WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THE 2016 DRAFT?

Peter Chiarelli traded an enormous number of draft picks away last year at the draft. He could afford to in a way—his first-round selection (Connor McDavid) was a guaranteed blue-chip player. Edmonton appears to have used their picks after No. 100 well, but the problems in the system are very real and extremely obvious. The Edmonton Oilers don’t have enough quality prospects—in goal, RHD, LW and RW. That is a fact.

I believe the team needs to stand and deliver on many of the picks currently on their draft board.

OILERS DRAFT PICKS (PROJECTED) 2016

  1. No. 2 overall
  2. No. 32 overall
  3. No. 62 overall
  4. No. 85 overall (Florida pick)
  5. No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)
  6. No. 122 overall
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)
  8. No. 152 overall
  9. No. 182 overall

Edmonton used only one selection in the top 100 last season, but PC has five this spring. I have little doubt one of those picks is heading somewhere, but am hopeful the organization plans on posting a recovery draft. Here are all of the players under Edmonton’s control outside NA pro hockey:

  1. G Miroslav Svoboda (Czech-2)
  2. G Nick Ellis (NCAA)
  3. G Zack Nagelvoort (NCAA)
  4. G Keven Bouchard (QMJHL)
  5. D Ziyat Paigin (KHL—signed for next season)
  6. D Ethan Bear (WHL)
  7. D Caleb Jones (WHL)
  8. D William Lagesson (NCAA)
  9. D John Marino (USHL)
  10. L Evan Cambell (NCAA)
  11. L Aidan Muir (NCAA)
  12. L Daniil Zharkov (inj)
  13. C Roman Horak (KHL—signed for next season)
  14. C Tyler Vesel (NCAA)
  15. R Jere Sallinen (KHL)
  16. R Antti Tyrvainen (SHL)

There are some names we will never see again, and there are some talents who will never see the NHL. Among the prospects listed here, I would list defense as having the greatest depth—there are even two RHD in this group. The four goalies are not blue-chip prospects, that is an area of weakness. Centers? Nothing shaking. Wingers? Crickets. There is work to be done.

draisaitl draft board

BULLET POINTS

We’ve talked about a few trends for this draft season and I am hoping to see a few things from Edmonton this year.

  • At least two skill forwards from the first three rounds.
  • At least three players from a fabulous OHL crop.
  • It’s okay to pass on drafting a goalie if he isn’t there. Seriously.
  • The LHD bin is full. Break glass only in case of emergency—or another Paigin.
  • The RHD bin is in need of help.
  • Wingers should be valued, but centers can play wing, too.
  • Draft re-entries are people, too.
  • Stay away from the 20-year olds playing tier two and on their way to Guacamole State.

If we apply all of those rules to the available picks, here is what the Oilers draft could look like:

  1. No. 2 overall—W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga)
  2. No. 32 overall—C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
  3. No. 62 overall—RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SEL)
  4. No. 85 overall (Florida pick)—G Jeremy Halvig, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)
  5. No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)—RD Jordan Sambrook, Erie Otters (OHL)
  6. No. 122 overall—C Jordy Stallard, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)—R Matt Luff, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL)
  8. No. 152 overall—W Egor Babenko, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)
  9. No. 182 overall—C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

We are getting closer, suspect the expansion draft date (2017 is possible) will be announced very soon. Never assume anything with the NHL, they could announce 2018. That said, it does impact Peter Chiarelli’s course of action this summer in a very specific way: He will use the first-round pick—that player will be exempt.

Raider Jesse has been on top of this from the start (along with the usual suspects) and is suggesting on twitter this means Edmonton will keep their pick (I agree). I have taken a patient stance, knowing the NHL could slow play or fast track at a moment’s notice. This does appear to be real, and I would differ a little for RJ (below). Connor McDavid and Darnell Nurse (as I understand it) would not have to be on the list (Raider Jesse confirmed that was his understanding as well).

  1. G Cam Talbot
  2. D Oscar Klefbom
  3. D Andrej Sekera
  4. D Brandon Davidson
  5. D Jason Demers (acquired via FA)
  6. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  7. C Leon Draisaitl
  8. L Taylor Hall
  9. R Jordan Eberle

That is my list, your mileage may vary. Remember, Edmonton loses only one player, so the way I have set it up the expansion team likely takes a LW (Pouliot, Maroon) or a young blue (Reinhart will have value to an expansion team). There is another way:

ACQUIRE OR SIGN ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL GOALIE

TALBOT CAPTURE 1

James Reimer led the NHL in even-strength save percentage in 2015-16 (.938). He is a free agent this summer coming off a two-year deal that provided a cap hit of $2.3 million. If Peter Chiarelli signs Reimer to a multi-year contract this summer, he will have two goalies who have reasonable contracts and a good chance to show well in the coming year. If Reimer can deliver quality, Edmonton can be somewhat confident their goaltender will be chosen—effectively ensuring the rest of the roster remains intact. Failing that Chiarelli could make a deadline deal in 2017 to grab a goalie from another team, putting Edmonton in the same spot as the potential Reimer signing.

Trust me, this has worked before and it is an effective means to expansion certainty. I don’t often prattle on about my expertise (if is however implied in every line 🙂 ), but this expansion draft business has occupied a lot of my time as an adult.

One final thing: Beware of making too many expansion draft protected lists. Why?

I am with Raider Jesse on this one, the lottery pick will have extreme value because it can be added to the list of players who (as I understand it) are expansion draft exempt:

  1. Connor McDavid
  2. Auston Matthews
  3. Darnell Nurse
  4. Caleb Jones
  5. Ethan Bear
  6. John Marino
  7. Miroslav Svoboda
  8. Ziyat Paigin
  9. William Lagesson
  10. Anton Slepyshev
  11. Nick Ellis

That is a pretty fantastic list. Now, in drafting Matthews, it does allow Edmonton to trade a forward (perhaps Pouliot or Maroon) in an effort to improve the team. Miles and miles of words to say this: Keep the draft pick—if the plan is to expand next spring.

Sail on, Niklas. We seriously never knew you. All the best.

