HERE COMES SUMMER!

The excitement of the draft lottery has passed, and now we can discuss the offseason with all of the pieces in place. The drop (by two spots) will have a major impact on Peter Chiarelli’s discussions, because the draft pick has less value.

  • Peter Chiarelli: “What’s exciting with the second tier is that there’s a lot of defencemen and there’s a lot of good-sized forwards. Those are two needs we’re looking at so we’re going to look a little more closely. If we keep the pick or we move it and get another pick, there’s still a lot of those good players that are big or are defenders.” Source

We know the list of forwards and defense well—F’s Dubois, Tkachuk, possibly Logan Brown—and D’s Olli Juolevi, Mikhail Sergachev and Jakob Chychrun. I think the Oilers would lean toward Dubois and Juolevi from each list, but that is just a guess. I would also guess that if Edmonton does in fact stay at No. 4, they will take a forward. Trading back? Probably a defender.

As the sun rises on another beautiful day in the capital, some verbal has the pick in play.

  • Peter Chiarelli: “As a manager, you have to be available to anything that comes forward with regard to improving your team. You could take a position not to move a pick and just call it a day, but I want to improve this team and we’ve drafted a lot of players in our group right now and I think it’s an opportunity to look at a lot of different options with players that are already NHL players. I’ll certainly look at those options.” Source

Let’s have a team-by-team look at trading down and some of the names that could be in play (including selected playoff teams):

  • No. 5 Vancouver Canucks: RD Chris Tanev is a very good blue, but the difference in one spot is not enough to make this work—and the Canucks can’t afford to be dealing their top D.
  • No. 6 Calgary Flames: RD Dougie Hamilton is no doubt a target, but the Flames can probably grab Logan Brown or Matt Tkachuk—or possibly Pierre-Luc Dubois—at No. 6. Plus, and this is going to be a growing trend, there is every chance Clayton Keller slips into the conversation around the time Vancouver and Calgary pick. I don’t see an obvious trade here, either.
  • No. 7 Arizona Coyotes: I like Michael Stone, but the Coyotes obvious link to a high pick is now a lock to begin his NHL career in Toronto (it will be tough to keep him there, as the Coyotes will be going hard after him as soon as any OS window opens. I am writing that for two reasons: to show how silly it is, and to point out how silly it was for Leafs Nation to be doing exactly that thing one year ago. Let’s all place nice, shall we?). No fit here.
  • No. 8 Buffalo Sabres: I could see Tim Murray and his specs being interested in climbing up to No. 4 overall, but the perfect fit (Rasmus Ristolainen) isn’t going anywhere and Mark Pysyk isn’t enough (imo) to move down. A slight crack for negotiation, but Pysyk isn’t established enough to warrant this kind of investment (trading down for No. 8 and Pysyk, with No. 4 going to Buffalo). The first truly interesting conversation, though.

  • No. 9 Montreal Canadiens. Now things get interesting. If the Habs have truly lost their minds, then P.K. Subban could be in play. This is the point where you begin to hate me. Look, I value these young No. 1 overalls a lot and have been especially vocal in my support of RNH over the years. That said, if Subban is in fact available, Nuge, the No. 4 overall, Darnell Nurse and Benoit Pouliot for Subban, No. 9 overall and Lars Eller might make sense. The money is not quite even, Edmonton takes on about $1.5 million. Too rich? Are you sure? Either way, I do not see a trade for Subban that doesn’t involve Taylor Hall, and Habs fans keep chanting Nathan Beaulieu and that isn’t going to get it done.
  • No. 10 Colorado Avalanche. Possibly the most attractive team, because the management is certifiably addled based on previous decisions. RD Tyson Barrie might be the prize among all available puck movers, and trading down six spots as part of the price (NO idea what Roy would want, and there is no real sense in identifying the team’s obvious weaknesses. Colorado could trade anything for anything, they are in real danger im0).
  • No. 11 New Jersey Devils. Did you see the look on Ray Shero’s face when the Devils didn’t move up? Really, NHL management people, between Brian Burke not understanding that luck is random (good thing they called it luck!) and Shero’s inability to decipher the really obvious, I am beginning to wonder about these people. Some nice things here (Damon Severson, David Schlemko) but not enough to move the needle—and Adam Larsson is staying put I would guess.
  • No. 12 Ottawa Senators. If they are willing to deal Erik Karlsson, then the Subban template should be used for dealing with the Sens. I refuse to believe Ottawa (or Montreal) are that crazy.
  • No. 13 Carolina Hurricanes. A very nice fit here, as Justin Faulk would be a terrific add for Edmonton—and the gap from 13 to 4 is substantial, so this would be a bigger portion of the deal. Interesting idea, worth further consideration.
  • No. 14 Boston Bruins. Hurts me to say it, but the Bruins don’t have a defenseman who is both young enough to be a target and good enough to be considered. That is not good. Boston does have the SJS first-round pick, but I do not see the value in dealing No. 4 for No. 14 and what could be No. 30.
  • Anaheim Ducks: I am going to mention a few playoff teams. If the Ducks are looking to deal one of their RFA blur (Lindholm, Vatanen) perhaps trading WAY up in round one has appeal. Lots of Ducks types in that top area.
  • New York Islanders: Garth Snow wants value for Travis Hamonic, dealing way up to No. 4 overall might help get this long rumored deal done. NYI have only five picks—with just one in the first three rounds—so a trade involving multiple picks is also possible.

For me, these are the really strong options:

  1. Colorado Avalanche. Chiarelli has to make a call for sure, and as I said above the ask could be any number of things. Complete wild card.
  2. Montreal Canadiens. If they are entertaining trading P.K. Subban, Peter Chiarelli has to be in on it. The pick would be part of it, but this would be an earthquake deal.
  3. Anaheim Ducks. A trade built around Vatanen and Anaheim’s first for No. 4 and something of value has appeal, and would given Anaheim another quality player coming up through the ranks.
  4. Carolina Hurricanes: Justin Faulk is a fascinating solution. Depends on price of course.
  5. NY Islanders. Important not to overvalue the pick, but trading up for a Hamonic has to involve Edmonton at least getting the Islanders first-round pick back. Hamonic does not have a high skill set, that is what you are giving up at No. 4 overall.

We should not assume anything, Edmonton has to decide on their own list and the player at No. 4 may just be too good to trade away.

  • Peter Chiarelli: “We have our meetings starting Monday, our amateur meetings. Then we have our combines at the end of May, beginning of June so those are the next two things. There’s still some viewings left in the chase for the Memorial Cup. There’s still some top players playing.” Source

I published my top 100 yesterday, and my list is based heavily on math. Hajek was No. 100, Sean Day is not on the list, lots of discrepancies in my list if you are comparing it to a more traditional list. If you want to know what the Oilers are thinking, the Craig Button list (final one not out yet) is likely a better plan. As a for instance, here is Edmonton’s final draft board from last season compared to Button’s final list:

  • No. 1 Connor McDavid (Button: No. 1)
  • No. 117 Caleb Jones (Button: No. 81)
  • No. 124 Ethan Bear (Button: No. 77)
  • No. 154 John Marino (Button: Not ranked)
  • No. 208 Miroslav Svoboda (Button: Not ranked)
  • No. 209 Ziyat Paigin (Button: No. 86)

When Button goes Dubois—Brown—Tkachuk—Juolevi in and around where Edmonton picks, I think we should pay attention to it. At least some of the time, his views align with what Oilers’ brass is thinking. If I had to guess today what Edmonton’s board would look like tomorrow morning, it would be this:

  1. C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A).
  2. W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga).
  3. R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga).
  4. C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL).
  5. LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL).
  6. L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL).
  7. C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL).
  8. LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL).
  9. LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL).
  10. L Tyson Jost, Penticton Vees (BCJHL).

That is my guess. Edmonton probably likes the top seven players on this list in a big way. I don’t have a fabulous feel for the defense, but unless they like someone like Jake Bean or Dante Fabbro more than the numbers suggest, I am pretty content with this list. I won’t quote the article (Matty deserves the clicks and it is very weird to see his name on an Edmonton Sun article) but Chiarelli talks about Tkachuk and Dubois here, plus a connection between Logan Brown and the Oilers. Edmonton will have plenty of inside information on Brown for the draft. I am pleased to see them looking OHL, that is the play here.

More to come.

 

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126 Responses to "HERE COMES SUMMER!"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Here’s something else that Chiarelli said last night:

    “I’m open to anything,” Chiarelli said. “There’s a lot of good players available. There’s not a lot of premier defencemen available.”

    Source (its item #13)

    Not a lot of premier defencemen available.

    That’s ok, the difference two Good Actual NHL RH Dmen would make to this team is astronomical. A premier guy who be great, but its certainly not required.

    I think Chia’s quote means that LT is right and the crazy in MTL and OTT isn’t quite as crazy as we hoped.

    COL though, that crazy is shining on and on and on.

    Call Sakic all day every day Pete and close the deal the second you can.

