HARD 60

We are less than a week away from the annual draft lottery, which—if things break right—could become a national holiday for Oilers nation. This week, we had a chance to see many of these young eligibles at the U18s in Grand Forks. Impressions were made.

OILERS DRAFT PICKS (PROJECTED) 2016

  1. No. 2 overall
  2. No. 32 overall
  3. No. 62 overall
  4. No. 85 overall (Florida pick)
  5. No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)
  6. No. 122 overall
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)
  8. No. 152 overall
  9. No. 182 overall

THE LATEST 60

  1. (1) C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): Complete offensive player. I have heard scouts say he is equal in talent with Jack Eichel.
  2. (2) W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): Power W, pushing for No. 1 spot and has reached it on at least one scouting list.
  3. (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Played very well in U18s and displays a nice range of skills. Perhaps shy of the top two offensively, he is a fast man with size and skill.
  4. (4) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL): Rugged, quality PF. If you asked me to identify a Peter Chiarelli player, this is him.
  5. (5)  L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): Big forward, playmaker. Seems to be fading as we get closer to draft day, the math adores him but the TOI is not available to us.
  6. (6) LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): Mobile defender with offensive acumen. I think he is the top D in the draft, but it could be any of six men (all listed inside the top 15 on this list).
  7. (7) LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): Substantial offensive defenseman. I think Edmonton would value him highly, to the point where he might be No. 1 D on their list (I prefer Sergachev).
  8. (10) C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): He could be a special player. The most impressive player (for me) at the U18s. Lordy.
  9. (8) LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): Fantastic skater, complete defender. Seems to be slipping in the rankings, suspect it has to do with his being very good at everything and without having one overwhelming skill. Offensively, he is in this group and not better than this group, and that might cost him draft position (teams may feel he is being passed by others).
  10. (17) RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL): Extremely effective with the puck on his stick, tremendous player against his own age group. Very impressive U18s.
  11. (9) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): Small super sniper.
  12. (11) RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA). Complete D, rising up the list.
  13. (15) LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL):Intelligent D, recently injured.
  14. (14) R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga (OHL): Brilliant scorer, fast hands, great skater.
  15. (22) L Tyson Jost, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). Outstanding at U18s.
  16. (12) R Vitalii Abramov, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). Explosive scorer. Dynamic.
  17. (13) C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): Impressive offensive skills.
  18. (16) C-L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). Scoring forward.
  19. (18) L Adam Mascherin, Kitchener Rangers (OHL): Undersized scoring W. Bona fide.
  20. (19) C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Playmaking PF, great skater. Gritty.
  21. (20) C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): Luedeke: has skating & shot of prolific scorer.
  22. (21) C-R Pascal Laberge, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Has two-way skills, very aggressive.
  23. (24) C Tage Thompson, Connecticut Huskies (NCAA). Legit skill player.
  24. (25) C Janne Kuokkanen, Karpat (Fin Jr). Highly skilled C, good speed. Playmaker.
  25. (23) G Tyler Parsons, London Knights (OHL). He looks substantial based on numbers. .921
  26. (26) R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). Power winger who can score.
  27. (27) G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): Quality prospect, elite when healthy.
  28. (28) LD Lucas Johansen, Kelowna Rockets (WHL).  A scout saw shades of Brent Seabrook.
  29. (29) C Will Bitten, Flint Firebireds (OHL): Fast skater, scoring playmaker. Intriguing.
  30. (32) C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). Fine two-way forward.
  31. (30) L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Keeping his value well.
  32. (33) C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). He is 6.0, 180 and quality two-way forward.
  33. (31) R Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Speed and skill.
  34. (34) R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): Great hands, speed is an issue.
  35. (35) L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). Big W, buzz on this guy is pretty massive.
  36. (42) G Filip Gustavsson, Lulea (SHL): Big G with a .910 SHL SP. Impressive.
  37. (37) L Carl Grundstrom, MoDo (SHL): Speedy scoring-winger playing Euro pro.
  38. (38) L Kyle Maksimovich, Erie Otters (OHL). Small, very skilled player.
  39. (39) L Vladimir Kuznetsov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL): Big, strong and skilled.
  40. (40) D Kale Clague, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Creative puck moving defender.
  41. (36) G Jeremy Helvig, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Outstanding numbers, big. Only 27GP. .929
  42. (41) C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Big skill F with smarts.
  43. (44) LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL): Kournianos: Dineen is a high-end puck mover.
  44. (45) L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL). Punishing forward, with skill.
  45. (46) C Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): Speedy, undersized WHL scorer.
  46. (43) C Adam Brooks, Regina Pats (WHL). Brilliant offensive season. Substantial talent.
  47. (47) R Matthew Phillips, Victoria Royals (WHL). Tiny, brilliant offensive winger.
  48. (51) C Jordan Kyrou, Sarnia Sting (OHL). C with complete skill set, could be a steal.
  49. (48) D Samuel Girard, Shawinigian (QMJHL). The new M-A Bergeron.
  50. (49) C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL). Skill C had subpar season, impressive playoffs.
  51. (50) C Brett Howden, Moose Jaw (WHL). Good skater, skill center. Solid prospect.
  52. (52) R Yegor Korshkov, Yaroslavl (KHL). Brilliant WJs, big and skilled winger.
  53. (53) C Noah Gregor, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Two-way C, aggressive.
  54. (54) LD Victor Mete, London Knights (OHL). Brock Otten says he is an offensive catalyst.
  55. (55) L Cameron Morrison, Youngstown (USHL). Skill winger, fine skater, shooter.
  56. (56) LD Dennis Cholowski, Chilliwack Chiefs (BCJHL). Smooth skater, smart blue.
  57. (58) C Dmitri Sokolov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Big F, strong, aggressive. Solid offense.
  58. (60) L Boris Katchouk, SSM (OHL). Rugged, throwback W with skill.
  59. (NR) C Brandon Gignac, Shawinigan (QMJHL). Skill C, nice numbers. Red Line Report: Slick playmaker has a knack for finding open ice and open teammates.  Not flashy, but has good hockey sense. Source
  60. (NR) C Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Always pay attention to RLR. Woodlief: Astonishing improvement in his skating, and his development has been so rapid in the second half that it’s like watching a completely different player. Source

