PURE AND EASY

The Edmonton Oilers have a significant shopping list this summer and we have spent most of the first month postseason making a wish list. My list is here. Now that we know the lottery slotting, we can begin to talk about how to pay for the incoming.

OILERS CURRENT NHL ROSTER

oilers cap april 26

My estimates have Edmonton with over $6 million in cap room and I am assuming some signings and all of the bonus money being won by McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse. Please let me know of any changes.

CHIARELLI SUMMER LIST

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (think Travis Hamonic/Jason Demers)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (think Tyson Barrie/Sami Vatanen)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (Small group available. Tommy Wingels? Tyler Bozak?)
  4. Offload unwanted contract (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Backup goalie (Jhonas Enroth)
  6. Find value contracts (Davidson, Maroon but also possibly Khaira, Oesterle)
  7. Re-stock the system partly through college and CHL signings (big summer)
  8. Build up the system (especially forwards) via draft (big summer)

I usually get about five emails and several comments about Klefbom as top pairing here, but this is how things set up for me. If it makes you feel better to put Sekera as top pair, giddyup. For me, I want the Swede with the veteran two-way guy and then Sekera can cover for the chaos.

CHIARELLI ASSET LIST

  1. No. 4 overall selection
  2. Jordan Eberle
  3. 2017 1st round selection
  4. Young LHD (Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, Griffin Reinhart)
  5. Benoit Pouliot
  6. Nail Yakupov
  7. Cap space (Edmonton might be able to get a player like Bozak on the cheap because of it)

GOOD SCOUTING

The Oilers are going to spend a lot of their gold this summer, and coming off a year in which Connor McDavid, Griffin Reinhart, Andrej Sekera, Lauri Korpikoski, Cam Talbot, Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian and Patrick Maroon were the key NHL additions, 65 percent isn’t going to get it done.

I don’t think it is reasonable to expect a GM to run the table in any summer, but getting this right summer 2016 is vital for Peter Chiarelli. He pulled off some very astute deals for Boston and needs one (and to sign Jason Demers) this summer. Is it Vatanen? Increasingly, I think the RHD difference maker may be a more established player.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

93 Responses to "PURE AND EASY"

  1. Mr DeBakey says:

    I was in a roadtrip bubble this week-end, just found out the results of the Lottery about 1 1/2 hours ago.

    Auston Matthews will be, if he isn’t already, the greatest hockey player ever to lace up skates.
    Guaranteed.

    ****

    Jean-Luc looks good to go.
    So too does trading down to 10th or 11th and drafting McAvoy.

    ****

    I look forward to the day when the NHL team I cheer for features no teenagers.
    Hopefully we’re only one year away.

  2. gd says:

    RE: Barrie/Vatenen

    Are there any other teams that would have as much a need for these guys as the Oilers that would go to the $5.3 offer sheet that is the 1st & 3rd comp? I can’t see any other teams that need the PP QB except maybe Vancouver if Edler is injured. Can Chia use the Offer Sheet threat as leverage against Col/Ana to get a deal done? I think one of those two represent the the perfect mix of a slight overpay for the perfect fit. I also like that they are Western Conference guys.

  3. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    What are your thoughts about Justin Faulk?

  4. Lowetide says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    What are your thoughts about Justin Faulk?

    I like him but he is going to cost more than Eberle and that is my line in the sand. I dont even want to trade Eberle, but something has to go.

  5. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I like him but he is going to cost more than Eberle and that is my line in the sand. I dont even want to trade Eberle, but something has to go.

    Eberle isn’t going to get you Justin Faulk. I doubt even Hall would get you Justin Faulk.

    Ron Francis has his rebuild set up nearly perfectly. The defense is done. He has a decent goaltender. All he has to do is draft forwards, and let cap-constrained teams give him forwards for nearly free.

  6. DBO says:

    So looking at the first rd losers, are they our greatest target? Anaheim has an internal cap, so money is always an issue. Do you send.them 2 players to get one back? Can we stomach Davidson and his value deal, along with Yakupov for Vatanen? Solves our issue, balances out the back a bit, and sends Anaheim some great assets that are inexpensive. I’m not sure u like that deal, but it probably works. Also allows us to keep Eberle for a bigger piece if needed. But ideally I keep Eberle.

  7. fifthcartel says:

    I’m not sure if I’m going to be able to survive this summer. Every notification my phone gets at work is going to scare me.

  8. Madtown Oil says:

    Yes, critical summer. But, I think this team has been so badly managed it can’t be fixed by trading those asset–either causes new holes in roster (Ebs) and/or has limited current value (Yak, 4th pick).

    I hope PC doesn’t doubles down on poor asset management–trading away the chance to finally find a balanced rooster.

    Finally, one quick thought test. Why is number 4 pick on asset list but not Leon? Is it cause Leon is viewed as more untouchable? What would return on 4th pick versus Leon look like this summer? My point is trading 4th pick, say Jean-Luc ,now is selling low compared to trading two years from now.

  9. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    So looking at the first rd losers, are they our greatest target?Anaheim has an internal cap, so money is always an issue. Do you send.them 2 players to get one back? Can we stomach Davidson and his value deal, along with Yakupov for Vatanen?Solves our issue, balances out the back a bit, and sends Anaheim some great assets that are inexpensive.I’m not sure u like that deal, but it probably works. Also allows us to keep Eberle for a bigger piece if needed. But ideally I keep Eberle.

    Anaheim doesn’t need a D back for Vatanen. They have Theodore and Manson waiting in the wings.

    And they can play the Oilers interest in Vatanen off against the Leafs, (who might be willing to take Fowler, rather than Vatanen). If the Leafs take Fowler, Anaheim might have the money to pay Vatanen.

    What Anaheim needs is an affordable scorer, preferably on left wing. Barring that, draft picks.

  10. Richard S.S. says:

    Trading Eberle loses a natural top RH shot, probably one of the Oilers’ top Goal scorers. He might not be enough.

    The Oilers’ top tradable assets are:
    1).2016 #4 Pick;
    2) Taylor Hall;
    3) 2017 1st Rounder; the rest as per Lowetide
    4). Young LHD (Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, Griffin Reinhart);
    5). Benoit Pouliot;
    6). Nail Yakupov;
    7).Cap space (Edmonton might be able to get a player like Bozak on the cheap because of it).

    Use the best assets to acquire the best RHD possible. For each new acquisition, some salary must go out. Can’t do enough without $10-12 Million in Cap Space.

  11. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Eberle isn’t going to get you Justin Faulk. I doubt even Hall would get you Justin Faulk.

    Ron Francis has his rebuild set up nearly perfectly. The defense is done.He has a decent goaltender.All he has to do is draft forwards, and let cap-constrained teams give him forwards for nearly free.

    We will have to agree to disagree.

  12. blainer says:

    I think that Chia does have a plan. This is how I do it. Find out if Stamkos is interested in coming through back channel’s without tampering.. if so.. trade a fifth to Tampa to negotiate.. If it’s not Stamkos then someone else like Okposo..

    Once you have a deal done then go and trade one of Ebs or Nuge. If your going after PK you’re gonna have to give up Klef or Nurse also.

    I would rather keep all our picks but that 4th is of major value to someone like the habs. I include it if its for Subban or Karlsson but that’s about it .. otherwise I keep it.

    I can see a trade of Nurse Nuge and the 1st for Subban and one of their prospects. Doubt they get McCarron but I would ask.

    Klef PK

    Sekera Fayne

    Davidson Demers

    That is a playoff D for sure IMO.. Trying to get the money work is another thing.