  2. Stud Muffin says:

    I’m heartbroken that we won’t get to see Laine on McDavids wing.
    Might as well just trade the pick now.
    I’d make The pick,Eberle,Nurse and maybe RNH available if we could get the right deal.

  3. wheatnoil says:

    “More to come”

    Is this the new “We wait…”?

  4. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil:
    “More to come”

    Is this the new “We wait…”?

    Haha. My mind is whirling, so I stopped but there is more to come. 🙂

  5. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: The best outcome of being @ #4, is there is no chance that our pick gets gifted top-6 time on our team next season: that’s a lot of progress right there

    – And because there is no temptation to “draft-sink-swim-go-at-‘er” we can use the pick to actually improve the team next year, vs giving a rookie a spot because we don’t have anyone better.

  6. Frank the dog says:

    LT you honestly think that a team with Subban and without all those players would field a stronger lineup on opening day?
    Just seems too many emerging/good players for a king with question marks.

  7. Pescador says:

    Morning all, thanks to everyone for making yesterday a great day on the interwebs especially our magnificent host, shout out to Unwashed for that afternoon “tidbit”, & JDi™ who won the pun-off.
    For all of the posters advocating for the Oil to draft & develop a Dman, a couple points to consider;
    1. The organization is terrible at development. Fin.
    2. Connor McDavid, this team needs to compete NOW, during his ELC.
    3. Teenage D-men take time, I realize there are some exceptions but that does not apply to the d-men available in this draft. IMO
    4. Can we all agree the Oilers most pressing need is Veteran help on defense?
    If the play is keep the pick then I hope it’s Dubios.
    Have a great day

  8. DRFNsuperstar says:

    If everyone deducts points from Tkachuk because he plays with two NHL ready line mates how doesn’t Juolevi get deducted the same? Marner runs that powerplay.

    Brian Wilde is right the stars may have perfectly aligned…to F over the habs. A sour taste in their mouthes going into the offseason because they have realized their team is Price, a high scoring French Canadian centreman sitting in the oilers draft spot, and a love for Galchenyuk’s old teammate. 4th overall, Eberle, Yakupov for Subban. 3 for 1.

  9. dustrock says:

    LT I think the problem with this draft is after the top 3, you could try probably 10 different players to pick at 4-6.

    So how much value does a team put on moving up 5-10 spots to #4?

    Maybe Roy wants Dubois, who knows.

    Side note if the Oilers traded for Subban as you mention above and still get to grab Keller or Chychrun that would be a huge win for me.

    Don’t understand why Keller isn’t higher on more teams’ lists.

  10. dustrock says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    If everyone deducts points from Tkachuk because he plays with two NHL ready line mates how doesn’t Juolevi get deducted the same? Marner runs that powerplay.

    Brian Wilde is right the stars may have perfectly aligned…to F over the habs. A sour taste in their mouthes going into the offseason because they have realized their team is Price, a high scoring French Canadian centreman sitting in the oilers draft spot, and a love for Galchenyuk’s old teammate. 4th overall, Eberle, Yakupov for Subban. 3 for 1.

    I do rank Juolevi below Chychrun and Sergachev for that exact reason. Imagine what either of these 2 could have done playing on the Knights. Sergachev had 17 goals. Chychrun was basically PPG after December.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Why do people want to spend 9 million on two years of a 25 point center. I know it’s someone else’s money but I wouldn’t want to try to justify that to the boss. Also I really hope they are not looking at trading that pick for Hamonic. That is too steep for a guy that would be really hard to trade anywhere else

  12. flyfish1168 says:

    Frank the dog:
    LT you honestly think that a team with Subban and without all those players would field a stronger lineup on opening day?
    Just seems too many emerging/good players for a king with question marks.

    I concur with you. Team game where you need depth. PC once said hard to get good young players. Now we have some and we are trading a few away for one good one with question marks. Don’t make since.

    If there was no question marks about PK, Bergevin would stop all these rumor nonsense to ease PK mind. JMHO

  13. Alpine says:

    Actually, between Petry, Marincin, Klefbom, and Davidson, it looks like the oilers aren’t awful at developing defensemen, provided they were good draft choices in the first place.

    It’s identifying which ones they retain or acquire for their roster which remains the Oilers’ largest issue.

  14. flyfish1168 says:

    I would we keep the 4th overall pick. We can leave this player in junior and let him develop properly.
    We need t also accumulate good players that are exempt from the expansion draft.

  15. MrEd says:

    Hall-Dry-Kassian
    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-RNH-xxx
    Hendricks-xxx-Letestu
    Pak.

    Sek-Fayne
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-xxx
    Gryba

    Talbot
    xxx
    ——————————–
    Yak, Korp, Reinhart are available to trade.
    Keep the 4th.
    2-3 UFA signings.
    ——————————–

  16. Richard S.S. says:

    Right now the Oilers have Sekera, Fayne and kids on Defense. That’s not good enough. Of Klefbom, Davidson, Nurse and Reinhart, who’s good enough right now to play on the top pairing of any of the top ten teams. No one will be good enough this year or next. On the scale of 1-10, the Oilers’ Defense barely reaches a 2. Suggestions are all well and fine, so don’t piss on someone’s ideas. No one truly knows what value one GMs’ assets have to other GMs. No one really knows what Chiarelli is after, probably anything.

  17. murphy says:

    Picking dubois and keeping him in junior for two more years is a great play that a mature organization would execute…… But we have pressing needs that have to be addressed.

    Montreal would love a big french center, they don’t need him right away as their center situation is currently decent with gally, plecs and eller. But plecs game will start to trend down in the next few years. My proposal;
    Eberle, pouliot, musil, and the 4th for subban and the 9th.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    MrEd:
    Hall-Dry-Kassian
    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-RNH-xxx
    Hendricks-xxx-Letestu
    Pak.

    Sek-Fayne
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-xxx
    Gryba

    Talbot
    xxx
    ——————————–
    Yak, Korp, Reinhart are available to trade.
    Keep the 4th.
    2-3 UFA signings.
    ——————————–

    If Kassian starts on the 1st line and Fayne on the top pairing, then Chia has pissed away the summer.

  19. Rondo says:

    If Oilers do keep their pick I think it will come down to Juolevi and Dubois.

    Luckily Juolevi is still playing hockey and Oilers will be watching. According to scouts watching the playoffs Juolevi is playing some of his best hockey. No other D-man has reach the level Juolevi has.

    Dubois is going to look good at the combine which is pretty much useless at the physical part.

    If Oilers think Dubois ceiling is 1st line winger and think Juolevi ceiling is top pairing D who do you pick?

  20. Rosco says:

    Lowetide said “Nuge, the No. 4 overall, Darnell Nurse and Benoit Pouliot for Subban, No. 9 overall and Lars Eller might make sense.”

    Like you LT I am a huge fan of the Nuge… But this all day. This would be an astronomical change to the core of this team. Would swapping out Pouliot for Yakupov make the money work a little better? Would the risk (unlocking Yak) be too great?

    Hall Drai UFA
    Maroon McDavid Ebs
    Pouliot Eller Pak
    Hendricks Letest Kassian

    Klef Subban
    Sekera UFA
    Davidson Fayne

  21. Lowetide says:

    Rosco:
    Lowetide said “Nuge, the No. 4 overall, Darnell Nurse and Benoit Pouliot for Subban, No. 9 overall and Lars Eller might make sense.”

    Like you LT I am a huge fan of the Nuge… But this all day. This would be an astronomical change to the core of this team. Would swapping out Pouliot for Yakupov make the money work a little better? Would the risk (unlocking Yak) be too great?

    Hall Drai UFA
    Maroon McDavid Ebs
    Pouliot Eller Pak
    Hendricks Letest Kassian

    Klef Subban
    Sekera UFA
    Davidson Fayne

    Yes, Yak over Pouliot makes it work better money wise, but I felt Montreal would need more.

  22. MrEd says:

    Reinhart for Pysyk and a pick.
    Buffalo pick, Korp and Yak to MTL for Eller and McCarron.

    Sign one of Brouwer, Okposo or Stepniak.
    Sign Demers.
    Sign UFA goaler.

    Done! 🙂

  23. kinger_OIL says:

    Richard S.S.,

    – Yes Richard: Klef needs to play with a vet, not mentoring and carrying a player with less than the 100 games he’s played and expected to do so in top-4: Thats another Klef DNF from disastor D.

    – Sek needs an upgrade on Fayne

    – Put one of the kids with Fayne, and if the kids start stepping up, move Fayne at trade deadline

  24. murphy says:

    I would honestly rather give up dr drai then the nuge. The nuge was the best oiler two years ago and has the two way game you need to win.

    Maybe we don’t do the #4 for #9 and instead offer a package like dr drai, sekera, musil and a 3rd rounder for subban.

    Then the oil pick dubois, let him develop in junior/minors for 2-3 years. This would require us acquiring a 3rd line center this summer which should be do-able through free agency or targeting high cap teams (andrew shaw heres looking at you).

