A NICKEL FOR THE FIDDLER

On the weekend he was traded to the Edmonton Oilers, I had the opportunity to ask Griffin Reinhart a few questions. One of them pertained to his 2014-15 performance in the Islanders system and with the big club:

  • Griffin Reinhart on his first year of pro hockey: “I think it was a little inconsistent, I had stretches where I wasn’t playing very well and maybe a little bit frustrated and disappointed maybe I wasn’t up in the big league but when I was playing well I played extremely well and was able to keep up—especially in some of the games I got to play up in the NHL. I thought I handled myself well and it’s always a confidence booster when you do play well at that level.”

I think you could take that quote and apply it accurately to Reinhart’s season in 2015-16—and that is a concern. It is also true the Oilers have several lefties in the system, two of whom—Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart—are attempting to transition at the same time.

Earlier in the spring, I asked on this blog if we were certain that Darnell Nurse’s performance at the NHL level was clearly superior to Reinhart’s, and most responses (that I read) felt Nurse had a better year. Let’s have a quick look at the comparison.

 NURSE V REINHART

Both men finished well (Reinhart was 51.1 Corsi for 5×5 percentage between March 21 and April 8; Nurse was 51.2 5×5 in his final four games) and both men trail Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Brandon Davidson in all major areas of measurement. I am still wondering about these two young blue, and the best way to proceed. I mean, if you want to keep one of them, is there something math can tell us? What if the trade value is there for one of those players this summer?

I wonder if this is an itch Peter Chiarelli may try to scratch this summer. If not Dougie Hamilton, perhaps Tyson Barrie? Food for thought, and I bet you Darnell Nurse has extreme value—even after this season. So, two questions for you:

  • What is the gap in ability, in your opinion, between these two players?
  • Assuming both men are slotted behind Klefbom, Sekera and Davidson LHD on the depth chart, are you open to trading one of them in a deal to improve RHD—even if ‘one of them’ means Nurse?

nurse lucic

  • Corey Pronman on Nurse and Reinhart: “There’s a small gap (between the two) I like Nurse a lot, he edges Reinhart in my opinion. There’s also an age difference between the two—Reinhart has already played one year of pro—I think they’re similar in terms of proximity to the NHL, they’re both on the bubble. I think Nurse has a little more of a dynamic element to his game. Nurse’s skating is a little bit better and they both project as good defensive players, I think Nurse can bring a little more offense to the NHL.” Source

PRONMAN’S 100

k-tel

If you are of a certain vintage, this photo brings back a pile of memories. K-Tel routinely (four times a year? Don’t remember) packed much of the recent Top 40 into an instant greatest hits collection and we all bought it like madmen. Some of us, those with a paper route, also purchased the record selector, but honestly I broke mine within an hour.

Corey Pronman has his 100 list out for the 2016 draft, I read it with the same verve and anticipation once applied to Stephen King’s The Shawshank Redemption. I have mentioned this before, but Pronman’s gifts are multiple: He does in fact appear to have a handle on the draft, he writes in an informative an enjoyable manner, and he offers actual nuance.

  • Corey Pronman on Greg Chase, pre-draft: Chase entered the season with a decent amount of hype and he figured to make a push to be drafted in the top two rounds. While he was somewhat underwhelming, his skills make him worth knowing, the best of which is his hockey sense. Scouts praise his offensive mind and vision. He can slow the game down when he has the puck, hit targets through small lanes, and move the puck quickly when need be. He also has good hands, and when he is on, his offensive upside is apparent. His skating earns divided opinions, with one scout calling it a positive, and another saying his first steps can be a tad sluggish. His physical game and consistency are areas of concern as well. He has average size, but he does not tend to be imposing with his board work. Finally, his game-to-game on-ice work ethic could use improvement, especially in the defensive end.

That is a fantastic scouting report in 150 words. That is basically all we have time for in today’s world, and I walked away with a pretty good idea about young Mr. Chase. A scouting report can’t tell you if a player will make it, but it can tell you if there is more than one way for him to do it. It can also indicate any potentially catastrophic issues (Chase had none, even the skating was not hopeless) and we wait to see how the story turns out. There are some surprises—Pronman holds Tyler Benson’s value where many other lists have flagged him—and we will discuss the list with Corey on the Lowdown tomorrow.

THE C-BUS

There are no rumors out there, but for me the Columbus Blue Jackets make a tremendous amount of sense as a trade partner for Edmonton. Aside from being in cap hell, the Jackets have:

  • RHD David Savard, who would be a very nice fit for the Oilers.
  • RHD Seth Jones, who would also be a terrific—if young—addition.
  • F Boone Jenner, a rugged scoring forward who can play center.
  • L Kerby Rychel, a gritty forward with some skill.
  • R Oliver Bjorkstrand, a dandy skill winger the Oilers could have drafted in 2013.

WELL, SHIT. GUY CLARK

My Dad was almost 50 when I was born. He gave me baseball, a love of laughter, and country music. I cannot tell you why Guy Clark’s songs moved me, only that what he wrote spoke to me and that I will always cherish Desperadoes Waiting for a Train. Whatever the connection, it will last a lifetime.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A short show today, we have just one hour before Canada-Finland live on  TSN 1260. My friend Jonathan Willis will drop in, we will discuss the Raptors, the NHL playoffs and how to fix that damnable blue without sacrificing the Nuge.

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154 Responses to "A NICKEL FOR THE FIDDLER"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    I say we threaten Columbus that we will offer sheet Jones or we can make a trade and GR is part of it.

  2. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    flyfish1168:
    I say we threaten Columbus that we will offer sheet Jones or we can make a trade and GR is part of it.

    Are you going into four 1st round picks territory? We still owe the Bruins a 2nd, remember? And at the lower price point Columbus likely says thanks for doing our work for us amd matches.

  3. flyfish1168 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I would threaten an offer sheet but try for a trade. Would never trade 4 1st for 1 player not the way we win 1st overalls.

  4. barry.moore23 says:

    OT – My favorite part of last nite’s game was when Pierre McGuire – on NBCSN in the US – said something close to “Schultz can really bring it [the shot] from the blueline. That’s why they brought him here from Winnipeg … er, I mean Edmonton. He’s a University of Wisconsin product”. Bwahahahahahaha

  5. knighttown says:

    Ooh another Nurse post (indirectly) right on the heels of yesterdays really good discussion. One of the narratives that I’m not sure I subscribe to is that “bad teams trade away players before they know what they have” and that the Oilers are notorious for this.

    If anything I think the Oilers have been a bit guilty of hanging onto guys too long out of fear they’d come back to haunt them. They definitely help on to Sam Gagner too long until he was essentially a buyout. Justin Schultz was devalued to nothing and now Nail Yakupov will get us a second and a third at this years draft. None of these guys have jumped up to bite us in the butt and I guess we’ll wait to see on Yak. What can’t be argued is that had the Oilers made a judgment on any of these three sooner they’d have been much better off.

    Remember the Gagner vs Voracek debate? You could have had quite a return had you pulled the trigger.

    Justin Schultz was supernova during year 1, literally obliterating the field during his AHL/NHL split season.

    And Yak was a #1 overall who led NHL rookies in goals.

    Players are assets, that’s it. And we have the edge because we have the inside scoop on the assets in our control. We should make assessments on these young players and if they see something they think is a “tell” they should move the asset while the value is high.

    We’re now here with Ryan Nugent Hopkins, Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart. I’d even throw in Leon Draisaitl. Each are famous and pedigreed and still have some of the shine. If you had a asset value bell curve I’d say:
    -Leon’s value is higher than it ever was. They should be deciding if this is the high point. Is he a legit number 1 because I think that’s his trade value right now which is massive.
    -Nurse’s value is about as high as it’s ever been. I’d say it jumped from draft day once he dominated the world juniors and has held there.
    -Nuge’s value is heading slightly down on the bell curve but it’s still tremendously high. They need to know if it’s going up or continuing down.
    -Reinhart’s value has definitely declined from his already fallen level–>#4 overall and Mem Cup MVP down to overripe prospect–> now prospect well behind the timelines of #4 overalls.

    I’m a fan and I have my guesses but the Oilers should know these 4 guys inside and out.

    For what’s it’s worth I dangle Leon. I’m not saying I’d sell him for an expired box of Ovaltine but I’d explore options. I think Montreal might think long and hard about PK if Leon is in the package.

  6. JustWatt says:

    Anyone have a stream for the game? Can’t find one.

  7. Ducey says:

    CLB just has 5 picks in this draft – they are missing their 4th and their 5th. They likely would not mind a few more.

    Wow. That Clarkson contract is a disaster. 4 points, 2nd worst CF% on the team. Full NMC.

    And no, the Oilers should not be offer sheeting anyone. They have a better chance of picking in the lottery again next year than making the playoffs. You don’t give away possible lottery picks – ever. Offer sheets should be reserved for when a team is going all out to win a cup. The picks are lousy and the team is looking short term. Anyone thinking that the Oilers need to go all out to make the playoffs isn’t thinking rationally.

  8. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    What is the gap in ability, in your opinion, between these two players?

    My 0.02: Nurse has a significantly higher ceiling due to his raw tools and athleticism. Currently Reinhart plays a little more controlled game, but in part I think Nurse takes more risks because he used to be able to get away with it in junior. No one looks at Reinhart and thinks he oozes potential to be a top pairing guy. People look at Nurse and see the potential, but that he is a long way away from “getting it” still and achieving it. I was still really pissed they threw him in the NHL deep end last year, as you may recall.

    Assuming both men are slotted behind Klefbom, Sekera and Davidson LHD on the depth chart, are you open to trading one of them in a deal to improve RHD—even if ‘one of them’ means Nurse?
    I am not open to trading Nurse for a right hand D that is not at least as good a player and fit as the Finn in Buffalo who shouldn’t be named for fear of starting a war. If he is part of a package that brings Erik Karlsson over I would be okay with it (unrealistic). Reinhart probably doesn’t fetch anywhere near what it cost Chia to obtain him. And yet he is not going to make the protected list in an expansion draft at this point. There is still time. It’s not GR’s fault. He should be allowed to slowly develop away from the pressure. This one lies squarely on the shoulders of Chia and Green. Keep him and let him take his time a la Davidson. Trading him now would be taking a hefty loss– 50 cents on the dollar they paid.

    Look, they didn’t know what they had in Davidson and probably didn’t know they were going to land Sekera. But they did know the system was stocked more with lefties: Klef, Nurse, Simpson, Musil, Oesterle, etc. Again MacT’s short-sightedness with respect to Petry is appalling. But unless Nurse is a piece in a 3-for-1 I can’t see any way they win a trade. Would Buffalo offer the Oilers a do-over on their pick? Nope. No chance at this point.

  9. zatch says:

    barry.moore23:
    OT – My favorite part of last nite’s game was when Pierre McGuire – on NBCSN in the US – saidsomething close to “Schultz can really bring it [the shot] from the blueline. That’s why they brought him here from Winnipeg … er, I mean Edmonton. He’s a University of Wisconsin product”. Bwahahahahahaha

    There’s a lot to love about this quote from ol’ Glanskull, but the fact he can’t remember where an NHL player played for the last several seasons but can recall where he played Jr/College is peak McGuire.

  10. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    flyfish1168:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I would threaten an offer sheet but try for a trade. Would never trade 4 1st for 1 player not the way we win 1st overalls.

    I don’t see the point in threatening an offer sheet when it is clear we don’t have a 2nd round pick to offer and that we aren’t going into four 1sts territory? Kekalainen would say buzz off.

  11. stush18 says:

    knighttown,

    That’s the whole point isn’t it tho? The oilers have been terrible at managing asserts for years. If they were not in Canada they likely would have been relocated due to all those failed years.

    I don’t give up on drai yet. I think he compares favourably to Mikko koivu. If we can sign him to a long term deal around 4-5 mill per, assuming he progresses next year or comtinues to maintain this level, I take that. He is one of the few shooters we have on this team.

  12. Clarkenstein says:

    Haven’t seen much of Reinhart but when I do he reminds me of the Jason Arnott quote…”I just wasn’t into it tonight!”

  13. stush18 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    So name some NHL ready RH dmen that were available for trade at last years draft?

    Even within the past year? I know one, and he had an awful year in Calgary.

    The truth of the matter is Reinhart was traded for by a gm who didn’t know or trust his own players yet. We would all be boldfaced lying if we though anyone of Davidson, Simpson, musil, oesterle, or leggs would be able to make a positive impact at the NHL this year, if ever.

    Before this year, Edmonton defense was typically rated fairly poorly compared to the rest of the NHL. Nurse was the only significant prospect.

    I would trade nurse if it meant hamonic. It’s not because I favour one or the other, it’s because any trade proposal includes Reinhart ++, despite him arguably outplaying nurse despite lesser partners.

    I think both have the potential to be elite shutdown top four dmen. I think Reinhart is the less risky, because he is more cerebral than nurse. Nurse may have a higher ceiling, but do you trust oilers management to develop him properly? Cuz I have my doubts.

  14. Truth says:

    The Oilers should be the last team in the league threatening anybody about an impending offer sheet. McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Reinhart, Davidson, and Broissoit will all be upcoming RFA’s. I wouldn’t forget the fact I was threatened about an offer sheet if I was GM.

    Burke did have a point, if you want to be able to sign your own RFAs to reasonable deals, leave everyone else’s alone. Come up with a reasonable offer in trade and leave it at that.

  15. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stush18,

    Why do I need to name some NHL ready RHD from last year’s draft? To prove what, exactly?

    My only criticism of Chia is that he paid too much for Reinhart.

  16. stush18 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Well one of your points was he made a trade for a LH dman prospect when we had lots. I assumed you were arguing he should have traded for a RH dman. My bad. That’s what most people’s arguments are when talking about this trade. “Why didn’t he trade for Hamilton! Or subban is availible!” Lol its a piss off.

    Question, would you honestly trade Darnell nurse last year for the 16th and 32nd pick?

  17. Caramel Batman says:

    Gmoney was killing it last night on Nurse. He’s really come around to my way of thinking!

    Anyway, Nurse is the guy you trade 100 times out of 100. Not because I think he is bad (I don’t) but because he is very unlikely to be great, and yet still has the reputation of a future star. This is the prototype of the player you trade.

    The only caveat is I am assuming he brings back the goods. You trade Nurse before Hall, Hopkins, or Eberle, because he isn’t as good as they are, is very unlikely to ever be as good as they are, and yet nonetheless could bring back just as much in a trade.

    Nurse + second round pick for Barrie is a great deal for the Oilers. Great.

    Nurse for Vatanen is riskier but still a good deal. I’d rather do Pouliot but that may not be an option.

    The Oilers need to add two RHD this year. And they need to add them without subtracting any players that are really good. Trading Nurse is the only way to do that.

    You keep the big ticket trades for big ticket returns. I’m looking at you Subban. Don’t worry about the money. Because of the salary cap star players are all underpaid. It’s the middle guys who are overpaid. They aren’t that much better than young players and diamonds in the rough. A stars and scrubs team is a winning formula.

  18. LoDog says:

    stush18:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Well one of your points was he made a trade for a LH dman prospect when we had lots. I assumed you were arguing he should have traded for a RH dman. My bad. That’s what most people’s arguments are when talking about this trade. “Why didn’t he trade for Hamilton! Or subban is availible!” Lol its a piss off.

    Question, would you honestly trade Darnell nurse last year for the 16th and 32nd pick?

    That’s what I have been thinking lately. If the Oilers traded Nurse for the 16th and 32nd at this years draft people would lose their minds. Yet a very similar prospect was way too much,

  19. Water Fire says:

    I can see what Chia likes in Reinhart. He is a smart, smooth player. If he can develop his quickness a bit he will be a very solid bottom tier top 4 IMO.

    His player type is the perfect compliment to an offensive partner. It’s really too bad he’s also a lefty as he would be a great partner for Nurse, and might be anyway as they both get better.

    I see him as a more effective player than Gryba because he can move the puck well. If he had snarl he’s have that spot locked up already.

  20. Water Fire says:

    For a good prospect it’s probably cheaper just to trade for them as opposed to offer sheeting, which nobody seems to do anyway.

  21. digger50 says:

    There are so many things individual players can bring to a team that are not measured in math. For this reason I have Nurse miles ahead of Rienhart. Speed, attitude and snarl, Nurse jerseys will be sold out, Rienhart jerseys on sale.

    I say this to answer the question of the blog. However I am not down on Rienhart, I like him, he will make it, and may even post better numbers,. But he won’t pass Nurse in percieved value.

  22. prairieschooner says:

    If the Poulliot for Vatanen trade did happen.what number would he be on the Oilers and by what % would the Oilers D be improved.

    Surely Nurse needs to be moulded and crafted before we pass judgement (D men take longer, I read that somewhere) and also GR.
    Nurse missed his AHL development component.

  23. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT. The discussion on Nurse vs. Griff has been great by everyone. I really liked Ricki’s description of Nurse’s rushes with the puck from end of last thread.

    – Griff is Chia’s guy, Nurse is OBC. I know it doesn’t work like this but I do feel that once they figured out that neither was ready to step into the slots in the NHL that they hoped at the beginning of the year there wa a little bit of: “OK you develop Nurse your way, by feeding him minutes, I’ll develop Griff my way by playing him in AHL and protecting him. Lets see who does better”

    – Griff development plan did more to improve his standing than Nurse.

    – Totally off topic, but a really great article on goalies, and some anaylsis of how not to build a NHL goalie roster Oilstyle. One great quote: “Of the goalies to play at least ten games in the NHL this season, more were undrafted (13) than drafted in the first (12), second (10), or third (11) rounds.”

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/5/16/11676886/the-leafs-goalie-strategy

  24. slopitch says:

    Griff or Nurse need to go for the top RHD. I don’t see any way around it.

    Stupid lottery. Laine looks insane (I mean this as a compliment).

  25. Woodguy says:

    My biggest problem with the Reinhart trade is that young LHD was not an area of need.

    At the time they had:

    Klef
    Marincin
    Nurse

    Klef was coming off a very good year.

    Both coaches tried to keep Marincin down the roster but they both ended up using him, mostly with Fayne.

    Nurse finished his last year in junior and was a key member of the U21 team.

    So another young LHD wasn’t high on the priority list.

    THEN, they traded Marincin for a 4th.

    WTF?

    There isn’t an argument which player has been better between Marincin and Reinhart at the time of the trade, it was Marincin and it wasn’t close.

    This year Marincin started as a HS and playing 3rds for TOR, but like every other coach he’s had, Babcock started moving him up the roster and he ended up on the top pair for the last 1/4 season with Rielly.

    This year Reinhart starts with all the verbal in the world that he’ll be a top 4 Dman this year and certainly make 3rd pair out of camp and ends up struggling at 3rds and plays a whole 20 games in the NHL.

    The whole scenario reeks of MacTavish et al and completely disgusts me in its absolute lack of ability to judge Dmen with any kind of inkling of a clue.

    So a the end the Oilers end up:

    – 16 overall
    – 33rd overall
    + 107th overall
    – the better Dman

    You can’t write a script that would have the characters be that idiotic, no one would buy it.

    Then Chiarelli realizes how goddam thin the blue still is and grabs Sekera (correctly) to push the incredibly expensive to acquire Dman even further down the chart.

    Really disappointed me that Chiarelli obviously listened to voices that should have been silenced the day he took over.

    No one from Oilers management has fired or moved away from a position of influence btw.

    There is still a stench emanating from Kingsway and I’m not that comfortable that Chiarelli’s decisions this summer won’t be influenced by the keystone kops who made the Oilers a perennial laughing stock mostly through their idiotic, inebriated, upside down, ludicrous, short-sighted, obtuse and thick-skulled decisions about Dmen for the last 6-7 years.

    Assholes.

  26. Water Fire says:

    I’d be shocked if Nurse was traded simply because of how tough and fast he is. When GM’s look at him I’m not sure his hockeying is their first consideration.

  27. godot10 says:

    Davidson can play the right side on the 3rd pairing. He did for two years playing with a chaos D in Brad Hunt in the AHL. Davidson is our Hjallmarson. He can play either side. So the left side is Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Reinhart, which is not too many lefties.

    The right side is new guy #1, new guy#2, Davidson, Fayne (or Gryba).

    With Klefbom’s health issues, having both Nurse and Reinhart around is a good thing, not a bad thing.

  28. Truth says:

    LoDog: That’s what I have been thinking lately. If the Oilers traded Nurse for the 16th and 32nd at this years draft people would lose their minds. Yet a very similar prospect was way too much,

    When the Oilers traded for Reinhart Barzal was on the board. Barzal was #9 on McKenzie’s final draft ranking, and #8 on Lowetide’s.

    So…If the Oilers traded Nurse for Chychrun (#9 on McKenzie & LT this year) + 33 overall (maybe Tyler Benson?) I think the Oilers would win the trade. So much so that I think it would be worth it even when the Oilers need D now. Plus Nurse is a better prospect than Reinhart.

  29. Richard S.S. says:

    I think Peter Chiarelli has already determined who gets traded. He basically said Connor McDavid was untouchable/untradeable and Leon Draisaitl was untradeable as well (perhaps more extremely painfully expensive than untradeable). That tells me he sees Draisaitl as a front-line Centre.

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was the signature piece in a possible Seth Jones trade last season. That tells me his value is still high. That also tells me Peter Chiarelli see him as a prime trade asset, perhaps more than a future Oiler. I won’t be happy if Nuge is traded, but I won’t be surprised.

  30. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    If Columbus is the play, what do you think of letting them free up some cap space by taking on Scott Hartnell as part of a deal. Obviously that would sweeten the deal coming back. He’s at 4.5 million for 3 more season, is 34 and slowing down (though he still put up 49 and 60 points in the last 2 years).

    Again, not saying this because Hartnell is the prize, but rather because taking him frees up a lot of room for Columbus, and that favor might be worth something. On top of that we still have a veteran leader type who can actually contribute in a second-third line role.

    I also think he might be tradeable in that last year of his deal, as his actual salary will be $3million for a $4.5million cap hit. Might be attractive to a basement team.

  31. russ99 says:

    While Scott Howson is employed by the Oilers in a scouting capacity, there’s no way we should make a trade with the Blue Jackets.

    Would much prefer the Oilers make moves based on good unspoiled scouting information and not that Smartest Man in the Room “inside dirt” nonsense that has come back to haunt us myriad times in the last 10 years.

    BTW: I’d move Klefbom well before moving Nurse.

    If the fancies wrongly paint Nurse as a Smid/Jason Smith clone, they also wrongly paint Klefbom as another Lidstrom. Numbers are useless without context.

  32. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stush18:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Well one of your points was he made a trade for a LH dman prospect when we had lots. I assumed you were arguing he should have traded for a RH dman. My bad. That’s what most people’s arguments are when talking about this trade. “Why didn’t he trade for Hamilton! Or subban is availible!” Lol its a piss off.

    Question, would you honestly trade Darnell nurse last year for the 16th and 32nd pick?

    Oh yeah. No. I wasn’t arguing that he should have traded for a RHD. I just was saying it isn’t Reinhart’s fault Chia paid a dear price for him in an area with less need. And Reinhart should be given the proper time to develop.

  33. stush18 says:

    Truth: When the Oilers traded for Reinhart Barzal was on the board.Barzal was #9 on McKenzie’s final draft ranking, and #8 on Lowetide’s.

    So…If the Oilers traded Nurse for Chychrun (#9 on McKenzie & LT this year) + 33 overall (maybe Tyler Benson?) I think the Oilers would win the trade.So much so that I think it would be worth it even when the Oilers need D now. Plus Nurse is a better prospect than Reinhart.

    And have either of those players done anything to help the oilers? Reinhart was actually one of our better dmen at the end of the year. Barzal wild have ended up being a 2nd line right winger at best, and whoever the hell else we could have got wouldn’t matter. You set the developmental clock back to zero, and to behind mcdavids.

    Reinhart is arriving at a good time, not four years into mcdavids contract.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    One way or another we’re all in The Dark

    Fireflies, sparks, lightning, stars
    Campfires, the moon, headlights on cars
    The Northern Lights and The Milky Way
    You can’t see that stuff in the day

    When the earth turns its back on the sun
    The stars come out and the planets start to run around
    Now they call that day is done
    But really it’s just getting started
    Some folks take comfort in that

    Guy Clark, The Dark

    RIP

  35. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Oh yeah. No. I wasn’t arguing that he should have traded for a RHD. I just was saying it isn’t Reinhart’s fault Chia paid a dear price for him in an area with less need. And Reinhart should be given the proper time to develop.

    How was left hand D a less need. All Chiarelli had on left D when he made the trade was Klefbom and Nurse, and a veteran AHL’er in Davidson.

    Basically, a 2nd year player, a graduating CHl’er, and a graduating AHL’er. Basically, one proven LHD.

    There is no way anyone could view Simpson or Musil as ready last summer.

  36. stush18 says:

    Woodguy,

    The only caveat i would add is that the oilers needed high end prospects on defense, and Reinhart was the only one I’ve heard of becoming availible besides Hamilton and now deangelo (who I would trade for)

    Just because they had some defensive prospects doesn’t mean they just shouldn’t add someone if he’s availible.

  37. wheatnoil says:

    godot10:
    Davidson can play the right side on the 3rd pairing.He did for two years playing with a chaos D in Brad Hunt in the AHL.Davidson is our Hjallmarson.He can play either side.So the left side is Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Reinhart, which is not too many lefties.

    Any defenceman can play their off-side if they have to. What evidence do we have that Davidson is successful at it at the NHL level?

    In contrast, Oesterle, who we don’t talk about so much here, actually does have some evidence of success playing the right side at the NHL level, albeit in a small sample size.

  38. Johnny Gonzo says:

    JustWatt,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfjsn1kKV6I iihf has their own channel, very nice. Maybe a canadian geo block? I’m in Thailand and it’s great.

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Haven’t seen much of Reinhart but when I do he reminds me of the Jason Arnott quote…”I just wasn’t into it tonight!”

    Paraphrasing: I haven’t seen the guy but that doesn’t stop me from assassinating his character.

    I guess not giving a shit is how he got to be captain of the Memorial Cup champions 2 years ago.

  40. Woodguy says:

    russ99,

    BTW: I’d move Klefbom well before moving Nurse.

    If the fancies wrongly paint Nurse as a Smid/Jason Smith clone, they also wrongly paint Klefbom as another Lidstrom. Numbers are useless without context.

    Hi MacT.

    “I think the analytics on players is very important; I disagree with the way it assesses our group a lot of times,” – Craig MacTavish

    Source: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/mactavish-justifies-justin-schultz-one-year-extension-cites-norris-trophy-potential-signs-one-year-bridge-deal-with-edmonton-oilers

    How did disagreeing with the analytics showing the Oilers Dmen were shit work out for MacT?

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: How was left hand D a less need.All Chiarelli had on left D when he made the trade was Klefbom and Nurse, and a veteran AHL’er in Davidson.

    Basically, a 2nd year player, a graduating CHl’er, and a graduating AHL’er.Basically, one proven LHD.

    There is no way anyone could view Simpson or Musil as ready last summer.

    You are wrong, here mon ami.

    Chia wrongly assumed Reinhart was ready to step in to the top 4. He wasn’t. The Islanders kept him in Bridgeport for a reason so they knew he wasn’t ready. Pulock passed him by.

    So, Reinhart was a prospect. Just like Nurse. Ahead of Simpson, Oesterle, Davidson but a prospect.

    LHD prospects plus Klefbom and Marincin. RHD prospects on the other hand? No one.

    LHD prospects were therefore of a lesser need than RHD prospects. I am not saying there was a trade for a RHD available. I am saying Chia overestimated Reinhart’s readiness to play in the NHL and overpaid for it.

    That’s not Reinhart’s fault and they should keep him and let him grow, not trade him for a loss.

  42. Truth says:

    stush18,

    It’s about value. Barzal was listed right ahead of G Matt Murray, C Brayden Point, and RW Travis Konecny in TSN’s Feb. top NHL affiliated prospects.

    Reinhart accounts for $3.2 M against the cap with this bonus structure. UFA’s in this region available this summer… J.M Liles, Luke Schenn, Grossman, Gunnarson, Gilbert, Polak, Russel, Clitsome, Ehrhoff.

    I don’t see Reinhart as a guy that projects to be any better than Luke Schenn. So, selecting Barzal and whoever at 33 overall either re-stocks the incredibly bare prospect system or gives you a very nice trading chip to acquire a legitimate NHL RD. The Oilers can also pick up a Schenn for money only.

    Chiarelli’s idea of trading the picks for an NHL D was a good one. The decision on which player to use those assets to trade for was a very bad one.

  43. Richard S.S. says:

    When Lowetide provided a list of all the Defense in the Oilers’ system, you needed a magnifying glass to find the right-shot Defense. I expect a lot of that LD to get traded this offseason, or be very surprised if it isn’t.

    Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Brandon Davidson are bona fide NHL Defenseman, who unfortunately are left-hand shots. They are followed by many, many more LHD, too many.

    Of the too many, the best NHL-able/NHL-ready LHD are Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart. People will argue about the potentials of each man, but most will agree that Nurse is a top trade asset. Reinhart on the other hand needs an old-fashioned “pump-and-dump” to restore top value. I don’t think Reinhart can be traded, but I fully expect Nurse will be traded.

    Right now I expect the Offseason to move exceedingly slow until the Draft. Chiarelli and those of his caliber must await the indecisiveness of the others.

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    wheatnoil: Any defenceman can play their off-side if they have to. What evidence do we have that Davidson is successful at it at the NHL level?

    In contrast, Oesterle, who we don’t talk about so much here, actually does have some evidence of success playing the right side at the NHL level, albeit in a small sample size.

    Why do we have more evidence on Oesterle than on Davidson? Just a matter of BD’s L/R splits not easily divined? We certainly saw a fair bit of him on the right side over the course of the season.

  45. stush18 says:

    LoDog: That’s what I have been thinking lately. If the Oilers traded Nurse for the 16th and 32nd at this years draft people would lose their minds. Yet a very similar prospect was way too much,

    I think the price paid was fair. The deal was skewed at the time because of the underpayment Calgary got on Hamilton.

  46. DBO says:

    Davidson can babysit someone on the third pair, but better that he has a vet beside him so they can be counted on. Fayne and Sekera are fine as a 2nd pairing.

    Klefbom-????
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson or Davidson-Gryba

    Not awesome, but is it enough for playoffs? Demers? Just money, dont lose any forwards and we can expose Fayne in expansion draft.

  47. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: Nurse + second round pick for Barrie is a great deal for the Oilers. Great.

    Sorry, but despite your usual certainty, that would be terrible.

    You are selling low on Nurse who is coming off his rookie season on a bad team. A guy who has prototypical size, skating and pedigree. A guy who was dominant in junior.

    People want to offer sheet Seth Jones. He is apparently great. A #1.

    His draft year of junior:
    61 14 42 56
    Nurses draft year:
    68 12 29 41

    Jones played on a team that scored 333 goals. Nurse’s team scored 259. Guess which team it was easier to rack up assists on?

    In Barrie you get a guy who has nice boxcars, but is not very good at defensing. He put up 24 of his 48 pts on the PP. He was 6th on the COL in CF%. He never has had to play first pairing.

    Woodguy in fact showed he is not a first pairing defensemen. He is 24 and has played 264 games over 5 seasons. Given his abilities and size, I would really doubt he ever will be.

    So you are giving up a guy who projects to be a top pairing defenseman (and is in the valley of doubt (great saying BTW)) for a guy who has hit his ceiling as a second pairing defenseman AND you are throwing in the 32nd pick as well.

    You sure you were not special advisor to Mike Millbury? Because that trade would really come round and bite you in the ass.

    I have no problem with trading for Barrie. He would help the Oilers with a couple of their issues. But it has to be for something more commensurate with his value and upside.

  48. Bruce McCurdy says:

    stush18: I think the price paid was fair. The deal was skewed at the time because of the underpayment Calgary got on Hamilton.

    Hmmm. The price Calgary paid for Hamilton was a 1st and two 2nds. That’s actually more than he would have cost to sign on an offer sheet in his price range, namely a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd — which also would have been a year later. Is it possible Boston just wasn’;t that sold on the guy that they were prepared to match an offer sheet? They did similar with Kessel, and that worked out not too badly.

  49. kinger_OIL says:

    DBO,

    – You are close to what I say:
    Get the best partner for Klef you can (pray for Klef, his health makes/breaks this D next year)
    Keep Sek-Fayne
    But find a vet for Davidson on 3rd pair.

    – Keep Gryba, put Griff Nurse in AHL, let them come up for injuries.

    – Make another trade at deadline with Fayne + for a UFA like Burns.

    That’s the Kinger 3-step playoff D constuction process

    – If Klef can’t make it, Chia has to go old-school. Chia will know by this summer if Klef is ok.

  50. Ducey says:

    Truth:
    stush18,

    It’s about value.Barzal was listed right ahead of G Matt Murray, C Brayden Point, and RW Travis Konecny in TSN’s Feb. top NHL affiliated prospects.

    Reinhart accounts for $3.2 M against the cap with this bonus structure. UFA’s in this region available this summer… J.M Liles, Luke Schenn, Grossman, Gunnarson, Gilbert, Polak, Russel, Clitsome, Ehrhoff.

    I don’t see Reinhart as a guy that projects to be any better than Luke Schenn.So, selecting Barzal and whoever at 33 overall either re-stocks the incredibly bare prospect system or gives you a very nice trading chip to acquire a legitimate NHL RD.The Oilers can also pick up a Schenn for money only.

    Chiarelli’s idea of trading the picks for an NHL D was a good one.The decision on which player to use those assets to trade for was a very bad one.

    That’s not a fair comparator. Reinhart costs less than a million on the cap. If he was to hit all his bonus triggers to get his full bonus he would a hell of a lot better than Luke Schenn; the Oilers would be over the moon.

    Apples and oranges.

  51. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    DBO:
    Davidson can babysit someone on the third pair, but better that he has a vet beside him so they can be counted on. Fayne and Sekera are fine as a 2nd pairing.

    Klefbom-????
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson or Davidson-Gryba

    Not awesome, but is it enough for playoffs? Demers? Just money, dont lose any forwards and we can expose Fayne in expansion draft.

    If by ??? you mean Drew Doughty, then yes that’s enough to make the playoffs.

    We can’t replace 1 guy on this D and make the playoffs. I kinda doubt we can replace 2 and make the playoffs, but I think that’s probably the play.

    We came in 29th, with what we all agree is a very good forward group and relatively competent goaltending.

  52. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I don’t see the point in threatening an offer sheet when it is clear we don’t have a 2nd round pick to offer and that we aren’t going into four 1sts territory? Kekalainen would say buzz off.

    It’s not clear they don’t have a second until we see what happens at this year’s draft, if some sort of deal is made to get BOS their compensation.

  53. Fog of Warts says:

    Last night I blasted through the first third of Which Lie Did I Tell? by William Goldman. This just in. William Goldman is an engaging writer.

    Apart from discussing nearly every Hollywood A-list celebrity you’re ever heard of from a certain era (all the men, at least), he’s mostly talking about the horse race between success and failure. That’s the part that most interests me, because I feel that intensely with my own writing. One doesn’t have just one opinion. Goldman talks about his confidence in his script, the shoot, the finished product, and public appetite (modulo marketing) as multiple separate accounts which need not, at the end of the day, bear much of a relationship to one another.

    A decent script is necessary, of course, but it’s by no means sufficient. A primary function of the script is to attract the right talent. Then if the director doesn’t screw it up, and your editor has the right touch, you’re pretty much guaranteed to get a solid end product. This doesn’t mean the audience will want what you’re serving. He uses as an example of this his movie The Ghost and the Darkness about two terrifying lions with an appetite for man-flesh.

    I also think the time was wrong. Not the time of year when it was released, I mean the time for lions. In our long history, perhaps no other animal has had such graph changes. From being vermin to being gods.

    Now is the cutie-pie stage. Born Free and The Lion King. I don’t think audiences wanted much to hear about these two monsters that shredded so many lives.

    But I also think that if Douglas and Kilmer had been in Butch Cassidy instead of Redford and Newman, you would not remotely be listening to anything I might have to say about Hollywood …

    Goldman makes it clear in the preceding text that he reveres Douglas, but thought that Douglas shot himself in the foot in navigating his joint roles as producer and star.

    I loved “Redbeard”. I thought it was a terrific name; and I thought it was helpful in trying to make the guy mythic. Just that single word, those two syllables and you were talking about someone whose exploits had filled the nights beside a thousand campfires.

    You’ve probably never heard of Redbeard, because he didn’t make it to the final draft.

    Michael wanted Remington to have a history.

    Redbeard had been conceived of as a supporting part, requiring an actor at least as big as Kilmer. They had nibbles from Connery and Anthony Hopkins but there were various conflicts. Casting was not going well. Then Douglas (the producer) shocks everyone and says “hey, I’ll do it”, now also becoming Douglas (the star). Soon Redbeard becomes Remington, and next thing you know, he’s got a back story, too.

    This next scene is one of the worst things I’ve ever written. I actually remember my stomach cramping when I did it. …

    SAMUEL

    Two great tribes of his country fought a terrible civil war for many years.

    KILMER

    And his side lost?

    SAMUEL

    Everything. Land and family. The very young ones and the very old ones. All lost. He buried his family and left his country forever. Now he hunts all over the world but he always returns here. He says Africa is the last good place.

    Well, William, I’ve got good news and bad news. Your stomach was right.

    This is what that speech and ensuing references to Remington’s past do to this legendary figure: They make Remington a wimp. They make him a loser. He’s just another whiny asshole who went to pieces when the gods pissed on him. “Oh, you cannot know the depth of my pain” is what that seems to be saying to the audience. Well, if I’m in that audience, what I think is this: Fuck you. I know people who are dying of cancer, I know people who are close to vegetables, and guess what—they play it as it lays.

    [emphasis in original]

    THE PROBLEM IS YOU DEVELOP A PAST

    [all caps in original—you know, there is this CSS mark-up called “display caps” where it renders in all-caps, but clipboards as written; in any case, don’t feel bad, lately The New York Times has also fallen off the turnip wagon with their author bylines]

    Do we play it as it lays, ten years later? Sometimes I wonder.

    Of course, this applies to both the good, the bad, and the lottery balls (welcome to the club, Toronto—no hard feelings about what you said last year, we know your pain).

    I don’t totally agree with Goldman’s illustrative inner thoughts. For many, loss of family is worse than loss of self—and every bad movie ever made plays this as the moral vengeance trump card, in which the hero has to do some otherwise despicable thing, and it’s the only way to secure audience sympathy through the middle act.

    ———

    The Willie Mays of Firemen

    Goldman is conversing with a retired Irish fireman.

    Then I asked it: “Did you ever know a great fireman?”

    He looked at me. “I don’t know what ‘great’ means here.”

    I’ll let you all guess how this question was clarified. Imagine you’re on the second floor of a tenement about to explode. Then you hear a baby. You’ve got a wife and son of your own, but without even pausing you begin kicking doors. Goldman tells this better, but I can only justify cribbing so many words.

    Because now I am going to tell you among the saddest and most important things I have in my arsenal. That incredible act of heroism the Willie Mays of firemen did?

    This is what Sylvester Stallone does in an action picture before the opening credits start to roll. This is what Arnold Schwarzenegger does in an action picture before breakfast. This is what Harrison Ford and Mel Gibson do in their action pictures before they’ve brushed their teeth!

    Stars to do not—repeat—do not play heroes

    —stars play gods.

    For me, that’s not the depressing part. It’s the converse theorem that’s the depressing part.

    Plus one more thing to remember: what is genuinely heroic in life may not work for film. It simply, as they way, won’t shoot.

    Real heroes? Paul Rusesabagina (shoots), Ken Taylor (doesn’t shoot).

    Consider now the diagonal box, what does Catch Me If You Can have in common with Wolf of Wall Street? Protagonists who played “god” in real life, followed by an lengthy exorcism behind bars (from which the asshole of the pair emerges true to form).

    Canada’s Man in Iran

    In 1988, the CIA’s involvement in the escape became public knowledge for the first time. The 2012 film Argo, directed by Ben Affleck, played up the U.S. spy agency’s role in the escape at the Canadians’ expense, omitting Sheardown’s role in the caper and falsely implying that the Canadian government was willing to leave the six Americans behind after closing the embassy.

    Curiously, this is the same Affleck discussed here: Sam Harris Discusses His Ben Affleck Debate (edifying for omnivores who don’t chew cud in public). True story: Harris came to his controversial political views by way of MDMA and magic mushrooms, as he freely recounts in his book Waking Up: A Guide to Spirituality Without Religion—sorry, Sam, I just can’t follow you there (not even through the other doors).

    ———

    Misery, as Goldman recounts, didn’t get made for a long time because Stephen liked it too much, and didn’t much like any of the other movies made from his books, except for Stand By Me [*] by Rob Reiner, so it turns out that only Reiner could draw Excaliber.

    [*] King somehow juked me out of my shoes there, and forced me—by pure psychic power—to capitalize a preposition in title style. The man is surely a freak of nature.

    Goldman makes a big deal in this chapter about his passion to retain the original version of the hobbling scene (the book version with the axe and propane torch that even Pulp Fiction only dares to imply; Goldman does have a point, in a later chapter, when he suggests that Annie Wilkes and Hannibal Lecter might have made a cute couple).

    I had read enough of King to know this: of all the phee-noms that have appeared in past decades, King is the stylist. If he ever chooses to leave the world that has made him the most successful writer in living memory, he won’t break a sweat. The man can write anything, he is that gifted.

    According to Goldman, every A-list actor in Hollywood turns the Paul Sheldon part down: Hurt, Kline, Douglas, Ford, Hoffman, DeNiro, Pacino, Dreyfuss, Hackman, Redford, Beatty.

    Here’s how Caan got the job. He needed redemption.

    “I will pee in a bottle for you,” he said. “I will pee in a bottle every day.”

    Goldman claims that anyone but Reiner would have given up before even getting to Caan.

    We knew the role was less flashy. Had to be, the guy’s in the sack most of the movie. We also knew he was under the control of the woman, something stars hate. But we also felt the movie was essentially what the Brits call a “two-hander.” The Paul Sheldon character is not only the hero, he’s in almost every scene.

    So much for the 20-minutes-a-night all-situations complementary role player.

    ———

    Well, I’ve mashed Goldman to high heaven, and I just can’t make this man uninteresting, any odd way you cut it.

    ———

    There’s a bonus anecdote from Robert McKee (famous screen writing guru who plays himself as a fool in Adaptation).

    Can you learn to write movies?

    No easy answer, but I would say if you have zero facility for the form, no. If you have some [facility] … at the very least you will not write something like this …

    OPEN UP ON A HALL IN A CASTLE. Medieval times. Footsteps are heard.

    KING

    Where are my troops?

    PRIME MINISTER

    Mounting up, sire.

    CRIES ARE HEARD FROM SOMEWHERE.

    PRIME MINISTER
    (to a guard)

    See what that was.

    THE GUARD DEPARTS

    KING

    I did not like that sound.

    Hey, that could work, if the madness of King George had been misophonia and he was prone to dressing himself with his pants on backwards and not finding out (no-one is willing to say a thing) until he splits the seam.

    My lemon tree loves that word, “misophonia”. She’s always telling me halfway through my bag of chips, “see, it’s a real thing.”

  54. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I don’t see the point in threatening an offer sheet when it is clear we don’t have a 2nd round pick to offer and that we aren’t going into four 1sts territory? Kekalainen would say buzz off.

    Why exactly won’t the Oilers have their 2017 2nd?

  55. Truth says:

    Ducey,

    Reinhart costs less on the cap because he’s not good enough to meet his bonuses. However, due to the Oilers roster makeup of so many bonus eligible players he might as well count against the cap because it limits the teams ability to spend right up to it. The issue is exactly that he’s not good enough to meet his draft expectations (and Oilers expectations when they traded for him).

  56. vinotintazo says:

    Woodguy: Why exactly won’t the Oilers have their 20172nd?

    dont they have to give it to BOS? I doubt they give their 2016 32nd OVA.

  57. stush18 says:

    Truth:
    stush18,

    It’s about value.Barzal was listed right ahead of G Matt Murray, C Brayden Point, and RW Travis Konecny in TSN’s Feb. top NHL affiliated prospects.

    Reinhart accounts for $3.2 M against the cap with this bonus structure. UFA’s in this region available this summer… J.M Liles, Luke Schenn, Grossman, Gunnarson, Gilbert, Polak, Russel, Clitsome, Ehrhoff.

    I don’t see Reinhart as a guy that projects to be any better than Luke Schenn.So, selecting Barzal and whoever at 33 overall either re-stocks the incredibly bare prospect system or gives you a very nice trading chip to acquire a legitimate NHL RD.The Oilers can also pick up a Schenn for money only.

    Chiarelli’s idea of trading the picks for an NHL D was a good one.The decision on which player to use those assets to trade for was a very bad one.

    Well there were no RH dmen availible. So he traded for the best availible LH prospect.

    Comparing him to like schemn is ridiculous. Reinhart is a better skater and passer. If Reinhart had cashed on one of his many pinches this year his stay line would look very good.

    As for your list, I wouldn’t have any of them on my team and Russell will have a much higher contract than 3 mill.

    The verdud speaks

  58. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Sorry, but despite your usual certainty, that would be terrible.

    You are selling low on Nurse who is coming off his rookie season on a bad team.A guy who has prototypical size, skating and pedigree. A guy who was dominant in junior.

    People want to offer sheet Seth Jones. He is apparently great. A #1.

    His draft year of junior:
    61 14 42 56
    Nurses draft year:
    68 12 29 41

    Jones played on a team that scored 333 goals. Nurse’s team scored 259. Guess which team it was easier to rack up assists on?

    In Barrieyou get a guy who has nice boxcars, but is not very good at defensing. He put up 24 of his 48 pts on the PP.He was 6th on the COL in CF%. He never has had to play first pairing.

    Woodguy in fact showed he is not a first pairing defensemen. He is 24 and has played 264 games over 5 seasons. Given his abilities and size, I would really doubt he ever will be.

    So you are giving up a guy who projects to be a top pairing defenseman (and is in the valley of doubt (great saying BTW)) for a guy who has hit his ceiling as a second pairing defenseman AND you are throwing in the 32nd pick as well.

    You sure you were not special advisor to Mike Millbury? Because that trade would really come round and bite you in the ass.

    I have no problem with trading for Barrie. He would help the Oilers with a couple of their issues. But it has to be for something more commensurate with his value and upside.

    I would do that Barrie deal.

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds,

    Boston isn’t going to do Chia any favours so that he can offer sheet some team. The threat of that was one of the major triggers that caused conflict to begin with.

    2nd round pick this year or next.

  60. flyfish1168 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I don’t see the point in threatening an offer sheet when it is clear we don’t have a 2nd round pick to offer and that we aren’t going into four 1sts territory? Kekalainen would say buzz off.

    If we are threatening I’m confident other teams are thinking the same. That is why you come up with a trade. Kekalainen has many fronts and a poorly managed CAP to worry about. He won’t be ignoring any threats

  61. Woodguy says:

    vinotintazo: dont they have to give it to BOS? I doubt they give their 2016 32nd OVA.

    why?

    2016 32nd isn’t worth that much.

    Draft class isn’t that deep.

    I’d do it so I had the certainty of the 2017 for the ability to “threaten” an offer sheet.

    By many accounts they get discussed way more than actually get signed so the perception is that they are rarely used.

    They are rarely used overtly, but get discussed way more.

    Perhaps it was Chia who talked offer sheet on Hamilton that prompted BOS to trade him?

  62. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    vinotintazo: dont they have to give it to BOS? I doubt they give their 2016 32nd OVA.

    This. Everyone keeps talking about working out a deal. Why would Boston settle for less than they are entitled to? Especially if it prevents Chia from using offersheets as a tool this summer? They don’t like him, remember?
    2016 or 2017 2nd.

  63. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Why do we have more evidence on Oesterle than on Davidson? Just a matter of BD’s L/R splits not easily divined? We certainly saw a fair bit of him on the right side over the course of the season.

    That wasn’t clear of me. I didn’t mean to imply that we haven’t seen him on the right side (I believe he played the right with Sekera and Klefbom). However, his WOWYs were worse in those situations compared to away from them. The problem, of course, being that he also moved up in quality of competition in those roles. So we don’t know if his drop in corsi is due to being on the right or competition or both. We don’t know how he would do playing 3rd pair on the right.

    So, what I meant was, we don’t have clear evidence of Davidson being successful at the NHL level on the right side. Hence my caution of being so sure we can easily pencil him into that role. (That’s different, of course, than saying he can’t play that role).

    With Oesterle, we know he played 2nd pair opposition, had mildly positive corsi-rel, and pulled his partner (Reinhart) up in regards to possession.

    Interestingly, Overall, Oesterle played about the same amount of minutes on the right as Davidson did over the course of the year (assuming Oesterle played the right with Reinhart and Davidson did so with both Sekera and Klefbom).

    We have some evidence of Oesterle holding his own in a small sample size against middle opposition.

    We don’t necessarily know with Davidson because his WOWYs were worse but he was batting up the order.

    (As I write that out, I realize my point was entirely unclear by initial post, so thanks for pushing me to clarify)

  64. kevin says:

    Isn’t Pulock a RHD? If the Islanders needed a RHD from the minors wouldn’t they normally just go with the proper handedness? A lot of it depends on opportunity.

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Chia wrongly assumed Reinhart was ready to step in to the top 4. He wasn’t. The Islanders kept him in Bridgeport for a reason so they knew he wasn’t ready. Pulock passed him by

  65. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    flyfish1168,

    Threatening an offer sheet on a guy you are looking to trade for has not worked out for the teams doing the threatening.

    Kessel? Paid more than the offersheet compensation because Burke didn’t want to be seen as a hypocrite.

    Hamilton? Chia’s threat and they traded him to Calgary.

    If you want Jones let someone else threaten it. Don’t piss off your trading partner.

  66. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    kevin,

    There were plenty of reports and blog posts from Islanders’ media and websites and viewers that Pulock had passed him up the depth chart quickly.

    Being LEFT handed on the Isles is a plus, not a minus Remember they have Boychuk and Hamonic right-handed.

  67. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    speeds,

    Boston isn’t going to do Chia any favours so that he can offer sheet some team. The threat of that was one of the major triggers that caused conflict to begin with.

    2nd round pick this year or next.

    The marginal difference between a 32OV vs. mid 40’s in 2017 is probably not as much as people think, even less so if it’s true that it’s a somewhat weaker 2nd round this year.

    And probably not enough that they should throw away OS options if they look at the market and think that’s something they may want or feel like they may have to pursue.

  68. John Chambers says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Hmmm. The price Calgary paid for Hamilton was a 1st and two 2nds. That’s actually more than he would have cost to sign on an offer sheet in his price range, namely a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd — which also would have been a year later. Is it possible Boston just wasn’;t that sold on the guy that they were prepared to match an offer sheet? They did similar with Kessel, and that worked out not too badly.

    Hmm, I definitely don’t see the price Calgary paid to acquire Hamilton as being “fair”. Burke fleeced Boston, and Bruins management should be criticized for their handling of the “asset”.

    You make a good point inasmuch as the potential cost for the player might’ve been a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rd pick in 2016, with Boston advancing the 1st and 2nd by a year … but the probability of finding a player of Hamilton’s calibre (and scarce value) amongst those picks is low, even if two of them become everyday NHL players.

    Ultimately there were several GM’s (including Boston’s recently fired ex-GM) interested in paying Hamilton $5.5M+ over term, therefore Boston should’ve recognized the player’s market value and themselves signed the player, opting to trade him for the best return.

    I think it’s fair to conclude that Boston earned a poor return and likely turned down a #16 OV pick, #32 OV pick, and more (Yakupov? Marincin?), or over-reacted to Burke threatening them with an offer sheet. If I remember correctly I think there were GM’s who were surprised Hamilton had been traded, meaning Neely & Sweeney hadn’t fully explored the player’s value on the trade market.

  69. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds,

    I am probably applying time value of money principles, perhaps thus creating a blind spot for me. I would rather have a prospect at 32 one year sooner than not. Let alone the fact you can’t really gp anywhere but higher fron last year.

  70. flyfish1168 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    flyfish1168,

    Threatening an offer sheet on a guy you are looking to trade for has not worked out for the teams doing the threatening.

    Kessel? Paid more than the offersheet compensation because Burke didn’t want to be seen as a hypocrite.

    Hamilton? Chia’s threat and they traded him to Calgary.

    If you want Jones let someone else threaten it. Don’t piss off your trading partner.

    That is exactly what is happening. They look at Chia and they know he might. He doesn’t have to be the 1st to offer sheet. I’m sure there are many in line if Chia doesn’t. The key is to get the trade talks happening prior to the offer sheet. Just like last year with Hamilton. the talk does it. there was no offer sheet.

  71. Yeti says:

    Ducey: So you are giving up a guy who projects to be a top pairing defenseman

    Except he doesn’t.

  72. speeds says:

    Woodguy: why?

    2016 32nd isn’t worth that much.

    Draft class isn’t that deep.

    I’d do it so I had the certainty of the 2017 for the ability to “threaten” an offer sheet.

    By many accounts they get discussed way more than actually get signed so the perception is that they are rarely used.

    They are rarely used overtly, but get discussed way more.

    Perhaps it was Chia who talked offer sheet on Hamilton that prompted BOS to trade him?

    It might also be something the agents of RFA D would notice.

    “Hey, the Oilers gave up a high 2016 2nd. Why would they do that? Maybe my RH D RFA client shouldn’t sign this offer from his club prior to July 1, maybe I can get my client a bigger money offer sheet here?”

  73. Woodguy says:

    Fog of Warts,

    If you’re implying you haven’t played with the doors of perception when you mention that you can’t follow Sam then I’m suprised.

    When I was younger I enjoyed a vacation from regular perception now and again.

  74. Woodguy says:

    speeds: It might also be something the agents of RFA D would notice.

    “Hey, the Oilers gave up a high 2016 2nd.Why would they do that? Maybe my RH D RFA client shouldn’t sign this offer from his club prior to July 1, maybe I can get my client a bigger money offer sheet here?”

    I’m pretty sure there are fairly overt conversations between clubs and agents well before the actual conversation windows open.

  75. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    speeds,

    I am probably applying time value of money principles, perhaps thus creating a blind spot for me. I would rather have a prospect at 32 one year sooner than not. Let alone the fact you can’t really gp anywhere but higher fron last year.

    EDM negotiated a different pick for McLellan than the prescribed one as well.

    Not probable in the Chia/Bos case, but possible.

  76. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy: I would do that Barrie deal.

    I posted this yesterday. Like Barrie and would be eager to add him, but based on the anticipated asset cost (eg Nurse), and Barrie’s mediocre defensive acumen I place him lower on the list of target defensemen … but he is a target all the same:

    Interested to hear how others rank them, but these are my preferences for which D Chiarelli tries to acquire in the coming weeks:

    1) Karlsson – him and McDavid would be a symphony on ice. I think we should be willing to offer multiple high end assets to make it.
    2) Faulk – next best all-around defender who brings a top-shelf powerplay asset.
    3) Goligoski – a great defenseman for only money. Beware of term.
    4) Hamonic – ship may have sailed but his toughness, defensive prowess and leadership would’ve helped tip the scales
    5) Campbell – the next best available D IMO. Oilers could use cap space as an asset to limit term to 2 years, thereby not interfering with McDavid’s next contract.
    6) Vatanen – if the acquisition cost isn’t the pick or a core player (eg Pouliot or Reinhart) then we must make that trade … so long as Vat isn’t asking for more than $5M
    7) Barrie – powerplay offence and some wobbly defense. Would look good on a 2nd pairing with Sek or Klef but we’ll be paying $ for the offence. Will cost something to acquire.
    8) Demers. Solid 2nd pairing D. The Oilers need 2 D this summer and I won’t be disappointed if one is Demers and the other is one of the above.

  77. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I m not saying the pick next year is worth more, I’m just saying that if they think they need next year’s second to get a D via OS, or even think they may possibly need it, they may well prefer:

    2016 2nd – BOS comp
    2017 2nd – part of OS comp to address D now (Jones, Lindholm, Trouba, Barrie, etc.)

    vs.

    2016 2nd – drafted prospect developing
    2017 2nd – BOS comp

  78. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    flyfish1168,

    Threatening an offer sheet on a guy you are looking to trade for has not worked out for the teams doing the threatening.

    Kessel? Paid more than the offersheet compensation because Burke didn’t want to be seen as a hypocrite.

    Hamilton? Chia’s threat and they traded him to Calgary.

    If you want Jones let someone else threaten it. Don’t piss off your trading partner.

    Are you sure that’s the whole list?

  79. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: EDM negotiated a different pick for McLellan than the prescribed one as well.

    Not probable in the Chia/Bos case, but possible.

    I will buy you a beer if Boston takes a lesser deal. These are the guys who some say took a lesser deal from Calgary just to spite Chia.

  80. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds,

    I know what you are saying. What I am saying is that the cost of the offer sheet is arguably higher if you give up 32nd this year to make it happen, vs. a mid-40s next year.

  81. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: Are you sure that’s the whole list?

    No, of course not. We will never know what goes on in backroom negotiations before trades happened if they aren’t leaked like those two.

    On the other hand can you show me an example where a known offer sheet threat from one team resulted in that team getting a better deal than said offer sheet?

    I don’t think threatening an offer sheet has much merit. Either trade for the guy or just make the offer sheet.

  82. Ducey says:

    speeds:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I m not saying the pick next year is worth more, I’m just saying that if they think they need next year’s second to get a D via OS, or even think they may possibly need it, they may well prefer:

    2016 2nd – BOS comp
    2017 2nd – part of OS comp to address D now (Jones, Lindholm, Trouba, Barrie, etc.)

    vs.

    2016 2nd – drafted prospect developing
    2017 2nd – BOS comp

    The result could be (and given history most certainly would be);
    2016 2nd – #32 BOS Comp
    2017 2nd – #40 (or so) part of offer sheet which is then matched.

    So you go from #32 to maybe #40 (or lower should the Gords permit) and a year later.

    Edit: What that backpacker guy said.

  83. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    It is higher, but the amount that it is higher (a) is dwarfed by the difference in value depending where the 1st round pick ends up, if we’re talking about a 1st+2nd+3rd OS and (b) not enough to stop a deal when it comes to addressing the D, most likely. Consider what they gave up for Reinhart as compared to the marginal difference we’re talking about in the value between 2nd rounders as it relates to potentially adding a Barrie, etc.

  84. speeds says:

    Ducey,

    It’s possible that happens, but if it does the marginal difference is not that much. Likely not enough to intentionally cut off your options to address the D in the context of the current market.

  85. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds,

    I guess in discussing the minutae my bigger picture point has been lost. But I have enjoyed discussing the minutae so no regrets.

    In order to have 2017 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders ready, the Oilers have to commit to giving Boston 32nd overall this year.

    Replacing 32 maybe why the rumored asking price for Yak was two 2nd round picks.

    If we see Chia give Boston 32 then we have some inkling he is prepping an offer sheet. Who is out there that he may target this summer for that compensation? It’s not Jones because Columbus will match.

    Vatanen? Barrie?

    It’s just not a tool that currently looks appealing to me. But there is still time between now and the draft–when we will know Chia is up to something if he gives up that pick. Because otherwise 32nd this year is worth more than 40-ish next year.

  86. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: No, of course not. We will never know what goes on in backroom negotiations before trades happened if they aren’t leaked like those two.

    On the other hand can you show me an example where a known offer sheet threat from one team resulted in that team getting a better deal than said offer sheet?

    I don’t think threatening an offer sheet has much merit. Either trade for the guy or just make the offer sheet.

    I’m glad that you agree that coming to conclusions on what happens during negotiations about which we have zero information is a bad idea.

  87. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: I’m glad that you agree that coming to conclusions on what happens during negotiations about which we have zero information is a bad idea.

    Lol, I see what you did there. If it wasn’t clear that it was my opinion that the Bruins won’t give the Oilers a break on this one, I apologize. Of course I don’t know what I don’t know. But I can guess, and buy you a beer if I am wrong. 😉

  88. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I don’t know that it looks like the best option to me either. I’m just saying I also don’t find it hard to believe that, as we get nearer the draft, it seems possible that Chiarelli finds he’s not close on any deals he likes, or players move in different deals, or Demers has already re-signed, or whatever, and that the marginal difference in value in that case is not weighing large on his mind as compared to cutting off OS possibilities.

  89. kevin says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": Being LEFT handed on the Isles is a plus, not a minus Remember they have Boychuk and Hamonic right-handed.

    Still don’t agree. You need 3 D for the right side. When the trade was made the Islanders had more experienced LHD than RHD.

  90. BONVIE says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Paraphrasing: I haven’t seen the guy but that doesn’t stop me from assassinating his character.

    I guess not giving a shit is how he got to be captain of the Memorial Cup champions 2 years ago.

    Well said Bruce.

  91. su_dhillon says:

    The idea of trading Nurse is so interesting partly because I think the wide gap of opinions we see here, from the group that is certain that he is going to be a top pair D to the more conservative one that thinks there is a good chance he doesn’t get to that level despite how great his tools are is probably mirrored in NHL front offices.

    I am in the camp that thinks he becomes a quality NHL player but real concern that he ever brings enough offense or elite defending to be a legit top pair player, there is still hope but the evidence needs to come quick.

    So if I could trade him in a deal where I got a top pair D or even a top 4 RHD that brings offense I think that is worth the risk that he figures it all out and becomes that guy. Even if he does become that guy it won’t be this year and not likely that its next year.

    I absolutely feel there are 10-12 GMs that look at his skills and demeanor and don’t care about the results so far and would give you Full Value maybe Plus value. if one of those GMs have guy that fits your need today in top 4, you make that deal. The problem is that I think that PC and the Oilers are among those 10-12 GMs meaning they have no intention of trading him.

  92. Truth says:

    stush18:

    Comparing him to like schemn is ridiculous. Reinhart is a better skater and passer. If Reinhart had cashed on one of his many pinches this year his stay line would look very good.

    What makes you say that? You say you prefer Reinhart to Nurse. Yet Nurse, is bigger, stronger, faster, shoots harder, and plays more aggressive. Luke Schenn is Griffin Reinhart in 4 years if Reinhart is lucky. Very similar stats prior to being drafted and were both (wrongly) drafted in the top 5. The exception is Schenn went straight to the NHL, GR couldn’t make the Islanders in the 3 years following being drafted by them, and was a bubble player on the league worst Oilers in his draft +4 season.

  93. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I think I need to summarize my points since I seem to be playing Devil’s Advocate today.

    All opinions are my opinions, of course. Not facts. Some facts are facts.

    Fact
    1) Edmonton still has to deliver on compensation for the Bruins.
    Fact
    2) Offer sheets can only be done using your own picks.
    Fact
    3) Unless a deal is negotiated the compensation for Boston is 32nd overall this year or the 2017 2nd.
    Fact
    4) Offer sheets are made with 2017 picks.

    Opinion
    1) Columbus matches an offer in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd in 2017 range for Jones.
    2) Threatening them with an offer sheet won’t make them any happier to trade with us or lower the price (there is no evidence either way on this, but we have 2 examples where the threatening team (Toronto and Kessel and Edmonton and Hamilton) did not get a good result).
    3) If you are going to make an offer sheet, just do it, rather than threaten it. In my opinion this helps no one.
    4) The 32nd overall in 2016 is worth more than the 2nd rounder in 2017 due to the time (one year sooner) and the odds that the pick will be higher than 32 are much greater than the odds it will be 31 or 32.
    5) I agree with Speeds that this higher compensation (32nd this year) should not stop you from making an offer sheet if you have a target you think is worth it.
    6) Barrie and Vatanen might be had for 1st, 2nd, 3rd rounder level compensation. I don’t think Jones can.
    7) I don’t anticipate the Bruins will be willing to do any favours to Chia and let him off the hook so he can make an offer sheet without paying full price. i.e. pay the 32nd overall this year.
    8) If Chia gives the 32nd this year to Boston, since that is the highest value pick he can give to them this year (and probably next year) it is likely he is prepping an offer sheet.
    9) If he goes that route he needs to be right.

    As for the other discussion:
    I trade Nurse if it’s for an upgrade (package ok). I don’t trade him straight across for a young, equally unproven RHD.

    Chia brought Reinhart into an overcrowded LHD prospect pool. In my opinion he missed on GR’s NHL readiness. Remember his quote that he expected him to step in at the NHL level. He also had no way to know he would sign Sekera (great move) and that Davidson would deliver.

    I did not say there was someone else who was a RHD whom he should have traded for instead. All I am saying is he paid in full for Reinhart to be an NHL level solution last season and he lost that bet.

    However I like Reinhart and think he still has time to make it. I don’t think he has the same value today as what Chia paid for him. That is not GR’s fault. It is Chia’s. Let GR develop slowly and do not cut your losses on this trade and trade him away now.

  94. JonyPro says:

    I would offer the Jackets GR and Nuge for Seth Jones and 1st round pick. Maybe a 2nd round too. Or even a veteran centre if they are willing.

  95. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    kevin: Still don’t agree. You need 3 D for the right side.When the trade was made the Islanders had more experienced LHD than RHD.

    Lubo was aging and fading.

    Leddy lefty is good.
    The other two best and most experienced D: Boychuk, Hamonic are both righties.

    Being left handed should not have been a detriment to Reinhart here.

    It wasn’t because of his handedness that Snow let him go.

  96. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    just to add to that post, I think they might be able to get Vatanen even without a 2nd, if they went the OS route.

    Here is last year’s compensation chart:

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/latest-news/2015/5/19/8625815/nhl-offer-sheet-compensation-2015-restricted-free-agent-alex-galchenyuk-brandon-saad

    If it’s roughly the same numbers this year, then a 5 year, 5.4M per year OS would cost a 1st and a 3rd, and I’m not sure ANA would match that. I’m also not sure if EDM would want to give up an unprotected first for Vatanen, but that’s a different issue.

  97. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Lol, I see what you did there. If it wasn’t clear that it was my opinion that the Bruins won’t give the Oilers a break on this one, I apologize. Of course I don’t know what I don’t know. But I can guess, and buy you a beer if I am wrong.

    Ha!

    I’ve just heard some stories around the edges and even if 10% of them are true, we really are just flailing away in the dark in terms of info.

    Cheers.

  98. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Here’s a fun thought that I came up with late last week.

    Once the Lightning wrap up their playoff run and I’m Chia I give Steve Yzerman a call and ask him what’s going on with Steven Stamoks. Of course he’s not likely to tell you one way or another but you never know.

    If Stamkos is hell bent on hitting free agency this summer I offer up Yakupov for the rights to Stamkos between whenever and July 1. Yak is as good as gone anyway, TBay has some Russian players and Yzerman is fresh off seeing a troubled asset rebound in a big way. Once you have Stamko’s rights you can lock him in a room with McDavid, Hall, Chia, Nicholson and McClellan and hammer out a deal.

    You bypass Toronto who in a case of free agency would likely have the most cash to throw his way and you get a week or two of intimate one on one time to woo him which could in part help lower the overall cap hit of this deal.

    Why do it? Well the reasons are many.

    Because it completely alters your powerplay to the point where you don’t actually have to hunt for a defensive pp option. (CmD, Stamkos and Hall on the same unit?!?!?), it frees up one or even two of Eberle, Nuge or Drai to complete a trade for another dman, it increases the selling point of this team to Demers by a huge huge margin which in and of itself is huge, it allows the 4th OV pick to be put in play (along with Nuge or Eberle) in a package for Jones, Barrie, Vatanen, Hamonic or whoever else you fancy.

    Thoughts?

  99. Ducey says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Lubo was aging and fading.

    Leddy lefty is good.
    The other two best and most experienced D: Boychuk, Hamonic are both righties.

    Being left handed should not have been a detriment to Reinhart here.

    It wasn’t because of his handedness that Snow let him go.

    They had Hickey who played 163 games for them in the two years before and turned his game around. LH

    They had De Haan, who played 65 games for them the year before and 51 the year before that, and had established himself. LH

    Leddy LH

    Those are the three LH they went with all last season. Its pretty tough to say Reinhart would have been ahead of any of them on the depth chart. In any event, Snow had a surplus.

  100. Woodguy says:

    su_dhillon:
    The idea of trading Nurse is so interesting partly because I think the wide gap of opinions we see here, from the group that is certain that he is going to be a top pair D to the more conservative one that thinks there is a good chance he doesn’t get to that level despite how great his tools are is probably mirrored in NHL front offices.

    I am in the camp that thinks he becomes a quality NHL player but real concern that he ever brings enough offense or elite defending to be a legit top pair player, there is still hope but the evidence needs to come quick.

    So if I could trade him in a deal where I got a top pair D or even a top 4 RHD that brings offense I think that is worth the risk that he figures it all out and becomes that guy. Even if he does become that guy it won’t be this year and not likely that its next year.

    I absolutely feel there are 10-12 GMs that look at his skills and demeanor and don’t care about the results so far and would give you Full Value maybe Plus value. if one of those GMs have guy that fits your need today in top 4, you make that deal. The problem is that I think that PC and the Oilers are among those 10-12 GMs meaning they have no intention of trading him.

    Nailed it.

    There are a lot of “ifs” when it comes to Nurse.

    If you can turn a player full of “ifs” into a confirmed player type that you need and is not easy to get (RD Top 4 Dman) then you have to do it.

    If Nurse hits his full upside you lose that trade long term.

    If Nurse misses his full upside you win that trade long term.

    Either way, while Nurse is “matriculating” towards whatever he is going to be, you win that trade because you have a useful Top 4 RHD from today until the time Nurse becomes whatever he is.

    2 years left on McDavid ELC

    4 years left on Hall’s contract

    Tick, tick, tick, tick………

  101. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    to me, if you kept Marincin then Davidson would have been waived. I prefer Davo of the 2

  102. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey,

    I am on the road at the moment so I can’t go look up the old links. I believe even Woodguy can tell you he found lots of Islanders watchers saying Reinhart had stagnated a bit and been passed on the depth chart. Snow sold high.

    I will try to look up links later.

  103. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Lubo was aging and fading.

    Leddy lefty is good.
    The other two best and most experienced D: Boychuk, Hamonic are both righties.

    Being left handed should not have been a detriment to Reinhart here.

    It wasn’t because of his handedness that Snow let him go.

    After grinding through NYI Dmen results for my Hamonic thing, my opinion of NYI’s Dmen are (in order):

    Hamonic-De Haan —Leddy – – –Boychuck – — — – – – – – – – — – – – Hickey ———————————————————————————————————————- Strait

  104. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    to me, if you kept Marincin then Davidson would have been waived. I prefer Davo of the 2

    Hind sight.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Maybe Davo doesn’t get picked up either?

    We’ll never know.

    I prefer Davidson to Marincin as well.

  105. monsterbater says:

    nurse and #4OV for lindholm?

    Does Anaheim say no?
    Do the Oilers?

    Wouldn’t solve RHD problem and would require klefbom or sekera playing right side but….

  106. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Ducey,

    I am on the road at the moment so I can’t go look up the old links. I believe even Woodguy can tell you he found lots of Islanders watchers saying Reinhart had stagnated a bit and been passed on the depth chart. Snow sold high.

    I will try to look up links later.

    Yeah, it was the Bridgeport Tigers beat guy who said that Reinhart wasn’t the best Dman prospect on the farm for NYI, but Pulock (RHD) had passed him.

    The like Pelech too (LHD, 3rd rounder from same draft as Reinhart)

    Ducey’s right in that Snow did trade from surplus he was *probably* the first LHD call up, but with Strait (LHD) as the 7D he wasn’t critical.

  107. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Klefbom looks like he can handle top pairing duty, Sekera can most definitely be very effective in 2nd pairing duty, and Davidson/Reinhart can cover 3rd pairing duty. Maybe Davo on the right side.

    It’s not giving up on Nurse to think trading him is a good idea. RD is abysmal and LD looks like a position of strength. If Nurse brings in a top 3 RHD (was hoping for Hamonic), then you do that because the team can cover for him on the left side.

    Let’s all just hope Alzner is where Reinhart is heading. Alzner played 20 NHL games in his D+3 (late Bday, so nearly equivalent to D+4 for Reinhart). Alzner did take a massive step in his next season, and some regression in the seasons after. Ideally GR turns into a 2nd pairing defensive anchor that can have strong box protection numbers.

  108. Woodguy says:

    monsterbater:
    nurse and #4OV for lindholm?

    Does Anaheim say no?
    Do the Oilers?

    Wouldn’t solve RHD problem and would require klefbom or sekera playing right side but….

    If you have Lindholm then you try to trade Sekera or maybe even Klef for a RHD.

    I love Klef though and try like hell to keep him.

    If you can get Lindholm for that price you just do it.

    He’s really, really good.

  109. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: Hind sight.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Maybe Davo doesn’t get picked up either?

    We’ll never know.

    I prefer Davidson to Marincin as well.

    Word was Vancouver wanted Davidson in a potential Lack trade at the draft. I think teams, Edmonton included, realized he was rather good. Verbal was he was outplaying MM in OKC.

    It’s like Gustafson who I know you’re unhappy they didn’t sign, another bottom 3 LHD just pushes the next one out of the lineup and off the team. I’m glad that Davidson is the one to stick around, may be my favourite oiler (at least Dman) at the moment.

  110. LadiesloveSmid says:

    monsterbater,

    Lindholm is a #1D, I’d definitely do that. Sekera has a NMC, so either Klef would be his right side which wouldn’t be the end of the world or you’d trade him for his equivalent right shot. Chia should definitely be asking about him this summer

  111. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    are you doing a hard target on David Savard? wondering what he looks like without playing every minute with Jack Johnson

  112. McSorley33 says:

    Ummm……Nurse’s skating is a little bit better than Reinhart?

    Wow.

    Usain Bolt is a’ little bit’ faster than me….

  113. McSorley33 says:

    Woodguy,

    X 1000000000000000000

    He then obtained Korpse.

    With respect, the buck stops at Chia.

    Chia was very, very clear on where he thought Griff would slot this year.

    No way a GM gives up those kind of assets blindly following old management.

    That 1st round pick will haunt this org……for a long time.

  114. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    are you doing a hard target on David Savard? wondering what he looks like without playing every minute with Jack Johnson

    if I can get there before the draft.

    Doing Vatanen then Faulk.

    Gone on vacation for 2 weeks in June so don’t know how much I’ll get done

  115. Generational Poster says:

    Does 4th OV + Reinhart + Yak get you in the area code of 10th OV + Barrie?

    And then sign Demers (or trade Pouliot for Vatanen) and then either run Leon at 3C and add a FA 2RW (Stempniak?) or run Leon at 2RW and add a 3C upgrade over Letestu (Shaw? Sobotka?)

    Plan A
    Pouliot – McDavid – Eberle
    Hall – RNH – Drai / FA
    Maroon – Drai / FA – Kassian
    Hendo – Letestu – Pak

    Klefbom – Barrie
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – Demers
    Nurse

    Plan B
    Maroon – McDavid – Eberle
    Hall – RNH – Drai / FA
    Khaira / Slepy / Drake – Drai / FA – Kassian
    Hendo – Letestu – Pak

    Klefbom – Barrie
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – Vatanen
    Nurse

  116. Woodguy says:

    Rishaug was just on Gregor’ show and said “the feeling I get from them (Oilers) is that Barrie is their guy and they’ll go hard after him.

    I’d love Barrie as 2RD.

    Don’t think he’s ready for 1RD.

  117. Moncton Mounties says:

    kinger_OIL: – Griff is Chia’s guy, Nurse is OBC. I know it doesn’t work like this but I do feel that once they figured out that neither was ready to step into the slots in the NHL that they hoped at the beginning of the year there wa a little bit of: “OK you develop Nurse your way, by feeding him minutes, I’ll develop Griff my way by playing him in AHL and protecting him. Lets see who does better”

    Man, if that’s how they were doing things, I would love to be a fly on the wall for that discussion. And who’s to say that Chiarelli didn’t think that way and simply didn’t tell anyone? Just a line drawn in his own head, trying to see if he was smarter than the smartest men in the room.

  118. Jaxon says:

    I don’t think there is a chance in hell that Columbus moves Seth Jones. They traded their #1 C for him and he is now their franchise player. He was projected #1 overall in his draft year and projects as an elite RD. Every GM knows that is very hard to find and they got lucky that Nashville saw themselves as a contender looking for a specific piece and they were super deep on RD. He played 24:27 in CBJ last year as a 6’4″ 205lbs 20 yr old. Jones will get a good contract this season. David Savard isn’t far off him either so they are set for their top 4 D right side. they’ve got Savard, who played 23:10 last season on an amazing $4.25M, 5 year deal, so they are not trading him away either. That’s 47:37 per game between 2 players. They’re not going anywhere.

    The return I’d look for is Michael Paliotta. 6′-4″ 215lbs, Right D, Captain in Vermont got 36 pts in 41gp last season (14-15) which is an NHLe of 30pts. He is only 22. He could be next year’s Colton Parayko (they are both RD, same age, same size and Paliotta outperformed Parayko last season). Scouting reports have Paliotta as a good skater, shutdown D who found an offensive side to his game.

    From Hockeys future: “A physical blueliner with good size and skating ability. Paliotta has been pegged as a shutdown defenseman in his draft year, but has proven to have an offensive side to his game as his college career has progressed. He has played a key role in the resurgence of the University of Vermont hockey program.”

    I’d try to send them Caleb Jones and Lauri Korpikoski right now ofr Paliotta and Kerby Rychel. Having Caleb is a pretty good ace for a trade with CBJ. they are going into contract talks with their franchise defenceman and could use the leverage of having the opportunity to someday play with his brother, who is no slouch either. If Caleb can get a cup of coffee in the ’17-’18 season and have a chance at cracking the lineup in the ’18-’19 season when Jack Johnson and Fedor Tyutin are UFAs, then CBJ’s blueline may look pretty good with:

    Werenski – S Jones
    Murray – Savard
    C Jones – Prout/Collins

    LD Caleb Jones, LW Lauri Korpikoski ($1.25M retained salary), 2018 4th Round Pick
    for
    RD Michael Paliotta, LW Kerby Rychel, 2017 5th Round Pick.

  119. rickithebear says:

    Oilers EVP/60 min 15 gm
    1.Maroon 2.85
    2. Mcdavid 2.75
    3. Eberle 2.34
    4. Hall 2.30
    5. Drai 2.19
    —————————– top 20 EVP/60 FWD
    6. pouliot 2.03
    Lucic 2.03
    Ericksson 1.97
    ——————————- Top 50
    Toews 1.59
    McGinn 1.56
    7. RNH 1.43
    Shaw 1.33
    8. Yak 1.33
    9. Clandenning 1.26
    10 Pak 1.15
    11. Kassian 1.12
    12 Klefbom 1.08
    13. Korp 1.00
    K. Miller 0.91
    Barrie 0.88
    Demers 0.85
    14. Oeserle 0.82
    Muzzin 0.81
    Vatanen 0.80
    15. Khaira 0.78
    Faulk 0.78
    16. Hendricks 0.75
    17. Davidson 0.61
    18. Letestu 0.60
    Mcnabb 0.51
    19. Gryba 0.44
    20. Sekera 0.39
    21. fayne 0.35
    22. J. Schultz 0.34
    23. lander 0.32
    24. Nurse 0.30
    25. Reinhart 0.13

  120. monsterbater says:

    Woodguy,

    agree and i think sekera would be my preference between him and klef, but that stubborn NMC. I can’t remember who else was in on sekera as a FA, maybe they would be a good target.

  121. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    Reinhart-Barrie could be a solid 2nd pair some day.

    Barrie’s ES P/60 was 1.43 last season!!!

  122. Ducey says:

    Here is a blurb on Eklund’s site about Barrie. A view from the Av’s perspective:

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Rick-Sadowski/Would-Avs-really-trade-Barrie/188/77040

  123. commonfan14 says:

    Sonny trades Hall.

    Fredo trades Nuge.

    Michael trades Drai.

    Which one is Chia?

  124. Lowetide says:

    commonfan14:
    Sonny trades Hall.

    Fredo trades Nuge.

    Michael trades Drai.

    Which one is Chia?

    Michael doesn’t trade Drai. He pressures Moe Green to send him Sami Vatanen and gives Jason Demers an offer he can’t refuse.

  125. russ99 says:

    Woodguy:
    russ99,

    BTW: I’d move Klefbom well before moving Nurse.


    If the fancies wrongly paint Nurse as a Smid/Jason Smith clone, they also wrongly paint Klefbom as another Lidstrom. Numbers are useless without context.

    Hi MacT.

    “I think the analytics on players is very important; I disagree with the way it assesses our group a lot of times,” – Craig MacTavish

    Source: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/mactavish-justifies-justin-schultz-one-year-extension-cites-norris-trophy-potential-signs-one-year-bridge-deal-with-edmonton-oilers

    How did disagreeing with the analytics showing the Oilers Dmen were shit work out for MacT?

    Applying context and disagreeing with how the numbers are applied is not disagreeing with the numbers themselves.

    My point was selling high on Klefbom after 30 games with good yet likely skewed numbers based on one high-level skill (zone-entry passes) with concerns about “specialized equipment” to keep his leg problem from recurring next year seems quite similar as selling low on Nurse after fairly poor numbers where he was given sorties above his ability and playing with mostly subpar partners, behind a forward group that doesn’t especially help on D.

    There’s way too much generalization about what the numbers really mean and wild theories about how the numbers tell us what makes a winning hockey club, when it’s proven that many approaches make a winning hockey club.

  126. AsiaOil says:

    rickithebear,

    Eberle’s esp60 was 1.84 last season and has been on a steady downward trend for 5 seasons. Not sure where you got the other number. Maroon was 1.41 for the season.

    Edit: ok I see you took his 5 year average and then compared a bunch of other guys based on a single year (CMD) or even 20 games in the case of Maroon. Come on Rick – you know that’s bogus

  127. speeds says:

    I asked about this on twitter earlier today, apparantely the 2016 RFA comp chart is out now:

    #CapFriendly CONFIRMED: the new AAV levels for 2016 offer sheets resulting in draft pick compensation are as follows pic.twitter.com/lEB47zdYZ0— CapFriendly(@CapFriendly) May 13, 2016

    Assuming this to be accurate, it would cost a 1st and a 3rd for a 5 year offer sheet at 5.6M for a player.

  128. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: Michael doesn’t trade Drai. He pressures Moe Green to send him Sami Vatanen and gives Jason Demers an offer he can’t refuse.

    Leave the offer sheet, take the cannoli.

  129. Chachi says:

    rickithebear:
    Oilers EVP/60 min 15 gm
    1.Maroon 2.85
    2. Mcdavid 2.75
    3. Eberle 2.34
    4. Hall 2.30
    5. Drai 2.19
    —————————– top 20 EVP/60 FWD
    6. pouliot 2.03
    Lucic 2.03
    Ericksson 1.97
    ——————————- Top 50
    Toews 1.59
    McGinn 1.56
    7. RNH 1.43
    Shaw 1.33
    8. Yak 1.33
    9. Clandenning 1.26
    10 Pak 1.15
    11. Kassian 1.12
    12 Klefbom 1.08
    13. Korp 1.00
    K. Miller 0.91
    Barrie 0.88
    Demers 0.85
    14. Oeserle 0.82
    Muzzin 0.81
    Vatanen 0.80
    15. Khaira 0.78
    Faulk 0.78
    16. Hendricks 0.75
    17. Davidson 0.61
    18. Letestu 0.60
    Mcnabb 0.51
    19. Gryba 0.44
    20. Sekera 0.39
    21. fayne 0.35
    22. J. Schultz 0.34
    23. lander 0.32
    24. Nurse 0.30
    25. Reinhart 0.13

    What’s that Lassie? The well? Who fell down the well?! Timmy fell down the well?! Good boy!

  130. Centre of attention says:

    I would be very pleased if Peter was about to grab Barrie this summer. Love the player, by the looks of things some people seriously underrate Barrie.

  131. Professor Q says:

    Corey Perry is a dirty scumbag.

    That is all.

  132. wheatnoil says:

    russ99: My point was selling high on Klefbom after 30 games with good yet likely skewed numbers based on one high-level skill (zone-entry passes) …

    Klefbom also had good numbers last year, so we are going off more than a 30 game sample. Also, though Klefbom did show quite well at preventing controlled zone entries, he also showed good efficiency in zone exits as well as excellent ability in recovering pucks off dump-ins. He also has an ability to activate in the offensive zone and shows good lateral mobility and overall agility. He also faced the toughest competition.

    I think it’s a bit unfair to say that he only has “one high-level skill” and that this is skewing his numbers. Klefbom is, in my opinion, the Oilers most complete defenceman… which I suppose is somewhat faint praise based on the alternatives, but I don’t think we’re seeing the numbers cooked here.

    Now, the concern regarding recovery from injury you make later is valid and we’ll have to wait and see where he’s at in the Fall before any of us know for sure.

  133. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oiler’s 4th and Nurse will/should get most #1 RHD that Chiarelli might be after. Add in Yak and that will/should get you a 2017 2nd. Offer sheet at $5.6-ish Million x ??? years loses a 1st and a 3rd in 2017. Oilers will still have a 2nd and a 4th for drafting in 2017, and two D this year.

  134. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy: Ducey’s right in that Snow did trade from surplus he was *probably* the first LHD call up, but with Strait (LHD) as the 7D he wasn’t critical.

    Could Demers be 1RD and Barrie 2RD?

  135. godot10 says:

    wheatnoil: Any defenceman can play their off-side if they have to. What evidence do we have that Davidson is successful at it at the NHL level?

    In contrast, Oesterle, who we don’t talk about so much here, actually does have some evidence of success playing the right side at the NHL level, albeit in a small sample size.

    Davidson spent almost all his AHL time as a right defensemen, babysitting Brad Hunt. He has played far more right than left as a professional. His time last year in the NHL was probably at least 25% on the right hand side. The year previous when Nelson called him up, he played mostly on the right side.

    Whereas Osterle spends most of his time in the AHL on the left.

    So Davidson, in his three years as a pro, primarily played on the right side. Osterle in his two year as a pro, mostly on the left side.

    The team needs to be eight D deep, at least.

    The right sides, two new top 4 guys, Davidson, and one of Fayne or Gryba
    The left side, Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Reinhart

    With injuries, all eight will play a lot. Osterle and Musil as #9 and #10 will probably see action too.

  136. stush18 says:

    Jaxon,

    I love the idea ofpaliotta, but I think your trade proposal is a little bent towards the oilers favour.

  137. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    kevin,

    There were plenty of reports and blog posts from Islanders’ media and websites and viewers that Pulock had passed him up the depth chart quickly.

    Being LEFT handed on the Isles is a plus, not a minusRemember they have Boychuk and Hamonic right-handed.

    The Islanders had more depth on the left hand side, and it is younger. Leddy, DeHaan, and Hickey, and they have a veteran Hickey on the 3rd pairing to break in a right shot Pulock, and they didn’t have a right shot 3rd pairing veteran to break in Reinhart.

    So handedness played to Pulock’s advantage.

  138. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: EDM negotiated a different pick for McLellan than the prescribed one as well.

    Not probable in the Chia/Bos case, but possible.

    I think at the beginning of the 3rd round this year, the Oilers will offer the Bruins #92 to try to settle the compensation issue for Chiarelli. And early 3rd this year vs. a mid-pack 2nd next year. The Bruins might bite.

  139. Woodguy says:

    russ99: Applying context and disagreeing with how the numbers are applied is not disagreeing with the numbers themselves.

    My point was selling high on Klefbom after 30 games with good yet likely skewed numbers based on one high-level skill (zone-entry passes) with concerns about “specialized equipment” to keep his leg problem from recurring next year seems quite similar as selling low on Nurse after fairly poor numbers where he was given sorties above his ability and playing with mostly subpar partners, behind a forward group that doesn’t especially help on D.

    There’s way too much generalization about what the numbers really mean and wild theories about how the numbers tell us what makes a winning hockey club, when it’s proven that many approaches make a winning hockey club.

    Not really.

    Depends on who you read.

    Also,

    Oilers have Klefbom on a long term value contract.

    You don’t “sell high” on value contracts.

    You “see high” on player’s whose perceived value is higher than their actual value.

    Klef doesn’t qualify unless you think he’ll be bad for the rest of his career.

    Could happen (has to Brodin so far), but I think that’s a really thin bet.

  140. godot10 says:

    su_dhillon:

    I am in the camp that thinks he becomes a quality NHL player but real concern that he ever brings enough offense or elite defending to be a legit top pair player, there is still hope but the evidence needs to come quick.

    Elite defending. I don’t think there has ever been a Canadian defensemen who defended better than Nurse at the World Juniors. There was none (or close to it…i can remember the exact number…but it was something like zero or one) goals scored at even strength against Canada when Nurse was on the ice. He was on the shutdown pair, facing the best lines.

    What you saw last year was a rookie with no support. Ekblad wasn’t very good as a rookie without Campbell.

  141. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel: Could Demers be 1RD and Barrie 2RD?

    That would be interesting.

    I’d be for tit.

  142. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q:
    Corey Perry is a dirty scumbag.

    That is all.

    He really, really is.

  143. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Elite defending.I don’t think there has ever been a Canadian defensemen who defended better than Nurse at the World Juniors.There was none (or close to it…i can remember the exact number…but it was something like zero or one) goals scored at even strength against Canada when Nursewas on the ice.He was on the shutdown pair, facing the best lines.

    What you saw last year was a rookie with no support.Ekblad wasn’t very good as a rookie without Campbell.

    Ekblad was also 18.

    He also had a done Mitchell and never-was Gubranson as partners for his whole 171 minutes he was apart from Campbell.

    It’s not a good comparison.

  144. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    Any idea what happened re: Brodin? I remember all the talk about him In his rookie year but he doesn’t look very good now.

  145. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: Ekblad was also 18.

    He also had a done Mitchell and never-was Gubranson as partners for his whole 171 minutes he was apart from Campbell.

    It’s not a good comparison.

    Every one has their rookie year.

    Mitchell and Gudbranson are legit 3rd pairing D. Nurse didn’t have anyone as good. When he had Sekera he was playing 1st pairing…too high. When he had Schultz, he had 2nd pairing minutes…too high. And when he was 3rd pairing he had a tweener in Pardy and an AHL’er in Clendenning.

  146. su_dhillon says:

    godot10: Elite defending.I don’t think there has ever been a Canadian defensemen who defended better than Nurse at the World Juniors.There was none (or close to it…i can remember the exact number…but it was something like zero or one) goals scored at even strength against Canada when Nursewas on the ice.He was on the shutdown pair, facing the best lines.

    What you saw last year was a rookie with no support.Ekblad wasn’t very good as a rookie without Campbell.

    I’m not sure how valid that claim is that he was the best Cdn Jr team defender of all time, feels like some hyperbole and I personally find it hard to believe but maybe you are right.

    That being said, based on what we have seen early in his career, Nurse has some work to get there in the NHL and even if he does I don’t think anyone thinks it happens in the next year or 2.

    So even in that case, would I risk trading an elite defender in the 2018 season and beyond for a top 4 RHD that brings more offense in 2016 that I can use for 3-4 years in that role? especially knowing I have Klef , Sekera,Davidson and Reinhart as LHD for the next 3 years? I would.

  147. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy: I’d be for tit.

    Just one…or should the Oilers try to get two?

  148. su_dhillon says:

    Woodguy:

    Either way, while Nurse is “matriculating” towards whatever he is going to be, you win that trade because you have a useful Top 4 RHD from today until the time Nurse becomes whatever he is.

    2 years left on McDavid ELC

    4 years left on Hall’s contract

    Tick, tick, tick, tick………

    Everyone rightly brings up 97’s ELC but WG adding the Hall deal really accentuates how important it is to move up the timeline of assets when possible.

    The Hall deal really is the window, anything beyond that is impossible to predict right now but you know you have 2 elite players at value deals, have to make it count.

  149. godot10 says:

    su_dhillon: I’m not sure how valid that claim is that he was the best Cdn Jr team defender of all time, feels like some hyperbole and I personallyfind it hard to believe but maybe you are right.

    That being said, based on what we have seen early in his career, Nurse has some work to get there in the NHL and even if he does I don’t think anyone thinks it happens in the next year or 2.

    So even in that case, would I risk trading an elite defender in the 2018 season and beyondfor a top 4 RHD that brings more offense in 2016 that I can use for 3-4 years in that role? especially knowing I have Klef , Sekera,Davidson and Reinhart as LHD for the next 3 years? I would.

    My position is that the Oilers don’t have surplus left shot D to trade. I play Davidson on the right side. And that leaves four lefties. Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, and Reinhart….no surplus. One needs four. All four will play. One the right side I have Davidson and Fayne, and the Oilers need to find two guys better to add, without losing any of the existing six. Well, I might trade Reinhart or Fayne in the right deal. The deal would have to be lopsided to for me to trade Nurse. Nurse is a guy that I am willing to develop and wait for. The Oilers aren’t winning the Cup next year. Nurse projects as a mean Jay Bouwmeaster.

    It is much easier to find stop gap forwards than stop gap D.

  150. Truth says:

    Professor Q:
    Corey Perry is a dirty scumbag.

    That is all.

    He can play on my team any day.

  151. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy,

    Any idea what happened re: Brodin? I remember all the talk about him In his rookie year but he doesn’t look very good now.

    Knee injury I think.

  152. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod: Just one…or should the Oilers try to get two?

    Any volume is greater than zero.

  153. Mr DeBakey says:

    russ99: BTW: I’d move Klefbom well before moving Nurse.

    Somebody likes it when his team picks in the Top 10 at the NHL Entry Draft every damn year.

  154. Mr DeBakey says:

    godot10: How was left hand D a less need. All Chiarelli had on left D when he made the trade was Klefbom and Nurse, and a veteran AHL’er in Davidson.

    He had Martin Fuckin Marincin.
    An NHL caliber Defenseman.
    An NHL caliber Defenseman the Oilers had drafted in the 2nd Round.

    Whom they then gave away.

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