ALL THOSE BALLS IN THE AIR

In all the excitement of this year’s lottery, it is important to remember the Edmonton Oilers already won. Whatever happens Saturday, last April was the day the earth stood still. That isn’t bragging (zero to do with me, or you) it is a simple statement of fact. Here are some memories from just before the lottery and then after (on this blog):

  • 8:30amLight a candle. Send a message heavenward to the God who’ll listen, find some instant karma and think good thoughts. People will tell you the Edmonton Oilers don’t deserve McDavid, I say diddly squat. Edmonton Oilers fans have earned the right to have two lottery picks and win the day, and perhaps the hockey Gods have been beating fans senseless these years in order for us to earn our reward. Source
  • 8:40am—Bohologo: Stan Weir be with us!
  • 8:48am—FlyFish1168: May the Draft Lottery Force be with us.
  • 9:10am—Colie087: please hockey Gods i pray. i dress in oiler colors every day. 3 1st overall picks come out to play. #4 + # 93 should lead us into temptation. but as i stand here today nine years no post station. so please with your help sweet 1 pick in McDavid sensation.
  • 11:24am—Younger Oil: I just have a sinking feeling that Toronto is going to get McDavid. I’d honestly be fine with any eligible team getting him as long as it’s not Toronto.
  • 3:51pm—Marna10: Calling it here. LT gets his 3 for 1 unicorn tonight. 3rd pick elevated to 1st.
  • 5:17pm—Ben: I heard that Bob Green is carrying a vial containing a few beads of Steve Tambellini’s forehead sweat.
  • 6:04pm—Eastern Oil: I’m not sure what to do with my hands… Up? To the side? Double gun and wink?
  • 6:05pm—Kitchener: Reason for delay: Bettman’s hitting the “try again” button until TO comes up.
  • 6:09pm—Skidplate: Let’s go OIlers let’s go. CLAP CLAP
  • 6:14pm—Skidplate: HOLY SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • 6:14pm—Scott Ladouche: OMFG!
  • 6:14pm—Jake 70: ahahahahahaahahahahahahahaahahahahahaha
  • 6:14pm—Frank the Dog: BLOOD HAIL!!!!!
  • 6:14pm—Van Oil: Holy shiy!
  • 6:14pm—Tarkus: I AM GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER BEER AND I AM GOING TO HAVE ANOTHERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!
  • 6:14pm—Marna10: Finally a three-for-one!
  • 6:14pm—There’s Oil in Virginia: HOLY WOW! and HOLY COW too!

I had written a mock draft with Noah Hanifin going to the Oilers, so quickly put this up, before tweaking the mock and then publishing it. There were over 1,000 comments that day on this blog, it was beyond sweet music. We shared that moment together, and I will remember it forever. I have read the comments in all three of those threads several times over the last 12 months. Thanks for making those pages so memorable. Beautiful.

Peter Chiarelli will have his eye of newt, toe of frog and Tambi sweat, Bill Scott’s cufflinks and God knows what else. I am a very superstitious person, so will prepare a Mock Draft with Edmonton at No. 2 overall. It is ridiculous not to prepare for the alternative, but I will do everything exactly as I remember a year ago. Thank goodness I didn’t have salad that day.

His EP bio doesn’t say much and his NHLE (23 points) doesn’t imply he is a better bet than our man Paigin. He is LHD, 25, Dreger mentioned him earlier this spring. Apparently Colorado is in the mix.

A subtle change in the weather here, meaning fewer AHL veterans will also have an NHL component to their deal. Make no mistake, this is a good thing for the Oilers—Hamilton is a mentor to the youths, an effective player at that level, and he may have been able to secure an NHL deal elsewhere. There was no doubt some sacrifice for the player—there is no direct connection to an NHL team for him, the first time since the spring of 2006. He played in 30 NHL games, 18 as an Edmonton Oilers forward.

What does this mean for the organization? Another spot on the 50-man list. Here is what the AHL portion of the Oilers 50-man list looked like when Peter Chiarelli took over:

  1. G Laurent Brossoit (AHL starter and plenty of opportunity to move up)
  2. G Tyler Bunz (RFA) (I don’t think he gets a renewal, .890 in ECHL not good enough)
  3. G Frans Tuohimaa (RFA) (.876 in the ECHL is even worse than not good enough)
  4. D Keith Aulie (RFA) (May get another two-way contract)
  5. D Brad Hunt (RFA) (May get another two-way contract)
  6. D Jordan Oesterle (I think they like him a lot, the speed is going to get him NHL looks)
  7. D Brandon Davidson (RFA) (prediction: signed to a two-way deal, generous AHL portion)
  8. D Dillon Simpson (His progress in season two pro should be fun to watch)
  9. D Martin Gernat (One hopes he follows the conditioning program closely this summer)
  10. D David Musil (Chiarelli employed Adam McQuaid. Musil will be fine)
  11. C Bogdan Yakimov (Shoulder aside, strong season)
  12. C Jujhar Khaira (Solid checker, offense may keep him from NHL career)
  13. C Travis Ewanyk (Not enough offense, we knew it draft day)
  14. C Kellen Lain (RFA) (A big body,long shot get a contract)
  15. L Matt Fraser (RFA) (prediction: signed to a two-way deal)
  16. L Ryan Hamilton (he’ll be the veteran hand in the  minors helping to guide the kids)
  17. L Curtis Hamilton (RFA) (Very uncertain future)
  18. L Mitch Moroz (I think Chiarelli might like him)
  19. L Kale Kessy (If he can play, Kessy may have a future)
  20. R Iiro Pakarinen (I think he is going to make the team and have an impact)
  21. R Tyler Pitlick (RFA) (prediction: signed to a reasonable one-way deal)
  22. R Andrew Miller (RFA) (prediction: signed to a two-way deal, generous AHL portion)

There were 10 RFAs listed there, plus (in the original article) some decisions to be made in regard to players who would end up in the AHL (Anton Slepyshev, Daniil Zharkov, John McCarron, Marco Roy, Jackson Houck).

