RE 15-16 PATRICK MAROON: ROSE COLORED GLASSES

Going through the Oilers back pages, Patrick Maroon’s late season heroics are right up there with the best of them. He arrived at the deadline—actually after it, we thought Edmonton was done—and then went off down the stretch. In doing so, he established himself as a major portion of the future at forward. Question: Is anyone concerned about a little thing called sample size? No? If not, why not? (Rose Colored Glasses).

PATRICK MAROON 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.85 (No. 1 among forwards with 15+ games)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 8.09 (No. 1 among forwards with 15+ games)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.3%
  • Qual Comp: 14th toughest competition among regulars (fourth line)*
  • Qual Team: 4th best teammates among regulars (second line)*
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: +5.3
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 39 shots/20.5%
  • Boxcars: 16GP, 8-6-14

*Includes his entire season.

WAR ON ICE PLAYER CHART

war on ice sledgehammer

Patrick Maroon shows us with a gorgeous bubble but we can see he is playing in a very sweet spot. Ideally, he would be right back there (with McDavid and Eberle) next season. This is something to shoot for next season, but not expected—that would ignore a lot of information.

  1. He will score 40 goals next season. That would be outstanding. I believe it is folly to expect it and do fear there are those who do.
  2. Boy, you can’t let people have fun can you? I think this is exactly the kind of thing that can lead to incredible disappointment. If you look at his season overall, that is a far better line in the sand for what should be expected.
  3. What were his overall boxcars? Including both Oilers and Ducks, he went 72gp, 12-15-27.
  4. What were his Anaheim boxcars? He went 56gp, 4-9-13.
  5. He didn’t play with Connor McDavid in Anaheim. There is every chance he will play with McDavid next season, but the team has other options. Slumps, injuries, these things happen. Assuming Maroon plays with McDavid then we can certainly expect a spike in offense, but 40 goals is not reasonable.
  6. Why? Let me put it this way. I think 40 goals from McDavid’s left winger is possible, but see no good reason to assume Maroon will play 82 games on 97’s left wing.
  7. Is this about your man Hall? No. As a matter of fact, I think Todd McLellan will roll those two on different lines for the most part—although that is an itch that will be scratched from time to time I am sure.
  8. Is this about your man Benoit Pouliot? Yes, at least a little bit. He is a better overall player than Maroon.
  9. Pouliot is old as the hills! He is less than two years older than Maroon.
  10. Who performed better with McDavid? Maroon was 49.1 Corsi for 5×5 Percentage and went 4-3-7 in 133:57 with 97. That works out to 3.14 points-per-60 at 5×5.
  11. Is that better than Pouliot? Pouliot was 53.6 Corsi for 5×5 Percentage and went 3-11-14 in 285:50 with McDavid. That works out to 2.94 points-per-60 at 5×5.
  12. Who is better? They both did very well. I would prefer Pouliot because for me the idea of giving the more complete player to McDavid makes sense.
  13. How did Hall do with McDavid? Hall was 56.6 Corsi for 5×5 Percentage with him but scored only one goal.
  14. Small sample size? Yes, but it is also true the opposition can put out their best against both when the second line can’t threaten. I think we will see it next season, the injury to McDavid cut off a lot of experimental time.
  15. What is the best thing about him? Maroon is a value contract even at 30 points, he can cover his bet in terms of cap and what it took to get him. Peter Chiarelli took a lot of heat over his summer moves—with good reason—but this one, later in the year, when he had a chance to see the roster, worked very well.
  16. Was this the best move by Chiarelli in season one? You could make that argument, I would point to the acquisition of Andrej Sekera as my top choice.
  17. Is there a risk? Yes. If the Oilers bet heavily on Maroon, by trading Pouliot as a for instance, that could bite them in the ass and be considered an unforced error.
  18. Why this song? I always found this to be a hopeful song, but the title fits this scenario. I think Maroon has a chance to be one of those very rare value deals that pays off in a big way and that fits the hopeful part of the song.

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40 Responses to "RE 15-16 PATRICK MAROON: ROSE COLORED GLASSES"

  1. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Your point 17 is spot on.

    Maroon’s shooting percentage here was ridiculous. Even if we grant that some of it is McDavid’s doing we can’t assume Maroon can keep up that kind of percentage.

    I have him as 3LW next year and able to move up during the inevitable Pouliot injury time. That’s a very valuable player. In fact, next to C, LW is the Oilers’ strongest position (soon possibly eclipsed by LHD).

  2. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’ve been pointing out his 41 goal pace.

    I promise it’s not because I think he’s a 41 goal scorer.

    What scares me about Maroon is that he represents a really good opportunity for us to do something really stupid about 9 months from now.

    We could potentially overpay him by a boatload next spring. The kind of overpay where the guy is still good, but the fans hate him because he isn’t earning the dollars. Like Horcoff squared.

    I like the player. I do. Promise.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    next year 3rd or 4th line of

    Maroon – Khaira – Klassen

    would be tough for the opposition to handle … AKA the NYI Martin line

  4. jp says:

    I wholeheartedly agree LT. Maroon had a really nice run down the stretch, but 15-20 goals is a far more reasonable expectation than 30-40.

    One of the first things I thought after he was traded for was that he brought some solid 3rd line offense, and maybe he had some room to grow with top linemates in Edmonton. Then I checked, and his most comment linemates in Anaheim were Getzlaf and Perry (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1547&withagainst=true&season=2013-16&sit=5v5).

    So he’s been playing with top linemates all along and putting up 3rd line offense. He’s a solid addition for sure, but he definitely isn’t consistently the player we saw down the stretch. I agree that Pouliot is the better player, and hope they don’t send him away after penciling Maroon in for 30-30-60 next year.

  5. RexLibris says:

    The fact that Chiarelli had the Ducks retain salary on Maroon suggests he sees what this player is, without the aforementioned ocular embellishments.

    The old guard would probably had discussed an extension by now and begun deliberating on whether to keep Hall or Maroon.

    I suspect Chiarelli likes Maroon but sees the ceiling on the player.

  6. Melman says:

    At the risk of unnecessary fawning, a tap of the stick to you LT on Maroon. I recall an article years ago when you were doing your AHL targets on ON and you had Maroon as a prime target from the Anaheim system. Congrats on not linking to yourself in an “I told you so” post.

    Agree that 97 can/will make all kinds of players look great, but there is no shame in delivering on the opportunity. Chemistry is a wild card, lord knows the good folks in Van. have seen all kinds not deliver on the Sedin wing – besides Burrows (spits) there’s a reasonable argument that Anson Carter was last best fit. Maroon has looked good in the small sample and while Poo may be better overall, perhaps some of Maroon’s physical intangibles tip the scales + he has playoff experience this team needs. Semenko with hands? $5 says he’s smart enough to see the opportunity and rolls into TC in wicked shape and a 1/2 step faster.

  7. RexLibris says:

    Melman: Chemistry is a wild card, lord knows the good folks in Van. have seen all kinds not deliver on the Sedin wing – besides Burrows (spits) there’s a reasonable argument that Anson Carter was last best fit.

    I’d argue that Vrbata was pretty good there last season.

    But it is a third-wheel arrangement there, so guys may have one or two good seasons and then move on.

    I think we’re probably looking at something similar with Maroon.

    I like him and hope he has a good season next year, because the Oilers will need everybody having good seasons if they hope to stand a chance. However, it is also important to avoid any overpayments based on good season like we have seen more recently with the Blackhawks.