BONUS—OILERS MOCK

  1. No. 2 overall—W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga)
  2. No. 32 overall—C Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
  3. No. 62 overall—D Frederic Allard, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL)
  4. No. 85 overall (Florida pick)—C Dmitri Sokolov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
  5. No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)—D David Quenneville, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
  6. No. 122 overall—L Egor Babenko, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)—G Michael McNiven, Owen Sound Attack (OHL)
  8. No. 152 overall—D Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL)
  9. No. 182 overall—C Pius Suter, ZSC Lions (NLA)

The first three forwards all have size and skill in various measure and the first two defenders shoot RH and can move the puck. I should have them picking a goalie, but am kind of hoping Peter Chiarelli ignores his goalie scouts (their names are not known, in order to protect them). Heavy on the OHL—folks, that league is rocking with talent this year—and the three WHL kids are under the radar but substantial talents. The Finn arrives this fall and the rest take some time. Edmonton badly needs all of these picks to re-stock the cupboard. I will bet money—this is me talking—some of these picks end up in Montreal, New York or St. Louis.

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44 Responses to "HARD 60"

  1. spoiler says:

    I will consider any team not the Maple Leafs taking the #1 slot as a “win”. Nothing would please my ears more than hearing the gnashing of teeth that will emanate all summer from the Big Smoke.

  2. Richard S.S. says:

    For the Oilers, “It’s In Lowetide We Trust”, let everyone else trust God.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    For the Oilers, “It’s In Lowetide We Trust”, let everyone else trust God.

    Lol. Thanks! This is going to be a crazy draft right after the second name imo. There are maybe six D who could be the first off the board, and after Matthews-Laine I think it will be Puljujarvi at No. 3 but that is not certain. I will have Brock Otten from OHL Prospects on tomorrow morning to talk about the draft.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    spoiler:
    I will consider any team not the Maple Leafs taking the #1 slot as a “win”.Nothing would please my ears more than hearing the gnashing of teeth that will emanate all summer from the Big Smoke.

    Any team not the Leafs, the Dys or the Flames.

    ‘uck ’em all!

    And going back to last thread. If Karlsson’s available…..if you have to ask the question…

    Ottawa has their own brand of crazy, and I’ve a feeling we’re going to find out how much Murray kept the owner in check.

    Could the mythical 3-4-1 also bring us the fable ‘Balance’ pic?

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Puljujarvi

    We should draft him just to give him the nickmane ‘Pushme-Pulju’

  6. LadiesloveSmid says:

    All I want is for the flames to not pick top 2. I could not stand that

  7. spoiler says:

    Jethro Tull: Any team not the Leafs, the Dys or the Flames.

    lol… that seems like a lot of pressure on Santa!

  8. spoiler says:

    Jethro Tull: Any team not the Leafs, the Dys or the Flames.

    If the Dys win the draft lottery, you just know they’ll raise a banner on opening night.

  9. John Chambers says:

    Where’s DSF? A few years ago we bet on Minnesota playing 60 home playoff games in the decade after signing Parise and Suter. Four years in and they’ve played 14.

    The Central division is like the Smythe in the 80’s.

  10. square_wheels says:

    John Chambers,

    Please don’t speak his name, he’s like Candyman and Voldemort combined.

    Minnesota is what happens when you tween for a decade and draft middling……and can only sign Minn state natives.

  11. speeds says:

    spoiler,

    FWIW, the Leafs picking 1st would guarantee the Oilers a 2-4OV pick, and increase the chances a fair bit that they pick 2OV or 3OV.

  12. square_wheels says:

    Wait a second, was that Minn goal called no-goal ?????

    It was clearly behind the line. Simple.

    Fuck the NHL. Seriously, what a joke.

  13. Jethro Tull says:

    spoiler: If the Dys win the draft lottery, you just know they’ll raise a banner on opening night.

    Representin’ all the Dynasties all around da world;

    Raise a banner to the rafters, girl!

  14. zatch says:

    square_wheels,

    Surely you jest.

  15. square_wheels says:

    zatch,

    Me, pfffft. Never.

  16. spoiler says:

    speeds:
    spoiler,

    FWIW, the Leafs picking 1st would guarantee the Oilers a 2-4OV pick, and increase the chances a fair bit that they pick 2OV or 3OV.

    My default position at the moment Is that the Oil will be trading the pick. And then I try to convince myself otherwise.

    In case any scouts and GMs are listening, this is really a battle of five justifiably #1 picks, so 2 through 5 are all worth the same as a #1. Please set up your trades accordingly. 😉

  17. dustrock says:

    Anyone want to wager Puljujarvi falls to about 10?

  18. square_wheels says:

    dustrock,

    I’d take that in a heartbeat.

  19. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    Anyone want to wager Puljujarvi falls to about 10?

    I don’t bet, but if I did…..

  20. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    …….It would be a bottle of fine whiskey ?

    Confused ?

    No way Jesse falls below 6, none.

  21. Rondo says:

    Grant McCagg
    ‏@grantmccagg Grant McCagg Retweeted A. Fearon
    I’ve had Juolevi ahead since the U-20’s…Bean has also been ahead the past month for me. Chychrun may not go top 12Grant McCagg added,

    A. Fearon @AGFearon
    @grantmccagg Chychrun had a rough tournament, does Juolevi and Sergachyov officially pass him now? Maybe even Bean/Fabbro?

  22. square_wheels says:

    Lordy is Ekblad already a beast.

    What’s this kid going to be like at 24 with 500 games under his belt ?

    Thank the Gords he’s a Canadian.

  23. barry.moore23 says:

    FLA/NYI oh my !! Please, please Oilers make playoffs soon. ??

  24. Rondo says:

    dustrock,

    Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman
    When I saw Finland w/o Puljujarvi they were a very good team but not elite. Since he’s come over they look elite. A difference maker.

  25. square_wheels says:

    barry.moore23,

    Hang on for an OT period where the only way someone scores is when the ref’s call a bullshit broken stick slash.

  26. G Money says:

    *** Square_Wheels DM’d me a question about Ricki and his obsession with HDSCA, and I sent him this reply, but thought it might be of interest to others ***

    Ricki takes one stat and makes it the holy grail. Before HDSCA, he used to use EVGA, which is literally an embarrassing stat to use for measuring defensemen.

    HDSCA certainly gives you good info about one aspect of the game, but (like any metric), can backfire, and must always be interpreted/adjusted for context.

    As you know, I prefer DangerFen, which incorporates and heavily weights HDSCA, but also counts all events with appropriate weightings. So a defender who boxes out the danger zone but gives up regular scoring chances by the bushel won’t be rated as highly as one who shuts down both (while using HDSCA would treat them as the same).

    One of my summer adds to my metric pile is ‘tire fire’, where I count the number and duration of periods of being trapped in the zone by looking at significant sequences of events close together all in either the d or the o zone. It won’t be complete (it’s possible for a team to rag the puck for a while without having a hit, shot, or other event recorded, so it will miss a lot), but based on a quick trial look at a few games it does capture a lot of tire fires, both for and against.

    Will be interesting to see if it correlates well with other measures.

    [addendum: and whether defenders have reasonably differentiated tire fire ratings]

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    When the Oilers win the Austin Matthews Pick, the NHL Universe will scream. Let them, it’s the only thing the Oilers do well. The offers Chiarelli gets will be amazing, HE WILL JUDGE and take the most suitable offer.

    If bad luck ensues, the Oilers will win the Patrik Laine Pick, and the NHL will still complain, bit it will be done in silence. This pick should be in demand. “plug-and-play draft picks are always in demand. The Oilers need this guy, but the need top Defenders more. Chiarelli will do what’s best for the Team.

    Any other pick means the Oilers got robbed. They should however challenge for the Postseason. Keep or trade the pick, Chiarelli will do what’s best for the Team.

  28. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Put me down as one guy that doesn’t understand the Bean love. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t see him as top 10 good.

  29. MrEd says:

    Jesse Puljujarvi with 3 goals in a 6-1 Fin win.

  30. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock:
    Anyone want to wager Puljujarvi falls to about 10?

    I take it that you posted this before his hat-trick against the Swedes?

  31. pocession charge says:

    Doug McLachlan: I take it that you posted this before his hat-trick against the Swedes?

    He did. It was a bad bet before the game. Now? Impossible.

  32. square_wheels says:

    Has anyone been watching Vinyl ? Damn is the soundtrack killer, what an era for music.

    My current music obsession is which Oiler gets Diamond Mine – LT won’t disappoint.

  33. who says:

    MrEd:
    Jesse Puljujarvi with 3 goals in a 6-1 Fin win.

    Yeah but his linemate, number 18, was the Fins best player in this one.

  34. square_wheels says:

    MrEd,

    1-2-3 is locked in this draft unless Katz has a man-crush on Keith Tkachuk’s boy.

    The nice thing is 4-10 offers some dynamite draft picks. Imagine a 5-7 and a 15-20 pick.

    Chia better not have a magic eight ball making decisions, this summer is everything.

  35. Rondo says:

    square_wheels,
    If Oilers pick #4 or #5 today I think either Dubois or Juolevi

  36. kinger_OIL says:

    – This is good news: doesn’t look like Lucic is going to get bid up stupid by the Oil:

    – His agent might be a little p$ssed about not having leverage though!:

    “Milan Lucic doesn’t feel the need to test the unrestricted free agent market this summer. He knows he wants to stay with the Los Angeles Kings and believes he and the team aren’t that far apart in regards to a new contract.

    “I think (we’re) in the same area code I would say,” Lucic said. “Just a little bit more work to do to bridge the gap here and like I said, it’s something that I definitely want moving forward, which I think is definitely important and I think it’s something they want too so hopefully we can make it work out here.”

    “The sooner the better. To be honest I really don’t have much interest into hitting the open market or hearing what’s out there because in my mind this is where I want to be,” Lucic said. “Why flirt with something when you know what you want. That’s the case for me moving forward.”

