FREE BIRD

Oscar Klefbom is alive and well and living in the city. Todd McLellan had some encouraging words about him yesterday and it is a big damn deal.

  • McLellan: “From what I’ve been told when Oscar shows up training camp next season, we won’t even be talking about this. If our team had played well enough to give ourselves a shot at the playoffs, maybe Oscar would have been out there. Right now, it makes no sense to put him on the ice and have it (cured) to the just about line and then have it go back. Let’s let it heal.” Source

I am going to ignore the ‘from what I’ve been told’ portion and assume this is written in stone. If healthy (along with Brandon Davidson), the Oilers have some hope for next season. Get well, Oscar! No hänsynslös behaviour this summer! Klefbom and Davidson could and should be the beginning of a defensive pipeline that eventually puts to rest all these defensive issues. Chasing free agents and trades that will never happen is a fool’s game.

khaira capture2

Last night we talked about next year’s Condors and the lack of talent coming up into the system for this fall. The key for Edmonton is to find a way to turn graduating draft picks into useful NHL players. They don’t need impact scorers—although they are welcome—but a steady parade of good skaters who can play the game is essential. As always, we have a bunch of kids either entering or exiting their entry-level deals, let’s have a look at how they progressed this year.

FIRST YEAR PRO’S

  • C Connor McDavid 43gp, 15-30-45 in the NHL. Music!
  • D Darnell Nurse 67gp, 2-7-9 in the NHL. Struggled, Oilers are awful at developing D.
  • L Anton Slepyshev 11gp, 0-1-1 in the NHL. An uneven season after a strong start.
  • D Joey Laleggia 57gp, 8-17-25 in the AHL. A solid pro debut, may be something here.
  • C Kyle Platzer 42gp, 5-11-16 in the AHL. A solid showing, when healthy.
  • G Eetu Laurikainen 17gp, 3.26 .909 in the AHL. A reasonable bet, nothing special about season.
  • R Greg Chase 40gp, 16-18-34 in the ECHL. Unusual handling, may benefit him in future.
  • D Ben Betker 49gp, 3-14-17 in the ECHL. Big man spent most of year on in AA.
  • L Braden Christoffer 21gp, 11-5-16 in the ECHL. Solid season once demoted from AHL.

Peter Chiarelli and the Oilers got extremely lucky with McDavid and he is absolutely amazing. After that, I applaud the attempt to send Darnell Nurse down, but the team didn’t have enough depth. It would have been a good idea to send him back to the AHL by about G35, and we are left with another ‘hey Anton Lander stayed up all season’ campaign. That is also the case (a little) with the Russian Slepyshev, although the club did send him down in plenty of time (he just got hurt and then didn’t play well—better lately).

The AHL group is interesting. Joey Laleggia had a good season, and that is important because his entry-level deal is just two seasons (RFA 2017). I bet they have a good look at him in the fall. Kyle Platzer played basically half a season, but showed well in those games and could have a future.

ECHL level probably helped Greg Chase, who got to play (unlike some of the AHL youngsters we will talk about in a minute). Ben Betker is a big man with good straightaway speed but his turns weren’t terrific in camp and that AA time probably helped him.

SECOND YEAR PRO’S

  • C Leon Draisaitl 70gp, 18-32-50 in the NHL. A fantastic season.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen 61gp, 5-6-11 in the NHL. Emerged as a useful player. Offense a ?
  • D Jordan Oesterle 15gp, 0-5-5 in the NHL. He has made nice progress.
  • C Jujhar Khaira 15gp, 0-2-2 in the NHL. Big, strong, has some speed. Could have an NHL career.
  • D Griffin Reinhart 27gp, 0-1-1 in the NHL. Should be in the conversation for NHL work in 16-17.
  • D Dillon Simpson 51gp, 3-15-18 in the AHL. Making slow and steady progress.
  • C Bogdan Yakimov 30gp, 5-8-13 in the AHL. Also played in KHL. Did not progress.
  • L Mitch Moroz 38gp, 4-5-9 in the AHL. Big man hasn’t established himself in pro.
  • Also turning pro in 2014-15: Josh Winquist, Kellen Jones, Connor Jones, Nick Pageau, CJ Ludwig, Frans Tuohimaa—although the Finn had played in the Sm-Liiga.

Leon Draisaitl’s season is a great story, it would have been nice to see him sustain it. The club rode him early and there may have been an injury in there, too. Conditioning an issue? I am not certain, we heard so much about how hard he worked in the summer so it is a hard thing to suss out. Iiro Pakarinen appears to have impressed Todd McLellan enough to pencil him in to the lineup next year. Jordan Oesterle and Jujhar Khaira look like callup options, and Reinhart is in the mix but could also be trade bait. The AHL trio are an interesting lot—I think Yakimov is the most likely to have a career and Simpson is the most likely to be better next year (his entire post-draft career appears to be getting better in small increments. No idea if it will be enough).

THIRD-YEAR PRO’S

  • D Oscar Klefbom 30gp, 4-8-12 in the NHL. His injury had a major impact on the season.
  • G Laurent Brossoit 5gp, 3.61 .873 in the NHL. Bona fide based on NHL resume. Last step next.
  • L Kale Kessy 51gp, 7-5-12 in the AHL. Big, rugged W may not return.
  • D David Musil 61gp, 3-10-13 AHL. He is a solid AHL defender, waiting for his NHL chance.
  • Also turning pro in 2013-14: Andrew Miller, Martin Gernat, Travis Ewanyk. Each of these men have been traded since.

Oscar Klefbom is an important player for this organization. Injury worries aside (and it sounds like he will be ready in the fall) this is a splendid player who should be a big part of the team for the rest of the decade and beyond. Laurent Brossoit is going to get his chance, but it might not be next season. Kessy and Musil are at a crossroads with the organization, we will have to wait and see about their future.

I don’t think anyone was overly curious about this, but Roman Horak won’t be coming back to North America for the next two seasons. Craig MacTavish won the trade (Brossoit is a good prospect, Laddy Smid’s contract is not a positive based on his play) no matter, hope Horak enjoys his career in Europe. He played only two games for the Oilers, I always thought he had NHL talent.

One of the things we can be sure of is bias. Todd McLellan is a bona fide NHL coach, but now that we have seen him for a year there is a track record. Not all of it is positive. If Todd McLellan is arguing in favor of retaining Lauri Korpikoski and flushing Jordan Eberle, then we know Peter Chiarelli cannot listen to his coach. I doubt that McLellan has a hit list, and even if he did it would be catastrophic for PC to trade those players without equal return.

The problem with airing your dirty laundry in public—and that is what these two days have been about—is that it reduces the value of contracts in play. Peter Chiarelli has to go get two right-handed Sekera’s (or better) this summer, a reduced-in-value Jordan Eberle (or Nuge) doesn’t help the cause. I am hopeful that Peter Chiarelli will make good choices this summer, and suspect the lower value of Edmonton’s current forwards (they haven’t won much) means the draft pick may be in play. I am more than okay with it.

One player Edmonton should be looking at is Adam Brooks. He appears to be one of those undervalued small forwards, and this article from Zac Urback shows exactly why he (and others) should be valued highly at the draft. The Oilers devoted most of their draft to defenders in 2015, it would be (imo) wise to grab a few Adam Brooks in the 2016 edition.

No word on Lyon today, he is an interesting prospect—but I always wonder about those Finns and Swedes across the pond. Still lots of fishing to do, Peter Chiarelli may sign Lyon, draft a goalie and be active in free agency—he needs to be aggressive this summer at this position.

Most of what I read and hear from national media about the Edmonton Oilers is kind of crazy. It sounds like getting over losing Connor McDavid has been difficult. We understand. Ontario teenagers have landed in the Oilers lap before, maybe will again. It is not fair, but it is reality. I don’t think there is much to be gained by hammering the Oilers brand and attempting to shame Edmonton fans, and hell maybe that is a ratings winner. Seems to me it also exposes people for what they truly are, and lately it has been most unattractive.

It would take a massive return. I have said, and remain convinced, the defenseman who would be required to acquire Taylor Hall is not in play. Players of this value don’t get traded, unless there is a lot of crazy in the front office.

jones movie

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun, busy show. This morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Mr. Chiarelli, tear down this team! Or not.
  • Scott Zerr, Oilers Nation. How many Condors are NHL-ready?
  • Zachery Rymer, Bleacher Report. Are the Dodgers still batting?
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260/Oil Kings PBP. The Oil Kings need a win, badly.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

 

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101 Responses to "FREE BIRD"

  1. meanashell11 says:

    They call out their players in Denver and Brooklyn and it does not effect the value of the player, it means they may be available. I don’t buy it that Ebs lowered his value because Kelly Hrudey says so. Hrudey is an idiot. It says more to his intelligence than it does to Ebs’ value.

    Fuck Hrudey.

    Seriously. Fuck that guy!

  2. Centre of attention says:

    From Dreger Transcript:

    ““I think that for the most part he had a real good year. Things tailed off for him in the second half. But when I approached the Edmonton Oilers near the trade deadline – and we’re talking about not just Peter Chiarelli, but those above him – and asked, ‘Okay, we’re putting this list together going into deadline day. We know about Eberle. We know about the possibility of Nugent-Hopkins,’ even though there was injury in play at that point. ‘Is it conceivable that Taylor Hall could be a moveable piece, if not at the deadline, then perhaps at the summer.’

    “And the message that I got back was, ‘Look. There’s one untouchable and his name is Connor McDavid. The next on that list is Taylor Hall being close to untouchable.’”

    This is encouraging. Good to see they understand the value of Hall.

  3. Clay says:

    Please Baby Jebus, all I ask is for a healthy, 75+ game season next year for Klef, Davidson, Sekera, at least one of the 2 RHD brought in, plus Hall, RNH, Drai, and McD.

    Please please please, Amen.

    I just want to see what we’ve actually got here.

  4. Wyndi says:

    meanashell11:
    They call out their players in Denver and Brooklyn and it does not effect the value of the player, it means they may be available. I don’t buy it that Ebs lowered his value because Kelly Hrudey says so. Hrudey is an idiot. It says more to his intelligence than it does to Ebs’ value.

    If I’m Peter Chiarelli I’m calling Joe Sakic on the regular. They seem like an organization that could be taken advantage of.

  5. cc says:

    The Oiler’s forward prospects are in horrible shape. Right now they have; Khaira, Yakimov, Slepyshev (if they don’t decide to go to Russia) Platzer, Chase, Moroz and perhaps Winquist, Benik & Roy. Outside the pro organization is even worse Campbell, Muir, Vesel (There is a good chance none of these guys are signed).

    The Oiler’s should have 5 picks inside the top 100 and another 4 picks between 120 – 200. I hope the Oiler’s target overage forwards with the 120 – 200 picks like; Alexis D’Aoust, Adam Brooks, Brayden Burke, Dante Salituro & Reid Gardiner.

    From 2010 – 12 the Oilers drafted 11 forwards in the 2-7 rounds; Pitlick, Hamilton, Martindale, Czerwonka, Pelss, Jones, Rieder, Ewanyk, McCarron, Zharkov & Khaira. None, currently are having an impact with the Oilers. (Why did they trade Rieder?) The only one that might play 100+ games is Khaira and he’s likely tops out as a 3rd line player.

  6. dustrock says:

    LT, I’m not convinced all the guano-flinging by the apes is going to lead to a decrease in value in our players.

    Look at the Pat Maroon deal – obviously Chia Pete and Murray had been talking for a while about possible deals and Murray made a decision to go with McGinn (who has been hot) and Maroon became available for cheap.

    Professional GMs talk business every day and have general agreements if anything came up, I’m sure, without some personal vendettas/feelings getting in the way (unless you’re Sweeney & Neely).

    You don’t have to like all of Chia’s moves to date, but I don’t think he’s been ripped off on any of them (yeah yeah Reinhart blah blah blah) and I think he’s only going to move for value.

    The Yakupov deadline drama is more of the same – real pressure to move, Yak has his bags packed, Chia doesn’t flinch if he doesn’t get the deal he wants.

    I’m not concerned about Chia getting ripped off. What is more concerning is if a “culture change” trade is made, that’s where it becomes less about value and more about simply making a change.

    If Hall gets traded and it’s not for one of the top d-men in the league, is it possible that he really is part of the problem in the locker room and he just wants out? And by “problem”, I mean a highly competitive, passionate player who has had to endure 6 years as a POW in a Viet Cong camp.

  7. Woodguy says:

    It would take a massive return. I have said, and remain convinced, the defenseman who would be required to acquire Taylor Hall is not in play. Players of this value don’t get traded, unless there is a lot of crazy in the front office.

    *whew*

    Glad the crazy has stopped.

    There was a rumour that Eakins was clashing with Hall and MacT was starting to back Eakins in that fight.

    Then MacT got told to fire Eakins.

    Then the Oilers won the McDavid sweepstakes. McDavid is represented by the same agency as Hall.

    Then 6 days later Chiarelli is being introduced as the new President and GM of the Oilers.

    This jibes with Dreger saying:

    “But when I approached the Edmonton Oilers near the trade deadline – and we’re talking about not just Peter Chiarelli, but those above him ”

    Bob Nicholson and Chiarelli aren’t dumb.

    That’s a relief.

  8. dustrock says:

    Regarding Draisaitl, he’s definitely taken some knocks in the 2nd half of the year, and I think that means the other teams are realizing he’s a real threat.

    Wouldn’t a “Occam’s Razor” answer simply be that teams realized Draisaitl is legit, he wasn’t sheltered at all (quite the opposite), and the opposing D tightened up on him?

  9. Woodguy says:

    Wyndi: If I’m Peter Chiarelli I’m calling Joe Sakic on the regular. They seem like an organization that could be taken advantage of.

    I’m also calling by buddy Jim Benning everyday and talking Tanev.

  10. dustrock says:

    Woodguy,

    If Hall could get you Karlsson or Subban, would you do it? Both Ottawa and Montreal seem like they’re a little bit crazy.

    Obviously I would prefer a package of anyone not named McDavid or Hall, but I wonder. If Melnyk goes crazy and thinks the Captain Erik Karlsson is part of the problem, does Chia use his Ottawa connections and do the unthinkable?

  11. Clay says:

    Woodguy:
    It would take a massive return. I have said, and remain convinced, the defenseman who would be required to acquire Taylor Hall is not in play. Players of this value don’t get traded, unless there is a lot of crazy in the front office.

    *whew*

    Glad the crazy has stopped.

    That’s a relief.

    I don’t know if I’d be too relieved yet. The key statement is “it would take massive return”, and one man’s “massive” is another man’s “what the f**k?”.

    As long as MacT et al have the ability to whisper into important ears, I won’t be too comfortable.

  12. vinotintazo says:

    Clay:
    Please Baby Jebus, all I ask is for a healthy, 75+ game season next year for Klef, Davidson, Sekera, at least one of the 2 RHD brought in, plus Hall, RNH, Drai, and McD.

    Please please please, Amen.

    I just want to see what we’ve actually got here.

    Amen.

  13. Woodguy says:

    In terms of developing prospects, I wrote this in last nights thread and I think its relevant today, so I’m re-posting it.:

    Lowetide,

    Part of that comes from drafting, but a lot of it—in my opinion—comes from too many at-bats loaned out to AHL veterans. The skilled Condors were mostly those vets, and for me that speaks to extremely poor development. Hey, maybe I am wrong about this, but when I look at the top of the division and the Texas Stars, there are a couple of older gents and several miles of prospects.

    This cannot be over-stated enough.

    The usual reasoning given for putting AHL vets in the key offensive spots (and the PP time that goes with it) is “we want our prospects to develop winning habits/play on winning teams”

    That line of reasoning is, in my opinion, utter bullshit.

    Prospects are there to learn to play the pro game and the single most important thing you can do is play them.

    The team’s record really doesn’t matter for development.

    Time on ice matters for development.

    Here is the “poster-boy” team for my argument: The 2012/13 Norfolk Admirals who missed the playoffs that year.

    Here are their top 10 scorers along with their ages to start that season:

    Patrick Maroon 24
    Sami Vatanen 21
    Peter Holland 21
    Devante Smith-Pelly 20
    Kyle Palmieri 21
    Nate Guenin 29
    Chris Wagner 21
    Josh Brittain 22
    Luca Caputi 23
    Emerson Etem 20

    Here’s those same player and how they got to the ANA organization:

    Patrick Maroon 2007 6th rounder – traded from PHI
    Sami Vatanen 2009 4th rounder
    Peter Holland 2009 1st rounder 15th overall
    Devante Smith-Pelly 2010 2nd rounder
    Kyle Palmieri 2009 1st rounder 26th overall
    Nate Guenin NHL/AHL vet (who revived his career)
    Chris Wagner 2010 5th rounder
    Josh Brittain 2008 3rd rounder
    Luca Caputi 2007 4th rounder traded from PIT to TOR to ANA
    Emerson Etem 2009 1st rounder 29th overall

    Here’s how many NHL games those players have played since that year:

    Patrick Maroon 216
    Sami Vatanen 193
    Peter Holland 191
    Devante Smith-Pelly 161
    Kyle Palmieri 267
    Nate Guenin 173
    Chris Wagner 48
    Josh Brittain 0
    Luca Caputi 0
    Emerson Etem 166

    Looks like the losing really took its toll on these players eh?

    As far as the NHL team is concerned, the AHL team is there for three reasons.

    1) At bats
    2) TOI
    3) Experience playing the goddam game and not watching it from the bench while 28 year olds play on the 1st until powerplay

  14. Woodguy says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy,

    If Hall could get you Karlsson or Subban, would you do it?Both Ottawa and Montreal seem like they’re a little bit crazy.

    Obviously I would prefer a package of anyone not named McDavid or Hall, but I wonder.If Melnyk goes crazy and thinks the Captain Erik Karlsson is part of the problem, does Chia use his Ottawa connections and do the unthinkable?

    I would for Karlsson. He’ll drive play for multiple lines for 25 minutes a night.

    Subban does the same, but that contract is MASSIVE. $9MM limits what you can do. I’d have to think long and hard about it.

  15. dustrock says:

    The damnable injuries royally screwed our evaluation year. We lost half a year of McDavid and really an entire season of our full roster.

    This puts Chiarelli into a difficult spot because patience and “the right deal” are really the keys here, but I wonder if Katz gets shifty and then Chia is forced into a move.

    If you sign a Demers and that’s the only move you make, are you comfortable with another evaluation year?

  16. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: I would for Karlsson.He’ll drive play for multiple lines for 25 minutes a night.

    Subban does the same, but that contract is MASSIVE.$9MM limits what you can do.I’d have to think long and hard about it.

    Sure but if you’re trading Hall, it’s actually only $3M more. And Subban plays enough to save money on your depth defensemen.

    (Not that this trade would actually happen)

  17. dustrock says:

    Woodguy: I would for Karlsson.He’ll drive play for multiple lines for 25 minutes a night.

    Subban does the same, but that contract is MASSIVE.$9MM limits what you can do.I’d have to think long and hard about it.

    Yeah, the Subban contract is one reason why one of the $6million men would have to go (beyond value).

    If Montreal wants Eberle and Nurse/Klefbom, maybe that helps them more. Not really sure what they need but I look at their roster and see Price and Subban and not a whole lot else.

  18. dustrock says:

    wheatnoil: Sure but if you’re trading Hall, it’s actually only $3M more. And Subban plays enough to save money on your depth defensemen.

    (Not that this trade would actually happen)

    We don’t have playoffs to look forward to, so now it’s all speculation about the draft and what, if any changes might be made.

    I’m just messing around with what a trade for Hall might actually look like. 🙂

    And I’ve seen Karlsson and Subban both criticized way too much this year, so out of the defencemen we’d actually want in a trade for one of our stars, why not these guys?

    I like to imagine the internet (or even just HF Boards) blowing up when the Oilers get Matthews and then trade Hall for Karlsson. ha ha ha

  19. slopitch says:

    Woodguy: I’m also calling by buddy Jim Benning everyday and talking Tanev.

    I want to see where the Oilers pick ends up. If its #2 Id have a real hard time moving Laine.

    But that said, Tanev+Van #1 for Oilers #1 + x is interesting. I like Tanev plenty.

  20. Fog of Warts says:

    Our brains are wired to shuffle the human deck until something works, to lock the “solution” into place, and then to get stubborn and stick with it long after the glory days are a distant memory.

    What else can hairy primates do when comprehension hasn’t been invented yet? Our political shuffle-deck instinct runs deep.

    Generally the people who howl loudest for deck shuffling are those with the least clue how to patiently increment. What’s a bad outcome for this group? To have the management team completely ignore all those primal howls and smoothly iterate toward success as if the howlers aren’t even there. Then the howlers look like idiots. Solution: the howlers must howl so loudly—as a group—that smooth iteration becomes impossible to contemplate. Howl until your target of derision demands a one-way ticket out of town.

    Right now the howlers have more personal equity in their success as howlers than equity in near-term success of the franchise.

    In any sad story, there’s a point at which dysfunction begins to self-perpetuate. At this point, shuffling the human deck can’t possible be enough, strictly on its own terms (even if the incumbent worst humans are replaced with the incumbent best humans)—breaking out of the circular quagmire requires a simultaneous jolt of damn good luck (worse still, it’s usually impossible to entice the incumbent best humans into such a horrible situation unless a lightening bolt of good fortune has recently struck).

    Success in the NHL lives on the boundary between art and science. Art is one of those things where you know it when you see it. Corollary: you don’t know it when you don’t see it—aka time to play 52 pick-up with the human deck.

    Perhaps Renney had the art, but we just didn’t see it yet. Tell me, why did we fire Renney again? Because it was next obvious step in the plan to have five coaches in five years? Thought so. What the howlers tend to neglect is that each iteration votes the rope shorter and shorter. Soon you find the situation becoming more painful faster than the new people are becoming more better.

    The thing is, I don’t really blame these people for their inability to shut their agony holes. The NHL, like any business venture that combines greed with prestige—IOC, FIFA, need I go on—has priced their product at the pain threshold. And that’s a fact.

    You lose track of time for a few minutes, the next thing you know there’s a tow truck out on the street. You run out and gesticulate wildly—he’s only been there for a few seconds, he’s done nothing yet—but he just ignores you, and patiently goes through his whole routine.

    A few hours later you show up at the pound, the man behind the Plexiglass window looks combines the social grace of Ron Woodroof from Dallas Buyers Club with the physical grace of Rizzo from Midnight Cowboy.

    Rizzo Woodroof: You want your car? That’ll be $400.

    You: Four hundred bucks?

    Rizzo Woodroof: $200 for the tow, and another $200 watching the driver hitch.

    You: I wasn’t watching him, I was screaming at him to stop doing what he was about to do.

    Rizzo Woodroof: Same difference.

    You: [Standing there with your agony hole gaping, but barely a sound comes out.]

    Rizzo Woodroof: Do you want your car, or not?

    Well, what can you do? After you reach for the plastic? I suppose you can suck it up for a few hours, then later get real mad at someone in the spotlight you can actually fire.

    Reasons other than winning. Pass it along.

  21. speeds says:

    slopitch,

    I’d be pretty surprised if they’d move 2OV barring a big overpay, as the season’s gone on and Laine’s continued to look pretty strong. I think they’d move Eberle before 2OV barring a huge difference in the quality of D you could get – and even then, Laine might be too good a stylistic fit for them to move.

  22. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Oscar Klefbom has 107 career games.
    Thank Gord Dmen develop in a straight line or we’d be up shit creek counting on him being an elite top 4 option for next season.

  23. slopitch says:

    speeds:
    slopitch,

    I’d be pretty surprised if they’d move 2OV barring a big overpay, as the season’s gone on and Laine’s continued to look pretty strong. I think they’d move Eberle before 2OV barring a huge difference in the quality of D you could get – and even then, Laine might be too good a stylistic fit for them to move.

    Pretty much said the same. Id only entertain that if its #3. I wouldnt move Laine.

  24. blainer says:

    dustrock: Yeah, the Subban contract is one reason why one of the $6million men would have to go (beyond value).

    If Montreal wants Eberle and Nurse/Klefbom, maybe that helps them more.Not really sure what they need but I look at their roster and see Price and Subban and not a whole lot else.

    I do wonder about Montreal and Ottawa as well. I could see a big trade of maybe Drai Ebs Yak Nurse and Reinhart going to either of those teams.

    I can see this happening on the oilers side if they can get either Backes or Stamkos.

    Ottawa does not have much going on in their pipeline so Nurse Reinhart Yak and Drai would be an attractive package.

    Of course though the odds of this happening are extremely low but boy that would be a BOLD move !!

  25. RJ2016 says:

    Chiarelli has been “evaluating” this team for a full season, as has MacLellan. They know who fits with the style they want to play. They know who doesn’t. They should have identified trade targets and had preliminary discussions with other teams to determine the cost of acquisition.

    If the acquisition cost requires trading a fan favorite (like Nuge or Eberle), then they have a challenge. If you wanted to move a $6m player, then the game against the Flames was a godsend. McLellan gets to come out and rip his team’s compete level, etc. A blue-collar fan base like Edmonton will also take offence to the cardinal sins “lack of pride” and “failing to give their best efforts” when they’re all highly paid professionals. You have fan buy-in that moves need to be made.

    What people are seeing as reactionary looks more like proactive management of stakeholders objections against a unpopular decision. “Yes, it is unpopular, but it needed to be done for best interests of the team.”

  26. Truth says:

    Woodguy:
    In terms of developing prospects, I wrote this in last nights thread and I think its relevant today, so I’m re-posting it.:

    Lowetide,

    Part of that comes from drafting, but a lot of it—in my opinion—comes from too many at-bats loaned out to AHL veterans. The skilled Condors were mostly those vets, and for me that speaks to extremely poor development. Hey, maybe I am wrong about this, but when I look at the top of the division and the Texas Stars, there are a couple of older gents and several miles of prospects.

    This cannot be over-stated enough.

    The usual reasoning given for putting AHL vets in the key offensive spots (and the PP time that goes with it) is “we want our prospects to develop winning habits/play on winning teams”

    That line of reasoning is, in my opinion, utter bullshit.

    Prospects are there to learn to play the pro game and the single most important thing you can do is play them.

    The team’s record really doesn’t matter for development.

    Time on ice matters for development.

    The only issue with this is if it contradicts the theory that players should have to earn their ice time and internal competition is good for development. The recent Oiler draft picks are getting outscored by guys like Ford, Winquist, Hamilton, Hunt, etc. and those players are getting the gravy minutes, no doubt. Is it because those players are simply way better than the Oilers picks?

    I haven’t watched any AHL games this season so I could not tell you if the younger prospects are given a chance to show they belong on the top line and top special teams. It is equally damaging to the prospect to get blown up on top line duty every game when the player himself knows there are better players on the team playing below him in the depth chart than it is for them to not get the gravy minutes.

    I can envision management signing guys like Ford, Hamilton, and Hunt as players to fill out the roster only and to play complimentary minutes on the team. The problem is when the supposed NHL prospects aren’t good enough to outplay the guys the Oilers sign just as roster fillers. Is the solution to then try to find AHL vet “roster fillers” that are so bad you know they cannot outplay your prospects?

    If you want to see something depressing look at the below link. Specifically look at the second round and below. 1) How many of those players have NHL stats shown? 2) Of those that do have over 100 NHL games, in which organization have they played those NHL games.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005632.html

    From the 2000 draft to the 2013 Draft the Oilers drafted 19 players in the second round or later that have played in the NHL for 100 games or more.

    Names of players drafted by the Oilers in the 2nd round or later that played the majority games with the Oilers:
    Markanen
    Stortini
    Jacques
    Reddox
    Peckham
    Petry (not for long)
    Marincin (not for long)
    Lander

    8 out of 19 they have held on to long enough to play 100 games and the two potential bright spots they traded for peanuts.

    Out of the eleven remaining names (drafted in the 2nd round or later and played 100 games or more in NHL, but majority on another team) the highlights include Stoll, Greene, Brodziak, Reider, Nash, and Vandevelde. It will soon include Marincin and Petry.

    Quite simply, this organization has long been horrible at drafting, horrible at developing their prospects, and horrible at assessing and managing their assets This could very well be a coincidence, and the reasoning for posting this isn’t to dump on Lowe, but he was appointed GM of the Oilers on June 9, 2000, and hasn’t gone anywhere (but up) since.

  27. blainer says:

    speeds:
    slopitch,

    I’d be pretty surprised if they’d move 2OV barring a big overpay, as the season’s gone on and Laine’s continued to look pretty strong. I think they’d move Eberle before 2OV barring a huge difference in the quality of D you could get – and even then, Laine might be too good a stylistic fit for them to move.

    No way I would be trading the pick if it is top two. We have established players we can move. I am game for trading anything below the top two picks.

    I really do not want to win the lottery. I would be very happy with the 2nd overall pick. Jeebus though it would not surprise me if Laine went 1st.

  28. Younger Oil says:

    This may not be a popular opinion, but what I’d do is trade some of our “high end” D prospects for more established defenders. I just don’t trust the organization at all to develop defenders properly with their handling of Schultz and now Nurse, and would prefer a complete developed defender right now.

    Our 1st + Reinhart for Van 1st + Tanev

    Nurse + Middle pick/prospect for Hamonic

    Draft Chychrun to get a good LHD prospect for the future and TAKE YOUR TIME WITH HIM.

    Klefbom-Hamonic
    Sekera-Tanev
    Davidson-Fayne

  29. Klam says:

    Re AHL Vets
    I think you need one or two guys that are vets that hold the room accountable. The coaching staff and new guys revolving through might not always be there to keep focus and help them understand the training, and process to be a good pro. Anything more than that and I think you are hurting the NHL team.

    Hunt is a great example of this. Just not good enough for the NHL but scores well in the AHL. To me that is the wrong guy to keep in the AHL. The guy to keep needs to calm things down, fight a little if things get out of hand, but let the at bats on the PP be the guys that show promise. Its all about getting that experience so you can take the game to the next level. Poise, vision, balls of steel only come from being in those situations and learning.

    Just think though Kevin “I have 6 rings” Lowe dismantled any chance to have a good farm and only after OKC and now Bakersfield have been up and running do we have a good farm to get the cream to the top. Now the key is to keep feeding some organic milk so we can get some cream.

  30. dustrock says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Oscar Klefbom has 107 career games.
    Thank Gord Dmen develop in a straight line or we’d be up shit creek counting on him being an elite top 4 option for next season.

    Yeah, he’s missed basically one entire development year as a prospect and now another 1/2 year of development in the NHL. Wonder where he’d be without the injuries.

  31. Water Fire says:

    Not a popular opinion I’ll bet but for 9M I want a rock solid player. PK has way too much chaos for me using that much cap.

  32. Bad Seed says:

    Water Fire,

    How palatable would he be to you if Mtl held back $1.5-$2M salary?

  33. Woodguy says:

    Truth,

    The recent Oiler draft picks are getting outscored by guys like Ford, Winquist, Hamilton, Hunt, etc. and those players are getting the gravy minutes, no doubt. Is it because those players are simply way better than the Oilers picks?

    27 and 28 year olds will *always* outscore 20 and 21 year olds who are new to pro hockey.

    They just will.

    You have to play your kids if you want to develop them.

    You can gift ice time at the AHL level so you don’t have to gift it at the NHL level.

  34. rickithebear says:

    Tanev is a top 30 HSCA60 D.
    Good luck!

  35. dustrock says:

    Woodguy,

    Was there ever an indication of trying to sell the team to the community, i.e. going to Bakersfield and trying to get a successful team to ensure some kind of decent attendance?

    Not saying they should be doing that with the veteran plugs, just wonder if that was discussed.

  36. kinger_OIL says:

    – A smart GM would build the D with lots of redundancies:
    a) Only one of Davidson or Klef will progress from where were last year, we can’t count on both
    b) Nurse is at best our 6D, and we need a vet, Fayne or better to pair with him
    c) Griff should play max half season in NHL after more AHL seasoning
    d) Pardy/Gryba are good depth D, sitting in press box a lot next year

    – Plan for the worst, build D roster with that viewpoint, and give a chance for a better outcome.

    – Count on Sek and only one of Klef/Davidson in top-4

    – Put Nurse in bottom pairing with Fayne or better, and give Griff the chance to move up if Nurse sh%ts bed, and find pros like Gryba/Pardy who can actually play a bit of NHL D.

    – Don’t put Nurse/Davidson/Griff on bottom pair and have them “figure it out”. They need to play with bonafide partner, or AHL

    – You’ve got 1st round pick+ , cash, one Steve Austin and “offer sheet head fake” to get there.

    – Get part of it done in off-season, and other part trade deadline if need be.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy:
    Truth,

    The recent Oiler draft picks are getting outscored by guys like Ford, Winquist, Hamilton, Hunt, etc. and those players are getting the gravy minutes, no doubt. Is it because those players are simply way better than the Oilers picks?

    27 and 28 year olds will *always* outscore 20 and 21 year olds who are new to pro hockey.

    They just will.

    You have to play your kids if you want to develop them.

    You can gift ice time at the AHL level so you don’t have to gift it at the NHL level.

    Are the asterisks for Justin Schultz?

  38. Centre of attention says:

    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Korpikoski-Letestu-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Pakarinen-Kassian
    Gazdic-Lander-Cracknell

    New lines according to Oilers website. The band is back together, with something to prove.

  39. digger50 says:

    Zack Kassian anyone? I like him and I like what he can bring. He looks skilled at times, fast at times, tough at times. Still finding his way.

    I’m curious as to what some other thoughts are and how he might fit for next year.

    And could he be a 3C?

  40. Caramel Batman says:

    I’m not convinced Hall is in the clear.

    I also don’t like the argument that if you could get a #1D for him, you should do it. Because that’s not going to happen.

    So I’d probably trade Hall for Pietreangelo. So I call up the Blues and I suggest it, but they rightly like Pietreangelo, and so after hemming and hawing they suggest Bouwmeester. Now I’ve already reconciled myself to the idea of trading Hall, I’ve come to terms with it, and the next thing you know I’ve traded Hall and Pitlikc for Bouwmeester, Berglund, and a pick.

    That’s how this works.

    The decision to trade someone is made, consciously or not, independent of the return. It’s not a way to make a good decision but it is how decisions are made.

    So you have to decide not to trade Hall because you can’t win a Hall trade. It is obvious that I would trade him for Karlson but it is also obvious that this won’t happen. What I’d like to avoid is trading him for Tyler Myers.

  41. Halfwise says:

    We each have our favorites, and we each have our own criteria and ways of establishing the relative value of players we are familiar with. Yak is a favorite but I don’t rank him as a top player today, for example.

    I confess that for players on other teams, my main criterion is “I’ve heard of him” or “I noticed him” and I rely on others to do the heavy lifting as to who is worth what.

    The previous Oiler brain trust used demonstrably poor ways of evaluating its own players. How they arrived at values for non-Oiler players is an even deeper mystery. Maybe they were just like me. The difference is, I bet every NHL GM answered the phone when Lowe or Tambo or MacT called with a trade idea.

    So here’s the question: Do most NHL teams use consistent means of evaluating players, meaning that the trade market is reasonably efficient? Are there really outlier teams (like EDM under MacTambLowe) that can be counted on to make more bad trades than good ones?

  42. ntrprtr says:

    What is the status of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones next year? Can they turn pro and play in Bako? Are they ready to do that yet? They both had decent seasons.

    When I fall asleep at night I have visions of Hall for Ekblad dancing in my head.

  43. Yeti says:

    Fog of Warts:

    Well, what can you do?After you reach for the plastic?I suppose you can suck it up for a few hours, then later get real mad at someone in the spotlight you can actually fire.

    Reasons other than winning.Pass it along.

    Great post!

  44. russ99 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – A smart GM would build the D with lots of redundancies:
    a) Only one of Davidson or Klef will progress from where were last year, we can’t count on both
    b) Nurse is at best our 6D, and we need a vet, Fayne or better to pair with him
    c) Griff should play max half season in NHL after more AHL seasoning
    d) Pardy/Gryba are good depth D, sitting in press box a lot next year

    – Plan for the worst, build D roster with that viewpoint, and give a chance for a better outcome.

    – Count on Sek and only one of Klef/Davidson in top-4

    – Put Nurse in bottom pairing with Fayne or better, and give Griff the chance to move up if Nurse sh%ts bed, and find pros like Gryba/Pardy who can actually play a bit of NHL D.

    – Don’t put Nurse/Davidson/Griff on bottom pair and have them “figure it out”.They need to play with bonafide partner, or AHL

    – You’ve got 1st round pick+ , cash, one Steve Austin and “offer sheet head fake” to get there.

    – Get part of it done in off-season, and other part trade deadline if need be.

    Spot on. Sooooo tired of the Oilers thinking internal options are “good enough’. Would be nice to see them plan for what they have and what usualy happens for once.

  45. rickithebear says:

    Water Fire:
    Not a popular opinion I’ll bet but for 9M I want a rock solid player. PK has way too much chaos for me using that much cap.

    GF 50% of Game.
    EVp/60
    PPP/60 7 GF/60 versyus league average.
    Pk’s PP performance +1 GD last year and is on pace for +3 GD for season.

    GA 50% of Game
    HSCA/60
    PKGA
    Pk is a whole lot of Suck!

    Critical value for a Cup caliber D.
    1. Faced top top 60 comp #26 comp
    2. Top 60 HSCA/60 #58
    Ekblad
    Larsson
    Greene
    Stralman
    lovejoy
    Dumoulin
    Orpik
    Parayko
    Kulikov
    Gudbranson
    Lindholm
    Spurgeon
    Manson
    Braun
    Alzner
    Niskanen
    N. Schultz
    Hjarlmasson
    —————————————————————–the first 2 Is an Elite cup caliber Box/slot D

    3. top 30 even production #22 1.10 EVP/60
    Vlasic
    Josi
    ———————————————– first 3 base for elite Even anchor D.

    4. Top 60 PK #14
    Klefbom
    ——————————————— First 4 base for Elite Even and Defensive anchor D

    5. Top 45 PP
    No d men at this point tick all 5.

    Klima’s bucket!
    you are correct.

    D do not develop in a line.

    At the start of the year Suter and Weber ticked the first 3 boxes. Right now just one.
    If they are up and down.
    Quit pining over Klefbom .

    Up and down Development from young D.
    it is a b…….. S……… concept.
    Up and Down from D happens to best in the game.

    how old are weber and Suter.

  46. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Korpikoski-Letestu-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Pakarinen-Kassian
    Gazdic-Lander-Cracknell

    New lines according to Oilers website. The band is back together, with something to prove.

    Sweet. I’ve been wanting them back together for a while, unfortunately pouliot got hurt, which screwed with mcdavids winger.

    One last chance to play together before they are all shipped away? Lol

  47. vinotintazo says:

    rickithebear: N. Schultz

    wait what.

  48. pocession charge says:

    digger50:
    Zack Kassian anyone?I like him and I like what he can bring. He looks skilled at times, fast at times, tough at times. Still finding his way.

    I’m curious as to what some other thoughts are and how he might fit for next year.

    And could he be a 3C?

    I’d definitely look to upgrade Kassian. He doesn’t have a lot of offense, takes too many dumb penalties, and carries the risk of relapse. He doesn’t play center and isn’t a special teams player either. There are likely better and (more importantly) cheaper options.

  49. pocession charge says:

    Halfwise:

    So here’s the question: Do most NHL teams use consistent means of evaluating players, meaning that the trade market is reasonably efficient? Are there really outlier teams (like EDM under MacTambLowe) that can be counted on to make more bad trades than good ones?

    Most teams look at the junior performance of any given player to determine value. It doesn’t matter how long they have played pro hockey. This is what I’ve learned from being an Oilers fan.

  50. Woodguy says:

    Jethro Tull: Are the asterisks for Justin Schultz?

    Given that he played a lot with 3 players who played in the NHL the year previous and that one of them ended the shortened 12/13 season 6th in the NHL in 5v5 pts/60, yes he gets an asterisk.

  51. pocession charge says:

    Centre of attention:
    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Korpikoski-Letestu-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Pakarinen-Kassian
    Gazdic-Lander-Cracknell

    New lines according to Oilers website. The band is back together, with something to prove.

    Makes a lot of sense to run Pak at center because he isn’t a center. It certainly would be foolish to put Letestube at 4C and Draisaitl at 3C.

  52. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – A smart GM would build the D with lots of redundancies:
    a) Only one of Davidson or Klef will progress from where were last year, we can’t count on both
    b) Nurse is at best our 6D, and we need a vet, Fayne or better to pair with him
    c) Griff should play max half season in NHL after more AHL seasoning
    d) Pardy/Gryba are good depth D, sitting in press box a lot next year

    – Plan for the worst, build D roster with that viewpoint, and give a chance for a better outcome.

    – Count on Sek and only one of Klef/Davidson in top-4

    – Put Nurse in bottom pairing with Fayne or better, and give Griff the chance to move up if Nurse sh%ts bed, and find pros like Gryba/Pardy who can actually play a bit of NHL D.

    – Don’t put Nurse/Davidson/Griff on bottom pair and have them “figure it out”.They need to play with bonafide partner, or AHL

    – You’ve got 1st round pick+ , cash, one Steve Austin and “offer sheet head fake” to get there.

    – Get part of it done in off-season, and other part trade deadline if need be.

    Agreed all points.

    Also,

    So you have Nurse on your opening night roster?

    *ducks*

  53. Water Fire says:

    Bad Seed:
    Water Fire,

    How palatable would he be to you if Mtl held back $1.5-$2M salary?

    Puts it in the think about basket

  54. rickithebear says:

    Noted worst 20 Box/slot protection D
    #19 Faulk 12.71
    #18 Girardi 12.72
    #16 Sbisa 12.78
    #15 Streit 12.84
    #14 D. Hamilton 12.87
    #12 Wideman 12.90
    #11 Quincey 12.91
    #10 Klingberg 12.98
    #9 Gryba 13.11
    #7 E. Johnson 13.24
    #5 Hanifin 13.53
    #4 Nurse 13.79
    #3 Reinhart 13.91
    #2 Goligoski 14.05
    #1 Bartkowski 14.07

    we have 3 of the worst in the game.

  55. pocession charge says:

    blainer:

    I really do not want to win the lottery. I would be very happy with the 2nd overall pick. Jeebus though it would not surprise me if Laine went 1st.

    Auston Matthews will be drafted 1st. He’s a franchise center who is big and can score/produce offense. There is no way any team passes on this guy.

  56. AsiaOil says:

    LT said “The problem with airing your dirty laundry in public—and that is what these two days have been about—is that it reduces the value of contracts in play.”

    Sorry but no – shitting the bed on national tv for upteenth time reduces the values of contracts in play. What talking heads and bloggers say is pretty much irrelevant. What is coach supposed to do – smile and say he’s happy?

  57. who says:

    Caramel Batman:
    I’m not convinced Hall is in the clear.

    I also don’t like the argument that if you could get a #1D for him, you should do it.Because that’s not going to happen.

    So I’d probably trade Hall for Pietreangelo.So I call up the Blues and I suggest it, but they rightly like Pietreangelo, and so after hemming and hawing they suggest Bouwmeester.Now I’ve already reconciled myself to the idea of trading Hall, I’ve come to terms with it, and the next thing you know I’ve traded Hall and Pitlikc for Bouwmeester, Berglund, and a pick.

    That’s how this works.

    The decision to trade someone is made, consciously or not, independent of the return.It’s not a way to make a good decision but it is how decisions are made.

    So you have to decide not to trade Hall because you can’t win a Hall trade.It is obvious that I would trade him for Karlson but it is also obvious that this won’t happen.What I’d like to avoid is trading him for Tyler Myers.

    Hey now. What’s wrong with Tyler Myers, other than the hip surgery of course.

  58. Adam Wu says:

    Jethro Tull: Are the asterisks for Justin Schultz?

    Schultz was also, what, 22 or 23 that year in OKC. So not at 20-21 year old….

  59. rickithebear says:

    Nicjk SchultZ HSCA/60
    09-10 MIN 9.36
    11-12 EDM 9.57 No J. schultz
    15-16 PHI 9.89
    08-09 MIN 10.16
    14-15 PHI 10.80
    10-11 MIN 10.86
    —————————————-
    13-14 EDM 11.59 W/ J. schultz
    11-12 MIN 11.68
    12-13 EDM 13.49 w/ J. Schultz

    Yes N. Schultz!

  60. rickithebear says:

    If we win the lottery:
    we pick Austin Mathews:

    Our depth at C Mcdavid; RNH; Draistl; Mathews.

    Centers need protecting for 2017 EXP draft:
    RNH;Draisatl;

    Centers need protecting for 2018 EXP draft.
    RNH; Draisatl; Mcdavid

  61. Pajamah says:

    rickithebear:
    Noted worst 20 Box/slot protection D
    #19 Faulk 12.71
    #18 Girardi 12.72
    #16 Sbisa 12.78
    #15 Streit 12.84
    #14 D. Hamilton 12.87
    #12 Wideman 12.90
    #11 Quincey 12.91
    #10 Klingberg 12.98
    #9 Gryba 13.11
    #7 E. Johnson 13.24
    #5 Hanifin 13.53
    #4 Nurse 13.79
    #3 Reinhart 13.91
    #2 Goligoski 14.05
    #1 Bartkowski 14.07

    we have 3 of the worst in the game.

    Goligoski, Klingberg, Hamilton, and Justin Faulk are bad D.

    Is that what I am to infer?

  62. Ducey says:

    Pajamah: Goligoski, Klingberg, Hamilton, and Justin Faulk are bad D.

    Is that what I am to infer?

    Its proven! One stat tells all!

  63. blackadder says:

    Not a scientific process by any means, but if you look at the top 5 scorers on the Oilers top minor league team, over the last 3 years, only 3 of 15 were 22 years or younger. The last time OKC had more than two top scorers was in 2013′ however three of the top 5 scorers that year were Hall, Eberle and Schultz (players that, once the lockout was over, were replaced by 30+ players like Cheechoo and Josh Green).

    Young players cannot develop if they don’t play.

  64. Pajamah says:

    Ducey: Its proven!One stat tells all!

    Its infuriating.

    It’s not some sort of deep insight, its one facet of being a defenseman. Plenty of good D on that list, and plenty of terrible d-men on the low HDSCA/60 list. Its not predictive or insightful. Its maddening

    I feel like I am taking crazy pills.

    Further Edit: It was funny seeing the connection between the Kings and “1st assist” comparisons as well.

    A team who has won 2 cups in the last 5 seasons, and generally leads the league in possession statistics. But they don’t get primary assists, so therefore their D isn’t very good.

    Ugh.

  65. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Thanks for that….know it when you see it.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    blackadder: Young players cannot develop if they don’t play.

    Sather Wannabes Kevin Lowe+MacT know enough about the Dynasty Times: therefore they are cheerfully able to let rookies and other youth wither and bust, secure and safe in the knowledge that Messier and Kurri prefer those trade deadline steals that Slat’s was incredible at making…

    …Why they even nearly pulled it off with CFP in 06 but instead together they woke up lying on the floor next to Chiarelli’s gift: a consolation pumpkin.

    Currently worryingly for the OBC; Katz’s Opening night at the Ice Palace looking more likely less glorious than previously sold to Tier 1 Fans.

  67. Factotum says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Brilliant. Tip of the hat once again, sir.

  68. Woodguy says:

    ?
    Klam,

    I agree that you need AHL vets.

    I just don’t have them dominating the TOI and PP.

  69. Woodguy says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy,

    Was there ever an indication of trying to sell the team to the community, i.e. going to Bakersfield and trying to get a successful team to ensure some kind of decent attendance?

    Not saying they should be doing that with the veteran plugs, just wonder if that was discussed.

    I have no idea.

    Bakersfield supported their ECHL team very well, often out – drawing AHL teams (including playoff bound Oil Barons in OKC)

    California has some pretty good hockey markets these days.

  70. natejax97 says:

    Hey LT…just wondering if you would ever consider doing a lineup comparison from Playoff 2006 to Oilers 2016. I would be very interested in your analysis of the positions and the current players holding them vs those in 2006..

    It just seems to me on paper that the forward group we deploy incinerates that of a playoff, Stanley cup finalist team. I think I would really like the analysis on the defensive core and what they brought to the table back then and maybe what we need today to stiffen that area up.

    Would be a fun thing to have on the chat line and help kill some time before April 30th…I was a big Pisani fan, as well I think Rafi Torres really did his job well on that run.

    Anyways, just asking…thanks!

  71. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I’d avoid trading him for Pietrangelo too.

    His play has really fallen off the past few years.

    He’s a “good” top pairing Dman, but not someone I’d trade Hall for.

  72. Woodguy says:

    I was listening to Bob McKenzie yesterday on a Toronto TSN station and they were discussing the Oilers and 4,14,93.

    They were discussing possible trade scenarios and Bob added “maybe they trade two of them for a really, really good Dman”

    I wonder if Chia’s been kicking tires on Karlsson?

  73. Woodguy says:

    pocession charge: Most teams look at the junior performance of any given player to determine value.It doesn’t matter how long they have played pro hockey.This is what I’ve learned from being an Oilers fan.

    That and Stevie Y’s opinion of him.

  74. dustrock says:

    Woodguy:
    I was listening to Bob McKenzie yesterday on a Toronto TSN station and they were discussing the Oilers and 4,14,93.

    They were discussing possible trade scenarios and Bob added “maybe they trade two of them for a really, really good Dman”

    I wonder if Chia’s been kicking tires on Karlsson?

    So maybe I’m not as crazy as my wife says after all?

  75. dustrock says:

    Winston Churchill or Todd McLellan:

    “This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless, by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.”

  76. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman,

    “So I’d probably trade Hall for Pietreangelo. So I call up the Blues and I suggest it, but they rightly like Pietreangelo, and so after hemming and hawing they suggest Bouwmeester. Now I’ve already reconciled myself to the idea of trading Hall, I’ve come to terms with it, and the next thing you know I’ve traded Hall and Pitlikc for Bouwmeester, Berglund, and a pick.”

    In this scenario is Chiarelli under some form of mind control? Hypnosis maybe?

  77. blackadder says:

    Chachi,

    A Jedi mind trick? “Pietrangelo is not the defenceman you’re looking for.”

  78. G Money says:

    Woodguy: You can gift ice time at the AHL level so you don’t have to gift it at the NHL level.

    More specifically, the AHL is a developmental league and the NHL is not. So you gift time at the AHL level but require it be earned at the NHL level.

    That the Oilers have a history of gifting time at the NHL level and forcing young players to earn it at the AHL level is just one of the many ways in which dysfunction is embedded in the organization.

  79. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    Noted worst 20 Box/slot protection D
    #19 Faulk 12.71
    #18 Girardi 12.72
    #16 Sbisa 12.78
    #15 Streit 12.84
    #14 D. Hamilton 12.87
    #12 Wideman 12.90
    #11 Quincey 12.91
    #10 Klingberg 12.98
    #9 Gryba 13.11
    #7 E. Johnson 13.24
    #5 Hanifin 13.53
    #4 Nurse 13.79
    #3 Reinhart 13.91
    #2 Goligoski 14.05
    #1 Bartkowski 14.07

    we have 3 of the worst in the game.

    I use HSCA quite a bit. I like it for measuring a players value. But like all on ice differentials, HSCA is less influenced by the player himself and more influenced by other factors such as

    *is the team said player playing on a good team/bad team?
    *does his team play in a high event system?
    *is the player playing with good players?
    *what level of competition is he playing against?

    Using only HSCA without any context is not a proper determination in how good/bad a defenseman is

    If a player and not the team heavily influenced the HSCA number, we would not see wild swings in HSCA numbers when players get traded or signed by different teams.

    But here are some examples where there are wild swings from some players when switching teams.

    Player_HSCA/60__TEAM___SEASON

    Mark.Fayne 6.62 N.J 20122013
    Mark.Fayne 6.51 N.J 20132014
    Mark.Fayne 11.57 EDM 20142015
    Mark.Fayne 12.07 EDM 20152016

    Fayne has one of the lowest HSCA in the league while playing top pairing with Greene in NJ who were low event team. But on the Oilers who are a high event team, his HSCA numbers do not even show close to league average.

    Beauchemin 9.58 ANA 20142015
    Beauchemin 13.06 COL 20152016

    Just like Fayne, Beauchemin goes from a low event team to a high event team and the numbers show. Age could be a factor as well, here, though.

    Hamilton 10.46 BOS 20142015
    Hamilton 12.77 CGY 20152016

    Like Fayne, Hamilton went from a lower event team to a high event team.

    Yandle 13.7 ARI 20142015
    Yandle 8.2 NYR 20142015
    Yandle 10.65 NYR 20152016

    Yandle goes from playing on a bad team to a decent team and is more sheltered.

    Jeff.Petry 12.33 EDM 20132014
    Jeff Petry 11.7 EDM 20142015
    Jeff.Petry 9.81 MTL 20152016

    Petry goes from a high event team playing top competition to a not so high event team and playing 2nd comp.

    Seth.Jones 8.77 NSH 20142015
    Seth.Jones 8.3 NSH 20152016
    Seth.Jones 14.1 CBJ 20152016

    Jones goes from the lowest event team while playing 2nd and 3rd comp to a team that is high event where he plays top pairing.

    To put it plainly, HSCA is like any other metric; corsi, fenwick, scoring chances etc, there are 9 other skaters on the ice plus 2 goalies that also figure in producing numbers good or bad. An on ice metric such as HSCA is more influenced by the team he plays on and against and less so by the player.

    That’s why good players on bad teams/high event teams can be shown in a bad light when just looking at HSCA. Moderate to bad players on low event teams can be shown in a good light when just looking at HSCA.

  80. dustrock says:

    http://www.fearthefin.com/2011/6/24/2242966/san-jose-trades-devin-setoguchi-charlie-coyle-and-first-round-pick-to

    Want a fun read? Here’s the Fear the Fin thread from when San Jose traded Setoguchi, Coyle and a first round pick for one year of Mr. Brent Burns. One year.

  81. Woodguy says:

    G Money: More specifically, the AHL is a developmental league and the NHL is not.So you gift time at the AHL level but require it be earned at the NHL level.

    That the Oilers have a history of gifting time at the NHL level and forcing young players to earn it at the AHL level is just one of the many ways in which dysfunction is embedded in the organization.

    The Edmonton Oilers.

    The George Costanza of NHL player development.

  82. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: I use HSCA quite a bit.I like it for measuring a players value.But like all on ice differentials, HSCA is less influenced by the player himself and more influenced by other factors such as

    *is the team said player playing on a good team/bad team?
    *does his team play in a high event system?
    *is the player playing with good players?
    *what level of competition is he playing against?

    Using only HSCA without any context is not a proper determination in how good/bad a defenseman is

    If a player and not the team heavily influenced the HSCA number, we would not see wild swings in HSCA numbers when players get traded or signed by different teams.

    But here are some examples where there are wild swings from some players when switching teams.

    Player_HSCA/60__TEAM___SEASON

    Mark.Fayne 6.62 N.J 20122013
    Mark.Fayne 6.51 N.J 20132014
    Mark.Fayne 11.57 EDM 20142015
    Mark.Fayne 12.07 EDM 20152016

    Fayne has one of the lowest HSCA in the league while playing top pairing with Greene in NJ who were low event team.But on the Oilers who are a high event team, his HSCA numbers do not even show close to league average.

    Beauchemin 9.58 ANA 20142015
    Beauchemin 13.06 COL 20152016

    Just like Fayne, Beauchemin goes from a low event team to a high event team and the numbers show.Age could be a factor as well, here, though.

    Hamilton 10.46 BOS 20142015
    Hamilton 12.77 CGY 20152016

    Like Fayne, Hamilton went from a lower event team to a high event team.

    Yandle13.7 ARI 20142015
    Yandle 8.2 NYR 20142015
    Yandle 10.65 NYR 20152016

    Yandle goes from playing on a bad team to a decent team and is more sheltered.

    Jeff.Petry 12.33 EDM 20132014
    Jeff Petry 11.7 EDM 20142015
    Jeff.Petry 9.81 MTL 20152016

    Petry goes from a high event team playing top competition to a not so high event team and playing 2nd comp.

    Seth.Jones 8.77 NSH 20142015
    Seth.Jones 8.3 NSH 20152016
    Seth.Jones 14.1 CBJ 20152016

    Jones goes from the lowest event team while playing 2nd and 3rd comp to a team that is high event where he plays top pairing.

    To put it plainly, HSCA is like any other metric; corsi, fenwick, scoring chances etc, there are 9 other skaters on the ice plus 2 goalies that also figure in producing numbers good or bad.An on ice metric such as HSCA is more influenced by the team he plays on and against and less so by the player.

    That’s why good players on bad teams/high event teams can be shown in a bad light when just looking at HSCA.Moderate to bad players on low event teams can be shown in a good light when just looking at HSCA.

    I love this post so much.

    I’m going to link to it often.

    Thanks Padre.

  83. russ99 says:

    rickithebear:
    Noted worst 20 Box/slot protection D
    #19 Faulk 12.71
    #18 Girardi 12.72
    #16 Sbisa 12.78
    #15 Streit 12.84
    #14 D. Hamilton 12.87
    #12 Wideman 12.90
    #11 Quincey 12.91
    #10 Klingberg 12.98
    #9 Gryba 13.11
    #7 E. Johnson 13.24
    #5 Hanifin 13.53
    #4 Nurse 13.79
    #3 Reinhart 13.91
    #2 Goligoski 14.05
    #1 Bartkowski 14.07

    we have 3 of the worst in the game.

    HDSP != Box/slot protection D.

    That assumes all HDSC are equal, and with the tire fire we have at forward in the D-zone, that’s not the case.

  84. RPG says:

    frjohnk,

    One of THE best comments I’ve ever seen on this blog. Very well said.

  85. Ducey says:

    RPG:
    frjohnk,

    One of THE best comments I’ve ever seen on this blog. Very well said.

    Agreed.

  86. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: I use HSCA quite a bit.I like it for measuring a players value.But like all on ice differentials, HSCA is less influenced by the player himself and more influenced by other factors such as

    *is the team said player playing on a good team/bad team?
    *does his team play in a high event system?
    *is the player playing with good players?
    *what level of competition is he playing against?

    Using only HSCA without any context is not a proper determination in how good/bad a defenseman is

    If a player and not the team heavily influenced the HSCA number, we would not see wild swings in HSCA numbers when players get traded or signed by different teams.

    But here are some examples where there are wild swings from some players when switching teams.

    Player_HSCA/60__TEAM___SEASON

    Mark.Fayne 6.62 N.J 20122013
    Mark.Fayne 6.51 N.J 20132014
    Mark.Fayne 11.57 EDM 20142015
    Mark.Fayne 12.07 EDM 20152016

    Fayne has one of the lowest HSCA in the league while playing top pairing with Greene in NJ who were low event team.But on the Oilers who are a high event team, his HSCA numbers do not even show close to league average.

    Beauchemin 9.58 ANA 20142015
    Beauchemin 13.06 COL 20152016

    Just like Fayne, Beauchemin goes from a low event team to a high event team and the numbers show.Age could be a factor as well, here, though.

    Hamilton 10.46 BOS 20142015
    Hamilton 12.77 CGY 20152016

    Like Fayne, Hamilton went from a lower event team to a high event team.

    Yandle13.7 ARI 20142015
    Yandle 8.2 NYR 20142015
    Yandle 10.65 NYR 20152016

    Yandle goes from playing on a bad team to a decent team and is more sheltered.

    Jeff.Petry 12.33 EDM 20132014
    Jeff Petry 11.7 EDM 20142015
    Jeff.Petry 9.81 MTL 20152016

    Petry goes from a high event team playing top competition to a not so high event team and playing 2nd comp.

    Seth.Jones 8.77 NSH 20142015
    Seth.Jones 8.3 NSH 20152016
    Seth.Jones 14.1 CBJ 20152016

    Jones goes from the lowest event team while playing 2nd and 3rd comp to a team that is high event where he plays top pairing.

    To put it plainly, HSCA is like any other metric; corsi, fenwick, scoring chances etc, there are 9 other skaters on the ice plus 2 goalies that also figure in producing numbers good or bad.An on ice metric such as HSCA is more influenced by the team he plays on and against and less so by the player.

    That’s why good players on bad teams/high event teams can be shown in a bad light when just looking at HSCA.Moderate to bad players on low event teams can be shown in a good light when just looking at HSCA.

    you will notice a consistent 12-15% increase in HSCA for din a EC to WC move.
    Visa Versa.

    Yet that does not cover the whole variance!
    But for rough reference it sure works!

    Now the question of are all HSCA equal?

    You are questioning weather some shot s have a better chance of going in?

    What!

    Are you suggesting there are shots in areas of space on net and areas covered by the goalie.

    I am not CLOSED to this think.
    I am quite OPEN to the idea.

    your naratibve is obvious to anyone with half a game brain.

    but of the most accurate D measure in the game.
    This is it!

    True referencial would invole graphing your low ; med; High SCA/60 relative to a amplitude based array graph for Comp; Teamates; Zone starting; open hole shot ration; Opponent open hole shot rates. caompared to groups of similar situation players and equating the performance to a goal differential affect.

    I aint doing that anymore.

    What sports did you guys play and did you use your brain while you were playing? if Frjohnk comments are new to you!

    Jesus!

    Yes john Your prose was bang on for the parts you covered.

    (High chance open hole shots/shot) is the most important of all!
    period!

  87. wheatnoil says:

    Fog of Warts,

    frjohnk,

    I am unsure which of these two comments is the best of the thread, but they are both excellent.

  88. stephen sheps says:

    wheatnoil:
    Fog of Warts,

    frjohnk,

    I am unsure which of these two comments is the best of the thread, but they are both excellent.

    There doesn’t need to be a single, objective thread-winner here. Unlike in hockey, which is decided by dumb rules and bettman points, everyone wins when we receive the gift of good writing.

    (that is to say both are fantastic posts for different reasons)

  89. kinger_OIL says:

    stephen sheps: There doesn’t need to be a single, objective thread-winner here. Unlike in hockey, which is decided by dumb rules and bettman points, everyone wins when we receive the gift of good writing.

    (that is to say both are fantastic posts for different reasons)

    – frjohnk’s Corsi rel higher, but I prefer Fog of Warts strong FF% as a better measure

  90. godot10 says:

    The GM’s who are interested in Eberle know or don’t care that he is a mediocre back checker. They care that he scores like a legit 1st line RW, and for $1.5 million less than the UFA price for a legit 1st line RW.

  91. frjohnk says:

    Well, if we are all gonna vote, I vote Fog of Warts.

    His comments are always well thought out and very unique.

    My comments are like a Jose Canseco baseball swing. When I whiff, I spin myself into the ground, my belt comes undone, my pants fall down and the ball hits me in the head. But the non zero chance I connect, it can surprising hit the upper deck ( pants may or may not fall down)

    rickithebear,

    My RICKITHEBEAR FOR/60 min is a lot higher than my RICKITHEBEAR AGAINST/60 min

    I always enjoy your posts.

  92. Chachi says:

    blackadder:
    Chachi,

    A Jedi mind trick?“Pietrangelois not the defenceman you’re looking for.”

    Ha! Chiarelli attempts to trade Taylor Hall for Pietrangelo, but is jedi mind-tricked into flipping him to Buffalo for Carlo Colaiacovo.

  93. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy:
    I was listening to Bob McKenzie yesterday on a Toronto TSN station and they were discussing the Oilers and 4,14,93.

    They were discussing possible trade scenarios and Bob added “maybe they trade two of them for a really, really good Dman”

    I wonder if Chia’s been kicking tires on Karlsson?

    I had a chat with a buddy from Ottawa about the possibility of Karlsson. Because let’s face it – Ottawa ain’t anywhere near the cup.

    RNH + the 1st rd pick + Reinhart is a healthy offer that doesn’t impair the Oilers but offers a substantial return to Ottawa.

  94. delooper says:

    I’ve asked this question before but barring something really unusual, isn’t man games lost to injury primarily an indicator of a team that lacks the confidence that it can win games?

    I don’t know if there’s any truth to the above statement but I kind of suspect it’s true. If you’re making a good salary and you feel your team-mates aren’t ready or willing to put in the effort to win games, I imagine there’s a little part of most people’s brain that says “these people aren’t worth the effort. Let’s just let an injury happen and roll with it.”

    It’s difficult for me to put my feet in the shoes of multi-millionaire sports players. But when I play beer-league hockey with guys I’m having trouble liking, I can feel the pull of “nobody else backchecks, why should I bail him out, **again**?”

  95. dustrock says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Great post. Couple of comments:

    (1) I do think Lowe and Tambellini completely thought they could tank the team for a few seasons and then it would be easy for everything to go right and turn the team around.

    (2) LT might be right about calls coming from inside the house, but we’re stuck, if we’re lucky, reading the police reports from the crime scene in the house, or more likely reading the one paragraph newspaper article about the crime scene.

    We don’t have a great deal of “inside” information. We don’t know what the locker room looks like this year.

    (3) In professional sports, the successful teams make it look so easy to succeed, year after year, and the terrible teams look like a path to success might as well be superstring theory.

    At least they have added Chiarelli and McLellan, two people from successful organizations. Will they be able to find a path to success? I’m not sure. But if they don’t, it might not be their fault.

    It might not be anyone’s fault.

  96. striker says:

    Lyon to Flyers

  97. dustrock says:

    Good move by the Flyers.

  98. John Chambers says:

    dustrock: Fog

    My read is if they had a healthy defense and 20 more games of McDavid, then the talk of the year becomes about how they improved 20 points year over year, and are a right-shot defenseman away from being a playoff contender.

    Unfortunately this season was ultimately about riding out bad contracts, injuries, some added muscle, and some professional and systems development, but still leaves our core players frustrated and undervalued.

    By adding a couple of top-4 D, a solid backup, and by staying healthy this team can improve 20 points over this year’s finish.

  99. Bank Shot says:

    G Money: More specifically, the AHL is a developmental league and the NHL is not.So you gift time at the AHL level but require it be earned at the NHL level.

    That the Oilers have a history of gifting time at the NHL level and forcing young players to earn it at the AHL level is just one of the many ways in which dysfunction is embedded in the organization.

    22 year old Josh Winquist who doesn’t even have an NHL contract is eating the “prospects” lunches in terms of scoring in the AHL.

    Doesn’t that seem at odds to the “They won’t play the kids” narrative that keeps getting pushed out?

    I’d argue Khaira scored more this year at the AHL level than anyone except his mom would have expected him to.

    Maybe its just the case that Yakimov, Slepyshev, Platzer, and Chase just didn’t do anything with their chances.

    It’s not exactly a list of blue chip prospects that is having a hard time here. It’s a few guys drafted rounds 3-7.

    I think it’s equally likely that the lack of young guys scoring in the AHL for the Oilers is a prospects problem rather than a development problem.

  100. Oilspill says:

    Of course you would for Karlsson. Just that Ottawa would laugh in your face with that offer. A three time Norris winner for a slightly average first line forward.

    Woodguy: I would for Karlsson.He’ll drive play for multiple lines for 25 minutes a night.

    Subban does the same, but that contract is MASSIVE.$9MM limits what you can do.I’d have to think long and hard about it.

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