THERE’S A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER

Todd McLellan gets his chance with the media today (10am! It might even show up on the Lowdown!) and I imagine we will hear some encouraging words about the future. I have to say that Peter Chiarelli did a good job yesterday in terms of setting expectations—no overpromising, which can lead to under delivery. Before we move forward, let’s step back a sec and review some of what the GM said in the media avail a few hours ago.

ON THE NUGE

  • Chiarelli: “Nuge is a good player. He’s a very good two-way player. He had a tough year with injuries. I like a lot of what I saw of him. He has to improve in a number of areas but he’s young and he’s smart and he plays a good two-way game.” Source

This is important, because it shows how much value the GM puts on the player. I have been told that Chiarelli has expressed these sentiments previously, but I had not seen, read or heard them. Heartening. Even if the Nuge is dealt, and it doesn’t sound like it, PC made it clear there is a strong value on the player by this organization. Glad to see.

ON OSCAR

  • Chiarelli: “Timeline, I think if we were in the playoffs he would have been available. I basically just shut him down. I said, ‘Klef, enough. You’re probably trying too hard to come back,” and it was aggravating it a little bit. He’s going to get the proper equipment. We’ve been looking at getting the proper skate, customized, and the silver lining is he’s in terrific shape. I would anticipate him back skating in a month’s time.” Source

Chiarelli confirmed there was no long-term issues, which means two things. First, all the people who told you about cutting muscle from his leg were either making it up or talking to people who were making it up. Second, the Oilers not telling people what is going on may lead to bloodletting stories, leeches stories, dragon stories, eraserhead stories. For God sakes, be careful out there!

fayne capture

CORSI REL SINCE JANUARY 1

We talked last week about Darnell Nurse and how well he played for 11 games—before heading south as part of the ‘let’s play a bunch of people not named Mark Fayne with Reg’ portion of the year. Here is another angle: Corsi (and Rel percentage) since January 1, 2016:

  • Sekera 51.7 (+3.5)
  • Gryba 51.5 (3.0)
  • Davidson 51.3 (+1.9)
  • Fayne 49.6 (-0.1)
  • Nikitin 48.8 (-11.4)
  • Pardy 48.1 (-3.5)
  • Oesterle 48.0 (1.3)
  • Nurse 47.1 (-3.3)
  • Clendening 46.7 (-2.6)
  • Reinhart 46.0 (-3.8)

Oscar Klefbom didn’t play after January 1, but he was 50.8 (+3.5) and Sekera plus Davidson look good by the possession. Nurse? Seems to me that is an odd choice, and skipping over Mark Fayne to get there suggests Peter Chiarelli is willing to sacrifice possession for things like speed, size, aggressiveness and—if we are being fair—the possibility of a better tomorrow (should Nurse develop). Did Chiarelli make these kinds of decisions in Boston?

NURSE GOAL

SIZE

  • Chiarelli: “I like size. Especially in our division. To get out of our division you’re going to need some guys that can lean on the bigger players in L.A. and Anaheim.”

We have had this argument since before I started this blog, back to the hfboards days. I remain convinced size is a good thing—as long as the guy can play! I like Darnell Nurse as a prospect, honest. If you have read these pages since he was drafted, suspect that is fairly clear. That said, part of the balance equation is keeping young, unready players in the minors until ready.

DARNELL NURSE DID HAVE A GOOD RUN. HONEST.

NURSE SPLITS

How can the Oilers get Darnell Nurse back to those numbers? Put him on the third pairing with Brandon Davidson, and that is my guess for 2016-17. How many defensemen can a team protect and still make the postseason? Don’t know.

BRUINS 2014-15 DEFENSE (CORSI AND REL %)

  • Dougie Hamilton 54.91 (+4.72)
  • Zdeno Chara 54.21 (+3.71)
  • Torey Krug 53.12 (+2.54)
  • Matt Bartkowski 49.83 (-2.47)
  • Kevan Millar 49.81 (-3.01)
  • Adam McQuaid 49.51 (-3.01)
  • Dennis Seidenberg 48.13 (-5.74)

Hmm. Bartkowski, Miller and McQuaid are in that range (Rel %) and of course the young Oiler is just 20 and a rookie. I like Nurse, hope he has a terrific future, and I know there is exactly one person reading this (once I read it) who believes Mark Fayne  can help. That said, on the day we begin to explore the possibilities for this team (and that is today), I would like to point out that my pal Corsi and I are not happy. Not happy, at all.

I love expansion drafts. Don’t ask me why, it is such an obscure and ridiculous slice of the sports pie it is to laugh. And yet, I know things about expansion drafts (Montreal Expos took future manager Jimy Williams in their draft) no one should consider worthwhile because it is a passion.

Ed Snider’s expansion draft (along with his purchase of the Quebec Aces and previous hiring of men like Bud Poile and Keith Allen) stocked the shelves immediately and Philadelphia has enjoyed a contender pretty much since that day. Seriously. I have no connection to Ed Snider or the Flyers beyond a real and genuine respect for the accomplishments made by man and organization. Hell, the only reason Philadelphia got an NHL team was Snider’s curiosity. In a world where winning is the only thing, Ed Snider was an exceptional owner from day one. RIP.

STUPID STUPID STUPID

  • Jack Todd, Montreal Gazette: Look, I’ve defended Subban at every turn throughout his career. But if he can’t be persuaded to work within the structure of the team and the organization, maybe it’s time he and his brand were shipped to a market large enough to accommodate Planet P.K. Like Edmonton, for instance. Source

I guess P.K. Subban has some issues, based on the Jack Todd article and many other things we read out of Montreal. Folks, this is a giant opportunity. The Habs are making a big mistake here, and someone is going to get a helluva defenseman. Is Subban flawed? I guess he has some outside issues, but not everyone can be Chris Pronger!

P.K. Subban would be a perfect fit for these Edmonton Oilers. They would have to give up a mountain of assets and they would have to adjust their cap (Subban is a $9 million cap hit through 2022) to make room. That said, you make that room in a heartbeat.

  • Klefbom—Subban (!!!!)
  • Sekera—Hamonic
  • Davidson—Nurse
  • Music!

CHIARELLI’S SUMMER (CRAZY VERSION)

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (PK Subban)
  2. Scoring winger from free agency (Troy Brouwer, Kyle Okposo)
  3. Offload unwanted contracts (Lauri Korpikoski)
  4. Backup goalie (Jhonas Enroth, but may cost too much)
  5. Re-stock the system partly through college and CHL signings (Benik, but also Winquist, et al)
  6. Build up the system (especially forwards) via draft (Laine, Tyler Benson)

I have included two RWs because one assumes Subban’s price will include an Eberle or a Nuge, a Nurse or a Davidson, a pick or a pick. Seriously no idea where you start in a trade with Subban, save for the fact someone making $6 million would be heading out of town. Crazy crazy. We’ll sell you the whole seat for summer, but you will only need the edge.

ADAMS GIF

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A very fluid show today, 10 this morning TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Todd McLellan’s media avail will be carried live. Scheduled for 10, these things can and do change starting times. Stay tuned.
  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Change everywhere, including Arizona this morning. Murray out in Ottawa, rumblings in Boston, hold on to your hat!
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper and Blue plus The SuperFan. Who is heading out of Edmonton this summer? Who is coming in? Will we need a new program this fall? Sunil will also describe his lunch, suspect it will be rabbit foot but we will see.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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135 Responses to "THERE’S A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Didn’t I read somewhere that McDavid’s favorite player growing up was PK Subban? I believe he was friends with one of the younger brothers.

    One of the few assets where trading Hall is justifiable. Not ideal, but justifiable.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Didn’t I read somewhere that McDavid’s favorite player growing up was PK Subban?I believe he was friends with one of the younger brothers.

    One of the few assets where trading Hall is justifiable.Not ideal, but justifiable.

    Agreed.

  3. Skeeziks says:

    I fully agree that Subban would be an incredible acquisition for the Oilers. At the same time however, I am nervous at the thought of doing so. Why? Because when the Oilers go whale hunting it often ends in serious disappointment or the risk of over paying – by a mile. Having said this, Subban might be one of a very few where the reward may be worth the cost.

  4. OilClog says:

    Oilers do not have to trade #4 to land Subban.

    Nuge or Ebs + Letestu + Nurse.

  5. jonrmcleod says:

    Let’s say the Oilers have a chance at acquiring both Subban and Barrie. And let’s also say Subban will cost you Hall (and maybe more), and Hamonic will cost you Eberle.

    Would you rather have Hall and Hamonic or Subban and Eberle?

  6. fifthcartel says:

    NEWS 1130 Sports Verified account ‏@NEWS1130Sports 23 minutes ago
    Sources say it’s down to a shortlist including the #Canucks and Oilers for Richmond B.C native and North Dakota defenseman Troy Stecher.

  7. jonrmcleod says:

    Another hypothetical question: Would you be happy if the Oilers moved Yak, Pouliot, and Eberle and ended up with Vatanen and Hamonic?

  8. Hall Awaits says:

    To seriously acquire Subban I believe it will take:

    Nuge
    Nurse
    Yakupov

    Draisaitl could be traded to but the money just wouldn’t fit. I believe you could add Fayne and Eller in there to if you really wanted to do a blockbuster and move some cash.

  9. LMHF#1 says:

    Subban is also buddies with Eberle if I recall correctly.

    The crazy dream for me is Subban + Galchenyuk in a franchise- altering deal. You need to keep Yakupov though – that would be a real bonus – almost like acquiring another player in the deal.

  10. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Skeeziks:
    I fully agree that Subban would be an incredible acquisition for the Oilers. At the same time however, I am nervous at the thought of doing so. Why? Because when the Oilers go whale hunting it often ends in serious disappointment or the risk of over paying – by a mile. Having said this, Subban might be one of a very few where the reward may be worth the cost.

    There was this one time they went whale hunting. They picked up this tall defenseman that had a few attitude problems, he fit in well though, could shoot from the point, could skate the puck out of tourble and man could he make an outlet pass. We don’t speak his name much anymore but for one season we had ourselves a helluva whale.

    As always it depends on the final return but trading anyone not named McDavid, Talbot and possibly Klefbom for Subban accelerates the re-build instantly. The cap hit is huge but it would be worth it

  11. jake70 says:

    Little off topic. (and I know there can be Dynasty Oiler team fatigue, heck I am getting there).

    Number 35 is significant today April 11.

    35 years ago: Edmonont 6 Montreal 2 — Oilers win best of 5 opening round of playoffs 3-0.

    Gretzky with 3, Coffey, Lumley, Hagman with the others.

    And in goal, #35 Moog

    Big Big win. The rest is history (minus that Manchester thing in ’82).

  12. Feelin Saad says:

    Maloney, the GM who said he wouldn’t trade OEL for Auston Matthews… Was just relieved of duties.

    I guess you could consider him available now?

    Nuge
    Nurse
    Yakupov
    For Subban

    1st OV
    for OEL

    How would that look?

  13. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Coyotes fired Maloney

    http://www.tsn.ca/coyotes-fire-general-manager-maloney-1.469445

    Sours indicate that a power struggle was unfolding behind the scenes

  14. GCW_69 says:

    Go back to the Pronger trades as a blueprint. You need Lupul (since he was traded for Pronger twice) or equivalent, a young defender drafted in the first round, and a bunch of picks.

  15. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LMHF#1:
    Subban is also buddies with Eberle if I recall correctly.

    The crazy dream for me is Subban + Galchenyuk in a franchise- altering deal. You need to keep Yakupov though – that would be a real bonus – almost like acquiring another player in the deal.

    Galchenyuk scored 30 goals this year, so I doubt they will be moving him. I hear you though.

    Nuge + Fayne (1 m retained) and a pick for Subban would be my guess. Would be equal salary and MTL has a recent history of appreciating our under appreciated D.

  16. Water Fire says:

    Chiarelli won’t need a scouting report for PK, so if he likes him and it’s in the ether I’m sure that conversation has been broached.

    There are a lot of things that could make the cost less than it should be, it might not be too bad. I’ve voiced reservations about him in the past, but I suppose if there are players in place to allow him to be used correctly I’m in at the right price because he is a true offensive play driving defenseman, one of the few IMO. And probably some salary retained also.

    The key to usage IMO is to use PK early to really get after teams and get the lead, and have players to carry weight when those windows happen where stopping goals against is paramount – end of game etc, where you want predictable, effective defensive players, which I see as PK’s weakness.

    I don’t mean guys trapped in their end blocking shots, but cycle breaking players that can get and move the puck up ice to the right place first, before pushing for scoring chances and taking risks.

    Something like this could make players like Reinhart’s career.

  17. GCW_69 says:

    jake70:
    Little off topic. (and I know there can be Dynasty Oiler teamfatigue, heck I am getting there).

    Number 35 is significant today April 11.

    35 years ago:Edmonont 6Montreal 2—Oilers win best of 5 opening round of playoffs 3-0.

    Gretzky with 3, Coffey, Lumley, Hagman with the others.

    And in goal, #35 Moog

    Big Big win.The rest is history (minus that Manchester thing in ’82).

    Moog became my favourite a Oiler that day.

  18. Магия 10 says:

    Feelin Saad:
    Maloney, the GM who said he wouldn’t trade OEL for Auston Matthews…Was just relieved of duties.

    I guess you could consider him available now?

    Nuge
    Nurse
    Yakupov
    For Subban

    1st OV
    for OEL

    How would that look?

    LT, If you can only land one of them for forwards/picks, do you flip OEL for Subban? or Subban for OEL?. Asking for a VERy shy friend.

  19. GCW_69 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Let’s say the Oilers have a chance at acquiring both Subban and Barrie. And let’s also say Subban will cost you Hall (and maybe more), and Hamonic will cost you Eberle.

    Would you rather have Hall and Hamonic or Subban and Eberle?

    Subban and Eberle. Subban is that good.

  20. Water Fire says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Let’s say the Oilers have a chance at acquiring both Subban and Barrie. And let’s also say Subban will cost you Hall (and maybe more), and Hamonic will cost you Eberle.

    Would you rather have Hall and Hamonic or Subban and Eberle?

    I think Hall and Hamonic make the team better as a pair than PK and Eberle, especially playoff better, but not more talented.

  21. Water Fire says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Another hypothetical question: Would you be happy if the Oilers moved Yak, Pouliot, and Eberle and ended up with Vatanen and Hamonic?

    No it’s too much. Both D are limited players and each forward alone covers the trade to me.

  22. RJ2016 says:

    I know it’s a crazy version, but Islander blogs are predicting that Okposo will make above $6.5m.

    I cant see how they could afford to add Subban and Okposo.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Магия 10: LT, Ifyou can only land one of themfor forwards/picks, do you flip OEL for Subban? or Subban for OEL?. Asking for a VERy shy friend.

    You need to keep both or no deal 🙂

  24. frjohnk says:

    There are a few things that make pause about getting Subban

    -acquisition cost
    There will be quite a few suitors if Subban is on the table. They probably want a number 1 center, a good D prospect, a 1st rounder and they will get it. If we put up Draisiatl, Nurse and somehow trade down to 15th or so, that might win the bid for Subban. If its more, is it worth it to get him?

    -cap cost
    at $9M a year, as good as he is, that is not a value contract.

    -how good is he defensively?
    there was considerable push to NOT have him on the Olympic team because he was not good enough in his own end. I know for a fact that Babcock said no to putting Subban on the team.

    -how sure can we be that the issues that get him traded out of Montreal wont happen here?

    Id still inquire about him as he is an elite number 1 Dman, but there are definitely some things to consider.

  25. Snowman says:

    This summer is shaping up to be a pretty interesting one in the NHL.

    Which likely means nothing exciting happens but my the possibilities….

  26. GriffCity says:

    According to some, Subban has a terrible selfish attitude and is hated in the Montreal locker room. Like guys actually despise him. Hard to know whats rumor and whats fact, but Max Paccioretty winning the humanitarian award for the habs when Subban donated 10 mil to a children’s hospital is pretty telling.

  27. Bad Seed says:

    frjohnk,

    Good points as usual, Father,

    I think it’s because of that fat contract of his that there will be very few suitors for him. Edmonton is on a very short list of teams that have the cap room to afford him. There may be others that can fit him under the cap but have an internal cap. Plus Edmonton has a bunch of goodies to entice the Habs. I think there’s a good fit between the two.

  28. JimmyV1965 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Let’s say the Oilers have a chance at acquiring both Subban and Barrie. And let’s also say Subban will cost you Hall (and maybe more), and Hamonic will cost you Eberle.

    Would you rather have Hall and Hamonic or Subban and Eberle?

    You save about $6 mill a year with Hall and Hamonic. Love PK though. My only concern is the cap hitp. In two years we have two guys taking up $20 mill.

  29. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    RJ2016:
    I know it’s a crazy version, but Islander blogs are predicting that Okposo will make above $6.5m.

    I cant see how they could afford to add Subban and Okposo.

    I could see that.

    Big guy, skilled, not too old (27). A six year deal leaves him reasonably young at the tail end.

    This year, at least, his production was solid away from Tavares, at least in the first half of the year while I was paying attention. He wasn’t a passenger. Superior boxcars to Lucic with similar attributes over the past few years.

  30. GXL says:

    Please almighty, let the Oilers win the lottery so that we can trade the 1st overall to Phx for OEL. Answer to problem solved and we don’t have to give away Hall or Nuge. Bye-bye Maloney!

    GXL

  31. LMHF#1 says:

    frjohnk:

    -cap cost
    at $9M a year, as good as he is, that is not a value contract.

    How much is a #1D who will likely also be PPG playing with McDavid worth then?

    I’d guess around 9 mil, and that’s right now. In the future it could well be a value deal.

  32. RJ2016 says:

    I’ve mentioned this before elsewhere, but the prognosticating in Islander blogs is an Eberle/Hamonic trade, since Eberle could slot in beside Tavares at a cost less than Okposo next season.

    That seems like a good move for both teams. They’d replace Hamonic internally (Pulock).

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I could see that.

    Big guy, skilled, not too old (27). A six year deal leaves him reasonably young at the tail end.

    This year, at least, his production was solid away from Tavares, at least in the first half of the year while I was paying attention.He wasn’t a passenger.Superior boxcars to Lucic with similar attributes over the past few years.

  33. Woodguy says:

    Kevan Miller is a 6’2″ 210lb RH Dman who is UFA this summer.

    Chia signed him out of college.

    28 years old.

    Did well with Chara vs. tough and with Krug vs. 2nds.

    Chia might target him for 3RD if he has the required toughness.

    Probably cheaper than Gryba.

    No idea how he skates or moves the puck.

  34. LMHF#1 says:

    Could someone tell me why exactly they want this Troy Stecher? His stats aren’t exactly screaming ‘player’ to me.

  35. El Duderino says:

    frjohnk:
    There are a few things that make pause about getting Subban

    -acquisition cost
    There will be quite a few suitors if Subban is on the table. They probably want a number 1 center, a good D prospect, a 1st rounder and they will get it.If we put up Draisiatl, Nurse and somehow trade down to 15th or so, that might win the bid for Subban.If its more, is it worth it to get him?

    -cap cost
    at $9M a year, as good as he is, that is not a value contract.

    -how good is he defensively?
    there was considerable push to NOT have him on the Olympic team because he was not good enough in his own end.I know for a fact that Babcock said no to putting Subban on the team.

    -how sure can we be that the issues that get him traded out of Montreal wont happen here?

    Id still inquire about him as he is an elite number 1 Dman, but there are definitely some things to consider.

    The voice of sanity.

  36. who says:

    Not to throw rain on this parade but do you really see Montreal trading this player. To me that would signal a rebuild which seems a bit drastic for their situation. They have the best goalie in the world just entering his prime, why tear it down now. I think there is a lot more pressure on them to win now than there is in Edmonton.
    They definitely do not have a replacement for PK in their system and I don’t think Edmonton can offer them one so trading him to Edmonton would leave a huge hole on their blueline.

  37. Caramel Batman says:

    Because of the cap all superstars in the NHL are underpaid relative to their value.

    Subban + 1.5 M generic player + 1.5 M generic player is better than 3 x 4 M players, since the difference between the 4M player and the 1.5 M player isn’t that great.

    Subban has been criminally underrated for years. He’s the only kind of player I would trade Hall for.

    That said, if Montreal actually is dumb enough to consider trading him all you have to do is beat the other offers, and here the 9M contract actually helps, since there won’t be that many offers.

    RNH + Nurse gets in done, and that is a great trade for the Oilers.

    Then you either sign Demers, or trade Eberle for Hamonic. It’s going to be carnage out there for the mid range player without a contract, so then fill out the roster with veterans who can’t get a contract, finally use the training camp invite to good effect, and away you go.

    Finally, that would be a team to get behind. It wouldn’t have three scoring lines but so long as McClellan is the coach this team will never have three scoring lines anyway.

    My highest aspiration was Tyson Barrie. If the Oilers actually got Subban that would be unbelievable.

  38. GCW_69 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Because of the cap all superstars in the NHL are underpaid relative to their value.

    Subban + 1.5 M generic player + 1.5 M generic player is better than 3 x 4 M players, since the difference between the 4M player and the 1.5 M player isn’t that great.

    Subban has been criminally underrated for years.He’s the only kind of player I would trade Hall for.

    That said, if Montreal actually is dumb enough to consider trading him all you have to do is beat the other offers, and here the 9M contract actually helps, since there won’t be that many offers.

    RNH + Nurse gets in done, and that is a great trade for the Oilers.

    Then you either sign Demers, or trade Eberle for Hamonic.It’s going to be carnage out there for the mid range player without a contract, so then fill out the roster with veterans who can’t get a contract, finally use the training camp invite to good effect, and away you go.

    Finally, that would be a team to get behind.It wouldn’t have three scoring lines but so long as McClellan is the coach this team will never have three scoring lines anyway.

    My highest aspiration was Tyson Barrie.If the Oilers actually got Subban that would be unbelievable.

    My guess is its Nuge, Nurse and a future/conditional first rounder but not this year’s. Both Pronger trades included 1st round picks.

  39. Caramel Batman says:

    GCW_69,

    I would do that, though if the price was that high I would think the Oilers would get a prospect or pick back as well.

  40. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy,

    Miller reminds me of a poor man’s Boychuk without the shot.
    He moves the puck a bit better than McQuaid, but so does a potato.
    I think he would be a good fit as a #7 guy capable of playing on the bottom pairing.
    He has a history of shoulder troubles in his brief NHL career.
    Seems like a perfect fit for the Oilers.

  41. Caramel Batman says:

    I have to say the idea of a Subban trade makes me giddy.

    Montreal is bad because there coach is terrible at everything. Terrible at dealing with people, terrible at tactics, just terrible. Instead of recognizing this, they blame their best player who in addition to being their best player, the terrible coach happens to hate.

    This is a franchise altering moment for the Oilers.

    It is also good news that the Coyotes have lost their minds and fired a very good general manager.

  42. fifthcartel says:

    If Montreal is keeping Therrien I think there’s a reasonable chance they move Subban.

    They were really hesitant to sign him and I’m pretty sure the owner stepped in and got it done before arbitration.

    I forget where I heard it but someone mentioned how Bergevin might go to the owner and say “You make the call last time, let us do it this time”.

  43. frjohnk says:

    GCW_69: My guess is its Nuge, Nurse and a future/conditional first rounder but not this year’s. Both Pronger trades included 1st round picks.

    Wonder if Colorado would offer a package of Duchene, one of their young D men and their 1st rounder.

    They need a Dman if they end up trading Barrie.

    There will be other teams with really good offers as well.

  44. Caramel Batman says:

    frjohnk: Wonder if Colorado would offer a package of Duchene, one of their young D men and their 1st rounder.

    They need a Dman if they end up trading Barrie.

    There will be other teams with really good offers as well.

    How about Duchene, Barrie, and a first round pick? Then it would be crazy vs. crazy.

    What a shame if two bad coaches cancelled out each other’s mistakes.

  45. frjohnk says:

    Caramel Batman: How about Duchene, Barrie, and a first round pick?Then it would be crazy vs. crazy.

    What a shame if two bad coaches cancelled out each other’s mistakes.

    Those two teams could be a good fit for a huge hockey trade.

    I could see Philly putting in a good offer as well. They have been looking for a game changing Dman for quite some time and they have the assets to make a splash.

  46. misfit says:

    Montreal is more desperate for size up front than the Oilers. They’d likely want (and insist on) Draisaitl included.

    Does that change anything for you Caramel?

  47. Spoils says:

    can you imagine Yakupov putting on a Montreal Canadiens jersey, getting out there and making the kinds of regular mistakes he makes? the city would meltdown.

    maybe given how great it worked out with Petry, they will have a bias towards trading for us.

  48. Younger Oil says:

    Trying to think of a deal for Subban that would work decently well for both teams.

    1.Needs to be a $6M dollar player coming back from Edmonton.
    2. Montreal would probably want a defender back.
    3. Taking a bad contract from Montreal (Eller) may make the deal easier.
    4. The cap hit will ideally balance out for both teams.

    My best guess is Subban and Eller for $6M player+Fayne+Reinhart+picks.

    With the picks depending on which $6M player is in the deal, and not trading the 2016 1st if it is in the top two under any circumstance, unless Montreals first is coming back.

    Would then trade Nurse and a prospect/pick for Hamonic.

    This team needs to be better next year, and it is clear that the current mix isn’t working. I’m both anxious and excited for this summer.

  49. monsterbater says:

    I don’t think the Avs deal for Subban only because i think Roy and Therrien are very similar coaches and Roy would not like Subban’s “attitude”

    Just my theory anyways.

  50. mustang says:

    Subban would be ideal, I think Nuge,GR and 2nd in 2017 would be a good offer.

    Then if you could get Hamonic or Demers to round out the D things would be looking up.

  51. bbf_iii says:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/gm-don-maloney-lost-front-office-power-struggle-in-arizona/

    “Under Maloney, the Coyotes did things the right way, building up a stable of draft picks and prospects with terrific drafting and trading of veterans. But now, essentially because coach Dave Tippett won the power struggle that cost Maloney his job, the mandate will be to win immediately. “Now, they’re going to do it the stupid way,” said one NHL executive.”

    That sounds like opportunity.

  52. Caramel Batman says:

    misfit:
    Montreal is more desperate for size up front than the Oilers.They’d likely want (and insist on) Draisaitl included.

    Does that change anything for you Caramel?

    They can insist all they want but that trade is impossible for salary reasons. No one is trading for Subban without big ticket salaries going to Montreal.

    So unless you mean Eberle + Draisatl, then no, that doesn’t work for me.

  53. Acumen says:

    Younger Oil,

    Had the exact same thought process. I think I’d table something like Nuge, Reinhart, Fayne, 1st 2017 for Subban and Eller. Fayne and Eller have similar contracts and plug the holes opened up by the main pieces, Reinhart offers a young piece on D and is the type of defender the Habs tend to value, the first is my best guess at the trade-off that remains. The pick changes if they insist on Nurse, but that’s not a hill to die on.

  54. slopitch says:

    Subban would be a turning point for the franchise. Reinhart, Eberle and 2016 2nd enough? It might be.

    Klefbom-Subban(!!!)
    Sekera-Hamonic
    Nurse-Davidson
    Gryba

    Wow! If that’s the D I think we make playoffs next year.

    The holes on RW would be enormous (maybe you keep Yak?). But there are options available. Im a fan of Eriksson, Lucic and Okposo. Bidding on UFA day is a fools game. Finding someone to ride shotgun with McDavid should be easy to do without spending 5 million though.

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    mustang:
    Subban would be ideal, I think Nuge,GR and 2nd in 2017 would be a good offer.

    Then if you could get Hamonic or Demers to round out the D things would be looking up.

    The 2017 2nd goes to Boston immediately upon Oilers exercising their option to keep the 2016 2nd.

  56. Acumen says:

    Also, the Stecher item is very encouraging. Right handed D, fully developed prospect, great program, free acquisition, and the scouting report reads like a young (read: un-shitty) Andrew Ference. Pissing off the Canucks would be a huge bonus.

  57. Pretendergast says:

    Out goes Howson, in comes Maloney? Sounds great make it happen.

    Let Maloney make the call for first overall for OEL.

    Vengeance

  58. Caramel Batman says:

    slopitch:
    Subban would be a turning point for the franchise. Reinhart, Eberle and 2016 2nd enough? It might be.

    Klefbom-Subban(!!!)
    Sekera-Hamonic
    Nurse-Davidson
    Gryba

    Wow! If that’s the D I think we make playoffs next year.

    The holes on RW would be enormous (maybe you keep Yak?).But there are options available. Im a fan of Eriksson, Lucic and Okposo. Bidding on UFA day is a fools game. Finding someone to ride shotgun with McDavid should be easy to do without spending 5 million though.

    I like to think Subban can be had, but there is no way that gets it done.

  59. kinger_OIL says:

    – The OIL have an neat dance to play. Mandate number 1 of of course is to improve a lot in the off season. In the next 3 years, they should be Cup contenders

    – So they need more bona-fide NHL’ers, while also trying to figure out which players they have that will be part of Cup team in 3-5 years.

    – There is some ratio of new players in vs eroding developing base to win Cup.

    – If they get Matthews, get Subban and another RD, and a G tandemn: playoffs+ next season.

    – Realistically though, this off-season is about building a team that is in the position to be a trade away at deadline from being in playoffs…

    – I’d trade Drai over RNH by the way, but that’s the ratio math: Drai in 3 yrs vs RNH…

  60. Hockey Buddha says:

    This is the first summer, where I’m about 50-50 that the Oilers will make their draft selection in the first round. I think that pick is firmly on the table and may reasonably go as part of a package for a high impact defender. The Oilers have a significant number of tradeable assets and can put together a really enticing package for such a player. The Oiler’s first pick, Yakupov, and a prospect like Musil has to be able to shake loose a highly significant return from somewhere, without subtracting too much from the current line up.

  61. jonrmcleod says:

    Renaud Lavoie @renlavoietva
    #canadiens Marc Bergevin says he has no intention to trade PK Subban.

  62. Spoils says:

    @lowetide look at the cult of Hamonic on here!

    Definitely have to go after PK (and OEL). If we can’t get that, what about prospects in other systems that have potential – the Morriseys and Provorovs… A team with strong D- kings/hawks/flyers/jets may have prospects that could be acquired for a lot less, and could turn out.

    I think Sekera has to be considered a third pairing guy on our cup winner due to aging and required quality.

  63. godot10 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Let’s say the Oilers have a chance at acquiring both Subban and Barrie. And let’s also say Subban will cost you Hall (and maybe more), and Hamonic will cost you Eberle.

    Would you rather have Hall and Hamonic or Subban and Eberle?

    You forgot the other option — Subban AND Hamonic.

  64. fifthcartel says:

    Bergevin has “no intention”, that doesn’t sound as committed to him as I thought they would come out and say.

  65. Walter Sobchak says:

    I think it would have to be Hall and Nurse for Subban.

    Unless of course the OIlers win the lottery, then it’s the 1st for OEL.

  66. jonrmcleod says:

    godot10,

    I was going to add that, but I’m not sure you want to give up both Eberle and Hall. You’re starting to significantly weaken the offence.

  67. who says:

    Acumen:
    Younger Oil,

    Had the exact same thought process. I think I’d table something like Nuge, Reinhart, Fayne, 1st 2017 for Subban and Eller. Fayne and Eller have similar contracts and plug the holes opened up by the main pieces, Reinhart offers a young piece on D and is the type of defender the Habs tend to value, the first is my best guess at the trade-off that remains. The pick changes if they insist on Nurse, but that’s not a hill to die on.

    This makes a lot of sense. I like the way you plug the holes (sort of) created by the trading of the major players. Maybe you substitute Yak for the first rounder if they insist on Nurse. We may not like Ellers offense. He’s still better than Letestu, and he would be a solid 3rd center. He is good on faceoffs. Still don’t think the Habs do it.
    If this trade were to happen I’m not sure the Oilers need to add another dman

  68. Sugar Reijo says:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/pacioretty-subban-say-theres-no-rift-in-canadiens-dressing-room/article29584281/

    “Just to demonstrate there is no rift in the Montreal Canadiens dressing room, P.K. Subban broke into Max Pacioretty’s media scrum and gave the team captain a big hug.”

    Also

    “It’s so funny I’m being asked this,” Pacioretty said. “If you guys could bring the cameras into the wives’ room and see P.K. playing mini-sticks with my son after the game I don’t think I’d be asked this question.

    “What do you want me to say? P.K. Subban came to my wedding. I think you guys are looking way too far into this.”

    Interesting how narratives get started.

  69. godot10 says:

    Draisaitl, Yakupov, Korpikoski, Fayne, Reinhart, and a swap of firsts for Subban and Eller.

    Hey…I prefer Nugent-Hopkins to Draisaitl.

    With Pacioretty, the Canadiens don’t really need Hall. I think Bergevin would prefer Draisaitl to Nugent-Hopkins. Fayne for Eller…contracts match…Canadiens need replacement D. Oilers need to replace Draisaitl. Korpikoski a salary dump…Canadiens have cap room. The Oilers will need some cap space this year to fit Subban.

  70. blainer says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Because of the cap all superstars in the NHL are underpaid relative to their value.

    Subban + 1.5 M generic player + 1.5 M generic player is better than 3 x 4 M players, since the difference between the 4M player and the 1.5 M player isn’t that great.

    Subban has been criminally underrated for years.He’s the only kind of player I would trade Hall for.

    That said, if Montreal actually is dumb enough to consider trading him all you have to do is beat the other offers, and here the 9M contract actually helps, since there won’t be that many offers.

    RNH + Nurse gets in done, and that is a great trade for the Oilers.

    Then you either sign Demers, or trade Eberle for Hamonic.It’s going to be carnage out there for the mid range player without a contract, so then fill out the roster with veterans who can’t get a contract, finally use the training camp invite to good effect, and away you go.

    Finally, that would be a team to get behind.It wouldn’t have three scoring lines but so long as McClellan is the coach this team will never have three scoring lines anyway.

    My highest aspiration was Tyson Barrie.If the Oilers actually got Subban that would be unbelievable.

    I would ask to have Fayne included . Gives them a RT shot D and helps off set PK’s salary.

    So.. RNH Nurse and Fayne for PK. That is very fair for both sides. They get a number one center and a major up and coming prospect. I would even throw in Reinhart if that would make it work.

  71. Visually better says:

    I am on the no P.K. Subban side of things. Here Is how my PERFECT summer storm turns out:

    Hall plus Reinhart/nurse if u have to for: Oliver Ekman-larsson

    Eberle for hamonic

    Draft laine

    Sign okposo or Lucic.

    To me I don’t want Subban for 3 simple reasons: cap hit, personality issues, and if u can trade for one of OEL or subban (how is this even a thing?) u definitely trade for OEL IMO.

    Pou McDavid laine
    Maroon Drai yakupov
    Lucic nuge slepy
    Hendy letestu pakirenen

    OEL Klefbom
    Sekera hamonic
    Nurse Davidson

  72. v4ance says:

    Subban + McCarron for Draisaitl, Yak, Fayne and Reinhart.

    Keep our 1st rounder and draft a forward

  73. The Trade Guy says:

    OEL would be pretty sweet for this team. He’d be my target.

  74. rickithebear says:

    Leon Draisatl:
    6’1″ 215lb 20 year old with 6 years of man growing to do.
    20th best EVP/60 forward in the game going PvP against the best in the west.

    Yeah that with a Strong bo/slot protection wins you games every time.

    We tested the Bad box/slot D with 6 top 40 EVp/60 forwards this year.
    Did not go so well.

    See PK subban for shitty Defence.

  75. Doug McLachlan says:

    Loving the PK talk almost as much as the Stamkos talk. That said, let’s describe this as highly unlikely.

    Hope Chia is doing his job and kicking the tires but really that seems a long, long, long shot at best.

    In the world of the more realistic, do we know how many of the kids bonuses, if any, tripped over for this year?

    Looking at Chicago, they are kinda hooped with Panarin hitting his bonuses since they will tag into next year – reducing their effective cap for next season. Given that they are already at $65M committed to next year, I wonder if pending RFA Andrew Shaw makes for a potential target for Chia?

  76. russ99 says:

    If OEL is traded, I’ll be very, very surprised.

    OEL being traded into the same division seems to be an impossibility.

  77. Truth says:

    russ99:
    If OEL is traded, I’ll be very, very surprised.

    OEL being traded into the same division seems to be an impossibility.

    Does the new GM acquire the hometown boy at the price of their current best player? It would certainly take some stones to pull that off as his first move as GM no matter who the trade partner is.

  78. Stelio Kontos says:

    Where are the Eric Tillman’s of the NHL?

  79. delooper says:

    Doesn’t Hamonic compare to Fayne pretty well? It seems east coast players have their tires over-inflated near all the time. The move to the western conference and. . . plop. What happened?

  80. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Loving the PK talk almost as much as the Stamkos talk.That said, let’s describe this as highly unlikely.

    Hope Chia is doing his job and kicking the tires but really that seems a long, long, long shot at best.

    In the world of the more realistic, do we know how many of the kids bonuses, if any, tripped over for this year?

    Looking at Chicago, they are kinda hooped with Panarin hitting his bonuses since they will tag into next year – reducing their effective cap for next season.Given that they are already at $65M committed to next year, I wonder if pending RFA Andrew Shaw makes for a potential target for Chia?

    McDavid got 2 million for being a top 10 forward in PPG I believe.

  81. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Truth: Does the new GM acquire the hometown boy at the price of their current best player? It would certainly take some stones to pull that off as his first move as GM no matter who the trade partner is.

    Tippett won the power battle and wants to win more games now.

    Maloney lost and he was doing a slow build. They have really nice forward prospects in the pipeline.

    Winning more games now and trading OEL for Matthews seems like exact opposites to me.

    I feel like unless ownership directly orders it to happen for reasons other than winning hockey games this trade is LESS likely today than it was yesterday.

  82. dustrock says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Loving the PK talk almost as much as the Stamkos talk.That said, let’s describe this as highly unlikely.

    Hope Chia is doing his job and kicking the tires but really that seems a long, long, long shot at best.

    In the world of the more realistic, do we know how many of the kids bonuses, if any, tripped over for this year?

    Looking at Chicago, they are kinda hooped with Panarin hitting his bonuses since they will tag into next year – reducing their effective cap for next season.Given that they are already at $65M committed to next year, I wonder if pending RFA Andrew Shaw makes for a potential target for Chia?

    Doug – it seems madness to me to keep Therrien, but they confirmed they’re keeping him around.

    It’s unlikely Subban gets traded, as we’re so used to hearing bad press in the MSM for Hall, Ottawa gets it for Karlsson, etc.

    But it certainly seems like Therrien is not a huge Subban fan and he’s still the coach. And Bergevin saying “I have no intention of trading PK” isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement.

  83. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy,

    Miller reminds me of a poor man’s Boychuk without the shot.
    He moves the puck a bit better than McQuaid, but so does a potato.
    I think he would be a good fit as a #7 guy capable of playing on the bottom pairing.
    He has a history of shoulder troubles in his brief NHL career.
    Seems like a perfect fit for the Oilers.

    Thanks for the scouting report.

    Seeing as he kept his head above water on 1st and 2nd he might be an ideal candidate for 3RD as he could move up the roster when injuries happen.

  84. unca miltie says:

    jake70,

    My uncle had season tickets and he took my brother to the game, not me..I am still p!ssed

  85. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    delooper:
    Doesn’t Hamonic compare to Fayne pretty well?It seems east coast players have their tires over-inflated near all the time.The move to the western conference and. . . plop.What happened?

    One of the token nerds on the site (I say that with reverence) showed empirically that Hamonic was a top perform even against Western teams. Maybe Woodguy or GMoney….

    I don’t remember what the content was, but I remember being reasonably convinced by it. So take that for what it’s worth.

  86. Ice Sage says:

    A humbling year in Montreal – the harsh realization that they are not a good team sans Price.
    Stuff gets said, fingers pointed, reporters bored and the spincycle goes all Speith… sounds so familiar.
    I also think PK is not good value, money, cost or culture-wise. (but then again I thought the Oilers would get 88 points)

  87. Truth says:

    I have been the #1 skeptic of Klefbom’s recovery. Good to hear Chiarelli (and McLellan) say they do not expect any lingering issues.

    However, Chiarelli’s quote; “He’s going to get the proper equipment. We’ve been looking at getting the proper skate, customized..” reiterates my skepticism. If I owned racehorses. and one of my prized thoroughbreds had an injury that prevented it from being able to run without the use of a custom brace, I surely wouldn’t be telling my friends and family to bet on it once it returns.

    If the organization’s optimism convinces other GM’s all is normal and they can cash in on the past and future of Klefbom + whatever it takes for a true #1, then I’m all for it.

  88. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Strome +1st to Leafs for Matthews

    Why might not something like that be more plausible than trading OEL, which goes against everything said about trying to win next year.

  89. Water Fire says:

    Truth:
    I have been the #1 skeptic of Klefbom’s recovery.Good to hear Chiarelli (and McLellan) say they do not expect any lingering issues.

    However, Chiarelli’s quote; “He’s going to get the proper equipment. We’ve been looking at getting the proper skate, customized..”reiterates my skepticism.If I owned racehorses. and one of my prized thoroughbreds had an injury thatprevented it from being able to run without the use of a custom brace, I surely wouldn’t be telling my friends and family to bet on it once it returns.

    If the organization’s optimism convinces other GM’s all is normal and they can cash in on the past and future of Klefbom + whatever it takes for a true #1, then I’m all for it.

    I also thought if he’s healed why does he need a custom skate? It might be sensitivity because there would be newly healed skin of a fair area there or the like.

  90. godot10 says:

    Water Fire: I also thought if he’s healed why does he need a custom skate? It might be sensitivity because there would be newly healed skin of a fair area there or the like.

    You want a skate that isn’t going to cause a skate bite in the first place. If Klef likes a really tight boot, design a custom boot where the laces won’t irritate the skin.

  91. rickithebear says:

    Visually better:

    Pou McDavid laine
    Maroon Drai yakupov
    Lucic nuge slepy
    Hendy letestu pakirenen

    OEL Klefbom
    Sekera hamonic
    Nurse Davidson

    In a 2018 expansion Draft these players would be 2 year+ pro’s

    Pou McDavid
    Maroon Drai yakupov
    Lucic nuge slepy
    Hendy letestu pakirenen

    OEL Klefbom
    Sekera hamonic
    Nurse Davidson

  92. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Does the picture at the top of the thread not look like Nurse in a #4 jersey, or am I crazy?

  93. Water Fire says:

    godot10: You want a skate that isn’t going to cause a skate bite in the first place.If Klef likes a really tight boot, design a custom boot where the laces won’t irritate the skin.

    True

  94. Магия 10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Does the picture at the top of the thread not look like Nurse in a #4 jersey, or am I crazy?

    Here’s the stat line for the Condors #4:

    # PLAYER POS GP G A PTS +/- PIM PP SHG SOG SH%
    4 Darnell Nurse D 6 0 1 1 0 7 0 0 10 0.0

  95. T0ML says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Does the picture at the top of the thread not look like Nurse in a #4 jersey, or am I crazy?

    It does because it is, On the Condors

  96. AsiaOil says:

    LT – do you know what the Corsi (and Rel percentages) for defensemen since the All-Star Break are?

  97. Stelio Kontos says:

    As much as I like nuge and draisaitl, the possibility of an expansion draft probably makes matthews more attractive. Not to mention he probably falls somewhere in the Hall,Tavares, Eichel, Seguin range, which I’m not sure draisaitl and huge do.

  98. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Магия 10,

    T0ML,

    So I’m not crazy? Perfect.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Jen Costello knocks it out of the park again:

    https://jenlc13.wordpress.com/2016/04/11/crucial-habits-shot-generation-controlled-zone-exits/

    Fantastic piece on controlled zone exits and shot generation.

    She found that:

    over 57.3% of the 7142 goals tracked were scored in 7 seconds or less of zone time.

    Wow.

    That means that almost 60% of goals in the NHL are scored “off the rush.”

    Would have never of guessed it was that high.

  100. frjohnk says:

    AsiaOil:
    LT – do you know what the Corsi (and Rel percentages) for defensemen since the All-Star Break are?

    CF%
    Brandon.Davidson 51.8
    Andrej.Sekera 51.4
    Mark.Fayne 48.1
    Adam.Pardy 48
    Eric.Gryba 46.8
    Adam.Clendening 46.7
    Darnell.Nurse 46.5
    Griffin.Reinhart 44.9

    CF%Rel
    Andrej.Sekera 4.1
    Brandon.Davidson 3.3
    Eric.Gryba 0.8
    Mark.Fayne -1.1
    Adam.Clendening -2.6
    Darnell.Nurse -2.9
    Adam.Pardy -3.4
    Griffin.Reinhart -4.6

  101. Fog of Warts says:

    That said, part of the balance equation is keeping young, unready players in the minors until ready.

    Has a young, unready organization ever done this? If not, this wise maxim translates as follows: whatever you do, don’t become a young, unready organization.

    Which is not, I think, what most people wish to hear this as meaning.

    A shit team trying to marinate a young, unready hotshot in the slow cooker will soon have Fedorov programming your GM’s home alone telephone number into all ten single-button slots, not to mention just about every Russian curse word activating speed dial on Fedorov’s car phone.

    ———

    Fedorov driving down the highway. Some crew-cut who has generously miscounted his own testicles cuts him off.

    Fedorov: [in Russian] Platypus placenta!

    Phone overhears this, begins to dial itself automatically.

    Chia: Hello? [immediately recognizing the sound of all the extra cylinders] Hey, did you blow your rings again? Sounding rough today.

    Fedorov: Ahhh, merry xmas to you too! Always the smart mechanic, aren’t you? I was just thinking about you …

    Chia: Come on—just cut it out. Your client simply needs to play better.

    Fedorov: Better than whom? Niki Nikitin?

    Chia: How about Sergio Sharapova?

    Fedorov: [paying no attention] My guy wants out.

    Chia: Your guy can baste.

    Fedorov: Arbitration comes so very soon, when you’re working your ass off in the wrong league. In your AHL, you season so beautifully, the panel drools.

    Chia: Not at all. He won’t have the box cars.

    Fedorov: But he will have the dining car: I describe method of Winged Wheel like a smoked-meat rotisserie—very slow, marbled fat loving melted; so smoke, so caramel, so juicy.

    Chia: So soft. So pink. So useless without a pickle.

    Fedorov: A pickle?

    Chia: No-one eats smoked meat without a good pickle.

    Fedorov: Really? You think this?

    Chia: Hey, I’m in the GM business. Selling the pickle is job #1.

    Fedorov: They won’t believe your pickle; they only believe my smoke.

    Chia: Well, that day will come soon enough. For now, suck it, he bastes.

    Fedorov: You’ll be sorrrrry. I know a thing or two about making sorry, if anyone needs to ask.

    Chia: For sure. Some bloke is standing in line behind you to buy his smokes at 7-Eleven and you decide “hey, perfect time to ring up Chia and grind his ass one more time over making my client earn his stripes the right way.”

    Fedorov: Who needs stripes on Edmonton Oilers? Window washers from street improve fourth line.

    Chia: To be honest, can’t say I totally disagree with you on that one, but you’re forgetting that I’m a man of the template.

    Fedorov: Idiot! You can’t handle the template! The only reason your club so much as tasted the twenty somethings is now Bettman postpones expansion draft.

    Chia: The only reason you tasted twenty-something is because [pauses, regains his dignity] …. no, never mind, I’m not going to go there.

    Fedorov: Because what?

    Chia: I don’t think it needs to be said.

    Fedorov: If you’re implying something, I want to hear it.

    Chia: Really? Do we have to do this?

    Fedorov: I’m listening

    Chia: Look, you probably spent more time filing papers than actually—

    Fedorov: —flirting?

    Chia: Yeah! Isn’t that how it usually goes?

    Fedorov: Youth and beauty wait for no man. Next year, by xmas, you crack, we see.

    Chia: Bite. My. Pickle.

    Fedorov: No. You crack. We see. Merry xmas, auf wiedersehen.

  102. Marc says:

    A propos of nothing, this article about Jagr in the NY TImes is fantastic: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/09/sports/hockey/jaromir-jagr-still-playing-with-florida-panthers.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

    I’ve never been more pant-wettingly terrified of an opposing player than I was of Jagr in semi-final in Nagano in 1998. He seemed absolutely unstoppable no matter who we put on the ice against him.

  103. AsiaOil says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for that Woodguy.

    Very interesting message as both skating with possession into the offensive zone (Chicago model) and dump and chase (Anaheim model) can be effective in generating scoring chances. But exiting the defensive zone with control is required for both.

    The Oilers are very much currently built along the Chicago model of entering the offensive zone via the rush but this can be severely restricted via neutral zone defensive systems. I don’t think coach has been imposing a dump and chase model on to the forwards as much as forcing them to realize that they must be able to adapt and be able to successfully dump and chase when teams inevitably try to shut down zone entries via the rush. If a team is unable or unwilling to adapt their game when their preferred zone entry option is shut down – they will pay heavily in reduced scoring chances.

    So the Oilers have been a) totally inept at controlled defensive zone entries, and b) stubborn and unable to adapt and play dump and chase when their preferred option of carrying the puck into the offensive zone is denied. So as Chia essentially outlined yesterday – we need to get “heavier” to improve our dump and chase game in the offensive zone and obtain defensemen who can achieve a high percentage of controlled d-zone exits. Still a rush team given our players but you must be be able to play dump and chase if the rush is denied.

  104. AsiaOil says:

    Thanks 🙂

    frjohnk: CF%
    Brandon.Davidson51.8
    Andrej.Sekera51.4
    Mark.Fayne48.1
    Adam.Pardy48
    Eric.Gryba46.8
    Adam.Clendening46.7
    Darnell.Nurse46.5
    Griffin.Reinhart44.9

    CF%Rel
    Andrej.Sekera4.1
    Brandon.Davidson3.3
    Eric.Gryba0.8
    Mark.Fayne-1.1
    Adam.Clendening-2.6
    Darnell.Nurse-2.9
    Adam.Pardy-3.4
    Griffin.Reinhart-4.6

  105. kinger_OIL says:

    – I know it’s not new, but hearing the player say it: its just crazy:

    “I’ve had a different coach every year I’ve been here,” said centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

  106. AsiaOil says:

    I’v been struggling to describe why I think Puljujärvi may be the best pick for us – but the data Costello produced has allowed me to organize my thoughts.

    Jesse Puljujärvi may be the best choice based on where Chia seems to be taking the team. In my limited viewing I like his size, skating, shot, passing and ability to “take what the opposition gives” in terms of zone entry. A well rounded and more north-south kind of player than Laine as McKenzie has described which should translate well to the NHL. Clearly Laine is flashier – but that may not necessarily mean more effective. Either guy would look wicked on our top 2 lines – but Puljujärvi is a natural RW which is clearly our biggest problem at all levels aside from RHD. But holy crap are those two Finns nice looking players who would fit CMD perfectly.

  107. Marc says:

    AsiaOil:

    So the Oilers have been a) totally inept at controlled defensive zone entries, and b) stubborn and unable to adapt and play dump and chase when their preferred option of carrying the puck into the offensive zone is denied. So as Chia essentially outlined yesterday – we need to get “heavier” to improve our dump and chase game in the offensive zone and obtain defensemen who can achieve a high percentage of controlled d-zone exits. Still a rush team given our players but you must be be able to play dump and chase if the rush is denied.

    And like the threat of the run sets up the passing game in football, being able to dump and chase effectively should give the forwards more space for controlled entries. For a couple of years it seems like opposing teams have cheated towards holding the blue line, knowing that even if they don’t force the turnover they’ll be able to recover possession down low. If the Oilers’ forwards can consistently win possession on the dump and chase then it should force the opposing D to play deeper against the rush, leaving more space for Hall and McDavid in particular to make a controlled entry.

  108. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy:
    Jen Costello knocks it out of the park again:

    https://jenlc13.wordpress.com/2016/04/11/crucial-habits-shot-generation-controlled-zone-exits/

    Fantastic piece on controlled zone exits and shot generation.

    She found that:

    over 57.3% of the 7142 goals tracked were scored in 7 seconds or less of zone time.

    Wow.

    That means that almost 60% of goals in the NHL are scored “off the rush.”

    Would have never of guessed it was that high.

    Which confirms what LT says about the team needing players who can take/make a pass. D-men who dump to the neutral zone are literal poison to an NHL team.

    Break cycle, breakout with possession, and go man go.

    Can’t really say I am surprised. What surprises me is that more teams stifle offense to protect, than run and gun. 3 points awarded per game, and I think that goes away to an extent.

  109. Stelio Kontos says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – I know it’s not new, but hearing the player say it: its just crazy:

    “I’ve had a different coach every year I’ve been here,” said centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    Good

    Mc
    Renney

    Meh

    Krueger
    Nelson

    HFS

    Quinn

    Swears this bad have not been invented
    Eakins

  110. vinotintazo says:

    I’m hearing Klefboms interview on the Gregor show, pretty much says the ankle kept healing/re-injuring during the 3 month span. Says he has to wear a custom skate (still looking for the right one) in order to avoid re-injury. He’s confident it wont bother him next season (pending he finds the right skate).

  111. Aron_S says:

    vinotintazo,

    Ooof. I know it’s not nearly the same injury, but reading the custom skate business gives me douche chills thinking about what happened to Ryan Whitney and his constant re-injury problems.

  112. Aron_S says:

    AsiaOil,

    I don’t know whether this works in Puljujarvi’s favour or not, but someone on TSN1260 (McKenzie?) mentioned earlier that in a double OT head to head game, Laine played almost ~35 minutes and Puljujarvi was ~15 minutes (all numbers subject to misremembering). The point was made though that Laine was getting LOTS of minutes for his production and Puljujarvi was scoring well at a GF/60 pace.

    I like Laine a lot, but that statement gave me pause.

  113. Centre of attention says:

    Aron_S,

    Except Klefboms is just a bad skin infections / rash and Whitney had a reconstructed bionic ankle.

    It was encouraging hearing it from Klefbom himself, and he seems pretty confident he can play and exert force on it fine. It’s just a matter of stopping the rubbing so the skin can heal. I bet in a year once the skin fully heals he won’t even need the special skate.

  114. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy: seconds

    For me, a major part of the shock comes from phrasing.

    When I imagine a play “off the rush”, I think of a 3-on-2 or a 2-on-1. I think of one pass, maybe two, or a shot by the initial puck carrier and then I consider the possibility of a shot off the rebound.

    When I imagine a play “within 7 seconds of zone entry”, suddenly I can see that initial rush and a shot and a save and then a puck retrieval along the wall, a pass to the point, and another scoring chance altogether.

    Maybe it still comes as a bit of a surprise but the two phrases make me think of somewhat different scenarios.

  115. CrazyCoach says:

    Centre of attention: Except Klefboms is just a bad skin infections / rash and Whitney had a reconstructed bionic ankle.

    If memory serves me right, there once was a goalie who had all sorts of issues with rashes and his equipment. It basically ended his career.

    Kind of strange how infections can be caused by a skate, but when I open my own gear bag, I’m reminded, that yeah, gear bags are cesspools of bacteria and god knows what.

  116. Showerhead says:

    Ha, I saw your comment and then logged in, searched “seconds”, and hit quote. I didn’t realize it would quote exactly the highlighted text.

  117. Doug McLachlan says:

    Aron_S,

    Which way? Laine is able to play with men or that Puljujarvi will only get better?

  118. Aron_S says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    It made me think that Puljujarvi may have a higher ceiling than I initially thought (full disclosure, I’ve only watched both of them in the world juniours). If PJ is putting up similar numbers to Laine in half the TOI, that has to be an up arrow, right? Thoughts?

  119. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy:
    Jen Costello knocks it out of the park again:

    https://jenlc13.wordpress.com/2016/04/11/crucial-habits-shot-generation-controlled-zone-exits/

    Fantastic piece on controlled zone exits and shot generation.

    She found that:

    over 57.3% of the 7142 goals tracked were scored in 7 seconds or less of zone time.

    Wow.

    That means that almost 60% of goals in the NHL are scored “off the rush.”

    Would have never of guessed it was that high.

    When teams have time to set up their defensive structure it is very hard to score.

  120. G Money says:

    Aron_S: douche chills

    I know I shouldn’t ask but … WTF is a douche chill?!?

  121. Water Fire says:

    Thanks for the link WG.

    I’ve felt for a while that defense as a primary skill have to be able to make a good play with the puck, as in Oesterle is still more effective than Pardy because of ability that matters more.

    That being said the Oilers seem stuck between Oesterle and Pardy – one who’s size limits defense and one who’s skill limits normal play. The answer lies in the middle of that vector.

    Looking at Anaheims and Chicagos D on paper really they aren’t that impressive, on the ice they are. It goes to how important making right plays with tempo matter, which leads to the scoring time . As mentioned goals come not mpre off the rush but from controlled O zone high tempo. A few quick well done palysbamd in, or its trench warfare or coming the other way.

  122. meanashell11 says:

    G Money: I know I shouldn’t ask but … WTF is a douche chill?!?

    I think it speaks for itself!

  123. G Money says:

    delooper:
    Doesn’t Hamonic compare to Fayne pretty well?It seems east coast players have their tires over-inflated near all the time.The move to the western conference and. . . plop.What happened?

    Ca$h-McMoney!: One of the token nerds on the site (I say that with reverence) showed empirically that Hamonic was a top perform even against Western teams. Maybe Woodguy or GMoney…

    Moi.

    Since the “Mark Fayne Experience”, when I evaluate defensemen, particularly Eastern defensemen, I always look specifically (among other things) at:

    – WOWY data, to see who’s zoomin’ who.
    – PvP data vs top players, esp. big Western players

    Hamonic is no Fayne.

    Fayne was zoomed by Green. Hamonic pretty much makes everyone around him better. He does the zooming, not the getting zoomed.

    Hamonic does just fine against big players, East and West. Like all defenders, he does better against some and less so against others, but there isn’t a specific pattern suggesting he’s weak against a particular type of player. In fact, some of his numbers are damn impressive – like being 60%+ CF% against the Sedins.

    I’m certain the Oilers couldn’t have used that the last few years…

  124. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    From my limited viewings, I prefer Puljujarvi on future projection, too. Laine is going to be good, but I just have a feeling Puljujarvi will be special.

    Hope the Oilers can land one because RW is an area of severe need. Meanwhile watch the media chastise the Oilers for taking another winger.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Showerhead: For me, a major part of the shock comes from phrasing.

    When I imagine a play “off the rush”, I think of a 3-on-2 or a 2-on-1. I think of one pass, maybe two, or a shot by the initial puck carrier and then I consider the possibility of a shot off the rebound.

    When I imagine a play “within 7 seconds of zone entry”, suddenly I can see that initial rush and a shot and a save and then a puck retrieval along the wall, a pass to the point, and another scoring chance altogether.

    Maybe it still comes as a bit of a surprise but the two phrases make me think of somewhat different scenarios.

    Yeah a “true” rush goal is probably within 3 seconds of entry, maybe less.

    But scoring within 7 would *probably* mean that a dump and chase and puck battle didn’t happen, but the initial entry was off the rush.

  126. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy: Yeah a “true” rush goal is probably within 3 seconds of entry, maybe less.

    But scoring within 7 would *probably* mean that a dump and chase and puck battle didn’t happen, but the initial entry was off the rush.

    Hmm, I wonder: would a team that’s *good* at puck battles have enough time? I’m half kidding – IE poking fun at how bad Edmonton is at this – but would that be enough time for the LA Kings?

  127. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    From my limited viewings, I prefer Puljujarvi on future projection, too. Laine is going to be good, but I just have a feeling Puljujarvi will be special.

    Hope the Oilers can land one because RW is an area of severe need. Meanwhile watch the media chastise the Oilers for taking another winger.

    I like Laine because:

    -Hall is a very good “playmaker/passer”. 2 years ago he lead the NHL in Vollman’s passing stat

    -McDavid is play maker as well, not a great shot….yet

    – Draisaitl is primarily a distributor of the puck

    -RNH is a sublime passer as well

    -Eberle is a shooter, but doesn’t have a one timer

    Only Yak is a shooter and he’s not here anymore.

    They have many players who can create the play and distribute the puck, they need finishers.

    They need a Neal, Tarasenko, Ovechkin, Kessel, Forsberg etc.

    They don’t have that player.

    They need balance.

    Also,

    Some people are starting to not call Laine “a 6’3″ Kurri, but Lemiuex-lite”

    Crazy.

  128. Aron_S says:

    G Money,

    Hahaha, I wondered while typing it if that might be a new one for some here. A more hilarious heebie-jeebies if you will.

  129. Water Fire says:

    Much of the Oilers issues are that while being fast they play slow. Connor waits for guys to catch up with his head as well as feet. It’s the primary PP issue IMO. If you give teams time they will set up and be hard to score on. You have to create breakdowns through pressure.

    The goalie equipment will help some with scoring. I agree McLellan is teaching chip and chase because it is necessary to beat NZ traps and in playoffs. LA uses it a lot and they don’t suck. I fully expect that as the team matures they will control entries more.

    Hall mentioned part is playing the way your teammates can handle. Your not going to rush with Maroon but if he can get to the corner first you keep the zone.

  130. Water Fire says:

    I restated a lot already said I’m on my phone that is not fun to use on this site

  131. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Both Finn’s are essentially can’t miss prospects, I would be happy with either.

    Pulijarvi will be available after the 2nd pick but not after xx ?

    We are taking one of him or Laine if we’re top 3, they’re exactly what CMD needs.

  132. jeetz says:

    Hello. Long time reader. Haven’t posted in forever. Thought I would weigh in tonight.

    First, I actually feel strangely OK about the Oiler season. I think because I am genuinely excited about next year. I think the stability of our GM AND Coach brings a calming influence. There is going to be change AND stability. I am really hoping we get Maloney as an assist GM, what a coup! There in a real smart hockey guy respected in the NHL.

    I also have to say that no matter where we land in the draft, we should not trade that pick for an NHL player. Whoever we get can definitely help us as an impact player, but more importantly that player will not have to be protected in the expansion draft. Any player we get in a trade would be…asset management.

    I think that we can agree that if Chiarelli has his way, he will trade Eberle and keep Hall and RNH for a top 4 dman and sign another (UFA). I would think that Fayne is as good as gone because Davidson will be in the bottom pairing and can play in the top 4 when needed. So we will likely start the season with:

    Klefbom + new D
    New D + Sekera
    Davidson + Nurse
    Gryba

    I think most fans can get behind that.

    On FWD, with Eberle gone I’m betting Chairelli signs a top 6 UFA winger. But I am also hoping if he trades Nail (part of me hopes he stays) he get can get Dallas to take him for Nichushkin. I’m hoping he is quiet in the playoffs and Dallas gets upset early (that is my long shot prediction) My point being I am betting those are the only 2 FWDS on the move unless Chairelli can move Korpikoski. Either way, I think there will be more returning players than we think. With a stronger defense, less injuries and real goaltending (which seems fine with Talbot), Oilers will be pushing hard for a playoff spot all season next year.

    I’m OK with that.

    Thanks for the daily reads Lowetide! I look forward to them every day

  133. JimmyV1965 says:

    dustrock,

    No offence, but the crap about Hall’s personality does not come from the MSM. It comes from people commenting on blogs like this. Kinda like the crap you just threw out there a it Therrien.

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