THE OILERS AND DRAFT RE-ENTRIES

The Edmonton Oilers had a very poor 2014 Entry draft—after choosing wisely in the first (Leon Draisaitl) and four (William Lagesson). One of the players drafted that weekend in 2014—Keven Bouchard—will re-enter the draft if he goes unsigned by June 1.

This sort of thing happens a lot with all NHL teams—Edmonton chose not to sign Marco Roy and Jackson Houck in 2013—but it does point out a missed opportunity. Early picks, like Roy who was a late second rounder, indicate a clear miss—an entry-level deal is a fairly low bar for a bona fide prospect.

  • No. 23 overall Connor Bleackley. Drafted by the Colorado Avalanche, since traded to the Arizona Coyotes. Playing in the Memorial Cup and looking good, he is a 1996 birthday so would re-enter the draft.
  • No. 71 overall Connor Chatham. A physical winger who has battled some injuries during his junior career. He is 6.02, 225 and did not explode offensively in any season after he was drafted. He is a 1995 birthday, believe he becomes a free agent.
  • No. 75 overall Alex Peters. Highly-regarded two-way defender suffered a knee injury during his junior career and has not posted the kind of numbers that suggest progress.
  • No. 76 overall Elvis Merzlikins. Goalie with impressive numbers (.922SP this past season with Lugano of the Swiss League). He would be a free agent.
  • No. 85 overall Keegan Iverson. A big winger with some skill. Physical player. He would be a player I think Edmonton would value. Draft re-entry.
  • No. 93 overall Nick Magyar. A bigger winger who scored well in his draft season but who has not developed, partly due to injury. Re-entry.
  • No. 96 overall Josh Wesley. This is Glen’s boy, defensive defender. He is 6.03, 201 and a righty. Re-entry.
  • No. 101 overall Nelson Nogier. Big, mobile stay at home defender. He is 6.03, 209 a righty. Re-entry.
  • No. 102 overall Alexis Vanier. Weird skill set. Massive guy. Skilled. He is a free agent (I believe). 6.05, 227.
  • No. 104 overall Ryan Mantha. Huge defender who can handle the puck. Good bloodlines.He is RH, 6.05, 225 and he might hold some promise. Re-entry.
  • No. 107 overall Julien Pelletier. Skill forward, good hands. Looked like a tweener on draft day, but scored 27 goals this year. Re-entry.
  • No. 114 overall Alexis Pepin. Enormous two-way winger with some skill. I thought the Oilers might be on him draft day. Re-entry.
  • No. 115 overall Brent Moran. Goalie did not improve by the numbers after being selected. Draft re-entry.
  • No. 112 overall Richard Nejezchelb. Big winger who did not sign with the Rangers turned pro by signing with Hartford and will play with Litvinov HC of the Czech league this season.
  • No. 124 overall Jaedon Descheneau. Small and brilliant forward scored 81 points in 2014-15 but missed the 2015-16 season due to a shoulder injury. Free agent.
  • No. 131 overall Ryan Rehill. Genuinely surprised he is not yet signed and suspect something happens this weekend. Huge two-way D, free agent.
  • No. 139 overall Tanner Faith. Big defensive defender. Free agent.
  • No. 150 overall Alec Dillon. Giant goalie, played for the Oil Kings this year. Re-entry.
  • No. 154 overall Aaron Haydon. A big defensive defender, some injuries over his junior career. Re-entry.
  • No. 156 overall Kyle Pettit. A big two-way center who appears to be shy offensively. Re-entry.
  • No. 157 overall Jake Marchment. An impressive checking center, righty has been associated with the Oilers in trade rumors. Free agent.
  • No. 161 overall Brandon Baddock. Big forward who played for the Oil Kings, bet money Bob Green likes him. Free agent. Future Condor?
  • No. 162 overall Aaron Irving. Two-way defenseman, saw him good and had him No. 70 on draft day. You need scouts. Re-entry.
  • No. 169 overall Reid Duke. A skill center, had an uneven Memorial Cup but he can post offense. Re-entry.
  • No. 170 overall Cristiano DiGiacinto. Agitating forward, throwback winger. Some offense. Re-entry.
  • No. 172 overall Chandler Yakimowicz. He would be a power forward if he could gather some offense. Re-entry.
  • No. 173 overall Jaden Lindo. Interesting player, rugged with some skill. Re-entry.
  • No. 179 overall Ivan Nalimov. He is a good goalie, in KHL now and had a .908 save percentage last season. Free agent.
  • No. 180 overall Matthew Mistele. Surprised he is not signed, some impressive offense and good size. Free agent.
  • No. 183 overall Keven Bouchard. Shy in his junior career.
  • No. 187 overall Kyle Jenkins. Two-way D appears to have no dominant skill. Re-entry.
  • No. 193 overall Edgars Kulda. The third unsigned Oil King, something of a local legend and now in the KHL.
  • No. 195 overall Patrick Sanvido. Giant stay-at-home D, re-entry.
  • No. 197 overall Olivier Leblanc. Skill defenseman, quite small, re-entry.
  • No. 200 overall Lukas Sutter. Played in the ECHL this past season. Free agent
  • No. 201 overall Alexander Kadeykin. Huge winger, KHL currently. Free agent.
  • No. 210 overall Jacob Middleton. A nice range of skills, surprised he didn’t sign. Re-entry.