  25. Ice Sage says:

    Pescador:
    Morning all, thanks to everyone for making yesterday a great day on the interwebs especially our magnificent host, shout out to Unwashed for that afternoon “tidbit”, & JDi™ who won the pun-off.
    For all of the posters advocating for the Oil to draft & develop a Dman, a couple points to consider;
    1. The organization is terrible at development. Fin.
    2. Connor McDavid, this team needs to compete NOW, during his ELC.
    3. Teenage D-men take time, I realize there are some exceptions but that does not apply to the d-men available in this draft. IMO
    4. Can we all agree the Oilers most pressing need is Veteran help on defense?
    If the play is keep the pick then I hope it’s Dubios.
    Have a great day

    Agreed on all, fish-man, except the ‘Veteran’ help on D. The Oil need 1 or 2 emerging modern D-men e.g. Vatanen, Barrie, Faulk. No more under-mobile 30-ish ‘Veteran’ Fayne-types… the D game has changed! For this reason, I’m wary of Harmonic, too.

    The #4 spot is a red meat Rorschach spot for us Lowetidians!

  26. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I don’t know LT, I think the draft lottery might have increased our odds of trading with AZ. I don’t think they like the price of trading for Matthews, but I think they would also like Tkachuck and I don’t think he falls to 8. They might trade the pick plus Stone for the 4th… We might have to add a limited sweetener but not much.

  27. gd says:

    Columbus’s cap structure is a mess, and need a C more than anything, especially now with getting Puljujarvi. From their point of view is Leon not exactly what they need especially at his cap hit. Does the Leon for Seth trade make sense for us? It looks to me like PLD can be a reasonable Leon long-term replacement.

  28. flea says:

    Does Columbus need another winger? Maybe they want Dubois more than Puljujarvi, and he slides to 4. Then the oilers would be tempted to make that pick I’m sure. Bet this trade doesn’t go down until draft day so they know who’s available at 4.

  29. MrEd says:

    Jethro Tull,

    With the line matching and zone start consideration these days I personally don’t think that the traditional way of thinking of lines and pairings 1,2,3 really applies. If Sek-Fayne can saw off for 22min a night then they’re good. If a capable UFA RW vet is obtained then Kass with Dry and Hall makes for a heavy line and there are coaching options.

  30. digger50 says:

    Winnipeg was not mentioned. Perhaps they want to go big this year and we trade down for thier number 16 pick or wherever that second pick of theirs sits.

    We look at a young established d man from Winnipeg to help right away and pick a right handed d man such as Fabbro or Charlie M for help tomorrow. Thoughts?

  31. fifthcartel says:

    Brian Wilde seems very confident the Habs could move up to 4 from 9 but I can’t see what the Oilers would be interested in.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I don’t know LT, I think the draft lottery might have increased our odds of trading with AZ.I don’t think they like the price of trading for Matthews, but I think they would also like Tkachuck and I don’t think he falls to 8. They might trade the pick plus Stone for the 4th…We might have to add a limited sweetener but not much.

    Arizona is an interesting team, suspect they would use picks in an effort to trade up. Stone is a pretty important piece for them, too. If they were dealing up for Matthews? Different story.

  33. Gret99zky says:

    #4 pick to Calgary for #6 and Wideman?

  34. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    #4 pick to Calgary for #6 and Wideman?

    No, not for me. Wideman should come for free with some money retained (and that could happen).

  35. Gret99zky says:

    Chia’s going to need another whiteboard and a shitload of markers.

  36. Richard S.S. says:

    Last time I looked, the Oilers didn’t have a 2nd Round Pick in 2017. Traded to Boston for Chiarelli’s hire?
    What is the value of a #4 pick as a trade asset? Does being able to draft C Pierre-Luc Dubois have more value for Montreal? Lowetide, you need to Have someone from Montreal on your show to ask that question> Maybe you drive up the demand.

  37. Oil Fan 99 says:

    This will be such an interesting off season for the Oilers. So many possibilities. Yes the Oilers are in need of RHD but they won’t be offering table scraps. There are some attractive options to other teams that will potentially make their team better. It maybe hard to see some of these players leave but the Oilers will have a more balanced team. With potential free agents like Lucic or Stamkos the idea of playing with McDavid maybe to intriguing to pass up.

  38. leftwinger9 says:

    This is what my ideal lineup would look like:
    Hall/RNH/Drai
    Maroon/McD/Yak
    Pouliot/Shaw/Kassian
    Hendo/Letestu/Khaira
    Sekera/Hamonic
    Klefbom/Barrie
    Davidson/Fayne
    Gryba
    Talbot/Veteran Backup

    That assumes signing Shaw, some form of Eberle for Hamonic and the 4th + Reinhart for the 10th + Barrie. Leaves Brossiot and Nurse in the minors where they belong.

    That’s a playoff team. A competitive playoff team.

  39. Gret99zky says:

    Just looking at the D drafted from 3 teams since 1995.

    Player (NHL games)

    Windsor Spitfires: Cam Fowler (421), Ryan Ellis (289), Jesse Blacker (1), Mike Weber (352), Tim Gleason (727), D.J. Smith (45)

    (Projected #6) LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

    London Knights: Nikita Zadorov (89), Olli Maatta (172), Scott Harrington (25), Danny Syvret (59), Kyle Quincey (499), Marc Methot (511), Dennis Wideman (758), Dan Jancevski (9), John Erskine (491), Alex Henry (177), Evgeny Korolev (42)

    (Projected #7-#8) LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL)

    Sarnia Sting: Mark Katic (11).

    (Projected #9) LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

  40. Zack says:

    I really hope Chiarelli can acquire some vet talent from the UFA pool.

    Backes, Brouwer, Ladd (All fit the PC mold, lots of veteran leadership)
    Boyle, Campbell, Demers

    Even adding one of these guys to the roster would be a huge boost. That fourth pick becomes a much greater asset if there’s an expansion. Come draft day/draft day eve, it’s value will be the highest.

    It will be a very interesting summer indeed. Lots to work with and a lot to gain.

  41. godot10 says:

    Gret99zky:
    #4 pick to Calgary for #6 and Wideman?

    Wideman has negative value. That plus the referees now hate him. He is an uber-expensive barely competent 3rd pairing D. He is a horrible fit for the OIlers. The Oilers have Davidson, Fayne, Nurse, Reinhart, and perhaps Gryba if they re-sign him who can be competent 3rd pairing D.

  42. Woogie63 says:

    If we hold onto the draft pick, in my mind it comes down to get the fourth best forward OR the First pick at the best defensemen. I would take the BEST available Dman. With a little license i looked at the last 15 drafts and compared the 4th forward vs. the best dman (tried to stay in the top 10 picks for the selections)

    IMHO the dman is the better pick 11/15 times.

    year 4th best Fwd Best Dman

    2015, Marner – Hannifin
    2014, Dal Colle – Ekblad
    2013, Lindholm – Jones
    2012, Grigorenko – Lindholm
    2011, Strome – Larsson
    2010, Niederreiter – Gudbranson
    2009, Schenn – Hedman/E-Larsson
    2008, Boeker – Doughhty
    2007, Ganger – Hickey/Alzner
    2006, Kessel – Johnson
    2005, Brule – Johnson
    2004, Wheeler – Barker
    2003, Vanek – Coburn
    2002, Taticek – Bouwmeester
    2001, Weiss – Komisarek

  43. Westchester Oil says:

    Great analysis LT.

    I’d much rather have us trade with Colorado for Barrie then have to give up more assets to take PK and his massive contract.

    Any idea what we need to give to sweeten the pot to get Barrie and their 10th? 4th plus Pouiliot? Yak? Reinhart?

  44. Loyal2theoil says:

    Toews was considered the most complete pick of his draft. Was taken #3. Had a Very similar scouting report as Dubois. Not saying Dubois will be Toews or in that league, but those scoutin reports are similar..

  45. Gret99zky says:

    godot10: Wideman has negative value.That plus the referees now hate him.He is an uber-expensive barely competent 3rd pairing D.He is a horrible fit for the OIlers.The Oilers have Davidson, Fayne, Nurse, Reinhart, and perhaps Gryba if they re-sign him who can be competent 3rd pairing D.

    Fair enough.

    Wideman played 80 games in 2014-15, 56 pts (21 on the PP), with only 34 PIM that year, and he’s a veteran.

    Just considering some RT shooting PP options. He may play tough against his former team.

    Not sure what the refs can do.

    I don’t think we get Demers this summer, so looking for other options. But like LT says, he can probably be had for free.

  46. John Chambers says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Great analysis LT.

    I’d much rather have us trade with Colorado for Barrie then have to give up more assets to take PK and his massive contract.

    Any idea what we need to give to sweeten the pot to get Barrie and their 10th? 4th plus Pouiliot? Yak? Reinhart?

    I could foresee a deal around Edm and Col swapping picks with Edm throwing in Reinhart and maybe the 32 OV. Colorado gets a young cost-controlled D in return, a major upgrade at the draft table, and another selection at 32.

    That’s a deal I prefer as we give up no roster players of consequence.

    Another deal I would favour is swapping picks with Carolina with Edm adding RNH and Reinhart for Faulk and Viktor Rask. This way we still have three quality C’s and a top RH defender.

  47. Kagato says:

    Woogie63,

    I’m not quite sure I can agree with this analysis. I think if the best defenceman was chosen in the 1,2,3 hole, you’d need to at least bump down the forward rank.

    IE.

    2015, Marner – Hannifin
    2014, Bennett – Ekblad
    2013, Lindholm –Jones
    2012, Forsberg – Murray? (Not sure what to do in this year with mostly D being drafted in the top 10)
    2011, Strome – Larsson
    2010, Johansen – Gudbranson
    2009, E. Kane – Hedman/E-Larsson

    I think you have to take the BPA and if that player is a forward, then do it. Just my 2 cents though.

  48. neojanus says:

    I think the number 4 pick was the best thing to happen for the Oilers in all seriousness. Picks 1-3 are fantastic players without any doubt…. so good that the Oilers would have had no choice but to pick them if they had had the draft spot. The Oilers would have immediately had more forward options… and would likely fix virtually nothing on the d-side.

    That number 4 picks gives a pile of options to create trades that remain equally footed from team to team.

    Trading down for a d-man in the draft and plugging in a proper stalwart with one of our top end pieces is the best option.

    At the very least, we don’t have to listen to the eastern media moan all bloody year about how unfair it all is.

    I think Edmonton needs to seriously prod Montreal for an earthquake deal this week. There has never been a better time to get an impact d-man for years.

    If not MTL, then take advantage of COL’s lunacy and pry Barrie out. Not as earth shaking, but perhaps a more Machiavellian option.

    Would TB like Yak to give Drouin a fresh start?

    Matthews in Toronto probably puts an end to the Stamkos probability.

    Also, perhaps this is just me, I found O’Neill’s reaction to the Toronto win quite unprofessional. We know the bias is there, but have a modicum of objectivity. It lowered the intelligence quotient of that panel by at least 15 points.

    Can you imagine if Rishaug did something like that?

    I grow weary of the television media more and more every day.

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Gret99zky: Not sure what the refs can do.

    Not sure what more the refs can do that they aren’t doing already, you mean?

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    neojanus: Would TB like Yak to give Drouin a
    fresh start?

    Drouin’s fresh start is going nicely in TB. Yak doesn’t get us him.

    Matthews in Toronto probably puts an end to the Stamkos probability.

    Nope, it increases the chances. Why on earth would not go for having Mathews AND Stamkos?

  51. kinger_OIL says:

    leftwinger9,

    Hall/RNH/Drai
    Maroon/McD/Yak
    Pouliot/Shaw/Kassian
    Hendo/Letestu/Khaira
    Sekera/Hamonic
    Klefbom/Barrie
    Davidson/Fayne
    Gryba
    Talbot/Veteran Backup

    – Love this realistic roster. But Yak is gone sadly, even though thats dumb. Yak @ $2.5 > Ebs, and bet he scores more than Ebs: that’s an awesome 2nd line.

    – Sekera with a responsible D like Harmonic is great (but I don’t think they get him): even if they got a bona-fide LD to play with Sek, I’d go for a better LD than a weaker RD option than Harmonic.

    – Klef as #2 LD, with a puck mover also awesome (maybe Shattenkirk?)

    – Please no Nurse to start the year: Griff/Nurse as top line in AHL would be wonderful development

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    If everyone deducts points from Tkachuk because he plays with two NHL ready line mates how doesn’t Juolevi get deducted the same? Marner runs that powerplay.

    Brian Wilde is right the stars may have perfectly aligned…to F over the habs. A sour taste in their mouthes going into the offseason because they have realized their team is Price, a high scoring French Canadian centreman sitting in the oilers draft spot, and a love for Galchenyuk’s old teammate. 4th overall, Eberle, Yakupov for Subban. 3 for 1.

    I think the only way the Habs do the deal is with RNH and a dman. Would they accept Fayne? So the 4th, RNH, Yak and a dman for Subbsn, Eller and their 10th. I don’t know. They probably don’t do the deal if they have to swap out the 10th.

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Right now the Oilers have Sekera, Fayne and kids on Defense.That’s not good enough. Of Klefbom, Davidson, Nurse and Reinhart, who’s good enough right now to play on the top pairing of any of the top ten teams.No one will be good enough this year or next.On the scale of 1-10, the Oilers’ Defense barely reaches a 2.Suggestions are all well and fine, so don’t piss on someone’s ideas. No one truly knows what value one GMs’ assets have to other GMs.No one really knows what Chiarelli is after, probably anything.

    Totally agree with all this. Think you might be a bit generous giving our defence a 2 though. The group we ended the season with anyway. Vancouver has a brutal defence. I’m not even sure if there’s a word to describe how bad ours was at the end of the season.

  54. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    MrEd:
    Hall-Dry-Kassian
    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-RNH-xxx
    Hendricks-xxx-Letestu
    Pak.

    Sek-Fayne
    Klef-xxx
    Davidson-xxx
    Gryba

    Talbot
    xxx
    ——————————–
    Yak, Korp, Reinhart are available to trade.
    Keep the 4th.
    2-3 UFA signings.
    ——————————–

    That lineup would be terrible. Yak, Korp, Reinhart bring almost no value back.
    And if 2 or UFAs do sign here, you’re not going to land more than one premium one. Not nearly enough improvement.

  55. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Yesterday I said to talk to Carolina for #13 + D for #4 and something else. Carolina would love Dubois to replace Eric Staal and then they could break in Dubois and Lindholm behind Jordan Staal doing the heavy lifting for now. Carolina has a plethora of D prospects. Then hold Vancouver over a barrel and demand Tanev +#5 for #4 and something else. If they really want a 1C to take Henrik’s spot, they have to pay through the nose. Especially as they are a division rival.

    They may not pay that price, but I ask for it anyway. Interesting to see you mention it as well now, LT.

    That said, Faulk is not realistic. He is almost as valuable to them (right-handed, American, PP QB, sweetheart contract) as McDavid is to us.

    I’d be targeting instead someone like Fleury, etc. I’d ask for Hanifin, but I’m sure they would say no to that.

    Fleury +#13 for #4?

    Then move one of the other left-handed D in the system in a package for a right-hander like Hamonic or Barrie.

    I think there could be a couple of moves at least that are linked to the pick.

  56. pts2pndr says:

    Great post LT.
    My personal opinion is that taking Dubois at 4 is exactly what Edmonton should do! All his scouting says he has all the tools we have been missing , think Mark Messier. Big mean plays with an edge and has skill! Trade Eberle and Yak as required to fill the right D slots best as able Play Drai on RW and find a UFA centre for third line.Yak plus 3rd round pick for young Rd from Ducks. Money fits for Ducks. Eberle to NYI for Hamonic. The big deal pie in the sky type deals have huge risks to render the franchise in mediocre land for an extended period. Draft good players, Keep good players! This should be a great off season!

  57. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: Arizona is an interesting team, suspect they would use picks in an effort to trade up. Stone is a pretty important piece for them, too. If they were dealing up for Matthews? Different story.

    Matthew Tkachuk is also from Scottsdale. I could see a minor deal happening where they grab him. I don’t see all this “marketing” talk as being as important as some other people do, but a lot of people seem to forget that Tkachuk is a local boy as well, with all the focus on Matthews. Not only that, but Dad is an obvious connection. If anything HE would be more marketable than Matthews if you ask me.

    If Dubois is gone before #5, I could see the Canucks trading down to #7 to get something and take a LHD to add to their pool.

  58. Fog of Warts says:

    Personally, I’m a click-currency gold bug. I refuse to believe in this newfangled quasi-monetary central reserve. SHINY METAL DISKS. Accept no substitutes. Not clicks, not precision-engineered designer cellulose sheets, and not clam shells (not even iridescent glow-in-the-dark clam shells from planet Avatar, artfully drilled and leather-laced and directly redeemable in hair-twirling Amazonian nookie-wookie).

    Yesterday I listened to the following podcast while trying out my BBQ pizza recipe on an unfamiliar BBQ (disappointing—with just the two outside burners running full blast and the burner under the stone turned off so as not to make the crust crackery, it couldn’t keep the hood temperature above 450°F; for an 8-minute, New York–style pie this particular stone works best when preheated to 480°F before the pie strikes, and then heated hardly at all from below during the cook cycle, with a ferocious ambient heat from above to melt the salami into the percolating sauce—and yes, I’m aware that the Internet is bursting its lengthy belt with pie-oven MacGyver, this was just the first straight run; for those who haven’t kept up with the Boy Scout badge-requirements for “Chewy Cornicione”, a high strike temperature is required to achieve adequate steam release into the tiny CO2 voids before the dough firms up at rat-bubble scale—there’s actually a good reason you don’t see Remy try his paws in the pastry kitchen, besides which, that scene in the 3D-remake of Sleeper where the sticky cake dough overflows the cake pan practically had him climbing up the walls in rat terror and, except for extreme presence of mind, nearly upending his half-eaten XXL butter-floss—in human terms, this is basically what you get after Orville Redenbacher merges with Butterball Hydraulics, the junk food industry for rats—this being a very high bar—inherently requiring more mechanical-engineering biochemistry than Volume II-E of Modernist Cuisine).

