PROCUREMENT SEASON

You know, it is difficult to tell how big a deal these young men are in the beginning. In baseball, college men are attractive because they are so much closer to helping the big league team (Dave Winfield went right to the show, never looked back), so in a way getting a college player jump starts the entire professional organization. Remember Matt O’Connor? Here is what I wrote last April:

  • For the Edmonton Oilers, acquiring a player like Matt O’Connor would be a pretty big deal. The organization badly needs to improve up the middle and acquiring an advanced prospect like O’Connor offers cover for procurement mistakes of the past. If the Oilers get O’Connor, how much of a difference will it make? Source

It is a big deal, and for Edmonton signing a college goalie this summer eases (somewhat) the 2014 draft and two goalies who have not fared well in the last two seasons (Zach Nagelvoort, Keven Bouchard). Edmonton hasn’t had a lot of success in drafting goalies, but have signed some college men (Ty Conklin) in the position.

Peter Chiarelli is reportedly after him, and this would be a very nice get. Lyon plays in the ECAC, and the conference has massive save percentages—but even with that, Lyon is .939 and .936 in his most recent seasons. That is outstanding. Hope they get him, because as mentioned, the 2014 draft isn’t going to help.

By the way, around the time of O’Connor a year ago, Matty wrote the following:

  • Matheson: The Oilers may also be interested in O’Connor’s teammate, Finnish defenceman/forward Ahti Oksanen, also a free-agent. The six-foot-three, 205-pound Oksanen had 25 goals in 40 games this past season when moved from the back-end. Source

You never know. One thing about college free agents, they sometimes surprise you. Early in Jordan Oesterle’s pro career, I spoke to a hockey man about him. Oesterle’s speed was intoxicating, but the gap between college and pro was so wide the chaos factor seemed to be too much. The gap has been closed in the ensuing years, and Edmonton might have themselves a useful player. That kind of procurement is very important to a team like the Oilers, especially as a way of making up for weak draft seasons (as we saw in 2014). Corey Pronman is the one guy who said he like Oesterle’s chances when he turned pro (while also mentioning he needed some work).

CHIARELLI AND BOB GREEN: WORKING MEN

I have been writing about this for about a month now, and you are probably sick of it. That said, there is real urgency here, the organization has some massive gaps. I sometimes wonder if Peter Chiarelli looks at the Oilers 2014 draft and shakes his head. The new GM is inside signing season and has no draft picks of his own to sign. I bet it keeps him up nights, and it should.

 

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45 Responses to "PROCUREMENT SEASON"

  1. CapeBretonOilers says:

    Fist ?!

  2. Bruce McCurdy says:

    At least Chiarelli was able to recover the 5th round pick from 2014 when he turned Liam Coughlin into Anders Nilsson into a 2016 5th round pick. Plan Next is not to burn said pick on an overager from the BCHL.

  3. ASkoreyko says:

    Speaking of Matt O’Connor he seems to be getting outplayed by the Sens 3rd round pick from 2012 Chris Driedger.

    Honestly looking at O’Connor’s numbers you kind of wonder what the big deal was about at the time. I know goalies do not develop in a straight line but if the idea of College players being a little further along on their development timeline then it is not looking so hot for O’Connor.

    I thought I remember some people/teams talking about possibly guaranteeing a roster spot to this player. It just goes to show you the danger is such lines of thinking sometimes.

    Hype is strange beast.

  4. The Hermit says:

    CapeBretonOilers:
    Fist ?!

    No thanks.

  5. Lowetide says:

    ASkoreyko:
    Speaking of Matt O’Connor he seems to be getting outplayed by the Sens 3rd round pick from 2012 Chris Driedger.

    Honestly looking at O’Connor’s numbers you kind of wonder what the big deal was about at the time. I know goalies do not develop in a straight line but if the idea of College players being a little further along on their development timeline then it is not looking so hot for O’Connor.

    I thought I remember some people/teams talking about possibly guaranteeing a roster spot to this player. It just goes to show you the danger is such lines of thinking sometimes.

    Hype is strange beast.

    It is tough. I like Bob Green, but am trying like hell not to Magnificent Bastard him, so am slow playing things. I do think he has been very good so far.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Man, that 2014 draft… after the first two picks… it was just random and awful.

    The pair of “hmmm, maybe?” picks (Nagel and Vesel) were equally meh, only looking reasonable by comparison.

    Still… they got Leon.

    And… Lagesson seems like a not-terrible guy to have in the system stewing, I’ll be looking for a spike in offence in his sophomore season.

    It would be hilarious if WL turns into a depth NHL D and plays 100 games. People will look back on 2014 and say: “huh… not a bad draft year!” and forget all the terrible, no-chance bets they made for no damn reason.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Man, that 2014 draft… after the first two picks… it was just random and awful.

    The pair of “hmmm, maybe?” picks (Nagel and Vesel) were equally meh, only looking reasonable by comparison.

    Still… they got Leon.

    And… Lagesson seems like a not-terrible guy to have in the system stewing, I’ll be looking for a spike in offence in his sophomore season.

    It would be hilarious if WL turns into a depth NHL D and plays 100 games. People will look back on 2014 and say: “huh… not a bad draft year!” and forget all the terrible, no-chance bets they made for no damn reason.

    I wonder what Chiarelli asked about that draft? Who decided on Coughlin? At what point did we think maybe there were two many long shots? Did we think the CHL was so bad taking another guy after Leon would have killed us? We saw Bouchard how many times?

    The other funny one is Evan Campbell, who last I checked was a HS for Mass-Lowell in sweet 16 games. That is crazy.

  8. Psyche says:

    Does this mean the Oilers can sign a Finn (Ahti Oksanen) with a Boston accent? What would that even sound like?

  9. Lowetide says:

    Psyche:
    Does this mean the Oilers can sign a Finn (Ahti Oksanen) with a Boston accent? What would that even sound like?

    Van Morrison.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    Took a quick look at Q Goalers.
    Sorted them by GP, took the Top 20
    Sorted them by Save % [Bouchard was 20th]
    Looking for undrafted, 20-years-old, and at least 185 cm tall.
    [And, yes, I know how tall Fuhr and Moog are]

    Fifth on the Save% list:
    Louis-Philip Guindon
    Goalie — shoots L
    Born Apr 21 1995 — Montreal, PQ
    [20 yrs. ago]
    Height 6.01 — Weight 181 [185 cm/82 kg]
    Rimouski Oceanic — GP — Pct
    2014-15 — 14 — 0.909
    2015-16 — 57 — 0.905

  11. Psyche says:

    Lowetide,

    Beauty observation.

    I was lost and double crossed
    With my hands behind my back
    I was longtime hurt and thrown in the dirt
    Shoved out on the railroad track
    I’ve been used, abused and so confused
    And I had nowhere to run
    But I stood and looked
    And my eyes got hooked
    On that beautiful morning sun
    – Brand New Day

  12. Lowetide says:

    A really good article on Euro players who might come over. From Dustin Nelson at THW

    http://app.fanly.me/article/pmBFyhoiGr

  13. Gret99zky says:

    CapeBretonOilers:
    Fist ?!

    Nope. That’s an ON thing. (Brownlee loves it.)

    For the infraction you get two minutes in the camping box.

    And then you get free.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Took a quick look at Q Goalers.
    Sorted them by GP, took the Top 20
    Sorted them by Save % [Bouchard was 20th]
    Looking for undrafted, 20-years-old, and at least 185 cm tall.
    [And, yes, I know how tall Fuhr and Moog are]

    Fifth on the Save% list:Louis-Philip GuindonGoalie — shoots LBorn Apr 21 1995 — Montreal, PQ[20 yrs. ago]Height 6.01 — Weight 181 [185 cm/82 kg]
    Rimouski Oceanic—GP—Pct
    2014-15—14—0.909
    2015-16—57—0.905

    Bouchard 20th. Jesus.

  15. fifthcartel says:

    I would love to sit in on the Oilers draft table.

    Scouts vote 9-2 in favour of one player? nah lets take the other guy.

    Goalie with a sub .890 save percentage in the QMJHL? Draft him!

    Overage player playing in a tier-2 junior league? Draft him!

    Big WHL defensemen with skating issues and no offense? Draft him (to be fair, looks like they’ve managed to stay away from these the last few years).

  16. Alpine says:

    Never ceases to amaze me how the oilers swing wildly from walkabout (2009) to looking competent in the draft (2010) to reverting back to walkabout (2011 3rd round, 2012) to semi competent (2013) to walkabout (2014) and back to competent (2015).

    I think they must rely on saw on him good in later rounds and usually base it off a game or two they watched where draft-pick-to-be scored.

  17. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide,

    – Interesting list for sure. Justin Pogge is a name that could be worth a flyer: try-out training camp…

  18. Lowetide says:

    Alpine:
    Never ceases to amaze me how the oilers swing wildly from walkabout (2009) to looking competent in the draft (2010) to reverting back to walkabout (2011 3rd round, 2012) to semi competent (2013) to walkabout (2014) and back to competent (2015).

    I think they must rely on saw on him good in later rounds and usually base it off a game or two they watched where draft-pick-to-be scored.

    I think part of it might be that they look at how many players need to be signed in specific years. I think MacT wanted a quiet year after the 2013 kids looked good early. But this entire draft isn’t going to be signed (beyond Leon and in a year or so Lagesson). Crazy. I wonder if they just wanted to kick a draft year into college.

  19. RJ2016 says:

    Does PC have a strong track record of signing college free agents?

  20. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    This draft will be very telling of Bob Greene, early results look fine but like the players this needs 5 years.

    Many teams are competitive 100% due to their draft.

    We played one the other night with a beauty D corps.

  21. Lowetide says:

    RJ2016:
    Does PC have a strong track record of signing college free agents?

    Blake Wheeler was a nice signing.

  22. Stelio Kontos says:

    I don’t understand the signing argument. Wouldn’t you rather risk losing a Reider than take a Coughlin?

  23. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: I think MacT wanted a quiet year after the 2013 kids looked good early.

    Then why not trade the picks?

  24. Professor Q says:

    Yikes. That Byf hit on Stone.

    Wowzas.

  25. Hockey Buddha says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Man, that 2014 draft… after the first two picks… it was just random and awful.

    The pair of “hmmm, maybe?” picks (Nagel and Vesel) were equally meh, only looking reasonable by comparison.

    Still… they got Leon.

    And… Lagesson seems like a not-terrible guy to have in the system stewing, I’ll be looking for a spike in offence in his sophomore season.

    It would be hilarious if WL turns into a depth NHL D and plays 100 games. People will look back on 2014 and say: “huh… not a bad draft year!” and forget all the terrible, no-chance bets they made for no damn reason.

    I agree. Draisaitl makes the 2014 draft memorable for me. He was a terrific selection. He’s a heck of a hockey player, and he would get more love this season if he wasn’t in the large shadow cast by Connor McDavid. The Oilers took a lot of flak from all over the place for the Draisaitl selection (a ton of “because Oilers” comments from everywhere); it does look like Drai was entirely the right decision in hindsight, and that was an important selection to get right in 2014.

    In comparison with other years, the organization made a number of great looking selections in the late rounds in the 2015 draft, under Chiarelli. I’m not sure who the major influences were on all of these good decisions made in the late rounds of the draft, but it looks like some very nice things might have been acquired with some of those late round picks. Bob Green was a MacTavish hire, and I suspect he was a force behind some of those selections. MacT should get some of the credit for the Bob Green hire. He’s plugged in. Jones, Bear, and Paigin make me smile as later round picks.

    Getting back to the 2014 draft, one of the keys was that after Drai, Edmonton didn’t have a second pick (traded with Paajarvi for Perron) or a third (traded for Scrivens), and certainly after round two, you are standing more at the roulette wheel at the draft. Lagesson does seem to have been a decent selection. The goalie selections appear to be based on some faulty intelligence at this point.

    I really don’t blame MacT for using picks to try and fill some of the gaping roster holes in 2014; he didn’t have the luxury of the trade assets that Chiarelli has inherited (Draisaitl and McDavid have really changed the landscape of what’s possible), so MacT was left with little but draft picks to work with in the summer of 2014. 2014 is now mostly memorable for the missing second and third round selections, for Leon and possibly Legasson. The trades for Scrivens and Perron seemed like reasonable bets at the time.

    If the Oilers can continue to make good, calculated picks late like they did later in the 2015 draft, I’ll be very happy with the level of competence within the organization. I also think that Chiarelli is entering the organization at a far better time than any of his predecessors, but he should be given credit (alongside Nicholson) for cleaning house in areas that needed to be. The org does seem to be in healthier shape as an org at key levels. I hope the 2015 draft is a new trend and not an anomaly.

  26. Aron_S says:

    Lowetide:
    A really good article on Euro players who might come over. From Dustin Nelson at THW

    http://app.fanly.me/article/pmBFyhoiGr

    Every time you post an article from Dustin Nelson, I read it as Nielson and my brain misfires. “Nielson is writing for THW now?” I’ll have to tweet him on the great job he’s doing.

  27. Chachi says:

    Professor Q,

    It hurt just watching that hit.

  28. Aron_S says:

    Did anyone else catch that first period of the Flames game vs the Ducks? I really think the Oilers are going to win their final 3 games and be 29th overall (ahead of Vancouver), when I look at the tire fire that is Calgary and Vancouver are putting on the ice.

  29. Skeeziks says:

    I have been sitting in front of my TV listening to Hrudey wax poetic about the amazing Calgary Flames who are, without a doubt, the best and most exciting 25th place team in NHL history.

    Kelly, how is it possible that about 5 minutes into the second period they are losing 5-0 to Anaheim?

    He is such an ass.

  30. striatic says:

    Aron_S:
    Did anyone else catch that first period of the Flames game vs the Ducks? I really think the Oilers are going to win their final 3 games and be 29th overall (ahead of Vancouver), when I look at the tire fire that is Calgary and Vancouver are putting on the ice.

    The Flames are making the Oilers look great when comparing their most recent performances against the Ducks.

  31. dangilitis says:

    Lowetide: Blake Wheeler was a nice signing.

    Extremely nice signing.

    I really do wish they closed the damn loophole about college draft picks, though. Reading the story about Vesey makes me angry. Poille doesn’t put the pressure on him so he can earn his Harvard degree, and is by all accounts a fair and competent GM. Meanwhile, Jimmy Jr. probably knew for 2 years that he wasn’t coming to Nashville. If he goes to Toronto, there should be a serious investigation. If they can review Widemann’s text messages, they should do the same with Vesey Sr and Jr, and Leafs’ management.

    Full disclosure, I definitely wore blinders when it came to Schultz. Mostly because we gifted the Ducks a Stanley Cup contender, so frankly I didn’t give a shit if Snoop Dogg and the 5 other Ducks fans were disappointed… at the time… But it’s the greater college prospects that tend to exercise this right, and it is really unjust for the team that drafted and followed such a player for a US presidential term only to watch him leave without, in this case, even a good-bye. It is definitely hard to cheer for these players.

  32. Water Fire says:

    dangilitis: Extremely nice signing.

    I really do wish they closed the damn loophole about college draft picks, though. Reading the story about Vesey makes me angry. Poille doesn’t put the pressure on him so he can earn his Harvard degree, and is by all accounts a fair and competent GM. Meanwhile, Jimmy Jr. probably knew for 2 years that he wasn’t coming to Nashville. If he goes to Toronto, there should be a serious investigation. If they can review Widemann’s text messages, they should do the same with Vesey Sr and Jr, and Leafs’ management.

    Full disclosure, I definitely wore blinders when it came to Schultz. Mostly because we gifted the Ducks a Stanley Cup contender, so frankly I didn’t give a shit if Snoop Dogg and the 5 other Ducks fans were disappointed… at the time… But it’s the greater college prospects that tend to exercise this right, and it is really unjust for the team that drafted and followed such a player for a US presidential term only to watch him leave without, in this case, even a good-bye. It is definitely hard to cheer for these players.

    But that would involve doing that managery thingy instead of just thumbing chummy emails from various New York eateries and golf courses. Nobody can expect that of Gary B and Bill Dogg!

  33. sliderule says:

    The western Canadian prairie teams have to draft well if they are going to compete.

    Craig Simpson commented on Stauffer that signing free agents will always be a problem.The players spouses perception of these cities is Siberia..If you look at weather records you can see our weather is not different than Ottawa or Minnesota and many of the northeastern NHL cities but perception is more important than reality.

    I think most would agree in the 2015 draft the oilers used their picks well.

    The 2016 draft is even more important in that the oilers can do the long term fix on their defence.History shows that the defensive prospects that will be available will contribute in the first or second year at least as well as the forward prospects.I have been pushing Chychrun because of his boxes ,prospect game testing and viewings but the oilers have scouts and way more viewings so they may have one of the other two rated higher.

    The oiler management and scouts will have to resist the allure of another flashy forward and either trade down a spot or two and make the defensive pick.

    The decision they make will determine whether they are a team that can compete for the cup or an unbalanced team that will make playoffs but die in first or second round

  34. Lowetide says:

    Aron_S: Every time you post an article from Dustin Nelson, I read it as Nielson and my brain misfires. “Nielson is writing for THW now?” I’ll have to tweet him on the great job he’s doing.

    Me too! Double take every time.

  35. unca miltie says:

    sliderule,

    Funny you mention the weather in Minneapolis. I have monitored the weather in that area daily this year because I travel there on business. It has been very rare when the weather there has been nicer than here.

    Just got a chance to read the comments on the previous post. LT please stay true to who you are and continue to post as you always have. My observation is that over time, some of the posters behaviours from O.N. has migrated to this site. (Even though there are good writers at O.N. I very rarely go there anymore because of the comments.)
    IMO you do a pretty good job keeping the commenters here in line. Thank you for this site

  36. El Duderino says:

    I just had another look at the 07, 08, 09, and 10 Drafts. Little wonder why the Oilers are pooched. Why oh why, have they drafted so poorly? I ask myself this about once every year. Bob McKenzie’s list would have been much better. Lowe’s philosophy?

  37. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: It is tough. I like Bob Green, but am trying like hell not to Magnificent Bastard him, so am slow playing things. I do think he has been very good so far.

    I need to be careful how I choose my words. Bob Green has been solid on some fronts. On the other hand, his verbal that he hadn’t seen Reinhart play since junior but still recommended trading a very prime pick in a very deep draft, plus another high pick for him does seem like a yellow flag to me.

    I am trying to look at his work with a balanced eye.
    The later round picks last summer were nice.

  38. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    El Duderino:
    I just had another look at the 07, 08, 09, and 10 Drafts. Little wonder why the Oilers are pooched.Why oh why, have they drafted so poorly?I ask myself this about once every year. Bob McKenzie’s list would have been much better. Lowe’s philosophy?

    07 was a killer, yes. But LT has already done a McKenzie list vs. MacGregor and the only glaring miss was Marincin over Toffoli, I believe.

  39. rickithebear says:

    Alpine:
    Never ceases to amaze me how the oilers swing wildly from walkabout (2009) to looking competent in the draft (2010) to reverting back to walkabout (2011 3rd round, 2012) to semi competent (2013) to walkabout (2014) and back to competent (2015).

    I think they must rely on saw on him good in later rounds and usually base it off a game or two they watched where draft-pick-to-be scored.

    Shuckers Draft pick chart:
    Chance of 200gm player
    Picks 1 to 3 92.7 – 82.6%
    picks 4 to 6 78.3 – 66.5%
    picks 7 to 12 66.5 – 50.7%
    12 picks in it is a coin flip

    picks 13 to 21 48.1 – 33.6%
    we are at 1 in 3 become players

    picks 22 to 31 32.4% – 25.5%
    we are at 1 in 4

    Picks 32 to 43 24.6 – 19.9%
    we re at 1 in 5

    Picks 44 to 73 19.6 – 16.7%
    we are at 1in 6

    Picks 74 to 92 16.5 – 12.5%
    1 in 8

    Picks 93 to 105 12.2 – 9.9%
    1 in 10

    Picks 106 to 137 9.8 – 8.3%
    1 in 12

    Picks 138 to 173 8.3 – 7.1%
    1 in 14

    Picks 174 to 190 7.0 – 6.2
    1 in 16

    Picks 191 to 210 6.2 – 5.1
    1 in 20

    Draft hind sight is BULL SHIT!

    Everyone likes to point to Datsyuk as the detroit drafting Model.

    The scouts thought/picked these better players ahead of him.
    J. Fisher #25
    R. Barnes
    T. Valtonen
    J. McCracken
    B. hobday
    C. Steen
    A. Deleeuw
    Detroit’s great drafting was shit Fucking Luck!

  40. Dominoiler says:

    rickithebear:

    Draft hind sight is BULL SHIT!

    Everyone likes to point to Datsyuk as the detroit drafting Model.

    This doesnt make the Moroz or Musil picks in the 2nd round any better in the context of their drafts (I actually still keep a candle lit for ol Musil, may see him yet on some teams post expansion draft 3rd pairing?!).. Just because the draft is predominantly luck based doesnt mean that the oilers, as an org, dont deserve to be held accountable for shitty reach picks (bemoaned by countless arm chair GMs, which just so happens to be right in our wheelhouse)

  41. hunter1909 says:

    El Duderino: I just had another look at the 07, 08, 09, and 10 Drafts. Little wonder why the Oilers are pooched. Why oh why, have they drafted so poorly? I ask myself this about once every year.

    It’s fairly easy. Just apply logic, as in:

    Q: Who is the single person who over the past decade has been in charge of the team?

    A: Kevin Lowe and his bumbling, cack-handed henchmen.

    PS: Extra hilarity when you recall Katz’s pitch to the city of Edmonton…promising a “World Class” operation. Guess no one knew that meant: “World Class Terrible”.

  42. season not played says:

    hunter1909,

    Possibly the worst run organization in the history of sports tho I’m sure someone will be able to bring up some competitors.

    Full marks for where they have sat in the standings for the last decade.

  43. Fortinbras says:

    8:35 and no new post… Is everything okay?

  44. Melman says:

    dangilitis,

    That’s valid. One thing the NHL could do is offer a compensatory draft pick like the NFL does. The pick isn’t taken from another team (or it could but that opens a big fan of legal worms), but rather gets added to the end of round ‘X’ based on the salary the player signs. It’s only 1 or 2 players a year. Makes too much sense for the NHL to adopt something like that.

  45. Melman says:

    season not played:
    hunter1909,

    Possibly the worst run organization in the history of sports tho I’m sure someone will be able to bring up some competitors.

    Full marks for where they have sat in the standings for the last decade.

    It truly is remarkable. I would have thought it hard to be that bad for so long even if you were trying to do it on purpose.

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