sallinen capture2

CURRENT 50-MAN (35)

  1. G Cam Talbot. No. 1 next season.
  2. G Laurent Brossoit. Projects as NHL backup/AHL starter, signed a two-year deal.
  3. G Nick Ellis: Newly signed college free agent.
  4. G Eetu Laurikainen, AHL backup, he is signed for next year.
  5. D Oscar Klefbom, likely top pairing, needs to stay healthy.
  6. D Andrej Sekera, top 4D, important part of the team.
  7. D Brandon Davidson, top 6D, maybe even top 4D if he continues on current track.
  8. D Mark Fayne, I question Oilers ability to find three better RH this summer.
  9. D Darnell Nurse, probably top 6D next season, ideally in Bakersfield.
  10. D Griffin Reinhart, may spend another year in the minors. Could be dealt.
  11. D Andrew Ference, they will buy him out (if able). LTIR is my guess.
  12. D Joey Laleggia, AHL D matriculating.
  13. D Dillon Simpson, AHL D, matriculating.
  14. D Ben Betker, AHL D, matriculating.
  15. D Caleb Jones, WHL D. Newly signed, definite slide rule.
  16. C Connor McDavid, Giant.
  17. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, quality NHL center.
  18. C Leon Draisaitl, emerging NHL talent.
  19. C Mark Letestu, checking NHL C.
  20. C Anton Lander, they may find a buyer.
  21. C Jujhar Khaira, he is a good bet to make the roster in the fall.
  22. C Bogdan Yakimov, a chance he comes back. Has NHL tools, speed concern.
  23. C Kyle Platzer, AHL C matriculating.
  24. L Taylor Hall, impact NHL player. Many fans want him gone.
  25. L Benoit Pouliot, underrated by many. Trade rumors.
  26. L Patrick Maroon, big winger has been exceptional since arrival.
  27. L Lauri Korpikoski, Oilers should try to offload him this summer.
  28. L Matt Hendricks, checking NHL W.
  29. L Jere Sallinen, you can never have too many Finns.
  30. L Mitch Moroz, AHL winger/enforcer, matriculating.
  31. L Braden Christoffer, rugged winger, matriculating.
  32. R Jordan Eberle, scoring winger could be in play.
  33. R Nail Yakupov, gone baby, gone.
  34. R Anton Slepyshev, talented winger should push for NHL time.
  35. R Greg Chase, minor league winger, matriculating.

pitlick 1415 fergusonPitlick photo by Rob Ferguson

Men who Edmonton has to make a decision on:

  • R Iiro Pakarinen, suspect he will push for a spot next fall. RFA
  • R Zack Kassian, probably part of the future in a top 9F role. RFA.
  • D Jordan Oesterle. Suspect he signs. RFA.
  • D Adam Clendening. Foot speed will cost him. RFA.
  • D David Musil. Three straight solid seasons in the AHL. RFA.
  • R Adam Cracknell. I have no idea if he will be back. UFA.
  • R Rob Klinkhammer. No feeling either way. UFA.
  • D Adam Pardy. He played well, doubt there is room. UFA.
  • D Eric Gryba, UFA. A chance he signs. UFA.
  • D Nikita Nikitin, UFA. Ufa alright.
  • D Brad Hunt. Skills are duplicated elsewhere. UFA.
  • L Josh Winquist. Best offensive prospect in the AHL currently—but does not have an NHL deal.
  • R Josh Currie At 23, he forced his way into the lineup and played very well. Can also play center.
  • C Marco Roy. Began slowly, but fought his way up the depth chart and emerged as a solid option.
  • R Tyler Pitlick. Young veteran is RFA again. If he could only stay healthy.
  • G Niklas Lundstrom Lundstrom is probably the easiest call among this year’s free agents. RFA.
  • L Kale Kessy. Rugged winger, skills duplicated on roster. RFA.
  • R Andrew Miller. He may have traded himself. No chance he returns imo. UFA.
  • L Ryan Hamilton. May receive another deal from the Oilers.
  • I wrote about this here.

DUCKS ELIMINATED, IS VATANEN AN OILER YET?

The feeding frenzy around the Oilers in terms of trade rumors (I will have Lyle Richardson on today) has reached top dead center and things are humming baby. A trade built around Jordan Eberle for Sami Vatanen has been in the ether for weeks but not that the Ducks have disappointed there may be some completion on the way. I have said since Peter Chiarelli’s media avail—where he said waiting until the draft was not necessary if something made sense—we might see a mid-playoffs trade involving the orange and blue. Suspect whatever takes place will happen after the lottery on Saturday, but ‘Ducks-Oil deal imminent!?!???!’ will be your click bait today.

changedpriorities

RAINING IN MY HEART

If you are tired of ‘reaction’ coverage to silly stories from media in other cities, or general click bait tomfoolery, let the people writing it know it. Important to offer input to all blogs and publications, encourage you to do so. Let’s aim higher, blogs! Thanks.

THE MCKENZIE LIST

I spoke to Jonathan Willis and Scott Cullen yesterday about the value of the McKenzie list to NHL teams. It also has value for us, because it can answer questions. For instance: This year’s defense. Now, I think we can agree that predicting the No. 1 defenseman at the draft is miles different than predicting who will eventually become the best defenseman in the selection for 2016. That said, I had some real questions and my list is based (mostly) on math. Here are the D in my top 15:

 

  • No. 6 LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL).
  • No. 7 LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL).
  • No. 9 LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL).
  • No. 10 RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL).
  • No. 12 RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA).
  • No. 13 LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL).

My list rewards range of skills, offense and I have a definite bias for CHL players. I also tend to prefer forwards over defensemen. Now, as I mentioned, the defensemen listed here are (mostly) the same offensively. Sergachev is No. 1 on my list because the offensive spark is dominant (Juolevi too) whereas I think Chychrun has more of his value on the defensive side. Doesn’t mean he won’t score a bunch of goals on an NHL power play, but we are talking about a (potential) top 5 overall selection—you need offense from that player. Here is how the McKenzie list values them (this is important stuff):

  • No. 7 LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL).
  • No. 8 LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL).
  • No. 9 LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL).
  • No. 12 LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL).
  • No. 14 RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA).