I went into last year’s lottery believing Edmonton would not win and have set my mind to the same number (’11. It goes to 11′) this time. I would have liked to read the entire lottery selection document thoroughly, because Lou has been in Toronto long enough to slide a ‘trap door’ clause into it. Probably saying something like ‘if Edmonton wins the lottery, the snakes and ladders rule activates, and they slide to No. 46 overall’. You think I’m joking.

widmark

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Instant show prep if the Oilers win! Haha. A fun show on the way, beginning at 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. The lottery anticipation, NHL playoffs and the Jays.
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. Three QBs taken on day one of the NFL draft. Which one is better?
  • Matt Iwaynk, TSN1260. Eagles make the right move with Wentz? And should Edmonton trade the lottery pick?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Paul has all of his candles lit for the lottery, we will discuss who to take, and who might be headed out because of it.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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87 Responses to "WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THE 2016 DRAFT?"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    The Edmonton Oilers are proud to select in the first round of the 2016 NHL entry draft, from the nether regions of Hades, The Ghost of Lennert Petrell.

    And a trade has been made…..The Edmonton Oilers have traded Ryan Nugent Hopkins for the real Lennart Petrell, wherever he is now.

    LT is never heard from again…..

    Seriously, looking forward to the lottery. Might as well. If we’re 1 or 2, I think we keep it. 3 and lower, it’s trade bait.

  2. Aitch says:

    As big as last year’s lottery was for the team, this year’s could be even bigger.
    Draft 1st – Add Matthews; trade other Top 6 for established blue help. Or trade Matthews for package.
    Draft 2nd – Add Laine; or pretty well same as Matthews. I suspect Laine is the one guy they would keep.
    Draft 3rd – We get Puljujarvi. Two-way scoring Right-winger. Yes please. Or, he’s a trade chip.
    Draft 4th – still a very good prospect or a pretty good trade chip.
    Draft 5th – still not bad + we get to watch Leafs fans meltdown after not winning any of three lotteries despite intentionally tanking all season.

    Win. Win. Win. Win. Win!

  3. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Is Edmonton still in the running for Drake Caggiula ?

  4. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Bohologo:
    The Oilers had terrible luck this year (injuries, plague, zebras hate us), so here are two stories that explain where it all went. EPL fans have been watching this unfold for months, but what if a team’s luck suddenly changed?

    In Leicester City’s case, going from relegation candidate (read: lottery team) to top of the premiership in one year:
    The Most Shocking Championship in the History of Professional Sports
    http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2016/04/leicester_city_is_now_a_virtual_lock_to_win_the_premier_league_it_happened.html

    One of the Greatest Seasons in Sports History
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/01/sports/soccer/how-leicester-city-went-right-side-up.html?_r=0

    A remarkable tale, and well told in the Slate piece.Doesn’t matter if you don’t hate Chelsea or Man U (or both, in my case [go Gunners!]), dare to imagine what it would be like to cheer for a team that’s been beaten down for years and then gets off the canvas and starts punching again.

    Just think.

    It’s a great story. I’m not a soccer fan, I decided years ago my team is West Ham on the basis of it being a combination of my favorite direction and third favorite breakfast pork.

    That said, this is a human interest story as far as I’m concerned. Great to see something like this regardless of which sport it’s taking place in, because it’s about rewarding those fans who probably never thought it would happen.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Eastern MSM be all like: Edmonton are a disgrace, tanking is not in the spirit of the game. If they win, they should be banned from having anymore #1OVs. By the way, what Toronto are doing is a brave tactic of sacrificing veterans and league standings to restock the youth and re-invigorate the franchise. It may take a few years of misery, but it’s the right way to do it.

  6. wheatnoil says:

    Mentioned this on Twitter but thought I’d post it here for discussion:

    An expansion draft next year means that UFAs this year have some extra value… in that they can be left unprotected (assuming no NMC) next year and you lose a guy that you didn’t spend an asset to acquire. So Demers, for example, could be left unprotected as a carrot to protect someone like Davidson.

    This opens the door to trading the draft pick (let’s say it’s not in the top 3) for a D. It’s tricky because the draft is before free agency, so you don’t have the UFA in the bag when you make the deal (though the window to talk to them is open for a day or so, I believe).

    Example:
    Trade #4 overall for a D (+ pieces as necessary)
    Sign Demers. Extend the term to keep the AAV lower, but don’t give him an NMC.

    Now, you can protect:
    7 forwards + McDavid (Hall, Nuge, Ebs, Drai, Maroon, Pou, Yak)
    3 defense (Sekera, Klefbom, Hamonic / Vatanen / whatever D you acquire for the pick)
    1 goalie (Talbot)

    You leave Demers unprotected as the carrot in order to keep the low-cost Davidson (and Reinhart, Oesterle, etc)

    NOW you enter next summer with ALL your forwards intact, so you can trade one of them to replace Demers. Drai and McDavid have another year of experience… maybe you can trade Nuge at that time. Drai is due for a new contract, so shedding a forward at that time becomes more reasonable as well.

    A lot of things have to go right there, but I’m putting it out there as an option. A UFA signing has no acquisition cost but cap and term, so it’s easier to lose the UFA acquisition and keep the rest of your assets intact. (Of course, someone like Demers would see this coming and may demand an NMC for the first year just to prevent this… so maybe none of this is an option).

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! I totally disagree with you when you say our problem is: “The Edmonton Oilers don’t have enough quality prospect”

    – Kinger says: “The Oil don’t have enough quality NHL players” Prospects? We aren’t talking prospects, we are talking about winning games, now. Prospects don’t help winning

    – Now if we had prospects we could package up for bona-fide NHL’ers that’s different

    – Trading picks to get a starting G last year was smart. Trading picks to get Reinhart would have been great if Reinhart was as ready for NHL duty as Davidson ended up. Had we got Hamilton for picks, we would be a lot better. If we can trade picks for this year’s Hamilton: do it.

    – No offence, the only thing that excites me about this draft is what return we will get for the picks,

    – Save Matthews or Laine, who improve the team next year, who cares: improve now.

    *LT – I love all the prospect work you do: its’ part of this blogs magic, don’t take what I’m saying as a slight against that: its awesome work, and fun to follow.

  8. Pajamah says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: It’s a great story.I’m not a soccer fan, I decided years ago my team is West Ham on the basis of it being a combination of my favorite direction and third favorite breakfast pork.

    That said, this is a human interest story as far as I’m concerned.Great to see something like this regardless of which sport it’s taking place in, because it’s about rewarding those fans who probably never thought it would happen.

    Screw them!!!

    South Bacon Pigglywigglies will take the derby this year.

    I’m more interested in the Guacamole State Limons LT was talking about.

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    Listening to BBC Radio 2 online. Fantastic show with Dave Clark from Dave Clark 5 as guest.

    wheatnoil,

    Whilst I think it important to protect whom we want, it’s also important that we don’t out-smart ourselves.

    By which I mean we don’t waste protection spaces on players that won’t be picked up.

    Should make the trade market interesting next year. Maybe even create a faux one.

  10. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Pajamah,

    Well now I’m just hungry.

    Usually this happens when I listen to LTs radio show and he advertises for that sandwhich shop.

    Damn it, it’s only 900am.

    Just another reason to hate soccer.

  11. wheatnoil says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Listening to BBC Radio 2 online.Fantastic show with Dave Clark from Dave Clark 5 as guest.

    wheatnoil,

    Whilst I think it important to protect whom we want, it’s also important that we don’t out-smart ourselves.

    By which I mean we don’t waste protection spaces on players that won’t be picked up.

    Should make the trade market interesting next year.Maybe even create a faux one.

    Yes, this is true. My scenario probably doesn’t make sense, but I do think some GMs are going to sign guys this summer with either expansion protection in place (high year 2 salaries, signing bonuses on July 1st 2017) or with the intention of leaving them available as a carrot to try to protect their other assets.

  12. Pajamah says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Pajamah,

    Well now I’m just hungry.

    Usually this happens when I listen to LTs radio show and he advertises for that sandwhich shop.

    Damn it, it’s only 900am.

    Just another reason to hate soccer.

    turkey on rye with cranberry……….mmmmmmm.

  13. Primetime says:

    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey
    Friedman/expansion draft: “The no-move clauses are going to be honored. You’re not going to be able to move a guy who’s on a no-move.”

    Any protection list that you consider must take Ference into account. If he has to be one of the protected skaters, then that changes everything. Will put more pressure on Chia to try and trade his contract, but will also make him harder to trade, even to a cap floor team. If he is still injured this summer (which I believe he will be), he can’t be bought out. Only way out is for him to fall on his own sword and retire….as Gregor mentioned the other day, would cost him about $1 million, so no chance (don’t blame him either).

  14. slopitch says:

    Bohologo:
    The Oilers had terrible luck this year (injuries, plague, zebras hate us), so here are two stories that explain where it all went. EPL fans have been watching this unfold for months, but what if a team’s luck suddenly changed?

    In Leicester City’s case, going from relegation candidate (read: lottery team) to top of the premiership in one year:
    The Most Shocking Championship in the History of Professional Sports
    http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2016/04/leicester_city_is_now_a_virtual_lock_to_win_the_premier_league_it_happened.html

    One of the Greatest Seasons in Sports History
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/01/sports/soccer/how-leicester-city-went-right-side-up.html?_r=0

    A remarkable tale, and well told in the Slate piece.Doesn’t matter if you don’t hate Chelsea or Man U (or both, in my case [go Gunners!]), dare to imagine what it would be like to cheer for a team that’s been beaten down for years and then gets off the canvas and starts punching again.

    Just think.

    Good read. Nice to see what a couple good/lucky signings can do to help turn a team around.

  15. fifthcartel says:

    Primetime,

    I’m sure he’d agreed to be exposed, if that’s a possibility. No one will pick him and it won’t affect him at all since he’ll likely never be healthy enough to play anymore.

  16. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Primetime,

    But his contract is up at the end of this year…. so if a team picked him they would immediately lose him.

    I don’t see how that will count.

  17. wheatnoil says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Primetime,

    But his contract is up at the end of this year….so if a team picked him they would immediately lose him.

    I don’t see how that will count.

    He also could retire at the end of the season and before the expansion draft, thereby no longer making him an active roster player but his salary has already been paid out.

  18. Doug McLachlan says:

    Primetime,

    Not sure that Ference needs to be protected if the season is over he is a UFA, no?

  19. fifthcartel says:

    gary lawlessVerified account
    ‏@garylawless
    More #nhl expansion draft info. sources indicate no-moves must be protected by teams. no-trade clauses not exempt and can be left exposed.

    So.. Sekera, Talbot, and Ference…

  20. Primetime says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    If the expansion draft is done before the start of free agency next year (July 1, 2017), then Ference will still technically be under contract and will need to be protected. It doesn’t matter that no team will take him, its that we have to use a protected spot for him. Hopefully Fifthcartel is right and he will agree to be unprotected….but you never know with the NHLPA, they may insist that it is not even an option to expose for the expansion draft to keep teams from pressuring certain players. Since you have to leave a certain amount of your salary cap exposed, Ference’s big ticket would be even more important to expose.

    I was thinking about a way around this (in case he doesn’t agree to be exposed) would be trade his contract to a contending team who may feel they have a closing window and need to win now. For example, if Chicago feels they were one more solid D away from another Cup next year, they may consider a Ference for Bickell swap. Ference can be IR’d and they would have the extra cap room to get a real defenceman now. If Bickell stays on their roster, he eats cap space whether he is in the minors all year or not.

    We would be free to expose Bickell in the expansion draft instead. Only problem is we lose the valuable cap space next year and limits ability to fix our own defence this off season to try and turn north. Would depend on what a Chicago would give us in return for this transaction. Maybe inserting someone like Wideman in that scenario instead of Bickell would make sense so at least we get a somewhat useable defence man for a year while we wait for cap space to clear/expansion draft.

    Just a thought,

  21. Jethro Tull says:

    fifthcartel:
    gary lawlessVerified account
    ‏@garylawless
    More #nhl expansion draft info. sources indicate no-moves must be protected by teams. no-trade clauses not exempt and can be left exposed.

