THE 2016-17 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

The Edmonton Oilers are one of the teams mentioned as being a player in the Alex Lyon sweepstakes. The Yale goalie is a legit prospect and is being pursued by several NHL teams. For Edmonton, part of this summer has to be dedicated to signing pro players for the AHL team—either to NHL or AHL contracts. Last spring, I projected the Condors first club and suggested it could be a grand group—because Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl projected to stay there most of the year. Alas, the Oilers had neither balance nor depth at the NHL level and the minor league team cratered under the pressure.

Here are the Condors who played in the NHL this season, and their Oilers numbers:

  • C Leon Draisaitl 70gp, 18-32-50
  • R Iiro Pakarinen 61gp, 5-6-11
  • D Darnell Nurse 67gp, 2-7-9
  • D Jordan Oesterle 15gp, 0-5-5
  • L Jujhar Khaira 15gp, 0-2-2
  • L Luke Gazdic 29gp, 1-0-1
  • D Griffin Reinhart 27gp, 0-1-1
  • R Rob Klinkhammer 14gp, 1-0-1
  • R Anton Slepyshev 11gp, 0-1-1
  • D Nikita Nikitin 11gp, 0-1-1
  • D Brad Hunt 7gp, 0-0-0
  • C Andrew Miller 6gp, 0-0-0
  • G Laurent Brossoit 5gp, 3.61 .873

From that group, several could be in the NHL to stay—I think Draisaitl, Pakarinen and Nurse are likely to be on the opening night roster. Callups next season (or winning a job outright) could be Laurent Brossoit, Griffin Reinhart, Jujhar Khaira and Anton Slepyshev (from this list). I also think the Oilers value Bogdan Yakimov and he could be in the picture beginning in the fall.

musil ferguson five

DAVID MUSIL

I have been trying to project David Musil onto next year’s Oilers roster, and he could get there—in the same way Brandon Davidson got there in the fall of 2015. The defensive depth chart in Edmonton will be a fluid situation, and it is impossible to tell the future. That said, for our purposes today, I am going to assume Musil is either in the NHL as the No. 8 (or better) defender, or he has moved on to another NHL opportunity.

PROJECTING THE 2016-17 CONDORS

  1. G Laurent Brossoit. Projects as NHL backup/AHL starter, signed a two-year deal.
  2. G Eetu Laurikainen, AHL backup, he is signed for next year.
  3. D Darnell Nurse, probably top 6D next season, ideally in Bakersfield.
  4. D Griffin Reinhart, may spend another year in the minors. Could be dealt.
  5. D Jordan Oesterle, AHL D, NHL time. RFA. Suspect he signs.
  6. D Joey Laleggia, AHL D matriculating.
  7. D Dillon Simpson, AHL D, matriculating.
  8. D Ben Betker, AHL D, matriculating.
  9. C Jujhar Khaira, Has a chance to be in the NHL next season.
  10. C Bogdan Yakimov, Has NHL tools, speed concern.
  11. C Kyle Platzer, AHL C matriculating.
  12. L Jere Sallinen, you can never have too many Finns.
  13. L Mitch Moroz, AHL winger/enforcer, matriculating.
  14. L Braden Christoffer, rugged winger, matriculating.
  15. R Anton Slepyshev, talented winger should push for NHL time.
  16. R Greg Chase, minor league winger, matriculating.

This is a very poor AHL roster. The forwards (save Sallinen) have not delivered offensively and the defensemen are solid to good—if they remain in the AHL, and as we saw this past season there is no guarantee. Men like Tyler Pitlick and Kale Kessy are RFA, and could be added, but in some cases it might be time to see what is down the road.

winquist williams

Josh Winquist. Photo by Mark Williams

Edmonton has some interesting AHL contracts (including a recent one) and we might see the team add some of the following names to an NHL or AHL deal:

  • L Josh Winquist 33gp, 8-21-29. Two years on an AHL deal, he has earned the NHL edition.
  • C-R Josh Currie 47gp, 6-8-14. He won playing time over a lot of NHL contracts.
  • C Marco Roy 36gp, 6-5-11. Former-round pick came in handy at times.
  • C Alexis Loiseau 12gp, 1-2-3. I thought he would play more for the Condors.
  • F Kellen Jones 12gp, 1-2-3. He is a PK wizard, there has to be a twist.
  • D Nick Pageau 21gp, 0-3-3. One of the few RH defenders at the pro level.
  • L Joey Benik 1gp, 0-0-0. College man made pro debut on the weekend.
  • G Ty Rimmer 4gp, 4.35 .850. Oft-forgotten, he has been in pro hockey for three years.

GIVING AT-BATS TO OLD PEOPLE

The 2014 draft is going to give Peter Chiarelli nothing in terms of grads who can help the minor league team. This past season, the Oilers ran with several AHL veterans in feature roles:

  • R Matt Ford will lead the team in points.
  • L Ryan Hamilton is the only other player on the team (aside from Ford) with 20 goals.
  • D Brad Hunt is surely blocking men like Oesterle and Laleggia should he return.
  • C Andrew Miller is probably down the line (playing for Charlotte now).
  • C Phil McRae had some injury issues.
  • C Zach Boychuk came over in the Miller loan, anyone’s guess where he is with the organization.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

We will probably hear about Alex Lyon in the next 24 hours or so, but for me Peter Chiarelli has to be extremely active this spring and summer. Along with the NHL team, the minor league team is in bad repair. Part of that comes from drafting, but a lot of it—in my opinion—comes from too many at-bats loaned out to AHL veterans. The skilled Condors were mostly those vets, and for me that speaks to extremely poor development. Hey, maybe I am wrong about this, but when I look at the top of the division and the Texas Stars, there are a couple of older gents and several miles of prospects.

This is a massive deal, and the Oilers are losing ground daily. As other organizations sign their 2014 draft picks, Edmonton can only bid on CHL, college and Euro free agents and hope they land a few. After that? Back to the well that houses AHL veterans, and another winter of employing those men. It is a vicious cycle and contributes to the lack of development.