    Well, it follows at a distance, but here it is:

    Leonard Wong on Honesty and Ethics in the Military

    The host of the show, Russ Roberts, lives in the category of people I disagree with strongly on some issues, yet can’t dismiss out of hand. People undervalue a good foil. I treasure voices I strongly disagree with, but can’t manage to dismiss out of hand (by no means is my dipshit orrery underpopulated—to keep the inner asteroid belt from bunching up into a rabbit-turd Ringworld, I had to crokinole Ted Cruz & Co. out beyond the Oort cloud—bon voyage and don’t call us, we’ll call you).

    I think click-calculus is a form of ethical fade, this is what the entire interview is about. Can you bullshit the paperwork all week long, and then show up on the battlefield with actual lives at stake and operate within 100% clear ethical margins? (Unlike Wong, I think humans are better at this than our egos wish to admit, though I suspect it’s not pretty nevertheless.)

    Where possible, I prefer to think in terms of being a net contributor in the big picture, and not overly worry myself about sharing the odd outbound link among friends (how many clicks, precisely, is a throw-away joke about a rat-audience 3D remake of Sleeper actually worth? As told from inside the cake pan? If you didn’t notice, look at that sentence again).

    ———

    Willis hit the nail on the head this morning, on a subject matter I debated with my brother over the phone for about an hour yesterday.

    Cult of Hockey: The NHLPA doesn’t care how much money Milan Lucic makes on his next deal

    The extra dimension that Willis failed to take on is whether the arbitration process got this particular memo, or whether it persists in assuming than every signed contract represents maximal monetary extraction, even if the player in question had NHLPA-indifferent homer agendas.

    I suspect arbitration is still calibrated against pre-2005 greed central. The NHLPA represents a large number of players whose economic prospects are constrained by this possibly backward institution, and thus by entirely valid, circular logic they end up not being entirely indifferent on the argument Willis adduces.

    Perhaps they ought to strike a blow at the root cause and advocate for arbitration reformation, but this is not by any means how human organizations commonly proceed. Circular logic? No problem—so long as present members get their overflowing cake pan in good, overflowing order.

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I mean, I said this several times yesterday, but this 4th overall result is FANTASTIC. I don’t see it as less valuable than a top 3 pick at all in real world terms.

    The top 3 are so clearly a tier above that no team is realistically going to trade down out of the top 3. Also, the price/fair value to obtain one of those picks is so high that no team is going to be willing to pony up what it takes. I’d be extremely shocked if a trade is made for the top 3.

    Chia would have rightly asked for the moon and no one would pay that price.

    #4, however, has so many possibilities.

    Arizona- trading up to take Tkachuk
    Vancouver- trading up to take Dubois
    Carolina- trading up to take Dubois
    Jersey – trading up to take Dubois

    etc., etc.
    Colorado–I don’t see it. They have Duchene and Mackinnon. They need D as well, especially if Barrie is leaving. I think they will stay where they are and select one of the big 3 D.

  60. JimmyV1965 says:

    One thing I’m really worried about is slotting in Dry as the 2C. I don’t think it’s fair to him and it’s not a great way to develop young talent. I can see penciling him in on the second line wing, but please not at centre. If we trade RNH we need to get a 2C and Eller is simply not that guy. I guess that’s why I like the Faulk deal so much. We should be able to get Jordan Staal as well. He would become the 2C and move to 3C once Dry is ready to take over. Staal’s contract sucks, one of the reasons the Canes would let him go, but it’s not a problem for three more years.

  61. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    JimmyV1965:
    One thing I’m really worried about is slotting in Dry as the 2C. I don’t think it’s fair to him and it’s not a great way to develop young talent. I can see penciling him in on the second line wing, but please not at centre.If we trade RNH we need to get a 2C and Eller is simply not that guy. I guess that’s why I like the Faulk deal so much. We should be able to get Jordan Staal as well. He would become the 2C and move to 3C once Dry is ready to take over. Staal’s contract sucks, one of the reasons the Canes would let him go, but it’s not a problem for three more years.

    What do you think it would cost to get both Faulk and Jordan Staal? The price to acquire both would gut this team.

  62. Walter Sobchak says:

    I don’t see any trade where the Oilers lose goals out of the line up is beneficial at all.

    This is why I’m still convinced that Nurse and Pouliot for Hamonic deal is the right offer.

    Then I think the Oilers wait till July 1st for Demers.

    We wait..

  63. lynn says:

    Chiarelli will be second-guessed six ways from Sunday, no matter what he does with the fourth pick.

  64. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide: Haha. My mind is whirling, so I stopped but there is more to come.

    Lowetide,

    Wideman’s value has hit the floor with his NMC requiring protection for an expansion draft. Like Ference he will need to be bought out by Calgary before I would look at him.

  65. square_wheels says:

    Woogie63,

    The question is do we trust our amateur scouts enough to pick a D early in the 1st when a player like Dubois is available.

    The answer is no.

    Therefore, Chia trades down for the best package of ready to play D and a late 1st. Or he waits to see what crazy GM’s pressured by a rabid fan base offer that’s a no-brainer.

    And if anyone doesn’t think Subban can’t be had, you’re crazy. There’s smoke pouring out of Montreal almost like there was when Roy left. We all know PK’s ego matcheshis talent, even after you apply the Ricky HSCA factor, he’s an elite D. Montreals D after Petry went down is as fragile as ours and PK faced never ending tough comps. He has warts, but if you’ve got Sek, Davi and Klef as supporting cast…..come fucking on, that’s a legit D corps.

    He turns 27 in 2 weeks, do we think his ceiling as a defensive D has been reached ? That’s the only thing I’m sorting this summer, before hounding Bergevin at the draft.

    FIX THE FUCKING D SHOULD BE TATTOED ON THE ENTIRE MNGT TEAMS FORHEADS.

  66. Pescador says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Colorado–I don’t see it. They have Duchene and Mackinnon. They need D as well, especially if Barrie is leaving. I think they will stay where they are and select one of the big 3 D.

    It pains me to say this, but that is exactly the way I see it. Barrie was target #1 on my list.
    Son Of A Bitch!! F*ck sakes,
    I’m all in on Demers, but more importantly is He all in on us?

  67. maxwell_mischief says:

    Even though I am a Reinhart fan I would welcome some kind of
    reinhart +4 for barrie +10
    is that too much? not enough? fair?

  68. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan: Lowetide,

    Wideman’s value has hit the floor with his NMC requiring protection for an expansion draft.Like Ference he will need to be bought out by Calgary before I would look at him.

    Do you have confirmation of this? NHL teams are going to be forced to protect free agents? Wow. I will need confirmation.

  69. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    To further the Bettman conspiracy I believe this only applies to teams who have won at least one Stanley Cup since 1988, the players last name must start in F or W and lastly, they must have 3 colors on their jerseys.

    And they can’t have had any altercations with the officials and be slow skaters.

  70. Pescador says:

    kinger_OIL,
    Hall/RNH/Drai
    Maroon/McD/Yak
    Pouliot/Shaw/Kassian
    Hendo/Letestu/Khaira
    Sekera/Hamonic
    Klefbom/Barrie
    Davidson/Fayne
    Gryba
    Talbot/Veteran Backup
    – Love this realistic roster. But Yak is gone sadly, even though thats dumb. Yak @ $2.5 > Ebs, and bet he scores more than Ebs: that’s an awesome 2nd line.

    Have to agree with most of this, couple tweaks I see-
    Yaks contract in relation to his play will be easy to replace, Eberle is a better option.
    As much as I would love Barrie on this team, please see above post from NYC.
    Hamonic & Demers ( I think Woodguy discovered him in a north Saskatchewan beer league)
    might be more realistic

  71. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: Do you have confirmation of this? NHL teams are going to be forced to protect free agents? Wow. I will need confirmation.

    I haven’t heard of any confirmation. That said, I was thinking about your plan to sign Reimer then expose him thereby ensuring the team loses him and no one else. I thought about the various situations out there, and I don’t think this works.

    Just for example, St. Louis will keep Jake Allen and expose Brian Elliott. Pittsburgh will have to choose between MAF and Matt Murray. Tampa chooses Bishop vs. Vasilevskiy.

    There will be too many other quality G out there such that signing Reimer doesn’t make it materially more unlikely that a position player will be taken.

    If the OIlers expose, and lose, Reinhart, there’s going to be some serious questioning of Chiarelli, even if it’s unfair to rag on him with the benefit of hindsight.

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Do you have confirmation of this? NHL teams are going to be forced to protect free agents? Wow. I will need confirmation.

