FINDING THE SWEET SPOT

If we can agree this is Connor McDavid’s team—and it is—then the first order of business in regard to the No. 4 overall selection is simple. Is there a player available who might be a match for 97? Or could that selection be dealt for someone who could/had chem with CMD?

Part of me wonders if it matters, McDavid appears to be the kind of player who can make an Ernest Borgnine-winger look good. Jordan Eberle had 1.32 goals per 60 minutes with McDavid, Maroon scored 1.79 goals per 60 minutes with 97. Everyone played well with McDavid, to be honest. Yakupov posted 3.51/points-per-60 with McDavid.

Then again, if the Oilers use No. 4 on a winger for CMD, and it turns out well, this could be a key moment in franchise history (musical flourish here). And of course, the club could be sending a veteran winger away this summer.

MCDAVID IN JUNIORS

When he was playing with the Erie Otters (this info via Brock Otten, who will be a guest today), CMD played with:

  • Alex DeBrincat the entire 2014-15 season. He scored 51 goals with McDavid, a real shooter (269 shots this past season). He is small—5.07, 160—and I don’t know when he will be drafted but I have him at No. 11 overall.
  • Nick Betz most of the 2014-15 season. He is 6.05, 226 and 54 points in his McDavid season, 46 this year. Otten called him a hulking power winger and wrote in January his points are coming on the 2line away from Strome or DeBrincat. He is a free agent, Edmonton might want to give him a call.
  • Remi Elie (Dallas Stars prospect) is a grinder with skill, aggressive and good at puck retrieval. More here.

Small sniper, power winger with some skill, grinder. Edmonton will be looking at three names on draft day, two from the OHL and one from the QMJHL. If they stay at No. 4—and don’t draft a defender—who will they take?

SLOW WALKING WALTER

tkachuk capture

  • Scott WheelerStylistically, he plays with both power and finesse despite not being an elite skater. He handles the puck well in tight and in stride and can score as well as he pass. His strength as one of the best defensive wingers in the OHL as well as his physicality make him an even more dynamic option at left wing. Defensively, he’s relentless on loose pucks and does an excellent job lifting them off defenders to create turnovers. His maturity, and strength in both ends as a powerful offensive threat both lend well to transferring into an NHL-ready game sooner rather than later. Source

For me, Tkachuk is an unusual player. He has size and skill, and has many elements of a power forward, but has Hemsky-like assist totals at this level. He is not a shooter (191 shots ranks No. 3 on his own line!) but has ridiculous passing skills (77 assists).

  • Tkachuk overall: 57gp, 30-77-107
  • Tkachuk even strength: 57gp, 20-43-63
  • Tkachuk power play: 57gp, 9-33-42
  • Tkachuk penalty kill: 57gp, 1-1-2

He is  6.01, 195 and should be able to physically handle himself in the tough parts of the NHL game as a mature player. With the Finns and Matthews behind the lottery curtain and unavailable, Tkachuk is an interesting option. I will look at Pierre-Luc Dubois tomorrow morning. I think there is a very real chance the Oilers select Tkachuk if they think he could develop into McDavid’s key winger. The defensive aspect of his scouting report is an interesting wrinkle.

TRADES!

chiarellis trades

  • Eric Engels: The Edmonton Oilers, who will select fourth overall in Buffalo, might present an opportunity. General manager Peter Chiarelli is eager to get help on the blue line and is admittedly willing to part with core players, former first overall selections Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins among them, to do itSource

Hall makes no sense—Max Pacioretty is a close match in terms of style and productivity—but the Nuge (sadly) would be a perfect fit for Montreal. Yesterday I wrote if Subban is in fact available, Nuge, the No. 4 overall, Darnell Nurse and Benoit Pouliot for Subban, No. 9 overall and Lars Eller might make sense. In the comments section Rosco wrote would swapping out Pouliot for Yakupov make the money work a little better? Would the risk (unlocking Yak) be too great?

  • Oilers trade RNH, No. 4, Darnell Nurse, Nail Yakupov ($9,363,333 in cap next year)
  • Habs trade Subban, No. 9, Lars Eller ($12,500,000 in cap next year)

With the understanding that Montreal would be insane to make this trade, there is substantial value going their way. Edmonton would have a massive gap at center, but the defense would have its impact player (and $3 million more on the cap). The defense (without adding anyone else):

  • Klefbom—Subban
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Davidson—Gryba

Center? Oilers would need to go get one for sure, a veteran who could offer shelter to the McDavid-Draisaitl 1-2. Maybe Andrew Shaw in Chicago. It is probably too much of a roster upset to consider, but if that is the conversation Chiarelli is having with Montreal, then he should pursue it further.

SCOUTS MEETINGS

The Oilers amateur scouts get together this morning to finalize the list. I can’t tell you why, but for me this has always been the most interesting part of hockey (or any sport). You get the draft right, and things are going to be better for you and that’s for sure. Projecting these kids is damned difficult and being wrong is part of the business. I think Mr. McCagg has correctly identified the Oilers target on defense, here is what I think their big board will look like once the top 10 are ranked today:

  1. C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A).
  2. W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga).
  3. R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga).
  4. C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL).
  5. L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL).
  6. C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL).
  7. LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL).
  8. LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL).
  9. LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL).
  10. C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL).

Years ago, I wrote a post called Trust Your Board. It should have been ‘Trust Your Board and Quit on the Spot when the upper management doesn’t Take Your Advice’ but WordPress doesn’t like long titles. I wonder how much management was involved in all of the picks, from Musil to Yak to Moroz and on down the line. No matter now, the shiv arrived and everyone has moved on.

A youngster like Ethan Bear proves the point to my eye. Teams should trust their boards, the people they send out.  Bear clearly had some issues that took him to No. 124 overall and I am certain those issues are being worked on and ironed out. He might not make it, but there are good things about him and if he works hard, rewards (like WJCs) may come his way.

Scouting, analytics, research, and I imagine these teams get a reasonable medical file by the time the combine is reached. Edmonton has wasted a lot of picks over the years, and from the outside it appears to me some of that came from management and scouting not being on the same page.

Take No. 4 overall. If Peter Chiarelli trades it, or trades down, then the scouts (and fans) have to assume the value is there and time will be the judge. But, if the scouts recommend Tkachuk or Dubois or Juolevi at No. 4 and Chiarelli selects Clayton Keller (he is my pick for late spike, not Logan Brown) instead, then why do the Oilers employ the scouts? Trust your board, and if the GM doesn’t like the board he needs to find scouts he prefers. If the President or owner is in the room with the scouts, then the GM has to ask them to leave. Seriously. Get out. Screw off. Go pay the bill.

By the way: I bet the top questions at the scouting meetings today will be this: What is the gap, if any, between Dubois and Tkachuk? Are either of them centers? Can Juolevi be Ivan Provorov? Is the player Montreal is getting just as good as the Oilers pick at No. 4? I don’t know the answers to those questions, but a professional organization needs to have people with the courage of their convictions who are ready to make a call on a player—even if the GM is sending a death stare down the table. This isn’t senior citizens trivia, this is damned important stuff. Trust your board.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show today. I will be on the roundtable at 9, so you are getting the post a few minutes early. Scheduled to appear at 10, TSN1260:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. The draft lottery and four terrific playoff series.
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. Who won the NFL draft? Was it Cleveland?
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue, The SuperFan. We will talk of summer and the things Peter Chiarelli should do.
  • Brock Otten, OHL Prospects. Now that we know the OHL kids are going to be in the mix, we will discuss Chychrun, Tkachuk, Sergachev, Juolevi, Brown, McLeod and others.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

128 Responses to "FINDING THE SWEET SPOT"

  1. dustrock says:

    Funny thing, LT – that’s by far the most glowing report I’ve read on Tkachuk’s two-way game, much of the reports I’ve read, especially comparing him and Dubois, suggest that Dubois is actually ahead of Tkachuk in the overall game.

    I like that Tkachuk is more of a grinder and we don’t have to worry about him staying as a perimeter player, but there’s a lot less space and time in the NHL and I wonder if his skating issues are a problem.

    He has fewer shots than Chychrun, on the best offensive team in the CHL.

    It’s the same criticism of Juolevi – he’s obviously got a pretty polished all-around game and looked fantastic at the WJHC, but his scoring isn’t what you would expect for a #4, especially playing on that London Knights team.

    Is Juolevi going to be Martin Marincin at the NHL level?

  2. npanciroli says:

    I’d be nervous if we took a defenceman at #4 when it sounds like you can take one around #10th and get the same or a similar defenceman.

    Getting PK would be so insane. It’s hard to fathom. McDavid should be used to pump and dump cheap wingers since he can produce with almost anyone.

  3. kinger_OIL says:

    npanciroli,

    – Agree re: McD pump and dump wingers: Maroon wasn’t a great find as the narrative goes, needing a change of scenery: rather it’s mostly: “ok you get to play with wth Conner.”!

    – His GF/60 with Conner is 4.92: WOWY indeed!

  4. Rondo says:

    To pick a D-man at #4 he needs to be a special player. How much separation is there among the top 3 Dmen and among the top 6 D-men.

    Luckily we might see Juolevi in the Memorial Cup and get a better look.

  5. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    (4) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL): Rugged, quality power forward.
    (5) L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): Big forward, playmaker.
    (6) LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): Mobile defender with offensive acumen.
    (8) C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): He could be a special player.
    (7) LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): Substantial offensive defenseman.
    (9) LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): Fantastic skater, complete defender.
    (10) RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL): Fast, fluid, wicked smart.

    That list (from a previous thread) leaves off Brown, McLeod, and Nylander to boot.

    Any one of those 7 (or 10) guys could be the best of that bunch. We can argue in favor of our preference all day, we have no idea who will emerge from this group.

    This pick is the most interesting one we’ve had to make since we chose MPS in my opinion.

    It’s either a blind crapshoot, in which case trading down from 4 to 10 has little to no impact on the outcome (so for the love of all that is holy make the trade) or you trust your board, and the pro’s can see a real difference that folks who only look at numbers and scouting reports simply can’t.

    Makes for a fun couple months of discussion, anyway.

  6. Ducey says:

    Draft PLD, PDQ.

    I think I take him over Tkachuk.

    I have not seen either guy play, but PLD has more goals 42 v 30, PIMs 112 v 80, is much bigger (6′ 3″ 202 vs 6’1″ 195, and younger (PLD turns 18 on June 24 (he will be drafted on his birthday) MT turned 18 in Dec (6.5 months difference). PLD also took 843 faceoffs this year. Maybe he can play some C?

    It also scares me that Tkachuk was 3rd on his team in scoring behind Marner and Dvorak. And he plays for London, who traditionally gives their stars mega-icetime.

  7. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ducey,

    Agree here, I’m not high on Tkachuk.

    I think Keller might be the third best forward in the draft. He’s a little guy though, and I think Chia would be crucified if he took a small skilled forward with the 4th pick.

  8. Caramel Batman says:

    Ducey:
    Draft PLD, PDQ.

    I think I take him over Tkachuk.

