START AS YOU MEAN TO GO

In a previous life, I sat through a lot of seminars. Some of them were very insightful (A woman who told me that 80 percent of success is following through was right, but I will be damned if I can improve my average). One time I spent an afternoon with a priest and we talked about God. My goodness he knew a lot about God—and me, being that I am human and all. At one point, he turned to me and said ‘once you know, you know!’ and I understood. My wife always says ‘start as you mean to go’ and that might be the best advice I have heard since my Dad died.

ONCE YOU KNOW, YOU KNOW

  • Peter Chiarelli: “I can tell you I expect (Sekera) to be in our top four, Klefbom will be in our top four, Justin Schultz will be, I would hope he would be in our top four. Nikita Nikitin, who had a disappointing season last year, who was brought in to play in the top four. We’ve got some guys we acquired, Griffin Reinhart, who I believe is a terrific player. I think he needs a little time to get up and running before I can anoint him in the top four. We have Eric Gryba who I think is a real strong shutdown D, we can probably shuttle him up at certain points. We’ve got three legitimate, we don’t have a workhorse right now.”

That was last summer and we saw what that looked like. Andrej Sekera and Mark Fayne were both healthy and effective, but after that it was a train wreck of injuries and ineffectiveness. And, no matter what we get out of this, we know Peter Chiarelli knows what he knows.

Question: What will he do about it?

We talk about Jason Demers and Tyson Barrie and Justin Faulk, but what if Edmonton is shopping in a different area of the pool. What if Peter Chiarelli’s white board included Brent Seabrook and Dan Girardi and Erik Gudbranson?

We may have gotten part of our answer yesterday.

ALL THE OPTIONS!

  • Joe Haggerty, CSNNE.com: According to separate hockey sources, there has been some level of recent trade discussion about veterans Zdeno Chara and Brad Marchand with other teams around the league, just to name a few B’s players. The talks haven’t been substantial but more exploratory in nature, as the team quietly gauges the market value of higher-priced veterans who may not fit in the long-term picture if the decision is made to tear down the current roster. Source

I can absolutely see the Oilers being in on both. One good thing: The Bruins are still acting a little weird about Chiarelli. I would not pursue either player (and would not pursue Lucic), but PC may feel an infusion of his old team’s success is just what the doctor ordered.

A quick note: I love both of these players, and if this was a decade ago (Chara) or even four years ago (Marchand) it might be a different story. Both men have some significant wear and play a very grueling style. I would pass on the opportunity in both cases—unless the ask is far less than we would anticipate.

START AS YOU MEAN TO GO

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (Jason Demers, Justin Faulk)
  2. Backup goalie (Jhonas Enroth, James Reimer)
  3. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (Tyson Barrie/Sami Vatanen)
  4. Acquire RHC with some skill (Small group available. Andrew Shaw? Tommy Wingels? Tyler Bozak?)
  5. Offload unwanted contract (Lauri Korpikoski)

Oilers may have to acquire a LHC for the 3C (if they are going to deal a C), and then run Letestu as 4line. I don’t think PC will accomplish all of these things but he could (as he did last season) make an attempt on all fronts. Last year’s haul—Sekera, Talbot, Letestu, Reinhart, Korpikoski, Gryba—was wildly uneven, as one would expect from such an aggressive summer. I look forward to the day when tweaks are required, fine tools are used. Another wrench summer lies ahead.

One small item: Can we agree that balance of the roster and depth beyond the roster are key elements this summer? Can we agree that training camp and pre-season are vital to Edmonton’s success? That starting with the best 19 men opening night is absolutely vital? That the World Cup of Hockey should not be the priority for any executive or coach?

CHIARELLI ASSET LIST

  1. Benoit Pouliot
  2. Young LHD (Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart, Brandon Davidson)
  3. Cap space
  4. Jordan Eberle
  5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  6. Nail Yakupov
  7. No. 4 overall selection
  8. 2017 1st round selection

I have moved Pouliot and Nurse to the top, not because they are my top trade options—but rather, those are the areas of depth on the current roster.

TODD MCLELLAN AND SAN JOSE

mclellan oy

You will hear a lot about the San Jose Sharks being in the Stanley Cup Final this spring, and because Oilers fans can see Mr. Murphy and his law from 24 miles away some of this will land on the current Edmonton coach.

Is the coaching change part of San Jose’s success? Yes, I would say so. Just as we have seen many times in sports history (Pittsburgh Penguins under Dan Bylsma being a recent example, there are tons in baseball), a long time coach can reach a point of being too long at the Fair. That may in fact be the case with McLellan and San Jose.

No one will talk about this today, because runaway trains in this town start early and end late. I would encourage you to look at last season’s team and then note the additions this year: Martin Jones, Joel Ward, Paul Martin, Joonas Donskoi. San Jose is deeper, faster and healthy.

Todd McLellan brought a consistent team to the playoffs (pretty much) every year, but could not reach the finals. If Vlasic had been healthy against Los Angeles, would that have been his year? We don’t know what we don’t know, but you could make the argument.

There will be people who will tell you today that Todd McLellan is not a good coach, the Oilers bought a lemon. They will say his usage of Darnell Nurse and Lauri Korpikoski is proof positive of flawed reason and lack of vision.

I encourage you to insist on a greater sample size, and to think through the options available to the coach as replacements. Todd McLellan may never win a Stanley Cup in Edmonton, but I do not think the current performance of the San Jose Sharks offers us any proof either way.

That is what I believe.

MCLELLAN’S ROOKIES

  • 2008-09: Tomas Plihal (64 games);Jamie McGinn (35); Brad Staubitz (35); Lukas Kaspar (13); Derek Joslin (12); Riley Armstrong (2 games).
  • 2009-10: Jason Demers (51 games); Logan Couture (25); Derek Joslin (24); Benn Ferriero (24); Frazer McLaren (23); John McCarthy (4); Steven Zalewski (3).
  • 2010-11: Logan Couture (79 games); John McCarthy (37); Benn Ferriero (33); Justin Braun (28); Andrew Desjardins (17); Brandon Mishinter (13); Frazer McLaren (9); Mike Moore (6); Tommy Wingels (5).
  • 2011-12: Andrew Desjardins (76 games); Tommy Wingels (33); Thomas Greiss (19)
  • 2012-13: Matt Irwin (38 games)
  • 2013-14: Matt Nieto (66 games); Tomas Hertl (37); Eriah Hayes (15); Freddie Hamilton (11)
  • 2014-15: Barclay Goodrow (60 games); Melker Karlsson (53); Chris Tierney (53); Mirco Mueller (39); Matt Tennyson (27).
  • 2015-16: Darnell Nurse (69 games); Iiro Pakarinen (63); Brandon Davidson (51); Connor McDavid (45); Griffin Reinhart (29); Adam Clendening (20); Jordan Oesterle (17); Jujhar Khaira (15); Anton Slepyshev (11).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the show, beginning at 10 on TSN1260:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Best defensive options for Edmonton, the importance of starting as you mean to go.
  • Mick Hatten, St. Cloud Times. Patrick Russell is a new Oiler hire, what do we know about him?
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Blue Jays pitching is impacting the team, the bullpen needs addressing. Where does Toronto go from here?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The Sharks are through and a massive Game 7 awaits us tonight.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you soon!

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145 Responses to "START AS YOU MEAN TO GO"

  1. OilClog says:

    I’ll be in the minority on this, but I’d love me a season of Chara.

    Even if it’s just one, for the young players on this team it would serve purpose.

    Chara ragdolling a Flame or two will be glory to behold.

    The trade is coming.

  2. Lowetide says:

    OilClog:
    I’ll be in the minority on this, but I’d love me a season of Chara.

    Even if it’s just one, for the young players on this team it would serve purpose.

    Chara ragdolling a Flame or two will be glory to behold.

    The trade is coming.

    Cap hit of $6.9 for two seasons has me saying no. Love the player, though.

  3. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! Nice to see a D transaction at this point. Seems like there is a lot of potential with the Rangers: Yandle? Girardi for a few years?

    http://nypost.com/2016/05/25/you-might-not-recognize-anyone-on-the-rangers-next-season/

    – It’s much easier to get a NHL top-6 D if you aren’t focused on getting 2 RHD’s at all cost…

    Sek-Yandle
    Klef- better than fayne
    Davidson – Fayne
    Gryba

  4. Truth says:

    Lowetide: Cap hit of $6.9 for two seasons has me saying no. Love the player, though.

    You’d have to think they would be retaining a considerable portion of that if they wanted to get any sort of value in a trade, no?

    I’d take Marchand too. At the right price only, as you mention. The optimist in me says this may be possible with Don Sweeney at the helm.

    I believe there would be value to the Oilers in acquiring a Stanley Cup winning veteran like Chara for a couple of years. Unlike Ference, whomever they acquire (if they acquire anyone at all) must be a regular in the lineup for the duration of their contract.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    I really hope the Sharks take it all this year. Thornton deserves a cup. One of the better players to ever play the game is still considered a failure by a fair percentage of the east coast. I would feel bad for McLellan but thats life. Teams don’t start playing that way overnight and I would give Todd some credit for the way they are playing. The team is deeper, healthier and faster then prior versions and they have better goaltending.

    As for the World cup of hockey I wish they would put in the Stanley Cup Champ as one of the teams. I cant imagine too many people buying Go Team Generic Europe jerseys.

  6. OF17 says:

    Definitely wouldn’t mind 2 years of Chara or Campbell. Effective players with long track records of being effective players. It would also be the first time the Oilers had a D that could really show the youngsters the ropes since Souray. Maybe since Pronger.

    I think Davidson in particular would benefit. Seems to have the best mind for the game on our D corps, and when you’ve got a smart player learning from smart players with more experience, that’s a good thing.

    Also, LT, I don’t think Wingels plays center. He’s never regularly taken faceoffs in his career, which isn’t a perfect metric, but it does point to him being a winger. Would still love the looks of a Pouliot-Nuge-Wingels line.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Dan Girardi needs a change of scenery. I think Vancouver would be perfect for him.

  8. OF17 says:

    leadfarmer,

    Yeah, I’m pulling for the Sharks. Thornton winning would be great, and Pavelski might be the most underrated player in the entire league. Love that guy. Not only do the Sharks play extremely appealing hockey, but they have some great personalities. Would be a story for the ages. Team struggles for a decade to evict its demons and in one of their last kicks at the can does it. I’d like that very much.

  9. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Count me in as a guy willing to see 2 years of Chara, so long as we bring in one of the other (better) pieces likewise available. I’d be more excited if it was 1 year instead of 2, but with a low salary in that last year I think he would be an easy mark for a salary dump (believe it’s only $3 million in real money for that last year).

    He’s not the ideal acquisition, but I could see us doing a lot worse.

    ** as always this is entirely cost dependant. My assumption is that this is a salary dump for Boston so the cost isn’t massive. Musil and a 2nd or 3rd, etc… maybe Lander or Pak.

  10. dustrock says:

    Girardi fell off a cliff and died on impact.

    I too love Chara, and a decade ago is a little strong LT, I’d say even 2 years ago he was still close to elite. But not now, not for this team, with this cap.

    Re McLellan – the Sharks have been my #2 team since forever (25 years I guess, wow). He was their best coach. He set up the way they play, including the powerplay and the forecheck.

    Every single stinking year I was mad at Doug Wilson, for either letting pretty good defencemen go (Brian Campbell, Christian Ehrhoff, Matt Carle), or not replacing them (Brent Burns was an absolute wrecking ball with Big Joe and Little Joe, but then the D corps was thin).

    I still don’t really get the Demers for Dilon trade, I wonder whether that was at Wilson’s or McLellan’s request, as they weren’t always on the same page.

    The Sharks made the Conference Finals twice with McLellan, and lost to (1) the Hawks with maybe the most stacked team since the 80s Oilers (Ladd, Big Buff, Bolland, etc) and (2) The Vancouver Canucks, who were the President’s Trophy winners and probably should have beat the nasty Bruins.

    They lost to the Kings 2 years ago when Vlasic got hurt (and oh hey, they didn’t have great defensive depth??? You don’t say!) and Niemi couldn’t make a big save if his life depended on it.

    And though I don’t have any analytics to back it up, it was often the goaltending that seemed to be the downfall of the Sharks. Nabokov was a warrior, but he wasn’t elite, and he never seemed to get hot at playoff time. Ditto Toskala, etc. Niemi was serviceable but I could have played goal for that first Cup winning Hawks team.

    Now they get Ward, Donskoi is revealed as a great addition, and particularly Jones and Martin. Jones made the big saves. You can tell the team was tougher mentally because of it.

    DeBoer looks like a genius now, for basically keeping things the same and getting the bounces. Let’s recall he went to the Cup with the Devils, lost, and was fired soon after.

    *****END RANT*****

    The tl;dr version is; just like Joe Thornton was a great player and worked hard before this season, McLellan was a great coach and his absence is not the reason the Sharks won.

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    OilClog,

    – If Chara can still be effective (I have no clue if that is still the case), I’d think hard about him as well. Its only 2 years: According to spotrac, he is only a $4MM cap hit in 2nd year…:

    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/boston-bruins/zdeno-chara/

    – Get away from thinking we need 2 long-term 5x6MM RHD’s and move towards this thinking:
    1) Vet who still has game for 2 years (Campbell, Chara, etc) or 1 year away from UFA: Yandle
    2) One of the favourite RHD’s: Barrie, Shattenkirk, Demers…

    This is realistic and prudent, allows for some of Nurse, Davidson Griff to not be completly blocked.

    – So one RHD long-term Sek signing, and one shorter-term over pay, LD/RD doesn’t matter

    – We aren’t gearing up for Stanley Cup. Making the playoffs would be a hurculean task based on where we are and precedent.

    – Having a top-4 real D is far more important that RH/LH optimization (and is more flexible)

  12. Rondo says:

    Arguably the West this year is much weaker than previous years for the elite teams.

  13. PUCKSTOPSHERE says:

    id love to see backes here !! third line center plays with gritty and emotion has played in the west !!
    if the hawks would eat 1million of seabrook is it a bad deal gives them cap relieve ??

  14. OF17 says:

    (These trades haven’t happened)

    I can see it now:

    “Vancouver trades Alex Burrows and a 2017 2nd to New York for Dan Girardi and a 2017 5th.”
    “Vancouver trades Chris Tanev and a 2018 2nd to Columbus for Jack Johnson and a 2018 5th.”

    And then, of course,

    “Columbus trades David Savard to Edmonton for Darnell Nurse.”

  15. GCW_69 says:

    I love a lot of this post except the bit about preseason. One thing Oilers fans should know by now is that preseason is generally a lie.

    The Oilers need to enter the season where the competition for the top nine forward and top four defenders is between proven players with miles left to go on the odometer meter, not maybes and has beens and they can’t let themselves be dazzled by preseason performances against suspect competition in games that don’t matter.

  16. Melman says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I think everyone would prefer 2013 (or earlier) Z, but one of the assets the Oilers have is cap space and 2 years lines up with 97’s ELC. Demers will have a long line of suitors and won’t come cheap. If Chia comes away with Vatanen and Z as adds to the D without giving too much away, that’s an improvement. Would Faulk and Demers be better? Sure, but at what cost and you have zero certainty you can sign Demers.

  17. stephen sheps says:

    If Marchand was a RW instead of a lefty, I would love him on the Oilers. At 28 he’s still in the middle of his prime and I was even more impressed with his versatility and speed at the World’s. Looked great in limited time playing with McDavid, too… but that’s beside the point.

    RE: McLellan, even Pete DeBoer has gone on record stating how the core of the team was really well coached and that it was the new players and depth that helped to get the Sharks over the hump.

    “For the past nine months, Peter DeBoer, who is completing his first season as the San Jose coach, has tried to distance his locker room from the franchise’s past. The Game 7 performance enabled him to reinforce his point that this team would write its own story.

    “That’s genuine, that’s from our group,” DeBoer said. “We’ve got a whole bunch of new bodies and a whole different cast of characters and a whole different identity in my mind and a whole different coaching staff. The core guys are still the same, but the core guys here are great. They have great habits, they’ve been well coached for a decade by the previous staff that was here. They’re not the problem.”

    The problem, DeBoer continued, “was filling in behind them, and we’ve got those types of people here now, and I think the guys at the top feel that and are feeding on it.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/14/sports/hockey/retooled-san-jose-sharks-move-on-and-away-from-past-failures.html

    It must be bittersweet for Todd and his staff today – obviously they must be a little bummed out, but at the same time proud of themselves and the work they did in San Jose, building a consistently excellent program over almost a decade. They must also be thrilled for players like both Joes, Burns and Marleau for finally getting this opportunity. Sure they’re not behind the bench, but Todd and his staff are connected to the sharks, and instead of suggesting the Oilers bought a lemon, (which is still better than being ‘sold a bill of goods’), the Oilers have a very solid coaching staff. Unfortunately it is a team that is still full of holes. Even the best coaches in the world wouldn’t be able to overcome that particular obstacle in a single season.

  18. Fog of Warts says:

    We have a pretty good available model—a good place to start thinking seriously—for what it’s like after you die: that the afterlife is pretty much the same as the aforelife, the state of your immortal soul before you were born. I like my infinities symmetric. Always have, always will.

    Even at age nine, I couldn’t take anyone altogether seriously who talked about the afterlife as some kind of pressing metaphysical problem (or practical reality) who never even mentioned the aforelife. This sloppy intellectual posture always struck me as a form of special metaphysical pleading.

    Logically—by which I mean a kind of naive logic unmarred by the hot knife of random definition—all the same mysteries, challenges, and unknowabilities accrue to the aforelife as to the afterlife.

    It’s just so easy to smuggle one’s premises into the system with a loud click if you’re not alert. Why was this my first sentient thought about adult affairs, at such a young age? I have no idea.

    And I’m sticking with it.

    So there. That’s my aforitarian diatribe, for what it’s worth.

  19. Caramel Batman says:

    The disconnect between the mainstream view of Gudbranson and his actual mediocrity is stunning.

    Proof positive you don’t have to give up something to get something. It’s not true. Indeed, it is a surefire way to spin your wheels, at best, and to wreck your team, at worse.

    Last year, Chiarelli played the fool and trade for Gudbranson. The Oilers wasted assets they couldn’t afford to waste, putting themselves back a year.

    Chiarelli can’t break even this summer. He has to rob someone blind. In life, breaking even isn’t so bad. In the NHL if you are breaking even you are losing.

    The good news is the Canucks are run by absolute morons. The bad news is the Oilers are treading water.

    Meanwhile the Leafs are poised to add Mathews, Nylander, and Marner in one offseason. That’s going to be a fun team to watch.

    Finally,

  20. Younger Oil says:

    DRAFT SPAM AHEAD

    I know I posted this yesterday, sorry for posting it again, just wanted to make sure everyone could see it because I spent a lot of time on it and there is some neat data in here (in my opinion at least). I won’t post it again if there is no interest today.

    Seeing how people are using Dubois’ Primary EV PPG as one of the reasons to put Dubois over Tkachuk (which I believe is valid), I decided rank the entirety of the CHL forwards by that metric, and then compare them to both LT’s rankings and Central Scouting rankings. A few notes:

    -I decided not to include the overagers to make the data easier to analyze.
    -I made 0.4 EV Primary PPG the cutoff for my analysis, but added in players that were on LT’s or Central Scouting lists.
    -I eliminated any players with very small sample sizes (1 point in 2 games for example)

    All in all, there were 40 forwards in the CHL who met these specifications, and they are listed below. There were 38 first year eligible CHL forwards on LT’s most recent list, and I took from the Top 150 NA skaters on Central Scouting’s list, 53 of which were first year eligible CHL forwards.

    RANK —– NAME — EV Primary PPG —-LT’S Rank —— Central Scouting Rank

    1. Pierre Luc Dubois (0.855), LT 1, CS 1.
    2. Alex DeBrincat (0.833), LT 5, CS 8.
    3. Adam Mascherin (0.754), LT 9, CS 22.
    4. Julien Gauthier (0.741), LT 10, CS 5
    5. Vitalii Abramov (0.73), LT 6, CS 13
    6. Taylor Raddysh (0.657), LT 13, CS 19
    7. Matthew Tkachuk (0.649), LT 2, CS 2
    8. Kyle Maksimovic (0.603), LT 20, CS 43
    9. Pascal Leberge (0.589), LT 8, CS 12
    10. Dillon Dube (0.585), LT 18, CS 21
    11. Alex Nylander (0.579), LT 3, CS 3
    12. Tyler Benson (0.567), LT 16, CS 10
    13. Logan Brown (0.559) LT 4, CS 4
    14. Brandon Gignac (0.552) LT 28, CS 42
    15. Will Bitten (0.552), LT 12, CS 23
    16. Boris Katchouk (0.54) LT 26, CS 11
    17. Maxime Fortier (0.529), LT 15, CS 54
    18. Michael McLeod (0.526) LT 7, CS 6
    19. Dante Hannoun (0.521), LT NR, CS NR
    T20. Logan DeNoble (0.508), LT NR, CS NR
    T20. Max Jones (0.508), LT 7, CS 6
    T20. Jordan Kyrou (0.508), LT 22, CS 17

    I’ll stop there for now, but here are a few of interest:

    30. Nathan Bastian (0.453), LT 11, CS 18
    34. Jack Kopacka (0.418), LT NR, CS 16
    39. Sam Steel (0.403), LT 19, CS 14
    NR. Vladimir Kuznetsov (0.397), LT 17, CS 27
    NR. Brett Howden (0.397), LT 23, CS 9

    TLDR:

    -Dubois is a beast. There is a reason he is ranked #1.
    -Tkachuk, Nylander, and Brown do not hold up as well by this metric. Dubois is head and shoulders above them. Tkachuk specifically had TONS of secondary assists. Really puts into perspective how much his numbers could be inflated due to the quality of his teammates. Very nervous about hearing the Oilers have lots of interest in him.
    -Liked LT’s reasoning of taking Bastian 32nd, but he does not hold up too well here. Mascherin, Raddysh or Benson would be my pick.
    -Does anyone know who Raddysh and Maksimovic were on a line with for the Otters? Tough to tell if Strome or Debrincat are inflating their numbers.
    -Keep an eye out for Gignac and DeNoble, they are candidates for the late round steal of the draft.

  21. Richard S.S. says:

    Ideally the Oilers will keep one of Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a Center to join Connor McDavid as the top two Centers. The other will be traded depending on demand. We the Fan may not like it, but I do not see any other way to acquire the caliber of Defense the Oilers need.

    The Oilers should acquire a good right-shot third-line Center who can occasionally play up when needed. Mark Letestu is good on PP and PK, but should never be more than a fourth-line Center when playing at even strength.

    Depending on who is traded, the Oilers will need possibly two right-shot Wingers to play the top two lines or be on 2nd and 3rd lines. If they can play up when needed, that would be well.

    In case you were wondering this is over and above needing 1 or 2 or 3 top rank Defense. I would be shocked, but it’s possibly as many as 10 Oilers will be moved this Offseason.

  22. leadfarmer says:

    OF17:
    leadfarmer,

    Yeah, I’m pulling for the Sharks. Thornton winning would be great, and Pavelski might be the most underrated player in the entire league. Love that guy. Not only do the Sharks play extremely appealing hockey, but they have some great personalities. Would be a story for the ages. Team struggles for a decade to evict its demons and in one of their last kicks at the can does it. I’d like that very much.

    Stevens Point High School in Wisconsin is 30 miles from my house. Hope he brings the cup home. That +105 in the HDSC battle and 108 in the individual high danger scoring chance are pretty fantastic numbers

  23. Caramel Batman says:

    Finally, San Jose was supposed to be the team left in the playoffs that won without three scoring lines. Well, that’s not true. Yesterday they won because Joel Ward, who plays on their third line, scored two goals. Ward scored 21 goals this year, and six in the playoffs.

    If you don’t have three scoring lines you have no chance. None. It isn’t unicorns, it is what separates good teams from everyone else.

    The Oilers need to add at least one scoring winger (or have Yakupov magically transform into one) along with two RHD.

  24. Caramel Batman says:

    Richard S.S.,

    It’s funny that you posted this right before my comment on three scoring lines. Your plan won’t work. You need three lines and there is no way to have three lines without Hopkins and Draisatl.

    Instead sign Demers.
    Trade Pouliot + for Vatanen.
    Sign at least two veteran wingers who can score a little. Not the top end guys, it will be a buyers market.
    Keep your draft picks. You win with contributions from young players.

    You can’t deal Hopkins or Draisatl without getting Subban back. Otherwise you are the Canucks of the deal.

  25. hags9k says:

    That the World Cup of Hockey should not be the priority for any executive or coach?

    Or player.

  26. stevezie says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Agreed. Tops teams can afford to deal for “mix” or whatever, because they have enought talent/depthto win but maybe haven’t optimised it. Coffee for Shanahan is always my go to example, but recently Oshie for Brower qualifies.

    The Oilers don’t have enough talent or depth. The need a couple of exceptional drafts or a couple of exceptional UFA signings or to win a few trades. Really win.

    It’s genius time, basically.

  27. Caramel Batman says:

    San Jose had seven players scored at a 1.5/60 rate or above.

    The entire first line: Thornton, Pavelski, Hertl
    2/3 of second line: Couture and Donskoi (but not Marleau who is an even strength passenger)
    2/3 of third line: Karlsson and Ward

    The Oilers have five guys who scored at first line rates (McDavid, Hall, Draisatl, Eberle, and Pouliot)

    That’s how good Hall and McDavid are, since no one really thinks Draisatl and Pouliot are first line talents.

    The problem is that after Purcell was traded who put up decent numbers that is their entire even strength offense. The problem isn’t the top end guys, it is everyone else.

    So the Oilers need to add forwards and get a bounce back year from Hopkins and Yakupov if he is still around. You can’t win with five forwards who can score at even strength. You need at least seven.

  28. hags9k says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I am not for trading one of 29 or 93, but one way it works would be for Dubois to be the goods, right out of the box, and play 3C.

  29. russ99 says:

    That Chiarelli quote to me is the best evidence as why Howson and MacTavish should be fired.

    Favoritism is counter to quality scouting.

  30. russ99 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Finally, San Jose was supposed to be the team left in the playoffs that won without three scoring lines.Well, that’s not true.Yesterday they won because Joel Ward, who plays on their third line, scored two goals.Ward scored 21 goals this year, and six in the playoffs.

    If you don’t have three scoring lines you have no chance.None.It isn’t unicorns, it is what separates good teams from everyone else.

    The Oilers need to add at least one scoring winger (or have Yakupov magically transform into one) along with two RHD.

    Three scoring lines is very different from two scoring lines and a checking line that’s actually 2-way and can chip in offense.

    Would a third line of a Pisani-type good 2-way winger, RNH and Kassian be a “unicorn” line? I don’t think so.

    My vehement opposition to the idea of unicorns is the flavor where we eschew defensive forwards entirely and run 6 one-way skill forwards like its the 80s all over again.

  31. hags9k says:

    Younger Oil,

    Thanks for that info! I have been for PLD for awhile now, this primary point data just strengthens the argument. There’s just something about the London Knights that has me spooked. That team is the CHL headquarters for zooming.

  32. kinger_OIL says:

    Younger Oil,

    – This is good stuff: maybe the play for the Oil is to wait untill they pick and see if there is a trade?

    – Maybe Tchachuk gets taken 3rd? If MTL really wants Dubois (I think he’s a great fit there), they do a deal with the Oil

    – Either would be good picks for the Oil, if they weren’t in year-10 of the rebuild, and either look to be better than Yak. That’s luck of the draw

    – Choosing between another high draft pick that is going to make an impact in a few years in the NHL, vs trading that asset + for immediate improvement, that’s the rub.

    – Or if you draft Dubois because you think he’s going to be better than Drai or RNH, or you can get more in a trade for RNH or Drai: then you make a trade.

    – So I’m not in the “trade down at all costs”, rather if you draft at 4, then you are trading more of the core to get better roster balance.

  33. stevezie says:

    Caramel Batman,

    The road would be too convoluted to go into specifics, but the arrival of the right rhC would make it possible to move Nuge or Drai and still have 3 scoring lines.

    Ideally the rhC comes and we see Drai on rw, but we’ll see.

  34. Caramel Batman says:

    russ99,

    Who is eschewing “two way” types? All I’m saying is that if you can’t score you can’t play. Teams should select on the offensive variable. You can’t get points without reading the play, without being able to skate, without making and taking a pass. That’s 90% of the game.

  35. kinger_OIL says:

    Caramel Batman,

    – No 3 sets of LHD/RHD is ne plus ultra

    – That’s apparently the sine qua non condition. All the stuff about skate, passing, D’ering …

    – I’ve run out of Latin expressions

    Ad Mare usque Ad Mare

  36. godot10 says:

    dustrock:

    I still don’t really get the Demers for Dilon trade, I wonder whether that was at Wilson’s or McLellan’s request, as they weren’t always on the same page.

    Wilson had to trade Demers to force McLellan to play Burns on defense. Wilson might be able to control the roster, but he can’t control where the coach plays the players. So he was forced to trade Demers to give McLellan no alternative option to Burns on the blueline.

  37. godot10 says:

    PUCKSTOPSHERE:
    id love to see backes here !! third line center plays with gritty and emotionhas played in the west !!
    if the hawks would eat 1million of seabrook is it a bad deal gives them cap relieve ??

    Both guys are on the wrong side of 30, and will have too much term. Seabrook has 8 years. The last 4 years of that contract are franchise killing. But the Hawks probably figure to be rebuilding then. The Hawks have a 4-year window.

    The Oilers will be in the middle of the peak McDavid years. Seabrook would be insanity.

  38. magneto says:

    Nurse+4ov+3rd round
    Ceci+Lazar+12ov

    Hall-RNH-Draisaitl
    Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Lazar- UFA VET (Stemp/PAP)
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
    Pakarinen Lander

    Klefbom-Demers
    Sekera-Ceci
    Davidson-Fayne
    Pardy or Gryba

  39. Richard S.S. says:

    So San Jose fires Todd McLellan, then acquires a #1 Goaltender. Then they fill a few holes with a good 2nd/3rd-line RSW, a good 4-6 D and bring up a good young 2nd-4th-line RSW. Edmonton still has at least three times as much to do just to get that good, and someone is blaming it on the Coach, again.

  40. stevezie says:

    PUCKSTOPSHERE: id love to see backes here !! t

    Me too, but i have a hard time imagining his caphit and length matching us. Or that he would choose us.

    Hard time seeing how we get him and the D we need too. But in abstraction? He’s perfect.

    Makes more sense to get weird for him than Lucic, for what that’s worth.

  41. Магия 10 says:

    godot10: Wilson had to trade Demers to force McLellan to play Burns on defense. Wilson might be able to control the roster, but he can’t control where the coach plays the players.So he was forced to trade Demers to give McLellan no alternative option to Burns on the blueline.

    or everyone agreed they needed to move out a good D to get the F depth to get over the hump. balance. it’s a top 9 league now.

  42. Ray says:

    Lowetide: Cap hit of $6.9 for two seasons has me saying no. Love the player, though.

    http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2010/10/11/1741054/analysis-of-the-zdeno-chara-contract

    Chara’s is only a 6.9 cap hit next year then it falls to 4 million in the last year of his deal because he’s over 40.

  43. kinger_OIL says:

    Ray,

    – Yes I posted same. If he is still effective, $4MM isn’t that bad. Some D can be effective in 40’s…:

    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/boston-bruins/zdeno-chara/

    – Doubt Boston deals with us though….

  44. McSorley33 says:

    I am shocked at the price Vancouver has paid for Gudbranson….

    Wow.

  45. godot10 says:

    hags9k:
    Caramel Batman,

    I am not for trading one of 29 or 93, but one way it works would be for Dubois to be the goods, right out of the box, and play 3C.

    If the Oilers draft Dubois (or that left shot “Jason Allison” from London), they should send the player back to junior for one more year.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Someone call General Fanager!

    http://www.generalfanager.com/players/213

  47. McSorley33 says:

    Strange….similar to what happened to PC last summer,apparently Jim Bennings phone will not stop ringing.

  48. Spartacus says:

    Start as you mean to go is a fine piece of advice and has become a bit of a mantra for me when I would prefer to avoid difficult conversations with my contractors.

    I manage bridge construction projects in the NWT, and keeping the contractors in line right off the bat is the best way to avoid a project spiralling out of control.

    I had thought that was a quote from your Dad, LT, but I see I owe my thanks to Mrs LT.

    I was a bit upset to see that the Canucks picked up a big RH defenceman until I read Pronman’s take on the trade. Gudbranson is big, but seems to be rated as a 4th or 5th D.

  49. Fog of Warts says:

    I finished the Goldman book just now. Had all of twenty pages left, can put it on the “done” pile.

    I haven’t said this in so many words, but I’ve had to take a mental break from thinking about the Chia sausage machine and our looming RHD machinations.

    So far as I can see, the entirety of what we think we know about Chia, he might have blown off in one breath. What he did with the Bruins—how much of it was a function of time and place, how much a function of a fixed template that keeps on templating? Does he even view today’s league as being the same the one that brung ya (his cup)—yes, of course, most of us get sticky over success—or does he reapply “horses for courses” after every 0.1°C of additional planetary warming? We just don’t know.

    This is why I always had a soft spot for intelligent, yet tragically flawed figures who blurt things out into live microphones (Lowe, MacT, Eakins).

    I wrote yesterday about how quickly the aura of intelligence dissipates once you step on the yard rake. But truthfully, those are all intelligent men, exposed polkadot underpants notwithstanding.

    Of our prominent public figures, we tend to trade in our definition of intelligence for this other thing, the standard becomes the possession of a bomb-proof cunning instinct. Those who have this almost universally approach a live microphone as yet another tool to influence the world in some cunning way, of seeming to offer something up, while taking no real risk at all.

    The hallmark of people who too easily fall under this spell is the “if only” meme. “If only Hitler had continued to develop this or that super weapon, already 80% completed.” We’ve all heard that one before, haven’t we?

    The problem with Hitler, cunning as he was, is that became surrounded by people who understood this about him, and played the requisite part (to do otherwise was to display a form of courage rare in this world). Necessarily a man surrounded by such men begins to lose calibration on his own organization. If you can’t fund all the research programs, and the ranks of command are cunning (or cunning coddlers) all the way down, what can you do? The discussion you need to have is just not going to happen. If that weren’t the Achilles heel of fascism, some version of it might almost be a viable way to order human affairs (emphasis on “viable”, as practiced at various junctures in human history by the Dutch, the Spanish, the British, the Japanese, oh dear this list goes on and on).

    So, yes, many of these “revered” figures are three parts fragile mystique, by chance and circumstance too late exposed.

    Then again you have your Bismarcks and your Greenspans. But if the King of Cunning himself was not found fragile over his long career, the mess bequeathed was awe inspiring. All things must eventually pass back into the slippery paws of sloppy simulacrums. (Fun fact: Greenspan’s wan likeness looks right at home in the wax museum between Bismarck and Kissinger, but if you look closely, Bismarck’s has a wick between his teeth, Greenspan’s has a wick where his hair won’t grow, and Kissinger’s has an inflammable wick in his knickers—wicks being flammable by definition, the exaggerated spelling on the museum placard invites the cocking of noggins).

    In any case, the upshot is that I’d far rather sweat the details when tragic blurters take center stage.

    So I’m taking a rain check at the end of the tenth inning (it’s conventional to stop counting at ten, isn’t it?) to visit a different sausage machine, the Hollywood sausage machine.

    Here’s Goldman yet again, this time on When Harry Met Sally.

    And, alas, no, men cannot tell. Sorry, guys, no matter how magnificent our studliness, we cannot tell. The only change in a woman is this: there is a slight rise in the temperature of the roof of her mouth. (Who else but me and Suzy tell you these things?) And if you can figure out how to measure that, I don’t know what it is you’re interested in, but it sure isn’t sex.

    Well, if you believe Goldman here, you probably believed my claim yesterday that the seat belt retractors in some German cars cost more than the air-bags. While I’m not saying they don’t—weirder things in this world have been true—everything that followed in that paragraph—a fantasy meditation on the perils of cognitive burden within the larger theme of trusting your “friends”—amounted to a red herring blue ribbon.

    Stephen Colbert: In the song “Cecilia” — it’s a shocking song. You say “making love in the afternoon with Cecilia up in my bedroom. I got up to wash my face, when I come back to bed someone’s taken my place.” First of all, I don’t need a folk song about freaky three-ways. Second of all, sir, why would you need to wash your face?

    Paul Simon: Well, it’s the ’60s, so I can’t remember.

    Once you resolve these anatomical conundrums, Goldman’s claim becomes a bit more plausible. But sorry, Horatio. There are more tells upon moving heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy. Small things, usually of a tactile nature.

    Once the performance becomes too smooth, I lose interest.

  50. OF17 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    russ99,

    Who is eschewing “two way” types?All I’m saying is that if you can’t score you can’t play.Teams should select on the offensive variable.You can’t get points without reading the play, without being able to skate, without making and taking a pass.That’s 90% of the game.

    Agreed. No one who wants 3 scoring lines wants 3 of Drouin-Gagner-Yakupov. I’ve yet to see that proposed. We want Marchand-Bergeron, Krejci-Eriksson, Steen-Backes. Every GM building 3 scoring lines seems to want the same too. So I’m not sure where this notion that we’re pining for the 80s comes from.

  51. OF17 says:

    Fog of Warts,

    I don’t want to sound like a dink, but if you space your thoughts out more it’s much easier to have a conversation. When you have Hitler, When Harry Met Sally, Stephen Colbert, Goldman, Bismark, and all sorts of things going on without a clear connection to hockey, it feels more scatterbrained than worldly.

    Again, not trying to be a dink. Just want to make it more effective for you to join in.

  52. Walter Sobchak says:

    Well, I know a lot of talk on D-men here but I still think the Oilers balance is the biggest problem.

    It all needs to be fixed.

    This won’t be popular for sure.

    I would still make the Pouliot & Yakupov for Vatanen as was reported ( not sure why it didn’t go down,injury?)

    I would offer sheet Kreider (He can play all three positions)

    I would trade Draisaitl for Faulk ( Lowetide often speaks of Sam Pollock, I think it’s right here with 29)

    That should take care of the D-issue

    Draft PLD

    Could the Oilers then take legitimate run at Simmonds? Eberle +?

    I would leave Backes alone and find out what Jenner would take instead.

    Maybe all pie in the sky stuff, but I don’t think the Oilers are in a bad position at all. PC could have this team fixed by July 2nd.

  53. TheOtherJohn says:

    Could we trade Griffin Reinhart to Florida for their 1st and their recently acquired 33 Ov from Vancouver?

  54. G Money says:

    I just posted yet more information on the whole D handedness issue in the previous thread.

    It’s going to seem like I’m obsessed with the topic, but it’s less that than it is the fact that I’m just astonished at people continuing to ignore and contradict a substantial mountain of evidence on handedness and simply declare it doesn’t matter.

    With zero evidence. Contradictory to the evidence in fact. Just pure opinion, based on literally nothing.

    “Just get a Top 4 D, handedness doesn’t matter”.

    Jeezus Freaking Keerist.

    It matters a hell of a lot. Unless you can find the extremely rare Top 4 D who can effectively play off side, a Top 4 D playing on the wrong hand is so compromised as a result, it is basically the same as adding yet another third pairing D. That’s how big a deal handedness is.

    Evidence?

    Assuming the Oiler depth chart on the left remains Sekera-Klefbom-Davidson (or K-S-D, whatever), here is how those players did in hand/off hand pairings (min 3000s of EV TOI):

    Sekera with a rightie: 50.6%
    Sekera with a fellow leftie: 44.7%

    Klefbom with a rightie: 51.8%
    Klefbom with a fellow leftie: 46.3%

    Davidson with a rightie: 53.4%
    Davidson with a fellow leftie: 50.0%

    Lefties (i.e partners for the above three) in this sample include Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson, Oesterle, and Nurse. Righties in the sample are Fayne, Schultz, and Gryba – hardly a killers row.

    There are confounding effects of course, including QoC – but it’s also a fact that much of that washes away with this particular group.

    You are left with one indelible fact: all of our lefties play MUCH better in a L/R pairing than they do in a L/L pairing. The only one that seems like he might be credible in a L/L pairing is Davidson, and I suspect in that case it does have a lot to do with QoC.

    But even then, his two best partners by far are the two righties, Gryba (53.3%) and Schultz (53.6%).

    While the evidence for handedness across the league has its exceptions, the evidence pointing this out on the Oilers is so strong, it leaves little room for equivocation.

    If Chia isn’t going balls to the wall to find competent top 4 RHD, he isn’t doing his job. Because it matters. It matters a great deal.

  55. Frank the dog says:

    This reminds me of Tony Dungy and John Gruden with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tony Dungy took them from nowhere to a contending team, but the ownership ran out of patience and hired Jon “Chuckie” Gruden, who won them a Super bowl against his former team, the Oakland Raiders. Dungy went on to win with Indianapolis and Peyton Manning, but Jon could never repeat. Put simply he won with Tony’s team playing against his own prior team.
    Put simply, you can usually expect a dead cat bounce from a new coach on a well built team before he regresses to his norm.
    I see San Jose’s success in the first year of his successor more of a tribute to what TMac built than a poor reflection on him. DeBoer did not have to fix much, he tweaked a few pieces and it took him all the way. Just like in New Jersey.

  56. stephen sheps says:

    OF17:
    Fog of Warts,

    I don’t want to sound like a dink, but if you space your thoughts out more it’s much easier to have a conversation. When you have Hitler, When Harry Met Sally, Stephen Colbert, Goldman, Bismark, and all sorts of things going on without a clear connection to hockey, it feels more scatterbrained than worldly.

    Again, not trying to be a dink. Just want to make it more effective for you to join in.

    I know you’re not trying to be a dink, and my apologies for over-stepping or intervening but Fog’s long, unpredictable and brilliant narratives are a part of the very essence of this place, and it’s been that way for years and years. If you’re not into the giant walls of text, perhaps skip on through.

    This is his unique and incredible way of engaging with us and is plenty effective. Asking him to change would be akin to asking Hunter to not be a lunatic, ‘Steve Smith’ to become serious all the time, Ricki to learn better grammar (we’ve tried, it didn’t go over well, he is after all a real live bear) or Lowetide himself to take 3 weeks off.

    Fog, or DMW as he was once known, is a community treasure.

  57. OF17 says:

    stephen sheps,

    That’s certainly fair. I definitely don’t get to decide how and when people contribute. I just saw a way that in my opinion would make it easier to read and interact and figured I’d share.

  58. CM says:

    Question for the group. How does Gudbranson stack up against Reinhart?

    I see them as similar players, drafted in similar spots. Dealt for a very similar package.

  59. stephen sheps says:

    OF17,

    That too is certainly legit…

    moving on, nothing to see here.

    (far be it from me to be act as some form of ‘minster of socio-cultural preservation’ around these parts – though if that were a thing, I’d happily sign up. community archivist would probably be a lot of fun, too!)

  60. Parsons says:

    The Florida/Vancouver trade yesterday made an idea I had bantering about in my head for a while seem a bit more ‘plausible’.

    Jacob Chychrun’s birthplace always seemed to be a nice marketing tool to use for a Florida team. Perhaps the team would want to acquire him to be a long term asset.

    Like all of you, I believe the Oilers would move their 4th to move to a 7th to 9th position. In the process acquiring the needed defencemen,. Now the idea running through my head was … if Chychrun was available at that position … what about trading that pick to Florida and in exchange receive Florida’s First and Nick Bjugstad. Pick up the large third line centre and most important … right handed shot that people on the boards are hoping for.

    Florida would be able to use Mccann as their third liner … the pick up of Vancouver’s pick at 33 could come into play.

    Another option that I havent seen put out there.

  61. blainer says:

    And now for a different trade angle.

    Trade the 4th and Yak to Montreal for McCarron and the 9th.

    Trade the 9th RNH and Nurse/Reinhart to Carolina for Faulk. Sign Stamkos and Brower.

    Hall Stamkos Drai

    Maroon CMD Eberle

    Pou McCarron Brower

    Khaira Letestu Pak

    Klefbom Faulk

    Sekera Fayne

    Reinhart Davidson

    Errrr … we could just keep the pick and draft PLD of which is also a good plan and sign Demers and trade for Barrie/vatenen for for easier comp and 1st PP duty.

    From all the verbal we seem to be getting from Chia though it sure sounds like he has a plan in place already to trade down in the draft .

    Really like the idea also of the 4th and Yak for McCarron and Juolevi if he is still there at 9th. We get a RT shot center who is 6-6 230 lbs and almost plug and play on an entry level contract plus hopefully the next LH shot version of OEL..

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OilClog:
    I’ll be in the minority on this, but I’d love me a season of Chara.

    Even if it’s just one, for the young players on this team it would serve purpose.

    Chara ragdolling a Flame or two will be glory to behold.

    The trade is coming.

    But he’s a lefty!

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    leadfarmer:
    kinger_OIL,

    Dan Girardi needs a change of scenery.I think Vancouver would be perfect for him.

    Yeah Benning could probably land Girardi for no more than Bo Horvat + a pick.

  64. Professor Q says:

    Frank the dog:
    This reminds me of Tony Dungy and John Gruden with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tony Dungy took them from nowhere to a contending team, but the ownership ran out of patience and hired Jon “Chuckie” Gruden, who won them a Super bowl against his former team, the Oakland Raiders. Dungy went on to win with Indianapolis and Peyton Manning, but Jon could never repeat. Put simply he won with Tony’s team playing against his own prior team.
    Put simply, you can usually expect a dead cat bounce from a new coach on a well built team before he regresses to his norm.
    I see San Jose’s success in the first year of his successor more of a tribute to what TMac built than a poor reflection on him. DeBoer did not have to fix much, he tweaked a few pieces and it took him all the way. Just like in New Jersey.

    Like Pittsburgh ‘s most recent Cup.

  65. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    – G: you are being too dogmatic with your findings and belief in optimal roster and ignoring the actual market and cost for RHD vs LHD. No one disputes LH/RH is optimal, all things being equal.

    – If you paired Klef or Sek with a LHD that is better than Fayne, that combo is more effective.

    – Sek/Fayne is better than Sek/Nurse, because Fayne is a more effective D than Nurse.

    – If you conclude that for instance a D combo of Davidson-Gryba is more effective than a combo of Davidson-Klef, that’s crazy, because Klef is a way better D than Gryba.

    – Sure ideally have RHD/LHD. The marginal cost of acquiring 2 RHD is a major consideration though that you are ignoring.

    – I choose a combo of better top-4D (one RHD), for less total term, than going all-out to get 2 RHD.

    – I gather you wouldn’t rather have 2 years of Campbell, but commit 5 years to Vatenen, who is not as effective a D, and costs a lot of money and term.

    – Hey that’s what makes a market. We disagree. I say get better D and push everyone down, worry about optimization once you have actual NHL D: you value out of the gate LD/RD

    – Our D sucked because they aren’t good. They didn’t suck because we didn’t have 3 RD/LD.

    – The LD/RD is secondary to actually getting D that don’t suck, and the relative cost.

  66. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Wilson had to trade Demers to force McLellan to play Burns on defense. Wilson might be able to control the roster, but he can’t control where the coach plays the players.So he was forced to trade Demers to give McLellan no alternative option to Burns on the blueline.

    Wasn’t Demers traded for another defenceman?

  67. Professor Q says:

    godot10: If the Oilers draft Dubois (or that left shot “Jason Allison” from London), they should send the player back to junior for one more year.

    It would be awesome if Tkatchuk or Dubois pull a Draisaitl next year and really improve drastically and head on to the Memorial Cup.

  68. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I’ll be in the minority on this, but I’d love me a season of Chara.

    Even if it’s just one, for the young players on this team it would serve purpose.

    Chara ragdolling a Flame or two will be glory to behold.

    The trade is coming.

    But he’s a lefty!

    Who would they trade?

  69. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Cmon, this guy is a stud, has the tools to change a game physically. I think you should watch a few games of this guy before you talk rubbish like that bud.

  70. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    blainer:

    Trade the 4th and Yak to Montreal for McCarron and the 9th.

    Trade the 9th RNH and Nurse/Reinhart to Carolina for Faulk.

    9th, RNH and Nurse for Faulk. Damn… I like Faulk plenty, but damn that’s a lot.

  71. slopitch says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yeah Benning could probably land Girardi for no more than Bo Horvat + a pick.

    Schneider, plus a pick for Girardi. Stunning asset mgmt.

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Professor Q: Who would they trade?

    Sorry, the first four paragraphs of that were OilClog’s from the top of the post, it was a coding fail on my part (since fixed). All I added was “but he’s a lefty!”

  73. Richard S.S. says:

    How good is Leon Draisaitl? He had his breakout season last year, so he’s here to stay. Speculation said he had an upper body thingy which had him avoiding contact. Other speculation said he was out of condition/ran out of gas because he played so much other Hickey. He still had a good year. He’s only 20, and this is basically the first year of his career so he will get stronger and gain experience.

    Is Leon Draisaitl a #1 Center? When McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins went on the DL, he was forced to be a #1 Centre and he did extremely well. I firmly believe he’s a #1 Centre now, but as long as he’s on the same Team as McDavid he’ll be a stud #2 Centre for a very long time, or McDavid’s Winger for an equally long time. Anything less is just a waste of talent and that poses a problem.

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a good two-way Centre who fits equally well as a #1 or a #2 Centre on many Teams, including the Oilers. That makes him a huge asset. What he’s not is a #3 Centre, that takes a different mindset. With Leon in his 3rd year of his ELC, he’s going to get expensive very soon. With Connor entering the midpoint of his ELC, he’s also going to get expensive soon. Ryan is on his way to being a luxury the Oilers can’t keep. It’s no longer a question of if they keep him, it’s more about when he’s traded.

  74. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL: – If you paired Klef or Sek with a LHD that is better than Fayne, that combo is more effective.

    – Sek/Fayne is better than Sek/Nurse, because Fayne is a more effective D than Nurse.

    – If you conclude that for instance a D combo of Davidson-Gryba is more effective than a combo of Davidson-Klef, that’s crazy, because Klef is a way better D than Gryba.

    And this is exactly where you are arguing an unsupported unjustified opinion, and directly in the face of the evidence.

    Sek/Fayne is better than Sek/Nurse because Fayne is better than Nurse? Sure. That plays a part, of course it does.

    But Sekera/Fayne was also better than Sek/Klefbom, and Sek/Davidson. Is Fayne better than those guys?

    And Sek/Schultz and Sek/Gryba were both more effective pairings than Sek/Klefbom and Sek/Davidson. Are Schultz and Gryba better players than Klefbom and Davidson?

    If your only explanation for Sek/Fayne being better than Sek/Nurse is ‘because Fayne was better’, please explain the other results. Your explanation cannot coexist with the observed reality.

    As for your Davidson example…

    A D combo of Davidson/Klefbom ran 46.3% (46.5 on the dangers).

    Davidson/Gryba ran 53.3% (54% on the dangers).

    So this is exactly what the evidence is telling us.

    That handedness matters so much, that Davy/Gryba is a more effective pairing than Davy/Klef, even though Klef is a WAY better defenseman than Gryba. THAT’S how much handedness effects D pairings. It actually makes Klefbom a less effective player than Gryba.

    Think on that for a moment if you want to continue to dismiss handedness as a critical factor.

    And the point here is, it’s NOT JUST ONE PAIRING. It is almost all of them. And this holds not only for the Oilers, but almost every team. The exceptions are rare.

    If you think handedness doesn’t matter, you are arguing a falsehood. Again: it matters so much, it makes Klefbom less effective than Gryba.

    And I find this quite amusing: you are being too dogmatic with your findings

    Who is being dogmatic: the one who argues a position because that’s what is indicated by the evidence, or the one who argues directly in the face of it, and won’t be swayed no matter what the evidence actually says?

    Sticking with your position no matter how strong the evidence is to the contrary is pretty close to the definition of dogmatic.

  75. Caramel Batman says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76:
    Caramel Batman,

    Cmon, this guy is a stud, has the tools to change a game physically. I think you should watch a few games of this guy before you talk rubbish like that bud.

    Is this clever satire?

  76. su_dhillon says:

    G Money:
    I just posted yet more information on the whole D handedness issue in the previous thread.

    With zero evidence.Contradictory to the evidence in fact.Just pure opinion, based on literally nothing.

    “Just get a Top 4 D, handedness doesn’t matter”.

    Jeezus Freaking Keerist.

    It matters a hell of a lot.Unless you can find the extremely rare Top 4 D who can effectively play off side, a Top 4 D playing on the wrong hand is so compromised as a result, it is basically the same as adding yet another third pairing D.That’s how big a deal handedness is.

    Evidence?

    Assuming the Oiler depth chart on the left remains Sekera-Klefbom-Davidson (or K-S-D, whatever), here is how those players did in hand/off hand pairings (min 3000s of EV TOI):

    Sekera with a rightie: 50.6%
    Sekera with a fellow leftie: 44.7%

    Klefbom with a rightie: 51.8%
    Klefbom with a fellow leftie: 46.3%

    Davidson with a rightie: 53.4%
    Davidson with a fellow leftie: 50.0%

    Lefties (i.e partners for the above three) in this sample include Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson, Oesterle, and Nurse.Righties in the sample are Fayne, Schultz, and Gryba – hardly a killers row.

    If Chia isn’t going balls to the wall to find competent top 4 RHD, he isn’t doing his job.Because it matters. It matters a great deal.

    Posted this on twitter but whats so interesting about this is that the level of RHD these guys played with was so meh yet the results were significantly better.

    If they can add a couple of bonafide top 4 RHD this team could really make a big jump. Even 1 real top pairing RHD and another to play with Davidson on 3rd pair if you keep Fayne- Sekera together could be enough for major improvement.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    [Chiarelli] “We’ve got some guys we acquired, Griffin Reinhart, who I believe is a terrific player. I think he needs a little time to get up and running before I can anoint him in the top four.

    Interesting to re-read Chiarelli’s actual words after the Reinhart trade with the common paraphrase “Chia said he’d be ready to play top four. #fail”.

    Caramel Batman: Last year, Chiarelli played the fool and trade for Gudbranson. The Oilers wasted assets they couldn’t afford to waste, putting themselves back a year.

    Assuming you meant “Reinhart” where you wrote “Gudbranson”, please explain how did the Oilers set themselves back a year by trading two draft picks who played 0 NHL games for a guy who played 29?

  78. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PUCKSTOPSHERE: id love to see backes here !! third line center plays with gritty and emotion has played in the west !!

    Third line centre, eh. In the four years of his expiring $19 MM pact, Backes ranked 2nd, 1st, 3rd, and 4th among Blues forwards in cap hit for the respective seasons. Over the 4 years combined he was 3rd in overall scoring and 2nd in ATOI. If your sales pitch is “Hey David, do we have a third-line job for you up in Canada” I imagine you would get a quick answer.

  79. G Money says:

    su_dhillon,

    I’m not sure if I’m confusing “I think so too” with “goddamn, finding RHD is tough, so I very much hope this is true” … but I think so too!

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I know I’m a blind optimist on all things Oilers, but I found Reinhart’s run at the end of the season encouraging. Both my eye and my stats indicated ‘legit NHL D man’ for more games than not.

    I doubt very much that top pairing is in the cards, and even Top 4 might not happen, but lots of good in there.

    That Chia expected he’d need to get up and running before anointing him Top 4 indicates that he was much more realistic about the player than he’s made out to be. He needed to get up (improve) and running (show Top 4 chops) before Chia would anoint him Top 4. Which indicates that he did not see it as a certainty.

    And even if you hate the trade, that indication of realism is a good and encouraging thing.

  80. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I suspect you’ve seen @classlicity’s recent tweets?

    I’m really liking that idea of comparing how a player does against his cap hit peers.

    If teams aren’t already using that concept, they’d be fools not to adopt it quick.

  81. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    – You are using WOWY stats with our garbage D.

    – I will go through the D of the semi-finalists and see what their combinations are.

    – Untill then I am out to lunch, carry on!

  82. G Money says:

    For those who haven’t seen those salary cap hit peer charts, here’s an example for Lucic:

    Here's a fun one: Milan Lucic pic.twitter.com/5GsCvwamk2— Carolyn Wilke (@Classlicity) 22 May 2016

    (and an explanation of how to read them: https://deephearthockey.wordpress.com/2016/05/20/how-to-read-the-cap-hit-peer-charts/)

  83. rickithebear says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    [Chiarelli] “We’ve got some guys we acquired, Griffin Reinhart, who I believe is a terrific player. I think he needs a little time to get up and running before I can anoint him in the top four.

    Interesting to re-read Chiarelli’s actual words after the Reinhart trade with the common paraphrase “Chia said he’d be ready to play top four. #fail”.

    Assuming you meant “Reinhart” where you wrote “Gudbranson”, please explain how did the Oilers set themselves back a year by trading two draft picks who played 0 NHL games for a guy who played 29?

    You know Every one of ourtop 3 line needs another passers on it with a NHLE trending of 13 EVG.

  84. stephen sheps says:

    Caramel Batman: Is this clever satire?

    I hope so…

    I can’t really comment much on Gudbranson the NHL player but I do recall being somewhat underwhelmed seeing him in the OHL in Kingston, particularly in his draft +1 season. Yes I know that was his best season offensively, but that’s what one would expect draft +1. He was steady (and based on his size) rather visible on middling Frontenacs teams but not the game-changer his draft position might suggest he could become. I watched him closely in the 2010/2011 season simply because of his draft position, was hoping to be blown away, but he was just fine.

    At this point in his development, truthfully he’s exactly where I thought he would be after his junior career; a perfectly competent 4/5 with decent skating and steady defence with a bit of a MOAR Bigger type edge. Reinhart is tracking along a similar path but with less meanness. And to be honest, that’s ok. For the Canucks, it’s interesting because it doesn’t seem to address a weakness while creating an even larger hole in forward depth.

    Caramel I actually somewhat agree with your take here – this is a bit of a case of pedigree/potential trumping evidence. Certainly P.C. needs to aim higher than this player-type in the offseason if the Oilers are to make a tangible improvement. Hopefully he channels his inner Sather from the 80s and can rob someone blind, as you say.

    What I find most interesting about the trade from Florida’s perspective is the verbal around him, praising the intangibles and giving him a new contract, albeit a 1 year bridge, only to trade him in the same month, not long after an analytics-driven new management team is installed. Curious. Very curious.

  85. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    Sure someone has beaten me to this but…

    II believe Chara is only a $6.9M hit for this upcoming year and, inexplicably (though I recall you discussed this before) is only a $4.0M hit for the following year. The bigger issue might be the NMC that would require his protection through any expansion draft.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/players/213

    The question I would ask back is at what $ price would you take Chara, even at 39 yrs?

    If you were prepared to protect him through the expansion draft, would you deal for Chara if Boston took salary or a bad contract back (*cough* Korpikoski *cough*)?

  86. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Not at all, I guarantee after you watch Gudbanson “Kronwall” our forwards for a few games you will remember me. The guy is a Beast. Not a fan of Vancouver at all but thats the move i wish our GM would have made.

  87. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL:
    G Money,

    – You are using WOWY stats with our garbage D.

    – I will go through the D of the semi-finalists and see what their combinations are.

    – Untill then I am out to lunch, carry on!

    Indeed, for obvious reasons I focus on all things Oiler.

    But I’ve also looked directly at the WOWY handedness data for a number of other teams (WPG, DAL, CHI, CGY, NJD, CAR, STL, ANA, NYI). This is not an Oiler specific thing.

    I think there were more, but those are the only teams for which I still have the data files. You can see there is a distinct bias to teams that might have players in which the Oilers might or were reputed to have interest (WPG/Trouba, DAL/Demers, CHI/Seabrook, NJD/Severson, CAR/Faulk, STL/PieterShat, ANA/Vatanen, NYI/Hamonic … plus the Gordless Red Horde).

    There is also this league-wide look: https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

    Lastly, you can search LT’s threads from a couple of months ago for WheatNOil’s posts, because he’s the guy that dug into this first … he looked at a number of teams (though not sure if the above list is the data I cut for him, that may be the case).

    But kudos to you for chasing down the evidence yourself.

  88. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Gudbranson would have made for a good Oiler as he already has shoulder troubles from a freak Wakeboarding accident a couple of summers ago which caused him significant damage and a long recovery time.

  89. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Paraphrasing (slightly) the Canucks apologist on Oilers Now right now, defending the Gudbranson trade: “This division is brutal, this conference is brutal, so you need brutal players

    (Bolded part mine)

  90. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I suspect you’ve seen @classlicity’s recent tweets?

    I’m really liking that idea of comparing how a player does against his cap hit peers.

    If teams aren’t already using that concept, they’d be fools not to adopt it quick.

    I follow her but haven’t seen those specific tweets. It is, however, damn logical. Have been doing variations on it for some time.

    ADD: Thanks for the links in your comments subsequent to the one I responded to.

  91. G Money says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76:
    Caramel Batman,

    Not at all, I guarantee after you watch Gudbanson “Kronwall”our forwards for a few games you will remember me. The guy is a Beast. Not a fan of Vancouver at all but thats the move i wish our GM would have made.

    Isn’t he the guy the Oilers knocked out of the game?

    #GudbrandsonFearsTheMightyOil

  92. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Paraphrasing (slightly) the Canucks apologist on Oilers Now right now, defending the Gudbranson trade: “This division is brutal, this conference is brutal, so you need brutal players

    (Bolded part mine)

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I hope you are right , I just don’t like the idea of him taking runs at our guys.

  93. G Money says:

    Hmm, I seem to have spent a lot of time random coding and Lowetiding.

    Have boiled the same damn kettle five times and never made my damn coffee!

    Can I still get the lawn mowed before it rains?

  94. blainer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: 9th, RNH and Nurse for Faulk.Damn… I like Faulk plenty, but damn that’s a lot.

    I agree. The only way I’m trading Nuge is if we have Stamkos or a Backes type signed before the trade.

  95. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76:
    Caramel Batman,

    Not at all, I guarantee after you watch Gudbanson “Kronwall”our forwards for a few games you will remember me. The guy is a Beast. Not a fan of Vancouver at all but thats the move i wish our GM would have made.

    Sure, I remember him smoking Hall at centre ice in the game here, and being first in line to fight Hendricks in the return match there.

    Kinda like an older Darnell Nurse.

    I also remember Gudbranson being a major culprit in Florida’s last game, when Tavares tied the game in the last minute of regulation and later won it in overtime. Gudbranson started his shift on his natural right side with Kulikov at 17:46 at the third, then when Kulikov switched off at 18:45, instead of doing likewise he shifted over to the his wrong side (further from the bench!) while Ekblad assumed the right side. Now 80 seconds into his shift Gudbranson gets walked by Leddy rushing up the wall, chases him behind the net and is also in frame but not doing anything as Tavares cleans up the mess.

    I guess maybe that’s on the coach, saying “no, Eric, stay on even though you’re sucking wind, play your wrong side, cuz we need you!” But my take at the time was that it was poor form and poor hockey both. I’ll have to see if i can find my tweet about this guy, but it was along the lines of “if this guy played on my team I’m pretty sure he’d drive me batshit”.

    Anyway, I guess we’ll have lots of opportunity to watch him now.

  96. kevin says:

    G Money: Sticking with your position no matter how strong the evidence is to the contrary is pretty close to the definition of dogmatic.

    I’m not sure if you are the one saying that Corsi is not that great of a stat for individual D, but I believe it is generally accepted.
    Is there large enough samples with all of the pairings?
    I thing that Reinhart and Oesterly were much better at the end of the year than Reinhart and Gryba at the beginning, weren’t they?

  97. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: 9th, RNH and Nurse for Faulk.Damn… I like Faulk plenty, but damn that’s a lot.

    While having angst over trying to find upper 4th line forward production D to replace our middle and bottom 4th line production D is important to some.
    You cannot have enough 4th line scoring on a team!

    I am a little concerned with GIVING UP

    1. one of the best PvP centers in the game when healthy

    2. A young Dman who was a 1st comp Net protection anchor in the OHL and at WJC. Who just needs to revert to not abandoning the area were 85% of GA come from. Just for the sake of trying to get upper 4th line caliber offence. Though I can understand his attempt. With GM’s paying those D up to 6M more than the D who require less GF to win.

    TO GET

    A Dman that
    1. Abondons the area were 85% of GA occur.
    2. while get paid stupid F……. cap hit dollars to score like an upper 4th line Forward.

    That is some hillbilly thinking.

    Come to think of it!
    A lot of oilers fans on hear are programmed by MSM in TOR who are from the segregated cultural pockets of TOR with gene pools shallower than some hutterrite colonies!
    Not that there is anything wrong with that!

    Carry on with these beauty trades!

  98. rickithebear says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Paraphrasing (slightly) the Canucks apologist on Oilers Now right now, defending the Gudbranson trade: “This division is brutal, this conference is brutal, so you need brutal players

    (Bolded part mine)

    Knock Knock!

    Who is there!

    Conf Fianlist team!

    Aren’t you one of the Teams with strong top 4 HSCA D depth.

    YUP!

    Of the none playoff teams in the west.
    2 teams had top 60 HSCA D

    EDM: 2
    Klefbom 1st comp Top 60 HSCA D missed 52gm
    Davidson bot 2nd comp top 30 HSCA D missed 31gm

    Klefbom – XXX
    Davidson -XXX

    VCR: 1
    Tanev 1st comp top 40 HSC AD

    now VCR has added

    Gudbranson 1st comp TOP 30 HSCA D
    so they can go!

    Tanev – Gudbranson

    or

    Tanev-XXX
    Gudbranson – XXX

    just brutal Trade!
    LMFAO!

  99. G Money says:

    kevin,

    You are correct, sir.

    I do not like CF% for individual D, it breaks too much for my liking. Not to say it is irrelevant – if a particular D’s five man units are always badly outshot or always outshoot the other guys by a wide margin when he’s on the ice, this is useful and relevant information. But as a measure, I do not like it.

    It is a big part of why I created my DangerousFenwick stat, which accounts for both distance and shot type, while still incorporating shot volume. DF acts as a blend of Fenwick and scoring / high danger chances.

    For a variety of reasons, I think DFA/60 is a better measure for D, and I include those for every defender and every defense pair in my post-game analyses over at OilersNerdAlert. (I have yet to *prove* it is better, partly because *proof* in almost any hockey context may represent an impossible problem)

    CF% however seems to be a pretty decent measure when you look at it for pairs.

    At this point, I have gone heavily to looking at WOWY data for defenders, rather than just singular Corsi. Again – not to say singular shot metrics info isn’t useful or important. But the context is so important, the WOWY is almost a necessity.

    All of the handedness analyses work within a pair and WOWY framework, and were filtered to avoid the overly small samples.

    Yes, Reinhart was definitely stronger later in the year, and the ReinOes did pretty well in a handful of games, better than the Reinhart-Gryba pairing.

    One of the few L-R pairings that did worse than an L-L pairing! (The issue with using Reinhart is those were his only two partners that met the TOI criteria, and as you pointed out, occurred at very distinctly separated times of the season).

  100. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear,

    Just so we’re clear:

    1. You argue that this metric is the best (sometimes only) metric by which to measure dmen, and
    2. You have him down as a top 30 against 1st comp, thereby

    3. You are saying that Gundbranson is already and established #1 dman in the league, not even top pairing, but rather a true #1.

    That seems awfully bold.

  101. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Hmm, I seem to have spent a lot of time random coding and Lowetiding.

    Have boiled the same damn kettle five times and never made my damn coffee!

    Can I still get the lawn mowed before it rains?

    I am writing an ON article and this damned thread is making me thirsty!

  102. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Interesting to re-read Chiarelli’s actual words after the Reinhart trade with the common paraphrase “Chia said he’d be ready to play top four. #fail”.

    That’s not his only quote about Reinhart.

    The one right at the draft was the one we all hung on in terms of top 4.

  103. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    rickithebear,

    I don’t always agree with you Ricki but the end of this post had me chuckling at my desk.

  104. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    G Money,

    – I said before anything else, in an ideal world LH/RH. You have completly ignored the concept of cost/benefit to do so. The teams this year in playoffs are mixed. There are many ways to build a D, and RD/LD balance is one consideration, it is not the do not pass go consideration, having 4 good is.

    – 1 TEAM HAS A TOP-4 RD/LD IN THE SEMIS. ALL 4 HAVE A GOOD TOP 4:

    TOI:
    SJ (Holy-Grail!):
    Burns – R
    Vlasic – L
    Martin – L
    Braun – R

    PITT (1R 3L)
    Letang – R
    DuMoulin – L
    Daley – L
    Cole – L

    STL (3R 1L)

    Pietrangelo – R
    Bowmeester – L
    Shatkirk – R
    Pareyko – R

    Tampa (3L 1R)
    Hedman – L
    Garrison – L
    Coburn – L
    Stusr – R

    – It would be a mistake to not take say Campbell for 2 years (who is a way better D than Vatenen), because one is fixated on top-4 RH/LH.

    – You take the WOWY of Sek with almost 700 minutes with Fayne, and compare 70 minutes with Davidson. I bet playing together 10 times more effects more how they play together than LH/RH

    – You say go all-in RH/LH top-4. You ignore that the cost of doing so is a significant consideration.

  105. G Money says:

    I did not finish the mowing before the rain and the thunder and the lightning.

    My yard looks like Mr. T. If he was green. And a lawn.

    On a completely unrelated note: any of you car buffs out there tried any of the high end paint sealants? Like e.g. Wolfgang, Klasse, or Chemical Guys Jetseal?

    I put some Klasse on my MDX a few weeks ago as a test. I read all kinds of warnings about how it dries as hard as iron so it was imperative that I use it super sparingly.

    So I put a ridiculously thin coat on, so thin that it did buff very easily – but I wasn’t sure if I actually put any on (it was glossy enough to make me think I did, but I supposed that could be the clay bar effect plus the detailer spray I used to help buff the sealant out).

    This is the first chance I’ve had to see it with the rain coming down, and the panels I did with the Klasse are beading like nobody’s business.

    Colour me impressed!

  106. su_dhillon says:

    For the Old Timey guys here, I just had a meeting with a guy named Dennis Kearns who apparently played for the Canucks in the 70’s and a couple of team Canada’s at World Championships.
    Helluva a nice fella.

  107. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL: – You take the WOWY of Sek with almost 700 minutes with Fayne, and compare 70 minutes with Davidson. I bet playing together 10 times more effects more how they play together than LH/RH

    – You say go all-in RH/LH top-4. You ignore that the cost of doing so is a significant consideration.

    I do not ignore it. I’m saying it is worth it. The penalty for playing L/L is enormous, so handedness becomes a nearly overriding concern. Pay the money.

    You’re also presupposing that I would accept any old RHD. No. Has to be a legit NHL Top 4 D. Also needs to be a good stylistic match (need one defender, one puck carrier/PP QB). Once you meet that bar, comparatively, handedness is critical.

    Your list of D is nearly meaningless. There are twice as many LHD in the league as RHD. Most teams are forced to play at least one off hand pair.

    That speaks nothing as to whether that pair is reduced in its effectiveness or not, compared to an equivalent pair with correct handedness. Hint: the answer is yes, they are less effective.

    And yes, the challenge of getting adequate sample size for L/L pairs is also there. Part of that may be that the results are so f’ing terrible that the coach pulls them apart quickly. Which is why you have to look at the larger picture and across multiple partners, pairings, and teams. (And if ‘familiarity’ is your explanation, then you’ll again have to explain why Sekera is more effective with ALL of his rightie partners, whether he played with them a lot or not).

    The pattern then is clear. Very very clear.

    You, on the other hand, seem so dead set on underweighting the role of handedness in the face of the evidence, you are trying (and failing I might add) to cherry pick data and teams to try and support your opinion.

    Dogma. It’s what’s for breakfast.

  108. Oilspill says:

    For those who’ve actually played the game you ll know the importance of the forwards in the D zone. If they are high and loose it makes it damn near impossible to make a good first pass with even a single forecheck. If thats the case the d have 3 options.
    1. Force a longer pass. Problem is easier to react to and chances for a dangerous giveaway become probable. COACHES fn hate this and will get you pine rash in a hurry.
    2. Skate it out. Easier said than done. You only do this if you have a man back and even then a good poke check from the opposition creates an odd man advantage against. Again …pine rash .
    3. Off the boards and out or an alley oop. Problem is real possession(not this shot shit) is likely given up.
    The best first pass is 15ft with a second a bit longer.

    So bottom line is forwards are most often responsible for exit fk ups not the D. The D gains possession the forwards support. Why do you think Maroon and Kassian are here. because they will get into the greasy areas..they aren’t scared. Watch Hendricks. He ALWAYS supports. Watch McDavid he supports. Hall is a part time resident and Eberle is on the last train to Clarksville.

  109. Lowetide says:

    su_dhillon:
    For the Old Timey guys here, I just had a meeting with a guy named Dennis Kearns who apparently played for the Canucks in the 70’s and a couple of team Canada’s at World Championships.
    Helluva a nice fella.

    Remember him well. He was in the Chicago system, got his break with the Canucks in expansion. Had some strong offensive seasons in the early Vancouver days.

  110. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Interesting to re-read Chiarelli’s actual words after the Reinhart trade with the common paraphrase “Chia said he’d be ready to play top four. #fail”.

    That’s not his only quote about Reinhart.

    The one right at the draft was the one we all hung on in terms of top 4.

    This is correct.

  111. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Someone call General Fanager!

    http://www.generalfanager.com/players/213

    They have it right when you look at the front page for the team:

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/boston-bruins

  112. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10,

    General Fanager has it on the Bruin’s Team page – not clear that the Cap drops with the salary on the player pager.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/boston-bruins

  113. Doug McLachlan says:

    Woodguy,

    One minute! Damn! 😉

  114. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Interesting to re-read Chiarelli’s actual words after the Reinhart trade with the common paraphrase “Chia said he’d be ready to play top four. #fail”.

    That’s not his only quote about Reinhart.

    The one right at the draft was the one we all hung on in terms of top 4.

    Kindly refresh me. I’ve been looking for Chia quotes about the trade **at the time of the trade** recently and have come up (ahem) dry. (Sorry, LT)

  115. blainer says:

    Oilspill:
    For those who’ve actually played the game you ll know the importance of the forwards in the D zone. If they are high and loose it makes it damn near impossible to make a good first pass with even a single forecheck.If thats the case the d have 3 options.
    1. Force a longer pass. Problem is easier to react to and chances for a dangerous giveaway become probable. COACHES fn hate this and will get you pine rash in a hurry.
    2. Skate it out. Easier said than done. You only do this if you have a man back and even then a good poke check from the opposition creates an odd man advantage against. Again …pine rash .
    3. Off the boards and out or an alley oop.Problem is real possession(not this shot shit) is likely given up.
    The best first pass is 15ft with a second a bit longer.

    So bottom line is forwards are most often responsible for exit fk ups not the D. The D gains possession the forwards support. Why do you think Maroon and Kassian are here. because they will get into the greasy areas..they aren’t scared. Watch Hendricks. He ALWAYS supports. Watch McDavid he supports. Hall is a part time resident and Eberle is on the last train to Clarksville.

    Excellent post. It’s one of the main reasons why a lot of the advanced stats look good for some players that are helped by teams that play well defensively both by forwards and D.

    Gudbranson’s HSCA will take a major dive on the canucks next year.. moving to weaker team and moving to the west.

  116. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I’ve posted this link before here, but I don’t think you read it.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

    You’re right that teams don’t all run L/R on D, even some good teams.

    That link shows that it is optimal though.

    Does that mean you drop Sekera in order to sign Polak to get a L/R equilibrium? Of course not.

    What it does mean is that you actively try for the balance because even very good players are less effective on their off side even if they say they are comfortable or even say they are more comfortable.

    It also means you actively draft RHD and RHC as much as you can when everything else is equal.

    I think the Bear selection and Marino selection at the draft is a step in the right direction.

    The GM of OTT was on Stauffer’s show today talking about how tough it is to find good RHD and that they are at a premium.

    If they are a premium, then mine them when they are free at the draft.

  117. Caramel Batman says:

    On handedness.

    No one would ever sign a left handed hitter and then bat him exclusively against left handed pitchers. The platoon advantage is real.

    Now sure I would rather have Barry Bonds at the plate against a lefty than Kevin Pillar but in hockey I don’t have to make that choice. I can have Bonds hit against the righty every single time, and have Pillar hit against the lefty every time.

    Besides we aren’t choosing between Barry Bonds and Kevin Millar, we are choosing between two similar players, who cost almost the same. This being the case there is no reason not to take the platoon advantage.

    Or to put it another way, the difference in acquisition cost is smaller than the platoon advantage. Get three RHD. It’s a no brainer.

  118. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy gave me the finger with left and right hands today.

  119. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Kindly refresh me. I’ve been looking for Chia quotes about the trade **at the time of the trade** recently and have come up (ahem) dry. (Sorry, LT)

    Trying to get it on the Oilers website, but its not co-operating right now.

    Leave it with me

  120. jonrmcleod says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Both Chiarelli and Green disclosed that they deem Reinhart ready to play in the NHL this season. They expect him to make the team out of camp.

    “I would hope so, yeah,” said Chiarelli. “He’s a young defenceman. He’s still finding his way but he’s big, he’s strong, he’s very smart, can play a lot of minutes. And you know what? He’s a young D that we’re happy to have in our mix, that can grow with us and help us right away.”

    Source: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=772521

  121. G Money says:

    Lowetide:
    Woodguy gave me the finger with left and right hands today.

    Just another example of the importance of handedness.

    L/R combinations of the finger are effective, but just trying giving someone a L/L or R/R combination of the finger!

    Every time I do, they’re like “peace to you to, man” which is (excuse my fancystats here) a clear sign that it was NOT effective.

  122. kevin says:

    stephen sheps: I know you’re not trying to be a dink, and my apologies for over-stepping or intervening but Fog’s long, unpredictable and brilliant narratives are a part of the very essence of this place, and it’s been that way for years and years. If you’re not into the giant walls of text, perhaps skip on through.

    This is his unique and incredible way of engaging with us and is plenty effective. Asking him to change would be akin to asking Hunter to not be a lunatic, ‘Steve Smith’ to become serious all the time, Ricki to learn better grammar (we’ve tried, it didn’t go over well, he is after all a real live bear) or Lowetide himself to take 3 weeks off.

    Fog, or DMW as he was once known, is a community treasure.

    Maybe someone can translate for those of us that can’t seem to follow along?

  123. LadiesloveSmid says:

    http://nypost.com/2016/05/25/you-might-not-recognize-anyone-on-the-rangers-next-season/

    everyone but Buchnevich, Lundqvist, and Skjei apparently on the table in NYR

    I would like to know just how good McDonagh is, but he is always playing with Girardi. (oh man, 52.1% CF away from him. 42.5% with. Over 6% higher CF away from him over the last 4 seasons). There’s a target where handedness probably is less important because he’d step in and be #1. Great contract too.

    Hayes and Kreider might be interesting fits. I can’t remember if Hayes is a fancy stats darling or the opposite. Here’s a fun stat for you, Hayes played the exact same ES time last year as this year to the second

  124. stephen sheps says:

    kinger_OIL:
    G Money,

    G Money,

    Tampa (2L 2R)
    Hedman – L
    Strahlman- R
    Garrison – L
    Sustr – R

    FIFY

    I tend to side with G on the handedness issue, but your point is well made.

  125. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Pietrangelo – R
    Bowmeester – L
    Shatkirk – R
    Pareyko – R

    I checked the two STL games against CHI, 2 against DAL and two against SJS

    In all 6 games Parayko’s main partner was LHD Gunnarson.

    In all 6 games Shattenkirk’s main partner was LHD Edmunson.

    Are you just looking at TOI and guessing who was paired with who?

    naturalstattrick.com has every game and TOI for every player and every opponent and goals/assists/shots/corsi etc for every permutation therein.

    Here’s one of the Stars/Blues games as an example: http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20152016&game=30235

  126. G Money says:

    Anyone here use puckon.net?

    If so, do you use their ‘event adjusted’ stat? (or perhaps a better question is, which version of their stat do you use, SA, SVA, or ESVA?)

  127. Younger Oil says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    http://nypost.com/2016/05/25/you-might-not-recognize-anyone-on-the-rangers-next-season/

    everyone but Buchnevich, Lundqvist, and Skjei apparently on the table in NYR

    I would like to know just how good McDonagh is, but he is always playing with Girardi. (oh man, 52.1% CF away from him. 42.5% with. Over 6% higher CF away from him over the last 4 seasons). There’s a target where handedness probably is less important because he’d step in and be #1. Great contract too.

    Hayes and Kreider might be interesting fits.I can’t remember if Hayes is a fancy stats darling or the opposite. Here’s a fun stat for you, Hayes played the exact same ES time last year as this year to the second

    There could definitely be a deal there.

    Though I really like Dubois, I wouldn’t be against something like 4th OV + Yak + Reinhart/Nurse for McDonagh and Kreider/Hayes.

    Even if McDonagh is a lefty.

  128. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy,

    that is a fun little site. thanks!

  129. kinger_OIL says:

    – It’s important to communicate stats using common sense. This is the money phrase from that study: “Correspondingly, handedness definitely warrants a place in the decision making process when identifying ideal pieces to fill a vacant roster spot.”

    – Indeed, there are other factors to consider when building D rosters, including mostly cost of acquistion, which I’ve said from the beginning.

    – So when I summarize this by saying that there is a cost benefit, if you want the quant way of saying this, how about: “the relative cost of paying up for that 6.81 corsi/60 is dear, and the marginal cost for the additional utility is not justified given all the other holes we have.”

    – But saying: “just get better D” is way more direct and understandable and fun on a blog!

    – LH/RH may be “better”, but in the context of a salary cap it is mostly not possible.

    – This team can get a lot better with 4 effective top-4 (not to mention all the other areas that they need to get better at), without having to shoot their load and at all cost acquire 2 5x6MM RHD because the quants say its better in a vacuum to the detriment of the rest of the roster

    – We don’t need to pay up for that optimal 6.81 corsi+ event now. We need to get to playoffs. I don’t see how we get optimal RH/DH, and fix our Forward group and get a back-up goalie.

    – Just get 4 good D FFS, at least one of them RD, unless you find a real deal.

    – And draft and value more the RHD and RHC all things being equal, like WG says!

  130. Richard S.S. says:

    To quote Lowetide:
    Last year’s haul—Sekera, Talbot, Letestu, Reinhart, Korpikoski, Gryba—was wildly uneven, as one would expect from such an aggressive summer.

    Sekera was a very good acquisition, if a little expensive.
    Talbot was an amazing win at any price.
    Letestu was a good acquisition, but a bit pricey.
    Gryba was a real and usefully acquisition, if a little expensive.
    Reinhart is TBA. He looks like a real NHL D, with things to learn.
    Korpikoski was a miss, but not a big failure.

    Opinions will differ. Considering the price for young D, Reinhart’s acquisition might be a bargain.

  131. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Woodguy gave me the finger with left and right hands today.

    Both were correct

  132. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Woodguy gave me the finger with left and right hands today.

    Balance.

  133. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Totally off topic, but Chris Phillips retiring today is pretty amazing. 17 seasons with 1 team, as a first overall pick… and that team being a budget constrained small market Canadian underdog.

    There was discussion in the article at TSN about whether or not they retire his number. I think it would be crazy not to.

  134. Snowman says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I get what you’re saying Kinger but if you have an opportunity to get an optimal solution out of the gate why wouldn’t you?

    If you make a lesser deal for a lefty to get you to the playoffs but then you later need to make an additional deal to get an “optimal” righty to push you deep in the playoffs I’m not sure why you wouldn’t just pay up front for the best fit solution today (assuming its available).

  135. Professor Q says:

    G Money: Isn’t he the guy the Oilers knocked out of the game?

    #GudbrandsonFearsTheMightyOil

    That was Ekblad…

  136. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Snowman,

    I think it comes down to cost, and ultimately supply/demand.

    Let’s assume more consumers (teams) are pursuing RHD than LHD because they also believe that balance is ideal. So demand for RHD trumps demand for LHD in the market.

    The converse is true for supply. There are more LHD than RHD. Let’s assume quality of LHD is on par with RHD but there are more of them.

    So given that, the price of RHD is going to be higher.

    So take a guy like Jason Demers. Let’s say he had a twin named John Demers. Identical player in every way, but John is left handed. Let’s assume both are only interested in a 5 year deal.

    Even though we need RHD more than LHD, and assuming we can only add 1 guy, at what point does John become more attractive than Jason, if Jason costs $5.5 million?

    Would you rather have John at $4.5 million?

    $3 million?

    Maybe there is no price where you’d accept the LHD as superior value to the RHD.

  137. Water Fire says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76: Bruce McCurdy,

    I hope you are right , Ijust don’t like the idea of him taking runs at our guys.

    Maroon will sort him out if he runs around. And Connor will reward his efforts on the PP, if he can actually catch any Oiler skill players

  138. G Money says:

    Professor Q: That was Ekblad…

    Damn. All those Florida defensemen look the same to me.

    #EkbladFearsTheMightyOil

    However, my memory wasn’t entirely out to lunch. I’m pretty sure Gudbranson was injured in that game.

  139. G Money says:

    For the McDonagh-curious, a DangerFen WOWY chart: http://i.imgur.com/NciC94V.png

    All the green bubbles are close to or above the breakeven line.

    The purple bubbles are generally positive as well.

    Girardi is a fuckin’ anchor.

    Yeah, I’d say he’s probably a pretty good player.

    Now if only we could somehow get Benning in as a temporary GM fill-in over there …

  140. stevezie says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Which Goldman book? From the tone of the quote i assume you mean William? Great author. Beautiful writer. Princess Bride is an unheralded post-modern classic. The movie is fun, but the book…

    Anyway, i like Goldman.

  141. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yes, he was traded for Dillon.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/sharks-trade-demers-draft-pick-to-stars-for-dillon/c-740387

    Thanks & yes I was aware. It was a rhetorical question in response to a weird assertion. A D for D trade apparently forced McLellan to move a F to D.

  142. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Caramel Batman:
    On handedness.

    No one would ever sign a left handed hitter and then bat him exclusively against left handed pitchers.The platoon advantage is real.

    Now sure I would rather have Barry Bonds at the plate against a lefty than Kevin Pillar but in hockey I don’t have to make that choice.I can have Bonds hit against the righty every single time, and have Pillar hit against the lefty every time.

    Besides we aren’t choosing between Barry Bonds and Kevin Millar, we are choosing between two similar players, who cost almost the same.This being the case there is no reason not to take the platoon advantage.

    Or to put it another way, the difference in acquisition cost is smaller than the platoon advantage.Get three RHD.It’s a no brainer.

    Not to nitpick…okay I am to nitpick but there are reverse platoon split guys. For example, Ichiro!

  143. Oilspill says:

    HandedNess is a huge problem on the defensive side of the puck. A defense man in the attacking zone usually has to turn his back to the play to corral a puck coming off the boards and use his backhand to begin an play.
    This gives the opposing forward a lot more time to make a defensive play.
    Yes you have a better chance at a one time but it is seriously overshadowed by how uncomfortable MOST players are on their weak side.
    Being that about 1/3 of NHL shoot from the left side it tells you why right shooters are at a premium.

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