RE 15-16 JORDAN EBERLE: HASN’T HIT ME YET

I will tell you that loss never gets easy, but it does become familiar as time goes on. There is a strange emotion that recalls all the moments of loss that came before. The feeling usually arrives when new routine begins again. As weird as it sounds, there is some comfort there, a rush of memories great and small. Damndest thing. (Hasn’t Hit Me Yet)

JORDAN EBERLE 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.82 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.94 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 8th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 8.7 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 49.3% (8th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 51.6% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 158/11.4% (5th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 68gp, 18-25-43 (led the team in points as a rookie)

JORDAN EBERLE 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 3.08 (1st among regular F’s, 2nd in NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.77 (4th among regular F’s)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.7 (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 60.7 % (2nd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 54.5% (best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/18.9% (1st among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 78, 34-42-76 (led the team in points for 2nd year in a row)

JORDAN EBERLE 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.31 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.46 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (top line opp)
  • Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 21.9 (best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 51.1% (5th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 50.0% (8th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 133/12.03% (3rd among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 16-21-37

JORDAN EBERLE 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.03 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.72 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards (2nd line opp)
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.3 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 46.3
  • Corsi for % Rel 5×5: +2.9
  • Zone Start: 55.8% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 47.2% (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 200/14% (1st among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 80, 28-37-65

JORDAN EBERLE 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.97 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.85 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.4
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.7
  • Zone Start: 63.7
  • Zone Finish: 56.2
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 183/13.1%
  • Boxcars: 81, 24-39-63

JORDAN EBERLE 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.85 (5th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.17 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.9
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.4
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 173/14.5
  • Boxcars: 69, 25-22-47

WAR ON ICE PLAYER CHART

war on ice sledgehammer

RE 15-16 PREDICTION: 80GP, 28-38-66 .825

RE 15-16 ACTUAL: 69GP, 25-22-47 .681

  1. Sounds like the end of something. I think so, yes. Peter Chiarelli will need to give in order to get and a winger is easier to replace than a center.
  2. Why did it get this way? For some reason, the Oilers’ brass decided about 2010 to collect draft picks, sign over-the-hill free agents and stay in a holding pattern. When the time came to add real free agents, they had to overpay and those vets could not push the results. And if anyone was any damned good, they would trade them for picks. Penner to Petry, cradle to grave.
  3. And? Well, I think they had something with Renney, but Steve Tambellini decided to go fishing with Ralph and his big brain. After that, it was a mess and that’s for sure.
  4. What kind of season did Eberle have? The usual, fine goal-scorer—he is No. 12 all-time on the Oilers list after six seasons—and he settled in after a slow start.
  5. How slow? He was 12gp, 3-0-3 in November and then 57GP, 22-22-44 the rest of the way. He is a consistent scorer, those guys have value.
  6. Aside from the goals, what else does he bring? Shoots right.
  7. Good grief. Seriously, on this team that is an advantage. Oilers need more righties, not fewer.
  8. Anything else? Sublime passer, they all are and it is an underrated skill. Once they get the puck heading north, these cats can move the puck. Take a pass, make a pass, grow a brain. That should be the first lesson of hockey.
  9. Did he post any career highs, or did the injury derail everything? His 14.5 shooting percentage was his highest since 2011-12, but only slightly above career average. He can shoot the damned biscuit.
  10. Blocks? 23, lowest total in years.
  11. What about the injury? It was a nothing play, I was at the game. A push, happens all the time. What a stupid year.
  12. Anything else unusual about the stats? Well, he posted a good 5×4/60 but his power-play assists were way down. Eberle is a finisher, but like Hall, he can send those lovely passes too. I do not have an answer for why his assist total went from 15 to 4.
  13. He spent hours dusting off the damned puck! He did seem to have the yips late in the year, that’s for sure. I doubt it is going to be his signature move, things happen. Brain cramp or some such.
  14. How many good years does he have left? Oh hell, a ton. The man is 25.
  15. And yet you want to trade him. Sad, really. Eberle is the guy who was supposed to stay for the duration, I pegged him as the Johnny Bucyk of this Oilers teams miles ago. May not work that way, depending on how things roll this summer.
  16. Didn’t Bucyk start in Detroit, then Boston? Sure, but Bruce is the only guy who knows that, and he won’t tell on me.
  17. What’s the best thing you could tell a stranger about Eberle. He’s a consistent offensive player and can be productive on a line that doesn’t house his team’s best player (proved that in 2014-15).
  18. Why doesn’t he get more attention? Oilers lose a lot, that craters all values, it just does. Plus, he’s played a lot of his career with No. 1 overall picks, those guys get a lot of attention.
  19. Who did he play well with last season? Well, let me tell you. He was over 50 percent with pretty much everyone, and here are his 5×5/60s: McDavid 2.64; Nuge 2.23; Maroon 2.07; Pouliot 2.04. Silly good. Only played with Hall-Leon when he arrived back (iirc) and they were not good together, but would be if all the pistons are firing.
  20. Where could he thrive? Anywhere they have a center who can dish. Honestly, he would probably fit most of the eastern seaboard really well, Ottawa, Montreal, Florida. Jordan Eberle is a very good scorer.
  21. Who are his comparables. Six years in, the list of comps includes Ales Hemsky, Mike Richards, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene. They are all good hockey players.
  22. How many more years on this contract for Eberle? Three.
  23. He is the most obvious $6 million to trade, isn’t he? Yes, although it creates a big hole the moment he is dealt.
  24. So why do it? I expect Edmonton would like to win the lottery and use that pick, or maybe No. 2 overall. I don’t think the preference is to trade any of the $6 million men.
  25. Any other preferred trades? Maybe Pouliot, they could deal him and run Hall—Maroon—Korpikoski—Hendricks but that is awful.
  26. Why Eberle? Well, it is easier to replace Eberle and sign Eriksson or Okposo or Brouwer or Vanek. You can trade Hall if you know Lucic is coming (I would not do that, bet Chiarelli would love to bring Lucic here), and you could trade Nuge if you knew David Krejci was on the way. I think a lot of what we are doing is pissing in the wind, because PC will know who he has a good chance to land and we do not.
  27. So, then why talk about Eberle being traded? I am playing the odds, which is reasonable. These are reasonable expectations after all.
  28. So, in your estimation, Eberle is the most likely to go? Yes. Chiarelli would know that Hall pushes the river and that along with McDavid can give Edmonton superior forwards for over half the game. That is either two scoring lines or one stunning, hopped up line. Hall and Leon looked good much of last season, but Hall and Leon and Nuge looked fantastic. So, if that is the case, then it is a matter of finding wingers for McDavid. Maroon is one, with Pouliot as a solid LW option. Getting the RW, should they choose to deal Eberle, is the lesser of all other evils.
  29. Is there any way to keep all of the $6M men? Sure. Sign Jason Demers, keep Mark Fayne and put Brandon Davidson on the third pairing with Darnell Nurse. Klefbom—Demers, Sekera—Fayne, Nurse—Davidson. You still need a hammer from the point, though, and I stand alone on this blog in defense of Mark Fayne so we all know where that conversation will go in the comments section. I imagine that is why we heard the name Dennis Wideman last week. Chiarelli is exploring all avenues. This thing isn’t over yet.
  30. It is the one year anniversary of the McDavid lottery. It changed everything. Since the McDavid lottery win, Edmonton has a new GM, new coach and have added up the middle with Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Eric Gryba, Griffin Reinhart, Mark Letestu and of course McDavid.
  31. Where were you? Right here, in this chair. It was Saturday late afternoon, I had a glass of wine in my hand. I had just written a mock draft but had to throw a post up and re-do the mock. The comments in both threads are a blast.
  32. Why this song? The great thing about Blue Rodeo is that most of their songs are about endings, so this could have been any number of selections. I chose this one because it has that feel of inevitability, the die is cast. And as much as I love Jim Cuddy’s voice, there is a resignation in Greg Keelor’s vocal that is a perfect fit here. There are some great lines, but the song itself has that melancholy feel that I believe will surround Eberle (should he be dealt this summer). It should have worked out, he is a helluva player. You say that you’re leaving, that comes as no surprise.

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111 Responses to "RE 15-16 JORDAN EBERLE: HASN’T HIT ME YET"

  1. Lowetide says:

    This morning at 10 on the Lowdown, TSN1260.

    1. Scott Burnside, ESPN. A big night in Philly, crazy days in California.
    2. Antony Bent. Spurs still have a chance!
    3. Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue and The SuperFan. Lauri Korpikoski and his year, fixing the defense and where was Sunil on lottery day a year ago.
    4. Open Mic: Where were YOU on lottery day last year?

    10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

  2. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    My wife went into labour with our oldest the night HOPE debued. We had a TV in the pre-labour room where I spent several hours rubbing her back and grinning at the TV. We moved to the delivery suite just as the third period was about to get started. I walked her in there, arm in arm, and in one of the stupider moments of my life commented (out loud by gawd) that there wasn’t a TV in the room.

    You’ve never seen a glare quite like the one I got at that moment LT. The stuff that fuels nightmares.

    Anyway what seemed like an eternity later my oldest boy was born. For two reasons my passion for the game was reignited that night, following a long slow decline that began in 2006.

    My wife agreed that, if any Oiler scored a hat trick that night I could name the kid after the player. I was secretly rooting for Magnus, who had looked so amazing in the pre-season, for a boy or Eberle for a girl (I like last names first).

    HOPE is already 50% gone, and I suspect at least one more piece leaves in the next few months. Thank god for Connor McDavid, and my kids (the third and likely final of which is due to arrive in the next few weeks). Without them I’m not sure I’d care anymore.

  3. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!

    – Who here likes Kessel. There are 50 forwards in the league I would want before Kessel

    – League sees Eberle as $2MM cheaper version, with a few years less track record than Kessel.

    – That extra $2MM will help with his trade value. Ebs is going to be 27 years old next season

    – Eberle does one thing well, score goals. No interest in anything else. No-one timer. Good players score lots when they play with good players. That is Ebs. A good goal-scorer.

    – This team will replace his goals with others

    – Chia traded Kessel. Then they won a cup. Bye Eberle

    P.S. – This is not a playoff D: sorry: Klefbom—Demers, Sekera—Fayne, Nurse—Davidson:

    – Klef way too high, Demers too high, Fayne too high, Nurse needs to play with a vet, not another guy who is learning the ropes that had a good 20 game stretch.

  4. frjohnk says:

    EBERLE fan here. But I do believe we have to trade one of the $6M men at some point for help on the backend. I dont see EBERLE going to the Ducks ( as they are an internal cap team) or the Avs but if a deal can be worked on to get Hamonic with EBERLE Id do that deal

    Using EBERLE to get a top 4 Dman will create better balance between forwards and Dman BUT then we create lack of balance upfront in regards to righties and lefties. We have no skilled righties after EBERLE. Maybe we sign Okposo, he wants $7M, thats why the Islanders wont sign him. But in any event of trading EBERLE, it will be tough finding a skilled right shot forward.

    Stamkos?

  5. Wolfie says:

    I have a Greg Keelor story…

    I was a porter on Via’s Canadian. We boarded our passengers in Toronto to start our journey west and this guy comes along with his guitar strapped to his back and gives his lady a kiss before he jumps on the train on his own…

    I recognize the face but and I know who he is but I don’t know his name. I have to check my call card and there it is Greg Keelor is on board with his unmistakeable steel guitar! He was laid back didn’t need anything extra. Quiet and unassuming. He would eat in the dining car amid people from all over and nobody had a clue who he was!

  6. smellyglove says:

    Ah Eberle. I was a quarter of the way through a bottle of rum when they called his name at the draft. He was my guy. I was very happy the Oilers selected Jordan and enjoyed multiple gilded WJC performances from him. For a long time Eberle was my favorite Oiler, maybe still is. I understand why he is the trade chip though.

  7. Bar_Qu says:

    I don’t like trading D or C so it has to be from the wing. Eberle gets best value so he is the one who has to go. But I have his name on my jersey and he will always be one of my favorites.

  8. Bad Seed says:

    Keelor and Cuddy – the Canadian Lennon McCartney. Not so fond of the songs of Cuddy but Keelor’s is the perfect voice of world weary despair. You want a perfect match, listen to Keelor while watching an Oiler game.

  9. Clay says:

    I get the argument for trading Eberle, but it’ll be a bitter pill if/when it happens. Same goes if it’s RNH or Hall.

    It just represents the managerial failure of the Hall era. We always kind of assumed we’d lose one of the Wunderkids at some point, but because they were all so successful that the team couldn’t afford to fit them all under the cap – not because 6 years in, the blueline is worse than when we started.

    Depressing.

  10. Truth says:

    Excellent work LT, as always.

    I somehow feel that it is going to be Hall on the move this summer. It wouldn’t be my choice but I could see a few reasons it would make sense:

    – Apart from McDavid he will bring the most in return. The Oilers NEED that legitimate 25 min / night player.
    – McLellan’s old team used a lot of centers in different positions. Draisaitl is a L shooting C who slots in nicely on Nuge’s wing.
    – Lots of talk about “culture change.” Trading Hall would certainly not be re-arranging the deck chairs. He had been the favourite to wear the C before the Oilers were gifted McDavid and they didn’t exactly thrive with him as the de facto leader. It would then be McDavid’s team, no question
    -The Oilers will be in a position to draft a big body F this year. The two Finns will play in the NHL next season and I wouldn’t count out Tkachuk making an NHL team. Obviously none of them directly replace Hall, but Draisaitl’s ability to play W and a new high potential W on the roster would lessen the blow.

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    Back to the D make up: this is playoffs:

    Sekera—Demers (or another bona-fide top-4 RH),

    Klef—(another D as good and bonafide as Sekera)

    Fayne – Nurse or Davidson (but not both)

    – Gryba or another RH that can play at his level or more

    – You need four in top-4 who are bona-fide, with only one of them Klef.

    – If Davy or Nurse improves, there is a path to moveup: do not hope them to top-4

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!

    – Who here likes Kessel.There are 50 forwards in the league I would want before Kessel

    – League sees Eberle as $2MM cheaper version, with a few years less track record than Kessel.

    – That extra $2MM will help with his trade value.Ebs is going to be 27 years old next season

    – Eberle does one thing well, score goals.No interest in anything else.No-one timer.Good players score lots when they play with good players.That is Ebs.A good goal-scorer.

    – This team will replace his goals with others

    – Chia traded Kessel.Then they won a cup.Bye Eberle

    P.S. – This is not a playoff D: sorry:Klefbom—Demers, Sekera—Fayne, Nurse—Davidson:

    – Klef way too high, Demers too high, Fayne too high, Nurse needs to play with a vet, not another guy who is learning the ropes that had a good 20 game stretch.

    I think if Kessel was considered a team player, his value would have been much higher. Ebs doesn’t bring the same baggage in terms of attitude problems.

  13. Truth says:

    Does anyone know how the draft works in relation to the Oilers if Toronto does draw one of the top 3 picks? Toronto can choose as low as #4 if they don’t win one of the three lottery picks, so Oilers can choose as low as #5. If Toronto wins one of the top three, do the Oilers get the #4 pick at worst? That is the only way it makes sense to me unless they are doing a lottery for the #4 pick as well.

  14. Water Fire says:

    It is a shame that everyone can’t stay. It’s human nature, probably even amplified in sports, that these fellows become part of the group and we feel loyalty to them.

    On the other hand drafting BPA means you have to trade that highest value available asset you acquired to balance the roster.

    As many are saying of the high end players Jordan is the odd man out at this point. Yak is quirky, but he’s also nasty and cheap and certainly has talent and speed, and may some day even be able to score enough. The cap world knows no loyalty.

  15. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    I understand that I’m a broken record on this, but this is MacT’s damn fault. If we had re-signed Petry, how would this D look:

    Klefbom – XXX
    Sekera – Petry
    Nurse – Davidson

    In the above scenario, would simply adding a Demers for $$$ get the job done? I think we’d be close.

    But instead, we’re going to trade one of the $6M players to replace Petry and then we’ll still need another RHD.

    If Chia is going to sacrifice upfront talent for the failures of MacT, I sure hope MacT is sent out the door shortly after.

  16. jonrmcleod says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    But the Oilers might not have McDavid if they hadn’t traded Petry at last year’s trade deadline.

  17. GCW_69 says:

    I am resigned to Eberle’s departure. Very interested where the Oilers draft. If it’s two or three and Lucic isn’t coming to Edmonton then Eberle is gone.

    I just hope that Chiarelli makes a good trade – quality for quality rather than quality for quantity.

    Wanna do Ebs and Fayne for Hamonic, Nelson/Strome and a questionable contract to even out the dollars, sure. Wanna trades Ebs for a third line centre, iffy right shot defender and back up goalie, no thanks.

  18. Ducey says:

    I get a kick out of Drew “I never made it as a player or a coach” Remenda criticizing Ebs for “dusting off the puck.”

    The guy got 25 goals in 69 games and had 14% shooting percentage.

    He is an elite scorer.

    In other words, shut the fuck up.

    _________________________________

    I also think people need to think about what the Oilers’ problem was last year.

    Sure EDM was 27th in GA with 242 GA (decent improvement given they were 30th the year before with 276 GA)

    But they were 26th in GF (with 199, up from 193). Dumping one of your 25 goal scorers isn’t going to help that any.

    There are two parts to the GD’s, and defense isn’t the only one.

    I think I’d keep Ebs, sign Demers, trade (Yak) for another up and coming RH D.

    Next year Demers and Klefbom should shave 20 more goals off the GA,

    A full year of MCD and someone to replace Yak (Laine or UFA) and a fixed PP should add another 20 goals to the offense.

    Presto, even GD!

    I don’t think this thing needs massive renovations, people: Get rid of Yak, draft Laine, sign Demers, get a reliable backup goaler, and fix the PP (find someone who can shoot from the point).

    But like you say, its all pissing in the wind until we know where EDM will pick.

  19. kinger_OIL says:

    JimmyV1965,

    “I think if Kessel was considered a team player, his value would have been much higher. Ebs doesn’t bring the same baggage in terms of attitude problems.”

    – That’s just B.S. media narrative. Point production is exactly the same. That’s all that matters

    – But sure, add the $2MM savings to the Ebs is a great guy narrative, so he’s better than Kessel to bring back even more.

    – Team will score more goals without Ebs next year, and they will be more balanced and harder to play against. Ebs will have a Hemsky/Kessel-type impact for his new team. We won’t “miss” him

  20. jake70 says:

    On Petry – I posted this back last fall. From a Montreal Gazette blog/column of some sort. One has to guess “ciiques” meant the Oilers, unless it was his college/high school teams – maybe MacT’s hands were tied here.

    “”Almost certainly, Petry left money on the table that would have been available elsewhere. But sometimes, a good fit and strong chemistry with teammates and an organization can bridge a financial gap.

    In fact, Petry said Thursday that the Canadiens squad he got to quickly know last season and the group he’s seeing again at the start of this training camp “is the closest (of) any team I’ve played for. There aren’t cliques going in their own direction. Everybody is all-in and has the same goal.””

  21. rickithebear says:

    first 13gm hurt
    0.30 EVP/60

    next 24gm no mcdavid and playing with injured RNH
    2.15 EVp/60 top 40 Facing mid 1st comp

    next 32gm with Mcdavid playing
    2.40 EVP/60 top 10 Facing mid 1st comp

    Players who have played some RW who might replace top 10
    Jagr Upper 1st comp 2.73
    Kane mid 2nd comp 2.63
    Wheeler Upper 1sy comp 2.49

    Rest of RW who might replace
    Tarasenko upper 2nd comp 2.29
    Seguin bottom 1st comp 2.19
    Pavelski bottom 1st comp 2.13

    Eberle not hurt or playing for Eakins is a even player Power versus Power.

    Where our Forwards lack point production is in a PP.
    It was perfoming as the 3rd best under nelson and complete shit under Mceakins!

    What is readily apparent when looking at the top 12 GA teams in the league is?

    They have the 12 best depth of HSCA D. 47 of the 60 HSCA. At least 2.

    The worst GA teams can either be affected by having
    1. a large collection of bottom 90 (180-240) (#6; #7; #8) HSCA results.
    Edmonton 7 including 5 in the bottom 20. 5!
    Calgary 6
    2. Real bad Med and HSCA save % goalies.
    Cgy

    Oilers have 2 of the top 60 HSCA D.
    Oilers have one of the 6 goalies above average in med and high chance Save%
    Oilers have what might be the best EVP/60 forward depth in the game.

    Oilers have the worst bottom end HSCA D depth in the game. WG: the the top 25 HSCA 3rd pr D Fucking Matters.
    Our PP went from #3 production under Nelson to horrific.

    We only had our 2 best HSCA D for 81 of 164 man games.
    Our 5 top 40 EVP forwards games missed or played hurt.
    Mcdavid missed 37gm
    Eberle missed 13; hurt 13gm
    Hall 0 games missed
    Draisatl 10 gm missed
    Pouliot 27gm missed
    Maroon had the best EVp/60 in league when playing with Mcdavid for the 16gm here.

    We need to improve our HSCA D depth.
    We need to improve our PP.
    we need to maintain our team health.

    Chasing the #1 D is quite silly.
    Especially when the best overall performing D in the game was Klefbom.
    We need an addition of 2-3 mid 2nd comp + D with top 90 HSCA to share the burden with
    Klefbom; Davidson; Sekera; (maybe fayne)

  22. RexLibris says:

    God, LT, what a perfect song for this.

    A man who knows the event has passed, saw it all the way down the line like a train on the prairie, but the pain won’t set in until maybe the third stanza.

    We’ve been trading Eberle out of this town for a few years now. First out of desperation, now because of possibilities and deadlines, but I don’t think we’ll know what we’re missing until he comes back to town and fans here start dwelling on how badly we need a right-shooting sniper who can play with Hall and Nugent-Hopkins.

    This may be one of my favourite Blue Rodeo songs, and I have a few.

  23. season not played says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    I like the hind sight game too. Well, not so much like as drive myself crazy.

    I’m not as big a fan as the Austins as the rest of the people on here and wouldn’t really care if any of them were traded but here is a way the that likely none of them would have to go.

    2013 draft, realize that they have zero RH shot D prospects and you have a choice in the top ten between a left and a right, choose Rasmus Ristolainen.

    2015 draft. Hold out for Ryan Pulock instead of Reinhart.

    Klefbom Ristolainen
    Sekera Fayne
    Davison Pulock
    Oesterle Gryba
    Musil
    Simpson
    Etc.

    Maybe add a Yakupov or a pick or whatever to Fayne to upgrade to Hamonic, done deal.

    Hind sight. Frustrating Oiler Fans for 25 years.

  24. Chachi says:

    jake70:
    On Petry – I posted this back last fall.From a Montreal Gazette blog/column of some sort.One has to guess “ciiques” meant the Oilers, unless it was his college/high school teams – maybe MacT’s hands were tied here.

    “”Almost certainly, Petry left money on the table that would have been available elsewhere. But sometimes, a good fit and strong chemistry with teammates and an organization can bridge a financial gap.

    In fact, Petry said Thursday that the Canadiens squad he got to quickly know last season and the group he’s seeing again at the start of this training camp “is the closest (of) any team I’ve played for. There aren’t cliques going in their own direction. Everybody is all-in and has the same goal.””

    Funny how a year or so later and suddenly there are “rumours” about a split in the Canadiens locker room especially between Subban and Pacciorety. When things are going well for a team on the ice the chemistry in the room is always great and as soon as they do not go well on the ice there must be a problem in the room…

  25. Cameron says:

    A few thoughts;

    – I honestly think that if Edm could have traded a winger (Eberle or Yakupov) not named Hall for a bona fide top pair DMan, it would have already happened.

    – Hall strikes me as the one to be traded. My guess? The Blues go out early and a Hall+Nurse for Pieterangelo+Berglund deal gets done. Or, more likely, they bite the bullet and do a Nuge for Hamonic deal that nobody feels good about.

    – I never liked Blue Rodeo. Too… country. Was always more of a Sloan guy.

  26. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    season not played:
    HeatTreaterJoe,

    I like the hind sight game too. Well, not so much like as drive myself crazy.

    I’m not as big a fan as the Austins as the rest of the people on here and wouldn’t really care if any of them were traded but here is a way the that likely none of them would have to go.

    2013 draft, realize that they have zero RH shot D prospects and you have a choice in the top ten between a left and a right, choose Rasmus Ristolainen.

    2015 draft. Hold out for Ryan Pulock instead of Reinhart.

    KlefbomRistolainen
    SekeraFayne
    DavisonPulock
    OesterleGryba
    Musil
    Simpson
    Etc.

    Maybe add a Yakupov or a pick or whatever to Fayne to upgrade to Hamonic, done deal.

    Hind sight. Frustrating Oiler Fans for 25 years.

    That’s fair, but I don’t think the Petry situation is really hind sight. I was upset leading up to that trade deadline that a deal wasn’t done, and I was upset at the meager return. I was upset when MacT pithily stated that some team was going to get a really good D.

    I was upset then, and unsurprisingly still upset. It doesn’t seem like hindsight the same was as imagining how things could have been if you drafted a different player.

    I don’t think I’m in the minority in terms of being upset leading up to, and immediately after, the trade.

  27. Snowman says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Why do you think Klef is too high on the top pair? Lack of experience in that role?

    He played top competition this year. He was 19th for Dmen at 5×5 p/60. He had a positive possession number and was positive relative to the team.

    He’s close to being top pair if he isn’t already in my opinion. Only thing is he hasn’t played there enough yet. I bet if he gets some powerplay time his point totals jump.

  28. godot10 says:

    Demers, Fayne, and Davidson on the right side isn’t remotely good enough.

    One needs four better defensemen overall than Davidson and Fayne and Nurse. The Oilers have two. Davidson may surprise again but it is foolish to bet on it.

  29. vinotintazo says:

    Snowman:
    kinger_OIL,

    Why do you think Klef is too high on the top pair? Lack of experience in that role?

    He played top competition this year. He was 19th for Dmen at 5×5 p/60. He had a positive possession number and was positive relative to the team.

    He’s close to being top pair if he isn’t already in my opinion. Only thing is he hasn’t played there enough yet. I bet if he gets some powerplay time his point totals jump.

    he’s dreamy, I hope we dont trade him.

  30. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    first 13gm hurt
    0.30 EVP/60

    next 24gm no mcdavid and playing with injured RNH
    2.15 EVp/60 top 40 Facing mid 1st comp

    next 32gm with Mcdavid playing
    2.40 EVP/60 top 10 Facing mid 1st comp

    Players who have played some RW who mightreplace top 10
    Jagr Upper 1st comp 2.73
    Kane mid 2nd comp 2.63
    Wheeler Upper 1sy comp 2.49

    Rest of RW who might replace
    Tarasenko upper 2nd comp 2.29
    Seguin bottom 1st comp 2.19
    Pavelski bottom 1st comp 2.13

    Eberle not hurt or playing for Eakins is a even player Power versus Power.

    Where our Forwards lack point production is in a PP.
    It was perfoming as the 3rd best under nelson and complete shit under Mceakins!

    What is readily apparent when looking at the top 12 GA teams in the league is?

    They have the 12best depth of HSCA D. 47 of the 60 HSCA. At least 2.

    The worst GA teams can either be affected by having
    1. a large collection ofbottom 90 (180-240) (#6; #7; #8) HSCA results.
    Edmonton 7 including 5 in the bottom 20. 5!
    Calgary 6
    2. Real bad Med and HSCA save % goalies.
    Cgy

    Oilers have 2 of the top 60 HSCA D.
    Oilers have one of the 6 goalies above average in med and high chance Save%
    Oilers have what might be the best EVP/60 forward depth in the game.

    Oilers have the worst bottom end HSCA D depth in the game. WG: the the top 25 HSCA 3rd pr D Fucking Matters.
    Our PP went from #3 production under Nelson to horrific.

    We only had our 2 best HSCA D for 81 of 164 man games.
    Our 5 top 40 EVP forwards games missed or played hurt.
    Mcdavid missed 37gm
    Eberle missed 13; hurt 13gm
    Hall 0 games missed
    Draisatl 10 gm missed
    Pouliot 27gm missed
    Maroon had the best EVp/60 in league when playing with Mcdavid for the 16gm here.

    We need to improve our HSCA D depth.
    We need to improve our PP.
    we need to maintain our team health.

    Chasing the #1 D is quite silly.
    Especially when the best overall performing D in the game was Klefbom.
    We need an addition of2-3 mid 2nd comp + D with top 90 HSCA to share the burden with
    Klefbom; Davidson; Sekera; (maybe fayne)

    Wait, are you really crowning Klefbom the best D in the game?

  31. leadfarmer says:

    Am I the only one who had to google who the hell is Blue Rodeo?

  32. Ice Sage says:

    Cameron:
    A few thoughts;

    – I honestly think that if Edm could have traded a winger (Eberle or Yakupov) not named Hall for a bona fide top pair DMan, it would have already happened.

    – Hall strikes me as the one to be traded. My guess? The Blues go out early and a Hall+Nurse for Pieterangelo+Berglund deal gets done. Or, more likely, they bite the bullet and do a Nuge for Hamonic deal that nobody feels good about.

    – I never liked Blue Rodeo. Too… country. Was always more of a Sloan guy.

    Yeh, well then LT would have the title ‘Underwhelmed” for 20 straight posts!!!!!!!!

  33. Pajamah says:

    leadfarmer: Wait, are you really crowning Klefbom the best D in the game?

    According to rickistats, its either him, Ben Lovejoy, or Josh Manson.

  34. season not played says:

    leadfarmer,

    After you sort through the jibberish I believe that is what he is saying.

    Has been for some time….I think.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Last time I’ll spam this:

    **SPAM**

    ICYMI: New Because Oilers: Playoff teams ice Top 4 D 60% of the time,the Oilers are @ 31%

    This *might* be a problem

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html

    **END SPAM**

    Thanks for letting my tape my posters on your lamppost LT.

  36. RexLibris says:

    Cameron: – I never liked Blue Rodeo. Too… country. Was always more of a Sloan guy.

    I’m not a big country fan. Overall, I would say I don’t prefer that genre.

    Blue Rodeo and Johnny Cash are my exceptions. For me their music is the poetry of heartache, hope and suffering but absent many of the other themes that dominate the C&W field.

    Re: Hall, I think many outside Edmonton believe this is likely, however with regards to your points specifically.

    I think Eberle wasn’t moved for a defenseman this season because the Oilers’ season was, for all intents and purposes, over by the time Eberle had a chance to play with McDavid, and that was one thing Chiarelli wanted to see before making a decision there.

    In addition, for much of the season Chiarelli wouldn’t have been able to make a move from a position of even equivalence, let alone strength.

    Many teams may have wanted to hold on to their defenseman for this season (Hamonic as an example, Vatanen is another) before making a move in the off-season once they had a new cap figure from which to work and allowing for the team they had in place to run for a year.

    The most valuable assets Chiarelli had to move this season were Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl and the 2016 1st round pick and it is logical to assume than not a one would have returned fair value.

  37. rickithebear says:

    Petry as an oiler.
    10-11 mid 3rd comp 10.81 HSCA/60
    11-12 Mid 1st comp 12.66
    12-13 mid 1st comp 14.70
    13-14 Bot 1st comp 12.33
    14-15 mid 2nd comp 11.74

    you see an 12-18% improvement in HSCA performance with a move from WC to EC.
    15-16 bottom 1st comp 9.81
    expected 10.10 to 10.85 HSCA performance.

    11.75 versus the tough teams in the WC.

  38. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Last time I’ll spam this:

    **SPAM**

    ICYMI: New Because Oilers: Playoff teams ice Top 4 D 60% of the time,the Oilers are @ 31%

    This *might* be a problem

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html

    **END SPAM**

    Thanks for letting my tape my posters on your lamppost LT.

    Fantastic work as always.

    Just looked at who RNH has had on the backend the most in regards to TOI in the last 3 years.

    Schultz is first
    Ference is second.

    So the core have had the privlidge of playing the most with a Dman who on a playoff team is looking like a 7,8 and the number 2 Dman in TOI who is probably a number 10 on the worst blue line in the league.

  39. "Steve Smith" says:

    leadfarmer: Wait, are you really crowning Klefbom the best D in the game?

    You must be new here.

  40. leadfarmer says:

    “Steve Smith”: You must be new here.

    Well I normally read his posts as saying Klefbom is the best D on this team, which he either is or is very close to being. I never figured he was talking about the whole league.

  41. "Steve Smith" says:

    leadfarmer,

    Oh yeah – Ricki’s faith in his metrics is ironclad. If his metric shows somebody to best the best in the league, then the guy’s the best in the league, even if the assertion is ludicrous on its face. What’s especially fun is when that same guy was, the previous season, one of the worst in the league.

    Ricki actually is what the knuckle-draggers imagine statheads to be.

  42. frjohnk says:

    season not played:
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-the-pros-and-the-cons-of-the-edmonton-oilers-trading-taylor-hall

    A compelling case.

    Yup, I agree. You only trade Hall if a guy like Karlsson, Subban, OEL is coming back. Other than that, its foolish to trade Hall.

    He pushes the play like few can in the league.

    He is always at the top of creating high danger scoring chances and scoring chances every year per game.
    This year, he was 2nd in the league in high danger chances created, 1st in scoring chances created.

    Hall on one line and McDavid on the other will give opposing defensemen fits for the next few years.

    At $6M, he is a value contract.

    A phenomenal talent.

  43. RexLibris says:

    MORE SPAMSPAMSPAMSPAM

    My season-end review of the Canucks is up at FN and CanucksArmy.

    Music by Tom Petty.

    http://flamesnation.ca/2016/4/18/year-end-review-of-the-vancouver-canucks

    If you want to skip the text and go straight to the graphs and charts I’ve posted it will tell you a heck of a story about that team.

    Thanks in advance to any and all who read it.

    End SPAM!

  44. GCW_69 says:

    I took a look at fourteen teams and the games played by their draft picks round 2-7 from 2007-2012.
    The teams were Edmonton, Chicago, L.A., Boston, Detroit, Nashville, Washington, San Jose, Ottawa, Calgary, Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Winnipeg.

    I picked the U.S.teams that generally did well in the regular season, and so would in theory have lesser talent to pick from every round, and the Canadian teams.

    Here is what I found:

    Average games played: 1371
    Average from Canadian teams: 1114 (-258 games to average)
    Average from U.S. teams: 1629 (+258 games, 515 games better than their Canadian counterparts)
    Edmonton: 1026 (-345 games)
    Boston: 384 (-987 games)
    L.A.: 3186 (+1815 games)

    Overall, it’s no wonder Canadian teams struggle to make the playoffs these days with that drafting record. 515 less games on average? That’s a big advantage in home grown depth for those U.S.teams over their Canadian counterparts

    Edmonton did suck on this measure, but Vancouver and Winnipeg were brutal. The move to Winnipeg that resulted in a change in management could not have been better for the team. If Vancouver hasn’t burned their scouting department to the ground, they should.

    Boston was right down there with Vancouver. We had better hope Chiarelli doesn’t bring many scouts from Boston. What a shit show. With that drafting record he deserved to be fired in Boston.

    L.A.was the star of this period, within this sample. 968 games better than the next highest, which surprisingly was Ottawa. 1815 better than average. Scott Cullen typically talks in terms of players playing 100 games. To do that much better over this five year period is scary.

  45. Caramel Batman says:

    McCurdy had a great article the other day on the decline of scoring. Not sure it it was discussed here or not.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-empty-net-goals-on-the-rise-but-real-scoring-continues-to-plummet-in-nhl

  46. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Fantastic work as always.

    Just looked at who RNH has had on the backend the most in regards to TOI in the last 3 years.

    Schultz is first
    Ference is second.

    So the core have had the privlidge of playing the most with a Dman who on a playoff team is looking like a 7,8 and the number 2 Dman in TOI who is probably a number 10 on the worst blue line in the league.

    it’s a bloody disgrace isn’t it?

    “The core is rotten!!”

    man.

  47. season not played says:

    frjohnk: Yup, I agree.You only trade Hall if a guy like Karlsson, Subban, OEL is coming back.Other than that, its foolish to trade Hall.

    He pushes the play like few can in the league.

    He is always at the top of creating high danger scoring chances and scoring chances every year per game.
    This year, he was 2nd in the league in high danger chances created, 1st in scoring chances created.

    Hall on one line and McDavid on the other will give opposing defensemen fits for the next few years.

    At $6M, he is a value contract.

    A phenomenal talent.

    Considering he is only good for about 27 goals a year, his conversion rate of high danger scoring chances must be among the lowest in the league and considering how little the Oilers score I would venture that many of his high danger scoring chances are not being converted by others. Meaning for all of Halls flash and dash, much of it results in very little which could be part of the reason the Oilers don’t win any games.

    There is zero chance Subban, Oel or Karlsson get traded for Hall unless the Oilers throw in a substantial asset.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    “Hasn’t Hit Me Yet”

    I get it, the song is written about Eberle from the viewpoint of the opposing players.

    Nice one, LT.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I’m in favor of anything that will make the goalies react to a shot instead of automatically going into the butterfly. Time to make the nets taller and a little wider. Reward the more athletic goalies instead of giants stuffed in net

  50. frjohnk says:

    season not played: Considering he is only good for about 27 goals a year, his conversion rate ofhigh danger scoring chances must be among the lowest in the league and considering how little the Oilers score I would venture that many of his high danger scoring chances are not being converted by others. Meaning for all of Halls flash and dash, much of it results in very little which could be part of the reason the Oilers don’t win any games.

    There is zero chance Subban, Oel or Karlsson get traded for Hall unless the Oilers throw in a substantial asset.

    High danger chances at 5 on 5.

    His conversion rate is pretty good at even strength.

    The issue is that he does not score well on the PP.

    But 5 on 5, few can push the play like Hall.

    Dreger said that when he talked to Oiler sources that Hall was pretty much untouchable. And at the year end avail, Chia said there were ” a couple of untouchables”.

    So if none of those guys are coming back, Hall will remain an Oiler. Which is a no brainer.

  51. leadfarmer says:

    season not played: Considering he is only good for about 27 goals a year, his conversion rate ofhigh danger scoring chances must be among the lowest in the league and considering how little the Oilers score I would venture that many of his high danger scoring chances are not being converted by others. Meaning for all of Halls flash and dash, much of it results in very little which could be part of the reason the Oilers don’t win any games.

    There is zero chance Subban, Oel or Karlsson get traded for Hall unless the Oilers throw in a substantial asset.

    While I would agree that Hall is a very meh finisher, but the amount of high danger scoring chances that he creates given that most of the d is incapable of getting him the puck with speed is very significant.

  52. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: Wait, are you really crowning Klefbom the best D in the game?

    Right now No.

    Was there a d that provided a more complete game?.
    1. faced top 60 comp
    2. top 60 HSCA/60
    3. top 30 EVp/60
    4. top 60 PKGA
    only one d provided this.
    Oscar klefbom!

    A lot of people argue.
    He only did it for 30gm

    the 3 words from that point
    HE DID IT!

    Weber? Nope
    Suter? Nope
    Giordano? god no. bottom 60 HSCA

    Might want to go back and look who has since 05-06

    If Oscar is still doing it 50 games in next year.

    The answer to
    the best D man in the game?
    will be yes.

    When Oscar Klefbom got hurt we lost
    The most complete 1st pairing results from a Dman in the game!

  53. Gerta Rauss says:

    Truth:
    Does anyone know how the draft works in relation to the Oilers if Toronto does draw one of the top 3 picks?Toronto can choose as low as #4 if they don’t win one of the three lottery picks, so Oilers can choose as low as #5.If Toronto wins one of the top three, do the Oilers get the #4 pick at worst?That is the only way it makes sense to me unless they are doing a lottery for the #4 pick as well.

    If Toronto wins any 1 of the 3 lottery positions, and any other non playoff team not named the Oilers wins the other 2 lottery positions, Edmonton would pick 4th.

    If the 3 lottery winners are not named Toronto or Edmonton, the Oilers select 5th

  54. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Trade Eberle for Hamonic/Shattenkirk/Barrie, keep Yak and play him with McD.

    Pick up a legit 3C and run:

    Hall-RNH-Drai
    Pou-McD-Yak
    Maroon-_____-Kass/UFA

  55. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Almost every projected lineup I see has maroon separated from McD.

    I get that it was a small sample size, but he was on a 41 goal pace.

    You’ve got to figure they at least try to have him pick up where he left off.

  56. kinger_OIL says:

    vinotintazo,

    – Oscar has played 107 games. He has 7 goals. He is 22 years old. He’s had maybe a 25 game stretch of very strong D performance. He needs to develop a lot more. He gets injured. Playing full seasons matters for D. He should recover from this staph infection. He needs new skates. Some selected small sample size stats give hope he can become a very good D.

    – Sorry, that’s not a #1 D on a playoff team, that’s “an emerging young D talent”

    – I like Klef.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Klefbom with a veteran D like Jason Demers should be mobile and effective. The Oilers don’t have a lefty like Ryan Suter, so this is the world we live in. Klefbom may be 22, may have 107 NHL games, but he is the most qualified for the position and trading him is not an option imo.

  58. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide,

    – LT says: “he is the most qualified for the position” What position?

    – LT says: “trading him is not an option” I think WG said to trade him.

    – Sek with a strong partner, and Klef with a mobile partner, you have a decent top-4 with upside

    – What Ricki said, and WG’s great piece about top-4 D’s and trading Klef

    – Then if Klef plays like how we hope, for a full season, we have more than average top-4

  59. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy gets a nice shout out from Stauffer on Oilers Now.

  60. RJ2016 says:

    I find breaking up Eberle’s season (first 12, 57 after) obfuscates how bad a season Eberle really had.

    It would be more reflective of his season to break it up as follows: first 12 (3 points in 12), from 13 to the All-Star break (0.4 ppg pace), and Eberle post-Allstar break. Without the McDavid bump, this would have been his worst season as an Oiler.

  61. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Lowetide,

    – LT says: “he is the most qualified for the position”What position?

    – LT says: “trading him is not an option”I think WG said to trade him.

    – Sek with a strong partner, and Klef with a mobile partner, you have a decent top-4 with upside

    – What Ricki said, and WG’s great piece about top-4 D’s and trading Klef

    – Then if Klef plays like how we hope, for a full season, we have more than average top-4

    Trading Klefbom makes no sense. Edmonton isn’t trying to win the Stanley Cup next season, they are trying to make the playoffs. Klefbom can grow with the group and has shown exceptional growth (albeit in an injury shortened season).

    The job? Top pairing LHD. Choose Sekera if you wish, I like Klefbom’s mobility more. Perhaps you could put Sekera-Demers and Klefbom-Fayne, but Sekera-Fayne were solid this past season.

  62. Lowetide says:

    RJ2016:
    I find breaking up Eberle’s season (first 12, 57 after) obfuscates how bad a season Eberle really had.

    It would be more reflective of his season to break it up as follows: first 12 (3 points in 12), from 13 to the All-Star break (0.4 ppg pace), and Eberle post-Allstar break. Without the McDavid bump, this would have been his worst season as an Oiler.

    He had been hurt, came back slowly. After November, the numbers were Eberle numbers. Seems pretty clear he was fine after catching up to the pace.

  63. AsiaOil says:

    Defensive systems, improvements in goalie technique, equipment size and goalie size have all contributed to the decrease in scoring. Hard to make systems “worse” in the NHL so you are left with the size issues. Got caught up watching highlights of all games in all series yesterday – and what struck me was the percentage of goals scored “top corner on glove or blocker side unless a one-timer was let go before the goalie was set. The increase in goalie height and equipment size plus butterfly has effectively sealed off 90% of the net – top corner is all that’s open.

    The solution is pretty easy in my mind – raised the crossbar a good 6-12 inches to compensate for the 6-5 giants now in NHL nets. This would also make the butterfly far less effective as there would be a good 12-18 inches of open net under the cross-bar. Also decrease goalie equipment size which has nothing to do with safety and is all about legal cheating. I don’t support making the net wider as goalies have not gotten any “fatter” aside from the fixable equipment issues.

    Raise the cross-bar.

    leadfarmer:
    Caramel Batman,

    I’m in favor of anything that will make the goalies react to a shot instead of automatically going into the butterfly.Time to make the nets taller and a little wider.Reward the more athletic goalies instead of giants stuffed in net

  64. dustrock says:

    AsiaOil:
    Defensive systems, improvements in goalie technique, equipment size and goalie size have all contributed to the decrease in scoring. Hard to make systems “worse” in the NHL so you are left with the size issues. Got caught up watching highlights of all games in all series yesterday – and what struck me was the percentage of goals scored “top corner on glove or blocker side unless a one-timer was let go before the goalie was set. The increase in goalie height and equipment size plus butterfly has effectively sealed off 90% of the net – top corner is all that’s open.

    The solution is pretty easy in my mind – raised the crossbar a good 6-12 inches to compensate for the 6-5 giants now in NHL nets. This would also make the butterfly far less effective as there would be a good 12-18 inches of open net under the cross-bar. Also decrease goalie equipment size which has nothing to do with safety and is all about legal cheating. I don’t support making the net wider as goalies have not gotten any “fatter” aside from the fixable equipment issues.

    Raise the cross-bar.

    Great idea, I’m all for this.

    Re Chia and trading for D – I hear about Chiarelli and Snow already discussing Hamonic coming in to last year’s draft, and I hear Chiarelli and Murray talking about the Pat Maroon trade, and I get the sense he has a bunch of contingent deals worked out well in advance.

    Seems like a straight-up kinda thing “we’re interested in upgrading D, we’re looking at Player X on your team.”

    Murray specifically said Maroon was the type of player Chia had previously told him he was interested in, so they were able to make the deal quickly.

    Gonna be an interesting draft this year.

  65. bendelson says:

    AsiaOil,

    6-12″??
    Wow.
    That’s an enormous difference.
    I’d hate to be in front of the net when Weber tries to go bar down from the point.

  66. PunkInDrublic says:

    AsiaOil:
    Want a visual of the problem? Nik Backstrom versus Terry Sawchuk

    Backstrom
    http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/ows_142215195945920.jpg

    Sawchuk
    http://i1.wp.com/thehockeywriters.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/sawchukT12.jpg

    To add to your point Asia….

    http://ingoalmag.com/news/corey-hirsch-outlines-possible-equipment-changes/

    Pretty staggering the difference between current and proposed.

  67. dustrock says:

    PunkInDrublic,

    Great user name.

  68. Stelio Kontos says:

    To think this time last year, LT was in good enough spirits to let DSF post again. Didn’t last long before he had to relegate him back to the recesses of his mind.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    Interesting links
    Besides are some interesting links for you! Enjoy your stay 🙂
    Pages

    Contact

    Actually, DSF excused himself, which was a class thing to do.

  70. AsiaOil says:

    Well I’ve said my piece on Eberle in the 2013 draft thread a couple of days ago:

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/04/16/reviewing-the-2013-draft-crazy-trade-included/

    Ebs is a good little player but he’s obviously got his flaws and hasn’t really improved since his “career year” 5 years ago – in fact his ES scoring rate has dropped every year since then. His boxcars (which are admittedly nice) are driven by tons of primo ES and PP ice time as evidenced by his much less impressive points per 60 numbers (both ES and PP).

    We can replace Ebs offense for $4 million, and if we do it right, will get a much more well rounded player in the bargain. We have elite centers and don’t need to saddle them with covering for defensive liabilities that limit their own offense. I want solid two way wingers that support our elite centers – because reality is – a fire hydrant placed at the edge of the crease will score 30 with CMD.

    Won’t bore y’all with any more…..

  71. AsiaOil says:

    Current cross-bar height is only 4 feet and raising it 6 inches really only gets us back to the 60s where average NHL height was quite a bit less than 6 feet tall. Hell even in the 1980s Messier was considered “big” at 6 ft and 200 lbs – now he would be Taylor Hall average.

    bendelson:
    AsiaOil,

    6-12″??
    Wow.
    That’s an enormous difference.
    I’d hate to be in front of the net when Weber tries to go bar down from the point.

  72. Truth says:

    Gerta Rauss: If Toronto wins any 1 of the 3 lottery positions, and any other non playoff team not named the Oilers wins the other 2 lottery positions, Edmonton would pick 4th.

    If the 3 lottery winners are not named Toronto or Edmonton, the Oilers select 5th

    Thanks!

    In the meantime (waiting while hoping someone knew the answer) I did find a site that had the odds and some information I was looking for, albeit not for the exact question I had.

    http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

    Turns out the Oilers odds are:
    Top 3 pick: 39.1%
    4th overall: 35.2%
    5th overall: 25.8%

    Edit: They have a 100.1% stake in the lottery I guess.

  73. dustrock says:

    AsiaOil:
    Current cross-bar height is only 4 feet and raising it 6 inches really only gets us back to the 60s where average NHL height was quite a bit less than 6 feet tall. Hell even in the 1980s Messier was considered “big” at 6 ft and 200 lbs – now he would be Taylor Hall average.

    Maybe the composite sticks make up the gap if you do 6 inches.

  74. bendelson says:

    AsiaOil,

    Well, they would certainly have to stay on top of goalie mask sizes, otherwise it wouldn’t be long until we saw ‘Dark Helmet’ sized facial protection for the goalers.

  75. godot10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Almost every projected lineup I see has maroon separated from McD.

    I get that it was a small sample size, but he was on a 41 goal pace.

    You’ve got to figure they at least try to have him pick up where he left off.

    It’s close, and I’m probably on the minority side, and opposite the thinking of Chiarelli and McLellan, but I think McDavid is better and more dangerous with Pouliot than with Maroon. I think Pouliot is a better player on the rush than Maroon, and McDavid is better rush player than a cycle player, and I like playing players to their strengths, so I play him with Pouliot.

    I want to push the pace against the big division rivals. They are big. Tire the suckers out. Maroon can’t keep up as well on the rush as Pouliot but is better in the cycle game.

    Assuming McDavid is paired with a RW (Eberle or wishful thinking Laine), then I would use Pouliot or Maroon based on the matchup. If the game degenerates into a cycle game, use Maroon. If one can push the pace, use Pouliot.

  76. Магия 10 says:

    "Steve Smith": Ricki actually is what the knuckle-draggers imagine statheads to be.

    ~ I thought Ricki actually is a bear typing on a real big keyboard just like that stathead G-Money imagines. Last time I believe anything G-Money proves. ~

  77. who says:

    godot10: It’s close, and I’m probably on the minority side, and opposite the thinking of Chiarelli and McLellan, but Ithink McDavid is better and more dangerous with Pouliot than with Maroon.I think Pouliot is a better player on the rush than Maroon, and McDavid is better rush player than a cycle player, and I like playing players to their strengths, so I play him with Pouliot.

    I want to push the pace against the big division rivals.They are big.Tire the suckers out.Maroon can’t keep up as well on the rush as Pouliot but is better in the cycle game.

    Assuming McDavid is paired with a RW (Eberle or wishful thinking Laine), then I would use Pouliot or Maroon based on the matchup.If the game degenerates into a cycle game, use Maroon.If one can push the pace, use Pouliot.

    I agree. I think Maroon will struggle to keep up with MacDavid for a full season. I would like to see him with Drai. I think those two could create havoc for other teams off the cycle. I also don’t think we should just assume Maroon will be a huge producer next year. Its probably 50/50 that he turns into a 25 goal scorer. He could just as easily end up playing 4th line wing like he did in Anaheim.

  78. Fog of Warts says:

    Woodguy: Thanks for letting my tape my posters on your lamppost LT.

    Loved this. The lamppost probably likes this too. I’ve heard many lampposts—the kind who aren’t fixated on space—can read upside down. Useful skill for a lamppost. Especially when you’re trying not to look down some fat drunk’s ass crack—no matter how hard you flicker, they just don’t seem to receive the message “move along buddy, your car keys are simply not here!”—and you definitely don’t want to think about all the “missing” kittens, over some of whose gory remains you personally administered last rites.

    Now I want to run outside and paste an upside-down poster on the nearest naughty lamp post reading, in part, “conditions of street arrest; A) you are required to reside at a fixed station known to and approved by the court; B) you are required to avert your gaze when presented with loose-fitting halter tops; C) wolf-buzzing/humming/zapping is absolutely prohibited, even at women with plenitudinous eye paint; D) … Z) this notice composed of new material only, do not remove under penalty of law.”

    I’ll probably choose some lamp close to the seashore.

    “Nooooooooo, not the seagulls!”

    “Too bad, sucker, you should have thought about that before you committed your crime.”

  79. leadfarmer says:

    AsiaOil:
    Want a visual of the problem? Nik Backstrom versus Terry Sawchuk

    Backstrom
    http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/ows_142215195945920.jpg

    Sawchuk
    http://i1.wp.com/thehockeywriters.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/sawchukT12.jpg

    I always enjoy this picture to illustrate the same point
    https://twitter.com/syckhockey/status/453253297923948545

    I would be a big fan of raising the crossbar 4 inches and the net wider by 2 inches for next season. The NHLPA will fight a lot of the equipment changes under “safety banner”

  80. LoDog says:

    AsiaOil,

    Care to provide any examples of 4 million dollar players that can bring Eberle’s offence and are “well rounded” players?

  81. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LoDog,

    Sam Gagner.

    We’re gonna put the C on him.

  82. jimmers2 says:

    AsiaOil,

    This seems like an interesting idea but wouldn’t simply making the crossbar higher penalize a smaller, agile goaltender who uses the butterfly (as they all do)? I have no idea of the results or of goaltending, I just like the idea of rewarding the Hasek style of goaltending over the Brick Wall. And skill over systems in general.

  83. LoDog says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LoDog,

    Sam Gagner.

    We’re gonna put the C on him.

    If you are going to put the C on him, put it on top of his head. Maybe he won’t be such a hobbit then.

  84. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Some nice UFA wingers this summer.

    What if you traded Eberle for Hamonic and were able to replace him with Hudler? Okposo?

  85. Stelio Kontos says:

    Lowetide: Actually, DSF excused himself, which was a class thing to do.

    I still think it was a jekyll and hyde thing. He is the one asking the RE questions too isn’t he?

  86. Pajamah says:

    Fog of Warts: Loved this.The lamppost probably likes this too.I’ve heard many lampposts—the kind who aren’t fixated on space—can read upside down.Useful skill for a lamppost.Especially when you’re trying not to look down some fat drunk’s ass crack—no matter how hard you flicker, they just don’t seem to receive the message “move along buddy, your car keys are simply not here!”—and you definitely don’t want to think about all the “missing” kittens, over some of whose gory remains you personally administered last rites.

    Now I want to run outside and paste an upside-down poster on the nearest naughty lamp post reading, in part, “conditions of street arrest; A) you are required to reside at a fixed station known to and approved by the court; B) you are required to avert your gaze when presented with loose-fitting halter tops; C) wolf-buzzing/humming/zapping is absolutely prohibited, even at women with plenitudinous eye paint; D) … Z) this notice composed of new material only, do not remove under penalty of law.”

    I’ll probably choose some lamp close to the seashore.

    “Nooooooooo, not the seagulls!”

    “Too bad, sucker, you should have thought about that before you committed your crime.”

    As my dear old deceased Grandad would say to me when I was a petulant young child, spouting off who knows what…

    “What are you on about?”

  87. Lowetide says:

    Stelio Kontos: I still think it was a jekyll and hyde thing. He is the one asking the RE questions too isn’t he?

    Haha. No, the RE questions are asked by all of you at one point or another. The edgy portion comes from the collective voice (believe me, sometimes the group gets pretty intense!)

  88. Stelio Kontos says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Some nice UFA wingers this summer.

    What if you traded Eberle for Hamonic and were able to replace him with Hudler? Okposo?

    Other way around and I do it. Sign okposo then trade eberle. Could do the same thing with stamkos.

  89. Pajamah says:

    Lowetide: Actually, DSF excused himself, which was a class thing to do.

    A single fleck of gold dropped into a sea of excrement.

    Good riddance.

  90. GCW_69 says:

    leadfarmer: I always enjoy this picture to illustrate the same point
    https://twitter.com/syckhockey/status/453253297923948545

    I would be a big fan of raising the crossbar 4 inches and the net wider by 2 inches for next season.The NHLPA will fight a lot of the equipment changes under “safety banner”

    In 2007 it was proposed to the GMs to increase the size:

    “One of the items on the agenda at the NHL general managers meeting in February is whether, in an effort to increase scoring, the league should make the goal bigger. It’s now six feet wide by four feet high — the same as it’s always been. The new goal would add eight inches in width and four inches in height — 80″ x 52″ — so if you do the math, that’s a 20 percent increase. ” *

    That sounds about right to me.

    * http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/em_swift/01/16/bigger.goals/index.html The original seems to be gone, but it was re-posted here: http://www.gixxer.com/forums/21-hockey-talk/125417-why-nhl-should-increase-size-goal.html

  91. hags9k says:

    Keep Eberle, keep Yakupov. Sign the best FA D you can. Trade the 1st for the best D you can get.

    Coach the hell out of them.

  92. Lowetide says:

    hags9k:
    Keep Eberle, keep Yakupov.Sign the best FA D you can.Trade the 1st for the best D you can get.

    Coach the hell out of them.

    Nothing wrong with that plan. At all.

  93. Water Fire says:

    To me increasing net size is a band aid . Goalie equipment size needs regulation that suit league objectives as does every other thing. People will always push the limits.

    Smaller goalie eq. Call obstruction and dangerous play to encourage the talent which is what we all really tune in for. That alone will help. If shooters gain advantage regulate flex on sticks.

    If that isn’t enough get rid of the Bettman but that is unlikely as it dupes the average fan into thinking their team is in things far longer than we, the long suffering Oiler fans, standings and draft experts know.

  94. Water Fire says:

    So we know rush goals dominate but that is about breakdowns and tempo, and not the whole story. It is still important to be able to hold the offensive zone as it is the second largest way to score.

    It is also a part of the chess game, as opposed to checkers. Even without scoring (which is most of the game) it is keeping the puck out of your end, and stressing and tiring the opponent.

    Maroon is unique in that while flawed he has skill and is an ass kicker. He creates room which every NHL team will DESPERATELY ( ha ha ha) try to take from Connor as he scorches their earth.

    Give him skill with speed on the other side, preferably with some board skill and he’s set until the game has to change to try to stop him.

  95. hags9k says:

    Lowetide,

    The injuries and eventual 29th finish have muddied the water. They were better, and if they would have addressed the D properly and stayed healthy who knows.

    I cling to Nicholson’s words about loyalty. I romanticize about the team staying in tact until they all start clicking, with Yakupov being the future poster boy for the togetherness and patience paying off.

    But the reality is that Yak has asked out and will be fired from under the old boys bus, straight into the sun. And the relentless Toronto media meme of “one of the core has to go for a D” will likely win the day.

    Very, very dangerous summer.

  96. AsiaOil says:

    Well since you ask……..

    Zucherello
    Oshie
    Simmonds
    J Williams
    Riley Smith
    Kucherov
    Brower
    Gallagher
    etc etc

    ….all make much less than Ebs and put up comparable or superior ES/PP points per 60. Gallagher (while not what I consider “well rounded”) is actually a very good comp with much better ES scoring and a bit less PP scoring – he was injured this year as well:

    Eberle: 1.97 ESP/60 3.69 PPP/60 $6 million cap hit
    Gallagher 2.40 ESP/60 3.38 PPP/60 $3.75 million cap hit

    LoDog:
    AsiaOil,

    Care to provide any examples of 4 million dollar players that can bring Eberle’s offence and are “well rounded” players?

  97. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide: Nothing wrong with that plan. At all.

    Love the idea of keeping the band together and adding on but other than Demers, who comes in at say $5.5 x 6 yrs (more? less?), what are the other options that could really change the game barring a trade?

    There are teams out there who are tight to the cap/budget that “might” be subject to an Offer Sheet (or more likely the threat of one) – say Barrie in Colorado or Jones in Columbus – but even Roy/Sakic know how important Barrie is and Columbus just traded for Jones so don’t think he springs free.

    I know that there may be some interest in Anaheim to move a young d but presumably that was for some established offense up front – not for a draft pick. Same thing with Hamonic on the Island, Snow is going to want a real player (and likely at d) as opposed to a pick.

    I don’t like it but the fixes that need to happen will require more than minor adjustments to the roster.

  98. Richard S.S. says:

    The very best Defenders, the young star studs are beyond price. Players of this caliber, the “shock and awe” variety, are never traded because there are so very few in Hockey at any one time. Every Team wants one, but almost no one can afford the price. Edmonton must.

    Trading Edmonton’s 2016 1st Round Pick (possibly 1-5 overall) has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done. There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
    Trading Taylor Hall, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done. There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
    Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done. There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.

    To meet this price, you must scream in pain.

  99. "Steve Smith" says:

    Магия 10: ~ I thought Ricki actually is a bear typing on a real big keyboard.

    Is that not how the knuckle-draggers think of statheads? That’s how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads.

    (You don’t want to know how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of me thinking of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads. I’ll give you a clue, though: I think of them doing so on a bump on a log in a hole in the bottom of the sea.)

  100. Магия 10 says:

    “Steve Smith”: Is that not how the knuckle-draggers think of statheads? That’s how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads.

    (You don’t want to know how I think of the knuckle-draggers thinking of me thinking of the knuckle-draggers thinking of the statheads. I’ll give you a clue, though: I think of them doing so on a bump on a log in a hole in the bottom of the sea.)

    It just gets so complicated when you plumb the depths of your thoughts. Best not to stare into that abyss.

  101. "Steve Smith" says:

    Магия 10: It just gets so complicated when you plumb the depths of your thoughts. Best not to stare into that abyss.

    Sometimes a flea stares back at me. It’s wearing a hat with a flower.

  102. Магия 10 says:

    “Steve Smith”: Sometimes a flea stares back at me. It’s wearing a hat with a flower.

    Never read Seuss under the influence.

  103. AsiaOil says:

    If true then we should not trade the pick as we will be able to select the very best young defenseman in the world in his age group. Shyte gets real here for the scouts – if we keep the pick or trade down only modestly to pick a dman – they MUST get this right.

    LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
    LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL)
    LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL)
    RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA)
    RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL)

    Hamonic seems like a deal we can make without gutting the team of a river pusher at forward – Vatanen may also be available – and Demers is interesting as a young UFA. We also have an extra young LHD (Nurse, GR, Davy) that will need to be dealt for a RHD as there simply is not enough room. Will be real interesting to see what Chia does over the next 10 weeks. Probably the most important period of time in terms of putting this team together in the last 10 years and maybe the next 10 years.

    Richard S.S.:
    The very best Defenders, the young star studs are beyond price.Players of this caliber, the “shock and awe” variety, are never traded because there are so very few in Hockey at any one time.Every Team wants one, but almost no one can afford the price.Edmonton must.

    Trading Edmonton’s 2016 1st Round Pick (possibly 1-5 overall) has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done.There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
    Trading Taylor Hall, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done.There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.
    Trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, with his exceptional talent and abilities, has exceptional value, but it will never get the job done.There must be more offered, but I don’t know what.

    To meet this price, you must scream in pain.

  104. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    Which type of D compliments him on the right side ?

    Harmonic type or Vatanen type ?

    Or Demers ?

  105. marty62 says:

    I am coming in to this a little late, but I keep reading above comparisons of Eberle to Hemsky and other of similiar types…check your stats. Eberle just finished his 6th year in the NHL and he has 6 less goals than Hemsky has had in 12 seasons…. eberle is a 25 to 30 goals per year player. Hemsky is a passer that has twice managed to hit 20. Also read somewhere above that we can replace Eberles offense with a $ 4 mill per year guy… Really? Who is putting up close to 60 points a year and 25 to 30 goals a year and making only $4 million in the NHL today??? I think this blog drastically underestimates the value of a guy who can put the puck in the net. yes Eberle will not be confused with a checking type player but dont underestimate how hard it is to replace those goals

  106. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Ice Sage: Yeh, well then LT would have the title ‘Underwhelmed” for 20 straight posts!!!!!!!!

    He could have gotten some play out of “I am the Cancer”

    Too bad Sammy Gags is gone. He would have been perfect for ‘Snowsuit Sound’

    Love Sloan. Saw them originally at the Bronx for Twice Removed and my friend was photographed crowdsurfing and it was front page of entertainment section. His dad was a teacher on the North side and got ribbed about his son looking stoned.

    Saw them again last year playing the album in its entirety. One of the band I have seen the most times in the most places. Oddest place on the Whistler Blackcomb mountain with some dreadlocked rapper.

    Enjoy Blue Rodeo – and this has been a blast from the past, but wished the (I believe far superior) Skydiggers never got the accolades they deserved.

  107. Lowetide says:

    marty62:
    I am coming in to this a little late, but I keep reading abovecomparisonsof Eberle to Hemsky and other of similiar types…check your stats. Eberle just finished his 6th year in the NHL and he has 6 less goals than Hemsky has had in 12 seasons….eberle is a 25 to 30 goals per year player.Hemsky is a passer that has twice managed to hit 20. Also read somewhere above that we can replace Eberles offense with a $ 4 mill per year guy… Really?Who is putting up close to 60 points a year and 25 to 30 goals a year and making only $4 million in the NHL today??? I think this blog drastically underestimates thevalue of a guy who can put the puck in the net. yes Eberle will not be confused with a checking type player but dont underestimate how hard it is to replace those goals

    Eberle and Hemsky are comparables in terms of points per game in their first six seasons. Also, my entire post was about Eberle the scorer.

  108. Suntory Hanzo says:

    dustrock:
    PunkInDrublic,

    Great user name.

    If only LT would do a NOFX Re

  109. AsiaOil says:

    marty62: Really? Who is putting up close to 60 points a year and 25 to 30 goals a year and making only $4 million in the NHL today???

    RW making less than Ebs who scored equal or more goals (25) this year:

    Wheeler $5.6 million
    Jagr $5.4 million
    Doan $5.3 million
    Neal $5.0 million
    Zucharello $4.5 million
    Erikkson 4.25 million
    Oshie $4.2 million
    Simmons $3.95 million
    Atkinson $3.5 million
    R. Smith 3.25 million
    Palmieri $1.5 million
    Kutcherov 0.895 million

    Only 4 of the 16 RW who scored more than Ebs had higher cap hits: Kane, Tarasenko, Perry and Kessel.

    Really……

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