  13. mr sakich says:

    Demers changes everything. If we don’t have to give up assets for a legit 2nd pairing guy, we have the tools to make a fair offer for Barrie / harmonic / Vatenen.

    Darren Helm is a ufa center that would look good on our 3rd line. Chris Kelly is known to Chia as well. He would be my #1 3rd line ufa target

  14. Moose says:

    Something that has been bothering me about the comments by Oiler fans the last couple days is this narrative that dropping to #4 was actually a blessing in disguise or “perfect”. I can’t possibly see how that’s true. It sounds like sour grapes.

    Simply staying in the top 3 afforded the Oilers an opportunity to take the sting out of trading Eberle or RNH for a top parking RHD, by having something approaching a plug-and-play replacement in Mathews or the two Finn’s. I agree with an earlier poster (can’t recall who it was) that I’m not terribly excited about taking more scoring out of the lineup to fix the D. Yes, it HAS to happen, but you better hope that Chia lands some secondary scoring via a value trade or UFA, otherwise it’s another season of playing whack-a-mole on the roster.

    The other consideration here, and I’m reading into PC’s comments a little bit, but there was some mention in one of the local write-ups that losing out on 1-2-3 took a bigger trade option off the table for PC. Could he have talked to MTL about Subban contingent on winning the lottery or staying in the top 3? As PC said this morning, there aren’t a lot of elite D-men available, so I’d have to think there are even less available when you’re not holding a 1-2-3 spot. The Oilers were the one team in that cluster that stood a realistic chance of trading the pick based on where they are in their lifecycle/window.

    The expansion draft argument to me is irrelevant. Any player selected this year isn’t going to need protection in either (assuming there’s two different ones) expansion draft anyway based on the rules proposed.

    We can blue sky this all we want, but the Oilers options are less palatable then they were 24 hours ago. We simply don’t have a lot of expendable assets and organizational depth to tick all the boxes off that shopping list. This is a scary summer.

  15. Richard S.S. says:

    Peter Chiarelli now has a better idea of what he must trade to acquire what he needs. I fully expect something to happen in the next 14-18 days. Peter will do everything he can to get one needed piece as soon as he can. His second and subsequent additions will take longer. I’m to eager to wait well.

  16. OF17 says:

    gd:
    RE: Barrie/Vatenen

    Are there any other teams that would have as much a need for these guys as the Oilers that would go to the $5.3 offer sheet that is the 1st & 3rd comp? I can’t see any other teams that need the PP QB except maybe Vancouver if Edler is injured. Can Chia use the Offer Sheet threat as leverage against Col/Ana to get a deal done? I think one of those two represent the the perfect mix of a slight overpay for the perfect fit. I also like that they are Western Conference guys.

    Interesting idea. I don’t like the idea of exposing a 1st the year after finishing second last, and I think that’s what would take the leverage away. All it would take is Anaheim calling us on it for us to back down. At least I hope so. Vatanen is a really nice piece, but he alone isn’t enough to guarantee a much lower pick.

  17. Richard S.S. says:

    Moose,

    The number one pick gets traded, he’s not what the Oilers need. Picks two and three are exactly what the Oilers and Chiarelli are looking for, but also eminently tradable.

    With the loss of the 1-3 picks, Chiarelli might have to increase his offer(s) to more than he’s comfortable with, but must anyway.

  18. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, I take it that Ference is expected to be LTIR-ed? Last year at this point we were discussing a Ference buyout. We might want to budget for it.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LT, I take it that Ference is expected to be LTIR-ed? Last year at this point we were discussing a Ference buyout. We might want to budget for it.

    It works out best for the Oilers if he is LTIR-d. I think that will be the way they go.

  20. bbf_iii says:

    Lowetide: It works out best for the Oilers if he is LTIR-d. I think that will be the way they go.

    Unless they are forced to waste a slot and protect him in the expansion draft, then it may not be best.

  21. Lowetide says:

    bbf_iii: Unless they are forced to waste a slot and protect him in the expansion draft, then it may not be best.

    The LTIR option would be for this season, and then Ference contract is over. Just one year left.

  22. bbf_iii says:

    Lowetide: The LTIR option would be for this season, and then Ference contract is over. Just one year left.

    But he’s not UFA until July 1st, 2017 and the draft is supposed to be before then. This issue is why Nurse and McDavid can be considered second year pros, because legally they will still be in the second year of their contracts.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Eberle doesnt get you Hamonic who asked for a trade to pretty much the Oilers. Canes have Skinner so they really don’t want Eberle. So if we don’t want to draft a dman high and we don’t want to give up a small redundant forward how do you fix this defense. Demers is ok as a stop gap but in the long run you need to aim higher for #1 right handed D.

    I also think you are underappreciating Barrie a lot. He is better than Demers and Hamonic. He would be above them and is not in the same boat as vatanen

  24. 719 says:

    bbf_iii: But he’s not UFA until July 1st, 2017 and the draft is supposed to be before then. This issue is why Nurse and McDavid can be considered second year pros, because legally they will still be in the second year of their contracts.

    Wouldn’t you just ask him to waive his NMC in that case? I doubt that Ferrence wouldn’t waive his NMC, he is well liked in the organization and outside of it. I doubt he would want to jeopardize that.

  25. bbf_iii says:

    719: Wouldn’t you just ask him to waive his nmc in that case?I doubt that Ferrence wouldn’t, he is well liked in the organization and outside of it.

    That’s the hope, but I don’t think we know the details enough to know if that is possible.

  26. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    Eberle doesnt get you Hamonic who asked for a trade to pretty much the Oilers.Canes have Skinner so they really don’t want Eberle.So if we don’t want to draft a dman high and we don’t want to give up a small redundant forward how do you fix this defense.Demers is ok as a stop gap but in the long run you need to aim higher for #1 right handed D.

    I also think you are underappreciating Barrie a lot.He is better than Demers and Hamonic.He would be above them and is not in the same boat as vatanen

    There is no way for us to know most of what you are saying, so there is no way for me to argue it. Eberle for Hamonic seems reasonable to me, so I will proceed accordingly.

  27. Lowetide says:

    bbf_iii: But he’s not UFA until July 1st, 2017 and the draft is supposed to be before then. This issue is why Nurse and McDavid can be considered second year pros, because legally they will still be in the second year of their contracts.

    I think our own ability to reason these things out should guide our way. But as I mentioned earlier, the NHL is the NHL so maybe the Oilers will have to protect Reijo Ruotsalainen too! 🙂

  28. Gordies Elbow says:

    bbf_iii: But he’s not UFA until July 1st, 2017 and the draft is supposed to be before then. This issue is why Nurse and McDavid can be considered second year pros, because legally they will still be in the second year of their contracts.

    There are 16 NMC contracts (per GeneralFanager) that fall into this category. I can’t see the NHLPA agreeing to forcing teams to keep open 16 slots, thereby exposing 16 more active members to the draft, for contracts that have, for all intents and purposes, completed. If eligible for a buyout, they would be zero dollar buyouts.

    The contracts are Chris Pronger (ARI), Antoine Vermette (ARI), Tuukka Rask (BOS), James Wisniewski (CAR), Dennis Wideman (CGY), Jarome Iginla (COL), Patrick Sharp (DAL), Pavel Datsyuk (DET), Andrew Ference (EDM), Thomas Vanek (MIN), Dan Girardi (NYR), R.J. Umberger (PHI), Joe Thornton (SJS), Patrick Marleau (SJS), Ben Bishop (TBL), and Nathan Horton (TOR)

    I’d say that it’s likely they agreed on a exemption for LTIR players, and if the player is not LTIR, a paper $0 buyout.

