right, that is really excellent.

    His HDSCF/60 is 132nd, which is well below average.

    The discrepancy here is strange.I’d have to know more about how individual scoring chances are scored.

    How often is Nurse playing with Hall compared to not Hall? With McDavid injured most of the year, the Oilers HDSC are largely Hall-driven. Nurse may produce his own individual HDSC, but he’s not getting cherry Hall minutes, then the HDSC for the whole team while he’s on the ice will likely be low.

  117. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: How often is Nurse playing with Hall compared to not Hall? With McDavid injured most of the year, the Oilers HDSC are largely Hall-driven. Nurse may produce his own individual HDSC, but he’s not getting cherry Hall minutes, then the HDSC for the whole team while he’s on the ice will likely be low.

    Hall is Nurse’s most common F-mate.

    342 minutes out of 1073

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=2003&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

  118. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: How often is Nurse playing with Hall compared to not Hall? With McDavid injured most of the year, the Oilers HDSC are largely Hall-driven. Nurse may produce his own individual HDSC, but he’s not getting cherry Hall minutes, then the HDSC for the whole team while he’s on the ice will likely be low.

    Nurse’s CF/60 with Hall 61.70
    Nurse’s CF/60 without Hall 46.72

    Nurse’s CA/60 with Hall 58.54
    Nurse’ CA/60 without Hall 62.15

    Put it together:

    Nurse’s CF% with Hall 51.3%
    Nurse’s CF% without Hall 42.9%

    There goes that fucking Hall not making his team mates better again.

    Asshole.

  119. Chachi says:

    Woodguy,

    Imagine how good Nurse’s numbers with Hall would be if people around here stopped overrating him!

  120. Woodguy says:

    Nurse’s CF% WOWY for the year.

    I left the goalies in (usually take them out) because the goalies are usually “about the same” , but here NIlsson is significantly worse with Nurse.

    That’s probably because Nilsson played most his games in November and that’s when Nurse was 1st pair.

    Why the hell did it take McLellan so long to take him off of 1st pair?

    TALBOT, CAM -3.4
    NILSSON, ANDERS -6.2
    SEKERA, ANDREJ -6.5
    HALL, TAYLOR -1.3
    DRAISAITL, LEON -1.2
    EBERLE, JORDAN -5.7
    PURCELL, TEDDY -1.8
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN -2.3
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN -6.2
    LETESTU, MARK -5.9
    POULIOT, BENOIT -1.1
    HENDRICKS, MATT -6.1
    PAKARINEN, IIRO -11.9
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI -2.9
    YAKUPOV, NAIL -3.7
    LANDER, ANTON -14.1
    CLENDENING, ADAM -7
    MCDAVID, CONNOR -0.8
    KASSIAN, ZACK -2.5
    GRYBA, ERIC -1.2
    FAYNE, MARK -4.2
    KHAIRA, JUJHAR -15.6
    GAZDIC, LUKE -13.7
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON -2.2

  121. Steve4 says:

    fifthcartel:
    One thing I’m curious about finding out in regards to Nurse is how many defensemen put up poor numbers around his age, but then turned it around and were positive possession players later on?

    Does it happen often and is it something we can reasonably expect for Nurse?

    Other things to consider for those comparisons is the calibre of competition, minutes played, and the defensive partners. Nurse is playing above his head. The hope is that he either develops enough to catch up to his minutes, or he is pushed down the depth chart and can develop against appropriate opponents.

  122. Woodguy says:

    Here something interesting.

    I did CF and CA WOWY separately for Nurse and it turns out he helps shot attempts for (CF/60) for some players (notably Hall and McDavid), but hurts everyone on CA/60.

    It seems Nurse needs to work on defense more than offense.

    CF/60 WOWY

    TALBOT, CAM -1.82
    NILSSON, ANDERS -8.25
    SEKERA, ANDREJ -10.73
    HALL, TAYLOR 3.84
    DRAISAITL, LEON 2.1
    EBERLE, JORDAN -6.62
    PURCELL, TEDDY 0.67
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 1.83
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN -8.47
    LETESTU, MARK -8.59
    POULIOT, BENOIT -1.1
    HENDRICKS, MATT -7.73
    PAKARINEN, IIRO -14.16
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI -4.78
    YAKUPOV, NAIL -3.75
    LANDER, ANTON -16.25
    CLENDENING, ADAM -3.49
    MCDAVID, CONNOR 7.09
    KASSIAN, ZACK -5.56
    GRYBA, ERIC -5.67
    FAYNE, MARK 0.9
    KHAIRA, JUJHAR -12.69
    GAZDIC, LUKE -23.12
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 5.28

    CA/60 WOWY

    TALBOT, CAM -5.79
    NILSSON, ANDERS -5.43
    SEKERA, ANDREJ -3.24
    HALL, TAYLOR -6.33
    DRAISAITL, LEON -4.56
    EBERLE, JORDAN -6.75
    PURCELL, TEDDY -4.64
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN -7.22
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN -5.3
    LETESTU, MARK -3.05
    POULIOT, BENOIT -1.23
    HENDRICKS, MATT -5.34
    PAKARINEN, IIRO -9.42
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI -0.86
    YAKUPOV, NAIL -4.58
    LANDER, ANTON -15.15
    CLENDENING, ADAM -12.92
    MCDAVID, CONNOR -8.85
    KASSIAN, ZACK 0.72
    GRYBA, ERIC 3.29
    FAYNE, MARK -11.36
    KHAIRA, JUJHAR -24.56
    GAZDIC, LUKE -5.19
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON -9.86

    NOTE: I express this as a negative as people are more comfortable seeing a negative as a bad thing.

    Sekera is -3.24 so when with Nurse Sekera has 3.24 more shot attempts against/60.

    Interesting that the goalies are so disparate on CF but almost the same on CA

  123. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    I will try and get those numbers tomorrow. I have some of them, but Im doing taxes right now and I have a night shift tonight

    Caramel Batman:
    frjohnk,

    Based on my last data pull Nurse’s IHDSC/60 is 19th best over the past two years.You are right, that is really excellent.

    His HDSCF/60 is 132nd, which is well below average.

    The discrepancy here is strange.I’d have to know more about how individual scoring chances are scored.

    Overall Nurse has an ice differential of
    HDSC+- = -63
    SC+- = -52
    Corsi+- = -166

    But separating the games away from Sekera and Schutlz ( from game 1 to 8, game 38 to last nights)
    HDSC+- = -21
    SC+- = +1
    Corsi+- = -55

    Playing with Sekera in a top 4 role was not a good idea. Playing with Schultz so there were 2 chaos Dmen on the ice at the same time was not a good idea either.

    It seems like he has done relatively well in a 3rd pairing role as a rookie, except for that Dallas game

    He and Gryba got crushed in that Dallas game

    Nurse on ice differentials that game were
    HDSC+- = -8
    SC+- = -15
    CF+-= -21

    YIKES!!!!!

    Like I said before, his numbers wouldn’t look so bad on a balanced team in where he played the majority of his time on the 3rd pairing.

  124. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    One thing I’m curious about finding out in regards to Nurse is how many defensemen put up poor numbers around his age, but then turned it around and were positive possession players later on?

    Does it happen often and is it something we can reasonably expect for Nurse?

    That’s why I’m running the last 38 Dmen who were rookies in their 19-21 year old year and played at least 65 games through my metric table.

    So far Larsson comes from meh to be a decent 1st pairing Dman and is still growing.

    Most others are what they are in the first year.

    If anything their scores decrease over time as their comp gets tougher (PIetrangelo and Hamonic come to mind. Great rookie scores, not nearly as good of scores when playing against the best, natch)

    I’m hoping to find more who move up substantially.

    The thing is that Dmen who appear in the NHL at that age are usually the better ones, with a few notable exceptions who were “rushed” (like Luke Schenn playing in the NHL at 18. Terrible decision)

    I really want to get Padre’s numbers away from Sekera as that might give us a better picture.

    Some Dmen played toughs their first year an did ok. Pietrangelo is a good example. Started at 3rds, ended up playing first.

    McLellan started Nurse at firsts and moved him back.

    Terrible.

  125. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: I guess my question is: what are you basing these categorical cut-offs on?
    You’ve said an average shot is a 29 foot wrister. My guess is that a 29 foot wrister also has ~league average shooting percentage. Are you suggesting that anything with a greater chance of going in than a 29 foot wrister (and therefore greater than league average expected shooting percentage) is a scoring chance? What does the 2.0 +/- 30 degrees equate to? Is it in the top 20% for expected shooting percentage? Top 15%?
    I think that’s how it would make sense to me. Scoring chances are shots that have a greater chance of going in than the “average” shot (Expected shooting percentage greater than league average). High Danger scoring chances would be a shot based on location and type that is a in the top 20%. Or perhaps using shooting percentage cut-offs. A shot from this location has a >10% of going in. Something like that.
    Does that make sense or am I mis-understanding something?

    To recap a few things, here is how DFF is derived:

    1 – I looked at all unblocked shots over a 5 year period. The sh% for that group is what I define to be the ‘average’ shot – it is something in the order of ~5%.

    2 – I then looked at all shots by distance and type, and modeled that (extremely noisy) data produce a sh% vs distance curve for every shot type.

    3 – I can then assign danger in this very simple and intuitive way: the danger of any given shot type at any given distance is simply the modeled sh% divided by the overall sh%. So when I declare that a 16 ft slap shot has a Danger of 1.988, it means that the sh% of that shot from that distance is 1.988 x ~5%. In that sense, the Danger rating has a very direct meaning.

    4 – So when I declare the average shot to be a 28 ft (it’s 28 not 29, oops) wrist shot, all it means is that the Danger rating for that shot is the closest thing to 1.0 that I have (it’s actually 0.993).

    5 – So you could set a measure that a scoring chance is anything with a Danger > 1.0; that’s a reasonably meaningful cutoff.

    6 – Similarly, you could declare a ‘high’ danger chance to be anything with Danger > 2.0; that literally means it is more than twice as dangerous as an ‘average’ Fenwick.

    7 – The angle restriction is to address the flaw in the ointment (heh heh), which is that my danger ratings are purely distance based. There is obviously a reduction in danger at extreme angles that a distance based method doesn’t account for (which is why you can argue that location based methods are superior).

    8 – However, in practice, the vast majority of shots are at relatively mild angles. Also, the precision advantage that is gained by using location is weakened by the fact that distributing the data over a full 2D space reduces the data volumes to very thin levels in places, which makes the modeling difficult and more error prone. I believe this is why distance and location based methods produce surprisingly similar results at the game level.

    9 – That said, when isolating on categoricals like SC/HDSC, you would want to apply an angle filter to remove the candidates that are obvious exceptions to the distance rule. That’s why something like 30/60 degrees for SC/HDSC makes sense to me, just because they are reasonable and, if observed on a screen, relatively intuitive.

  126. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I really want to get Padre’s numbers away from Sekera as that might give us a better picture.

    Here is a start
    This is game 1 to 8 and game 38 to last nights ( not having Sekera and Schutlz as a partner)

    TOI
    506

    HDSCF= 95
    HDSCA= 116

    SCF=242
    SCA=241

    CF=454
    CA=509

    GF=16
    GA=29

    At a first rough look, every metric improves away from Sekera and Schultz except GF and GA.

    Dont know if I have the time to get the rest today.

  127. spoiler says:

    G Money: To recap a few things, here is how DFF is derived:

    1 – I looked at all unblocked shots over a 5 year period.The sh% for that group is what I define to be the ‘average’ shot – it is something in the order of ~5%.

    2 – I then looked at all shots by distance and type, and modeled that (extremely noisy) data produce a sh% vs distance curve for every shot type.

    3 – I can then assign danger in this very simple and intuitive way: the danger of any given shot type at any given distance is simply the modeled sh% divided by the overall sh%.So when I declare that a 16 ft slap shot has a Danger of 1.988, it means that the sh% of that shot from that distance is 1.988 x ~5%.In that sense, the Danger rating has a very direct meaning.

    4 – So when I declare the average shot to be a 28 ft (it’s 28 not 29, oops) wrist shot, all it means is that the Danger rating for that shot is the closest thing to 1.0 that I have (it’s actually 0.993).

    5 – So you could set a measure that a scoring chance is anything with a Danger > 1.0; that’s a reasonably meaningful cutoff.

    6 – Similarly, you could declare a ‘high’ danger chance to be anything with Danger > 2.0; that literally means it is more than twice as dangerous as an ‘average’ Fenwick.

    7 – The angle restriction is to address the flaw in the ointment (heh heh), which is that my danger ratings are purely distance based.There is obviously a reduction in danger at extreme angles that a distance based method doesn’t account for (which is why you can argue that location based methods are superior).

    8 – However, in practice, the vast majority of shots are at relatively mild angles.Also, the precision advantage that is gained by using location is weakened by the fact that distributing the data over a full 2D space reduces the data volumes to very thin levels in places, which makes the modeling difficult and more error prone.I believe this is why distance and location based methods produce surprisingly similar results at the game level.

    9 – That said, when isolating on categoricals like SC/HDSC, you would want to apply an angle filter to remove the candidates that are obvious exceptions to the distance rule.That’s why something like 30/60 degrees for SC/HDSC makes sense to me, just because they are reasonable and, if observed on a screen, relatively intuitive.

    I think it would be helpful to know the first and second sigmas for determining high danger chances and also whether a player was really having a bad day or is it within the realm of normal.

    I also think that playing against poorer competition will naturally result in more long distance attempts when facing league average defense. Ideally we would want to know when individuals are outperforming their normal offense against a given defense pair. I know that’s a lot of granularity that probably doesn’t have a big enough sample size to make sense, but like I said, ideally.

  128. frjohnk says:

    The more Im looking at Nurse’s numbers, there is a noticeable improvement over the last 2 months

    22 games

    *10 individual high scoring chances created ( Buff leads with 29 in 71 games)
    *48.3% HDSCF%

    *39 scoring chances created, that is 1.8 per game ( Burns creates 1.5 per game to lead the league, Burns has 106 in 72 games)
    *51.7% SCF%

    *47.8% CF%

    in the 31 games with Sekera and Schutlz

    *4 high danger chances created
    *40% HDSCF%

    *25 scoring chances created
    *44.8% scoring chance for %

    *44.8% corsi for %

    Last year I said “get Nail a fucking center!”
    This year Im saying, “get Nurse on the 3rd fucking pairing!”

    Im calling it now.

    Nurse will not only be in the top 4 next year at sometime, he’ll have earned it.

    *runs*

  129. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    Ah, that makes more sense to me. I guess I didn’t realize that the 1.0 and 2.0 DFF had such direct meaning.

    In that case, I think your cut-offs make intuitive sense.

    Scoring Chance is anything with above average danger.

    High Danger Scoring Chance is anything with double the average danger (Double Danger).

    I like it!

    As a side note, every time you discuss danger fenwick, I think of John Oliver when he was covering for the Daily Show a couple summers ago doing his Carlos Danger dance… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjiSm4ZPVKM

    I feel like a gif of this should be the official DangerFenwick gif… like maybe this: http://gph.is/1bbLKHX

  130. vinotintazo says:

    frjohnk: *runs*

    fast

  131. frjohnk says:

    G Money,

    Ive been busy today and have only skimmed over your comments and I wanted to respond but Woodguy had me doing homework during recess and lunchtime. Grrr!

    Wondering if you could add rush shots to your calculations? Or keep them separate, just to see if they make a difference at all?

    Absolutely love the path you are on and if your data could be gathered together so it was on a site like WOI, it would be better than WOI.

    And I think WOI is the best

  132. frjohnk says:

    vinotintazo: frjohnk: *runs*
    fast

    not too fast.

    Gotta take care of my pubis!

  133. Drew says:

    G Money: To recap a few things, here is how DFF is derived:

    1 – I looked at all unblocked shots over a 5 year period.The sh% for that group is what I define to be the ‘average’ shot – it is something in the order of ~5%.

    2 – I then looked at all shots by distance and type, and modeled that (extremely noisy) data produce a sh% vs distance curve for every shot type.

    3 – I can then assign danger in this very simple and intuitive way: the danger of any given shot type at any given distance is simply the modeled sh% divided by the overall sh%.So when I declare that a 16 ft slap shot has a Danger of 1.988, it means that the sh% of that shot from that distance is 1.988 x ~5%.In that sense, the Danger rating has a very direct meaning.

    4 – So when I declare the average shot to be a 28 ft (it’s 28 not 29, oops) wrist shot, all it means is that the Danger rating for that shot is the closest thing to 1.0 that I have (it’s actually 0.993).

    5 – So you could set a measure that a scoring chance is anything with a Danger > 1.0; that’s a reasonably meaningful cutoff.

    6 – Similarly, you could declare a ‘high’ danger chance to be anything with Danger > 2.0; that literally means it is more than twice as dangerous as an ‘average’ Fenwick.

    7 – The angle restriction is to address the flaw in the ointment (heh heh), which is that my danger ratings are purely distance based.There is obviously a reduction in danger at extreme angles that a distance based method doesn’t account for (which is why you can argue that location based methods are superior).

    8 – However, in practice, the vast majority of shots are at relatively mild angles.Also, the precision advantage that is gained by using location is weakened by the fact that distributing the data over a full 2D space reduces the data volumes to very thin levels in places, which makes the modeling difficult and more error prone.I believe this is why distance and location based methods produce surprisingly similar results at the game level.

    9 – That said, when isolating on categoricals like SC/HDSC, you would want to apply an angle filter to remove the candidates that are obvious exceptions to the distance rule.That’s why something like 30/60 degrees for SC/HDSC makes sense to me, just because they are reasonable and, if observed on a screen, relatively intuitive.

    G, this looks amazing. can we call it the G Zone
    Stat???

    You can even drill down to the optimal place on the ice to shoot from and call it the “G Spot”.

  134. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk:
    The more Im looking at Nurse’s numbers, there is a noticeable improvement over the last 2 months

    22 games

    *10 individual high scoring chances created ( Buff leads with 29)
    *48.3% HDSCF%

    -39 scoring chances created, that is 1.8 per game ( Burns creates 1.5 per game to lead the league, Burns has 106 in 72 games)
    *51.7% SCF%

    *47.8% CF%

    in the 31 games with Sekera and Schutlz

    *4 high danger chances created
    -40% HDSCF%

    *25 scoring chances created
    *44.8% scoring chance for %

    *44.8% corsi for %

    Last year I said “get Nail a fucking center!”
    This year Im saying, “get Nurse on the 3rd fucking pairing!”

    Im calling it now.

    Nurse will not only be in the top 4 next year at sometime, he’ll have earned it.

    *runs*

    I blasted Nurse on his zone entries against for his first couple games back from suspension. He was giving up the line way to easily and leaving a large gap.

    Last game, though, he was notably better at this. He was challenging at the line and forcing a few more dump-ins. Now, G Money’s DFA60 painted him a poor light, so perhaps once in the zone he and Clendening did not do a great job at preventing high danger chances. However, in regards to zone transitions, it was much better.

    His zone exits were also notably better. @P3rryK pointed out that the Avs don’t play a particularly aggressive forecheck, which I saw most evidently in the 3rd when they had the lead. In that setting, Nurse rocked the controlled zone exits, particularly carrying the puck as opposed to passing. None of the other Oilers’ D carry the puck for a zone exit often, even Oesterle. Nurse really brought that to his game against the Avs.

    It’ll be interesting to see that one game was a one-off or if he’ll start to put it together.

    As for his partner… JW in his player grades at Cult of Hockey noted that Clendening was pulled back in TOI as Nurse got double-shifted with other partners. Clendening also was the only Oilers D that McLellan seemed to actively try to avoid playing against Landeskog. I think it’s safe to say that Clendening is not going to be back next year.

  135. spoiler says:

    wheatnoil: Ah, that makes more sense to me. I guess I didn’t realize that the 1.0 and 2.0 DFF had such direct meaning.

    Neither did I. That’s a nice way of ranking, but I would still like to know how often we can reasonably expect 2.0 events (etc) to occur.

  136. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    The more Im looking at Nurse’s numbers, there is a noticeable improvement over the last 2 months

    22 games

    *10 individual high scoring chances created ( Buff leads with 29 in 71 games)
    *48.3% HDSCF%

    *39 scoring chances created, that is 1.8 per game ( Burns creates 1.5 per game to lead the league, Burns has 106 in 72 games)
    *51.7% SCF%

    *47.8% CF%

    in the 31 games with Sekera and Schutlz

    *4 high danger chances created
    *40% HDSCF%

    *25 scoring chances created
    *44.8% scoring chance for %

    *44.8% corsi for %

    Last year I said “get Nail a fucking center!”
    This year Im saying, “get Nurse on the 3rd fucking pairing!”

    Im calling it now.

    Nurse will not only be in the top 4 next year at sometime, he’ll have earned it.

    *runs*

    We need to remember that most of his minutes with Sekera were actually 2nd pairing as Klef-Schultz played the most and mostly against the best (mileage varies per game)

    I wonder which of Sekera or Nurse were on right side.

    That probably has a lot to do with it as well.

  137. Lowetide says:

    Nurse had a nice thing going with Gryba, that would probably have been a good spot to keep him.

    http://www.corsica.hockey/combos/

  138. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    I’ll be really interested to see what you find.

    I was looking at this briefly (not nearly as narrow as it needed to be but just poking around some good defensemen), and it seemed to echo that they basically are what they are when they come into the league, which doesn’t exactly bode well for Nurse.

  139. BONVIE says:

    pboy:
    Henry,

    I can’t help but think that this is much more on the player’s than on the multiple coaching staffs. When they get the puck to the net and decide to outwork the other team, they create scoring chances. When they pass the puck around and look for perfect passing seams, they end up chasing the puck back to their own zone. Regardless of personnel they have or don’t have (a hammer from the point), the players lack of will determines 90% + of their effectiveness IMO.

    Yep this sums it up for me, much more than last years theme, if we had league average goaltending and this years theme lets blame our defense for everything. Truth is when the players in that dressing room learn how to outwork their oppononents for 60 minutes game after game, then we will win alot of hockey games.

    Its funny because some posters are at their breaking point yet the Oilers in the last ten have put forth their best effort, maybe with the exception of that PP.

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