STORMY MAY DAY

The Edmonton Oilers are poised to collect yet another ridiculous offensive talent in the 2016 draft. A run that began in 2010 with Taylor Hall—and before if you include Jordan Eberle—continues unabated barring a trade down or out of the first round’s lottery spot (this time No. 4).

Over the years, Edmonton has drafted some of the finest CHL prospects of the century. A good way to measure players is by even-strength scoring, and although we don’t have things like TOI, the points-per-game totals are informative.

EV SCORING CHL OILERS SINCE 2006-7

  1. 2014-15 Connor McDavid 47, 33-42-75 (1.60)
  2. 2013-14 Leon Draisaitl 64, 25-37-62 (.969)
  3. 2009-10 Taylor Hall 57, 22-33-55 (.965)
  4. 2011-12 Nail Yakupov 42, 18-22-40 (.952)
  5. 2006-07 Sam Gagner 53, 14-33-47 (.887)
  6. 2010-11 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 69, 20-27-47 (.681)
  7. 2009-10 Ryan Martindale 61, 13-28-41 (.672)
  8. 2012-13 Marco Roy 65, 16-25-41 (.631)
  9. 2007-08 Jordan Eberle 70, 25-19-44 (.629)
  10. 2009-10 Curtis Hamilton 26, 7-8-15 (.577)
  11. 2012-13 Jackson Houck 69, 15-24-39 (.565)
  12. 2012-13 Greg Chase 69, 13-23-36 (.522)
  13. 2010-11 Tobias Rieder 65, 17-14-31 (.477)
  14. 2011-12 Daniil Zharkov 50, 14-8-22 (.440)
  15. 2012-13 Kyle Platzer 65, 4-17-21 (.323)
  16. 2010-11 Travis Ewanyk 72, 12-10-22 (.306)
  17. 2011-12 Mitchell Moroz 66, 11-8-19 (.288)

We can’t really compare across years and leagues, but the numbers above indicate who had substantial talent (No. 1 through No. 9 were incredible to good) and who did not (Tobias Rieder was an excellent draft pick but his offense was not the sum of his resume).

2016 Draft Picks around No. 4 (EV/GM)

  1. 2015-16 Matt Tkachuk 57, 20-43-63 (1.11)
  2. 2015-16 Pierre-Luc Dubois 62, 29-36-65 (1.05)

You will read many things about Matt Tkachuk in the coming days, and he really is a great young forward. However, if we can agree that even-strength scoring is the purest gauge—and that Tkachuk plays a lot of the game—then it is very difficult to argue the London Knights winger has any clearance at all on Pierre-Luc Dubois in terms of offense. I would also challenge you to read up on Dubois, whose style is a very good fit for Edmonton. That said, it is absolutely possible Matt Tkachuk is the name Edmonton calls (I have Dubois No. 4 and Tkachuk No. 5, but the gap is small).

 

2016 Defense Draft Picks around No. 4 (EV/GM)

  1. 2015-16 Mikhail Sergachev 67, 9-16-25 (0.373)
  2. 2015-16 Jakob Chyrchrun 62, 3-18-21 (0.339)
  3. 2015-16 Olli Juolevi 57, 5-12-17 (0.298)

Darnell Nurse (68, 10-17-27 0.397) in his draft year is a little beyond these three, and Aaron Ekblad in his (58, 6-15-21 0.362) is also in the range. The numbers confirm what we have known for a long time: It is close to impossible for any defenseman to stand out offensively without substantial power-play time.

Ordinarily I disregard this kind of verbal, because every year it seems we hear about activity and then nothing rhymes. I do not think we will see 40 trades around the draft, but would not be surprised to see Edmonton involved in three deals.

belov4

WHCs

  • Elliotte Friedman: One GM had a good line about Vadim Shipachyov, who leads all scorers with 13 points in seven games after the preliminary round. Asked if he was having any luck signing him, the exec replied, “I’m trying like everyone else.” So it’s pretty intense. Czech defender Michal Kempny has some outstanding possession numbers. Source

NHLE’s for Friedman’s Names

  1. R Alexander Radulov, KHL: 80 points. Info here.
  2. LC Vadim Shipachyov, KHL: 73 points. Info here and here.
  3. R Evgenii Dadanov, KHL: 51 points. Info here.
  4. LD Michal Kempny, KHL: 23 points. Info here.

I used Christian Roatis NHL Equivalency tool (it is a grand item) but the KHL conversion appears to be liberal here. That said, Artemi Panarin’s NHLE in 2014-15 suggested 75 NHL points in 82 games—and he scored 77 NHL points in 80 games. A quick final note: Jere Sallinen, who played in the KHL last season, has an NHLE of 25 points. I will track back and discuss him in the coming days. Dustin Nelson had a good look at Euro free agents back in March. Some of the names have been signed but that remains a solid read.

CURRENT OILERS ROSTER

current oilers roster

Miles to go, but this does give us an idea about how much cap room there is this summer. Jon Willis has been working hard on finding good fits with that cap room and it is an area to explore as we reach the draft and free agency. Andrew Ference is not factored in, still assuming LTIR.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST (38)

  1. G Cam Talbot. No. 1 next season.
  2. G Laurent Brossoit. Projects as NHL backup/AHL starter, signed a two-year deal.
  3. G Nick Ellis: Newly signed college free agent.
  4. G Eetu Laurikainen, AHL backup, he is signed for next year.
  5. D Oscar Klefbom, likely top pairing, needs to stay healthy.
  6. D Andrej Sekera, top 4D, important part of the team.
  7. D Brandon Davidson, top 6D, needs better health.
  8. D Mark Fayne, I question Oilers ability to find three better RH this summer.
  9. D Darnell Nurse, probably top 6D next season, ideally in Bakersfield.
  10. D Griffin Reinhart, may spend another year in the minors. Could be dealt.
  11. D Andrew Ference, they will buy him out (if able). LTIR is my guess.
  12. D Joey Laleggia, AHL D matriculating.
  13. D Dillon Simpson, AHL D, matriculating.
  14. D Ben Betker, AHL D, matriculating.
  15. D Caleb Jones, WHL D. Newly signed, definite slide rule.
  16. C Connor McDavid, Giant.
  17. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, quality NHL center.
  18. C Leon Draisaitl, emerging NHL talent.
  19. C Mark Letestu, checking NHL C.
  20. C Anton Lander, they may find a buyer.
  21. C Jujhar Khaira, he is a good bet to make the roster in the fall.
  22. C Bogdan Yakimov, a chance he comes back. Has NHL tools, speed concern.
  23. C Kyle Platzer, AHL C matriculating.
  24. L Taylor Hall, impact NHL player, expert river pusher.
  25. L Benoit Pouliot, underrated by many. Trade rumors.
  26. L Patrick Maroon, big winger has been exceptional since arrival.
  27. L Lauri Korpikoski, Oilers should try to offload him this summer.
  28. L Matt Hendricks, checking NHL W.
  29. L Drake Caggiula. A nice addition, let’s not go crazy on projecting him. 
  30. L Jere Sallinen, Newly signed, going to wheel back and have another look.
  31. L Mitch Moroz, AHL winger/enforcer, matriculating.
  32. L Braden Christoffer, rugged winger, matriculating.
  33. R Jordan Eberle, scoring winger could be in play.
  34. R Nail Yakupov, gone baby, gone.
  35. R Zack Kassian, third and four line winger. Showed flashes. Newly signed.
  36. R Anton Slepyshev, talented winger should push for NHL time.
  37. R Patrick Russell, power forward potential. New signing.
  38. R Greg Chase, minor league winger, matriculating.

WAITING

  1. R Iiro Pakarinen, suspect he will push for a spot next fall. RFA
  2. D Jordan Oesterle. Suspect he signs. RFA.
  3. D Adam Clendening. Foot speed will cost him. RFA.
  4. D David Musil. Three straight solid seasons in the AHL. RFA.
  5. L Luke Gazdic. He is in tough at this points. RFA
  6. R Adam Cracknell. I have no idea if he will be back. UFA.
  7. R Rob Klinkhammer. No feeling either way. UFA.
  8. D Adam Pardy. He played well, doubt there is room. UFA.
  9. D Eric Gryba, UFA. A chance he signs. UFA.
  10. D Nikita Nikitin, UFA. Ufa alright.
  11. D Brad Hunt. Skills are duplicated elsewhere. UFA.
  12. L Josh Winquist. Best offensive prospect in the AHL currently—but does not have an NHL deal.
  13. R Josh Currie At 23, he forced his way into the lineup and played very well. Can also play center.
  14. C Marco Roy. Began slowly, but fought his way up the depth chart and emerged as a solid option.
  15. R Tyler Pitlick. Young veteran is RFA again. If he could only stay healthy.
  16. G Niklas Lundstrom. Signed with Bjorkloven for next year.
  17. L Kale Kessy. Rugged winger, skills duplicated on roster. RFA.
  18. R Andrew Miller. He may have traded himself. No chance he returns imo. UFA.
  19. L Ryan Hamilton. May receive another deal from the Oilers.

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126 Responses to "STORMY MAY DAY"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Punjabi Oil: Wow. Huge! Thanks for grabbing it.

  2. Rondo says:

    PLD interview

    http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=883221

    What forward position are you most comfortable playing? Who were your linemates in the QMJHL playoffs?

    Dubois: “I like playing center, but if I were put on wing I’d probably prefer right wing. But wherever I’m needed, I’m willing to play at that position.

  3. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Watching Laine feed Jokinen for that gorgeous goal just now makes me wheep. He is going to be better than Matthews, he is 5 months younger, already 6’4 210, if he keeps trending the way he has this year Winnipeg is going to be so skilled next year. Best thing they ever did was trade Ladd no room when Ehlers, Connor, Laine are all going to be fighting for a spot in camp. Plus they already have 2 great centres, 4 top defencemen, and some good young goalies.

    When watching Tkachuk during the mem cup remember that he had a high ankle sprain against Niagra and played through, he is basically playing with 1.5 ankles right now.

  4. Richard S.S. says:

    Punjabi Oil: Amazing, thank you.

    Lowetide: Are any of the Russians, still available, of value to the Oilers now?

  5. J-Bo says:

    I wonder if the play at the draft might be to trade down for straight picks, grab one of the defensive prospects and then target a player like Alex Debrincat? The Oil may be able to move up into the late first round and grab Debrincat with their second round picks. From a prospects standpoint this would appear to check some important boxes.

    On another note… I was at the Knights game last night and while it was an impressive showing for the team, both Tkachuk and Joulevi (sorry about the spelling) weren’t all that impressive. That doesn’t mean much, as an Oiler fan I was simply hoping to see more from these two.

  6. Water Fire says:

    I missed last night’s comments, and would like to mention that San Jose Pete DeBoer is the same Pete that was ruining Larsson and played a horrible type of hockey.

    These coaches are smart and there is a lot going on we don’t see. The good coaches will play to what they have. DeBoer suddenly has veteran skill and is running with it. McLellan had a pile and sculpted it into a better shape.

    Not a lot of options, yet.

    I hope Chiarelli has a great season. It’s time.

  7. PunjabiOil says:

    PLD over Tkachuk in my opinion due to the following

    1. Size
    2. Versatility to play both C and W.
    3. 6 months younger
    4. History of proving ability to drive the bus (lead team in scoring by 20 points) versus being a passenger

    Tkachuk may end up being solid but no doubt in my mind PLD will end up as the superior prospect.

    It’s not really a mistake the Oilers can afford to make after Reinhart/Barzal gate last season

  8. square_wheels says:

    I could watch Datsyuk handle the puck all day, but too bad the Wings won’t see it anymore.

    At what point do they admit that their “rebuild on the fly” is only going to perpetuate mediocrity ?

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    So, 8″ of heavy, wet snow up here in the Peace. Power went out about midnight Friday. Went to relatives, power came back about 6pm and so did we. Our Mayday tree just outside the porch, which just a few days ago was full of honey bees, had snapped with the weight of the snow across the doorway to the house. Grab the chainsaw from the shop, five minutes and we’re in, with groceries and most importantly, a promising Malbec.

    At least it was less worrying than the wildfire I could see from my bedroom window two weeks ago.

    Who’d live in the country, eh?

    Like us, I think coaches try to work with what they have. I hated DeBoer and the style he implemented in NJ, but I really like the style he employs in SJ.

    McDavid goes nova today. Book it.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    square_wheels:
    I could watch Datsyuk handle the puck all day, but too bad the Wings won’t see it anymore.

    At what point do they admit that their “rebuild on the fly” is only going to perpetuate mediocrity ?

    When they stop making the playoffs every freakin’ year?

  11. square_wheels says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Born and raised in the Grimshaw area, wouldn’t trade the north for anything – wet snow and all.

    I don’t think Detroit makes the playoffs in the west, their a fading club. I don’t see any elite replacements at C coming to them soon.

    More of an observation on how some teams refuse to embrace rebuilds, although the counter argument could be trust your draft board.

    The Wings are a team that I think could be stuck.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    So, 8″ of heavy, wet snow up here in the Peace.Power went out about midnight Friday.Went to relatives, power came back about 6pm and so did we.Our Mayday tree just outside the porch, which just a few days ago was full of honey bees, had snapped with the weight of the snow across the doorway to the house.Grab the chainsaw from the shop, five minutes and we’re in, with groceries and most importantly, a promising Malbec.

    At least it was less worrying than the wildfire I could see from my bedroom window two weeks ago.

    Who’d live in the country, eh?

    Like us, I think coaches try to work with what they have.I hated DeBoer and the style he implemented in NJ, but I really like the style he employs in SJ.

    McDavid goes nova today.Book it.

    Be safe. Lordy.

    It was the winter of 1971. We were driving from Burns Lake BC to Maidstone SK, and stopped in NoJack overnight. We were driving a 1965 red GMC 3/4 truck packed with everything we owned. It was so cold that night I remember freezing in the hotel room (it was a very old hotel).

    Next morning, truck won’t start. My Dad, in the parking lot of the Nojack Hotel, built a fire under the oilpan. It turned after about five minutes. Nojack shit. It happened just like that.

  13. OF17 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Big development

    Oilers can make an offersheet and defer compensation to Boston until 2018 if successful

    https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.ca&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.tvasports.ca/2016/05/20/la-fin-dune-mauvaise-decision/&usg=ALkJrhhvMeWrkxAcApyKqfKh8h1ChEaF6Q

    That certainly makes things interesting. Problem is, we’ve already paid for McLellan, and any RFA in the $1.8 to $3.6 range that would use our 2nd is either too unproven to be worth a winning bid, likely available for less than a 2nd in trade, or both. Unless we’re talking about a 1st, 2nd, 3rd type bid in the $5.4 to $7.3 range, but who’s honestly good enough for that, Jaden Schwartz? Mike Hoffman? If we were still searching for a LW for Hemsky, we could probably use that to our advantage, but unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be the case.

    Rondo:
    PLD interview

    http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=883221

    What forward position are you most comfortable playing? Who were your linemates in the QMJHL playoffs?

    Dubois: “I like playing center, but if I were put on wing I’d probably prefer right wing. But wherever I’m needed, I’m willing to play at that position.

    That’s certainly good news. Obviously a C is worth more than a W, and given he prefers RW, that opens the possibility of a Hall-Draisaitl-Dubois line in the future. 2-3 years from now that could be the most “Western Conference” line in the Western Conference. Also opens up some serious matchup concerns for opponents. How do you build a D corps that can handle both McDavid’s pure speed and offense and the Hall line’s physical gifts? LA would want Kopitar-Doughty out against both lines.

    Wow, Dubois preferring C/RW is actually great news. Not to mention, if teams see him as a C, the trade value of that #4 pick goes up significantly.

  14. Jethro Tull says:

    square_wheels:
    Jethro Tull,

    Born and raised in the Grimshaw area, wouldn’t trade the north for anything – wet snow and all.

    I don’t think Detroit makes the playoffs in the west, their a fading club. I don’t see any elite replacements at C coming to them soon.

    More of an observation on how some teams refuse to embrace rebuilds, although the counter argument could be trust your draft board.

    The Wings are a team that I think could be stuck.

    We live just south of Dixonville.

    Datsyuk is my absolute favourite player, but McDavid is fast catching up!

    Yeah, I get what you’re saying, it seems like they’re slowing slip-sliding into mediocrity, but every it seems like they’re down, they come right back.

    Don’t be surprised if Stamkos isn’t donning that big red winged wheel this fall!

  15. Ducey says:

    Good thread LT. Lots to chew on.

    Wonder if the Oilers are still interested in Prokhorkin (sp?). It sounded like LA wanted to get rid of him and the Oilers were interested at the deadline. Not sure of his status but you may want to add him to the list of targets.

  16. Beans says:

    Dubois is great I have read that multiple times but the small gap in skill doesn’t make up for what Tkachuk brings in leadership skills I think. There was a good article yesterday about how Dubois plays a lot like what the oilers already have with a level of inconsistency to his physical play. Tkachuk on the other hand is the complete opposite of what the oil have and everything they need in tenacity and attitude. I personally want the oil to take tkachuk, he would be perfect with Mcdavid.

  17. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Be safe. Lordy.

    It was the winter of 1971. We were driving from Burns Lake BC to Maidstone SK, and stopped in NoJack overnight. We were driving a 1965 red GMC 3/4 truck packed with everything we owned. It was so cold that night I remember freezing in the hotel room (it was a very old hotel).

    Next morning, truck won’t start. My Dad, in the parking lot of the Nojack Hotel, built a fire under the oilpan. It turned after about five minutes. Nojack shit. It happened just like that.

    Thanks LT.

    Nojack…….I’ll have to take my son Jack there one day and tell him it was named after him when he was 4yo.

    It’s funny how those old fellas (and lasses) did things normally that we’d flinch at, or maybe never even contemplate today.

    I was a young British soldier, about 19yo, when I met my prospective in-laws for the first time. I grew up in a large city, Portsmouth, and only went to the country once a year for holiday. Watching my now father-in-law get a parachute out of a barrel, put it over the hood, and set up a herman nelson underneath the truck is something that, not only I had never seen, but wouldn’t even have comprehended that this was something you did if you needed to go to work.

    Can’t wait for your father’s day post, LT.

  18. Ducey says:

    Beans:
    Dubois is great I have read that multiple times but the small gap in skill doesn’t make up for what Tkachuk brings in leadership skills I think. There was a good article yesterday about how Dubois plays a lot like what the oilers already have with a level of inconsistency to his physical play. Tkachuk on the other hand is the complete opposite of what the oil have and everything they need in tenacity and attitude. I personally want the oil to take tkachuk, he would be perfect with Mcdavid.

    That article was from David Staples who watched 3 of his games on tape. Not worth much vs stats/ year long analysis.

  19. Магия 10 says:

    Beans: Dubois is great I have read that multiple times but the small gap in skill doesn’t make up for what Tkachuk brings in leadership skills I think

    Are we talking about eyeglow/60 or gritensity? Or something specific that shows up on the ice? There are some comments out there that paint a Smytty in the making. Can anyone point at reports by experience eyes that describe his upside in traffic around the net or offer comparibles or unique skills?

  20. Woodguy says:

    *** SPAM ***

    New Because Oilers:

    Oilers right shot Dman search #4 – Sami Vatanen.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/05/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-4-sami.html

    *** END SPAM ***

  21. fifthcartel says:

    That offer sheet news is very good. They can still use the threat of an offer sheet to nab players just like Calgary/Columbus did with Hamilton/Saad.

    This is huge. Get Barrie. (not huge on Vatanen).

  22. Магия 10 says:

    PunjabiOil: It’s not really a mistake the Oilers can afford to make after Reinhart/Barzal gate last season

    Leaning PLD but that’s overwrought for a Taylor/Tyler pick em. The Bobfather got a much stronger top 5 consensus for MT.

  23. John Chambers says:

    fifthcartel:
    That offer sheet news is very good. They can still use the threat of an offer sheet to nab players just like Calgary/Columbus did with Hamilton/Saad.

    This is huge. Get Barrie. (not huge on Vatanen).

    I like Vatanen because I think the acquisition cost might be lowest. I’m thinking Pouliot + Reinhart or Poo + 2017 1st rounder.

    Add Vatanen at that cost + a UFA defenseman and we’re fixed without cutting into the core.

  24. Магия 10 says:

    Russia – S. Bobrovski (13 SV) .813
    Finland – M. Koskinen (28 SV) .966

    Canada will have its hands full in both rematches. Go Oilers.

  25. Магия 10 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/justin-schultz-relishing-change-scenery-expectations/

    Anybody heard of this guy?

    Nurse’s agent should send that to Pete.

  26. pocession charge says:

    Jethro Tull: Thanks LT.

    Nojack…….I’ll have to take my son Jack there one day and tell him it was named after him when he was 4yo.

    It’s funny how those old fellas (and lasses) did things normally that we’d flinch at, or maybe never even contemplate today.

    I was a young British soldier, about 19yo, when I met my prospective in-laws for the first time.I grew up in a large city, Portsmouth, and only went to the country once a year for holiday.Watching my now father-in-law get a parachute out of a barrel, put it over the hood, and set up a herman nelson underneath the truckis something that, not only I had never seen, but wouldn’t even have comprehended that this was something you did if you needed to go to work.

    Can’t wait for your father’s day post, LT.

    Boy you certainly sound a lot like a poster who used to frequent this blog. Went by OliveOilers.

    Hi OliveOilers!

  27. fifthcartel says:

    John Chambers,

    I agree that he should probably cost the least, but I agree with Woodguy in that even with the larger acquisition cost of Barrie, he’d help the team a lot more.

    I’m on team Barrie.

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    pocession charge,

    Hi, PC!

    OliveOilers had to……..leave in a hurry. That, and it was also my handle on ON about five years ago, when I frequented there. Then the darndest thing happened. When I checked on an LT blog there about six months ago, my account had been hacked and someone started posting under OliveOilers. I made another account and called him out, but he insisted he’d ALWAYS been OliveOilers. So i said “what evs, bro”, and just let him have the handle. Changed it here too, just in case.

    Anyways, Long live Jethro Tull!

    In my defense, I’ve never tried to hide being me.

  29. John Chambers says:

    fifthcartel,

    I’m on team ‘Get two top-four defensemen’ and will applaud any or all that are added at reasonable cost.

    Barrie would be a huge add, but probably means we’re surrendering the #4 OV pick. But given the last decade I would be comfortable with that.

  30. pocession charge says:

    Jethro Tull:
    pocession charge,

    Hi, PC!

    OliveOilers had to……..leave in a hurry.That, and it was also my handle on ON about five years ago, when I frequented there.Then the darndest thing happened. When I checked on an LT blog there about six months ago,my account had been hacked and someone started posting under OliveOilers. I made another account and called him out, but he insisted he’d ALWAYS been OliveOilers.So i said “what evs, bro”, and just let him have the handle.Changed it here too, just in case.

    Anyways, Long live Jethro Tull!

    Welcome back JT f/OO.

    I’ll never think of that name without the whole Metallica debacle at the Grammys. JT really rocked that flute!

  31. Lowetide says:

    Is there a list of RFAs who are eligible for an offer sheet? Asking for someone who cannot find it.

  32. Zack says:

    Pipe Dream
    To Ottawa
    Nuge + Nurse + Yak and or Draft Pick ~ 10.mill Cap Hit

    To Oilers
    Karlsson + Lazar ~ 8 mill Cap Hit

    Not sure Ottawa would bite on this deal, it’s too high profile and dealing Karlsson probably wouldn’t go over too well with the owners. 

    More probable
    To New Jersey
    Nuge (6.0) + Nurse (1.7) + Nail (2.5) ~ 10 Mill Cap Hit

    To Oilers
    Larrsson (~4.2) + Severson (.6) ~ 5 Mill Cap Hit

    Larrsson has SIX YEARS left on his contract at a cap of less than 5.00 million. Insane. NJ has room to add and they would be getting a #1 Center, as well as Nurse and maybe Nail can turn it around. 

    I hate seeing Nurse go but if Larrsson is the return, I’d never complain. 

    This also opens up another 5 million in cap space. 15 million to play with. 

    Maroon – McDavid – Eberle
    Hall – Draisaitl – Brouwer (6.00) 
    Pouliot – Backes (5.5) – *Dubois/Slepy/Caggiula
    Hendricks – Letestu/Khaira – Kassian

    *Cap hit may vary, but I’d pencil in 2.00 Mill to be safe. With the addition of Brouwer, Backes and third line winger we are at about 13.5 Million which leaves us with 1.5 for a back up.  

    Klefbom – Larrsson
    Sekera – Davidson
    Fayne – Severson

    Talbot 
    Pickard (1.2) 

    I could easily get behind that line up. 

  33. Mr DeBakey says:

    We lost our Mayday tree on a snowy Victoria Day long-weekend in the late 90s.
    * * * *

    Its Dubois
    My ES Points, Size, Age Super-Duper Triangulating System confirms it.

    Luke Green of Saint John’s also rates very good on it. I didn’t see his name on LT’s list last Sunday.
    * * * *

    Tkachuk gets a tonne of Secondary Assists. That’s OK for a D-Man, but a forward?

  34. Mr DeBakey says:

    Lowetide:
    Is there a list of RFAs who are eligible for an offer sheet? Asking for someone who cannot find it.

    Aren’t they all?
    Or, is there something about Arbitration in there?

  35. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey: Aren’t they all?
    Or, is there something about Arbitration in there?

    I believe you have to be arb eligible and there are is some nuance in there.

  36. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers: I like Vatanen because I think the acquisition cost might be lowest. I’m thinking Pouliot + Reinhart or Poo + 2017 1st rounder.

    Add Vatanen at that cost + a UFA defenseman and we’re fixed without cutting into the core.

    If you pay more than Pou for Vatanen, you’re paying way too much.

    He’s an ok 3rd pairing Dman who can PP and PK.

  37. square_wheels says:

    Jethro Tull,

    My family showed up in northern Ab in 14, my great-grandfather and his 3 brothers with teams of horses in covered wagons via Kansas enroute from southern Russia. My great-grandfather stayed in his homestead while the other 3 said “to hell with this windy frozen tundra, we’re off to this warm place called the Okanagen Valley”.

    There isn’t too many families that showed up in the prairies who weren’t tough, independent sorts.

    Interesting enough, when I explain the culture of rural western Canadians that comprise most of our workforce, my Anglo-Dutch colleagues have struggled to impress a more urban, academic agenda on them. Their are deep roots in Rural culture – independence from central authority and intense skepticism of anyone that says “it can’t be done”.

    So my point is…….if something’s cold, light a fire. Just like LT’s dad.

  38. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: If you pay more than Pou for Vatanen, you’re paying way too much.

    He’s an ok3rd pairing Dman who can PP and PK.

    The odds of PC overpaying are high. He is not in a position of strength and other teams will be knocking on doors. The market dictates value.

  39. pocession charge says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    We lost our Mayday tree on a snowy Victoria Day long-weekend in the late 90s.
    * * * *

    Its Dubois
    My ES Points, Size, Age Super-Duper Triangulating System confirms it.

    Luke Green of Saint John’s also rates very good on it.I didn’t see his name on LT’s list last Sunday.
    * * * *

    Tkachuk gets a tonne of Secondary Assists.That’s OK for a D-Man, but a forward?

    Watching that Mem Cup game last night just reinforced my bias that Marner is zooming the big line. That kid sure is dynamic offensively. I’m not convinced that Tkachuk is better than Dubois based on the secondary assists and my single game viewing (I feel like a scout now).

    I think it’s Dubois or trade down for Sergachev or Chychrun. Juolevi was pyloned by an average player (Spacek) one-on-one last night and didn’t really impress me. That was my ‘close the briefcase and leave’ moment for Klefbom, er, Juolevi.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I believe you have to be arb eligible and there are is some nuance in there.

    Here are the arb rules:

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/734063828003135489

  41. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide: The odds of PC overpaying are high. He is not in a position of strength and other teams will be knocking on doors. The market dictates value.

    Which is why Chiarelli should be phoning Sakic and Roy like crazy.

    Trade for Barrie and sign Demers 4.7m x 5 years.

  42. square_wheels says:

    fifthcartel,

    Yes – we have to finally out-crazy another GM.

    Right ???

  43. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Is there a list of RFAs who are eligible for an offer sheet? Asking for someone who cannot find it.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration-calculator

    Courtesy of Robert Cleave @rmcleave who is a very good fancystats and general hockey follow.

  44. Магия 10 says:

    fifthcartel: I’m on team Barrie.

    Elliotte Friedman was very strong on Oilers Now that Colorado wants more D not less and would only move him for equal D

    John Chambers: I’m on team ‘Get two top-four defensemen’

    Will need to revisit that if and when the Vegas Vig and protection rules are announced. Both better be big uprades because Davey may end up unprotected.

  45. godot10 says:

    J-Bo:
    I wonder if the play at the draft might be to trade down for straight picks, grab one of the defensive prospects and then target a player like Alex Debrincat? The Oil may be able to move up into the late first round and grab Debrincat with their second round picks. From a prospects standpoint this would appear to check some important boxes.

    NO! It is nuts to trade down out of #4 with Dubois sitting there. Trade it for an established top 4D or pick Dubois.

    Dubois is over six months younger than Tkachuk. Tkachuk has inflated minutes. Dvorak and Marner and the defense do most of the puck transporting. Tkachuk is able to play high TOI with them because he doesn’t do much skating during those shifts.

    In the NHL he is going to have to skate and backcheck more, and not just play a half court game with Dvorak and Marner. He will get far less time on ice. His offense is inflated. Tkachuk is going to have to change his game far more than Dubois at the NHL level.

    McDavid’s Corsi went down 5% playing with a half court player like Maroon over Pouliot. Tkachuk is like Maroon. Dubois is like Pouliot. Choose the skater and the better shooter, which is Dubois.

    And Tkachuk, like Maroon, is going to be a little slow to play McLellan’s dump/place and chase game.

    Dubois is the far superior fit.

    #TeamDubois

  46. innercitysmytty says:

    square_wheels,

    SW I can relate, family from Southern Russia via Kansas and ended up in the Peace country. The stories from those days are great! Talk about grit!

  47. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: The odds of PC overpaying are high. He is not in a position of strength and other teams will be knocking on doors. The market dictates value.

    This is true.

    I still can’t see Pou + 1st being close to value for Vatanen and I would just pass

  48. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I believe you have to be arb eligible and there are is some nuance in there.

    All free agents are eligible for offer sheets until the team or the player opts for arbitration. I have to check. The player still might be eligible for an offer sheet even if the team opts for arbitration.

  49. Woodguy says:

    godot10: NO!It is nuts to trade down out of #4 with Dubois sitting there. Trade it for an established top 4D or pick Dubois.

    Dubois is over six months younger than Tkachuk.Tkachuk has inflated minutes.Dvorak and Marner and the defense do most of the puck transporting.Tkachuk is able to play high TOI with them because he doesn’t do much skating during those shifts.

    In the NHL he is going to have to skate and backcheck more, and not just play a half court game with Dvorak and Marner.He will get far less time on ice.His offense is inflated.Tkachuk is going to have to change his game far more than Dubois at the NHL level.

    McDavid’s Corsi went down 5% playing with a half court player like Maroon over Pouliot.Tkachuk is like Maroon.Dubois is like Pouliot.Choose the skater and the better shooter, which is Dubois.

    And Tkachuk, like Maroon, is going to be a little slow to play McLellan’s dump/place and chase game.

    Dubois is the far superior fit.

    #TeamDubois

    That’s 2 years in a row that we are on the same page for the draft.

    #JustSayNoah

  50. lynn says:

    I’d take Dubois in the draft. Teams (especially Montreal) are lining up for the number four pick, though. I can’t wait for June 24. Chiarelli is on the hot seat. After this draft, Chiarelli is going to be a hero or a zero.

  51. Woodguy says:

    godot10: All free agents are eligible for offer sheets until the team or the player opts for arbitration.

    A player has to be eligible for arbitration to be eligible for an offer sheet.

    Here’s the rules (from the previous link)

    Eligibility for salary arbitration is dependent on entry-level signing age, and professional experience (CBA Reference 12.1 (a)):

    18-20: 4 years professional experience.
    21: 3 years professional experience.
    22-23: 2 years professional experience.
    24 and older: 1 year professional experience.

    -Signing age is the age the player is on September 15 of the year they signed their contract, unless they turn 19 from September 16-December 31, in which case they are considered 20.

    -Players aged 18 or 19 are considered to have completed a year of professional experience when they have played 10 or more NHL games in that season. Players aged 20 or older have completed a year of professional experience when they have played 10 games in a professional league, while under an SPC.

  52. innercitysmytty says:

    My vote is Dubois as well, and leave him in junior and then the AHL for next 2 years. He can come up in time for McDavids next contract.

  53. fifthcartel says:

    Магия 10: Elliotte Friedman was very strong on Oilers Now that Colorado wants more D not less and would only move him for equal D

    Will need to revisit that if and when the Vegas Vig and protection rules are announced.

    Yeah, I heard that too but I’m not sure it made a lot of sense, especially knowing Colorado. He also mentioned the possibility of them moving a F for a D then getting a F back for Barrie.

    Its kind of strange to me he said they’d want defense back because if they don’t want to pay Barrie, and it sounds like they don’t want to similar to ROR last year, then how much are they expecting to pay/this incoming defense’s contract to be like if they’re sold on getting a D in return.

    Part of me also thinks its overstated how many teams have room for a RHD that will most likely get 5m-5.5m+.

    Teams like the Rangers might be interested in Barrie but bad contracts (Staal, Girardi) and few assets from paying for rentals likely prohibit them from acquiring him.

    If they want a prospect/young defensemen then teams like Dallas and Philly make some sense, but I think Edmonton is in a unique position with lots of assets and cap space and a wasteland for RHD defensemen.

  54. John Chambers says:

    Магия 10: Elliotte Friedman was very strong on Oilers Now that Colorado wants more D not less and would only move him for equal D

    Will need to revisit that if and when the Vegas Vig and protection rules are announced. Both better be big uprades because Davey may end up unprotected.

    My proposed solution to the Expansion Draft is to sign a UFA to a high-dollar 2-year deal. My ideal target is Brian Campbell, but I’m being slightly obnoxious now about making this suggestion and promise the blog a hiatus on it until the draft 🙂

  55. Rondo says:

    Woodguy: That’s 2 years in a row that we are on the same page for the draft.

    #JustSayNoah

    I also wonder how much more ice Tkachuk gets with those all star linemates .

  56. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: A player has to be eligible for arbitration to be eligible for an offer sheet.

    That is why Monhan is eligible for an offer sheet and Gaudreau isn’t

    Here’s the rules (from the previous link)

    Eligibility for salary arbitration is dependent on entry-level signing age, and professional experience (CBA Reference 12.1 (a)):

    18-20: 4 years professional experience.
    21: 3 years professional experience.
    22-23: 2 years professional experience.
    24 and older: 1 year professional experience.

    -Signing age is the age the player is on September 15 of the year they signed their contract, unless they turn 19 from September 16-December 31, in which case they are considered 20.

    -Players aged 18 or 19 are considered to have completed a year of professional experience when they have played 10 or more NHL games in that season. Players aged 20 or older have completed a year of professional experience when they have played 10 games in a professional league, while under an SPC.

    Is not the following true? Hamilton wasn’t eligible for arbitration last year. He was coming off his entry level contract. If you are a free agent, you can be offer sheeted.

    McDavid is NOT going to be eligible for arbitration coming off of his entry level, but he is going to eligible for an offer sheet.

    Ditto Lindhom and Seth Jones this summer.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: This is true.

    I still can’t see Pou + 1st being close to value for Vatanen and I would just pass

    Agreed.

  58. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    Sorry, I was wrong.

    Arb eligibility and offer sheet intelligibility are two different, but very similar situations.

    A player has to be a group 2 free agent to be able to sign an offer sheet.

    Here is how you figure out if a player is a group 2 free agent:

    Group 2 Players and Free Agents.

    (i) (A) Any Player who meets the qualifications set forth in the following
    chart and: (1) is not a Group 1 Player or a Group 4 Player, and (2) is not
    an Unrestricted Free Agent, shall be deemed to be a “Group 2 Player” and
    shall, at the expiration of his SPC, become a Restricted Free Agent. Any
    such Player shall be completely free to negotiate and sign an SPC with any
    Club, and any Club shall be completely free to negotiate and sign an SPC
    with any such Player, subject to the provisions set forth in this Section. As
    used in this Section 10.2, “age,” including “First SPC Signing Age” means
    a Player’s age on September 15 of the calendar year in which he signs an
    SPC regardless of his actual age on the date he signs such SPC.

    First SPC Signing Age Eligible for Group 2 Free Agency
    18 – 21 3 years professional experience
    22 – 23 2 years professional experience
    24 or older 1 year professional experience

    For the purposes of this Section 10.2(a), a Player aged 18 or 19 earns a
    year of professional experience by playing ten (10) or more NHL Games
    in a given NHL Season, and a Player aged 20 or older (or who turns 20
    between September 16 and December 31 of the year in which he signs his
    first SPC) earns a year of professional experience by playing ten (10) or
    more Professional Games under an SPC in a given League Year.

    This is why you can offer sheet Monahan (3 years experience, signed as an 18 year old) but cannot offer sheet Gaudreau (2 years experience, signed as a 20 year old)

  59. pocession charge says:

    Rondo: I also wonder how much more ice Tkachuk gets with those all star linemates .

    That line doesn’t leave the ice for long and they are back on, especially in close games. Plus they literally spend the entire two minutes out on the power play.

    Godot is correct — Tkachuk will not be logging the same type of minutes when he has to play NHL defensive systems because there is so much more skating involved. In junior, he appears to prefer backchecking to the offensive zone blueline.

  60. Rondo says:

    pocession charge,

    I’m talking space, with those line mates they would be keyed on and Tkachuk would have more ice to work with

  61. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Is not the following true? Hamilton wasn’t eligible for arbitration last year.He was coming off his entry level contract.If you are a free agent, you can be offer sheeted.

    McDavid is NOT going to be eligible for arbitration coming off of his entry level, but he is going to eligible for an offer sheet.

    Ditto Lindhom and Seth Jones this summer.

    Yeah I screwed that up, see later post.

    Those players had 3 years pro experience so were Group 2 Free Agents.

    Eligible for an offer sheet, but not for arbitration.

    My apologies.

  62. square_wheels says:

    Gallagher is such a net hound, love that guy.

  63. Jethro Tull says:

    square_wheels: Interesting enough, when I explain the culture of rural western Canadians that comprise most of our workforce, my Anglo-Dutch colleagues have struggled to impress a more urban, academic agenda on them. Their are deep roots in Rural culture – independence from central authority and intense skepticism of anyone that says “it can’t be done”.

    Describes my Father in Law to a tee. He came from Ontario to Peace River with $10 and got a job driving truck, then driving truck and carrying farrier tools and doing horses on the back hauls, then going full time as a farrier.

    Some pearls of wisdom:

    On the English (his Grandfather is originally from North Yorkshire, close to where my family now live. There’s even a famous bridge named after them – Batty Moss (Ribblehead Viaduct)):

    “You can always tell an Englishman, you just can’t tell him much.” (Ironically, he’s one of the most stubborn people I know)

    On the Dutch (he married a Dutch immigrant, the mother of my wife):

    “Wooden shoes, wooden head, wooden listen.”

    He will bend over backwards to help you……as long as you try to help yourself. He has absolutely no time for people who won’t even try!

    On hockey….I tend to listen closely to what Freidman has to say……and not say. Like Bob as well.

  64. J-Bo says:

    godot10: NO!It is nuts to trade down out of #4 with Dubois sitting there. Trade it for an established top 4D or pick Dubois.

    Dubois is over six months younger than Tkachuk.Tkachuk has inflated minutes.Dvorak and Marner and the defense do most of the puck transporting.Tkachuk is able to play high TOI with them because he doesn’t do much skating during those shifts.

    In the NHL he is going to have to skate and backcheck more, and not just play a half court game with Dvorak and Marner.He will get far less time on ice.His offense is inflated.Tkachuk is going to have to change his game far more than Dubois at the NHL level.

    McDavid’s Corsi went down 5% playing with a half court player like Maroon over Pouliot.Tkachuk is like Maroon.Dubois is like Pouliot.Choose the skater and the better shooter, which is Dubois.

    And Tkachuk, like Maroon, is going to be a little slow to play McLellan’s dump/place and chase game.

    Dubois is the far superior fit.

    #TeamDubois

    I agree with you on Dubois. It just seems like Chia is strong on trading down. I am definitely not a Tkachuk fan and also agree that Marner is driving much of that lines offence and Dvorak is driving most of the rest. Truly I don’t think the correct call on what to do at the draft can be sorted until trades for a RHD is sorted. That is what drives everything. It should be an interesting draft 😊

  65. pocession charge says:

    Rondo:
    pocession charge,

    I’m talking space, with those line mates they would be keyed on and Tkachuk would have more ice to work with

    From what I observed, Tkachuk plays mostly on the half wall, down low by the goal line and in front of the net. There isn’t a lot of space in those areas for any player. Tkachuk is very good at making plays with little space — it’s a real strength that should translate well in the NHL.

  66. square_wheels says:

    These Russian go-go dancers are making me thirsty !!!

  67. Lowetide says:

    Doing a little prep for a draft post upcoming, found this gem.

    Steve Simmons: I have to be honest: I’m cheering against the Oilers on the road to McDavid or Eichel. They have tripped over themselves so often that I really would like to see McDavid or Eichel somewhere where not having a clue isn’t a prerequisite to a management position. If I could a place for McDavid it would be Columbus: A McDavid-Ryan Johansen combination going forward reminds me of Tim Duncan and David Robinson in San Antonio. One bad year meant more than a decade of great seasons. This Edmonton bunch isn’t deserving of anything that great.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2014/12/06/drew-doughty-deserves-to-win-the-lou-marsh-trophy

  68. square_wheels says:

    Oh boy, what a goal Marchand.

    Wow does Ceci ever get up the ice in a hurry, first time I’ve really seen him regularly.

  69. T0ML says:

    I agree with you fully on PLD over Tkachuk, but honestly hope to trade down and get a Top 4 RHD ….

    However, can we stop the Barzal narrative? From everything i’ve read, the only people who wanted Edmonton to take Barzal at 16 are commentators, all verbal from the team / media is Barzal was *not* the oilers target there, thus it is a moot point to say Barzal vs. Reinhart ….

    PunjabiOil:
    PLD over Tkachuk in my opinion due to the following

    1. Size
    2. Versatility to play both C and W.
    3. 6 months younger
    4. History of proving ability to drive the bus (lead team in scoring by 20 points) versus being a passenger

    Tkachuk may end up being solid but no doubt in my mind PLD will end up as the superior prospect.

    It’s not really a mistake the Oilers can afford to make after Reinhart/Barzal gate last season

  70. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Doing a little prep for a draft post upcoming, found this gem.

    Steve Simmons: I have to be honest: I’m cheering against the Oilers on the road to McDavid or Eichel. They have tripped over themselves so often that I really would like to see McDavid or Eichel somewhere where not having a clue isn’t a prerequisite to a management position. If I could a place for McDavid it would be Columbus: A McDavid-Ryan Johansen combination going forward reminds me of Tim Duncan and David Robinson in San Antonio. One bad year meant more than a decade of great seasons. This Edmonton bunch isn’t deserving of anything that great.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2014/12/06/drew-doughty-deserves-to-win-the-lou-marsh-trophy

    I get where Steve is coming from – but……I understand that nobody should be that incompetent and get McDavid as a reward. It’s been said many times on here that although the management was largely undeserving, the same cannot and must not be said against the fans. If this was an American market, the Oilers would have been toast by now. Yet still we pay, still we watch, still we CARE.

    What I find a lot of these writers fail to understand is there is no Grand Cosmic Balance to this. Edmonton didn’t even finish last when they won the lottery.

    And McDavid to Columbus may well have turned out like…..well….Rick Nash to Columbus.

  71. sliderule says:

    Ryan Murray looks solid.

    How much better would oil defence look with him back there.

  72. lynn says:

    sliderule:
    Ryan Murray looks solid.

    How much better would oil defence look with him back there.

    But Yakupov would have never had the joy of being an Oiler.

  73. SwedishPoster says:

    The swedish commentators really trashing Talbot.

  74. square_wheels says:

    Tie game.

  75. slopitch says:

    So many teams need a big C. If think Dupois goes 4 either by oilers or by the team the oilers trade with. Having a C/RW in the system seems incredibly valuable to the Oilers – especially if the move Yak.

    3-2 Yanks. Time to wake up fellas!

  76. Rondo says:

    Where is McDavid

  77. SwedishPoster says:

    Rondo:
    Where is McDavid

    Has been thinking the same thing, he’s just floating around looking disinterested, very out of character.

  78. SwedishPoster says:

    …and there he finally shows some sign of life for a shift.

  79. lynn says:

    Rondo:
    Where is McDavid

    It is like he has given the stage to Laine and Matthews. He has rarely put the puck on net.

  80. John Chambers says:

    2016 could shape up to be the year of Finnish hockey.

    Its climax is Joonas Donskoi hoisting Stanley

  81. lynn says:

    What is an Oilers fan’s worst nightmare: Laine and Matthews being better than McDavid. The next decade of hockey is going to be fabulous.

  82. pocession charge says:

    Rondo:
    Where is McDavid

    He is quiet but I don’t understand why he’s not the primary puck carrier in the neutral zone. The defence are trying to skate it all the way. Seems like Marchand is getting a lot of the puck pocession on that line, too.

  83. OF17 says:

    To hop on WG’s points about Vatanen, the guy has been 6th, 9th, and 9th in ES TOI/G for Anaheim D the last 3 years. Not a good sign at all and definitely supports WG’s claim that he’s a 5/6D.

    Great post WG by the way. Makes me very leery of adding Vatanen without first signing Demers and likely trading Fayne for a Bozak type out of cap concerns. In other words, likely way too many moving pieces to be reasonable.

    I’d much rather go for Sekera-Fayne as the tough minutes defensive pair, Klefbom-Barrie as the slightly less tough minutes offensive pair, and Davidson-Whoever (ideally a Severson/Sproul/Petrovic type, but let’s not be greedy) than try to navigate the mess of acquiring Demers and Vatanen while sending out Fayne. Not to mention I think the first scenario retains value better.

    Anyone have Dellow’s email? Can we send him WG’s work on RHD? Assuming he doesn’t still read this blog of course. I have a sinking feeling that without it we’ll see moves more of the MacT variety than 2005 Kevin Lowe. Or to use more contemporary examples, more Reinhart than Maroon.

  84. jake70 says:

    McDavid is quiet, he does look disinterested. Hall had the whole top right corner on his break-away and shot it into the blocker. Woodguy has pimped Ellis for a while…..can see why.

  85. Wolfie says:

    I see McDavid not moving his feet. He also seems to be deferring to others. Needs to take charge a little more.

  86. lynn says:

    jake70:
    McDavid is quiet, he does look disinterested. Hall had the whole top right corner on his break-away and shot it into the blocker.Woodguy has pimped Ellis for a while…..can see why.

    How can one be disinterested for a game at that level? McDavid isn’t a ten-year NHL veteran on vacation in Moscow.

  87. Lowetide says:

    I have seen a Canadian team making mistakes across the roster. No doubt McDavid has not had a strong game, he was a little quiet the last one too. Had a dandy shift here mid-third.

  88. rickithebear says:

    Loser teams: bet on d that have defence that require 4 to 5 goals to win games.
    D like young Gilbert, Barrie, Faulk, J. schultz.

    Cup caliber teams try to have 3 top 60 hsca d in there top 4.

    We willhave 2 with
    Klefbom 1st comp #57 hsca
    Davidson bot 2nd comp #35 hsca

    Career
    Kevan Miller 2nd comp top 20 Hsca
    Demers 3rd comp top 90 hsca
    Schlemko 3rd comp top 90 hsca

    Which will be the cap cheapest?

  89. rickithebear says:

    If you are loking at offence to measure defencemen.
    I am Buying a remington 7 CDL 300 RUM as a 225 gr open sight dangerous game rifle you can use as a sleeping pill.

    Cause they have equal measure to there primary purpose!

  90. lynn says:

    Lowetide:
    I have seen a Canadian team making mistakes across the roster. No doubt McDavid has not had a strong game, he was a little quiet the last one too. Had a dandy shift here mid-third.

    I will be happy when Connor has his focus on the Oilers and next season. Canada has played poorly today. If they win today, they are setting themselves up for a superlative game against the Finns on Sunday.

  91. Jethro Tull says:

    Talbot with 30 saves, .910 SV% as per IIHF site stats.

  92. sliderule says:

    Nice win

    Some oiler fans are going to have to temper their expectations for Mcdavid.

    He is not going to win games by himself.

    He made several nice plays for scoring chances and a nice play for assist on winning goal.

  93. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    I have seen a Canadian team making mistakes across the roster. No doubt McDavid has not had a strong game, he was a little quiet the last one too. Had a dandy shift here mid-third.

    Ellis a top 20 hsca d is a dmen who shadows the perimeter anengages in the box .
    I would have lttle fear with him paired with davey.

    Klefbom – xxx
    Sekera – k. Miller
    Davidson – Ellis

  94. rickithebear says:

    sliderule:
    Nice win

    Some oiler fans are going to have to temper their expectations for Mcdavid.

    He is not going to win games by himself.

    He made several nice plays for scoring chances and a nice play for assist on winning goal.

    Evp/60 this season league rank.
    #1 mcdavid 2.75 EVG/60

    Seabrook, keith, hjarlmasson, were not playoff players to start.
    Yet were the d in all 3 cups.

    2 of the 3 best d in chicago,s first cup were.
    Campbell and Sopel ufa’s

  95. commonfan14 says:

    Just getting caught up on twitter.

    Any chance we can trade McDavid for Ryan Murray?

  96. kelevra says:

    LT, any reason you dont push Yandle as much as Demers? Yandle seems to be a better fit despite being LH.

  97. AsiaOil says:

    My trade to fix RHD and RHRW stands: RNH and Musil for Ellis and Smith. Makes us a better team by miles and we still have Ebs, Yak, a young LHD and UFA to get another RHD and RW.

  98. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Doing a little prep for a draft post upcoming, found this gem.

    Steve Simmons: I have to be honest: I’m cheering against the Oilers on the road to McDavid or Eichel. They have tripped over themselves so often that I really would like to see McDavid or Eichel somewhere where not having a clue isn’t a prerequisite to a management position. If I could a place for McDavid it would be Columbus: A McDavid-Ryan Johansen combination going forward reminds me of Tim Duncan and David Robinson in San Antonio. One bad year meant more than a decade of great seasons. This Edmonton bunch isn’t deserving of anything that great.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2014/12/06/drew-doughty-deserves-to-win-the-lou-marsh-trophy

    “I DON’T THINK THIS TIRE FIRE OF AN ORG DESERVES MCDAVID OR EICHEL…BUT THIS TIRE FIRE OF AN ORG DOES!!”

  99. godot10 says:

    kelevra:
    LT, any reason you dont push Yandle as much as Demers?Yandle seems to be a better fit despite being LH.

    Yandle doesn’t play tough minutes. Elite offensive and mediocre defense, like Shattenkirk. And Barrie. And with McDavid, if one is going to pay one of these guys, you want the right shot D for the power play, not the left shot D.

    It is not particularly wise (but may be necessary) to pay for offense from D who really are not good at the defensive side of the job. But with the prospect of Nurse and Reinhart and Klefbom probably all being superior defenders in time, it may not be such a bad decision for the OIlers.

    Carolina has Staal, Rask, Lindholm, and Aho at centre. And they can probably draft one of Keller, Brown, or McLeod this year. I can’t see why they would ever consider trading Faulk for Nugent-Hopkins.

  100. Woodguy says:

    OF17,

    Thanks for the kind words.

    Since part of his job for the Oilers is to analyze players I’m pretty sure that Tyler would have already looked at these players and in a much more detailed look than I could achieve.

  101. Woodguy says:

    jake70:
    McDavid is quiet, he does look disinterested. Hall had the whole top right corner on his break-away and shot it into the blocker.Woodguy has pimped Ellis for a while…..can see why.

    With Jones gone he’ll never move out of NAS while under contract.

    Very, very good, under rated and under paid player.

  102. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil:
    My trade to fix RHD and RHRW stands:RNH and Musil for Ellis and Smith. Makes us a better team by miles and we still have Ebs, Yak, a young LHD and UFA to get another RHD and RW.

    Now that Jones is gone and Weber turns 31 this summer I think Poile hangs on to Ellis like his life depends on it.

    His job probably does.

  103. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Yandle doesn’t play tough minutes.Elite offensive and mediocre defense, like Shattenkirk.And Barrie.And with McDavid, if one is going to pay one of these guys, you want the right shot D for the power play, not the left shot D.

    It is not particularly wise (but may be necessary) to pay for offense from D who really are not good at the defensive side of the job.But with the prospect of Nurse and Reinhart and Klefbom probably all being superior defenders in time, it may not be such a bad decision for the OIlers.

    Carolina has Staal, Rask, Lindholm, and Aho at centre.And they can probably draft one of Keller, Brown, or McLeod this year.I can’t see why they would ever consider trading Faulk for Nugent-Hopkins.

    Pay for the offensive d.
    Who has poor defence.

    Pay for a player who generates 4 th line offence and gives up 1 st line offence.

    In what winning world does that make any sense?

    We have had poor defence for 8 years.

    We pick passing forwards over direct line high even goal scorers.

  104. DRFNsuperstar says:

    It was pretty genius of Matthew’s agent to send him to Europe, he got to avoid the comparisons to Mcdavid if he would have played CHL and Eichel if he went NCAA. Even the NHLEs are weak for the Swiss league allowing the “dominating against men” rhetoric to flourish. Eastern media must have hated the move.

  105. BONE207 says:

    Things I’ve noticed today:

    Why is LT’s radio show pre-empted again today. Russian conspiracy?

    That Ryan Ellis looks good to me after watching the game today.

    Connor…when he plays, he rarely makes a mistake and has sweet touches (ala to Pouliot vs Subban). He can play for my team any day.

    Those Russian dancers and presenters: Awesome

  106. BONE207 says:

    Woodguy: “I DON’T THINK THIS TIRE FIRE OF AN ORG DESERVES MCDAVID OR EICHEL…BUT THIS TIRE FIRE OF AN ORG DOES!!”

    I guess you mean Edmonton vs Columbus. Sounds like sour grapes that is more anti Edmonton over anti Columbus. His big mouth can’t be heard there but like Michael Landsberg, if Toronto can’t have nice things, pile onto another sad sack organization to keep the inmates happy. I hope Shanny and Lou pick the 178th choice on Bob McKenzie’s list due to a mental block.

  107. godot10 says:

    One short term option for one year, although a left shot, which hasn’t been mentioned yet, is Mark Streit, if a lot of everything else falls through. Say if one did Korpikoski for Streit….is a net plus.

  108. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy:
    *** SPAM ***

    New Because Oilers:

    Oilers right shot Dman search #4 – Sami Vatanen.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/05/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-4-sami.html

    *** END SPAM ***

    Thanks for this excellent analysis. Great series!

    Boudreau used Ricky Fowler nearly 23 mins / game, Lindholm 22 mins / game, and then both Bieksa and Vatanen around 21.5. Theodore, Manson, and Stoner were all under 20 with Stoner the lowest at just over 15.

    Vatanen led the Anh D corps in total points as well as 5×5 scoring.

    Based on all data I would think that Vat is used as the “puck mover” on a pair with big mean Stoner and gets his extra ice time on the powerplay while also shifting in for Manson to play alongside Bieksa on the second pair when the bench gets shortened.

    So, despite playing the most of his 5×5 time with Stoner it seems likely that Boudreau tries to create equitable pairings that leverage different players’ skill sets as opposed to simply ranking Dmen 1 through 6 with Vat falling to the 3rd pair behind the others.

    Given that Anh clearly values his offensive abilities I would salivate at the chance to have Vat play 2nd pairing with Klef or Sek as his partner. I can’t imagine that a similar calibre player would be available at the cost of merely Benoit Pouliot.

  109. DRFNsuperstar says:

    rickithebear:
    If you are loking at offence to measure defencemen.
    I am Buying a remington 7 CDL 300 RUM as a 225 gr open sight dangerous game rifle you can use as a sleeping pill.

    Cause they have equal measure to there primary purpose!

    This is probably the next thing to go extinct after all the enforcers are gone (so next year). Paying “defensive defenceman” is the worst cap move ever, If a team overpays for Roman Polak this summer that GM should be fired. What is a defensive defenceman? More and more coaching systems are going to “swarm/seal the wall” which means both D men and the centreman (or winger) seal the wall and try to stop the cycle. In this system your “box out/ net front clear out” guy is actually a winger or centreman collapsing down. Also you need context on these players relative to their team mates and competition. If you’re playing against Getzlaf and Corey Perry and with Eberle and Yakupov its going to be a Mexican birthday party with your goalie as the pinyata and the puck as the Louisville slugger no matter who you are as a defencemen.

    Defencemen need to get paid for contributing to every aspect of the game, limiting controlled entries into their zone, break up the cycle and make direct contributions to breaking out under control, keeping possession in the o-zone, and contributing to scoring chances. Pat Quinn would not be a D-man in the NHL in 2016-17, no matter how good he was at keeping people away from the front of the net. If your playing 5-4 in o-zone because your Dman has rocks for hands and feet you’re going to have a bad time. If the other team is constantly shooting pucks at your net they will eventually go in, sometimes off of your defensive defenceman’s ass while he is boxing out a forward

  110. Rondo says:

    Ryan Murray looks like he is going to be a great D-man.

  111. PunjabiOil says:

    *** SPAM ***

    New Because Oilers:

    Oilers right shot Dman search #4 – Sami Vatanen.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/05/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-4-sami.html

    *** END SPAM ***
    .

    Nice post.

    Murray has done a nice job in Anaheim. Maybe this is exactly why Vatanen is on the market – overvalued asset on the market, 2 years to unrestricted free agency with an big raise upcoming for a player who does not push the river.\

    Stauffer has been continuously hinting a deal is in the works re: Vatanen in such a manner it’s almost becoming a matter not if, but when.

    Hope he’s wrong.

  112. Younger Oil says:

    I really don’t get why people are so against getting Vatanen. I know he is the worst option out of him, Barrie, and Faulk, but that is comparing apples and oranges. He’s not a top pairing RHD, but he’s a hell of a lot better than what we have now.

    He plays PP and PK, and last season got more points than all of the RHD who played for us combined. His acquisition cost is also by far the least of the three, with most people saying Vatanen for Pouliot (who becomes expendable anyways if we draft Tkachuk or Dubois), or the 4th for Vatanen and the 24th, which in itself is not an insignificant trade piece.

    If we get Vatanen, then Demers for money, and Severson for Yakupov (or something like that), that gives us an incredibly solid defence. No official top pairing, but essentially three average to above average second pairings, which is a hell of a lot better than we have had for the past decade.

    Sekera-Demers
    Klefbom-Vatanen
    Davidson-Severson

    That looks like a playoff defence to me. Also gives us the option to use the likes of Nurse or Reinhart to fill any other significant holes in our lineup.

    I know that being a GM is a hard thing, but it’s hard to argue that we don’t have the trade pieces to address the needs in our organization. It needs to be done this summer. It is so monumentally important, now more than ever.

  113. Jaxon says:

    Another interesting stat regarding Dubois vs Tkachuk. Dubois managed to achieve a +/- of +40 while his goalies had a terrible .879 Save %!!!!!!!! You know how hard it is to get plus 40 over 62 games with terrible goaltending while leading the next most points on your team by 20 pts?!?!?!

    Dubois was his team. He dragged them along all season. More primary points, more goals, plays meaner, fights, is a complete player. There is absolutely no chance he was being carried by his linemates. He can play C, RW or LW, which gives MacLennan options all year long.

    All the scouting reports I’ve read says he is a strong skater who can be the playmaker or the power forward sniper and competitive, versatile, and consistent. This is a player who scored at a higher pace than Hall and Draisaitl at evens and his scouting report descriptions paint him as a more complete player than both of them. I think in many years he would be considered for #1.

    #TeamDubois.

  114. jeetz says:

    Lowetide,

    The way you have the roster, our def looks like we are a 1st line RD away. Putting Fayne as 3rd line RD would be ideal.

    Plus the RW looks good too. Leave Yak on 2nd line all year and give him a long leash. Some consistency and confidence might change everything for Yak and the oilers.

    4th line needs some work but move Korpse and use some AHL players (Iro would be one) sign a solid NHL vet so Letetsu isn’t baby sitting

    Sign Demers
    Trade Korpse
    Sign a quality backup
    Sign a good veteran 4th line fwd

    That might be all we need

    For gods sake let these oilers play where they are developing and aren’t over their heads

  115. Jaxon says:

    lynn,

    Everyone else’s worst nightmare would be Dubois ending up better than all 6 of Eichel, Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk and Patrick.

  116. AsiaOil says:

    Jaxon,

    Would not surprise me at all that Dubois goes 3rd to Columbus given their black hole at center. I draft him without hesitation #4 unless a RHD like Ellis is on the table.

  117. Jaxon says:

    AsiaOil,

    I was on #team Puljujarvi until we lost the lottery and I read more about Dubois. I think Dubois may be the gem of this draft. elite scoring and a complete game speedy power forward who is super versatile (playmaker, sniper, penalty killer, defensive, power forward, fighter, hitter). But if CBJ picks Dubois, then Puljujarvi is a pretty damn nice consolation prize.

  118. Jaxon says:

    Interesting trivia: Dubois and Drouin were born in the same small town in Quebec. Also, Benoit Pouliot’s and Dubois’ hometowns are only a 90-minute drive from each other. If they do draft Dubois, I think keeping Pouliot around is a good idea to help him transition to the NHL in Edmonton. They’d both be 4th overall C/LW draft picks, drafted behind phenoms and play a somewhat similar style. I think Benoit would have a lot to teach him.

  119. Jaxon says:

    Yakupov, Davidson & 2nd Round Pick to TBL for Drouin, 3rd Round Pick & DeAngelo? Draft Dubois. Keep Pouliot. A French Connection line of Pouliot / Dubois / Drouin.

  120. Wolfie says:

    I’m thinking Drouin isn’t going anywhere now.

  121. Jaxon says:

    Wolfie,

    Yeah, you’re probably right.

  122. Jaxon says:

    More trivia re: Pierre-Luc Dubois. Or at least his dad, Eric Dubois. Eric played for Revier Lowen Oberhausen in 1997-1998 and Peter Draisaitl (Leon’s dad) played for them in 2000-2001. They just missed playing with each other by a few years. Eric also played with Martin Lapointe, claude Lapointe, and Sylvain Couturier (Sean’s dad) for the Laval Titan. He also played with jordan Eberle’s cousin Derek on the Maniioba Moose. He also played with Rob Brown, Ken Hodge Jr, Stephane Richer, John Anderson, Chris Kontos, Bryan Fogarty, Mike McEwen, Curtis Leschyshyn, Adam Foote, Kip Miller, Scott Arniel, and former Oilers Scott Pearson, Roman Hamrlik and Martin Rucinsky, He played with Brent Gretzky. And Lowetide should like this, he played with al Secord on the 95-96 Chicago Wolves.,

  123. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers,

    Lots to unpack here to I’m going to address each paragraph on its own.

    Thanks for this excellent analysis. Great series!

    Thanks! You’re welcome!

    Boudreau used Ricky Fowler nearly 23 mins / game, Lindholm 22 mins / game, and then both Bieksa and Vatanen around 21.5. Theodore, Manson, and Stoner were all under 20 with Stoner the lowest at just over 15.

    This is overall TOI and Vatanen shows well there because he was PP1 and PK1 options (huge feather in his cap)

    If you look at this year’s 5v5 TOI/gm its:

    Hampus Lindholm 17:48
    Cam Fowler 17:36
    Kevin Bieksa 17:27
    Simon Despres 17:08
    Josh Manson 16:31
    Sami Vatanen 16:11
    Shea Theodore 15:08
    Clayton Stoner 13:30
    Korbinian Holzer 13:26


    Vatanen led the Anh D corps in total points as well as 5×5 scoring.

    Yup, he can score. Good PP scorer and above average 5v5 – Here’s the chart of 5v5 scoring from my piece:

    PLAYER NAME PTS/60
    WEBER, SHEA 0.93
    LEDDY, NICK 0.93
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 0.93
    DEMERS, JASON 0.92
    MARKOV, ANDREI 0.92
    STRALMAN, ANTON 0.91
    HICKEY, THOMAS 0.91
    MYERS, TYLER 0.91
    BRODIE, TJ 0.91
    MCDONAGH, RYAN 0.91
    YANDLE, KEITH 0.91
    BRAUN, JUSTIN 0.91
    VATANEN, SAMI 0.91 ***
    WISNIEWSKI, JAMES 0.90
    REDMOND, ZACH 0.90
    FAULK, JUSTIN 0.89
    CECI, CODY 0.89
    KEITH, DUNCAN 0.89
    EKHOLM, MATTIAS 0.89


    Based on all data I would think that Vat is used as the “puck mover” on a pair with big mean Stoner and gets his extra ice time on the powerplay while also shifting in for Manson to play alongside Bieksa on the second pair when the bench gets shortened.

    Main pairs this year (when everyone was healthy) :

    Fowler-Bieksa
    Manson – Lindholm
    Stoner – Vatanen

    Bieksa and Manson are both RHD and only played 26 minutes together.


    So, despite playing the most of his 5×5 time with Stoner it seems likely that Boudreau tries to create equitable pairings that leverage different players’ skill sets as opposed to simply ranking Dmen 1 through 6 with Vat falling to the 3rd pair behind the others.

    I’m not sure how you can come to that conclusion based on the TOI.

    Boudreau like Manson much better with Lindholm than Vatanen and maybe that has something to do with size, but their results together are also outstanding. Vatanen’s results with Lindholm are not.


    Given that Anh clearly values his offensive abilities I would salivate at the chance to have Vat play 2nd pairing with Klef or Sek as his partner. I can’t imagine that a similar calibre player would be available at the cost of merely Benoit Pouliot.

    I want to be clear about what I like and don’t like about Vatanen.

    PP and PK are good to very good.

    5v5 is really disappointing, especially given his QC.

    He is a good special teams player, but I’m really wary of his 5v5 play.

    I’m not sure this is the type of player you give up a significant asset for, 5v5 is too important.

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