MOOD INDIGO

I am sure we can all agree the Oilers have a pretty nice LH depth chart on defense. Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart and we will end it at Jordan Oesterle. The right side? I count Mark Fayne, with Eric Gryba signable but similar to MF. We haven’t run the list of possible blue in awhile, thought I would update and review.

BLUE STEEL, SUMMER 2016

  1. Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. The book end for Andrej Sekera?
  2. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Quality option for puck mover.
  3. Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. Would be higher, question availability.
  4. Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. This is a solid player and a great option for Edmonton.
  5. Sami Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks. Solid offense, not completely proven.
  6. Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender.
  7. Michael Stone, Arizona Coyotes. Major knee surgery.
  8. David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  9. Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player.
  10. Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. The more I look at his career, the better the fit.
  11. Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. The numbers imply there is a player here.
  12. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value. Very young.
  13. Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  14. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  15. Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. That hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need.
  16. Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. Puck-moving prospect.
  17. Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. Another player with a puck-moving element to his game.
  18. Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  19. Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. I think management likes him.
  20. Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system.
  21. Frank Corrado, Toronto Maple Leafs. Very little evidence but he showed up in some good places.
  22. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  23. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  24. Taylor Aronson, Nashville Predators. Minor-league defender.
  25. Matt Irwin, Boston Bruins. Depth defender.

NUGE AT THE WORLD HOCKEY CHAMPIONSHIPS

I hope RNH makes it, believe he has earned it, but am not counting on it happening. I do think Peter Chiarelli probably hurt his trade bargaining position by keeping his center off the initial list. He may regret it, but I am glad of it. I don’t think Taylor Hall makes the big team, either. Not being critical of either man, and do believe both belong on their respective teams.

STEVEN STAMKOS, OILER

It is day one. Any news? Not yet.

mcdavid capture 12

NHLE’s (LAST YEAR)

Last season, Oilers fans knew there were very good prospects coming to camp with bona fide NHLEs. If a player who is outside the NHL and has an equivalency that suggests big league talent, that is an early tell. Here are some from last year.

  1. C Connor McDavid 23-40-63
  2. C Leon Draisaitl 15-26-41
  3. R Andrew Miller 15-20-35
  4. D Brad Hunt 11-19-30
  5. L Anton Slepyshev 17-11-28
  6. R Iiro Pakarinen 16-10-26
  7. C Bogdan Yakimov 10-13-23
  8. D Darnell Nurse 7-16-23
  9. D Jordan Oesterle 5-9-14
  10. C Jujhar Khaira 4-5-9
  11. D Brandon Davidson 3-4-7

All the numbers from last year are here. Most of these guys played in the NHL. The point here is that if you are a defender with 20+ NHLE points (Hunt, Nurse) I think it probably indicates some offensive ability. If you are a forward with an NHLE of more than 60 points, you should probably just go ahead and purchase a home.

NHLE THIS YEAR

  1. L Matt Tkachuk 14-35-49 (not yet drafted)
  2. L Drake Cagguila 22-22-44
  3. D Ziyat Paigin 13-28-41
  4. R Patrick Russell 17-17-34
  5. L Josh Winquist 9-24-33
  6. L Jere Sallinen 10-15-25
  7. R Tyler Pitlick 7-15-22
  8. D Jordan Oesterle 4-18-22
  9. C Jujhar Khaira 8-13-21
  10. D Ethan Bear 6-15-21

If the Oilers draft Matt Tkachuk—I do think it is possible (though not a lock) then Tkachuk is NHL-ready according to NHLE. Edmonton would not need him right away (LW depth chart is very good, actually) and as you can see Drake Cagguila is also a bona fide LW prospect.

The most intriguing name is Ziyat Paigin, who will not be coming over (one more year to go in the KHL). It will be interesting to see if he can duplicate his breakout season (ZP was traded back to his old team, sometimes a trade can impact performance/opportunity).

The rest of the list is interesting if not compelling. I think Jordan Oesterle and Jujhar Khaira making the list bodes well for their NHL chances in the coming year.

BENOIT POULIOT

If the Oilers are considering Matt Tkachuk at No. 4 overall, it follows the club may decide to deal a LW at some point in the next 12 months. The current NHL depth chart is damned good, but Benoit Pouliot—an effective NHL player—may have enough value to bring solid return. The dual additions of Drake Cagguila and Matt Tkachuk might give us an indication that dealing Pouliot is in fact likely in the coming months. The question I have is this: Will that trade come this summer? It could be framed as dealing from strength to address weakness (RHD), so in that way is a traditional trade idea.

PROJECTED OILERS ROSTER

current oilers roster

I wanted to talk for a minute about the Erik Gudbranson trade. We have chatted about the value of the trade, but for me there is huge appeal in the timing of the deal. Vancouver, for better or worse, have already addressed a big part of their summer’s work and can now move on to the next step.

Peter Chiarelli did a lot of his heavy work around the draft last season, and one suspects he will do the same this year. In adding Griffin Reinhart, Cam Talbot and Eric Gryba in one fell swoop, it allowed the team to focus on free agency and Andrej Sekera.

I wonder if the team would be wise to make a move now, today, for a RH blue. It would allow the club to address a need early and then see what is available for the next order of business. The reason I mention it? Still wondering about the Griffin Reinhart deal and the bonus item. If Peter Chiarelli knew about the cap bonus and potential impact, he would have factored in McDavid and Draisaitl and known that only two of the three (Reinhart being the third) could be on the roster.

Did he know that? No idea. I will say that in all honesty my confidence in the people surrounding him is such that it would not surprise me to learn that the Oilers table did not have that information. And that alone is cause for concern.

I would feel better if Peter Chiarelli broke up his summer into bite-sized chunks instead of relying on his staff to give him all of the important information in real time. Jmo.

hurdle gif

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Friday show, I am off next week so we will leave it all out there today! TSN1260, 10 this morning. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. The SC Final is set, who you got? Plus World Cup of Hockey.
  • Matt Iwaynyk, TSN1260. Iwaynk’s five steps to Oilers contention is real, and it is spectacular. We will discuss today (it really is a good list).
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. A gent who we have missed in the last couple of weeks, we will talk about a large number of items—including his very early call of Matt Tkachuk to the Oilers.

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189 Responses to "MOOD INDIGO"

  1. supernova says:

    I have a fresh post at The Oilers Rig today.

    Fits in very nice with Lowetide discussing the defence

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/05/cap-conscious-defence/

  2. PunjabiOil says:

    It would be criminal if Hall doesn’t make it.

    Punishing a good player on a bad team would show a complete lack of logic and rationale.

    Boils my blood thinking about it tbh.

  3. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    I have a fresh post at The Oilers Rig today.

    Fits in very nice with Lowetide discussing the defence

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/05/cap-conscious-defence/

    I am off next week, but would like to get you on the air when I get back (if you are open to it). The offer comes with the promise of verbal abuse over things like musical taste, distance to your home and poor driving.

  4. Aitch says:

    If Bill Peters, who is an assistant on the World Cup team, has any sway at all with the team’s GM, I say Hall makes the team. Hard not to look at the ice-time in the final against Finland and see a fan of Hall’s in Peters.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    When Jultz wins his cup, we can sign him back here as our right shot D. He’ll know a thing or two about winning then.

    Must be bad news coming, or LT’s expecting a little push back to his post today. LT always puts that gif up when trouble’s a brewin’.

  6. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Interesting article on Canucks Army about Eric Staal. Writer suggests that he may be a candidate for a short term deal in the “Erhoff to the Penguins to pump his numbers for a longer term deal” mould.

    Basically the argument is that his decline was so noticeable last year, particularly as it spanned two teams, will make it difficult to sign the long term lucrative deal everyone assumed he would be getting 12 months ago.

    If you were Chia, would you make a 1 year pitch to the guy for medium to high dollars? Obviously cheaper is better, but would a 1 x 6 or 2 x 5 be of interest?

  7. Ducey says:

    Team Russia announced.

    No Yakkity Yak. Yeah, I know, its the Oilers’ fault.

    Voynov is on the team. Seems to me that this moves him closer to a return to the NHL. Might be a cheap pickup. He no longer shows up on the Kings cap. Is he a UFA?

    Edit: I see he may not be able to play
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/russias-slava-voynov-may-banned-world-cup/

  8. Water Fire says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Interesting article on Canucks Army about Eric Staal.Writer suggests that he may be a candidate for a short term deal in the “Erhoff to the Penguins to pump his numbers for a longer term deal” mould.

    Basically the argument is that his decline was so noticeable last year, particularly as it spanned two teams, will make it difficult to sign the long term lucrative deal everyone assumed he would be getting 12 months ago.

    If you were Chia, would you make a 1 year pitch to the guy for medium to high dollars?Obviously cheaper is better, but would a 1 x 6 or 2 x 5 be of interest?

    Only if he can skate still. Slow is a killer now. The top teams are very fast.

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    I think Eric Staal may be the new Vinny Lacavalier. Still a extrememly effective player in the role he’ll be playing. A lot of hard miles on that guy. He would be perfect should Nuge be traded.

  10. Snowman says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Much rather have Backes. Not even close.

  11. zatch says:

    In the Off Topic File: Indications that Bettman is in Quebec today. The State of the League address on Monday should be telling. One way or another the league has to address expansion and relocation rumours at this point. Expansion for 17-18 has to be confirmed and the rules codified by the draft, so…that’s soon.

  12. Jethro Tull says:

    Snowman:
    Jethro Tull,

    Much rather have Backes. Not even close.

    LOL, true, as would I, but Backes is gettin’ PAID! I think Staal might be a little cheaper.

  13. Ducey says:

    Jethro Tull:
    When Jultz wins his cup, we can sign him back here as our right shot D.He’ll know a thing or two about winning then.

    I noticed Jultz suddenly found a pretty wicked (if totally inaccurate) slapshot in PIT. He could have broken that out around here. He seems to spend lots of time on the left side with Letang on the PP. He is being set up for the one timer.

    Looks to have a bit more mojo. Otherwise he has looked the same by my eye. Giving opponents tons of room, Jultzing away with his stick. Played just 12 minutes yesterday, 10 min 5 x 5.

  14. Snowman says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I don’t think Staal is going to be that much cheaper. I think he’s going to do ok.

  15. Fog of Warts says:

    I did something I’ve never done on Wednesday. I asked the video store proprietor (15 years experience, 30,000 titles at hand on shelves) to suggest three movies “that aren’t viewed as much as they should be”.

    In order by notability, I ended up with The Night of the Hunter, 13 Tzameti, and Treed Murray.

    I also asked “how many movies do you think you’ve seen?” and he said “thousands”.

    “Yeah,” I said. “That’s the problem with being a critic. For every good movie you watch, you have to watch three or four dull or bad ones.”

    “No, it’s more like ten to one,” he replied. “Like, for example, I tend to watch most of the new movies we bring in, just to know what we’ve got.”

    This morning I took a close look at what I’ve actually got, and realize I’ve just trafficked with an adrenaline junkie. He doesn’t scream inside when he’s watching a bad movie, he just wants to get some sleep.

    My lemon tree gave me heck one time for bringing home Darwin’s Nightmare, Bus 174, and a third movie, equally good and equally grim about the life of the downtrodden. That was almost a decade ago. I’ve been trying for years to remember what that third movie was. It was quite the triple whammy. Darwin’s Nightmare alone should be preceded by securing knifes and razor blades for twenty-four hours.

    Since then, I’ve made a conscious effort to pace things at least a bit.