    I have not seen either guy play, but PLD has more goals 42 v 30, PIMs 112 v 80,is much bigger (6′ 3″ 202 vs 6’1″ 195, and younger (PLD turns 18 on June 24 (he will be drafted on his birthday) MT turned 18 in Dec (6.5 months difference). PLD also took 843 faceoffs this year.Maybe he can play some C?

    It also scares me that Tkachuk was 3rd on his team in scoring behind Marner and Dvorak. And he plays for London, who traditionally gives their stars mega-icetime.

    All this is true. And yet I bet the scouts don’t know, or care, that Tkachuk is significantly older than Dubois. Yet another reason to not listen to your scouts, especially in the first round. It is crazy to listen to someone who has “seen” them play when you have so much more and better information to go on.

    Scouts are for when you don’t have good information to go on, guys in the mid to late rounds. There you have to trust your scouts. Anyone who takes Tkachuk before Dubois is a fool is either selling or buying snake oil.

    There is no way to sell the idea that Tkackuk is better than Dubois. None.

  9. Rondo says:

    On paper Sergachev looks like the best D, among the consensus why do you think he is consistently ranked lower than Chychrun and Juolevi.?

  10. Richard S.S. says:

    In any future acquisitions, expect McDavid to be the benchmark for size. I do not expect the Oilers to acquire anyone smaller than him for any reason.

  11. Rondo says:

    PLD vs. Tkachuk

    PLD Better skater
    PLD- Played one less season than Tkachuk
    PLD- 200 days younger
    PLD- Goal scorer
    PLD- Plays 3 forward positions

  12. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: All this is true.And yet I bet the scouts don’t know, or care, that Tkachuk is significantly older than Dubois.Yet another reason to not listen to your scouts, especially in the first round.It is crazy to listen to someone who has “seen” them play when you have so much more and better information to go on.

    Scouts are for when you don’t have good information to go on, guys in the mid to late rounds.There you have to trust your scouts.Anyone who takes Tkachuk before Dubois is a fool is either selling or buying snake oil.

    There is no way to sell the idea that Tkackuk is better than Dubois.None.

    I am so glad you are certain on it. You must be a riot at parties.

    Tkachuk does have more pp/g than Dubois, so that would be a justifiable and obvious way “to sell the idea”.

    I would be listening to scouts. They are the guys that tell you that a Yakapov isn’t what he seems based on the stats. Not listening to them worked out well there, eh?

    Scouts will tell you whether these guys can skate, accelerate, are hard on the puck, etc. And they should have back ground on players as to whether they are hard workers or flakes. They would have an idea on TOI and linemates, usage and whether players put in a consistent effort. You need to know this stuff to know whether guys can make the jump.

    You don’t ignore the stats in favour of the scouts “character guy” analysis but you are not as smart as you think you are if you ignore the key contributions of good scouts.

  13. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Rondo:
    PLD vs. Tkachuk

    PLD Better skater
    PLD- Played one less season thanTkachuk
    PLD- 200 days younger
    PLD- Goal scorer
    PLD- Plays 3 forward positions

    All good points.

    I still object to the certainty we tend to apply to these arguments though. We are still limited in our ability to analyze these kids.

    I agree he seems better. I’m just not willing to state it definitively.

    It’s fun to argue about it though.

  14. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Rondo,

    His enigmaticness/60 is higher than every other Dman at the top of the list.

  15. hags9k says:

    Can somebody clarify for a numbskull like me what the proposed expansion criteria were for protecting players and how this might affect us keeping the pick as opposed to dealing it? Are RFA players automatically protected or something of the like?

    Apologies if this horse has already been flogged in previous threads…

  16. knighttown says:

    A lot of denial around here about sliding to #4 being a blessing in disguise. Jack Eichel or two 6’4″ right shots is a much bigger prize than being at the beggining of a group of mush, both as a player for the Oilers or as an asset to the Oilers.

    Any of (at least) 8 players could end up being the best of the rest (the 3D, the 3 big F’s (Brown, Tkachuck, Dubois) or Nylander/Keller.

    Assume most teams have them bunched together you’d need to drop outside the top 10 before a GM is a going to pay “gap value”. At least at #3 the “gap value” is there for all the teams in the Top 10. Does a team at #11 pay big to jump up for Juolevi a #4 when Sergachev (or even Juolevi himself) may be still around.

    They’ll pay something for sure if they really like a guy but there’s a known currency for this type of transacation and Chiarelli likely couldn’t extract more than that. There won’t be a Garth Snow “our entire draft for Ryan Murray” type offer. Don’t expect the price to be rich…perhaps #11 and #35 for #4 or something similar.

    One or two of these 8 will be outstanding and the Oilers sit in the cat-bird seat. They need to finally be the team who identifies the right pick. This reminds me a bit of the Pouliot year. Some teams will get Parise, Getzlaf and Perry and others will get Pouliot, Mark Stuart or Steve Bernier.

    So essentially we’re not able to fluke it this year. There’s no “walk to the podium and pick Taylor Hall”. There’s no “wait for Paajaarvi to fall or whomever is left of Monahan/Nurse”.

    There are choices this uyear, and some will be good and some will be bad. The Oilers have played it very safe at the draft table (in the first round) but this year may take courage. The stupidest franchise is professional sports is going to have to use all of their balls and all of their brains.

    If they think Juolevi is the best option than they take him rankings be damned.

    But for once, please be right.

  17. hags9k says:

    One more question.

    PLD vs MT. If their last names were reversed, would there be any doubt about who to select?

    I feel MT is likely being buoyed somewhat by the hall of fame name.

    I don’t have to remind anyone about the last time we went down that road, ended in heartbreak and now a Flyers sweater.

  18. Caramel Batman says:

    Ducey,

    I think you are wrong that scouts know any of those things, certainly in any comparable way.

    And how would you even begin to evaluate comparatively even objective things like acceleration or speed. Darren Helm is one of the fastest guys in the NHL. Knowing that doesn’t help me evaluate him.

    TOI matters, but scouts aren’t giving you that information other than anecdotally. Indeed, all their reports are anecdotal, by definition. There is a reason the “scouts” don’t agree with each other. They are basing their recommendations on so very little.

    Some times that is the only thing you have to go on, so you take that and do the best you can. But it is so far from the gold standard of decision making it’s ridiculous that it is being held up as some kind of good things.

  19. Hockey Buddha says:

    It might become necessary to trade Nurse this summer, but I think that I’d regret it until the end of my days.

  20. Caramel Batman says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: All good points.

    I still object to the certainty we tend to apply to these arguments though.We are still limited in our ability to analyze these kids.

    I agree he seems better.I’m just not willing to state it definitively.

    It’s fun to argue about it though.

    You mischaracterize the position. It isn’t that Dubois is definitely better than Tkachuk, or definitely will have a better career. That is unknowable, a known unknown, and a foolish thing to say or think.

    Rather it is that Dubois definitely seems to be better, which is quite a different statement. I am certain that Dubois appears to be better. We don’t know the future, but based on what we do know, Dubois is the better pick. We know this.

  21. Snowman says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Ducey,

    I think you are wrong that scouts know any of those things, certainly in any comparable way.

    And how would you even begin to evaluate comparatively even objective things like acceleration or speed.Darren Helm is one of the fastest guys in the NHL.Knowing that doesn’t help me evaluate him.

    TOI matters, but scouts aren’t giving you that information other than anecdotally.Indeed, all their reports are anecdotal, by definition.There is a reason the “scouts” don’t agree with each other.They are basing their recommendations on so very little.

    Some times that is the only thing you have to go on, so you take that and do the best you can.But it is so far from the gold standard of decision making it’s ridiculous that it is being held up as some kind of good things.

    This comment doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. The part about knowing Darren Helm is fast not helping evaluate him is nonsense. Every piece of information is helpful in evaluation.

    Additionally I would bet that the organization gives a list of criteria they want to know about. I would imagine it would go something like I need you to look at X player. Does he have these skills? How much did he play? Who were his linemate? How were they used? Is he physical? I imagine they look at shot totals. I imagine they look at everything that we talk about here.

    There is zero chance that these $500M businesses hire a bunch of jabroni’s who don’t keep current with industry benchmarks. I like to think of this as a smart community but I imagine the people who are paid professionally are smarter.

    I think scouts disagree on things because they give more weight personally to some items on the list than other items. I don’t think they disagree because they use very little in evaluating players.

    I’m not sure TOI would be anecdotal. Stop watches are pretty common.

    I’m sure there are anecdotal aspects of their reports but I’m sure there is also a great deal of quantitative work involved as well. I think you are selling the industry short big time.

  22. Richard S.S. says:

    One thing to remember, Lowetide has better sources for his ideas I listen to his podcasts, also Oilers Now and Inside Sports Podcasts. So Lowetides accuracy is extremely high.

  23. Fog of Warts says:

    Here’s the problem.

    Only lovers remember who finished second. No-one remembers the scout who doesn’t go off the board.

    ———

    Some far-flung gin joint in the urlyverse (though surely not this one):

    Fan A: I’ve really started to like that scouting department run by Scot Steady.

    Fan B: What do you like them for? They’re just Connecticut droids who always make the MacKenzie pick, or close to it. Show me some flare!

    Fan A: Show me a man on a crowded highway some dark December evening sporting an antique pair of stiff, frost-bitten gloves who is cranking away at some flimsy tire jack while happily humming a love song to road flares (improvising from Fat-Bottomed Jeans).

    Fan B: That’s not the kind of flare I was talking about.

    Fan A: Trust me, I’m from *cough* [inaudible], one leads to the other.

    Fan B: You’re such a pessimist.

    Fan A: I don’t even know if I should mention this, but have you ever seen a flat tire roll down hill?

    Fan B: What about it?

    Fan A: And come to rest—circa 1,600 °C?

    Fan B: Why would it do that?

    Fan A: And then have a semi-trailer slam on his brakes, surprised by the road side obstacle—

    Fan B: —truckers (spits), what can you do?—

    Fan A: —only to be hit by another semi-trailer—

    Fan B: —truckers nail you every time—

    Fan A: —and then they both jack-knife, tip over, and slide to a stop—sparks flying everywhere—a giant fused pile of spinning wheels, managed metal, and leaking fuel tanks, now on top of the runaway flat, already extending its first molten finger toward the sizzling hot “safety” flare?

    Fan B: Where exactly did you just say you were from, I didn’t catch it?

    Fan A: *cough* [inaudible]

    Fan B: You know, they’ve got a patch for that these days. No need to ruin your lungs with death sticks just because you’re addicted …

    Fan A: Yes, they do. It’s called “less flare”.

  24. dustrock says:

    If the scouts don’t know the birth dates of the draft eligible players they need to be fired immediately.

  25. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Keith Tkachuk isn’t in the Hall of Fame. Neither is Dave Gagner for that matter.

    hags9k:
    One more question.

    PLD vs MT.If their last names were reversed, would there be any doubt about who to select?

    I feel MT is likely being buoyed somewhat by the hall of fame name.

    I don’t have to remind anyone about the last time we went down that road, ended in heartbreak and now a Flyers sweater.

  26. Truth says:

    No matter what happens the Oilers should not draft for immediate need. At 4 and beyond they are out of the immediate help area. They all need one more year in Junior, plus another 1/2 at minimum in the AHL. The Oilers cannot afford to sit idle and wait for this pick to make an impact. The expectation should be that the player picked will have to crack a playoff team’s lineup in 2 years.

    I don’t mind them taking a D because god knows they need better D and a lot of them. But after the draft we better not hear Chiarelli proclaim that the player will slot nicely in the top 6 next season.

    Also, just a mean-nothing observation, but doesn’t Dubois’ scouting report make him sound like a comparable to Benoit Pouliot? Big, good skater, skilled hands, takes undisciplined penalties…Dubois likely to go at 4th overall, as Pouliot did. Dubois did get more points in his draft year, but the difference in the QMJHL vs OHL is worth mentioning. I have never watched Dubois play so I don’t know what sort of undisciplined penalties are mentioned in most of the scouting reports. If they are a byproduct of playing too physical he would be a favourite in Edmonton. If they aren’t, he would be compared to Pouliot, IMO.

    How much did Marner zoom Tkachuk? Toronto Sports Network likes to show Marners highlights on a daily basis. He’s a nice player so I can’t complain about that, however Tkachuk is sometimes seen in the highlights. At least 2 of them were excellent Marner plays to Tkachuk on the back door.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    PLD vs. Tkachuk

    PLD Better skater
    PLD- Played one less season thanTkachuk
    PLD- 200 days younger
    PLD- Goal scorer
    PLD- Plays 3 forward positions

    I agree with all of this.

    The age thing is HUGE.

    Add to it that according to http://www.qmjhl.prospect-stats.com/ and http://www.ohl.prospect-stats.com/ PLD has more prime points per game (goal or 1st assist) while *probably* playing less TOI/gm.

    I’m not positive as to the veracity of the numbers on that site, but they *seem* like they are based on reality.

    Let’s not forget that PLD is playing with Svechnikov (who I wanted at 15 last year) and Lazarev (undrafted but skilled smaller 19 year old) so he’s getting a line mate push as well.

    If the Oilers make the pick at 4 I like PLD a lot.

    He *might* end up being a better NHLer than Pulijarvi.

  28. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    We always think the better player goes earlier in the draft especially at the top. When you look back at drafts it rarely goes like that.

  29. Caramel Batman says:

    Snowman,

    Player A is fast.
    Player B has a great shot.

    Who is the better player?

    Answer: No idea.

    An that is with things that are easy to see.

    How about this.

    Player A has good offensive instincts and thinks the game in the offensive zone.
    Player B is hard on the puck and good positionally.

    Who is the better player?

    Answer: No idea.

    There is no way you can keep adding that kind of information and come to a good decision on the basis of that information because the information does not contain within it the appropriate criteria. So what actually happens is that a recommendation is based on something (a feeling, a sense, the player is just clearly better) and that justified based on some other set of categories.

    If you read the scouting reports of any player there is no way to glean from them who is the better player. This is true of NHL players and it is true of amateur players. And that is assuming the scouting report is good, an assumption it would be foolish to make.

  30. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dustrock:
    If the scouts don’t know the birth dates of the draft eligible players they need to be fired immediately.

    Yeah, no kidding. Apparently some around here have a very low opinion of how scouts do their work.

  31. Caramel Batman says:

    dustrock:
    If the scouts don’t know the birth dates of the draft eligible players they need to be fired immediately.

    I’m sure they know the birth date but do they care? Indeed, what is a scout supposed to do with that information? They are supposed to describe what they see not mentally adjust what they see based upon the age of the player.

  32. vinotintazo says:

    Anyone object this?

    4OVA + prospect to NYI for Hamonic and 20ish OVA or what ever it will be.

    draft Dante Fabbro.

    winning….

  33. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Ducey,

    I think you are wrong that scouts know any of those things, certainly in any comparable way.

    And how would you even begin to evaluate comparatively even objective things like acceleration or speed.Darren Helm is one of the fastest guys in the NHL.Knowing that doesn’t help me evaluate him.

    TOI matters, but scouts aren’t giving you that information other than anecdotally.Indeed, all their reports are anecdotal, by definition.There is a reason the “scouts” don’t agree with each other.They are basing their recommendations on so very little.

    Some times that is the only thing you have to go on, so you take that and do the best you can.But it is so far from the gold standard of decision making it’s ridiculous that it is being held up as some kind of good things.

    You seem to have some kind of fixation on objective numbers. If you can’t measure it, then you just exclude it.

    Apparently, we can’t consider that McDavid is fast, has terrific acceleration, can beat players 1 v 1 and makes the players around him better.

    Those abilities make him special and add colour to his stats. They allow you to say that he likely will be able to make the jump from junior to the NHL without much difficulty.

    Darren Helm is a perfect example. He had 24 points in 72 games in the WHL in the year he was drafted.

    You would not have looked at him twice.

    I bet some idiot scout looked at his competitiveness and speed and though he was a worth a 5th round pick.

  34. Snowman says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Player A is fast, good offensively. good instincts. He also plays 2 minutes less at EV less than player B but still scored more goals. He’s younger and bigger.

    Player B has a great shot and is hard on the puck. He’s slow as molasses in February and he’s 19. He’s smallish and mostly scores on the powerplay.

    Tell me who is the better player?

    Adding information lets you make better decisions. You make sure your scouts get you the information you value most in your decision making and then you make your decision.

  35. Truth says:

    Woodguy: I agree with all of this.

    The age thing is HUGE.

    How about Auston Mathews Sept. 17 birthday? 2 days older (or a special allowance by the NHL) and he would have went to Arizona at #3 overall last draft. You have to think AZ would have tried the special allowance thing around this time last season. They better have.

    On that note, man am I glad the Oilers won the lottery last year and not this (if they were only to win it 1 of the 2 years)

  36. Lois Lowe says:

    Ooooh LT.

    You’re never going to let the Marincin trade go. He had a good last 20 games for the Leafs. He is still a tweener and likely headed to Vegas after next season.

  37. Caramel Batman says:

    Snowman:
    Caramel Batman,

    Player A is fast, good offensively. good instincts. He also plays 2 minutes less at EV less than player B but still scored more goals. He’s younger and bigger.

    Player B has a great shot and is hard on the puck. He’s slow as molasses in February and he’s 19. He’s smallish and mostly scores on the powerplay.

    Tell me who is the better player?

    Adding information lets you make better decisions. You make sure your scouts get you the information you value most in your decision making and then you make your decision.

    The scouting information is unnecessary in your comparison.

    Now let’s say Player B is in the same draft year, is big and tough, and instead of “slow as molasses” there is debate about his skating.

    Player A is still clearly the better player but now the scouting information has made that harder to see.

  38. Kepler62 says:

    Logan Brown looks like he’ll be a dominant player down the line – 6’6 and 230 lbs. The guy may never lead the league in scoring but 50-60 points plus what a guy that size brings is a deadly combination.

    Please please please don’t let him go to Calgary or Vancouver – I don’t want to watch him manhandle our forwards for the next 15 years.

    Not saying we should take him at No. 4 though.

  39. Snowman says:

    Caramel Batman,

    What exactly do you think scouts are telling the organization?

    The org. will have things they weigh more heavily. Like skating. So if there is some issue regarding skating that goes into the decision. It’s given more weight. That is how it should be.

    You decide what is important. You get all the information and the weighting you give to the important items like EV strength production and skating ability give one player the edge over the other.

    Scouts are told what to look for and what information is required and then all the information is given the appropriate emphasis in decision making.

  40. Water Fire says:

    The right course of action depends on so many things. I like that it seems from his comments around the webs that Chiarelli does have a framework by which he will operate. This is the most significant thing because it allows him to barter and to act on what they see as a worthwhile deal while it’s there. No more paralysis of analysis.

    Outside of Matthews I think the 3 defense are going to be bigger impact players in the future, maybe sooner. Goalies, centres and defense control games. Wingers have to be spectacular to do that, and spectacular doesn’t happen every draft.

    I also don’t buy you shouldn’t take defense high. If man crushes are avoided and players are looked at objectively, I think you can see who is good.

    For example Kris Letang’s draft card read exactly how he plays now. So did Joe Sakic’s. Maybe LT knows different than this with his wealth of knowledge, but when you look at 5 tool defensemen, dominant in their peer group with size and speed, I don’t see how you fail, except in expecting Karlsson offense.

    You don’t need Karlsson offense when you get everything else. The only drawback I see if they are all left. But if you improve on Klefbom or Nurse you move them – they have that same top value as everybody else’s players like them.

  41. Caramel Batman says:

    Snowman,

    The only thing that matters is betterness. Everything is just a proxy for that. There is no formula to combine size, speed, whatever else, and have it add up to betterness. Your way is a recipe for arbitrariness.

  42. David says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Rondo,

    Woodguy,

    I think Tkachuk is unfairly getting nicked by most people here. If the Oilers select Dubois he will be a winger for us. It is nice that he has some history at center (so did Taylor Hall if I am remembering correctly) but that is a small plus.

    I am not sold on age. Top end players are top end players and they come from all over the calendar. Ovechkin missed the cut off by two days, Tavares by 5, Hall was born in Nov, McDavid in Jan. Draisaitl is significantly older than Bennett, more than Tkachuk to Dubois. Miles to go on those players but likely both teams will be happy.

    I don’t think we should across the board cut down players for playing with greats. Domi sure looks like he was just carried by Marner… Or not. DeBrincat lost McDavid, no problem this year. I guess Jarri Kurri was a bum, any old player could do what he did with Wayne right?

    Tkachuk has delivered extremely impressive numbers his entire life to date, is wrecking the OHL Playoffs, where he is scoring at a goal per game clip. Tied Matthews in points at the World Juniors and impressed me more than Matthews there. And to me Tkachuk plays a higher skill game while still being grinding.

    Likely both players will have good careers, I would definately favour Tkachuk over Dubois. But I favour Nylander over both of them so feel free to write me off.

    Also I have always hated the thinking that high PIMS is a good thing

  43. dustrock says:

    Just hope it’s not like Moneyball. “Pass.” “Why?” “His girlfriend’s a 7. He doesn’t have confidence.”

  44. Woogie63 says:

    I have been impressed with how the teams still in the play-offs have lots of experience in their top 4 defensemen. Today in our Top 4 we have 2 rookies (milage may vary). Taking the best dman vs.settling for the 4th best forward will help us more in the long run.

    Top 4 Defensemen

    Oilers
    Klefbolm, Sekera, Davidson, Nurse

    Dallas
    Klingberg, Gologoski, Demers, Oduya

    Nashville
    Weber, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis

    Islanders
    Boychuk, Hamonic, Leddy, De Haan

    Penguins
    Letang, Maata, Daley, Lovejoy

    Sharks
    Burns, Martin, Vlasic, Polak

    Blues
    Pietrbngelo, Shattenkirk, Bouwmeester, Parayko

    Capitals
    Carlson, Orpik, Niskanen, Alzner

  45. Snowman says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Okie dokie.

  46. godot10 says:

    Truth:

    Also, just a mean-nothing observation, but doesn’t Dubois’ scouting report make him sound like a comparable to Benoit Pouliot?Big, good skater, skilled hands, takes undisciplined penalties…Dubois likely to go at 4th overall, as Pouliot did. Dubois did get more points in his draft year, but the difference in the QMJHL vs OHL is worth mentioning.I have never watched Dubois play so I don’t know what sort of undisciplined penalties are mentioned in most of the scouting reports.If they are a byproduct of playing too physical he would be a favourite in Edmonton.If they aren’t, he would be compared to Pouliot, IMO.

    Pouliot was one of the oldest players in his draft year. Dubois will be one of the younger players in his draft year. So Pouliot was nine months older than Dubois.

  47. vinotintazo says:

    is PLD playing Center in junior ATM?

  48. David says:

    To add to my last post, Tkachuk is 7 1/4 months older than Dubois. Matthews is 7 months older than Laine, and 7 3/4 months older than Puljujarvi.

  49. Revolved says:

    I am very curious how the other two top d have managed to pass chychrun on so many lists. LT has said offense is the concern, but by IPP and EVP he is quite close to the other two while also having a wider range of skills and high end athleticism.

    Specifically, can someone tell me how his incredible offense as a 16 year old has been forgotten about, particularly in the context of his shoulder surgery and quality of team? 

    I like Dubois plenty, but would say Chychrun will help the team more in the coming decade. Despite the glut of lefties, our D depth in three to five years could use a top end talent.

  50. Woodguy says:

    Woogie63:
    I have been impressed with how the teams still in the play-offs have lots of experience in their top 4 defensemen.Today in our Top 4 we have 2 rookies (milage may vary).Taking the best dman vs.settling for the 4th best forward will help us more in the long run.

    Top 4 Defensemen

    Oilers
    Klefbolm, Sekera, Davidson, Nurse

    Dallas
    Klingberg, Gologoski, Demers, Oduya

    Nashville
    Weber, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis

    Islanders
    Boychuk, Hamonic, Leddy, De Haan

    Penguins
    Letang, Maata, Daley, Lovejoy

    Sharks
    Burns, Martin, Vlasic, Polak

    Blues
    Pietrbngelo, Shattenkirk, Bouwmeester, Parayko

    Capitals
    Carlson, Orpik, Niskanen, Alzner

    I wrote about this exact thing: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html?m=1

  51. Rondo says:

    David,

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl-draft/insider/post?id=832

    “Since I started doing work in the hockey prospect arena, the issue of late-birthdate prospects confounded me. After years of dealing with prospects, and doing recent research on the matter, I am convinced it is one of the most important quantitative factors that can go into prospect evaluations.”

  52. godot10 says:

    If the #4OV is NOT used to acquire an established top 4D, then the value at #4 (I think) is to pick a forward. And if one wants to pick a D, one should trade down but stay in the top 10.

    Dubois is likely to stay in junior next year and play centre.

    Tkachuk’s birthday means that he can be sent to the AHL after only one more year in junior.

    The scouts will have to take a really good look at Logan Brown’s splits, his first half of the season vs. the second half of the season.

    I think those are the three options at #4. If one wants a D, somebody behind you is going to want one of the forwards, so be willing to trade down a few spots. (to pick up an extra 2nd round pick to pay for the Chiarelli compensation).

    My initial preference is Dubois > Brown > Tkachuk…centres over wingers.

    My initial preference for a D if there is a trade down, Chychrun > Juolevi > Sergachev (I don’t see enlightened player management in McLellan to be able to deal with Russians…only take a Russian if your coach has the skill set to coach them, and that includes the AHL)

  53. Ducey says:

    godot10: Pouliot was one of the oldest players in his draft year.Dubois will be one of the younger players in his draft year.So Pouliot was nine months older than Dubois.

    Pouliot never put up the same offensive numbers as PLD.

    He put up 67 pts in 67 games in his draft year, then 65 in 51 in draft +1.

    PLD had 99 pts in 62 games this year.

    The #2 pick in Pouliot’s yr was Bobby Ryan. He had 89 pts in 62 games in his draft year. This might be a better comparable for PLD than Pouliot.

  54. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy,

    Crazy, I missed this. I do enjoy your blog and your thought process.

  55. maxwell_mischief says:

    I am very okay with the OIl selecting any of Dubois, Tkachuk, Juolevi or Sergachev- not so much Chychrun but I still think he is a valuable prospect
    BUT
    I think there could be some big time mileage to be gained trading down into the next cluster (basically 10-21), and some very interesting prospects.
    I’ve mentioned a potential deal that shapes Reinhart, 4th to Colorado for Barrie, 10th – I think a big blockbuster like Nuge, Reinhart, 4th, Florida 3rd for Duchene, Barrie, 10th. If Duchene and McD click at championships, could be something to pursue, and of course an interesting topic with Roy’s comments about Duchene and him moving to the wing, leaving Colorado in need of a C.
    At pick 10 there would be two names I am looking at if I am the OIlers
    McAvoy and Gauthier
    both guys I think have the make up to be productive, effective pros. I know Gauthier didn’t have the best WJC but he made team Canada as a 17-year-old and was used in a support role. From what I gather, he is hard to handle along the boards and has elite skill level. Physical, big, goal scorer- 38 as a 16/17 year old!
    Craig Button’s #5 Logan Brown might be there too
    There’s also a strong possibility that someone 4-9 takes Brown or Nylander or who knows maybe Bean pushing one of the aforementioned 2nd cluster to 10
    Kiefer Bellows, Clayton Keller, Michael Mcloed and Dante Fabbro are also all rather interesting players but I like the style of play McAvoy or Gauthier could bring, plus RIGHT SHOOTERS

  56. stevezie says:

    godot10: If the #4OV is NOT used to acquire an established top 4D, then the value at #4 (I think) is to pick a forward. And if one wants to pick a D, one should trade down but stay in the top 10

    This is obviously true. The defensemen are close enough that you’re a sucker if you don’t let someone else pay you for the honour of guessing first. Essentially the same odds lower down.

    There is an argument to stay and draft a forward, but trading down seems to address both the present and future and the oilers need talent in volume.

    Of course, we can’t force other teams to make an offer.

  57. Jordan says:

    Oilers trade RNH, No. 4, Darnell Nurse, Nail Yakupov ($9,363,333 in cap next year)
    Habs trade Subban, No. 9, Lars Eller ($12,500,000 in cap next year)

    This is bad bad bad bad bad.

    It saddles the Oilers with an expensive contract for a RH D who may be worth it, and a Center who is definitely not worth it., for a top 2 center, a blue-chip D prospect and a value scoring winger contract.

    Player wise, the Oilers win because they get the best player in the trade.

    Value wise, the Habs win, because they get better contracts.

    Eller is the problem in the trade. If he’s not there, it’s manageable. Either that, or rather than Yak, they get Fayne – that could work too.

    But they way it is, the Oilers take on too much salary.

    Drai and CMD need deals next year.

    I’d work my butt off to deal with the crazy in either Vancouver for Tanev or Colorado for Barrie before trading RNH, Nurse and Yak to Montreal for PK.

    JMO.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    It amazes me to hear Oiler fans still arguing for BPA above all else.

    The reality is if the Oil had drafted for positional need over BPA, the team would likely have the following players on the roster:

    Tyler Seguin (they needed a RHC more than a LW at time of draft)
    Adam Larsson (RHD was then and still is the dominant need for the club over a slight left shooting C). Nuge was the ‘need’ then cos they failed to fill it with a C pick in the 2010 draft. Funny how these mistakes compound.
    Galchenyuk or Grigorenko (In passing on Nuge the previous year, C would likely have been the area of greatest positional need in the 2012 draft). To be fair, the issue for the Oil wasn’t as much BPA strategy as it was owner interference.

    Instead we got Hall (elite LW likely trending behind Seguin in value now), Dave Keon lite, a bust, and a continual gaping hole at RHD.

    Yep, BPA is bulletproof alright.

  59. stevezie says:

    Caramel Batman: The only thing that matters is betterness. Everything is just a proxy for that.

    Especially in prospects. There may come a time when it makes sense to trade Coffee for Shanahan (for the “mix”), but only a sucker tries to fine tune through a crystal ball.

    Most of these guys won’t make it. Take the one with the best odds to be good. Flavour of good is a problem for later .

  60. vinotintazo says:

    Bag of Pucks: Instead we got Hall (elite LW likely trending behind Seguin in value now), Dave Keon lite, a bust, and a continual gaping hole at RHD.

    aaaaand CMD 🙂

  61. Truth says:

    Ducey: Pouliot never put up the same offensive numbers as PLD.

    He put up 67 pts in 67 games in his draft year, then 65 in 51 in draft +1.

    PLD had 99 pts in 62 games this year.

    The #2 pick in Pouliot’s yr was Bobby Ryan. He had 89 pts in 62 games in his draft year. This might be a better comparable for PLD than Pouliot.

    I would agree Dubois looks like a better offensive prospect than Pouliot did.

    Stylistically, their scouting reports read about the same.

    Interestingly:

    Sudbury Wolves 04/05

    1. Rafal Martynowski – 68 GP 67 P 65 PIM
    2. Benoit Pouliot – 67 GP 67 P 102 PIM
    4. Zack Stortini – 58 GP 40 P 186 PIM
    5. Nick Foligno (16 yr old)- 65 GP 38 P 111 PIM
    6. Ryan McDonough (NOT McDonagh of the Rangers, 16 yr old)- 58 GP 37 P 31 PIM
    8. Marc Staal (draft year) – 65 GP 26 P 53 PIM

    Plus 4 others with over 100 PIM! Very young team but it looks like they could handle themselves.

    Off that team Pouliout went 4th overall and Staal 12th overall that same year. Poor McDonough (not McDonagh) never did get drafted after getting 88 pts in 68 GP in his next season. Totally irrelevant information that I found it interesting.

  62. Walter Sobchak says:

    Two teams that don’t get a lot of talk here are CBJ & NYR, both are in serious cap hell and have assets still left to sign.

    Targets for the Oilers should be Jenner RW&C and Kreider plays all 3 position but mainly LW&C.

    Now, I’ve never been good and speculating trades but I seriously wonder what that fourth might pry out of CBJ and NYR….

    I would have to think that pick would be ultra valuable to those teams.

  63. David says:

    Rondo:
    David,

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl-draft/insider/post?id=832

    “Since I started doing work in the hockey prospect arena, the issue of late-birthdate prospects confounded me. After years of dealing with prospects, and doing recent research on the matter, I am convinced it is one of the most important quantitative factors that can go into prospect evaluations.”

    It’s a factor, but not a massive one. There are exceptions to everything and in this area there are many exceptions.

  64. Truth says:

    Hall, Yakupov, and Klefbom to MTL for Subban and Gallagher. Would the Oilers do that? Would MTL?

    I realize it creates a problem at LD and at LW. Draisaitl is perfectly capable to play there if need be, and the Oilers prospect D are all left shooting. Plus, LD are easier to replace on the open market. Not to mention I remain a skeptic of Klefbom’s ability due to his requirement of playing with a custom skate.

  65. LOObird says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I think you’re missing the point for why it is insisted that you draft the BPA.

    Nobody, not even the best scouts, know whether or not these players will become good NHL players or even NHL players at all.

    It is easy for you to look back in hindsight and say the player that that draft pick became would be more useful to the Oilers today. But on draft day you don’t know the future, so you pick the player most likely to have a good NHL career.

  66. ashley says:

    Subban is good. But he comes with a 9 million contract. All that is not worth RNH AND Yak AND Nurse AND trading down. If Chia proposed that, Bergevin’s signature would be illegible due to the mixture of excitement and fear (that Chia would come to his senses). Crazy stuff.

    Usually fans overrate their own players.

  67. digger50 says:

    I think that Dubois younger age is possible to ignore.

    Where would Mathews have gone if he was a 2015 draft? Waiting that extra year put him #1 this year. Similarly where would Dubois go if he gets an extra year in and draft eligible in 1017?

  68. eidy says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting read. Given the age and style of play Dubois seems like he should be the pick at 4. Interesting looking at the even strength scoring in that chart as well. Dubois was 53 ES prime of 65 EV points. Tkachuk was 37/63. The difference in scoring totals is that Tkachuk got 42 PP pts (28 being PP prime) while Dubois had only 27 PP pts (23 PP prime). Dubois also had 3 SH goals and 4 short handed first assists. Pretty impressive for a 17 yo.

    I think Dubois is the pick and let him simmer. Send him back to junior and let him simmer. The roster can be filled with a Brouwer, Purcell, etc type FA.

    The other player that shows really well hear is Vitalii Abramov.

  69. ashley says:

    knighttown:
    A lot of denial around here about sliding to #4 being a blessing in disguise.Jack Eichel or two 6’4″ right shots is a much bigger prize than being at the beggining of a group of mush, both as a player for the Oilers or as an asset to the Oilers.

    Any of (at least) 8 players could end up being the best of the rest (the 3D, the 3 big F’s (Brown, Tkachuck, Dubois) or Nylander/Keller.

    Assume most teams have them bunched together you’d need to drop outside the top 10 before a GM is a going to pay “gap value”.At least at #3 the “gap value” is there for all the teams in the Top 10.Does a team at #11 pay big to jump up for Juolevi a#4 when Sergachev (or even Juolevi himself) may be still around.

    They’ll pay something for sure if they really like a guy but there’s a known currency for this type of transacation and Chiarelli likely couldn’t extract more than that.There won’t be a Garth Snow “our entire draft for Ryan Murray” type offer.Don’t expect the price to be rich…perhaps #11 and #35 for #4 or something similar.

    One or two of these 8 will be outstanding and the Oilers sit in the cat-bird seat.They need to finally be the team who identifies the right pick.This reminds me a bit of the Pouliot year.Some teams will get Parise, Getzlaf and Perry and others will get Pouliot, Mark Stuart or Steve Bernier.

    So essentially we’re not able to fluke it this year. There’s no “walk to the podium and pick Taylor Hall”.There’s no “wait for Paajaarvi to fall or whomever is left of Monahan/Nurse”.

    There are choices this uyear, and some will be good and some will be bad.The Oilers have played it very safe at the draft table (in the first round) but this year may take courage.The stupidest franchise is professional sports is going to have to use all of their balls and all of their brains.

    If they think Juolevi is the best option than they take him rankings be damned.

    But for once, please be right.

    This is a good post. It’s a nice reminder of what is happening at 4-15 in this draft and most others. An NHL’er is probable (but not guaranteed), however the probability of a top 6 talent is not that high, at least not as high as is intimated in all the comments about these young men prior to the draft. Half or more of those kids at 4-15 will turn into bottom 6 role players, tweeners, or may not make it at all.

    Are we feeling lucky? Or do we try to make a deal for a proven NHL talent, preferably defensive talent. CMD clock is ticking. I’d go with the latter.

  70. digger50 says:

    I think Chychrun is probably the best here and now defencemen and will be the first to tackle NHL duties. Just more physically ready. What I think holds him up is scouts fear he has or soon will reach his peak potential. And that is the hardest part, predicting how good the prospect will become. History shows how often we get this wrong.

  71. spoiler says:

    NHL Numbers has added 20/6/17 page to their team breakdowns. I just love looking at New Jersey’s forwards:

    http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/NJD?year=2017

    Gonna need a few new jerseys there next year.

    Re: the pick

    Trade the pick, the whole pick and nothing but the pick, so help me Gord.

    Well, if one can avoid it.

    A trade down of 1-10 slots isn’t going to bring more than a 2nd rounder, or it’s equivalent in a player, so I don’t see that as solving any D problems. Either we’re trading way back to one of the teams still playing, or we’re not getting a 1st rounder back, if any pick.

    And if Subban is coming, Montreal’s 1st is not. And there’s a reasonably “good” chance our next year’s 1st is also gone.

  72. bucknuck says:

    If Taylor Hall or RNH and the 4th pick is part of the package for Subban, then I wouldn’t add Nurse to the package. I really like Subban the player. He is electric and talented and the Oil should do all they can to get their hands on him, but Taylor Hall is electric and talented too. The fourth overall will be a terrific player.

    The Oilers have to quit trading away defenders just before they turn the corner.

  73. SwedishPoster says:

    Sergachev has some of the most impressive numbers of all draftees. Putting up the points he’s had as a rookie D out of Russia is mighty impressive and to do it in the OHL which is the golden standard for prospects on top of that. To be able to adapt so quickly to a different style of hockey on the smaller NA ice as a D-man is a sign of a great head for hockey. I’ve only seen clips of the player but from reports and what little I’ve seen he seems to have a lot of the tools you want in a high end NHL D. I’m intrigued.

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    LOObird:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I think you’re missing the point for why it is insisted that you draft the BPA.

    Nobody, not even the best scouts, know whether or not these players will become good NHL players or even NHL players at all.

    It is easy for you to look back in hindsight and say the player that that draft pick became would be more useful to the Oilers today. But on draft day you don’t know the future, so you pick the player most likely to have a good NHL career.

    I understand the rationales, but there’s a couple problems with this.

    1) If you’re making a Top 5 pick, they’re all blue chippers, thus all likely to have good careers.
    2) If you’re rebuilding a classic car, you don’t continually buy transmissions for five years running cos you’re finding such great deals on them. Eventually, you have to acquire other parts.

    The core philosophy that underpins BPA is that if you eventually have a surplus at one position, you can deal to address need elsewhere. But this assumes a fungible market which a salary cap NHL is not. Which is why we’ll soon be selling Yakupov for pennies on the dollar.

    Let’s start with the first draft I mentioned Hall vs Seguin. That pick was a tossup. Neither player projected as having significantly more upside than the other, hence the Tayor vs Tyler debate. In fact, what seemingly swung the deal in Hall’s favour was him impressing Tambellini in the pre-draft interview with his ‘confidence’ (cos Tambi = Moron). Despite the crying org need for a RHC, despite the glaringly obvious fact that Cs carry more asset value than Ws, Hall is picked. Love the player. Don’t love the lack of logic behind the pick.

    Realistically, a Seguin picks satisfied both BPA (based on asset value) and organizational need (based on position). And because you’ve addressed your greatest need, you now have the latitude to consider Larsson over Nuge in the subsequent year if you see the BPA upside difference btw them as marginal.

    Is it any wonder the Oilers rebuild struggled, when the previous regime failed to consider even these most basic aspects of the process?

  75. Alpine says:

    Juolevi and Sergachev probably get moved ahead of Chychrun because they were rookies in the OHL, and had comparable seasons to Chychrun, a second year OHLer.

    Really it doesn’t matter, picking one of three is like picking your favourite brand of luxury sports car. They’re all pretty great,

    Regardless, I’m hoping we only select one of them if the glut of LHD is exchanged for RHDs who help our team next year. I’d even take a Pysyk or Severson for second paring duty, if we get someone who can handle top pairing minutes.

    What about Nurse for Severson? Nurse has high enough potential for it to be enticing for NJ to move Severson. I doubt Chia is open to it, but it’s the type of trade that gets you a good, young RH D without touching anyone who actually helps you win next year.

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    vinotintazo: aaaaand CMD

    Agreed. When the asset in question is a ‘generational talent,’ then by all means, BPA.

    But it bears emphasizing that is an outlier scenario and not the norm, thus the reason not too many Oil fans are crying the blues over Saturday’s results.

  77. vinotintazo says:

    Bag of Pucks: Agreed. When the asset in question is a ‘generational talent,’ then by all means, BPA.

    But it bears emphasizing that is an outlier scenario and not the norm, thus the reason not too many Oil fans are crying the blues over Saturday’s results.

    BPA on 2014 was Bennett, we drafted for need on Leon. so far so good.

  78. rickithebear says:

    When you go back over the years.
    – the teams with the best HSCA D depth
    and/or
    goalies with Above average Save %
    for:
    med chance shots .9200+ SV% 8 out 100 go in
    and
    High Chance shots .8300+ save% 17 out of 100
    are playoff competitive.
    the top 12 GA teams had 53 of the 60 best HSCA D.

    the worst GA teams in the league do not make the playoffs.
    they have the worst Bottom 90 HSC AD depth
    and/or
    one of the worst Med and high chance shot save % golaies.

    In the past saticsitics largely looked at the offensive affect of the Dmen cause the game was more wide open and the offensive value.

    now elite teams have 2-6 HSC AD depth and a heavy emphasis is put on Defending the net.
    top 12 GA teams:
    ANA; WSH; LAK; STL;TMP; PIT; FLD; MIN; NJD; CHI; SJS; NSH
    11 of 12 made the playoffs.
    WSH; PIT; TMP; STL; SJS; NSH 6 are in the final 8
    NYI beat the deepest HSCA team Florida with the best med/high save % goalie (no minimum games) last 3 years.

    Shit D cannot be outscored by the best Even production forwards in the game.

    look no further than our 4 bottom 20 HSC A D.
    Schultz, Gryba. Reinhart, Nurse
    with an average goalie.
    their HSC A numbers yield around 3.00 EVGA/60

    Which exceeds Mcdavids league leading 2.97 EVP/60.

    Please stop suggesting overpaid Offensive D who’s net protection requires 2.75+ EVP/60
    Just stop suggesting any assets for Hamonic, Subban, there brutally awful Defensive play is what the great teams avoid.

    I look at a team with 6 Elite Even production forwards. who have all shown yto break even PvP when healthy.
    Mcdavid
    Eberle
    Hall
    Draisatl
    Pouliot
    RNH

    with 2 of the 60 HSCA D
    Klefbom upper 1st comp
    Davidson bottom 2nd comp

    At start of season I stated Sekera 1st comp HSCA numbers were rough but 2nd comp were top 10 in league.

    Talbot is one of the 7 qualified minutes goalies that had above league average med and High chance shot save % for the last 3 years.
    Price; Schnieder; Holtby; Varlamov; Talbot; Lundquist; reamer.

    ***We need to go after the good veteran UFA HSCA D.
    On one year contratcs.

    Not throw Assets at D who are suited to the onnce apon a time game the oilers played to win cups.

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    vinotintazo: BPA on 2014 was Bennett, we drafted for need on Leon. so far so good.

    Agreed, and another great example.

    BPA is in many ways ‘smartest man in the room’ thinking cos it assumes that we can accurately predict with any degree of certainty the final realized upside of these young men with absolute precision. History has shown that’s clearly not the case, but still we labour under the illusion.

    No one knew definitively back then if Tayor was better than Tyler, or Nuge better than Larsson. It’s all educated guesswork.

    So, if that’s the case, you ignore the true randomness of the draft and the organizational needs of your organization at your own peril.

    The smartest draft philosophy? Acquire as many picks/bullets as you can each year, subject every player to rigorous quantitative AND qualitative analyses, then when the time comes, spin the chamber, let it rip, and hope you survive the outcome.

  80. kinger_OIL says:

    rickithebear,

    – I agree with you a lot here ricki, especially with the risk of a 5×6 year D contract and buddy ends up more like Fayne than Sek: we just never know.

    However you say: “We need to go after the good veteran UFA HSCA D. On one year contratcs.” Who are those guys?

  81. hags9k says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Keith Tkachuk isn’t in the Hall of Fame. Neither is Dave Gagner for that matter.

    Sure, maybe Tkachuk was on a ballot? Anyway, my point remains the same. Don’t let name bias creep in too much.

  82. Woodguy says:

    Woogie63:
    Woodguy,

    Crazy, I missed this.I do enjoy your blog and your thought process.

    No worries, great minds and all amirite?

    Appreciate the kind words.

  83. Rondo says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Sergachev has some of the most impressive numbers of all draftees. Putting up the points he’s had as a rookie D out of Russia is mighty impressive and to do it in the OHL which is the golden standard for prospects on top of that. To be able to adapt so quickly to a different style of hockey on the smaller NA ice as a D-man is a sign of a great head for hockey. I’ve only seen clips of the player but from reports and what little I’ve seen he seems to have a lot of the tools you want in a high end NHL D. I’m intrigued.

    Given what you said why isn’t Sergachev consensus #1 Dman in the draft. I don’t know the answer

  84. Alpine says:

    Rondo: Given what you said why isn’t Sergachev consensus #1 Dman in the draft.I don’t know the answer

    Scouting reports have noted that “his defensive game is improving” so maybe he is or wasn’t very good in that department.

  85. Water Fire says:

    Bag of Pucks: Agreed. When the asset in question is a ‘generational talent,’ then by all means, BPA.

    But it bears emphasizing that is an outlier scenario and not the norm, thus the reason not too many Oil fans are crying the blues over Saturday’s results.

    Great point. BPA is usually far from clear, the players get sorted into groups typically.

    This year there are two that might be elite, might be game breakers. Might be. Probably really good players. The Oilers are pretty strong in this department already with younger types.

    I think that at least two of the defencemen are looking like cornerstone players. The Oilers are still needing help here, especially given there is exactly one ‘established’ version on the team.

    There are no elite goalies to be had, so for me draft a D or trade for one. Hamonic is not worth the 4th straight up, the player drafted IMO will eclipse him before long.

  86. AsiaOil says:

    I agree SP. His OHL numbers almost exactly mirror Seth Jones OHL draft year numbers and he was a serious consideration for 1OV – and Sergachev did it as a rookie Euro transfer with all the cultural baggage to handle at the same time. If people listen to his interviews – his English is amazing for a guy who didn’t speak it at all when he arrived in Canada a year ago. That speaks to intelligence. He’s big, skates very well, has huge wrist and snapshots with effective one-timer, not a defensive wall but not terrible either. He’s the only guy I trade down for – maybe send Dubois to ARZ along with Fayne for #7 and Stone. But Oilers do not handle Russians well AT ALL so that’s a serious issue in drafting Sergachev. I like Dubois a lot though and would be happy to keep him.

    SwedishPoster:
    Sergachev has some of the most impressive numbers of all draftees. Putting up the points he’s had as a rookie D out of Russia is mighty impressive and to do it in the OHL which is the golden standard for prospects on top of that. To be able to adapt so quickly to a different style of hockey on the smaller NA ice as a D-man is a sign of a great head for hockey. I’ve only seen clips of the player but from reports and what little I’ve seen he seems to have a lot of the tools you want in a high end NHL D. I’m intrigued.

  87. Ryder says:

    Hey, long-time reader, first-time poster. Love the blog and the comments section. Thought I’d chime in on what I think Chiarelli should do this summer:

    1. Trade RNH for Barrie

    Don’t like to trade RNH but I believe you need to keep Hall to drive the second line, and Eberle for his right shot on the PP. I like Drai more at center to match up against the big Western centers on home ice and believe RNH’s value will deteriorate on the wing or as a 3C if we keep him too.

    Barrie is very attractive because he should slot in under 6 million while still being a top point producing D. I think if Subban is available, we’d have to overpay for him or else I believe a team like Colorado will offer Duchene up and beat our offer. Also, his 9 million isn’t ideal to fit in with the cap. The other option for offensive D, Vatanen, would probably cost similar money cap wise as Barrie but the underlying numbers from Because Oilers show Barrie is the better performer.

    2. Trade Nurse + Fayne for Hamonic

    There may be small addition on our side of this. Personally, I love Nurse’s character and grit so it’s a hard trade but I’d also think that he’d probably top out around Hamonic’s level, and that’s if everything goes right. So this trade speeds up the rebuild. Other major factor in this is I think we should be able to send Fayne with Nurse to a. replace some of Hamonic’s immediate minutes and b. because I can’t see a team (besides Winnipeg with Trouba) offering as good of D prospect. So we clear valuable space and receive a very friendly contract in return. I’d also move Nurse to clear the LD logjam we have. All upcoming D (except Jones) are LD so this makes room for those D to come in 2 years from now and represent much needed value contracts.

    3. Draft Dubois with the 4th pick

    I think the 4th pick is getting a little undervalued because the top 3 is so fantastic this year. I think most years a team would be ecstatic to get 6’3 200 pound kid who finished 4th in scoring while scoring 40+ goals. Also he has a later birthday. Size + skill + skating is priceless in today’s NHL. This kid gives our roster lots of versatility starting most likely in 2017-18. He can be a cheap 3C or move up to play LW with McDavid. We’ll need a replacement for Maroon on McDavid’s LW in 2 years (when his contract is up) at the latest. I say this because either a. he’ll thrive putting up 50+ point seasons (I’d expect any winger of McDavid’s to produce roughly 60% of his 90+ points he should be getting) and price himself out of Edmonton in 2 years or b. not produce enough and we’ll need a replacement sooner (assuming Pouliot has moved on as well, as rumoured)

    4. Pry Shaw out of Chicago

    Usually, the cap casualties from Chicago come on the cheap (see Ladd, Byfuglien, and Saad). So hopefully something along the lines of 50% Yak (1.25 mil) for Shaw could get it done. Shaw would again give this roster versatility being able to play 3C or RW in the top 6. He’s also a proven winner and young enough to grow with the team at only 24. He’s the perfect mix of tenacity, pest, and skill for the Oilers. Can’t underestimate the value of a guy who knows how to win at the NHL level.

    This gives us this roster skeleton for next year:

    Hall (6)-Drai (1.8)-X <—–very unlikely Drai hits Schedule B bonuses
    Maroon (1.5)-McDavid (3.75)-Eberle (6)
    Pouliot (4)-Shaw (3.3 est.)-X
    Hendricks (1.85)-Letestu(1.8)-Pakarinen (0.8)
    Extra (0.8)-Extra (1)

    Sekera (5.5)-Hamonic (3.8)
    Klefbom (4.2)-Barrie (5.5) <—- slight raise on Reilly's because buying more UFA years
    Davidson (1.4)-X
    Extra (1)

    Talbot (4.2)
    Backup (1)

    Total cap is 61.85 million (including buyouts for Korpikoski and Ference and retaining on Yak) leaving you approximately 10-12 million to work with fo a 1 RW, 3 RW, and 6 D which is very doable. Guys we could personally target are:

    1 RW: Vrbata, Vanek (after expected buyout. He did once sign here so can't be totally opposed to Edmonton), Stempniak, Iginla (wishful thinking but maybe they want money to sign Boedker. He'd be great for the kids and we can afford his 5.3 mil for one year), and Hemsky (wouldn't be popular but probably wouldn't cost much from Dallas and could afford him for one year).

    3 RW: Santorelli, Matthias, Helm, Sceviour. Essentially UFAs costing around 1-3 million who could play center so Shaw could move into top RW spot or if there are injuries.

    6D: I'd play Reinhart if we end up having the money to afford playing him there. If not, Gryba would be a good option if not too expensive, because we will need some of that nastiness that Nurse brought. Easy get anyways.

    Strengths of this roster: Lots of flexibility with players able to move up and down the line up. In 2017/18, we should have 6 natural centers (McDavid, Drai, Shaw, free agent 3 RW, Dubois, and Letestu). Also, there this team is set cap wise too with all key players locked up on cap friendly deals or being RFA controlled. Should be able to keep this team going forward even when Drai and McDavid come off their entry deals.

    Weaknesses: Big weakness is getting poached by the expected expansion draft next year. We'll have 5 key D needing protection (Klef, Hamonic, Barrie, Sekera, Davidson) and 4 forwards (Hall, Ebs, Drai, and Shaw). So it's definitely not ideal to give up major assets for Barrie/Hamonic/Shaw just to see an almost equally key player go the next year. Chiarelli would have to get creative and maybe make a deal with Las Vegas or somehow convince Sekera to waive his NMC as he represents the player who'd be most palatable to move on.

    Sorry for the long first post!

  88. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    AsiaOil:
    If people listen to his interviews – his English is amazing for a guy who didn’t speak it at all when he arrived in Canada a year ago. That speaks to intelligence.

    Don’t disagree with what you are saying, but I wouldn’t put much if any emphasis on his ability to learn a language.

    Datsyuk can barely speak English and might be the “smartest” NHL player of this era.

  89. rickithebear says:

    When looking at CHL Prospects forwards and age NHLE.
    2 key trends are important.
    1. PP production is often not translateable to NHL
    therefore EV production is the best measure.
    2. Prospects playing with players defined as elite talents quite often experience big prod offs in total /Even age NHLE in draft +1.
    players like Marner; Strome;

    I looked at the top 4-5in draft CHl forwards total/even age NHLE since 05-06
    Player – age NHLE – Expected total G total P// EVG EVP @ age 21/22

    2005 draft
    Crosby .729 55G 161P // 38 EVG 86 EVP
    Ryan .625 30G 73P // 18 EVG 44 EVP
    B. Pouliot .510 18G 42P // 14 EVG 28 EVP

    2006 draft
    J. staal .745 25G 62P // 16 EVG 32 EVP

    2007 Draft
    Kane .541 49G 111P // 27 EVG 50 EVP clear case of non translateable PP points

    2008 Draft
    Stamkos .599 45G 84P// 28 EVG 46 EVP

    2009 Draft
    Tavares .500 42G 72P // 27 EVG 54 EVP
    Duchene .583 28G 72P // 20 EVG 47 EVP
    Kane .721 45G 90P // 23 EVG 50 EVP
    Schenn .723 26G 72P // 19EVG 42 EVp

    2010 Draft
    Hall .542 31G 83P // 21 EVG 48 EVP
    Seguin .594 37G 82P / 27 EVG 49 EVP
    Johanssen .719 21G 58P // 14 EVG 41 EVP
    Niedereitter .724 34G 56p // 24 EVG 39 EVP

    2011 Draft
    RNH .646 24G 81P // 18 EVG 42 EVP
    Landeskog .547 31G 56p // 22 EVG 42 EVp
    Hubredeau .681 35G 86p // 23 EVg 56 EVp
    Draft +1 .472 31G 75P // 22 EVG 56 EVP
    R. Strome .703 28G 90p // 21 EVG 58 EVP
    Draft +1 .475 25G 58P // 19EVG 39EVP

    2012
    Yakupov .516 30G 66P // 19 EVG 40 EVP
    Galchenyuk D -1 & D: 30G 66P // 21 EVG 41 EVP

    2013
    Mckinnon .740 43G 100P // 28 EVG 60 EVP
    Drouin .635 43g 110P // 30EVG 60 EVP
    Draft +1 .454 23g 83p // 15 EVG 54 EVP

    2014
    Reinhart .535 26G 75P // 18 EVG 48 EVP
    Draisatl .531 26G 72p // 19 EVG 46 EVp
    Bennett .691 34G 86p // 26 EVG 60 EVP

    2015
    Mcdavid .583 44G 120P // 33 EVG 77 EVP
    D. Strome .620 33G 96P // 23 EVG 59EVP
    Draft +1 .448 24G 72P // 18 EVG 46 EVP
    Marner .660 38G 108P // XXEVG 61 EVP
    Draft +1 .472 26G 78P // 16 EVG 46 EVP

    2016
    Tkachuk .560 29G 85p // 16 EVG 50 EVP
    he is third best scorer on with Dvorak and Marner
    Dubois .694 38 G 90P // 28 EVG 66 EVP
    Nylander .615 25G 60P / 16 EVG 40 EVP

    for intrest
    Debrincitt .563 42G 83P // 28 EVG 50 EVP

    Best Even Age NHLE since 05-06 from top 5 CHL forwards.
    Crosby 86 EVP
    —————————
    Mcdavid 77 EVP
    ————————-
    Dubois 66 EVP yeah about trading #4 NAFC!
    ——————————
    Mckinnon 60 EVP
    Bennett 60 EVP
    ———————————
    Hubredeau 56 EVP
    Drouin 54 EVP
    Tavares 54 EVP
    —————————
    Debrincitt 50 EVP potential 2nd rounder ?????
    E. Kane 50 EVP
    P. Kane 50 EVP
    Tkachuk 50 EVP scares the heck out of me playing with Dvorak and Marner
    Seguin 49 EVP
    Hall 48 EVP
    Reinhart 48 EVP
    Duchene 47 EVP
    Stamkos 46 EVP
    Draisatl 46 EVP
    Marner 46 EVp
    D. Strome 46 EVP
    B. Ryan 44 EVP
    ———————————
    B. Schenn 42 EVP
    RNH 42 EVP
    Landeskog 42 EVP
    Galchenyuk 41 EVP
    Johanssen 41 EVP
    Yakupov 40 EVP
    Nylander 40 EVP
    Niedereitter 39 EVP
    R. Strome 39 EVP
    ——————————-
    J. Staal 32 EVP
    B. Pouliot 28 EVP

  90. AsiaOil says:

    rickithebear: ***We need to go after the good veteran UFA HSCA D.
    On one year contratcs.
    Not throw Assets at D who are suited to the onnce apon a time game the oilers played to win cups.

    Agree man – the Subban whale hunt talk is a bit crazy given his contract – then add all the assets going the either way?

    Demers on a reasonable contract makes sense – but I think he gets “unreasonable” somewhere. Agree that we need to look for value and effective performance instead of silver bullets.

    Was interesting to watch Ellis vs Vatanen in the last series – didn’t look the numbers much but it seemed that Vatanen did better on the possession and scoring that series – not sure about HSCA. Ellis was better during the regular season.

    What your take on Seversen? A potential Yak for Seversen deal could make some sense as we have a 3rd pair RHD slot open to play with Davidson. Say Yak and Fayne for Severson – NJD desperately needs forwards and could even use Fayne who they know and who had success with Green.

  91. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear,

    Pat Kane only had 50 even strength points out of 145?

    That’s nuts. That’s over 1.5ppg on the powerplay alone. That’s the equivalent of some teams powerplay scoring rates.

  92. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    AsiaOil,

    We have inside knowledge on Demers. If we bid a lot for him it’s because the coach thinks he’s worth it. If we don’t it’s because the coach thinks it’s too much.

  93. AsiaOil says:

    rickithebear,

    I would not be surprised if Columbus took Dubois and left Puljujarvi to us – Dubois is really intriguing.

  94. OilLeak says:

    I would do LT’s trade for Subban in a second, he’s a franchise defenseman with elite offense. There seems to be a lot people underrating Subban quite a bit on this board.

  95. AsiaOil says:

    I like the player but we already have a more than “paid in full” 2nd pair dman who is slightly better offensively in Sekera. Word on Demers out of Dallas that I’ve read is that he’s good but already paid in full for what he does at his current salary. Really I thnk we have him already – his name is Brandon Davidson. I like Demers, want to sign him, but we can’t afford another Sekera deal and I think that’s what it will take to get him. Would be happy to be wrong.

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    AsiaOil,

    We have inside knowledge on Demers.If we bid a lot for him it’s because the coach thinks he’s worth it.If we don’t it’s because the coach thinks it’s too much.

  96. Hockey Buddha says:

    I know that Subban is going to require an over payment, but this proposal really doesn’t do it for me:
    – Oilers trade RNH, No. 4, Darnell Nurse, Nail Yakupov ($9,363,333 in cap next year)
    – Habs trade Subban, No. 9, Lars Eller ($12,500,000 in cap next year)
    Nuge is underrated. Subban is overrated. Nurse is a keeper, and I’ve little interest in Eller. Seems like a colossal over payment imo.

  97. Doug McLachlan says:

    Disappointed to see that the Rangers re-upped soon to be UFA back-up Antti Raanta at 2x$1M.

    While not as high on the list of Chia priorities, getting a solid NHL back-up is going to be key and Raanta had the look of just what the Oilers needed.

  98. OilLeak says:

    As for my draft preference for the 4th pick.

    4. Dubois ( utility player, very good offense, youngest of the top prospects)

    5. Sergachev (Goal scoring threat, young age, 1st year in NA and OHL, OHL defenseman of the year)

    6. Chycrun (Outstanding skill set and plus skater, offense stagnated this season, may be underrated if injury held him back early on.)

    I don’t quite value Juolevi in with this group. His offense seems like a question mark on a stacked London Knights team, not much of goal scorer for everyone touting his offensive prowess. I really haven’t seen enough of him to say this definitively, however.

    If the Oilers choose to make the pick, I would be happy with any of those 3 players.

    Edit: London Knights scored 67 more goals than the Windsor Spitfires. Sergachev’s offense looks more impressive.

    Numbers at OHL.Prospects-stats.com seem to favour Sergachev over Juolevi as well.

  99. Ducey says:

    1. Trade RNH for Barrie

    Don’t like to trade RNH but I believe you need to keep Hall to drive the second line, and Eberle for his right shot on the PP. I like Drai more at center to match up against the big Western centers on home ice and believe RNH’s value will deteriorate on the wing or as a 3C if we keep him too.

    Barrie is very attractive because he should slot in under 6 million while still being a top point producing D. I think if Subban is available, we’d have to overpay for him or else I believe a team like Colorado will offer Duchene up and beat our offer. Also, his 9 million isn’t ideal to fit in with the cap. The other option for offensive D, Vatanen, would probably cost similar money cap wise as Barrie but the underlying numbers from Because Oilers show Barrie is the better performer.

    Welcome.

    I don’t mean to pick on you, lots of people have suggested the same, but Nuge for Barrie is crazy IMO.

    Barrie has some nice boxcars, but he is 5’10” and not exactly a great defender. His CF% is 44.2%. That’s pretty lousy. +/- was -17 and I know we don’t worry about that too much but still, when you are that much in the mud, you have to wonder. 21 of his 49 points were 5 x 5 – so 28 were on the PP.

    Except for the PP #’s his numbers are the same as Erik Johnson’s – who no one likes – but who likely played some of the tough minutes to spell off Barrie.

    So you get a small, iffy 5 x 5 player, who excels on the PP for a former #1 overall center, who is exactly what the Oilers need.

    I don’t think we even have this conversation if Barrie is LH.

    Which points to fact that this obsession with handedness is out of control.

    Sign Demers and Gryba. Find an up and coming RH defender and trade Yak for him. Keep Fayne. Balance fixed.

    If the Oilers give up Nuge for Hamonic, Barrie or Vatanen, it will be a massive mistake.

  100. Woodguy says:

    David: It’s a factor, but not a massive one. There are exceptions to everything and in this area there are many exceptions.

    Do you have access to ESPN insider to read the whole piece that was linked?

  101. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil: Agree man – the Subban whale hunt talk is a bit crazy given his contract – then add all the assets going the either way?

    Demers on a reasonable contract makes sense – but I think he gets “unreasonable” somewhere. Agree that we need to look for value and effective performance instead of silver bullets.

    Was interesting to watch Ellis vs Vatanen in the last series – didn’t look the numbers much but it seemed that Vatanen did better on the possession and scoring that series – not sure about HSCA. Ellis was better during the regular season.

    What your take on Seversen? A potential Yak for Seversen deal could make some sense as we have a 3rd pair RHD slot open to play with Davidson. Say Yak and Fayne for Severson – NJD desperately needs forwards and could even use Fayne who they know and who had success with Green.

    Severson is legit 2nd pair imo.

  102. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    When looking at CHL Prospects forwards and age NHLE.
    2 key trends are important.
    1. PP production is often not translateable to NHL
    therefore EV production is the best measure.
    2. Prospects playing with players defined as elite talents quite often experience big prod offs in total /Even age NHLE in draft +1.
    players like Marner; Strome;

    I looked at the top 4-5in draft CHl forwards total/even age NHLE since 05-06
    Player – age NHLE – Expected total G total P// EVG EVP @ age 21/22

    2005 draft
    Crosby .72955G 161P // 38 EVG 86 EVP
    Ryan .625 30G 73P // 18 EVG 44 EVP
    B. Pouliot .510 18G 42P // 14 EVG 28 EVP

    2006 draft
    J. staal .745 25G 62P // 16 EVG 32 EVP

    2007 Draft
    Kane .541 49G 111P // 27 EVG 50 EVP clear case of non translateable PP points

    2008 Draft
    Stamkos .599 45G 84P// 28 EVG 46 EVP

    2009 Draft
    Tavares .500 42G 72P // 27 EVG 54 EVP
    Duchene .583 28G 72P // 20 EVG 47 EVP
    Kane .721 45G 90P // 23 EVG 50 EVP
    Schenn .723 26G 72P // 19EVG 42 EVp

    2010 Draft
    Hall .542 31G 83P // 21 EVG 48 EVP
    Seguin .594 37G 82P / 27 EVG49 EVP
    Johanssen .719 21G 58P // 14 EVG 41 EVP
    Niedereitter .724 34G 56p // 24 EVG 39 EVP

    2011 Draft
    RNH.646 24G 81P // 18 EVG 42 EVP
    Landeskog .547 31G 56p // 22 EVG 42 EVp
    Hubredeau .681 35G 86p // 23 EVg 56 EVp
    Draft +1 .472 31G 75P //22 EVG56 EVP
    R. Strome .703 28G 90p // 21 EVG 58 EVP
    Draft +1 .475 25G 58P //19EVG 39EVP

    2012
    Yakupov .516 30G 66P // 19 EVG 40 EVP
    Galchenyuk D -1 & D: 30G 66P // 21 EVG 41 EVP

    2013
    Mckinnon .740 43G 100P // 28 EVG 60 EVP
    Drouin .635 43g 110P //30EVG 60 EVP
    Draft +1 .454 23g 83p // 15 EVG 54 EVP

    2014
    Reinhart .535 26G 75P // 18 EVG 48 EVP
    Draisatl .531 26G 72p // 19 EVG 46 EVp
    Bennett .691 34G 86p // 26 EVG 60 EVP

    2015
    Mcdavid .583 44G 120P // 33 EVG 77 EVP
    D. Strome .62033G 96P //23 EVG59EVP
    Draft +1 .448 24G 72P // 18 EVG 46 EVP
    Marner .660 38G 108P // XXEVG 61 EVP
    Draft +1 .472 26G 78P // 16 EVG 46 EVP

    2016
    Tkachuk .560 29G 85p // 16 EVG 50 EVP
    he is third best scorer on with Dvorak and Marner
    Dubois .694 38 G 90P // 28 EVG 66 EVP
    Nylander .615 25G 60P / 16 EVG 40 EVP

    for intrest
    Debrincitt .563 42G 83P // 28 EVG 50 EVP

    Best Even Age NHLE since 05-06 from top 5 CHL forwards.
    Crosby 86 EVP
    —————————
    Mcdavid 77 EVP
    ————————-
    Dubois 66 EVP yeah about trading #4 NAFC!
    ——————————
    Mckinnon 60 EVP
    Bennett 60 EVP
    ———————————
    Hubredeau 56 EVP
    Drouin 54 EVP
    Tavares 54 EVP
    —————————
    Debrincitt 50 EVP potential 2nd rounder ?????
    E. Kane 50 EVP
    P. Kane 50 EVP
    Tkachuk 50 EVP scares the heck out of me playing with Dvorak and Marner
    Seguin 49 EVP
    Hall 48 EVP
    Reinhart 48 EVP
    Duchene 47 EVP
    Stamkos 46 EVP
    Draisatl 46 EVP
    Marner 46 EVp
    D. Strome 46 EVP
    B. Ryan 44 EVP
    ———————————
    B. Schenn 42 EVP
    RNH 42 EVP
    Landeskog 42 EVP
    Galchenyuk 41 EVP
    Johanssen 41 EVP
    Yakupov 40 EVP
    Nylander 40 EVP
    Niedereitter 39 EVP
    R. Strome 39 EVP
    ——————————-
    J. Staal 32 EVP
    B. Pouliot 28 EVP

    Agreed all points Mr. Bear.

    I take The French Toews and I think the Oilers do too.

  103. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    AsiaOil,

    We have inside knowledge on Demers.If we bid a lot for him it’s because the coach thinks he’s worth it.If we don’t it’s because the coach thinks it’s too much.

    Same coach who let Nurse get his head kicked in while Fayne went to the AHL?

  104. Woodguy says:

    Ryder,

    Excellent first post.

    Welcome.

  105. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    If that’s the extent of your opinion on the coach then we’ve got a big problem.

  106. maxwell_mischief says:

    I get the feeling “sh*ts goin down” this summer

  107. David says:

    Woodguy: Do you have access to ESPN insider to read the whole piece that was linked?

    No I could only get a snippet.

  108. Water Fire says:

    Subban is to defense as Kessel is to RW, at $8 million.

    Help? Yes.
    Worth a king’s ransom. No.
    A distraction? Yes.
    Worth it? ?

  109. AsiaOil says:

    I don’t think the Oilers need to over-think this. Unless a really good top 4 RHD of the right age is available (think Trouba) you just make the pick at #4. We either get Dubois or Puljujarvi falls to us – happy both ways. Trading down implies smartest kid in the room and we’ve seen how that turns out – so that’s off the table – unless it’s part of a deal to get a top 4 RHD of the right age.

  110. Ryder says:

    Ducey,

    Appreciate the welcome. You’re not picking on me in the least, it’s a very valid opinion. RNH is under appreciated sometimes with the arrival of McDavid.

    I would like to target a better D for RNH but there’s no good matches that I can see. Subban is worth more while Vatanen and Shattenkirk (with his one year) are worth less. I like Demers too, but you’re battling 29 other teams to sign him so I think he will get overpriced in free agency.

    If you dig deeper into Barrie, his relative Corsi is actually quite high as Colorado was a poor possession team overall. And 21 EV points is nothing to sneeze at. And his PP production is a big part of his value. Demers doesn’t show the same ability here. He’s also 24 with only 3 full NHL seasons so he has room to grow.

    So overall, I’d be very open to looking at other D options but right now I think Barrie makes the most sense (maybe you could get them to add). I believe this summer is the time to move one of the $6 million men because its best to have the salary available to take on similar value coming back, rather than a strict dump a la Chicago. Also, I think it should be RNH because he is the most redundant of them (even though he is still very valuable).

  111. Ryder says:

    Woodguy,

    Thank you

  112. AsiaOil says:

    Woodguy: Severson is legit 2nd pair imo.

    Davidson-Severson as a 3rd pair might be very nice (and very affordable) indeed.

  113. Lowetide says:

    Welcome, Ryder. That was a fabulous read.

  114. Water Fire says:

    6 months in most phases of life amounts to little personal change or growth. But there are people who encounter exceptional circumstances, such as rising above the thousands of players in junior hockey to become one of the best players in the world at your age.

    If that happens then six months or an extra season is a huge deal. A prospect’s age matters a lot when you are looking for elite players, as Pronman has come to understand and the tall foreheads have shown but is probably gone.

  115. Santa says:

    LT,

    I haven’t heard anyone talk about Rem Pitlick, who put up numbers very similar to Clayton Keller this year. Is he the next Johnny Gaudreau? Worth taking a chance on in the fourth round or so? Finally, have any scouts that you talk to mentioned him?

  116. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Woodguy: Do you have access to ESPN insider to read the whole piece that was linked?

    It’s funny, If you subscribe to ESPN the Magazine, you get access to the insider stuff as part of the subscription.

    About three years ago, I subscribed just so I could read Pronman’s stuff, didn’t really care for the magazine, but figured why not spend the 10 bucks(or whatever) to be able to read Pronman’s stuff.

    Turns out, three years later, I still get the magazine, which actually has some good content, the body issue alone is almost worth subscribing. I’ve only ever been billed for the first year, AND I still get access to the insider stuff.

    I almost feel guilty, but not enough yet to tell on myself, so shhh.

  117. Ryder says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you, much appreciated. Love the blog!

  118. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Woodguy,

    If that’s the extent of your opinion on the coach then we’ve got a big problem.

    I don’t see my opinion on a coach as a problem for anyone.

    He did that to Nurse and it took him forever to fix it.

    That’s a big red flag.

    I think he’s an experienced, capable NHL coach, but his handling of the Dcorps was pretty shitty for 1/3 of the season.

  119. Woodguy says:

    David: to

    I can’t reproduce it as its pay walled and I respect that, but he took the data from 20 or so years of drafts to come to his conclusion.

    It very comepelling.

  120. Rondo says:

    rickithebear,

    What do you make of this

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/05/02/expected-draft-value-of-a-chl-forward-selected-top-90-overall/

    The NHLP scores for some of the top forwards in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft are: Tkachuk 79, Nylander 71, Dubois 66, Brown 63, MacLeod 61, Gauthier 53, Jones 44

  121. square_wheels says:

    Rondo,

    The conversion of OHL vs QJ clearly favours Tkachuk and Nylander, but I’m with Ricki in that EV scoring has a stronger likelihood of converting to the NHL regardless of CHL league bias.

    Dubois has some lofty company and checks all the boxes I’d use to evaluate the top F’s – big, C/LW, snarly, 200ft player and great skater.

    There is every chance he ends up as the 2nd best player in this draft.

    As someone who has a huge love/hate with Zubov from years of him destroying us – is Sergachev a comparable ?

  122. rickithebear says:

    Rondo:
    rickithebear,

    What doyou make of this

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/05/02/expected-draft-value-of-a-chl-forward-selected-top-90-overall/

    The NHLP scores for some of the top forwards in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft are: Tkachuk 79, Nylander 71, Dubois 66, Brown 63, MacLeod 61, Gauthier 53, Jones 44

    This is a rip off of m. Schuckers work at st. Lawerance. 200gm draft pick chart value.

    But still good work.

  123. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    rickithebear,

    Pat Kane only had 50 even strength points out of 145?

    That’s nuts.That’s over 1.5ppg on the powerplay alone.That’s the equivalent of some teams powerplay scoring rates.

    Desjardins established.
    Draft year performance curves.
    This draft a set 18 1997 player will translate 50% of there CHL production
    Were as a
    Sept 14 98 player will translate 75%

    Because of kanes age he should translate 54.1 of his chl production.
    London has a history of giving insane minutes on pp.
    Other junior teams do this.

    You take kanes CHL evg/gm and evp/gm and multiply them by his expected translation by age.
    Then multiply the 2 values by 82 nhl gm.

    It results in an expected 27 evg and 50 evp at age 21 or 22.

    Dubois shows the 3 rd best chl translated numbers since mcdavid and crosby.

    You pick this young man and laugh that one of the best prospects in 10 years is going to cost you # 4 money for 3 years.

  124. MrEd says:

    Ducey,

    +1

  125. MrEd says:

    Woodguy,

    Yay! +1

  126. rickithebear says:

    I was at Atco power/electric service recognition award on Sat with Brighton Beach power plant mgr.

    Turns out his good friends son played for a couple years in NHL in CAR.
    Brett bellimore is now in the BOS organization.

    I walked BB’s PM thru the Hsca D rankings and told him to show it to Brett and his dad.
    Showed his top 90 HSCA D facing 1st comp.
    I hope they show his agent!

  127. Blue Bullet says:

    rickithebear: This is a rip off of m. Schuckers work at st. Lawerance. 200gm draft pick chart value.

    But still good work.

    I had to go read the article I ripped off. It was a good read thanks for turning me on to it. Guess great minds think alike. Some like me are just a little later to the party lol.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca