LEAVING ON A JET PLANE

It’s easy to forget that Peter Chiarelli had a helluva list of chores when he took over the Edmonton Oilers. Yesterday, we looked at the team’s centers over the last 12 months. From the point he took over to today, Chiarelli flushed Boyd Gordon and Derek Roy, while bringing in Connor McDavid and Mark Letestu—and he got lucky with Leon Draisaitl’s emergence. Today, we look at the goalies and defensemen.

talbot capture 2

EDMONTON’S GOALIES

On the day he took over, Peter Chiarelli inherited this goalie depth chart:

  • G Ben Scrivens
  • G Laurent Brossoit
  • G Tyler Bunz (RFA)
  • G Frans Tuohimaa (RFA)

After he took over, Chiarelli said goodbye to Bunz and Tuohimaa, may or may not have planned to buy out Ben Scrivens and added several new hires. At the draft, Cam Talbot was acquired, in mid-summer the team acquired Anders Nilsson for very little, and the team also signed Eetu Laurikainen to a deal in the spring. Here are my original estimates and the actual results this season:

  • Cam Talbot actual 53GP, 2.51 .918
  • Cam Talbot RE 50GP, 2.40 .920

I believe that is a direct hit in terms of projection. Talbot had real struggles early (as Oilers goalies have had over these years) but righted the ship and has been quality for several months. I think it makes sense to acquire a legit backup, but it looks to me as though PC can probably count on Talbot for 50-55 starts next year.

  • Anders Nilsson actual 26GP, 3.14 .901
  • Anders Nilsson RE 10GP, 2.80 .903

Save the GP total, I am content with this estimate. Nilsson ended up being a solid addition, and Chiarelli offloaded him for a fifth-rounder in the coming draft. Suspect the team may aim higher this summer in an effort to add a backup, but don’t discount Laurent Brossoit winning the backup job—especially if the team adds Alex Lyon via free agency.

  • Laurent Brossoit actual 5GP, 3.61 .873
  • Laurent Brossoit RE 3GP, 2.70 .909

Brossoit has played very little this year in the NHL, and the results have not been terrific. I do believe the organization might be a little less convinced that he is an answer for early next season, but there isn’t much doubt they like him as a long-term solution (as starter or backup).

  • Ben Scrivens actual 15GP, 3.07 .906 (with Montreal)
  • Ben Scrivens RE 19GP, 2.95 .902

I will count that as a match, somewhat surprised the Oilers didn’t use him before he was dealt (the difference between Nilsson and Scrivens is very little). Recently sent to the AHL, there was some real venom in some of the verbal from the player after he beat Edmonton during the year. It doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, suspect the parting was not sweet sorrow.

klefbom capture injury

EDMONTON’S DEFENSE

On the day Peter Chiarelli took over the Oilers, his defensive depth chart looked like this:

  1. D Nikita Nikitin
  2. D Justin Schultz (RFA)
  3. D Mark Fayne
  4. D Andrew Ference
  5. D Oscar Klefbom
  6. D Martin Marincin (RFA)
  7. D Keith Aulie (RFA)
  8. D Brad Hunt (RFA)
  9. D Jordan Oesterle
  10. D Brandon Davidson (RFA)
  11. D Dillon Simpson
  12. D Martin Gernat
  13. D David Musil
  14. D Darnell Nurse
  15. D Ben Betker
  16. D Joey Laleggia

I think it is fair to say Chiarelli’s 16 defensemen offered more problems than opportunities. Beginning at the bottom, there were three new pro’s (Nurse, Betker, Laleggia) who I believe PC wanted to keep in the minors for all (or much) or the year. The AHL group had a trio working toward the NHL (Musil, Simpson, Gernat) although Gernat had a knee issue and wasn’t a factor. Also in the AHL: Young speedster Jordan Oesterle and a bunch of RFA’s. Chiarelli signed Brandon Davidson and Brad Hunt flushed Keith Aulie and Martin Marincin and took Justin Schultz to arbitration.

One move he didn’t make? Exposing Brandon Davidson to waivers. It would have been a monster error and there was some pressure to do it (EDM kept 8D for a time) and some of us (me) suggested waiving him. Chiarelli kept him and was rewarded. He also signed Andrej Sekera in free agency, traded for Griffin Reinhart and Eric Gryba, and claimed Adam Clendening and Adam Pardy later in the year. It represented a tremendous amount of turnover, forced by the fact several of the highly paid men (Nikitin, Ference) were unable to play due to injury.

sekera capture

  • Andrej Sekera actual 78GP, 6-24-30 0.385 points-per-game
  • Andrej Sekera RE 70GP, 5-23-28 0.400 points-per-game

I think the RE estimated Sekera pretty well. A lot of people who comment on the Oilers have expressed disappointment in his performance, but for me Sekera is the best free-agent addition (among defenders) in many years. Absolutely aided the team and should be written in pen as part of the top 4D next year.

  • Oscar Klefbom actual 30GP, 4-8-12 0.400 points-per-game
  • Oscar Klefbom RE 70GP, 3-14-17 0.243 points-per-game

He outperformed his RE and if he is healthy next season the Oilers are going to be way better defensively. A strong year derailed, and I think one of the biggest factors in this lost year. Ten years into this mess, Edmonton’s bad luck remains arrow sharp. He was having a tremendous year, folks.

  • Justin Schultz actual 58GP, 4-10-14 0.241 points-per-game
  • Justin Schultz RE 74GP, 10-25-35 0.473 points-per-game

Some of the actual is with Pittsburgh, but it all adds up to a very poor year. To my eye structure has been better since he left, but that could be bias and I wish him well.

  • Brandon Davidson actual 51GP, 4-7-11 0.216 points-per-game
  • Brandon Davidson RE 9GP, 0-1-1 0.111 points-per-game

The boxcars don’t begin to explain his emergence and value to the year, but we will tackle it in the RE. The extreme value of a depth pick turning into a useful NHL player is here. Impressive young man.

nurse draisaitl capture

  • Darnell Nurse actual 66GP, 2-7-9 0.136 points-per-game
  • Darnell Nurse RE 50GP, 2-8-10 0.200 points-per-game

The RE did a decent job of estimating him, suspect Nurse has more offense than he has shown this year. The surprise for me is GP, he played pretty much the entire year. I hope he spikes in year two, and the Oilers can find him a stable partner.

  • Mark Fayne actual 66GP, 2-4-6 0.091 points-per-game
  • Mark Fayne RE 64GP, 3-7-10 0.156 points-per-game

I am the last remaining member of the Mark Fayne fan club, but the good thing is no one talks back at the meetings. We will get into it during the RE series, but his possession numbers have value and he forms an effective duo with Andrej Sekera—and I will agree to trade him the moment Edmonton has six more capable NHL veterans on blue. I’ll wait right here.

OILERS DEFENSE OVER SEASON

CHIARELLI SUMMER LIST

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (Jason Demers)
  2. Scoring winger from free agency (Lee Stempniak)
  3. Offload unwanted contracts (Lauri Korpikoski)
  4. Backup goalie (Jhonas Enroth, but may cost too much)
  5. Re-stock the system partly through college and CHL signings (Benik, but also Winquist, et al)
  6. Build up the system (especially forwards) via draft (Laine, Tyler Benson)

yakupov common3

TRADING POST

  • Jim Matheson: The Oilers are crying for a puck-moving defenceman to get the attack going, which is why Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli will definitely be making a big deal at the draft (giving up Hall or Eberle or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) to get one. Kevin Shattenkirk would be my No. 1 target, but his contract is up July 1, 2017, and he’d have agree to a long-term deal before a trade. Sami Vatanen would look good with the Oilers, too. Source

I’ll let you in on a little secret (that you already know). Jim Matheson, since the 1970s, has broken more stories—and flown more ideas—than dollars you own. You young folks may not be impressed by it, but you don’t get that many scoops without wearing out a pair of shoes (or two). In the current construct (Peter Chiarelli is GM, and I don’t think he talks to many people about the plan, man) I believe Mark Spector is the most connected man among the independent media in the city of Edmonton. The kicker? I am unsure his contacts are local. Make sense? Of course, Bob Stauffer remains the gold standard but even then it is uncertain how much Chiarelli says out loud (or writes on his whiteboard). Much of the breaking news surrounding the Oilers comes from the east, and I think that is a tell.

What does it all mean? Well, for you and me, sussing out the actual factual is one big bloody moving target. As I have mentioned to you many times, I have no direct connection to the Edmonton Oilers and the club prefers to use other shows to get their message out. Still, there have been times when you hear rumors or someone texts you something and you can track down some form of confirmation. The only time I have ever been unable to find any rumors in the city of Edmonton? Steve Tambellini as GM. Either he didn’t talk to anyone, or there were no outgoing calls.

Which brings me to Matty’s quote above. Now, I am not like many of you, who regard Matheson as so old school they are close to tearing the building down. Jim Matheson long ago earned my respect and that won’t change. I will say that the quote above is less likely to be ‘the goods’ and more likely to be ‘Matty speculating’ than in the past. No shot at Matheson, I just think Peter Chiarelli doesn’t show his cards to anyone. It is probably the wisest move, but for me it is a royal pain in the ass.

I have been spinning around (right round, like a record baby) over what might happen this spring, and have kind of decided that Chiarelli is going to make moves that are below the $6 million mark. I think I think the players heading out are going to be the less expensive men—like Benoit Pouliot, Mark Fayne, Nail Yakupov. I also think that means the returns will be lesser—Cam Fowler, Eric Gelinas, Damon Severson—and we are very likely to see the new defensemen fall well short of ‘impact’ for 2016-17. I think the top defender coming to town is going to be (one of) Jason Demers or Travis Hamonic—not both—and that the Oilers are going to have enough depth (because of the additions) to send both Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart (plus Jordan Oesterle, David Musil, etc) to the minors.

hurdle gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

On the show today, 10 this morning TSN1260:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Baseball in Montreal, next Canadian team to win Stanley.
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260 Oil Kings PBP. The horse is out of the barn.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN 1260. Point-Counter Point tackles the Chiarelli summer.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Man U. plunge down the table, Oilers at the draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

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104 Responses to "LEAVING ON A JET PLANE"

  1. rich says:

    Great read this morning LT.

    Truly believe that the blueline holds the key to the future. If Chia can properly address this without tearing down the middle (goal-blue-centre) the team will turn north next season. If he moves a piece from the middle out, it adds another hole to fill – and it will be very big.

    For the record, I remain a fan of Fayne for the role he can play. You always have injuries on defense and can’t have enough serviceable vets. Fayne is that. Can play higher in the order than Gryba or Pardy. His numbers paired w/Sekera have been better.

    If the Oilers can bring at least 1 solid d-man into to play with Klefbom next season, you can move Fayne up and down the roster (between 2nd & 3rd pairing) and be fine. If they bring in 2 top d-men, it’s going to be very hard to keep Fayne given the cap/price-tag.

    May we finally find that Lost Horizon. It’s been very cold wandering in the wilderness these last 10 years. Godspeed Chia.

  2. Truth says:

    It would be worthwhile to take a shot at Severson. The Kelowna Rockets seem to know something about future NHL defensemen that others do not.

    To me, one of the $6 M men does not equal Shattenkirk. Nuge for ( a committed) Shattenkirk and (a committed) Sobotka or Berglund might be realistic for a return. Maybe?

  3. dustrock says:

    LT, agree that though we need two top 2 d-men, we’ll get one.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    Next year we need a RE on the hurdler.

  5. dustrock says:

    Truth:
    It would be worthwhile to take a shot at Severson. The Kelowna Rockets seem to know something about future NHL defensemen that others do not.

    To me, one of the $6 M men does not equal Shattenkirk.Nuge for ( a committed) Shattenkirk and (a committed) Sobotka or Berglund might be realistic for a return. Maybe?

    The ultimate trick is to land your #1 d-man for the next 10 years before it costs you Nuge or Eberle or whoever.

    I’m not convinced getting someone like Severson is going to be a huge help to this team – really think we need some established talented D and not take a risk on someone who might possibly turn out.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Had this exchange with a NJD blogger yesterday:

    NJ Devils News ‏@njdevilsnews
    So word is New Jersey tried to get Yakupov before the trade deadline. Let’s see if that resurfaces in the offseason.

    Havana ‏@MesaMoe
    @njdevilsnews @Woodguy55 any leaks who was going out ?

    NJ Devils News
    ‏@njdevilsnews
    @MesaMoe @Woodguy55 no, I’d assume someone like Gelinas or Severson could have been there depending how early they were talking.

    Now this is just shooting the shit on the internet and means nothing, but I think its a good point of reference.

    Yak (or Yak + something) for a non 1st pair Dman is probably one target and then a 1st pairing Dman (Hamonic or Demers type) is another target.

    I know you have only 1 RHD as a summer target, but I think that Chiarelli might have his eye on 2.

    Stauffer has been saying “add one Dman” for so long that it scares me a bit (they need more than one imo) but like you mentioned good Chia rumours don’t originate from people who are on Mountain Standard Time.

    From what I’ve seen Lebrun is his unofficial mouthpiece and Garrioch in OTT might get stuff too (given Chia’s long history in OTT this makes sense)

  7. bcoil says:

    I agree with you on the defence man and who is going out as a return to the other team. I cant see a six million dollar and going tout this year ……maybe in a year or so when more of the youth develops as in this years first rounder . I note that over the last couple of years both Spector and Matheson have started to talk about trades as if they where in the know but are obviously not when the actual move or lack there of play out . It must be taught for them to be on the outside with this new Management group where in the past they where being fed by the previous group.

  8. Lloyd B. says:

    I agree with your assessment on where Chia may go this summer. Fill in the D with a number of #3s and hope just one steps up like Klefbom did this year. Push all the others down a notch or two.

    Go with the three centers and the $6M dollar men for this year. Let McD and Drai grow into the #1 and 2 centres and get more experience.

    Next summer he should be able to clearly identify what piece or two is required to get to serious contender. Not just make the playoffs contender but take a serious run type contender. That is when I expect we’ll see the BHAT. ( Big Hairy Assed Trade)

    Chia has clearly shown a great ability to find the bigger skilled winger guys at a reasonable price. Makes guys like Pouliot expendable at his price point.

    The expansion draft(s) throw a bit of a wrench into the quicker RHD fix this summer.

  9. ASkoreyko says:

    I apologize if cutting this out of Matty’s article is not allowed:

    “Patrick Maroon on how McDavid had seen him back-door for his goal in L.A.: “He said he counted the numbers,” Maroon told an Anaheim media person. Like No. 14 accounted for. No. 25? I see him. No. 27?, There he is … uh, where’s No. 19? Where’s Maroon? Goalmouth? OK, check.”

    I went back and watched that sequence again.

    First McDavid does this brilliant little stick check deflection as the puck is coming to him and Lecavalier and proceeds to spin off of Lecavalier and slowly skates above hashmarks. That play alone shows his genius and then how much players respect his speed by not immediately trying to get on him.

    Then you can see McDavid start counting the Oilers in the zone and he clearly sees that Maroon is not in his field of vision. McDavid knowing Maroon now as a player assumes rightly that he is in the process of taking his giant frame to the front of net and delivers a perfect pass to exactly the right spot.

    I have watched this sequence more than once and the Oilers could even just this one play as a reason why Connor should win the Calder.

    Also the guy in the stands pointing to his watch was pretty funny as well.

    https://www.nhl.com/video/maroons-second-goal/t-279494836/c-42982903

  10. Woodguy says:

    dustrock: The ultimate trick is to land your #1 d-man for the next 10 years before it costs you Nuge or Eberle or whoever.

    I’m not convinced getting someone like Severson is going to be a huge help to this team – really think we need some established talented D and not take a risk on someone who might possibly turn out.

    If Chia acquires someone like Severson, its for the 2RD spot, not the 1RD spot.

    I’d be ok with a bit more of a swing there than the 1RD spot.

    1 RD needs to be bonafide.

    Severson’s NHL track record during his 119 games (turns 22 this summer) is good enough I’d be comfortable penciling him in at 2RD

  11. russ99 says:

    Love the idea of acquring an elite puck mover, get it done, Chia.

    This also bodes well for Klefbom (if we keep him) since he won’t be rushed into first pairing duty, and if we can also make Hamonic happen (moving Nurse better be off the table, dumb teams trade players like him), he’d be a solid partner for Klef, and is good at the things Klef is not.

    So we’d run with:

    Sekera – Shattenkirk
    Klefbom – Hamonic
    Nurse/Reinhart – Davidson

  12. russ99 says:

    Lloyd B.:
    I agree with your assessment on where Chia may go this summer.Fill in the D with a number of #3s and hope just one steps up like Klefbom did this year. Push all the others down a notch or two.

    Go with the three centers and the $6M dollar men for this year. Let McD and Drai grow into the #1 and 2 centres and get more experience.

    Next summer he should be able to clearly identify what piece or two is required to get to serious contender.Not just make the playoffs contender but take a serious run type contender.That is when I expect we’ll see the BHAT. ( Big Hairy Assed Trade)

    Chia has clearly shown a great ability to find the bigger skilled winger guys at a reasonable price. Makes guys like Pouliot expendable at his price point.

    The expansion draft(s) throw a bit of a wrench into the quicker RHD fix this summer.

    I really don’t see a path to the playoffs next year with lesser D acquisitions and hoping someone rises to the top and running three scoring lines. Chia/McLellan are running the team now, not Lowe/MacT.

    It might be possible (thought unlikely) with one group of the defensemen or forwards being solid defensively, but not with neither group being solid defensively.

  13. Frank the dog says:

    I will not be surprised if it’s Hall, Yak and a few smaller pieces heading out. One could surmise many things and make a complete fool of oneself but it is not impossible that Hall has quietly asked out.
    What would it take with Hall and Yak in play for a #1D? Is that not enough or too much?
    If not enough what else would need to be offered?

  14. Ducey says:

    Agreed on Matheson, LT. Its clear from reading his columns that he is still connected to some old WHL scouts, but that’s about it.

    He did report this morning (in the actual paper Journal – I still enjoy the morning paper) that Davidson has a sprained knee. I am no doctor, but that’s great news as presumably he will be good to go next year. I was worried it would have been much worse.

    I would expect Chia to hang onto Fayne. He likely signed Demers and Gryba to round out the right handers and then sees if he can swing a deal for a bigger name RH Dman from a position of strength.

  15. Fortinbras says:

    Bohologo:
    Not many Oilers games left, so if you’re wondering who to cheer for into the summer, Michelle Jenneke (pictured above, you may have noticed) had a not unpromising indoor season. She didn’t make it out of the qualifying round in the 60m hurdles at World Indoors last month, but ran a personal best.

    Outdoors, she’ll be in better shape leading up the Olympics: she’ll be looking at an Olympic berth for Australia in the 100m hurldes. The longer distance suits her, she’s more technician than speedster, and we should see her in Rio.

    * Cue Jenneke trade rumors *

  16. npanciroli says:

    Expansion draft really puts a kink on things. Getting a legit 1RHD and 2RHD makes so much sense but then you are immediately exposing a good D. I don’t see any way around it.

  17. vinotintazo says:

    idk why ppl are worried about Potentially loosing 1 player on our 30th place team. It will be ok, we will protect the ones that matter.

  18. npanciroli says:

    vinotintazo:
    idk why ppl are worried about loosing 1 player on our 30th place team. It will be ok, we will protect the ones that matter.

    Yeah, that’s true. I guess it has been so long since we had a proper top 4 D that the thought of getting it and losing one would be painful.

  19. Lowetide says:

    npanciroli:
    Expansion draft really puts a kink on things. Getting a legit 1RHD and 2RHD makes so much sense but then you are immediately exposing a good D. I don’t see any way around it.

    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world there would be an expansion draft.

  20. OilClog says:

    10years of being out of the playoffs has done some damage.

    How much better would Sekera be if partnered with an actual top 4 defender?

    when the Oilers have the forwards that they have.. They absolutely have to aim higher then Mark Fayne at nearly $4mill a year.

    If Fayne was paid as a third pairing guy, I’d have time for him.

  21. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy: If Chia acquires someone like Severson, its for the 2RD spot, not the 1RD spot.

    I’d be ok with a bit more of a swing there than the 1RD spot.

    1 RD needs to be bonafide.

    Severson’s NHL track record during his 119 games (turns 22 this summer) is good enough I’d be comfortable penciling him in at 2RD

    If that’s the play, keeping Fayne as the 3 RD makes more sense. You run:

    Klefbom – New 1RD

    Sekera – Severson

    Davidson – Fayne

    And you flip Severson and Fayne as required/based on play, but given Severson can move the puck better than Fayne does you hope he can handle playing ahead of Fayne.

  22. John Chambers says:

    npanciroli:
    Expansion draft really puts a kink on things. Getting a legit 1RHD and 2RHD makes so much sense but then you are immediately exposing a good D. I don’t see any way around it.

    I agree with you here. If we, for example, add Demers as a UFA and trade Eberle for Vataanen, our D corps next year looks outstanding
    Sek – Demers
    Klef – Vat
    Davy – Nurse
    Reinhart …

    That’s six D men who need protection (only Nurse isn’t exposed). The implication is that one of the D (probably Reinhart) gets exposed, while the OIl only protect Hall, Drai, & Nuge up front.

    Here’s the hack:
    – trade Sekara for a RHD (eg Hamonic), and sign a UFA to a high-dollar 2-year deal … to expire co-term with McD’s ELC.

    Observe:
    Eg. Sek traded along with the #31 pick and $1M retained for Hamonic
    Klef – Hamonic
    Campbell ($7M x 2) – Davidson
    Nurse – Fayne
    Reinhart

    In this scenario only Klef, Hamonic, Davidson, and Reinhart need to be protected. Up front we protect Hall, Nuge, Drai, and Eberle.

  23. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world there would be an expansion draft.

    You keep saying that.

    Do you think that CAR moves to LAS so Gary can have QUE around as his “relocation” hammer?

    What have you heard/read that I haven’t?

  24. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree with this. I went and took a look back on him earlier today. Scouting reports said he improved year over year consistently with the Rockets (a helluva team if you want bonafide dmen) with his offense starting to shine towards the end of his junior career. First two seasons seem to show solid year over year improvement though he’s definitely no screaming hell offensively.

    He’s a cost controlled bet (next year is his last on his ELC so an RFA contract should be able to lock him him for medium term at a very reasonable rate) that has been developed in three very good systems for young defensemen.

    Is Yak an overpay for him? Straight up I think so yes but if a 2nd or 3rd rounder is tossed in maybe not?

    I’d still like Chia to circle back with the Ducks. Seems like there is a bit of smoke still kicking lurking there and I wonder if a larger deal piggybacking on the Maroon trade could be had. I’m a fan of Vatanen but Fowler is also a very solid young dman. Lacks the offensive flair but he’s big, can but a cycle and from what I’ve seen knows how to headman a puck.

    Man it could be a very fun summer

  25. One-Timer says:

    ASkoreyko:

    First McDavid does this brilliant little stick check deflection as the puck is coming to him and Lecavalier and proceeds to spin off of Lecavalier and slowly skates above hashmarks. That play alone shows his genius and then how much players respect his speed by not immediately trying to get on him.

    I’ve been trying to trademark that as the McDavid Turn (in honour of soccer great Cruyff).

  26. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: You keep saying that.

    Do you think that CAR moves to LAS so Gary can have QUE around as his “relocation” hammer?

    What have you heard/read that I haven’t?

    I have decades of research on expansion drafts, back to Baltimore getting their team in 1973.

  27. LMHF#1 says:

    “Some of the actual is with Pittsburgh, but it all adds up to a very poor year. To my eye structure has been better since he left, but that could be bias and I wish him well.”

    It’s been better. Some nights much better. You’re not half-blind LT – you’ve been watching the game for a ton of years. Why undermine yourself here? You know it was the right thing to say.

    All these amateur neuroscientists and “behaviorialists” getting to you? Hope not!

  28. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I think we trade for Hamonic. If we trade for Severson as the offensive but lower in the batting order add then that’s great too (cheaper than Vaatanen).

    I’ve said it before, but a lot of the problems on this D Corps stem from trying to fix this D Corps.

    Having Schultz, Ference, Nikitin,
    Losing Petry (Money was going to those listed above), and maybe even Gilbert (Schultz acquisition) all due to bad moves intended to plug this very hole.

    The only free agent we’ve acquired in a long time that’s worked out has been Sekera, so that means I have some confidence in Chia. Fayne I’ll call net neutral. Hasn’t been bad, hasn’t lived up to expectations. Doesn’t mean I’m not a fan, but he hasn’t lived up to his billing as an elite if unrecognized shutdown man.

    So I’m pretty confident on the free agent front this summer. Why?

    First, because so far Chia has been a better evaluator of free agent D talent than his predecessors.

    Second, because arguably the biggest available fish in the pond is someone on whom we have lots and lots of inside knowledge. If Chia makes a big offer to Demers it will be because his coach gave him the thumbs up. If he doesn’t make a big offer it will be because his coach doesn’t endorse it. Either way that’s probably positive.

  29. Woogie63 says:

    Ducey:

    He did report this morning (in the actual paper Journal – I still enjoy the morning paper) that Davidson has a sprained knee.I am no doctor, but that’s great news as presumably he will be good to go next year.I was worried it would have been much worse.

    I felt the something, JM also provided insight on the Klefbom foot injury, and that strangely made me feel better as well. I hope both players are ready and strong to start the new season, they are a big part of the solution.

  30. slopitch says:

    Im with Woodguy. They need to get the bonified #1 RHD. If they get one guy and its a legit top pairing guy, they will be fine IMO. Getting only a 2RHD leaves them too far behind the competition as they are this year.

    I think Yak can get them a 2nd pairing dman. Will take more to get a top pairing guy.

  31. slopitch says:

    Which I guess raises the question. Would the Oilers be better off with Klefbom, 2RDH, 97, 29, 93 or Klefbom, 1RHD, 2RHD and say 97, 29.

    The answer might actually be the latter… Its not black and white thats for sure.

    Also. Whats up with Davidson? I havent heard how bad he was hurt…

  32. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Yesterday during the intermission of the Panthers/Devils game there was a feature on the Devils Severson.
    A quote from Shero saying he had no idea how amazing he was.
    The coach raving about how much he’s grown this year as a player.
    His teammates raving about how he’s their anchor, and so good, so young, with so much potential to be one of the best Dmen in the league.
    And Severson saying, “when I came into the league I was given no direction from the coaching staff, I didn’t understand what I was doing, or who I was going up against. I was out there playing above my head and it was either sink or swim, so I swam.”