My goodness a lot of kids didn’t get contracts. That suggests it was a poor draft year in 2014. My thanks to Brock Otten, OHL Prospects blog, WHL From Above and Elite Prospects for clarity and reference information.

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44 Responses to "THE OILERS AND DRAFT RE-ENTRIES"

  1. Professor Q says:

    Hoping for Bear very soon!

  2. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    “I’ll be perfectly honest with you,” he says. “We won a Stanley Cup in Boston and we didn’t use analytics.” Jim Benning to Ed Willes of The Province

    This was mentioned in the last thread. So do we have reason to worry?

    If I am Taylor Hall I am pissed. Yeah, he had a bad end to the 2016 season. But it’s clear the stink of the Oilers and Ruff benching him years ago has stuck.

    Meanwhile Seguin is in no sweat.

    Not here to debate who deserves what. Team Canada is always going to have some tough snubs.

    Coaches also make bad choices. No one this year is as bad a choice as Rob Zamuner.

    But this one has to sting Hall.

  3. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    “I’ll be perfectly honest with you,” he says. “We won a Stanley Cup in Boston and we didn’t use analytics.” Jim Benning to Ed Willes of The Province

    This was mentioned in the last thread. So do we have reason to worry?

    If I am Taylor Hall I am pissed. Yeah, he had a bad end to the 2016 season. But it’s clear the stink of the Oilers and Ruff benching him years ago has stuck.

    Meanwhile Seguin is in no sweat.

    Not here to debate who deserves what. Team Canada is always going to have some tough snubs.

    Coaches also make bad choices. No one this year is as bad a choice as Rob Zamuner.

    But this one has to sting Hall.

    No. Chiarelli and the Bruins used analytics in Boston, Benning is just framing issues.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Even if they didn’t. Oh No, someone didnt use Corsi 5 years ago to evaluate their players !!!. Advanced stats have come a long way in the last 5 years. Now you can get worthwhile information out of analytics as long as you use it right ( It is dangerous in the wrong hands, you know who you are), 5 years ago it helped once in a while but sometime clouded the picture even more, especially defensemen. Just because you use advanced stats doesn’t mean you make the right decisions, see Chias predecessors here for further details

  5. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: No. Chiarelli and the Bruins used analytics in Boston, Benning is just framing issues.

    Okay. Phew. Just checking!

  6. G Money says:

    leadfarmer: It is dangerous in the wrong hands, you know who you are

    DAMMIT, MY JIG IS UP!

    Curse you Leadfarmer, curse you!

  7. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    LT,
    Benning says they didn’t use analytics in Boston to win their Stanley Cup in 2011.
    Has Chiarelli said otherwise?

  8. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Lowetide,

    LT,
    Benning says they didn’t use analytics in Boston to win their Stanley Cup in 2011.
    Has Chiarelli said otherwise?

    PJ Oil posted this on twitter, I could find other examples, given time

    http://bruins.nhl.com/club/blogpostprint.htm?id=30196

  9. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    Wow, that was quick!
    Thanks!

  10. Centre of attention says:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/world-cup-of-hockey-snubs-phil-kessel-pk-subban-galchenyuk-klingberg-kris-letang-canada-usa-sweden-russia-radulov/

    An “educated and non-biased” article on snubs, snubs Taylor Hall by not even mentioning him. They then proceed to throw shade at Chiarelli and Nugent-Hopkins. Sportsnet is a debacle and should go bankrupt & light on fire simultaneously.