    “As important as it is in my decision and where I want to be and being happy and all that type of stuff, I think them being happy and being in a place where it’s a great spot for them to grow up and go to school and stuff like that is really, really important as well,” Lucic said. “Obviously down here has so much to offer as far as all that goes. One of the best places to raise your children is here in the South Bay area, and that definitely plays into a big part of why I want to remain here as well.”

  37. voxwah says:

    Hey LT, do you have time for the Oil bringing back Purcell on a more reduced salary?

    I don’t think its a coincidence that Hall and Leon took a bit of a step back after they lost their experienced winger. He didn’t get enough credit for how much he helped that line. I think he could help this team again next year if the cost made sense.

    Your thoughts? Thanks 🙂

  38. Skeeziks says:

    I think it would be a mistake for the Oilers to plan for a pick higher on the pole than #5 overall. If we happen to win a higher slot great but \I think most of our focus has to be on the realistic side.

    Now, what does the #5 slot open up for the Oilers? Personally, I think they should draft Chychrun. He is a skater and has the capacity to play both ways as a D Man. Furthermore, it is unlikely the Oilers will have to wait 3-4 years for him to mature to the point where he can contribute at the NHL level.

    Believe he would be a very solid and valuable long term pick for the Oilers.

  39. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    voxwah,

    Seems like the step back started s while before Teddy departed.

  40. stush18 says:

    voxwah,

    I think that line was starting to hit a wall before that. Kassian was brought up and was put into that line when they started struggling I believe.

    I think drais endurance isn’t quite good enough for a full season. He was really starting to labour towards the end

  41. Lowetide says:

    voxwah:
    Hey LT, do you have time for the Oil bringing back Purcell on a more reduced salary?

    I don’t think its a coincidence that Hall and Leon took a bit of a step back after they lost their experienced winger. He didn’t get enough credit for how much he helped that line. I think he could help this team again next year if the cost made sense.

    Your thoughts? Thanks :)

    I do like Purcell, suspect Chiarelli will bring in a faster veteran, more ruggedness.

  42. Wolfie says:

    I’m stoked to watch Vinyl!!! Saw the trailers and was hooked. John Tavares with off the charts eye glow/60 on that OT effort!

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – This is good news: doesn’t look like Lucic is going to get bid up stupid by the Oil:

    – His agent might be a little p$ssed about not having leverage though!:

    “Milan Lucic doesn’t feel the need to test the unrestricted free agent market this summer. He knows he wants to stay with the Los Angeles Kings and believes he and the team aren’t that far apart in regards to a new contract.

    “I think (we’re) in the same area code I would say,” Lucic said. “Just a little bit more work to do to bridge the gap here and like I said, it’s something that I definitely want moving forward, which I think is definitely important and I think it’s something they want too so hopefully we can make it work out here.”

    “The sooner the better. To be honest I really don’t have much interest into hitting the open market or hearing what’s out there because in my mind this is where I want to be,” Lucic said. “Why flirt with something when you know what you want. That’s the case for me moving forward.”

    “As important as it is in my decision and where I want to be and being happy and all that type of stuff, I think them being happy and being in a place where it’s a great spot for them to grow up and go to school and stuff like that is really, really important as well,” Lucic said. “Obviously down here has so much to offer as far as all that goes. One of the best places to raise your children is here in the South Bay area, and that definitely plays into a big part of why I want to remain here as well.”

    Best news I’ve heard all day. Just remove the temptation.

  44. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    One of my summer adds to my metric pile is ‘tire fire’, where I count the number and duration of periods of being trapped in the zone by looking at significant sequences of events close together all in either the d or the o zone. It won’t be complete (it’s possible for a team to rag the puck for a while without having a hit, shot, or other event recorded, so it will miss a lot), but based on a quick trial look at a few games it does capture a lot of tire fires, both for and against.

    Will be interesting to see if it correlates well with other measures.

    [addendum: and whether defenders have reasonably differentiated tire fire ratings]

    If you could measure that using scraping data, that would be awesome. I was thinking of tracking it manually next year by counting number of zone entries leading to 2+ shots on net. Your way would be more all-encompassing, including tire-fires that are broken up with a small uncontrolled zone exit. (Also, then I wouldn’t have to track it!)

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