    I cannot imagine teams will go for wasting a valued protected spot on a contract that’s expiring in a week. That makes no sense whatsoever. Where is a guy going to move between June 20 and July 01?

    Caveat: this is the NHL we’re talking about, so Logic & Reason left the building about 75 years ago, never to be seen since.

  73. smellyglove says:

    Some thoughts:

    1. Really like the scouting report on PLB, plus he has the ‘youngest player in the draft’ with size thing going for him. Anyone with quantitative evidence that younger players perform better? I seem to recall some geekery from someone on here who did the analysis. IIRC, being young is a factor for the most elite players, but not on average.

    2. Like others have mentioned: Having #4 does open up some other options in that the temptation to pick in the top 3 would be too great for PiChia to ignore. Maybe that’s just me trying to reconcile losing the lottery though, those top 3 players are great. All it takes is for two to five teams to be heavily desiring a guy ranked #4-#8 and you got yourself a great trade chip: lots of intriguing players fit that category and so I could foresee a bidding war.

    3. On the Subban trade: Nuge, Yak, and #4 for Subban, Eller and #8 (I believe that is what LT originally proposed), we still add, big time. We’d be getting a top five defenseman in the league for what is essentially the 2nd or 3rd best centre on our team. Yak has no/minimal trade value.

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I cannot imagine teams will go for wasting a valued protected spot on a contract that’s expiring in a week. That makes no sense whatsoever. Where is a guy going to move between June 20 and July 01?

    Caveat: this is the NHL we’re talking about, so Logic & Reason left the building about 75 years ago, never to be seen since.

    You know what would be an amazing event although it would never fly? Let the NHL have a 31 or 32 team expansion draft. After the expansion team(s) get to pick, let the existing NHL teams have one pick as well from any other team and put a cap per team on losing a max of 2 players total (2 from the expansion teams or 1 from an expansion team and one from the other teams). Determine the order by pure lottery.

    How crazy would that be?

  75. Bruce McCurdy says:

    kinger_OIL: Love this realistic roster. But Yak is gone sadly, even though thats dumb. Yak @ $2.5 > Ebs, and bet he scores more than Ebs: that’s an awesome 2nd line.

    Based on what?? The 8 goals and 1 powerplay goal Yak scored this past season?

    Over the past 3 years Eberle has scored 77 goals, Yakupov 33. Yet somehow Yak is the better scorer?

  76. lynn says:

    Pescador:
    kinger_OIL,
    Hall/RNH/Drai
    Maroon/McD/Yak
    Pouliot/Shaw/Kassian
    Hendo/Letestu/Khaira
    Sekera/Hamonic
    Klefbom/Barrie
    Davidson/Fayne
    Gryba
    Talbot/Veteran Backup
    – Love this realistic roster. But Yak is gone sadly, even though thats dumb. Yak @ $2.5 > Ebs, and bet he scores more than Ebs: that’s an awesome 2nd line.

    Have to agree with most of this, couple tweaks I see-
    Yaks contract in relation to his play will be easy to replace, Eberle is a better option.
    As much as I would love Barrie on this team, please see above post from NYC.
    Hamonic & Demers ( I think Woodguy discovered him in a north Saskatchewan beer league)
    might be more realistic

    This is a good “realistic” roster, I agree. I like your having Jujhar Khaira as the fourth-line RWer, even though he is a LWer or centre. The Oilers need good young players in their bottom-six who are on value contracts.

  77. Oilspill says:

    Pescador:
    kinger_OIL,
    Hall/RNH/Drai
    Maroon/McD/Yak
    Pouliot/Shaw/Kassian
    Hendo/Letestu/Khaira
    Sekera/Hamonic
    Klefbom/Barrie
    Davidson/Fayne
    Gryba
    Talbot/Veteran Backup
    – Love this realistic roster. But Yak is gone sadly, even though thats dumb. Yak @ $2.5 > Ebs, and bet he scores more than Ebs: that’s an awesome 2nd line.

    Have to agree with most of this, couple tweaks I see-
    Yaks contract in relation to his play will be easy to replace, Eberle is a better option.
    As much as I would love Barrie on this team, please see above post from NYC.
    Hamonic & Demers ( I think Woodguy discovered him in a north Saskatchewan beer league)
    might be more realistic

    Fayne/Gryba are redundant. Not room for both. I suspect Fayne stays because nobody wants him and Gryba is a UFA.. Great chance Hall Eberle RNH are all gone. NONE are Chia type players.

  78. fifthcartel says:

    What happens if a team has 2 goalies with NMCs? Expansion is going to be a mess.

  79. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: What do you think it would cost to get both Faulk and Jordan Staal? The price to acquire both would gut this team.

    This year’s 1st, next year’s 1st, RNH and then pieces. Maybe I’m dreaming.

  80. Armchair GM says:

    Woogie63:
    If we hold onto the draft pick, in my mind it comes down to get the fourth best forward OR the First pick at the best defensemen.I would take the BEST available Dman.With a little license i looked at the last 15 drafts and compared the 4th forward vs. the best dman (tried to stay in the top 10 picks for the selections) IMHO the dman is the better pick 11/15 times.

    year4th best FwdBest Dman

    2015,Marner –Hannifin
    2014,Dal Colle –Ekblad
    2013,Lindholm –Jones
    2012,Grigorenko –Lindholm
    2011,Strome –Larsson
    2010,Niederreiter –Gudbranson
    2009,Schenn –Hedman/E-Larsson
    2008,Boeker –Doughhty
    2007,Ganger –Hickey/Alzner
    2006,Kessel –Johnson
    2005,Brule –Johnson
    2004,Wheeler –Barker
    2003,Vanek –Coburn
    2002,Taticek –Bouwmeester
    2001,Weiss –Komisarek

    Nice idea but your methodology is flawed. You need to compare the 4th best forward with the best remaining D that was available at that point in the draft. As an example, in 2014 Ekblad was the top pick and was not an available option when Dal Colle was chosen. Your comparison should have been Dal Colle vs Haydn Fleury (Carolina pick who was the top D available when Dal Colle was chosen.) I didn’t bother to go through all of your examples but will wait in eager anticipation to see what the changed result will be should you choose to redo your list.

  81. Oilspill says:

    How do you realistically move Fayne? He’s overpaid by at least 2.3 million as a #7 dman who earlier cleared waivers.

    kinger_OIL:
    Richard S.S.,

    – Yes Richard: Klef needs to play with a vet, not mentoring and carrying a player with less than the 100 games he’s played and expected to do so in top-4: Thats another Klef DNF from disastor D.

    – Sek needs an upgrade on Fayne

    – Put one of the kids with Fayne, and if the kids start stepping up, move Fayne at trade deadline

  82. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    JimmyV1965: This year’s 1st, next year’s 1st, RNH and then pieces. Maybe I’m dreaming.

    I see. To be fair to you, that’s more than I was thinking you were offering.
    RNH, #4 overall, 1st 2017, +
    for
    Faulk and Staal?

    That’s a lot to give up, like I was saying.

  83. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    I have been trying to get confirmation myself but I don’t think it is as finalized as Lawless’ scoop suggested.

    The issue is when do we do the Expansion Draft? If prior to July 1st 2017 next year’s contracts are the ones in play NMC and years of service are for that year.

    Bad news for the Oil is Ference and his NMC. Good news is that McDavid will not be in his third season.

    Given that one of the factors needs to be that 25% of a team’s cap must be exposed implies that the pre-July 1st roster is the one in play. Chicago, btw, has 7 NMC and they constitute 85% of their cap – Bowman has some work to do.

    Other interesting ironic point, if I am correct that it’s next year’s contracts that you look at for the Expansion Draft, Arizona will be required to protect Pronger. Lol.

  84. Jaxon says:

    The more I read about Dubois, the more I like him. A right shot would have been nice but a C/W player gives them some good flexibility. If Yakupov is gone, RW gets a bit weak and you definitely don’t want to trade Eberle but If Dubois plays C, then Draisaitl can play RW. Dubois’ stats are very impressive. He’s big, fast, all around game. His pts/gp puts him in pretty elite territory. He had a +/- of +40! Blah blah blah, flawed stat, whatever, +40 is pretty crazy. 112 PIM shows he is not afraid to muck it up. He may get some bad penalties and drive us nuts sometimes, but I’ll take that flaw for a competitive skilled player.

    From Elite Prospects profile:

    “A top-end talent that impacts all aspects of the game from different angles. May well be the most complete player in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. His multidimensional play and elite offensive prowess reminds scouts a little bit of James Neal. Competitiveness marks his game and he consistently proves to be a high impact player when he is on the ice. [EP] – See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=252480#sthash.m62cDVgh.dpuf

    Maroon / McDavid / Eberle
    Hall / Nugent-Hopkins / Kassian
    Pouliot / Dubois / Draisaitl
    OR
    Pouliot / McDavid / Eberle
    Hall / Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl
    Maroon / Dubois / Kassian – that is a nasty line

    PP1
    Hall / McDavid / Eberle
    PP2
    Dubois / Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl

  85. square_wheels says:

    Janmark vs Petrangelo, Lordy that kid can fly.