  29. bbf_iii says:

    Gordies Elbow: There are 16 NMC contracts (per GeneralFanager) that fall into this category. I can’t see the NHLPA agreeing to forcing teams to keep open 16 slots, thereby exposing 16 more active members to the draft, for contracts that have, for all intents and purposes, completed. If eligible for a buyout, they would be zero dollar buyouts.

    The contracts are Chris Pronger(ARI), Antoine Vermette (ARI), Tuukka Rask (BOS), James Wisniewski (CAR), Dennis Wideman (CGY), Jarome Iginla (COL), Patrick Sharp (DAL), Pavel Datsyuk (DET), Andrew Ference(EDM), Thomas Vanek (MIN), Dan Girardi (NYR), R.J. Umberger(PHI), Joe Thornton (SJS), Patrick Marleau (SJS), Ben Bishop (TBL), and Nathan Horton (TOR)

    I’d say that it’s likely they agreed on a exemption for LTIR players, and if the player is not LTIR, a paper $0 buyout.

    That is also possible and another hope for the Oilers and others. It would be really funny if Arizona had to protect Pronger.

    Nathan Horton should not be on your list I think though, as he is signed until 2020.

    My concern is that the NHLPA’s hands are legally tied, where the CBA dictates teams have to honor the terms of contracts until their completion. Any deviation, however reasonable, could be iffy on that basis. The NHLPA could agree to waive the requirement to honor terms in that situation, but they may want something in return and I don’t know what would even be possible without opening up the CBA.

  30. kinger_OIL says:

    Moose,

    Nice post – I get where you are coming from when you say: “Simply staying in the top 3 afforded the Oilers an opportunity to take the sting out of trading Eberle or RNH for a top parking RHD, by having something approaching a plug-and-play replacement in Mathews or the two Finn’s”

    – Part of the reason we are in this mess though is that our forward first rounders for the last 7 years all got gifted spots on our roster.

    – Trading RNH for a D, and putting in Matthews you have another rookie in a top-6 spot: again. Same with Laine/Pulju for Ebs. And we have so many young in top-6 already

    – I agree that if no matter what, were we to trade the pick, yes #1 is worth way more to trade than #4. But the temptation to draft and play another 18 year old next would be too great I submit

    – So now when we trade an Ebs for a D, the wing “replacement” isn’t another 18 year old that is going to make a tonne of mistakes.

    – Drafting @ 4 the “wait another year and have our youngsters develop” is officially over.

    P.S.: it’s really hard to see how we become a playoff team next year: that’s putting an unrealistic expectation on what Chia can accomplish this summer: but as LT says: we wait

  31. fan_since86 says:

    I agree with trading eberle. We just have to make sure we’re getting a top flight RW coming back to us in free agency. I like okoposo. He’s big, can play with high end skill and can put up points

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: We will have to agree to disagree.

    Honestly I would give up our first pick this year and next year, RNH and Klef to get Faulk and Jordsn Staal. Add in one more decent dmen in a seperate move and the Oll are a legit playoff team.

  33. John Chambers says:

    Anyone think Columbus might select PLD or Tkachuk instead of the Finn?

    Probably not with a Finn at the helm.

  34. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    Eberle doesnt get you Hamonic who asked for a trade to pretty much the Oilers.Canes have Skinner so they really don’t want Eberle.So if we don’t want to draft a dman high and we don’t want to give up a small redundant forward how do you fix this defense.Demers is ok as a stop gap but in the long run you need to aim higher for #1 right handed D.

    I also think you are underappreciating Barrie a lot.He is better than Demers and Hamonic.He would be above them and is not in the same boat as vatanen

    Totally agree with this. Would our 4th overall get it done? Or does it make more sense to offer sheet him? Barrie is way better than Vattanen and I think we have the potential of a better nastier version of Hamonic in Darnell Nurse.

  35. Lowetide says:

    John Chambers:
    Anyone think Columbus might select PLD or Tkachuk instead of the Finn?

    Probably not with a Finn at the helm.

    I looked at the top three earlier, just to see if there was anything. It breaks perfectly for all three teams. Just the worst, although No. 4 is a good spot with fine players.

  36. Woodguy says:

    bbf_iii: But he’s not UFA until July 1st, 2017 and the draft is supposed to be before then. This issue is why Nurse and McDavid can be considered second year pros, because legally they will still be in the second year of their contracts.

    It’s the NHL so you never know, but what LT is saying is that expiring contracts will not have to be protected, NMC or not.

    The player will be a free agent just weeks after the expansion draft.

    It makes no sense to require an expiring contract to be protected.

    The more interesting ones are Pronger and Horton.

    Since Horton is TOR property I expect an exemption for LTIR cases because Lou and because NHL.

  37. jake70 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Moose,

    Nice post – I get where you are coming from when you say: “Simply staying in the top 3 afforded the Oilers an opportunity to take the sting out of trading Eberle or RNH for a top parking RHD, by having something approaching a plug-and-play replacement in Mathews or the two Finn’s”

    – So when we trade an Ebs for a D, the wing “replacement” isn’t another 18 year old that is going to make a tonne of mistakes.

    Remember though, if it’s Ebs going, so are his D zone fog and 6M. And better D covers up the 18 year old’s mistakes. And maybe Laine on 97’s wing gets you more goals than Ebs there. I am quite irritated today when I think about dropping any spots in the draft – don’t tell any Leaf fans that.

  38. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I looked at the top three earlier, just to see if there was anything. It breaks perfectly for all three teams. Just the worst, although No. 4 is a good spot with fine players.

    Pulijarvi might help shake Kerby Rychel loose.

    He’s built in the Chiarelli mould.

  39. bbf_iii says:

    Woodguy: It’s the NHL so you never know, but what LT is saying is that expiring contracts will not have to be protected, NMC or not.

    The player will be a free agent just weeks after the expansion draft.

    It makes no sense to require an expiring contract to be protected.

    The more interesting ones are Pronger and Horton.

    Since Horton is TOR property I expect an exemption for LTIR cases because Lou and because NHL.

    I mentioned this in a previous post, but I am not arguing against the reasonableness of not requiring teams to protect players with NMCs who will be UFAs. I am just concerned if the legalities of the CBA force the league’s hand.

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Kinger:

    I’ll not cite your lengthy post (from last thread) but do take issue with being charged with “selective disclosure” by citing Goals. Goals have been the fundamental unit of currency in hockey since long before there were “advanced stats” and it remains so in my opinion. You start with Goals and you work your way from there. Often times raw totals get used to describe a player’s proficiency at the task.

    “Ovi’s a proven 50-goal scorer”
    “Yabbut but when you divide by 60 it’s way less impressive!”

    Jordan Eberle joined the Oilers in 2010 and from that day to this has scored more goals & points than any other Oiler. He is a proven scorer. Nail Yakupov joined the Oilers in 2013 & after a promising rookie year he has struggled to produce three seasons in a row. He’s never been a 20-goal scorer & this year he wasn’t even a 10-goal scorer. Yes there are mitigating circumstance like that asshat linesman who pulled him down but he’s also had long dry spells each & every year. If you want to take a few tiny sample sizes and derive a 25-goal scorer from that fill yer boots but it seems like no sure thing from this distance.

  41. Woodguy says:

    bbf_iii: I mentioned this in a previous post, but I am not arguing against the reasonableness of not requiring teams to protect players with NMCs who will be UFAs. I am just concerned if the legalities of the CBA force the league’s hand.

    The CBA doesn’t address expansion at all.

    The NHLPA and NHL came to an agreement on NMCs vis a vi expansion recently (although haven’t published the agreement, so we speculate)

    Given that nothing had to conform to CBA language I highly doubt any weird like having to protect an expiring contract will happen.

  42. murphy says:

    I can’t believe how quickly everyone wants to give away nuge and nurse. Come on people, i understand you have to give to get but this years 1st, nexts years, nuge and nurse for faulk and jordan staal?? I would rather nuge then staal. Give nurse some time hes a very young D, lets not even get started on the picks. Thats the kind of trade that can be looked back on in a few years of why macdavid will never get a cup.

    Keep nuge, keep nurse. Shop eberle, reinhart, the first, a few other spare parts and god forgive me for saying this but….. Dr drai. I would shop him with the caveat being i only trade one of him and the pick, we need a big center somewhere on this train. Whichever gets you in the conversation for subban this year goes, a chance at an elite D should not be squandered.

    Keeping nuge sets up a lot for the rest of the roster, shipping him away means we need to find a tough minutes center, easier said than done.

  43. RJ2016 says:

    Here’s two questions…

    The top tier of players for the draft were 1-3. The fourth pick will be amongst a second tier of players. How deep is that pool?

    What is the gap between Chychrun, Sergachev and Juolevi from Bean, Fabbro and McAvoy?

    Most of the suggested trades are looking at trading the #4 for an NHLer, but given the dearth of prospects in the system, I think it’s just as viable for them to trade down a few spots and pick up another second or third and still be able to grab a Fabbro or McAvoy.

    If you know the depth of the second tier, you know the range you could comfortably trade down and still grab a quality prospect. Of course, this assumes quality drafting ability.

  44. kinger_OIL says:

    jake70,

    – That’s the trap that we thankfully won’t fall into: a top-6 comprised of a 18,19,20,23 & 24 year old (Laine, McD, Drai, RNH, Hall) gets pushed around. Can’t win in NHL with that. Experience matters

  45. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Why are Demers/ Hamonic ahead of Vatanen/ Barrie? The latter play more minutes. Vatanen PKs and first unit PP. Vatanen/ Barrie would be Karlsson light next year if anchored with Sekera. Then Klefbom and Fayne/ Hamonic could be an elite shutdown pair. I don’t think Demers can fit in under the cap if you pay Vatanen/ Barrie. The only thing that might help the team signing Demers is his missuse by Ruff in the playoffs, playing Russell more than Demers…yuck

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The thing is when you get to write the rules, you get to write the rules.

    So you can write them like this:

    “players with NMC in effect on the day of the expansion draft…”

    or, you can write them like this:

    “players with NMC in effect on the first day of the expanded league’s regular season schedule…”

    The only question is why would the folks who get to write the rules choose to write them one way, and not the other.

    And, yes… “out of profound silliness” is an acceptable answer. It would also happen to be the only acceptable answer.

    Stop worrying and learn how to love the NHL/PA.

  47. Doug McLachlan says:

    Woodguy,

    Didn’t realize there were 16 contracts that could be affected. Larger number than I thought.

    Completely agree with you and LT that some exception should be allowed but until confirmed, I would keep it in the back of your mind.

    Expansion drafts are for the purpose of exposing talent (and in a cap world, contracts) to the expansion team(s). Usually everyone conspires to screw over the new guy(s) but up until now the new guy(s) weren’t bringing a half-billion to the table.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yes there are mitigating circumstance like that asshat linesman who pulled him down but he’s also had long dry spells each & every year. If you want to take a few tiny sample sizes and derive a 25-goal scorer from that fill yer boots but it seems like no sure thing from this distance.

    The biggest mitigating circumstance has been Yak’s centers compared to Eberle’s.

    There is no question that Eberle has scored more, but there are some interesting things to look at.

    The Oilers scored at the same rate when McDavid-Yak were on the ice (3.80/60) as McDavid-Eberle (3.79). Eberle got more of the goal share than Yak, but the team wasn’t better.

    Eberle has certainly scored more with RNH over the last two years than Yak:

    RNH & Eberle 2.77/60 (1266min together)
    RNH & Yak 1.45/60 (145min together)

    Maybe Yak would have scored more if he had more time with RNH to find a rhythm? We’ll probably never know.

    The other thing is the PP.

    Last 2 years GFON/60 5v4:

    Eberle 6.45/60
    Yak 5.79/60

    Not a ton to give there either, but some for sure. Yak played a lot of 2nd unit as well.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think the obvious solution to this problem is to simply give everyone a NMC.

  50. kinger_OIL says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    – You are way smarter about hockey than I am, an awesome journalist and a much better poster than I am for sure: I enjoy all your ruminations and hockey and non-hockey posts greatly.

    – I don’t want to pick a fight with you, because you will win!

    – Eberle is an elite goal-scorer full-stop, a sure thing to score 25 goals. Yak has disappointed for sure. Extrapolating Yak’s small sample-size vs Eberle’s large sample is problematic indeed

    – Sorry if my tone was confrontational. I just “think” that if Yak was given Ebs opportunity, the drop-off wouldn’t be severe. But what do I know: Its just my opinion based on small sample size and gut.

    This was the data I used to get to my “gut” about Yak vs Ebs, small sample sizes to be sure:
    – Yak’s GF/60 with McD vs Ebs is exactly the same: 3.79 vs 3.8
    – Yak’s GF/60 with Hall is 2.82 vs 2.92 with Ebs (who played with him 5x as much, last 3 years)
    – Yak is way better with Leon than Ebs (1.4 vs .84)
    – Ebs is better with RNH, garbage with Letetsu. Yak scores more with Letesu than Ebs with Drai!

  51. Gordies Elbow says:

    bbf_iii: That is also possible and another hope for the Oilers and others. It would be really funny if Arizona had to protect Pronger.

    Nathan Horton should not be on your list I think though, as he is signed until 2020.

    My concern is that the NHLPA’s hands are legally tied, where the CBA dictates teams have to honor the terms of contracts until their completion. Any deviation, however reasonable, could be iffy on that basis. The NHLPA could agree to waive the requirement to honor terms in that situation, but they may want something in return and I don’t know what would even be possible without opening up the CBA.

    According to GeneralFanager, he has an NMC (2013-14 through 2016-17); Limited NTC (2017-18 through 2019-20); (Source: Columbus Dispatch)

    NHLPA and the NHL recently completed their expansion negotiation. I can’t see owners wanting to put more of their assets into the pool to be picked, and I can’t see the NHLPA wanting 16 more members to be exposed.

    PS: I can’t see how the new owner would care, he’s not going to pick an expiring contract or Nathan Horton.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: We will have to agree to disagree.

    Funny thing is that you both agree that Eberle wouldn’t be enough for Faulk.

    Ha!

    I agree with LT that if Oilers offer Hall then Francis faxes it into the NHL in 20 seconds and runs away laughing.

    They’re both UFA 2020 and Hall is by far the more significant underpayment.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Gordies Elbow: According to GeneralFanager, he has an NMC (2013-14 through 2016-17); Limited NTC (2017-18 through 2019-20); (Source: Columbus Dispatch)

    NHLPA and the NHL recently completed their expansion negotiation. I can’t see owners wanting to put more of their assets into the pool to be picked, and I can’t see the NHLPA wanting 16 more members to be exposed.

    Good catch.

    Probably why there’s not expansion draft this year.

    Lou wouldn’t allow it.

  54. Moose says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Moose,

    Nice post – I get where you are coming from when you say: “Simply staying in the top 3 afforded the Oilers an opportunity to take the sting out of trading Eberle or RNH for a top parking RHD, by having something approaching a plug-and-play replacement in Mathews or the two Finn’s”

    – Part of the reason we are in this mess though is that our forward first rounders for the last 7 years all got gifted spots on our roster.

    – Trading RNH for a D, and putting in Matthews you have another rookie in a top-6 spot: again.Same with Laine/Pulju for Ebs.And we have so many young in top-6 already

    – I agree that if no matter what, were we to trade the pick, yes #1 is worth way more to trade than #4.But the temptation to draft and play another 18 year old next would be too great I submit

    – So now when we trade an Ebs for a D, the wing “replacement” isn’t another 18 year old that is going to make a tonne of mistakes.

    – Drafting @ 4 the “wait another year and have our youngsters develop” is officially over.

    P.S.: it’s really hard to see how we become a playoff team next year: that’s putting an unrealistic expectation on what Chia can accomplish this summer: but as LT says: we wait

    All valid points RE: another 18YO, and Chia sort of said as much in terms of stopping that cycle of under-development. In a basic sense, there just aren’t many scenarios where having a lesser asset (#4) is superior to having a greater asset (#1-3). It narrows your options and increases organizational costs to fill your holes.

    For example: We can debate whether trading for $9 million Subban is a smart move given McDavid will need a similar deal in 2 years, BUT, it’s hard to even fathom how that’s an option now without that top tier pick. Sure, it’s possible, but now the cost is probably another roster player in lieu of a pick that’s 2+ years away from impact.

    Totally agree that it’s hard to see Chia filling all the necessary holes to make this a legit playoff team, and that’s the depressing part. To think of wasting McDavid’s ELC is a truly shocking indictment of the organizational mismanagement that came before him.

  55. AsiaOil says:

    John Chambers:
    Anyone think Columbus might select PLD or Tkachuk instead of the Finn?

    Probably not with a Finn at the helm.

    I’ll disagree with LT and suggest the top 3 does not break perfectly for Columbus. Their center depth is: Dubinsky, Wennburg, Karlsson & Campbell. That’s awful. Dubinsky is a 15 goal per year guy, the Euros are kids who have never scored 10 and Campbell is waiver wire material. A Fin RW is not going to make it any better and there is a very good case to be made that Columbus passes on Pulajarvi and takes Dubois instead. Would not surprise me one…..little…..bit. If that happens then trading down a touch for an asset and taking a dman may make sense. I like Pullujarvi (big, fast, defensively responsible) but his stick skills are still very raw. He needs a couple of years.

    Best case scenario is that we make a trade or two in July. Yak for Seversen or Eberle for Hamonic or Vatenen – whaever. The we have the freedom to make hockey trades at the draft (or just pick Dubois) and fill in the remaining gaps at UFA. A lineup something like this would be OK:

    Hall RNH Drai
    Pou CMD Eriksson
    Maroon Shaw Kassian
    Hendricks Testube Khaira

    Klef Hamonic
    Sekera Vatanen
    Davidson GR Seversen

    Talbot/UFA

  56. sliderule says:

    In the draft since 2005 there have been 13 defencemen drafted in the top 10 from the CHL who scored more than .7 pts per game in their draft year.

    Here are the names Alzner ,Hickey ,Doughty ,Bogosian ,Pietrangelo,Hamilton,Rielly !Dumba,Jones ,Pouliot ,Koekek !ekblad ,Proverov..

    Pouliot and Koekek were taken 8 and 10 in the 2012 draft and Proverov was a 2015 draftee so the story hasn’t been written for them much like it hasn’t been written fo forwards taken in that range of recent drafts.

    Now the oilers have maybe one defencemen in Sekera that you can call a top one or two.All the other names are hope as they haven’t done jack shit.

    Then in this draft you have three defencemen who meet the criteria but no one wants to draft them..Now if they had major flaws in their game I could see this but they don’t.No heavy feet like Ekblad was knocked for.In fact from reports and my viewings they all skate exceptional..They all are over 6-2 and are either over 200 lbs or projected to be .

    No the fandom wants to again pick forwards who have scored at junior level but have skating issues but no worries as they have grit.You know that thing that most of posters here laugh at.

    Chia did mention that he can’t understand the opposition to picking a defenceman.I hope he keeps his sanity as in my opinion considering the condition of the oiler defence opposition to drafting one of them is insanity.

  57. JimmyV1965 says:

    PC has huge challenge ahead of him. Trade RNH it leaves a hole. Trade Ebs it leaves a hole. Trade Hall you have given up the offensive driver on the second line. Trade Dry you lose a very creative big C with potential to dominate. To me that leaves:
    1. 2016 first round (can trade down too)
    2. 2017 first round
    3. LHD (prefer Klef because he has high value and history of injuries)
    4. 2C (would rather trade RNH because Dry has shown more creativity and is bigger. However, if we trade RNH we need to get another back up centre to fill in while Dry apprentices)

    Although I would love to keep the picks we simply can’t afford it. We need to get better now. PC and his team will have to sharpen their pencils and stock the shelves with 2nd round picks and later. It’s still early, but it looks like they did a great job with that last year.

  58. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:

    Since Horton is TOR property I expect an exemption for LTIR cases because Lou and because NHL.

    I’m sure Horton will be willing to waive his NMC. Why wouldn’t he? The NHL cannot stop a player from waiving his NMC.

  59. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy,

    kinger_OIL,

    Thanks for clarifying. Sorry, but “selective disclosure” landed wrong, especially given my initial post was about 3 lines long & cited goals as a measure of goal scorers.

    Dig a little deeper as I did in Eberle’s season review over at CoH, and the underlying numbers seem to be solidly in his corner. I looked at Relative stats in 6 flow-of-play metrics, from possession stats like CF%, FF% and SF% to scoring chances SCF% and HSCF%, and finally to GF%. Relative to team Eberle was a positive in all 6 categories in all 6 years. 36 out of 36.

    For his part Yakupov has played just 4 years but he has negative REL’s in 16 of 24 categories including HSCF% in 4 out of 4 years and GF% in the last 3 years, all with ugly numerals behind the minus signs. It’s not pretty at all.

    Now I will grant you some of that is line mates but at the same time several coaches in a row have seemed mighty reluctant to give Yak time with and against the toughs. Whereas Eberle is an automatic in the top six and has held his own, at least when considered against his sad sack teammates.

    There’s also that pesky right shot thing. No doubt Yak’s leftiness has cost him time on the first PP, but so too has his tendency to whiff on one timers far too frequently. One power play goal in 160 minutes or whatever it was this season is beyond sad — it should be his strength.

    Give him a regular gig and some of that might work itself out, but even then you might be looking at a top 6 with 6 lefties on it. Bad luck for the kid that he landed in this mess, but he hasn’t been helping much either.

  60. dustrock says:

    If the Cuckoos I mean Ducks are dumb enough to fire Boudreau let’s ask about Lindholm too.

  61. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: There’s also that pesky right shot thing.

    This is so overlooked its not even funny.

    How good would a left handed Ovechkin be with a left handed Backstrom on the PP?
    Just like on defense, handedness matters up front, especially on the PP.

    I see a whole bunch of Oiler lineups with the top 6 all left handers.

    EBERLE is the only skilled right handed shot in the system.

    If EBERLE could bring back a good Dman, Id be OK with that trade, but man we need to find another skilled right shot.

    Other wise, people better like seeing a bunch of Letestu on the 1st PP unit.

  62. Gordies Elbow says:

    I see many thinking that Edmonton should move the pick, so I started really taking a look at Pierre-Luc Dubois (who I think is the best player at 4, and most scouts seem to agree.)

    I took a look at their draft years, and using Behindthenets.ca NHL equivalency (.28 QMJHL, .30 WHL) to try and equalize the players, their NHLE in their draft year is the following.

    Player A: 16g – 21a – 37pts – 41pim, 6’3″, 202lbs
    Player B: 15g – 26a – 40pts – 9pim, 6’1″, 209lbs

    Player A is Pierre-Luc Dubois.

    Player B is Leon Draisaitl.

    If I were Chiarelli, I’d be very careful moving the pick, especially so, as there will be unprotected defender’s available due to the expansion draft, and PLD is protected.

    I’m starting to believe the play is to keep the pick.

  63. JimmyV1965 says:

    The more I read the more depressed I get about our chances of landing the players we need. Argh. How can the Flames get Hamilton with a mid first and two thirds and we have to trade heaven and earth to get anything?

  64. Woodguy says:

    godot10: I’m sure Horton will be willing to waive his NMC.Why wouldn’t he? The NHL cannot stop a player from waiving his NMC.

    I haven’t read the napkin that Gary and Don drew the agreement up on but I’d initially agree that a player could waive.

  65. gogliano says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    I see many thinking that Edmonton should move the pick, so I started really taking a look at Pierre-Luc Dubois (who I think is the best player at 4, and most scouts seem to agree.)

    I took a look at their draft years, and using Behindthenets.ca NHL equivalency (.28 QMJHL, .30 WHL) to try and equalize the players, their NHLE in their draft year is the following.

    Player A: 16g – 21a – 37pts – 41pim, 6’3″, 202lbs
    Player B: 15g – 26a – 40pts – 9pim, 6’1″, 209lbs

    Player A is Pierre-Luc Dubois.

    Player B is Leon Draisaitl.

    If I were Chiarelli, I’d be very careful moving the pick, especially so, as there will be unprotected defender’s available due to the expansion draft, and PLD is protected.

    I’m starting to believe the play is to keep the pick.

    Dubois gets a boost for doing it as a kid 8 months younger than Leon was at the time.

    Regardless, I agree that that is the kind of player we’re dealing away if we trade the pick.

  66. Oilspill says:

    EBERLE has much better instincts around the net. Yak just processes the play slower. Ebs reads and anticipates the play Yak reacts. Neither are worth anything defensively. Yak can’t play with top lines because he can’t figure what the others are doing. He has the physical skills but not the cognitive part.

    kinger_OIL:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    – You are way smarter about hockey than I am, an awesome journalist and a much better poster than I am for sure: I enjoy all your ruminations and hockey and non-hockey posts greatly.

    – I don’t want to pick a fight with you, because you will win!

    – Eberle is an elite goal-scorer full-stop, a sure thing to score 25 goals.Yak has disappointed for sure.Extrapolating Yak’s small sample-size vs Eberle’s large sample is problematic indeed

    – Sorry if my tone was confrontational.I just “think” that if Yak was given Ebs opportunity, the drop-off wouldn’t be severe.But what do I know: Its just my opinion based on small sample size and gut.

    This was the data I used to get to my “gut” about Yak vs Ebs, small sample sizes to be sure:
    – Yak’s GF/60 with McD vs Ebs is exactly the same: 3.79 vs 3.8
    – Yak’s GF/60 with Hall is 2.82 vs 2.92 with Ebs (who played with him 5x as much, last 3 years)
    – Yak is way better with Leon than Ebs (1.4 vs .84)
    – Ebs is better with RNH, garbage with Letetsu. Yak scores more with Letesu than Ebs with Drai!

  67. Gordies Elbow says:

    gogliano,

    I think that draft fatigue, that Edmonton has drafted so high so often, impacts what fans (and maybe what teams) think is fair value for players.

    Given the numbers and that Leon Draisaitl is an unprotected player in the upcoming Las Vegas Black Knights expansion draft, wouldn’t you move a similar protected player rather than an unprotected player?

    Makes moving down more interesting, as well, as players in this draft are protected. Might be a good time to move a protected player for one that isn’t going to need protection.

    Interesting times, to say the least….

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    gogliano: Dubois gets a boost for doing it as a kid 8 months younger than Leon was at the time.

    Regardless, I agree that that is the kind of player we’re dealing away if we trade the pick.b

    Don’t forget Leon spent his entire youth playing in Germany against incredibly inferior competition. The learning curve would have been huge.

  69. rickithebear says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    I see many thinking that Edmonton should move the pick, so I started really taking a look at Pierre-Luc Dubois (who I think is the best player at 4, and most scouts seem to agree.)

    I took a look at their draft years, and using Behindthenets.ca NHL equivalency (.28 QMJHL, .30 WHL) to try and equalize the players, their NHLE in their draft year is the following.

    Player A: 16g – 21a – 37pts – 41pim, 6’3″, 202lbs
    Player B: 15g – 26a – 40pts – 9pim, 6’1″, 209lbs

    Player A is Pierre-Luc Dubois.

    Player B is Leon Draisaitl.

    If I were Chiarelli, I’d be very careful moving the pick, especially so, as there will be unprotected defender’s available due to the expansion draft, and PLD is protected.

    I’m starting to believe the play is to keep the pick.

    Moore important than league.
    is age.

    the cuage curves and draft year start sept 17 50% and sept 14 year younger 75% of draft year production at age 21, 22

    So draisatl Oct 24 age nhle .528
    his 64gm 38G 105P
    translates to
    26G 71P in 82gm at 22yr

    Dubois june 24 age NHLE .694
    his 64gm 42G 99P
    translates to
    37G 88P in 82 GM
    but what is sick is his even production.
    which translates to
    29 EVG 66 EVP.

    Mcdcvid even age NHLE .583
    47gm 33 EVG 44 EVA
    translated to
    33 evg 78 EVP

    Mathews age NHLE .500
    played in Swiss league so numbers need to be (.40/.3)1.33333 times
    36gm 32G 61P = 1.70 PPG
    translates to
    37G 70P
    this is not his even numbers

    Hall Age NHLE .541
    57 gm 40g 106P
    translates
    31G 82P
    even
    57gm 26 EVG 34 EVA
    translates to
    22 EVG 50 EVP

    Mckinnon age NHLE .740
    44gm 32G 75P
    translates to
    44G 103P
    Even
    44gm 22EVG 29 EVA
    translates to
    29 EVG 68 EVP

    Dylan Strome .620
    Draft +1 without Mcdavid Age NHLE .448
    56gm 37g 74A 111P
    translates to
    24G 70P

    Marner Draft+1 .465
    57gm 39G 116P
    translates to
    26G 77P

    I am petty damn excited about a big forward who like to play a physical game
    and can skate past opposition team defenders.

    who’s 29 EVG and 66 EVP is there with mackinaws EVP and Driastl’s, Stromes, total points
    and total points is better than Hall, Sequin, Marners.

    Please draft this freak!

  70. Mesmer says:

    Woodguy,

    I haven’t seen that napkin either, but from what I’ve been able to coddle I believe that all NMC’s will have to be protected by teams, even the expiring ones. My understanding is that the league wants to avoid teams having handshake agreements on new deals with expiring NMC players where they would sign back with their former team as soon as they hit UFA status. It also naturally stops teams from adding 2 year NMC’s to all contracts signed this offseason as another method of cheating the expansion draft.
    All limited NMC’s and all NTC’s are fair game though.
    I have read it in a few locations, but most of it comes from Gary Lawless.
    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl-players-association-won-t-stand-in-the-way-of-expansion-1.480529

  71. raventalon40 says:

    sliderule:
    In the draft since 2005 there have been 13 defencemen drafted in the top 10 from the CHL who scored more than .7 pts per game in their draft year.

    Here are the names Alzner ,Hickey ,Doughty ,Bogosian ,Pietrangelo,Hamilton,Rielly !Dumba,Jones ,Pouliot ,Koekek !ekblad ,Proverov..

    Pouliot and Koekek were taken 8 and 10 in the 2012 draftand Proverov was a 2015 draftee so the story hasn’t been written for them much like it hasn’t been written fo forwards taken in that range of recent drafts.

    Now the oilers have maybe one defencemen in Sekera that you can call a top one or two.All the other names are hopeas they haven’t done jack shit.

    Then in this draft you have three defencemen who meet the criteria but no one wants to draft them..Now if they had major flaws in their game I could see this but they don’t.No heavy feet like Ekblad was knocked for.In fact from reports and my viewings they all skate exceptional..They all are over 6-2 and are either over 200 lbs or projected to be .

    No the fandom wants to again pick forwards who have scored at junior level but have skating issues but no worries as they have grit.You know that thing that most of posters here laugh at.

    Chia did mention that he can’t understand the opposition to picking a defenceman.I hope he keeps his sanity as in my opinion considering the condition of theoiler defence opposition to drafting one of them is insanity.

    I wouldn’t mind that. Trade down a few spots, pick up a roster player or some additional picks, and still draft the D-man you want who will be a few years down the road after a few contracts expire.

  72. stevezie says:

    LT, i see that you’re cheering for the centres three, and you’re also putting a top 9 rhc on the shopping list. These are both fine positions, but i am having trouble reconciling them with each other.

    What am i missing? Did i miss the part where you move rnh or drai to the wing? I miss a lot.

    (I think we should chase a good rhc and if we get him look at trading rnh or drai, but keep the three until he’s ours. I’d be willing to overpay and expose Backes. Him getting taken could be a blessing.)

  73. Genjutsu says:

    raventalon40: I wouldn’t mind that. Trade down a few spots, pick up a roster player or some additional picks, and still draft the D-man you want who will be a few years down the road after a few contracts expire.

    I think this is all going to come back to what LT was talking about before: it depends on the ask. You don’t just trade the pick to move down and pick up a warm body.

    However if the right player is available, say a RHS RW that can play in the top 6 or RD that can pay top 4 or a RHS C that can pay top 9 then you move down.

    Otherwise keeping the pic and looking elsewhere to address team needs seems prudent.

  74. Yeti says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    I see many thinking that Edmonton should move the pick, so I started really taking a look at Pierre-Luc Dubois (who I think is the best player at 4, and most scouts seem to agree.)

    I took a look at their draft years, and using Behindthenets.ca NHL equivalency (.28 QMJHL, .30 WHL) to try and equalize the players, their NHLE in their draft year is the following.

    Player A: 16g – 21a – 37pts – 41pim, 6’3″, 202lbs
    Player B: 15g – 26a – 40pts – 9pim, 6’1″, 209lbs

    Player A is Pierre-Luc Dubois.

    Player B is Leon Draisaitl.

    If I were Chiarelli, I’d be very careful moving the pick, especially so, as there will be unprotected defender’s available due to the expansion draft, and PLD is protected.

    I’m starting to believe the play is to keep the pick.

    Interesting stuff, and now that we can put dreams of the top-3 behind us, the analytics crew are going to provide fascinating insights onto our likely pick at #4. I think the key thing may be timing: how many years will it take for Dubois (or another) to become a contributor at the NHL level and where does that fit into the McDavid timeline? It would be beautiful to have a strong prospect join the fun for the final year of Connor’s entry level deal so long as we can address immediate needs from other sources.

  75. AsiaOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Bruce you’ve fallen for the boxcar approach to Eberle and never mentioned his ES performance which is completely middle of the road and falling for the last 4 seasons. His boxcars are driven by tons of PP time and possession numbers by the best linemates possible. This year was typical. Mediocre defensively, not strong enough to break or support a cycle, and no one timer. Kind of funny you nick Yak for his one-timer and entirely overlook Eberle’s. He’s totally replaceable as he cheats for offense and loafs on defense which forces his center to cover his regular defensive lapses. He’s not good enough offensively for that and I’d far prefer a better rounded RW. Eriksson for only money and trading Eberle for a dman puts us far ahead of the game.

  76. OF17 says:

    Yeti: Interesting stuff, and now that we can put dreams of the top-3 behind us, the analytics crew are going to provide fascinating insights onto our likely pick at #4. I think the key thing may be timing: how many years will it take for Dubois (or another) to become a contributor at the NHL level and where does that fit into the McDavid timeline? It would be beautiful to have a strong prospect join the fun for the final year of Connor’s entry level deal so long as we can address immediate needs from other sources.

    I think DuBois is one of the reinforcements, not one of the guys that will get us into the playoffs. He’s at least a year away from being a reasonable shot to make the team, and if we know our hockey squad, that likely means he’ll make it in a year. Even if we miss next year, getting into the playoffs the following year will depend on more than a rookie forward, and thus 2-3 years from now when he’s no longer a rookie, he’ll provide sustain and hopefully an extra push for what players before him have established.

    Adding a cheap contributor of his calibre for the last year of McDavid’s ELC and the first two years of his extension would be a huge gain.

  77. AsiaOil says:

    Given the Columbus black hole at center – I think the end result of the lottery is that Pullujarvi falls into our lap no matter where their GM hails from. Kekäläinen will bluff and mess with Chia but he’s cornered. Pullujarvi is marginally more talented but Dubois is everything Columbus needs. I hope Chia absolutely freezes Kekäläinen and forces him to pick – because no matter which way Columbus goes – it works out just fine for the Oilers. After watching a bit of Dubois – I’d be delighted to have him – unless someone drops a very nice young RHD like Trouba into our lap. Might just happen if Columbus takes Dubois and WPG sees an opportunity to draft both Fins.

  78. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: We will have to agree to disagree.

    Funniest line of the night and everyone missed it.

  79. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: It works out best for the Oilers if he is LTIR-d. I think that will be the way they go.

    Would they be forced to protect Ference if there is an expansion draft next summer? Our would those on expiring contracts be exempt?

  80. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Funniest line of the night and everyone missed it.

    WG got it, but didn’t think it was funny. 🙂

  81. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: Would they be forced to protect Ference if there is an expansion draft next summer?Our would those on expiring contracts be exempt?

    There is much about the expansion draft we do not know. My experience with NHL expansion drafts is not to react until the final final rules of engagement.

  82. sliderule says:

    Nice write up on the top three defencemen by Lowetide on ON

    I do have to disagree with his conclusions that the offence is not there for a top five pick.

    Juolevi in the U 20 wjc put up 9 pts in comparison to Doughts 4 pts and Ekblads 2 pts in their u20 .

    Sergachov in only one season in CHL scored about the same as Doughty.

    Chychrun also scored about the same as Doughty after having off season surgery.In the last third of season and in playoffs scored at a point per game.

    All three of these players have top two defenceman written all over them .

    The forwards available either have skating issues or in Nylanders case no interest in defending.

    Come on oilers it’s a no brainer.

  83. frjohnk says:

    sliderule:
    Nice write up on the top three defencemen by Lowetide on ON

    I do have to disagree with his conclusions that the offence is not there for a top five pick.

    Juolevi in the U 20 wjc put up 9 pts in comparison to Doughts 4 pts and Ekblads 2 pts in their u20 .

    Sergachov in only one season in CHL scored about the same as Doughty.

    Chychrun also scored about the same as Doughty after having off season surgery.In the last third of season and in playoffs scored at a point per game.

    All three of these players have top two defenceman written all over them .

    The forwards available either have skating issues or in Nylanders case no interest in defending.

    Come on oilers it’s a no brainer.

    I would suspect the Oilers trade one ( or maybe more) forwards for a Dman ( Dmen)
    In that case we would have 4 top 4 Dmen or close to it.
    We would also have Nurse, Reinhart and the rest of the nice D prospects. Meaning we are loaded with D prospects.

    Our forward depth would be depleted and our forward prospect pool is basically non-existent, especially skilled forwards, so we would need to pick a forward.

    Picking 1 of those Dmen you mention would be good if we trade Nurse and/or Reinhart, but Dmen usually take longer to develop, so it might take longer to bear the fruit of this draft.

    The main thing is this: Chia has to fix the D
    If he trades a forward for a Dman, we will most likely pick a forward
    If he trades a prospect Dman ( Nurse), that is when we might pick a Dman.

  84. Genjutsu says:

    sliderule,

    Despite the need for C in Columbus I don’t see them passing on the other Finn. Dubois hasn’t always played C and Jesse Puljujarvi has played some center as well.

    I wonder if there is real opportunity for a trade with Montreal then as they have lacked a big physical C forever and there should be one of the three D men still there at Montreal’s #9 pick.

    There would have to be another team involved though as they don’t have a RHD or the RW or the RHS C we need.

  85. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Genjutsu,

    #4 to Montreal for #9 and Petry.

    Perfect.

  86. frjohnk says:

    Genjutsu: I wonder if there is real opportunity for a trade with Montreal then as they have lacked a big physical C forever

    Habs had McCarron playing center in the AHL.
    He played mostly center in the 20 games with the Habs.

    But I’m sure they would like to add Dubois

  87. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    frjohnk,

    McCarron hasn’t shown much to suggest his upside is any higher than 3C as of yet.

  88. frjohnk says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    frjohnk,

    McCarron hasn’t shown much to suggest his upside is any higher than 3C as of yet.

    Maybe he makes it as a number 2, but I agree with you.

  89. GCW_69 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    PC has huge challenge ahead of him. Trade RNH it leaves a hole. Trade Ebs it leaves a hole. Trade Hall you have given up the offensive driver on the second line. Trade Dry you lose a very creative big C with potential to dominate. To me that leaves:
    1. 2016 first round (can trade down too)
    2. 2017 first round
    3. LHD (prefer Klef because he has high value and history of injuries)
    4. 2C (would rather trade RNH because Dry has shown more creativity and is bigger. However, if we trade RNH we need to get another back up centre to fill in while Dry apprentices)

    Although I would love to keep the picks we simply can’t afford it.We need to get better now. PC and his team will have to sharpen their pencils and stock the shelves with 2nd round picks and later. It’s still early, but it looks like they did a great job with that last year.

    The real question is, which hole is easiest to fix?

    If you trade Eberle, are the only two credible replacements Okposo and Troy Brouwer, and Brouwer is really stretching? What are the odds of getting one?

    If you trade Nuge, instead of looking for a first line replacement, you are probably looking for a third line centre who can reasonably move to second line in case of injury. Now you have Backes, Hudler, Neilsen, Matthias, Helm, and Lewis as possibilities. Even if you remove Hudler and Matthias, you still have more options.

    If you trade Hall, your options are Lucic, Ladd, Versteeg, Boedker, and that’s about it.

    Based on this seasons free agent crop, trading Eberle seems really problematic.

  90. GCW_69 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    I see many thinking that Edmonton should move the pick, so I started really taking a look at Pierre-Luc Dubois (who I think is the best player at 4, and most scouts seem to agree.)

    I took a look at their draft years, and using Behindthenets.ca NHL equivalency (.28 QMJHL, .30 WHL) to try and equalize the players, their NHLE in their draft year is the following.

    Player A: 16g – 21a – 37pts – 41pim, 6’3″, 202lbs
    Player B: 15g – 26a – 40pts – 9pim, 6’1″, 209lbs

    Player A is Pierre-Luc Dubois.

    Player B is Leon Draisaitl.

    If I were Chiarelli, I’d be very careful moving the pick, especially so, as there will be unprotected defender’s available due to the expansion draft, and PLD is protected.

    I’m starting to believe the play is to keep the pick.

    In the absence of the looming expansion draft, trading the pick would be the only smart option. The team needs to win now. But, expansion is looming and one would expect Nicholson is sharing probabilities of an expansion draft occurring next year with Chiarelli.

    If they think there is a material risk of an expansion draft occurring, then Chiarelli is probably better to keep the pick and use free agency to plug existing holes or ones created through trade.

  91. Bruce McCurdy says:

    AsiaOil:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Bruce you’ve fallen for the boxcar approach to Eberle and never mentioned his ES performance which is completely middle of the road and falling for the last 4 seasons. His boxcars are driven by tons of PP time and possession numbers by the best linemates possible. This year was typical. Mediocre defensively, not strong enough to break or support a cycle, and no one timer. Kind of funny you nick Yak for his one-timer and entirely overlook Eberle’s. He’s totally replaceable as he cheats for offense and loafs on defense which forces his center to cover his regular defensive lapses. He’s not good enough offensively for that and I’d far prefer a better rounded RW. Eriksson for only money and trading Eberle for a dman puts us far ahead of the game.

    I guess 6 years of even strength possession numbers constitutes “ignoring even strength”. Alrighty then.

    Of course I missed the obvious that his results are all linemate driven (I did actually mention that as a contributing factor) but your take is that it is ALL line mates & that Eberle, the highest scorer on the team since the day he arrived, is a passenger/boat anchor.

    Along with your usual list of his apparent failings & absolutely no positives whatsoever.

    But hey, dump him for pucks and bring on another left hand shot in Eriksson to replace him. That’ll solve everything.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Mesmer:
    Woodguy,

    I haven’t seen that napkin either, but from what I’ve been able to coddle I believe that all NMC’s will have to be protected by teams, even the expiring ones. My understanding is that the league wants to avoid teams having handshake agreements on new deals with expiring NMC players where they would sign back with their former team as soon as they hit UFA status. It also naturally stops teams from adding 2 year NMC’s to all contracts signed this offseason as another method of cheating the expansion draft.
    All limited NMC’s and all NTC’s are fair game though.
    I have read it in a few locations, but most of it comes from Gary Lawless.
    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl-players-association-won-t-stand-in-the-way-of-expansion-1.480529

    Yeah, Lawless is the one who broke the deal story.

    That’s the same information that’s been repeated everywhere.

    Doesn’t mention expiring contracts at all.

  93. AsiaOil says:

    Possession is influenced but quality of teammates which you ignore. Scoring is influenced by PP time which you ignore. Eberle’s trend in ES scoring has been going down every year since his big season 5 years ago – again you ignore. Look go ahead and paint lipstick on the guy as much as you want but people on this site will point out the inconstancies. Try counter my points with evidence which you have failed to do instead of trying to divert the debate by calling me negative.

    Bruce McCurdy: I guess 6 years of even strength possession numbers constitutes “ignoring even strength”. Alrighty then.

    Of course I missed the obvious that his results are all linemate driven (I did actually mention that as a contributing factor) but your take is that it is ALL line mates & that Eberle, the highest scorer on the team since the day he arrived, is a passenger/boat anchor.

    Along with your usual list of his apparent failings & absolutely no positives whatsoever.

    But hey, dump him for pucks and bring on another left hand shot in Eriksson to replace him. That’ll solve everything.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca