ON THE DOWNBEAT

The Oilers have about 25 percent of their roster on display in Russia, and святое дерьмо they are looking good. McDavid might reach 20 assists by the end of this tournament and lose the scoring championship to Hall—who is having a Cy Young start to the WHCs. Leon has worn himself down so badly over the year he now resides in Fraggle Rock, but Matt Hendricks continues to wind up and work like a bugger and Andrej Sekera is a fine, fine blue. Cam Talbot? He has played well so far. Good days, these. Go Canada!

THE WORLD IS DRUNK WITH SOLUTIONS

demers capture

If you are not sick of talking about the Oilers and defensive options, you may have a problem—but read on! I believe Peter Chiarelli should not trade Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for a defenseman. That is my opinion. Nuge has five seasons left on a completely reasonable contract and is coming off a subpar season. If the Oilers had shopped him a year ago? Major return. This year, the club would be getting far less in trade. Demers is my top option (here) among defensemen who are realistically available. Here are the four defenders at the top of my list:

four horsemen

I have sorted them by 5×5/60, all four players are similar in that category. As you might expect, all but Demers are solid power-play options and Barrie gets the nod in individual high-danger scoring chances. Demers is the Corsi king and also does well in scoring chances against. According to WOI:

  • Demers plays second-pairing comp but the top two pairs seem tightly packed.
  • Barrie is second pairing.
  • Faulk is absolutely top pairing, meaning the numbers above are more impressive.
  • Vatanen is third pair.

It comes down to this for me: Trading Nuge for blue is robbing Peter to pay Paul. It doesn’t improve the overall balance of the team, it just moves the chairs around. Sign Demers, trade for a lesser blue like Ryan Pulock or Damon Severson—keep Fayne—and run with it. There is no good reason to trade RNH on the downbeat. None.

  • Klefbom—Demers
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Davidson—Pulock

coke_machine_00

WHY DEMERS?

He is not a coke machine, but he is an actual NHL player. He is the right play here, for Peter Chiarelli. I came to the conclusion that Demers is the right call over a period of two months, and it was a long and winding road:

  • March 10—RD Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. The more I look at his numbers and performances, the more I like Demers as the top option. I am comfortable saying Hamonic is still No. 1 choice, but getting Demers might be part of a substantial summer. I wonder if the Oilers trade for his rights ala Nikita Nikitin, and then sign him? Dallas has some cap issues. Source
  • April 7Add two defensemen who are actual NHL players. We have discussed this at length, I will only say that at this point I am fairly convinced that Hamonic and Demers are the best available (if Hamonic is) options. Source
  • April 22Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom. The reason Jason Demers appeals to me is that the investment is only money, not assets plus the money. Edmonton doesn’t have a massive group of talents bubbling under, and adding Demers would represent real progress. I think people are missing the point a little here, thinking that the Sekera addition didn’t move the needle. However, adding Sekera merely got Edmonton back to even, as they had traded out Jeff Petry at the deadline. One of the most galling things about this century of Oilers movements has been their incredible blindness to the lack of actual NHL players on the blue line. If they add Demers to Sekera, Mark Fayne and Oscar Klefbom, with Brandon Davidson also in photo, we are officially cooking with petrol. Not a playoff grouping yet, but a really nice foundation.Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom. Source
  • April 23D Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Not as popular in the comments section as he is with this blog’s author, I already have several blog titles lined up for when he signs. Effective defenseman, he costs only money. Source

MY BALANCE LIST (AGAIN)

  • Find balance. Since Chris Pronger was traded, the Oilers have been so far from balance the mind boggles. Balance can come in very specific ways (a righty center to tip in the high passes, or a hammer from the point—even a renowned penalty killer, BUT it starts with blue).
  • Add two defensemen who are actual NHL players. We have discussed this at length, I will only say that at this point I am fairly convinced that Hamonic and Demers are the best available (if Hamonic is) options.
  • Re-stock the system. The 2015 draft looks good early, Edmonton needs to do it again. As well, signing college and CHL and Euro free agents (doing very well this spring in this area) is vital. Some for the 50-man, more on AHL deals.
  • Keep the centers three. Why? It sets up everything, just everything. Look, Todd McLellan doesn’t use his 4line at 5×5 too much, but a third line (featuring Nuge, and say, Pouliot) will give the opposition fits on the road, and give cover to the McDavid and Leon lines at home.
  • Light a candle. I don’t believe in voodoo or witchcraft or the power of a seance, so will go with a simple lighting of a candle. The Oilers have very little depth, so staying healthy will be vital to any success we see next season.
  • My original five things for this season was longer than five and is here. This five things list originally appeared here.

klefbom5

LEFTIES

My long and winding list of possible additions is a righty list, I wanted to highlight some lefthanders. I was never totally convinced Travis Hamonic was coming here, and it is quite possible Peter Chiarelli finds only one RH defenseman this summer. There are some lefthanded options who are attractive. I know this isn’t ideal, but bringing in one of these LHs might make trading an incumbent blue possible (for a RH).

  1. Alex Goligoski, Dallas Stars. If the Oilers needed a LHD, we would be talking at length about him. A fine defenseman with a complete skill set.
  2. Keith Yandle, NY Rangers. Fantastic power-play option and he had 50 percent in possession this year.
  3. Brian Campbell, Florida  Panthers. Old as the hills and twice as dusty. He can play.
  4. David Schlemko, New Jersey Devils. Not a monster option, he shows up in interesting places.
  5. Matt Irwin, Boston Bruins. One of the few LHs from the other list, he could be an effective depth signing.

vatanen wowy may

IT DON’T COME EASY

  • Bob McKenzie: “I don’t know that there’s any talks whatsoever between Edmonton and a team like Anaheim, but I’m sure everybody will be watching Anaheim to see how they handle contract negotiations for Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm, and what they do with their goaltending there, and how all that shakes out. It’s not easy to find Top-4 and it’s almost impossible to find Top-2 defensemen in the National Hockey League via trade, but that’s kind of what the challenge is for the Edmonton Oilers right now, and it won’t be easy.” Source

If the Oilers could send over Benoit Pouliot and Nail Yakupov for Sami Vatanen and Brandon Pirri, would you?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Fascinating final four. Who you got?
  • Jump the Shark. We attempt to skype our brains out in St. Petersburg.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Point-Counterpoint a big, franchise altering trade.
  • Rob Vollman, Hockey Abstract. Bet the Penguins?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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117 Responses to "ON THE DOWNBEAT"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Matt Irwin as a depth option follows the same logic as Demers. He played 3 seasons under TMac. We will offer him a deal if the coach thinks he’s a good option. If he doesn’t, we won’t.

    If your counter argument is that TMac doesn’t understand NHL defense then there is no point in even watching the games next season because we’re totally screwed.

  2. frjohnk says:

    If Demers is the target, the Oilers can not wait until free agency to try and sign him.

    They have to trade for his rights ala Nikitin and figure out if they can come to a deal before the draft. If they cant come to an agreement, then its on to plan B and trading a roster player/4th overall for a Dman.

  3. russ99 says:

    Sadly, unless someone like Subban shakes out, trading someone like RNH may be the only way we get a top pairing D, and third line 2-way centers to fill a spot but not replace RNH are fairly plentiful.

    I think you almost have to do it at this point. We can’t limp through another season with kids and subpar options again.

    I’d really prefer 3 defenseman acquisitions:

    1 – RH top pairing D with physicality, a good point shot, can eat a ton of minutes and can skate to play with Sekera on the first pairing. Hamonic would have been ideal, doh.

    2- RH defensive–oriented D to play with Klefbom on the second pairing, who can clean up for Klef’s defensive zone weaknesses, and is a good fit as a partner to let Klef do his zone exit and zone entry magic. This would be Demers, IMO.

    3 – Gator Smith -type to play with Davidson, Nurse or Reinhart on the 3rd pairing. Gryba could have been this guy, but despite the physicality, he makes way too many bad mistakes in the D-zone. We need someone rock-hard on D here.

    I’m sure some don’t think we need the third guy, but look how many defensemen we went through the last few years. This way Nurse and Reinhart can tear up the AHL to start the year.

  4. Kris11 says:

    Dear Chiarelli,

    Please listen to Mr. Miyagi on balance:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QsPoBXemFmg

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    …Find balance. Since Chris Pronger was traded, the Oilers have been so far from balance the mind boggles. Balance can come in very specific ways (a righty center to tip in the high passes, or a hammer from the point—even a renowned penalty killer, BUT it starts with blue)….

    A HoF d-man like Pronger unfairly tips the scales, so I agree that he brought balance, but if anything, he proved you can’t rely on one player being the balance.

    A team that lost last night, but made the playoffs also made a trade mid season. They sent out their top defensive prospect for a slightly damaged young C. Dealt from depth to address weakness.

    If the good ship Oiler is to be righted, we have to get off this thing about certain players not being traded. There’s one untradeable player. McDavid. Ok, two, nobody’s going to take Korps of our hands, but opposite end of the spectrum.

    We send RNH for Faulk? I won’t like it, but I accept the reasons. Perhaps RNH and Jordan Stahl can start a spare-part center club.

    PS. Having three stud centers and not being able to afford anybody to play with them when the d is crying out to be fixed is NOT balance.

  6. Offside says:

    “Trading Nuge for blue is robbing Peter to pay Paul”
    True but there still exists the potential for net gain, especially if we grab a centre at 4OV. Robbing Peter to pay Paul is not a disaster if Paul is borderline destitute

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    Kris11:
    Dear Chiarelli,

    Please listen to Mr. Miyagi on balance:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QsPoBXemFmg

    Sweep the leg!

    COBRA KAI!

  8. Woodguy says:

    It comes down to this for me: Trading Nuge for blue is robbing Peter to pay Paul. It doesn’t improve the overall balance of the team, it just moves the chairs around.

    Meh, it actually does address balance, just not in a way that is near the top of the list.

    Today’s Roster:
    C- McDavid, Nuge, DrySaddle
    RHD- Fayne

    Tomorrow’s Roster:
    C-McDavid, DrySaddle
    RHD – Faulk, Fayne

    There is no argument that Tomorrow’s roster isn’t more balanced than Today’s roster.

    Its just not done in a way that is optimal in the opinion of many. (mine included)

    If you can get Demers for just money and then:

    -Vatanen for Pouliot & Yak
    or
    -Severson for Yak
    or
    Similar that doesn’t include RNH

    Then the team is better overall and you haven’t sacrificed C depth for RHD depth

  9. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    The only argument is that you can do more in free agency to replace RNH than you can to replace NERD (non existant righty dman).

    So if you think you can go out and get Shaw or Nielsen for a better deal than you can get Demers, it makes sense.

    I think it’s fair to say Backes and Stamkos aren’t in the mix so I’ll leave them out. Too expensive.

    Now I have no idea what the market is like so I don’t know if that’s true or not, but that would be the logic.

  10. qball141 says:

    Trading RNH on its own is a terrible idea but nothing happens in a vacuum. Oilers lack two things terribly:
    – offensively minded defencemen
    – senior leadership

    You mentioned Chiarelli brought in experience last time with the Bruins. He’ll do the same here. If RNH goes out and Backes comes in, is that such a bad deal now? Names like Brouwer or Campbell would fill the grizzled veteran quota that is lacking. Of the four teams left, are any of them lacking veteran leadership?

  11. monsterbater says:

    Woodguy,

    I had a similar thought process looking at last night’s thread and also after reading Gregor’s ON article. My ideal for the summer (not practical due to Oilers love of Nurse):

    – Trade Eberle, Nurse and 3rd (#62) for Faulk, Car 1st (#21 from LA)
    – Yak and a 3rd (85 or 87) for Severson
    – Trade Hendricks for Ryan Strome (too bad we couldn’t do this for korpikoski)
    – Buyout Korpse or ship to CBJ for anything that doesn’t bring back long term salary.

    Hall-RNH-Drai
    Pou-McD-UFA right shot
    Maroon-Strome-Kassian (or other UFA right shot)
    UFA?-Letestu-Pak

    Klef-Faulk
    Sek-Severson
    Davy-Fayne

    Talbot
    UFA G on 1 or 2 year deal <1.75M

    I think this gives us good balance, still maintain our C depth, and drastically improve D. I also think the top 4 D can be interchanged based on matchups and whose playing well.

    The RW is the real hole for depth, but with a solid UFA signing and strome/Drai swaps there is lots of ability for juggling, much like the LW.

    Draft forward at 4 for long term C/W help, draft BPA with edge to D at 21 and 31.

  12. hunter1909 says:

    OFFICIAL 2016-17 OILERS DEATHMARCH UPDATE:

    Returning for a 3rd year, The Official Oilers Death March is looking for someone with Rickibear level skills to help with an official Blog which can interact with long time Death March Players… showing a NHL scoring race style leaderboard for the upcoming season.

    With over 200 Death March Players this past season, and similar numbers from the season previous, The Official Oilers Death March hopes to provide correlating data on an individual basis…in the never ending pursuit of nerd excellence.

    If anyone would like to contact The Official Oilers Death March(preferably someone with Rickibear level internet/computer skills), they can do so here: hunter2909@Safe-mail.net

  13. Aitch says:

    Other than Nurse & Reinhart are there any other blueliners who don’t need to clear waivers to head to Bakersfield next season? The reason I ask is that as much as we keep talking about dealing from the depth up front to address the blueline, is it possible that we actually need to offload someone from the blue to make it work as well?

    Sekara, Klefbom, Davidson, Fayne are all locks unless dealt. Assuming Chia wants a Gryba/Pardy type as well doesn’t leave much room, unless the team is serious about starting all of Nurse, Reinhart and Oesterle in California.

    It’s quite possible that we see some deals such as Davidson + Yak to bring back a higher level, more proven, d-man.

  14. jonrmcleod says:

    One way or another, Chiarelli needs to fix the Oilers’ McDLT defence–the left side’s hot; the right side’s not.

    As we saw with Hamonic, we shouldn’t get our hopes up too high regarding Demers. I’m not sure what the likelihood is that he’ll sign with the Oilers.

    Would Vatanen and Seversen be an acceptable outcome? Those two could probably be acquired without giving up one of Nuge, Eberle, or Hall.

  15. Wolfie says:

    There has been surprisingly little talk of Trouba as an option. I understand why people are down on him. I think the there is a chance here to get a potential #1 D for less than market value. He has been dragged down by Mark Stuart.

    If you look at Sekera’s fancy stats and see his possession below 50% while having to drag around boat anchors it puts things into perspective. Trouba skates and defends very well. He also moved the puck very well.

    The opportunity for a bargain is there. Winnipeg is locked in to Byfuglien and Myers. Trouba will want to get paid and he’ll need the opportunity to do so which he won’t get in Winnipeg.

    I think you can make a trade without robbing Peter to pay Paul. If Pouliot is being shopped I would think the Jets might be a little interested. They’ve lost Ladd and Kane in the last 2 seasons and are thin at LW.

    The other option is flipping Nurse for Trouba. That fixes both clubs Righty/Lefty issues…

    Any deal the Jets were going to make for Hamonic likely involved Trouba. There is an opportunity here that can be exploited.

  16. Aitch says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    As much as I think Stamkos is unlikely, I haven’t completely shut out the idea in my own mind. We already know that Stammer is a big fan of McDavid. And I don’t think we’ve even started to see the draw appeal of McDavid yet. But Stamkos has been watching the kid up close and personal in the summers for a few years now. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he decided this is the guy he wants to play with even before last season began.

    But, I don’t us signing him in free agency. Instead, I think Stamkos would be the perfect sign-and-trade guy. With only the team currently holding the player’s rights able to sign a 8 year deal, Tampa could sign him to the 8-year pact and then deal him to Edmonton for one of the $6M kids, either theNuge or Ebs.

    Not holding my breath, but anything is possible. *Edit* However, this shouldn’t happen unless Chia can also fix the blueline using other means.

  17. Ducey says:

    Agreed 110% LT!

    Don’t trade Nuge. Find some good defensemen regardless of handedness.

    I noticed the Kings are stuck under some very bad contracts. One of then is Dustin Brown. He makes $5.875 for the next 6 years. He is 31. Turns 32 in November. The last two years of the contract pay him $4 M per year. He has been stuck on 28 points ayear for three years now. Because of this the Kings need to consider buying him out.

    He has a no-trade clause where he can list 7 teams he will not go to.

    I think the Oilers should make a play for him. He is still a possession monster (6th on the Kings) with CF of 58.4%. He had 198 shots 5 on 5 for the Kings (leading the team by some margin) . He got little PP time and was their 5th PK option. He shoots right and plays RW. He has the eye glow of winning a few Cups. He is big and physical.

    I would ask for Brown and Erik Cernak and $2 M a year for Lauri Korpikoski.

    Cernak is a big (6’3″) RH defenseman taken last year in the 2nd round (43rd). He is a Slovak, which would help LT over the loss of Maricin and Gernat. He signed an ELC which will slide as he can play another year in the OHL. Not a puck mover yet, but has skill and a good bet to be a solid RH option in 3 or 4 years. He has a mean streak. Pronman had the Oilers taking him in the 1st round last year in a mid term mock draft.

    It gives the Oilers a RH Dman in the system, and a RH power forward in the majors. They will need a RW when they trade Yak. You put a line like Pou – Nuge – Brown out as the third line and that would be pretty nice all around.

  18. Showerhead says:

    Jethro Tull:
    …Find balance. Since Chris Pronger was traded, the Oilers have been so far from balance the mind boggles. Balance can come in very specific ways (a righty center to tip in the high passes, or a hammer from the point—even a renowned penalty killer, BUT it starts with blue)….

    A HoF d-man like Pronger unfairly tips the scales, so I agree that he brought balance, but if anything, he proved you can’t rely on one player being the balance.

    I have a quibble with your quibble. Lowetide’s statement references Pronger being traded away. The arrival of Chris Pronger did not bring balance. It brought with it a top pair of 44-Bergeron which worked because Pronger, a 2nd pair of Smith-Staios which worked because they were good defensemen, and a bottom pair of Cory Cross and Igor Ulanov which got eaten alive night after night after night. This was a very imbalanced group of D, in my opinion, despite the Hall of Famer who held it together.

    At the end of the season, when Pronger was traded away, Edmonton was running Pronger-Smith, Staios-Spacek, and some mix of MAB/Greene/Tarnstrom. THAT was balance, in my opinion – better than balance, it was excellent.

    A team that lost last night, but made the playoffs also made a trade mid season.They sent out their top defensive prospect for a slightly damaged young C.Dealt from depth to address weakness.

    If the good ship Oiler is to be righted, we have to get off this thing about certain players not being traded.There’s one untradeable player. McDavid.Ok, two, nobody’s going to take Korps of our hands, but opposite end of the spectrum.

    We send RNH for Faulk?I won’t like it, but I accept the reasons.Perhaps RNH and Jordan Stahl can start a spare-part center club.

    If Faulk is the goods, I don’t mind this type of trade.

    PS.Having three stud centers and not being able to afford anybody to play with them when the d is crying out to be fixed is NOT balance.

    This is the part that drives me crazy.

    Ryan Nugent Hopkins is Edmonton’s most expensive centre for the next two seasons. His salary? $6M. As a percentage of this past year’s salary cap? 8.4% In 2005/2006, with a $39M salary cap, Ryan Smyth’s $3.5M ate up 8.9% of the cap.

    Hall and Ebs? Same contract. For the next two seasons (IE before McDavid gets paid), Edmonton’s most expensive three players make less than Ryan Smyth did during the cup run.

    Edmonton is not a bad team because they pay their stars too much. They are a team with cap room even now and they are about to get more of it as Nikitin comes off the books.

    So yes, a bit of rant but it’s not about “not being able to afford anybody to play with them” – it’s about needing to make good decisions with the $ and assets available.

  19. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! You see the light finally like me, re: cost of blowing brains out to get 2 RHD

    – Get Demers and one LHD from the list is the way to go. Yandle for 2 yrs on PP: awesome!

    – Still scared re: Klef: if he can’t start next season, we in so much hurt, don’t want to think about it

    Love this line: “If you are not sick of talking about the Oilers and defensive options, you may have a problem—but read on!”

    – On LT, it’s the opposite actually: “if you are sick of talking about D, you may have a problem”!

  20. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Woodguy,

    The only argument is that you can do more in free agency to replace RNH than you can to replace NERD (non existant righty dman).

    So if you think you can go out and get Shaw or Nielsen for a better deal than you can get Demers, it makes sense.

    I think it’s fair to say Backes and Stamkos aren’t in the mix so I’ll leave them out.Too expensive.

    Now I have no idea what the market is like so I don’t know if that’s true or not, but that would be the logic.

    It was so easy to find top C before we drafted them, wasn’t it? Now we have 3 and we must dump one.

    The reality is that you cannot replace the Nuge. Teams don’t give up top 6 C’s.

  21. Water Fire says:

    Sorry LT I didn’t respond to the Faulk question via Gregor last thread, couldn’t get to the interwebs last eve.

    As said before I also agree trading Nuge is bad juju, I’d rather trade the 4th, no more time to wait for rookies.

    I see the rub in what Chiarelli and McLellan see Nuge as. If they don’t see top notch offense in him I think he’s gone because 6M. At least one of the Steve Austins will have to go unless the cap goes up a lot in the next few years as far as I can tell once Connor and the ELC’s start to get paid.

    If a deal nets a top notch RHD with a decade in him it might work out.

  22. who says:

    Wolfie:
    There has been surprisingly little talk of Trouba as an option.I understand why people are down on him.I think the there is a chance here to get a potential #1 D for less than market value.He has been dragged down by Mark Stuart.

    If you look at Sekera’s fancy stats and see his possession below 50% while having to drag around boat anchors it puts things into perspective.Trouba skates and defends very well.He also moved the puck very well.

    The opportunity for a bargain is there.Winnipeg is locked in to Byfuglien and Myers.Trouba will want to get paid and he’ll need the opportunity to do so which he won’t get in Winnipeg.

    I think you can make a trade without robbing Peter to pay Paul.If Pouliot is being shopped I would think the Jets might be a little interested.They’ve lost Ladd and Kane in the last 2 seasons and are thin at LW.

    The other option is flipping Nurse for Trouba.That fixes both clubs Righty/Lefty issues…

    Any deal the Jets were going to make for Hamonic likely involved Trouba.There is an opportunity here that can be exploited.

    How about Trouba. There just seems to be a natural fit with Winnipeg for a hockey trade. They currently have 3 rightys in their top four and we have all leftys, in fact lefty dmen may be this teams deepest position.
    Do you think Chia would have the nerve to do a bigger, blockbuster deal that would include swapping our 4th ov for their 2nd ov. Would probably cost us Hall or Drai but I see Laine as the perfect fit for Connor for the next 10 years. Winnipeg is in pretty good shape on the right side right now with Wheeler, Stafford and Armia.
    Actually Winnipeg is in pretty good shape everywhere when you look at their roster and prospects. Ironically their weakest position, at least in high end talent, is probably left d.

  23. Showerhead says:

    I’m going to continue my rant a little bit.

    On Twitter the other day, someone made a snarky joke about how the Penguins shouldn’t be good because Crosby & Malkin are so expensive.

    It was just a joke but it made me want to look.

    Of the 19 players (1G / 6D / 12F) who played in Pittsburgh’s game 7 win over Washington, 6 of them made less than $1M. How was that possible? Effective management of players on their entry level contracts – IE there are ELCs up and down that Penguins roster including players who are playing important complementary roles.

    Before Vic and Tyler disappeared, they each made compelling points (in quotes more catchy than what I’m about to say) that the NHL salary cap turns winning into a competition of efficiency. There are lots of different strategies to do this, but winning means getting more value for the same $ as everyone else gets to spend.

    Signing Euros, finding players on ELCs who can produce in a specific role, gambling long term on a promising young player – these are all examples of things a GM can try.

    Edmonton, as built presently, gets more than enough value per dollar (in my opinion) from Hall/RNH and obviously gets a huge deal with McDavid’s contract. Even after Connor gets paid, as long as Hall/RNH make $6M there is tons of room to build around them if a GM can get value deals.

    Now, to be clear – as in my post above where I rant but allow I have time for an RNH / Faulk trade (if Faulk is the goods)… I’m not saying trading one of the #1’s is impossible or automatically awful. I am saying the idea that Edmonton NEEDS to do it is a myth.

  24. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ducey: It was so easy to find top C before we drafted them, wasn’t it? Now we have 3 and we must dump one.

    The reality is that you cannot replace the Nuge. Teams don’t give up top 6 C’s.

    You can’t replace the nuge at 100%. You can replace him at 85% though.

    Not saying it’s my first choice. Obviously not. No one would say that.

    But generic statements like “teams don’t give up top 6 C’s” is ridiculous. Teams also don’t ice a lineup of AHL dmen for 10 consecutive years…. oh wait, yes they do.

    If the only way to get a Dman is to trade Nuge, then we consider it. If we can get Frans Nielsen for reasonable money and term (say 5million for 4 years) then that’s a reasonable replacement for Nuge’s minutes.

    He’s not as good, but he’s 20% cheaper in that scenario. I’d say Nielsen is more than 80% as good as Nuge, though he’s older so the hit is reasonable.

    I don’t want to trade Nuge. I don’t. I own 1 Edmonton Oilers shirt; it’s number 93.

    If the only options I have in front of me are:

    1. Trade Nuge for quality help, or
    2. Keep Nuge and ice the same D as last year

    Then I’m trading Nuge. Full stop.

  25. russ99 says:

    monsterbater:
    Woodguy,

    I had a similar thought process looking at last night’s thread and also after reading Gregor’s ON article. My ideal for the summer (not practical due to Oilers love of Nurse):

    – Trade Eberle, Nurse and 3rd (#62) for Faulk, Car 1st (#21 from LA)
    – Yak and a 3rd (85 or 87) for Severson
    – Trade Hendricks for Ryan Strome (too bad we couldn’t do this for korpikoski)
    – Buyout Korpse or ship to CBJ for anything that doesn’t bring back long term salary.

    Hall-RNH-Drai
    Pou-McD-UFA right shot
    Maroon-Strome-Kassian (or other UFA right shot)
    UFA?-Letestu-Pak

    Klef-Faulk
    Sek-Severson
    Davy-Fayne

    Talbot
    UFA G on 1 or 2 year deal <1.75M

    I think this gives us good balance, still maintain our C depth, and drastically improve D. I also think the top 4 D can be interchanged based on matchups and whose playing well.

    The RW is the real hole for depth, but with a solid UFA signing and strome/Drai swaps there is lots of ability for juggling, much like the LW.

    Draft forward at 4 for long term C/W help, draft BPA with edge to D at 21 and 31.

    I’d be good with that, but trading Nurse for anything less than a Pronger-type difference maker is a non-starter to me, and I suspect the Oilers brass thinks that way as well.

    Why would we give up a potential top pairing D when as we all know how hard that is to acquire?

    The rub is this: if McDavid is untouchable, and Draisaitl and Nurse are off the table, except for aforementioned Pronger-type acquisition, who else can we trade that has real value to other teams?

    It’s hard to take, but it’s obvious to me that the Hall cluster are our best trade chips, and RNH arguably has the most value to other teams.

    But if I have to choose between keeping the gang together/unicorns, and the Oilers winning and playing a playoff series next year, I know what I’d pick.

  26. leadfarmer says:

    Goligoski is the Stars defenseman you want. In the playoffs the Stars play him and Klinberg as the definite top pair than the next three have been interchangeable with Russell!! getting the edge on Demers and for some reason Oduya is right there.

    If you can get Faulk you better do it. We always talk how our players dont look that great on paper because they play on a bad team, well Faulk also fits that criteria. Hes only 24 so likely getting better and on a good contract so even if you don’t like him because he is not elite HDSCA or whatever criteria you use he is still a great option for defense by committee.

  27. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:

    If the only options I have in front of me are:

    1. Trade Nuge for quality help, or
    2. Keep Nuge and ice the same D as last year

    Then I’m trading Nuge.Full stop.

    Those are not the only 2 options. That’s the point.

    There are a host of UFA defensemen of various handedness, and the Oilers have other assets besides Nuge.

    People here (and not necessarily you) get themselves into a lather about finding a RH puck mover and have limited themselves to about 3 guys. There are many more options out there. I see no reason why Yandle would not really help the Oilers PP for example.

  28. Kepler62 says:

    Wolfie:
    There has been surprisingly little talk of Trouba as an option.I understand why people are down on him.I think the there is a chance here to get a potential #1 D for less than market value.He has been dragged down by Mark Stuart.

    If you look at Sekera’s fancy stats and see his possession below 50% while having to drag around boat anchors it puts things into perspective.Trouba skates and defends very well.He also moved the puck very well.

    The opportunity for a bargain is there.Winnipeg is locked in to Byfuglien and Myers.Trouba will want to get paid and he’ll need the opportunity to do so which he won’t get in Winnipeg.

    I think you can make a trade without robbing Peter to pay Paul.If Pouliot is being shopped I would think the Jets might be a little interested.They’ve lost Ladd and Kane in the last 2 seasons and are thin at LW.

    The other option is flipping Nurse for Trouba.That fixes both clubs Righty/Lefty issues…

    Any deal the Jets were going to make for Hamonic likely involved Trouba.There is an opportunity here that can be exploited.

    I like your thought process. Not sure I’d trade Nurse, and I also feel it’s pointless to discuss moving him because I doubt he’s going anywhere.

    But I’ve been high on Trouba for awhile – would Yak plus the 32nd pick get his RFA rights?

    You’re correct they are locked into Myers and The Buf – don’t think they want to hand out a big contract to their 3rd pairing RH guy, even if he should be playing higher. I’d give him the Klefbom deal in a heartbeat though – he may not be a top pairing guy but if they got him around 4.2M X (4-7 years) that’ll be a steal for a solid top 4 Dman.

    Alternatively if they do want to keep Trouba – it’s possible Myers could shake loose which would be a nice “veteran” addition.

  29. flyfish1168 says:

    Hi LT. The list you have of RHD is nice. But like you I would not trade the Nuge for them. If we trade the Nuge we would actually put more stress on our D.
    We already know the upside of theses four players. I like the idea of looking into Detroit’s or the Yote’s AHL system for their RHD that are NHL ready and has upside. Also there are LHD men that prefers to play on the RH side. Chicago’s Hjalmarsson is one of them. These are also an option to look at. Like to try and buy low if some teams are in CAP hell. JMHO

  30. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey LT. I agree that trading RNH is dangerous. Not only are we selling when his value is low, but we simply cannot gift Drai with the 2C role. What’s scary is that RNH cold still turn out to be a better player than Johanson. He certainly plays a better two-way game and right now he plays a heavier game, despite being smaller.

    What I disagree with is the notion that it only costs money to get Demers. Cap space should be considered an asset, just like draft picks and players. On the bright side, we won’t sign Demers unless he gets the seal of approval from TMac, which is good enough for me.

    It’s almost impossible for the Oil to avoid overpaying to fill their holes on defence. The choice is basically between cap space, players or draft picks. Right now, I would prefer draft picks because once we have our dmen, we have enough assets on the team to rebuild the farm systrm over the next three or four years.

    However, to get a dman who really pushes the river will likely cost a player as well. I would prefer that we trade Eberle because we know exactly who he is. He’s a premier sniper who can do what Kessel is dong in the playoffs right now, but growth in his game is over. RNH, on the other hand, can still improve his game big time.

    Having said that, I would be in favour of trading RNH if we absolutely have to. If we do that, however, we have to replace him with a veteran 2C who can mentor Drai until he is ready to take over.

  31. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ducey: Those are not the only 2 options. That’s the point.

    There are a host of UFA defensemen of various handedness, and the Oilers have other assets besides Nuge.

    People here (and not necessarily you) get themselves into a lather about finding a RH puck mover and have limited themselves to about 3 guys. There are many more options out there. I see no reason why Yandle would not really help the Oilers PP for example.

    Fair, but what I’m saying is that it’s more complicated on both sides.

    First off if we don’t make a trade before July 1 we will probably lose out on several quality pieces, as the seller will typically want to take care of that at or before the draft.

    So assuming we wait to July 1, we try for a few different options.

    Unfortunately we don’t get to force people to sign deals. We can’t just say “Yandle for 5 years at 5 million”. Maybe someone else wants to pay him more.

    So if it comes down to keep RNH and pay Keith Yandle 6 million/year for 6 years, or
    Trade RNH for Justin Faulk who makes 4.5/year

    Then I still trade RNH.

    And I have $7.5million more cap space to try to patch the hole left by his departure as best I can.

    The point is that we don’t know. So if your solution is to wait to free agency, that’s fine. But understand it means we might not get a good solution, or a cheap solution. If we don’t get a cheap solution and decide to overpay for someone like Yandle, then we’re probably losing Nurse/Drai etc. down the road because we’re handcuffed.

    So again, the trade sucks, I get that. But it also means we know what we’re getting and what we’re getting it for, at the position at which we are weakest. Likewise, it frees up money to patch a hole left by the vacancy of RNH… which amounts to a bandaid on a severed hand, but it beats a kick in the pants.

  32. Cult of Hockey: Jason Demers looks to be available, but is he an answer for the Oilers? | Edmonton Journal says:

    […] as possibly part of the solution for the Oil’s top pairing, teaming him with Oscar Klefbom. Says Mitchell: “The reason Jason Demers appeals to me is that the investment is only money, not assets plus […]

  33. Water Fire says:

    Showerhead: Now, to be clear – as in my post above where I rant but allow I have time for an RNH / Faulk trade (if Faulk is the goods)… I’m not saying trading one of the #1’s is impossible or automatically awful. I am saying the idea that Edmonton NEEDS to do it is a myth.

    Put this way you are correct. They don’t need to trade anybody.

    It would be a thing of beauty that would involve a lot of good fortune I think to get balance and enough performance per contract as there would be a lot of low paid players that couldn’t have bonus rich contracts.

  34. who says:

    Kepler62: I like your thought process. Not sure I’d trade Nurse, and I also feel it’s pointless to discuss moving him because I doubt he’s going anywhere.

    But I’ve been high on Trouba for awhile – would Yak plus the 32nd pick get his RFA rights?

    You’re correct they are locked into Myers and The Buf – don’t think they want to hand out a big contract to their 3rd pairing RH guy, even if he should be playing higher.I’d give him the Klefbom deal in a heartbeat though – he may not be a top pairing guy but if they got him around 4.2M X (4-7 years) that’ll be a steal for a solid top 4 Dman.

    Alternatively if they do want to keep Trouba – it’s possible Myers could shake loose which would be a nice “veteran” addition.

    Thinking more about a big trade with Winnipeg. Something like Hall, Reinhart/Davidson/Nurse, 4th ov for Troubal, Ehlers and 2nd ov. You could also flip our 32 ov for Winnipeg 22 ov if you think we need more depending on the dman.
    We keep our three centers but lose Hall ( replace with younger, cheaper Ehlers). We would lose some production on left wing but gain some on right wing with Laine. Also by dropping a 6 mil salary we would probably be able to afford another decent dman.
    Which team says no to this trade.

  35. russ99 says:

    who,

    I don’t understand how Laine helps us win next year, which is the justification for some to trade Nurse.

    Can’t have it both ways.

    Would rather fix the NHL roster than give away assets to trade up in the draft.

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    One way or another, Chiarelli needs to fix the Oilers’ McDLT defence–the left side’s hot; the right side’s not.

    As we saw with Hamonic, we shouldn’t get our hopes up too high regarding Demers. I’m not sure what the likelihood is that he’ll sign with the Oilers.

    Would Vatanen and Seversen be an acceptable outcome? Those two could probably be acquired without giving up one of Nuge, Eberle, or Hall.

    I think it would acceptable. It’s an improvement for sure. Not ideal though.

  37. Ribs says:

    Schlemko! Yeah! Shouldv’e picked him up years ago!

  38. who says:

    russ99:
    who,

    I don’t understand how Laine helps us win next year, which is the justification for some to trade Nurse.

    Can’t have it both ways.

    Would rather fix the NHL roster than give away assets to trade up in the draft.

    I think Laine will be on an NHL roster next year, either ours or Winnipegs. If we are building a team around Connor guys like Laine, Ehlers and Trouba make a lot of sense, especially if we do not include Nurse in the trade. He would be my third choice of dmen to include but I might still do it to make the deal happen.

  39. rickithebear says:

    monsterbater: article. My ideal for the summer (not practical due to Oilers love of Nurse):
    – Trade Eberle, Nurse and 3rd (#62) for Faulk, Car 1st (#21 from LA)
    – Yak and a 3rd (85 or 87) for Severson

    Trading a steady 24G 63p winger that breaks even PvP when healthy and a young d 2 years from knowing what he is f
    or
    A 4th line forward (cuase he does not play D) making 4.5M
    and
    Carolina’s #1

    That #1 PvP forward for 4th line Forward trade again.
    Brutal!

    Yakupov and 3rd for a 2nd comp 10.90 or better HSCA D.
    that is dreamy!

  40. blainer says:

    The only way I am trading Nuge is if we trade a 5th in 2017 for the rights to either Stamkos or Backes. Really doubt Backes signs here but we are at most third in line behind Tampa and Toronto for Stamkos.

    Sign Stamkos then you can trade Nuge for Faulk or another Number 1 D.

    If that plan fails then I would also be in favor of trading Nurse straight up for Trouba. That trade just makes sense for both teams.. A good hockey trade IMO.

    Pouzar mentioned the other day that Trouba is not popular at all these days with the peg fans and he thinks a Nurse for Trouba trade is a bad idea..

    He makes a good point especially where he lives in the peg but there is also risk with Nurse. Tough call on a trade like that but it does help give both teams balance albeit with risk on both sides..

  41. rickithebear says:

    When you break down dubois center versus Winger numbers.

    Dubois 6’2″ 204lb .694 age NHLE

    Center 38gm
    28G 42A 70P 1.84 PPG
    age NHLE 42G 63A 105p
    18 EG 26 EA 44 EP 1.158 EPPG
    Age NHLE 27 EVG 39EVA 66 EVP
    7PPG 14 PPA 21 PPP .553 PPPPG
    age NHLE 10PPG 21 PPA
    3SHG 2 SHA 5 SHP .132 SHPPG
    age NHLE 5 SHG 3 SHA 8 SHP

    Winger 24gm
    14G 15A 29P 1.208 PPG
    age NHLE 33G 36A 69P
    11EG 10 EA 21 EP .875 EPPG
    age NHLE 26 EG 24EA 50 EP
    3 PPG 3 PPA 6 PPP .250 PPPPG
    age NHLE 7 PPG 7 PPA 14 PPP
    3SHG 2 SHA 2 SHP
    Age NHLE 5 SHG 3 SHA 8 SHP

    Dubois the center compared to history
    is a 105 p 66 EVP 5SHP Nhl center.

    Dubois the winger
    is 69P 50EVP 14 PPP 5 SHP

    He is the option that does not need protecting in a 2017 or 2018 expansion draft.

  42. rickithebear says:

    “Failk or other #1 D.”
    here is were you use one of these is not like the other.

    Scoring like a 3rd line forward is not a #1 D.
    that is a really shitty offensive forward.

    CAUSE HE DONT PLAY D!

  43. rickithebear says:

    Dmen
    1. successfully defend the net at even
    2. hopeful against the best
    3. Defend the net On PK.
    4. excel at transition passing high A1/60
    5. Attack the net in a Ozone situation trying to score a goal.
    Without abandoning the back side. to transition attacks.

    DO NOT ABANDON THE NET TO HSC AREA SHOTS!

    The goal dif math does not work if you do!

  44. Colieo87 says:

    I dont want to sound like the pesstismistic weasel out of the bunch but its a pipe dream this team stays heathy.

  45. blainer says:

    rickithebear:
    “Failk or other #1 D.”
    here is were you use one of these is not like the other.

    Scoring like a 3rd line forward is not a #1 D.
    that is a really shitty offensive forward.

    CAUSE HE DONT PLAY D!

    Ya I probably shouldn’t use Faulk as a number 1 D but MAYBE top three all around D. I am wary though Ricki of Severson .. NJD are a very defensive D oriented team both from their forwards and the D. I am not overly confident in a transition to the western conference but would be all over a Yak trade for him.

    Again I am NOT trading Nuge without a replacement signed first.

  46. monsterbater says:

    russ99,

    I get where you are coming from on Nurse, and I think the Oilers brass probably feels the same way. However, i think we all overvalue Nurse a bit here (though i think some undervalue him too based on his weak season). Is he a can’t miss top 2 D? Maybe, more likely his ceiling is a top 4 D man.

    In Faulk you have a top 2 Dman on a good contract, regardless of what Mr. Bear says. The team is more balanced, and assuming they can find a good right shooting winger to replace some of Ebs’ production, they are a better overall team as well. After 10 years i take that full well knowing the risk trading Nurse now would present.

  47. matt says:

    One of Erikson/Jenner. Two of Demers/Faulk/Vatanen. At the expense of Yakupov/Eberle and spare parts and money.

  48. flygoalie says:

    Hall to Islanders for Johnny Boychuck & #19 pick. Take Tkachuk with #4 & best available D @ 19.

  49. Wolfie says:

    who: I think Laine will be on an NHL roster next year, either ours or Winnipegs. If we are building a team around Connor guys like Laine, Ehlers and Trouba make a lot of sense, especially if we do not include Nurse in the trade. He would be my third choice of dmen to include but I might still do it to make the deal happen.

    I read your post last night and I agree on acquiring Trouba. But don’t make the mistake of trading the Hall cluster for younger players like Ehlers and Laine. It just pushes the timeline for winning back and it continues the perpetual rebuild.

    The Hall cluster is who you want to protect the McDavid group. There may need to be a piece or two added to make a trade work for both teams but you don’t need to send away players that are in their prime for younger players who will experience bumps and be unable to push the river without protection.

    Substitute Reinhart for Nurse if that’s you flavour… But your proposal just keeps the rebuild going.

    Pouliot for Trouba is pretty close to even for both teams. A more proven asset for the Jets vs a legit top 4 Dman with high upside…

    It’s similar to the rumoured Vatanen deal….

  50. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    flygoalie:
    Hall to Islanders for Johnny Boychuck & #19 pick. Take Tkachuk with #4 & best available D @ 19.

    The #3 LW in the game on a long term value contract for a mid first round pick and an expensive over 30yo Dman who is the #3D on his team.

    Yikes.

  51. monsterbater says:

    rickithebear:
    “Failk or other #1 D.”
    here is were you use one of these is not like the other.

    Scoring like a 3rd line forward is not a #1 D.
    that is a really shitty offensive forward.

    CAUSE HE DONT PLAY D!

    This is where you lose lots of people Ricki. Faulk is NOT a 3rd line forward or 4th line forward. Just because that’s what the offensive production is as a defender, doesn’t make it so. You can’t just take a 3rd line forward, say patrick maroon, and put him on the blue to play defense and say that’s equivalent to Faulk no matter how much you despise offensive defencemen.

    I find value in a lot of what you write, but i can’t get on board with an argument that suggests karlsson, subban and faulk are not even top 4 defenders and Kevin Miller is.

  52. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: The #3 LW in the game on a long term value contract for a mid first round pick and an expensive over 30yo Dman who is the #3D on his team.

    Yikes.

    But Hall falls down! And he has bad body language!

    They can pick a weeble at #19 and send him to acting classes. He will be much better.

  53. rickithebear says:

    RUSS:
    Sekera Facing 2nd comp in BUF; LA
    7.95 HSCA/60

    Sekera facing 1st comp in
    BUF 11.80 HSCA/60
    CAR 12.83 HSCA/60 with that beauty faulk!
    EDM 12.04 HSCA/60

    He needs to be 2nd comp period!

  54. Wolfie says:

    I honestly think if Hall was more selfish he would score 40. The days of 50 goal scorers may be gone but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he did it once in his career à la Corey Perry…

    You just don’t trade Taylor Hall.

  55. G Money says:

    Wolfie,

    It’s possible that if everything breaks absolutely right (he’s healthy, his regular C stays healthy, the Oilers have a capable D behind him for the first time ever, and a healthy dose of good fortune) he might get close to that.

    I posted the list of 40 goal scorers over the last five seasons a few threads ago, it is a short list. The only repeat 40 goal season guys are Ovechkin and Stamkos.

    As a rookie, McDavid was on track for a 29 goal season. He will need less good fortune than Hall would to hit 40, but even then, it’s far from a sure thing.

  56. godot10 says:

    The asset(s) leaving for two defensemen will depend on the requirements and needs of the other team.

    I think Vatanen is still the most probable of the available options for one of the D. Anaheim is a budget team. They don”t need a defensmen back. Draft picks and/or Pouliot can probably get the deal done. Say Pouliot and #32 might get it done.

    Reinhart and the #4OV might be enough to get Trouba. And one could add Fayne with salary retained. Helps left D with Reinhart, and give them a 3rd pairing RD in Fayne.

    If Vatanen falls through. Yakupov and the #32 for Severson.

    Then if some or all of the above fails, the Oilers can go hard after Demers on July 1.

    Aside:

    I think Colorado will take Barrie to arbitration (team option) if they cannot sign him. I find it nearly impossible to believe that Faulk is really available, who would be pretty close to the best option. So I refuse the speculate.

  57. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    smh

    Because you can compare HSCA numbers for a player straight across between teams.

    (And for the one common team you’ve got, I’ll bet anything your 1st and 2nd comp numbers for BUF are bullshit, since effectively calculating QoC is a hideously difficult proposition, and the metrics we’ve got now are poor at best and break often)

  58. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10,

    Reinhart and #4 for Trouba is an overpay. You heard it here first.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    RUSS:
    Sekera Facing 2nd comp in BUF; LA
    7.95 HSCA/60

    Sekera facing 1st comp in
    BUF 11.80 HSCA/60
    CAR 12.83 HSCA/60 with that beauty faulk!
    EDM 12.04 HSCA/60

    He needs to be 2nd comp period!

    And Fayne was a 6.5 and 6.6 HDSCA/60 in NJ for two years. Why cant we get a guy like that to be the stud #1D

  60. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Reinhart and the 4th for a guy thats not even established. Thats crazy

  61. leadfarmer says:

    flygoalie:
    Hall to Islanders for Johnny Boychuck & #19 pick. Take Tkachuk with #4 & best available D @ 19.

    Thanks a lot. Now I have to clean my monitor.

  62. flygoalie says:

    #3 IYO creates more scoring chances going the wrong way than the right way. Tkachuk make you forget Hall in 2 years. JB is a career + player, RHD big body and decent shot. TAKE IT ALL DAY LONG.

  63. doritogrande says:

    I’m going to continue my rant a little bit.

    No more rants, get back to LFP or your fanbase might riot.

  64. Wonder Llama says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    Reinhart and the 4th for a guy thats not even established.Thats crazy

    Well, to be fair, Trouba’s a lot more established than Reinhart or DuBois, but I think your point still holds. The problem I had with the Reinhart deal in the first place was not that it was an overpay but that Chia did not acquire a Dman that he knew (not hoped) could play effectively this season. So please, whatever you do Mr. Chiarelli, make your deals or signings for players who are good to go right now, handedness be damned.

    P.S. It suddenly occurred to me this morning that Justin Schultz has a real shot at winning a Stanley Cup this year. And I’m not sure how I feel about that.

  65. treevojo says:

    I’m just wondering what your guys thoughts would be about trading #4 overall with the Arizona coyotes for last years #3 overall Dylan strome. Coyotes get to draft tkachuk. Mcdavid gets his best friend. Oilers get a replacement center for the eventual nuge for a rhd trade. Would oilers do it? Would coyotes do it? Would you do it?

  66. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    “Failk or other #1 D.”
    here is were you use one of these is not like the other.

    Scoring like a 3rd line forward is not a #1 D.
    that is a really shitty offensive forward.

    CAUSE HE DONT PLAY D!

    An on ice metric such as corsi is a measurement of a stat that for events that happen on the ice with 10 skaters and 2 goalies
    On ice metrics are more influenced by quality of teammates, quality of competition, coaching, playing style, and the other 9 skaters and are only marginally influenced by just one player.
    If on ice metrics were heavily influenced by one player, then we would not see huge flunctations with on ice metrics when players switch team, but we do.

    Here is a look at some Dmen who have switched teams and expereinced big swings in these two on ice metrics in the last couple of years.

    Jeff Petry played against top competition ( but also played with the best forwards) with the Oilers and did not have great numbers. With the Habs, he did not play top competition as much and his numbers showed very well.
    CF%
    EDM 14-15__MTL 15-16
    48.80%______54.60%
    HSCA/60
    EDM 14-15__MTL 15-16
    11.7_________9.8

    Kris Russell was a “possession black hole” with Calgary, but look what happens when he plays on a good possession team. One thing that should be noted is that when Dallas acquired him, they liked the fact the Russell was one of the better Dmen in the league at advancing the puck out of the zone. This stat is one of the advanced advanced stats from Sportlogig.
    CF%
    CGY 15-16__DAL 15-16*
    43.80%______51.00%
    HSCA/60
    CGY 15-16___DAL 15-16*
    12.3_________10.1
    * includes playoffs

    Christian Erhoff was a “poor possession player and left the gate open in the slot for opposing forwards” with the Sabres. But with the Pens, he cleaned up those issues, or was it that he played with a better team with the Pens and the numbers show this?
    CF%
    Buf 13-14__Pit 14-15
    46%_______51.50%
    HSCA/60
    Buf 13-14___Pit 14-15
    12.7_______10.2

    Mark Fayne is one of the reasons for this expose. In 13-14 with the Devils, a CF% of 55% and a HSCA/60 of 6.5 puts him in the 95th percentile ( putting these two metrics together). But on a team that is not good at possession, is more high event, Faynes numbers crumble.
    CF%
    NJ 13-14__EDM 14-15___EDM 15-16
    55.30%____46%_______49.30%
    HSCA/60
    NJ 13-14__EDM 14-15___EDM 15-16
    6.5_______11.6________12.2

    Keith Yandle. I put him in here because of his HSCA/60 numbers with Arizona and the Rangers in 14-15. This is a classic example that shows that HSCA/60 is more influeneced by team than it is by player. Arizona was a bad team, while the Rangers were a decent playoff team.
    CF%
    ARZ 13-14__ARZ 14-15__NYR 14-15*
    51.30%_____49.30%_____52.70%
    HSCA/60
    ARZ 13-14__ARZ 14-15___NYR 14-15*
    12.7________13.4_________8.7

    Francois Beauchemin. Some people think he is done. That might be part of it, but he went from one of best possession teams to the worst possession team ( Avs need a new coach). This is why I think Barrie is underrated when using on ice metrics, but that is for another story.
    CF%
    ANA 14-15___COL 15-16
    50.90%______43.20%
    HSCA/60
    ANA 14-15___COL 15-16
    10__________13.3

    Tyler Myers got absolutely destroyed in Buffalo, but in Winnipeg, he looks pretty good. Again classic example of the team having more influence with on ice metrics than the player.
    CF%
    BUF 14-15__WPG 14-15*__WPG 15-16
    34.10%_____49.40%_______52%
    HSCA/60
    BUF 14-15__WPG 14-15___WPG 15-16
    14.1________10.3_________10.8

    Zach Bogosian basically switched spots with Myers. Bogosian has pretty good numbers with the Jets and then gets destroyed with a bad Buffalo team.
    CF%
    WPG 14-15___BUF 14-15___BUF 15-16
    50.40%_______40.40%_____46.20%
    HSCA/60
    WPG 14-15___BUF 14-15___BUF 15-16
    9.6__________10.8________11.6

    Dougie Hamilton played on a very good possession team and deep team in Boston to a team in Calgary that was opposite. His on ice metrics reflect this.
    CF%
    BOS 14-15______CGY 15-16
    54.90%__________47.50%
    HSCA/60
    BOS 14-15______CGY 15-16
    10.5_____________12.7

    Seth Jones goes from playing 3rd pairing on a very good possesion team to playing 1st pairing on a bad team and his numbers reflect this. There were 5.8 more HSCA/60 with Columbus than with the Preds. Wow!
    CF%
    NSH 15-16_____CLB 15-16
    57.90%________49.50%
    HSCA/60
    NSH 15-16_____CLB 15-16
    8.3____________13.8

    Johnny Boychuk, did the wheels fall off? His numbers in Boston show a stud, and even last year with the Islanders, but this past year, his metrics were putrid.
    CF%
    BOS 13-14___NYI 14-15___NYI 15-16
    55%________55.40%_____48.60%
    HSCA/60
    BOS 13-14__NYI 14-15____NYI 15-16
    9.1_________11.6________11.1

    Nick Leddy tells me that Boychuk did not have his wheels fall. They played on a NYI team that had 48.9% CF% this year. Last year, they were 52.5%. Both players played on a strong possession team before they came to the Islanders. Islanders are a very high event team.
    CF%
    CHI 13-14___NYI 14-15____NYI 15-16
    57.10%____55.70%_______50.10%
    HSCA/60
    CHI13-14__NYI 14-15___NYI 15-16
    9.8_______10.4___________12

    Dion Phaneuf played on a Toronto team that last year had a 46.4% CF%, while this past year, Toronto had a 51.3% CF%. A new coach and playing style matters.
    CF%
    TOR 14-15___TOR 15-16___OTT 15-16
    45.20%____51.30%______49.50%
    HSCA/60
    TOR 14-15___TOR 15-16___OTT 15-16
    14.6________10.3_______11.5

    Andreji Sekera is the classic example of going from a very good possesion team to a poorer possession team and seeing his numbers faceplant. ( I really like him btw)
    CF%
    CAR 14-15___LA 14-15___EDM 15-16
    53%_________60.10%____48.90%
    HSCA/60
    CAR 14-15___LA 14-15___EDM 15-16
    12.6__________8_________12

    Roman Polak had terrible on ice metrics last year, but this past year with the Leafs and the Sharks his HSCA/60 numbers looked very well. Team effects matter.
    CF%
    TOR 14-15__TOR 15-16____SJ 15-16
    45.10%_____49.90%______48.10%
    HSCA/60
    TOR 14-15__TOR 15-16____SJ 15-16
    14.3________9.9__________9.6

    Having a good HSCA/60 is not just “box protection” by a Dman.
    *Having forwards who provide good back pressure help a Dman’s HDSCA/60 ( see Dougie Hamilton in Boston, not so much in Calgary)
    * Having a team that plays a very defensive oriented system helps a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( see Mark Fayne in NJ)
    * Having a team that endlessly cycles the puck in the offensive zone, limiting the amount of time the puck is in the defensive zone will provide a lower HDSCA/60 for a Dman ( any LA Dman)
    *Playing on a shitty team will blow up a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( see Buffalo Dman in 13-15)
    * A team that allows more odd man rushes will result in a higher HDSCA/60 ( this is a forward/team issue more than the Dman in question)
    *High event teams will result in Dman having higher HDSCA/60 ( NYI, Dal,)

    I’m in a rush and could add to this but my point is that HDSCA/60 and pretty much any on ice metric for any player, is more influenced by other players/team/systems than it is by just 1 player.

    I bet if we put Faulk on the LA Kings, somehow he would have great box protection.
    Conversely, if we put Luke Schenn ( who had a great HDSCA/60 with the Kings) on the Canes team, he would be leaving the gate open to the box.

  67. godot10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    godot10,

    Reinhart and #4 for Trouba is an overpay.You heard it here first.

    Fixing the D is probably going to require an overpay in assets or in money or in term. I try doing it without losing Nugent-Hopkins or Hall.

    Trouba for the #4, and last years’ #16 and #33 is about the compensation required for an offer sheet.
    Reinhart can play for the Jets this year as he slots in a position of lack of depth. I think Trouba is a better all around defensemen than Hamilton.

    If I were GM, Winnipeg would know the offer sheet is coming July 1, so the #4 and Reinhart is actually better compensation than the 3 draft picks they would have to wait till 2017 for.

    And I like Reinhart a lot, having been one of his biggest defenders.

  68. who says:

    Wolfie: I read your post last night and I agree on acquiring Trouba.But don’t make the mistake of trading the Hall cluster for younger players like Ehlers and Laine.It just pushes the timeline for winning back and it continues the perpetual rebuild.

    The Hall cluster is who you want to protect the McDavid group.There may need to be a piece or two added to make a trade work for both teams but you don’t need to send away players that are in their prime for younger players who will experience bumps and be unable to push the river without protection.

    Substitute Reinhart for Nurse if that’s you flavour… But your proposal just keeps the rebuild going.

    Pouliot for Trouba is pretty close to even for both teams.A more proven asset for the Jets vs a legit top 4 Dman with high upside…

    It’s similar to the rumoured Vatanen deal….

    If I thought Winnipeg would take Poulliot for Trouba I would do it in a heartbeat but I don’t think that is realistic. The ony reason I am saying Hall is that I hope it would entice them to swap the picks this year. If you want to substitute Eberle for Hall and Armia for Ehlers I would like that better but suspect it doesn’t get us Laine and in my mind he is the real prize.
    If we want to add to the defense I think one of the 6 mil guys has to go and my preference would be Eberle rather than Hall and Hall rather than Nuge.

  69. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    I know the general consensus is to not trade RNH for D help – that’s great. But if you do have to give to get, I remain concerned that the conventional mindset is RNH is preferred to go than Leon. I feel RNH is the asset you keep if you must give up a C as he is more complete and the perfect 2C behind McDavid in my mind. The jury is still very much out on Leon for me. If I split his NHL tenure into three segments – last year, first half this year and last half this year, it remains very much a question mark he can bring the level of game RNH can. He had a very successful streak at the start this year – awesome – but outside that window, its been very underwhelming. His WHC performance isn’t instilling recovering confidence for me. I want to keep Leon for sure, but if forced to push one off the plank, its Leon not RNH for me. Keep both if you can.

  70. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    Reinhart and the 4th for a guy thats not even established.Thats crazy

    Trouba is passing through the valley of doubt. Like Larsson eighteen months ago. This is the only time one is going to be able to get those guys. Larsson is basically an untouchable again.

    Trouba was played with a bad D partner in Stuart, or on the left side, with limited power play time because of Byfuglien, so his stats are depressed.

    He is a better all-around D than Hamilton.

  71. rickithebear says:

    85% of goa lat even come from med and High chance shots.

    yet your metrics do not align with SHSC area shots and Golaies requirement to make save!

    which makes your work pretty but avoisds getting to the meat of of the problem.

    You win with good HSCA D depth, Srong HSCA shot save%, and Strong even forward depth.
    3 years ago I presented even forward depth of teams.
    teams like CHI, NYR, TMP
    Strong D depth LAK, NYR, NJD, CHI, enough depth not to force D into situations they are not capable of handling.

    The Strong HSCA save% goalies Quick, Crawford, Lundquist, Bishop

    Hsca/60 the median of top 4 D is 17.25 EVTOI
    Meaning 3.479 Gm per 60 from the top 4 D
    85% of even goals come from the 1/2 even shots in game.
    That rae taken from the HSC area.

    top 10 D 8.10 HSCA/60 or 2.33 HSC shots per game.
    top 20 D 8.85 or 2.544 HSC shots per game
    20-40 D 9.52 or 2.736
    40- 60 D 9.95 or 2.860

    Bottom 10 13.59 or 3.907
    bottom 11-30 12.67 or 3.65 HSC shots per game.

    there is such a marked difrence in the demands on a goalie by volume of quality shots faced.

    If you would like to explain to me how the best HSCA D depth gets in the playoff final 8 and most of the worst HSCA D depth misses the playoffs.

    Your position is Team success occurs without it being the HSCA D depth or Quality of HSC area save % from the goalie.

    I would love to know what it is!

  72. russ99 says:

    rickithebear:
    RUSS:
    Sekera Facing 2nd comp in BUF; LA
    7.95 HSCA/60

    Sekera facing 1st comp in
    BUF 11.80 HSCA/60
    CAR 12.83 HSCA/60 with that beauty faulk!
    EDM 12.04 HSCA/60

    He needs to be 2nd comp period!

    That may be the case, but we currently don’t have anyone better.

    And before you anoint Klefbom the second coming of Karlsson, those 30 games isn’t a lot to go by, and there was some significant chaos when away from the wall in the D-zone, despite what HSCA/60 says. Not to mention the “special equipment” concerns for next year.

    Sekera is a better all around defenseman today. Give Oskar easier sorties with a good partner and he may be better soon.

  73. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10,

    The way Trouba has approached RFA with the Jets leads me to believe he is either a Prima Donna or doesn’t like Winnipeg.

    That may or may not be the case. My gut tells me it is, god knows I’ve been wrong before.

    I’ll take him on my team. I’d be willing to pay for him. But not if he’s going to cost me $6million to lock him up for term or knowing he’ll take 1 year contracts until he can get out of dodge.

    If I could get him on the Klefbom contract I’d take him at the price you mentioned.

  74. Chachi says:

    flygoalie:
    Hall to Islanders for Johnny Boychuck & #19 pick. Take Tkachuk with #4 & best available D @ 19.

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

    The least the Islanders could do in that scenario is throw in their equivalent of Linus Omark.

    Wow.

  75. Pouzar says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: The way Trouba has approached RFA with the Jets leads me to believe he is either a Prima Donna or doesn’t like Winnipeg.

    He isn’t long for WPG. I said the same thing about E Kane 3 yrs ago and my buddies killed me for it…”future captain of the Jets” they said.

    That’s one of the worries I have but I leave it at that.

  76. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: An on ice metric such as corsi is a measurement of a stat that for events that happen on the ice with 10 skaters and 2 goalies
    On ice metrics are more influenced by quality of teammates, quality of competition, coaching, playing style, and the other 9 skaters and are only marginally influenced by just one player.
    If on ice metrics were heavily influenced by one player, then we would not see huge flunctations with on ice metrics when players switch team, but we do.

    John what athelete does not know this.

    I played complex stop and start 11 and 12 man games. and excelled.

    I played a complex 11 man game were you were rewarded for attacking the net.

    I found my natural calling in a very complex 15 man game.

    but when you practice at an elite level you concentrate on system interaction related to a desired out come.

    In all the sports I played it was unit defence and attack.

    But practices could be broken down into interactions.

    what the F……. does a turnover in O or neutral zone got to do with a dman’s def. play.
    and
    the 4th line offensive ability any D man sure as heck is not as influential as the usually almost allways more efficient finisher of shot forwards.

    85% of Goals come from med and high chance shots in that small box/ arrow/ cup in front of the net.
    D are expected to attack opposition to perimeter of the box/arrow/cup. to go beyond that is def suicide.

    As the defence starts to fail, the D are expected to collapse to the box to provide Goalie a clear path and forwards to collapse to slightly below perimeter.
    But the High success shot areas are defended by the D.

    So in practice you better see the defence of the box out training.

    Comp is the measure of oppositions EVp/60 success rate . the better the EVP/60 forward faced the higher the comp.
    you do not want to take the game beyond this basic measure when establishing comp.

    so you do not look at the whole of the game.
    you look at that practiced segment.

    Defending the Net is HSCA period.

    CF% is a measure that dependent on the teamates you play with.
    The same EVP/60 production used for the teammates value.
    since D men are largely 4th to bottom 4th in production at EVP/60.
    Who do you think largely drives the teammate #?

    since Desjardins first caome out with this I broke down EVP/60 and EVGA/60 into

    upper, middle, lower:
    comp, teamates, Zonestart into 96 groups that defined a EVP/60 and EVGF/60 expectation for forwards in each group situation.
    EX. upper 1st comp; 4th teamates, less than 35% ZS; getting a GF.

    I paired that with a D mans situation.
    Comp, Teamates, ZS to get a GA.

    but 6 months in With Discussions with many on here relative to GA being about goalies and nothing about D.
    God I loved those discussions.
    Looking at langes charts I Broke it down into HSCA and Goalie Save%

    So CF% serves as zero measure for me when it comes to Defnce of Net. and teamates largely a measure of Off Production.

    I look at HSCA by D relative to comp faced and Zone start. to value them.

    Corsi as a measure of a D is just awful.

  77. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    RNH-Yak and the 4th for Barrie and Duchene

  78. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Deal.

    Duchene and Fayne for Subban.

  79. Магия 10 says:

    The hidden surcharge on any D transaction is the expansion draft rules. And things look a lot different if they is say 1 player lost in 2017 or 2 lost in 2018 or whatever.

    The only trades not subject to that tax would return the D that would be exposed by the added D.

  80. rickithebear says:

    russ99: That may be the case, but we currently don’t have anyone better.

    And before you anoint Klefbom the second coming of Karlsson, those 30 games isn’t a lot to go by, and there was some significant chaos when away from the wall in the D-zone, despite what HSCA/60 says. Not to mention the “special equipment” concerns for next year.

    Sekera is a better all around defenseman today. Give Oskar easier sorties with a good partner and he may be better soon.

    Klefbom the Hound was released by Nelson in mid jan of 2015.
    he racked 1.24 EVP/60 for that period. that was a top 7 pace for 14-15.

    He was 1.08 this year in 30gm a top 20 pace while still balancing top 60 HSCA facing 1st comp.

    Sekera is a Bottom 20 HSCA D against 1st comp all thru his career.
    A Sub 8.00 when facing 2nd comp.

    I rather Try someone who might succeed at 1st comp with Klefbom and
    play sekera were he gets top 5 in game HSCA.

    I really hope PC chases the college AUFA he brought into the Boston system and thought enough of to re up him.

  81. doritogrande says:

    The way Trouba has approached RFA with the Jets leads me to believe he is either a Prima Donna or doesn’t like Winnipeg.

    Kid’s got capital D demons. Take a hard pass on him, he’s already hit his peak.

  82. russ99 says:

    rickithebear: Klefbom the Hound was released by Nelson in mid jan of 2015.
    he racked 1.24 EVP/60 for that period. that was a top 7 pace for 14-15.

    He was 1.08 this year in 30gm a top 20 pace while still balancing top 60 HSCA facing 1st comp.

    Sekera is a Bottom 20 HSCA D against 1st comp all thru his career.
    A Sub 8.00 when facing 2nd comp.

    I rather Try someone who might succeed at 1st comp with Klefbom and
    play sekera were he gets top 5 in game HSCA.

    I really hope PC chases the college AUFA he brought into the Boston system and thought enough of tore up him.

    I have no issue with Klefbom’s offense, but to turn the corner and become a playoff team, we need better overall team defense.

    Would rather acquire players to make that easier without losing offense, and not play a younger player over his head in the lineup. Thought that would stop after MacT, but nope, look at Nurse.

  83. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: John what athelete does not know this.

    I played complex stop and start 11 and 12 man games. and excelled.

    I played a complex 11 man game were you were rewarded for attacking the net.

    I found my natural calling in a very complex 15 man game.

    but when you practice at an elite level you concentrate on system interaction related to a desired out come.

    In all the sports I played it was unit defence and attack.

    But practices could be broken down into interactions.

    what the F……. does a turnover in O or neutral zone got to do with a dman’s def. play.
    and
    the 4th line offensive ability any D man sure as heck is not as influential as the usually almost allways more efficient finisher of shot forwards.

    85% of Goals come from med and high chance shots in that small box/ arrow/ cup in front of the net.
    D are expected to attack opposition to perimeter of the box/arrow/cup. to go beyond that is def suicide.

    As the defence starts to fail, the D are expected to collapse to the box to provide Goalie a clear path and forwards to collapse to slightly below perimeter.
    But the High success shot areas are defended by the D.

    So in practice you better see the defence of the box out training.

    Comp is the measure of oppositions EVp/60 success rate . the better the EVP/60 forward faced the higher the comp.
    you do not want to take the game beyond this basic measure when establishing comp.

    so you do not look at the whole of the game.
    you look at that practiced segment.

    Defending the Net is HSCA period.

    CF% is a measure that dependent on the teamatesyou play with.
    The same EVP/60 production used for the teammates value.
    since D men are largely 4th to bottom 4th in production at EVP/60.
    Who do you think largely drives the teammate #?

    since Desjardins first caome out with this I broke down EVP/60 and EVGA/60 into

    upper, middle, lower:
    comp, teamates, Zonestart into 96 groups that defined a EVP/60 and EVGF/60 expectation for forwards in each group situation.
    EX. upper 1st comp; 4th teamates, less than 35% ZS; getting a GF.

    I paired that with a D mans situation.
    Comp, Teamates, ZS to get a GA.

    but 6 months in With Discussions with many on here relative to GA being about goalies and nothing about D.
    God I loved those discussions.
    Looking at langes charts I Broke it down into HSCAand Goalie Save%

    So CF% serves as zero measure for me when it comes to Defnce of Net. and teamates largely a measure of Off Production.

    I look at HSCA by D relative to comp faced and Zone start. to value them.

    Corsi as a measure of a D is just awful.

    I’m not using corsi as a measurement of a Dman.

    I showed how corsi and HDSCA/60 can wildly vary for players that switch teams.

    If HSCA/60 or any on ice metric was a good and true way to value a Dman then Mark Faynes HDSCA/60 in New Jersey should be the same as in Edmonton, but it’s not. And I showed many other numerous examples.

    Using HDSCA/60 as a small metric in the overall valuation of a Dman is fine. But context is needed in how that Dman got that number. And like I said before, the other 9 skaters affect the HDSCA/60 more than the 1 player.

  84. godot10 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    RNH-Yak and the 4th for Barrie and Duchene

    You can probably get Vatanen without giving up either Nugent-Hopkins or the #4OV. Nugent-Hopkins is signed for a lot longer than Duschene.

  85. kinger_OIL says:

    – on the whole Trade X for Y defender. I find much of the posting frustrating. As Cash said, its a question of efficiency.

    – Simple Math for illustration:

    Lets say RNH @ $6mm = 1,200 points
    Lets say Nikitin @ 4MM = 10 points

    This year for same 10MM, I can get say:
    Demers @ 5mm = 1,000 points
    Backes @ 5mm = 800 points.

    We used the same $10mm,, we have a 33% gain in points created.

    *note my numbers are complete nonsense, for illustrative purposes only

    – that folks is how modern hockey works. The whole: “you don’t give away top-2 C’s blah blah blah” is just gibberish

    – “hockeynomics” is exactly as outlined. Each player has a mathematical number assigned in the context of contract, performance, term, variance, upside/downside capture, etc.

    – The better the model, the better efficiency you are going to have gaming the system, and building the optimal roster.

    – So back to Nuge: people forget his value is based on many things: his salary, his performance, his term, the marginal replacement value of his performance. In a cap world, his “performance” is only part of his value to the composition of the team.

  86. leadfarmer says:

    If people try to say that one player is better than another by using HDSCA/60 then the stat is no better than all those people that have been trying to say that Weber is not very good because of poor Corsi. If you are 0 in the +/- HDSC battle for the Oilers you are a good defenseman. If you are 0 in the +/- HDSC battle for the Sharks then you are a terrible defenseman

  87. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: I’m not using corsi as a measurement of a Dman.

    I showed how corsi and HDSCA/60 can wildly vary for players that switch teams.

    If HSCA/60 or any on ice metric was a good and true way to value a Dman then Mark Faynes HDSCA/60 in New Jersey should be the same as in Edmonton, but it’s not. And I showed many other numerous examples.

    Using HDSCA/60 as a small metric in the overall valuation of a Dman is fine. But context is needed in how that Dman got that number. And like I said before, the other 9 skaters affect the HDSCA/60 more than the 1 player.

    johnny!

    That was not specifically you!

    That is on Mass.

    In 11-12 Fayne was the Def Anchor on a Cup finals NJ team.
    He came over and got the best HSCA since 07-08 facing 1st comp.

    Klefbom has become our 1st comp option.
    and
    they had a high ratio of 2 or less HSCA games paired together.

    Fayne played under
    Deboer. who has made it clear he is a superior Def Coach than Tmac.
    cannot F up a top PP unit like Tmac did to Nelsons #3 pace PP.

    Moving EC and West can see up to a 20% drop in performance.

    That is why I want to stay on the WC side when chasing D.
    12-13 to 15-16
    Brodin 1st comp top 20 career HSCA
    lindholm 1st comp top 30 HSCA D
    Vatanen 3rd comp top 35 HSCA D
    do not like his comp faced.
    or his Ference size in the WC. 5’10’ 183lb

    Though I will chance a EC D that covers all aspects of even play and PK.
    that is why I do not want
    Barrie, Demers who cannot defend 3rd comp!
    and are no better than miller evp/60, PK
    UFA or assets to get.
    I am not investing assets in a Ference sized WC D that has only proven he is able to handle protected comp.

    UFA before trade. Period!

  88. Showerhead says:

    Water Fire: Put this way you are correct. They don’t need to trade anybody.

    It would be a thing of beauty that would involve a lot of good fortune I think to get balance and enough performance per contract as there would be a lot of low paid players that couldn’t have bonus rich contracts.

    This reads as a kind way of calling my logic understandable but unrealistic. I appreciate that – thanks for the thought.

    It may be unlikely that Edmonton suddenly begins to dominate Euro/college procurement as well as brings multiple late round draft picks to fruition but I still like to think as if it’s possible. In my mind the only true untouchables are McDavid and Hall but I like the team a lot better if they can keep Drai/RNH and suck up the cap management challenges they bring.

    I also like to trot out the “RNH/Eberle/Hall make less than 2006 Ryan Smyth” because I feel that a lot of us who have been around since the 1st salary cap still think about contracts in the terms of that era. Six million dollars for one of the very best LW in the game is not just a value contract – it’s phenomenal – and I don’t think we acknowledge that enough.

    Anyhow, thanks again for voicing your understanding and your assessment so cordially.

  89. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    If people try to say that one player is better than another by using HDSCA/60 then the stat is no better than all those people that have been trying to say that Weber is not very good because of poor Corsi.If you are 0 in the +/- HDSC battle for the Oilers you are a good defenseman.If you are 0 in the +/- HDSC battle for the Sharks then you are a terrible defenseman

    Weber is a fine defenseman, his Corsi is a reflection of the minutes he plays. As with all of these measures, context is important.

  90. Showerhead says:

    doritogrande:
    I’m going to continue my rant a little bit.

    No more rants, get back to LFP or your fanbase might riot.

    HA. What a hilarious and unexpected convergence of two different lives. Glad to see you kicking around here, dg!

  91. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: Weber is a fine defenseman, his Corsi is a reflection of the minutes he plays. As with all of these measures, context is important.

    I half wonder whether Weber is the guy Chia has up his sleeve. Chia seems pretty confident he has something in the bag.

    And NSH can’t be happy with the amount they are paying Weber given they have an internal budget. They have to pay Forsburg and Gaustad and a few others. Given the results yesterday, they might be more inclined to trade him for some more firepower up front and cap flexibility.

    He doesn’t seem to have a NTC.

  92. Магия 10 says:

    Just a reminder for all and sundry pitching proposals to bring in two D:

    Your trade proposals should include sending out 2 of Davidson, Nurse and Reinhart. Because at the expansion draft you’ll have to protect Sekera and Klefbom and the 2 you bring in.

  93. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: As with all of these measures, context is important.

    ~ Asking for a friend. Where can we get Context/60 or relContext/60? ~

  94. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: An on ice metric such as corsi is a measurement of a stat that for events that happen on the ice with 10 skaters and 2 goalies
    On ice metrics are more influenced by quality of teammates, quality of competition, coaching, playing style, and the other 9 skaters and are only marginally influenced by just one player.
    If on ice metrics were heavily influenced by one player, then we would not see huge flunctations with on ice metrics when players switch team, but we do.

    Here is a look at some Dmen who have switched teams and expereinced big swings in these two on ice metrics in the last couple of years.

    Jeff Petry played against top competition ( but also played with the best forwards) with the Oilers and did not have great numbers.With the Habs, he did not play top competition as much and his numbers showed very well.
    CF%
    EDM 14-15__MTL 15-16
    48.80%______54.60%
    HSCA/60
    EDM 14-15__MTL 15-16
    11.7_________9.8

    Kris Russell was a “possession black hole” with Calgary, but look what happens when he plays on a good possession team.One thing that should be noted is that when Dallas acquired him, they liked the fact the Russell was one of the better Dmen in the league at advancing the puck out of the zone.This stat is one of the advanced advanced stats from Sportlogig.
    CF%
    CGY 15-16__DAL 15-16*
    43.80%______51.00%
    HSCA/60
    CGY 15-16___DAL 15-16*
    12.3_________10.1
    * includes playoffs

    Christian Erhoff was a “poor possession player and left the gate open in the slot for opposing forwards” with the Sabres.But with the Pens, he cleaned up those issues, or was it that he played with a better team with the Pens and the numbers show this?
    CF%
    Buf 13-14__Pit 14-15
    46%_______51.50%
    HSCA/60
    Buf 13-14___Pit 14-15
    12.7_______10.2

    Mark Fayne is one of the reasons for this expose.In 13-14 with the Devils, a CF% of 55% and a HSCA/60 of 6.5 puts him in the 95th percentile ( putting these two metrics together).But on a team that is not good at possession, is more high event, Faynes numbers crumble.
    CF%
    NJ 13-14__EDM 14-15___EDM 15-16
    55.30%____46%_______49.30%
    HSCA/60
    NJ 13-14__EDM 14-15___EDM 15-16
    6.5_______11.6________12.2

    Keith Yandle.I put him in here because of his HSCA/60 numbers with Arizona and the Rangers in 14-15.This is a classic example that shows that HSCA/60 is more influeneced by team than it is by player.Arizona was a bad team, while the Rangers were a decent playoff team.
    CF%
    ARZ 13-14__ARZ 14-15__NYR 14-15*
    51.30%_____49.30%_____52.70%
    HSCA/60
    ARZ 13-14__ARZ 14-15___NYR 14-15*
    12.7________13.4_________8.7

    Francois Beauchemin.Some people think he is done.That might be part of it, but he went from one of best possession teams to the worst possession team ( Avs need a new coach).This is why I think Barrie is underrated when using on ice metrics, but that is for another story.
    CF%
    ANA 14-15___COL 15-16
    50.90%______43.20%
    HSCA/60
    ANA 14-15___COL 15-16
    10__________13.3

    Tyler Myers got absolutely destroyed in Buffalo, but in Winnipeg, he looks pretty good.Again classic example of the team having more influence with on ice metrics than the player.
    CF%
    BUF 14-15__WPG 14-15*__WPG 15-16
    34.10%_____49.40%_______52%
    HSCA/60
    BUF 14-15__WPG 14-15___WPG 15-16
    14.1________10.3_________10.8

    Zach Bogosian basically switched spots with Myers.Bogosian has pretty good numbers with the Jets and then gets destroyed with a bad Buffalo team.
    CF%
    WPG 14-15___BUF 14-15___BUF 15-16
    50.40%_______40.40%_____46.20%
    HSCA/60
    WPG 14-15___BUF 14-15___BUF 15-16
    9.6__________10.8________11.6

    Dougie Hamilton played on a very good possession team and deep team in Boston to a team in Calgary that was opposite.His on ice metrics reflect this.
    CF%
    BOS 14-15______CGY 15-16
    54.90%__________47.50%
    HSCA/60
    BOS 14-15______CGY 15-16
    10.5_____________12.7

    Seth Jones goes from playing 3rd pairing on a very good possesion team to playing 1st pairing on a bad team and his numbers reflect this.There were 5.8 more HSCA/60 with Columbus than with the Preds.Wow!
    CF%
    NSH 15-16_____CLB 15-16
    57.90%________49.50%
    HSCA/60
    NSH 15-16_____CLB 15-16
    8.3____________13.8

    Johnny Boychuk, did the wheels fall off?His numbers in Boston show a stud, and even last year with the Islanders, but this past year, his metrics were putrid.
    CF%
    BOS 13-14___NYI 14-15___NYI 15-16
    55%________55.40%_____48.60%
    HSCA/60
    BOS 13-14__NYI 14-15____NYI 15-16
    9.1_________11.6________11.1

    Nick Leddy tells me that Boychuk did not have his wheels fall.They played on a NYI team that had 48.9% CF% this year.Last year, they were 52.5%.Both players played on a strong possession team before they came to the Islanders.Islanders are a very high event team.
    CF%
    CHI 13-14___NYI 14-15____NYI 15-16
    57.10%____55.70%_______50.10%
    HSCA/60
    CHI13-14__NYI 14-15___NYI 15-16
    9.8_______10.4___________12

    Dion Phaneuf played on a Toronto team that last year had a 46.4% CF%, while this past year, Toronto had a 51.3% CF%. A new coach and playing style matters.
    CF%
    TOR 14-15___TOR 15-16___OTT 15-16
    45.20%____51.30%______49.50%
    HSCA/60
    TOR 14-15___TOR 15-16___OTT 15-16
    14.6________10.3_______11.5

    Andreji Sekera is the classic example of going from a very good possesion team to a poorer possession team and seeing his numbers faceplant.( I really like him btw)
    CF%
    CAR 14-15___LA 14-15___EDM 15-16
    53%_________60.10%____48.90%
    HSCA/60
    CAR 14-15___LA 14-15___EDM 15-16
    12.6__________8_________12

    Roman Polak had terrible on ice metrics last year, but this past year with the Leafs and the Sharks his HSCA/60 numbers looked very well.Team effects matter.
    CF%
    TOR 14-15__TOR 15-16____SJ 15-16
    45.10%_____49.90%______48.10%
    HSCA/60
    TOR 14-15__TOR 15-16____SJ 15-16
    14.3________9.9__________9.6

    Having a good HSCA/60 is not just “box protection” by a Dman.
    *Having forwards who provide good back pressure help a Dman’s HDSCA/60 ( see Dougie Hamilton in Boston, not so much in Calgary)
    * Having a team that plays a very defensive oriented system helps a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( see Mark Fayne in NJ)
    * Having a team that endlessly cycles the puck in the offensive zone, limiting the amount of time the puck is in the defensive zone will provide a lower HDSCA/60 for a Dman ( any LA Dman)
    *Playing on a shitty team will blow up a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( see Buffalo Dman in 13-15)
    * A team that allows more odd man rushes will result in a higher HDSCA/60 ( this is a forward/team issue more than the Dman in question)
    *High event teams will result in Dman having higher HDSCA/60 ( NYI, Dal,)

    I’m in a rush and could add to this but my point is that HDSCA/60 and pretty much any on ice metric for any player, is more influenced by other players/team/systems than it is by just 1 player.

    I bet if we put Faulk on the LA Kings, somehow he would have great box protection.
    Conversely, if we put Luke Schenn ( who had a great HDSCA/60 with the Kings) on the Canes team, he would be leaving the gate open to the box.

    FIRETRUCK!!

  95. Woodguy says:

    For the record:

    I do not think that DrySaddle is ready to be the C on Hall’s line.

    That line was only up to the usual Hall standard when RNH was C and DrySaddle was RW.

    Was “ok” when Saddle was C and Purcell was RW, but not good.

    Was not good with Saddle at C and random at RW.

    That being said, I trade RNH for Faulk today if that deal is offered.

    Get a better RW for 4-29 and suffer the growing pains, because I think Faulk is worth it.

  96. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: I half wonder whether Weber is the guy Chia has up his sleeve. Chia seems pretty confident he has something in the bag.

    And NSH can’t be happy with the amount they are paying Weber given they have an internal budget. They have to pay Forsburg and Gaustad and a few others. Given the results yesterday, they might be more inclined to trade him for some more firepower up front and cap flexibility.

    He doesn’t seem to have a NTC.

    Yep. He certainly fits the Chiarelli template.

  97. LoDog says:

    Ducey: I half wonder whether Weber is the guy Chia has up his sleeve. Chia seems pretty confident he has something in the bag.

    And NSH can’t be happy with the amount they are paying Weber given they have an internal budget. They have to pay Forsburg and Gaustad and a few others. Given the results yesterday, they might be more inclined to trade him for some more firepower up front and cap flexibility.

    He doesn’t seem to have a NTC.

    I think that is a very real possibility. I fully expect that whatever trade happens it will be surprising.

  98. godot10 says:

    Ducey: I half wonder whether Weber is the guy Chia has up his sleeve. Chia seems pretty confident he has something in the bag.

    And NSH can’t be happy with the amount they are paying Weber given they have an internal budget. They have to pay Forsburg and Gaustad and a few others. Given the results yesterday, they might be more inclined to trade him for some more firepower up front and cap flexibility.

    He doesn’t seem to have a NTC.

    Weber has a 14-year contract for $110 million dollars, with 10 years remaining. Nashville has already paid $56 million of the $110. Over half. Going forward Weber is a bargain player for them.

    On July 1, they will have paid $64 million of the $110, nearly 60%.

    On July 2nd, in actual dollars for a budget team, Weber will have 10 years left on his contract and will only be owed $46 million dollars….an uber bargain player for Nashville.

  99. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    For the record:

    I do not think that DrySaddle is ready to be the C on Hall’s line.

    That line was only up to the usual Hall standard when RNH was C and DrySaddle was RW.

    Was “ok” when Saddle was C and Purcell was RW, but not good.

    Was not good with Saddle at C and random at RW.

    That being said, I trade RNH for Faulk today if that deal is offered.

    Get a better RW for 4-29 and suffer the growing pains, because I think Faulk is worth it.

    I would make the trade also, but I don’t and can’t believe that Carolina would trade Justin Faulk.

  100. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Using HDSCA/60 as a small metric in the overall valuation of a Dman is fine. But context is needed in how that Dman got that number. And like I said before, the other 9 skaters affect the HDSCA/60 more than the 1 player.

    this statement is a generic as it gets!

    We can say this for every stat we discuss on here.

    You break down the play to segments.

    Corsi the puck is released;
    how is it influenced.
    1. volume
    2. D partner
    3. who is shooting

    What does a d influence.
    1. distance. try not to let it deep into HSCA area or not at all.
    2. blocks
    3. targeting force misses
    4. open or closed hole shot.

    HSCA/60 measures the number of shots in a distance area.
    shots being
    Corsi – (bocks + misses) = shots.
    when first trying to identify a d.
    1. I look at HSCA.
    2. I then look at a dman’s shots/corsi. A major measure of D affect. shows what % of corsi are blocked or miss. lower the ratio the better.
    3. look at shot charts to
    -identify shot distance while on the ice.
    -Ratio of goals on each d partners side.
    4. look at goal video to exclude non valid data

    There ae 2 critical identifying numbers that start the whole look at a d.
    1. HSCA/60
    or
    2. Shots/corsi

    I find HSCA/60 a quick reference.
    But you could combine the 2.

    (HSCA/60)/(corsi/60)

    This removes Blocks-Misses and non HSCA area shots from the equation.

    What I do draw from the repeated suggestions on here.
    is when we take all these influenced stats.
    the most critical need from a D is 4th line level scoring while abandoning the net.

    and

    one of the 2 best HSCA d in the game coming to a WC team with 6 bottom 60 HSCA D to play with has nothing to do with the reduction of Performance.

    Kevin Miller Please!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVgXdGB7CWM

    http://video.bruins.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=542764

    He has what PC might have been trying to find in Gryba.

  101. Woodguy says:

    godot10: I would make the trade also, but I don’t and can’t believe that Carolina would trade Justin Faulk.

    Neither do I.

    What’s got everyone amped up is that Gregor said he talked someone in the CAR org and they said they’d move him for the right deal.

    No idea if they see RNH is the right deal but Rask/Staal is really, really thin.

  102. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Weber has a 14-year contract for $110 million dollars, with 10 years remaining.Nashville has already paid $56 million of the $110.Over half.Going forward Weber is a bargain player for them.

    On July 1, they will have paid $64 million of the $110,nearly 60%.

    On July 2nd, in actual dollars for a budget team, Weber will have 10 years left on his contract and will only be owed $46 million dollars….an uber bargain player for Nashville.

    Cap recapture on that contract is a real bitch too.

  103. Rondo says:

    Stephen Burtch ‏@SteveBurtch
    I honestly don’t get why we keep getting told how “solid” Weber and Josi are defensively. They produce points. They aren’t great defensively

  104. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Yep. He certainly fits the Chiarelli template.

    Chia said last fall he wasn’t looking to add players over 30 and he’s 31 in August.

    I hope he stays true to his word.

  105. Ducey says:

    godot10: Weber has a 14-year contract for $110 million dollars, with 10 years remaining.Nashville has already paid $56 million of the $110.Over half.Going forward Weber is a bargain player for them.

    On July 1, they will have paid $64 million of the $110,nearly 60%.

    On July 2nd, in actual dollars for a budget team, Weber will have 10 years left on his contract and will only be owed $46 million dollars….an uber bargain player for Nashville.

    You have you math wrong there, sir. $70 million over 10 years is what is owed.

    He is owed $54 million in salary. On top of that he is owed $16 million in signing bonuses. They will have paid $8 million of that bonus by July 2, but they may not want to. Trading him at the draft would certainly allow them to avoid it.

    $20 million next year followed by another $20 million the following year might be too much for a player that has not got them to a western final and that they may not see in the same way they once did.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/players/1222

  106. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Kevin Miller and Brett Bellmore. New top pairing. Done and done.

  107. kinger_OIL says:

    rickithebear,

    – I assume you are talking about Kevan Miller of Bruins: I agree he’d be great #3RD: put him with Davidson, and you have amazing to elite and cheap 3rd pairing, that could move up. And you get him cheap. They don’t like him in Boston:

    http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2016/5/5/11520688/kevan-miller-report-card-showed-little-growth-in-2015-16

    Sekera- good guy, don’t care if he is L/R
    Klef-good guy RD
    Davidson-Miller
    Gryba
    Fayne

    – That’s a vet D, great bottom and keeps the Griff/Nurse in AHL, sets up trade next deadline for D, with some surplus RD to make the stats people happy

  108. godot10 says:

    Ducey: You have you math wrong there, sir. $70 million over 10 years is what is owed.

    He is owed $54 million in salary. On top of that he is owed $16 million in signing bonuses. They will have paid $8 million of that by July 2, but they may not want to. Trading him at the draft would certainly allow them to avoid it.

    $20 million next year followed by another $20 million the following year might be too much for a player that has not got them to a western final and that they may not see in the same way they once did.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/players/1222

    You, sir, are wrong.

    Weber has 10 years left on his contract, and owed $54 million in total, $38 million in salary, $16 million in signing bonuses.

    On July 2, it will be 10 years left on his contract, and owed $46 million in total, $38 million in salary, $8 million in signing bonuses.

    Awaiting your retraction.

  109. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    You’re smart enough to know you should use relative measures.

    Give us all a break and use them please.

  110. fifthcartel says:

    Boudreau not mentioning Brodin when he talks about Minnesota’s defense. Don’t do it, Chiarelli.

  111. Ducey says:

    godot10: You, sir, are wrong.

    Weber has 10 years left on his contract, and owed $54 million in total, $38 million in salary, $16 million in signing bonuses.

    On July 2, it will be 10 years left on his contract, and owed $46 million in total, $38 million in salary, $8 million in signing bonuses.

    Awaiting your retraction.

    I see. $14 million a year includes the $13 million in signing bonus.

    I note you continue to frame it as of July 2.

    You still seem to ignore the fact they may want to avoid paying $12 million a year for each of the next 2 years. The may amortize over the length of the contract like you have suggested or they may be more inclined to just rid themselves of an onerous contract.

  112. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Boudreau not mentioning Brodin when he talks about Minnesota’s defense. Don’t do it, Chiarelli.

    I fear that

  113. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Buy high sell Low, thats the motto of this team. Wild will want a lot and the only way I pay a lot is if Suter is coming with him.

  114. su_dhillon says:

    This has probably been brought up here before but I just noticed the Faulk extension was back loaded. Hurricanes paid 2.5 last year and 3.5 this year it jumps to 5.5 for the upcoming year and 6 rest of the way. I dont know if it was structured like that for a reason but if they are going to trade him for a guy making $6M, it makes more sense now then it did last year.

  115. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    Same, but it’d be incredibly odd. I could understand acquiring a left-shot if they were a really good puck-mover and PP guy, but Brodin is definitely not that guy.

    He doesn’t even have any counting stats that would entice anyone with single digit points and #4 ice time. He’d be an extremely ‘defensive’ option.

  116. sliderule says:

    If you are going to trade any of the top six forwards it’s got to be Leon.

    It’s time that we quit making excuses .If he was injured the oilers wouldn’t let him play

    In his own end he is slow as molasses and doesn’t react and will be exposed at center.

    He will be able to play wing but he is not a good forechecker and Tmac wants to play in the other teams end.

    In the two games I watched the German coach didn’t play him on power play.

    It’s time to cash out on him before they have another draft failure they can’t bail on.

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