  8. Melman says:

    jp,

    One thing that’s interesting to consider is that Getzlaf and Perry are both big boys who can handle themselves and so the benefits of Maroon’s physical game might not have had as beneficial an impact playing with those 2 guys. I’m not saying that size trumps skill, but there’s other examples of fit pulling a player above expected levels of production (eg. Chris Kunitz) that might cause an outlier situation. Not to say that Maroon is irreplaceable, moreso saying that the marginal difference in what he can deliver playing with 97 might be greater than what others could muster, or what he could do with someone else – particularly when salary is factored in.

  9. Melman says:

    RexLibris,

    Vrbata ripped it at the start, but it didn;t even last a season and this year was a train wreck. Could very well be a short stint scenario, and really at what they are paying him it’s a perfect setup. He can either rip the cover off the ball for a season and a half and then you can a) sell high, b) buy low (him getting the benefit of playing with 97 if he still is), or c) shuffle him to 3rd line at a decent contract and let him walk knowing that 97 will make anyone look great without having to pay them top $

  10. stush18 says:

    I picked maroon a couple years ago in a playoff pool as a sleeper pick. Ended up being one of my best picks, and favourites to this day.

    All skill, or all size, or all heaviness one a line doesn’t seem to typically matter. It becomes too easy to defend against a line when you know no one on the line will dump the puck, or only dumps, or likes using there size. Maroon played well with getzlaf and perry on the powerplay, because he could park his big rig in front of the net and let them play. During the game however, that line was too slow. They really struggled this year together.

    Here’s hoping he can turn into Kunitz.

  11. Wolfie says:

    So Matheson was suggesting Draisaitl, the 4th and Klefbom for Subban and the 7th!!!! That’s insanity.

    The Pronger trades have to have established the market for a #1 D. If I recall it was Lupul, Smid, a 1st rounder and a conditional pick…

    I don’t really see an equivalent deal the Oilers can offer… The 4th overall has more value then the 1st rounder Anaheim gave up… Even if it turned into Eberle. Smid was a top 6 guy but not a first pairing defender and he was unproven. Lupul was a young 2nd liner with some upside….

    I get that salary had to even out. Even Nuge and the 4th feels like a slight overpay but I would probably do it. Leon is off limits. So is Klefbom for that matter. It feels like 1 step forward and 1 step back…

  12. Cahoon says:

    RexLibris:
    The old guard would probably had discussed an extension by now and begun deliberating on whether to keep Hall or Maroon.
    er.

    I’m not a fan of the ‘old guard’ myself, but I think that statement is a touch hyperbolic. They may have made foolish moves, but not THAT foolish.

  13. square_wheels says:

    Heading to work in the am (Ft Mc). First thing I thought of…….I’m going to need some Laphroiag.

  14. Ducey says:

    Woogie63:
    next year 3rd or 4th line of

    Maroon – Khaira – Klassen

    would be tough for the opposition to handle … AKA the NYI Martin line

    That Klassen guy better be good.

  15. godot10 says:

    It the Oilers intend to play a possession/controlled-zone-entry game/rush game, Pouliot is the better option for McDavid’s port side.

    If the Oilers intend to to give McDavid 70% O-zone starts, Maroon is the better option.

    If the OIlers intend to play dump and chase, against skating teams, Pouliot is the better option. Against slower teams, Maroon is the better option.

    But it is ultimately matchup dependent. I think having the option to switch between Pouliot and Maroon is a good thing, because in some matchup’s, Pouliot’s superior skating and ability on the rush will be an advantage. Maroon is better in the cycle game.

    I want McDavid to play a rush game, so in general terms, Pouliot is the superior option.

    But then this is all dependent on who the right wing is. If the right wing is Puljujarvi, rather than Eberle, this works to the advantage of Maroon over Pouliot, because Puljujarvi is a strong rush player who is a superior skater. Maroon’s slowness will detract much less from McDavid’s game, if Puljujarvi is playing right wing.

    Aside: Pouliot takes dump penalties in the offensive zone. It is annoying, but I can live with it.

  16. fifthcartel says:

    Any thoughts on Scott Cullen’s Off-Season Game Plan for the Oilers?

    http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-plan-edmonton-oilers-1.484095

    Looks like his hypothetical movies are:

    RNH for Hamonic and Kulemin (50% retained)
    Mark Letestu as 3C (oh god)
    Chris Kelly and Troy Brouwer signings.
    Garret Wilson (signing/trade?)
    Korpikoski buyout

    I really like reading Cullen’s stuff on TSN but I’d be very surprised if this was the roster.

  17. JJ says:

    Does anyone know if there Is an app available that will delete any comment that mentions trading RNH (or Hall, Klefblom, Davidson, Nurse, etc. for that matter)?

    RNH is my kind of player. Smart, effective, 200 foot, understated. Oiler fans paid dearly for him and I don’t see why we should give him away. He is our Pavel.

  18. jp says:

    Melman,

    Yes, absolutely Maroon might be a nice stylistic complement to McDavid (and Eberle?).

    Mostly just agreeing with LT that we have to temper expectations a bit.

  19. RexLibris says:

    Cahoon: I’m not a fan of the ‘old guard’ myself, but I think that statement is a touch hyperbolic. They may have made foolish moves, but not THAT foolish.

    I absolutely never engage in hyperbole! That you would suggest such a thing is the most outlandish thing I have ever read on this blog!

    🙂

    It was a touch of humour pointed at how the old decision making used to work, along with a dash of perpetual fan paranoia about the “braintrust” making some mistake of epochal proportions. (there’s that damned hyperbole showing up again!)

  20. RexLibris says:

    Wolfie:
    So Matheson was suggesting Draisaitl, the 4th and Klefbom for Subban and the 7th!!!!That’s insanity.

    The Pronger trades have to have established the market for a #1 D.If I recall it was Lupul, Smid, a 1st rounder and a conditional pick…

    I don’t really see an equivalent deal the Oilers can offer…The 4th overall has more value then the 1st rounder Anaheim gave up… Even if it turned into Eberle.Smid was a top 6 guy but not a first pairing defender and he was unproven.Lupul was a young 2nd liner with some upside….

    I get that salary had to even out.Even Nuge and the 4th feels like a slight overpay but I would probably do it.Leon is off limits.So is Klefbom for that matter.It feels like 1 step forward and 1 step back…

    If I were Bergevin that is at least what I would ask for.

    Not arguing that the Oilers should do it automatically, but from a Montreal perspective they’d have to expect no less if they ever came to the decision to move him.

  21. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: yeah 21% shoot%, playing with McDavid, small sample size: I’m not a believer

    – Shows how good McD is. For next 10 years McD’s wingers should be on perma-pump&dump!

  22. Gordies Elbow says:

    RexLibris: If I were Bergevin that is at least what I would ask for.

    Not arguing that the Oilers should do it automatically, but from a Montreal perspective they’d have to expect no less if they ever came to the decision to move him.

    Problem Bergevin has is that very few teams have those assets, and even fewer have the cap space to make a deal.

    Name another team that would offer a 22 year old 2nd pairing defender with first pairing upside signed to a long term value contract, a 20 year old former Memorial cup MVP big body playmaking centre coming off of a 51 point season, and the ability to move up 4 slots to pick up a player with virtually the same stats? No other team could come close to that deal, and with that much of an overpay (and given the mess that it would make of Edmonton’s cap,) not a chance it occurs.

    At that price, Bergevin can keep planet PK. That said, I think Bergevin’s looking to get out from under the PK contract, and the NMC is getting bigger in the window. Interesting times.

  23. Ice Sage says:

    square_wheels:
    Heading to work in the am (Ft Mc). First thing I thought of…….I’m going to need some Laphroiag.

    Careful, that stuff’s flammable 😉

    I like Maroon. Big men with hands help hockey teams win.

  24. Wolfie says:

    You can’t empty your clip for PK. Leon and Klef and the 4th is drastic. I’m not sure the difference in quality between Klefbom and Subban is worth the gap in pay. Add to that the extreme value of Leon and the fact the pick is the best of the rest… I don’t see this trade giving the Oilers enough. It’s hard to be unbiased. I think there is a deal to be made and it will probably sting a little but it shouldn’t gut what little depth the Oilers have…

  25. stush18 says:

    Gordies Elbow: Problem Bergevin has is that very few teams have those assets, and even fewer have the cap space to make a deal.

    Name another team that would offer a 22 year old 2nd pairing defender with first pairing upside signed to a long term value contract, a 20 year old former Memorial cup MVP big body playmaking centre coming off of a 51 point season, and the ability to move up 4 slots to pick up a player with virtually the same stats? No other team could come close to that deal, and with that much of an overpay (and given the mess that it would make of Edmonton’s cap,) not a chance it occurs.

    At that price, Bergevin can keep planet PK. That said, I think Bergevin’s looking to get out from under the PK contract, and the NMC is getting bigger in the window. Interesting times.

    Name the teams willing to give up a bonafide number one dman?

    Even less than the teams willing to trade for it.

    That’s why we need to draft dmen, trades for elite dmen never happen anymore. Pronger was the last of a dying breed

  26. jfry says:

    I think that maroon’s physicality and ability to “protect” mcdavid hasn’t been stated enough, and it’s something pouliot can’t do. I think the GM values it and mcdavid probably does too.

    I agree with all his other negatives but he’s the only player who can play with skill that has this skill set at the moment. Kassian failed his audition, and we don’t know if lucic is coming here. Until then maroon is a very unique player in our franchise.

  27. AsiaOil says:

    I like Maroon – big, physical, leadership, shows accountability. Don’t count on the goal scoring to continue though (BJ McDonald cough cough). He’s a nice option on CMDs port-side for tough matches against big teams that deny the rush. A 2nd-3rd line tweener and Chia/TMAc have already said so out loud. Nice pick up for a good price.

  28. Ice Sage says:

    stush18: Name the teams willing to give up a bonafide number one dman?

    Even less than the teams willing to trade for it.

    That’s why we need to draft dmen, trades for elite dmen never happen anymore. Pronger was the last of a dying breed

    And Pronger wanted out, announcing it publicly. Oilers were in a position of weakness there. That curse continues JKJK

  29. Dustylegnd says:

    Good lord people….we got this dude Maroon for a bag of pucks and a 4th round draft pick. Based on the OIL’S PREVIOUS DRAFT HISTORY, we got a bonafide big Nasty NHLer for free! Now Oiler’s nation waxes on about how we will over pay him, and expect 40 goals next season…how about 15 goals and the expectation of feces in the pants of more than one Flames D man. This is not the incompetent partnership of Kevin Lowe and his band of fools that “Know a little something about winning” but rather a Harvard educated University of Ottawa Lawyer…..who recently headed up a Stanley cup winning organization in Boston. He is no fool, my only concern with Chia is that he continues to tolerate MaCtavish and Howson in his employment. What the Oil have DOES NOT WORK…..what are we afraid of finishing 33rd next year???? We can’t do worse and the time for real change is over due. This move to add Maroon was an absolute steal, he has limited skill and a finite upside, but we got him for FREE, tip your hat to a very savy move that helps alleviate the pain of the engineered stupidity of Bob Green and his love affair with the clydesdale know as Reinhart….. I don’t envy Chia or the shackles he has inherited, but he is a a big boy more than capable of tearing the bandaid off to STOP THE INSANITY

  30. bendelson says:

    Dustylegnd,

    The Maroon trade was great but pales in comparison to the Klassen addition.
    The kid has literally come out of nowhere. The new Pisani?

  31. Hockey Buddha says:

    Maroon was on fire after he arrived here, playing with McDavid. Maroon’s Past history says that he battles with consistency, so it will be very interesting to watch him next season. The team needs him to perform; still, it’s hard to imagine Maroon maintaining this season’s pace with the team into next season. If he is 70-80% as productive offensively in the upcoming season, the Oilers have a very useful player on their hands.

    * * *
    On a side note, I have a few relatives who left Fort McMurray literally with nothing more than the clothes on their back. Quite a nerve-racking experience, they said, crawling down the highway at a snail’s pace with ashes raining down on their car.

    Two notables mentioned by one of my aunts, worth repeating (I’m sure there are countless other such stories out there, but I’ll share these): (1) a thoughtful woman from Athabasca with a huge smile was giving away free jerry can’s of gasoline on highway just to help people out (she had spent $500 of her own money on gasoline to give away); my aunts made it safely to my house because of her thoughtfulness, and (2) the owners of a Shoppers Drug Mart in Edmonton, upon finding out that one of my aunts and the people she was with were evacuees told them that whatever they needed was on the house. Kudos to those good people, and all the best to those from Fort McMurray and surrounding areas who have had their lives overturned by the wildfires. A big thank you also to all the people working long days combating the fires and to all those cool people showing kindness and generosity in various ways to people in need.

  32. "Steve Smith" says:

    bendelson,

    Fuck you, Bendersen.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    I have no idea what Maroon will do next year; but he’s been a top performer on every team he’s played for in junior and the AHL. He never got on track with Ducks outside the playoffs, but the change of scenery clearly worked for him. I won’t be shocked if scores 30 next year with McDavid.

  34. soup says:

    Question for the masses. Does #4 overall get you Trouba? If so, would it be worth it?

  35. Lowetide says:

    soup:
    Question for the masses. Does #4 overall get you Trouba? If so, would it be worth it?

    Trouba is a little dangerous imo. Year one was splendid but he took a step back this year. No idea why, but he is a player I am less enamored of than a year ago.

  36. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. Trouba had a very good first year, but has regressed consistently since then.

    He also apparently wants the Taylor Hall contract despite his mediocre performance.

    No thanks.

  37. Water Fire says:

    # 4 this year is a top notch player with size. It is a very valuable pick compared to many years. I would only trade it for a bona fide top echelon D or in a package that nets a player currently equal to the potential of the #4. Anything else is a net loss. Net losses have already devastated the Oilers.

    Players like Trouba and Hamonic aren’t that good, not as good as the potential of PLD, Tkachuk, Chychrun or Juolevi etc. To get Trouba (whom I wouldn’t because he wants a big contract he hasn’t earned and has a dense agent unaware of cap issues apparently), I would offer Nurse, or Reinhart +, and that’s it. Jets get cap relief and a quality prospect.

  38. G Money says:

    The complete list of 40+ goal scorers in the last five years:

    Stamkos**
    Ovechkin*, **
    Malkin
    Perry
    P. Kane*
    Iginla
    Nash
    Benn*
    Gaborik
    Kesler
    Pavelski
    D. Sedin
    Neal
    Tarasenko*

    * achieved it this season
    ** more than one 40+ goal season

    If you think Maroon can hit 40 goals next year, or even if “you’re not sure” if he can …

    … you’re batshit crazy.

    The only guy on the Oilers with a realistic shot of hitting 40+ is McDavid, and that’s no sure thing. For the record, he was on pace for 29 goals this season.

  39. maudite says:

    The best part is, at least for this season, the left side is structured properly in terms of salary for the 3 lines.

    4 mil
    6 mil
    1.5 mil

    Mix and match however it works but 11.5 mil for top 3 lines lw is perfectly reasonable.

  40. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Trouba is a little dangerous imo. Year one was splendid but he took a step back this year. No idea why, but he is a player I am less enamored of than a year ago.

    Not much power play time, and he played a lot on the left side instead of the right since Byfuglien and Myers played the right side. Playing on the left side makes his stats look worse…what did Woodguy say…6% Corsi effect playing the wrong side on average.

    Trouba will not be playing the left side in Edmonton, and he will be on the #1PP

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