SKY BLUE

The great thing about the Oilers is there is danger at ever turn. You simply cannot be absolutely certain of a good outcome, because there is no track record of quality decisions followed immediately by quality decisions. Please understand, I am onside with Peter Chiarelli as Oilers GM, but his first twelve months included good (Talbot, Sekera) and bad (Korpikoski) and questionable (Reinhart). So, when we discuss the summer and possible blue line additions, it is all well and good to talk about the great options available, but we also have to be cognizant of less inspired outcomes.

With Chicago out of the playoffs, you are likely to get overwhelmed today and tomorrow (I am writing this at 10:30 Monday night) with trade ideas involving the Oilers and Chicago. I can think of great trades (Shaw) and poor ones (Seabrook’s new deal will kill careers) and you can decide which are more likely. Let’s look at the Chicago defense.

He is locked and loaded in Chicago for the next several years unless Seabrook decides it has been too long at the fair. The War on Ice player chart above has lots of blue bubbles, but Seabrook doesn’t have a lot of them. If you look at his WOWY comps, Seabrook comes out on the bad end with basically every partner—they all dive with him. Incredible. Only Rob Scuderi comes out worse.

  • Good Chicago targets: Andrew Shaw, Tuesday Thursday, Erik Gustafsson (don’t even), Ville Pokka, Mark McNeill

OILERS CURRENT ROSTER

oilers cap april 26

That is what I have remaining from today’s posts, apologies. I am having major issues with WordPress and hope to have a fix in the next few days. If you see a twirling circle instead of the feature photo, that is the issue and WordPress is working on a fix. Hang in there, please.

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27 Responses to "SKY BLUE"

  1. Colieo87 says:

    First post

  2. Lowetide says:

    Bah! What a freaky evening. I feel like I am stuck in the Ramatam album.

  3. dustrock says:

    Ah we’re back. Thought somehow my home cookies or something were mixed up because I was 2 blogs behind.

    Also Ethan Bear scored again.

  4. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    Ah we’re back. Thought somehow my home cookies or something were mixed up because I was 2 blogs behind.

    Also Ethan Bear scored again.

    Bear is impressive. Really impressive.

  5. frjohnk says:

    McKenzie will have his top 15 prospects out tomorrow.

    First 6 are forwards and sounds like the scouts are all over the map on who the best D man is this year.

  6. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Argh, just when I finally worked myself into a winning position in a debate with G Money the entire comments section implodes!

  7. Rondo says:

    frjohnk,
    My guess

    4.Matthew Tkachuk
    5. Pierre-Luc Dubois
    6 Alexander Nylander
    7.Olli Juolevi
    8.Keller
    9. Sergachev
    10. Logan Brown

  8. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    McKenzie will have histop 15 prospects out tomorrow.

    First 6 are forwards and sounds like the scouts are all over the map on who the best D man is this year.

    It is an insane year for D. I asked Otten and he had Chychrun No. 1 among blue in the OHL. Kournianos is the same. RLR has Bean I believe. I have Sergachev, but am stone alone. Could be Juolevi. Oy.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Argh, just when I finally worked myself into a winning position in a debate with G Money the entire comments section implodes!

    Yeah, had to clean all that good verbal on Seabrook out. 🙂 Sorry again, folks. I love the comments section, sometimes my wife accuses me of being lost in 2010 (when I am reading comments from a post from those days).

  10. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    LT,

    I was thinking about Russian hockey players specifically Tarasenko. He is not playing much in the playoffs probably because he does not play 2 way hockey. Most Russian forwards don’t play 2 way hockey. How many #1 D in the NHL have been Russians? I can think of 1 Fetisov.

    I wouldn’t draft Sergachev in the top 5. I think Oilers would take Juolevi at #5

  11. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Argh, just when I finally worked myself into a winning position in a debate with G Money the entire comments section implodes!

    Yeah, I was about to go after Speeds and his draft fixation.
    One of these days, I swear.
    Snicker.

  12. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    a. Wait, what!? WHY WAS I NOT INFORMED!?!?

    b. Well of course it did, the Universe has rules to follow ya know!!

  13. Rondo says:

    Chychrun scored 3 goals in 62 games 5 on 5.

  14. Mr DeBakey says:

    Rondo: Chychrun scored 3 goals in 62 games 5 on 5.

    That is NOT a good number.

  15. Mr DeBakey says:

    Other WordPress sites are also experiencing technical difficulties it seems.

    Have heart! This too shall pass.

  16. Mustard Tiger says:

    I posted about this earlier, and it dissapeared with everything else!

    However, I was able to answer my own question.

    Oilers draft position odds:
    1: 13.5%
    2: 13.1%
    3: 12.5%
    4: 35.2%
    5: 25.8%

    Too bad, 60% chance we’re picking 4-5

    This is the picture that has the odds for every team

    http://assets1.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Screen-Shot-2016-04-18-at-4.38.52-PM.png

  17. speeds says:

    Mr DeBakey: Yeah, I was about to go after Speeds and his draft fixation.
    One of these days, I swear.
    Snicker.

    Ha, I will look forward to seeing the case made that I’m mistaken 😉

  18. Wolfie says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    LT,

    I was thinking about Russian hockey players specificallyTarasenko.He is not playing much in the playoffs probably because he does not play 2 way hockey.Most Russian forwardsdon’t play2 way hockey.How many #1 D in the NHLhave beenRussians? I can think of 1 Fetisov.

    I wouldn’t draftSergachev in the top 5.

    Zubov says hello. So does Konstantinov. Admittedly there aren’t many but then again there haven’t been that many Russians that have come over. We remember the great battles between the USSR and Canada for hockey supremacy.

    The truth is Russia only has like 28 or so covered rinks in the entire country!!!! There are that many in the city of Winnipeg…

    That says something about the old Russian ways. Take the cream of the crop and drill them repeatedly. There was a reason the Soviets were so in synch. It was like they had esp on the ice. The KLM line was sublime and deadly. Probably the deadliest trio in history. Gretzky-Kurri-Flavour of the week, was a very close 2nd.

    It took Gretzky-Lemieux-Hawerchuk everything and then some to win the Canada Cup… Maybe it’s not close if 99-66-10 played together everyday since they could skate….

    Anyways, the point Im trying to make is you can’t judge a Russian born defenceman based on where he’s from. You can’t ignore math and scouting. It’s like the Oilers penchant for drafting size over skill….

    Get good players or some such thing.

  19. Seismic Source says:

    If we fall out of the top three, if ever there was a year to trade down, or trade out this is it. Trade down and take a D. Trade out and get a D. Please.

  20. AsiaOil says:

    Lowetide: I have Sergachev, but am stone alone.

    No I think he’s a beast as well. Top goal scoring defenseman in the OHL as a 17 year old foreign rookie who came on like gangbusters at the end of the year. Big, great slap and wrist shots, passing, speed – kid pretty much has it all. He is so much more dynamic that Chychrun who looks like a plodder in comparison. I’d say he’s below Ekblad but above Hanifin in terms of quality in recent drafts – numbers line up almost perfectly with Seth Jones. He’s be a quality pick from 4-7.

  21. monsterbater says:

    It’s my fault for trying to save reading the comments after 3 pm until the next morning while i am at work. My employer probably shut it down, jerks!!!

  22. Acumen says:

    Wolfie,

    It’s difficult to lend much thought to it considering what a dominant run they had, but the Red Wings really have had some awful luck with incredible careers being cut short. The tragedy of Konstantinov and Fetisov, and then the early career derailments of Jiri Fischer and Igor Grigorenko, both of whom looked to have bonafide top line futures.

    Considering what already was, it’s scary to think what may have been.

  23. russ99 says:

    I’m not sure what Shaw really gives us that we don’t already have.

    Plus Blackhawks players have an alarming history of falling off once traded away.

  24. The Oilers and Blackhawks As Trade Partners - The Oilers Rig says:

    […] 31, the defender has a lot of mileage on him and isn’t as effective as he once was. Lowetide did an excellent job on Monday morning of dissecting the situation and I suggest you read what he […]

  25. monsterbater says:

    WARRIOR charts are one of my favorite tools for quickly comparing defenders and determining whether it is worth drill down on players (for good or bad reasons). One of the things i like to look at is impact on GF/60 and GA/60 to see if they are a balanced Dman or are stronger at goal generation or goal suppression.

    I wonder, and this is a question for those smarter than me, Does it make sense to have complimentary players be paired together, or match like abilities with like abilities. I tend to favor the former. This leads to my comparison of Klefbom and Demers. Klefbom is a middle of the road top 2 in GF/60, but middle of the road top 4 in GA/60. Demers is the inverse and is a middle of the road top 4 in GF/60, but middle of the road top 2 in GA/60.

    Seems like a good potential top pairing, especially if klefbom can stay healthy

  26. G Money says:

    monsterbater: Does it make sense to have complimentary players be paired together, or match like abilities with like abilities.

    Horses for courses and chemistry matters, I’d say, which means that whether your pairs are complementary or matched depends on both the game state as well as the individuals involved.

    As a general rule, since do-everything defenders are exceedingly rare, I think most folks subscribe to the idea of complementary skills – offense-oriented with defense-oriented, shifty with physical, and of course, lefty with righty.

    The left-right stuff has been advocated by WG for a while now, but has only recently been studied and confirmed, first on a smaller scale by our own WheatNOil (using NerdAlert data extracts, athankyouverymuch), and then on a larger scale by the guys at HockeyGraphs.

    I’m quite certain the idea of complementing defenders via the other concepts is an actual thing, but not sure it’s actually been studied for efficacy.

    For all we know, it may make perfect sense, and be completely wrong! There are many myths in hockey, as there are in many human endeavours. (One of my favourite quotes on the topic is http://www.picturequotes.com/history-is-strewn-with-ideas-that-were-intuitive-and-made-sense-at-the-time-but-were-also-quote-242406).

    So the next step would be for someone to actually put the idea to the test and provide evidence that it works the way we think it works.

  27. monsterbater says:

    G Money,

    Thanks G, and agree. Though i am not skilled enough to be the person to do it. I honestly wouldn’t know where to start. This is why i appreciate the work you and others on this site (other sites too) so much.

    Cheers

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