  11. Chachi says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Lowetide,

    LT,
    Benning says they didn’t use analytics in Boston to win their Stanley Cup in 2011.
    Has Chiarelli said otherwise?

    It is possible I suppose that Benning did not know they were using analytics in Boston. Maybe he fell asleep whenever they discussed them at meetings and they just let him snooze away while they took care of the big boy work?

  12. jonrmcleod says:

    Chachi,

    This explanation pleases me.

  13. blainer says:

    Centre of attention:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/world-cup-of-hockey-snubs-phil-kessel-pk-subban-galchenyuk-klingberg-kris-letang-canada-usa-sweden-russia-radulov/

    An “educated and non-biased” article on snubs, snubs Taylor Hall by not even mentioning him. They then proceed to throw shade at Chiarelli and Nugent-Hopkins. Sportsnet is a debacle and should go bankrupt & light on fire simultaneously.

    Ok..I am looking at the Taylor Hall snub as a glass half full. No one will have to listen to this possible future in game development..

    This just in.. Taylor Hall’s Shoulder injury with his collision with Ovechkin is season ending. He is also unlikely to return even if the oilers make the playoffs.

    So maybe we are lucky he never made the team and the hockey gords are trying to make us whole for all the injuries from last year… just sayin..

  14. kinger_OIL says:

    – OK I found the example that meets what I and a few have been exploring:

    Muzzin (L) Martinez (L) CF%55.6%
    Muzzin (L) Doughty (R) CF59.6%

    – Again I don’t know which one plays their off-wing, but clearly 2 L can play well together

    – Muzzin Doughty vs Martinez gets to the root of what I’m trying to ascertain. With Doughty the pairing is better. Doughty is paid $7MM. Martinez (Muzzin’s primary partner), $4MM, Muzzin $4MM (actually $1MM this year, but 4 going forward)

    – So here’s my point: is the extra 4 corsi worth spending an extra $3MM? It’s optimal, to be sure, but clearly the L L for a cost of $8MM @ 55.6 is quite good. Is $11MM for 4 extra CF worth it?

    – You can get effective top-4 L L pairings cheaper albeit less optimal than the ideal L R pairing.

    – It’s not 3 L-R pairings or bust. It just isn’t

  15. Centre of attention says:

    blainer,

    Knowing our luck, Dubinsky & Kessler take a chunk out of Connor/Nuge and put em’ out. That team USA is just low-down dirty.

  16. Chachi says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Chachi,

    This explanation pleases me.

    I can also imagine him waking up once a week after the analytics meeting with the word “Loser” written in permanent ink on his forehead and his tie frozen in a block of ice in the freezer.

  17. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Keep it going man!

    Look long enough and cherry pick the data enough, I’m sure you’ll come up with a few more samples to support your opinion. Make sure you ignore the ten contradictory data points for every one that you find though, that’s very important when you go looking for data to support your preconceived opinion.

    Meanwhile for the rest of you, an interesting factoid: I looked at the 4 Stanley Semi Finalists, plus a handful of other top teams (WSH, CHI, LAK) in the league this year.

    EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM ran two L-R pairings as their primary pairings. (I took the pairings from the top two most common pairings for the entire season for each team, per LeftWingLock)

    I did not look at the third pairings, but I suspect if they had same hand pairings, that’s where they were.

    If you don’t believe the fancystats, but believe in mimicking what good teams do: good teams do not run same hand pairings in their top 4.

    (It also means that if most or many off hand pairings are the third pairing, the league wide differentials calculated for on hand vs off hand pairings likely understate the differentials for off hand pairings, since third pairings pretty much always get a rel Corsi boost because of quality of competition)

  18. G Money says:

    *** SPAM ALERT ***

    Oh yeah, I forgot to mention. All the talented writers were busy, so I wrote the article to express appropriate amounts of outrage at the Team Canada roster selection. In my usually sarcastic fashion.

    The Gorge of Eternal Peril waits for any who read it.

    http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/team-canada-wait/

    *** END SPAM ***

  19. Lowetide says:

    Players I would hope Edmonton has interest in include Connor Bleackley, Nelson Nogier, Jaedon Descheneau, Ryan Rehill.

  20. Skeeziks says:

    It would do my heart good to see Team North America beat Team Canada. When you look at the raw talent on that squad it is something to behold.

  21. G Money says:

    Lowetide:
    Players I would hope Edmonton has interest in include Connor Bleackley, Nelson Nogier, Jaedon Descheneau, Ryan Rehill.

    Yeah, but if Edmonton drafts them, you know that in short order our development system will turn them into

    Connor Blech!!! Ley
    Nelson No Gear
    Jae Don’t Descheneau
    Ryan Retread Over the Hill

  22. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    I’ve watched Bleackley a lot, my folks are Rebs super fans so they’ve seen him develop over the past few years. Injuries have plagued him, but he’s a legit driver on a deep team with a Sutter coach. He could end up as a very good 2C in a couple year, Right handed as well.

    Phoenix once again buying low and likely going to sign and simmer in the AHL. Good teams are patient…..and don’t give up 1st rounders due to freak injuries.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    kinger_OIL,

    The curse of statistical analysis is you can make statistics show whatever the heck you are trying to prove whether you are doing sports stats or medical research. Jon Oliver has a good episode on the crapitude of research out there a few weeks ago that is a very interesting take btw.

    Also please don’t post just bland Corsi to evaluate a player in a vacuum. It is almost useless. You need to at least list the Corsi compared to teammates and their level of competition. As your example goes I really doubt Muzzin Martinez faced the same difficulty as Muzzin Doughty, so while in a vacuum (even if the vacuum is cherry picked in the first place to prove a point) the numbers are close, they may actually be far apart if adjusted for quality of competition.

    Anyway Some players play better on their offside then others so making blanket statements on every defensemen is meaningless although ideally having each player play the appropriate side is ideal.

  24. kinger_OIL says:

    leadfarmer,

    – ah never mind. You guys won’t listen to anything other than what you want to with what I’m trying to say, and rather than discuss the point I’m trying to make, you discredit.

    – Muzzin Martinez played 834 minutes together and posted a healthy 56 CF%. With Doughty, they posted a 59CF with 292 minutes together.

    – That 2 L can play together and logged big top-4 minutes. And Doughty is a way better D.

    – Clearly a L L combo is just not something you would consider, but many teams do: Carry on!

  25. square_wheels says:

    I think Fleury has played the entire 3rd period – Rebs can’t create much though.

    The player that i think will emerge as a solid bottom 6 winger is Polei. And of course he’s a Wings pick.

  26. kinger_OIL says:

    – How about this to move on: what an awesome “poem”. Kids are going to be ok:

    https://www.facebook.com/HarvardEducation/videos/10153893399331387/

  27. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL,

    No worries, Kinger, we’ll ignore the subject and you’re still my pal!

  28. Mr DeBakey says:

    No. 96 overall John Wesley. This is Glen’s boy, defensive defender. He is 6.03, 201 and a righty. Re-entry.

    I hate to be Mister Poopypants, but its Josh Wesley.
    John Who?

  29. Caramel Batman says:

    kinger_OIL:
    leadfarmer,

    – ah never mind.You guys won’t listen to anything other than what you want to with what I’m trying to say, and rather than discuss the point I’m trying to make, you discredit.

    – Muzzin Martinez played 834 minutes together and posted a healthy 56 CF%.With Doughty, they posted a 59CF with 292 minutes together.

    –That 2 L can play together and logged big top-4 minutes.And Doughty is a way better D.

    – Clearly a L L combo is just not something you would consider, but many teams do:Carry on!

    Last year Joey Votto hit .331 against lefties and .306 against righties.

    Conclusion A: Platoon matchups don’t matter in baseball.
    Conclusion B: You don’t know what you are talking about.

  30. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Centre of attention:
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/world-cup-of-hockey-snubs-phil-kessel-pk-subban-galchenyuk-klingberg-kris-letang-canada-usa-sweden-russia-radulov/

    An “educated and non-biased” article on snubs, snubs Taylor Hall by not even mentioning him. They then proceed to throw shade at Chiarelli and Nugent-Hopkins. Sportsnet is a debacle and should go bankrupt & light on fire simultaneously.

    Fucking garbage cheap shot at RNH, who has scored 43 more points than anyone else on Team North America World Police.

  31. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: Meanwhile for the rest of you, an interesting factoid: I looked at the 4 Stanley Semi Finalists, plus a handful of other top teams (WSH, **CHI**, LAK) in the league this year.

    EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM ran two L-R pairings as their primary pairings.

    Hjalmarsson and Keith played almost 900 minutes together. Each was the other’s most common partner by far.

    So please don’t say “every single one of them” and please, please don’t shout it at us. It’s not true.

  32. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Fucking garbage cheap shot at RNH, who has scored 43 more points than anyone else on Team North America World Police.

    I don’t understand how Nuge is anywhere close to being in the same category as Muzzin and Callahan…that was uncalled for.

  33. Caramel Batman says:

    Looking at that article, honestly every team is being run by moron. The stupidity is so rampant I have to assume that the decisions, like all hockey decisions, were political.

    Team USA takes the cake though. Then I see that Tortorella is coaching the team. What a jackass. I know who I am cheering against.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    J.T. Miller, Drouin, and 0 NHL games Matthews are on the team but they’re complaining about RNH?

  35. kinger_OIL says:

    Caramel Batman: Last year Joey Votto hit .331 against lefties and .306 against righties.

    Conclusion A: Platoon matchups don’t matter in baseball.
    Conclusion B: You don’t know what you are talking about.

    Conclusion C: You don/t understand how the world works. Sure platoon matters, but given his hitting average agains righties, how much do we pay for a righty specialist, given there won’t be much drop-off

    – Conclusion D: you don’t have to make decisions that involve allocating limited resources to get to an end objective, which means some risk management and budgeting.

    It really is amazing that one side of this group can’t get over the fact what while LH RH is ideal, LH LH, although sub-optimal, is a solution, because of marginal utility and supply demand. Baffles me.

  36. OF17 says:

    We all know two things that are at least as important as ability when it comes to national teams. 1) How good is your club team? and 2) Do you have a stink about you?

    Marchand is on the team because he plays for the Bruins, who are still riding the 2011 and 2013 runs when it comes to reputation. That makes him a winner and a leader and all sorts of things. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine Hall would’ve made the team had he been a Bruin and Marchand an Oiler.

    Then there’s the question of stink. Two very good performances at the most recent WC haven’t removed the Lindy Ruff smell from Hall’s reputation. Subban, perhaps the best defenseman in the league, has as much stink about him as any, and what do you know, he’s left off. I thought the Pittsburgh year would’ve been enough to get the Toronto stink off of Kessel, but apparently not.

    This works in reverse too, as we can see with guys like Callahan and Weber. Korpikoski too for that matter. That isn’t to say those first two are bad players, far from it, but given the choice between Weber and Subban today, my choice would be easy.

    Worst part of it all is we’re going to have to read articles about how big of a step forward Hall has taken once the Oilers actually make the playoffs. That’s going to be infuriating.

  37. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Pardon, I went back to the LWL page that showed the combos (it’s still in my browser history), and it shows the top two pairings as Hjal/Van Riemsdyk and Keith/Seabrook.

    http://leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/chicago-blackhawks/?team=chicago-blackhawks&strength=EV&gametype=10

    The error on my part is that I had an off by one error on the game type selection, and apparently selected ‘Last 10 Games’ rather than ‘All Season’. (all the others looked correct except Anaheim, but the L/R L/R in that case didn’t change when I reverified it with the All Season setting. Though I don’t think I mentioned ANA in my list of teams).

    Of course, there also remains the question of whether or not the L/L pairings are as effective as the L/R pairings. For Chicago, the numbers look like this:

    Keith (L) /Hjalmarsson (L) 891 min 51.5%
    Hjalmarsson (L) / Van Riemsdyk (R) 303 54.6%
    Keith (L) / Seabrook (R) 116 min 60.1%

    So even the one good team that apparently did have an L/L pairing in the top 4 during the regular season was significantly less capable with that pairing than with other pairings. No doubt QoC plays a part, though its hard to see any Hjalmarsson pairing or Keith/Seabrook not facing Top 4 comp.

    Perhaps that’s why they went away from the L/L pairing as the losses mounted during the playoffs?

    In any case, you’re spot on Bruce – thanks for pointing out my error, and clearly my entire argument is invalidated by this example.

  38. pts2pndr says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Hjalmarsson and Keith played almost 900 minutes together. Each was the other’s most common partner by far.

    So please don’t say “every single one of them” and please, please don’t shout it at us. It’s not true.

    I respect what u are saying however gmoney has a very valid point! You can nit pick either way but having played the game there is a definite advantage with a right left combination. It is extremely easy to lift a backhand over the glass rather than a forehand off the glass to give but one example. A forehand pass is much easier than a back hand pass etc! I brought this up about 11 months ago on this site and got ripped immediately! If you break it down to the very basics g money is correct. There are always exceptions but we should defer to the optimum! We are basing this on that are we not?

  39. VOR says:

    I don’t want to give anybody a hard time but there is both recency bias and sample size issues in play in the discussion of handiness.All those true believers in left/rightcombos should riddle themselves this, what team had four future hall of fame defenders playing at the same time? The first clue is the four were all lefties. The second clue is they were a dynastic team and won four consecutive Stanley Cups with minimal right handed help. Lest that seems like cherry picking according to Hockey Reference, Coffey, Huddy, Lowe, Jackson, Gregg, Muni, and Smith were all lefties. Apparently it is possible to win a Stanley Cup or two with lefty/lefty pairs.

  40. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    I don’t want to give anybody a hard time but there is both recency bias and sample size issues in play in the discussion of handiness.All those true believers in left/rightcombos should riddle themselves this, what team had four future hall of fame defenders playing at the same time? The first clue is the four were all lefties. The second clue is they were a dynastic team and won four consecutive Stanley Cups with minimal right handed help. Lest that seems like cherry picking according to Hockey Reference, Coffey, Huddy, Lowe, Jackson, Gregg, Muni, and Smith were all lefties. Apparently it is possible to win a Stanley Cup or two with lefty/lefty pairs.

    I have looked into lefty-righty and talked to some very bright people, and it is real. We can argue about the ridiculous lengths some of the posts on this blog have gone to make the point, but I do believe the evidence is there.

    The 1980s was a long time ago, and the very shot period of time defensemen have to make a decision in the modern game appears to have impacted this area of the game.

  41. VOR says:

    Lowetide,

    LT, no offence but I would love to know what evidence you have that defencemen have less time to make decisions now than they did in the 1980s never mind that it has negatively impacted defencemen playing their wrong hand. Before you assume I am an idiot consider part of how long you have to effectively react is a function of how quickly you read the play and how quickly your muscles respond to signals from your brain. Players today have received better coaching from younger ages than was typical in the 1980s thus there is some likelihood they will recognize patterns faster and make mental decisions quicker than in the 1980s. There is a sort of arms race, forwards on the forecheck are bigger and get there faster but the defencemen in every way are better prepared than earlier generations. They are far better trained and conditioned and can react faster than did the players in the 1980s. If defencemen were getting poorer with their reaction times versus forwards goal scoring would be up not down. Thus, I see no reason to assume defencemen feel any more pressure today than they did in the 70s and 80s.

    Let’s assume for a moment you are right. Every year in the NHL there are at least 180 primary pairs of defence. We have what, eight years of Corsi data we could use. Thus we could run this study against a minimum of 1480 defence pairings. Hardly an insurmountable task and we would know for sure if in your modern NHL handiness effects possession metrics in a way that alters game outcomes. Now of course there would be a number of challenges, lack of proper pairing data etc, for example, endless combinations, no clue how Corsi differences between defence pairs effects game outcomes, quality of team and competition impacts, etc. The minute we consider a larger study the clearer it becomes the methodological problems are significant. I won’t bore you with the gory details but if a detailed study of a problem is daunting the certainty you can take away from a small slice of the problem study is reduced. My point is the certainty you just evinced isn’t supported by a robust analysis of a clearly defined set of adequate size and thus, again no offence, is seriously underwhelming.

    The NHL being a cap strangled league also brings into play issues like dollar per corsi event. Even if a L/L paring produces slightly poorer Corsi outcomes in absolute terms it might produce better Relative Corsi per dollar outcomes. You can substitute any possession metric you like and all the same questions remain. How does the metric measured effect on ice outcomes? Does it? Is there a point where cheap wrong side help is better than expensive help playing on the correct side.

    What appalled me and led to my sarcasm was the certainty and intellectual bullying being displayed in support of a hypothesis, an intriguing one, but a hypothesis none the less, one in need of rigorous testing against large data sets. As for smart people say so, I would suggest you read some science history to see smart people making idiotic mistakes. Or consider companies like Enron or CDOs, weapons of mass financial destruction. Smart people make dumb mistakes all the time. A foolish obsession with handiness may well be an example.

  42. raventalon40 says:

    Any Vladimir Tkachev style loopholes for the Oilers to sign any of these guys to camp for a tryout? Assuming there’s some way to do that with the appropriate outcome (Oilers retain player) instead of the other outcome (Oilers get a slap on the wrist because of CBA rules)

  43. seanjohn667 says:

    Oilers had a bad draft!! ha!!!

    and in other news, the sun rose in the east.

    they haven’t had a good draft since 1980, when they got Coffee, Kurri and Moog!!!

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