FARMLAND

The Edmonton Oilers simply have to get something out of their farm system, and that right soon. Leon Draisaitl spent six games in the AHL before embarking on his breakout season, but that isn’t really a victory for the development system. Many believe it is about drafting, but there is some evidence (Tobias Rieder, Erik Gustafsson, possibly Ethan Bear) the procurement department may not be the main issue. Are these kids making progress? If not, why not?

Eric Rodgers (as I mentioned last night) has done the heavy work to estimate time on ice and points per 60 for the Condors in 2015-16—just as he did for Oklahoma City the previous season. Let’s start with last season:

BARONS FORWARDS 2014-15

condors rodgers forwards

The two young forwards from 2014-15 who scored enough to get themselves into the conversation were Anton Lander and Iiro Pakarinen (Tyler Pitlick might have, but was hurt again). No forward one year ago 22 or under showed enough offense to be considered a bona fide NHL prospect (Curtis Hamilton was at 1.89, leading the group). I felt—a year ago—Bogdan Yakimov was the most promising entry-level forward in this group.

CONDORS 2015-16

rodgers forwards bakersfield

We have to talk. I was reading a lot of ‘Winquist is slow and he isn’t a center’ verbal in the comments section of this blog last night. If we were arguing about Yakimov versus Slepyshev, then playing center versus foot speed is a conversation we can have. However….

Every fall, we watch young (signed) prospects get sent out and pray to the Wichita Wind they deliver reasonable offense. Winquist did that in year one and then took a big step forward in year two and I will wager he has a better chance at an NHL career than pretty much every guy on this list (the Russians and Khaira have already had NHL time, so I count them as being ahead).

FACTS

  1. The Edmonton Oilers have a distinct lack of prospects in the system who can provide offense.
  2. Josh Winquist can provide offense.
  3. The Edmonton Oilers have not signed Josh Winquist.

jones movie

 OBSERVATIONS

  1. Aside from Winquist, I would list Jujhar Khaira, Kyle Platzer and Anton Slepyshev as players of interest.
  2. Bogdan Yakimov struggled this season, would like to see him play a more prominent role next year in the AHL. This blog is not a massive fan of keeping players around just because they have size, but the big man is 6.05, a center and has shown some impressive things in TC. Do those things go away in the minor leagues? Why?
  3. That’s it from here. I don’t think you can frame any other prospect as being especially promising.
  4. Tyler Pitlick posted good numbers, but I am not certain he will return. If the club signs him, it would be interesting to see him compete against Zack Kassian and Iiro Pakarinen for what looks like two available roles in 2016-17.

BARONS DEFENSE 2014-15

bakersfield rodgers d

Oscar Klefbom trumpeted his arrival as an NHL-ready player in a nine game audition. The other stat that stands out from a year ago? Brandon Davidson was on for 42 GF and 32 GA at evens. Shines like a diamond, along with Klefbom. I think Oesterle and Simpson have interesting numbers, Marincin looks pedestrian here.

CONDORS DEFENSE 2015-16

CONDORS RODGERS D 15-16

Jordan Oesterle and Joey Laleggia show some promise (these are not ideal measures for blue, but the GF-GA suggests they are both playing in the big parts of the game). Scott Zerr told us time and again on the Lowdown that Griffin Reinhart was not the most effective defender in Bakersfield, although coach Gerry Fleming was more complimentary. Dillon Simpson, as he has every year, showed solid growth. I don’t see a Klefbom or a Davidson here, but would suggest Oesterle, Laleggia and Simpson are showing good arrows. I would also suggest—as is the case with Yakimov among the forwards—we should hope to see big minutes for Reinhart in California this coming season.

PLAYERS FOR THE BAKERSFIELD-TO-EDMONTON SHUTTLE NEXT SEASON

  1. G Laurent Brossoit
  2. D Griffin Reinhart
  3. F Jujhar Khaira
  4. L Drake Caggiula
  5. D Jordan Oesterle
  6. R Anton Slepysev
  7. C Bogdan Yakimov
  8. D David Musil
  9. D Joey Laleggia
  10. D Dillon Simpson
  11. L Jere Sallinen
  12. R Patrick Russell

Josh Winquist? He is no more Oilers property than any free agent. Peter Chiarelli is overlooking a talented young player who has found success in the AHL. This player is young enough to be considered a legit prospect, and this prospect is outperforming several miles of draft picks. Peter Chiarelli chose to sign Braden Christoffer—who was overwhelmed in his AHL time—over Josh Winquist. The bias that has plagued Edmonton’s procurement and assessment model continues unabated under the new regime. These things we know to be true.

CURRENT OILERS ROSTER

current oilers roster

Edmonton has several holes, but PC has $10 million to play with and if the team can add Jason Demers and another bona fide RHD, then sign a free-agent RW and a quality backup, this team—if healthy—should be able to compete for a playoff spot. Seriously.

I think that could happen, depending on what is made available to Edmonton. Picture if you will (sorry, I have been watching Twilight Zone recently), a draft list that has Tkachuk No. 4, Dubois No. 5 and Sergachev No. 6, but all agree the gap is very small and the defenseman might be the best choice. Trading down to add another pick or an actual player has to have some appeal, no?

  • No. 5 Vancouver Canucks: They have No. 33 and I believe No. 63.
  • No. 6 Calgary Flames: They have No. 35 and No. 53. Also, Dennis Wideman has been connected to Edmonton.
  • No. 7 Arizona Coyotes: They have No. 20, No. 37 and No. 67. Also, defenders Michael Stone and Connor Murphy would be of interest—availability has not been confirmed.
  • No. 8 Buffalo Sabres: They have No. 8, No. 38 and No. 68. They also have a plethora of RHD, including Zack Bogosian, Cody Franson and Mark Pysyk. Oil Kings haters will howl, but I would take young Pysyk over the other two.
  • No. 9 Montreal Canadiens: They have No. 9, No. 39 and No. 69. They also have P.K. Subban, but there are no insanity hearings scheduled in Montreal this summer.
  • No. 10 Colorado Avalanche: They have No. 10, No. 40 (I think) and No. 70. Fussy britches tweeted out something about a blockbuster between Colorado and Montreal. Could Nuge and No. 4 get you No. 10 and Tyson Barrie? Would you do that deal?

