REVIEWING THE 2013 DRAFT (CRAZY TRADE INCLUDED)

We have three years of information now from the 2013 draft, and the NHL players in the selection are making themselves known. At this point, 28 of the 30 first-round picks have played in an NHL game and Edmonton has dressed three of their picks from that draft in the NHL since 2013.

NURSE SPLITS

  • No. 7 overall: D Darnell Nurse. The big, tough and mobile defender played most of the season in the NHL, and (as the graph shows) started well. Edmonton would have done well to give him more time in the AHL (sending him down after 20 games would have been a plan) but they instead attempted to (I think) fast track him. I am still confident he will be an NHL player and some of his rookie comparables (Andrej Sekera, Robyn Regehr) are promising (when using point shares via hockey-reference.com). Like Regehr, I think a lot of Nurse’s value is going to be defensive. Scott Cullen informs us there’s a 90% chance Nurse will be 100 NHL games and the average player at this spot ends up being an NHL regular who spends time as a top 6D or better.
  • No. 56 overall: C Marco Roy. In many ways Roy is the forgotten prospect in the 2013 draft, partly because he wasn’t signed (he is on an AHL deal) and partly because the Q is a tough league to find out (in the west). He went 41, 8-12-20 in his first season with Bakersfield—and 2-7-9 with 15 shots in his final six games. Seems reasonable to still count him as a disappointment, but he wrote an interesting story this season. NHLE: 19 points.

yakimov williams

  • No. 83 overall: C Bogdan Yakimov. Scott Cullen’s study shows a 24% chance for Yakimov to play 100 NHL games and the average player at this spot is a minor leaguer who plays fewer than 50 games in the show. He had a good AHL debut in 2014-15 (57, 12-16-28) and this year divided time between the KHL (11, 3-1-4) and AHL (35, 5-10-15). A giant (6.05, 232) center, he would seem to be a useful player when he develops, but the offense didn’t spike in year two. NHLE: 17 points.
  • No. 88 overall: L Anton Slepyshev. He is probably the most talented skill winger in the system at this time. The Russian is wrapping up a frustrating season in promising fashion. Made the big club out of camp, but was demoted and then slumped in Bakersfield. An injury derailed his AHL season (48, 13-8-21, NHLE: 17 points) but he ended the year 18, 6-6-12 (pending tonight). Scott Cullen’s study has a 24% chance for the Russian to play 100 NHL games and the average player at this spot is a minor league forward who plays fewer than 50 games in the league. I think he might be a player.
  • No. 94 overall: R Jackson Houck. He spent his final junior season with Vancouver and Calgary, scoring at a point per game with the Hitmen. Signed an ATO with the San Antonio Ramage after the year ended and he has played three games with them. He has a 24.5% chance at 100 NHL games based on Cullen’s math (a better chance than the Russians, a strange reflection of past success) and the average for this draft slot is minor leaguer who spends 50 games in the NHL.
  • No. 96 overall: C Kyle Platzer. Platzer did not post impressive boxcars as an AHL rookie (47, 5-11-16. NHLE: 13). His defensive ability was a known item on draft day, so we could be looking at a real two-way find in the fourth round of the 2013 draft—but he needs to deliver more offense next year. Scott Cullen’s study has a 24.5% chance at 100 NHL games and the average player at this spot is a minor leaguer who plays fewer than 50 games in the league.
  • No. 113 overall: L Aidan Muir. The big winger had a good NCAA debut in 2014-15, but could not follow it up this season (35, 2-6-8). He was No. 8 in team scoring last year, just No. 12 this time around—that usually means he lost playing time to someone. Not promising. NHLE:8 points.
  • No. 128 overall: L Evan Campbell. In 2014-15, he had a solid-to-good NCAA season as a sophomore, posting enough points to rank No. 4 in team scoring. Like Muir, he took a step down this year (28, 5-7-12. NHLE: 13 points) and at 23 will need to spike in a big way in his final college season. The Oilers prospect has a 16% chance at 100 NHL games and the average for this draft slot is minor leaguer who spends 10-50 games in the NHL.
  • No. 158 overall: D Ben Betker. Betker is a mountain on skates, has some mobility and worked his way from the ECHL (49, 3-14-17. NHLE: 6 points) to the AHL (14, 0-2-2). Edmonton’s newest giant has a 15% chance at 100 NHL games, average is minor leaguer who spends 10-50 games in the NHL.
  • No. 188 overall: R Greg Chase. I thought he would play more in the AHL (19, 1-6-7. NHE: 14) but the heart of his winter came in Norfolk (43, 18-19-37. NHLE: 16). He has a unique skill set among Oilers prospects and that style should appeal to Chiarelli and McLellan. The extra TOI in the ECHL may benefit him next season in the AHL. Chase has a 10% chance at 100 NHL games and the average for this late pick is minor league forward who gets 10-50 games in the NHL.

