WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING TO WIN THE LOTTERY AGAIN

Peter Chiarelli was caught on camera watching Canada play Switzerland this afternoon, it struck me the Oilers general manager may not draft any of the kids on the ice. The top three talents this year (Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi) are either not here or play for Finland, and the players ranked No. 4-10 have a wide range.

I think the Oilers list is probably as above, but No. 4 is going to be interesting. I have Pierre-Luc Dubois at that spot with Matthew Tkachuk and Mikhail Sergachev, Olli Joulevi and Jakob Chychrun just behind. You would have to be inside the room on draft day to know how any team ranks them and although all of these men have things to recommend them, there is a chance Edmonton trades down or out on draft day. A few observations from the U18s.

  1. Tyson Jost and Dante Fabbro have both performed extremely well. I imagine their draft stock has risen because of it.
  2. I spoke to Kirk Luedeke from Red Line today, he mentioned Clayton Keller as a player who had impressed him. He also had a lot of nice things to say about Fabbro.
  3. Kailer Yamamoto of the Spokane Chiefs is lighting up the U18s, but he is not eligible until 2017. Impressive young player.
  4. I have David Quenneville No. 16 among WHL kids for this draft, but that might end up being low as an estimate. He is very good.
  5. Ondrej Najman is a Czech center ranked No. 30 Euro but he looks pretty substantial based on the math he is posting.
  6. Alexander Nylander is a real Nylander.
  7. I have C Janne Kuokkanen No. 25 on my current top 60. He appears to be bona fide.
  8. Aapeli Rasanen is improving his rank during this tournament.
  9. Nikolaj Krag is ranked No. 40000 CS Euro but he is having a nice tournament.

THE DRAFT IS ALMOST BAKED

This tournament is basically end of the line for scouts, they will monitor the top two names at the WHCs and of course the CHL and USHL playoffs continue. That said, most of the scouting work is done, and you will see a major spike (or fall) on draft lists. This last tournament is important, especially for the European players. Russian kids got screwed this year, God love ’em. I sincerely hope some of those young men make it to the NHL, anyway.

CHIARELLI’S SECOND DRAFT

So much of the Boston experience for Peter Chiarelli revolved around his first summer, when Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard were added via free agency. At that time, interim GM Jeff Gorton talked about their aggressiveness:

  • Gorton: “We were really aggressive out of the gate. It made it much easier to sign Savard after Chara signed with us. He could see how serious we were about winning.” Source.

What could that mean for Edmonton? One of the things we might want to look for is an early trade, between series. If a club like Anaheim or Chicago loses in the next few days, it could set up a window of opportunity to do business. Now, it is extremely likely nothing happens until after the draft lottery but it is something to keep in mind.

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49 Responses to "WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING TO WIN THE LOTTERY AGAIN"

  1. meanashell11 says:

    I personally believe the Oil do nothing before they know their draft position. Draft first and a big C is there, say good night to Nuge, draft second and Laine is there, say good bye Ebs. Whoever is gone brings back the D. Draft after the first few and all of a sudden its a craps game. Any of these C or D are not going to make the opening night so I look to trade the pick

  2. stush18 says:

    Loved the re on huge this morning LT.

    I also liked the Ryan sproul suggestion. I’m a huge red wings fan and I’ve been wantin to raid their cupboards for about five years now.

    Two years ago I suggested trading for sproul and mrazek (who was in the AHL).

    I just posted that maybe a trade between us with sproul for musil would work. Risky on our end, as sproul would be more likely to be picked of waivers I think. But I think both players might be at a crossroads with there respective teams.

    Also I would love to trade for mantha if it were at all possible. Detroit has been shitting on the players ever since he broke his leg, and they aren’t even playing him in the playoffs right now. I don’t know where a trade proposal would start however.

    Yak for mantha and sproul?

  3. stush18 says:

    meanashell11:
    I personally believe the Oil do nothing before they know their draft position. Draft first and a big C is there, say good night to Nuge, draft second and Laine is there, say good bye Ebs. Whoever is gone brings back the D. Draft after the first few and all of a sudden its a craps game. Any of these C or D are not going to make the opening night so I look to trade the pick

    I don’t think drafting Mathews means nuge is traded. You’re running with two 19 yr old and one 20 yr old centre next year. Very good, but very young. I think Mathews moves to the wing, and pouliot is dealt.

    I can’t see a scenario where nuge is traded unless a older cheaper centre is coming back. Someone needs to be the two way player playing toughs.

  4. Rondo says:

    Seems like the top 3 are set.

    PLD is 200 days younger and has played 1 less season than Tkachuk , plays 3 positions and is a goal scorer.
    Tkachuk seems like he may have potential to be a goal scorer doing well in the playoffs.

    I want to like Chychrun watching him U 18 I’ve been underwhelmed . So far they have played weaker teams but he has not looked dominant.

    I think there will be some pressure in picking a D-man outside the top 3. I hope they take BPA.

  5. Todd Macallan says:

    Brett Howden had 5 pts tonight and has been solid all around (aka range of skills) since joining the team. Picking him at 32 may be a real Boone to the team in a couple of years after passing on Jenner in 2011.

  6. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Rondo:
    Seems like the top 3 are set.

    PLDis 200 days younger and has played 1 less seasonthan Tkachuk ,plays 3 positionsand is a goal scorer.
    Tkachukseems like he may have potential to be a goal scorer doing well in the playoffs.

    I want to like Chychrunwatching himU 18 I’ve been underwhelmed .So far they have played weaker teams but he has not looked dominant.

    I think there will be some pressurein picking a D-man outside the top 3.I hope they take BPA.

    I am also somewhat concerned about the quality of Tkachuk’s linemates. If he is BPA there (say Oilers are drafting 5th), I’d rather trade down if a good trade is to be had and take one of the D.

  7. dustrock says:

    Quenneville is very short but very strong.

    Keller I’ve been mentioning for a while – he’s around Eichel level scoring for USNDT.

  8. speeds says:

    dustrock:
    Quenneville is very short but very strong.

    Keller I’ve been mentioning for a while – he’s around Eichel level scoring for USNDT.

    I was just going to say, I wonder what the reaction would be if the Oilers fall to 5th and draft Keller?

  9. Water Fire says:

    Every pro sports team seeks an edge. The managers jobs depend upon it. Many teams need revenue to survive.

    To say they are all misguided and don’t know what they are doing can’t be completely correct.

    There is a reason the vast majority of NHL players meet a minimum weight height ratio.

    That isn’t to say some who don’t aren’t fantastic NHL players.

    That is to say not very many, not very often become fantastic NHL players.

    The last thing the OiIers need are more long shots longer shotted than the average long shot.

    Let’s go for players that might project into a player the GM and coach might actually utilize, if they should beat the chances.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Water Fire:
    Every pro sports team seeks an edge. The managers jobs depend upon it. Many teams need revenue to survive.

    To say they are all misguided and don’t know what they are doing can’t be completely correct.

    There is a reason the vast majority of NHL players meet a minimum weight height ratio.

    That isn’t to say some who don’t aren’t fantastic NHL players.

    That is to say not very many, not very often become fantastic NHL players.

    The last thing the OiIers need are more long shots longer shotted than the average long shot.

    Let’s go for players that might project into a player the GM and coach might actually utilize, if they should beat the chances.

    Is this about anyone in particular, or a general short people have no reason to live post? 🙂

  11. Ducey says:

    Man, it would sweet if the Oilers actually hit on a good player at #32

  12. RJ2016 says:

    Curious about the following:

    Most Oiler draft summaries focus on the top 5-7 picks, and that makes sense. That’s where the first pick is. But I’d love to see a detailed summary on 15-30. Every year there’s a first year talent that drops relative to projections. Anyone to watch for near the end of the first round that could be there at 32?

    At the same time, they could trade back into the first round. Like if Fabbro was sitting there at 20. Could the Oilers move up?

    Just curious if this was to be covered here.

  13. Spoils says:

    can someone please explain to me why we don’t try and get TWO prospect Ds. Guys like Jake Morrisey that could become a #1. Drafting a D will take too long, trading for a #1 (like PK or OEL) is considered impossible (although I think we have the assets to go after a team that has good D depth like Nashville did when they traded Jones – who granted is still more of a prospect)…

    Where did Ghost Bear come from? What world did Klingberg appear out of? Keith was drafted 54th overall, when did Chicago know what they had?

    Information asymmetry (the owning team knows more) makes this tough… maybe that’s the reason against this route.

    I’m all for adding Hamonic for the time being (and planning to trade or move him down). We have to be better next year, but we WILL NEVER WIN A CUP WITHOUT A #1.

    I would say chase two and if they both cash trade one (or not!)

  14. Water Fire says:

    Lowetide: Is this about anyone in particular, or a general short people have no reason to live post?

    That was a beauty!

    Randy Newman would never draft an undersized player that he would never actually give a fair chance to 🙂 Perhaps except to marry a grandaughter or something.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Water Fire: That was a beauty!

    Randy Newman would never draft an undersized player that he would never actually give a fair chance to :) Perhaps except to marry a grandaughter or something.

    Lol. If I had written this, I would have quit. Everything. You cannot do better than this song (and its inspiration)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtW8RkI3-c4

  16. AsiaOil says:

    I have a feeling that a trade with ANA is done and waiting for our draft slot to be determined and their season to end.

  17. Lowetide says:

    AsiaOil:
    I have a feeling that a trade with ANA is done and waiting for our draft slot to be determined and their season to end.

    People keep telling me it is Pouliot for Vatanen, but there is no evidence of it. That would be a helluva trade, though.

  18. böök¡je says:

    Haven’t been around much – life’s been busy.

    Have they fired the coach yet? It’s nearly May, they must have. Who’s the new coach?

  19. Water Fire says:

    böök¡je:
    Haven’t been around much – life’s been busy.

    Have they fired the coach yet?It’s nearly May, they must have.Who’s the new coach?

    No but we have an underground movement going to find an American birth record for you and funding to take a run at knocking off Trump at the end instead of somebody we can’t control.

    As in WE.

  20. Aron_S says:

    Anyone else pulling for the Blues (against Chicago) in an Oilers vs Dallas way?

    I’m taking great pleasure in the Hawks frustrations and hope St. Louis can advance tonight.

  21. MrEd says:

    Moving the Lottery date back really sucks.
    *stamps foot*

  22. smellyglove says:

    You know what else sucks about our team? Their late round drafting and development.

    Of all the regulars picked by the Oilers, only two were picked after #8–Eberle and Klefbom. Lander is not an NHL player.

    The rest were top 7 picks or trades. So much for picking at the top of every round for a decade and sending players away for picks, perpetually.

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    Spoils:
    can someone please explain to me why we don’t try and get TWO prospect Ds. Guys like Jake Morrisey that could become a #1. Drafting a D will take too long, trading for a #1 (like PK or OEL) is considered impossible (although I think we have the assets to go after a team that has good D depth like Nashville did when they traded Jones – who granted is still more of a prospect)…

    Where did Ghost Bear come from? What world did Klingberg appear out of? Keith was drafted 54th overall, when did Chicago know what they had?

    Information asymmetry (the owning team knows more) makes this tough… maybe that’s the reason against this route.

    I’m all for adding Hamonic for the time being (and planning to trade or move him down). We have to be better next year, but we WILL NEVER WIN A CUP WITHOUT A #1.

    I would say chase two and if they both cash trade one (or not!)

    Nothing is ever that black and white. We can ice a very competitive team with dmen like Hamonic on the first pair. And who knows, between Nurse, Klef, Davidson, Bear, Jones and Paigan, maybe one of those guys develops into a dominating #1. Seems to me at least half the best dmen in the league were selected in round two or later.

  24. AsiaOil says:

    Lowetide: People keep telling me it is Pouliot for Vatanen, but there is no evidence of it. That would be a helluva trade, though.

    Well you know me – I’d prefer to move a RW – but getting Vatanen solves a lot of problems (offensive dman / 2 pair RHD for Sekera) and allows us to get a more defensive guy like Hamonic to play the toughs with Klef. Guess we’ll see.

  25. Ryan says:

    Aron_S:
    Anyone else pulling for the Blues (against Chicago) in an Oilers vs Dallas way?

    I’m taking great pleasure in the Hawks frustrations and hope St. Louis can advance tonight.

    I have to admit that I find it hard to hate the Hawks.

    They’re a small skilled team in the ‘You have to be big to play’ with the teams in the West.

    That and Quenville’s brand of hockey is very entertaining to watch.

    I’ll forever hate the Wild and Predators just because…

  26. "Steve Smith" says:

    Aron_S:
    Anyone else pulling for the Blues (against Chicago) in an Oilers vs Dallas way?

    Well, I mean, St. Louis is the higher seed, so I don’t know if the Edmonton-Dallas analogy holds. I get that we’re in a more…paritous? There’s got to be an adjective there somewhere…era, but Chicago did finish lower in the standings.

    (EDIT: Plus, you know…Ken Hitchcock.)

    I am cheering for St. Louis, though, owing entirely to an obnoxious Hawks fan with whom I work, who has ruined what was once one of my favourite teams for me.

    (This is the same co-worker who, earlier in the season, when both Panarin and McDavid were firing on all cylinders and the latter had yet to be injured, insisted that Panarin was more likely to improve over the course of the season because, unlike McDavid, he had to adjust to playing North American hockey.)

  27. "Steve Smith" says:

    "Steve Smith",

    On that note…Whoo! Fabbri!

  28. "Steve Smith" says:

    As for music, lately I can’t stop listening to this. Mock me if you must, but Lord T’underin’ Blowfish, there’s some serious vocal talent on display there.

    (Though it’s possible that it just sounds like incredible vocal talent to me because of my usual diet of Young, Cohen, Dylan, and Waits.)

  29. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    You know what else sucks about our team? Their late round drafting and development.

    Of all the regulars picked by the Oilers, only two were picked after #8–Eberle and Klefbom. Lander is not an NHL player.

    The rest were top 7 picks or trades. So much for picking at the top of every round for a decade and sending players away for picks, perpetually.

    Tobias Rieder, Brandon Davidson and soon Erik Gustafsson say hello.

  30. Acumen says:

    I’m repeating myself here, but Parayko has been simply incredible this series. I would give my right arm to have him on the Oilers.

  31. "Steve Smith" says:

    Whoo! Backes!

  32. Ice Sage says:

    I apologize for the facile comment but, damn! it woulda been cool to have Prince for the RE.
    That st loo game is ‘delirious’
    So let’s go crazy
    And we will see when Hawks cry

  33. böök¡je says:

    Water Fire: No but we have an underground movement going to find an American birth record for you and funding to take a run at knocking off Trump at the end instead of somebody we can’t control.

    As in WE.

    No worries, I think he might be the right person to wake the Koch brothers and the other 50 or so people who bankroll the whole republican party up regarding the fact that disseminating ignorance and relying on crazy people as your base is a bad plan.

    Trump won’t win Well, unless three weeks before the election some crazy email of Hilary’s comes out…

  34. Ice Sage says:

    böök¡je: No worries, I think he might be the right person to wake the Koch brothers and the other 50 or so people who bankroll the whole republican party up regarding the fact that disseminating ignorance and relying on crazy people as your base is a bad plan.

    Trump won’t winWell, unless three weeks before the election some crazy email of Hilary’s

    … Or a ‘terrorist’ attack …

  35. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ice Sage,

    Or a “moon landing”.

  36. Ice Sage says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Ice Sage,

    Or a “moon landing”.

    yeah! Make the moon great again!!!!!

  37. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ice Sage,

    I tell you, I got the best moons – they’re yuge. Other moons are a bunch of loser moons. Don’t give me that Europa bullshit. My moons are the best – they love me up there.

  38. Professor Q says:

    Ice Sage:
    I apologize for the facile comment but, damn! it woulda been cool to have Prince for the RE.
    That st loo game is ‘delirious’
    So let’s go crazy
    And we will see when Hawks cry

    Raspberry Bure?

  39. adamjames says:

    So if the Blackhawks lose this, how long until the Seabrook for Nuge 1 for 1. For leadership, and “good in the room” and a good ol’ western Canadian boy?

  40. "Steve Smith" says:

    adamjames,

    Seabrook: $6.875 million cap hit from age 31 through 38.
    Nugent-Hopkins: $6 million cap hit from age 23 through 27.

    Chiarelli makes me nervous, but I don’t think he’s a complete moron.

  41. adamjames says:

    "Steve Smith",

    Totally agree.Value is on Nuge’s side. More of an OBC move, does Chicago say no? (Assuming Seabrook waives)

  42. "Steve Smith" says:

    adamjames,

    I don’t think Stan Bowman’s a complete moron, either, so I have to think that Chicago says yes (assuming Seabrook waives, which I can’t imagine he does – I didn’t even realize he had an NTC).

  43. Lowetide says:

    Seabrook is not the answer. Oilers need to get a defenseman who can run with this pack for five years.

  44. stevezie says:

    who: Cmon give me a chance at least

    Man, come on. I had a rough night, and I hate the fucking Eagles, man!

  45. "Steve Smith" says:

    stevezie,

    Get your own fucking cab.

  46. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Tobias Rieder, Brandon Davidson and soon Erik Gustafsson say hello.

    Who are three people who’ve never been in my kitchen?

  47. Ryan says:

    It’s quiet here this morning.

    Staples heard Stauffer mention a Justin Faulk for Nuge trade rumor of sorts. I can’t imagine that Carolina would trade Faulk.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/bob-stauffer-stirs-it-up-with-talk-of-trading-first-pick-or-trading-for-justin-faulk

  48. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ryan: Who are three people who’ve never been in my kitchen?

    Are you serious? Gustafsson’s there right now.

  49. monsterbater says:

    Unless we are drafting top 3, which is highly unlikely, i think the play is to move the pick for immediate D help and keep the steve austins. Another year of development in Drai, some outcome on yak, and resolution of this year’s UFA destinations is crucial before making a move of one of these players.

    IF we manage to luck out again and pick in top 3, you make the pick and likely trade eberle after july 1 should you be able to find a reasonable replacement. Play the top 3 pick in sheltered minutes and give them letestu’s spot on the PP.

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