    So.. Sekera, Talbot, and Ference…

    Ference will not be an Oiler by the time of the expansion.

  22. Oddspell says:

    fifthcartel:
    gary lawlessVerified account
    ‏@garylawless
    More #nhl expansion draft info. sources indicate no-moves must be protected by teams. no-trade clauses not exempt and can be left exposed.

    So.. Sekera, Talbot, and Ference…

    Well, presumably Ference won’t be under contract by the expansion.

  23. kylo says:

    Expansion draft in 2017 shouldn’t be too bad. 2018 would be a different story with McDavid and Nurse not exempt any more.

  24. SwedishPoster says:

    Just curious LT, how’d you pick up the name Filip Berglund? I’ll post my opinion on some of this years draftees out of Sweden sometime during the weekend and Berglund is one of the guys I’m high on but since he’s flying somewhat under the radar I just wonder how you heard of him. Very interesting player, offensively gifted kid, RHD, good size, great skater. Overager, was draft eligible 2015, who missed a big chunk of his draft -1 season due to a broken arm I think it was so last year was sort of a getting back on track year but this season he’s looked great. Doubt he’ll go as high as 62 though I personally wouldn’t mind him much there. However I think you can hold your cards until the fifth rd or so.

  25. Lloyd B. says:

    To keep beating a dead horse. The gifts of McTavish just keep on giving. IF they had only played him 9 games last year instead of keeping him up til Christmas Drai would not need to be protected in an expansion draft this year. It just never ends.

  26. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Just curious LT, how’d you pick up the name Filip Berglund? I’ll post my opinion on some of this years draftees out of Sweden sometime during the weekend and Berglund is one of the guys I’m high on but since he’s flying somewhat under the radar I just wonder how you heard of him. Very interesting player, offensively gifted kid, RHD, good size, great skater. Overager, was draft eligible 2015, who missed a big chunk of his draft -1 season due to a broken arm I think it was so last year was sort of a getting back on track year but this season he’s looked great. Doubt he’ll go as high as 62 though I personally wouldn’t mind him much there. However I think you can hold your cards until the fifth rd or so.

    I ran some equivalencies and he showed well. I am working on my Oilers and Sweden draft post and he looked good for sure.

  27. neojanus says:

    Poor Boudreau. I think this is a terrible move by the Ducks. They dominated the league for most of the season and got beat by one of the best defensive teams in the west and a very good goalie.

    Teams are far too quick to relieve good coaches after slightly underachieving in a very competitive conference.

    The Ducks roster is flawed a little bit in that there is too much performance pressure on two players and in playoff hockey, that can be stifled easily by the likes of Ellis, Weber, Josi, etc etc.

    Ah well, the Senators will enjoy these spoils next year because Boudreau is a very good coach.

  28. speeds says:

    kylo:
    Expansion draft in 2017 shouldn’t be too bad. 2018 would be a different story with McDavid and Nurse not exempt any more.

    Even more reason to keep the pick this year – based on current rules, that player wouldn’t need to be protected in a 2018 expansion draft even if they start playing in the NHL this fall.

  29. fifthcartel says:

    Damn, I’m just thinking about Boudreau coaching McDavid.

  30. gerberoo says:

    The expansion draft could make a lot of teams scramble: Look at the St. Louis Blues:

    Fabbri is exempt but Parayko played 17 games for the Chicago Wolves last year and will be in his third pro season and will have to be protected.

    If they go 8 players they would protect
    D – Pieterangelo, Bouwmeester, Shattenkirk, Parayko
    F – Tarasenko, Schwartz, Steen, Backes
    Exposed – Stastny, Lehtera, Berglund, Brouwer, Gunnarson etc.

    If they protect 7 + 3 they would protect
    D – Pieterangelo, Shattenkirk, Parayko
    F – Tarasenko, Schwartz, Steen, Backes, Stastny, Lehtera, Berglund
    Exposed – Bouwmeester, Brouwer, Gunnarson

    The Oilers may be able to get Shattenkirk at a reduced cost so they can use the 7 + 3 format and not have to expose Bouwmeester. There are alos considerations that you need to expose a certain % of money as well so they still may not be able to protect a guy like Stastny or Lehtera and meet those requirements.

  31. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    gerberoo,

    Shattenkirk only has 1 year left, so he wouldn’t be protected.

    If I’m a team like the Sharks I make a hand shake deal with Brent Burns, avoid protecting him, and then close the deal in July.

  32. gerberoo says:

    Also the Blackhawks wouldn’t have a problem with the number of players they can protect but since there is the dollar value that needs to be exposed they might have to expose someone or two guys they really don’t want to. If they have to expose 25% of their payroll to the process it gets challenging:

    Total Payroll – $69,329,462
    Kane – 15.15%
    Toews – 15.15%
    Hossa – 7.6%
    Anisimov – 4.7%
    Kruger – 4.4%
    Shaw – Estimate – 5%
    Teravainen – 1.2%
    Keith – 7.9%
    Seabrook – 9.9%
    Hjalmarsson – 5.9%
    Crawford – 8.7%

    Total = 85.6%
    That means they need to expose another 10.6% and that’s two of the higher paid players above.

  33. vinotintazo says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    gerberoo,

    Shattenkirk only has 1 year left, so he wouldn’t be protected.

    If I’m a team like the Sharks I make a hand shake deal with Brent Burns, avoid protecting him, and then close the deal in July.

    So you’re saying teams wont extend their Pending UFAs next year because of expansion?

    I guess that makes sense. hmmm…

  34. gerberoo says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    gerberoo,

    Shattenkirk only has 1 year left, so he wouldn’t be protected.

    If I’m a team like the Sharks I make a hand shake deal with Brent Burns, avoid protecting him, and then close the deal in July.

    If the Blues don’t re-sign Shattenkirk then they are exposing him to UFA instead of the Expansion draft. I don’t see how that helps them unless they are 100% confident he will hit July 1st and come right back and you almost never see that happen.

  35. kylo says:

    speeds,

    Agree 100%

  36. Caramel Batman says:

    gerberoo,

    Shattenkirk will be gone by then. They won’t want to protect Stastny. No problems here.

    No one is going to care about not protecting expensive veterans.

  37. Snowman says:

    gerberoo:
    Also the Blackhawks wouldn’t have a problem with the number of players they can protect but since there is the dollar value that needs to be exposed they might have to expose someone or two guys they really don’t want to. If they have to expose 25% of their payroll to the process it gets challenging:

    Total Payroll – $69,329,462
    Kane – 15.15%
    Toews – 15.15%
    Hossa – 7.6%
    Anisimov – 4.7%
    Kruger – 4.4%
    Shaw – Estimate – 5%
    Teravainen – 1.2%
    Keith – 7.9%
    Seabrook – 9.9%
    Hjalmarsson – 5.9%
    Crawford – 8.7%

    Total = 85.6%
    That means they need to expose another 10.6% and that’s two of the higher paid players above.

    Seabrook is a no brainer. His contract is atrocious. I’d imagine they’re banking on expansion to get rid of that deal.

  38. speeds says:

    Snowman: Seabrook is a no brainer. His contract is atrocious. I’d imagine they’re banking on expansion to get rid of that deal.

    He has a NMC

  39. Lois Lowe says:

    At one point in my life I chose Leicester as my EPL team for no particular reason except that I couldn’t pronounce their name properly. I almost always choose a team that’s terrible enough to never have a shot at winning lest I be labelled a bandwagoner.

    Last year though, I decided that I would go all in on Aston Villa and this year they were relegated. It feels more appropriate than Leicester for me, but I am really happy for the long suffering fans of the Lions.

  40. vinotintazo says:

    I hope Ference gets bought out then.

    my Protected.
    FWDs:
    1)Hall
    2)RNH
    3)Ebs
    4)Draisaitl
    5)Poo
    6)Maroon
    7)Yak

    Defense:
    1)Kbom
    2)Sekera
    3)Reinhart(Ference)

    Goal:
    1)Talbot

    Obiously this is with current roster. if players are traded/signed, then I assume those players will be protected.

  41. gerberoo says:

    speeds: He has a NMC

    Yep, Toews, Kane, Hossa, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Keith and Crawford all have to be protected due to NMC’s.

  42. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    vinotintazo: So you’re saying teams wont extend their Pending UFAs next year because of expansion?

    I guess that makes sense. hmmm…

    I guess I’m saying, where teams are looking to extend a UFA, that they will make an informal deal with them and then close it on July 2.

    I realize it’s probably in violation of the CBA. I don’t think it matters and will happen anyway because people won’t be able to prove it.

    It’s what I would do. It’s also probably what Lou would do.

    “Hey, Brent, this is a deal that works for both of us. Let’s trust each other to sign it and shake on it instead. We’ll get this done in early July. That’s going to help make sure we can ice the best possible team next year and go for a cup. Agreed?”

    It’ll happen.

  43. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    vinotintazo,

    You’d protect Reinhart over Davidson?

  44. gerberoo says:

    vinotintazo:
    I hope Ference gets bought out then.

    my Protected.
    FWDs:
    1)Hall
    2)RNH
    3)Ebs
    4)Draisaitl
    5)Poo
    6)Maroon
    7)Yak

    Defense:
    1)Kbom
    2)Sekera
    3)Reinhart(Ference)

    Goal:
    1)Talbot

    Obiously this is with current roster. if players are traded/signed, then I assume those players will be protected.

    You’re okay with exposing Davidson? I would be exposing Reinhart instead.

  45. monsterbater says:

    Last time i checked they haven’t announced expansion yet. We can all get into a huff over worrying about ference and his NMC, or we can wait to see if it actually happens next summer. I say this with the understanding from a previous report that the NHL would need to give the new team over a year’s notice that they have been awarded a team. Since the expansion draft would have likely have to occur before next years draft i am surmising that the announcement of expansion would have to come prior to this year’s buyout window. If that’s the case, then chiarelli can make a decision on whether to buyout ference (if possible) at that time.

  46. vinotintazo says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    vinotintazo,

    You’d protect Reinhart over Davidson?

    I had davidson there changed him last minute, I think Reinhart has more market value, but Davidson has more value to the oil, also Chia traded for this guy, you think he will not protect him?

    if Davidson has another great season then I guess they have to protect him.

  47. gerberoo says:

    monsterbater,

    Ference won’t have a contract by the time the expansion draft hits so it doesn’t matter. Also they have agreed on the rules as of today. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2636655-nhl-nhlpa-agree-to-expansion-draft-rules-latest-details-comments-reaction

  48. vinotintazo says:

    gerberoo: Ference won’t have a contract by the time the expansion draft hits

    its a grey area, ference becomes UFA July 1st, expansion draft will be before that.

    Also no words on players allowed to waive this.

  49. gerberoo says:

    vinotintazo: I had davidson there changed him last minute, I think Reinhart has more market value, but Davidson has more value to the oil, also Chia traded for this guy, you think he will not protect him?

    if Davidson has another great season then I guess they have to protect him.

    Davidson is close to being a top four defenseman now and Reinhart is struggling to be a six and his upside is as a potential top 4 defenseman. No competition in my mind but you are right that we will need to re-evaluate this all after watching another season play out.

  50. Fog of Warts says:

    Bruce misspelled Saint Bowman as “Satn Bowman” in his piece today. I’m surprised it didn’t come out “Satin”. In any case, Bruce needs to get his digital cross-overs under better control. While he’s there, he might also take a hack at “waivrs”.

    ———

    Is it just me, or am I the only person who will show up in the mourning throng with a placard reading “waivers 4 wavers” when Charles ascends?

    After having a black American president, perhaps the next step is to have an African commonwealth nation upgrade themselves to the commonwealth realm. Even with Charles freshly installed under the helm, I think Kenya would think long and hard about letting this once-in-a-confederation opportunity to have it both ways slip off the wire (an American president and a British king—Safi! [†]).

    What a graceful way to say “so long, and thanks for the fish”. No buy-out. No exchange of damaged assets. Just a simple, sad sayonara. Bu-bye.

    ———

    [†] Google translate tells me “Safi” is Swahili for “woohoo”, but other sources tell me “safi” means “clean”. Next stop, obtain Google Translate’s verdict on “Gorbachev Sings Tractors: Turnip! Buttocks!”

    ———

    (Relax people, I agglomerated my Vitamix with politically-charged Goji berries just to make a leaf-culture mocking hockey joke. Humour, it’s a thing.)

  51. gerberoo says:

    vinotintazo: its a grey area, ference becomes UFA July 1st, expansion draft will be before that.

    It won’t be a grey area at all, exposing pending UFA’s would be pointless. You need to remember that the rules of expansion are not set up to screw over the existing teams but instead to provide a decent talent pool for the expansion teams to pick from. Having a huge list of guys that are about to be a UFA in a week to select from doesn’t help the expansion team in any way. Pending UFA’s won’t be part of it.

  52. vinotintazo says:

    gerberoo: exposing pending UFA’s would be pointless.

    I know its pointless, but I see no mention on twitter that says Pending UFAs with NMC do not count.

    obviously I hope he doesnt count.

  53. vinotintazo says:

    RE: Davidson

    I think he was the team’s best dmen last year, but we also have to keep in mind that was on a 29th place team.

    Now would Las Vegas consider him for their top 8? idk would have to look at other team’s protected lists.

  54. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide,

    Cool. I like the player. Bit of a project and far from a sure bet but with absolute upside. I like him far more than some if the more hyped D prospects this draft.

  55. ashley says:

    I don’t think drafting for need is the path to success. Drafting is really hard. To skip over talented players to fill some organizational need is bound to backfire. To go even further and be really picky about the organizational need (ie we need a Dman now, but must be RHD) would really handcuff professional talent-assessors and roster-builders in a process that is already filled with landmines at every turn.

    Or maybe they will get really lucky with a reach for a RHD when other better ranked players are available to be picked? Perhaps. It’s the NHL draft after all, and there is more than a little luck involved. But the history suggests that the odds would be against them being reliably successful..

    I’m hoping for 1OV tomorrow and if not us then the Leafs so we don’t drop to 5. Worst outcome? One of the 1-2%ers wins like Carolina or Boston. Check that, there is something much worse than that which I can’t even stomach mentioning.

    Go Oilers Go.

  56. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Gerry Flemming is really impressed with Dillon Simpson.

    I know it’s wrong to put too much emphasis on these things, but I’ve liked what I’ve seen of the kid since draft day. Steady improvement.

    I’m crossing my fingers the Simpson today is basically Brandon Davidson from 24 months ago.

  57. G Money says:

    Last year I assumed we would not pick 1OV so paid little attention to the whole McEichel business in the leadup.

    So we had a dinner party that night (mostly non hockey interested people) and I’d sneak off now and then to check the results, hoping we’d get Hanifin.

    Both the sneaking off and the drinking (and general sense of cheer) picked up markedly once the lottery was won!

    Like last year, I just assume we won’t get 1OV this year, paying little attention to Matthews/Laine, and I’m still trying to convince my wife we should have a dinner party tomorrow.

    But I assure you, I’m a scientist, and not superstitious in the least. Not at all. Nope.

  58. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    Last year I assumed we would not pick 1OV so paid little attention to the whole McEichel business in the leadup.

    So we had a dinner party that night (mostly non hockey interested people) and I’d sneak off now and then to check the results, hoping we’d get Hanifin.

    Both the sneaking off and the drinking (and general sense of cheer) picked up markedly once the lottery was won!

    Like last year, I just assume we won’t get 1OV this year, paying little attention to Matthews/Laine, and I’m still trying to convince my wife we should have a dinner party tomorrow.

    But I assure you, I’m a scientist, and not superstitious in the least.Not at all. Nope.

    Any pictures from the dinner party last year? Make sure those clothes are in the laundry tonight so they’re ready to go tomorrow. Unless they were stained last year… then you definitely need to re-stain them. How was the living room arranged? What was made for supper? Who did you invite? Where the hell is my rabbit’s foot???

  59. godot10 says:

    Damned lottery last year ruined the great hashtag game I had going in #JustSayNoah. It was such a bummer to have a hashtag ruined.

    So this year…my motto is #DontCountYourChychrunsBeforeTheyHatch

  60. rickithebear says:

    Having NMC pending UFA to be protected exposes more talent!

    Oilers top EVp/60 Seasons since l12-13 ockout:
    #1 Hall 12-13 3.03
    #2 Hall 13-14 2.78
    #3 Mcdavid 15-16 2.75
    #4 Hall 15-16 2.30
    #5 Eberle 12-13 2.28
    #6 Draisatl 15-16 2.19
    #7 Yakupov 12-13 2.14
    #8 Pouliot 15-16 2.03
    #9 Eberle 14-15 1.98
    #9 Pouliot 14-15 1.98
    #11 Eberle 13-14 1.95
    #12 RNH 14-15 1.92
    #12 Perron 13-14 1.92
    #14 Eberle 15-16 1.90 13gm injured 0.30; healthy 56gm 2.30
    #15 Hall 14-15 1.86

    Hall
    Draisatl
    Eberle
    Pouliot

    Sekera
    Klefbom
    Davidson
    A. Larsson

    Talbot

    Ference announces his retirement from hockey 1 week before end of 16-17 reg. season.

    If we did not trade RNH/Yak for Larsson + then RNH replaces Pouliot and Larsson is replaced by
    whoever is the top 90 HSCA D we acquire this summer.

  61. wheatnoil says:

    Friedman reports that some things may have changed re: expansion rules since the GMs meeting. He’s pretty sure the number of players, etc has stayed the same, but he’s not sure about the 25% salary rule.

    So we wait.

    When Chiarelli trades half the roster this summer, it’s really going to mess with all our protected lists! 🙂

  62. rickithebear says:

    vinotintazo:
    RE: Davidson

    I think he was the team’s best dmen last year, but we also have to keep in mind that was on a 29th place team.

    Now would Las Vegas consider him for their top8? idk would have to look at other team’s protected lists.

    I am surprised you think the whole team plays at one time!

    It is actually separate lines based on situation. 😉

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Just don’t see how #1 is in the cards this year. Guessing it will be number 4, just outside the big 3.

    Very interesting article on draft pick value from another sport.

    Last year using all those picks on Talbot and Reinhart may prove costly in the long run as the prospect cupboard is bare and it was a deep draft.

    This year it might be fun to trade down and acquire more bullets, especially if the scouts are indeed as competent as they appeared to be when they finally got to pick. That is if the pick is 4 or below…why not trade down for more picks?

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15425540/a-look-won-draft-trading-game-first-night-nfl-draft

  64. teddyturnbuckle says:

    I agree the Oilers need to hold on to their picks this year. This whole rebuild has been a drafting disaster and a bunch of sideway moves for valuable picks. The team is 29th and needs prospects to pull out of this hole. I’m not sure how its possible to finish 10 years out of the playoffs and have next to nothing on the farm. Mc David is young so there is time to build a cluster around him. Not what people want to hear but our current group of stars isn’t getting it done so I’m not too worried about them.

  65. godot10 says:

    The Oilers need NHL players (two top 4 D mainly) more than they need prospects.

    And the Oilers need to try to tempt the Bruins into taking one of the early thirds this year as compensation for Chiarelli, instead of 2017’s 2nd.

  66. john says:

    Bohologo,

    fellow gooner here.. i hate to be negative about leicester, cuz i’ve loved their season too, but it should be noted they probably cheated to get out of the championship a couple years ago (i think FFP is designed to keep rich clubs insulated from billionaire competitors):

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/apr/11/leicester-city-finances-football-league-financial-fair-play-investigation

  67. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers need NHL players (two top 4 D mainly) more than they need prospects.

    And the Oilers need to try to tempt the Bruins into taking one of the early thirds this year as compensation for Chiarelli, instead of 2017’s 2nd.

    Agreed on trying to get the Bruins to take a 3rd.
    Agreed they need two top 4D and probably a RW if they are trading Eberle and/or Yakupov.
    They also need prospects because of the possible expansion draft and moving out some vets. Need cheap replacements to fill in.

    Why can’t they accomplish all of the above? Trade down from #4 and grab your pick, Chychrun, who probably will be around at #7, and pick up an extra 2nd if you can in the process. Then you can really afford to give up a 3rd this year to Boston.

  68. papa96 says:

    Hi LT, it’s been a while, but I read your blog a lot. I agree with your comments about left shooting versus right shooting D-men for the Oilers.

    Maybe this is a dumb question, but given that most US players who are right-handed shoot right, and most Canadian players who are right-handed shoot left, has any Canadian coach at the junior level or higher ever made a determined effort to convert right-hand dominant players who shoot left to being RH shooters?

  69. rickithebear says:

    Dmen top 30 in HSCA and PKGA
    Top 150 PK TOI D
    and
    Top 225 EVTOI D

    Top 5 in both: 1D
    Josh Manson
    top 60 Comp
    #4 HSCA D
    35 PKGA D

    top 20 in both: 2D
    Lindholm
    top 60 comp
    #6 HSCA D
    #16 PKGA D

    M. Weber
    3rd/4th comp
    #20 HSCA D
    #9 HSCA D

    TOP 30 in Both 4D
    Ekholm
    upper 2nd
    #8 HSCA D
    #30 PKGA D

    Ellis
    Bot 2nd comp
    #13 HSCA D
    #29 PKGA D

    Doumolin
    top 10 comp
    #28 HSCA D
    #18 PKGA D

    Polak
    bottom 3rd comp
    #29 HSCA D
    #27 PKGA D

    Top 40 in each 1 D
    Davidson
    Bot 2nd comp
    #37 HSCA D
    #13 PKGA D

    Top 50 in each
    Larsson
    1st comp
    #15 HSCA D
    #50 PKGA D

    Niskanen
    1st comp
    #32 HSCA D
    #51 PKGA D

    Gunnarson
    2nd comp
    #34 HSCA D
    #48 PK GA D

    Orpik
    bottom 3rd comp
    #45 HSCA D
    #26 PKGA D

    Top 60 in both 10D
    Stoner
    4th comp
    #11 HSCA D
    #56 PKGA D

    Martinez
    2nd comp
    #35 HSCA D
    #53 PKGA D

    Stralman
    upper 2nd comp
    #38 HSCA D
    #58 PKGA D

    Petry
    2nd comp
    #44 HSCA D
    #55 PKGA D

    Alzner
    1st comp
    #53 HSCA D
    #35 PKGA D

    Liles
    2nd comp
    #55 HSCA D
    #5 PKGA D

    Lovejoy
    Upr 1st comp
    #56 HSC AD
    #24 PKGA D

    Klefbom
    Upr 1st comp
    #57 HSCA D
    #17 PKGA D

    Muzzin
    2nd comp
    #58 HSC A D
    #40 PKGA D

    Holzer
    3rd/4th comp D
    #59 HSCA D
    #2 PKAG D

    —————————————————–

    K. millers Career
    2md/3rd comp
    #20 HSCA AD
    #40 PKGA D

  70. Mustard Tiger says:

    papa96:
    Hi LT, it’s been a while, but I read your blog a lot. I agree with your comments about left shooting versus right shooting D-men for the Oilers.

    Maybe this is a dumb question, but given that most US players who are right-handed shoot right, and most Canadian players who are right-handed shoot left, has any Canadian coach at the junior level or higher ever made a determined effort to convert right-hand dominant players who shoot left to being RH shooters?

    This would not happen, because by the time players are at the Junior level, they have been shooting the same way for 12 years already. Much too late to switch.

    And who says right handed players should be shooting right? Calling it left/right is sort of silly anyway, because a left handed shooter will primarily have his stick only in his right hand anyway.

    I’m “right-handed” (write, shoot a basketball, throw a baseball with my right hand) but golf, hockey, and swinging a baseball bat are all done “left-handed” for me.

  71. Professor Q says:

    Mustard Tiger,

    I think they’ve done studies on this, actually. You can actually train your muscles and brain to be ambidextrous.

  72. Professor Q says:

    papa96:
    Hi LT, it’s been a while, but I read your blog a lot. I agree with your comments about left shooting versus right shooting D-men for the Oilers.

    Maybe this is a dumb question, but given that most US players who are right-handed shoot right, and most Canadian players who are right-handed shoot left, has any Canadian coach at the junior level or higher ever made a determined effort to convert right-hand dominant players who shoot left to being RH shooters?

    I still will never understand that.

  73. stush18 says:

    papa96:
    Hi LT, it’s been a while, but I read your blog a lot. I agree with your comments about left shooting versus right shooting D-men for the Oilers.

    Maybe this is a dumb question, but given that most US players who are right-handed shoot right, and most Canadian players who are right-handed shoot left, has any Canadian coach at the junior level or higher ever made a determined effort to convert right-hand dominant players who shoot left to being RH shooters?

    I read somewhere that Americans shoot right because they play baseball growing up, determining their handedness.

    You would need to switch the hands early on, and even then I’m more inclined to believe you cannot choose your handedness, just how proficient you are at different ones.

    Be interesting to see a switch hitter hockey player tho.

    I actually have played with a few guys who switch there hands around when taking faceoffs so they are always drawing towards the corner with power. All you have to do is tie them up or win it forward then because they usually can’t switch their hands

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stush18: I read somewhere that Americans shoot right because they play baseball growing up, determining their handedness.

    You would need to switch the hands early on, and even then I’m more inclined to believe you cannot choose your handedness, just how proficient you are at different ones.

    Be interesting to see a switch hitter hockey player tho.

    I actually have played with a few guys who switch there hands around when taking faceoffs so they are always drawing towards the corner with power. All you have to do is tie them up or win it forward then because they usually can’t switch their hands

    I think Woodguy wrote that here. But I don’t get that argument. Tons of players in baseball throw right and bat left.

  75. GCW_69 says:

    If Edmonton wants to keep its offer sheet options open for next season without giving up number 32 this season, they should be offering 2 of these 4 picks to Boston:

    No. 62 overall
    No. 85 overall (Florida pick)
    No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)
    No. 122 overall

    Boston might take it as they get the picks a year earlier and who knows were Edmonton will finish next year. If they did, then the Oilers could offer up to ~$7.3M on an offer sheet this summer.

  76. GCW_69 says:

    G Money:
    Last year I assumed we would not pick 1OV so paid little attention to the whole McEichel business in the leadup.

    So we had a dinner party that night (mostly non hockey interested people) and I’d sneak off now and then to check the results, hoping we’d get Hanifin.

    Both the sneaking off and the drinking (and general sense of cheer) picked up markedly once the lottery was won!

    Like last year, I just assume we won’t get 1OV this year, paying little attention to Matthews/Laine, and I’m still trying to convince my wife we should have a dinner party tomorrow.

    But I assure you, I’m a scientist, and not superstitious in the least.Not at all. Nope.

    LOL

    I pretty much did the same. Didn’t pay any attention and was out with family when all of a sudden my phone lit up with texts from pissed off Leaf fans. I could not believe it.

    This year, I plan to pretty much do the same. The odds are sooo long I would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.

  77. GCW_69 says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers need NHL players (two top 4 D mainly) more than they need prospects.

    And the Oilers need to try to tempt the Bruins into taking one of the early thirds this year as compensation for Chiarelli, instead of 2017’s 2nd.

    I think it takes a 3rd plus another pick given the Bruins don’t see to be interested in doing Chiarelli any favours. The Oilers are going to need to make it an offer they can’t refuse. To keep the offer sheet possibility open, its probably worth an overpay excluding paying #32 this season.

  78. GCW_69 says:

    neojanus:
    Poor Boudreau. I think this is a terrible move by the Ducks. They dominated the league for most of the season and got beat by one of the best defensive teams in the west and a very good goalie.

    Teams are far too quick to relieve good coaches after slightly underachieving in a very competitive conference.

    The Ducks roster is flawed a little bit in that there is too much performance pressure on two players and in playoff hockey, that can be stifled easily by the likes of Ellis, Weber, Josi, etc etc.

    Ah well, the Senators will enjoy these spoils next year because Boudreau is a very good coach.

    Too bad they didn’t pull the plug on him last season. I would have preferred him to TMac. Ottawa is going to get a very good coach.

  79. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    GCW_69,

    He’s so good, if I’m the owner of the Las Vegas franchise, I’m giving him a long term contract now and telling him to enjoy his sabbatical.

  80. Caramel Batman says:

    stush18: I read somewhere that Americans shoot right because they play baseball growing up, determining their handedness.

    You would need to switch the hands early on, and even then I’m more inclined to believe you cannot choose your handedness, just how proficient you are at different ones.

    Be interesting to see a switch hitter hockey player tho.

    I actually have played with a few guys who switch there hands around when taking faceoffs so they are always drawing towards the corner with power. All you have to do is tie them up or win it forward then because they usually can’t switch their hands

    It’s the other way around. Way more Canadians hit left than Americans. About 2/3 of major league hitters hit right, but basically every Canadian major league player hits left.

  81. Caramel Batman says:

    Right handed people should hit right and shoot left. The reason it’s called shooting left isn’t because it is for lefties, but because they play on the left side of the ice.

  82. Caramel Batman says:

    Also, it isn’t true that most Americans shoot right. I just looked up the first five guys on this list (http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/nationality/active-american-nhl-players-career-stats.html) and they all shoot left.

  83. Showerhead says:

    G Money,

    GCW_69,

    Ha, I love these stories.

    Mine: I was visiting a friend to work on a community project we were working on. She and I had a bunch of interviews to sort through on my phone so I put it in airplane mode – less notifications means less interruptions, right? Anyway, as soon as we were done, I reconnected it and BOOM – angry texts from every non-Oilers-fan I know.

    The problem with this scene was that my friend is not a hockey fan. She had never heard of Connor McDavid. The other problem with this scene is that my particular method of celebration started with a spin-hug and confused our friendship for the rest of summer 2015.

    I do not know what this means for lottery 2016 – whether I should spend it with friends or locked up at home.

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