CALL ME THE TUMBLING DICE

If the Edmonton Oilers are going to make the playoffs, value contracts need to appear and pretty damned quick. I can tell you true that Brandon Davidson and his $1.425 million contract will be a value deal, but are there any others? Back in 2005, coming out of the lockout and entering the cap era, Edmonton delivered six exceptional contracts from players who could help in a big way. Here they are.

  1. Marc Andre Bergeron ($931k). Bergeron played 1600 minutes in the 05-06 season, 350 of that on the powerplay. He delivered 2.74/60 with the man advantage but was pretty solid at EVs (1/60) and his 15-20-35 for the season was exceptional for the price.
  2. Ales Hemsky ($901,740). Hemsky played 1375 minutes in the 05-06 season, slightly over 400 of them on the powerplay. His PP/60 number (6.17) was very nice, his EV number 2.25 was impressive.  That PP number helped him lead the team in scoring (19-58-77) and he delivered 6-11-17 in the playoffs too. A wonderful payoff for less than a million, a season to remember.
  3. Shawn Horcoff ($1M). Horcoff played almost 1600 minutes, almost 300 on the PP and 225 on the PK. In 05-06 he went 3-3-6 on the PK (about 1.6/60), went 4.82/60 on the PP and then 2.44 at EVs and this was against the other team’s good players. Music!
  4. Fernando Pisani ($611,800). In 05-06 he was excellent in the regular year and ridiculous in the postseason. Pisani played 1100 minutes in 05-06, 150 on the PP. He did a lot of heavy lifting at EVs and still managed to score 1.84/60 and 3.59 on the PP. Pisani was Guy Lafleur in the post season, 14-4-18 in a run I will never forget. At $611,800 he was ridiculous value.
  5. Jarret Stoll ($501,600). Stoll played 1500 minutes in 05-06, 410 on the PP and 200 on the PK. He was a pretty valuable hockey player. On the PP he was 4.53 and at EVs he was 2.35 on the way to 82gp, 22-46-68 totals. At the price, he was extremely valuable.
  6. Raffi Torres ($875,000). Raffi played 1100 minutes in 05-06, 224 of them on the PP.  His EV number in 05-06 (2.07)  and his PP number (2.95) were impressive and his physical game was beyond scary. At this price, he was a bargain.

2015-16 $1.5 million or less

  1. Patrick Maroon ($1.5 million). Maroon played 888 minutes in the 15-16 season (all in), 107 on the power play. He delivered 4.49/60 with the man advantage (again, this is both ANA and EDM) and 1.41/60 at 5×5. His Edmonton performance made him one of the most popular citizens in the city. 
  2. Brandon Davidson ($1.425 million). Davidson played 979 minutes in the 15-16 season, 22 of that on the powerplay and 134 on the penalty kill. He delivered 5.41/60 with the man advantage (again, 22 minutes) and was decent at EVs (0.54/60). As good a bet for a value deal as there is for 2015-16.

Credit Peter Chiarelli for acquiring Maroon, he looks like a real find. Also, there could be several value contracts for 2015-16 who are currently on the roster. Among the candidates I see possibly over-delivering are Iiro Pakarinen, Jordan Oesterle, Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira. It is also possible Zack Kassian signs for $1.5 million and delivers, but can’t see that result from here. The Oilers are going to need some of these value contracts coming in this summer and through the next 12 months, because the drafted kids are going to get paid.

Ethan Bear is a player this blog identified about this time last season as being a talented two-way player. His 2015-16 season built on it, and he is now at a point-per-game in the playoffs. Terrific stuff. I think it is logical to suggest a contract with Edmonton gets done after his season ends (Caleb Jones already has his done, happened at the conclusion of his year) and that 2015 draft has some nice arrows. Miles to go, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but good days.

PLEASE PARSING ME

I wrote about Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban yesterday, put them on the blue sky shopping list. Several folks wrote back worrying over my sanity, and I get that for sure. However, important to remember that the rumors (especially about Subban) are in fact floating out in the ether.

Hmmm. Interesting turn of phrase. Now there can be misunderstandings with even the simplest statements, but it is kind of a strange sentence. It is miles from ‘PK Subban will be at Canadiens camp this fall, book it’ and the statement did not stop speculation.

Hmmm again. Parsing words here, but Wilde’s reaction was about like mine—window open at least a little. Probably nothing, let’s move along here, but something to keep in mind for the coming weeks. The thing I don’t see about Subban is a match with Edmonton. If Montreal is dealing Subban, surely they want a substantial defenseman with NHL experience in return. Edmonton doesn’t have that, and none of their youngsters—despite the clear potential of Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse—are going to move the needle. Montreal is also one of the few teams who has a Taylor Hall (Max Pacioretty) so that is also a non-starter. The Habs are unlikely to have tremendous interest in the lottery pick.

What then, are they going to give Montreal for Subban? I do not see a deal.

Karma is a bitch. A sweet, beautiful bitch.

I think Jesse has it right. If Karlsson is available, the potential deal (say, Nuge, Eberle, Nurse for Karlsson, Clarke MacArthur and Curtis Lazar to make the money work) would clean out the forwards and you would probably still say yes. I very much doubt the Senators are insane, but you never know. It is shaping up as an interesting summer.

CHIARELLI WON’T MAKE A BIG TRADE LIKE THAT!

Peter Chiarelli’s major trades with the Boston Bruins.

  • Traded Wayne Primeau, Brad Stuart and a fourth-round pick to Andrew Ference and Chuck Kobasew.
  • Traded Brad Boyes to St. Louis Blues for Dennis Wideman.
  • Traded Phil Kessel to Toronto Maple Leafs for two first-round picks and a second-round selection.
  • Traded Dennis Wideman, plus first and third-round picks to the Florida Panthers for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell.
  • Traded Tyler Seguin, Rich Peverley and Ryan Button to the Dallas Stars for Loui Eriksson, Reilly Smith, Joe Morrow and Matt Fraser.
  • Traded Johnny Boychuk to NY Islanders for a package of draft picks.

ACQUIRING BOYCHUK

One of the most interesting trades in Chiarelli’s back story was the acquisition of Johnny Boychuk. Colorado took him in 2002, and by spring 2008 he had played in only four NHL games. To give you an idea about how long Boychuk waited, Brandon Davidson has played in 63 NHL games during the same time frame. Chiarelli dealt Matt Hendricks for him, and Boychuk spent 78 more games in the minors—although he spiked offensively, scoring more points than he had ever scored, including junior. Boychuk’s rookie season was 2009-10, he was 25.

Anyone with a similar resume in the minors? Well, Morgan Ellis is somewhat similar, Brenden Kichton and Ryan Sproul too, and I do like Taylor Aronson based purely on math. Most of these men shoot right, and surely Peter Chiarelli will look for more balance in this area over the next eight weeks.

NEW TOP 60

I will publish a new top 60 for the 2016 draft at 5 this afternoon (Edmonton time). The U18s are definitely reflected in the new rankings, would love to hear your reaction to the tournament and who caught your eye. This tournament is absolutely a small sample size, but our only real chance to see a player like Dante Fabbro (or Tyson Jost) against their own age group at this level. Very instructive, bet scouts are revising their lists as they head to meetings (I believe they happen in the next few weeks across the NHL).

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59 Responses to "CALL ME THE TUMBLING DICE"

  1. RJ2016 says:

    Come rain, snow or sleet, LT’s article is always there. I don’t know if people acknowledge that enough.

  2. gogliano says:

    Maybe I’m overestimating the top 3 picks this year, but the idea of dealing both of RNH and Eberle in a megadeal for a Dman gets a lot more palatable if we’re also picking up Matthews or one of the Finns via the draft. All three seem like slam dunk top six players in the league.

  3. RJ2016 says:

    Karlsson would be amazing. That’s miles above the Vatanen/Barrie talk I’ve been seeing.

  4. Kmart99 says:

    Whatever the big trade ends up being, I’m sure it will be bold.

  5. slopitch says:

    The next 5 years of karlsson and McDavid together would be so damn fun

  6. murphy says:

    Yakupov and musil for kevin hayes and the rights to yandle.

    Eberle, fayne, rights to yandle, and the 2017 1st for subban.

  7. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I would trade the sun, moon and the stars for Karlsson.

  8. Mr DeBakey says:

    gogliano: Maybe I’m overestimating the top 3 picks this year, but the idea of dealing both of RNH and Eberle

    Maybe
    This time of year we’re looking at an exciting list of future Orrs, LaFleurs and Yzermans.
    Slam dunk Top Sixers all.
    But not next season.
    Or the season after.

  9. Kmart99 says:

    A few points on goals off the rush vs cycle.

    1). Shouldn’t this be a debate between dump-ins vs carry-ins?
    We know that if you carry the puck in you’re more likely to score than if you dump it in. We also know that if you ONLY carry it in you will become predictable so sometimes you have to dump it in for the sake of helping the carry in .

    2) You can still start a strong cycle if a scoring chance off the rush doesn’t work. If you are a team that is extremely good at cycling the puck and maintaining possession, you’re not going to get many opportunities off the rush.

    3). In order to get an opportunity for a goal off the rush you have to give up possession. The puck starts in your end. If you’re a team that gets a ton of opportunities off the rush then you also had the puck in your own end far too many times.

    Maybe if you’re a team that is #1 at stealing the puck in your own end, #1 and preventing zone entries, #1 and creating turnovers when the opposition enters your zone, #1 at controlled zone entries, but dead last at keeping the puck in the opposition’s zone after a rush scoring chance you could lead the league in goals. But that seems ass backwards to me.

    The kings were great at cycling and maintaining possession, but they need

  10. GXL says:

    A trade for Ryan Sproul would be most welcomed. He seems to be ripe to be in the NHL but is blocked by a good Red WIngs Defence. It would interesting to have both Sproul and Nurse on the same team again (both Soo alumnus). Has Sproul improved his foot speed?

    GXL

  11. sliderule says:

    Chychrun had a big game against swedes .Goal and two assists.He seemed to get better and calmer each game .

    He made a great rush and got off a good shot in overtime that reminded me of Coffey.On the powerplay and 5on5 he as able to make a play or get his shot thru.Very few blocked.There is a very good chance that whomever drafts him will have him in NHL next year.

    Fabbro was very consistent through the tournament and surprised me at how well he played defensively..I kind of expected the offence but the defence was a surprise.

    Chychrun and Fabbro as a pair dominated on the ice and it’s my bet that both will be top one defencemen in the NHL.

  12. Woogie63 says:

    Kmart99,

    With four lines, a team showed be able to be effective off the rush and the cycle.

  13. leadfarmer says:

    I think the asking price for Karlsson will be at least Nuge and Nurse and likely all three without anything else coming back. If he’s really on the market there is going to be a lot of bidders.

  14. GCW_69 says:

    From LATimes.com

    “Now You See Me 2

    The Four Horsemen return for more magic and tangle with an unethical tech magnate. With Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson. Written by Ed Solomon, story by Solomon & Peter Chiarelli, based on characters created by Boaz Yakin & Edward Ricourt. Directed by Jon M. Chu. Summit Entertainment”

    Now we know why Chiarelli didn’t fix the defence this past season. He was too busy working on a script.

  15. OF17 says:

    Mr DeBakey: Maybe
    This time of year we’re looking at an exciting list of future Orrs, LaFleurs and Yzermans.
    Slam dunk Top Sixers all.
    But not next season.
    Or the season after.

    I’ll be surprised if Matthews and Laine can’t be top-6 forwards next season. Puljujarvi I agree seems less likely to make an immediate impact, but if our pick is top 2, that pick will be on the team and producing next year IMO.

    Karlsson would be an absolute game changer. McDavid should be the only untouchable in that deal. I would hate to lose Hall, hate it, but if that’s what it takes, you have to do it. McDavid and Karlsson on the ice together would be one of the league’s all-time most exciting pairings.

  16. dustrock says:

    sliderule:
    Chychrun had a big game against swedes .Goal and two assists.He seemed to get better and calmer each game .

    He made a great rush and got off a good shot in overtime that remindedme of Coffey.On the powerplay and 5on5 he as able to make a play or get his shot thru.Very few blocked.There is a very good chance that whomever drafts him will have him in NHL next year.

    Fabbro was very consistent through the tournament and surprised me at how well he played defensively..I kind of expected the offence but the defence was a surprise.

    Chychrun and Fabbro as a pair dominated on the ice and it’s my bet that both will be top one defencemen in the NHL.

    The game against Sweden was the Chychrun I was expecting all along. Don’t know if he was holding back before, at least offensively. But last night he looked like Hanifin.

    If the Oilers had a better, more veteran D corpse he could play in the NHL next year, at least he’s got a man’s body and definitely NHL speed. Once again, the AHL would be perfect for him. Sigh.

  17. who says:

    Think you are right. Don’t see a match at all with Montreal for a Subban deal. Karlson from Ottawa is a better fit for a trade but I don’t think Ottawa has the depth on defense to let him go and not sure what Edmonton could offer on defense for him. Ottawa is light on the left wing and Edmonton is light on righty shooting forwards so something like Hall and Nurse for Karlson and Lazar may work. Edmonton would probably have to add a piece but I don’t think it would have to be a large piece. Just remember that Karlson is not exactly a shut down dman. He is one of the great offensive dman of all time but his play in his own end without the puck is gonna rermind a lot of people of Justin Shultz. When Karlson, or his team, has the puck he is very good. When he doesn’t, he is mediocre at best.

  18. Rondo says:

    The same problem I have with McLeod I have with Chychrun. You would think wth their exceptional skating and size they would dominate in the OHL. They don’t. I don’t see Chychrun a top 5 in this draft.

  19. Richard S.S. says:

    Does anyone know if the Draft Lottery is televised? None of the Sports Networks have it listed as yet. Very strange that Rogers isn’t promoting the Lottery full-bore. With their Revenue losses, they should be doing everything possible to restore some value.

    The Oilers’ 1st Round Pick, #1 – #5, will be traded, of that I have no doubt. The asset value of the Pick will vary from G.M.-to-G.M., depending on needs and desires. It may not be enough to get the job done on it’s own.

    It would be nice, but not necessary, to have a 1st round Pick returning. The Oilers’ only 2nd Round Pick in 2016 and 2017 is #32 this year. That is a golden pick, basically late 1st Round. A lot of first round talent still remains available. The Oilers need a 2nd for trading to Boston (for Chiarelli) and a 2nd for 2017. Both aren’t necessary this year as next year would be fine.

    I can see both Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent Hopkins traded if the need arises, but we won’t be pleased with the return. I do not want to trade Jordan Eberle, right-handers of his caliber are seldom available and rarely at a fair price. Others may go, but that’s an expected price. It’s time to change the culture of this Club, especially the culture of losing.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Does anyone know if the Draft Lottery is televised?None of the Sports Networks have it listed as yet.Very strange that Rogers isn’t promoting the Lottery full-bore.With their Revenue losses, they should be doing everything possible to restore some value.

    The Oilers’ 1st Round Pick, #1 – #5, will be traded, of that I have no doubt.The asset value of the Pick will vary from G.M.-to-G.M., depending on needs and desires.It may not be enough to get the job done on it’s own.

    It would be nice, but not necessary, to have a 1st round Pick returning.The Oilers’ only 2nd Round Pick in 2016 and 2017 is #32 this year.That is a golden pick, basically late 1st Round.A lot of first round talent still remains available.The Oilers need a 2nd for trading to Boston (for Chiarelli) and a 2nd for 2017.Both aren’t necessary this year as next year would be fine.

    I can see both Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent Hopkins traded if the need arises, but we won’t be pleased with the return.I do not want to trade Jordan Eberle, right-handers of his caliber are seldom available and rarely at a fair price.Others may go, but that’s an expected price.It’s time to change the culture of this Club, especially the culture of losing.

    5pm our time Saturday iirc. I have seen ads for it.

  21. Frank the dog says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think the asking price for Karlsson will be at least Nuge and Nurse and likely all three without anything else coming back.If he’s really on the market there is going to be a lot of bidders.

    Back in the day I would be scared of the GM doing just that. Now, as someone said I another chain, you have more chance of winning a Lotto Max without a ticket than that happening. If we want to project what Chia might do then try to get inside his head like all the other GMs do to each other.
    1) Chia will already have his minimum trade value for every player on the team. targeted players and player types.
    2) Chia will only trade to address weakness without losing strength on the ice.
    3) Chia will trade good players who don’t fit his player type at the right price. I’d suspect that includes players who have asked out, and players who have a negative impact on the team regardless of skill.
    5) Certain dominoes will have to fall before we see action. I suspect that before the lottery we will only see opportunistic trades, i.e. taking advantage of weakness to get a targeted player. I suspect the lottery will be the first domino to fall, and will trigger a group of consequential actions, each one heading in a direction determined by the prior transaction.

    Nonetheless, have fun by all means.

  22. Woogie63 says:

    When does the NHL re-lease the 2016-17 schedule?

  23. rickithebear says:

    Non cup winning gm’s and lowetides blog infer offensive d with bottom hsca d are norris elite.

    Recent 2 cup winning gm infers. Norris d play d and get in playoffs.

    The builders of the critcal core of 5 of the last 6 cups Tallon and Lombardi had the deepest top 60 hsca d.

    Tallon has created a florida team with the deepest hsca d in league.

    Tell me how hsca d do not matter?

  24. rickithebear says:

    sliderule:
    Chychrun had a big game against swedes .Goal and two assists.He seemed to get better and calmer each game .

    He made a great rush and got off a good shot in overtime that remindedme of Coffey.On the powerplay and 5on5 he as able to make a play or get his shot thru.Very few blocked.There is a very good chance that whomever drafts him will have him in NHL next year.

    Fabbro was very consistent through the tournament and surprised me at how well he played defensively..I kind of expected the offence but the defence was a surprise.

    Chychrun and Fabbro as a pair dominated on the ice and it’s my bet that both will be top one defencemen in the NHL.

    He looked real weak around the net.
    But he was involved in 2 gf and 1 ga.

    His poor net protection and abandoning defence for offence looks just like nurses pkay this year in the nhl.
    Which translates so well. Being as nurse was one of the 5 worst hsca d in the game.
    Which was not any part of the reason for missing the playoffs.

  25. BLH Playoffs Weekly Recap April 17th-April 23rd - Beer League Heroes says:

    […] Lowetide ponders if Peter Chiarelli could go big game hunting. […]

  26. rickithebear says:

    Woogie63:
    Kmart99,

    With four lines, a team showed be able to be effective off the rush and the cycle.

    With 3 strong hsca d pairs we make the playoffs and likely the conf final.

  27. blainer says:

    I predict a very big trade and possibly even for Karlsson.

    This trade IMO would cost Nuge Nurse Yak Reinhart and maybe Fayne with money held back . A five for one. Ottawa is low on prospects in their system both up front and on D. They do have a decent young team but like us need to make changes.

    Put Klef with Karlsson to help even out the box area for Ricki… If Klef can come back at his pace before the injury.

    Sign Stamkos to replace Nuge and and watch out for that PP. Make room on the cap to sign Demers and we are not just in the playoffs but could make some noise when we get there. IF we can STAY healthy !!

  28. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide,

    I have a good Sports package (Optik TV), but the NHL Draft Lottery is not listed on any Channel (1-1000) from 1500 to 2000 on that day or any other. So would it be fair to ask what channel(s) it might be on?

  29. Pretendergast says:

    rickithebear,

    Where do you get your hsca stats?

  30. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki can you do some comparisons of the upper echelon HCSA D against another metric, like the dreaded Corsi ? Or maybe just 5×5 PPG

    I want to know what I’m giving up by having D who essentially provide easy shooting lanes/keep attacking forwards outside the slot and enable the goalie to make routine saves.

    I’m of the opinion that Chia needs to find 3 proven 2/3 D (Sekera/Klef/????) and 2 emerging 2/3/4 (Davi, ??,??) Keep the high risk, low minute, poor skating D off the roster.

    Good teams do this internally after establishing the top 4, since we don’t have this luxury, who’s cupboard does Chia raid ?

    I’m high on Colin Miller…….where would he slot on your matrix ?

  31. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Lowetide,

    I have a good Sports package (Optik TV), but the NHL Draft Lottery is not listed on any Channel (1-1000) from 1500 to 2000 on that day or any other.So would it be fair to ask what channel(s) it might be on?

    Promo just had it on Sportsnet at 5pm Saturday Edmonton time. Channel 223. May be on CBC too for all I know.

  32. Acumen says:

    Personally, I see the match for Ottawa being Colorado if Karlsson really is on the market. They can start with Duchene and Barrie and keep building from there, the rosters match more.

    I see the roster imbalances between Montreal and us coming much closer. We can start with Nuge, add one of Yakupov or Eberle, dangle Nurse or Reinhart, and swap Eller for Fayne to offset the holes that open up. I also think Subban would really be a hit in the city and media of Edmonton. Albertans like genuine, and Subban is definitely that.

    Since yesterday, I’m really dreaming/hoping Faulk is somehow on the table though. Again, a Nuge for Faulk deal makes alot of sense to me. He really would be the perfect addition considering skillset, value, contract, and age.

    And ever since the playoffs opened, Colton Parayko has been my pipe dream and might even be on his way to the top of my favorite players list. I would move Leon for him.

    Hamonic, Vatanen, Shattenkirk and Demers are all also great options. It could and should be a very exciting summer for right handed D in this league.

    I’m reasonably confident we should be able to add a defenseman too, Pete 😉

  33. Ryan says:

    Pretendergast:
    rickithebear,

    Where do you get your hsca stats?

    I’m assuming war on ice.

    When I look at the Hsca data, it looks like there are some likely very strong team effects, pairing effects, and of course a big impact from QOC.

    Ricki has his own adjustment for QOC, but I don’t think even he knows where that data comes from.

  34. Mustard Tiger says:

    Every time I see HSCA I read it as High Scoring Chance Against

    Is it not High Danger Scoring Chance Against, and should be abbreviated as HDSCA?

  35. Woodguy says:

    dustrock: The game against Sweden was the Chychrun I was expecting all along. Don’t know if he was holding back before, at least offensively.But last night he looked like Hanifin.

    If the Oilers had a better, more veteran D corpse he could play in the NHL next year, at least he’s got a man’s body and definitely NHL speed. Once again, the AHL would be perfect for him. Sigh.

    Derien Hatcher tried to change the way he played.

    Now that he’s not playing for Hatcher he’s the player we expect.

    His 16 year old year (pre-Hatcher) was better than Ekblad and is second to only Doughty’s amazing 16 year old year in recent memory.

    16 year old year:

    Doughty 1.1pts/gm
    Ekblad 0.63pts/gm
    Chychrun 0.79pts/gm

    Doughty was hurt in his draft year and only put up 0.86pts/gm (compared poorly to his 16 year old year), but LAK still took him 2nd overall.

    Whoever takes Chychrun will be getting a very, very, very good Dman who was hobbled by a shoulder injury and rookie coach/owner who changed the way he played.

  36. Clay says:

    Lowetide: Promo just had it on Sportsnet at 5pm Saturday Edmonton time. Channel 223. May be on CBC too for all I know.

    I wonder if the NHL Centre Ice package will give you access. Probably not…

  37. Clay says:

    Woodguy: Derien Hatcher tried to change the way he played.

    Now that he’s not playing for Hatcher he’s the player we expect.

    His 16 year old year (pre-Hatcher) was better than Ekblad and is second to only Doughty’s amazing 16 year old year in recent memory.

    16 year old year:

    Doughty 1.1pts/gm
    Ekblad 0.63pts/gm
    Chychrun 0.79pts/gm

    Doughty was hurt in his draft year and only put up 0.86pts/gm (compared poorly to his 16 year old year), but LAK still took him 2nd overall.

    Whoever takes Chychrun will be getting a very, very, very good Dman who was hobbled by a shoulder injury and rookie coach/owner who changed the way he played.

    This is interesting insight.

    It makes me wish they’d bump the draft up to 19 year olds. I think just that one extra year would mean a lot in evaluating dmen.

  38. maudite says:

    Yes to Karlson no to subban. Only player I want to see with an 8 million + salary in the structure is McDavid.

    There are very few circumstances that would have me even considering this years first in play if it’s top 3 pick. Better for it once Mcdavid gets paid to have even one more year left on a value deal for a player like Laine. The goal is at least be in the photo for a wild card spot at the finish line next year IMO. Hope for and target higher, but that is my pass/fail line.

    If Nurse can be solid piece in getting me a RHD (either all around top 1-3 guy or 3-4 guy with power play shot and puck movement) who has 3+ years on contract and with 2+ years of established NHL level play under their belt, it would get done. I like Nurse but I honestly think, factoring net present value in reworking overall D structure and learning curve relative to forwards, he’s cashable at this point. Does he have a higher future value? Possibly. But i’m betting even if that’s the case it would require misrembering our log jam on guys who should be slotted out of the gate as playing 3rd pairing LHD (Davidson, Nurse, Reinhart) and our near invisible RHD and PP point shot options.

  39. godot10 says:

    maudite:
    Yes to Karlson no to subban.Only player I want to see with an 8 million + salary in the structure is McDavid.

    Karlsson only has 3 more years at $6.5 million, right? He will be over $10 million one year after McDavid is over $10 million.

    Subban is locked in at $9 million for far longer.

    I have no Karlsson’s (or Subban’s) dancing in my head. Melnyk saying anyone could be dealt was mostly boilerplate. Both are highly unlikely to be available.

  40. Rondo says:

    Woodguy: Derien Hatcher tried to change the way he played.

    Now that he’s not playing for Hatcher he’s the player we expect.

    His 16 year old year (pre-Hatcher) was better than Ekblad and is second to only Doughty’s amazing 16 year old year in recent memory.

    16 year old year:

    Doughty 1.1pts/gm
    Ekblad 0.63pts/gm
    Chychrun 0.79pts/gm

    Doughty was hurt in his draft year and only put up 0.86pts/gm (compared poorly to his 16 year old year), but LAK still took him 2nd overall.

    Whoever takes Chychrun will be getting a very, very, very good Dman who was hobbled by a shoulder injury and rookie coach/owner who changed the way he played.

    Where would you take him in the draft?

  41. Madtown Oil says:

    People on here frequently talk about the Detroit model–recognizing developing players in the minor is what good organization do. This is how teams get value contracts, which is critical in cap league.

    Can we agree that, at least in part, the Oilers haven’t been in a position to do this cause they lack depth on NHL roster? Doesn’t trading 3 or 4 NHL players for 1 put the team further away from reaching the goal of being both balanced and having depth to draft and develop?–just when this is finally starting to be in reach.

    Gutting team for four years of Karlsson is just doubling down on the poor management this team has had. There is no quick fix–winning organizations draft and develop and manage assets.

  42. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Derien Hatcher

    Hey LT. You really need to get control of the foul language on this site!

    🙂

  43. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Is not the draft lottery announcement typically done during a game broadcast?

  44. speeds says:

    LT, I’ll be curious to see where you have Keller ranked!

  45. RPG says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I have Shaw. 223 (sports net) will be in the middle of a Blue Jays game Saturday at 5. 209 (CBC) has hockey central at 4:30 and the Hockey game at 5:00. That is where the draft lottery will likely be broadcast imo.

  46. Lois Lowe says:

    I know the Oilers probably won’t be able to pry him from Philly, but gords would I like to see Wayne Simmonds on the right wing with McDavid.

  47. El Duderino says:

    Madtown Oil:
    People on here frequently talk about the Detroit model–recognizing developing players in the minor is what good organization do. This is how teams get value contracts, which is critical in cap league.

    Can we agree that, at least in part, the Oilers haven’t been in a position to do this cause they lack depth on NHL roster? Doesn’t trading 3 or 4 NHL players for 1 put the team further away from reaching the goal of being both balanced and having depth to draft and develop?–just when this is finally starting to be in reach.

    Gutting team for four years of Karlsson is just doubling down on the poor management this team has had. There is no quick fix–winning organizations draft and develop and manage assets.

    Agreed.

  48. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: Hey LT.You really need to get control of the foul language on this site!

    :)

    I KNOW!

  49. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Is not the draft lottery announcement typically done during a game broadcast?

    Last year it went (iirc) just before 5pm and was in the pre-game portion of a game. But a year ago is not 25 years ago, 25 year ago is clearer. 🙂

  50. commonfan14 says:

    Lowetide: 5pm our time Saturday iirc. I have seen ads for it.

    So it seems like there are 2 options for the reveal show:

    Option A:
    Turn over the cards in order, showing the gold, silver and bronze cards whenever they landed in that order, stopping when the last of the lottery cards is revealed.

    Option B:
    Skip the cards for the winning teams as they come up in the order, with the lottery cards revealed at the end from bronze to gold.

    Option B seems way more likely since it ensures that the #1 pick is revealed last, but it could get a little weird if the lottery picks are all won by teams early in the order. I guess you just skip to the top picks once the third team is skipped, doing a little recap of which teams have won and then revealing the order.

    Either way, it’s impossible to keep Leaf fans interested until the end unless they win one of the top picks.

  51. stush18 says:

    I think chychrun, like hanifin last year, will turn into this generations version of Ryan suter. Very similar style wise to me.

    My draft order goes Mathews, laine, then chychrun. If we pick any lower, I trade down for a dman (say Barrie) and draft whoevers available.

  52. speeds says:

    commonfan14,

    I would guess they’ll do away with the gold card idea, and just reveal the draft order in reverse.

    maybe reveal 14-4, then a commercial break, followed by 3 and probably just 1.

    You’ll be able to tell who is in the top 3 if and when things start to get out of order, but that seems like a fun way to do it to me, building the tension.

    *edit* And if it so happened that 3 teams initially picking, say, 7, 10 and 12 were in the top 3, yeah, the drama isn’t there right until the end of the first segment, but fairly close. It could happen, but it’s pretty unlikely we’d see something like 10, 12 and 14 as the 3 lotto winners. In that event, they could either skip the cards or just go through them pretty quickly.

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    Acumen:
    Personally, I see the match for Ottawa being Colorado if Karlsson really is on the market. They can start with Duchene and Barrie and keep building from there, the rosters match more.

    I see the roster imbalances between Montreal and us coming much closer. We can start with Nuge, add one of Yakupov or Eberle, dangle Nurse or Reinhart, and swap Eller for Fayne to offset the holes that open up. I also think Subban would really be a hit in the city and media of Edmonton. Albertans like genuine, and Subban is definitely that.

    Since yesterday, I’m really dreaming/hoping Faulk is somehow on the table though. Again, a Nuge for Faulk deal makes alot of sense to me. He really would be the perfect addition considering skillset, value, contract, and age.

    And ever since the playoffs opened, Colton Parayko has been my pipe dream and might even be on his way to the top of my favorite players list. I would move Leon for him.

    Hamonic, Vatanen, Shattenkirk and Demers are all also great options. It could and should be a very exciting summer for right handed D in this league.

    I’m reasonably confident we should be able to add a defenseman too, Pete

    Just the sheer volume of options available to PC makes this a really exciting summer. The task is daunting for sure, finding two top four dmen, but there’s everything from elite offensive dmen to solid defensive guys. For my money, I think PC does something none of us have even considered. Can’t wait!!!

  54. Oilspill says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    I would to if Karlsson wasn’t a minus player. All world offensively all aaa midget defensively.

  55. Gerta Rauss says:

    omg this last period of Dallas Minny is exciting…

  56. Gerta Rauss says:

    speeds,

    I think you’re pretty close…they’ll reveal 14-4 then a commercial break, with everyone well aware of who the lottery winners are(but not the order)

    Then they’ll reveal 3

    Then they’ll reveal the winner

    *edit* never mind, that’s exactly what you said..lol….

  57. Bruce McCurdy says:

    speeds:
    commonfan14,

    I would guess they’ll do away with the gold card idea, and just reveal the draft order in reverse.

    Don’t forget this is the NHL we’re talking about. My guess is they’ll go with gold, silver & bronze cards, then cheap out on the printing to the point that gold & bronze are indistinguishable.

  58. Lowetide says:

    ‘Before we go over to the silly podium and Mr. Daly, Connor McDavid joins us. Connor, we all know how devastated you were, we actually had a voice expert review the tape and he said you were approaching stasis, how long did it take you to recover and what advice to you have for Auston Matthews if the unthinkable happens again.’

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