    He’s been given an Oiler entry into the league.
    Shero is stupid.

    Make it so Chiarelli.

  33. Lloyd B. says:

    russ99: I really don’t see a path to the playoffs next year with lesser D acquisitions and hoping someone rises to the top and running three scoring lines. Chia/McLellan are running the team now, not Lowe/MacT.

    It might be possible (thought unlikely) with one group of the defensemen or forwards being solid defensively, but not with neither group being solid defensively.

    Ya My path to the playoffs is not next year but the year after. I wasn’t as clear as I could have been. Next year is a close but no cigar year.

  34. frjohnk says:

    Running a few numbers this morning. Some have been comparing McLellan and Nelson lately. Here are some defensive stats to look at. This is all 5 on 5. ( Nelsons numbers are not with MacT)

    High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60
    Nelson 13.6
    McLellan 12.3

    Shots against from the high danger area/60
    Nelson 9.35
    McLellan 8.37

    Shots against from the medium danger area/60
    Nelson 8.7
    McLellan 8.31

    While goaltending has been a huge arrow this year compared to last year, the jump defensively is also significant. Allowing 1.37 less shots from the “arrow” per game ( 5 on 5) is quite significant. Over a whole season, it means, using league average numbers, about 13 less expected goals against.

  35. One-Timer says:

    Using the 5×5 WOI numbers from LT’s table, here are the %age of scoring chances against /60 that are high-danger:
    Davidson 41.9
    Klefbom 41.2
    Pardy 40.0
    Gryba 47.8
    Sekera 43.3
    Jultz 46.5
    Fayne 41.4
    Nurse 46.4
    Ference 55.5
    Oesterle 44.6
    Reinhart 43.5
    Nikitin 41.2
    Hunt 45.5
    Clendenning 38.0

    Low 40’s seems effective, mid to high 40’s looks tire-fire-ish, and TFCAF is off the charts. Basically if he steps on the ice you’re in serious danger of getting scored on. Pardy and Clen need more sample size, and probably Nikitin too. No secret that Jultz and Nurse have been treading water all year.

    By this measure, Davy, Klef and Fayne are the ones keeping things nice and calm, while we know Sekera is dealing with the toughest comp (“We Work the Black Seam” is his RE song if LT uses Sting).

  36. rickithebear says:

    11-12 season:
    LAK CUP champion D:
    Man – Prime assist RK – HSCA RK
    Voynov – #18 – #42
    Doughty – #34 – #23
    Greene – #110 – #4
    Martinez – #124 – #3
    Scuderi – #164 – #26
    Mitchell #164 – #51

    Primary assists not so high.
    All the D in top 51 for HSCA!

    That break out pass to the expensive Fwd is so very important to winning a cup.

    Rather than preventing goals so 3 lines of even forwards can kick the shit out of the opposition in goal differential.

    I have had it wrong the whole fucking time.

  37. GCW_69 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Yesterday during the intermission of the Panthers/Devils game there was a feature on the Devils Severson.
    A quote from Shero saying he had no idea how amazing he was.
    The coach raving about how much he’s grown this year as a player.
    His teammates raving about how he’s their anchor, and so good, so young, with so much potential to be one of the best Dmen in the league.
    And Severson saying, “when I came into the league I was given no direction from the coaching staff, I didn’t understand what I was doing, or who I was going up against.I was out there playing above my head and it was either sink or swim, so I swam.”

    He’s been given an Oiler entry into the league.
    Shero is stupid.

    Make it so Chiarelli.

    Hynes has been healthy scratching Severson and got into a battle with Severson during training camp. If Severson is available it’s because the coach is an idiot.

    http://fireandice.northjersey.com/fire-ice-1.174987/devils-severson-glad-to-be-back-in-lineup-because-it-s-no-fun-sitting-hynes-shero-on-same-page-1.1516403

  38. Lois Lowe says:

    One-Timer: I’ve been trying to trademark that as the McDavid Turn (in honour of soccer great Cruyff).

    McDavid is the hockey incarnation of Lionel Messi.

  39. McSorley33 says:

    One-Timer,

    Gryba stands out…..

  40. Jordan says:

    Does anyone know if the league will have the same rules in place at the expansion draft as they normally do for player transactions?

    If so, we only need to ensure that our important players are injured again at draft time, and BOOM! No worries about expansion draft.

    Oh, who am I kidding… the Oilers are always healthy, so this would never come up.

    Also, if there’s going to be a maximum of 2 exposed players being taken from each team… why not just build a really great team so you can absorb the losses that an expansion draft will incur? We already know you can’t hide everyone… so why not just make the whole team strong enough to contend in 16/17 and then be even better in 17/18 at the end of the CMD Entry deal?

  41. frjohnk says:

    One-Timer:
    Using the 5×5 WOI numbers from LT’s table, here are the %age of scoring chances against /60 that are high-danger:
    Davidson41.9
    Klefbom41.2
    Pardy40.0
    Gryba47.8
    Sekera43.3
    Jultz46.5
    Fayne41.4
    Nurse46.4
    Ference55.5
    Oesterle44.6
    Reinhart43.5
    Nikitin41.2
    Hunt45.5
    Clendenning38.0

    Low 40’s seems effective, mid to high 40’s looks tire-fire-ish, and TFCAF is off the charts.Basically if he steps on the ice you’re in serious danger of getting scored on.Pardy and Clen need more sample size, and probably Nikitin too.No secret that Jultz and Nurse have been treading water all year.

    By this measure, Davy, Klef and Fayne are the ones keeping things nice and calm, while we know Sekera is dealing with the toughest comp (“We Work the Black Seam” is his RE song if LT uses Sting).

    Id like to see how many of those scoring chances actually turn into shots against for specific players. I can only calculate for teams. The Oilers are the best team percentage wise, in either blocking, deflecting or making the other team miss the net when it comes to high danger scoring chances against.

    Percentage of high danger scoring chances that actually turn into shots against from the high danger area/60 min. This is all 5 on 5.

    EDM68.0%
    CAR 69.2%
    TOR 69.8%
    DAL 69.8%
    OTT 71.4%
    ARI 71.5%
    NYR 71.6%
    WPG71.8%
    WSH71.8%
    S.J 71.9%
    BOS 72.0%
    BUF 72.1%
    VAN 72.4%
    ANA 72.8%
    COL 73.0%
    LGE AVG 73.3%
    MTL 73.4%
    CGY 73.4%
    T.B 73.6%
    L.A 74.0%
    PHI 74.5%
    MIN 74.6%
    N.J 75.2%
    STL 75.3%
    CBJ 75.3%
    NSH 76.0%
    FLA 76.7%
    CHI 76.9%
    PIT 77.1%
    NYI 77.1%
    DET 78.1%

  42. McSorley33 says:

    We are dead last in D offensive production as Bruce M showed….

    So people want to bring back Fayne and Gryba?

    Dead Last in of fence from our D..

    Aim Higher.

    We need 2 RH D ……Period. Full stop.

    Please wreck what we have going here.

  43. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    frjohnk,

    This is very interesting and matches the eye test for me. I have consistently thought that the team has done a better job overall this season of keeping things to the outside and getting in lanes when things break down. There is definitely variance depending upon who is on the ice at a given time but overall I thought the Oilers cycle defense has been a big improvement this year. Your data seems to confirm that.

    I still think there needs to be big strides taken in busting cycles (should come as Davdison, Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart get older, wiser and stronger) and of course the forwards need to do a better job of reading and picking up players on the rush but getting your drone coverage right once possession is established is a pretty big deal.

  44. rickithebear says:

    Oilers D:
    D man – Prime Assist RK – HSCA RK
    Klefbom – #25 – #51
    Pardy – #28 – #93
    Gryba #144 – 8th worst in game
    Sekera – #148 – #151
    Davidson – #184 – #28
    Fayne – #193 – #152
    Didn’t PC trade a player so he could get Gryba.
    Marincin – #96 – #36

    I really got to look at PC’s moves this year.

  45. McSorley33 says:

    I and others have been talking about a complete lack of passes from our D to McDavid in flight in the neutral zone…..

    JM article Edmonton Journal:

    As one pro scout said, “McDavid has to pitch and catch.” You build up speed when you’re approaching the neutral zone, not when you’re standing beside your goalie.

    “You saw that goal Anaheim scored where (Hampus) Lindholm made that quick, great pass up the middle, and before you know it, (Corey) Perry was scoring (2-on-1 with Rickard Rakell),” said an Eastern-based pro scout.

    “Edmonton? They just don’t break it out cleanly.”

    ****************************************************

    A better summary of our D there has not been
    …..
    Bring back Gryba and Fayne?….gotcha.

  46. rickithebear says:

    MacT won the lottery
    and
    Arranged the talbot trade for the 14-15 deadline.

    PC’s moves:
    Drafted Mcdavid compliments of lottery win.
    Traded for Talbot for previously agreed assets acquired by MacT.
    Ana GM stated he need to dump Marron, Knew PC liked and was desperate for Size. so he let him have him.

    ———————— Forest Gump could not have F……….. this up!

    Now the WTF!
    Traded #16 and #33 for Reinhart.
    Traded Marincin a top 40 HSCA D for assets to get the 8th worst Def D in game.
    Traded Gordon for Korpikoski
    Signed Letestu to replace Gordon in FO and Pouliot/lander on PP

    ——————————– The we shall see.
    Traded Scrivens for Kassin
    Clandenning off waivers
    Bracknell off waivers
    Pardy off Waivers

    ————————— the I am happy!
    Signed Sekera

  47. Chachi says:

    rickithebear: I have had it wrong the whole fucking time.

    It’s ok, nobody’s perfect.

  48. highgloveside says:

    I believe we will finally see the bold moves fans have been asking for as PC has no ties to most of the players. He will make every effort to make sweeping changes to start in the new rink

    Players I think have an above average chance not to be returning next season

    – Yak
    – Pouliout
    – one of Eberle or Nuge (will depend on what type of 3C PC is able to find)
    – Davidson
    – Korpikoski
    – Kassian

    I only put Davidson on the list is because there is a good chance the only way PC gets a top pairing D is to include either him or Nurse ans he won’t trade Nurse yet.

    I also think that if PC gets a very good 3C on a good contract both Nuge and Eberle could be traded.

    Not saying I think the above list should all be traded but I think PC is willing to trade any one of them to get the the type of players he wants to get the type of team he envisioned.

  49. frjohnk says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    frjohnk,

    This is very interesting and matches the eye test for me. I have consistently thought that the team has done a better job overall this season of keeping things to the outside and getting in lanes when things break down. There is definitely variance depending upon who is on the ice at a given time but overall I thought the Oilers cycle defense has been a big improvement this year. Your data seems to confirm that.

    I still think there needs to be big strides taken in busting cycles (should come as Davdison, Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart get older, wiser and stronger) and of course the forwards need to do a better job of reading and picking up players on the rush but getting your drone coverage right once possession is established is a pretty big deal.

    Here are some more stats on teams.

    High Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 Min ( 5 on 5)

    NSH 8.4
    N.J 9.5
    FLA 9.7
    ANA 9.8
    L.A 9.8
    S.J 9.9
    PIT 10.2
    WSH10.2
    MIN 10.3
    BUF 10.4
    STL 10.5
    MTL 10.7
    T.B 10.7
    CBJ 10.8
    DET 10.8
    LGE AV10.82
    TOR 10.9
    CHI 11
    ARI 11.1
    OTT 11.1
    BOS 11.2
    WPG11.2
    PHI 11.3
    NYR 11.4
    CAR 11.5
    CGY 11.5
    NYI 11.7
    DAL 12.2
    VAN 12.2
    COL 12.3
    EDM12.3

    Of course EDM is tied for last with Col.

    Shots against from the high danger area/60 min ( 5 on 5)

    NSH 6.38
    S.J 7.12
    ANA 7.13
    N.J 7.14
    L.A 7.25
    WSH7.33
    FLA 7.44
    BUF 7.50
    TOR 7.61
    MIN 7.68
    MTL 7.85
    PIT 7.87
    T.B 7.88
    STL 7.90
    LGE AV7.93
    OTT 7.93
    ARI 7.93
    CAR 7.96
    WPG8.04
    BOS 8.06
    CBJ 8.13
    NYR 8.16
    EDM8.37
    PHI 8.42
    DET 8.43
    CGY 8.44
    CHI 8.46
    DAL 8.52
    VAN 8.83
    COL 8.98
    NYI 9.03

    Some of the players we are hoping to target( Hamonic, Barrie and Demers) and are on teams (NYI 30th, COL 29th, DAL 27th) that give up a lot of dangerous shots per game.

    Other players such as Vatanen, Severson are on teams ( ANA 3rd, NJ 4th) that allow fewer dangerous shots against.

    One player that needs a better look is Justin Faulk. His high danger scoring chance/60 is not great, but his shots against from the high danger area might be near league average.

    This is just a few more stats we could consider when looking at certain Dmen.

  50. Магия 10 says:

    Jordan: why not just build a really great team so you can absorb the losses that an expansion draft will incur?

    the main impact on the players market is that picks and exempt prospects increase in value. same for short term contracts that can be exposed to meet the 25%. also any time you spend assets you have to add in the potential cost of exposing more players.

  51. Pajamah says:

    rickithebear:
    MacT won the lottery
    and
    Arranged the talbot trade for the 14-15 deadline.

    PC’s moves:
    Drafted Mcdavid compliments of lottery win.
    Traded for Talbot for previously agreed assets acquired by MacT.
    Ana GM stated he need to dump Marron, Knew PC liked and was desperate for Size. so he let him have him.

    ———————— Forest Gump could not have F……….. this up!

    Now the WTF!
    Traded #16 and #33 for Reinhart.
    Traded Marincin a top 40 HSCA D for assets to get the 8th worst Def D in game.
    Traded Gordon for Korpikoski
    Signed Letestu to replace Gordon in FO and Pouliot/lander on PP

    ——————————– The we shall see.
    Traded Scrivens for Kassin
    Clandenning off waivers
    Bracknell off waivers
    Pardy off Waivers

    ————————— the I am happy!
    Signed Sekera

    Careful Ricki, your bias is showing.

    Chia pulled the Talbot deal. Sather is a lying jackal, and his “I did it to help a former team out” crap is complete BS. And even if it weren’t, Chia pulled the trigger. Its his deal.

    MacT also didn’t “win the lottery”. He was the captain that piloted the Titanic into an iceberg. Luck had nothing to do with who was in charge.

    You also decide not to give Chia credit for Maroon which is ridiculous. Murray “gave” Chia nothing. It was a negotiation, like all trades are. Chia won it, outright.

    Sure he has made questionable moves (Reinhart, Korps, Letestu), shifting deck chairs (Marincin-Gryba, plus a 4th rounder is a wash when you compare #7 D men) and winning some (Sekera)

    You want to blame him for his failures, and not credit him for his wins. It makes you look petty.

  52. Water Fire says:

    It would hurt a lot less to lose a signed player in the draft. Losing a player traded for also means the loss of the assets used.

    I suppose the mitigating factor is Edmonton’s D has been so bad the team would be probably be looking at their forwards.

  53. Ducey says:

    McSorley33:
    I and others have been talking about a complete lack of passes from our D to McDavid in flight in the neutral zone…..

    JM article Edmonton Journal:

    As one pro scout said, “McDavid has to pitch and catch.” You build up speed when you’re approaching the neutral zone, not when you’re standing beside your goalie.

    “You saw that goal Anaheim scored where (Hampus) Lindholm made that quick, great pass up the middle, and before you know it, (Corey) Perry was scoring (2-on-1 with Rickard Rakell),” said an Eastern-based pro scout.

    “Edmonton? They just don’t break it out cleanly.”

    ****************************************************

    A better summary of our D there has not been
    …..
    Bring back Gryba and Fayne?….gotcha.

    The Oilers will bring back Klefbom and have Davidson/ Nurse continuing the develop. That’s Sekera, Davidson, new guy and Klefbom who should all be good puck movers.

    Gryba will be the #7 guy in the press box so that Nurse, Reinhart and Oeterle are on the farm.

    Chia can only do what is reasonable.

    Trading Eberle to increase offense seems obviously counterproductive to me.

  54. cc says:

    Over the past 3 seasons Severson averaged .71 Pts/60 and the Devils score only 1.76 Goals/60. League average Goals/60 is 2.20 over the past 3 seasons. If you normalized his Pts/60 on an average team he would be roughly .89 Pts/60.

    If the Oiler’s could acquire Severson &Hamonic and Klefbom &Davidson return and remains healthy. I think there defense would be strong enough to compete for a playoff spot.

    I think I’d also be inclined to pair Severson with Klefbom (if healthy).

    When Klef played with Fayne (in 390 minutes) his GF% was 25.8 and his CF% was 46.4.
    When Klef played with Schultz (887 minutes) his GF% was 46.2 and his CF% was 51.8.
    All other d partners with less than 110 minutes of ice-time;
    Klef’s CF% with Petry was 52.8, with Sekera 50, with Davidson 49.2, with Gryba 49.1, with Ference 43.8, with Marincin 41.7, with Nurse 37.5

    I think he’s better paired with a puck mover. There’s mixed reviews on Severson’s skating (he’s no Jultz) but he’s good offensively and he has a nice shot from the point.

    If you could get those two d-man I’d run;
    Davidson-Hamonic
    Klef-Severson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse ***

  55. commonfan14 says:

    ASkoreyko: I went back and watched that sequence again.
    First McDavid does this brilliant little stick check deflection as the puck is coming to him and Lecavalier and proceeds to spin off of Lecavalier and slowly skates above hashmarks. That play alone shows his genius and then how much players respect his speed by not immediately trying to get on him.
    Then you can see McDavid start counting the Oilers in the zone and he clearly sees that Maroon is not in his field of vision. McDavid knowing Maroon now as a player assumes rightly that he is in the process of taking his giant frame to the front of net and delivers a perfect pass to exactly the right spot.

    Maroon’s reaction after the goal is great too.

    Very much an “I can’t f–king believe I get to play with a kid who can do that!” kind of explosion that should play very well with potential FAs.

    Wonder if Stamkos noticed…

  56. Quinlan says:

    Lowetide: The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world there would be an expansion draft.

    Completely agree.

    We still don’t know what the rules will be. There’s been a ton of speculation but very little that’s concrete. Who knows, maybe the bidders get cold feet and want to wait for the economy to settle before forking over $500 million.

    You keep building as before, making moves that help the team.

    Ironically, the best protection the Oil might have is their history of poor play. Not much demand for Oilers, as McLellan has noted before. Expect players from winning teams to be over-valued because of grit, and sacrifice, and he’s been there before.

    Believe it or not, we live in a hockey world that puts extreme value on players like Kyle Clifford, Dave Bolland, Chris Kelly, et al because “these are guys you can win with.”

    Unless of course, the expansion team lures someone like Kyle Dubas away. Then we’re screwed.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I have decades of research on expansion drafts, back to Baltimore getting their team in 1973.

    Ok.

    So what indicators have you believe it isn’t happening this time?

    I’m very interested in this.

  58. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Ok.

    So what indicators have you believe it isn’t happening this time?

    I’m very interested in this.

    I can’t see any way they don’t go to Vegas.

    The arena is already built and running. They have a metropolitan population of over 2 million and 42 million visitors a year who are going there to be entertained. A lot of those visitors are hockey fans. And the ownership group already passed the NHL examination and the season ticket drive.

    Players will love it. Casinos will love it. Heck, fans of other teams will love it.

    The NFL is seriously looking at it too. You can bet Bobblehead Bettman wants to get there first.

    And the kicker, $500 million divided by 30.

  59. Pajamah says:

    Ducey: I can’t see any way they don’t go to Vegas.

    The arena is already built and running.They have a metropolitan population of over 2 million and 42 million visitors a year who are going there to be entertained. A lot of those visitors are hockey fans.And the ownership group already passed the NHL examination and the season ticket drive.

    Players will love it. Casinos will love it. Heck, fans of other teams will love it.

    The NFL is seriously looking at it too.You can bet Bobblehead Bettman wants to get there first.

    And the kicker, $500 million divided by 30.

    Not to mention, they can build around elite superstar, Evander Kane.

    **I’ve just been made aware “elite superstar” and “gambling addict” are not interchangeable. Editor regrets the error.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I have decades of research on expansion drafts, back to Baltimore getting their team in 1973.

    So I looked up Baltimore hockey 1973 and didn’t find anything about a NHL team.

    Were they promised one?

    I did see that before the 72/73 season the NHL “hastily” expanded to Long Island and Atlanta in order to occupy the new rinks that were being built before the WHA could get there.

    I also found interesting stuff on the Baltimore Clippers AHL team:

    The Clippers withdrew from the AHL at mid-season during 1974–1975 when the short-lived competing World Hockey Association’s Michigan Stags were relocated to Baltimore as the “Baltimore Blades”, playing on a major league level versus the NHL. The Blades used the Clippers old uniforms, the only difference being a Blades logo replacing the Clippers logo on the home white jerseys.

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Clippers

    So the WHA briefly expanded into Baltimore in 74/75 as well.

    So was Baltimore supposed to get a NHL team in 73/74 but got the shaft?

  61. sumaclab says:

    Demers.Money and term. Hamonic.Hall.Not.RNH.Not. Vatanen.Draft picks/prospects.Which would I choose. Vatanen. Puck mover.PP.
    I don’t move my core players to get a Pieterangelo or a Shattenkirk. The theory I abide with is that your 7 demen should be able to defend. You pair your demen.One is your 6’4 230 guy. One is your 6’1 to 6’2 185/200 pnd guy who can skate and pass.Complimentary players.You need your Nurse to be with your Osterle. Vatenen with Davidson.Sekera with Klefbom.

  62. CockyHockey says:

    McDavid voted rookie of the month for March. 3 out of 3 months that he’s played. He’s the unprecedented Calder winner this year. **sorry comment not related to post, just got excited when I noticed on TSN.

  63. RexLibris says:

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  64. LostBoy says:

    Here are cumulative points from defense, right at this moment:

    NAS 194
    CAL 189
    SJS 174
    DAL 167
    LAK 167
    MON 164
    CHI 158
    PIT 157
    NYR 156
    WAS 146
    MIN 144
    OTT 144
    BOS 142
    ANA 141
    COL 140
    STL 139
    ARI 138
    NYI 137
    CAR 135
    TBL 131
    DET 129
    PHI 129
    TOR 129
    BUF 128
    WIN 121
    FLA 114
    CBJ 108
    VAN 107
    NJD 99
    EDM 99

    Jason Demers would help, but he would not help much with the above. League average scoring from D is 141 points. Only two playoff teams are in the bottom third of the league in this metric (and one of them is Philadelphia, dueling right at the cut line).

    No team in the league produces less offense from the D than us. If this isn’t fixed, we would need to vastly buck the odds to make the playoffs next year. Scoring from the D isn’t a guarantee (look at CAL), but utter lack of it kills you dead (of the bottom 14 teams in defense production, only 5 are in playoff position, and two of these are at the cutline battling for wildcard spots).

    It seems like any plan for the summer and next year which offers a reasonable shot at the playoffs, as opposed to having to strikingly buck the odds, has to explain where the missing offense is going to come from. We’re operating at 70% of league average.

    It’s not just that we suck at offense. If you look at D scoring in proportion to GF, we are still DFL in the league. No other team in the league gets as small a contribution from the D towards its total goals scored than Edmonton.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: So I looked up Baltimore hockey 1973 and didn’t find anything about a NHL team.

    Were they promised one?

    Sorry about the WG, my quick note wasn’t helpful and it is clear you are interested. So, here goes. In looking through expansion history, the lead articles on expansion are often followed by a year (or more) or teases that may involve cities that are hopeful. An example would be Baltimore, Maryland. In 1966 Baltimore looked very good for expansion as part of the six 1967 teams, as indicated here
    https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1298&dat=19651013&id=XvlNAAAAIBAJ&sjid=bosDAAAAIBAJ&pg=5189,1153146&hl=en

    As it turned out, five franchises were awarded outright, with one getting conditional approval. The reason St. Louis was rewarded a team? Blackhawks owner owned the arena in St. Louis and wanted to make a lot of money from an old building.

    https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1979&dat=19660209&id=2pUiAAAAIBAJ&sjid=1qkFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1480,2956260&hl=en

    The NHL passed over Baltimore again in 1970, and as you mention, the 1972 expansion was moslty about screwing over the new league. In 1974, Baltimore finally got their team, about one decade after it was clearly a frontrunner.

    I use that as an example, and would caution everyone against reading too much into the currently understood rules of expansion, or even the assumed locations (Quebec and Las Vegas). You can find Seattle as a rumor as early as 1977 (iirc) and the 1967 expansion rules changed time and again—even to the point where the six new teams were not allowed to sign professional free agents (this came after Pittsburgh signed Les Binkley and a defenseman I can’t remember).

  66. vinotintazo says:

    RexLibris,

    gold. lol

  67. LostBoy says:

    To follow up, league average ratio of points from defense to goals scored is .67. (That is, disregarding absolute team offense, and just looking at how much the D drives it).

    We are dead last, at .51.

  68. Truth says:

    Hockey games in Vegas will be interesting. Players always talk about struggling to play in mile high city due to the elevation. I wonder if Vegas gets similar coverage on the broadcast. “You could really see the team power out in the third. Must have been the 2 for 1 special at the Rhino last night.”

  69. Chachi says:

    RexLibris,

    Even as a lark I would need to take a “Silkwood” style shower after writing those words. You are a brave person.

  70. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    LostBoy,

    This is excellent work! And yet another reason why I’m not exactly enamoured with folks who have been chasing Hamonic as the salve to heal our defensive woes. The Oilers prospect cupboard is stocked with guys that play the same type of game as Hamonic, shut down, cycle buster that can move the puck forward but who doesn’t chip in huge amounts of offense. We can debate fancy stats until the moon comes up but Nurse, Reinhart and probably Davidson fit the Hamonic style player type. Why chase a man that you have in abundance? (Note this is not to say that any of said prospects are at Hamonic’s level right meow just that they are similar style players).

    The lack of a point shot is absolutely debilitating. It limits the available options on the PP, allows the PK team to cheat and pressure the forwards and forces the PP forwards to attempt “high risk” passes. We need to find that point shot somewhere. Is Vatanen the answer?

  71. RexLibris says:

    Chachi,

    Thanks. I’d been kicking around the idea the last few years and finally got around to doing it this spring.

    There isn’t much there that isn’t strictly true, which, if you can stomach gallows humour, makes it all the more funny, I suppose.

  72. RexLibris says:

    vinotintazo:
    RexLibris,

    gold. lol

    Thanks, my personal favourite was finding all three facepalms and the gif at the end that brought it all together. Perfect laugh, I thought.

  73. Chachi says:

    RexLibris,

    Yup, the truth behind everything is what makes it so effective.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Truth:
    Hockey games in Vegas will be interesting.Players always talk about struggling to play in mile high city due to the elevation.I wonder if Vegas gets similar coverage on the broadcast.“You could really see the team power out in the third.Must have been the 2 for 1 special at the Rhino last night.”

    Except for instead of elevation handicap they are short of breath from partying all night. Games will start at 9 at night when people are finally up.

  75. G Money says:

    LostBoy,

    This is correct.

    I’ve said it a billion times, I’ll say it for the billion and oneth: fix the goddamn defense.

    So much breath on how lousy our forwards are, and every molecule of it is wasted. Likely some of the golden boys will be heading out to address the D – but that’s a “deal” issue, not a “fix the forwards” issue.

    We have NO IDEA how good these forwards could be with an Actual NHL Defense(tm) behind them. Not one – not a single lonely one – has had that luxury.

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Without question, a puck mover/PP cannon would be a huge benefit. Vatanen would be an ideal fit.

    I take issue with the idea that a Hamonic won’t help though.

    First is that a more effective defense means less time spent defending – which generally leads to more scoring. He’d instantly be the top pairing RD on this team – which means he’d replace Mark Fayne.

    No way that doesn’t have a positive impact on the scoring.

    As to the other side of the coin, which is the extent to which a guy like Hamonic would actually help the team by actually scoring …

    Hamonic gets loaded to the gills with EV and PK time on the NYI, because that’s what they need him for. So his point totals take a hit because he spends little on the PP.

    That said, his P/60 at 5v5 over the last three years is 0.78. That’s ahead of Matt Niskanen, tied with Brent Seabrook, and just a hair behind Shattenkirk (who is at 0.81).

    Not exactly bad company among offensive defensemen.

    On this team, chockablock with defensive defenders, I suspect Hamonic would get more of that cherry PP time, and his point totals would jump accordingly – especially being An Actual NHL Defenseman(tm) with *this* forward corps.

    My ideal – been saying this since news of Hamonic’s trade request came to light – is that we get both Hamonic and Vatanen (who most seem to expect will be a cap-purge victim in Anaheim).

    Demers would be a terrific Hamonic substitute per WGs work.

    Barrie would be a solid replacement for Vatanen.

    If we get both, I will, for the first time in uncountably many years, predict playoffs for this team. In fact, for many opponents, I think the Oilers will jump from a team that gets pushed around to one that does the bullying.

    But don’t sell short the impact that *just* adding Hamonic would have. By playing the top pairing RD role competently and pushing the entire D roster on the right hand side down one notch, he makes the entire D better, and at both ends of the ice.

  76. LP says:

    RE the Quebec expansion talk, there are a lot of rumors going around in Twitter en français.

    Yesterday and the day before, (not April 1st) there were reports of some radio host (Vincent Cauchon) mentioning some sources in ONT and QC – basically saying that Carolina could be moved to Quebec.

    Here is a report from Le Soleil on Québécor refusing to comment on said rumors….

    [FRENCH] http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/sports/hockey/201603/31/01-4966234-quebecor-refuse-de-commenter-les-rumeurs-de-demenagement-des-hurricanes.php

    Personally, I would be surprised to see this happen this year, but I also think that at some point, if there’s a lot of smoke there has to be a fire somewhere.

    Question is,, could this really happen? Is Carolina really doing that bad?

  77. LP says:

    Also, interesting to see that Bettman denied reports of the Thrashers moving to Winnipeg… less than 2 weeks before the NHL announced the Thrashers were moving to Winnipeg.

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/bettman-denies-report-thrashers-moving-to-winnipeg-1.646228

    Interesting times…

  78. rickithebear says:

    Pajamah: Careful Ricki, your bias is showing.

    Chia pulled the Talbot deal. Sather is a lying jackal, and his “I did it to help a former team out” crap is complete BS. And even if it weren’t, Chia pulled the trigger. Its his deal.

    MacT also didn’t “win the lottery”. He was the captain that piloted the Titanic into an iceberg. Luck had nothing to do with who was in charge.

    You also decide not to give Chia credit for Maroon which is ridiculous. Murray “gave” Chia nothing. It was a negotiation, like all trades are. Chia won it, outright.

    Sure he has made questionable moves (Reinhart, Korps, Letestu), shifting deck chairs (Marincin-Gryba, plus a 4th rounder is a wash when you compare #7 D men) and winning some (Sekera)

    You want to blame him for his failures, and not credit him for his wins. It makes you look petty.

    So the bitch that breaks the champagne bottle on the boat, built the ships!
    Cause they pull the switch.
    Got you!

    The shit you are spouting.
    I might believe you if it was’t for key evidence:
    PC not with team when we won the lottery and spostnet brought out Mcdavid,
    Not Eichel.
    The whole fucking hockey world knew we won Mcdavid.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zR2DC09cSo

    The Hemsky and Petry pick acquired at last 2 Ddadline by Mact being the assets Sather stated.
    And the oilers provided.
    Sather is going to tell the hockey world he did a favour to the oilers cause of a season before deadline commitment to a man that was still in the oil org. hinting it would not of happened if he was gone. knowing it would piss off NYR ranger fans.

    Murray is going to lie about Choosing to offer Maroon to PC.

    Bias!
    The evidence lines up in all three saying it is the truth.

    But Sather the lying Jackal is the kind of supporting evidence yo provide!

    What fuels your brain!

  79. Lowetide says:

    I think maybe we are over the line, folks. Please cut back on the personal comments. Thanks.

  80. LostBoy says:

    G Money:
    But don’t sell short the impact that *just* adding Hamonic would have.By playing the top pairing RD role competently and pushing the entire D roster on the right hand side down one notch, he makes the entire D better, and at both ends of the ice.

    Well, I agree, and the addition of Hamonic+Vatanen would have me doing handstands.

    Hamonic in and of himself would absolutely help (Demers less so, offensively).

    But I guess I would point out that the hole is awfully, awfully deep.

    To put it another way:

    The Oilers aren’t a good offensive team, but they’re not risible. They score this season at about 93% league average.

    Their contribution from D to that scoring is about 76% of league average. That’s…impressive (there is only one decent team even close, FLA who are only a bit ahead – but they are the screaming outlier in this, the only team in both the top ten of league standings and bottom ten of D scoring).

    My bet is Hamonic goes to WIN and DAL re-signs Demers.

    I’ve said it before and I agree with the poster above that we actually have potential “Hamonics” well along in development in the organization and on the team, if not RH ones (and with no guarantees). We don’t have ANY “Vatanens”. Like, what even counts as an offensive D prospect in our pro system, Laleggia and Oesterle?

  81. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    G Money,

    Ahhh see I wasn’t aware of Hamonic’s strength at pts/60 at 5v5 and yes that definitely makes a difference in my analysis of the player for sure. I suppose given the amount of minutes that Nurse has seen on the PK this year along with Davidson and GR there is the potential that by adding Hamonic to the mix there is “competition” among the blue for those PP minutes. It would be nice to have a set of dmen that one could rotate through the PK rather than having it foisted upon them due to lack of balance.

    See in the ends of another absolutely horrible season these sorts of musing are a lot of fun. I dare to dream (unlike Rex apparently) that things could turn around in a quick way this summer of some dice fall properly. The news about Davidson seeming to only have a sprained knee is great if it’s true. Hopefully Klefbom and the medical folks can figure out his bum foot and get things back on course over the next while. It would be some kind of kick in the nuts if something like derailed the poor guy.

  82. G Money says:

    Lowetide:
    I think maybe we are over the line, folks. Please cut back on the personal comments. Thanks.

    Why do you hate … um … haters so much!?

  83. JDï™ says:

    RexLibris,

    About half way through your SPAMALERT:

    http://i.imgur.com/Ufbr5ej.gifv

  84. season not played says:

    Lowetide: The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world there would be an expansion draft.

    Good one LT.

    I don’t agree with you often but this is pretty funny.

    Speculating about who will need to be protected, who to acquire etc when expansion teams haven’t been awarded yet seems a little premature.

    To each their own though. That’s what makes the Oilers such a good hobby.

  85. G Money says:

    LostBoy: we actually have potential “Hamonics” well along in development in the organization and on the team, if not RH ones

    Don’t underemphasize the importance of the RHD part, or you’ll enrage WG!

    A while back I finally got around to publishing “WOWY” data for my DangerousFenwick, which I published in CSV format (which makes it far easier to do analysis than trying to copy it off a web table!).

    WheatNOil jumped in and tested WG’s assertions, looking at a bunch of left-left vs left-right vs right-right comparisons, across a number of teams, not just the Oilers. To everyone’s surprise BUT WG’s, he found that defensemen playing off hand were noticeably less effective.

    Shortly after that, the guys at hockeygraphs did a more formal statistical study and concluded that in order for an off hand defenseman to match the effectiveness of an on-hand defensemen, they would need to be 6% better Corsi-wise.

    6% is the difference between top-end and mid-way, or mid-way and bottom of league at the team level.

    Stylistic considerations aside, the Oilers have no D in the pipeline who likely project as better than Hamonic to begin with, and no-one at all who does so on the RD.

    So it’s a huge gap that Hamonic fills, not a small one.

  86. Pajamah says:

    rickithebear,

    The assets are decided at the time of the deal. Sure MacT might have offered the same, but it was Chia who didn’t give up more than he had to, to acquire Talbot.

    If you take Sathers word for the truth, all the power to you, but no GM ever, has made a deal specifically “just to help a buddy out”

    As for McDavid, if you think anything but luck put him in copper and blue, you’re off your rocker. Nothing either man did, unless you want to lay blame (not credit) at MacT’s feet.

    And as I said, no GM just decides to lose a trade. The Maroon deal made sense to both Murray and Chiarelli. You cant deny credit when you’re so eagerly laying blame. Who cares who offered whom? Chiarelli found someone he wanted and got him.

    Chiarelli’s entire time with the Oilers is mixed, I’ll agree on the bad pick ups (Gryba, Test Tube, Korps), but I’m certainly not penalizing the guy for good moves (Sekera, Maroon, Talbot)

    As LT stated, I’m going to keep this from getting personal, and I’ve made it obvious here many times what I think about a fair majority of your opinions. However, I reiterate.

    You cant lay blame on one hand, and deny credit on the other. MacT didn’t trade for Talbot, Chia did (and Sather had no reason to help Chia, yet still negotiated with him in regards to Talbot). Murray traded Maroon the same as Chia acquired him. There is no difference.

  87. frjohnk says:

    LostBoy,

    Good stuff.

    I took your points by defense and then took a look at what teams are giving up in terms of shots from the “arrow”, which is shots from the medium and high danger areas. This is a measurement I have used in the past when determining “team defense”. Not perfect, but it can give us more insight on how teams compare when defending shots against.

    Shots allowed from the medium and high danger areas per 60 min. ( League wide, 55% of all shots are from this area, but 85% of all goals scored are from this area)

    NSH 13.6
    ANA 14.0
    FLA 14.4
    N.J 14.4
    S.J 14.5
    MIN 14.5
    L.A 14.6
    WSH14.7
    T.B 15.0
    BUF 15.2
    STL 15.4
    CAR 15.5
    MTL 15.6
    PIT 15.7
    DAL 15.8
    CHI 15.8
    NYR 15.9
    DET 16.0
    CGY 16.0
    WPG16.1
    CBJ 16.2
    ARI 16.3
    BOS 16.4
    PHI 16.6
    TOR 16.6
    EDM16.7
    OTT 16.9
    NYI 17.5
    COL 18.1
    VAN 18.2

    Now if we give equal weighting to points from the D ( offense from D) and arrow shots allowed by the D ( defense by the D), this is the ranking I got for team defenseman from best to worst.

    NSH
    SJS
    LA
    ANA
    MIN
    Dal
    MTL
    CGY
    PIT
    CHI
    NYR
    STL
    FLA
    TB
    WAS
    CAR
    WIN
    BUF
    NJD
    BOS
    ARI
    DET
    Ott
    COL
    NYI
    PHI
    CBJ
    TOR
    EDM
    VAN

    Couple of notes

    -Nashville has the best D and its not even close. They ranked number 1 in both metrics.

    -A bunch of teams have really good offense from the backend, but are not that great in their own end. Dallas, Calgary

    -Other teams have really good defense, but lack offense. New Jersey, Florida

    -Some teams show really well offensively and defensively from the backend. Nashville, LA, San Jose

    -And of course, there are teams that are porous defensively and not good offensively. Edmonton, Vancouver

  88. OilClog says:

    Gryba wasn’t a bad addition at all.

    He hasn’t not lived up to his standard of play.

    Having him healthy kept the Oilers from having to ice both Reinhart and Nurse to begin the season.

    The guy hasn’t been a bad addition, can’t Klump him win Korp.

    Letestu would be sweet at half the price, imagine some team will land him at half price.

  89. NF Oiler says:

    I understand signing a free agent to not give up any assets , but if Jason demers is in our top pairing then we still do not have a playoff caliber D. As much as I would hate seeing hall, ebs, or nuge leaving, if you can get a legitimate top pairing d for any of them then Pete has to pull the trigger…one or even two will have to be traded in the next 2-3 years anyway to make way for for the Mcdavid/Draisaitl contacts…I also do not understand your obsession with Fayne, I think he has to go. I have never seen a softer 6’3 dman (well maybe Tom poti and Tom Gilbert but at least those guys provided offence). Not saying he has to fight but he has to learn to be difficult to play against . Just once I would like to push someone away from his goalie or throw a hard body check. He also can’t skate. Other then being a veteran I think he brings very little to the team and has to go but I really doubt any other team would want him unless McT gets a GM job somewhere else lol

  90. flyfish1168 says:

    RexLibris:
    SPAM ALERT!

    Rex Codex Libris ‏@CodexRex 5m5 minutes ago

    Perhaps these losing seasons have gotten to me. Perhaps I just can’t take it any longer. Perhaps… http://flamesnation.ca/2016/4/1/the-man-who-cried-uncle

    END SPAM!

    Thank you, good night and good luck.

    Good one Rex. I live in cow town and have many phlegm fans friends but they will never be able to get the love of the Oil out of me. i may bitch and complain but we still have more cups and been in the league shorter time then them. We have a great history and what do they have, I can’t say they have any great players in the HHF wearing a phlegm jersey.

  91. Lois Lowe says:

    Not to nitpick, Rex, but the Oilers drafted:

    Hall 1OV
    Nuge 1OV
    Yak 1OV
    Nurse 7OV
    Drai 3OV
    Messi 1OV

    Even if the Oilers get 1OV again, it would be 5 in 7 years.

  92. sliderule says:

    The oilers should e mail all the NHL players spouses showing golfers playing in shirt sleeves on Apil 1 in Edmonton.

    This is while there is a big snowstorm in Midwest and tornado warnings in south.

    The only way to counter bad perceptions is with good publicity.

  93. fifthcartel says:

    I’m listening to the Oilers Now podcast, and I know Bob isn’t 100% in the know but one interesting note is he says “he’s going to put this to bed right now” and said he’d be stunned if Shattenkirk ended up in the west, even the Pacific, said he shares an agent with an Oiler who signed a multi-year extension in the last calendar year (Talbot? Klefbom?) and says he’s going to end up on the East coast, mentioned Boston as a likely place.

    I mean, Stauffer did say he didn’t think the Oilers would go after Sekera/Franson/Green, but he sounded a lot more sure of this than he did many other things.

    I think Shattenkirk’s really good but the cost of getting him + extension is a little scary.

  94. Ducey says:

    Well Yak is good at something.

    He has his second citation for diving.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kadri-yakupov-hanzal-fined-divingembellishment/

  95. commonfan14 says:

    So there’s this…

    Somehow, the on-ice officials never got the replay that showed the slew-foot, even though those of us at home saw it many times.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/west-coast-bias-remembering-rexall-place/

  96. square_wheels says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I had to read this 3x, then it clicked – Lionel is a great comparison to CMD.

    A bit punchy I am.

  97. MrEd says:

    Has anyone been able to isolate the “Yak diving” incident?

  98. MrEd says:

    Ducey,

    Doesn’t look like Khadri dove here. 2G for reputation.

  99. MrEd says:

    I’ve been a hurdling fan for a while now.

  100. Little Poteet says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I endorse this comparison, the speed at which they handle the ball /puck is tremendous

  101. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Little Poteet: LostBo

    I made this same comp (McDavid & Messi) in a conversation with a soccer-loving friend recently. I think it’s reasonably solid. Both of them are frigging magic.

  102. NHL Rumors: Oilers Still Need To A Puck-Moving Dman | Hockey Insider | NHL News, Drafts, Picks, Schedules & NHL Betting Online says:

    […] Lowetide: Think that the Oilers will look to trade the likes of  Benoit Pouliot, Mark Fayne, and Nail Yakupov instead of one of their $6 million players. This also would mean that the return would be less. Think that one of Jason Demers or Travis Hamonic will be with the Oilers next year. […]

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