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94 Responses to "THE 2016-17 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS"

  1. Loyal2theoil says:

    Sorry for going off topic,

    I think an Evander Kane type of trade is in order.

    Kane, Bogosian for Myers, Stafford, Joel Armia, Brendan Lemiuex and a 1st (latest one BUF had in 2015)

    That’s the type of trade needed to shake this up.

    I believe Eberle would play the role of Kane in this situation( Hall could, but you would need a significant #1D coming back).

    Deal a player like Eberle and a decent defender from a position of depth (in our case, LHD) for a RHD like Myers

    I posted this in another group, would this be a good template for a trade?

  2. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nicholson-make-changes-disappointed-fans/?row=3&row_id=1617477

    Did anyone catch this?

    Cassie Campbell (on McDavid): “So, how about that next contract?”

    Bob Nicholson (laughs): “Whatever he wants.”

    Oh dear.

  3. stener says:

    Is there anything this organization can do with competence? What a bleak outlook.

    Purge the org of MacT, Howson and whoever they’ve listened to. Trade the pick, should it be outside the top 2. Use it to acquire a d-man, and picks in the first few rounds or prospects with a pulse. Add the parts you need to make it work (i.e. not McD, Hall or Drai). Build depth up the middle. Try to sign Demers. Make a trade with Benning, he’s smoking the good stuff. Look for value FA signings.

    Light a candle. Can’t see any light at the end of the tunnel yet.

  4. Lowetide says:

    stener:
    Is there anything this organization can do with competence?What a bleak outlook.

    Purge the org of MacT, Howson and whoever they’ve listened to.Trade the pick, should it be outside the top 2.Use it to acquire a d-man, and picks in the first few rounds or prospects with a pulse.Add the parts you need to make it work (i.e. not McD, Hall or Drai).Build depth up the middle.Try to sign Demers.Make a trade with Benning, he’s smoking the good stuff.Look for value FA signings.

    Light a candle.Can’t see any light at the end of the tunnel yet.

    There is promise here. Winquist was a nice get by Bob Green but the Oilers have to sign him. Will they?

  5. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q: Cassie Campbell (on McDavid): “So, how about that next contract?”

    Bob Nicholson (laughs): “Whatever he wants.”

    Oh dear.

    I also picked up that MacT is in fact doing scouting with Bob green. Why can’t it just be Bob Green and his own guy?

    Bob Green: “Well, Winquist looks like he can help. Why not try a two way deal this time?”

    MacT: “No! Are you insane?!! Soft skill man, read it on Sportsnet. We need to get this gritty Finn I saw the other day…”

    God help us.

    PS: I really wish Nicholson would just do “upstairs” stuff and stop dishing out material for the MSM to run with. At least don’t talk trades and contracts please.

  6. PDL says:

    Centre of attention,

    I know what you mean. I wonder what Chia thinks about Nicholson just spewing stuff out at every interview.

  7. John Chambers says:

    Hey LT – I’m a bit confused by your position as it relates to building a roster while taking the expansion draft into consideration. Although not a foregone conclusion, that the NHL is not saying “no” and TSN has laid out the likely criteria for expansion so … Why not?

    I mean if we’re going to have a moratorium on speculation we can rule out hypothesizing all trade scenarios, because after all, most of us are merely fans.

    A great tragedy of the infinibuild is that the expansion draft will likely cost us at least one asset that we paid a dear dear price (x7!) to acquire.

  8. Lowetide says:

    John Chambers:
    Hey LT – I’m a bit confused by your position as it relates to building a roster while taking the expansion draft into consideration. Although not a foregone conclusion, that the NHL is not saying “no” and TSN has laid out the likely criteria for expansion so … Why not?

    I mean if we’re going to have a moratorium on speculation we can rule out hypothesizing all trade scenarios, because after all, most of us are merely fans.

    A great tragedy of the infinibuild is that the expansion draft will likely cost us at least one asset that we paid a dear dear price (x7!) to acquire.

    Oh we can speculate until the cows come home. My only point is that if Chiarelli makes a trade today based on the expansion draft, he should be fired.

  9. G Money says:

    Centre of attention: I also picked up that MacT is in fact doing scouting with Bob green. Why can’t it just be Bob Green and his own guy?

    You know, when Chia came on board and MacT was not fired, I defended the move.

    Good companies often have an overlapping period for incoming vs outgoing management, both to help with knowledge transfer as well as personnel assessment (even in a failed management team, there is worthwhile individual talent).

    I recognize it’s hard to suss out, but nonetheless, I have yet to see any evidence of competence or useful contribution from MacT.

    Should have known better – always wiser to assume the worst with this crew.

  10. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide,

    Respectful I see it the opposite way: if he makes a short-sighted move that costs us Reinhart and Yakupov with no return when the writing was on the wall …

  11. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention,

    Agreed. Especially when he’s just going to back the Edmonton managing group into a corner in regards to negotiating contracts.

    I understand he’s a very, very, very special player, once in a lifetime, but don’t say he can have whatever contract value he wants out loud so the media and Connor’s agent can use it against you.

  12. RexLibris says:

    A little…okay, a LOT off topic, but if the Oilers dress 3 scoring lines for ten games next season I want to see Woodguy ride this down Jasper Ave at the 8am rush hour.

    http://imgur.com/gallery/GW9q98N

    Say what you want, but we all know he could pull it off.

  13. Lowetide says:

    John Chambers:
    Lowetide,

    Respectful I see it the opposite way: if he makes a short-sighted move that costs us Reinhart and Yakupov with no return when the writing was on the wall …

    How we he know that? The NHL has to give the GMs some kind of indication, they have not as of yet (unless I have missed it). For instance, do we know what year they will expand?

  14. highgloveside says:

    The only hockey related management they should keep other than PC is Bob Green and Bill Scott.
    Get rid of the rest. I give Scott a pass, was Gm of OKC for 4 years, 1st year as Oiler AGM

    MacT – focuses on AHL and ECHL team rosters
    Howson – same as MacT
    Rick Carriere – Sr Director Player Development – 4th season
    Buchy – works with MacT, Howson and Carrier, he has been trained by failures so he is no good to the Oilers

    Oilers only have 4 pro scouts, that is pitiful, that is where the team needs to spend some money and get that number up to 6-7

    Oilers have 11 amateur scouts, not sure how long they have been working for the Oilers, but almost everyone who has been with the team more than 3 years should be booted. I don’t know if they just need better scouting or need more scouting.

    There is no cap for management so this is where the team should be investing in.

    The Oilers also need to look at every RD they can for the Condors and fill the cubards.

    Do not resign Hunt, he blocks developing players from offensive and PP minutes.

    3-4 of the top 6 needs to be prospects developing, it seems like the prospects they are developing will become 4th line NHLers, that isn’t good enough, 4th liners are cheap and are a dime a dozen. The need to develop 2nd and 3rd liners.

  15. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    A little…okay, a LOT off topic, but if the Oilers dress 3 scoring lines for ten games next season I want to see Woodguy ride this down Jasper Ave at the 8am rush hour.

    http://imgur.com/gallery/GW9q98N

    Say what you want, but we all know he could pull it off.

    God that guy is pleased with himself. I think I might have gone to high school with him.

  16. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Oh we can speculate until the cows come home. My only point is that if Chiarelli makes a trade today based on the expansion draft, he should be fired.

    Like if he “blew it up” and traded Hall, RNH and EBERLE for picks?

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    Totally off topic, but it’s interesting how much more negative and ill informed the comments are at ON.

  18. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Like if he “blew it up” and traded Hall, RNH and EBERLE for picks?

    I think the GMs should proceed as if there is no expansion draft next summer. The NHL, if they plan to expand, should announce it soon. If we see Chiarelli make a trade, and people comment about the deal as it relates to some future expansion draft, I am unsure that is a fair way to proceed. The GM can only go with the information in front of him, and inertia is not an option in Edmonton.

  19. geowal says:

    John Chambers:
    Lowetide,

    Respectful I see it the opposite way: if he makes a short-sighted move that costs us Reinhart and Yakupov with no return when the writing was on the wall …

    Why assume that an expansion draft happens so soon? There will surely be a “trade deadline” of sorts leading to the expansion draft. Worry about it when you know when it is. On the meantime, focus on fixing this mess.

  20. Water Fire says:

    Lowetide: How we he know that? The NHL has to give the GMs some kind of indication, they have not as of yet (unless I have missed it). For instance, do we know what year they will expand?

    Do you actually believe the owners have no idea what is happening and won’t tell their GM’s?

  21. Professor Q says:

    frjohnk: Like if he “blew it up” and traded Hall, RNH and EBERLE for picks?

    As you need to endanger 25% of your cap, dangling one of those players gets it done without having to be forced to protect your drafted players.

  22. Lowetide says:

    Water Fire: Do you actually believe the owners have no idea what is happening and won’t tell their GM’s?

    No. I don’t think the NHL has decided when or it to expand.

  23. cc says:

    You know there’s been a lot of trash talk about Ebs over the last few days and for the most part it would seem the majority of commenters in this blog would like to send him packing – the sooner the better.

    Some of this may exists especially after his so called error on the goal against vs Calgary. And let me add, if anyone feels this way primarily after listening to Hrudey during one of his famous Hrudey Hrants; please log out now at the risk of responding with something equally stupid. Remember, Hrudey once compared Gaudreau to Gretzky.

    I for one do not see this as a smart (knee jerk) response. Ebs may not embody every aspect of a prototypical #1 or #2 right handed forward – but his ability win the puck battles along the boards and come away with the puck 90% of the time, feed other players high scoring chance opportunities, get in prime scoring position (as he was on the Maroon chance) a large majority of the times (well in heavy traffic), and Finnish with any of the best in the National Hockey League, deserves a little more respect.

    In that specific situation against Calgary… he said it well in his interview… He thought the puck was on Oesterle stick and was responding for a quick transitions. Had that been the case they would have had a four on three coming back. If you watch the play you can easily see this is exactly what he was thinking/seeing. For Hrudey to isolate that and hold it as an example of why Ebs needs to go is inexcusable.

    Did he make a mistake? Sure, but lets not through the baby out with the bathwater. If we want to run down everyone who’s made a mistake this year, well lets not go there.

    Ebs along side McD could and probable would score 50 next season. And before you say, “well anyone would”. Lets consider; Yak didn’t have the nack, and the Hall experiment didn’t last because they’re on two different pages. Whether one wants to admit it or not the two have a chemistry, and with Pou you have a #1 line who can compete with anyone.

  24. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide,

    They did say they’d expand no sooner than 2017 and that they’d have to give franchises 1 year advanced warning.

  25. Professor Q says:

    cc,

    The blog goes in phases regarding which player is the scapegoat.

    It Ebs and Flows, so to speak.

  26. GCW_69 says:

    highgloveside:
    The only hockey related management they should keep other than PC is Bob Green and Bill Scott.
    Get rid of the rest.I give Scott a pass, was Gm of OKC for 4 years, 1st year as Oiler AGM

    MacT – focuses on AHL and ECHL team rosters
    Howson – same as MacT
    Rick Carriere – Sr Director Player Development – 4th season
    Buchy – works with MacT, Howson and Carrier, he has been trained by failures so he is no good to the Oilers

    Oilers only have 4 pro scouts, that is pitiful, that is where the team needs to spend some money and get that number up to 6-7

    Oilers have 11 amateur scouts, not sure how long they have been working for the Oilers, but almost everyone who has been with the team more than 3 years should be booted.I don’t know if they just need better scouting or need more scouting.

    There is no cap for management so this is where the team should be investing in.

    The Oilers also need to look at every RD they can for the Condors and fill the cubards.

    Do not resign Hunt, he blocks developing players from offensive and PP minutes.

    3-4 of the top 6 needs to be prospects developing, it seems like the prospects they are developing will become 4th line NHLers, that isn’t good enough, 4th liners are cheap and are a dime a dozen.The need to develop 2nd and 3rd liners.