What does that tell us? Well, scouts love Joulevi’s offense. The math says these cats are all basically the same, but Joulevi somehow comes out on top. I rank Sergachev No. 1 because there is a slight edge offensively using the Roatis NHLE:

  1. Mikhail Sergachev 22.32
  2. Jake Bean 20.84
  3. Jakob Chychrun 20.74
  4. Charlie McAvoy 20.5
  5. Olli Joulevi: 19.33

I am completely onside with these five men being in the same range—we cannot be so in love with math as to allow small gaps like these to sway us—but I do find the idea that Joulevi is considered superior to the other defenders curious. In watching Joulevi, I felt his defense would be kind of a drag on his overall number. Does not appear to be the case. We will have to dig deeper into this as the weeks fly by.

blunt wild target

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun day even if they don’t trade for Vatanen. TSN1260, beginning at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Lyle Richardson, Spector’s Hockey. Trade rumors are coming from everywhere but the basement bloggers. Are they credible? How times have changed.
  • Scott Zerr, Oilers Nation and TSN1260. Ryan Hamilton’s signing to an AHL contract is the first sign of stirring for next season in Bakersfield. Scott and I will discuss the possible roster.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. NFL draft day! Round 1! Rams and Eagles pick the QBs and then the real fun begins.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The carnage continues, as NHL giants continue to fall. Hawks, Kings and now the Ducks. Who is left?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

70 Responses to "ALL THOSE BALLS IN THE AIR"

  1. Woodguy says:

    **SPAM**

    New Because Oilers:

    Oiler Right Shot Dman search #1 – Jason Demers

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/04/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-1-jason.html

    **END SPAM**

  2. Aitch says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but this year’s draft is an hour earlier than last year. It would appear that the NHL is superstitious too. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have messed with the date and time of the draft. Whatever they can to help ensure the Oilers don’t go 5-for-7 again to accomplish the reverse Oilers dynasty.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Aitch:
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but this year’s draft is an hour earlier than last year. It would appear that the NHL is superstitious too. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have messed with the date and time of the draft. Whatever they can to help ensure the Oilers don’t go 5-for-7 again to accomplish the reverse Oilers dynasty.

    I think the NHL runs things straight up, which makes them both noble and batshit crazy. Bring on the hilarity!

  4. Rondo says:

    Juolevi vs Sergachev Shane Malloy chimes in.

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1040-i-1410/malloy-not-a-reach-to-take-juolevi-or-sergachev-in-4th-or-5th-spot-1.478320

    “Shane Malloy says Olli Juolevi is more of a point producer, while Mikhail Sergachev compares to a Mattias Ohlund type, a player that will give you a very solid career with some upside. “

  5. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Juolevi vs Sergachev Shane Malloy chimes in.

    http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-1040-i-1410/malloy-not-a-reach-to-take-juolevi-or-sergachev-in-4th-or-5th-spot-1.478320

    “Shane Malloy says Olli Juolevi is more of a point producer, while Mikhail Sergachev compares to a Mattias Ohlund type, a player that will give you a very solid career with some upside. ”

    Except the evidence does not say it. I know we don’t have TOI, but Juolevi is playing for the team that skews results. I don’t buy the argument.

  6. Aitch says:

    Lowetide: I think the NHL runs things straight up, which makes them both noble and batshit crazy. Bring on the hilarity!

    Oh, I have no doubt it’s on the up-and-up. Just poking fun at the superstitious nature of such things. Personally, I’ll be doing the same thing I did last year… playing hockey with a whole lot of Leafs fans while wearing an Oilers jersey (McDavid this year) and teasing the bunch of them about the inevitable lottery win. I laughed so hard at them last year. So hard.

  7. Aitch says:

    I’m weary of both Tkachuk and Juolevi simply because they play for the Knights. Maybe, I’m gun shy because of Schremp and Gagner but there’s a history of players on that team looking better in junior than they are simply because Hunter and Co. will ride their top end players so heavily. It’s easy to play on an All-Star team.

  8. Younger Oil says:

    Something like Eberle and Reinhart for Vatanen and Silfverberg could be a solid trade.

    Or Eberle for Silfverberg and Manson.

    I also wouldn’t be opposed to a deal involving Hall and something to Nashville for Wilson and one of their top 4 D.

  9. Skeeziks says:

    As I have stated before, there would be some marvellous symmetry if the Oilers, who won the Stanley Cup 5 out the first seven years in their NHL existence, were able to win the #1 Overall pick 5 years out of 7 at the end of their tenure in the old barn (Northlands/Rexall).

    Besides, it would drive other teams and their fan bases absolutely crazy. Saturday will be fun no matter how things turn out.

  10. TemujinBC says:

    Ha! Love those comments from a year ago. Hilarious.

    I remember being in passenger seat of my truck, checking twitter when I saw the news

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/04/18/we-hoped-for-the-best-and-oh-my-god/#comment-402349

    That was a really really fun ride home, after that.

  11. Caramel Batman says:

    Younger Oil:
    Something like Eberle and Reinhart for Vatanen and Silfverberg could be a solid trade.

    Or Eberle for Silfverberg and Manson.

    I also wouldn’t be opposed to a deal involving Hall and something to Nashville for Wilson and one of their top 4 D.

    Those are lopsided in Edmonton’s favour.

    Anaheim dominated last night. They looked fantastic. High save percentage hockey means the best team doesn’t win as often as not. It’s a shame because it means we’ve lost some great matchups down the road.

    There sure seems to be a lot of smoke around Subban. New media guy from Montreal on the radio every other day and they all say the same thing. Everybody is a little down on him. I think he can be had.

    RNH and Nurse for Subban + prospect. That’s a great deal for the Oilers. I’d do Hall instead of RNH if they pushed me, though I’d rather just add on to this deal if it would work. It sounds like Montreal wants to do the 3 for 1.

    Vatanen looked good to me, though I thought the idea was Pouliot for Vatanen. That would be great. Though if the Subban trade were to actually happen then I’d aim for Hamonic or Demers as my second D of the offseason. \

    Any way you cut it I think there are underrated D available this offseason. Chiarelli just needs to pick the right ones at the right price.

  12. Klima's_Bucket says:

    LT,
    The funny thing about ‘reaction coverage’ and general click bait tomfoolery is the fact that many writers starting out in hopes of making a few bucks need page views and clicks to generate ad money. Hopefully barking at the writers on those sites works it’s way up the food chain to those that run those actual sites.
    As you said, “Let’s aim higher.”
    Personally, I don’t read click bait tomfoolery.
    I prefer Lowetide.ca
    Always have, always will.
    Cheers!

  13. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Caramel Batman: I also wouldn’t be opposed to a deal involving Hall and something to Nashville for Wilson and one of their top 4 D.

    Those are lopsided in Edmonton’s favour.

    Hall for somebody’s “top four D” doesn’t strike me as being lopsided in Edmonton’s favour.

  14. zatch says:

    DND finally upgraded IE! Now I can read LT at work now! Huzzah!

    Caramel Batman:

    RNH and Nurse for Subban + prospect.That’s a great deal for the Oilers.I’d do Hall instead of RNH if they pushed me, though I’d rather just add on to this deal if it would work.It sounds like Montreal wants to do the 3 for 1.

    It’d have to be a B prospect I think. Nuge didn’t this season/never did impress much outside of Edmonton, rightly or wrongly. Nurse is still a prospect in many ways, albeit a great one.

  15. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Seems odd given the NHLE results. Perhaps you should have him as a guest.

    I know Corey Pronman does not have Sergachev in his top 10.

    If the Oilers do pick A D-man I want them to pick the best one whoever that is.

  16. slopitch says:

    Here are the IPP of the D in the Mackenzie top 15:

    Player Rank GP G A PTS IPP League
    Olli Juolevi 7 57 9 33 42 15.71 OHL
    Mikhail Sergachev 8 67 17 40 57 22.96 OHL
    Jakob Chychrun 9 62 11 38 49 21.33 OHL
    Jake Bean 12 68 24 40 64 27.89 WHL
    Charles McAvoy 14 37 3 22 25 19.23 H-EAST

    Id be thrilled if the Oilers got 1-3 overall. If the Oilers end up 4th, I’d be happy if they traded down and drafted Logan Brown (assuming of course they could pickup a decent dman). A 6″6 center would compliment the Oilers current group nicely in a couple years and would allow them to pickup a dman and a good prospect. A move like that and they could focus on finding the top dman and filling out the rest of the roster with depth (for once).

    I like the idea of moving Drai to wing and trading for Martin “so hot right now” Hanzal as well (assuming Yak or Ebs is moved for a dman).

  17. LOObird says:

    Reading those comments from the lottery thread makes me absolutely giddy.

    Also the oilers did not win 5 cups in their first 7 years in the league. I don’t know why people keep saying that.

  18. Colieo87 says:

    Omg first little mention of me in your blog. My prayer was answered that day. Thanks :-P. Thanks LT.

  19. Kitchener says:

    That lotto win changed everything. Moments beforehand Edmonton had a disfunctional management group, serious coaching uncertainty, and a lingering cloud of being losers. A month or so later: Chiarelli, McLellan, a new sense of optimism, and #97.

    In gardener’s terms, that was a serious month of culling and planting. One year later, the new perennials have taken root.

    Does anyone remember MacT’s year-end presser? Hard to believe that was a year ago.

  20. misfit says:

    I’m excited at the possibility of landing the #1 again, and very happy to stay at #2 as well. But we seem to be missing the fact that we could end up picking as low as #5. That would not make me happy at all.

    So again, I pray to the Gords, please bless us with a pick in the top 3. If you see fit to gift another with the #1, then please allow us to retain our #2 spot. And if that pick should be blessed upon another as well, please bestow upon us a significant Finn as they will be embraced by our fair city more than any other. And if you see fit to allow the sons of Fennoscandia to go elsewhere…come on man!

  21. Lois Lowe says:

    I wonder if Corey Perry may be the target from Anaheim. He’s got a no-trade, no move contract and it’s for a stupid amount of money, but he fits a Chiarelli player type.

  22. godot10 says:

    Skeeziks:
    As I have stated before, there would be some marvellous symmetry if the Oilers, who won the Stanley Cup 5 out the first seven years in their NHL existence, were able to win the #1 Overall pick 5 years out of 7 at the end of their tenure in the old barn (Northlands/Rexall).

    Besides, it would drive other teams and their fan bases absolutely crazy. Saturday will be fun no matter how things turn out.

    The OIlers did NOT win the Stanley Cup in 5 of their first seven seasons in the NHL. The Oilers did NOT win the Stanley Cup in their first 4 seasons in the NHL.

  23. GCW_69 says:

    If the Oilers don’t test the water on Lindholm they aren’t doing their job. Lindholm only pops free if he wants more money than Murray is prepared to pay, but until he is under contract, the possibility needs to be explored.

    Vatanen is the back up choice.

  24. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10,

    First four years in the league don’t count.

    Just like the first four years of our rebuild. Lowe said so.

    So it still fits.

  25. dustrock says:

    LT – Juolevi is the last guy I would take from your list there.

    He plays on a stacked London Knights team and had about as many goals as Chychrun, who people are saying doesn’t deliver enough offense. He doesn’t PK.

    I think he is a good defenceman but not at #4 and he shouldn’t be the first guy picked.

  26. doritogrande says:

    A trade built around Jordan Eberle for Sami Vatanen has been in the ether for weeks

    It’s a good basis to build something around, I wonder if we can entice ANA to include Cogliano in the package if we sweeten the pot with a pick. Not only for my own personal salvation (I might be the only one in the world with a 13 Cogs jersey), but buddy has learned how to be a valuable foot soldier in California and he’s durable as hell.

    Draft talk, if we don’t wind up catching lightning in a bottle again and secure 1 or 2 (not sold on Jesse), I’d be of the opinion to trade down to 8-10 solely for the purpose of avoiding having to make the call on the “best available defense” prospect. Let somebody else swing at that curveball and even if they knock it for a double we can say we never had a shot at them.

    LT: Because I’ve asked it every year, and because Gare Joyce doesn’t get the recognition he deserves for Future Greats and Heartbreaks; how many Top-10’s?

  27. Frank the dog says:

    misfit:
    I’m excited at the possibility of landing the #1 again, and very happy to stay at #2 as well.But we seem to be missing the fact that we could end up picking as low as #5.That would not make me happy at all.

    So again, I pray to the Gords, please bless us with a pick in the top 3.If you see fit to gift another with the #1, then please allow us to retain our #2 spot.And if that pick should be blessed upon another as well, please bestow upon us a significant Finn as they will be embraced by our fair city more than any other. And if you see fit to allow the sons of Fennoscandia to go elsewhere…come on man!

    Just as the previous regime would likely have done to #97 as they did to the other #1’s, the biggest win that 97 bought us was a new management team. I think Nelson was a better coach for this team system wise, in that he coached to the players skill sets instead of making the players fit his system, and I think he will beat TMac when he gets back to the NHL. So Chia kind of threw out the baby with the bathwater there.
    For this year, I would think the statistical likelihood that would even things out like shot % in a way, would be #5. Anything better than that is beating the odds.
    But the biggest win is going from a management that couldn’t do anything with whatever they had, to one which will wheel and deal to get the best possible outcome from the hand they are dealt.
    From my perspective it the degree to which the refereeing tilts the ice that matters more than all of the above. Those people have the proven ability to determine the outcome of the game. Seriously, I feel like they are approaching the standard of the WWE. And I don’t watch that stuff either.

  28. Frank the dog says:

    My prayer is NHL coaching NHL players with referees making even handed calls and non-calls.
    I don’t think the latter happens with Bettman at the helm.
    He absolutely has to find a way to stop the Oilers from getting either of the top 2. Pushing us to #5 may be a bit obvious, so I’d think we will “randomly” end up at 3 or 4.
    Maybe Ricki can come up with a stat to support that theory.

  29. Caramel Batman says:

    Rondo:
    dustrock,

    Some scouts disagree with you

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/scouts-like-juolevi-chychrun-nhl-draft/

    Why would anyone listen to a scout? These guys don’t know more than anyone else. They don’t have some magic power to tell who is better than whom. They just make stuff up that fits with their predispositions.

    Scouting is useless.

  30. Fog of Warts says:

    Staples:

    You know the strategy that really killed the Oilers? Having an atrocious management team and structure. That was addressed last season when Bob Nicholson was named as team president and he shuffled out the Oilers old boys and put Peter Chiarelli in charge of the team. At last the franchise is again being run with a businessman at the very top and an experienced and successful general manager reporting to him.

    Willis:

    As the t-shirt says, the one consistent factor in all your failed relationships is you; the one consistent factor in all these terrible collaborations is Korpikoski.

    What does opposite-George t-shirt say?

    If you’ve had five coaches in four years (or whatever), and none of them have fixed the power play (not the “fresh eyes” salad dressing, not the “youth charmer” salad dressing, not the “doughnut-free” salad dressing, not the New and Improved “somebody else’s gold-plated old boys” salad dressing) perhaps the factor as inconsistent as all hell was the never the real problem in the first place.

    While this is by no means an apology for what MacT actually did, if we had already had CMD in the fold, by all means MacT would have set his sights higher than Niki Nikitin. She’s the one you choose when your overriding consideration is not to show up at your graduation ball riding a bicycle built for one.

    I’d never join a club that would allow a person like me to become a member.

    After five years of being stuffing into the hallway locker—consistently on the bottom layer (standard recipe: 90-lb weakling with acne, fat kid, fat kid, 90-lb weakling with adorable freckles as the sesame-seed upper bun)—any girl who appears somewhat viable quickly bursts that bubble by the revealing act of returning your phone call.

    If management hadn’t been so busy drumming up public money to build a new arena, we might have been more willing to stand pat on the last voice of establishment (untainted by a bottle of sriracha sauce Best Before 1990) who would still have us: Tom Renney—until the golden lottery ball under present discussion put us back on the menu again.

    I’ve definitely grown to appreciate Staples’ good side more than I once did, but he has some blind spots I’d place right beside MacTavish trying to score a sure thing from the barely dateables.

    One thing Staples likes to trot out are the year/year coaching comparisons, over very short and troubled tenures, soon curtailed.

    How would our present management team smell had they endured the Dubnyk melt-down and not benefited from the combined giant-killer Drai + Conner? (whose two break-out PPG streaks/seasons were largely non-overlapping).

    Answer: Definitely you’d nose their arrival from well down the street.

    From where I sit, it seems to me that any person who could talk himself into taking year/year comparisons of turbulent, troubled, soon-curtailed coaching seasons the least bit serious could easily talk himself into procuring a Niki Nikitin when the social chips are down in pre-graduation week.

    After a year in the big chair where his few (but significant) blind spots sabotage his considerable strengths, I wouldn’t fire Staples from my coaching staff as a failed and tainted project. I’d put him right back into a role where he has plenty to offer, and welcome him warmly in the parking lot every morning, and be glad to count him as part of my team.

    Well, David could argue, there’s some influence due on my use of that story angle from the temperature and desire of Cult’s readership.

    Yes, indeed, and how exactly does that form of extra-curricular influence on sound decision making differ from trying to build a half billion dollar arena (on public money) with your management left hand?

    These are both prime examples of reasons other than job #1, which are unfortunately—and all too commonly—a necessary component of real life.

  31. LostBoy says:

    6:09pm—Skidplate: Let’s go OIlers let’s go. CLAP CLAP
    6:14pm—Skidplate: HOLY SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    6:14pm—Scott Ladouche: OMFG!

    I couldn’t bear to watch the lottery last year. I just refreshed the blog comments. Reading the above as they appeared was how I learned we’d won. I’ll always remember the two 6.14 comments.

  32. dustrock says:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/4/26/11502426/2016-nhl-draft-profile-jakob-chychrun-is-the-best-defensemen-in-the

    PPP on Chychrun.

    He had by far the most shots generated by a draft eligible d-man, and actually had more than Tkachuk and Nylander. Suffered from 5.5% shooting percentage. Wonder what his PDO is this year.

  33. dustrock says:

    Rondo:
    dustrock,

    Some scouts disagree with you regarding Juolevi.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/scouts-like-juolevi-chychrun-nhl-draft/

    That’s fine. The funny thing is the one scouting director actually says what I said “how good would Chychrun look if he was playing on London?”

  34. Sevenseven says:

    Speaking of balls in the air, Amazing song. Arrested development was a great show. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ek0UsA9FkHU

  35. eidy says:

    Looking forward to Saturday. Of the top 5 the one I am least sure of is Tkacuk. Not sure who is zooming whom in London.

    I really like Pierre-Luc dubois and surprised that the general consensus is to trade back if the pick isn’t top 3. If the oilers walk away with Matthews, either Finn, or Dubois that is a pretty good day.

    Taylor Hall draft year (Nov 91 birthday): 57 GP 40 G 66 A 106 Pts 56 Pim
    Pierre-Luc draft year (June 24 birthday): 62GP 42 G 57 A 99 Pts 112 Pim

    Taylor Hall 17 yo season 63 GP 38 G 52 A 90 Pts 60 Pim

    Would definitely think he is a Chiarrelli type player with 100 pts and 100 pims. Has played centre and wing. Lot to like there

  36. rickithebear says:

    Demers
    1. Comp #111 of 230 bottom 2nd
    2. HDSCA #121 of 227 2nd/3r PR
    3. EVP/60 #33 1st pair
    4. PKGA #119 3rd unit
    5. PPGF #87 of 103 should not be on the ice.

    1. We see what comp can be handled.

    2. & 4 are the measure of a d ability to reduce GA.

    3 & 5 are the measure of GF.
    This is were a lot of the man love is on this board. only looking at half the game.

    ***2 & 4 HAVE THE SAME GAME VALUE AS 3 & 5.*****
    EV Off – EV Defence
    PP OFF – PK Defence.

    Strong 2 & 4 D cost a lot less on cap.
    Strong 3 & 5 D cost Stupid money! like 9M stupid!

    1,2,3,4 are really the only time you should need to Defend.

    5 is the only none comp based defending.
    Heck you could run a 5 Fwd Unit if the system does not yield high SH opportunities.

    In what World is a
    1.bot 2nd 3rd comp D
    2. Below average at Even
    3. Top end EVP producing
    4. total crap PK D
    5. With total crap pp affect

    A prime Target?

  37. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Get 2nd in the lottery draft Laine. Trade Nuge, Yak, Reinhart for Subban and Mccarron. Eberle and Sekera for Hamonic and Strome. Sign Budaj and Trevor Lewis/ trade picks for Wingels or Shaw. Sweep the flames and Nucks. Get beat by Dallas in the conference final.

    I’d go vegan for that.

  38. rickithebear says:

    Klefbom:
    1, #35 comp 1st pr
    2. #59 HSCA D 1dst pr
    3. #24 EVP/60 1st pr
    4. #17 PKGA 1st unit
    the only 1st PR D in situations requiring defence of the net.

    K. Milller
    1. #80 Uppr 2nd comp
    2. #38 HSCA D 1st pr
    3. #65 EVP/60 fringe 1st pr EV OFF
    4. bottom PKGA this year. top 30 PKGA other years.
    he is on the fringe of being in a rare group of 6-8 D that cover 1,2,3.

    ***2 & 4 HAVE THE SAME GAME VALUE AS 3 & 5.*****
    EV Off – EV Defence
    PP OFF – PK Defence.

    Strong 2 & 4 D cost a lot less on cap.
    Strong 3 & 5 D cost Stupid money! like 9M stupid!

    1,2,3,4 are really the only time you should need to Defend.

    5 is the only none comp based defending.
    Heck you could run a 5 Fwd Unit if the system does not yield high SH opportunities.

    Lets look at the Elite Off 3 & 5 talked about here.
    Barrie; Subban; Yandle; Faulk; OEL; C. Miller

    Lets look at the The below to brutal 2 & 4 D.
    Let me cut and paste here!
    Barrie; Subban; Yandle; Faulk; OEL; C. Miller
    there is little or no Goal dif gain here!

    Lets look at the Strong 2 & 4 D
    Davidson Bottom 2nd comp; Vatanen 3rd comp

  39. rickithebear says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    Get 2nd in the lottery draft Laine. Trade Nuge, Yak, Reinhart for Subban and Mccarron. Eberle and Sekera for Hamonic and Strome. Sign Budaj and Trevor Lewis/ trade picks for Wingels or Shaw. Sweep the flames and Nucks. Get beat by Dallas in the conference final.

    I’d go vegan for that.

    Subban:
    Elite EVP/60 and PPGF
    below average HSCA and PKGA D.
    9 million dollars of break even.

    Goal Differential People.

    Not expensive Gf and Pretend GA does not exist.

    We had 2 Top 60 HSCA D
    30 gm of 1st comp
    and
    50 gm of bottom 2nd comp.

    The other 134 gm of 1st comp was bottom 60 HSCA D
    all other games of 2 nd 3rd comp were largely covered by bottom 20 HSCA D.

    Klefbom – XXX
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – K. Miller

  40. sliderule says:

    I wonder if it was an oiler scout who had Chychrun at four on Mckenzie’s list.

    The other thought I have is if it was a Canucks scout who had Fabbro at five on same list.

    To me reading the tea leaves both teams plan to draft a D .

  41. Wolf Of Ross St says:

    LT,
    I have no interest in drafting any of those dmen, none of them help this club in the next 3 years. We have been planning to win 3 years down the road for 10 years now.
    Q; does moving Drai to the wing & drafting 1 of the Finns make Eberle expendable? Too young?
    Would need to sign a veteran RW of find one for spare parts. Kinda like Maroon.
    I like Vatanen but the thought of Eberle in Anaheim makes me feel noxious.
    I’m going back to bed.

  42. flyfish1168 says:

    Luke Schenn is a UFA and he is a RHD. He is still young. Worth exploring.

    PS. The draft lottery force is strong with this team.:)

  43. AsiaOil says:

    Well we can speculate all we want – but the balls have to drop – then we can speculate some more. Funny how 90% of the important decisions are made in the last week of June and first week of July. The rest of the year is hot air for the most part. Here is my take on what we do in each slot of the top 5:

    #1 Matthews – definitely trade down (still top 10) for a very good defenseman and draft Sergachev

    #2 Laine – just take the pick as he’s CMDs Kurri

    #3 Pullujarvi – probably trade out completely for a very good defenseman (trade value > player?)

    #4 Dubois – maybe take the pick as he’s a Chia-type player (trade value < player?) but probably trade

    #5 Defenseman X – – probably trade out completely for a very good defenseman from cap stressed team

    I really think we are set up to make a blockbuster for a guy like Subban or Karlsson with a top 5 pick, one of the young defensemen (GR or Nurse) and Eberle/RNH as the bait. Only pick you really stay firm on is Laine at #2 – everything else is up for grabs

  44. AsiaOil says:

    flyfish1168,

    Luke Schenn is…..well……crappy. There are reasons he will be on his 4th team in the fall.

    Wolf of Ross Street makes a good point about none of the draft eligible dmen helping for years – only way we get one is by trading down IMHO.

  45. Lowetide says:

    doritogrande:
    A trade built around Jordan Eberle for Sami Vatanen has been in the ether for weeks

    It’s a good basis to build something around, I wonder if we can entice ANA to include Cogliano in the package if we sweeten the pot with a pick. Not only for my own personal salvation (I might be the only one in the world with a 13 Cogs jersey), but buddy has learned how to be a valuable foot soldier in California and he’s durable as hell.

    Draft talk, if we don’t wind up catching lightning in a bottle again and secure 1 or 2 (not sold on Jesse), I’d be of the opinion to trade down to 8-10 solely for the purpose of avoiding having to make the call on the “best available defense” prospect. Let somebody else swing at that curveball and even if they knock it for a double we can say we never had a shot at them.

    LT: Because I’ve asked it every year, and because Gare Joyce doesn’t get the recognition he deserves for Future Greats and Heartbreaks; how many Top-10’s?

    I think the answer is 10. Seriously.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/04/24/hard-60/

    Maybe 11, if DeBrincat or McAvoy are perceived that way.

  46. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy:
    **SPAM**

    New Because Oilers:

    Oiler Right Shot Dman search #1 – Jason Demers

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/04/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-1-jason.html

    **END SPAM**

    Lovely spam, wonderful spam!

    Chiarelli doesn’t have to guess as to what Demers can do. I hope they get him if he is wrecked.

  47. jake70 says:

    “6:14pm—Jake 70: ahahahahahaahahahahahahahaahahahahahaha”

    Woohoo, one of my posts made the main blog. Notice my eloquent writing style and use of complex vocabulary. I remember thinking of this when the gold card flipped over ….”Tim Murray on McDavid: “I watch him too much and I think too much about him … I wish I could help myself” “” ….still laughing.

  48. bendelson says:

    Well, I went 6 for 8 in predicting the first round of the playoffs…
    Proud of myself for selecting Nashville and the Islanders.
    Kicking myself for choosing Chicago and L.A.
    In hindsight, the depth on D just wasn’t there for either club.

  49. godot10 says:

    flyfish1168:
    Luke Schenn is a UFA and he is a RHD. He is still young. Worth exploring.

    PS. The draft lottery force is strong with this team.:)

    Luke Schenn is another #6D. The Oilers already have like half a dozen #6D. And as for role, arguably, Fayne and Gryba are better.

    The Oilers need two top four D.

  50. PeOiler says:

    zatch,

    When the wi-fi was extended to my work kitchen,(ie, able to read LT at work) I noticed a marked drop in productivity but a great rise in tomfoolery and persnickity. Good luck out there.

  51. cc says:

    Put this in the wrong thread initially.

    Here are the PPG All Situations and Even Strength for some of the top offensive D-men in the draft based on prospect-stats.com (now I have seen some inconsistencies in the site but they are pretty close).
    Player – PPG/ES-PPG
    Samuel Girard – 1.014 – 0.537
    Jake Bean 0.941/0.441
    Frederic Allard 0.922/0.344
    Cam Dineen 0.868/0.441
    Mikhail Sergachev 0.851/0.373
    David Quenneville 0.844/0.422
    Adam Fox 0.84/0.4
    Jakob Chychrun 0.79/0.339
    Olli Juolevi 0.719/0.298
    Johansen 0.6670.217
    Juolevi is at the bottom of both of those lists and London has 319 goals which is tied for the highest with Brandon Wheat Kings in the entire CHL. Juolevi might be a good d-man but I’d be hesitant of his offensive upside. If you are looking for an offensive dman Jake Bean might be the best but he seems like a 2nd pairing offensive d-man. (Keith Yandlish)
    Also there were three other fairly good good Even Strength point producers are Dawson Davidson – (0.441) likely a late round pick or may not even get drafted and two 2nd or 3rd round picks in JD Greenway (0.4) & Luke Green(0.426)

  52. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    cc,

    What’s the deal with Samuel Girard and Frederic Allard? Seems like those are pretty decent numbers.

  53. Factotum says:

    rickithebear:

    Barrie; Subban; Yandle; Faulk; OEL; C. Miller
    there is little or no Goal dif gain here!

    By xGD60 Relative: Barrie, Subban, and OEL are excellent.
    Demers looks pretty good, at least at second pairing comp.
    Yandle, Faulk, C. Miller – not so much. Vatanen is meh.
    Karlsson is also excellent in rel. goal differential. My personal favorite – Vlasic – is superb.

    More than one way to skin a cat.

    As a 3rd pairing RD option (where you slotted him), Kevan Miller isn’t a bad choice (by the numbers), if you’re of a mind that a 3rd pairing RD is what the Oilers lack.

  54. Quinlan says:

    Fantastic post LT! Very much enjoyed it. So much to consider.

    This is going to be a great Saturday. I mean, the least the Oilers are getting this year is Matthew Tkachuk or Pierre-Luc Dubois! If we drop to 3rd, we could get Puljujarvi!

    Crazy depth at the top-end when you think about it.

  55. kinger_OIL says:

    – Totally off topic, but a buddy pointed out to me that the 4 teams with the most points in the NHL are playing against each other: Wash vs Ptt, and STL vs Stars: Dumb.

  56. Ducey says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Totally off topic, but a buddy pointed out to me that the 4 teams with the most points in the NHL are playing against each other: Wash vs Ptt, and STL vs Stars:Dumb.

    Don’t be so hard on your buddy. He might even be right.

  57. Professor Q says:

    Aitch:
    I’m weary of both Tkachuk and Juolevi simply because they play for the Knights. Maybe, I’m gun shy because of Schremp and Gagner but there’s a history of players on that team looking better in junior than they are simply because Hunter and Co. will ride their top end players so heavily. It’s easy to play on an All-Star team.

    I really don’t get this attitude, to be honest (also, I think you meant wary, not weary, haha).

    “Too many good players, must not be good!”

    They aren’t the only team doing good, and there is a reason why their players do well. And it’s not just due to good coaching, but the fact that they are – surprise – good players.

  58. Quinlan says:

    *** SPAM ALERT ***

    With all the hubbub around Mr. Laine from Tappara, I take a look the inestimable Jesse Puljujarvi of Karpat, forgotten gentleman extraordinaire.

    In the Shadow of Laine: Finn (Part Two)

    Thanks again, Mr. Lowetide. Much obliged!

    *** END SPAM ***

  59. cc says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Allard is a RHS dman decent size 6’1 and excellent offense. He’s a 97 birthday but (Dec. 27th) so it’s not a huge red flag. He’s projected to go late first or second round.

    Girard is small 5’9 and has problems with defense and positioning. There’s also a question about his shot (not hard) so I’d question whether he will be able to QB the power play in the NHL. I believe Button has him as a 1st rounder, I can’t see it. Ryan Ellis scored 1.56 pts/g & Ryan Murphy scored 1.25 during their draft years in a tougher league and are an inch or two taller than Girard.

    In the Q. Luke Green, (6’1 – RHS) who many have as a 3rd rounder now, could be a steal he’s stuck behind Thomas Chabot, Zborbil (spelling) and another overage defenseman. His ES scoring is on par with almost everyone and his skating (according to scouting reports) is elite.

  60. kinger_OIL says:

    Ducey,

    Nice!

  61. admiralmark says:

    Everybody thinks its the lucky socks, Bill Scott, or Tambellini’s lucky tie. What everyone’s not realizing is the one constant in the whole equation is Bill Daley. He’s the Oilers angel sent down from heaven. Screw all the other teams lucky charms, we got divine intervention.

  62. Lowetide says:

    Always feel free to drop quality stuff into the time line. Fabulous information today!

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Aitch:
    I’m weary of both Tkachuk and Juolevi simply because they play for the Knights. Maybe, I’m gun shy because of Schremp and Gagner but there’s a history of players on that team looking better in junior than they are simply because Hunter and Co. will ride their top end players so heavily. It’s easy to play on an All-Star team.

    Crosby and Pou

  64. Richard S.S. says:

    The Pick, if #1 changes everything, there is no limit on what is possible for Peter Chiarelli. If a top RHD is available for Taylor Hall plus stuff, that’s acceptable, basically value traded for value. The Pick, if it is #2 or #3 will be a winger to play with The McDavid forever, filling the hole made by trading Hall. The Pick, if it is #4 or #5, just makes Chiarelli work harder.

  65. Professor Q says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Pouliot was drafted a year before Crosby played for Rimouski.

  66. commonfan14 says:

    Professor Q: Pouliot was drafted a year before Crosby played for Rimouski.

    And 5 years before Horcoff signed for $7 million.

  67. rickithebear says:

    Factotum: By xGD60 Relative:Barrie, Subban, and OEL are excellent.
    Demers looks pretty good, at least at second pairing comp.
    Yandle, Faulk, C. Miller – not so much.Vatanen is meh.
    Karlsson is also excellent in rel. goal differential.My personal favorite – Vlasic – is superb.

    More than one way to skin a cat.

    As a 3rd pairing RD option (where you slotted him), Kevan Miller isn’t a bad choice (by the numbers), if you’re of a mind that a 3rd pairing RD is what the Oilers lack.

    Get as many
    top 90 hsca d that
    face as high as comp as possible
    While getting a good evp/60 and a1/60

    So one pair is not doing the heavy lifting.

    K. Miller,s 1, 2, 3 numbers are only surpassed by 12 D.

    We had the highest count of bottom 60 hsca d.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Professor Q:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Pouliot was drafted a year before Crosby played for Rimouski.

    But he was signed to a two-way contract.

  69. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    I guess the question is how much would Chia pay for a solid 3RHD in K. Miller and is he better than any other available RHD ?

    The fact his underlying defensive #’s are solid should hold him to 3rd pair, but if he plays with Davidson and holds Nurse down in’the NHL, music.

    Can he skate though ?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca