REVIEWING THE 2015 OILERS DRAFT

The Edmonton Oilers marched into the 2015 entry draft with the No. 1 overall pick in the right year and that’s for sure. They also had a pile of picks after that, and cashed many of them for Griffin Reinhart, Cam Talbot, Todd McLellan and Eric Gryba—effectively staying out of the draft for most of day two. Still, they got some outstanding value—plus Connor McDavid.

  • No. 1 overall—C Connor McDavid. Scott Cullen’s numbers tell us we are looking at Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin at the top end, and Patrik Stefan at the bottom. I think McDavid has established where he will land on that graph, but it was fun to see the first 45 games to confirm the fact. Connor McDavid in full flight is just about the best thing about hockey today.
  • No. 117 overall—D Caleb Jones. He showed well in Orientation Camp and in pre-season, then posted a very strong WHL season. Cullen tells us there is 14 percent chance Jones plays 100 NHL games, and the NHLE after year one (17 points) puts him above what we were led to believe on draft day. He signed his pro contract and has two AHL games this spring. I would count this as a good early arrow from the 2015 draft.
  • No. 124 overall—D Ethan Bear. He enjoyed a quality season (NHLE: 21 points) and one imagines we will see him signed over the spring. Bear is a righty and has some power-play assets. Miles to go, but another solid arrow. A 16 percent chance of 100 games according to Cullen.
  • No. 154 overall—D John Marino. The USHL kids are so hard to track (NHLE: 12) but all accounts have him stepping up this season. Marino improved slightly offensively in the second half (he ended the year 31, 4-14-18 after beginning 25, 1-11-12) and we look forward to his first season at Harvard. Has a 15 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games in his career based on the Cullen study. Righty.
  • No. 208—G Miroslav Svoboda. A tale of two seasons for Svoboda, both in the Cze-2 league. He struggled with 8, 4.51 .867 when playing for AZ Havirov, but he played far better (21, 3.05 .924) when employed by HC Sumperk. No idea what to make of it, but you always like goalies who can stop puck 92 percent of the time.
  • No. 209—D Ziyat Paigin. The other shoe in the Cam Talbot trade, Paigin could be a big damned deal. He was outstanding in the KHL (NHLE: 41 points) and he is 6.06. He has another year on his contract, but there is nothing about his season that can be looked at as a negative. Cullen’s number has him at a nine percent chance of making the NHL, but my goodness what an arrow.

I think the Oilers scouts nailed the picks they were given. We can (and will) discuss the trades that left the team with far fewer bullets for the future, but one year on we are looking at the best young player in a decade, a crazy Russian season, two WHL kids who pushed the offense and learned the defense, and a distant bell goalie. You may also enjoy reading my Harvest Moon post from the end of draft day two, a summary of the events.

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66 Responses to "REVIEWING THE 2015 OILERS DRAFT"

  1. Rondo says:

    Troy Stecher signs with Vancouver

    Frank Seravalli ‏@frank_seravalli
    #Canucks signed udfa D Troy Stecher from North Dakota. He’s a BC boy. Some believe Stecher may actually be better pro prospect than Caggiula

  2. Pretendergast says:

    Turn on That’s Hockey! Playoff Edition

    Our top story tonight: Morgan Reilly and Nazem Kadri

    Really? Not even for 1 day guys?

  3. dustrock says:

    Vancouver seemed like the logical fit all along.

  4. stener says:

    Pretendergast,

    TSN: Toronto Sports News

  5. Hockey Buddha says:

    I thought he would sign with the ‘Nucks. I think that may be a decision he regrets in a few years.

  6. RJ2016 says:

    Snow turned Reinhart and a third into two first rounders in a deep draft.

    I would have much preferred to see two additional first rounders on the draft review, or seen them leverage those picks to get an actual NHL defender.

  7. Hockey Buddha says:

    I think that draft has a few NHL players in it. That’s the most impressive late round drafting in a long while.

  8. TheOtherJohn says:

    Could have had Kyle Connor at 16, leaving aside the #33 pick. Expect he’ll be consistent contributor as quickly as Reinhart only it won’t in his draft+5 or 6 year. Ceiling might be a 2C on playoff team.Shitty trade at time, has not gotten better with time.

    Expect it’ll age just like Parise for MAP and JF Jacques

  9. Water Fire says:

    I see Caligula every time I read Caggiula.

    Kevin McCartney – pondering the dramatic changes in possession in Pittsburgh and Dallas, and recoveries in LA and Anaheim, I am curious as to what you think made the difference systemically, if you have time and interest.

  10. Woogie63 says:

    Would Jay Fester as an assistant GM and Rick Wamsley as the goalie coach make sense for us?

  11. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    Would Jay Fester as an assistant GM and Rick Wamsley as the goalie coach make sense for us?

    Jay Fester has been working here for years.

  12. jimmers2 says:

    Holding McDavid and Draisaitl out of it, the 2015 draft looks to have been a much stronger bit of work for the Oilers than that of 2014. 2014 still doesn’t make much sense.

  13. Kitchener says:

    Hockey Buddha:
    I thought he would sign with the ‘Nucks.I think that may be a decision he regrets in a few years.

    It’s hard to fault a kid for signing an NHL deal with their home-town team, but I’ll make an exception when it comes to Vancouver (*spits*)

  14. Lowetide says:

    jimmers2:
    Holding McDavid and Draisaitl out of it, the 2015 draft looks to have been a much stronger bit of work for the Oilers than that of 2014.2014 still doesn’t make much sense.

    Still don’t know what the hell they were doing.

  15. Kitchener says:

    I love the trade in theory (16 + 33 for 4; addressing positional need via trade; good kid from a hockey family; lots of hockey tools; the kid knows exactly what it means to play and succeed in Edmonton).

    The trouble is that when theory turns to reality, odds go out the window and we’re left with one bullet instead of two and four more years until we get to judge which bullets hit the target.

  16. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    Whats worse for Oilers drafts, 2007 or 2014?

    #TrickQuestion

  17. AsiaOil says:

    Yeah 2014 may not be 1990 bad (only because of the high pick in Drai) but ranking as the worst draft since 1995 seems well in reach. What the hell were they doing??????

  18. kinger_OIL says:

    Kitchener,

    – I liked the theory as well. Had Griff played as well as Davidson did this year, there would be no question that it was a good trade. Griff just wasn’t as far along as who ever scouted him thought.

    – Should Griff become the partner with a good top-4 D vet on the 2nd pair at the start of 2017-2018 (in two seasons), one would consider the trade a success.

  19. Clay says:

    Honestly LT, you could’ve saved yourself alot of writing for this post.

    “No. 1 overall—C Connor McDavid. Fin”

    *picture of the dancing hurdler*

  20. The Hermit says:

    Lowetide: Jay Fester has been working here for years.

    THAT explains Klefboms infection!

  21. RexLibris says:

    Woogie63:
    Would Jay Fester as an assistant GM and Rick Wamsley as the goalie coach make sense for us?

    I thought we were done with the “be bad in order to one day be good” phase?

    I wouldn’t hire Feaster as GM, AGM, or professional scout.

    He overcommits on contracts, tends to gamble on unproven talents and has a gift for hyperbole that would make Mark Spector squirm in his seat.

    This is a guy who nearly lost a 1st round pick in compensation for a player who would have been immediately lost to waivers (Ryan O’Reilly) and then defended the gaffe by saying that he and Weisbrod had put together an argument (likely after the fact) that they felt would convince the league lawyers everything was hunky-dory.

  22. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Still don’t know what the hell they were doing.

    I remember watching that 2014 draft come through on the computer and staring agape and the names coming in.

    At least in 2015 there were trades for players. The Marincin for Gryba move, which is essentially what it was, was infuriating but a heck of a lot better than “who in the hell is Liam Coughlin?”

    That being said, it will be really interesting to weigh the 2013 – analytics-driven draft against the 2014 – What bottles are behind the bar? draft.

  23. sliderule says:

    The only defence I have for the Reinhart trade is that they were going to draft defencemen and Jones and Bear were going to be there later.

    Jones and Bear both had good showings at u 18 and that might have influenced the scouts.

    They both have produced boxes and reports that exceed or equal the defencemen picked in the range of picks they gave up.

    It was a gamble but the answer as to whether it was worth it hasn’t been written.

  24. Clay says:

    That Danny DeKeyser is a beauty.

  25. Centre of attention says:

    Oh Schultz. Never change.

  26. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    The only defence I have for the Reinhart trade is that they were going to draft defencemen and Jones and Bear were going to be there later.

    Jones and Bear both had goodshowings at u 18 and that might have influenced the scouts.

    They both have produced boxes and reports that exceed or equal the defencemen picked in the range of picks they gave up.

    It was a gamble but the answer as towhether it was worth it hasn’t been written.

    Reinhart may end up being a productive member of this team, we don’t know. I did not like the value given up, but like the player. Hopefully he can find a role and be successful with the Oil.

  27. sliderule says:

    I have concern that Klefbom may be susceptible to Staph infections either through immune deficiencies or harbouring a particularly mean MSRA staph in his body.

    This concern is because of the reoccurring infections he had this year and the time he lost post draft with a serous leg infection..

    Do any of the medical people know how he can avoid another reoccurrence.

    I heard that a few years ago teams started using bleach on their equipment but that some players were getting rashes from bleach.

  28. MrEd says:

    Lowetide,

    Rhino matches Sek in a way. By the time Rhino’s controlled years are done, Sek will represent a couple of years of value. Especially if a sniff of salary is retained.

    Geez, I’m sounding like a guy who believes in management…

  29. Dr. Taboggan says:

    If anyone is watching the Wings/Bolts game just another example of how awful the offside review is.

  30. Clay says:

    Well, a beauty goal being called off in the Tampa v Detroit game due to offside challenge.

    It has begun. 1999 all over again.

  31. vinotintazo says:

    Clay:
    Well, a beauty goal being called off in the Tampa v Detroit game due to offside challenge.

    It has begun.1999 all over again.

    excuse my ignorance, but what happened in 99?

    also Schultz almost scored.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Drouin is flying. Always liked him.

  33. ashley says:

    re: sliderule

    It’s not my area of expertise, but a few things I can offer:

    There are things that are considered risk factors for soft tissue infections – “cellulitis”.

    – chronic skin disease/rashes (eg psoriasis)
    – Immunocompromise (leukemia, lymphoma, chemotherapy, etc)
    – systemic steroid use
    – peripheral vascular disease
    – diabetes
    – lifestyle (frequent cuts from work, poor hygiene, homeless)
    – lymphedema
    – obesity
    and many others.

    However, most people who have an episode of cellulitis won’t fall into any of these categories. Often it’s just bad luck after a cut or surgical wound or sometimes not even that.

    Regarding staph itself, staph is just one type of bacteria that causes soft tissue infections. None of the soft tissue infections are good things to have including staph. MRSA is not more serious than any other bacteria causing an infection in and of itself, but it can be trickier to treat as there are more limited antibiotics that are available to treat it. But it is still treatable. The body’s immune system does a lot of the treating and healing. Antibiotics accelerate the process.

    Staph is everywhere. It’s a common skin organism and is on your hands and keyboard as we speak. It can’t really be avoided. When you cut yourself, staph (and other organisms) go into your soft tissues and blood. Everyone who cuts themselves gets staph in their soft tissue, but most don’t get cellulitis. Some do.

    Unless we know otherwise, I think we can chalk Klef’s infection up to bad luck.

    Maybe an infectious disease specialist can chime in with more detailed information.

  34. godot10 says:

    sliderule:
    I have concern that Klefbom may be susceptible to Staph infections either through immune deficiencies or harbouring a particularly mean MSRA staph in his body.

    This concern is because of the reoccurring infections he had this year and the time he lost post draft with a serous leg infection..

    Do any of the medical people know how he can avoid another reoccurrence.

    Colloidal silver…as I go run for cover. Silver is a natural antibiotic. Have to be really careful preparing the colloidal silver solution though. Or one risks turning blue….into a smurf.

  35. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Lowetide,

    He is having a helluva game. Wonder if he stays in Tampa.

  36. Clay says:

    vinotintazo: excuse my ignorance, but what happened in 99?

    also Schultz almost scored.

    The year of the “any toe at all in the crease and we call the goal off” rule. Except for the very last goal of the year where Brett Hull had his whole foot in the crease while scoring the Stanley GWG, and they let it go.

    With the replay challenges the way they are this year, what happens if there’s a situation like what happened to Edmonton in LA? They get the call wrong, it decides the cup, and it makes the NHL look stupid.

  37. vinotintazo says:

    Clay: The year of the “any toe at all in the crease and we call the goal off” rule.Except for the very last goal of the year where Brett Hull had his whole foot in the crease while scoring the Stanley GWG, and they let it go.

    With the replay challenges the way they are this year, what happens if there’s a situation like what happened to Edmonton in LA?They get the call wrong, it decides the cup, and it makes the NHL look stupid.

    heh good to know.. thx 🙂

  38. MrEd says:

    Clay,

    Such a terrible shame.

    Refereeing is good for the game.

  39. flyfish1168 says:

    Interesting comment made during Hawks Blues game. Hjalmarsson left hand shot loves playing right side, van Riemsdyk Right hand shot loves playing left side, perfect pairing for the hawks.

    Trade Fayne + draft pick for Hjalmarsson and hawks save 500K

  40. RexLibris says:

    Clay: They get the call wrong, it decides the cup, and it makes the NHL look stupid.

    Well, if the skate boot fits…

  41. RexLibris says:

    vinotintazo: heh good to know.. thx

    Worst part of that is that it stole a Cup away from the Sabres and Hasek. The Little Team that Could against all odds and the big spenders of the NHL who were choking out many of the Canadian teams, except Toronto, of course.

    Hated the Stars heading into that series. Hated them afterwards. Still don’t like them.

    Can’t say I have much love for the Sabres of late, but I loved that 90s squad they had.

    First team to move to a more analytical approach to amateur drafting, if I recall correctly, as a cost-saving measure.

  42. stush18 says:

    Everyone forgets that heading into the draft our defensive left side looked like

    Klef
    Marincin
    Nikitin
    Ference
    Davidson
    Nurse

    Nikitin and ference were both done, we all knew it, and nurse was just leaving junior. Davidson was a complete afterthought, someone who might be able to make the team as an extra if nikitin or ference were injured.

    It was full of mud and shit, and chia made a move for a highly touted dman. As asiaoil(I think, sorry to whoever it actually is?) has posted, we paid in full, but did not overpay.

    For everyone counting players we “could have” taken, who knows if Davidson works as hard as he does this summer if he doesn’t see the path ahead of him so blocked? Maybe nurse doesn’t work as hard. It’s all maybes.

    Chia acquired defensive prospect who is now NHL ready to my eye. Add that to an excellent draft with several dmen having very good years, and this draft was a clear win to me.

  43. vinotintazo says:

    not another shift for schultz after a giveaway early on the 2nd lol

  44. Rondo says:

    Colton Parayko looks good for STL. Think they would trade him

  45. stush18 says:

    Is there any knowledge of chia knowing about paigan, Jones, bear, and Marino from bostons draft? I like greens draft picks and signings usually, but Edmonton doesn’t usually have a strong record in this dept.

  46. vinotintazo says:

    stush18:
    Is there any knowledge of chia knowing about paigan, Jones, bear, and Marino from bostons draft? I like greens draft picks and signings usually, but Edmonton doesn’t usually have a strong record in this dept.

    maybe.. but we’re paying a 2nd rounder for hiring Chia anyway.. so its ok

  47. Gret99zky says:

    The pace and intensity of playoff hockey is incredible.

  48. Chachi says:

    vinotintazo:
    not another shift for schultz after a giveaway early on the 2nd lol

    5:52 in icetime for the game. Hope he enjoyed his time in the NHL and saved his money.

  49. Centre of attention says:

    Did twitter die for anyone else tonight?

  50. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Did twitter die for anyone else tonight?

    Yes. It is back now.

  51. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: Yes. It is back now.

    For a while there was Peace on Earth.

  52. RJ2016 says:

    Boychuk – two 2nds

    Petry – 2nd & a 5th

    Hamilton – 1st & two 2nds

    Reinhart & 3rd – 15th & 28th

    On one side, it’s pretty clear that the two firsts was the highest price paid. On the other, you have three veteran top-4 RHD (which are substantially harder to acquire) and one left-handed Islanders *prospect* who had been passed by on the Islanders’ depth chart.

    And he didn’t even play half the season in Edmonton this year, and he’s unlikely to do so next season either. It was a spectacular overpay.

    stush18:
    Everyone forgets that heading into the draft our defensive left side looked like

    Klef
    Marincin
    Nikitin
    Ference
    Davidson
    Nurse

    Nikitin and ference were both done, we all knew it, and nurse was just leaving junior. Davidson was a complete afterthought, someone who might be able to make the team as an extra if nikitin or ference were injured.

    It was full of mud and shit, and chia made a move for a highly touted dman. As asiaoil(I think, sorry to whoever it actually is?) has posted, we paid in full, but did not overpay.

    For everyone counting players we “could have” taken, who knows if Davidson works as hard as he does this summer if he doesn’t see the path ahead of him so blocked? Maybe nurse doesn’t work as hard. It’s all maybes.

    Chia acquired defensive prospect who is now NHL ready to my eye. Add that to an excellent draft with several dmen having very good years, and this draft was a clear win to me.

  53. BONE207 says:

    Lowetide: Jay Fester has been working here for years.

    I think I caught something from him too. Was feeling pretty sick about this team until the Rexall send off. Good thing for antibiotics in a CR bottle.

  54. BONE207 says:

    vinotintazo:
    not another shift for schultz after a giveaway early on the 2nd lol

    He played the least of anyone in that game. 5 minutes. Just keep on jultzing on…

  55. who says:

    RJ2016:
    Boychuk – two 2nds

    Petry – 2nd & a 5th

    Hamilton – 1st & two 2nds

    Reinhart & 3rd – 15th & 28th

    On one side, it’s pretty clear that the two firsts was the highest price paid. On the other, you have three veteran top-4 RHD (which are substantially harder to acquire) and one left-handed Islanders *prospect* who had been passed by on the Islanders’ depth chart.

    And he didn’t even play half the season in Edmonton this year, and he’s unlikely to do so next season either. It was a spectacular overpay.

    Boy people are never gonna let that trade go. I like Reinhart and think he is going to be a solid top 4 dman. Probably sooner than either one of those draft picks makes an impact. Also the Habs gave those picks for 6 weeks of Petry. If you want to be mad at something you should be pissed they didn’t sign Petry to an extension instead of trade him.

  56. stush18 says:

    RJ2016:
    Boychuk – two 2nds

    Petry – 2nd & a 5th

    Hamilton – 1st & two 2nds

    Reinhart & 3rd – 15th & 28th

    On one side, it’s pretty clear that the two firsts was the highest price paid. On the other, you have three veteran top-4 RHD (which are substantially harder to acquire) and one left-handed Islanders *prospect* who had been passed by on the Islanders’ depth chart.

    And he didn’t even play half the season in Edmonton this year, and he’s unlikely to do so next season either. It was a spectacular overpay.

    Petry and boychuk were UFA rentals that signed with the team that traded for them.

    Chia offered up a better deal for Hamilton than what Calgary did, and Boston turned him down to spite him. Not our fault Boston is ran by idiots.

  57. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    who: If you want to be mad at something you should be pissed they didn’t sign Petry to an extension instead of trade him.

    We are fans of a team that has missed the playoffs for 10 consecutive years. We should be pissed about several things. Let’s not limit ourselves.

  58. Mesmer says:

    I agree with Lowetide on the Reinhart deal: an overpay, full stop. Also, I like the player..
    What is getting so annoying already is the rhetoric on the trade: The Oilers did NOT trade two firsts for Reinhart, they traded a first and a second – what happened to the 33rd afterwards has NOTHING to do with Edmonton. I know you want to make it sound worse, it just takes away from your points, not add to them.
    What is even worse is the rhetoric about “the players we gave up” to get Reinhart. All indications were that the Oilers were going to take a defenseman with the pick and yet we get constant arguments from people (who must choose to ignore this information) about how they gave up Barzal, or Kyle Connor. This ridiculous semantic has to stop. Quit picking the best available player a year after-the-fact and complaining that they gave THAT player up for Griffin. The Oilers, by all indications were not going to draft Barzal or Connor, or whoever is the best player after-the-fact a year from now. They may very well have whiffed on the pick altogether, but if you accept that then I guess it gives you less to bitch about.
    We’ve missed the playoffs for ten years – there are plenty of things based in reality to be depressed about. We don’t need to be making stuff up.

  59. AsiaOil says:

    Sure the Oilers could have kept the picks and gotten more like the following recent 2nd round picks:

    Marco Roy
    Mitch Moroz
    David Musil
    Tyler Pitlick
    Curtis Hamilton
    Roman Tesluk

    That’s a combined 33 NHL games we turned our backs on – insane giving that up.

    How about a few #15 picks:

    Alex Plante
    Jesse Niinimaki

    That’s another 10 combined NHL games. Stop the madness, protect our magic beans!

    RJ2016:
    Boychuk – two 2nds

    Petry – 2nd & a 5th

    Hamilton – 1st & two 2nds

    Reinhart & 3rd – 15th & 28th

    On one side, it’s pretty clear that the two firsts was the highest price paid. On the other, you have three veteran top-4 RHD (which are substantially harder to acquire) and one left-handed Islanders *prospect* who had been passed by on the Islanders’ depth chart.

    And he didn’t even play half the season in Edmonton this year, and he’s unlikely to do so next season either. It was a spectacular overpay.

  60. bbf_iii says:

    On Coach’s Corner last night, Don Cherry said Dylan Larkin is a lock to win the Calder, which is odd. Ron MacLean said that John Klingberg should win it though, which is…odder. Don did say though that McDavid should really win it, because he got “43 points in 45 games.”

    All in all, really strong segment.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ron-don-mcdavid-win-calder/

  61. PhrankLee says:

    Mesmer,

    Hear, hear.

  62. monsterbater says:

    RJ2016:
    Boychuk – two 2nds

    Petry – 2nd & a 5th

    Hamilton – 1st & two 2nds

    Reinhart & 3rd – 15th & 28th

    On one side, it’s pretty clear that the two firsts was the highest price paid. On the other, you have three veteran top-4 RHD (which are substantially harder to acquire) and one left-handed Islanders *prospect* who had been passed by on the Islanders’ depth chart.

    And he didn’t even play half the season in Edmonton this year, and he’s unlikely to do so next season either. It was a spectacular overpay.

    It was the 16th overall and 33rd so that’s actually a 1st and a 2nd.

    As others have mentioned several of these were UFAs, the other and RFA who was likely going to sign an offer sheet within a week and be lost for 2016 picks. Boston made a move to get 2015 picks and decided that they wanted to screw Chia over and take a lesser package from Calgary.

    It’s fine to not like the trade, but the hyperbole is GARGANTUANLY overstated

  63. russ99 says:

    Kind of glad we didn’t sign Stecher.

    We don’t need NCAA defensemen that take 2-3 years to develop and really shouldn’t be rushed on the 50-man list, we need more and better veteran defensemen, and a few draft picks who we don’t have to sign right away.

  64. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    bbf_iii:
    On Coach’s Corner last night, Don Cherry said Dylan Larkin is a lock to win the Calder, which is odd. Ron MacLean said that John Klingberg should win it though, which is…odder. Don did say though that McDavid should really win it, because he got “43 points in 45 games.”

    All in all, really strong segment.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ron-don-mcdavid-win-calder/

    SNL does a regular sketch about “Fox and Friends” where, at the end of the segment the fact checker runs a list of corrections across the screen that are hilarious and absurd. The Canadian version of that sketch might very well revolve around Coach’s Corner.

  65. OF17 says:

    I think for everyone’s sanity we should stop talking about the Reinhart trade. It happened. No one likes the value. Lots of us like the player. Hitting our heads against the table time and time again won’t get us anywhere.

  66. PhrankLee says:

    OF17: No one likes the value.

    I’m happy with the value. On record from the day of the trade. He is on schedule to be a factor and impact player next year.

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