    Why give Green and Scott a pass? The bar should be excellence. If there is people out there better qualified for those two roles the Oilers should move on and thank them for their service.

    Additionally, if I am Chiarelli how would I know where their loyalties lie? Chiarelli didn’t hire them. Sometimes existing management wins over the new boss, but often they don’t.

  27. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: No. I don’t think the NHL has decided when or it to expand.

    Owners will be talking to thier GMs about probabilities though. And based on those probabilities will ask them to do scenario plans. The goal will be to find the scenario that best fits the probabilities.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q:
    cc,

    The blog goes in phases regarding which player is the scapegoat.

    It Ebs and Flows, so to speak.

    Ha! Well done.

  29. Professor Q says:

    highgloveside,

    I can’t wait for Bear and the other RDs to play in Bakersfield.

    And I do hope they STAY there until properly developed!

  30. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide: No. I don’t think the NHL has decided when or it to expand.

    See I believe they have decided and that the message has been revealed to the ownership community. It’s a foregone conclusion, in my admittedly amateur opinion, that the NHL expands to include Las Vegas in 2017.

    As for Quebec I’m sure they’re undergoing a feasibility study while also examining re-alignment scenarios – again, all of this at the ownership level.

    That they’re discussing expansion draft rules is a major tell. It’s like saying: “we have no concrete plans to expand, but if we did the rules would be as follows.”

    Regardless it places greater emphasis on draft picks, and young players currently deemed ineligible. As a result I conclude that the Oilers should keep the pick as opposed to trade it, and keep Darnell Nurse as opposed to trading him.

  31. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: Owners will be talking to thier GMs about probabilities though.And based on those probabilities will ask them to do scenario plans.The goal will be to find the scenario that best fits the probabilities.

    NHL expansion history tells us:

    1. The NHL suggests a format, and does it forcefully.
    2. The owners and GMs kick the living shit out of it.
    3. Expansion draft

    We do not know the rules or the year. Might as well speculate on the rapture.

  32. Lowetide says:

    John Chambers: See I believe they have decided and that the message has been revealed to the ownership community. It’s a foregone conclusion, in my admittedly amateur opinion, that the NHL expands to include Las Vegas in 2017.

    As for Quebec I’m sure they’re undergoing a feasibility study while also examining re-alignment scenarios – again, all of this at the ownership level.

    That they’re discussing expansion draft rules is a major tell. It’s like saying: “we have no concrete plans to expand, but if we did the rules would be as follows.”

    Regardless it places greater emphasis on draft picks, and young players currently deemed ineligible. As a result I conclude that the Oilers should keep the pick as opposed to trade it, and keep Darnell Nurse as opposed to trading him.

    Well they may do that, but in my amateur opinion the league will have to let teams know that before the draft lottery. So, 26 days.

  33. godot10 says:

    Professor Q:
    highgloveside,

    I can’t wait for Bear and the other RDs to play in Bakersfield.

    And I do hope they STAY there until properly developed!

    And the Oilers should have Musil there to be to his veteran mentor to accelerate Bear’s development. Musil should be qualified and re-signed. There is minimal risk of losing him on waivers.

    One expects a veteran partner for a rookie at the NHL level. Why should it be any different at the AHL level.

    That and Musil is basically now a tweener and thus can provide cheap NHL depth.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Rocco Grimaldi two goals tonight. Both nice ones. He is maybe 5.05.

  35. GCW_69 says:

    Well, over use of veterans at the AHL level had been a pet peeve of mine for the last few seasons. Thanks for letting us know it’s likely to continue.

    That said, when you draft in the top three year after year, your farm team is likely to suffer from lack of high end talent as those players generally skip the AHL.

    The Texas stars have three first picks playing for them. What surprised me was how many second round picks are on that roster. The oilers dismal failure in the second round – either drafting well or retaining sufficient picks – certainly has contributed to their lack of depth.

  36. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: God that guy is pleased with himself. I think I might have gone to high school with him.

    And why shouldn’t he be pleased with himself? That is one fine steel stallion he is riding. You have to have some serious chutzpah to roll down the street in that thing.

  37. Stelio Kontos says:

    How about Sekera for Hamonic.

    Klef Hamonic
    Yandle Demers
    Davidson Fayne
    Nurse

  38. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Rocco Grimaldi two goals tonight. Both nice ones. He is maybe 5.05.

    He and Gaudreau were both drafted in the same year, Grimaldi first, and there was talk of Grimaldi being the Martin St. Louis longshot and Gaudreau the even darker horse, iirc.

    The league is, local rivalries aside, a better place with players like this in it, in my opinion. Whitney and St. Louis were always entertaining.

  39. godot10 says:

    The NHL has to have firm rules for a 2017 expansion draft before the June 2016 entry draft if they intend to expand in 2017-18.

    Most owners are unlikely to vote for expansion without expansion draft rules in place.

  40. RexLibris says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    How about Sekera for Hamonic.

    Klef Hamonic
    Yandle Demers
    Davidson Fayne
    Nurse

    Sekera has a NMC, I believe. Doesn’t mean he wouldn’t waive it to go to Brooklyn and play games in April/May, but it is another hurdle.

  41. square_wheels says:

    John Chambers,

    I wonder if the Quebec team will require the rest of the league to pay for their opening night celebrations ? Or when one of the Stastny brother or Michele Goulet kicks off, each team has to send 10k towards the funeral ?

    That fucking province……..

  42. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Rocco Grimaldi two goals tonight. Both nice ones. He is maybe 5.05.

    I watched those as well. He’s got a shot for sure. He plays on a team that can cover for his lack of size by lining him up beside 6’6” Bjugstad or 6’3” Barkov. There is a method to the madness. St Louis had Lecavalier. Big center, small sniper. Like peas in a pod.

    RexLibris,

    Magniapane could be the next one. Damn Flames trying to get their St. Louis back haha.

  43. Stelio Kontos says:

    square_wheels:
    John Chambers,

    I wonder if the Quebec team will require the rest of the league to pay for their opening night celebrations ? Or when one of the Stastny brother or Michele Goulet kicks off, each team has to send 10k towards the funeral ?

    That fucking province……..

    They probably don’t send their players to international competitions either.

  44. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide,

    Interesting. But why prior to the draft lottery? It’s not as if the expansion teams will have a selection in the 2016 pechage.

    In theory the NHL could wait until the end of the SCF or whenever trade activity resumes around the middle of June heading into the draft. And as I had previously mentioned im of the belief that word has already trickled down to the GM’s who are calculating it into their plans.

    But again I’m purely speculating. I’m not trying to start a bun fight or anything and am grateful for all your wonderful prose from this site that delights me every day on the bus to work. I think the exp draft will negatively affect the Oilers more than any other team and as a tier-7 fan I offer up strategies on how to minimize the impact. I don’t mean to frustrate or annoy anybody, but believe it has the potential to cost us a Davidson and / or a Reinhart and to me that’s a “big damn deal”. 🙂

  45. Lowetide says:

    One thing I would hope Chiarelli considers is trading for another bona fide starting goalie. If you go to the entry draft with two terrific goaltenders, then you will lose one—but you have certainty. There is value in it, and it has been done previously for expansion.

  46. Lowetide says:

    John Chambers:
    Lowetide,

    Interesting. But why prior to the draft lottery? It’s not as if the expansion teams will have a selection in the 2016 pechage.

    In theory the NHL could wait until the end of the SCF or whenever trade activity resumes around the middle of June heading into the draft. And as I had previously mentioned im of the belief that word has already trickled down to the GM’s who are calculating it into their plans.

    But again I’m purely speculating. I’m not trying to start a bun fight or anything and am grateful for all your wonderful prose from this site that delights me every day on the bus to work. I think the exp draft will negatively affect the Oilers more than any other team and as a tier-7 fan I offer up strategies on how to minimize the impact. I don’t mean to frustrate or annoy anybody, but believe it has the potential to cost us a Davidson and / or a Reinhart and to me that’s a “big damn deal”. :)

    Well, I think you have to let teams in because trades can and do happen during the period after the season (and before June). If the Oilers made a trade in early June (and they happen) that put them in peril based on the rules, then they would have every right to be pissed. Maybe they have a trade freeze after the season? That would be fine.

  47. Water Fire says:

    Lowetide: No. I don’t think the NHL has decided when or it to expand.

    The NHL is the owners. I expect the invoice amount makes it sooner than later : $ 500M US / 30 = 16.66M per. Especially Katz right now.

  48. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing I would hope Chiarelli considers is trading for another bona fide starting goalie. If you go to the entry draft with two terrific goaltenders, then you will lose one—but you have certainty. There is value in it, and it has been done previously for expansion.

    Besides any move that would block Calgary from getting one is stellar.

  49. Adam Wu says:

    The one thing MacT had a record of doing fairly decently was amateur scouting. The one area where the team was not incompetent at during his tenure as GM was amateur scouting.

    I don’t get this angst about MacT being involved with Green in scouting.

    If the decision was not to punt MacT into the sun from the beginning, then putting MacT into the amateur scouting department is exactly what any competent executive would do after reviewing MacT’s performance record in detail.

  50. Professor Q says:

    RexLibris: He and Gaudreau were both drafted in the same year, Grimaldi first, and there was talk of Grimaldi being the Martin St. Louis longshot and Gaudreau the even darker horse, iirc.

    The league is, local rivalries aside, a better place with players like this in it, in my opinion. Whitney and St. Louis were always entertaining.

    Paul Kariya was my favourite 90s player aside from Gretzky.

  51. Caramel Batman says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing I would hope Chiarelli considers is trading for another bona fide starting goalie. If you go to the entry draft with two terrific goaltenders, then you will lose one—but you have certainty. There is value in it, and it has been done previously for expansion.

    This is smart. Very smart.

    The teams that lose a goaltender lose nothing but a backup, by definition

    The teams with the best backups win the expansion draft. Plus backups are relatively cheap to acquire.

    So this is very, very, very, smart and yet the kind of thing your average NHL GM is too dumb to do.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Part of that comes from drafting, but a lot of it—in my opinion—comes from too many at-bats loaned out to AHL veterans. The skilled Condors were mostly those vets, and for me that speaks to extremely poor development. Hey, maybe I am wrong about this, but when I look at the top of the division and the Texas Stars, there are a couple of older gents and several miles of prospects.

    This cannot be over-stated enough.

    The usual reasoning given for putting AHL vets in the key offensive spots (and the PP time that goes with it) is “we want our prospects to develop winning habits/play on winning teams”

    That line of reasoning is, in my opinion, utter bullshit.

    Prospects are there to learn to play the pro garme and the single most important thing you can do is play them.

    The team’s record really doesn’t matter for development.

    Time on ice matters for development.

    Here is the “poster-boy” team for my argument: The 2012/13 Norfolk Admirals who missed the playoffs that year.

    Here are their top 10 scorers along with their ages to start that season:

    Patrick Maroon 24
    Sami Vatanen 21
    Peter Holland 21
    Devante Smith-Pelly 20
    Kyle Palmieri 21
    Nate Guenin 29
    Chris Wagner 21
    Josh Brittain 22
    Luca Caputi 23
    Emerson Etem 20

    Here’s those same player and how they got to the ANA organization:

    Patrick Maroon 2007 6th rounder – traded from PHI
    Sami Vatanen 2009 4th rounder
    Peter Holland 2009 1st rounder 15th overall
    Devante Smith-Pelly 2010 2nd rounder
    Kyle Palmieri 2009 1st rounder 26th overall
    Nate Guenin NHL/AHL vet (who revived his career)
    Chris Wagner 2010 5th rounder
    Josh Brittain 2008 3rd rounder
    Luca Caputi 2007 4th rounder traded from PIT to TOR to ANA
    Emerson Etem 2009 1st rounder 29th overall

    Here’s how many NHL games those players have played since that year:

    Patrick Maroon 216
    Sami Vatanen 193
    Peter Holland 191
    Devante Smith-Pelly 161
    Kyle Palmieri 267
    Nate Guenin 173
    Chris Wagner 48
    Josh Brittain 0
    Luca Caputi 0
    Emerson Etem 166

    Looks like the losing really took its toll on these players eh?

    As far as the NHL team is concerned, the AHL team is there for three reasons.

    1) At bats
    2) TOI
    3) Experience playing the goddam game and not watching it from the bench while 28 year olds play on the 1st until powerplay

  53. stush18 says:

    LT what quantifies Reinhart being a trade candidate and nurse not?

    Reinhart has played better, and is the higher draft pedigree. I love nurse, but he should be just as much a trade candidate in my opinion. They may end up being essentially the same player.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman: This is smart.Very smart.

    The teams that lose a goaltender lose nothing but a backup, by definition

    The teams with the best backups win the expansion draft.Plus backups are relatively cheap to acquire.

    So this is very, very, very, smart and yet the kind of thing your average NHL GM is too dumb to do.

    Also, once you lose a player in this expansion draft, you cannot lose another one.

    Have the best goalie available and maybe you won’t have to wring your hands about a 2nd/3rd pairing Dman you had to expose?

    That being said, Thomas Greiss is the best backup in the NHL and his contract runs out next summer.

  55. Chachi says:

    cc,

    I was mostly with you up to the Eberle could score 50 with McDavid bit. I think Eberle is the cat’s pyjamas, but he does not get enough shots off to come anywhere near 50 goals. In an absolutely perfect season playing with McDavid and staying healthy he might get close to 40 goals (that is no small feat) but there is no way in hell that he will ever get close to 50.

  56. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    LT what quantifies Reinhart being a trade candidate and nurse not?

    Reinhart has played better, and is the higher draft pedigree. I love nurse, but he should be just as much a trade candidate in my opinion. They may end up being essentially the same player.

    It is a guess on my part, to be honest. My guess is that the Oilers value Nurse in a big way. Little things like his name gets mentioned inner circle along with McDavid and Leon. But maybe they trade Darnell and keep GR. It would surprise me, though, based on the Oilers own moves this year.

  57. Water Fire says:

    stush18:
    LT what quantifies Reinhart being a trade candidate and nurse not?

    Reinhart has played better, and is the higher draft pedigree. I love nurse, but he should be just as much a trade candidate in my opinion. They may end up being essentially the same player.

    Not unless griffin goes all GRIFFIN!

    I think it’s time everybody gives up the past. Connor McDavid is the best thing that has happened to the Edmonton Oilers since Gretzky.

    In the same way the Pens were gifted Lemieux and Crosby the other most recent and our dynasty has been gifted Connor.

    The ten years don’t matter in the face of Connor. To look in the past and wish for better is to take him off the team now.

    Let it go. It gave us the best gift.

    Move on. It’s time to look forward.

    And now demand more. For us and for Connor.

  58. fifthcartel says:

    The way they talk about Nurse is kinda starting to scare me. Its like they think he’s Aaron Ekblad or Hampus Lindholm, when really he’s looking more like Zach Bogosian with less offense.

    I certainly wouldn’t consider him untouchable, especially over Klefbom, and it’s still early, but I think they might have unrealistic expectations for what he will become.

  59. Evilas says:

    LT,

    I agree with a vet goalie who would be an expansion target, as well, as we know all too well how valuable depth at every position would be for this roster.

    I am fully prepared to accept that Chiarelli will use all of Hall, RHN, Ebs to acquire the D that this roster needs. I would also hope that he throws in any and all picks necessary. That being said, there would have to be additional pieces coming back as well.

    For example: Pouliot to Anaheim with salary retained for Montour and a 5th

    Then: RNH, Hall, Brossoit (added if Alex Lyons signs), Montour, Bear + 2017,18 & 19 1st to Ottawa for: Karlsson, Hoffman, Lazar & Matt O’Connor. Would Ottawa do this deal?

    For OEL & Samuelsson: Klefbom, Simpson +2016 1st, 2nd & 2 3rds. Would this work for Arizona?

    After that fill in the roster with UFA’s, but offer no NMC’s or NTC’s

    Yak for Severson & Eberle for Hamonic. Is Ottawa sufficiently addled that Karlsson can be had this offseason?

    Imagine a D depth chart like this one:

    OEL – Karlsson
    Sekera – Hamonic
    Davidson – Severson
    Pardy – Gryba
    ——————–
    Nurse – Reinhart – Oesterle – Musil

    Offload Korpse (retain salary), Letestu, Lander and Hendricks for picks or prospects

    Fill in the roster with the likes of Backes, Okoposo, Chris Stewart, Stempniak and target a 3C who is a good face-off man and has a little bit of offense.

    DO NOT go after the big game like Stamkos, Eriksson or Lucic, too much salary moving forward

  60. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: It is a guess on my part, to be honest. My guess is that the Oilers value Nurse in a big way. Little things like his name gets mentioned inner circle along with McDavid and Leon. But maybe they trade Darnell and keep GR. It would surprise me, though, based on the Oilers own moves this year.

    Agreed. I’m just worried we are ignoring Reinharts value because nurse has more “truculence”. I think nurse is will turn into a athletic top four shutdown dman. But if his trade value is say “double” what Reinharts is, and could get you that piece you need, I do it.

    And to be honest, I think chia is the kind of guy that would do this. He showed in Boston he has no problem moving pieces soon after acquiring them in order to better the team.

    Don’t want to accuse you of shipping him out of town, because you obviously don’t do that, but your word carries weight, and many people only read what you write and not the comments.

  61. Water Fire says:

    Pietrangelo has 29 EVP

    Shattenkirk has 17 EVP

    Who’s the better player, who’s being pumped, who’s worth a major asset?

  62. stush18 says:

    Adam Wu:
    The one thing MacT had a record of doing fairly decently was amateur scouting. The one area where the team was not incompetent at during his tenure as GM was amateur scouting.

    I don’t get this angst about MacT being involved with Green in scouting.

    If the decision was not to punt MacT into the sun from the beginning, then putting MacT into the amateur scouting department is exactly what any competent executive would do after reviewing MacT’s performance record in detail.

    Agreed. He has a good amateur resume. Slepy and yak are my favs, as well as winquist, who I credit to green.

    I don’t understand the hate on bob green? To me he’s done an unreal job of unearthing hidden gems. Combine hat with this years stellar draft and I think he’s doing a great job.

  63. stush18 says:

    Kind of bombarding the board with comments and questions here but….

    Why are powerplay points not valued? They are often discredited if they score lots on the powerplay.

    It’s easy to say “oh they should score lots, there is more space and one less man!”

    Running a powerplay and executing on one is a skill, it’s something that is developed. You can’t just send out any player and expect them to score. You need to be able to read the defenders, where passing lanes are and aren’t, teams habits, stick positioning, stick handedness, goalies strengths and weaknesses, attack lanes.

  64. Caramel Batman says:

    Woodguy,

    That Norfold roster is depressing. So much real talent found and developed outside the first round of the draft. This is why the Oilers lose, not Taylor Hall.

  65. Johnny skid says:

    cc: Yak didn’t have the nack,

    are you sure about that? it’s cool that you feel the need to defend eberle but i don’t see the need to make shit up in the process.

  66. Evilas says:

    Woodguy: Also, once you lose a player in this expansion draft, you cannot lose another one.

    Have the best goalie available and maybe you won’t have to wring your hands about a 2nd/3rd pairing Dman you had to expose?

    That being said, Thomas Greiss is the best backup in the NHL and his contract runs out next summer.

    Woodguy,

    What about Antti Raanta? He is very young for a UFA and has had a winning record every year as a pro in NA, has a fairly consistent Save Percentage (other than his first year) and has been on value contracts since his arrival.

  67. bendelson says:

    RexLibris,

    Lowetide,

    It’s been a few years, but I’m pretty certain that IS Woodguy fellas…

  68. Oilanderp says:

    This women’s gold medal game is a dandy!

  69. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy: Also, once you lose a player in this expansion draft, you cannot lose another one.

    Have the best goalie available and maybe you won’t have to wring your hands about a 2nd/3rd pairing Dman you had to expose?

    That being said, Thomas Greiss is the best backup in the NHL and his contract runs out next summer.

    Unless there are two expansion teams.

  70. RexLibris says:

    Centre of attention: I watched those as well. He’s got a shot for sure. He plays on a team that can cover for his lack of size by lining him up beside 6’6” Bjugstad or 6’3” Barkov. There is a method to the madness. St Louis had Lecavalier. Big center, small sniper. Like peas in a pod.

    RexLibris,

    Magniapane could be the next one. Damn Flames trying to get their St. Louis back haha.

    His numbers look good in junior, thought I haven’t actually seen him play so we’ll have to wait and see. Baertschi posted a 2.0 ppg pace in his draft +1 year, and then had a 1.0 ppg in a brief callup so I always hold back a little on prospects.

    I think Gaudreau has made most Flames fans forget about St. Louis, though. 🙂

  71. RexLibris says:

    Professor Q: Unless there are two expansion teams.

    There was some word last week about Carolina moving to Quebec, so they might relocate one and introduce another.

    It’d be pretty funny Quebec (via the Hurricanes) came back into the league twenty-odd years after they lost the Nordiques to Colorado and ended up with more Stanley Cups than Vancouver. 🙂

    There would also be some nice historical symmetry to an old WHA franchise (Whalers) moving back to an old WHA city.

  72. Rondo says:

    Can’t believe Vancouver beats all California teams.

    Well worst pick now for Edmonton is # 6 .

  73. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Can’t believe Vancouver beats all California teams.

    Well worst pick now for Edmonton is # 6 .

    Interesting options for the Oilers among those six spots. Good for the Canucks, they are trying to win every night. That is the most important thing.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy: Also, once you lose a player in this expansion draft, you cannot lose another one.

    Have the best goalie available and maybe you won’t have to wring your hands about a 2nd/3rd pairing Dman you had to expose?

    That being said, Thomas Greiss is the best backup in the NHL and his contract runs out next summer.

    Yeah unless you are looking at losing Vasilevski who has more value than pretty much any forward that will be exposed.

  75. Woodguy says:

    Evilas: Woodguy,

    What about Antti Raanta?He is very young for a UFA and has had a winning record every year as a pro in NA, has a fairly consistent Save Percentage (other than his first year) and has been on value contracts since his arrival.

    I like him too.

    Greiss has an amazing track record for a guy who’s never started though.

  76. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer: Yeah unless you are looking at losing Vasilevski who has more value than pretty much any forward that will be exposed.

    It really depends on the rules.

    Vasilevski is still on his ELC next year and Bishop’s contract runs out next summer as well.

  77. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    I would imagine Oilers take forwards definitely with the #1 and #2 pick . After that I could see them taking a D- man.

  78. Stelio Kontos says:

    Woodguy: Also, once you lose a player in this expansion draft, you cannot lose another one.

    Have the best goalie available and maybe you won’t have to wring your hands about a 2nd/3rd pairing Dman you had to expose?

    That being said, Thomas Greiss is the best backup in the NHL and his contract runs out next summer.

    Following the same logic we could leave McDavid exposed.

  79. Dominoiler says:

    wrt Eberle’s defensive game, does anyone think that getting into playoff games would do some good?.. Yzerman-esque story of learning what it takes to win, then working on doing it.. Maybe we’ll see that story line, but not unless management can improve this team enough to get them there..

    Management has to do all this while burning off contracts, mostly those of the previous administration.. But, the previous administration still is a part of the ‘new’ administration, even w a strong majority in the scouting department (if that post earlier was true, about the Oilers only have a few pro-scouts, Mac n How n Bucky, holding sway.. I bet they do things the ‘Kevin Lowe’ way, so despite their obvious failures (and, admittedly, few successes) they’ve managed to stick around.. If they were to have a larger scouting team, then it would likely diminish their voice, their voting majority, in scouting decisions.. So they dont hire anyone else, until ownership stepped in.. The call is coming from inside the house, and almost everyone else is in on it..

    Jezzy Petes has another doozy of a summer coming up..

  80. brilaw says:

    Lowetide,

    A little off topic.but if there is an added.team on the way we maybe surprised at the quality of players in play rather than losing them for nothing I feel like an expansion team comes at just the right time for us jmho

  81. Hockey Buddha says:

    RexLibris: And why shouldn’t he be pleased with himself? That is one fine steel stallion he is riding. You have to have some serious chutzpah to roll down the street in that thing.

    I like the comment: “swagcycle.” Nice.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    Whereas normally am subjected to trade Yakupov/Nurse ideas(which tend to drive me hastily to the brink); since TMac’s presser the entire fucking TEAM is going to be on the block for the entire summer…meaning endless trade Eberle/Hall/ everything but McDavid which conjures up my worst nightmare viz this team in 2016:

    That is, they trade these dynamic excellent players away, ala the Atlanta Thrashers for mediocre returns; leaving the Oilers a reasonable bet to make it out of round 1 in the playoffs…but never further than the WCF.

    Hungover as I write this(nothing to do with the Oilers), having ZERO faith in the management aside from the fact they kept everyone around for the entire season, presumably to evaluate them properly.

  83. hunter1909 says:

    And through it all, Kevin Lowe and MacT keep their cushy jobs for life.

    At very least this pair of tw@ts are going into the history books as having presided over the most incredible destruction of a pro sports franchise, ever.

  84. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I do think it’s time the organization moved on from Howson and MacT. It’s the optics of it. This needs to be Chiarelli’s team. I argued last summer that they should be purged. Many of you, like G Money, argued that continuity in management has value, and I could see your point of view, despite disagreeing.

    To me, you can’t shake up the organization and trade away key players if you aren’t going to remove the people who were the architects of the team you are going to break apart.

    Howson and MacT should go, replaced by fresh talent from outside the organization. Let’s face it: they may be okay as an amateur scout or whatnot, but overall they have failed in their mission to build a good team. Whatever amateur scouting value they bring should be fairly easily replaced and sourced from outside. And we know that neither of these two knows a c good defenseman at the pro level when they see one.

    I will be very unhappy if Chia dismantles this team without dismantling his deputies first. Get some smart, fresh minds in that room and make an honest assessment of your players before you deal them.

    Also, keep Lowe away from all cameras and microphones at all costs. Remember just a couple of months ago he claimed it was the plan all along to not make the playoffs until the new building and that this is all going according to the Grand Plan. He insults the fan base with his revisionist drivel every time he opens his mouth. I have respect for what he has done for this organization and am not asking him to be fired. Just let him do his thing away from the media.

  85. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    P.S. The global economy is in a very, very precarious place. Expanding now without knowing where things may be in 2017 could be very dangerous, but maybe they are trying to get one last big fee in ahead of trouble.

    This is a very important summer for the world economy. Growth is stagnating and traders are starting the end game of fighting the central banks and calling their bluff. They are doing it with Japan as we speak.

  86. Professor Q says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    P.S. The global economy is in a very, very precarious place. Expanding now without knowing where things may be in 2017 could be very dangerous, but maybe they are trying to get one last big fee in ahead of trouble.

    This is a very important summer for the world economy. Growth is stagnating and traders are starting the end game of fighting the central banks and calling their bluff. They are doing it with Japan as we speak.

    They said they won’t expand until after 2017.

    Also, not to mention everyone being called out and their secrets released.

    Giant Global Oil Bribery Scandal AND Giant Secret Offshore Accounts released in the same week?

    Something is coming.

  87. Woodguy says:

    Stelio Kontos: Following the same logic we could leave McDavid exposed.

    Don’t see how that follows any logic.

  88. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Professor Q,

    Oh the Panama Papers incident is fascinating. Just wait until they release the papers that have US officials. Just wait! It’s going to shake things up like a giant earthquake.

  89. hunter1909 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Professor Q,

    Oh the Panama Papers incident is fascinating. Just wait until they release the papers that have US officials. Just wait! It’s going to shake things up like a giant earthquake.

    I’m more political than financially wired; the Brexit vote could easily see the UK leave the EU with all kinds of attendant fallout, the US election could offer up anything from a Socialist(Sanders) to a Neocon(Clinton) to the current leader of the GOP race Donald Trump, while the EU potentially disintegrates in the total meltdown scenario which, like the rise of Trump has gone unreported by the MSM.

  90. Ryan says:

    This is your brain on Oilers: 45 3 7 10 14 -22
    This is your brain off Oilers: 15 1 6 7 2 10

    Any questions?

  91. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909: I’m more political than financially wired; the Brexit vote could easily see the UK leave the EU with all kinds of attendant fallout, the US election could offer up anything from a Socialist(Sanders) to a Neocon(Clinton) to the current leader of the GOP race Donald Trump, while the EU potentially disintegrates in the total meltdown scenario which, like the rise of Trump has gone unreported by the MSM.

    I think the oil industry bribing governments and governments laundering billions of dollars offshore are pretty political stories, however.

  92. unca miltie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Do you have thoughts about the Canadian Dollar.It has rebounded some this year. Do you think that will continue? Could have some impact on what happens with Québec city.

  93. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    unca miltie:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Do you have thoughts about the Canadian Dollar.It has rebounded some this year. Do you think that will continue? Could have some impact on what happens with Québec city.

    Well, said all along to expect a technical rebound toward 1.30-1.32 at some point before further weakness to come. Still think that although the global central banks appeared to have colluded together in Shanghai in February to prop up markets and send oil and stocks back up, which caused the US dollar to weaken.

    Now the speculators are betting hard against the USD and trying to weaken it further. Check out USDJPY and USDEUR.
    Only the CAD has still weakened this week because oil is weaker. So watch these other currencies plus oil to get a sense of direction now. It’s a lot tougher to predict the next path when the game is so deeply rigged like it is at the moment.

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