  86. Jaxon says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
    Lowetide,
    Doug McLachlan,
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Lowetide: Do you have confirmation of this? NHL teams are going to be forced to protect free agents? Wow. I will need confirmation.

    Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts, #1:
    “1. Sometime this week, the NHL and NHLPA agreed on expansion draft rules. No-move clauses are protected, and teams will not be able to expose those players. What’s next? A meeting of the NHL’s Executive Committee, the most powerful group of 10 owners. It’s chaired by Boston’s Jeremy Jacobs. It’s expected that group will be called together in the next week or two. If they approve, the final hurdle would be a full Board of Governors meeting. We’re getting close to knowing one way or the other.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-players-drop-draft/

  87. Professor Q says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    If everyone deducts points from Tkachuk because he plays with two NHL ready line mates how doesn’t Juolevi get deducted the same? Marner runs that powerplay.

    Brian Wilde is right the stars may have perfectly aligned…to F over the habs. A sour taste in their mouthes going into the offseason because they have realized their team is Price, a high scoring French Canadian centreman sitting in the oilers draft spot, and a love for Galchenyuk’s old teammate. 4th overall, Eberle, Yakupov for Subban. 3 for 1.

    It will be interesting to see how Svechnikov does, too. Dubois isn’t as ‘alone’ as people here are making him out to be (although I don’t put as much into the linemate thing with these two players as people here do, either).

  88. godot10 says:

    Ference will waive his NMC for the expansion draft, if it is an issue. His contract will be expiring. He will have probably announced his retirement well before the expansion draft. Ference wants to live in the city.

    Can we worry about real problems instead of made-up ones?

  89. square_wheels says:

    Alex Pietrangelo skating has gone to complete shit. Anyone questioning why he’s not considered in the elite D category, watch him transport through the neutral zone.

    Watch StL flip him this summer for a staggering return, laughing all the way. He is cut from the same cloth as Seabrook, his wheels are going to fall off early and someone is stuck paying for his past.

  90. godot10 says:

    I sort of hope the Oilers try Reinhart and #4OV for Trouba.

  91. Jaxon says:

    A few teams in tough with NMCs:

    Chicago: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Corey Crawford.

    Columbus: Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, David Clarkson, Scott Hartnell and Fedor Tyutin.

    Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang.

    Winnipeg: Toby Enstrom, Tyler Myers and Dustin Byfuglien.

  92. kinger_OIL says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Based on what?? The 8 goals and 1 powerplay goal Yak scored this past season?

    Over the past 3 years Eberle has scored 77 goals, Yakupov 33. Yet somehow Yak is the better scorer?

    Bruce: your blind spot for Ebs is strange, as is your selective disclosure.

    – Yak’s GF/60 with McD vs Ebs is exactly the same: 3.79 vs 3.8
    – Yak’s GF/60 with Hall is 2.82 vs 2.92 with Ebs (who played with him 5x as much, last 3 years)
    – Yak is way better with Leon than Ebs (1.4 vs .84)
    – Ebs is better with RNH, garbage with Letetsu. Yak scores more with Letesu than Ebs with Drai!

    – If you think that there would be a substantial drop-off with Yak playing the minutes that Ebs gets with the “core” you aren’t looking at the numbers, and wasting everyones time

    – Citing scoring stas over 3 years to say that one player has scored more, when one plays 30% less minutes, gets minimal powerplay time, and 3rd line treatement is not what I’d expect

    – Yak @ $2.5MM > Ebs. Any dropoff in scoring between the two (which is debatable) is more than compensated by the change in roster that the extra $3.5MM gives: its not even worth debating

    – Ebs is gone next year anyway: book it (and Yak sadly)

    – Sure Ebs has scored more last 3 years than Ebs, what’s your point?: the numbers say Yak would do same given the same opportunity: he scores at same rate. That’s not open for debate

    – I’d love for Yak to be on roster next year so you could see how wrong you are with Yak getting Ebs teamates and minutes.

    – But neither player fits Chia’s/McL template: bye-bye

  93. kinger_OIL says:

    Oilspill,

    “How do you realistically move Fayne? He’s overpaid by at least 2.3 million as a #7 dman who earlier cleared waivers.”

    – Did you read my post? I put him on 3rd pair.

    – Then maybe he gets traded at deadline, keep salary, package, whatever: he’s only got one year left at that point, not that hard: sheesh!

  94. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    kinger_OIL,

    You think they are trading both scoring right wings away? On what planet does that constitute balance?

  95. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Lowetide,

    I have been trying to get confirmation myself but I don’t think it is as finalized as Lawless’ scoop suggested.

    The issue is when do we do the Expansion Draft?If prior to July 1st 2017 next year’s contracts are the ones in play NMC and years of service are for that year.

    Bad news for the Oil is Ference and his NMC.Good news is that McDavid will not be in his third season.

    Given that one of the factors needs to be that 25% of a team’s cap must be exposed implies that the pre-July 1st roster is the one in play.Chicago, btw, has 7 NMC and they constitute 85% of their cap – Bowman has some work to do.

    Other interesting ironic point, if I am correct that it’s next year’s contracts that you look at for the Expansion Draft, Arizona will be required to protect Pronger.Lol.

    I can tell you that in the long history of the game, at no time was a team forced to protect a player with two weeks left on his contract. It is a non-starter imo.

  96. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Jaxon:
    A few teams in tough with NMCs:

    Chicago: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Corey Crawford.

    Not seeing how this is tough. Those would be the guys to protect anyway and Panarin is exempt. Similar for Pittsburgh.

    Columbus is definitely in a tough spot.

  97. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10,

    Not suggesting it is a big issue but I do think it is real.

    There will be 66 NMCs next season (plus any entered into this summer) and the NHL hates them so, yes I can see the NHL requiring teams to protect those contracts even if they are expiring. I don’t believe anyone has suggested that the player could agree to waive it for an Expansion Draft – though you can be sure that Chicago will push for it (Hossa).

    Ference is still hurt so he can’t be bought out until medically cleared but perhaps Chia opens a second window by qualifying Kassian. There are options.

  98. square_wheels says:

    I sure hope Dallas thinks that Russels ability to shoot pucks 4 ft wide of the net and have it deflect right to Benn…..is worth a 5 yr contract.

    Demers is exactly as advertised, nothing flashy but routinely making the right play at the right time.

  99. Doug McLachlan says:

    Jaxon,

    Anaheim also has 5, I believe.

  100. godot10 says:

    Pieterangelo’s a bum. He played 30 minutes in regulation. Clearly, not a defensemen one would want.

    Shattenkirk with fewer minutes than Parayko. 3rd pairing RD! -).

  101. kinger_OIL says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
    – Don’t misrepresent what I wrote to make my comments sound silly.

    – They aren’t trading them away and getting nothing back: they will get Maroon type-wingers to play with the skill and with a better D, this team will score more.

    – You think either Ebs or Yak are back next year? They are both gone. I’d bet on that.

  102. square_wheels says:

    Sportsnet breaking down a FO goal without full length sticks and Hrudey standing in the goal ? I’m so confused, I need them up on their fake ice thingy showing me EXACTLY what happened.

  103. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree that it sounds ludicrous to those teams with expiring NMC contracts but it really is the flip side of exposing an expiring contract to reach your 25% of the Cap requirement.

    I think we will know by this year’s draft what the rules will be but suspect that a buyout may need to happen.

  104. square_wheels says:

    godot10,

    He is certainly a great player, but he’s got heavy feet and will be a strong candidate for the early 30’s cliff.

    StL was only burnt once on an aging D that wasn’t a great skater. Doubtful they flip him but a savvy GM is going to turn him into a huge return before paying him the Seabrook $$$$.

    Bouwmeester can play forever with those wheels of his, he’d be perfect for an expansion team.

  105. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
    Lowetide,
    Doug McLachlan,
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts, #1:
    “1. Sometime this week, the NHL and NHLPA agreed on expansion draft rules. No-move clauses are protected, and teams will not be able to expose those players. What’s next? A meeting of the NHL’s Executive Committee, the most powerful group of 10 owners. It’s chaired by Boston’s Jeremy Jacobs. It’s expected that group will be called together in the next week or two. If they approve, the final hurdle would be a full Board of Governors meeting. We’re getting close to knowing one way or the other.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-players-drop-draft/

    This would be the ultimate in foolishness. Ference is going to be a free agent, none of this applies to him. Seriously.

  106. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    godot10,

    Not suggesting it is a big issue but I do think it is real.

    There will be 66 NMCs next season (plus any entered into this summer) and the NHL hates them so, yes I can see the NHL requiring teams to protect those contracts even if they are expiring.I don’t believe anyone has suggested that the player could agree to waive it for an Expansion Draft – though you can be sure that Chicago will push for it (Hossa).

    Ference is still hurt so he can’t be bought out until medically cleared but perhaps Chia opens a second window by qualifying Kassian. There are options.