As you might expect, the number of players we can count as real NHL prospects is dwindling after year three—I think reasonably we can count Nurse, Yakimov and Slepyshev in that category. The rest are curios until further notice but there are some fun follows like Platzer, Betker and Chase. A big season for all in 2016-17.

HOW IS THAT CRAZY TRADE GOING?

As a reminder, the trades were:

  • First trade: Edmonton trades 37th overall (Valentin Zykov) to Los Angeles for 57th overall (William Carrier), 88th overall (Anton Slephyshev) and 96th overall (Kyle Platzer).
  • Second trade: Oilers trade 57th overall (William Carrier) to St. Louis for 83rd overall (Bogdan Yakimov), 94th overall (Jackson Houck) and 113th overall (Aidan Muir).
  1. William Carrier (AHL) 56, 13-17-30 (NHLE: 21)
  2. Anton Slepyshev (AHL) 48, 13-8-21 (NHLE: 17) (Also played 11 NHL games)
  3. Bogdan Yakimov (AHL) 35, 5-10-15 (NHLE: 17) (Also played in the KHL)
  4. Kyle Platzer (AHL) 47, 5-11-16 (NHLE: 13)
  5. Valentin Zykov (AHL) 45, 7-7-14 (NHLE: 12) (Also traded to Carolina)
  6. Aidan Muir (NCAA) 35, 2-6-8 (NHLE: 8)
  7. Jackson Houck: Unsigned, played at 20 in the WHL.

ESTIMATED POINTS-PER-60

  • Carrier 2.109
  • Slepyshev 1.894
  • Yakimov 1.862
  • Zykov 1.435
  • Platzer 1.394
  • Source

Carrier (now with Buffalo Sabres) is emerging as the best option from the group, but the two Russians and Platzer should make this interesting. After three years of watching this trade, still no clear winner in my opinion. Reasonable bet by MacTavish at the time, remains a decent one now. Yakimov photo by Mark Williams.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

33 Responses to "REVIEWING THE 2013 DRAFT (CRAZY TRADE INCLUDED)"

  1. AsiaOil says:

    Well I got inspired by GMoney today and did a bit of thinking.

    Seems like I’m picking on Eberle constantly – but it’s really just the non-stop pumping of a good (but flawed) player as “elite” on this site and others through the use of simple box cars while ignoring every other part of the game that bugs me. I’m not going to get into the other parts of his game because these are obvious. Ebs is small, non-physical, of limited effectiveness in terms of puck retrieval in the offensive zone, and a reluctant back checker. None of this is news and a lot of it is forgiven by supposedly being an elite scorer. The “most valuable talent” according to some. So let’s look at this scoring issue.

    If you just look at simple box cars without correcting for ice time and special team usage Ebs looks great – #6 over the past 5 years and up there with some serious names:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skatersummary&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=points&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&pos=R

    But of course you do have to consider ice time to get a more accurate picture of value – and if you use points/60 (40 games or more) then Ebs slips down a bit to #9 – but still in solid company

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skaterscoring&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=pointsPer60Minutes&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&pos=R

    Finally we all know power play time can pump offensive numbers and skew relative value – so let’s consider a level playing field by evaluating his even strength points per 60.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=RW&f7=30-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    Ebs is listed a center for some bizarre reason on WOI and not on that list – but his ESP/60 was 1.95 last year which would place him at #20. Looking less elite I’d say and clearly behind guys like Kane/Tank/Jagr/Wheeler who are all above 2.5 (some guy named Hemsky also looks pretty darn good). Boyes/Atkinson/Gallager are also well above Ebs in the 2.35-2.240 range – and these are guys I compare with Eberle. It’s not like this past season is some sort of anomaly either. Eberle has been on a downward trajectory since his single big year in 2011-12. Here is his ESP/60 for the last 6 years

    2010-11 – 1.79 (rookie)
    2011-12 – 3.08
    2012-13 – 2.31
    2013-14 – 2.03
    2014-15 – 1.97
    2015-16 – 1.95

    But you can say “Asiaoil he’s a power play wizard with that shot and you can’t ignore that”. Well that’s not true either as his PPP/60 is 3.69 and only #28 among RW last year playing more than 40 games.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v4&f4=RW&f7=40-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    So here’s the deal folks. To me this player looks like a guy who is pretty one dimensional and has numbers which can be framed as “elite” if all you do is talk about boxcars and ignore ice time and usage. Those numbers are being driven by massive ice time with top line mates and especially heaps of PP time. Guys like Atkinson or Gallagher would do as well or better with similar usage. Add on a $6 million cap hit and it’s a no brainer that you deal him this summer as you can replace him with a better rounded player from the Pouliot/Hemsky tree for $2 million less. I deal him and not worry about it for a second. I think they will deal him and there will be howls the return is a less than elite player – but these numbers are out there and people do watch the games. Be prepared.

    PS – MacT/Lowe can go straight to hades for throwing Hemsky away for nothing. Looking a the numbers it was almost as bad as what they did to Petry.

  2. AsiaOil says:

    Sorry for the thread jack LT – Nurse was a good pick but the Finn was likely be better – but that would have been a tough choice. Who knows Roy might be a callup in another year if he continues to progress. Never enough centers and he could go Brodziak on us – a guy to keep an eye on.

  3. Doug McLachlan says:

    AsiaOil,

    Nurse brings a certain psychopathy that Risto doesn’t have in his game. I think that was a part of the appeal to MacT and part of why Chia is reluctant to deal him.

  4. Water Fire says:

    AsiaOil:
    Well I got inspired by GMoney today and did a bit of thinking.

    Seems like I’m picking on Eberle constantly – but it’s really just the non-stop pumping of a good (but flawed) player as “elite” on this site and others through the use of simple box cars while ignoring every other part of the game that bugs me. I’m not going to get into the other parts of his game because these are obvious. Ebs is small, non-physical, of limited effectiveness in terms of puck retrieval in the offensive zone, and a reluctant back checker. None of this is news and a lot of it is forgiven by supposedly being an elite scorer. The “most valuable talent” according to some. So let’s look at this scoring issue.

    If you just look at simple box cars without correcting for ice time and special team usage Ebs looks great – #6 over the past 5 years and up there with some serious names:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skatersummary&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=points&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&pos=R

    But of course you do have to consider ice time to get a more accurate picture of value – and if you use points/60 (40 games or more) then Ebs slips down a bit to #9 – but still in solid company

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skaterscoring&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=pointsPer60Minutes&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&pos=R

    Finally we all know power play time can pump offensive numbers and skew relative value – so let’s consider a level playing field by evaluating his even strength points per 60.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=RW&f7=30-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    Ebs is listed a center for some bizarre reason on WOI and not on that list – but his ESP/60 was 1.95 last year which would place him at #20. Looking less elite I’d say and clearly behind guys like Kane/Tank/Jagr/Wheeler who are all above 2.5 (some guy named Hemsky also looks pretty darn good). Boyes/Atkinson/Gallager are also well above Ebs in the 2.35-2.240 range – and these are guys I compare with Eberle. It’s not like this past season is some sort of anomaly either. Eberle has been on a downward trajectory since his single big year in 2011-12. Here is his ESP/60 for the last 6 years

    2010-11 – 1.79 (rookie)
    2011-12 – 3.08
    2012-13 – 2.31
    2013-14 – 2.03
    2014-15 – 1.97
    2015-16 – 1.95

    But you can say “Asiaoil he’s a power play wizard with that shot and you can’t ignore that”. Well that’s not true either as his PPP/60 is 3.69 and only #28 among RW last year playing more than 40 games.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v4&f4=RW&f7=40-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    So here’s the deal folks. To me this player looks like a guy who is pretty one dimensional and has numbers which can be framed as “elite” if all you do is talk about boxcars and ignore ice time and usage. Those numbers are being driven by massive ice time with top line mates and especially heaps of PP time. Guys like Atkinson or Gallagher would do as well or better with similar usage. Add on a $6 million cap hit and it’s a no brainer that you deal him this summer as you can replace him with a better rounded player from the Pouliot/Hemsky tree for $2 million less. I deal him and not worry about it for a second. I think they will deal him and there will be howls the return is a less than elite player – but these numbers are out there and people do watch the games. Be prepared.

    PS – MacT/Lowe can go straight to hades for throwing Hemsky away for nothing. Looking a the numbers it was almost as bad as what they did to Petry.

    Nice post.

    As for Hemsky and Petry – “the team is bad, and the best players aren’t perfect or big or mean, so let’s ignore the roster issues and deals that didn’t work (but not figure out why) and trade them for diddly squat and fix the problem.

    Wisdom has always been the hardest part of life.

  5. AsiaOil says:

    You know what Nurse might end up being…..a Gator for the modern NHL. Smith was a leader and nasty piece of business built for the 90s game where passing and skating were less of an issue. Nurse has the skating and should be a decent passer in time – and may become a model for the modern defensive defenseman who can play in the top pairs. Don’t expect a ton of offense but will be happy with 20 points a year if he’s elite everywhere else.

    Doug McLachlan:
    AsiaOil,

    Nurse brings a certain psychopathy that Risto doesn’t have in his game.I think that was a part of the appeal to MacT and part of why Chia is reluctant to deal him.

  6. Stelio Kontos says:

    In retrospect, the general consensus was half right. Nichuskin wasn’t BPA, but Reijo was best Dman so far.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    In retrospect, the general consensus was half right. Nichuskin wasn’t BPA, but Reijo was best Dman so far.

    Wait. five. years.

  8. Fog of Warts says:

    AsiaOil: MacT/Lowe can go straight to Hades for throwing Hemsky away for nothing.

    Let’s be clear about one thing: MacT traded Hemmer + multiple years of acid-drip fan outrage for a lousy bag of pucks.

    Around these parts there’s a fairly lengthy list of players shipped out for dimes or pennies on the dollar where a kvetchy component of the fan base turned against the player long before the GM decided to carve the final out.

    Moral of the story: be careful what you bitch for.

    Here’s the problem. Not enough people in the stands went home with bloody noses for calling Hemmer “soft”. After spreading the news, you then hand the guy (or gal) a giant facial band-aid and a T-shirt emblazoned “I called Hemsky soft” to wear on the way home (so as not to get blood on their favourite Roughneck Riot rodeo rag—we’re just trying to politely make a point, not ruining their reason to live).

    So there you have it. Start spreading the news. Problem solved.

  9. Stelio Kontos says:

    Lowetide: Wait. five. years.

    NEVER!!!!

  10. geowal says:

    No. 158 overall: D Ben Betker. Betker is a mountain on skates, has some mobility and worked his way from the ECHL (49, 3-14-17. NHLE: 6 points) to the NHL

    Just a typo for you: Betker AHL

    I still hold a lot of hope for Betker, will just take a while. Really for me, and I think many around here, this is the most exciting draft in a long time in terms of the guys drafted post round two. Probably heavily skewed by Chase’s first training camp.
    These are my musings while sitting in some pub in Mississauga. Where my observation, after being in a previous place: it is soooo much harder to get a microbrew around here, I don’t think this draft selection would stand in many places in Edmonton or Calgary, odd. I know there’s a lot around here, they just don’t seem to penetrate the market as throughly as back home. Seems most places in Edmonton you can get an alley Kat (or something) and a wild rose or village most places in Calgary.

  11. Lowetide says:

    geowal:
    No. 158 overall: D Ben Betker. Betker is a mountain on skates, has some mobility and worked his way from the ECHL (49, 3-14-17. NHLE: 6 points) to the NHL

    Just a typo for you: Betker AHL

    No, Betker played 49 games in the ECHL
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=147481

  12. geowal says:

    Lowetide: No, Betker played 49 games in the ECHL
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=147481

    Agreed, but I don’t recall seeing him in the NHL…or am I being dense?

  13. Lowetide says:

    Platzer scored tonight, 2-2 late in the third.

  14. Lowetide says:

    geowal: Agreed, but I don’t recall seeing him in the NHL…or am I being dense?

    NHLE is NHL equivalency.

  15. geowal says:

    Lowetide: NHLE is NHL equivalency.

    Okay, reads to me like he played 14 NHL games…

    “(49, 3-14-17. NHLE: 6 points) to the NHL (14, 0-2-2). ”

    edit: first time around I should have copied a little more, sorry for the confusion!

  16. Lowetide says:

    geowal: Okay, reads to me like he played 14 NHL games…

    “(49, 3-14-17. NHLE: 6 points) to the NHL (14, 0-2-2). ”

    edit: first time around I should have copied a little more, sorry for the confusion!

    No worries, I could have been more clear.

  17. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    Such as by writing “to the AHL”, which is clearly what you meant, instead of “to the NHL”?

  18. Lowetide says:

    Final goal of the Condors season is Hunt from Ford, Condors win. Worthless goal for the future, but that is what Edmonton’s farm team does. Lordy.

  19. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Lowetide,

    Such as by writing “to the AHL”, which is clearly what you meant, instead of “to the NHL”?

    Bah! Sorry guys. Slow on the uptake. Fixed now.

  20. geowal says:

    Lowetide: Bah! Sorry guys. Slow on the uptake. Fixed now.

    So many posts for one little letter!

  21. Lowetide says:

    geowal: So many posts for one little letter!

    Its like I am trying an outlet pass and it keeps coming back!

  22. Hockey Buddha says:

    I think the Oilers likely have the best player of the bunch in Slepyshev, although he sure came off the rails for a long while after being sent to Bakersfield. Yak and Platzer also make me think that Edmonton wins that deal, but it’s still a wait-and-see at this point.

  23. Stelio Kontos says:

    Also 5 years doesn’t matter, the Finn is RH.

    Rule should be amended.

  24. G Money says:

    AsiaOil: Well I got inspired by GMoney today and did a bit of thinking.

    I’m not sure how I inspired the post, but if I did, given the detail and thoroughness I’m very happy about it!

    AsiaOil: Ebs is listed a center for some bizarre reason on WOI and not on that list

    A side note on this – you’ll see the same thing in my post games. It is because Ebs was listed as a C by the NHL when he entered the league, and it seems once you’ve been classified in a position, you stay there no matter what. Here for example is the roster report from the Rexall VAN game: http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20152016/RO021201.HTM

    That’s where both WOI and I scrape our roster data from, so both have him listed as a C.

    I will be updating my scripts over the summer to use the new NHL data feeds, which rather than having a separate roster report, embed the roster in the live game feed. Interestingly, these all have Ebs correctly listed as RW.

    AsiaOil: To me this player looks like a guy who is pretty one dimensional and has numbers which can be framed as “elite” if all you do is talk about boxcars and ignore ice time and usage. Those numbers are being driven by massive ice time with top line mates and especially heaps of PP time. Guys like Atkinson or Gallagher would do as well or better with similar usage.

    I get where you’re coming from, and I do think Ebs is one of the more likely guys heading out.

    That said, you could never accuse me of not being a fan of Eberle and his world class hands, and one of the things to watch out for is the idea that ‘numbers are driven by massive ice time’.

    Yes, that can be true, but it can also be the case that he gets that high ice time and the cherry PP time precisely because he can do something with it.

    Or to put it the reverse way, it’s not axiomatic that someone with less ice time on other teams would be able to linearly improve their numbers with more ice time – especially since scoring on the PP is a different skill (hello Taylor Hall), and for the new guy coming in, that added 5v5 ice time will often mean facing tougher competition (and in Edmonton’s case, almost certainly with a much poorer defense behind them).

  25. mustang says:

    The Oilers need to watch the series between the Kings and Sharks. They are so far away from playing and competing at this level. Not even remotely close right now. Need to take note how hard they compete

  26. AsiaOil says:

    G Money,

    Believe it or not I like Eberle but I get so damned pissed off that he’s been floating the last few years instead of working his ass off to get stronger and becoming a guy you can trust defensively. Nobody expects him to crush guys – just work hard on the offensive boards and backcheck like like bugger. Seems fair for $6 million a year and it’s simply 100% effort. Would also be nice if he worked on developing a one timer over the long summers he’s enjoyed over the past 6 years. But since he hasn’t done any of this – last resort is public shaming – which he gotten plenty of as the season went on. But he just looked dumbfounded this year when people called out his shoddy play in interviews – couldn’t bring himself to own up on nights where his defensive play was positively putrid. Probably too late as the final 20 games looked like a massive pump as even the dumbest plays couldn’t get him off McDavid’s wing. Too bad. If skated/worked half as hard backchecking as he skates/works going in the offensive zone – he’d be a hell of a player for a long time. Yeah that’s basically what Hrudey was saying – but even a blind squirrel find a nut occasionally.

  27. lynn says:

    Jujhar Khaira had nine fights for the Condors this season. He will be a shutdown winger or centre on the fourth line for the Oilers, who will stand up for his teammates. Will it be next year or the following year? He will also chip in with the occasional goal and assist–15 points a season is my guess.

  28. MrEd says:

    Good call by the NHL on the the goal review (Stars vs. Wild). Counts in the spirit of the game for sure. Unitl we have lazers and chips and instant feeds…

  29. MrEd says:

    Nice seeing Hemmer, Gags, Dubs, Chimera… part of the reel…

  30. Richard S.S. says:

    What happened to the Season?
    Inadequate Backup Goalies wasted 29 games.
    Top Players missed about 130 games, while others added to the total.
    Top Players underachieved by perhaps 30 % or more.
    Lack of concentration. just to name a few things.

  31. OF17 says:

    Watching Washington, the biggest difference between us and them is their RHD. It makes such a huge difference not only in transition but also once they’re set up in the zone, especially on the PP.

    Ovechkin gets most of the credit for Washington’s PP success, and he of course deserves a huge chunk of it, but the reason he’s so consistently open is because of the one-timer threat from the point off a Backstrom pass. At every moment, key offensive players have at least two options dangerous enough that the other team wants to cover them. If Backstrom has the puck, he has Carlson and Ovechkin as one-timer threats and a man down low to cycle. If Carlson gets the puck, he has a good enough shot that it needs to be respected plus Ovechkin on one side and Backstrom on the other. Ovechkin of course has the shot and Carlson open, and he has a tendency to hard rim the puck to Backstrom if neither he nor Carlson have space. It’s a wonderful setup that leads to a ton of shots and chances, and no wonder it’s so successful.

    Compare that to the Oilers, and we have 3 great options for the Backstrom role in McDavid, Nuge, and Draisaitl and Eberle playing the left side down low (no Ovechkin, but pretty damn good), but we’re missing that critical piece up top that ties all the options together. Throw Vatanen up there and it gives Nuge more space to work on the wall, Eberle a better chance of getting a nice pass from the point, more space in the slot with the defender up higher, plus having an actual point shot makes better use of Maroon in front. It would change everything, and if you add Laine in the Ovechkin spot as well, you finally have a PP where everyone’s strengths are in line with each other.

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    AsiaOil:
    Well I got inspired by GMoney today and did a bit of thinking.

    Seems like I’m picking on Eberle constantly – but it’s really just the non-stop pumping of a good (but flawed) player as “elite” on this site and others through the use of simple box cars while ignoring every other part of the game that bugs me. I’m not going to get into the other parts of his game because these are obvious. Ebs is small, non-physical, of limited effectiveness in terms of puck retrieval in the offensive zone, and a reluctant back checker. None of this is news and a lot of it is forgiven by supposedly being an elite scorer. The “most valuable talent” according to some. So let’s look at this scoring issue.

    If you just look at simple box cars without correcting for ice time and special team usage Ebs looks great – #6 over the past 5 years and up there with some serious names:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skatersummary&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=points&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&pos=R

    But of course you do have to consider ice time to get a more accurate picture of value – and if you use points/60 (40 games or more) then Ebs slips down a bit to #9 – but still in solid company

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skaterscoring&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=pointsPer60Minutes&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&pos=R

    Finally we all know power play time can pump offensive numbers and skew relative value – so let’s consider a level playing field by evaluating his even strength points per 60.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=RW&f7=30-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    Ebs is listed a center for some bizarre reason on WOI and not on that list – but his ESP/60 was 1.95 last year which would place him at #20. Looking less elite I’d say and clearly behind guys like Kane/Tank/Jagr/Wheeler who are all above 2.5 (some guy named Hemsky also looks pretty darn good). Boyes/Atkinson/Gallager are also well above Ebs in the 2.35-2.240 range – and these are guys I compare with Eberle. It’s not like this past season is some sort of anomaly either. Eberle has been on a downward trajectory since his single big year in 2011-12. Here is his ESP/60 for the last 6 years

    2010-11 – 1.79 (rookie)
    2011-12 – 3.08
    2012-13 – 2.31
    2013-14 – 2.03
    2014-15 – 1.97
    2015-16 – 1.95

    But you can say “Asiaoil he’s a power play wizard with that shot and you can’t ignore that”. Well that’s not true either as his PPP/60 is 3.69 and only #28 among RW last year playing more than 40 games.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v4&f4=RW&f7=40-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    So here’s the deal folks. To me this player looks like a guy who is pretty one dimensional and has numbers which can be framed as “elite” if all you do is talk about boxcars and ignore ice time and usage. Those numbers are being driven by massive ice time with top line mates and especially heaps of PP time. Guys like Atkinson or Gallagher would do as well or better with similar usage. Add on a $6 million cap hit and it’s a no brainer that you deal him this summer as you can replace him with a better rounded player from the Pouliot/Hemsky tree for $2 million less. I deal him and not worry about it for a second. I think they will deal him and there will be howls the return is a less than elite player – but these numbers are out there and people do watch the games. Be prepared.

    PS – MacT/Lowe can go straight to hades for throwing Hemsky away for nothing. Looking a the numbers it was almost as bad as what they did to Petry.

    AsiaOil:
    Well I got inspired by GMoney today and did a bit of thinking.

    Seems like I’m picking on Eberle constantly – but it’s really just the non-stop pumping of a good (but flawed) player as “elite” on this site and others through the use of simple box cars while ignoring every other part of the game that bugs me. I’m not going to get into the other parts of his game because these are obvious. Ebs is small, non-physical, of limited effectiveness in terms of puck retrieval in the offensive zone, and a reluctant back checker. None of this is news and a lot of it is forgiven by supposedly being an elite scorer. The “most valuable talent” according to some. So let’s look at this scoring issue.

    If you just look at simple box cars without correcting for ice time and special team usage Ebs looks great – #6 over the past 5 years and up there with some serious names:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skatersummary&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=points&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&pos=R

    But of course you do have to consider ice time to get a more accurate picture of value – and if you use points/60 (40 games or more) then Ebs slips down a bit to #9 – but still in solid company

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&report=skaterscoring&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&sort=pointsPer60Minutes&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&pos=R

    Finally we all know power play time can pump offensive numbers and skew relative value – so let’s consider a level playing field by evaluating his even strength points per 60.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v5&f4=RW&f7=30-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    Ebs is listed a center for some bizarre reason on WOI and not on that list – but his ESP/60 was 1.95 last year which would place him at #20. Looking less elite I’d say and clearly behind guys like Kane/Tank/Jagr/Wheeler who are all above 2.5 (some guy named Hemsky also looks pretty darn good). Boyes/Atkinson/Gallager are also well above Ebs in the 2.35-2.240 range – and these are guys I compare with Eberle. It’s not like this past season is some sort of anomaly either. Eberle has been on a downward trajectory since his single big year in 2011-12. Here is his ESP/60 for the last 6 years

    2010-11 – 1.79 (rookie)
    2011-12 – 3.08
    2012-13 – 2.31
    2013-14 – 2.03
    2014-15 – 1.97
    2015-16 – 1.95

    But you can say “Asiaoil he’s a power play wizard with that shot and you can’t ignore that”. Well that’s not true either as his PPP/60 is 3.69 and only #28 among RW last year playing more than 40 games.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=8&s=20&f1=2015_s&f2=5v4&f4=RW&f7=40-&f8=1&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+17+18+19+20

    So here’s the deal folks. To me this player looks like a guy who is pretty one dimensional and has numbers which can be framed as “elite” if all you do is talk about boxcars and ignore ice time and usage. Those numbers are being driven by massive ice time with top line mates and especially heaps of PP time. Guys like Atkinson or Gallagher would do as well or better with similar usage. Add on a $6 million cap hit and it’s a no brainer that you deal him this summer as you can replace him with a better rounded player from the Pouliot/Hemsky tree for $2 million less. I deal him and not worry about it for a second. I think they will deal him and there will be howls the return is a less than elite player – but these numbers are out there and people do watch the games. Be prepared.

    PS – MacT/Lowe can go straight to hades for throwing Hemsky away for nothing. Looking a the numbers it was almost as bad as what they did to Petry.

    I know this is inconceivable, but maybe this somehow just possibly illustrates the limitations of advanced stats. The way I see it, Hemsky has done absolutely squat in the last five years other than a 20-game stretch with Ottawa. In the last five years, Hemsjy has scored 56 goals, hardly remarkable. Yet during that same span Eberle has 127. Last time I looked the games are decided by goals, not goals per 60. I took Dallas about 20 games to figure out Hemsky and move him to the third line. Although advanced stats are obviously useful, they don’t always paint a complete picture.

  33. CockyHockey says:

    AsiaOil,

    Agreed, how could Eberle NOT have improved (or even obtained) a one timer in the last 6 years!

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca