GRIFFIN VERSUS THE VOLCANO

The last time Edmonton made a trade involving a first-round selection, Mathew Barzal was heading to the Islanders. It looks like trading down (or out) may be the call again this summer, based on what we are hearing. I think we can guess a lot of what is going on in Peter Chiarelli’s office these days based on what he said yesterday.

  • Chiarelli on trading out at No. 4: “Yeah. I look at us like we’re in the top of the next group. I’ve had four or five teams call me already, and I’ve made it know that we’ll look to trade down if the right deal is there in the context of just a pure trade-down, or a trade down with kind of giving up the value on the draft numbers, the draft rankings, in getting a draft pick and an NHL player. We went through a lot of scenarios at the amateur meetings. That’s when you’re most creative. Now, executing these things is often hard, but there’s some real stuff that could come across our desk in the next few weeks. So looking at a lot of stuff. But again, 4 to 9 – pretty good players.” Source (Original interview with Bob Stauffer)

Let’s start by listing the Bob McKenzie No. 4 to No. 9:

  • No. 4: L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL)
  • No. 5: L Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL)
  • No. 6: R Alex Nylander, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
  • No. 7: LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL)
  • No. 8: LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
  • No. 9: LD Jacob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

I have suggested that the Oilers would not have a high degree of interest in Nylander (your mileage may vary), but the others listed here are basically in Edmonton’s wheelhouse. I believe both forwards will be wingers, and all three defenders are LDs so PC will need to fix the handedness by other means.

POSSIBLE TRADE OPTIONS BASED ON DRAFT NUMBER

  • No. 5 Vancouver Canucks. I doubt there is much point in dealing up for one player, and their GM has already named Tkachuk and Dubois as his options. I think we should consider the Canucks at this spot a lock.
  • No. 6 Calgary Flames. It isn’t as crazy as you think, but the Flames have a player who could offer Edmonton some shelter (Dougie Hamilton) but Calgary is (I assume) looking for a goalie and fairly satisfied with their young blue.
  • No. 7 Arizona Coyotes. Chiarelli mentioned dealing down for picks, Phoenix has this pick and No. 22 overall. Would you deal Dubois or Tkachuk for Juolevi and Nathan Bastian? The value probably works, we have no way to know what the boy King is thinking in the desert.
  • No. 8 overall Buffalo Sabres. Edmonton could grab this pick and No. 38, and maybe Tim Murray likes someone enough to make the move. Mark Pysyk is also interesting but one wonders if that would close the gap for Peter Chiarelli.
  • No. 9 overall Montreal Canadiens. The final spot for the Oilers, my guess is that (if Nylander is not on their top 9 list) it is giant center Logan Brown. Would Montreal give up No. 9 and No. 39?
  • No. 14 Boston Bruins. Boston has selections at No. 14, No. 20, No. 51 and they also have that silly Chiarelli pick. Perhaps the Oilers and Bruins can make a deal, although trading down to No. 14 means taking (possibly) RD Charlie McAvoy and (at No. 20) Alex DeBrincat.

I think the Oilers got rather unlucky with trade options when the lottery balls stopped moving. If Edmonton was slotted No. 3 and Columbus No. 5 (as an example), that would give the team some leverage. Now? Not an option, although I think David Savard might still be a target.

MCDAVID’S WINGMAN

  • Peter Chiarelli on Tkachuk: “I’ve seen Tkachuk play maybe 10 or 11 times. He’s just a cerebral player and a gritty heavy player. He’s so smart and he’s always around the net. He would be a really good fit.” Source
  • Peter Chiarelli on Dubois: “Pierre same thing, big and strong. He’s your prototypical power forward that can play centre and wing. He can really shoot the puck.” Source

In listening to Peter (and Bob) I think Chiarelli likes Tkachuk a lot—but does he like him enough to draft him at No. 4 overall? If he does, Tkachuk could be that impact winger who will play a decade or more with Connor McDavid. It has to be tempting on some level.

russell

IF YOU LOVE ME, YOU LOVE ME WITH MONEY

The numbers are not that far apart, to be honest. Caggiula got most of the Anton Slepyshev deal (AS has $600,000 in bonus opportunities to the $425,000 listed for Caggiula). Russell’s deal is the Dillon Simpson contract. If we wanted to put it simply, Caggiula got third-round money, Russell fourth-round dollars. Not bad, not bad, hope they do well.

GRIFFIN VERSUS THE VOLCANO

I read an item by Kris Hansen right at the end of the season, he took at look at GR after year one of the trade. Every once in awhile this trade will come up, I will express my views, and the comments proceed to beat me about the head because of it. No matter that I don’t aggressively post these views, don’t mock the player, don’t in any way attempt to sway other views. In this way, Griffin Reinhart has taken the lightning rod honors among current Oilers. One imagines his reign will be longer than Rob Schremp’s and shorter than Shawn Horcoff’s but the future is not known to us.

  • Hansen: The price was a dear one to pay for a defenceman who is not fully developed. I know I am not alone in wanting an established defenceman for a first round draft pick. What’s done is done. Reinhart will be linked (unfairly I think) to Mathew Barzal. There’s still lots of time for Reinhart: he is only 22 but there are concerns especially when compared to his other draft class members such as Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Rielly, Jacob Trouba, Mathew Dumba and Olli Maata who have all been NHL regulars at some point now. Source

Kris puts things in perspective nicely, and it is difficult to argue that Reinhart—even if we exclude his bonus money for next season—is an obvious choice for the NHL roster for 2016-17. It’s also true that his trade value is such that using him as a key portion of any trade is impossible. What can Peter Chiarelli do with his very expensive bauble? I think the answer is this: The same as last year. Reinhart spent 30 games in the AHL, 29 in the NHL and burned off a bunch of his cap bonus money.

In that article, Kris quotes our own WheatnOil in regard to something positive about GR:

  • WheatnOil: Fayne and Reinhart have not been in Sekera territory in the small sample of games I’ve measured, but they do show their strength in preventing zone entries. When combined with the Zone Exit data, Reinhart looks like a fairly balanced defenceman… preventing zone entries at Fayne levels but with the ability to move the puck. Source

We are probably looking at a third-pairing lefty here, beginning in 2017-18. He will cost about $1.2 million and all of Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson look like they can bat higher in the lineup—and that has to be a tough pill for PC to swallow.

WAR ON ICE D SLEDGE

That said, he is durable, can play defense, and the item from WeatnOil dovetails with what we saw out of him in junior. If he is a trade piece, suspect it will be at another time, as his value cannot be high after what was a developmental season. As an aside, I generally felt Nurse and Reinhart were about the same on the defensive spectrum this season—but the graph suggests Nurse faced tougher opposition and more severe zone starts in the sorties that began from a full stop.

Reinhart has value, but probably more value for Edmonton than he would in trade. For me, that means another lefty (among Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Nurse) could be in play—depending on injury situations for Klefbom and Davidson.

NHL COMBINE LIST

Once the NHL releases their list of combine invites, we have a general idea about where their member teams are fishing. As an example, here is the Oilers draft list since 2010 funneled through the combine for each year:

2008 Oilers draft

  • Jordan Eberle selected #22 overall, ranked #29 (attended combine)
  • Johan Motin selected #103 overall, unranked (attended combine)

2009 Oilers draft

  • Magnus Paajarvi selected #10 overall, ranked #10 (attended combine)
  • Anton Lander selected #40 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Toni Rajala selected #101 overall, ranked #50 (attended combine)
  • Olivier Roy selected #133 overall, ranked HM (attended combine)

2010 Oilers draft

  • Taylor Hall selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Pitlick selected #31, ranked #25 (attended combine)
  • Martin Marincin selected #46, ranked #71 (attended combine)
  • Curtis Hamilton selected #48, ranked 57 (attended combine)
  • Ryan Martindale selected #61, ranked 58 (attended combine)
  • Tyler Bunz selected #121, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Brandon Davidson selected #162, not ranked (attended combine)

2011 Oilers draft

  • Ryan Nugent Hopkins selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Oscar Klefbom selected #19, ranked #21 (attended combine)
  • David Musil selected #31, ranked #41 (attended combine)
  • Samu Perhonen selected #62, ranked #51 (attended combine)
  • Travis Ewanyk selected #74, ranked HM (attended combine)
  • Tobias Rieder selected #114, unranked (attended combine)

2012 Oilers draft

  • Nail Yakupov selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Mitchell Moroz selected #32, ranked #56 (attended combine)
  • Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked (attended combine)
  • Daniil Zharkov selected #91, ranked #47 (attended combine)

2013 Oilers draft

  • Darnell Nurse selected #7, ranked #9 (attended combine)
  • Marco Roy selected #56, ranked #59 (attended combine)
  • Bogdan Yakimov selected #83 not ranked (attended combine)
  • Jackson Houck, selected #94 not ranked (attended combine)

2014 Oilers draft

  • Leon Draisaitl selected #3, ranked #4 (attended combine)

2015 Oilers draft

  • Connor McDavid selected #1, ranked #1 (attended combine)
  • Caleb Jones selected #117, ranked #130 ISS (attended combine)
  • Ethan Bear selected #124, ranked #78 ISS (attended combine)
  • John Marino selected #154, ranked #95 ISS (attended combine)

As you can see, with the exception of 2014 (what in HELL were they thinking?) we have a trend. It is also interesting to see a name like Caleb Jones, who would have been invited by one or more NHL clubs (the NHL invites the top 100 or so, and teams submit a list of extras they would like to see). I looked at some curios last June and found Jones stood out.

THIS SEASON’S CURIOS

  • R William Knierim, Dubuque Fightings Saints (USHL). A huge winger (6.03, 198) who scored a little (54, 14-13-27, NHLE is just 11) and is ranked No. 149 CS NA. Someone likes him, might be the Oilers.
  • LD Josh Mahura, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Young man was not on the Central rankings, he missed 70 games during the regular season due to injury.
  • C Brett Murray, Carleton Place Canadians (CCHL). He is inside the top 100 for CS NA, but if I don’t mention him here it will not happen before the draft. A tall drink of water playing in a somewhat obscure league, on his way to Penn State next year.
  • R Eetu Tuulola, HPK (Sm-Liiga). I ranked him in my look at Finland, but he isn’t among the top 100 based on rank (No. 19 Euro). Someone likes him, he is 6.03, 225. Could be a target for the Oilers.
  • List is here.

hennesseyj

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the show, 10 this morning on TSN1260:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. We will discuss recent moves by the Oilers, including the two new college hires and Peter Chiarelli’s verbal surrounding No. 4 overall.
  • Tyler Karwandy, Rider Prophet. It is CFL draft day, Tyler runs the best team blog in the league and his mock has the Roughriders going for an Olineman. We will chat about it.
  • Brian King, NonStopSportsPicks. The Eskimos are pretty well covered in roster Canadians, so I wonder what they will do at the draft? Brian has the answers.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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127 Responses to "GRIFFIN VERSUS THE VOLCANO"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    If I were in Chia’s shoes I’d explore the #4 to the Yotes for #7 and #20.

    I think 4 to 9 is mostly a crapshoot. I believe PLD is the best forward available but I’m not sure how much better he is than the D options. I also don’t know that it matters which Dman of the top 3 is picked because, realistically, I don’t believe anyone can predict which one is better with any degree of certainty at this point. They all look good. For that reason the #20 is an attractive bonus that could net a quality Euro or a guy like Fabbro.

    I also think trading #7 could net us a real NHL player of quality (Hamonic) almost to the same degree as #4 could, and it would leave us with a first round pick to stock the cupboard.

    I also think there is a possibility that Arizona will do this to acquire MT, who may not last to #7, especially considering his playoff numbers.

  2. smellyglove says:

    LT on Reinhart: “We are probably looking at a third-pairing lefty here, beginning in 2017-18.”

    The 16 and 33 were dear, dear prices to pay for what you’re projecting to be a 3rd pairing defenseman. That’s effectively two first round picks.

    But you’re only getting part of the story here, LT. It’s bad enough that the Oilers traded 16+33 for a D of his track record and potential, it’s ‘who’ he is.

    We’re coming off a decade of the OBC and “saw the Oil King player” good. When you’re only scouting 1/100th of the pool, you’re going to miss out, big time. The Oilers penchant to pursue ‘local’ players at all costs has, is, and will cost them big time. Perhaps what’s worse: this was Chia’s call, which means that he has been afflicted with the disease; someone else made the call, someone else has undue influence, or he’s listening to the wrong people.

    I want my team to be scouring the ends of the earth for undervalued and/or high potential players, not giving up gold for mediocre home city junior team players.

  3. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: Boy is Chia so much better at telling nothing to the press vs. McT who would telegraph exactly who we wanted gone, what he was thinking etc…

    – It will be an interesting trade-season. Hope we don’t go all-in for the 2 RD @ 5mmx6.

    – How about 1RHD, then say a 2-year expiring contract. David Savard would be really nice.

    – Savard and say Chara (he’s only got 2 years remaining now).

    – D woes can’t be all fixed in one off-season (unless we pull a Snow D off-season).

    – Get one nice RHD, one short-term vet D who can still play, hope Klef Davidson stay healthy and progress, let Nurse Griff marinate, make another trade at next deadline when we are trending

    – Trying to solve it all now, I think you are in competition for so few of the pieces that so many teams need, and everyone is a buyer. Next trade deadline, there will be more sellers.

  4. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    smellyglove,

    I don’t see why we are suggesting his upside is third pairing lefty.

    He’s the kind of player that develops by sundial.

    He’s got lots of tools.

    He got better as the year went on.

    He’s 2.5 years younger than Brandon Davidson, who is just now emerging as a 3rd pairing guy with upside into the top 4.

    He’s still younger than Jeff Petry was when he made his NHL debut.

    He’s only 13 months older than Darnell Nurse, whom most people agree has lots of upside even if he isn’t there yet.

    It was a steep price. I didn’t love it at the time, admittedly.

    But it’s not the end of the world, and the book hasn’t been written on the kid. Far from it.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Last time for this particular…..

    *** SPAM ***

    New Because Oilers:

    Oiler RHD Search #2 – Tyson Barrie

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/05/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-2-tyson.html?m=1 … …

    *** END SPAM ***

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – Great post WG! I’ve said it before: I worry that we go out and get 2 RD @ 5.5MMx6, and then we are stuck. So a Barrie/Demers for instance, lots of money. Plus really, how “hard” is a Barrie to play against?

    – I know he moves puck well, but to me he’s replacing Petry, which is great, but we still need D who are difficult to play against, and of course are effective at D’ering

  7. Woodguy says:

    Reinhart has value, but probably more value for Edmonton than he would in trade. For me, that means another lefty (among Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Nurse) could be in play—depending on injury situations for Klefbom and Davidson.

    BUF has another Reinhart and a need on LHD.

    Mark Pysyk has been their 3RD and occasional HS.

    A straight up swap makes sense for both teams.

    Pysyk’s fancies are good, but given that he’s 3rd pair you can’t read too much into them, but I like him.

    Former Oil King first rounder for Former Oil King first rounder

    Has a nice completeness to it.

    Pysyk was the first Oil King that Green drafted as GM btw……

  8. Raider Jesse says:

    Damn Spammer! ^^

    My bold prediction is we won’t have to talk about GR 1 year from now as he’ll be the Las Vegas expansion draft selection from the Oilers.

  9. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Woodguy,

    – Great post WG!I’ve said it before: I worry that we go out and get 2 RD @ 5.5MMx6, and then we are stuck.So a Barrie/Demers for instance, lots of money.Plus really, how “hard” is a Barrie to play against?

    – I know he moves puck well, but to me he’s replacing Petry, which is great, but we still need D who are difficult to play against, and of course are effective at D’ering

    Thanks Kinger!! (haha)

    I like Hamonic or Demers for the 1 spot and agree that Barrie isn’t that guy and *probably* cost too much on the cap to have as 2RD regardless of his points.

    I don’t worry too much about Demers vs big players.

    He played in the Pacific and now in the Central.

    He’s been playing against big players his whole career and his results are very good and I think he could handle 1RD especially with the likes of Klef.

    Staples recently did a mini-scouting report on Demers and it dovetailed with my findings: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-should-take-a-close-lose-at-unrestricted-free-agent-jason-demers

  10. Primetime says:

    HOCKEY BUDDHA says:
    May 9, 2016 at 11:52 am

    Schultz is playing quite a few minutes in Pittsburgh these days. Good for him.
    —————————————————————————————————————————————

    Speaking of “failed” Oiler defense acquisitions….

    Saw this in yesterdays thread. Not sure that he is playing “quite a few minutes”

    In Pittsburgh’s 10 playoff games to date:

    Healthy scratch in 7!
    lowest D ice time in 2 of 3 GP (including a whopping 5:52 in one game including 1:30 on PP)
    17:56 in the other game, which was the Letang suspension…(all 4 bottom D averaged 17 min)
    No points

    It’s almost like the Pens don’t trust him on the ice! Don’t wish poorly on anyone but I think Chia was lucky to get anything for him at all at the deadline, seeing as though he is not even being used as a playoff rental…

  11. FTO says:

    So is there any reason why we can’t try any of our LD at RD? Davidson seems like he’d be good at it.

  12. russ99 says:

    Primetime:
    HOCKEY BUDDHA says:
    May 9, 2016 at 11:52 am

    Schultz is playing quite a few minutes in Pittsburgh these days. Good for him.
    —————————————————————————————————————————————

    Speaking of “failed” Oiler defense acquisitions….

    Saw this in yesterdays thread.Not sure that he is playing “quite a few minutes”

    In Pittsburgh’s 10 playoff games to date:

    Healthy scratch in 7!
    lowest D ice time in 2 of 3 GP (including a whopping 5:52 in one game including 1:30 on PP)
    17:56 in the other game, which was the Letang suspension…(all 4 bottom D averaged 17 min)
    No points

    It’s almost like the Pens don’t trust him on the ice!Don’t wish poorly on anyone but I think Chia was lucky to get anything for him at all at the deadline, seeing as though he is not even being used as a playoff rental…

    He had 17:56 and 11:51 ice time with 3 hits, 4 blocks and no goals allowed the last two games with Letang and Maatta out, so that whole Schultz still sucks and the Pens don’t trust him narrative doesn’t fly.

    The ill will that some fans have for this kid goes way beyond Poti…

    The whole Reinhard thing makes me wonder what the timeline is for MacT and Howson being let go is. After the draft??

  13. OTO says:

    The hockey god’s will mightily rejoice, when Kessel and Shultz hoist the cup this year.

  14. Ducey says:

    I doubt the new wonderboy in ARZ wants to trade two firsts for #4. He was hired to find hidden gems with his fancy stats. He will want more picks, not less. And he won’t want to take that kind of risk in his first draft.

    His hiring reminds me of JP Riccardi with the Blue Jays. Wound up firing the scouts and using stats to assess players. It did not turn out well. I expect people will compare him to Billy Bean, but Billy was doing it when no one else was. Now most teams have a whole team of people doing fancies.

    I think the play with ARZ is to find a guy that has poor fancy stats but good tools and pry him loose. The weakness of fancy stats is predicting young players.

    Can anyone explain to me what was wrong with the last GM there? He seems to have done a decent job with the draft and keeping a cash starved team somewhat competitive.

    And BOS are a bunch of pricks. They won’t want to make a trade with Chia – see Dougie Hamilton.

    I expect that Chia is just stirring the pot. Trying to get something going. No one saw the GR trade coming last year. We won’t see it coming this time. I would think it would be #4 for a low first and a Dman.

    On GR, agreed with CASH$. He has lots of time still. He is still on his ELC. If he was with DET, we would not even worry about seeing him until 2017-18. Its clear he has a lot of tools but that he is more a cerebral player than anything. It will take him some time to learn. And he will be more dependent on his team mates being where they need to be on the ice.

  15. anjinsan says:

    1) The Reinhart trade is not linked to Barzal but rather to
    Barzal or Kyle Connor AND (the likes of) Brandon Carlo.

    2) Are the Oilers better off with Reinhart or with Kyle Connor and Carlo?
    Absolutely it would be Connor and Carlo; and Carlo’s a big RH high upside D.

    Chiarelli completely squandered Oiler assets at the draft last year — it was incompetence.

    .

  16. GCW_69 says:

    russ99: He had 17:56 and 11:51 ice time with 3 hits, 4 blocks and no goals allowed the last two games with Letang and Maatta out, so that whole Schultz still sucks and the Pens don’t trust him narrative doesn’t fly.

    The ill will that some fans have for this kid goes way beyond Poti…

    The whole Reinhard thing makes me wonder what the timeline is for MacT and Howson being let go is. After the draft??

    If he is only playing because Letang and Maatta are out, then it would seem the narrative holds imo.

  17. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – I agree that Demers or D from West makes sense. I know the research that says RD/LD, but if Demers is our #1RD:

    – Get a vet on 2 years LD to pair with Klef or Sekera (Campbell/Chara for example), and you aren’t competing for the few RHD’s available, and more more fexibility.

    – Do the right deals, not “If we don’t get 2 RHD at all cost this summer we are doomed”

    So on D:

    Sek/Demers
    Klef/Real top-4 D vet on 2 years (Chara/Campbell)
    Davidson/Fayne
    Gryba

    – The focus on 2RD or bust at this stage is mis-guided. Too “costly” too much term. Just get a top-4 that has top-4 D. LD/RD is for when you are going on Stanley Cup run.

    – So if Davidson improves, or Nurse or Griff: they could be part of package at the right time for RD balance upgrade.

  18. RexLibris says:

    R William Knierim, Dubuque Fightings Saints (USHL). A huge winger (6.03, 198) who scored a little (54, 14-13-27, NHLE is just 11) and is ranked No. 149 CS NA. Someone likes him, might be the Oilers.

    That reads like a Flames pick in the 2nd round similar to Hunter Smith.

    With Mangiapane and Gaudreau I think Burke/Treliving/Button all start to look at adding some muscle. I would bet money they are asking about moving two of their 2nd rounders for a late 1st if the Dallas Stars’ pick doesn’t graduate there for them in an effort to try and nab Brown.

  19. Ducey says:

    Willis has a good piece on Pakarinen at the Journal. http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/should-the-edmonton-oilers-re-sign-restricted-free-agent-iiro-pakarinen

    He finishes by saying that: To my eyes he’s a real find by the team’s European pro scouts and the Oilers should certainly re-sign him

  20. digger50 says:

    I went back and read the verbiage around Reinhardt prior to the draft. It was very strong and I could see how he was favored and drafted at #4. If I assume the scouts had some idea of what they were doing then I have to believe Griffin was the best or near the best choice in that date and time.

    So what happened? Did they miss by so much that Griff will bust while being passed by so many in his draft year? I think this unlikely. It is more likely that he is just a slower developer, and could be affected by so many things as a young person, inside or outside of hockey.

    I believe patience will pay off with this player. He needs coaching and confidence.

  21. Caramel Batman says:

    russ99: He had 17:56 and 11:51 ice time with 3 hits, 4 blocks and no goals allowed the last two games with Letang and Maatta out, so that whole Schultz still sucks and the Pens don’t trust him narrative doesn’t fly.

    The ill will that some fans have for this kid goes way beyond Poti…

    Textbook example of reading what you want into the situation. It takes a special kind of nerve to spin seven healthy scratches, last guy off the bench to get to play into …. doing well.

    Schultz is terrible.

  22. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    anjinsan,

    If we could guarantee that the Oilers would have made perfect picks at both positions it sets the trade up poorly, absolutely.

    Given that even good teams that we all respect can’t do that all the time I think it’s a bit of a high bar, but so be it.

    Again, I didn’t like the trade at the time, I still don’t. But it’s not the end of the world. Describing last year’s draft, or even this move, as a complete squandering of assets is hyperbole and in my opinion detracts from effective discussion of the subject.

    Here’s a good way to keep perspective. When we traded MPS for Perron we included the 32nd pick, which ended up being Ivan Barbashev.

    The collective apoplexy on this site and others at losing Barbashev was staggering. You’d have thought Barbashev had already won the Calder with his performance.

    He put up 28 points in 65 AHL games last year. Is he still a good prospect? Sure. Is he the second coming? Probably not.

  23. Caramel Batman says:

    digger50:
    I went back and read the verbiage around Reinhardt prior to the draft. It was very strong and I could see how he was favored and drafted at #4. If I assume the scouts had some idea of what they were doing then I have to believe Griffin was the best or near the best choice in that date and time.

    So what happened? Did they miss by so much that Griff will bust while being passed by so many in his draft year? I think this unlikely. It is more likely that he is just a slower developer, and could be affected by so many things as a young person, inside or outside of hockey.

    I believe patience will pay off with this player. He needs coaching and confidence.

    Another example of reading into the situation your own expectations. Reinhart was a clear overdraft at the time. He was the Crouse of that draft.

  24. digger50 says:

    It is true Chia does not telegraph his moves – but he does seem to have a sly smile at times. Like after the trade deadline when he announced there was one trade not yet announced. (Maroon)

    To me he had a similar look when stating he was reasonably certain he could fix (or was it improve/upgrade) the defense. I think its not what he going to do, but has already done or at least laid the framework for the trade.

    Still not a lot to go on. Unusual how quiet Hamonic camp has been all year. That deal could be done pending announcement. He did have something going with Anahiem, and again they could have said yes but wait till year end to pull the trigger. He has to wait for the rest of the chess pieces line up before executing, but I feel the plan is made. The draft has a separate strategy, but not one that will fix next years defense.

  25. Rondo says:

    As possibility Oilers should consider this. I’m saying they should do it.

    Trade #4 + #32 to Arizona for #7 and #20.

    This is what Redline report had this to say about the draft. Hockey Prospects Mark Edwards said the same thing.

    “Okay, let’s get right down to brass tacks: This year’s NHL draft depth is bad.

    There, we said it. Don’t get us wrong — we love the grouping in the top 10; even the next dozen or so down to No. 22 on Red Line Report’s list list offer considerable promise.

    But there’s a steep decline in talent in the mid-20s, and then things drop off a cliff around the middle of the second round.

    We are struck by the comparison of the players we had ranked in the 20s through the mid-40s in 2015 to now. It’s not pretty Once you get past the mid-20s in 2016, there are a lot of warts and no sure bets.”

  26. John Chambers says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    smellyglove,

    I don’t see why we are suggesting his upside is third pairing lefty.

    He’s the kind of player that develops by sundial.

    He’s got lots of tools.

    He got better as the year went on.

    He’s 2.5 years younger than Brandon Davidson, who is just now emerging as a 3rd pairing guy with upside into the top 4.

    He’s still younger than Jeff Petry was when he made his NHL debut.

    He’s only 13 months older than Darnell Nurse, whom most people agree has lots of upside even if he isn’t there yet.

    It was a steep price.I didn’t love it at the time, admittedly.

    But it’s not the end of the world, and the book hasn’t been written on the kid.Far from it.

    Applause.

    We should all temper our frustrations with Griffin and the trade. He’s a good-skating large man whose craft is defensive play.

    Him and Nurse will be guys the Oilers lean on to protect leads and suppress the opposition’s offence.

    Still very young and we’re watching him develop as a pro. He’s going to make some folks eat their hats.

  27. digger50 says:

    Caramel Batman,

    The point being if you were on the draft floor at that time and date, with the same information, would you have made the same decision? If no, what did you see? If yes what went wrong. With the benefit of hindsight you are stating “what” the outcome was. Not a lot of learnings just stating what is or what was. The why is what is important if you don’t want to repeat the mistake.

    And yes, framing to the positive is more fun.

  28. John Chambers says:

    Caramel Batman: Another example of reading into the situation your own expectations.Reinhart was a clear overdraft at the time.He was the Crouse of that draft.

    So what do you make of him being the Memorial Cup MVP? Was that award handed to him based on his draft pedigree?

    Reinhart will be an extremely useful role player on a winning team. He won’t be a 25 min / night all situations defenseman, but will play responsible minutes and handle the physical aspects that free up a more mobile D partner to wheel.

    While the Oilers are a losing team and while he’s saddled with a less mobile partner however, Griffin Reinhart will not be put in a position to succeed.

  29. RPG says:

    Arthur Staple ‏@StapeNewsday 2m

    Breaking #Isles news: Travis Hamonic has rescinded his trade request, Newsday has learned. More to follow.

  30. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Yikes. Hamonic now playing Hamonice.

    Edit: Not fast enough. Sorry RPG.

  31. godot10 says:

    When the Oilers traded for Reinhart, all they had for left D was Klefbom, a veteran AHL defender named Brandon Davidson, and a rookie 1st round CHL’er name Darnell Nurse.

    Okay, they had Ference and Nikitin too, but only a fool (with good hair) would consider them as viable assets.

    Context is important.

  32. vinotintazo says:

    RPG: Trade #4 + #32 to Arizona for #7 and #20.

    crap.

  33. linkfromhyrule says:

    RPG:
    Arthur Staple ‏@StapeNewsday 2m

    Breaking #Isles news: Travis Hamonic has rescinded his trade request, Newsday has learned. More to follow.

    Well shit. This changes everything. Looks like Chia might need to get creative this summer

  34. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Thanks Kinger!! (haha)

    I like Hamonic or Demers for the 1 spot and agree that Barrie isn’t that guy and *probably* cost too much on the cap to have as 2RD regardless of his points.

    I don’t worry too much about Demers vs big players.

    He played in the Pacific and now in the Central.

    He’s been playing against big players his whole career and his results are very good and I think he could handle 1RD especially with the likes of Klef.

    Staples recently did a mini-scouting report on Demers and it dovetailed with my findings: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-should-take-a-close-lose-at-unrestricted-free-agent-jason-demers

    I’ve said here before that my shopping list would be Demers, Vatanen and then Hamonic, not because I don’t like Hamonic, but I rather that I think the cost to acquire the first two are more friendly than the last one.

    *EDIT – based on Hamonic’s rescinded trade request I think this is now the plan A formula for the off-season.

  35. vinotintazo says:

    godot10: When the Oilers traded for Reinhart, all they had for left D was Klefbom, a veteran AHL defender named Brandon Davidson

    Agreed.

    Actually just re-capping end of 2014-2015. Oilers LHD were.
    Kbom
    Marincin
    Davidson
    Musil
    Oesterle

    which was pretty bad imo.

    adding reinhart put him just under Kbom.

  36. John Chambers says:

    RPG:
    Arthur Staple ‏@StapeNewsday 2m

    Breaking #Isles news: Travis Hamonic has rescinded his trade request, Newsday has learned. More to follow.

    Could just be a red herring in trade negotiations but could also be true after an emotional playoffs.

  37. Caramel Batman says:

    godot10:
    When the Oilers traded for Reinhart, all they had for left D was Klefbom, a veteran AHL defender named Brandon Davidson, and a rookie 1st round CHL’er name Darnell Nurse.

    Okay, they had Ference and Nikitin too, but only a fool (with good hair) would consider them as viable assets.

    Context is important.

    They had Martin Marincin, who is and was better (obviously so, as I noted at the time) than Reinhart and didn’t cost two high picks, but whatever.

  38. vinotintazo says:

    Caramel Batman: They had Martin Marincin, who is and was better (obviously so, as I noted at the time) than Reinhart and didn’t cost two high picks, but whatever.

    Marincin was horrible that year, he had a good rookie year with petry, small sample size.

  39. Chachi says:

    smellyglove:
    LT on Reinhart: “We are probably looking at a third-pairing lefty here, beginning in 2017-18.”

    The 16 and 33 were dear, dear prices to pay for what you’re projecting to be a 3rd pairing defenseman. That’s effectively two first round picks.

    But you’re only getting part of the story here, LT. It’s bad enough that the Oilers traded 16+33 for a D of his track record and potential, it’s ‘who’ he is.

    We’re coming off a decade of the OBC and “saw the Oil King player” good. When you’re only scouting 1/100th of the pool, you’re going to miss out, big time. The Oilers penchant to pursue ‘local’ players at all costs has, is, and will cost them big time. Perhaps what’s worse: this was Chia’s call, which means that he has been afflicted with the disease; someone else made the call, someone else has undue influence, or he’s listening to the wrong people.

    I want my team to be scouring the ends of the earth for undervalued and/or high potential players, not giving up gold for mediocre home city junior team players.

    Not sure what you are getting at here. If you are talking about Oil Kings, the number of them on the roster is awfully small for this level of a freak out. If you are talking about players from the Edmonton area, the Oilers have been embarrassingly bad at identifying local gems with Colton Parayko being the latest example. I want my team to make sure they get the best local players (who they have an opportunity to follow closely to ensure the pick is a good one) before they start taking flyers on players from distant leagues where viewings are few and far between. Or better yet, why not do both?

  40. wheatnoil says:

    Thanks for the shout-out LT!

    To add the Reinhart tracking, now that I’ve gone back and tracked some games earlier in the season, there’s some evidence that Reinhart’s puck-moving improved through the year. Perhaps some time in the AHL is good for people?

    I managed to capture 5 of Reinhart’s 12 games early in the season before he was sent down. At least in those 5 games, he had 9.9 Controlled Zone Exits / 60 and 23.2 Total Zone Exits / 60.

    In the last 11 games of the season, he had improved those numbers to 12.9 Controlled Exits / 60 and 32.2 Total Zone Exits / 60… an improvement of 30% and 39% respectively.

    That’s a pretty massive improvement, even accounting for the fact that the whole team improved somewhat. At the start of the year, Reinhart just wasn’t moving the puck a whole lot. He wasn’t poor at it when he did, but he really deferred to his partner (Gryba… with predictable results). By the end of the year, he was a lot better at this, despite being paired with a better puck mover.

    Development in the AHL… seems to help a lot of D-men… the Oilers should consider it.

  41. G Money says:

    I generally felt Nurse and Reinhart were about the same on the defensive spectrum this season—but the graph suggests Nurse faced tougher opposition and more severe zone starts in the sorties that began from a full stop.

    In fairness, if you draw meaning from the little bit of separation on the chart above, you should point out that Nurse’s bubble is an uglier shade of red too.

    In the latter part of the season, my post-game stats showed a much larger separation in Reinhar’ts favour – Nurse’s pairing was the trailer on the defense almost every game (though it appeared it wasn’t always his fault).

    While Reinhart’s pairing was a yo-yo, sometimes the best and sometimes the worst.

    Both struck me as ‘not unreasonable’ for a two-rookie pairing at their respective stages of career (being that Nurse’s results were worse but he is one year behind Reinhart).

    Defensemen develop by sundial, and both guys are early in their careers, and I think both have shown enough (Nurse raw talent, Reinhart defensive chops) that we should expect them to have NHL careers.

    That said, I think they are far enough along in their careers that it is likely safe to argue that the probability that either will be a top pairing defenseman is low for Nurse and vanishing for Reinhart. And that is disappointing.

    I notice that our own Pouzar on Twitter is betting that Nurse will be better than Hamonic in a couple of years, based solely on the positive HDSCF numbers that Padre posted. Great to be a fan but this is very much against the evidence.

    HDSCF is a volatile small sample stat, and for a single player over a partial season can mean little to nothing. On a broader look, at the same age as Nurse, Hamonic was already facing top line opposition and holding his own.

    And no one could or should argue that Hamonic is a world beater or a legit 1D – he’s a capable defensively oriented top pairing defender. And Nurse is off that pace.

    If Reinhart can learn enough in the next year to bring consistency to his game (where his best games are as good as the best games he had this year, and his worst games are much better than the worst games he had this year), he’ll likely be a solid reliable second to third pair defenseman.

    It’s a win. Still an overpay, but a win.

    If Nurse can learn enough defensive positioning over the next two years to bring defensive reliability to his game (and also maybe learn at least one effective trick in the offensive zone), he has the chance to be a punishing second to third pair all round defenseman with snarl.

    It’s a win.

    Less of a win than we’d like or hope for, but given the number of outright failures in the past in the Oiler system, developing a pair of solid 3/4/5 level D (whether they play or they’re trade assets) would be a big plus.

  42. dustrock says:

    Oh good, now we can leave the Hamonic for Hall storyline. Please.

  43. Ducey says:

    dustrock:
    Oh good, now we can leave the Hamonic for Hall storyline.Please.

    Nope. Now we need to pay more! Hall, Eberle, Nurse and the #4. That ought to do it.

  44. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: Development in the AHL… seems to help a lot of D-men… the Oilers should consider it.

    Radical idea! So radical, it just might work!

  45. RexLibris says:

    dustrock:
    Oh good, now we can leave the Hamonic for Hall storyline.Please.

    Wonder if Hamonic thought that trade idea was so lopsided he rescinded the request to put it to bed?

  46. stush18 says:

    godot10:
    When the Oilers traded for Reinhart, all they had for left D was Klefbom, a veteran AHL defender named Brandon Davidson, and a rookie 1st round CHL’er name Darnell Nurse.

    Okay, they had Ference and Nikitin too, but only a fool (with good hair) would consider them as viable assets.

    Context is important.

    Exactly. And caramel, Marincin was given up for gryba essentially. So that’s a wash.

    Everyone piles on, but I don’t see any other dmen with his skill set and potential being moved.

    Snow gave up too early. Hopefully we can grab strome and let the same thing happen.

  47. godot10 says:

    Caramel Batman: They had Martin Marincin, who is and was better (obviously so, as I noted at the time) than Reinhart and didn’t cost two high picks, but whatever.

    They had the rights to Marincin. Marincin was not under contract, and clearly alienated from the organization, and unlikely to sign a new contract.

  48. bobinyvr says:

    While the trade may have been an overpay (16 & 33), we cannot//should not discount the circumstances which lead to it:

    Oilers were bereft of solid defense or high end defense prospects (Nurse aside).

    Oilers needed defense upgrade ASAP.

    Nicholson conducted forensic audit.

    Most of scouting staff fired before draft. Green, MacTavish, Howson retained.

    Chia hardly knew his organization or it’s prospects.

    Most likely, with limited knowledge and upon the advice of Green, MacTavish, Howson he choose to “speed” up the process with a older prospect (4th overall) well known to the organization’s insiders.

    Having fired the scouts who had abysmal record of drafting, should he have trusted their “list?”

    The price seemed steep then and seems steep now but consider this:

    Would you have traded Paajarvi (10) … assuming we still had him with either Pitlick (31) or Musil (31) or Moroz (32) for Reinhart? I think most fans would have been on board with this last summer and even today.

    And if this was/is an overreach/overpay then I say it reflects more on Green, MacTavish, Howson than on Chia or Reinhart.

    And if Chia now feels he was misinformed, I suspect MacTavish or Howson will be gone before Reinhart. Can’t happen soon enough IMHO.

  49. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: His hiring reminds me of JP Riccardi with the Blue Jays. Wound up firing the scouts and using stats to assess players. It did not turn out well.

    Working out pretty good for Theo Epstein who was hired by Red Sox as a 31 yr old.
    Now kicking ass in Chicago.

  50. Centre of attention says:

    No Hamonic it sounds like. Vatanen and Demers it is I guess.

    I guess this means Fayne stays? No way Peter can get 3 better D to replace Fayne now.

  51. godot10 says:

    Braydon Coburn was a #8OV whom Reinhart is closely tracking in term of a defensive D progressing to the NHL.

    This is the point where Atlanta made the bonehead trade of giving up on Coburn for Zhitnik.

    Karl Alzner is another. Took till the last year of his ELC to play a full season in the NHL.

    The “problem” with defensive D is that they have to be able to defend at the NHL level before they get a real NHL shot. Offensive D can be broken in sooner, because they can contribute offensively, while being protected defensively…i.e. they add something so teams will keep them up and limit their defensive exposure. With a primarily defensive prospect, NHL teams let them master D at the AHL level first, because a defensive D cannot help at the NHL level until they actually a good at defending.

  52. russ99 says:

    With Hanonic dropping the trade request, the market for qualify D with an edge has really shrunk.

    Makes me think Nurse is even more important to hold onto now.

  53. vinotintazo says:

    Centre of attention: No Hamonic it sounds like. Vatanen and Demers it is I guess.

    I can live with that.

  54. Woogie63 says:

    Not sure I see this story the same way,

    Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech had passed Reinhart – We would not have traded two draft picks for the other two prospects, so what evidence is their GR had been passed.

    2015/16
    Pluck 51 AHL and 15 NHL game, 6 games in the play-off (about 14 minutes a night, 3 pairing), did not play the last three play-off games

    Pelech 27 AHL and 9 NHL games, did not play in the play-offs

    ———————————————————————————–

    Gave up too much in a 16th and 33 pick – last 10 draft years

    year 16 33
    2015 Barzal Stephen
    2014 Milano Barbeshev
    2013 Zadorov Erne
    2012 Wilson Collberg
    2011 Armia Grimaldi
    2010 Tarasenko McFarland
    2009 Leddy O’Reilly
    2008 Colborne McRae
    2007 Gillies Ellington
    2006 Wishart Markarov
    2005 Borret Neal
    2004 Nokeliainen Chris Bourque

    out of the 24 players selected 4 are better than GR, if we missed the 2009 draft we are sad, but if we missed the 2013, 12, 11, 08, 07, 06, 05, 04 we are very happy

    ————————————————————————————————–

    We have Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart as under 22 high end prospects … if they can form our top four in the future you might wonder if Stephen and Barzal were spelt with an a or e

  55. jonrmcleod says:

    Pouzar,

    Epstein was actually 28 when the Red Sox hired him as GM.

  56. jake70 says:

    From April 11/16 – “”Oilers’ GM Peter Chiarelli on need for a top defenceman: “I am reasonably confident I can address it in a meaningful way.”””

    That was before the draft lottery. I fear he might be forced to overpay for whoever this D man might turn out to be now with one less on the market. Still irritated by dropping down 2 spots April 30th – I’ll get over it.

  57. godot10 says:

    Offer sheet Trouba…if one cannot make a trade with the Jets for him.

    Reinhart and the #4OV for Trouba and Hutchinson

  58. Pouzar says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Pouzar,

    Epstein was actually 28 when the Red Sox hired him as GM.

    Yes you are correct!
    Even better.
    I believe he was 30 when Sox Won in 2004.

  59. godot10 says:

    jake70:
    From April 11/16–“”Oilers’ GM Peter Chiarelli on need for a top defenceman: “I am reasonably confident I can address it in a meaningful way.”””

    That was before the draft lottery. I fear he might be forced to overpay for whoever this D man might turn out to be now with one less on the market. Still irritated by dropping down 2 spots April 30th – I’ll get over it.

    The Oilers didn’t drop down two spots. They are right in the middle of where probability suggested that they would pick. The Oilers were never entitled to the #2OV pick, so there were no two spots to drop down.

  60. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10:
    Offer sheet Trouba…if one cannot make a trade with the Jets for him.

    Reinhart and the #4OV for Trouba and Hutchinson

    Why?

    What is it about Trouba that gets people so excited?

    He has played in the NHL for 3 years.

    He was good in year 1.

    He wasn’t good in year 2.

    He wasn’t good in year 3.

    Not saying this isn’t a good prospect… rather I’m saying he’s a total unknown.

    Oh, and he reportedly wants the Hall contract. Seems a tad Prima-donnaish given his performance.

    No thanks.

    Oh, and save the “he’s a big athletic specimen that can play physical and can skate”.

    So are Jack Johnson and Luca Sbisa.

  61. Centre of attention says:

    godot10:
    Offer sheet Trouba…if one cannot make a trade with the Jets for him.

    Reinhart and the #4OV for Trouba and Hutchinson

    This could be a reasonable bet.

    Seth Jones needs a contract still, speaks volumes its not already done. I would offer sheet both, why not. No way Columbus can match, Winnipeg might depending on the $value.

  62. Oil2Oilers says:

    GR + Yak for Adam Larsson? Or do you have to upgrade Yak to Eberle.

  63. Centre of attention says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Why?

    What is it about Trouba that gets people so excited?

    He has played in the NHL for 3 years.

    He was good in year 1.

    He wasn’t good in year 2.

    He wasn’t good in year 3.

    Not saying this isn’t a good prospect…rather I’m saying he’s a total unknown.

    Oh, and he reportedly wants the Hall contract.Seems a tad Prima-donnaish given his performance.

    No thanks.

    Hall is massively underpaid. Dougie Hamilton got 5.5. Trouba will probably get something in the 4s. His last 2 years have probably lowered his value a bit, or else he would be getting Hamilton money.

    Just my opinion though.

    PS: I take Trouba on my team any day. Especially if your just giving up futures and cap space in an offer sheet scenario.

    I like the idea of offer sheeting Jones better though.

  64. Магия 10 says:

    anjinsan: ) The Reinhart trade is not linked to Barzal but rather to
    Barzal or Kyle Connor AND (the likes of) Brandon Carlo.

    That’s just as off base as linking GR to Barzal. The very little we heard was that the Oilers were looking at none of the above names.

    I’m fine with comparing Reinhart at 5 years from draft to the average result from 15-19 and 33-37.
    The result from a specific player that Oilers weren’t going to pick does not compare the draft bullets to GR.

  65. Магия 10 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Pouzar,

    Epstein was actually 28 when the Red Sox hired him as GM.

    That was my first take when it was suggested that the experienced GM’s would easily fleece the new guy in AZ. Just like they fleeced Theo on his way to the World Series win. Owner originally tried to land Billy Beane but when he got turned down settled for Epstein. Worked out OK working with Larry, but will Tippet’s experience add or subtract from the results.

  66. Магия 10 says:

    godot10:
    Braydon Coburn was a #8OV whom Reinhart is closely tracking in term of a defensive D progressing to the NHL.

    This is the point where Atlanta made the bonehead trade of giving up on Coburn for Zhitnik.

    Karl Alzner is another.Took till the last year of his ELC to play a full season in the NHL.

    The “problem” with defensive D is that they have to be able to defend at the NHL level before they get a real NHL shot.Offensive D can be broken in sooner, because they can contribute offensively, while being protected defensively…i.e. they add something so teams will keep them up and limit their defensive exposure.With a primarily defensive prospect, NHL teams let them master D at the AHL level first, because a defensive D cannot help at the NHL level until they actually a good at defending.

    Makes sense that Offensive D get NHL time somewhere between Forwards and Defensive D. Wonder if that can be verified.

  67. Ducey says:

    Pouzar: Working out pretty good for Theo Epstein who was hired by Red Sox as a 31 yr old.
    Now kicking ass in Chicago.

    He had the second highest payroll in baseball all his years in Boston. Its not tough to win when you can outspend most of your opponents by a significant margin.

    In 2004 his opening day payroll was $125 Million. Tampa Bays was $25 Million. Toronto’s was $50 M. Baltimore’s was $51 M.

    Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget that will be closer to the floor than the cap. His situation is closer to the Tampa Bay Rays than the Red Sox.

    Maybe he can fluke out a Miami Marlins year every once and a while but he won’t be able to tear it down and live off TV revenue to do it.

  68. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: Pysyk was the first Oil King that Green drafted as GM btw……

    The answer to cowbells is…. more cowbells. Need to get Lazar out of Ottawa as well.

    Kudos to LT for working Pysyck into a the fans are overwrought about an Oil King prospect post.

  69. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Trouba was great in year 1 and only pretty good the past 2 seasons. HDSCA/60 numbers have improved, and his possession metrics are still rather good and would be a lot better were his most common partner not Mark Stuart.

    I’d move a lot to bring in Trouba. Do all defenceman on a loaded depth chart

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Магия 10,

    Staffer said EDM would have taken Joel Eriksson Ek at 16, not Barzal or Connor

  71. rickithebear says:

    RPG:
    Arthur Staple ‏@StapeNewsday 2m

    Breaking #Isles news: Travis Hamonic has rescinded his trade request, Newsday has learned. More to follow.

    Christmas in Summer!

    15-16:
    doughty 6’1″ 195lb (26) was 215lb 2 years ago
    1. Upper 2nd #87 comp faced
    2. #76 D .76 EVP/60
    3. #92 D .24 A1/60
    4. #41 D 9.83 HSCA/60
    5. #123 D 7.81 PKGA

    K. Miller 6’2″ 210lb (28)
    1. upper 2nd #81 comp faced
    2. #59 D .85 EVP/60
    3. #84 D .26 A1/60
    4. #35 D 9.70 HSCA/60
    5. #125 D 7.93 PKGA
    Doughty ?
    isn’t he one of the final 3.

    I too love to look at wowy:
    For each D.
    I like to Check how another player does without the player we are looking at.

    but then I like to look how that same player does without the Better and worse of another player.
    Last 2 years looking at non goalies with 25+ minutes:

    doughty:
    28 Players:

    -24 players were better with Doughty.
    -he was better without 10 of them
    of these 10 7 are clearly driven by him; Weal, Nolan, Stoll, Reghr, Richards, ANdreaoff, Lecavalier
    – he was worse without 14 of them
    clearly a symbiotic relationship or driven by the other. The sum better than the Individual.

    4 players were better without him
    He was way better without them.
    of the 28 he clearly drives 10 of the 28.

    K .miller
    33 players:

    -18 are better with Miller
    -11 Miller was better without (driver)
    – 7 Miller better With Symbiotic or or other driver.

    -15 are better without Miller
    – 8 miller is better without
    -7 Miller is better with these. Some are clear drivers of the bus. Bergeron, Marchand, R. Smith, Pastarnak, Lucic.

    Notice 1st line forwards with higher CF rates playing withk. Miller.

  72. Ducey says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Магия 10,

    Staffer said EDM would have taken Joel Eriksson Ek at 16, not Barzal or Connor

    I don’t know if you intended to misspell Bob’s name, but that is a perfect typo given his position straddling the media and the Oilers.

    Bob Staffer it is!

  73. Fog of Warts says:

    It’s hard to say Chia is disappointed with Griff without knowing what Chia thought he was buying. Perhaps he was buying a coin-toss that Griff was the better of two roughly equivalent guys (one already in hand), buttressed by 100% faith in Griff’s development sundial (as yet inconclusive). Under this prospectus, it would be far too soon to say Chia has dabbed the corners of eyes—much less folded his hand—on this transaction.

    That coin toss should have lead to at least an extra half an AHL season divided between the coin-toss duo, but the god’s of hockey clearly had other ideas.

    ———

    I picked up Reclaiming Conversation yesterday, by Sherry Turkle (as seen on TED!) She’s been pedaling this bike since the 1980s, back when Super Mario was destroying the youth of the nation. I had high expectations.

    Two words surface at every turn: empathy and nuance. Turns out that interacting with real people in real time promotes these slippery human skills. Who knew?

    What I had not fully grasped is how many members of the university-age demographic are absolutely terrorized by the social media permanent record. They don’t want to verbalize a single thing that hasn’t been edited once for wit/pith, once for ironic distance, and once for curatorial risk with an eye to the long view. For a person sending 200 texts per day (while phlubbing all the while), this entire cognitive-review loop can be compressed to the 3–10 second range (which is extremely generous compared to the 100 ms it takes a man of sound mind and body to scrub “Justin Schultz” + “Norris”—speaking of which, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for MacT to notarize his will in triplicate, you know, in case of the least suspicion).

    I wouldn’t describe myself as someone generally at a loss for words, yet real life interactions still at times seems like such a high bar. I tend to file this under “war on cliché collateral damage”. People say things to me in real life and I just stare back for about three seconds with giant fish eyes, while my mind sorts and collates and sucks plankton, until a small bubble of dissolved gas nucleates a large enough bubble to pass my lips, and only then am I able to respond back. I have a large empty room where most people store all those handy, prefabricated social graces. There are basically two ways to get away with real life social interaction with no prefabricated social graces: you can be as charismatic as John Belushi, or as quick-witted as Robin Williams (or as plenty-of-both as Bill Murray; the younger crowd might wish to substitute some rap musician who can do both of the above while also lifting your wallet, just as a joke—generational progress marches ever onward).

    Roughly the same 3–10 s it takes a nimble thumb to curate posterity, is what it takes me to organize the least thing worth saying. (This seems less like a crippling liability when sitting down to bang out a 1000 word in-class essay on some mystery subject of the day—bonus marks for quoting Shakespeare, Rabelais, and T. S. Eliot in an essay on photo radar.)

    Unfortunately, Turkle loses me on the first page.

    Why a book on conversation? We’re talking all the time. We text and chat. We may even begin to feel more at home in the world of our screens. Among family and friends … we turn to our phones instead of each other. We readily admit we would rather send an electronic message … Face-to-face conversation is the most human [] thing we do. Fully present to one another, we learn to listen. It’s where we develop … It’s where we experience … But these days we find ways around conversation. We hide from each other even as we’re constantly connected … For on our screens, we are tempted to present ourselves as we would like to be. Of course, performance is part of any meeting, anywhere, but online and at our leisure, it is easy to compose, edit, and improve as we revise. We say we turn to our phones when we’re “bored.” And we often find ourselves bored because we have become accustomed … We are forever elsewhere.

    I put the only useful phrase in that litany of “we” into italics.

    This is a common experience for me. I hardly ever nod agreeably when I encounter a litany of “we”.

    Fortunately, my previous read, Clear and Simple as the Truth, provided me with a rosetta stone.

    Classic Style is Not Plain Style

    Plain style is communal, its model scene a congregation in which speakers reaffirm for each other common truths that are the property of all. In the theology behind plain style, truth is always simple, and it is a common human possession. Individual revisions of this communal possession distort and dilute it. The wisdom of children can be the wisdom of adults, because knowing the truth requires no special experience and no critical analysis. Sophisticated thought and conceptual refinement pervert truth. … Simple language may not always be completely adequate to the expression of truth, but at least it is pure as far as it goes.

    After imbibing that dense passage, the litany of “we” is a big come down.

    Classic style does not reject plain style, although it rejects the theology behind it and sees that theology as illegitimately elevating a necessary foundation into an achieved style … plain style is deficient because … plain style ignores the fact that [†], left to themselves, people are vulnerable to special interests and prone to special pleading. People are weak, and common wisdom is thus often self-serving. It is perfectly possible for common wisdom to be an anthology of a community’s complacent errors, because common wisdom does not include any principle of critical validation. Without critical testing, common wisdom becomes received opinion.

    I have absolutely no idea what this author is smoking here. Anyone else? I jest. It’s actually a beautiful example of reaffirming common truths of this particular tide-deprived pond.

    ———

    [†] Strunk and White: “In especial the expression ‘the fact that’ should be revised out of every sentence.” [‡]

    ———

    [‡] Yet another tweet-able disruption to ruin the flow.

    ———

    Resolved: that this sad retreat into “litany of we” is Sherry Turkle adorning herself in the plain style before scaring away her flighty, natural audience with her three degrees.

    I have spent my professional life as a student of conversation, trained as a sociologist, a teacher, and a clinical psychologist.

    Don’t even mention Harvard and MIT. In social media, the slow reveal is the best reveal, you know, lest you come across as too much of something all at once. (She has a good passage about the overriding concern of young people not to appear “needy” in their social media posture, which unfortunately didn’t make it into the index. Too much, too soon being either needy or insufferable, take your pick.)

    Classic style remedies the deficiency of plain style by requiring the writer to stand entirely behind the thought he presents. Freshness is mandatory in classic style but freshness has nothing to do with novelty of ideas, on which classic style places no special premium. It is rather the requirement that the thinking behind the writing be the achievement of an individual. The classic writer has done the thinking, personally. Even when he accepts or uses a commonplace, he has thought it through himself and can stand behind it himself.

    This book is actually not a litany of “he/him”, though the passages I’ve chosen today (and in a previous post) are riven with it.

    ———

    Moving on now to practical style, the commonplace of educational and business settings.

    The surface mark of classic style that is most uncongenial to practical style can be picked out by what we will call the “last-third” test: once you have progressed a little way into a piece of writing, block out the last third of each sentence as you come to it, and imagine the standard things you might expect to occupy that position, based on what you have already read. If what in fact does occupy that position is routinely one of the standard and expected things, then that piece may be a paragon of practical writing, but is unlikely to be classic.

    ———

    Intermission. You may check your phone.

    For those of you still with me, the first time I saw Top Gun was on a bike trip that took me into rural Oregon. The small theatre actually had an intermission. We wander out into the bright, surprising sunshine for ten minutes (in was high June) and then we return to theatre, whereupon in the next few seconds of footage [MUSTY SPOILER ALERT] Goose goes to a green-filtered watery grave. Whoa! Bit of a mood change there, compounded by our eyes still adjusting to the darkened room.

    ———

    This is not because classic sentences reverse themselves at the end: once you see the end of a classic sentence, you will recognize that the sentence was true to its direction, but that does not make the sentence predictable, because it usually contains a conceptual refinement that is clear and simple as the truth but not a cliché and hence not predictable.

    Well, there it is. Collateral damage from the war against cliché. Plain style. Scratch one. Practical style. Scratch two.

    ———

    Plain style values simplicity but shuns nuance. Classical style values both simplicity and nuance.

    Then the authors give a few examples:

    Plain style: The truth is pure and simple.
    Classic style: The truth is rarely pure, and never simple.

    Plain style: Seeing is believing.
    Classic style: Seeing is believing only if you don’t see too clearly.

    One of the purposes of practical styles is to make it easy to dip in and out, such a document you might need to re-skim every few days for years on end (e.g. An NHL-Insider’s Annotated CBA). For this, one wants predictable things in predictable places.

    Personally, my favourite sentence is the one that undermines itself three different ways before breakfast, with each new twist slier than the last.

    This is not exactly compatible with generational “wait, what?” rule of three that Turkle discusses at length (not found in index under “rule”) about the etiquette of group settings:

    If fewer than three people are listening and you check your phone, you risk coming off as rude and self-obsessed. If three or more are listening, however, the speaker can feel adequately heard, granting you social license to attend to those nagging vibrations in your pocket.

    I tend to think of my writing as brisk, at times compressed almost to cryptic, yet I see how it reads long to a certain eye, failing as it does the gapping-out test with flying colours.

    Every once in awhile this trade will come up, I will express my views, and the comments proceed to beat me about the head because of it. No matter that I don’t aggressively post these views, don’t mock the player, don’t in any way attempt to sway other views.

    Well, yes, if I were in the business of selling common Kool-Aid (e.g. “seeing is believing”) my ornate verbiage would perform so much better in the gapping-out test at half the length.

    How about we repeat one passage from above? (in the spirit of being willing to try anything once):

    It is rather the requirement that the thinking behind the writing be the achievement of an individual. The classic writer has done the thinking, personally. Even when he accepts or uses a commonplace, he has thought it through himself and can stand behind it himself.

    I’m not trying to sway people to my beliefs. I’m trying instead to sway people to my strength of conviction, that everyone should stand behind their own thoughts personally.

    Thus I cultivate a style both forceful and incomplete (it isn’t classic, but it sure as hell isn’t plain or practical, either.) Into my deliberate gaps and incongruities, insert reader here (N-1 batteries included).

  74. Магия 10 says:

    Ducey: He had the second highest payroll in baseball all his years in Boston. Its not tough to win when you can outspend most of your opponents by a significant margin.

    In 2004 his opening day payroll was $125 Million. Tampa Bays was $25 Million. Toronto’s was $50 M. Baltimore’s was $51 M.

    Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget that will be closer to the floor than the cap. His situation is closer to the Tampa Bay Rays than the Red Sox.

    Maybe he can fluke out a Miami Marlins year every once and a while but he won’t be able to tear it down and live off TV revenue to do it.

    Your comment when Coyotes announced the hire was that he’d be fleeced in trades. Was Theo fleeced in trades? Excuse the pun but once he got in ‘Nomar’ being fleeced and losing trades.

  75. rickithebear says:

    last year:
    reinhart: #4 2012
    1. #121 comp
    2. #223 .14 EVP/60
    3. #213 .00 A1/60
    4. #204 13.61 HSCA/60
    5. #1 D PKGA 1.37 1.63 PKTOI

    S. Jones #4 2013 draft
    1. #121 Comp
    2. #94 D .74 EVP/60
    3. #46 D A1/60
    4. #207/208 D 13.81 HSCA/60
    5. #94 D 6.71 PKGA/60

    they are both awful even options for defencemen.

  76. Магия 10 says:

    Fog of Warts: I hardly ever nod agreeably when I encounter a litany of “we”.

    ~ Anyone telling the reader that they agree, or should agree or must should be on the top of our pet peeves list. ~

  77. AsiaOil says:

    Point #1 – Those players are not the Oilers selections – those are your selections – and it’s intellectually dishonest to look back at a draft and pick the players you like best given an extra year of data and compare them to Reinhart. An honest way is to look at potential games played – and as I’ve said numerous times – a solid analytic case can be made the Oilers simply paid in full.

    Point #2 – Reinhart was clearly better than Nurse at the end of the year when he had a partner who complimented his skill set. Even though Oesterle was a raw rookie who is on the small side and can be physically dominated – he has really good zone exit skills that nicely compliment Reinhart’s zone denial talents. Gryba and Fayne on the other hand are probably the worst matches you can think of for Reinhart. The Oilers had no other decent zone exit partners unless you put the the rookies up against top competition – and that worked out so well with Nurse.

    So let’s bitch about losing some precious magic beans, hitch the rookie dman we acquire to marginal partners who don’t compliment him at all, and then whine about the results some more. I was glad when they got GR out of town after Klef went down – and I remain convinced that the only reason they kept Nurse up was to evaluate his potential first hand – and on that count the results were decidedly mixed. One guy is moving and it’s probably Nurse whose upside could be limited to 3rd pair (kind of a Gryba who skates well) if he doesn’t figure what he needs to do in both offensive and defensive zones – and not every guy figures it out.

    anjinsan:
    1)The Reinhart trade is not linked to Barzal but rather to
    Barzal or Kyle Connor AND (the likes of) Brandon Carlo.

    2) Are the Oilers better off with Reinhart or with Kyle Connor and Carlo?
    Absolutely it would be Connor and Carlo; and Carlo’s a big RH high upside D.

    Chiarelli completely squandered Oiler assets at the draft last year — it was incompetence.

  78. bendelson says:

    Centre of attention:
    No Hamonic it sounds like. Vatanen and Demers it is I guess.

    I guess this means Fayne stays? No way Peter can get 3 better D to replace Fayne now.

    Severson for Yakupov?
    Pysyk for Reinhart?

    Yes, it’s doubtful we have three new and improved RD ready to go in September, but there are options beyond Vatanen and Demers out there…

  79. Магия 10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Магия 10,

    Staffer said EDM would have taken Joel Eriksson Ek at 16, not Barzal or Connor

    That was one of the 2 names that were floated the most just before and just after the draft. If we are assessing the value of the picks in the hands of Oiler amateur scouting vs. Reihnart that would be closer to the mark. But far better to go longitudinal and average out over a few years at that spot and/or with nearby picks.

  80. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: He had the second highest payroll in baseball all his years in Boston. Its not tough to win when you can outspend most of your opponents by a significant margin.

    In 2004 his opening day payroll was $125 Million. Tampa Bays was $25 Million. Toronto’s was $50 M. Baltimore’s was $51 M.

    Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget that will be closer to the floor than the cap. His situation is closer to the Tampa Bay Rays than the Red Sox.

    Maybe he can fluke out a Miami Marlins year every once and a while but he won’t be able to tear it down and live off TV revenue to do it.

    The KC Royals, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, TB Rays, NY Mets…..
    Money helps but you can win by building from within. The Red Sox did it, the Cubs are a juggernaut now, the Rays have been competitive for years, Pirates, etc. Money is nice but not the be all end all. The Yankees were at their best when they developed their dynasty through the minors (Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, Bernie Williams). You don’t need huge $$ to build a solid organization that can compete.

  81. blainer says:

    Hey Pouzar…

    Happy to see ya back. Your comments are always entertaining..

    Gotta question for ya..

    I know you are a huge fan of Nurse..

    With your living in the peg what would you think of a Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

    With Hamonic off the table the options just got a lot smaller.

  82. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear:
    last year:
    reinhart: #4 2012
    1. #121 comp
    2. #223 .14 EVP/60
    3. #213 .00 A1/60
    4. #204 13.61 HSCA/60
    5. #1 D PKGA 1.37 1.63 PKTOI

    S. Jones #4 2013 draft
    1. #121 Comp
    2. #94 D .74 EVP/60
    3. #46 D A1/60
    4. #207/208 D 13.81 HSCA/60
    5. #94 D 6.71 PKGA/60

    they are both awful even options for defencemen.

    Ricki,

    Thank you. That one sentence at the bottom makes your post understandable to someone like me who has a hard time parsing the wall of numbers and abbreviation without a clear sense of the point trying to be communicated.

    Please continue with the format good sir.

  83. who says:

    godot10:
    Offer sheet Trouba…if one cannot make a trade with the Jets for him.

    Reinhart and the #4OV for Trouba and Hutchinson

    Don’t know if I want to give up the pick. Given that Winnipeg is a budget team do you think they would be willing to take Davidson even up for Trouba. If not what would the Oilers have to add?

  84. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget….

    I doubt the new wonderboy in ARZ wants to trade two firsts for #4.

    Boy genius.

    Wonderboy.

    You have a lot of anger towards ARI’s new GM.

    Did a group of mathletes beat you senseless with slide-rules and stuff spreadsheets in your mouth when you were in high school?

    Seriously, I look at a 26 get named GM and think “Good for you man!! I was happy to be named Sales Manager at that age and I thought I was kicking out the jams”

    Lots of anger there Ducey, its not healthy.

  85. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree. If you’re willing to hire the guy as GM even though he’s only 26, he’s gotta be pretty damn smart. I know Dubas in TOR sure is

  86. JimmyV1965 says:

    bobinyvr:
    While the trade may have been an overpay (16 & 33), we cannot//should not discount the circumstances which lead to it:

    Oilers were bereft of solid defense or high end defense prospects (Nurse aside).

    Oilers needed defense upgrade ASAP.

    Nicholson conducted forensic audit.

    Most of scouting staff fired before draft. Green, MacTavish, Howson retained.

    Chia hardly knew his organization or it’s prospects.

    Most likely, with limited knowledge and upon the advice of Green, MacTavish, Howson he choose to “speed” up the process with a older prospect (4th overall) well known to the organization’s insiders.

    Having fired the scouts who had abysmal record of drafting, should he have trusted their “list?”

    The price seemed steep then and seems steep now but consider this:

    Would you have traded Paajarvi (10) … assuming we still had him with either Pitlick (31) or Musil (31) or Moroz (32) for Reinhart? I think most fans would have been on board with this last summer and even today.

    And if this was/is an overreach/overpay then I say it reflects more on Green, MacTavish, Howson than on Chia or Reinhart.

    And if Chia now feels he was misinformed, I suspect MacTavish or Howson will be gone before Reinhart. Can’t happen soon enough IMHO.

    Totally agree with this. But even beyond that. Every GM has the potential of striking out with every deal they make. The good ones hit more homers than whiffs. The bad ones do nothing. They tinker around the edges, the overlpay for free agents. They essentially do nothing and hope the issues resolve themselves. As I see it, PC has hit more homers then whiffs. The only way I lose confidence in him this summer is if he steals a page from MacT and Tambs and tries to fix the defence by simply overpaying for free-agent dmen like Deners and not trading for someone who can actually make a difference.

  87. Pouzar says:

    blainer:
    Hey Pouzar…

    Happy to see ya back. Your comments are always entertaining..

    Gotta question for ya..

    I know you are a huge fan of Nurse..

    With your living in the peg what would you think of a Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

    With Hamonic off the table the options just got a lot smaller.

    Thx B….life is extremely busy at the moment (“studying” as we speak) so I won’t be around much till July-ish. Stupid work, school, soccer, jiu-jitsu, golf, life, etc etc.

    Not a big Trouba guy. I would echo what Cash said above. He hasn’t progressed from his rookie year like one would have hoped. The fan base here have really soured on him based on the comments of people at work and my season ticket holder buds. And I really liked Trouba pre-draft too. But d-men, they develop in all sorts of non-linear ways and stuff. I can’t speak for his fancies but I would think his performance would have something to do with a an uptick in competition.

  88. Магия 10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: at one sentence at the bottom makes your post understandable to someone like me

    Ricky, but does awful even mean extremely even or they are even in being awful?

    ~ Thank goodness you include a few numbers to help us interpret your torrent of words. ~

  89. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    Boy genius in ARZ will have a team imposed budget….

    I doubt the new wonderboy in ARZ wants to trade two firsts for #4.

    Boy genius.

    Wonderboy.

    You have a lot of anger towards ARI’s new GM.

    Did a group of mathletes beat you senseless with slide-rules and stuff spreadsheets in your mouth when you were in high school?

    Seriously, I look at a 26 get named GM and think “Good for you man!! I was happy to be named Sales Manager at that age and I thought I was kicking out the jams”

    Lots of anger there Ducey, its not healthy.

    No anger. Just skepticism at the age more than him being a math geek.

    I know the analytics people love it because secretly they all think they could do the same thing.

    But being a GM is a tough job. This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.

    I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.

    Experience matters.

    No problem if this guy was an assistant GM for 5 years and was ready to step in. This guy did it for like 8 months.

    But I would be very upset if he was just appointed Oilers GM.

  90. godot10 says:

    Pouzar: Thx B….life is extremely busy at the moment (“studying” as we speak) so I won’t be around much till July-ish. Stupid work, school, soccer, jiu-jitsu, golf, life, etc etc.

    Not a big Trouba guy. I would echo what Cash said above. He hasn’t progressed from his rookie year like one would have hoped. The fan base here have really soured on him based on the comments of people at work and my season ticket holder buds. And I really liked Trouba pre-draft too. But d-men, they develop in all sorts of non-linear ways and stuff. I can’t speak for his fancies but I would think his performance would have something to do with a an uptick in competition.

    The only time one can get these D is when they are passing through the valley of doubt, after the draft potential shine has worn off, and before they have the experience to begin realizing that potential.

    Adam Larsson might have been available when he was in the valley-of-doubt, but having passed through, he is now basically unavailable and would require a massive overpay.

    Reinhart and Nurse are currently in the valley-of-doubt, like Trouba, like Fowler was the season before this one.

    Is there risk? Yes.

    In the UFA market one has to overpay for D.

    It is why one has to develop D in-house.

    If the OIlers like Trouba, the only time they are going to be able to get him is when there is a cloud hanging over him.

    There are no risk free moves for D. Vatanen is most likely to be available in a trade that doesn’t scare the hell out of us. Demers is going to be overpaid as a UFA.

  91. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Thx B….life is extremely busy at the moment (“studying” as we speak) so I won’t be around much till July-ish. Stupid work, school, soccer, jiu-jitsu, golf, life, etc etc.

    Not a big Trouba guy. I would echo what Cash said above. He hasn’t progressed from his rookie year like one would have hoped. The fan base here have really soured on him based on the comments of people at work and my season ticket holder buds. And I really liked Trouba pre-draft too. But d-men, they develop in all sorts of non-linear ways and stuff. I can’t speak for his fancies but I would think his performance would have something to do with a an uptick in competition.

    Ya really did not see him much. The Oil really think of Nurse as their potential number 1 D and I really think it will take a massive offer for them to consider moving him.

    Should be a crazy week come the end of June.

  92. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    last year:
    reinhart: #4 2012
    1. #121 comp
    2. #223 .14 EVP/60
    3. #213 .00 A1/60
    4. #204 13.61 HSCA/60
    5. #1 D PKGA 1.37 1.63 PKTOI

    S. Jones #4 2013 draft
    1. #121 Comp
    2. #94 D .74 EVP/60
    3. #46 D A1/60
    4. #207/208 D 13.81 HSCA/60
    5. #94 D 6.71 PKGA/60

    they are both awful even options for defencemen.

    Which Jones are you talking about?
    The Seth Jones who played in Nashville before he was traded and had a HSCA/60 of 8.3
    or the Seth Jones who played in Columbus after the trade and had a HSCA/60 of 13.8.

    HSCA/60 for a player is an on ice metric just like all on ice metrics, that is heavily influenced by the other 9 skaters on the ice and only marginally influenced by said player.

    There is a significant list of Dmen in the past few years who have switched teams and their on ice metrics are not consistent from team to team.

    Some Dmen have gone from having good/incredible on ice metrics on one team, to getting destroyed on another team. (Bogosian/Fayne/Hamilton). Other Dmen have gone from getting destroyed when looking at on ice metrics to having good/decent on ice metrics on another team. ( Kris Russell, Tyler Myers)

  93. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    Theres a reason Bob Mackenzie has Tkachuk @#4 , My guess is because he has watched these prospects play a bunch and because he is much smarter than all of us when it comes to amateur scouting. C’mon boys , Dubois? History repeats itself . Youre going to pass on Keiths son? Not a chance if youre keepin the pick. Keith was a great player , his boy will be too.

  94. godot10 says:

    Ducey: No anger. Just skepticism at the age more than him being a math geek.

    I know the analytics people love it because secretly they all think they could do the same thing.

    But being a GM is a tough job.This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.

    I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.

    Experience matters.

    No problem if this guy was an assistant GM for 5 years and was ready to step in.This guy did it for like 8 months.

    But I would be very upset if he was just appointed Oilers GM.

    Tippett is the real GM. When your coach is the GM, it is really hard to find a properly-trained GM to take the job.

    Arizona is the Maple Leafs, when Fletcher moved on, and Quinn was the coach, and Ferguson was brought in to be “the GM”…Quinn was the real GM.

    Just like when Lowe or Sinden or Pulford were best buds of the owner, it was next to impossible to high a properly-trained GM.

    Arizona has moved to a coach-centric model. Tippett won the turf war with Maloney.

    Some coach-centric GM models work in the NFL. More fail than succeed, but some succeed.

    It tends to be really difficult for a coach to separate the GM hat from the coach hat. The coach’s opinion of a player tends to contaminate the GM’s opinion of the player.

    Daryl Sutter is a good example of this, and really good coach.

    Sutter the GM failed Sutter the coach when he held both roles.

  95. godot10 says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76:
    Theres a reason Bob Mackenzie has Tkachuk @#4 , My guess is because he has watched these prospects play a bunch and because he is much smarter than all of us when it comes to amateur scouting. C’mon boys , Dubois? History repeats itself . Youre going to pass on Keiths son? Not a chance if youre keepin the pick. Keith was a great player , his boy will be too.

    Bob McKenzie’s list is NOT his list or reflect his personal opinions at all. It is an aggregated list of 10 actual NHL scouts.

  96. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    Proves my point even more THX

  97. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Pouzar: The KC Royals, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, TB Rays, NY Mets…..
    Money helps but you can win by building from within. The Red Sox did it, the Cubs are a juggernaut now, the Rays have been competitive for years, Pirates, etc. Money is nice but not the be all end all. The Yankees were at their best when they developed their dynasty through the minors (Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, Bernie Williams). You don’t need huge $$ to build a solid organization that can compete.

    As a Yankees fan let’s call 2004 (and the coming back from an 0-3) what it was. A damn fluke! Yes Epstien won but it was at least partially led by a bit of 2006 Oilers luck. (In another words I had to eat serious crow from a Red Sox buddy of mine for years after that Yankees collapse and I’m still bitter about it hahaha)

  98. BONVIE says:

    blainer:
    Hey Pouzar…

    Happy to see ya back. Your comments are always entertaining..

    Gotta question for ya..

    I know you are a huge fan of Nurse..

    With your living in the peg what would you think of a Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

    With Hamonic off the table the options just got a lot smaller.

    Trouba is a young Defenseman with good potential, we have a ton of Defenseman with good potential our problem is not having talented young Defenseman with tremendous upside, our problem lies with lacking the experienced Defenseman to break these talents into the NHL.

    Show me a good young Dman who excelled breaking into the NHL and then look at his partner, and you will see a competent veteran.

    I would like to see all of Davidson, Rheinhart, and Nurse be in our top 7 all fairly inexperienced but promising options. Sekera would look great on the second pair with anyone of these young D.

    A Winnipeg option for us would be Tyler Myers. Has mostly played top pair throughout his career. Myers with a Klefbom would be a great top pair. Myers is Just entering his prime years, has a good contract, heavy shot, right hand, physical, good skater who can really control the game

    Fayne and Gryba would be decent playing as veteran partner with the third pair.

    Klefbom Myers
    Sekera Davidson
    Reinhart Vataanen
    Gryba Nurse
    Osterle Musil

    An upgrade on Fayne to a Vataanen would allow a few more options.

  99. square_wheels says:

    RPG:
    Arthur Staple ‏@StapeNewsday 2m

    Breaking #Isles news: Travis Hamonic has rescinded his trade request, Newsday has learned. More to follow.

    To quote the always wise Ricky (TPB Ricky not our Ricki!) – I toad a so, I fucking TOAD A SO !

    Hamonic and his agent finally clued in that the team owns your ass for 4 additional years and really gives zero fucks about how close you want to be to your family.

    Of course this moves the target for a pair of top 4 RHD, but we’ve got oodles of NHL forwards, surely we can send 2 or 3 of them away for projecting top 4 NHL D. (dripping sarcasm folks)

    #pleasedonttradeNUGEorHALL

  100. godot10 says:

    BONVIE:
    A Winnipeg option for us would be Tyler Myers. Has mostly played top pair throughout his career. Myers with a Klefbom would be a great top pair. Myers is Just entering his prime years, has a good contract, heavy shot, right hand, physical, good skater who can really control the game

    Myers is not a first pairing D. He has “failed” there in Buffalo and Winnipeg. He is a 2nd pairing D.

    i.e. he a much like Dion Phaneuf, a very good 2nd pairing defensemen. If you expect him to be first pairing, you will be disappointed.

  101. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Ducey: No anger. Just skepticism at the age more than him being a math geek.

    But being a GM is a tough job.This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.

    I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.

    Experience matters.

    I would agree that experience matters with negotiating and personnel management. However, I think it was in the book “Fermat’s Enigma” where the author went to great lengths to explain that math is the field where you are expected to make your greatest contribution to the field during your 20’s.

    If this young gentleman is making decisions based on math, and he’s good at math, age shouldn’t make an appreciable difference. He will not get better at math with age.

    However, he will likely benefit by surrounding himself with good personnel for helping with management and trade/re-signing negotiations (but again, this could be true for a GM of any age as well).

  102. Магия 10 says:

    godot10: Bob McKenzie’s list is NOT his list or reflect his personal opinions at all.It is an aggregated list of 10 actual NHL scouts.

    9 of the 10 surveyed had Tkachuk at #4 or #5. They had Dubois in 7-8 as much as 5-6. Bob gives them equal upside with Dubois being full 200′ and Tkachuk very effective at getting to the net to score.

    Dubois is rising. Tkachuk could be our guy on the porch or you trade if you get a real difference maker. Nice problem to have.

    UPDATE: And we still do not have Bob’s final June survey. If we are going by consensus it will be interesting to see if the separation is still shrinking.

  103. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    godot10: Myers is not a first pairing D.He has “failed” there in Buffalo and Winnipeg.He is a 2nd pairing D.

    i.e. he a much like Dion Phaneuf, a very good 2nd pairing defensemen.If you expect him to be first pairing, you will be disappointed.

    How has he failed? I realize you have been a regular poster here for a long time but really? Either of those two guys would be on our 1st pairing …Easy . picking in the top of the draft every year, thats dissapointing.

  104. Магия 10 says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!: As a Yankees fan let’s call 2004 (and the coming back from an 0-3) what it was. A damn fluke! Yes Epstien won but it was at least partially led by a bit of 2006 Oilers luck. (In another words I had to eat serious crow from a Red Sox buddy of mine for years after that Yankees collapse and I’m still bitter about it hahaha)

    Only problem with that is they did sweep the Cards and they were built for another.
    Bad enough to lose 3 straight. Good enough to win 4 straight.
    No matter the order of the W and L the sample size for the AL series was 7 games.

    And to cut back to who got fleeced the Nomar trade put that team over the top.

  105. dustrock says:

    If you like Tkachuk, you’ll find evidence why he should be the favorite pick at #4.

    If you dislike Tkachuk, you’ll find evidence why he shouldn’t be the favorite pick at #4.

    Replace “Tkachuk”, with “Dubois”, “Brown”, “Chychrun”, “Sergachev”, “Nylander”, and “Juolevi” at will.

  106. bendelson says:

    Question for the group.

    You have an opportunity to land a young 3RD in a trade. Assuming identical and acceptable acquisition costs, which player somewhere in the ‘valley-of-doubt’ do you choose?

    Severson
    Pysyk
    Miller (hi ricki)
    Other?

    (Note: I would place Trouba/Vatanen/Barrie/Faulk in the 2RD category)

  107. Магия 10 says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: However, he will likely benefit by surrounding himself with good personnel for helping with management and trade/re-signing negotiations (but again, this could be true for a GM of any age as well).

    I’d imagine he did not get to do the surrounding yet. The question is does Tippet add or subtract. It will work if he’s good at selecting the targets and is the primary driver. The value of Tippet’s experience is better as a feedback loop than as brakes or tangents.

  108. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Магия 10: The value of Tippet’s experience is better as a feedback loop than as brakes or tangents.

    Yes… I agree entirely.

  109. frjohnk says:

    With Hamonic now off the market, and if Demers is indeed headed to free agency, I wonder if Chia would trade a conditional pick for Demers rights before the draft to at least get a swing in before the draft.

    If Demers does not want to come here, then Chia needs to get something done by the draft to add to the Dcore.

    I like Demers, but with Sekera already having one, I wouldn’t give Demers a NMC. With a possibly expansion draft coming up, I bet many UFA’s will be looking at getting a NMC.

  110. who says:

    godot10: Myers is not a first pairing D.He has “failed” there in Buffalo and Winnipeg.He is a 2nd pairing D.

    i.e. he a much like Dion Phaneuf, a very good 2nd pairing defensemen.If you expect him to be first pairing, you will be disappointed.

    Don’t really see him as failing anywhere. He was too young in Buffalo (great rookie year probably set the bar too high) and has been good in Winnipeg. I doubt the Jets would be willing to move him but I would take him if they did. The only concern with Myers is the hip surgery he is having this summer.. I am guessing Trouba would cost considerably less in salary and acquisition cost.

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    BONVIE: someone

    Don’t expect offence from Myers. He’s never put up decent numbers in junior or the NHL. The exception would be his rookie year in Buffalo. Tyson Barrie put up way better numbers than Myers for the two years they played together in Keliwna and Barrie was a year younger.

  112. russ99 says:

    blainer:

    Nurse for Trouba straight up. Winnipeg could use a lefty with sooo much talent on the right side.

    I can’t see in a million years why the Oilers would do that.

    Just for handedness? Play Nurse on the right side, he’s young enough to adapt, problem solved.

    Trouba is kind of the player Nurse will be in 2 years if he somehow doesn’t develop as much as everyone expects.

    To which I have no doubts that he will develop further.

  113. JimmyV1965 says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76: How has he failed?I realize you have been a regular poster here for a long time but really? Either of those two guys would be on our 1st pairing …Easy . picking in the top of the draft every year, thats dissapointing.

    Myers has never posted good offensive numbers. He doesn’t play with an edge like Nurse. He may develop into a top pairing dman but we need a proven player.

  114. AsiaOil says:

    Spot on…..

    If we want Trouba then this summer is the only opportunity. One of Nurse or GR needs to be moved to get it done. It really depends on what mgmt thinks after a full year of viewing Nurse. It’s a mixed bag really. Sure the toughness and skating is wonderful – but beyond that – there are serious questions. He’s pretty much clueless in the offensive zone. Even GR was able to create several 5 alarms back door chances that he just missed on last season. Nurse’s classic skate the puck into the offensive zone at top speed and then go for a pointless trip around the net or take a useless sharp angle shot did not speak to elite offensive creativity. Defensively he also had major issues which may or may not resolve. Point is – he is certainly no sure thing – and if WPG would do Trouba for Nurse straight up you seriously consider it as it resolves part of the LHD/RHD issue. You want Trouba signed to the Klef contract though. Nurse is nowhere close to Trouba in terms of offense as you can see below.

    Trouba
    2013-14 (age 19) 65GP 10-19-29 +4 43PIM
    2014-15 (age 20) 65GP 7-15-22 +2 46PIM
    2014-15 (age 21) 81GP 6-15-21 +10 62PIM

    Nurse
    2014-15 (age 20) 69GP 3-7-10 -13 60PIM

    godot10: The only time one can get these D is when they are passing through the valley of doubt, after the draft potential shine has worn off, and before they have the experience to begin realizing that potential.

    Adam Larsson might have been available when he was in the valley-of-doubt, but having passed through, he is now basically unavailable and would require a massive overpay.

    Reinhart and Nurse are currently in the valley-of-doubt, like Trouba, like Fowler was the season before this one.

    Is there risk?Yes.

    In the UFA market one has to overpay for D.

    It is why one has to develop D in-house.

    If the OIlers like Trouba, the only time they are going to be able to get him is when there is a cloud hanging over him.

    There are no risk free moves for D.Vatanen is most likely to be available in a trade that doesn’t scare the hell out of us.Demers is going to be overpaid as a UFA.

  115. BONVIE says:

    JimmyV1965: Myers has never posted good offensive numbers. He doesn’t play with an edge like Nurse. He may develop into a top pairing dman but we need a proven player.

    Oilers just got rid of Shultz they don’t need another offense first who does not cares about defense. So i am hoping people ease off on suggesting Barrie or worse yet Keith Yandle. The Oilers need a solid veteran Dman who can control the game like Myers, the Oilers seem to be persistent on running 4 forwards on their PP so what they need out of their D is a heavy shot from the point and Myers provides a heavy shot from the right side, in Winnipeg he is the second best heavy shot Dman as Byfulgian plays on his team and has an even heavier more accurate shot than Myers so when i have seen him on the PP with Buff he is actually feeding his one timer instead of shooting. Myers really duplicates Buff in alot of areas and Winnipeg just dumped alot of money on Buff, Truoba is also a right hander, so they have 3 rights in there top 4, I think he can be pried out for the right offensive player.

  116. AsiaOil says:

    I hope so – we are a good match as they have a hole at LHD where we are strong

    I honestly think that Nurse will be a 2020 version of Jason Smith. Even defensive dmen need elite skating ability now to compete – and I just don’t see his offense appearing out of nowhere. He could be top pair – but would need to play with a skilled RHD or it will kill your offense. Eye-glow only gets you to the 3rd pair. That’s my take on Nurse – Jason Smith with wheels.

    BONVIE: Oilers just got rid of Shultz they don’t need another offense first who does not cares about defense. So i am hoping people ease off on suggesting Barrie or worse yet Keith Yandle. The Oilers need a solid veteran Dman who can control the game like Myers, the Oilers seem to be persistent on running 4 forwards on their PP so what they need out of their D is a heavy shot from the point and Myers provides a heavy shot from the right side, in Winnipeg he is the second best heavy shot Dman as Byfulgian plays on his team and has an even heavier more accurate shot than Myers so when i have seen him on the PP with Buff he is actually feeding his one timer instead of shooting. Myers really duplicates Buff in alot of areas and Winnipeg just dumped alot of money on Buff, Truoba is also a right hander, so they have 3 rights in there top 4, I think he can be pried out for the right offensive player.

  117. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    Gotta say you’re killing it in the thread today with many posts and like AO I love your “Valley of doubt” post regardless of how much I like / don’t like Trouba.

    Great stuff.

  118. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    I know the analytics people love it because secretly they all think they could do the same thing.

    Oh, I think most analytics people overtly think they could do the same thing.

    Given the track record of many on here and some previous posters (like Tyler, Dennis etc) on calling signings/trades the day they happen they are probably right too.

    But being a GM is a tough job. This guy has never been involved in running a draft, making a trade, dealing with the finances, fans, media, crazy owners, etc.
    I don’t know anyone that is as good at their job (besides being an athlete) at 26 as they are at 46.
    Experience matters.
    No problem if this guy was an assistant GM for 5 years and was ready to step in. This guy did it for like 8 months.
    But I would be very upset if he was just appointed Oilers GM.

    I agree with this 100%.

    There are many facets of the job that will take time to understand and do well.

    How he will do will depend on how wise he is.

    A wise man knows what he does not know.

    The ability to recognize what you do not know and get help in those areas can be the difference between success and failure in any management position or anything really.

  119. AsiaOil says:

    The things you have to like about Trouba are size, a bit of snarl, skating, and triple the points production of Nurse at one year younger in age. Yes his offense slipped back – but dmen do not develop in straight lines – and it’s still double Nurse’s offensive production. If we can pretty much swap him for Nurse straight across you do it – and then try sign Demers as UFA. Big thing is will Trouba agree to the Klefbom contract for at least the first 4 years.

    Klef Demers
    Sekera Trouba
    Reinhart Davidson Fayne

    Depth at RHD is still worrying but Rome was not built in a day and we still have Yak, an Austin and #4 as trade chips.

  120. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    BONVIE: Oilers just got rid of Shultz they don’t need another offense first who does not cares about defense.

    That’s not fair.

    If Schultz had actually produced offense a lot of people would have been OK with him.

    But he didn’t.

    In his final year here he posted offense at a rate below that of Roman Polak on the leafs/sharks.

    Roman Polak.

    All this with lots of minutes with great linemates. He was basically in charge of passing the puck to Taylor Hall and still didn’t manage to generate even tertiary offense. He was not an offensive Dman in his last year here. He was a defensive Dman who couldn’t defend.

  121. Alpine says:

    You’re really just trading upside with Nurse for upside and more development/offense with Trouba. I think it’s about as fair a trade for both teams as you’ll find out there. Kinda like the Pysyk-Reinhart trade idea. I get that Nurse is a pretty unique prospect for how mean he is in correspondence with his talent level, but there’s still concern that he ends up more mean than talented at the NHL level.

  122. Woodguy says:

    bendelson:
    Question for the group.

    You have an opportunity to land a young 3RD in a trade.Assuming identical and acceptable acquisition costs, which player somewhere in the ‘valley-of-doubt’ do you choose?

    Severson
    Pysyk
    Miller (hi ricki)
    Other?

    (Note:I would place Trouba/Vatanen/Barrie/Faulk in the 2RD category)

    Severson.

    His contribution to possession and PP ability puts him first.

  123. Fog of Warts says:

    Afternoon errands accomplished.

    My extra amusement over the phubbing clip is that he might actually be staring at the blue-dress’s plunging apex, if the camera crew live-streamed the video feed to his phone to help Doofus Prime optimally position his leering hat-face (but not until after the actor recovers from bimbo akimbo syndrome—wait, wait, just a few more takes I’ll have these bent sight lines totally nailed; this also accounting for the authenticity of the lead actress’s quick, disapproving smack, and why the blue dress eye-rolls the camera with a private smirk before dropping her gaze to track the yellow hash marks banding her dignified lane past the camera stand).

    Beautiful afternoon.

    Got my favourite Montreal-style bagels, my favourite coffee beans (and my favourite macchiato), 2 lbs of 30%-fat Halal ground beef for BBQ hamburgers (Egyptian butcher), and managed to squeeze in a chapter of Too Big to Know under my favourite sidewalk cafe, people-watching shade tree, for which I was in exactly the right mood.

    Full title: Too Big to Know: Rethinking Knowledge Now That the Facts Aren’t the Facts, Experts Are Everywhere, and the Smartest Person in the Room Is the Room.

    As titles go, I guess it’s not a Pablo Diego José Francisco de Paula Juan Nepomuceno María de los Remedios Cipriano de la Santísima Trinidad Ruiz y Picasso.

    Picasso came before 80-column punch cards (or he might not now be remembered at all), whereas Weinberger’s 147-character title is (I strongly suspect) an intentional gift of blue balls to the blue bird. His little joke—if it is a joke—won’t survive translation to Spartan sparrows of an Asian feather.

    On Zuosa, in just 114 Chinese characters, the Dell account was able to tweet the following:

    Dell’s National Day Sale will run from Sept 11 to Oct 8. To celebrate the 60th anniversary w. the motherland, Dell Home Computers is offering 6 cool gifts & deals on 10 computer models. These exciting offers will run non-stop for 4 weeks. Also, get a free upgrade to color casing & a 512MB independent graphics card, as well as other service upgrades. All offers are on a first-come-first-serve basis. What R U waiting 4? Act now! [Link]

    Source: Lauren Dugan.

  124. AsiaOil says:

    Think NJD would take Yak and Fayne for Severson? Not like they have any cap issues and they know Fayne who is a RHD like Severson.

    Woodguy: Severson.

    His contribution to possession and PP ability puts him first.

  125. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil:
    Think NJD would take Yak and Fayne for Severson? Not like they have any cap issues and they know Fayne who is a RHD like Severson.

    If you retained on Fayne a bit (hold back $1MM?) I bet they would.

    They might do Yak-Severson straight up too.

  126. Woodguy says:

    Fog of Warts,

    2 lbs of 30%-fat Halal ground beef for BBQ hamburgers (Egyptian butcher)

    My somewhat local Lebanese butcher makes a killer kafta meat mix.

    Love it.

  127. Philosophil says:

    Too late to the discussion from this morning, however LT’s Curious include Mahura, another local (St.Albert) player. His stock could rise if he plays in the Memorial Cup. Can’t ever predict the next Parayko (or Iginla), but an invite to 2016 Oiler rookie camp could be in order.

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