I would not, and have been very clear on the reasons why. That said, Tyson Barrie would be a great addition to this team and the value lost in going from No. 4 to No. 10 is not ridiculous. I wonder if Chiarelli regrets not naming Nuge to the WC roster? Might have sewered his value.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the Lowdown, TSN1260 at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Bruce’s sexy verbal about Matt Tkachuk has angried up the blood among Oilers fans. We will discuss.
  • Gerry Moddejonge, Edmonton Sun and Edmonton Journal. Eskimos!
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report. We will talk Memorial Cup and 2016 draft.

Text 10-1260 @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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74 Responses to "FARMLAND"

  1. zatch says:

    Trade idea from the admittedly wack hfboards:

    To Edm : Vatanen + Eller + 45th overall

    To Anaheim : 9th overall + Andrighetto/Carr/Hudon (Mtl nhl ready forward prospect)

    To Mtl : 4th overall + Yakupov

    Sort of neatly packages two teams people have been talking about. I don’t know why the Habs do it, but I don’t think it would take much to sweeten it enough.

  2. dcsj says:

    So I recognize everybody in that all star pic except 26. I am sure I’ll feel stupid when someone tells me, but help me out here, who is that?

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    I think the problem we have here is that we have a narrative that farm players must ‘dominate’ before the calls to the bigs.

    Other teams seem to have players that quietly develop in the NCAA or AHL, doing everything asked before quietly making the transition to the NHL with no noticeable change in their production. I believe the ‘domination’ players to be the outliers. I will try to dig up some examples and proof, but I’m at work preparing for the annual shutdown, so I may be a little slow in doing so.

  4. Bar_Qu says:

    dcsj,

    I think it’s Mike Krushelnyski

  5. bendelson says:

    dcsj,

    Krush.

    _____

    To pick up on a trade idea from yesterday’s thread:

    #4 and Yak for #9 and McCarron.

    Let’s finish that thought.

    #4, Yak and Lander for #9, McCarron and yes, Eller.

    Montreal will want cap space and this provides a little.
    Do I like the trade? No, not really – I just thought the trade proposal suggested was incomplete.

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    Guys, I think if that #4 gets traded, it’s for help on D.

    Might be wrong, but trading him for a new coke machine and someone who really doesn’t want to be here sounds like something the previous management would be all over.

  7. jimmers2 says:

    yup, Mike Krushelnyski. A real giant at the time (notice ‘lil Andy Moog?)

    EDIT: too late!

  8. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LT,

    I think the three Buffalo D you mentioned are all wildly different in terms of value and cost.

    Bogosian is an established top 4 D with a bunch of tools at the right age. I know he has his warts, this isn’t me advocating for or against him, but the reality is he is perceived to be at that level so his cost is what it is.

    I’m with you on Pysyk. Like the player, has developed nicely, might be a “get him while no one knows who he is type” much like our own Brandon Davidson. Would cost you something but not the moon.

    Franson. That’s a bullet dodged. Not to say he wouldn’t be in our top 6, just that with his contract he doesn’t represent value. Lots of people on this blog wanted to pay him $5 million with term 12 months ago. My point? I’ll take him on my team, but his acquisition cost should probably be Korpikoski or something like that. He’s certainly not the centerpiece of a trade down scenario.

  9. slopitch says:

    My buddy is in Red Deer watching the Memorial Cup. He knows hockey (played for the 97′ winterhawks which won the Memorial Cup with Hossa/Ference). Texted me the following RE Tkachuk.

    “My take on tkachuk: Gritty/smart/physical. Skating isnt great but prob good enough. Thinks like a pro already, loves being in front of the net. Like a smitty/steve ott hybrid.”

    FWIW I like the trade down idea. But only if you can get somelike like Stone or Muryphy.

  10. Caramel Batman says:

    zatch:
    Trade idea from the admittedly wack hfboards:

    To Edm : Vatanen + Eller + 45th overall

    To Anaheim : 9th overall + Andrighetto/Carr/Hudon (Mtl nhl ready forward prospect)

    To Mtl : 4th overall + Yakupov

    Sort of neatly packages two teams people have been talking about. I don’t know why the Habs do it, but I don’t think it would take much to sweeten it enough.

    That is a truly terrible trade for the Oilers. Gut wrenching bad. They absolutely have to do better than that.

    Trading down with the Coyotes (from the other thread) is incredibly good (#7 + Murphy for #4) so good that it is impossible and must have misread it.

    If the Oilers are going to take Dubois they should just do it. If they are going to take anyone else they should trade down for whatever they can get. I am certain of this.

    P.S. Certain doesn’t mean what you think it means.

  11. OF17 says:

    zatch,

    Personally, no way I make that deal. #4 and Yakupov for a (good) 3rd pairing special teams specialist, an overpaid 3C, and a mid 2nd. That would destroy so much value.

    bendelson,

    If Eller were a RHS and $1 million cheaper, I’d be more inclined. As it is, I don’t think the downgrades from 4 to 9 and Yak to McCarron (yes, IMO a downgrade) are worth the upgrade from Lander to Eller.

    And just so LT doesn’t feel left out (I can sense his relief from here), I agree that Nuge + 4th for Barrie + 10th is a bad idea. We’d be giving up the two best assets in the deal IMO.

  12. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    OF17,

    Agree.

    I wouldn’t trade 4th for 10th straight across… suspect I get near 100% agreement on that statement.

    I wouldn’t trade Nuge for Barrie straight across. It’s not the worst deal I’ve ever seen, and if Barrie had a reasonable contract with term in place I’d think about it, but right now I think I could get a better return for Nuge (or keep him).

    So obviously doing both is just insane.

  13. Snowman says:

    If the Oilers trade down and let Calgary take number 4 and all they come away with from that is number 6 and Dennis Wideman I’m going to lose my mind.

  14. bendelson says:

    OF17,

    I believe Eller is on the move.
    I hope it’s not to Edmonton.

    As mentioned by others, trading down with AZ for a defenceman is far more appealing IMO.

  15. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman,

    If your use of “certain” doesn’t mean what I think it means I am certain you are using the word “certain” incorrectly.

  16. Kepler62 says:

    If the Oilers want to sign 2 RHD and a backup and RW then Mark Fayne would have to go… $10M is not enough for all that. (I know Lowtide has $10.5M in space but let’s leave some room for error)

    It’s reasonable to budget ~$3M for the backup and RW together… however they want to split that would depend on the players – $1.3 for Chad Johnson and $1.7 for Chris Stewart? I like.

    You need to budget ~$5M for one of the RHD – let’s say Demers though it could be even higher.

    That only leaves ~$2M for another RHD addition and you don’t want to be right against the cap.

    So either you trade Mark Fayne somehow, or you accept that he’s not such a bad #4 Dman. Really if he’s the worst guy in your top 4 then you are not looking to bad – not Stanley, but he wouldn’t be the reason they miss the playoffs. He’s a good defender, just rather one-dimensional and the puck becomes a grenade on his stick.

    IF they keep him, that leaves $2M to add another winger, save for deadline additions or other transactions, or Eric Gryba. I’d highly favour giving Eric Gryba a $1.5M 2 year deal.

    IF they can trade him, that leaves ~$5.5M to sign Tyson Barrie or similar (once they get his rights).

    Now, I wonder if the Avs would be interested in taking Mark Fayne back in a deal involving Yakupov for Barrie? Shores up their RH side a bit.

  17. zatch says:

    OF17,

    Caramel Batman,

    It isn’t good, reading it more carefully haha.

    Should the 2018 first be dangled more than people talk about?

  18. Truth says:

    slopitch:

    “My take on tkachuk: Gritty/smart/physical. Skating isnt great but prob good enough. Thinks like a pro already, loves being in front of the net. Like a smitty/steve ott hybrid.”

    I have been trying to watch as much of the Mem. Cup as possible also. Within the first 15 seconds of watching Tkachuk my thought was “he must have just blocked a shot” as his skating was clearly laboured. He continued the rest of the game, sometimes looking fine and other times looking like he was in pain. I think it’s all tied to a knee injury suffered in the OHL Championship series.

    http://www.lfpress.com/2016/05/07/london-knights-defeat-niagara-ice-dogs-6-1-in-game-two-of-their-ohl-playoff-series

    If Tkachuk’s skating is viewed as “good enough” while playing through a knee injury, I don’t think there should be too much concern long term.

    Also, I’ve heard the talk about Dubois finishing near the highest in off-ice training and skating speed. That is a positive in the sense he has the commitment to get himself into shape at this early stage in his career, but does not allow for considerable improvement. There might be something to be said about Tkachuk’s “raw” physique in the sense that there should be room for considerable improvement with a full off-season of training with a professional staff.

    I do realize they both kids and will grow and mature. But is it possible Dubois is at something like 85% of his potential peak physical ability and Tkachuk is only at 75% (obviously pulling these numbers our of nowhere, just used as an example), and this could be viewed as a positive for drafting Tkachuk over Dubois?

  19. Doug McLachlan says:

    So fun to see Fussy Britches back on the Twitter. “She” is tweeting earlier this year than last – where she only showed up in late June IIRC.

    At #4 I really think I would be ok with any of the options on the board: Tkachuk is the top prospect from the top league, Dubois may be just as good or even better, Craig Button isn’t wrong to suggest that if you want elite #1 D you have to draft them so any of the trio would work for me except that it seems clear that one can trade down and still get one of the three. So…let’s find a fit.

    #5 – Can’t see the ‘Nucks feeling any need to trade up one spot

    #6 – Still hardwired to think that an Oilers-Flames trade violates some law of physics. Cameron seems to think that the Flames are more focused on dealing Mikael Backlund to Columbus as part of an effort to move to third and select Puliarvi – don’t see the Jackets dealing the other Finn but one never knows.

    #7 – Ok, the idea of a flip of 4 for 7 with a sweetener thrown in by Arizona seems reasonable to at least look at. Stone or Murphy would be a fine pick-up but I really don’t know the value of moving up three slots.

    #8 – Strange that a 4 for 8 swap seems the least discussed option as the “make a splash when you host the draft”, as Buffalo does this year, is one of the older MSM themes related to the draft. Trading into the top three doesn’t seem likely so a move up to #4 is the next best option on offer. Buffalo also has, in RHD, a relative surplus of what Edmonton desires. We’ve talked a lot about RFA RHDs that the Oilers might acquire from a variety of sources but never does Rasmus Ristolainen’s name come up. I’d be fascinated to know what the ask from the Sabres would be for him – very interested.

    #9 – The Habs might presumably be interested in moving up from 9 to 5, so as to take Dubois, but what is the incentive for Edmonton? An idea that hit me as I read Ms. Fussy Britches trio of tweets last night – specifically the one linking Yakupov to Mtl and the one indicating that Klefbom might be available – was that if we were to get the unbelievable improvement on the back end it might cost far more than we’ve contemplated to date. Would Klefbom, Nuge, Yak and the 4th get us Subban, Eller, McCarron and the 9th? The $ is close ($12.67M for the Oil and $13.36M for the Habs) but that drastically changes the look of both teams moving forward. Not going to happen, but something much smaller, and possibly involving Yak, is possible. Would Yak and the 4th get you Eller, McCarron and the 9th? Maybe?

    #10 – How is it that Barrie might actually be available? Again, not sure how realistic it is to expect that Edmonton could get him but if they are in on the deal I would imagine that a flip of 4th for 10th would be part of the package. While I don’t really think that the crazy pills are being swallowed in Montreal – I can totally believe it happening in Denver. Roy was an amazing goaltender but giving him any control over the roster composition is nutty. Get in there Chia and rob them blind!

  20. godot10 says:

    Snowman:
    If the Oilers trade down and let Calgary take number 4 and all they come away with from that is number 6 and Dennis Wideman I’m going to lose my mind.

    Wideman has negative value. Calgary would have to pay me to take him.

  21. godot10 says:

    bendelson:
    OF17,

    I believe Eller is on the move.
    I hope it’s not to Edmonton.

    As mentioned by others, trading down with AZ for a defenceman is far more appealing IMO.

    I like that…but Arizona probably wants to draft a defensemen, so why would they trade up. They are in the sweet spot at #7 for drafting a defensemen.

  22. Ducey says:

    Sorry LT, but I cannot agree with you on Winquist.

    His value to you is based solely on his boxcars.

    He put up 30 pts in 35 games. That’s hardly spectacular. In fact, its hardly passable for someone that’s supposed to be an offensive player. If he was 20, it would be great, but he will be 23 in September. By comparison, Leon will be 21 in October.

    He had just 8 points in the last two months (14 games). 11 of his 30 points were on the PP. He only generated 59 shots, or just under two a game.

    None of this is particularly great.

    It kind of mirrors his junior career. He had 41 points in 68 games in his draft year. The next year he had 51 in 51. It wasn’t until his draft +2 that he put up 93 points in 67 games.

    So there is some indication he can adapt to a level if given enough time.

    The problem is that he will be expected to step into an NHL team someday and start putting up points right away. Unless you want to move one of McDavid, Nuge, Leon, Hall, Eberle, Pouliot, Marron, et al off the PP for him, he isn’t going to get PP time.

    So you have a guy that does not profile as a checker, doesn’t PK, isn’t not going to be a physical player (he is a slight (6′ 180 lbs), who isn’t going to get PP minutes. He does not have a range of skills.

    At best he will be a AAAA player (a fringe NHLer).

    Saying that he is better than some of the guys on the 50 man isn’t really the point. Andrew Miller, Marc Arcobello, Tony Rajala, all were better than many of the guys on the 50 man (at least if you look at boxcars). All either did not make it, or are fringe NHL players.

    If you don’t foresee the guy playing on your team someday, don’t sign him.

  23. dustrock says:

    If you’re interested on some lower rounds mock draft, here’s Steve Kourinanos on Rounds 3 and 4. He is obviously assuming Chiarelli is looking for a certain “type” of player.

    http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/mock-drafts/2016-may-3rd/

    http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/mock-drafts/2016-may-4th/

  24. dustrock says:

    Ducey,

    Basically: Your annual reminder that Alexandre Giroux was a hella scorer at the AHL level.

  25. Loyal2theoil says:

    Thinking about Dubois, does he compare to Monahan somewhat?

    Doing just my own little mock draft project and realized that Monahan was 38 points ahead of the next best player on his team in his draft year, while Dubois was 20 points ahead.

    I can see some parallels in their game however..

    Whats your opinion?

  26. Ducey says:

    godot10: Wideman has negative value.Calgary would have to pay me to take him.

    I would take him.

    I could probably use him around the house. My fence needs to be redone and I am in the middle of renovating a bathroom. Hopefully he can hang drywall.

    They would have to pay me too though. I don’t have $10.50 million kicking around.

  27. OilClog says:

    godot10: I like that…but Arizona probably wants to draft a defensemen, so why would they trade up.They are in the sweet spot at #7 for drafting a defensemen.

    Arizona would be tickled pink bringing in Keith’s kid.

    If they can get him, they’ll part with a defender. Murphy or Stone.

    #4 & Yak for #7 & defender.

  28. Ducey says:

    dustrock:
    Ducey,

    Basically: Your annual reminder that Alexandre Giroux was a hella scorer at the AHL level.

    You could have chipped in earlier and saved me all that typing 🙂

  29. godot10 says:

    Loyal2theoil:
    Thinking about Dubois, does he compare to Monahan somewhat?

    Doing just my own little mock draft project and realized that Monahan was 38 points ahead of the next best player on his team in his draft year, while Dubois was 20 points ahead.

    I can see some parallels in their game however..

    Whats your opinion?

    Monahan was one of the older players in his draft (like Tkachuk). Dubois is one of the younger players in the draft.

  30. Loyal2theoil says:

    godot10,

    I shouldve remembered that hahah still some intangibles they share i think

  31. bendelson says:

    godot10: I like that…but Arizona probably wants to draft a defensemen, so why would they trade up.They are in the sweet spot at #7 for drafting a defensemen.

    A trade down with AZ would be predicated on the belief that they would be very interested in Tkachuk (or another) at #4. New GM. No track record. Pure speculation.

  32. Ducey says:

    OilClog: Arizona would be tickled pink bringing in Keith’s kid.

    If they can get him, they’ll part with a defender. Murphy or Stone.

    #4 & Yak for #7 & defender.

    I like that. Its tempting enough for ARI (they could wind up with 2 very good offensive players) and the Oilers get a good pick and I like those D.

    Also because I would love to see how Yak would react to Dave “No Systems Here” Tippett. Could be his Cogliano moment, or he could bolt to the USSR.

  33. rickithebear says:

    OKC-Bakersfield D EVGA/GM last 2 seasons minimum 14gm.
    1. Davidson 14-15 32G/55gm .582 GA/gm
    2. Musil 14-15 38G/65gm .585
    3. Simpson 14-15 44/71 .620
    4. Betker 15-16 9/14 .642
    5. Simpson 15-16 39/57 .684
    6. Gernat 14-15 37/54 .685
    7. Oesterle 14-15 47/65 .723
    8.Musil 15-16 50/67 .748
    9. Marincin 14-15 21/28 .750
    10. laleggia 15-16 50/63 .794
    11. Reinhart 15-16 24/30 .800
    12. nikitin 15-16 24/30 .800
    13. Hunt 14-15 53/62 .855
    14. Hunt 15-16 50/57 .877
    15. Oesterle 15-16 41/44 .932

    Davidson; Musil; Simpson were interesting Def D in 14-15
    Betker; Simpson; Musil were evident in 15-16

  34. OF17 says:

    bendelson,

    I wouldn’t mind Eller if he’s cheap and we can send some salary out. Hendricks for Eller could be the basis of a deal (though I’d hate to lose Hendricks). Eller is below guys like Shaw, Bozak, Wingels, and Fehr on my list of two way guys for the top 9 though.

    zatch,

    I personally would be very reluctant to trade future 1sts. Have to give up the Chiarelli 2nd, which sucks, so we don’t have an overabundance of either picks or prospects to trade. Then there’s the issue of sustain. If we do actually get good, we’re going to need that next wave of Teravainen/Hertl types to sustain success. Keeping your 1sts until it really is time to win the Cup is the best way to ensure that.

    godot10,

    I see Arizona preferring a forward actually. They already have their defense locked down, and they have the start of a good forward core, but maybe losing Hanzal won’t help that. Going forward with OEL + Stone + Murphy and Strome + Dubois + Domi + Duclair is a very nice prospect. Pepper that with veterans, and the Coyotes should be a competitive team in the coming years.

    Ducey,

    Our problem is that we don’t have enough Arcobello types, not that we have too many of them. Yeah, it was dumb of MacT to play Arcobello so high in the lineup, but having an offensively talented player on the farm for injuries would be nice. Much better than throwing Hendricks/Korpikoski onto a scoring line and Khaira onto the 4th. Even if he never becomes a full-time NHL player, Winquist would give us that option. That has value, certainly more value than an open spot on the 50 man list IMO, especially considering how few picks we have to sign.

  35. godot10 says:

    bendelson: A trade down with AZ would be predicated on the belief that they would be very interested in Tkachuk (or another) at #4.New GM.No track record.Pure speculation.

    They hired a stats guru as GM. Why would place-of-birth sway an advanced stats GM.

    Arizona has Domi and Duclair on LW. Strome at centre. Time to draft a successor toe Ekman-Larsson.

  36. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: They hired a stats guru as GM.Why would place-of-birth sway an advanced stats GM.

    Arizona has Domi and Duclair on LW.Strome at centre.Time to draft a successor toe Ekman-Larsson.

    He’s only 24. I don’t think he needs a successor; maybe a little help.

  37. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    I think Colorado would jump all over Hendricks, Yak , and our second pick , for Barrie

  38. GCW_69 says:

    I think Chase is still of interest. He didn’t seem to get a lot of opportunity in rules that would allow him to succeed last year (depth lines with guys who can’t score). Hopefully this year the Oilers will gift fewer roles in the Condors top six to veterans with no chance at a NHL career and instead keep at keep four of the top six roles open and have the young players with upside compete to earn the spots. Chase shouldn’t competing with 10 year AHL vets for a top six role, he should be competing with other under 23s. That way he has to earn the spot, but against his peers.

    The development system as currently run is doing the Edmonton Oilers few favours.

  39. Younger Oil says:

    I agree that we should sign Winquist. Much more valuable than other RFAs we could sign. Though, with him being a St. Albert kid, I wonder if another team offered him an NHL contract if he would give the Oilers a chance to match it out of loyalty.

    I would also keep Pitlick. He is a very solid 4th line player when he is healthy (which admittedly is rarely), but I love how he hits everything in sight, not many Oilers do that. I would much prefer him getting top 6 AHL minutes rather than people like Ryan Hamilton.

    As for trading the 4th OV pick, trading it to Calgary or Arizona guarantees that both Tkachuk and Dubois are playing in our division for at least the next decade. That is just such a dumb trade unless you are getting something substantial. Remember what Vancouver was making us offer for Schneider compared to the Devils?

  40. bendelson says:

    godot10: They hired a stats guru as GM.Why would place-of-birth sway an advanced stats GM.

    Arizona has Domi and Duclair on LW.Strome at centre.Time to draft a successor toe Ekman-Larsson.

    Place of birth? I didn’t mention anything about that Godot.

  41. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Younger Oil:
    Remember what Vancouver was making us offer for Schneider compared to the Devils?

    To be fair, pretty much every decision the Vancouver management group has made since the Schneider trade has been a bad one, so maybe we don’t base our decisions on that particular line of reasoning.

  42. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!. LT says: “The Oilers simply have to get something out of their farm system”

    – What is a reasonable output from a farm system, excluding high first-rounders? Should an effective farm team be producing more than two players a year that make it the NHL?

    – This season, Pak and Davidson were what I’d call effective development from the farm: they played some the year before, then established their worth this year.

    – Last year, Lander was effective development (though not sure what happens to him after this year). And Marincin played an effective role on another team

    – So that’s 4 players in last 2 years who came up from AHL and played a role in the NHL

    – Sure none of them are great, but they fit needs on teams, and were cheap.

    – I don’t know who in the AHL graduates this year, but how much really do teams get out of AHL?

  43. McSorley33 says:

    So in a a year where there is a lot of uncertainty after pick 3 an NHL team will trade up a few slots and give us a Connor Murphy?

    Just to move up a few spots……

    New GM John Chayka is going to do this…..

    Alright then…..

  44. Ducey says:

    McSorley33:
    So in a a year where there is a lot of uncertainty after pick 3 an NHL team will trade up a few slots and give us an Connor Murphy?

    Just to move up a few spots……

    New GM John Chayka is going to do this…..

    Alright then…..

    Oilclog was throwing in Yak too.

    Alright now?

    In other (surprising) news, apparently Ralph Krueger is a favourite for the Flames coaching job.

    http://www.theprovince.com/touch/story.html?id=11939890

    As many as 10 candidates may be considered for the Flames’ position and the front-runners now appear to be New Jersey Devils assistant coach Geoff Ward and former Edmonton Oilers head coach Ralph Krueger. Flames GM Brad Treliving has cited the experience of building something of significance at various levels in the game as being a key criteria to develop his young players and get the Flames back to the playoffs.

  45. McSorley33 says:

    There are people that don’t want to sign Winquist after he out scores our drafted prospects….even though he even played less games?

    Quite the message to send prospective players trying to make the NHL.

    Please sign him….

  46. Lowetide says:

    McSorley33:
    So in a a year where there is a lot of uncertainty after pick 3 an NHL team will trade up a few slots and give us a Connor Murphy?

    Just to move up a few spots……

    New GM John Chayka is going to do this…..

    Alright then…..

    Not at all what I said. Seriously, this is what I wrote

    No. 7 Arizona Coyotes: They have No. 20, No. 37 and No. 67. Also, defenders Michael Stone and Connor Murphy would be of interest—availability has not been confirmed.

    HOW on earth can you reach the conclusion expressed? Strange days for Oilers fans.

  47. Cahoon says:

    Ducey,

    I like Ralph a lot and I think he was an underrated coach, so I hope he isn’t the coach of the Flames, but if he is I will be happy for him to get back into hockey. If he becomes coach of the Flames, maybe they will try to get Yak while his value is low and Ralph will unleash the beast once more.

  48. Younger Oil says:

    Lowetide: Not at all what I said. Seriously, this is what I wrote

    No. 7 Arizona Coyotes: They have No. 20, No. 37 and No. 67. Also, defenders Michael Stone and Connor Murphy would be of interest—availability has not been confirmed.

    HOW on earth can you reach the conclusion expressed? Strange days for Oilers fans.

    Not to speak for him, but I don’t think his comment was directed towards you, a few other people earlier in the thread were suggesting that kind of trade.

  49. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!.LT says: “The Oilers simply have to get something out of their farm system”

    – What is a reasonable output from a farm system, excluding high first-rounders?Should an effective farm team be producing more than two players a year that make it the NHL?

    – This season,Pak and Davidson were what I’d call effective development from the farm: they played some the year before, then established their worth this year.

    – Last year, Lander was effective development (though not sure what happens to him after this year).And Marincin played an effective role on another team

    – So that’s 4 players in last 2 years who came up from AHL and played a role in the NHL

    – Sure none of them are great, but they fit needs on teams, and were cheap.

    – I don’t know who in the AHL graduates this year, but how much really do teams get out of AHL?

    Lander (for me) is a continuation of the problem. If Edmonton had kept him in the minors for much of his entry-level deal, we might have a better player. As it is, among Lander, Marincin, Pakarinen and Davidson, how many can we count as surefire NHL players?

  50. kinger_OIL says:

    Cahoon:
    Ducey,

    I like Ralph a lot and I think he was an underrated coach, so I hope he isn’t the coach of the Flames, but if he is I will be happy for him to get back into hockey. If he becomes coach of the Flames, maybe they will try to get Yak while his value is low and Ralph will unleash the beast once more.

    Some combo of Dallas and Ralph coaching together would be great!

    – On a separate note: re: Yak and the Habs. They would no doubt value Dubois as potential francophone C. That’s two nice pieces as part of package for Subban. What else? Klef and any AHL’er: like Osterle. Does #4, Klef, Yak, plus AHL’er get ‘er done?

  51. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide,

    – Yeah I agree, none are really great, except Davy small sample size. Marincin had a good small sample size of goodness, as did Lander. Pak is “energy player +”

    – What is a good result for AHL development though? 2 a year promotion but with bigger impact than those 4?

    – Clearly we aren’t good at development.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Sorry LT, but I cannot agree with you on Winquist.

    His value to you is based solely on his boxcars.

    He put up 30 pts in 35 games. That’s hardly spectacular. In fact, its hardly passable for someone that’s supposed to be an offensive player.If he was 20, it would be great, but he will be 23 in September. By comparison, Leon will be 21 in October.

    He had just 8 points in the last two months (14 games). 11 of his 30 points were on the PP. He only generated 59 shots, or just under two a game.

    None of this is particularly great.

    It kind of mirrors his junior career. He had 41 points in 68 games in his draft year. The next year he had 51 in 51. It wasn’t until his draft +2 that he put up 93 points in 67 games.

    So there is some indication he can adapt to a level if given enough time.

    The problem is that he will be expected to step into an NHL team someday and start putting up points right away. Unless you want to move one of McDavid, Nuge, Leon, Hall, Eberle, Pouliot, Marron, et al off the PP for him, he isn’t going to get PP time.

    So you have a guy that does not profile as a checker, doesn’t PK, isn’t not going to be a physical player (he is a slight (6′ 180 lbs), who isn’t going to get PP minutes. He does not have a range of skills.

    At best he will be a AAAA player (a fringe NHLer).

    Saying that he is better than some of the guys on the 50 man isn’t really the point. Andrew Miller, Marc Arcobello, Tony Rajala, all were better than many of the guys on the 50 man (at least if you look at boxcars). All either did not make it, or are fringe NHL players.

    If you don’t foresee the guy playing on your team someday, don’t sign him.

    You’re missing the forest for the trees.

    Winquist passed the first test – scored very well in the AHL.

    They need to continue down the path with him.

    They need to cut loose others.

    Its always a process of trying these guys out because you can’t pick out which make it and which don’t at this point, but Winquist has arrows saying that “he has a chance” and that’s better than over 50% of the players under contract at this point.

    He isn’t too old either, he did all of this in his 22 year old year.

    WInquist (6’0″) 22 year old year 0.86/gm in AHL

    In Pisani’s (6’1″) 22 year old year he was still in college.

    Other relevant 22 year old years:

    Tyler Johnson (undrafted – 5’8″) scored 1.04/gm in the AHL in his 22 year old year

    Matt Read (undrafted – 5″10″) was still in college scoring 1.08 (translates to less than 0.86 in AHL)

    Mark Letestu (undrafted – 5’10”) AHL 0.346pts/gm

    Matts Zuccarelloo (undrafted – 5’7″) AHL 0.81pts/gm in his 23 year old year – SEL in 22 year old year

    David Desharnais (undrafted – 5’7″) AHL 0.75 pts/gm

    I could go on and on but you should get the point.

    You declaring who can make it and who can’t is pure bullshit and you’ve been posting here long enough to know that.

    You’re ignoring the two things that are the best indicators for late bloomers: points/gm and continual improvement from year to year.

    We don’t know if Winquist will make or not at this point, but history tells us he has a pretty good chance, better than most who played for the Condors this year.

    You don’t throw that away Mr. Tambellini.

  53. Snowman says:

    kinger_OIL: Some combo of Dallas and Ralph coaching together would be great!

    – On a separate note: re: Yak and the Habs.They would no doubt value Dubois as potential francophone C.That’s two nice pieces as part of package for Subban.What else? Klef and any AHL’er: like Osterle.Does #4, Klef, Yak, plus AHL’er get ‘er done?

    I was just writing a post about how Montreal would have to add but by the end of it I had written that it’s a hard deal for Montreal to make. So you’re probably in the ball park. I don’t think I would do that deal. The #4 has extreme value and if Klef ever figures out who has his voodoo doll that would be a loss for the Oilers because of the value of Klef’s cheap long deal.

    Like I said though you’re in the ballpark I would bet.

    Still don’t think Montreal can move Subban though. That’s just a tough sell to the owner and the fans.

    If you’re Montreal do you make that trade?

  54. GCW_69 says:

    Loyal2theoil:
    Thinking about Dubois, does he compare to Monahan somewhat?

    Doing just my own little mock draft project and realized that Monahan was 38 points ahead of the next best player on his team in his draft year, while Dubois was 20 points ahead.

    I can see some parallels in their game however..

    Whats your opinion?

    The thing the Oilers should like about Dubois is that he is a goal scorer. Nuge is a playmaker. Leon looks like a playmaker. McDavid is an amazing playmaker. Hall seems to have evolved into a playmaker if you look at his goals to assists ratio and note he hasn’t cracked 30 goals let. This team needs guys for all these passers to pass to who can snipe.

    Tkachuk was 22nd in OHL goal scoring and second in assists. Another playmaker. Sure he scored 20 goals in the OHL playoffs, but he did it on 28% shooting percentage and it’s such a small sample I don’t trust it. Dubois was fifth in his league for goal scoring.

  55. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69: The thing the Oilers should like about Dubois is that he is a goal scorer.Nuge is a playmaker.Leon looks like a playmaker. McDavid is an amazing playmaker. Hall seems to have evolved into a playmaker if you look at his goals to assists ratio and note he hasn’t cracked 30 goals let. This team needs guys for all these passers to pass to who can snipe.

    Tkachuk was 22nd in OHL goal scoring and second in assists.Another playmaker. Sure he scored 20 goals in the OHL playoffs, but he did it on 28% shooting percentage and it’s such a small sample I don’t trust it.Dubois was fifth in his league for goal scoring.

    Good points.

    LT pointed out primary points (goal or first assist) the other day and Dubois was significantly ahead in that too.

  56. Jordan says:

    With regards to the 2nd round pick compensation… The pick that is given to Boston – does it have to be the Oilers 2nd round pick? Or can it be anyones 2nd?

    The Oilers 3rd round pick is only 2 spots out of the 2nd. Would that and the 7th move it up two spots so it’s in the second round? If so, that pick could then be shipped to Boston for Chia.

    Does anyone have any insight on the rules around a play like this?

  57. kinger_OIL says:

    Just doing some extrapolating:

    – Between 1990 and 1999, there were 2,600 names called at the NHL Entry Draft.

    – As of 2007, 494 of those players have appeared in at least 200 NHL games (19%)

    – Of the 494 career players drafted, 160 were selected in the first round (that’s 5 a team)

    So at a point in time, with 750 NHL players: approx 20% of them come from the first round. That means that 18 players per team on average have to come from development.

    – If I said 2 a year from the AHL, on a garbage team like the OIL that’s a lot of asking from a farm team, and we have clearly failed on that level.

    – Which means we are competing for trades from a pool of approx 600 NHL players, and we didn’t do well there either

    – In summary: not enough NHL players, poor development from AHL, bad trades and bottom-feeding free-agent signings.

  58. Snowman says:

    Woodguy,

    I read an article this morning that talked about Tkachuk’s point totals and he dug into how many were primary and secondary. Tkachuk is not quite as good but I came away from the article less concerned about Tkachuk getting points he didn’t deserve necessarily.

    I go back and forth about the two..

    This isn’t the article but it gives the same impression to me about Tkachuk’s secondary point totals. He might be full credit for a lot them.

    http://www.hockeyprophets.com/index.php/recent-analysis/154-matt-tkachuk-s-secondary-assists-2015-2016

  59. Doug McLachlan says:

    Jordan,

    My understanding is that the compensatory pick must be the Oilers’ own, unless Boston agrees to take another (as SJ did last year for McLellan). The compensation needs to be paid this year or next so a high 3rd this year might be worth more to Boston than an uncertain 2nd next year.

    One further wrinkle that LT posted about on the weekend, Pierr LaVoie of TVA reported that the NHLPA grieved the compensation rules on the grounds that it would, potentially, hinder Offer Sheets. As a result, the Oilers would still have the use of their own 2017 2nd for use in an Offer Sheet and, if successful with the bid, the compensation owed to Boston would shift to 2018.

    Clear as mud now?

  60. OF17 says:

    I guess for those against signing Winquist, who are you going to use that contract space on who’s better? Keep in mind we’re talking AHL callup options, not established NHLers. If you can’t name someone, your argument is moot.

    The Oilers aren’t close to the 50 man limit, so flexibility is moot too. The Oilers need more top-6 injury callup options. So again, the question becomes, if Winquist isn’t worth a contract, who is?

  61. Centre of attention says:

    OF17:
    I guess for those against signing Winquist, who are you going to use that contract space on who’s better? Keep in mind we’re talking AHL callup options, not established NHLers. If you can’t name someone, your argument is moot.

    The Oilers aren’t close to the 50 man limit, so flexibility is moot too. The Oilers need more top-6 injury callup options. So again, the question becomes, if Winquist isn’t worth a contract, who is?

    IMO The Oilers chose to sign Drake instead of Winquist, so take from that what you will.

    Bakersfield LW depth chart:

    Hamilton
    Cagguila
    Slepyshev
    Christoffer

    Obviously they don’t see him as a center, or else Winquist could easily switch over there and take Bogdan’s spot as 2C after he inevitably runs back to Russia.

    For what its worth, I would sign the kid. I’m sure the Oilers offered him another AHL deal and he said no, so here we are.

  62. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Lowetide,

    – Yeah I agree, none are really great, except Davy small sample size.Marincin had a good small sample size of goodness, as did Lander.Pak is “energy player +”

    – What is a good result for AHL development though?2 a year promotion but with bigger impact than those 4?

    – Clearly we aren’t good at development.

    I have asked that question many times and never really (in my mind) answered it properly. Oilers are not good at it, and really never have been good at it.

  63. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: I have asked that question many times and never really (in my mind) answered it properly. Oilers are not good at it, and really never have been good at it.

    Sounds like a series of posts fit for the summer doldrums.

    How does the Oilers development system compare to that of the rest of the NHL?
    I think you could spend nearly a month on this with G-Money, Woodguy, Mr. Bear and others working to put together some context about how you define success in development compared to failures in drafting.

  64. thehop says:

    Centre of attention: IMO The Oilers chose to sign Drake instead of Winquist, so take from that what you will.

    Bakersfield LW depth chart:

    Hamilton
    Cagguila
    Slepyshev
    Christoffer

    Obviously they don’t see him as a center, or else Winquist could easily switch over there and take Bogdan’s spot as 2C after he inevitably runs back to Russia.

    For what its worth, I would sign the kid. I’m sure the Oilers offered him another AHL deal and he said no, so here we are.

    This got me to thinking about a debate me and my old timey hockey dad had about development in the minors.

    My dad believes every great team has a veteran presence on every line. I think that’s bullshit.

    If Hamilton is getting pp/pk/ and first line minutes, I’ll fuck my hat because to me that explains why the oilers can develop prospects in the farm system.

    Cherry minutes… And lots of them should be spent on guys like The Russians and the college kids and draft picks.Not on some 30 year old wash out or anyone who has made a career as an AHLer.

    Lt do you have deployment and toi for the Condors from last year? Is that info even available? I would love to peruse how these guys are being used and how much they are being used.

  65. rickithebear says:

    I tried to find any situations similar to the Tkachuk and Dubois question.
    Were a young player was the third wheel on a line with older and potential NHL players.
    While a Dubois type player was another option.

    Steve Kelly played left wing with 18 year old Dennis Pederson and 19 year old Paul Healey with
    primary numbers that dropped the next year. Specifically EVg production.
    but he received a large PP push.

    Shane doan also benefited form Play with veteran players. but had proved his primary point value while racking 24 and 24 at 16 yrs old. He experienced a standard growth in production from 16 to 17.

    So i am nervous looking at a potential Steve Kelly in Tkachuk!

  66. Evilas says:

    Jordan: Sounds like a series of posts fit for the summer doldrums.

    How does the Oilers development system compare to that of the rest of the NHL?
    I think you could spend nearly a month on this with G-Money, Woodguy, Mr. Bear and others working to put together some context about how you define success in development compared to failures in drafting.

    LT,

    You have inspired of few Blogs through this one. Have you considered doing a series with some of these guys? I am not sure what topic, but there are quite a few brilliant minds posting here…..maybe mock drafts, since it is most relevant…maybe their plan to “Make the Oilers great again”. T’would be of interest to the masses I am sure.

  67. Evilas says:

    Also, if anyone needs help for their projects, I am available to review up to 10 games, maybe a few more if required.

    Wheat ‘n Oil,

    Are you still looking for volunteers?

  68. fifthcartel says:

    The Oilers not signing Winquist is insanity with how little actual NHL forward prospects they have.

  69. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: You’re missing the forest for the trees.

    Winquist passed the first test – scored very well in the AHL.

    They need to continue down the path with him.

    They need to cut loose others.

    Its always a process of trying these guys out because you can’t pick out which make it and which don’t at this point, but Winquist has arrows saying that “he has a chance” and that’s better than over 50% of the players under contract at thi

    Other relevant 22 year old years:

    Tyler Johnson (undrafted – 5’8″)scored 1.04/gm in the AHL in his 22 year old year

    Matt Read (undrafted – 5″10″) was still in college scoring 1.08 (translates to less than 0.86 in AHL)

    Mark Letestu (undrafted – 5’10”) AHL 0.346pts/gm

    Matts Zuccarelloo (undrafted – 5’7″) AHL 0.81pts/gm in his 23 year old year – SEL in 22 year old year

    David Desharnais (undrafted – 5’7″) AHL 0.75 pts/gm

    I could go on and on but you should get the point.

    I would say none of those guys are really relevant with the exception of possibly Desharnais.

    Most of those guys were signed out of college. Zucarello out of Europe. Johnson was signed before playing a single game pro. Desharnais was signed after a season in the ECHL.

    Winquist has spent good parts of two seasons in the AHL. Thats the only development league in the world where roughly 30 GMs and coaching staffs are directly employed by NHL teams.

    None of the other players you listed got the type of exposure to every team in the NHL that Winquist has had without receiving a contract.

    I think we have to admit that NHL gms can sometimes recognize a Dustin Jeffery or an Alexandre Giroux when the math can’t.

  70. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ricki

    I would have looked at Kane Kostitsyn and Gagner in London in OHL in 06/07. Two 17 year olds and a 19 year old. Kane was the top scorer in the OHL 62-83 145 pts, Kostitsyn had 40-91 131pts and Gagner 35-83 118 pts

    We clearly know today who drove that line and I expect discerning scouts at the time strongly suspected that Kane wasa driver for many of Gagner and Kostitsyn’s points

    If DuBois/Tkachuk have similar production I’d wonder what DuBois could do on Marner’s line

  71. rickithebear says:

    Other john;
    Dubois’s age NHLE was better than marner’s

    the question is how much better would Marner be with dubois the 3rd best since 05-06.

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