    The NHL has no power to prevent Ference from waiving his NMC. Players waive their NMC’s and no trades all the time.

    Ference wants to live in the Edmonton area. Why would he obliterate his relationship with the OIlers by not waiving?

    Common sense.

  107. AsiaOil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    kinger_OIL,

    You think they are trading both scoring right wings away? On what planet does that constitute balance?

    You do it if you can sign Eriksson as UFA and keep Drai on RW with RNH/Hall

  108. AsiaOil says:

    kinger_OIL: Bruce: your blind spot for Ebs is strange, as is your selective disclosure.

    – Yak’s GF/60 with McD vs Ebs is exactly the same: 3.79 vs 3.8
    – Yak’s GF/60 with Hall is 2.82 vs 2.92 with Ebs (who played with him 5x as much, last 3 years)
    – Yak is way better with Leon than Ebs (1.4 vs .84)
    – Ebs is better with RNH, garbage with Letetsu. Yak scores more with Letesu than Ebs with Drai!

    – If you think that there would be a substantial drop-off with Yak playing the minutes that Ebs gets with the “core” you aren’t looking at the numbers, and wasting everyones time

    – Citing scoring stas over 3 years to say that one player has scored more, when one plays 30% less minutes, gets minimal powerplay time, and 3rd line treatement is not what I’d expect

    – Yak @ $2.5MM > Ebs.Any dropoff in scoring between the two (which is debatable) is more than compensated by the change in roster that the extra $3.5MM gives: its not even worth debating

    – Ebs is gone next year anyway: book it (and Yak sadly)

    – Sure Ebs has scored more last 3 years than Ebs, what’s your point?: the numbers say Yak would do same given the same opportunity: he scores at same rate.That’s not open for debate

    – I’d love for Yak to be on roster next year so you could see how wrong you are with Yak getting Ebs teamates and minutes.

    – But neither player fits Chia’s/McL template: bye-bye

    Boom 🙂

  109. Jaxon says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Good point. They will have to expose a few youngsters instead of vets. Van Riemsdyk, Pokka, Svedberg and Gustafsson. But not the biggest deal. If any of their games begin to fall off the rails, then it may become an issue, but you’re right. At this point, it is not.

  110. leftwinger9 says:

    These are my realistic RH D targets (in order): Barrie, Hamonic, Faulk (Carolina), Demers (UFA), Vatanen.

    Can get any of those guys without affecting the core. If a whale becomes available (Karlsson, etc), the core becomes part of the conversation.

    Nikitin gone, Ference bought out or LTIR, frees up over $8 mil. Buy out Korpi. Money is there.

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    leftwinger9,

    Faulk doesn’t belong on that list. Seriously, he is worth more to Carolina than any one player on the Oilers’ roster except McDavid or perhaps Hall. Targeting him would absolutely affect the core.

  112. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    I think the Oilers and Ference will find a way to make it work out. Either he waives his NMC like Godot suggests, or he retires before the expansion draft.

    I’m not losing sleep over that one.

  113. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Lowetide,

    I agree that it sounds ludicrous to those teams with expiring NMC contracts but it really is the flip side of exposing an expiring contract to reach your 25% of the Cap requirement.

    I think we will know by this year’s draft what the rules will be but suspect that a buyout may need to happen.

    I have never seen any league, at any time, force their member teams to protect an asset that will expire in two weeks. I don’t think this carries any water, but respect your keeping an open mind on it. If ever a league is going to sewer their own member teams with a stupid rule, it will be the NHL.

  114. Bruce McCurdy says:

    square_wheels:
    Alex Pietrangelo skating has gone to complete shit. Anyone questioning why he’s not considered in the elite D category, watch him transport through the neutral zone.

    I had a similar thought, just as Pietrangelo watched Mattias Janmark just blow right past him for the 3-2 goal. Nice burst of speed but the d-man had to get a piece of that guy & Pietro was “also in frame”.

  115. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I see. To be fair to you, that’s more than I was thinking you were offering.
    RNH, #4 overall, 1st 2017, +
    for
    Faulk and Staal?

    That’s a lot to give up, like I was saying.

    I’m sure I’m dreaming in technicolour, but what I’m really worried about is trading RNH and expecting Dry to step in as the 2C and all will be well. To me, that’s where the Oil have really failed over the years. Giving good young prospects too much responsibility and no support. Im on board with trading RNH but we have to get a semi decent 2C in return or go out and get a free agent.

  116. square_wheels says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    His skating style makes him adept at head man passes – when he has time. His sits upright, his torso is vertical, making him “heavy” on his feet.

    Lots of D are similar to him, Seabrook near identical skating style. Big red flags as these guys age.

    I’d be quietly shopping him, the return will shock most but just wait until he’s 32.

  117. leftwinger9 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Honestly, I haven’t looked into Faulk as much as the others. Is the 4th pick + Reinhart for Faulk + the 13th pick unrealistic? How much more would the Oil have to add?

  118. MrEd says:

    https://milehighsticking.com/2016/04/28/tyson-barries-fate-uncertain-colorado-avalanche/

    Its an interesting write-up on what Barrie brings, his comparables, and what the Avalanche are facing…

    leftwinger9,

    -To get Barrie we’d have to pay and I’m not sure this type of player is what we’re after. We need our shiny new RD to at least saw off.
    -Faulk isn’t going anywhere as mentioned.

    Which leaves Hamonic, Demers and Vatanen.

  119. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10,

    “Common sense.” and NHL are connected in what manner? 😉

  120. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    leftwinger9:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Honestly, I haven’t looked into Faulk as much as the others. Is the 4th pick + Reinhart for Faulk + the 13th pick unrealistic? How much more would the Oil have to add?

    Completely unrealistic. The Oilers would have to add significantly. Would you accept that trade for Hall? I wouldn’t think so.

  121. godot10 says:

    leftwinger9:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Honestly, I haven’t looked into Faulk as much as the others. Is the 4th pick + Reinhart for Faulk + the 13th pick unrealistic? How much more would the Oil have to add?

    Carolina can get nearly as good a player at #13 as #4. So your proposal is basically Reinhart for Faultk.

    Maybe Nugent-Hopkins, Reinhart, and the #4 OV might get Ron Francis to not laugh in your face as he hangs up the phone.

  122. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    Clearly I have some issues that need to be addressed but I suspect my challenge here is attempting to apply some consistency on the NHL – fools errand if there ever was one.

    The Expansion Draft rules, to the extent that they have been finalized, involve exempt players (those, presumably, like McDavid who have played two or less seasons of pro-contract hockey) and protected players (either 10F-3D-1G or 8F/D-1G). These protected players MUST include players who have NMCs.

    As for consistency, I am operating under the assumption that the temporal conditions of both exempt players (seasons played) and protected players (NMCs) will be determined in the same manner – contract status at time of the Expansion Draft – which is why July 1st 2017 is so crucial, IMO.

    Part of the reason I am making this assumption is the third condition of the Expansion Draft rules, as well as we know them, that 25% of a team’s cap needs to be exposed. It makes sense that the determination of that cap space would be pre-July 1st as opposed to post-July 1st. If you go after July 1st the $ that remains on the cap is way less than before. The alternative leaves too high a sum of money locked up on your protected list.

    The Entry-Draft and FA Frenzy have always, iirc, have always occurred AFTER the Expansion Draft. Don’t see why it would be changed for, from what I can see, are 3 NMC contracts: Ference, Wideman and Pronger.

    Perhaps there is a grandfathering of those contracts – sure there would have been for Loophole Luo – but this looks to be something that will need to be looked at once the rules are finally finalized. That’s all I was saying with Wideman – which prompted all this.

  123. leftwinger9 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Faulk=Hall? I didn’t think of him as a #1 d-man. Definitely off the list in that case.

  124. JimmyV1965 says:

    leftwinger9:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Honestly, I haven’t looked into Faulk as much as the others. Is the 4th pick + Reinhart for Faulk + the 13th pick unrealistic? How much more would the Oil have to add?

    Sorry. I don’t think that’s nearly enough. They’ve got good dmen prospects, but the cupboards are bare at forward. The starting price I think is the 4th +’RNH. We would have to add more though. And of course, helping them get to the cap floor is always important. I think we could actually unload a guy like Fayne if we trade with the Canes. He’s useful and the term is short.

  125. The Morning Skate, May 2: The Canucks draft story and summertime playoffs | The Province says:

    […] (Top-notch Oilers blog Lowetide has a look at how the draft may play out, now that we know the order, here.) […]

  126. haters says:

    This is probably an unpopular idea, but I would trade down a few spots and grab Chychurun, then trade Nurse to NYI for Hamonic. Snow would want more most likely but it would get the ball rolling I think.

    That would give us the RHD we desperatly need and replace a prospect with a higher ceiling prospect. Jakob can just chill in the OHL next year and slide into Condors in 2 years.

    I think we need to sell Nurse on what remaining cache his potenial has before anyone else sees he’s a bottom pairing defenseman. Probably an unpopular idea but wtvr I think it’s the right call.

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