LONG DAYS AND NIGHTS IN THE PROCUREMENT DEPARTMENT

The Edmonton Oilers appear to have the No. 4 overall selection in play, but they also have to compile a list just in case nothing is shaking when the podium calls. If the team stays at No. 4, my guess is one of three men (Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Tkachuk and Olli Juolevi) are in that slot. Which one is it? Ah, that my friend is the question.

THE 120 BEST PLAYERS IN THE 2016 DRAFT

  1. (1) C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): 2GP, 2-1-3 at WHCs.
  2. (2) W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): 2GP, 4-2-6 at WHCs.
  3. (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): 4GP, 5-2-7 at U18s.
  4. (4) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL): 12GP, 7-5-12 in playoffs.
  5. (5)  L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): 16GP, 19-20-39 in playoffs. !!!
  6. (6) LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): 5GP, 2-3-5 in playoffs.
  7. (8) LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): 16GP, 2-10-12 in playoffs.
  8. (7) C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): 7GP, 4-10-14 at U18s.
  9. (9) LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): 7GP, 2-6-8 in playoffs.
  10. (10) RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL): 7GP, 0-8-8 at U18s.
  11. (11) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): Small super sniper.
  12. (12) RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA). Complete D.
  13. (14) L Tyson Jost, Penticton (BCJHL). 7GP, 6-9-15 at U18s.
  14. (13) LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL):Intelligent D, mobile.
  15. (15) R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga (OHL): Brilliant scorer, fast hands.
  16. (16) R Vitalii Abramov, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). Explosive scorer. Dynamic.
  17. (17) C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): Impressive offensive skills.
  18. (18) C-L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). Scoring forward.
  19. (20) C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): Luedeke: has skating & shot of prolific scorer.
  20. (19) C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Playmaking PF, great skater. Gritty.
  21. (23) C-R Pascal Laberge, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Has two-way skills, very aggressive.
  22. (22) C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). Fine two-way forward.
  23. (24) C Tage Thompson, Connecticut Huskies (NCAA). Legit skill player.
  24. (28) G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): Quality prospect, elite when healthy.
  25. (21) L Adam Mascherin, Kitchener Rangers (OHL): Undersized scoring W. Bona fide.
  26. (27) R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). Power winger who can score.
  27. (25) C Janne Kuokkanen, Karpat (Fin Jr). Highly skilled C, good speed. Playmaker.
  28. (32) C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). He is 6.0, 180 and quality two-way forward.
  29. (29) LD Lucas Johansen, Kelowna Rockets (WHL).  A scout saw shades of Brent Seabrook.
  30. (35) C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Big skill F with smarts.
  31. (26) G Tyler Parsons, London Knights (OHL). He looks substantial based on numbers. .921
  32. (30) C Will Bitten, Flint Firebireds (OHL): Fast skater, scoring playmaker. Intriguing.
  33. (34) R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): Great hands, speed is an issue.
  34. (31) L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Keeping his value well.
  35. (37) LD Kale Clague, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Creative puck moving defender.
  36. (33) R Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Speed and skill.
  37. (36) G Filip Gustavsson, Lulea (SHL): Big G with a .910 SHL SP. Impressive.
  38. (40) L Vladimir Kuznetsov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL): Big, strong and skilled.
  39. (39) L Kyle Maksimovich, Erie Otters (OHL). Small, very skilled player.
  40. (41) L Jonathan Dahlen, Timra (Allsvenskan). Ulf’s boy, slick and brilliant.
  41. (43) LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL): Kournianos: Dineen is a high-end puck mover.
  42. (44) L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL). Punishing forward, with skill.
  43. (45) C Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): Speedy, undersized WHL scorer.
  44. (42) L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). Big W, buzz on this guy is pretty massive.
  45. (46) R Matthew Phillips, Victoria Royals (WHL). Tiny, brilliant offensive winger.
  46. (47) C Jordan Kyrou, Sarnia Sting (OHL). C with complete skill set, could be a steal.
  47. (48) LD Samuel Girard, Shawinigian (QMJHL). The new M-A Bergeron.
  48. (50) C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL). Skill C had subpar season, impressive playoffs.
  49. (52) R Yegor Korshkov, Yaroslavl (KHL). Brilliant WJs, big and skilled winger.
  50. (51) C Brett Howden, Moose Jaw (WHL). Good skater, skill center. Solid prospect.
  51. (53) C Noah Gregor, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Two-way C, aggressive.
  52. (55) L Cameron Morrison, Youngstown (USHL). Skill winger, fine skater, shooter.
  53. (49) C Adam Brooks, Regina Pats (WHL). Brilliant offensive season. Substantial talent.
  54. (54) LD Victor Mete, London Knights (OHL). Brock Otten says he is an offensive catalyst.
  55. (56) LD Dennis Cholowski, Chilliwack Chiefs (BCJHL). Smooth skater, smart blue.
  56. (57) C Dmitri Sokolov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Big F, strong, aggressive. Solid offense.
  57. (58) L Boris Katchouk, SSM (OHL). Rugged, throwback W with skill.
  58. (59) RD Frederic Allard, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Two-way D, impressive offense.
  59. (60) RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SEL). Intriguing offense, may take awhile.
  60. (62) C Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Spiked in-season.
  61. (38) L Carl Grundstrom, MoDo (SHL): Speedy scoring-winger playing Euro pro.
  62. (61) C Brandon Gignac, Shawinigan (QMJHL). Skill C, nice numbers.
  63. (63) L Simon Stransky, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Small skill winger.
  64. (65) RD Filip Hronek, HK Hradec Kralove (Cze). Smart undersized skill D.
  65. (64) C Jonathan Ang, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Quick, skilled, chaotic.
  66. (66) C Linus Lindstrom, Skelleftea (SuperElite). Swede with two-way skills.
  67. (69) RD Adam Fox, US National Team (USHL). Creative, intelligent, good skater. 5.10, 183.
  68. (67) L Matthew Boucher, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). Small, speed, skill.
  69. (68) L Mitchell Mattson, Grand Rapids (USHS). Tall forward with speed and skill. PF?
  70. (70) C Otto Somppi, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Big C, has skill.
  71. (71) L Artur Kayumov, Team Russia (MHL). Fast, skilled, great shot. One dimensional.
  72. (78) LW Sebastian Repo, Pelicans (Sm-Liiga). Nice range of skills. Underrated.
  73. (72) L Matt Filipe, Cedar Rapids (USHL). 6.02, 200 and skilled.
  74. (73) C Kasper Bjorkqvist, Blues U20 (Jr. SML). He sure scores goals a lot.
  75. (74) LD Stepan Falkovsky, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Actual giant (6.07, 224), monster shot.
  76. (80) G Veini Vehvilainen, JYP (Fin 2). 26GP, 2.04 .925. Re-entry.
  77. (75) C Henrik Borgstrom, HIFK U20 (Jr. SML). Tall thin C with skill, plus shot. Heading to U. of Denver.
  78. (76) L Givani Smith, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big, strong PF. Fine player on struggling team.
  79. (77) C Alan Lyszczarczyk, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Two-way C with PP numbers.
  80. (79) RD David Quenneville, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Small, very skilled. I like him.
  81. (81) F Brayden Burke, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Impressive playmaker, undersized.
  82. (82) R Wade Allison, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Size, skill, spiked in final CS ranking.
  83. (83) G Jeremy Helvig, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Numbers are solid.
  84. (84) C William Bower, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Undersized C.
  85. (86) C Ondrej Najman, HC Dukla Jihlava (Czech). He is posting some impressive boxcars.
  86. (87) LD Cole Candella, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Solid two-way D, injury hurt his numbers.
  87. (88) LD Jacob Moverare, HV71 (SuperElite). Two-way D, strong, mobile.
  88. (89) W Tim Gettinger, SSM (OHL). He is a 6.06 winger with speed. Itch will be scratched.
  89. (90) C Tanner Laczynski, Lincoln Stars (USHL). A solid offensive player.
  90. (91) LD Lucas Carlsson, Brynas (SHL). Two-way defenseman, eligible last year.
  91. (92) L Jakob Stukel, Calgary Hitmen (WHL). Speedy W with skill. No buzz at all.
  92. (85) G Evan Fitzpatrick, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). No. 1 ranked NA goalie by CSB.  .896
  93. (93) R Joey Anderson, US National Team (USHL). Very skilled, average size and speed.
  94. (94) LD Markus Niemelainen, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Giant defender, mobile, some offense.
  95. (95) G Daniel Marmenlind, Orebro (SuperElite). Strong numbers (.920)
  96. (NR) R Andrew Peeke, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Big, mobile D, plus shot.
  97. (96) G Zack Sawchenko, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). A .916SP is rock solid. Great glove.
  98. (97) R Jesper Bratt, AIK (Allsvenskan). Very small, very skilled. Fast buzzsaw.
  99. (98) R Egor Babenko, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Math puts him here. Small, very skilled.
  100. (NR) C Brett McKenzie, North Bay (OHL). Smart checking center.
  101. (NR) L Brandon Hagel, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Skill W, undersized.
  102. (99) LD Yegor Rykov, St. Petersburg (MHL). Two-way D, good passer, intelligent. Can skate.
  103. (NR) G Niilo Halonen, Jokerit U20 (Jr. SML). Phenomenal numbers.
  104. (100) LD Libor Hajek, Saskatoon Blades. Big (6.02, 185) Big, strong and mobile.
  105. (NR) C Aapeli Rasanen, Tappara U20 (Jr. SML). A fine prospect, good size and skill.
  106. (NR) L Roman Krikunenko, Yaroslav (MHL). Scored 32 points in 35 games.
  107. (NR) LD Sean Day, Mississauga (OHL). Mobile two-way D.
  108. (NR) LD Sebastian Aho, Skelleftea (SHL). Undersized, puck moving D.
  109. (NR) C Otto Makinen, Tappara U20 (Jr. SML). Tall C with two way skills, could spike at the draft.
  110. (NR) RW Matt Luff, Hamilton (OHL). Throwback W with size and skill.
  111. (NR) C Trent Frederic, US National Team (USHL). Two-way C with size.
  112. (NR) C Oskar Steen, Farjestads (SuperElite). Small F with skill, average offense.
  113. (NR) C Andrei Svetlakov, CSKA (KHL). Skilled, gritty forward. Might be a good target.
  114. (NR) LD David Bernhardt, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Puck mover with speed.
  115. (NR) C Cameron Hebig, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Two-way C, overager.
  116. (NR) L Mikko Juusola, Kalpa (Jr. SML). Speed winger with skill.
  117. (NR) G Joseph Woll, US National Team (USHL). .947 at U18s.
  118. (NR) RD Chase Priskie, Quinnipiac (NCAA). Puck-moving defender.
  119. (NR) G Mikhail Berdin, Team Russia (MHL). A strong (.929) season.
  120. (NR) C Cliff Pu, London Knights (OHL). 16gp, 7-5-12 in playoffs.

OILERS MOCK

With the signing of Drake Caggiula, I believe it is even more likely Peter Chiarelli drafts size. I don’t think that necessarily means moar big, but we could see some rather tall trees coming to rookie camp. I also believe we will see a lot of ‘up the middle’ purchases, although that may not apply at No. 4 overall.

That first-round pick looks like it could very well be dealt. My list favors a forward—I considered Dubois, Tkachuk and defender Juolevi—but for me it keeps coming back to that kid from the Q.

  1. No. 4 overall—LC Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). Red Line Report: His move to centre this season has taken his game to new heights. He’s got the size, hands, hockey sense, and creativity to become a true #1 centre in the NHL. Add in his dedication to getting better, mental make-up, and willingness to compete hard on every shift in all three zones, and he’s a fairly wart-proof prospect. The only minor pitfall is that he lacks first step explosion and a separation gear at the top end in his stride right now – but he is working on it diligently. Source.
  2. No. 32 overall—LD Lucas Johansen, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Kirk Luedeke,The Scouting Report: Lucas is a really good skater, four-way mobility, he can stop/start quickly, he can skate backwards very well, very agile and fluid mover with his crossovers and his lateral movement and crisp on his edges. He is going to be good in puck retrieval, effective in leading and joining the rush, advancing the puck. He has good vision and passing ability. He is not a very physical defenseman, has a tendency to be more of a stick-check, play the puck kind of defensemen. Has to get better in the way he processes the game. He has higher offensive upside and could be a player who comes off the board earlier. Source
  3. No. 62 overall—RHC-RW Jordan Kyrou, Sarnia Sting (OHL). McKeens: A playmaking forward with good speed and skating abilities. Kyrou chases pucks down and never stops moving his feet, forces turnovers via aggressive forechecks and a smart and active stick in passing lanes. Creates transition by either skating the puck up the ice, or by making quick, firm passes. Makes quick and sound decisions that trigger transition plays and offensive opportunities, reads play quickly and reacts accordingly, anticipating pass interception opportunities, finding open ice and open teammates. Willing and able to attack the net through traffic, albeit not a typical power forward at 175 lbs but carries the puck through traffic and to the goal creating scoring chances. Source
  4. No. 85 overall (Florida pick)—RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SuperElite). Swedish Poster: He’s a big kid at 6’3 and already past 200 pounds. He’s an overager, turns 19 in a few (two) days. His draft year was sort of a comeback year after missing a lot of time the previous two seasons due to a broken arm or maybe it was a leg. This year he was up to speed and delivered one hell of a season offensively nearly hitting PPG. As is usually the case with productive D the majority of the points came on the PP where his big shot from the blue line was full value. He scored at nearly a goal per game and a lot was due to his great shot. He got better and better as the season rolled along, one thing I like to look at for guys in swedish juniors is how they produce in the Superelit top 10 part of the season, what that means is after christmas the top 5 teams of the northern and southern divisions are put together into one 10 team league where they play for the playoff spots. It’s interesting because the level of play goes up and there are fewer teams to pad your stats against. In that segment of the year he scored 1.31 PPG over 16 games. For a D that’s pretty amazing. Small sample obviously but combined with his overall scoring the whole year it paints a very flattering picture offensively. Source
  5. No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)—(82) R Wade Allison, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Size, skill, spiked in final CS ranking, going from 192 to 62 in a few short months. Allison told The Hockey News he had some injuries early, but he roared through the back half of the season.
  6. No. 122 overall—G Niilo Halonen, Jokerit U20 (Jr. SML). Phenomenal numbers. At 6.02, 165, he is a tall tree in need of some water.
  7. No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)—(NR) C Cliff Pu, London Knights (OHL). 16gp, 7-5-12 in playoffs. Ryan Jessie, HockeyProspect.com: There was a point where we were kind of wondering what’s going to happen to this guy, but he’s improved leaps and bounds this season. We’ve seen him over the last six or eight weeks really use his speed well. That’s been the biggest thing. Playing on a line with Max Jones and being able to feed a goal scorer like that has made huge difference for him. Source
  8. No. 152 overall—L Hudson Elynuik, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). He is 6.05, 200 and has skill. Not a lot on him, beyond his famous (hockey) last name, but he had 44 points in 56 games and is worth of flyer.
  9. No. 182 overall—RD Justin Lemcke, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Injured most of the season, he has size (6.02, 201) and is a two-way type. Brock Otten, OHL Prospects: “An underrated player for this year’s draft. Seems to be left out of the conversation among OHL blue liners because his stats aren’t as sexy. But Lemcke was a horse for the Bulls this year, playing a ton of minutes in all situations. He’s got great size at 6’2, 200lbs and really gained the confidence to play with more of an edge as the season went on. With his terrific mobility and his increasing desire to assert himself physically, he profiles as a big time player in his own end. But his offensive skills are improving as well. He really seemed to get better in this regard as the season went on, especially when it came to using his skating ability to jump up in the play as the 3rd or 4th man in. He’s still got some work to do with his first pass and decision making with the puck, but the necessary skills are present for him to develop into a quality defender at both ends.” Source

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69 Responses to "LONG DAYS AND NIGHTS IN THE PROCUREMENT DEPARTMENT"

  1. David says:

    If I was the GM with the 15th pick and Nylander is there I would run up on stage and blurt his name out before Betman finished saying I was on the clock. Nylander like his brother will make several teams kick themselves and be in the top 5 in a redraft down the road.

  2. Rondo says:

    #32 is always a good pick given that some expected 1st rd players are still around.

    I would take Adam Fox the right handed D at #62 but he will probably be gone by then.

    http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/prospects/adam-fox/

  3. DRFNsuperstar says:

    These playoffs might be jumping Tkachuk up to 4th. It will be an interesting situation when both Gauthier and Debrincat are available at 32.

  4. Lowetide says:

    David:
    If I was the GM with the 15th pick and Nylander is there I would run up on stage and blurt his name out before Betman finished saying I was on the clock. Nylander like his brother will make several teams kick themselves and be in the top 5 in a redraft down the road.

    I am certain he goes in the top 10 overall. I just like 14 guys better.

  5. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Tage Thompson nearly a PPG player in college as an 17/18YO on a poor team. 6’2 RHC.

    There’s someone of intrigue for the oilers. Would love to see him drafted.

  6. Stelio Kontos says:

    Doesn’t seem popular anymore, but I still have tkachuk above dubois. I think there is also a chance puljujarvi is there at 4, he hasn’t had much noise. I wish one of the defensemen were a reasonable pick at 4, but I don’t think the talent is quite there this year (close but not quite). I like the sounds of dubois, but the Q still scares me. Tkachuk is older, but he is tearing up the O like a bonfire 1st (in the sequin hall range).

  7. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Tage Thompson nearly a PPG player in college as an 17/18YO on a poor team. 6’2 RHC.

    There’s someone of intrigue for the oilers. Would love to see him drafted.

    There isn’t much video on him, but he scores a nice goal here
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLw1-FXpDXo

  8. Kraz says:

    Juolevi reminds me a lot of Karl Alzner. Both put up similar numbers in their draft years and play similar style of game. Alzner is a solid top 4 dman but I bet if Washington could pick again they would rather have a Voracek or Couture. If the Oilers keep the pick taking a forward is 100% the right move.

  9. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Stelio Kontos,

    something tells me CBJ takes Dubois at 3, and that he’ll have the better career. Puljujarvi fits need rather well for edmonton, at least.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    Top 10 ES Pts Forward in the CHL [with age]:

    Pierre-Luc Dubois — 17.2 — 65
    Alex DeBrincat — 17.7 — 64
    Matthew Tkachuk — 17.8 — 63
    Vitalii Abramov — 17.4 — 63
    Adam Mascherin — 17.3 — 59
    Taylor Raddysh — 17.6 — 56
    Kyle Maksimovich — 17.5 — 50
    Maxime Fortier — 17.8 — 47
    Alexander Nylander — 17.5 — 46
    Dillon Dube — 17.2 — 46

    If I were trying to decide where I should slot a London Knight skill forward, unless I was absolutely sure about him, I’d schremp him down a few places.

  11. Clay says:

    Boy those playoff boxcars for Tkachuk are gaudy. I expect that if the Oilers take PLD ahead of him, there will be a lot of questioning going on.

  12. HarrisonNHL says:

    I don’t think we can move the 4th and still get what we want. I say keep the 4th and draft Tkachuk. He has the bloodlines and fits the mold of a Chiarelli player. We may be able to land Chychryn with the 9th in a trade with the Habs. Don’t think the extra asset is worth it personally. Take Tkachuk and call it a day.

  13. Jethro Tull says:

    HarrisonNHL: He has the bloodlines

    Drafting players based on who their dad is helped get us here.

  14. Mr DeBakey says:

    Jethro Tull: Drafting players based on who their dad is helped get us here.

    Walter Gretzky never played in the NHL.
    He was a mean Chinese Checker player in his day, tho’.

  15. GCW_69 says:

    Putting up a picture of those three intended to insight rage?

  16. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69:
    Putting up a picture of those three intended to insight rage?

    I thought it would be a good idea to post it and see if anyone noticed. 🙂

  17. Jethro Tull says:

    Mr DeBakey: Walter Gretzky never played in the NHL.
    He was a mean Chinese Checker player in his day, tho’.

    The Oilers never drafted Gretz 😉

  18. Lowetide says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: Those three literally look intense

    My own take is the guy on the far left is a helluva evaluation guy and the fellow in the middle was once a very good NHL coach. The guy on the right has to have a big brain and he did accomplish some things in Columbus.

    I don’t know if all of them should be in amateur procurement and that does present a problem.

  19. HarrisonNHL says:

    I don’t think we can move the 4th and still get what we want. I say keep the 4th and draft Tkachuk. He has the bloodlines and fits the mold of a Chiarelli player. We may be able to land Chychryn with the 9th in a trade with the Habs. Don’t think the extra asset is worth it personally. Take Tkachuk and call it a day.
    Jethro Tull,

    You are one of those guys who like to fight all the time huh. Pick other people’s opinions apart without having one of your own. If you have nothing relevant or helpful to the topic to say, then please stay quiet.

  20. Barcs says:

    I wonder what PC does on the (very) off chance that Puljujarvi is still there at 4.

    He will probably have a couple offers for a D-man ready to go. Puljujarvi is a near-perfect fit for this organization, though.

  21. HarrisonNHL says:

    Jethro Tull: Drafting players based on who their dad is helped get us here.

    And which players (kids) did we draft that we also drafted their Dads? Or which former NHL players have we drafted their kids? Pretty lame comment. Bloodlines tell me a lot about a player. Matthew Tkachuk is the real deal. Try being a helpful poster instead of a poster that jumps everyone’s opinion. Have an opinion of your own you would like to share?

  22. HarrisonNHL says:

    Barcs:
    I wonder what PC does on the (very) off chance that Puljujarvi is still there at 4.

    He will probably have a couple offers for a D-man ready to go. Puljujarvi is a near-perfect fit for this organization, though.

    He drafts Puljujarvi at that point.

  23. spoiler says:

    Out of the top 4 Dmen, I have them in this order: Chychrun, Sergachev, Bean, Juolevi.

    Juolevi’s showing at the Tournament of Small Sample Sizes doesn’t sway me, nor does his lesser production than the others on a offensively explosive Knights team convince me either. I do have N. American adjustment in his plus column though, but Sergachev gets the same nudge.

    Chychrun dealt not only with a coach that’s an offensive black hole, coming off injury/surgery retarded his production in the first half of the year.

    I think there’s a steal there, and would even be tempted to use the 4th on him (I think he’s that good) if the defensive ship wasn’t already overly laden on the port side.

    From BobbyMac:

    Chychrun was the only defenceman to be ranked in anyone’s top four prospects. One scout had him at No. 4 overall. But only four of the 10 scouts surveyed had him in their Top 10; six had him ranked 11th or lower. Worth noting, though, is that of the four scouts who ranked Chychrun in the Top 10, all four viewed him as the best defenceman in the draft.

    That sort of spread indicates to me that either some scouts saw him bad early on, or scouts are risk-averse animals and will simply point to the WJC and say, “well we couldn’t rank him above Juolevi…”

  24. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Lowetide: My own take is the guy on the far left is a helluva evaluation guy and the fellow in the middle was once a very good NHL coach. The guy on the right has to have a big brain and he did accomplish some things in Columbus.

    I don’t know if all of them should be in amateur procurement and that does present a problem.

    LT, as usual, you’re keeping it classy and fair (which I wasn’t). I can’t refute anything you just posted. However, it remains a really sore point that the 2 on the right are still employed by the team that they have hurt with some unacceptable moves.

    *EDIT Lowetide: I’d like to remove my original post. It doesn’t help move any discussion forward, and it’s just immature and mean-spirited. Sorry about that.

    **EDIT Lowetide: Thank you.

  25. spoiler says:

    Comment in moderation… well I did use italics lol.

  26. digger50 says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    These playoffs might be jumping Tkachuk up to 4th. It will be an interesting situation when both Gauthier and Debrincat are available at 32.

    I also think Debrincat will fall significantly and yes that would be an interesting opportunity at pick #32.

    Also, is anyone familiar with Sean Day? If he really falls out of the top 100 is there opportunity here?

  27. Ryan says:

    spoiler:
    Comment in moderation… well I did use italics lol.

    I see. That could have been a problem.

  28. Ducey says:

    Clay:
    Boy those playoff boxcars for Tkachuk are gaudy.I expect that if the Oilers take PLD ahead of him, there will be a lot of questioning going on.

    Until he is not playing with his super linemates…

  29. stevezie says:

    The Finnish d man looks fine, but I’d say the three D are close enough that if you want one the smart move is to trade down and just take whomever is left.

    I know the deal has to be there. But have a hard time believing no one will want to trade up and the difference between then seems so negligible to me that any offer is worth it.

  30. Snowman says:

    HarrisonNHL: And which players (kids) did we draft that we also drafted their Dads?Or which former NHL players have we drafted their kids? Pretty lame comment. Bloodlines tell me a lot about a player. Matthew Tkachuk is the real deal. Try being a helpful poster instead of a poster that jumps everyone’s opinion. Have an opinion of your own you would like to share?

    Honest to God Tkachuk is reading a lot like a tougher bigger Sam Gagner (son of NHLer Dave Gagner). Complete with extremely talented linemates and insane production.

    I like Tkachuk but I’d bet big money he’s being zoomed in London by Marner and whats his name(seriously can’t remember his other linemate’s name). He’s a good player but if you take him number 4 I’d bet you regret it.

    Dubois has done more on a worse team with worse linemates and done better at evens. He’s big and tough. He’s the right choice at this point at number 4. Everyone else at 4 is a gamble. If you take the D, it’s anyone’s guess who is going to be better. If you take Tkachuk you’ve got the question marks I just outlined briefly. If you take younger Dubois that’s the safest pick and also happens to be an extremely talented player.

  31. Alpine says:

    A great playoff run doesn’t (or shouldn’t) change the fact that PLD is stronger, faster and a better ES scorer than Tkachuk.

  32. Lowetide says:

    SpOILer: Sorry about that, don’t know why it got caught up. I have certain words that will send the comment to moderation (they are words I really hate) but of course you didn’t have them in there. So, strange. And my apologies because it was a very good post.

  33. Johnny skid says:

    Lowetide: and the fellow in the middle was once a very good NHL coach.

    not only was he a good nhl coach, he was a very good nhl player back in the day.

  34. HarrisonNHL says:

    Snowman: Honest to God Tkachuk is reading a lot like a tougher bigger Sam Gagner (son of NHLer Dave Gagner). Complete with extremely talented linemates and insane production.

    I like Tkachuk but I’d bet big money he’s being zoomed in London by Marner and whats his name(seriously can’t remember his other linemate’s name). He’s a good player but if you take him number 4 I’d bet you regret it.

    Dubois has done more on a worse team with worse linemates and done better at evens. He’s big and tough. He’s the right choice at this point at number 4. Everyone else at 4 is a gamble. If you take the D, it’s anyone’s guess who is going to be better. If you take Tkachuk you’ve got the question marks I just outlined briefly. If you take younger Dubois that’s the safest pick and also happens to be an extremely talented player.

    Totally understand your view. I am just leery of drafting anyone top 5 out of the Q.

  35. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    SpOILer: Sorry about that, don’t know why it got caught up. I have certain words that will send the comment to moderation (they are words I really hate) but of course you didn’t have them in there. So, strange. And my apologies because it was a very good post.

    No worries, bro… know you’ve been having some site grief lately.

  36. Rondo says:

    stevezie,

    If you go by the rankings it comes down to 2 D-men Juolevi and Chychrun.

    I have not seen Sergachev ranked the highest in any “legit” rankings. He probably has the highest upside with the greatest risk. I could see him going #9

  37. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    SpOILer: Sorry about that, don’t know why it got caught up. I have certain words that will send the comment to moderation (they are words I really hate) but of course you didn’t have them in there. So, strange. And my apologies because it was a very good post.

    Ha!, I fixed a typo and it went straight back into solitary. I wonder if it’s a combination of letters within a word or between two words…

  38. Stelio Kontos says:

    Lowetide:
    SpOILer: Sorry about that, don’t know why it got caught up. I have certain words that will send the comment to moderation (they are words I really hate) but of course you didn’t have them in there. So, strange. And my apologies because it was a very good post.

    Facist

  39. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Ha!, I fixed a typo and it went straight back into solitary.I wonder if it’s a combination of letters within a word or between two words…

    Ha! Found it. Retarded. You, good sir, used it correctly! 🙂 I missed it the first time because the jail word is shorter, but your follow up and my re-reading it looking closely at every word found the culprit!

  40. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    Lol! Actually, can’t even quote your own post!

  41. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide, Spoiler:
    SpOILer: Sorry about that, don’t know why it got caught up. I have certain words that will send the comment to moderation (they are words I really hate) but of course you didn’t have them in there. So, strange. And my apologies because it was a very good post.

    Psst, don’t mention the Smid! I did once but I think I got away with it.

  42. gnikkles says:

    HarrisonNHL,

    Are you serious man? Could you please answer your own question about which formwr oilers and fotmer nhlers kids the oilers have drafted beause this isn’t fair.

  43. admiralmark says:

    Lowetide: My own take is the guy on the far left is a helluva evaluation guy and the fellow in the middle was once a very good NHL coach. The guy on the right has to have a big brain and he did accomplish some things in Columbus.

    I don’t know if all of them should be in amateur procurement and that does present a problem.

    In regards to Bob Green. I think Bob Greens record of identifying players for building a major Junior team is pretty well documented. I guess we all have to start somewhere but i have to wonder if talent assessment of 15-16 yr old players for WHL duty translates automatically to projecting 18+ yr olds to one day excel at the NHL level?

    Admittedly I still can’t get over the process that occurred ending in the decision to go all in on Reinhart. Every indication seems to point to a decision made out of nepotism. And Greens comment when pressed on what he knew was all about what Reinhart brought 2 years prior. I’m not writing him off at this point. But to me this was a huge error and lacked common sense if he had not even seen him in 2 years?? Especially since in those 2 years Reinhart had struggled to gain traction. For me the jury is still out.

  44. G Money says:

    GCW_69: insight rage

    I now understand exactly what you’re saying … and it makes me SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ANGRY!!!!!

  45. Lowetide says:

    admiralmark: In regards to Bob Green. I think Bob Greens record of identifying players for building a major Junior team is pretty well documented.I guess we all have to start somewhere but i have to wonder if talent assessment of 15-16 yr old players for WHL duty translates automatically to projecting 18+ yr olds to one day excel at the NHL level?

    Admittedly I still can’t get over the process that occurred ending in the decision to go all in on Reinhart. Every indication seems to point to a decision made out of nepotism. And Greens comment when pressed on what he knew was all about what Reinhart brought 2 years prior. I’m not writing him off at this point. But to me this was a huge error and lacked common sense if he had not even seen him in 2 years?? Especially since in those 2 years Reinhart had struggled to gain traction. For me the jury is still out.

    Green and his staff did a very nice job on the 2015 draft (one year in), I would think that would be the only real way to judge his performance. The responsibility for the Reinhart trade lies with the general manager.

  46. Walter Sobchak says:

    Snowman: Honest to God Tkachuk is reading a lot like a tougher bigger Sam Gagner (son of NHLer Dave Gagner). Complete with extremely talented linemates and insane production.

    I like Tkachuk but I’d bet big money he’s being zoomed in London by Marner and whats his name(seriously can’t remember his other linemate’s name). He’s a good player but if you take him number 4 I’d bet you regret it.

    Dubois has done more on a worse team with worse linemates and done better at evens. He’s big and tough. He’s the right choice at this point at number 4. Everyone else at 4 is a gamble. If you take the D, it’s anyone’s guess who is going to be better. If you take Tkachuk you’ve got the question marks I just outlined briefly. If you take younger Dubois that’s the safest pick and also happens to be an extremely talented player.

    Never watched the WJC then did ya, I’m not buying the TOI that lowetide so desperately needs to see in order for a player to be considered elite even though every scout has him ahead. He took a regular shift and didn’t play extra time. Eye’s tell you he’s for real, real hockey men tell you he’s for real.
    He co-lead his team in points at the WJC and that was without Marner.

    Age is a concern, I’ll buy that argument.
    Being a LW when PLD is a centre I’ll buy that too.
    But Tkachuk is the better hockey player and it wont be close in 3 years.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Walter Sobchakreal hockey men tell you he’s for real.

    I have a great deal of respect for hockey scouts. Time on ice is an issue, ignore it at your peril. I think both Dubois and Tkachuk will be wingers as NHL players, and have no quarrel with either man being chosen by the Oilers.

  48. HarrisonNHL says:

    Snowman: Honest to God Tkachuk is reading a lot like a tougher bigger Sam Gagner (son of NHLer Dave Gagner). Complete with extremely talented linemates and insane production.

    I like Tkachuk but I’d bet big money he’s being zoomed in London by Marner and whats his name(seriously can’t remember his other linemate’s name). He’s a good player but if you take him number 4 I’d bet you regret it.

    Dubois has done more on a worse team with worse linemates and done better at evens. He’s big and tough. He’s the right choice at this point at number 4. Everyone else at 4 is a gamble. If you take the D, it’s anyone’s guess who is going to be better. If you take Tkachuk you’ve got the question marks I just outlined briefly. If you take younger Dubois that’s the safest pick and also happens to be an extremely talented player.

    Totally understand your view. I am just leery of drafting anyone top 5 out of the Q.

    gnikkles:
    HarrisonNHL,

    Are you serious man? Could you please answer your own question about which formwr oilers and fotmer nhlers kids the oilers have drafted beause this isn’t fair.

    You made the comment. Why should I research to prove your point.

  49. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: Green and his staff did a very nice job on the 2015 draft (one year in), I would think that would be the only real way to judge his performance. The responsibility for the Reinhart trade lies with the general manager.

    We should neither praise nor tear down said manager, as the price was paid full, but not an overpayment.

    Plus the move was made before a sekera signing, and before a Davidson “who the hell is this kid” moment. Right play for someone starting in an organization that needs developed dmen and only really knows that his team is severely lacking on actual defensive prospects.

    But you knew that 😊

  50. stevezie says:

    Rondo,

    With the utmost respect to our host, I’m sure 😉

    I’m fine with your rankings too.

    I think it’s safe to say that you can get something great until at least #7, and considering someone is almost certain to go off the board I’ll bet #9 or even 10. Considering the Oilers desperate need of depth I’d love to see them do what the Isles did when they traded down twice and took Josh Bailey at number 9.

    Now, eventually this didn’t really work out for them. It amounted to trading Luke Schenn and Colin Wilson for Josh Bailey, Shawn Lalonde, Mat Clark, and Aaron Ness. However, that Bailey pick could have easily been Tyler Myers, and then this looked a lot different.

    A better way to look at this is they traded the #5 for the #9, #40, and a #68, and a #37 next year. That’s pretty palatable to me.

    By this LT has us passing on Dubois for Chychrun and McKenzie has us giving up ‘Chuk for ‘Chrun, and given our needs I think a case could be made for doing this anyway (I wouldn’t make it, but we both know it’s out there).

  51. stevezie says:

    stush18,

    I’m not going to get into the whole thing again, just going to say that- while your caveats certainly explain it- there’s still a significant bunch of rational and handsome people whoclenched their fists in rage the second the deal was announced.

    That it looks worse today than it did then just speaks to our handsome prescience.

  52. Mr DeBakey says:

    stush18: Plus the move was made before a sekera signing, and before a Davidson “who the hell is this kid” moment. Right play for someone starting in an organization that needs developed dmen and only really knows that his team is severely lacking on actual defensive prospects.

    Martin Marincin

  53. Lowetide says:

    stevezie:
    stush18,

    I’m not going to get into the whole thing again, just going to say that- while your caveats certainly explain it- there’s still a significant bunch of rational and handsome people whoclenched their fists in rage the second the deal was announced.

    That it looks worse today than it did then just speaks to our handsome prescience.

    It was an overpay, said it at the time. I do understand what the GM was trying to do, and now that it is done am hoping Reinhart emerges as a useful NHL player. Suspect everyone who has an opinion on this is unlikely to be swayed.

  54. Mr DeBakey says:

    Was out to the Edmonton Coliseum for probably the last time tonight.

    Who Are You
    The Seeker
    The Kids Are Alright
    I Can See For Miles
    My Generation
    Pictures Of Lilly
    Squeezebox
    Behind Blue Eyes
    Bargain
    Join Together
    You Better You Bet
    Some stuff from Quadrophenia & Tommy
    Baba O ‘ Reilly
    Won’t Get Fooled Again

  55. stush18 says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    For Eric gryba. Depth for depth basically.
    Lowetide,

    I keep forgetting who’s posted originally (forgive me) but using cullens(?) numbers for the picks we gave up, we paid in full, but did not overpay. Everyone was fine trying to move that for Hamilton, and I did not hear of any other dman being available for picks.

    And you’re likely right. I remain sturdy because of the love for nurse and hate for Reinhart. I still have friends who get excited about nurse because he “hits hard”. Nvm the errant passes or missed assignments. While those things are understandable because he’s a rookie, Reinhart outplaying him the last half of the year while getting very little recognition irked me.

    But I’m rambling. Just no I will always be there to defend him, like an Internet batman.

    Lol goodnight all

  56. spoiler says:

    HarrisonNHL: Totally understand your view. I am just leery of drafting anyone top 5 out of the Q.

    Is top 6 okay? Top 7? Where is the line drawn and why? You wouldn’t have drafted MacKinnon in the top 5?

  57. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    C’mon now Spoils. The QMJHL has a long proud history of high/1OV draft busts. Not just Mackinnon, but guys like Crosby, Lemieux, and Lecavalier.

    If only those teams had been smart and realized what a risk the QMJHL is, and waited. Bet they feel like fools.

    Note: this highly sarcastic remark is intended to highlight the utter silliness of unsupported statements/rules like ‘avoid drafting high from the Q’.

    We have a plethora of data and the tools to analyze it to minimize the risk of draft busts, and one of the things we can safely conclude is that the league doesn’t actually matter. It’s the results within that league, not to mention the myriad of contextual factors, that count.

    Or, you know, go ahead and pass on that Crosby kid.

  58. spoiler says:

    G Money,

    Precisely.

    Stelio Kontos: Facist

    I too am against non-symmetrical faces.
    😉

    We’re trading the pick, people. I’d bet Woodguy’s liquor cabinet on it. Or even the contents thereof.

  59. blainer says:

    spoiler:
    G Money,

    Precisely.

    I too am against non-symmetrical faces.

    We’re trading the pick, people. I’d bet Woodguy’s liquor cabinet on it. Or even the contents thereof.

    Yup agreed.. woodguy will not be happy with losing his scotch.

    Suspect that 4th goes for Hamonic.

    I would be happier though with a trade of Pou and Yak for Vatenen and sign Demers. Then sign a UFA winger or center.

    Keep the pick and draft PLD.

  60. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: I thought it would be a good idea to post it and see if anyone noticed.

    Definitely noticed!

  61. GCW_69 says:

    G Money: I now understand exactly what you’re saying … and it makes me SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ANGRY!!!!!

    You mean like I should have used incite instead of insight? LOL. It’s a comment on a blog. Proper use of the English language is optional and often left to the whims of autocorrect.

  62. Gret99zky says:

    G Money:
    spoiler,

    C’mon now Spoils.The QMJHL has a long proud history of high/1OV draft busts.Not just Mackinnon, but guys like Crosby, Lemieux, and Lecavalier.

    We have a plethora of data and the tools to analyze it to minimize the risk of draft busts, and one of the things we can safely conclude is that the league doesn’t actually matter.It’s the results within that league, not to mention the myriad of contextual factors, that count.

    Looking forward to the convincing data analysis between the 4 aforementioned and Pierre-Luc Dubois.

    #givehimtheC

  63. godot10 says:

    HarrisonNHL: Totally understand your view. I am just leery of drafting anyone top 5 out of the Q.

    Except all the recent top 5 busts or underperformers have come out of the OHL, not out of the Q.

    Yakupov, Gudbranson, Dal Colle, Bogosian, Ryan Strome, Benoit Pouliot,

    Top 5 busts or underperformers out of the West…Hickey, Reinhart, Luke Schenn, Cam Barker

    Hasn’t been a bust in the top 5 out of the Q for two decades.

  64. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Mr DeBakey,

    For Eric gryba. Depth for depth basically.
    Lowetide,

    I keep forgetting who’s posted originally (forgive me) but using cullens(?) numbers for the picks we gave up, we paid in full, but did not overpay. Everyone was fine trying to move that for Hamilton, and I did not hear of any other dman being available for picks.

    And you’re likely right. I remain sturdy because of the love for nurse and hate for Reinhart. I still have friends who get excited about nurse because he “hits hard”. Nvm the errant passes or missed assignments. While those things are understandable because he’s a rookie, Reinhart outplaying him the last half of the year while getting very little recognition irked me.

    But I’m rambling. Just no I will always be there to defend him, like an Internet batman.

    Lol goodnight all

    Haha. Thats cool.

  65. russ99 says:

    If we keep that #4 pick, I’ll be disappointed. If we move Nurse in a deal for a D and a lower pick, and use that to pick a lesser D prospect, I’ll get the tar and feathers ready.

    The key axiom in the “tank until the new arena” theorem is that Katz needs playoff dates in the new building to maximize profit. So there should be pressure from above that decisions to win at the NHL level has utmost importance.

    So despite our semi-barren system, the NHL roster takes precedence, at least this year.

  66. G Money says:

    GCW_69,

    Indeed, but when that process produces a result that is unintentionally meaningful, it deserves to be highlighted, does it not?

    Gret99zky,

    That’s why we read LT’s draft articles!

    On a less facetious note, I haven’t worked much with draft data, and what I have worked with indicates clearly there is a massive random element in drafting that comes from dealing with the combination of trying to predict the ability of young kids to develop an entirely new level of skill, while also having to account for their completely unpredictable response to each teams development regime.

    [In other words, you could get absolutely everything right with respect to assessing a draft pick, then have that pick succeed or fail against all the odds, because the team did a stellar or abysmal job of managing that individual]

    For that reason, I rarely posit much for or against any particular draftee, and read with much amusement when someone declares with confidence that

    ‘so and so is going to be scoring a zillion goals on McDavid’s wing’ [or … they may not make the NHL]

    ‘no way would I take player x over player y because of this or that razor thin and possibly meaningless difference in their Jr numbers’ [or both might be busts, or stars, and/or surpassed by far by a much lower ranked and drafted player]

    ‘that player is destined for success/failure because of some facetious and misguided comparison to some previous draft pick at the same position’ [whether that happens or not will have NOTHING to do with that previously drafted player – unless that previously drafted player is a linemate]

    In this thread we’ve seen head-smacking rationale for/against players because of which league they play in and because ‘hockey men said so’.

    Really strange the amount of passion, and the amount of certainty allocated to this discussion. The only guy that seems to have it ‘right’ is LT, who grinds through mounds of data and comes up with a ranking, all while acknowledging that other peoples equally valid rankings may be completely different, AND that reality may not unfold anywhere close to how his careful analysis indicates it might.

    Such is life.

    Such is the draft.

  67. Fog of Warts says:

    Oh, great.

    I had something I wanted to say, and the first four topic sentences that came to mind all had one of the dirty dozen used “the right way” buried somewhere inside. Each and every darn one of them. Clearly my subconscious mind has accepted the mission to combine all twelve into an otherwise innocuous paragraph. While one contentious candidate can clearly be discarded as not having much scope for fair use—though perhaps some peculiar impact by a misshapen asteroid leaves a sea-shaped crater behind …—the other one that doesn’t begin with ‘h’ can’t be so readily discarded (another sure sign of subconscious shenanigans: double negatives are trending already).

    ———

    I was just thinking that my past contributions might be associated with the arena thesis.

    For my part in the arena thesis, it was always a double negative: you’re a fool if you discard out of hand that Katz might actually care more about the success of his arena project than having successful hockey season x < 2017–2018, this being the set of hockey seasons somewhat less entwined with the success of his arena project, with “x” representing the foolish personal decision to buy season tickets in said year.

    This is standard strawman operating procedure. Human sees shiny “hope”. Human buys tickets. Sad spectacle disappoints and embarrasses. Management: “Sorry, ‘hope’ is still in the mail. We’ll try even harder next year.” Anger. Heads must roll. Management is incompetent, and I can prove it. “Look, here’s an obvious decision where we were likely to win an extra game this year. Any dummy could have improved our record from 62 to 64 points. Therefore current management is inferior to any dummy. Heads must roll. QED.”

    But the fact of the matter is that most decisions are the blend product of a complex and multifaceted decision horizon. And, no, it’s not like “any dummy” ever gets this right. Want to see a proud, competent man take a huge fall? Put him (or her) into a fish-bowl freak-show with structural incentive misalignments carved into a 1000 pages of quench-hardened igneous magma (also known as the CBA), subject to the interpretive whims of a little man behind the curtain who famously invented the Bettman point.

    All through the arena negotiation Katz got publicly raked over the coals over various stupid things. Anyone else remember what that feels like? Anyone else graduate from Puberty 101 with a PHD (purple heart diploma)? This kind of thing kind of eats at your mind.

    If Katz’s on-ice product flops (yet again) in his new shiny facility, there are people out there with long memories and poison pens who won’t hesitate to vent their spleens. With those dark clouds looming large in his mind, is it not possible to consider that ten games of Brad Hunt to start a season didn’t bend his personal stress needle more than it already was?

    In “heads must roll” thesis, ten games of Brad Hunt to start a season is more salient to the discussion of organizational competence than the quarter or half billion dollars Katz squeezed out of pubic coffers.

    In a seven-gamer between the HMR salience microscope and the arena thesis glowing coal bed, I’ll take the arena thesis in five. I’ve only ever advocated the arena thesis as valid enough to make 80% of the anger-strawman salience microscopes look silly.

    Compared to 9/11, I’ve not climbed so far up the walls of this particular conspiracy theory that I couldn’t survive the jump. It was never about the arena in the first place.

    In a salience war between Brad Hunt and Katz’s new arena, you lose. (Ouch! Hope I didn’t just give myself a high ankle sprain with that daring assertion.)

    It’s when Woodguy does his homework and triangulates the full litany of woe on the defensive side of the roster that we begin to clearly see the chalk outlines of competence departed. Moreover, for the defense that MacT actually assembled, Eakins was clearly the wrong coach (converse: had MacT not been incompetent in this vital task, his coaching selection might have been a short term setback rather than catastrophic).

    Argument from Brad Hunt: the man can’t be trusted to do anything right.

    Argument from careful Woodguy triangulation: the man can’t be trusted to touch defense.

    Which of those two men might possibly still have a (narrow) job in a competent organization?

    Argument from Brad Hunt < argument from arena < argument from careful triangulation. See spot run. See arena wedge.

    Also, don't think I didn't notice how our shiny new experienced coach deployed Jultz pretty much exactly the same way as our grating, inexperienced, unproven coach (moreover, the gold-standard new guy enjoying roughly the same success on the power play after being gifted with CMD—yet again, corroboration that it’s the blueline as a group).

  68. Fog of Warts says:

    My subconscious mind was so burdened with the dirty dozen that it only just got around to informing me what I just wrote about.

    Last night I read a chapter of Clear and Simple as the Truth in which it relates that classic style is not X, Y, or Z.

    From the treatment of “classic style is not practical style” there is this passage:

    Most writing in schools and colleges is a perversion of practical style: the student pretends that he [it’s an old book †] is writing a memorandum. He [grey hair] pretends that he [pot belly] knows more than the reader, that the reader needs this information, and that his [failing memory] job is to impart that information in a way that is easy for the reader to parse [‡]. This pretense is supposed to be practice for the real thing. Actually, the reader (the teacher) probably knows much more about the subject than the writer; the reader (the teacher) has no need whatever for the information; and the job of the writer is to cover himself [weak knees] from attack by his [quadruple bypass] superior (the teacher). The actual scene interferes so much with the fantasy scene that the result is almost inevitably compromised, if not fraudulent.

    I understand why a Brad Hunt October boils the oceans. This is as it should be. It’s not until we begin to take cognitive short cuts from boiling oceans (us) to Boiling Ocean Disorder (them) that the scene becomes fraudulent.

    ———

    † My copy in hand actually has a card pocket, last legibly stamped “Oct 15 1996” in sloppy blue ink with the “5” not quite fully rotated into position; this brings back memories of my early childhood (and the first Canada–Russia hockey series) like nothing else could.

    ———

    ‡ overrated

  69. GCW_69 says:

    G Money: Indeed, but when that process produces a result that is unintentionally meaningful, it deserves to be highlighted, does it not?

    Yup

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