    I did screw up again with a trippy whammy of anti-heroes, two of them were The Wolf of Wall Street and Barney’s Version. (Well, there’s another project for the next decade. What was the third?) The cumulative effect of the triad was “please, please, please choke on the ham, so we can end this now.” I was never so disappointed over a heroic rescue in my entire movie life.

    No, wait—incoming—I think the third movie was Blue Jasmine. Close enough to complete the picture.

    The power of watching movies in groups is the reason I continue to patronize my local brick-and-mortar polycarbonate warehouse. Because I can generally obtain any group of three movies I dream up for the same weekend.

    It’s just so cool at midnight on Saturday—at this age you take what you can get—and you suddenly go “you know what, all three of these movies had a central bicycle scene” and you never would have imagined it when you started out.

    That happened after I watched Bullitt (the shady places from which I obtain my recommendations, you just wouldn’t believe). Can’t remember what the common thread of the group was. I think it had something to do with the hospital theme. Perhaps it was white tape under the nose. Weird things jump out of well-chosen groupings.

    I wasn’t meaning to return here (correction: I was definitely meaning not to return here) the Goldman book had an entire chapter on Year of the Comet also by Peter Yates—also of Breaking Away which I really like—from an original screenplay by you-know-who. 0% score on Rotten Tomatoes. No-one seems to hate, hate, hate the picture, exactly, but by all accounts no amount of fine wine would rescue that turkey.

    So, yes, I’ve got an hour and a half in my near future stuck up some large tree over night in some terrifying Toronto green space. Well, I can say this: beats 50 years. If the movie proves dull, I’ll bear that in mind.

    ———

    Late addition:

    Anyone who wants to test their razor-blade resistance threshold, add to Darwin and Bus the sensationally uplifting 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days.

    Good god, we might not still be together if that had actually been the third item.

  16. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    PunjabiOil:
    It would be criminal if Hall doesn’t make it.

    Punishing a good player on a bad team would show a complete lack of logic and rationale.

    Boils my blood thinking about it tbh.

    Come on really? Punished? This isnt high school. The tape doesnt lie. They will look at his tape to see if he has the type of OVERALL game Team Canada looks for. That includes the tape of him playing with Allstars in Team Canada.

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    Just wondering if Connor Murphy should be added to the list of trade candidates. If RNH is not named to the World Cup team I will lay the blame directly at the feet of Chia. Same with Hall to a lesser degree. Chia isn’t running the Canadian team, but I refuse to believe he doesn’t have the juice to make it happen. It’s not like these two players are huge outliers.

  18. supernova says:

    Lowetide: I am off next week, but would like to get you on the air when I get back (if you are open to it). The offer comes with the promise of verbal abuse over things like musical taste, distance to your home and poor driving.

    Lowetide,

    I do have a dirt road to my house (acreage)!

    I would be interested I run a busy schedule, some days or weeks work better than others.

  19. Jethro Tull says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Come on really? Punished? This isnt high school. The tape doesnt lie. They will look at his tape to see if he has the type of OVERALL game Team Canada looks for. That includes the tape of him playing with Allstars in Team Canada.

    LOL, look at tape. Nope. They’ll call Babs and he’ll say “no.” Whatever else the execs for Team Canada are, they ain’t tape watchers. More like ‘Gut Feel’ and ‘Who Does Sid Want?’ As long as Hall isn’t kept out by Chris Fudgin’ Kunitz, then I’ll be ok with it.

  20. supernova says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Interesting article on Canucks Army about Eric Staal.Writer suggests that he may be a candidate for a short term deal in the “Erhoff to the Penguins to pump his numbers for a longer term deal” mould.

    Basically the argument is that his decline was so noticeable last year, particularly as it spanned two teams, will make it difficult to sign the long term lucrative deal everyone assumed he would be getting 12 months ago.

    If you were Chia, would you make a 1 year pitch to the guy for medium to high dollars?Obviously cheaper is better, but would a 1 x 6 or 2 x 5 be of interest?

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I have some interest in Eric Stall but anything over $3.5 to $4 million I walk away from.

    I don’t know his game or warts well enough but he looks like he has stepped off the Cliff of key contributors.

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    It would be criminal if Hall doesn’t make it.

    Punishing a good player on a bad team would show a complete lack of logic and rationale.

    Boils my blood thinking about it tbh.

    Me too. I’m not one of those guys who will get upset if McDavid doesn’t win the Calder, but Hall damn well better make the team. It’s not his fault the Oil suck. He’s done absolutely everything asked of him and more. And he was one of the best players at the Worlds.

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull: LOL, look at tape.Nope.They’ll call Babs and he’ll say “no.”Whatever else the execs for Team Canada are, they ain’t tape watchers.More like ‘Gut Feel’ and ‘Who Does Sid Want?’As long as Hall isn’t kept out by Chris Fudgin’ Kunitz, then I’ll be ok with it.

    What if Marchand makes it ahead of him? Oh ya. He’s great on the PK. Although Hall is in a different league 5×5. And Marchand is also great at taking penalties.

  23. vinotintazo says:

    So general concensus here was that Gubranson was a 3rd pair RHD, and now im hearing everyone saying he’s above average 2nd pair guy. So which one is right? if he’s an anbove Avg 2nd pair guy, why didnt we chase him? 🙁 .

    RHD targets are getting slim. And Van payed dearly to get him.

  24. russ99 says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Night of the Hunter is in my top 10. The Criteron Blu-Ray is epic, for cinematography alone.

  25. HBomb says:

    If Taylor Hall doesn’t make the final roster, it will be 100% correct to criticize Doug Armstrong and the Team Canada management team for the World Cup for not taking the best possible roster.

    Arguing they have done that while leaving their 2nd best natural LW off the roster (only Benn is better among Canadians, and only he and Ovechkin would rank higher among ALL LW’s in the world right now) is contradictory.

    A Hall exclusion from the final 23 is wholly inexcusable. Full stop.

  26. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Do you own a time machine, or have you found a way to have a conversation with some sort of Netflix Avatar?

  27. Alpine says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Just wondering if Connor Murphy should be added to the list of trade candidates. If RNH is not named to the World Cup team I will lay the blame directly at the feet of Chia. Same with Hall to a lesser degree. Chia isn’t running the Canadian team, but I refuse to believe he doesn’t have the juice to make it happen. It’s not like these two players are huge outliers.

    Have you seen the roster for Canadian centremen? Nuge shouldn’t make it on merit.

  28. Richard S.S. says:

    What has Chiarelli to trade?

    1) Draft Picks in 2016 Draft. He has 5 picks with varying value in the 2016 Draft, but might need the picks in 2017 for an offer sheet threat. Best value for the picks will be during the Draft.

    2) Surpluses in LHD. Most likely to go would be Davidson, Nurse or Reinhart. Each has a varied value. Young D should never be traded unless a quality upgrade is coming back in return.

    3) Surpluses in C. Only Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins has the trade value Chiarelli needs. Ryan has a big cap hit, so matching money or taking back more is necessary and that means blockbuster deal (just because of the money moved). That could happen almost anytime, but usually occurs after the initial Free Agent rush July 1st. Leon is the most desirable asset Chiarelli has available, young stud C on an ELC. This is a 1-1 deal for what the GM needs and can happen fast.

    4) Cap Space is a fleeting thing and starts vanishing at the Draft. It takes a determined effort to keep that space requiring unpleasant moves to be made. Deals requiring this usually happen very near Season Start, and I don’t know if Chiarelli will wait that long.

    Who can the Oilers trade with?

    1) Any Team with some crazy going on, especially bat-dung crazy.
    2) Any Team needing to move up in the Draft or wanting more picks.
    3) Any Team with lots of young skilled D and a need.
    4) Any Team with a desperate GM/Owner/both.

  29. su_dhillon says:

    Fog of Warts:
    I did something I’ve never done on Wednesday.I asked the video store proprietor (15 years experience, 30,000 titles at hand on shelves) to suggest three movies “that aren’t viewed as much as they should be”.

    Are there still video rental stores?

  30. classict says:

    Alpine,

    Nuge would be playing on team North America not team Canada

  31. Richard S.S. says:

    vinotintazo,

    TSN said in their initial reports on the deal, he’s not what Vancouver needs him to be. The player or the picks should have been enough, not both.

  32. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I asked this question in a thread yesterday late in the day, didn’t get a responce, so I’ll try again.

    For my LHD/RHD knowledgeable folks:

    I understand the value in having 3 of each in the top six, and I agree it’s optimal. But that said, I believe most teams have clued into this recently (surely not all, but more than half). Because of this I believe RHD will or have become more expensive to acquire than LHD, all things being equal.

    On that front, assuming we can only sign one guy etc. etc., if there were twins in the league that were exactly the same player (Jason Demers and John Demers) and the only difference between the two was handedness, at what price point would you take LHD John over RHD Jason?

    Assuming both require a 5 year deal, and Jason requires $5.5 million/year, how much cheaper would John have to be in order for him to be the more effective signing, given that he will require that one of our top 4D pairs will have two lefties on it?

    Would you rather have a $3million lefty than a $5.5million righty, assuming they are otherwise identical? Is it $5.25 million? Is it never?

    Where does the value tip the scale?

  33. Jethro Tull says:

    JimmyV1965: What if Marchand makes it ahead of him? Oh ya. He’s great on the PK. Although Hall is in a different league 5×5. And Marchand is also great at taking penalties.

    I totally would not be surprised if Perry, Marchand or even Gallagher makes it in front of Hall. Not that I agree with it, I just wouldn’t be surprised.

    Perception is everything. Why put in the time and effort to see why you should include Hall when the work’s already been done for you? Perception by many outside the Oilers is that Hall is a ‘Turnover Machine’ (pineapple’s my favourite), ‘Entitled’, ‘Defensively Inadequate’. This is why I’m all for our players going to every WHC and event they can, because the more players from other teams and the more coaches they play for outside the org, the more the perception changes.

  34. flyfish1168 says:

    Hi LT

    Great article as always. As there is a premium being paid on RHD I think we need to be looking for LHD that prefers to play on the Right side. Niklas Hjalmarsson is an example. He probably won’t come cheap but at least this will broaden the pool of prospective players we can choose from. JMHO

  35. who says:

    I think most people are going to be let down by what Chia acquires this summer. Looking at your list the only number 1 dman that stands out is Faulk and I don’t think he is available. We are saying trade RNH for Faulk but I cant think of a reason Carolina makes that deal. They have Stall, Rask, Lindholm and an exact replica to RNH in Aho. Besides I don’t think RNH gets you a top pairing guy anyways.
    The only forward we have, other than Macdavid, that gets a true top pairing guy is Hall. The deal and team that makes the most sense is Anaheim. They have a shortage of left wingers, we have a surplus. Especially if the Oilers draft at #4. Hall for Lindholm. If the righty thing matters that much you would probably have more luck swapping Lindholm for a true top pairing righty. Otherwise you are stuck with him, wouldn’t that be awful.
    Don’t really think Barrie is available and would take an overpay. Don’t see Vatanen as a top pairing guy and although Demers only costs money it is also going to be an overpay and may limit how many of the good young players the Oilers can keep
    The other scenario is trading smaller pieces for young unproven rightys and I am okay with that. Guys like Trouba, Severson, Pysyk can probably be acquired for one of our young lefty dmen or a non core forward. This would mean that Sek /Fayne would be our top pairing, or at least our tough minutes pairing, to start the season. That is okay as long as we have some young righty dmen to pair with Kelfbom and push for those top pairing minutes by the end of next season.
    Wonder if Hamonic would still be available and if Eberle, Davidson would get you Hamonic, Strome. That would be ideal so it probably won’t happen.

