ETHAN RIFLES

I always look for the players who can make and take a pass. If you watch a game from 1975, and compare it to today, there are more players now who are not expert passers than 40 years ago. Why? Well, teams ran three lines and two pairings (mostly) back then and the pace of the game was slower. Longer shifts meant a more leisurely pace. You know I am not one to wax poetic about the olden days, but the biggest issue facing NHL teams—and sweet Jesus the Oilers are the poster team—is the tape-to-tape outlet pass on the fly while keeping momentum. Making an outlet pass in 1975 was a walk in the park, making one in 2016 is threading the needle. It is a major component for the modern defender.

ETHAN BEAR

The Oilers took him No. 124 overall. Craig Button had him No. 77. “There is a lot of ability in his game to impact in a positive way. He gets where he needs to be, he never gets himself in trouble. He’s a body-on-body one-on-one competitor. If you want to play against him in the defensive zone, you’ll have to earn everything you get. He can get the puck out of the zone well, he knows what his options are, doesn’t get himself into trouble. Smart player.”

This blog first mentioned Ethan Bear in February 2015, a few months before he was drafted by the Oilers. Craig MacTavish was on a scouting trip and we got tipped off about it. I was so familiar with him at the time, called him Nathan Bear.

  • He’s 5.11, 204 and he kind of sounds like an Oilers pick (their smaller blue are usually offensive types like Hunt and Laleggia) and the skating and transition game are interesting. Fifth round pick? Seems like a reasonable bet.

By draft day I had him No. 38 overall, and he was a flat out bargain when the Oilers took him at No. 124 overall—in the fifth round. Sounds like he will sign soon, and I am happy for him, will cheer like hell. The thing is, this is just the beginning. If Ethan Bear signs that deal and works very hard, he might make the Oilers in the fall of 2019. It is a terribly long way. He has ripped up the blacktop available to him, now Bear needs to work even harder. The early returns are very good.

Cam Talbot is doing well for Canada at the WHCs, good to see him have success. I have been wondering about hiring James Reimer as the No. 2 G for next season—doubt he would accept the role, but it is worth discussing. My place holder name is Jhonas Enroth, we will have to visit this before free agency.

I was looking at goalies for the draft before going to bed last night (look, I am a real jet-setter!) and may have been staring at the names for too long. I dreamed that Peter Chiarelli drafted goalie Steve Desroschers from Innisfail of a league whose name I did not catch at No. 4 overall. It was not a good dream. There is no goalie with that name available in the draft this year, but I plan on checking all of the CHL later today.

hallnugebs

  • Fluto Shinzawa, Boston Globe: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins might be a player of interest for Boudreau and Wild GM Chuck Fletcher. In turn, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in place, Edmonton is in a position of strength at center. This may be the time for the Oilers to deploy Nugent-Hopkins as trade collateral to improve their defense. Source

Before we discuss this, want to point out that expecting McDavid and Draisaitl to cut through the Western Conference’s best opposition at this point (they are both too young) is folly. Hell, Nuge took on too much too soon and that may have impacted his development—why would the Oilers do it with their current duo?

That said, and I am in no way saying RNH is heading out of town, if you are going to deal him then bringing in a veteran C who can handle those minutes is vital. In my opinion. That understood, there are some very nice candidates in Minnesota in terms of defensive help.

WAR ON ICE PLAYER CHART

minnesota defense The Wild did not have a great year in possession and their player chart is kind of strange (they all played the same quality of competition according to this, except Nate Prosser who was banished from the kingdom). I like Jared Spurgeon a lot, but doubt he is available. Matt Dumba is also a player I like a lot (he could help the power play) but he has some chaos to his game.

Jonas Brodin is often mentioned—he and Klefbom have played together before—but Brodin has not progressed as a player.

BRODIN PLAYER CARDHe entered the NHL at 19—and had his best NHL season. Since then, Brodin has been going the wrong way. I call this the Bob Hess syndrome, and even through the metrics are more advanced today, rookie defenders who fade slowly in years two through five have been around the league forever. I would not trade for Jonas Brodin, let alone trade Nuge for him.

Why? As I write this, Leon Draisaitl missed his man and McCabe the American loped down from the point for the first marker for Team USA today at the WHCs. It should have been an easy mark—although it was 4×4—and it shows to go there are lessons ahead for Leon Draisaitl. He is not ready. Nice hair, though.

Andrei brings up a great point—why would the Hurricanes trade Faulk? First, they badly need a top center. Nuge is a little shy physically in the Western Conference, but he can wheel and is wicked smart and they are buying him on the downbeat.

Plus, and this is damned important, the Hurricanes are dealing from strength. They are drunk with fantastic American defensemen, led by Noah Hanifin, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. A kid from Carlyle SK, Haydn Fleury, is a fine prospect too.

I would not trade Nuge for Faulk—unless there is a same day trade for a substantial center who can offer cover for McDavid and Draisaitl. Is Andrew Shaw coming over?

THE BLUE ROOM (wish list)

  1. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators. Franchise player. He won’t move.
  2. P.K. Subban, Montreal Canadiens. Franchise player. He won’t move. Right?
  3. Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Effective defenseman, he costs only money. With Hamonic gone, I have moved him up—and remember he costs only money.
  4. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. He is close to a perfect fit for the puck-moving portion of this Oilers team, and might be available.
  5. Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. The gap between Faulk and (say) Barrie is not large in my mind. He cooled off as the season wore on but he would be a nice option.
  6. Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. This is a solid player and a great option for Edmonton.
  7. Sami Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks. I like his puck-moving ability but as with all young blue there is not a clearly established level of ability. What we see is very good offensively.
  8. Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender who keeps showing up in good places in possession.
  9. Michael Stone, Arizona Coyotes. Two-way D spiked offensively this year, you would like to have a little more track with those kind of boxcars.
  10. David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Interesting player, has a range of skills and could be among the more available names near the top of this list.
  11. Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player. Could be a buy low situation or a waste of assets.
  12. Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. He has had several false starts in Buffalo, but the numbers imply there is a player here. Might shake loose and could help.
  13. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value, he is a very young target for a team looking for bona fide help.
  14. Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. Under the radar name, he did pretty well in 2015-16. I have no idea if he is available but this is a player who is young enough to grow with the group in Edmonton.
  15. Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability. Hurricanes have a lot of options among blue and need forward help.
  16. Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. One thing we haven’t looked at a lot is the substantial offensive defensemen in the AHL. Schmaultz is such a player and we could see the Oilers acquire a player like Schmaultz. He is a very good prospect.
  17. Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. Another player with a puck-moving element to his game but not yet estsblished as an NHL player. We have talked about him quite a bit, most recently here.
  18. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player. He is not far from a point-per-game as a rookie defensemen in the AHL. No idea if he is available but worth the ask.
  19. Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. He never gets mentioned, but if you look at the numbers this guy keeps showing up in interesting places. No idea if he has a future, but his now is interesting.
  20. Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. I am probably the only one who still likes him enough to list him, but that hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need.
  21. Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. I doubt Mark Fayne returns, and Gryba could slide in as an inexpensive option in the stay-at-home department.
  22. Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system just posted a solid year in the AHL. Suspect they will keep him, but you never know.
  23. Frank Corrado, Toronto Maple Leafs. Very little evidence but he showed up in some good places.
  24. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL, he might be ready for an NHL role this fall.
  25. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season, he would probably be available for less than zero. Wildly unpopular idea, it might work.
  26. Taylor Aronson, Nashville Predators. Minor-league defender with some interesting numbers and he shouldn’t be expensive.
  27. Matt Irwin, Boston Bruins. He was buried in the minors this season and at 28 that could be it for his NHL career. That said, he did some good things as a San Jose Sharks blue and maybe there is a connection.

The 2016 draft top 120 will be up at 5pm, some changes based on chats I have had with folks about speed and a college man I didn’t even notice. Enjoy your day, if you see me walking Ziggy make sure to say hello—and yes, I can keep up with the dog, she just likes to go too fast.

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143 Responses to "ETHAN RIFLES"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LT,

    If we do the speculated Fayne & Lander for Bozak move, are you OK with RNH for Faulk? Then we go after depth RHD on July 1.

    Also, doubt we get Enroth or Reimer. Enroth won’t go to a team with a goalie with a multi year deal in front of him. He will go to a team where he can be the number 1 this year or next. He was very frustrated I LA behind Quick, made that well known.

    Reimer would be in the same boat.

    If bet we look at the next tier down. Johnson or Montoya.

  2. speeds says:

    Say the Oilers only get 1 RD this summer LT, and say Bear has a great camp. You think there’s any chance at all they give him a 9 game or less look?

  3. frjohnk says:

    Id trade Nuge for Faulk. I know a lot of people don’t like the idea of putting Draisaitl and McDavid against tough competition because when Nuge got hurt, these two had no cover.

    We have to remember that when Nuge was hurt, we basically had 1 top 4 option ( Sekera) on the backend. Two if you count Davidson, but that was shortlived, as he just emerged and was only a top 4 option for part of the season until he got hurt.

    A healthy Klefbom and Davidson along with the addition of Faulk would give these two young centers more help from the back end.

    McDavid has already faced the tough competition and done well.

    Place Hall with Draisaitl and the young man will be fine.

    Faulk did not play with a great set of forwards in Carolina and his partner was Hainsey and he put up incredible numbers.

    Imagine him with Klefbom ( a huge upgrade from Hainsey) and our forwards.

  4. Rondo says:

    I wonder what the discussion was like at the #117 slot . Should we take Bear or Jones. They chose Jones.

  5. GCW_69 says:

    With Shaw and Bozek potentially in play, plus Helm, Nielsen, Mathias, Backes, and Lewis potentially available via FA, maybe C is easy to fix than 1RD? If it is, then you have to look at it as a 2-step process.

    Let’s hope Chia does not sign Max Talbot. CorsiRel this year of -13.2 after -8.3 last year. Ugly.

  6. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Say the Oilers only get 1 RD this summer LT, and say Bear has a great camp.You think there’s any chance at all they give him a 9 game or less look?

    No, not for me. He has done everything asked, but there is much work to do.

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    I am repeating myself here. I would not trade the Nuge. As much as I like and feel Leon will one day become a very good centerman he is not there yet or ready. The way he finished the season and his play at the worlds it like he hit a wall.I truly believe playing with Hall inflated and made Leon look very good. The other teams started keying on them and that is why they both slowed down the later half of the season. I am a little concern about next season for Leon. As big as Leon is he needs time to grow and put on more man strength. JMHO

  8. BrazilianOil says:

    Never trust a brazilian guy talking hockey… A brazilian canucks fan ?? C’mon

  9. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LT,

    If we do the speculated Fayne & Lander for Bozak move, are you OK with RNH for Faulk?Then we go after depth RHD on July 1.

    Great question, and I don’t know. Edmonton would effectively have three scoring lines, but no real two-way Cs. Letestu is fine as a 4C, but he ended up playing 3line this past year. I would prefer a two-way C, but Bozak is a good fit overall imo.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    I wonder what the discussion was like at the #117 slot . Should we take Bear or Jones. They chose Jones.

    As long as they remained true to their list, I have no quarrel. When you leave the second round (imo), there are no prospects available without some questions about them. Stay true to your damned list!

  11. Kmart99 says:

    flyfish1168,

    Agree. I don’t think Leon is as far ahead of Nuge as many ppl may think. The gap is tighter IMO. Where it isn’t tight is the trade market. Drai holds far more value in trade than Nuge.
    If the Oil can get what they want for Nuge, who’s to say they couldn’t get even more for Leon?

    That’s my take. But I don’t see Chia moving Leon. He’s big and heavy. Nuge not so much.

  12. dustrock says:

    LT Eton Rifles is one of my all-time faves.

    Hello hurray what a nice day for the Ethan Rifles!

    Also a couple of great lines which could apply here:

    “What a catalyst you turned out to be, you load the guns and then run on home for your tea. Left me standing like a guilty schoolboy. ”

    And when I’m up against some of the top minds here:

    ” We came out of it naturally the worst, bloody and beaten and I was sick down my shirt. We were no match for their untamed wit, some of the lads said they’d be back next week. “

  13. dustrock says:

    LT couple of ongoing things:

    (1) Carolina has a bunch of great young D, but other than Faulk, aren’t they all LHD?

    (2) Demers only costs $$, but how much and what kind of term? We have to sign McDavid to ¢12m/year in a bit.

  14. Kmart99 says:

    I don’t think it insane to see Chia trade the pick for a dman, trade a centre for a dman, and sign Demers.

    Oilers gain 3 higher end dmen, and lose the pick, a centre, and cap space. Seems fair to me.

    Movement like that could propel the team straight to the playoffs.

  15. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    LT couple of ongoing things:

    (1) Carolina has a bunch of great young D, but other than Faulk, aren’t they all LHD?

    (2) Demers only costs $$,but how much and what kind of term? We have to sign McDavid to ¢12m/year in a bit.

    Hurricanes righties include Brett Pesce, who is very good already; Ryan Murphy, who has chaos but can play and might be outstanding; James Wisniewski who is very effective when healthy.

    As for Demers, any solution worthy is going to be over $4million.

  16. Pescador says:

    Good day all, I’m sure by this point we have all scanned the trade proposals and maybe even posted 1 or 2. Some of the more thought provoking; Eberle or Pouliot for Vatanen, Nuge for Faulk, 4th ov for Barrie.
    My preference is to trade our draft pick for a serious upgrade, immediate help RHD is the biggest need for this team. I don’t see any scenario where Chiarelli doesnt come away from the draft with a Defenseman, hopefully it doesn’t cost us the Nuge, but If Fault or Barrie+ is the return I can live with that.

  17. Woodguy says:

    *** SPAM ***

    New BecauseOilers:

    Oiler Right Shot Dman search #3 – Travis Hamonic

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/05/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-3-travis.html … …

    I know he rescinded his trade request read it anyway to help justify my effort dammit!

    🙂

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  18. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    dustrock,

    The problem with Demers is that we can’t force him to play here. If he chooses to go somewhere else were in trouble. That’s the advantage of a trade.

  19. Jethro Tull says:

    Germany beats the sceptic tanks (yanks) 3-2.

  20. fifthcartel says:

    Barrie is a really interesting situation. Colorado seems to be staying on their path of letting core pieces go away and although Barrie might not be a top-pairiing guy yet, he checks a lot of boxes and I would like to see him out of Roy’s system and with a better partner (Klefbom, Sekera).

    I can’t wait for this off season.

    Also, would it make sense for the Oilers to trade for Demers’ rights before FA?

  21. Woodguy says:

    Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. He is close to a perfect fit for the puck-moving portion of this Oilers team, and might be available.

    Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. The gap between Faulk and (say) Barrie is not large in my mind. He cooled off as the season wore on but he would be a nice option.

    The gap between Barrie and Faulk in my mind is experience at 1RD.

    Barrie’s never been in that spot (COL runs Johnson ragged against the best) and Faulk has been in that spot and succeeded with both Sekera and Hainsey (!)

    That means a lot.

    The difference between Barrie and Demers is that Demers was really kicking out the jams on 2nd pair and did well vs top comp.

    Barrie did less well, but we need to remember that neither of Barrie’s partners for the last 2 years are Actual NHL Top 4 Dmen and Guenin is not an Actual NHL Dman.

    Barrie brings a lot offence and Demers bring a more rounded package.

    After grinding through a whole bunch of Dmen stats my current chart is: (ignoring acquisition cost, which is an important factor)

    Faulk
    Hamonic
    .
    .
    .

    Barrie
    Demers
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Vatanen

  22. Woodguy says:

    If Barrie and Vatanen have the same acquisition cost you take Barrie and its not close btw.

  23. zatch says:

    By eye, I thought McDavid was basically only kept in check by guys like Subban and very top flight lines last year. I don’t worry about him next year, and fail to see how the Nuge is likely to be better than him at all by mid-season.

    Drai is another story. I don’t like him as the 2C, especially in the case of injury to McDavid. I think Nuge for Faulk would work, but an experienced and cheaper than Nuge 2C woulld need to be brought in and the 3C shored up. Is there a 4-5M man out there that fits the bill for Edmonton at 2C?

  24. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!. Re Demers. I doubt very much he is as high on the Oil list as your list.

    – Recall that under TMac, he was traded for Brenden Dillon: a much bigger presence…Doubt he is a TMac guy.

    – Demers has limited offence, his D is still not consistent from everything I read, and he’s smallish

    – He’s a good player, but Chia will do a trade to get the D he wants, not the default D available (unless Demers is one of many new D to come, and not this years “Sekera” pick-up)

    – Look at Dallas: Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers, Kris Russell and Jordie Benn, plus ready: Stephen Johns, Jamie Oleksiak, Patrik Nemeth, and Esa Lindell & Julius Honka: what a great mix of D

  25. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Here in Hurricane country I’ve been exposed to Justin Faulk quite a bit.

    I believe him to be the most underrated D-man in the NHL.

    I abhor the idea of trading Nuge but would do it in a heartbeat if JF were the return.

  26. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    Are you factoring in “expected contract cost” as part of “acquisition cost” in comparing Vatanen and Barrie?

  27. speeds says:

    General thought:

    I agree that the Oilers need to improve the D. And I know no one has said the Oilers forward group is perfect as is, but I would say that I don’t think it’s a good idea* to move a ton from the forward group to add 2 or 3 D.

    *In general, everything depends on the actual moves.

  28. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    General thought:

    I agree that the Oilers need to improve the D.And I know no one has said the Oilers forward group is perfect as is, but I would say that I don’t think it’s a good idea* to move a ton from the forward group to add 2 or 3 D.

    *In general, everything depends on the actual moves.

    That has been my point all spring. If you could add two RH D without touching the Fs, then buyout Korpikoski? I think that works, at least for me.

  29. prairieschooner says:

    Which teams are the Oilers up against if we are after Demers?
    Could Hendricks be the centre going the other way rather than Lander in those “needs a centre going back deals”

  30. Woodguy says:

    Cam Talbot is doing well for Canada at the WHCs, good to see him have success. I have been wondering about hiring James Reimer as the No. 2 G for next season—doubt he would accept the role, but it is worth discussing. My place holder name is Jhonas Enroth, we will have to visit this before free agency.

    Here is the list of UFA goalies and were they rank on a list of goalies organized in descending order of adjusted 5v5 SV% over the last 2 years (minimum 800 TOI) via waronice.com

    (if the goalie isn’t ranked its because they didn’t hit the 800 min threshold (approx 14gp) in 2 years)

    James Reimer 26
    Jhonas Enroth 45
    Karri Ramo 47
    Jonas Gustavsson 49
    Chad Johnson 50
    Jonas Hiller 53
    Cam Ward 57
    Ray Emery 63
    Al Montoya 64
    Anders Lindback 66
    Ben Scrivens 69
    Alex Stalock 70
    Anton Khudobin 71
    Niklas Backstrom 73
    Justin Peters
    Carter Hutton
    Jeremy Smith
    Joe Cannata
    Jeff Zatkoff
    Tom McCollum
    Drew MacIntyre
    Cedrick Desjardins
    Jason Labarbera

    Very thin crop of UFA G’s this year.

  31. Jethro Tull says:

    Receptor Antagonist: Here in Hurricane country I’ve been exposed to Justin Faulk quite a bit.

    Lordy Lou, and the cops don’t say anything? 😉

  32. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    Are you factoring in “expected contract cost” as part of “acquisition cost” in comparing Vatanen and Barrie?

    No.

    I didn’t factor in either.

    Just straight up value.

    I expect Barrie to be more on the cap, but not much more and he’s worth much more than Vantanen is today based on experience and results.

  33. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    What’s “not much more”?

    0.5M per year? 1M?

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    dustrock: (2) Demers only costs $$, but how much and what kind of term? We have to sign McDavid to ¢12m/year in a bit.

    Dusty, Demers will cost $$ and TERM. He wants paying. If he isn’t part of the long term solution, I don’t want him. He just happens to be the best of a thin pool this year. We should be careful we don’t paint ourselves into a corner.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull: Dusty, Demers will cost $$ and TERM.He wants paying.If he isn’t part of the long term solution, I don’t want him.He just happens to be the best of a thin pool this year.We should be careful we don’t paint ourselves into a corner.

    Why wouldn’t he be part of the long term solution? I buy Fayne not being part of that future, but Demers is a capable player with plenty of track left.

  36. supernova says:

    This post reminds me of my Elementary Days growing up on a farm in Saskatchewan.

    Ethan Bear hails from a Reserve called Ochapawace- they used to have a ski hill.

    There isn’t many places to learn to ski in SE Saskatchewan, but that’s where I learned.

    Hayden Fleury is from Nearby Carlyle, Sask. Same home town as Brendan Morrow.

    I am the same vintage as Morrow. I challenged Morrow to a fight in a exhibition game to try and get him out of the game so he wouldn’t beat us singlehandedly. He turned me down and scored a hat trick.

    Carlyle is about 3500 people and is a major Center for that area until you get too Estavan or Weyburn. These guys had to travel hours and hours to play and practice minor hockey.

    Each hockey practice for me was 45 minutes from our Farm to the Rink. Sometimes games would be a 2.5 bus ride to play a divisional opponent.

  37. UKOil says:

    Looking at the HERO charts for potential targets of Faulk, Shattenkirk, Trouba or Vatanan – I have faith that if we can get these D along with Klef and Andrej the then we will be so improved next year. But what we need right now is a Ghost (Ghost to be here).

    BTW, why are we worrying so much about the handedness of our D? Tampa had 1 RHD for the first game in the Conference finals, good D is better than RHD!

  38. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    – Great post LT!. Re Demers. I doubt very much he is as high on the Oil list as your list.
    – Recall that under TMac, he was traded for Brenden Dillon: a much bigger presence…Doubt he is a TMac guy.

    The same TMac that saw his team miss the playoffs for the first time since he took over, partially due to shitty D?

    Not saying that moving Demers is the reason they missed, but brother it didn’t help.

    Notice that TMac left that org after that season. Just because the GM traded a guy doesn’t mean the coach didn’t like him.


    – Demers has limited offence, his D is still not consistent from everything I read, and he’s smallish

    What does size have to do with offence?

    Last 2 years 5v5 pts/60:

    Weber 0.93
    Demers 0.92
    Vatanen 0.91
    Faulk 0.89
    Keith 0.89

    Do Weber, Vantanen, Faulk and Keith have limited offense too?

    I know Demers isn’t a PP guy, but 5v5 he’s good.

    – Look at Dallas: Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers, Kris Russell and Jordie Benn, plus ready: Stephen Johns, Jamie Oleksiak, Patrik Nemeth, and Esa Lindell & Julius Honka: what a great mix of D

    Goligoski is UFA
    Demers is UFA
    Russell is UFA
    Benn is UFA

    All 4 that played a regular shift for DAL this year are UFA this summer DAL signs 1 for sure, maybe 2 off that list.

    Klingberg is under contract, as is Oduya.


    Stephen Johns, Jamie Oleksiak, Patrik Nemeth, and Esa Lindell & Julius Honka

    Johns is ready for 3RD.

    Oleksiak has been given every opportunity but hasn’t grabbed a spot.

    I like the other 3 kids too, but they’re kids.

    Putting Johns, Nemeth, Lindell and Honka into DAL’s opening night roster is a recipe for missing the playoffs as they are all rookies.

    I could see the Oilers doing that, but probably not Nill.

    We’ll see.

  39. supernova says:

    speeds:
    General thought:

    I agree that the Oilers need to improve the D.And I know no one has said the Oilers forward group is perfect as is, but I would say that I don’t think it’s a good idea* to move a ton from the forward group to add 2 or 3 D.

    *In general, everything depends on the actual moves.

    speeds,

    One of the reasons I have been in the camp of getting Pysyk or Severson.

    Their Acquistion and contract cost doesn’t demand the same attention and the numbers show they could be close to top 4 prime time.

  40. Woodguy says:

    UKOil:
    Looking at the HERO charts for potential targets of Faulk, Shattenkirk, Trouba or Vatanan – I have faith that if we can get these D along with Klef and Andrej thethen we will be so improved next year. But what we need right now is a Ghost (Ghost to be here).

    BTW, why are we worrying so much about the handedness of our D? Tampa had 1 RHD for the first game in the Conference finals, good D is better than RHD!

    Thing about HERO or WARRIOR charts, especially for DMen is that they ignore context entirely.

    What pairing a player players on and his partner are crucial for evaluation Dmen.

    Use those charts with caution.

  41. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    What’s “not much more”?

    0.5M per year? 1M?

    Yeah, probably 1MM is the outside mark

  42. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Why wouldn’t he be part of the long term solution? I buy Fayne not being part of that future, but Demers is a capable player with plenty of track left.

    Because here is the list for UFA D for 2017. It is markedly better than this year.

    Wideman, Dennis CGY D UFA 6,000,000
    Burns, Brent SJ D UFA 5,760,000
    Shattenkirk, Kevin STL D UFA 5,200,000
    Kulikov, Dmitri FLA D UFA 4,500,000
    Hedman, Victor TB D UFA 4,250,000
    Markov, Andrei MON D UFA 4,250,000
    Del Zotto, Michael PHI D UFA 4,000,000
    Smid, Ladislav CGY D UFA 4,000,000
    Streit, Mark PHI D UFA 4,000,000
    Oduya, Johnny DAL D UFA 3,750,000
    Stuart, Brad COL D UFA 3,600,000
    Ference, Andrew EDM D UFA 3,250,000
    Smith, Brendan DET D UFA 3,250,000
    Michalek, Zbynek PHO D UFA 3,200,000
    Wisniewski, James CAR D UFA 3,000,000
    Alzner, Karl WAS D UFA 2,800,000
    Engelland, Deryk CGY D UFA 2,750,000
    Daley, Trevor PIT D UFA 2,700,000
    Franson, Cody BUF D UFA 2,650,000
    Kindl, Jakub FLA D UFA 2,640,000
    Hainsey, Ron CAR D UFA 2,500,000
    Schultz, Nick PHI D UFA 2,250,000
    Jackman, Barret NAS D UFA 2,000,000
    Robidas, Stephane TOR D UFA 2,000,000
    Gelinas, Eric COL D UFA 1,650,000
    Hunwick, Matt TOR D UFA 1,200,000
    Bortuzzo, Robert STL D UFA 1,050,000
    Postma, Paul WIN D UFA 887,500
    Scuderi, Rob LA D UFA 833,333
    Goloubef, Cody CLB D UFA 800,000
    Prosser, Nate MIN D UFA 650,000
    Sifers, Jaime CLB D UFA 650,000
    Kampfer, Steven FLA D UFA 625,000
    Clark, Mat COL D UFA 600,000
    Regner, Brent FLA D UFA 600,000
    Campbell, Andrew TOR D UFA 575,000
    Loverde, Vincent LA D UFA 575,000
    McNeill, Reid PIT D UFA 575,000
    Schilling, Cameron CHI D UFA 575,000
    Pronger, Chris PHO D UFA 525,000

    If we’re spending UFA dollars, I want better than capable.

  43. Pescador says:

    Woodguy:
    If Barrie and Vatanen have the same acquisition cost you take Barrie and its not close btw.

    For the record; I discovered Tyson Barrie.
    At an Oilers vs Avalanche game in 2015.

  44. geowal says:

    Receptor Antagonist:
    Here in Hurricane country I’ve been exposed to Justin Faulk quite a bit.

    I believe him to be the most underrated D-man in the NHL.

    I abhor the idea of trading Nuge but would do it in a heartbeat if JF were the return.

    I agree, I think there is a big gap between Faulk and Barrie…but it’s not Barrie who’s the better one.

  45. Acumen says:

    I love Nuge to bits, but in the whole idea of giving to get, I’m comfortable moving him for the right piece. Hamonic was not that piece, nor Vatanen or Barrie or Shattenkirk. Faulk is. Every time I see him play, I’m floored by how well he does everything. He is so similar to Doughty it blows me away–and Doughty is my favorite player. Not saying he’s Drew’s equal, but their game is very very similar. Faulk is probably about 10% worse across the board. I think it’s just one of those deals that hurts for both sides, addresses problems for both teams, and makes perfect sense value wise. I felt the same about the Jones Johansen deal earlier this year

    It seems people are split on their opinions of him. I think he’s a bonafide #1 you can build around. I think he’s closer to the Keith/Subban/Doughty level than he is to the Shattenkirk one. He’s an RHD on a ridiculous contract, and he may not be finished his development. I wouldn’t move Nuge for anyyhing I felt was selling him short, but this is a perfect match.

    However, my #1 dream would still be stealing Parayko away from the loaded right side of that STL back line. I strongly believe he could win Norris trophies. I would move anyone not names Taylor or Connor for him.

    As for the UFA goalies, I’ve been screaming to acquire Khudobin for years, and he has a connection to Chia. He’s my first, second, and third choice for backing up Cam.

  46. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Jethro Tull: Lordy Lou, and the cops don’t say anything?

    Well, it IS North Carolina.

    *cues up dueling banjos*

  47. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. He is close to a perfect fit for the puck-moving portion of this Oilers team, and might be available.


    Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. The gap between Faulk and (say) Barrie is not large in my mind. He cooled off as the season wore on but he would be a nice option.

    The gap between Barrie and Faulk in my mind is experience at 1RD.

    Barrie’s never been in that spot (COL runs Johnson ragged against the best) and Faulk has been in that spot and succeeded with both Sekera and Hainsey (!)

    That means a lot.

    The difference between Barrie and Demers is that Demers was really kicking out the jams on 2nd pair and did well vs top comp.

    Barrie did less well, but we need to remember that neither of Barrie’s partners for the last 2 years are Actual NHL Top 4 Dmen and Guenin is not an Actual NHL Dman.

    Barrie brings a lot offence and Demers bring a more rounded package.

    After grinding through a whole bunch of Dmen stats my current chart is: (ignoring acquisition cost, which is an important factor)

    Faulk
    Hamonic
    .
    .
    .

    Barrie
    Demers
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Vatanen

    Woodguy,

    speeds,

    While Faulk did play 1D he also was leakier Defensively.

    Is this a Factor of Quality of Competition or his own skill set.

    I found the comparison between the two difficult for a couple reasons.

    Colorado is brutal in fancies.
    Barrie played 2nd pair, but fared well.

    Carolina can’t score well
    Faulk played first but was leaky defensively.

    At this point for the same trade cost I chose Faulk.
    But that is also mainly due to more experience and we know contract terms.

    I found Vatanen a ways back of these two but on a better team.

    Same pedigree Powerplay wise but we could be in for an adventure on Evens.

    If we can get Vatanen for the Level below RNH and Ebs, we do that but we prepare for the fact we could be in for some Jultzing moments.

    All 3 need to be Powerplay Giants or we are in trouble with the value given up.

  48. wheatnoil says:

    supernova: speeds,

    One of the reasons I have been in the camp of getting Pysyk or Severson.

    Their Acquistion and contract cost doesn’t demand the same attention and the numbers show they could be close to top 4 prime time.

    Put me in the pro-Severson camp too.

  49. UKOil says:

    I think if we trade Nuge for D, expect it to be in the summer after we know if we can get a capable C in free agency. We really need to be finding these buy low types on D.

  50. fifthcartel says:

    Every UFA summer looks amazing a year before it happens. Then a bunch sign and it becomes significantly less appealing.

    At one point Byfuglien, Seabrook, E. Johnson, Giordano, Coburn, were all slated to become a UFA this summer but they all ended up signing.

    I mean, it is possible there is a better fit next year in July, but can they really afford to do that? They need defense now and McDavid’s ELC is ticking away.

    There might be an arguement to acquire a Wisniewski-like stopgap and then see what defensemen are available next year, but I wouldn’t be a fan of that. If they can add two top-4 D they should do it this summer.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull: What Fifth Cartel said. The best time and the worst time to look at the free agents available is one year out. Those cats will get signed, unless they play for Colorado.

  52. Pescador says:

    Crazy to think we could see two former 1st Ov draft picks (Yak & Nuge) traded away in 1 summer, possibly the same draft. Let that sink in for a moment.
    This is why my wish is to trade 4ov outright, some players make it, some don’t. Full Stop.
    Don’t know who mentioned it (apologies) but it is a good point non the less; Any Dman the Oilers bring in is going to get a big upgrade on their flank in a healthy (please God, I don’t ask for much; Ok that’s a lie and everyone knows it!)
    Oscar Klefbom.

  53. leadfarmer says:

    I’m just wondering whats the upper limit for a contract people would give Demers. I personally wouldnt go above 5 per for 5 years

  54. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Btw, in a thread at the end of the year you said I predicted Talbot at a .923

    I ran across my actual prediction the other day: .918

    He posted a .917

    Here’s the link: http://lowetide.ca/2015/08/24/re-15-16-cam-talbot-ghostbusters/#comment-440262

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Pescador,

    Well one is traded because he didnt develop well. The other one may get traded because the people steering this ship decided that guys like Nikitin were the solution on defense. Now were going to trade some good forwards to try to plug that hole.

  56. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    I found Barrie leakier than Faulk and that’s against 2nd comp.

    Barrie has pretty poor partners, but Faulk also put up a positive RelCor on a good possession team with 35 year old Hainsey as his partner.

    That’s pretty impressive.

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Jethro Tull: What Fifth Cartel said. The best time and the worst time to look at the free agents available is one year out. Those cats will get signed, unless they play for Colorado.

    True, but I’d like to aim higher than Demers.

  58. Water Fire says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    What’s “not much more”?

    0.5M per year? 1M?

    I completely agree that a large part of success in a capped league is spending efficiency.

    However, I think that beyond overly rich contracts such as Subban, Kane and Toews, and possibly Stamkos’ next, it matters more outside of the top half of the roster, who play the majority of minutes, and the majority of critical minutes. There player quality is king.

    What kills most teams are the Korpikoski, Dustin Brown contracts that stop the talent from being acquired or reained. Wrongly valuing attributes like gritensity that can’t play well enough to be good or play a higher role.

    LT called it, the key is players functioning at a minimum hockey level such as executing the basic skills, passing and taking a pass. All things being equal, adding Demers for Fayne makes the team a better team – more scoring, no loss of defense, and the ability to move the puck at tempo so as to not overburden the partner.

    Defense that have to chip out or pass to partner make forechecking for the opponent a lot easier. If both players can move it out cleanly even if they aren’t offensive the team is much stronger and team offense is stronger because forwards do most of the scoring and if they get the puck more in the O zone the team scores more. Dallas is a prime example of this. I don’t like their D on paper, but it worked better than most.

    Demers playing Fayne’s roll at 5M is affordable. For nest season Fayne can be retained also. It’s done best without movement restrictions. But if a shot at a better UFA next year comes up Some contracts can be cleared out such as Fayne, or an overpaid forward.

  59. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    I’m just wondering whats the upper limit for a contract people would give Demers.I personally wouldnt go above 5 per for 5 years

    Sekera was $5.5 cap over six years. I think gets it done and absolutely know many will think it too much (it is). I would take that contract though, and hope a third pairing RH option could be had via the trade route for picks and prospects.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Pretty sure the final tally was
    Leadfarmer .916
    LT. 920
    Woodguy .924
    Everyone else didnt want to leave their hats out there. Couldnt remember which thread it was but it was during the run on final predictions

  61. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy: Barrie has pretty poor partners, but Faulk also put up a positive RelCor on a good possession team with 35 year old Hainsey as his partner.

    If the old management was still in, i’d be scared they’d go to market with RNH for Faulk and then have a brainstorming session and come back with Hainsey.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    kinger_OIL,

    Btw, in a thread at the end of the year you said I predicted Talbot at a .923

    I ran across my actual prediction the other day:.918

    He posted a .917

    Here’s the link: http://lowetide.ca/2015/08/24/re-15-16-cam-talbot-ghostbusters/#comment-440262

    I also had him playing 57gp and he played 56.

    I should get paid for this!!!

  63. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Pretty sure the final tally was
    Leadfarmer .916
    LT. 920
    Woodguy .924
    Everyone else didnt want to leave their hats out there.Couldnt remember which thread it was but it was during the run on final predictions

    Did you not click the link to what I actually predicted in August?

    Did I predict .924 somewhere? Link?

    Also,

    Sorry Kinger, thought it was you.

  64. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    Another post of yours from that thread:

    Woodguy:
    rickithebear,

    Griess was top 30 in last 2 and better than .8550.

    Its funny, Griess has popped in and out of the top for a few years.

    At 29 I’m not sure he’ll get a chance to be a starter, but it was a good signing by PIT and a good signing by NYI this year.

    Halak’s injuries are piling up as he ages.Greiss might have a chance to take a job there this year.

    Wow. Nicely done.

  65. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy,

    Another post of yours from that thread:

    Wow. Nicely done.

    ANOTHER DATA POINT OF ME GETTING PAID TO DO THIS!!

    HA!

    I have a few misses in that thread too I think.

    Thanks.

  66. gd says:

    I hope the target order is: Faulk, Barrie, Vatanen, Demers/Severson.

    I think there is enough debate on who wins the RNH/Faulk trade that if Carolina does it, it probably makes sense as a win-win deal. The Brindamour/Olczyck connection to RNH plus the Faulk’s real cash hit is why the deal might make sense for Carolina. If that trade is made then I hope the Oilers use the 5th rounder to get the rights to whichever of Staal/Backes/Neilsen they think they have the best chance of getting and then give them the Nikitin type two year deal with the Cap savings for two years at around $7mill.

    The pluses in the Barrie camp are; played in the Central, played for TMc at 2015 Worlds, has the worse management on other side of deal. Would Eberle+4th for Barrie+10th get the deal done? How much more is Barrie worth?

    If Severson is acquired as the PP guy, then the 5th to Dallas for the rights will hopefully let them get it done b4 July. As much as Demers is the only UFA option for RHD, I think the only teams that need him and can afford to overpay him are maybe Tor and Bos, so the bidding war might not be that crazy.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    I personally think Sekera is a little better but not much. I still think we would need an upgrade on 1 RHD and thats why getting Faulk for that #1 spot to play with Klefbom at under 5 million would be huge.
    I could live with
    Klefbom Faulk
    Sekera Demers
    Nurse Davidson

    Your actual preferences may vary

    Thats finally a D-corpse that is not an actual corpse

  68. Woodguy says:

    I actually didn’t aim low enough for CAL and VAN here but got both of them being shitty:

    Ducey,
    Plus, I look at the standings, and there are few weak sisters. Calgary may decline, but not much (thanks Sweeney), and Vancouver looks they took a step back, but they finished with a 101 pts last year. The Oilers had 62.

    I think CAL will decline more than a little.
    They had a perfect storm last year. Hot goaltending when they couldn’t score and Dmen shooting 20% when they couldn’t buy a save.
    I can see them being as low -15 Goal Diff or so if they get the shitty side of luck, even Goal Diff if they have *normal* luck. They were +25 last year with a 1010 PDO (5th highest in the NHL)
    Also,
    Van traded their best goalie in Lack.
    Lack had a .921 and Miller had a .911 last year.
    That’s about another 12 GA if everything holds and Miller plays as much as Lack did last year.
    Markstrom has been amazing the AHL, but hasn’t been able to put it together in the NHL, so we’ll see there, but I wouldn’t bet on over .910
    They lost Bonino for Sutter (down grade in offence) , Bieksa (*spits*). Traded Kassian (*spits*) for an older and less effective version in Prust.
    Basically they are down to 35 year old Sedins, Vrbata and a young Horvat up front and Edler, Hamhuis and Tanev in the back.
    A couple of key injuries and under-performing goalies can drop their goal diff to the negatives too as they were only +20 last year.

  69. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer,

    Klefbom Faulk
    Sekera Demers

    I like that top 4 a lot, but I’m not sure they can afford it.

  70. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    Pescador,

    Well one is traded because he didnt develop well.The other one may get traded because the people steering this ship decided that guys like Nikitin were the solution on defense.Now were going to trade some good forwards to try to plug that hole.

    I’m well aware of the reasons, & I agree with you.
    It’s Bullshit and there is incompetence smeared all over it

  71. Shane says:

    Pescador,

    Quebec traded three 1OVs before Colorado won the cup.

  72. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    supernova,

    I found Barrie leakier than Faulk and that’s against 2nd comp.

    Barrie has pretty poor partners, but Faulk also put up a positive RelCor on a good possession team with 35 year old Hainsey as his partner.

    That’s pretty impressive.

    Woodguy,

    We need to factor in Goals For / Against in my opinion

    Here is Faulk & Hainsey

    5*5 TOI

    1138
    1477 Hainsey

    GF60

    2.06 Faulk
    2.03 Hainsey

    GA 60

    2.90 Faulk
    2.48 Hainsey

    GF%

    41.5
    45.1 Hainsey

    GF Rel

    -6.3%
    -0.6 % Hainsey

    Faulk plays most of his Evens with Hainsey but Hainsey factors out much better in the Goals Against portion while maintaining almost the exact same Goals For.

    339 minutes different in Evens but Hainsey far superior on the Goals against side.

    Very similar Corsi metrics but different GF metrics

  73. UKOil says:

    Woodguy:
    leadfarmer,

    Klefbom Faulk
    Sekera Demers

    I like that top 4 a lot, but I’m not sure they can afford it.

    The Klef-Faulk pairing is the same cap hit as PK, this isn’t that bad a top 4, I like it and could be achievable if Demers isn’t a massive overpay

  74. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – You just like to argue to argue: where did I link size with offence? If the PP is something we are looking to upgrade, I don’t get excited by a guy who doesn’t play on PP, and has scored 7 goals

    – Whatever we may think of McL (I think he’s a great coach, I guess you don’t), he’s our coach, he coached Demers, Demers was traded while playing with him. Its a consideration. To the extent and level of involvment coaches have on trades (they do, amount varies), its relevenat given history.

    – So you don’t think that Dallas has a great D or depth? IT’s an order of magnitude better than ours.

    – I did not say that all their prospects are going to be on the starting roster: you just did!

    – I don’t like Demers as much as you do, I don’t think he’s as high on the list of D that the Oil would target even though he only costs money.

    – I provided some qualitative, quantatative and historical context for why I don’t think he’s coming here: it’s my opinion.

  75. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    I actually thought my quotes in that thread you posted were bang on: “Bad G tandemn and bad D”:

    This is what I posted then, and that’s whay I was right when predicting points total this year:

    Talbot was a decent bet, but far from certain, and the back-up you are hoping he rebounds. Hardly a G tandem that you hang your hat on, thinking: “we are good to go”. Lots of risk
    – The downside for this team is another bad G tandem, and a D that is too young and too old

  76. speeds says:

    Shane:
    Pescador,

    Quebec traded three 1OVs before Colorado won the cup.

    Who knows how many they could have won if they had not traded Sundin for Clark?

  77. Primetime says:

    RE: Bozak for Fayne/Lander

    I get that we are merely spit-balling here, and I like the idea behind this but doubt it is even a possibility.

    Why would T.O. trade Bozak now? I get when they were in total destruction mode, but they already won their prize. And cleared up a tonne of longterm salary in the process. Who would provide cover for Matthews as a center…Kadri? Doesn’t it make sense to put Matthews on Bozak’s wing to start (Kessel/JVR both have had success with him) and then Kadri can be the #1 for a year or two? They have no other centers on the roster…I guess it would change if they got Stamkos/E. Staal…

    Also, wasn’t Lou still in charge when the Devils allowed Fayne to go to free agency? If he liked that contract number/player, wouldn’t he have matched?

    Totally agree with the concept of finding another center for trade to cover if RNH does get moved though…

  78. Water Fire says:

    UKOil: The Klef-Faulk pairing is the same cap hit as PK, this isn’t that bad a top 4, I like it and could be achievable if Demers isn’t a massive overpay

    This. A $20M top 4 is only a little over 2X Subban.

    The problem I see for fleshing out the team is bonuses. To have quality at the top the bottom has to be very efficient. If empty spots are taken by young guys with bonus potential things get difficult to manage predictably.

    For me I’d rather have one less expensive forward and one more expensive D. I see that as a net benefit. Especially when your forward corp can be built around McDavid, Leon and Hall. I like Pouliot but I keep seeing him and Eberle as the guys I’d sacrifice when the time comes.

  79. stush18 says:

    I really think we are going to see either one dman brought in (Barrie) if we keep fayne. There will be too many dollars tied up in the back end if we keep fayne and sign two more righties.

    Klef(4)-barrie(5.5)
    Seker(5.5)-demers(5.5)
    Davidson(1.5)-fayne(3.5)

    That kinda defense (switch out the new righties for whoever), is going to cost roughly 23-25 million. Also that lineup blocks nurse and Reinhart from playing for two years. I’m all for keeping them on the farm, but not for two years. I think Reinhart needs the Klef treatment next year, and nurse needs most of the year.

    I could see one RH dman(Barrie) sliding in, and running with gryba as the extra guy.

    Klef-Barrie
    Sekera-fayne
    Davidson-Reinhart
    Gryba

    Now that defense is obviously not as good as the first, but it leaves more room to play with financially during the mcdavid years.

    If they somehow move fayne, then I think we will obviously see two righties coming back. Although I can’t see us moving him without taking a similar contract back as well. Maybe fayne for bickell? Chicagos defense ran dry during the playoffs, and they need a steady guy. They gain a little cap space for next year, and we lose bickells contract after next. There is also a good chance we can LTIR bickell because of his vertigo issues, which persist today.

    Slightly off topic, but I hope he fixes whatever ails him. Seems like an honest player who is playing because he loves the game.

  80. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    kinger_OIL,

    Btw, in a thread at the end of the year you said I predicted Talbot at a .923

    I ran across my actual prediction the other day:.918

    He posted a .917

    Here’s the link: http://lowetide.ca/2015/08/24/re-15-16-cam-talbot-ghostbusters/#comment-440262

    Let us know when you get a prediction right 🙂

  81. Woodguy says:

    supernova: Woodguy,

    We need to factor in Goals For / Against in my opinion

    Here is Faulk & Hainsey

    5*5 TOI

    1138
    1477 Hainsey

    GF60

    2.06 Faulk
    2.03 Hainsey

    GA 60

    2.90 Faulk
    2.48 Hainsey

    GF%

    41.5
    45.1 Hainsey

    GF Rel

    -6.3%
    -0.6 % Hainsey

    Faulk plays most of his Evens with Hainsey but Hainsey factors out much better in the Goals Against portion while maintaining almostthe exact same Goals For.

    339 minutes different in Evens but Hainsey far superior on the Goals against side.

    Very similar Corsi metrics but different GF metrics

    I don’t like to look at goals unless the sample is about 3 years long and the goalies didn’t change.

    Too few data points and too much variance between goalies.

    Last year he was on the ice for 54 goals against that’s about two games worth of corsi data points.

  82. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Let us know when you get a prediction right

    ZING!!!

  83. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    – You just like to argue to argue:

    Yes.

    where did I link size with offence?

    You said: – Demers has limited offence, his D is still not consistent from everything I read, and he’s smallish

    You had it in the same sentence so I thought it was part of the same thought.


    If the PP is something we are looking to upgrade, I don’t get excited by a guy who doesn’t play on PP, and has scored 7 goals

    This is a good point. I think the Oilers need 2RHD and the other can be the PP guy.

    If they only get one, I’m not sure I want it to be Demers


    – Whatever we may think of McL (I think he’s a great coach, I guess you don’t), he’s our coach, he coached Demers, Demers was traded while playing with him. Its a consideration. To the extent and level of involvment coaches have on trades (they do, amount varies), its relevenat given history.

    I have no idea why you think you I don’t like McLellan. I like him. I just don’t think his results are much different than the last couple of coaches 5v5 and I expected better on the PP.


    – So you don’t think that Dallas has a great D or depth? IT’s an order of magnitude better than ours.

    I think they have depth but introducing a bunch of rookies is never a good idea.

    Mike Heika (DAL beat guy) said 3 rookie should start next year. They do that and they might miss the playoffs.

    Also, you read what I write here. I’m not insane enough to compare the Oiler’s D to anyone by COL.


    – I did not say that all their prospects are going to be on the starting roster: you just did!

    I showed you that 4 of their starters were UFA. Can pencil in a UFA until he’s signed.


    – I don’t like Demers as much as you do, I don’t think he’s as high on the list of D that the Oil would target even though he only costs money.

    Fair.


    – I provided some qualitative, quantatative and historical context for why I don’t think he’s coming here: it’s my opinion.

    Also fair, as its fair of me to refute some of the stuff I disagree with.

  84. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    Good example of goal data being misleading.

    Last year Petry had the worst GA/60 and Jultz had the best.

    Was Petry the worst Dman and Jultz the best?

    Goals are too infrequent to use, especially over a season.

  85. supernova says:

    Woodguy: I don’t like to look at goals unless the sample is about 3 years long and the goalies didn’t change.

    Too few data points and too much variance between goalies.

    Last year he was on the ice for 54 goals against that’s about two gamesworth of corsi data points.

    Woodguy,

    I understand and for the most part agree with what you are saying.

    Difference is in comparing GA / GF for Faulk / Hainsey is that the were mainly the same pairing, which would mean same goaltending, same quality of competition. They won’t be identical but about as close as you can get.

    Sample size is smallish but at the same time there is a significant difference in Goals Against

    ——

    I like Faulk a ton, my main point was to say he leaks Goals Against while playing top pairing minutes.

  86. kinger_OIL says:

    stush18,

    – This is a nice forward thinking post. Becasue of Griff/Nurse/Davidson and development: I’ve been advocating getting 1 RHD, and another D vet for 2 years (not two new guys @ 5.5mm x6)

    – Im not talking Ferrence or Nikitin vet either!

    – If you could keep both Fayne and Gryba untill at least next trade deadline, you’ve got enough vets, enough RD and parts for the next big trade, while giving Griff Nurse the “Klef” treatment as you put it.

    – We don’t need playoff D for September at all costs and doing stupid. But a way better D, blocking Griff/Nurse somewhat, and being set up for another trade at deadline: that’s about right.

  87. Woodguy says:

    UKOil: The Klef-Faulk pairing is the same cap hit as PK, this isn’t that bad a top 4, I like it and could be achievable if Demers isn’t a massive overpay

    Yeah I love PK but that cap hit is too much.

  88. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – We agree that if Demers is our only “get”, that’s no good…

    – Demers is fine if you want to have a D by top-4 committee approach, but he’s not enough alone

  89. Woodguy says:

    stush18,

    That kinda defense (switch out the new righties for whoever), is going to cost roughly 23-25 million. Also that lineup blocks nurse and Reinhart from playing for two years.

    The 7th Dman on a NHL routinely play more 5v5 TOI in a year than all bottom 6 forwards.

    The 8th will play as much as regular 4th liners by the end of the year.

    Injuries happen, Nurse and Grif won’t be blocked.

  90. Woodguy says:

    supernova: Woodguy,

    Difference is in comparing GA / GFfor Faulk / Hainsey is that the were mainly the same pairing, which would mean same goaltending, same quality of competition. They won’t be identical but about as close as you can get.

    Well when they were paired their GA would be identical right?

    Faulk played 1138min 5v5 last year, 636 with Hainsey, so 56%

    I doubt Hainsey apart played 1st comp, whereas you’d expect Faulk to play 1st comp regardless of his partner.

    Even accounting for this goals are still way too rare to use SN, they just are.

  91. --hudson-- says:

    Slightly OT, but wouldn’t it be prudent to keep RNH until McDavid signs long term? Maybe I’m being paranoid here but I don’t think McDavid will be willing to go through what Hall has, and if next season things don’t turn around I wonder how contract talks go in the summer.

  92. Centre of attention says:

    4th pick and Reinhart + Nuge to Avalanche for 10th pick + Duchene and Barrie?

    I do that trade. Does Colorado? Probably not.

  93. speeds says:

    –hudson–:
    Slightly OT, but wouldn’t it be prudent to keep RNH until McDavid signs long term?Maybe I’m being paranoid here but I don’t think McDavid will be willing to go through what Hall has, and if next season things don’t turn around I wonder how contract talks go in the summer.

    Would the Oilers walk away even if McDavid signed a 4 year offer sheet for the 20% max?

  94. Lowetide says:

    –hudson–:
    Slightly OT, but wouldn’t it be prudent to keep RNH until McDavid signs long term?Maybe I’m being paranoid here but I don’t think McDavid will be willing to go through what Hall has, and if next season things don’t turn around I wonder how contract talks go in the summer.

    I think it is folly to trade Nuge without an adequate replacement. Beyond that, not worried about McDavid. He, like Hall, is wired to overcome all obstacles. Imo.

  95. "Steve Smith" says:

    I decree that Steve Desroschers is to become this blog’s newest meme (that’s how memes, work, right?). Desroschers in goal and Klassen as a utility skater – those guys are the future of this team.

  96. stush18 says:

    Woodguy:
    stush18,

    That kinda defense (switch out the new righties for whoever), is going to cost roughly 23-25 million. Also that lineup blocks nurse and Reinhart from playing for two years.

    The 7th Dman on a NHL routinely play more 5v5 TOI in a year than all bottom 6 forwards.

    The 8th will play as much as regular 4th liners by the end of the year.

    Injuries happen, Nurse and Grif won’t be blocked.

    Sure. I’m for keeping gryba, and I personally think musil may be kept on as an 8th dman aka Davidson until fayne is dealt.

    I think Reinhart starts on the team with nurse in the minors. Reinhart gets sent down like klefbom did for 10-15 games, and plays the rest of the year on the team.

  97. stush18 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    stush18,

    – This is a nice forward thinking post.Becasue of Griff/Nurse/Davidson and development: I’ve been advocating getting 1 RHD, and another D vet for 2 years (not two new guys @ 5.5mm x6)

    – Im not talking Ferrence or Nikitin vet either!

    – If you could keep both Fayne and Gryba untill at least next trade deadline, you’ve got enough vets, enough RD and parts for the next big trade, while giving Griff Nurse the “Klef” treatment as you put it.

    – We don’t need playoff D for September at all costs and doing stupid.But a way better D,blocking Griff/Nurse somewhat, and being set up for another trade at deadline: that’s about right.

    Agreed, although I think we should move on from fayne. I am perfectly happy running with gryba and having Davidson in his spot.

  98. bendelson says:

    Nice job looking at the D gang!

    I love how the issue is blue-skied, then circled, players are identified, then narrowed, with options explored against numerous filters along the way… absolutely one of my favourite things about this site.

    Klefbom – Demers
    Sekera – Vatanen
    Davidson – Severson

    I have Demers at 5 x 5.25M
    I have Vatanen for Pouliot +
    I have Severson for Yak +

    Is Vatanen a better option than Faulk or Barrie? No, but I do consider him a more available and likely a more affordable trade option.

    Can Vatanen play top 4 minutes without leaking oil? I would suggest it matters less with Severson also in the mix.

    Severson at less than 1M for two more years… a BIG part of this equation.

    And a good day to you all…

  99. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: ZING!!!

    ~ You really missed that big dip from .918 to .917. Ya shoulda listened to G$. Happens to most new starters. ~

  100. Магия 10 says:

    bendelson: Klefbom – Demers
    Sekera – Vatanen
    Davidson – Severson

    The Vegas Vig will luv you for this.

  101. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    I decree that Steve Desroschers is to become this blog’s newest meme (that’s how memes, work, right?).Desroschers in goal and Klassen as a utility skater – those guys are the future of this team.

    Desroscher has gloves on each hand, as he is adept at holding the stick with them. He switches up during play to confuse opponents.

  102. JimmyV1965 says:

    Some random thoughts.
    1. If we trade RNH we absolutely need someone to slot in as 2C, at least in the short term.
    2. I’m growing increasingly worried about Draisaitl. If he’s hurt, why is he still playing hockey?
    3. Can’t wait to see Canada absolutely crush Finland
    4. My order of preference on RD is Faulk, Barrie, Vatanen. Guys like Demers and Sverson are fine, but not as the primary aquisition.
    5 My order for moving out assets is 4th overall, 2017 first, Eberle, RNH.
    6. I just can’t fathom why the Avs would move Barrie. They need dmen. When they traded O’Reilly, centre was a position of strength. If they do trade Barriie, we will have to include a dman and you just know they will be asking for Davidson .
    7. If Canes move Faulk, they are tearing it down and doing a complete rebuild. Why else would they do it? The optics would be terrible. It would be like us trading Hall before we had McDavid. To me, that means hey want the 4th and they will want to unload Staal and his contract as well.
    8. PC will make a deal out of left field that catches us all off guard.

  103. bendelson says:

    Магия 10,

    Indeed.

    I blame the Lowetide society.
    The Lowetide society made me what I am.

  104. Pescador says:

    Shane:
    Pescador,
    I was not aware of this.
    Can you or someone else elaborate on this? I could do my own research but this is the best Q&A Oilers blog in the world.
    Are we talking picks or players who were drafted? Lindros & who else?

    Quebec traded three 1OVs before Colorado won the cup.

  105. Moose says:

    Few observations:

    – Often when fans assess trade viability, we do so in a linear, 1-for-1 sense, to determine a fit. That’s super simplistic. This is chess, not checkers, to many GM’s. For instance, there’s been a lot of talk of Colorado dealing Duchene for D. We can sit here and say “why would Colorado trade Barrie?” Well, put in the context of them acquiring help from other avenues it makes more sense. Suddenly acquiring F help from Edmonton to make up for losing Duchene now makes sense.

    – Same thought process applies to signing Demers. He’s “free” to other teams too. If you think you have significant interest from Demers in the pre-signing interview period, you feel a lot better about dealing a RHD to the Oilers. This is how many deals will, and do, go down: “If player X is there at our pick we’ll trade you Y” or “We have this other thing we’re trying to do, if we get that deal done, we’ll trade you Z”

    – If I’m trading Nuge, it’s only to the East in a Subban, Karlsson, Faulk deal. Would hate to see him going to a Western Conference playoff rival for the next 10 years. Not to mention I think that’s an overpay for Barrie, Vatanen and the other western options.

    – Are we overstating Carolina’s need for a top C just a tad? They have Jordan Staal, Victor Rask is already a legit 2C and Lindholm (I know he’s played a lot of W). Mind you they haven’t had a ton of legit scoring wingers flanking those guys. I’m not saying they’d take Eberle or Pouliot for Faulk, I’m saying are we sure they’d really trade Faulk for Nuge?

    – Agree with LT and others who say try like hell to fix the D without touching the F’s. They #4 pick in the immediate aftermath of the draft seemed like a crappy consolation prize, but let’s no understate it’s value, and that value only increases with every passing day leading up to the draft. When GM’s get on that floor and things start buzzing and ideas flying around, that pick is gonna look pretty damn attractive to someone.

  106. Primetime says:

    Pescador,

    Prior to their 1996 Cup win:

    Out: Lindros/Sundin/Nolan

    In (on winning roster): Lefebvre/Ozolinsh/Forsberg/Ricci/Simon

  107. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Really hope CBJ addresses their centre problem at the draft. Puljujarvi just runs PPs from the left half wall, with a big shot himself. Would fit like a glove in EDM, give home some time in Bako first. Otherwise I think I trade down to 8-9 and take Chychrun

  108. Oil2Oilers says:

    Lowetide: Desroscher has gloves on each hand, as he is adept at holding the stick with them. He switches up during play to confuse opponents.

    I am really coming around to this Desroscher fellow. Top 4 picks can never go wrong!

  109. Oil2Oilers says:

    NYC Oil update;
    Did the park walk and Met wander recommend this morning. Afternoon got too cold on the Highline so I hid out in the Chelsea market.

    Just finished off a wonderful steak sandwich at Bar B. Plan to hit the Shake Shack in the park tomorrow before leaving.

    It is not roof top bar weather tonight, anywhere you would recommend for watching the hockey game tonight? Flareghty’s is the only spot that I have seen that seems likely?

    Cheers for the great advice.

  110. supernova says:

    Woodguy: Well when they were paired their GA would be identical right?

    Faulk played 1138min 5v5 last year, 636 with Hainsey, so 56%

    I doubt Hainsey apart played 1st comp, whereas you’d expect Faulk to play 1st comp regardless of his partner.

    Even accounting for this goals are still way too rare to use SN, they just are.

    Woodguy,

    Even while looking at a 4 year sample size?

    2012-2016
    Faulk
    GF / 60 2.30
    GA/ 60 2.83

    Just 15-16

    GF 2.06
    GA 2.90

    I get it that on a seasonal basis it’s a small sample size, I just have never understood why to disregard it entirely. The object of the game is to out score the other ones. I Understand why to Value Corsi and Fenwick at a more projectable rate then GF/ GA but I don’t understand why it shouldn’t be apart of the conversation,

    Until we get some of these tracking stats that the Sportlogiq type companies track and keep private I know we rely on Corsi / Fenwick close, etc.

    Just trying to learn

  111. frjohnk says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Really hope CBJ addresses their centre problem at the draft. Puljujarvi just runs PPs from the left half wall, with a big shot himself. Would fit like a glove in EDM, give home some time in Bako first. Otherwise I think I trade down to 8-9 and take Chychrun

    I had thought that as well, but was checking out what Aaron Portzline ( Blue Jackets beat writer) had written about Columbus GM mentioning some of the prospects at 3, and its all about Laine or Puljujarvi. Nothing about Dubois and it seems like most scouting services see Dubois more of a winger.

    http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2016/05/tidbits-thoughts-and-scribbles-1.html

    “When you compare these players (Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi),” Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen said, “you have to realize that Matthews was almost eligible for last year’s draft. He missed it by two days. So, in hockey years — that’s what I call them — he’s a year older than the other two. You have to factor that in when you evaluate them as prospects.”

    Kekalainen has scouted Laine and Puljujarvi extensively the last couple of seasons. He was reluctant to comment on either one of them, lest he show his hand in the poker game that is the draft. But he would say this:

    “They are both special, special players,” Kekalainen said. “They both have high-end skills, great motors and they play fast … high skill at high speed. I’ve been watching hockey for a number of years. What Puljujarvi did at the (IIHF) World Juniors (where he named top forward) I don’t think I’ve ever seen from a 17-year-old in an under-20 tournament. What Laine did in the playoffs in Finland (named playoff MVP) is unheard of at his age. These are special players.”

    As for their center depth, sounds like they will have Jenner and Dubinsky as the centers in top 6.

    — With zero chance of landing Matthews, the likelihood of Brandon Dubinsky and Boone Jenner being the Blue Jackets’ 1-2 centers next season has increased dramatically. So if you take Jenner off the wing, that leaves the Blue Jackets’ top-six wingers as Brandon Saad, Nick Foligno, Cam Atkinson and Scott Hartnell. Add Laine or Puljujarvi to that mix. That leaves room for Anderson and/or Bjorkstrand, who appear to be the most NHL-ready.

  112. JimmyV1965 says:

    If Blue Jackets don’t want winger at #3, they are absolutely trading down. Would be huge blunder for GM to take PLD in that spot. They could actually receive substantial value for trading down.

  113. kinger_OIL says:

    Oil2Oilers,

    Dude – sounds like your having a great trip! I’d be curious what NYC says for pub. But this one (Sean Avery is part owner)!: In Tribeca, a New York vibe. I like it there:

    http://www.warren77nyc.com/

    Or of course, can’t go wrong with McSorley’s, plus you can justify the visit for historical reasons: one of the oldest in America I believe!

  114. Lowetide says:

    Oil2Oilers: I am really coming around to this Desroscher fellow. Top 4 picks can never go wrong!

    His nickname is the Snapping Turtle, but he is prepared to change it to Smitty if the Oilers pick him.

  115. Water Fire says:

    Does anyone see a change that one of the Finns drops to 4? I wonder if the physicality of Tkachuk and Dubois entices given they also have vision and offense.

    Which makes me wonder if Tkachuk at 4 is what happens. I can’t see them passing on one of these 4 wingers, with an eye to the future. Really they only have Hall in the same class and age range as the future centres.

    Draft one of the wingers, sign an UFA winger, try to sign an UFA defense, maybe make a trade for another. It covers a lot of bases now and later. The other factor is I imagine they feel they won’t be this close to the cream of the draft crop for a long time.

  116. bendelson says:

    kinger_OIL: McSorley’s, plus you can justify the visit for historical reasons: one of the oldest in America I believe!

    I’ve stumbled out of that establishment a couple of times… for historical reasons.

  117. Woodguy says:

    supernova: Woodguy,

    Even while looking at a 4 year sample size?

    2012-2016
    Faulk
    GF / 602.30
    GA/ 60 2.83

    Just 15-16

    GF 2.06
    GA 2.90

    I get it that on a seasonal basis it’s a small sample size, I just have never understood why to disregard it entirely. The object of the game is to out score the other ones. I Understand why to Value Corsi and Fenwick at a more projectable rate then GF/ GA but I don’t understand why it shouldn’t be apart of the conversation,

    Until we get some of these tracking stats that the Sportlogiq type companies track and keep private I know we rely on Corsi / Fenwick close, etc.

    Just trying to learn

    You need to remember that Dmen don’t stop pucks.

    Over the last 4 years there have been 55 goalies play at least 3000 minutes over those years.

    Cam Ward ranks 48/55 with a .9156

    CAR’s 5v5 SV% rank last 4 years: 29, 28, 12, 25

    CAR has had a .9074 5v5 while Faulk was on the ice over those 4 years.

    The median goalie of those 55 is Varlamovy with a .9225

    Faulk has been on for 2332 shots against and 216 goals against.

    If he had league medain goaltending he GA would be 181, not 216.

    35 goals better just getting average goalering

    Feel better about him now?

    Faulk has taken on the best (for the most part) and come out ahead on the shot clock 2465 to 2332 over the last 4 years and he just turned 24.

    That’s pretty damned impressive.

    Played in front of shit goalering though.

  118. Woodguy says:

    Primetime:
    Pescador,

    Prior to their 1996 Cup win:

    Out: Lindros/Sundin/Nolan

    In (on winning roster): Lefebvre/Ozolinsh/Forsberg/Ricci/Simon

    one of those things is not like the other
    one of those things just doesn’t belong
    can you tell which one of these things is not like the other
    by the time I’m finished this song?

  119. supernova says:

    Woodguy: You need to remember that Dmen don’t stop pucks.

    Over the last 4 years there have been 55 goalies play at least 3000 minutes over those years.

    Cam Ward ranks 48/55 with a .9156

    CAR’s 5v5 SV% rank last 4 years: 29, 28, 12, 25

    CAR has had a .9074 5v5 while Faulk was on the ice over those 4 years.

    The median goalie of those 55 is Varlamovy with a .9225

    Faulk has been on for 2332 shots against and 216goals against.

    If he had league medain goaltending he GA would be 181, not 216.

    35 goals better just getting average goalering

    Feel better about him now?

    Faulk has taken on the best (for the most part) and come out ahead on the shot clock 2465 to 2332 over the last 4 years and he just turned 24.

    That’s pretty damned impressive.

    Played in front of shit goalering though.

    As Oiler fans we have seen a few of those bad Goalering seasons lately.

    While I get that the Goalies play a massive part in it. How do we also account for the Defender making the bad play putting the goalie in the ridiculously bad position of trying to stop the shot when they have no chance.

    The Nikitin blown gasket. The Defender that leads the team in Corsi but you also know he is gonna lead in brain dead goals against ?

    HDSCA ? Is that part of the solution ?

    Simply Corsi alone is sufficient IMO.

    Back when McDavid came back from injury in February and the Powerplay started firing and then went dead, I started scanning the Advanced stats for the RH shot defenders.

    Faulk popped out to me.

    I watched about a dozen Hurricane games after that.

    I like him plenty, and I think he is good Number 2 D that can make the Powerplay go. But he does have that occasional brain cramp that makes you swear at him, because you know he is capable of better.

  120. Woogie63 says:

    I am having a hard time believing in a defenseman that Wilson and Nill both let go.

  121. Oil2Oilers says:

    kinger_OIL,
    Thanks, Avery as a owner, interesting.

    The trip has been great. Fort Mac Tuesday will be an adjustment.
    kinger_OIL,

  122. Younger Oil says:

    Not sure if this has been mentioned, sorry if it has, but the Oilers official Facebook made a post on Ethan Bear to which someone replied “Sign him already”, to which the Oilers replied:

    “He’ll be inking an ELC soon”.

    Great news.

  123. Oil2Oilers says:

    Lowetide: His nickname is the Snapping Turtle, but he is prepared to change it to Smitty if the Oilers pick him.

    Smitty always did make his living in the crease!

  124. Primetime says:

    Woodguy: one of those things is not like the other
    one of those things just doesn’t belong
    can you tell which one of these things is not like the other
    by the time I’m finished this song?

    Sorry WG, what did I mess up? Was just answering the question about Quebec/Colorado trading 3 #1 overall draft picks before winning the Cup…

  125. Woodguy says:

    Primetime: Sorry WG, what did I mess up? Was just answering the question about Quebec/Colorado trading 3 #1 overall draft picks before winning the Cup…

    Wasn’t directed at you, just that without Forsberg the return is pretty meh for Lindros, Sundin and Nolan.

    Even with Forsberg is doesn’t match what went out.

  126. rickithebear says:

    After lowes trades in 05 and spring 06.
    Oilers had th best hsca dman depth.
    After we had our deepest off d depth and finshed last.

    Your big list of off d is the solution.

  127. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: Was directed at you, just that without Forsberg the return is pretty meh for Lindros, Sunday and Nolan.

    Even with Forsberg is doesn’t match what went out.

    That Sunday guy was meh. Always seemed hungover and tired.

  128. rickithebear says:

    Low chance shot median save % .9750
    Med chance shot median save % .9150
    High chance shot median save % .8300

    I want the d with shots mostly in low.

    You want off d like Faulk who score at a 4th line rate who give up big high chance numbers.
    .8300 save%

    You are not really that silly/misguided to blame a goalie for a low save % in front of those d.

    If he got x save%! That is Embarrassing.

  129. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: one of those things is not like the other
    one of those things just doesn’t belong
    can you tell which one of these things is not like the other
    by the time I’m finished this song?

    The answer is and always will be Rhett Warrener.

  130. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: That Sunday guy was meh.Always seemed hungover and tired.

    Man.

    That and it said “Was directed at you” , when I meant “Wasn’t”

    I hate this phone

  131. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    who did they have up front when they had this deep offensive depth on the back end? bullshit Ricki

  132. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Chachi: The answer is and always will be Rhett Warrener.

    Rhett Warrener, Mark Fistric, Ben Lovejoy, Mark Fayne, Kevan Miller, and Brett Bellemore

    there’s your stanley cup defence

  133. bendelson says:

    So… that was quite the baseball game today.
    A little bit of everything, as they say…

  134. Woodguy says:

    supernova: As Oiler fans we have seen a few of those bad Goalering seasons lately.

    While I get that the Goalies play a massive part in it. How do we also account for the Defender making the bad play putting the goalie in the ridiculously bad position of trying to stop the shot when they have no chance.

    The Nikitin blown gasket. The Defender that leads the team in Corsi but you also know he is gonna lead in brain dead goals against ?

    HDSCA ? Is that part of the solution ?

    Simply Corsi alone is sufficient IMO.

    Back when McDavid came back from injury in February and the Powerplay started firing and then went dead, I started scanning the Advanced stats for the RH shot defenders.

    Faulk popped out to me.

    I watched about a dozen Hurricane games after that.

    I like him plenty, and I think he is good Number 2 D that can make the Powerplay go. But he does have that occasional brain cramp that makes you swear at him, because you know he is capable of better.

    I’m not sure our current fancystats can account for that.

    Scouting + fancy stats is always better than either alone.

    That said, its pretty rare that a Dman wins the shot battle in the first pairing and isn’t good.

    I can’t really think of any.

  135. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Rhett Warrener, Mark Fistric, Ben Lovejoy, Mark Fayne, Kevan Miller, and Brett Bellemore

    there’s your stanley cup defence

    BearCup?

  136. Water Fire says:

    I’m not sure how much you can separate blame on many goals outside of clear mistakes.

    Really we are still at the point where all we really know is that teams that regularly outshoot are the better teams, bad goalering cannot be overcome usually, elite players cannot win alone, and luck is a fickle friend.

    The most predictive stat I don’t see around anymore is the number of clear victories a team has, meaning regulation wins by more than a goal I believe it was. An obvious sign of team strength.

    I watch and look for which team is in a rhythm and playing their system evenly, breaking up attacks and counter attacking consistently. When both teams and goalies are playing well the battle goes back and forth and chances are few.

    The other thing I look for is which players are doing more work and winning plays consistently, especially in creating good chances, while also not giving up much at the other end. Most players go through warmer and cooler periods. Stars are far more often warm than cool, this consistency being one of the main traits that make them special in a league full of high calibre athletes.

  137. supernova says:

    Woodguy: I’m not sure our current fancystats can account for that.

    Scouting + fancy stats is always better than either alone.

    That said, its pretty rare that a Dman wins the shot battle in the first pairing and isn’t good.

    I can’t really think of any.

    Woodguy,

    That’s more or less what I was getting at.

    How to tell the difference between who has more Nikitin tire fire events outside of just Corsi and WOWY.

    HDSCA for the most part display that.

    Part of me thinks that’s what falls apart between fancy stats community and some management or media types.

  138. supernova says:

    rickithebear,

    rickithebear:
    Low chance shot median save % .9750
    Med chance shot median save % .9150
    High chance shot median save % .8300

    I want the d with shots mostly in low.

    You want off d like Faulk who score at a 4th line rate who give up big high chance numbers.
    .8300 save%

    You are not really that silly/misguided to blame a goalie for a low save % in front of those d.

    If he got x save%! That is Embarrassing.

    Ricki

    What is Faulk’s number ?

    What is Barrie’s number ?

    In these categories

  139. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Low chance shot median save % .9750
    Med chance shot median save % .9150
    High chance shot median save % .8300

    I want the d with shots mostly in low.

    You want off d like Faulk who score at a 4th line rate who give up big high chance numbers.
    .8300 save%

    You are not really that silly/misguided to blame a goalie for a low save % in front of those d.

    If he got x save%! That is Embarrassing.

    Firetruck

  140. Lowetide says:

    Who had Woodguy blames the phone? MacFly? Bueller? Damn, I lost the list!

  141. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Who had Woodguy blames the phone? MacFly? Bueller? Damn, I lost the list!

    Leadfarmer has a list, but won’t read it.

    I think Kinger mentioned something about Nurse too…

  142. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Leadfarmer has a list, but won’t read it.

    I think Kinger mentioned something about Nurse too…

    Get yer shinebox!

  143. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    For the Win !

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