  36. su_dhillon says:

    On Erik Gudbranson, as an Oiler fan living in Vancouver I obviously hope this is a huge mistake and Benning takes them back into the stone age and honestly he may very well do that.

    i don’t know if he is playing at the level of a 5 or 4 i will let the guys who really break down the numbers determine that. I do think adding guys like him is usually a mistake because of the opportunity cost. In a cap obviously if you pay more for one spot you have less for another.

    To me when you pay for guys that bring little to no offense it creates a problem because you still need offense and offense generally costs more. I think you are far more likely to find a cheap D that can play the minutes Gudbranson plays than you are finding a player who provides offense from the back end cheaply.

    Low scoring, good skating D that can play 15-18 minutes don’t grow on trees but still the supply of that type of player is larger than one that brings some level of puck moving ability and offense. In fact the Canucks have been a team that has found good quality young D to play those minutes probably better than most teams.

    The idea that the player will deliver value considering the the assets given up to acquire and then the cap space it will take to keep him seems like a really bad bet.

  37. Caramel Batman says:

    I won’t be surprised if Hall doesn’t make it. They have a lot of guys to choose from, Perry, Couture, Dechene, and Marchand are all probably ahead of him, while Sheifele and Stone were great in Russia. Plus old man Thornton

    My Team Canada, using only even strength pts/60. Because why complicate things. You want the best players and the best players are the players that score the most at even strength. No need for power play specialists.

    Put them in whatever lines you like. This is the top 13 using the last two years

    Jamie Benn
    Tyler Seguin
    Tyler Johnson
    Rick Nash
    Mike Hoffman
    Sidney Crosby
    Jonathan Huberdeau
    Matt Duchene
    John Taveres
    Mark Stone
    Tyler Toffoli
    Jeff Carter

    Now say that Hoffman might play easier minutes, and Huberdeau’s is in a smaller sample size, and Toffoli is riding Carter’s coat tails so take them out and replace them with the next three, which is:

    Ryan Getzlaf
    Taylor Hall
    Joe Thornton

    But all these guys are basically tied along with Corey Perry who is next. Plus we haven’t gotten to Toews yet. So you add Perry and Toews and now we have too many guys. Hard team to make.

    I love Taylor Hall but I dont think he’s a slamdunk for the team. Here are my 13 forwards

    Benn
    Seguin
    Johnson
    Crosby
    Duchene or Hall
    Tavares
    Stone
    Carter
    Getzlaf
    Perry
    Thornton
    Schiefele
    Toews

    On defense I play the L/R game

    lefties
    Keith
    Vlasic
    not sure

    righties

    Burns
    Subban
    Letang
    Pietreangelo

  38. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    HBomb:
    If Taylor Hall doesn’t make the final roster, it will be 100% correct to criticize Doug Armstrong and the Team Canada management team for the World Cup for not taking the best possible roster.

    Arguing they have done that while leaving their 2nd best natural LW off the roster (only Benn is better among Canadians, and only he and Ovechkinwould rank higher among ALL LW’s in the world right now) is contradictory.

    A Hall exclusion from the final 23 is wholly inexcusable.Full stop.

    No way Hall is better than Johnny Gaudreau who’s American and who cares about “natural” winger. You telling me you would take Hall over a guy like Tavares on Team Canada because he’s a natural center?

    Also, based on your logic why do they even have a selection process why not just give it to the top scorers each year? Unicorns baby we will just win 8-7 every game! Because they tried that years ago and it doesnt work. It’s a team game Team Canada wants guys that contribute both ends of the ice and are responsible defensively. It’s why guys like Vlasic and Pietrangelo are on the team and not Letang and Subban.

    Sure, Hall speed is elite and he tries hard but if you compare his overall game to the others on the team it pales in comparison and that’s what wins games whether you like it or not.

    Claude Giroux has the most pts in the NHL the last what? 5 or 6 years? Plus he is great faceoff guy and solid defensively and he might not make the team. Hall isnt even close to being as good as an overall player as Giroux so give it a rest.

  39. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Makes sense if Tyler Johnson was Canadian….

  40. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – Cash: you tried to help me out with my position on this in the last thread. Based on the study cited there is a 6 corsi event/game improvement when you have LH/RH across all the data (but the variance is significant, and the R squared not so strong as to be lock and load, and many instances where LD’s are better as RD’s and vice-versa: its not a truism, just on the whole better).

    – I dont’ think it would be hard to come up with a formula to figure out what that is, but clearly the fancy-stats guys would over-pay for the ideal RH/LH as its now in vogue

    – Some posters here cite the optimal RH/LH as gospel, with no consideration of the costs you bring up: they were happy to get rid of Jultz, they didn’t like Polak (both 3rd pairing RD’s in the Cup!), and they think we can get two of these expensive RH without recognizing the opportunity cost to do so.

    – We aren’t going to solve everything this off-season. There is a dearth of RD’s, I am sure they would like to get 2 RD’s ideally, but not: “it’s 2 RD’s or bust”, which is my impression of the consensus here.

    – Adding two top-4 D (one RHD, another on a shorter contract), makes sense because of all the other holes, and why you want to commit 2x 5×6 when your D is so bad that you cripple yourself by doing so, when all you need to do is add competent D regardless of hand (get one), and the improvement this team would make on back-end is really significant.

    – Be happy as heck to get 2 top-4 RD’s: but it’s not the be all, end all to improve this team a lot

    – We are trying to compete for playoffs, not make a run at the Cup. Resources are not infinite

  41. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    kinger_OIL,

    To quote Will Ferrell in Step Brothers, did we just become best friends?

  42. Woodguy says:

    supernova: Lowetide,

    I do have a dirt road to my house (acreage)!

    I would be interested I run a busy schedule, some days or weeks work better than others.

    Careful, he’s a real dink.

  43. Younger Oil says:

    I am going to be so incredibly disappointed if the Oilers draft Tkachuk.

    He is slow.

    Our LW depth is much better than any other forward position.

    He is playing on a line with two of the best players in junior hockey.

    Less than a third of his points are primary points at even strength.

    The person who he got many of his assists on (Dvorak) has a 27% shooting percentage, which unrealistically inflated his amd Tkachuk’s stats.

    I know I’m no scout, but there is a reason Dubois is ranked ahead of Tkachuk so many prospect lists.

    Can anyone think of a strike against Dubois that is as serious as any of those five against Tkachuk?

  44. Woodguy says:

    vinotintazo:
    So general concensus here was that Gubranson was a 3rd pair RHD, and now im hearing everyone saying he’s above average 2nd pair guy. So which one is right? if he’s an anbove Avg 2nd pair guy, why didnt we chase him? .

    RHD targets are getting slim. And Van payed dearly to get him.

    My opinion is that the Oilers are fine not getting him.

    Need to avoid Vatanen too imo.

  45. Woodguy says:


    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey

    Jim Benning says on 590 “they called us first” in Gudbranson-McCann trade talks. #Canucks #FlaPanthers

    Goddamn it Chia pick up the phone and call Benning 5 times a day!

  46. Chachi says:

    Younger Oil:

    Can anyone think of a strike against Dubois that is as serious as any of those five against Tkachuk?

    I don’t necessarily agree with this line of thought, but if you think the QMJHL is a weaker league than the OHL you might factor that in when comparing Tkachuk and Dubois.

  47. Ducey says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – Cash: you tried to help me out with my position on this in the last thread.Based on the study cited there is a 6 corsi event/game improvement when you have LH/RH across all the data (but the variance is significant, and the R squared not so strong as to be lock and load, and many instances where LD’s are better as RD’s and vice-versa: its not a truism, just on the whole better).

    – I dont’ think it would be hard to come up with a formula to figure out what that is, but clearly the fancy-stats guys would over-pay for the ideal RH/LH as its now in vogue

    – Some posters here cite the optimal RH/LH as gospel, with no consideration of the costs you bring up: they were happy to get rid of Jultz, they didn’t like Polak (both 3rd pairing RD’s in the Cup!), and they think we can get two of these expensive RH without recognizing the opportunity cost to do so.

    – We aren’t going to solve everything this off-season.There is a dearth of RD’s, I am sure they would like to get 2 RD’s ideally, but not: “it’s 2 RD’s or bust”, which is my impression of the consensus here.

    – Adding two top-4 D (one RHD, another on a shorter contract), makes sense because of all the other holes, and why you want to commit 2x 5×6 when your D is so bad that you cripple yourself by doing so, when all you need to do is add competent D regardless of hand (get one), and the improvement this team would make on back-end is really significant.

    – Be happy as heck to get 2 top-4 RD’s: but it’s not the be all, end all to improve this team a lot

    – We are trying to compete for playoffs, not make a run at the Cup. Resources are not infinite

    Agreed.

    6 Corsi events /60 is 2 Corsi events per pairing. If you are going to have one pairing of L/L that costs you about 2 shots a game (maybe less when you consider special teams). That doesn’t seem like something you unload good players for.

    I put it up yesterday but I think something like this would work fine (and the Oilers give up nothing to get it):

    Sekera – Demers
    Campell/ Yandel – Fayne
    Davidson – Klefbom
    Gryba

    If Klefbom is a top 4 player surely he can handle 3rd pairing right side minutes. It adds flexibility too. Oscar can play some left side minutes in the event of injury/ PP

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy:

    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey


    Jim Benning says on 590 “they called us first” in Gudbranson-McCann trade talks. #Canucks #FlaPanthers

    Goddamn it Chia pick up the phone and call Benning 5 times a day!

    LOL. now the Dys are the Magic Beans guys.

    “Hey Jim, I have an ’02 Civic with a blown engine. What’s that? Tanev and a 2nd…..well I was just going to ask you about your Kijiji posting about your Passat, but ok.”

  49. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:

    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey


    Jim Benning says on 590 “they called us first” in Gudbranson-McCann trade talks. #Canucks #FlaPanthers

    Goddamn it Chia pick up the phone and call Benning 5 times a day!

    What do they have that the Oilers would reasonably want?

    I guess they have Tanev and Hutton, but they are all sparkly after the IIHF win. Benning will not likely give them up.

  50. Caramel Batman says:

    Chachi:
    Caramel Batman,

    Makes sense if Tyler Johnson was Canadian….

    So that’s why no one is talking about him. That’s what you get for eyeballing things.

  51. highgloveside says:

    I agree LT, PC should try to make a trade for a RHD prior to the draft. If he can get a Barrie or a Vatanen or the even more dreamy Faulk, that sets the table for what they do at the draft. If they drop down to get the RHD, and Pouliot also goes in that deal, then they can possibly draft a LW or even trade that pick one more time for a 3RC like Coyle or Rackell. They could trade for a replacement LW like JVR, Krieder or Hoffman. They trade it to fill a RW hole with a Savard or Trouba.

    Point being, if they add a high end RHD before the draft, they have choices of how to fill the other hole at RHD, LW (if Pouliot is traded) or 3RC. They may prefer to spend their money on UFA’s in other positions leaving further trades at draft to fill the other holes. If they think Demers will cost too much as a UFA, they may trade for another RHD with their lower 1st round and sign free agents like Brouwer or Backes.

    If they sign that RHD before the draft there is also not as much pressure to add another top RHD which could force them into overpaying.

    Ultimately I want to see it cause life would be so much more exciting then!

  52. Rondo says:

    I remember people here thought Garth Snow was an idiot.

  53. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Younger Oil:
    I am going to be so incredibly disappointed if the Oilers draft Tkachuk.

    He is slow.

    Our LW depth is much better than any other forward position.

    He is playing on a line with two of the best players in junior hockey.

    Less than a third of his points are primary points at even strength.

    The person who he got many of his assists on (Dvorak) has a 27% shooting percentage, which unrealistically inflated his amd Tkachuk’s stats.

    I know I’m no scout, but there is a reason Dubois is ranked ahead of Tkachuk so many prospect lists.

    Can anyone think of a strike against Dubois that is as serious as any of those five against Tkachuk?

    Tkachuk injured his ankle May 8th and has been battling thru a high ankle sprain since then. Bruce eluded to it the other day in a write up for the Journal.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-scouting-report-oilers-draft-option-matthew-tkachuk-impressive-in-first-hand-look

    Tkachuk is exactly what the Oilers need and dont have. Look at the success Maroon had playing a similar game with McDavid. Dubois is a great prospect if there is a knock on him it’s he’s a bit of a perimeter player and a bit inconsistent. But it all comes down to fit and Tkachuk appears to be a better fit for McDavid and this team than Dubois.

  54. jonrmcleod says:

    su_dhillon: Are there still video rental stores?

    I don’t know what the libraries are like in other cities, but here in Halifax you can borrow practically any movie or TV series ever made.

  55. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Rondo:
    I remember people here thought Garth Snow was an idiot.

    He was.

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    Rondo:
    I remember people here thought Garth Snow was an idiot.

    If we’ve learnt anything as Oiler fans, it’s that smart people can do stupid things.

  57. kinger_OIL says:

    Ducey,

    – Yes! Another “contrarian”

    As for your formation:

    Sekera – Demers
    Campell/ Yandel – Fayne
    Davidson – Klefbom
    Gryba

    – I’d add Chara and a few other D that might be available shorter-term. This is so much easier to achieve, and realistic than betting the farm, and signing up a 2 5x6MM contracts.

    – With your D, no player that you are “hoping” for, Davey/Klef have the opportunity to make hay and move up, you can break in Nurse Griff, some of these pieces can be traded as things progress.

    – Plus this fixation on the maybe 2 or 3 RD available is just setting up so many here for disappointment, given the competition and opportunity costs, which is rarely acknowledged

  58. Water Fire says:

    Ducey: I noticed Jultz suddenly found a pretty wicked (if totally inaccurate) slapshot in PIT. He could have broken that out around here. He seems to spend lots of time on the left side with Letang on the PP. He is being set up for the one timer.

    Looks to have a bit more mojo. Otherwise he has looked the same by my eye. Giving opponents tons of room, Jultzing away with his stick. Played just 12 minutes yesterday, 10 min 5 x 5.

    I thought he was terrible. Poor decision making, constantly turned the puck over, sloppy passing, losing footraces and board battles, couldn’t hit the net. They wouldn’t pass to him much either. The world’s best tweener. He’ll be a superstar in Europe.

  59. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy:

    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey


    Jim Benning says on 590 “they called us first” in Gudbranson-McCann trade talks. #Canucks #FlaPanthers

    Goddamn it Chia pick up the phone and call Benning 5 times a day!

    Fayne for Tanev

  60. godot10 says:

    Chachi: I don’t necessarily agree with this line of thought, but if you think the QMJHL is a weaker league than the OHL you might factor that in when comparing Tkachuk and Dubois.

    More disappointments or busts in highly drafted (lottery-type) forwards (particularly wingers) coming out of the OHL than the QMJHL lately (since Crosby).

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JimmyV1965: What if Marchand makes it ahead of him? Oh ya. He’s great on the PK. Although Hall is in a different league 5×5. And Marchand is also great at taking penalties.

    Marchand is also great at drawing penalties. He was +1 in penalty differential this past season, while Hall was -3. Both took 26 minors, while Marchand drew 27, Hall 23.

    If I’m managing Canada the PK issue is a big one, although some of the guys who made the first cut will factor in there as well. What I want more than anything that isn’t there already, is a few natural wingers. Room for all of Hall, Marchand and Duchene in there AFAIC.

  62. godot10 says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Tkachuk injured his ankle May 8th and has been battling thru a high ankle sprain since then. Bruce eluded to it the other day in a write up for the Journal.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-scouting-report-oilers-draft-option-matthew-tkachuk-impressive-in-first-hand-look

    Tkachuk is exactly what the Oilers need and dont have. Look at the success Maroon had playing a similar game with McDavid. Dubois is a great prospect if there is a knock on him it’s he’s a bit of a perimeter player and a bit inconsistent. But it all comes down to fit and Tkachuk appears to be a better fit for McDavid and this team than Dubois.

    Maroon had an unsustainable shooting percentage/PDO with McDavid in a small sample size. The possession metrics with McDavid for Maroon in this small sample size was roughly 5% points worse with Maroon than with Pouliot or Hall.

    The perceived success was likely a mirage. McDavid was better, much better, with Pouliot than with Maroon. McDavid’s EV PPG went down with Maroon compared to Pouliot. Pouliot’s injury probably cost McDavid the Calder.

  63. G Money says:

    Ducey: 6 Corsi events /60 is 2 Corsi events per pairing. If you are going to have one pairing of L/L that costs you about 2 shots a game (maybe less when you consider special teams). That doesn’t seem like something you unload good players for.

    Wow. This may be the most fucking useless attempt at analyzing fancystats I’ve ever seen.

    Hey guys! Guess what! Ducey has figured out that we don’t need any defensemen at all!

    It turns out that 6% ISN’T the difference between a capable first pairing and a capable third pairing.

    No, it’s inconsequential. Just two shots against per 60.

    And since the delta between our best and worst defensemen on this team is about, oh, 6% … let’s just play with who we’ve got.

    Makes sense, right?

  64. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    Hey LT,

    Where is the article you posted about all of the trade down scenarios for the Oilers in this upcoming draft?
    Thanks!

  65. Chachi says:

    godot10: More disappointments or busts in highly drafted (lottery-type) forwards (particularly wingers) coming out of the OHL than the QMJHL lately (since Crosby).

    More players drafted in the top of the first round from the OHL might account for more disappointing picks, but yes, I get what you are saying.

  66. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Bruce eluded to it the other day

    Cuz elusion is what I do best.

  67. godot10 says:

    Matt Tkachuk is a slow winger whose offence won’t translate to the NHL because he will have to play the full 200 ft of ice in the NHL rather than 80 feet of ice with the London Knight.

    His offense is inflated by his age (he is one of the older players in the draft), and by the fact that he can conserve energy (since he plays an 80-foot game), and by the fact his linemates Dvorak and Marner take care of the defense and puck-transporting on the line, and are elite offensive player.

    Tkachuk is an elite player from the face off circles in, but in the NHL he will never be there, because he hasn’t learned to play in the defensive half of the ice. And being a poor skater, he will consume much more energy is this part of the game, that will take away from his offense, when he get below the faceoff circles.

    A slow skater cannot play McLellan’s place and chase game well.

    Matt Tkachuk is another Dave Hunter magical illusion.

  68. Chico21 says:

    Quite honestly I don”t see the major push to get a RH Defenceman. Klefbom is quite capable of playing on the RH side and has in the past. I don’t think the way a Defenceman shoots is as nearly as important as where they feel comfortable playing. If you can get Vantenan for say Poo and a pick then the right side doesn’t look nearly as bad.

  69. Ducey says:

    G Money: Wow.This may be the most fucking useless attempt at analyzing fancystats I’ve ever seen.

    Hey guys!Guess what!Ducey has figured out that we don’t need any defensemen at all!

    It turns out that 6% ISN’T the difference between a capable first pairing and a capable third pairing.

    No, it’s inconsequential.Just two shots against per 60.

    And since the delta between our best and worst defensemen on this team is about, oh, 6% … let’s just play with who we’ve got.

    Makes sense, right?

    Wow.

    The fact you clothe yourself in stats really is an attempt to mask some serious personality problems, eh?

    Perhaps I misunderstand the stats. Taking a contrary position is not a personal attack or you or your way of life.

    So relax.

  70. bendelson says:

    WG: Based on your comments yesterday, do you remain overconfident about SJ beating PIT in the finals? Follow-up question: Wanna bet on it?

    I’ll wager a flat of Stella, but given your perceived ‘extreme’ confidence in SJ, ask that you wager a flat of Stella AND 10 seconds of unimpeded access to your glorious salmon freezer in exchange.

    Deal?

  71. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    G Money: Wow.This may be the most fucking useless attempt at analyzing fancystats I’ve ever seen.

    Hey guys!Guess what!Ducey has figured out that we don’t need any defensemen at all!

    It turns out that 6% ISN’T the difference between a capable first pairing and a capable third pairing.

    G Money: Wow.This may be the most fucking useless attempt at analyzing fancystats I’ve ever seen.

    Hey guys!Guess what!Ducey has figured out that we don’t need any defensemen at all!

    It turns out that 6% ISN’T the difference between a capable first pairing and a capable third pairing.

    No, it’s inconsequential.Just two shots against per 60.

    And since the delta between our best and worst defensemen on this team is about, oh, 6% … let’s just play with who we’ve got.

    Makes sense, right?

    No, it’s inconsequential.Just two shots against per 60.

    And since the delta between our best and worst defensemen on this team is about, oh, 6% … let’s just play with who we’ve got.

    Makes sense, right?

    I’ve got the probability of you ever playing an actual hockey game at 0.0001%. Sound about right?

  72. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    It’s a tough question, because the problem for the Oilers is that they are so choc a bloc in good left defensemen that “John Demers” has basically no value to the Oilers at almost any realistic price.

    The best you’d hope to get out of him is if you could get him for dirt cheap, cap savings relative to Klefbom or Davidson, and then use one of the latter two as a trading chip (Sekera has an NMC so he’s here regardless) to try and shore up your still-awful right side.

    Now some of the folks on here who insist on holding to their opinion regardless of what the evidence may show argue that we shouldn’t be looking at RHD because they may be too expensive.

    In one sense they are correct, because RHD will be more expensive, not only because teams already likely recognize the value of L/R pairings (or rather, the loss of relative effectiveness of a same handed pairing) and bid them up, but because there are fewer RHD than LHD. So high demand and low supply means … sell Petry for pennies!

    So, you have to move (and spend) heaven and earth to get one or two good RHD. No choice. Anything else means a repeat of the suckage of this year.

    If we can’t get any good righties, we might actually be best off just to stick with what we have. Which is a terrible defense. But at least it won’t cost any assets up front.

    The worst case scenario, which Kinger et al are advocating, is to trade assets away to bring in a Top 4 leftie or two, then slot them (or their existing partner) in on the wrong side, and then watch them play like a bottom pair defensemen.

    We know this to be true because that’s exactly what happens with our existing defensemen. Our good lefties, when playing left, are capable top/2/3 pair defensemen, but when paired together, they are bottom pair calibre … the only exception being Davidson who actually already is our bottom pair guy.

    The only situation in which it makes sense to trade for a leftie is if that leftie is a top of the charts guy like Subban or OEL. Basically, someone who you can and will rebuild your entire defense around.

    Then you get him and you move all the other parts around as best you can to accommodate.

    I just don’t see that happening though.

  73. Snowman says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    This is a hilariously ironic comment on many levels.

    Pointless, but hilariously ironic all the same.

  74. G Money says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Ah, that one again. Right up there with “watch the game!”. Now it’s “play the game!”.

    Interestingly, the people I’ve chatted with in person who’ve played at a fairly high level of hockey (WHL) are some of the least knowledgeable I’ve ever met about the mechanics of the game.

    Sort of explains PJ Stock and Nick Kypreos, doesn’t it?

    But I can play that game too.

    Let me try: “I’ve got the probability of you graduating high school at 0.0001%. Sound about right?”

  75. Магия 10 says:

    LT: “I don’t think Taylor Hall makes the big team, either. Not being critical of either man, and do believe both belong on their respective teams”

    Never though I’d see the day, but it’s actually nice to see the outside being more optimistic than the local eyes. Sportsnet has predictions up today for both teams:

    Damian Cox: “the guess here is that the final four forwards added will be the versatile O’Reilly, Marchand, Hall and Duchene, a veteran of the 2014 Sochi team.

    Mark Spector: “If McDavid is the No. 1 centre, Monahan the No. 2 and Couturier the No. 4, that leaves a third-line centre spot. We’ll fill that spot with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who gets the nod here”

  76. Caramel Batman says:

    Chico21:
    Quite honestly I don”t see the major push to get a RH Defenceman. Klefbom is quite capable of playingon the RH side and has in the past. I don’t think the way a Defenceman shoots is as nearly as important as where they feel comfortable playing. If you can get Vantenan for say Poo and a pick then the right side doesn’t look nearly as bad.

    It’s almost as if you haven’t read any of the comments but have an opinion anyway.

  77. G Money says:

    Ducey: The fact you clothe yourself in stats really is an attempt to mask some serious personality problems, eh?

    Perhaps I misunderstand the stats. Taking a contrary position is not a personal attack or you or your way of life.

    Hilarious.

    Your attempt at analyzing stats was horrible. It just was. Literally one of the worst I’ve seen, and I said so, in no uncertain terms.

    This is of course, a different statement from calling you fucking useless, which is not at all what I did – but it’s not clear you understand the difference.

    But the people who want to / try to / need to / have to bring ‘personality’ issues and personal attacks into it are you and Kilty, not me.

  78. Магия 10 says:

    LT: “I am sure we can all agree the Oilers have a pretty nice LH depth chart on defense. Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart and we will end it at Jordan Oesterle. The right side? I count Mark Fayne, with Eric Gryba signable but similar to MF”

    After all the talk about whether or not to gut forward depth for some D, it’s nice to see a reminder that moving some LHD+ for the right RHD could restore a lot of balance.

  79. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman: So that’s why no one is talking about him.That’s what you get for eyeballing things.

    Yeah it is an easy error to make; he is a hell of a good player though.

  80. jonrmcleod says:

    godot10,

    I don’t know how else to contact you, so I’ll do it here. You made a comment about Chiarelli’s end of season press conference that I’d like to quote in an upcoming post. I’m wondering if you’d be OK with that. If you’d like, you can email me at jonrmcleod@gmail.com.

  81. prairieschooner says:

    I wonder where the Oilers would be if we had selected Ryan Murray rather than Yakupov…..probably without Connor Mc David

  82. G Money says:

    Магия 10: After all the talk about whether or not to gut forward depth for some D, it’s nice to see a reminder that moving some LHD+ for the right RHD could restore a lot of balance.

    Stop trying to reign in this discussion! Your rain of terror must end!!

  83. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    G Money:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Ah, that one again.Right up there with “watch the game!”.Now it’s “play the game!”.

    Interestingly, the people I’ve chatted with in person who’ve played at a fairly high level of hockey (WHL) are some of the least knowledgeable I’ve ever met about the mechanics of the game.

    Sort of explains PJ Stock and Nick Kypreos, doesn’t it?

    But I can play that game too.

    Let me try: “I’ve got the probability of you graduating high school at 0.0001%. Sound about right?”

    Weak and predictable. Frankly, I expected more.

  84. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: The only situation in which it makes sense to trade for a leftie is if that leftie is a top of the charts guy like Subban or OEL. Basically, someone who you can and will rebuild your entire defense around.

    I know you know Subban is a righty, so I’ll assume you mentioned him as an example of the second part of your statement, a type of guy you rebuild your defence around. But he is an unfortunate example in the current discussion. OEL or Keith, maybe?

  85. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Cuz elusion is what I do best.

    Personally I enjoyed your solo albums “Euse Eur Elusion” 1 and 2.

  86. PaperKurtRussell says:

    I think Hall deserves to make the team based on his overall body of work, and his play on the TOP LINE in the past 2 gold medal teams. My only concern would be that his role would not be well defined. On the big team, is he on the top line? Arguably not. Doesn’t play on the PK, hasn’t torn it up on the PP recently. He’s a monster at 5×5, so hopefully they can see that, but I think the special teams play may keep him off. Always a tough choice for final cuts…

    Nuge should make the other team. He’s got a longer track-record than most of the other candidates if we use Lowetide’s industry-leading gold standard of RE going back 3 years. 🙂

  87. Klima's_Bucket says:

    “I’ll be perfectly honest with you,” he says. “We won a Stanley Cup in Boston and we didn’t use analytics.” Jim Benning to Ed Willes of The Province

  88. RexLibris says:

    If I posted a link to a picture of kittens sitting on cupcakes riding rainbows, would it help improve everyone’s mood?

  89. Truth says:

    RexLibris:
    If I posted a link to a picture of kittens sitting on cupcakes riding rainbows, would it help improve everyone’s mood?

    I was wondering how everyone was in such a bad mood with LT’s best GIF on the same page. If that doesn’t lift everybody’s spirits I don’t know what will.

  90. Aron_S says:

    Магия 10,

    This is the kind of deal I’m onside with. The Paajarvi + 2nd for Perron type of trade to address RHD. Nurse + 2nd for a bonafide, possibly overpaid Top4 RHD on a cap strapped team.

    Unicorns. Make it happen, Chia. None of this Reinhart, Gudbranson nonsense.

  91. godot10 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    godot10,

    I don’t know how else to contact you, so I’ll do it here. You made a comment about Chiarelli’s end of season press conference that I’d like to quote in an upcoming post. I’m wondering if you’d be OK with that. If you’d like, you can email me at jonrmcleod@gmail.com.

    I sent you an e-mail with my godot10 e-mail address, which is probably fairly easy to guess.

  92. RexLibris says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    “I’ll be perfectly honest with you,” he says. “We won a Stanley Cup in Boston and we didn’t use analytics.” Jim Benning to Ed Willes of The Province

    Saw that this morning.

    I’m perplexed by Chiarelli.

    He seems to be an intelligent manager who wants to take in relevant information and he knows enough not to shoot his mouth off at every opportunity, yet he was surrounded (willingly or not, I can’t tell) by dullards and imbeciles in Boston.

  93. bendelson says:

    RexLibris:
    If I posted a link to a picture of kittens sitting on cupcakes riding rainbows, would it help improve everyone’s mood?

    I’ve got the probability at 0.0001%. Sound about right?

  94. Магия 10 says:

    RexLibris:
    If I posted a link to a picture of kittens sitting on cupcakes riding rainbows, would it help improve everyone’s mood?

    Get back into kitchen Rex:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiZoD723cao

  95. kinger_OIL says:

    – G: you are saying that if we only get 1 RHD, we shouldn’t bother trying to upgrade the LHD?

    – Getting a Campbell or Yandle along with one RHD, this team isn’t way better on the back-end?

    – That doesn’t make sense :

    This is what you said: “If we can’t get any good righties, we might actually be best off just to stick with what we have”

    – Anyway, I’m pretty sure they won’t get 2 RHD’s, it will be 1 and 1, and I’m pretty sure that sub-optimal formation, which most playoff teams have, will improve the team greatly.

    – And lots of LD’s play off-side, and thrive. What’s true generally is not true in all instances.

  96. "Steve Smith" says:

    bendelson: I’ve got the probability at 0.0001%.Sound about right?

    The probability that you can go fuck yourself is appreciably higher than that.

    (For any newbies to whom that sounds harsh, rest assured that I’m just eluding an old dynamic.)

  97. frjohnk says:

    godot10: I sent you an e-mail with my godot10 e-mail address, which is probably fairly easy to guess.

    whythefuckdidoilershaveadementorcoaching@hotmail.com

    Am I close?

  98. Doug McLachlan says:

    Woodguy:

    Chris Nichols
    ‏@NicholsOnHockey


    Jim Benning says on 590 “they called us first” in Gudbranson-McCann trade talks. #Canucks #FlaPanthers

    Goddamn it Chia pick up the phone and call Benning 5 times a day!

    Given that Florida was the one reaching out we may be comforted that Chia (who if you are looking to deal a RHD has to be the first person you call) did not bite on Gudbranson. The question was he simply out-bid by Vancouver or was this the case of an improved assessment of his actual value?

  99. godot10 says:

    Crosby is the main reason Hall should be on the World Cup team. Crosby has pretty much sucked offensively with pretty much everyone they’ve tried playing with him until they put Hall with him at last year’s World Championship.

  100. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Cuz elusion is what I do best.

    Like that word, “elusion” – to refer to something while concealing it.

  101. Water Fire says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I asked this question in a thread yesterday late in the day, didn’t get a responce, so I’ll try again.

    For my LHD/RHD knowledgeable folks:

    I understand the value in having 3 of each in the top six, and I agree it’s optimal.But that said, I believe most teams have clued into this recently (surely not all, but more than half).Because of this I believe RHD will or have become more expensive to acquire than LHD, all things being equal.

    On that front, assuming we can only sign one guy etc. etc., if there were twins in the league that were exactly the same player (Jason Demers and John Demers) and the only difference between the two was handedness, at what price point would you take LHD John over RHD Jason?

    Assuming both require a 5 year deal, and Jason requires $5.5 million/year, how much cheaper would John have to be in order for him to be the more effective signing, given that he will require that one of our top 4D pairs will have two lefties on it?

    Would you rather have a $3million lefty than a $5.5million righty, assuming they are otherwise identical? Is it $5.25 million?Is it never?

    Where does the value tip the scale?

    One way to look at this debate is to ask why do all teams in the league and Teams Canada use RHD if they can? Are they just dense and don’t realize it doesn’t matter?

    Smart teams wouldn’t play an inferior player to keep handedness, but if you can get balance you take it. I don’t think the cost difference is enough that it’s a prohibitive cap consideration. Sometimes you have to pay some to get a better situation.

    Speaking of RHD, I think Ben Lovejoy would make a great 3 pairing right hander. He looked good to me yesterday, fast and doesn’t harm the puck.

  102. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Wanted to see if WG was paying attention. Now ya went and spoiled it!!!

  103. bendelson says:

    “Steve Smith”: The probability that you can go fuck yourself is appreciably higher than that.

    (For any newbies to whom that sounds harsh, rest assured that I’m just eluding an old dynamic.)

    Seriously, Steve?
    I find your qualification surprising, a little offensive and largely unnecessary.
    Have you completely lost your way?
    Since when does a top gunn like yourself feel the need to explain your comments to the masses?

  104. Yeti says:

    G Money: Your attempt at analyzing stats was horrible. It just was. Literally one of the worst I’ve seen, and I said so, in no uncertain terms.

    Yes, but sometimes its better not too. For everyone’s sake.

  105. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Water Fire: One way to look at this debate is to ask why do all teams in the league and Teams Canada use RHD if they can? Are they just dense and don’t realize it doesn’t matter?

    Smart teams wouldn’t play an inferior player to keep handedness, but if you can get balance you take it. I don’t think the cost difference is enough that it’s a prohibitive cap consideration. Sometimes you have to pay some to get a better situation.

    I’m not sure we’re on the same page here.

    I think it does matter. I think we’ve proven statistically that it does. I think the fact that guys like Mike Babcock likewise place a premium on it backs the stats up nicely. I’m not sure there is any room to argue on it.

    What I’m trying establish is that there must be a tipping point where it is no longer worth it to pursue the RHD vs. playing an LHD on the wrong side (or maybe there isn’t). Hence, using the example of Jason Demers and the fictional left handed version John Demers.

    Given that we live in a cap world, there MUST be a point where it is better to pursue a LHD free agent to play on the off side vs. a RHD free agent.

    Not saying we should do it. Not saying RHD isn’t optimal, it obviously is. Put me down in the sign Jason Demers camp.

    What we’re doing here, though, is having a discussion that exists fundamentally in the world and language of economics. As such, I think we need to recognize the existence of parameters like supply/demand, or perhaps more appropriately, its less famous cousin, marginal utility.

    I’m just trying to advance the conversation. I tend to find these boards offer fantastic insight, but also tend to ignore reality. “Sign Jason Demers” and “Get a RHD” tend to ignore the follow up questions of “at what cost?” and “as opposed to what?”.

    So when you say:

    “Smart teams wouldn’t play an inferior player to keep handedness, but if you can get balance you take it.”

    I’d respond with “yes, generally that’s true, but what exactly is the premium we should be paying a guy in the market for handedness, all things being equal”. or if I was being snarky I’d say “I’m sure I could get Jason Demers if I offered him $10 million per year, but is that better than getting Brian Campbell for $4 million?”

    GMoney, in his very nice post above (thank you) seemed to be leaning more towards the “there is no amount of discount worth running two LHD” camp. Which is interesting. I’m not there yet, but if people throw enough info my way I’m sure I could get there.

  106. Chachi says:

    bendelson: Seriously, Steve?
    I find your qualification surprising, a little offensive and largely unnecessary.
    Have you completely lost your way?
    Since when does a top gunn like yourself feel the need the explain your comments to the masses?

    I blame it on the pansification of Lowetide. This is just so wrong. #MakeLowetideGreatAgain!

  107. dustrock says:

    G Money,

    you’re kicking ass and chewing bubble gum today, hey?

    Hopefully you’re not out of gum.

  108. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – Cash seriously: we are man-crushing here: marginal utility, supply constraints, costs: reality, yes!

  109. russ99 says:

    As for RHD/LHD, if we can’t get more than one of our targets, why not give Nurse or Reinhart a half-season adjusting to his off-hand side in Bakersfield?

    They’re both young enough where they could adapt.

  110. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Worst thing about conversations on the internet is the complete inability to high five.

  111. Water Fire says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m not sure we’re on the same page here.

    I think it does matter.I think we’ve proven statistically that it does.I think the fact that guys like Mike Babcock likewise place a premium on it backs the stats up nicely.I’m not sure there is any room to argue on it.

    What I’m trying establish is that there must be a tipping point where it is no longer worth it to pursue the RHD vs. playing an LHD on the wrong side (or maybe there isn’t).Hence, using the example of Jason Demers and the fictional left handed version John Demers.

    Given that we live in a cap world, there MUST be a point where it is better to pursue a LHD free agent to play on the off side vs. a RHD free agent.

    Not saying we should do it.Not saying RHD isn’t optimal, it obviously is.Put me down in the sign Jason Demers camp.

    What we’re doing here, though, is having a discussion that exists fundamentally in the world and language of economics.As such, I think we need to recognize the existence of parameters like supply/demand, or perhaps more appropriately, its less famous cousin, marginal utility.

    I’m just trying to advance the conversation.I tend to find these boards offer fantastic insight, but also tend to ignore reality.“Sign Jason Demers” and “Get a RHD” tend to ignore the follow up questions of “at what cost?” and “as opposed to what?”.

    So when you say:

    “Smart teams wouldn’t play an inferior player to keep handedness, but if you can get balance you take it.”

    I’d respond with “yes, generally that’s true, but what exactly is the premium we should be paying a guy in the market for handedness, all things being equal”.or if I was being snarky I’d say “I’m sure I could get Jason Demers if I offered him $10 million per year, but is that better than getting Brian Campbell for $4 million?”

    GMoney, in his very nice post above (thank you) seemed to be leaning more towards the “there is no amount of discount worth running two LHD” camp.Which is interesting.I’m not there yet, but if people throw enough info my way I’m sure I could get there.

    I haven’t noticed a premium being paid to righties. It seems more player rep and market conditions. I’d pay extra for handedness all things being equal, 10-15% say. I think you can find that elsewhere in the roster, such as bottom 6 wingers. Good defensemen are critical, giving them the best conditions to play in is ideal.

  112. G Money says:

    Yeti: Yes, but sometimes its better not too. For everyone’s sake.

    Generally true. However, that particular piece of ‘analysis’ has been posted multiple times now. The first response (a dozen threads or so ago) I made to it was quite polite, and quite detailed in its explanation (as I’m inclined). No effect. Perhaps it wasn’t read, but that’s not something I control.

    But at some point, we have to call out the repetitively bad analyses lest they become accepted as good through repetition.

    You can certainly accuse me of being unnecessarily abrasive in doing so, but I make no claims to sainthood in that regard!

    dustrock,

    Heh heh, it’s all fun and games until you trip over a log and lose an eye!

  113. Магия 10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    kinger_OIL,

    Worst thing about conversations on the internet is the complete inability to high five.

    (。◕‿◕。) ╝╚ (。◕‿◕。)

  114. Lowetide says:

    It is always good to have a strong debate on things, and certainly one has every right to defend views or point out disagreements with fervor. I encourage you to respect each other and remind all that bullying of any kind is verboten.

  115. stush18 says:

    Lowetide:
    It is always good to have a strong debate on things, and certainly one has every right to defend views or point out disagreements with fervor. I encourage you to respect each other and remind all that bullying of any kind is verboten.

    Nerd.

  116. Doug McLachlan says:

    Water Fire,

    As to whether there is a premium paid to right handed vs left handed defensemen may I direct your attention to E.Gudbranson and J.Cowen.

    Now while I think everyone agrees here that Benning overpaid for Gudbranson’s grit/60 but as Cowen (with almost an identical resume – big d-man, bad possession stats, negligible offense but a penchant for “hard hitting” defense) is set to become a UFA on July 1st the thinking must be that Gudbranson is a superior prize. Some of that are intangibles and some of that has to be handedness.

    Full disclosure the point is made far better than I by Canucks Army poster Jeff Veillette in his hot take of the EG trade:

    http://canucksarmy.com/2016/5/26/asset-managment-and-defensive-defencemen

  117. Yeti says:

    G Money: You can certainly accuse me of being unnecessarily abrasive in doing so, but I make no claims to sainthood in that regard!

    Just as well, because I’d always considered you more rishi than saint.

  118. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL: – G: you are saying that if we only get 1 RHD, we shouldn’t bother trying to upgrade the LHD?

    – Getting a Campbell or Yandle along with one RHD, this team isn’t way better on the back-end?

    – That doesn’t make sense :

    This is what you said: “If we can’t get any good righties, we might actually be best off just to stick with what we have”

    Unless Campbell or Yandle have a history of playing off hand and playing it well, no, we won’t be better off. What the hand data we have shows is that Top 4 D playing off hand are about as effective as a bottom pairing D playing on hand.

    We certainly know that to be true of Klefbom and Sekera, who play at a 3rd pairing level when paired even with high quality lefties, and at a top pairing level even when paired with poor quality righties.

    How much will it cost us to bring in one of those guys you speak of and have them perform at a third pairing level?

    Answer: it will cost a lot, and it won’t improve the team defense by much.

    You’re the one worry about the economics of the transaction, without recognizing that this is all about the economics.

    Pay through the nose for a quality RHD, but it’s worth it because the increase in D effectiveness is multiplicative. You get a positive return almost no matter what.

    Or pay (a little less) through the nose to get a quality LHD, and then watch him sink to bottom pairing levels and wonder what the hell went wrong, and how could we possibly have paid that much for such a poor return.

    Rather than argue that handedness doesn’t matter, for which you have NO evidence for and lots of evidence against, perhaps your effort would be better served looking for some quality UFA or trade LHD targets who have a history of effectively playing on their offside.

    If you can find one of those – and it won’t be easy – but if you can, that’s gold as far as the Oilers are concerned.

    This is a serious question: have you looked at Yandle or Campbell’s history? Do either of them have a history of success playing on their off side? The one area either would help tremendously is on the powerplay. If either can step in and not have their handedness cause problems at even strength, then they very much should be legitimate targets.

  119. Professor Q says:

    godot10:
    Crosby is the main reason Hall should be on the World Cup team.Crosby has pretty much sucked offensively with pretty much everyone they’ve tried playing with him until they put Hall with him at last year’s World Championship.

    Don’t forget Eberle!

    But yeah. Maybe if they had two Canadian Ovechkins they could overlook Hall…

  120. Water Fire says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Water Fire,

    As to whether there is a premium paid to right handed vs left handed defensemen may I direct your attention to E.Gudbranson and J.Cowen.

    Now while I think everyone agrees here that Benning overpaid for Gudbranson’s grit/60 but as Cowen (with almost an identical resume – big d-man, bad possession stats, negligible offense but a penchant for “hard hitting” defense) is set to become a UFA on July 1st the thinking must be that Gudbranson is a superior prize.Some of that are intangibles and some of that has to be handedness.

    Full disclosure the point is made far better than I by Canucks Army poster Jeff Veillette in his hot take of the EG trade:

    http://canucksarmy.com/2016/5/26/asset-managment-and-defensive-defencemen

    I would say that Gudbranson’s pedigree and tough guy rep are what “no stats” Benning bit on. Needs his Chara, the game will leave him in the dust.

  121. Woodguy says:

    bendelson:
    WG:Based on your comments yesterday, do you remain overconfident about SJ beating PIT in the finals?Follow-up question:Wanna bet on it?

    I’ll wager a flat of Stella, but given your perceived ‘extreme’ confidence in SJ, ask that you wager a flat of Stella AND 10 seconds of unimpeded access to your glorious salmon freezer in exchange.

    Deal?

    I’m down.

    Book it!

  122. Chachi says:

    “Glorious Salmon Freezer” sounds a little dirty.

  123. Магия 10 says:

    NUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE

  124. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Wanted to see if WG was paying attention.Now ya went and spoiled it!!!

    I pay for many things.

    Attention is not among them.

  125. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    You have an entire freezer dedicated to salmon? Damn!

    What other freezers do you have? Beef I assume is a must. Pork because on balance I’d have to say the pig is the most delicious of animals.

    Do you have a single poultry freezer, or one for each of the major types of edible birds?

    And what about game? I have a hunter friend who has a moose freezer, so it would be a little bit embarrassing if you didn’t have one of those.

    And do you have a dedicated structure to house all these freezers, or just a wing on your house?

  126. Ducey says:

    G Money: Generally true. However, that particular piece of ‘analysis’ has been posted multiple times now.The first response (a dozen threads or so ago) I made to it was quite polite, and quite detailed in its explanation (as I’m inclined).No effect.Perhaps it wasn’t read, but that’s not something I control.

    But at some point, we have to call out the repetitively bad analyses lest they become accepted as good through repetition.

    You can certainly accuse me of being unnecessarily abrasive in doing so, but I make no claims to sainthood in that regard!

    dustrock,

    Heh heh, it’s all fun and games until you trip over a log and lose an eye!

    I am glad you feel the necessity to correct the internet.

    As we both have to get along here, please try and not be a jerk.

    Perhaps it would be possible, without being a dick, to express your opinion of what the real effect of the alleged fact

    that an unsuitably handed defenseman must have a CorsiRel that is greater than or equal to 6.2 Corsi events / 60 better than a suitably handed alternative in order to be the better option to pair with a partner-less defenseman on the roster

    There are only 30 or so shots given up a game. Maybe 50 Corsi events against. A defenceman who plays 20 minutes would only be on the ice for 1/3 of these on average) assuming he plays 20 minutes). That’s 16 Corsi events against on average. Presumably the Corsi for is the same.

    How many more Corgis is Klefbom going to give up/ not have offensively if he moved the right side? Whats the actual shot total? And what is the actual goal total assuming the same level of goaltending LH and RH and on both teams?

    It has to be small in practical terms.

    I have trouble believing that Kelfbom playing third pairing on the right side is going to be worse Corsi wise than he would be in the second pairing on the left side. And if he is, that this will be significant. And that is the point.

    If you are going to be a dick, then don’t bother.

  127. jimmers2 says:

    Hall and Nuge are apparently not added to the final Team Canada roster

    http://www.hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/team-canada/men/world-cup/2016/schedule-results/CAN-Roster

  128. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Giroux and Thornton in, Hall and Perry out. Good decisions.

  129. Магия 10 says:

    Friedman says Babcock left potential D off Team Canada today due to handedness.

  130. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    jimmers2:
    Hall and Nuge are apparently not added to the final Team Canada roster

    http://www.hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/team-canada/men/world-cup/2016/schedule-results/CAN-Roster

    Nuge was in, Hall not.

  131. The Hermit says:

    jimmers2,

    Nuge is on the North American 23 and under team.

  132. jimmers2 says:

    The Hermit,

    Thanks! I was wondering why I see no mention on the Team Canada roster. I somehow keep forgetting that there is an Amalgamated Ninja Young Guns All Star team.

  133. godot10 says:

    Магия 10:
    Friedman says Babcock left potential D off Team Canada today due to handedness.

    Canada has a lot of good defensemen. Babcock is not choosing a mediocre defensemen over a good defensemen because of handedness. He is choosing a good defensemen over another good defensemen.

    No Eastern Conference defensemen on Team Canada.

  134. Магия 10 says:

    Obviously going to be rooting for 97 and 93 and friends. Hope Matt Murray is still hot.

  135. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    I have a kitchen fridge, no fish.

    I have a basement fridge, freezer full of fish. (mostly Salmon – Chinook and Coho, but also Halibut, Ling cod and Red Snapper)

    Next to that I have a stand up freezer that is about half full of fish.

    I also have about a case and half of smoked salmon (all Chinook) that is canned.

    For the last 9 years I”ve gone to Haida Gwait to a floating barge / resort that you get to via Sikorski helicopter from Sandspit.

    Usually come home with over 100lbs of dressed fish and send a couple Chinook to a cannery to be smoked and canned.

    It piles up after a while.

  136. godot10 says:

    Магия 10:
    Obviously going to be rooting for 97 and 93 and friends. Hope Matt Murray is still hot.

    I’m breaking in my #TeamRalph hashtag.

  137. stephen sheps says:

    In what world is Jake Muzzin a better player than P.K?

    I understand the handedness debate as well as the built-in chemistry/connection between Muzzin and Doughty but this really does boggle the mind.

    I’m thrilled for Jumbo, but really disappointed for Hall.

    Truthfully I think I will be cheering for the U23 team and Finland will remain my number 2.

    Biggest surprise for me was actually Tyler Johnson not making team USA.

  138. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    2 more shots a game is 13 more goals against a year assuming .917 SV%

    Are you sure it’s not a big deal?

  139. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Taylor Hall is a good player but not Top 25 player in the NHL. Better players like Couture and Perry were left off. Brad Marchand scored 37 goals and is more of a reliable player. But here’s why in a nutshell he didnt make it:

    Taylor Hall is an elite skater with a lot of determination but has questionable decision making on the ice. He makes several bad decisions every single game which fans often overlook due to his athleticism and his hard work and due to the fact he has been the team’s most effective point getter. He wont score you big goals, he will make many ill advised passes, he will take too many low percentage shots, he attempts too many one on two’s and he will pout when things arent going well. He does get points based on his speed and the volume of shots he takes however his game would not translate in the playoffs where streaky perimeter shooters like him are easy to shut down. Better suited in a complimentary role like a Phil Kessel who he has often been compared to instead of the go to guy. Note: Kessel didnt make a weaker Team USA.

    Bottom line, Taylor Hall is a frustrating player to watch. He is a nice energetic player with a lot of skill but just cant be trusted in either zone on a regular basis or when the game is on the line. Nowhere near a complete hockey player he is just a streaky offensive player who relies on his speed too much instead of being patient to let plays develop. If that is the best player on your team then your team is in trouble as he has zero intangibles. Despite diehard fans trying their best to justify him as an elite player the reality is he is not a top 25 player in the league as shown once again by him being excluded from Team Canada as they selected players with a better overall game. You can’t blame the Oilers mismanagement in the past for him not making it as he has had the chance to showcase his overall game with Team Canada a couple of times now and failed to make enough of an impression.

    Note to upset Oilers fans:

    Being the best player on the worst team doesnt add credibility it takes away from it as there are so many holes in his game that drive coaches crazy that are overlooked because of his offensive production. You see him getting pts and “pushing the river” other people see him as a puck hog who doesnt use his teammates well and makes bad decisions. This is reality no matter how you try to slice it with a graph or piechart. Boston traded away Kessel years ago who was their top scorer and they won the Cup the next year. Edmonton while further away then Boston should consider the same. Streaky one dimensional scorers are replaceable, top pairing defencemen are not. This Team Canada snub yet again should be a wake up call to Oil fans that Hall isnt as good as they think he is. Unless they think they are smarter then the entire Hockey Canada brass who have played and coached at the highest level in the world….

  140. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    G: just real simple. Take Yandle’s CF%:

    Yandle(L) – Klein (R) 50.9%
    Yandle(L) – Boyle (L) 53.5%

    – WTF! L L better than R L?

    McDonaugh (L) – Yandle(L) 65%
    McDonaugh (L) – Klein (R) 49.3%

    – see above

    – Now I don’t know here cases which ones play their off-wing (not sure how you find that info), but clearly two L’s can play together and do fine, in many cases

    – You get Yandle (for instance) and pair him with Klef (for instance), because Yandle seems to do ok when paired with some other L D’s, and in small minutes Klef and Sek were 50%

    – One can’t be blinded with the finding that LH-RH is optimal, and say that good D become bad D when paired with same sided winger as you have.

    – Many top-4 L D play well with another L D, and they don’t become 3rd line D becasue they are playing with another D that shoots the same.

    – And that’s the point: find a L D that does fine with another L D, and you are 90% optimized for 80% of cost (I’m making up this figure)

    – You make is seem that there is no sense at all in having 2 L play together because they will fall off a cliff. This is clearly not the case.

    – The mistake you’ve made in your conclusion is that just becasue LD/RD is optimal, you can’t/won’t accept a sub-optimal becasue it doesn’t work. But it does and there is ample proof in practice.

  141. LadiesloveSmid says:

    when did Boyle start shooting left?

  142. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Marchand had 42 points last year, is that relevant? Or is he a 37 goal scorer now?

    Bottom line: grit, intensity, truculence, regina boy, hockey blood lines, visually better, sniffing glue

  143. Professor Q says:

    Really odd decisions, it seems.

    No Hall, especially after his recent IIHF performance?

    No Subban?

    Aya.

  144. Rondo says:

    stephen sheps,

    They are building a team not an All Star team. PK Subban style is already on the team. Hall is just not an elite 200 ft player, and that what was needed for him to be on the team.

  145. kevin says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    2 more shots a game is 13 more goals against a year assuming .917 SV%

    Are you sure it’s not a big deal?

    Is it 2 shots on goal, or 2 shots toward the goal, or does it matter?

  146. Professor Q says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Taylor Hall finished 23rd in points after being Top 5 to Top 10 most of the year.

    That’s Top 25+ if you ask me…

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/jason-gregor-taylor-hall-deserves-spot-on-canadas-world-cup-of-hockey-roster

  147. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL: G: just real simple. Take Yandle’s CF%:

    Yandle(L) – Klein (R) 50.9%
    Yandle(L) – Boyle (L) 53.5%

    Nice cherry pick, there Kinger. Yandle has played a total of 3500 seconds with lefties McDonagh and Staal. Yes, he did very well with both of them.

    (which happens)

    Which leads to the question, if that was such a good combo, why did he then play more than 80,000 seconds (yes, you read that right) with right handed shooters?

    Boyle is a rightie by the way.

    Lefties: 52 min with McDonagh, 7 min with M Staal.

    Righties: 369 min with Girardi, 428 min with Klein, 234 min with McIlrath, and 305 min with Boyle. (He was above 50% CF% with everyone but Girardi)

    If that screams to you that he can play on his off side … oh boy.

  148. Professor Q says:

    Rondo,

    Yes he is.

  149. Woodguy says:

    kevin: Is it 2 shots on goal, or 2 shots toward the goal, or does it matter?

    That matters.

    I assumed when Ducey mentioned 2 shots per game he figured it out correctly, but I didn’t check.

  150. Wolfie says:

    Well it looks like I’ll be cheering for team NA. I understand loads of talent will be left off Team Canada’s roster…. But leaving Hall at home is inexcusable.

  151. G Money says:

    No Subban or Hall on Team Canada.

    Kessel left off Team USA.

    It is literally possible that Team USA will be last in this tournament.

    Team N. America might very well finish third (and I’ll be cheering for them to beat both of their older N American counterparts).

    This has been your seemingly daily reminder that "as smart as an NHL exec" is a low bar.— Emmanuel Perry (@MannyElk) 27 May 2016

  152. Snowman says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Yeah Hall makes such bad decisions he played the most and also the last minute in a gold medal game at worlds…

    Terrible decision making… can’t be trusted… energetic player…

    two time memorial cup mvp… two time world champion….0.91 ppg career… third most productive player 5×5 in the NHL over the last 4 years…

  153. Rondo says:

    Wolfie,

    Marchant and Giroux took Hall’s spot

  154. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    I presume a classic case of enjoying the process more than the result.

  155. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo,

    I get that, I do w.r.t Hall.
    Counterpoint – Hall is one of the few natural wingers and a phenomenal 5v5 producer whose 2 way game is vastly under-rated and improving (see last week’s tournament). Lots of players will be playing out of position on this team up front.
    Counterpoint 2 – I would have taken Hall over Giroux, not Duchene or Marchand. Giroux is coming off hip and abdominal surgeries and might not be fully recovered.
    Counterpoint 3 – (admittedly the weakest of my counterpoints) Hall has proven international chemistry with Crosby

    P.K I really can’t explain. Who replicates his skill-set? And why is he consistently overlooked by Hockey Canada?

    Seriously though, how did Team USA pass over Johnson?

    That said it’s a great team and I am sure they’re going to win the tournament. I understand why Hall was passed over but as a fan of the Oilers as well as the player, I am disappointed for him.

    I will just be cheering for the young guns and the Finns this time around. The Finns have been my international #2 for a long time so that’s nothing new. The kids look like they’re going to be fast and fun to watch. I think they’ll make some noise.

  156. Caramel Batman says:

    Hall had no chance to make the roster. None. I thought Perry would be in before him.

    Now the fact that he and Perry were left off for Brad Marchand is ridiculous. These people have no idea what they are doing.

    That said, they are a million miles better at this than the rubes running Team USA. How the fuck you leave off Phil Kessel and Tyler Johnson while having Abdelkader and Callahan on the team is beyond intelligibility.

    I’ll say it again. Hockey professionals are grossly incompetent. Indeed, there is nothing professional about them. They have absolutely no idea what they are doing.

  157. G Money says:

    kevin: Is it 2 shots on goal, or 2 shots toward the goal, or does it matter?

    If I recall correctly, sh% from Shots to Corsi drops by about 25%.

    So WG’s 13 goals becomes 9 or 10 goals.

    Note that this isn’t a goals against, it’s a goals differential i.e. this quantification of playing a ‘typical’ LHD on the right results in 9 or 10 goals as some combination of fewer goals scored and more goals scored against.

  158. Rondo says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Didn’t know Perry is on the PK. You need to build a team not an AllStar team.

  159. kinger_OIL says:

    I’m on my phone. Boyle was the wrong guy I will put in the right one.

    – many two L’s can and always have play effective D together end of story

    – RH LH is optimal yes but if sub optimal is less expensive and allows to address other things you do it

    – a L L D combo works often.

    – it is not 3 ld rd pairings or bust.

    – it is wrong to suggest otherwise.

  160. Professor Q says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Hall had no chance to make the roster.None.I thought Perry would be in before him.

    Now the fact that he and Perry were left off for Brad Marchand is ridiculous.These people have no idea what they are doing.

    That said, they are a million miles better at this than the rubes running Team USA.How the fuck you leave off Phil Kessel and Tyler Johnson while having Abdelkader and Callahan on the team is beyond intelligibility.

    I’ll say it again.Hockey professionals are grossly incompetent.Indeed, there is nothing professional about them.They have absolutely no idea what they are doing.

    How did he have no chance?

    Did you even watch the most recent tournament?

    And Perry deserves to be left off after his actions.

  161. Rondo says:

    stephen sheps,

    I guess Giroux is a C and great at face-offs.

  162. Caramel Batman says:

    Hahaha, Jack Johnson is on USA. Who is running that clown show? Their roster is a parody of hockey management stereotypes.

    And Giroux on Team Canada is unnecessarily stupid, while Marchand is a horrible human being and a good but not great hockey player. There is no planet on earth where he is better than Hall or Perry.

    If I’m Hall I’m not surprised, but I don’t see why he bothers to go the World championships when they so clearly don’t respect him. I like Duchene as a player, but I don’t see why Duchene is always on these teams and Hall is not. Would anyone trade Hall for Duchene straight up?

  163. Caramel Batman says:

    Rondo:
    Caramel Batman,

    Didn’t know Perryis on the PK.You need to build a team not an AllStar team.

    That’s simply not true. Any of these guys can penalty kill. They are the best players in the world. You need to find four guys out of the 12 who can do it. I think they’ll manage. Trying to build the best team by so some secret recipe of teamness is exactly the wrong way to build a team.

    The best team is the team with the best players. Always. So take the best players. Always.

    This isn’t rocket science.

  164. Caramel Batman says:

    Professor Q: How did he have no chance?

    Did you even watch the most recent tournament?

    And Perry deserves to be left off after his actions.

    He had no chance because the people who run Team Canada don’t like him. Listen to the media. They don’t think for themselves. The way they think of Hall is the way the executives they talk to think about Hall.

    What did Perry do?

  165. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Going to be very different cheering against Canada, and for the same team as most flames fans. I’d love to see a group of rag tag teens and young 20s beat the odds and win it. Defence is somewhat underwhelming and I’d take Galchenyuk over Drouin any day of the week, but they have Connor!!

    Very happy for RNH. Will definitely be invested in this now.

  166. Professor Q says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Yes, I know. Unfortunately. Even when a lot of Oilers personnel run Team Canada.

    I don’t know, maybe being a dirty and terrible person, and trying to take out an 18 year old because he’s jealous?

  167. LadiesloveSmid says:

    If Taylor Hall was a “winner” he’d be on the team.

    Just a selfish guy that hits top 10 in scoring at 20 & 21 by feeding himself he puck from behind his own goal line because no one has done it for him. If they fix the damn D this summer, Hockey Canada is gonna eat their own shit. I’m a spiteful **** when it comes to these things, but I’m cheering for NA and against Canada

  168. Wolfie says:

    Rondo:
    Wolfie,

    Marchant and Giroux took Hall’s spot

    Giroux had a bad year. Marchand….. Whatever.

    Hall is a top 5 LW in the NHL. Probably top 3 with Benn and Ovechkin ahead. Ovechkin doesn’t play for Canada.

    Reminiscent of Rob Zamuner in Nagano.

  169. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo:
    stephen sheps,

    I guess Giroux is a C and great at face-offs.

    So are Toews, Jumbo, Geztlaf, Tavares and the best of them al when it comes to taking faceoffs, my favourite player in the NHL Patrice Bergeron.

    In a way, you kind of made my point for me – Hall being an actual winger and all.

    But as I said, it’s a great team and I am not complaining about Hall’s omission – I do get it – but I am disappointed for him and think he should be there.

    P.K not making the team is what makes me actually angry.

  170. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    I presume a classic case of enjoying the process more than the result.

    Yes, but the result it wonderful.

    As a Prairie family fish usually isn’t eaten more than 1.5 times a week and I got a lot of fish.

  171. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy: Yes, but the result it wonderful.

    As a Prairie family fish usually isn’t eaten more than 1.5 times a week and I got a lot of fish.

    Would you ship any of that fish to America? I can’t get good west coast fish to save my life down here…

  172. Rondo says:

    stephen sheps,

    Maybe Hall is just a high risk player like Subban and against the best you can’t get away with it as much.

  173. Woodguy says:

    G Money: If I recall correctly, sh% from Shots to Corsi drops by about 25%.

    So WG’s 13 goals becomes 9 or 10 goals.

    Note that this isn’t a goals against, it’s a goals differential i.e. this quantification of playing a ‘typical’ LHD on the right results in 9 or 10 goals as some combination of fewer goals scored and more goals scored against.

    Ducey said shots, so I assumed shots.

  174. Younger Oil says:

    To me, Hall and Subban’s omissions from the team show that the management were trying to get a team of “team players” rather than the best players possible.

    Not saying that it is a good decision, or the correct evaluation of the players, but it seems as if that was their thought process.

    I seem to remember it being similar for the last couple of Olympic squads, and it worked well with them.

  175. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo,

    ok, I can buy that. It seems a bit of a tired argument, but it’s certainly a reasonable and believable one, especially in the eyes of hockey management types. Armstrong especially seems more risk-averse in his main gig’s roster construction, so yeah, I can believe that explanation.

    I don’t have to like it though… 😉

  176. Rondo says:

    stephen sheps,

    I’m only guessing.

  177. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo,

    that makes two of us.

    all good

    just didn’t want to seem like I was being dismissive of your point of view

  178. bendelson says:

    stephen sheps,

    Cheering for Finland or really just Korpikoski?

  179. stephen sheps says:

    bendelson:
    stephen sheps,

    Cheering for Finland or really just Korpikoski?

    I forgot Korpikoski made the team. Can I cheer for them while hoping for a non-contact related injury to Korpse preventing him from playing in the tournament and starting the year on LTIR?

  180. bendelson says:

    stephen sheps: I forgot Korpikoski made the team. Can I cheer for them while still hoping for a non-contact related injury to Korpse preventing him from playing in the tournament and starting the year on LTIR?

    You could, yes.
    I will be cheering for him to do well enough to garner a 6th Rd pick from Columbis this fall…
    If we buy him out in advance, then I will simply cheer for him b/c he is Korpikoski!!!

  181. stephen sheps says:

    bendelson: You could, yes.
    I will be cheering for him to do well enough to garner a 6th Rd pick from Columbis this fall…
    If we buy him out in advance, then I will simply cheer for him b/c he is Korpikoski!!!

    Your plan lacks the passive-aggressive cruelty of mine, which is actually out of character for me anyway. I like it better. 6th round pick it is!

    I’ve been cheering for the Finns for a long time, and not just because the Oilers are better when they have good Finnish players. While traveling in Europe 6 or 7 years ago, I found myself in Prague and became friends with a couple of Finns. It happened to be during the WHC that spring (the tournament was in Germany that year), so we went and watched the Czechs vs. Finns at a little pub. The Finns lost a close game, but I really enjoyed watching international hockey with people from other nations and decided that the Finns would be my #2 team from that point forward.

  182. stevezie says:

    I’m pretty shocked Perry is off the team, but i endorse it. The gap between him and whoever took his spot is not huge and that play on Laine is the dirtiest thing i saw all season. I think.

    But then how do you take Marchand?

    I’m not as apoplectic as some (I assume Hbomb is talking to a hostage negotiator as we speak); it was a close call. But I’d take Hall over Marchand. Their career averages make it clear.

    Why is Carter an automatic?

    And who is picking team USA?

  183. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    I don’t get why it is so hard for some of you to understand. Taylor Hall, P.K. Subban and Phil Kessel for that matter are defensive liabilities who make a lot of questionable plays with the puck. If you want to play for Team Canada you better be able to play a 200 foot game. Why is that so hard to understand?

    They have lots of guys who can score like Hall AND bring something else to the table. ie. faceoffs, physical play, PK, experience. Claude Giroux for example has the most points in the NHL over the last 5 years AND was 1 of 4 players going into playoffs who averaged 1 PPG in playoffs AND is fantastic faceoff guy AND can check the opposing team’s center AND Penalty kill.

    Taylor Hall can push the river.

    Maybe, just maybe you are a bias fan who thinks your guy is better than he is? Or you are an armchair GM who thinks he knows more than Team Canada brass. Either way, you’re wrong.

  184. Gret99zky says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    “I’ll be perfectly honest with you,” he says. “We won a Stanley Cup in Boston and we didn’t use analytics.” Jim Benning to Ed Willes of The Province

    In fairness, it can be argued that Edmonton is the cradle of analytics and has won exactly jack shit (other than the lottery) for over a decade.

    In fact, the Edmonton Oilers organization has become the measuring stick by which failure at the NHL level is measured.

  185. Oilspill says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    “I’ll be perfectly honest with you,” he says. “We won a Stanley Cup in Boston and we didn’t use analytics.” Jim Benning to Ed Willes of The Province

    Remember analytics are the sprinkles on the cake. I rather doubt any team makes major decisions from a numbers sheet. It may be used to break a tie. They are better for fantasy leagues.

  186. "Steve Smith" says:

    bendelson: Since when does a top gunn like yourself feel the need to explain your comments to the masses?

    The easy answer is “since it provided an opportunity to mock somebody else’s mangling of the English language, particularly when the person in question richly deserved to be mocked, if not necessarily for his mangling of the English language”.

    And remember that not every reader here has built up the dossier on me from Google stalking that you evidently have, so some readers may require some additional context.

  187. v4ance says:

    Gret99zky: In fairness, it can be argued that Edmonton is the cradle of analytics and has won exactly jack shit (other than the lottery) for over a decade.

    In fact, the Edmonton Oilers organization has become the measuring stick by which failure at the NHL level is measured.

    Edmonton as a community has fostered a strong group of advanced thinkers who have found new ways of objectively looking at the game and at specific players using the numbers.

    Edmonton OILERS as an organization have been out of the playoffs due to bad management, bad scouting and bad developmental systems.

    Having good analysts in the city does nothing to affect the performance of the team.

    This really is one of the dumbest comparisons I’ve seen on here in a while.

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